Lots Of Pain To Go Around In California
The Record Searchlight reports from California. “Nearly 80 lots in Deer Creek Manor are to be auctioned Nov. 21 on the Shasta County Courthouse steps. While the spike in home foreclosures, they jumped 562 percent in Shasta County in the first three quarters of 2007 from a year ago, has been well documented, this is the first large-scale residential development facing a foreclosure since the late 1990s, said Mike Van Bockern, who conducts public foreclosure auctions in Shasta County.”
“‘The whole real estate game is about timing. They missed the market,’ Tom Shuck of Real Estate 1 in Redding said Thursday. ‘When it (housing market) shut down, it flat shut down.’”
“To date, one house has been built in Deer Creek Manor. The 2,100-square-foot home, which isn’t facing foreclosure, was built by contractor Les Reese Jr., who also owns the lot, and is listed for $499,000.”
“‘I think it’s a bad time for everybody,’ Reese said. ‘Other than that, I really don’t have much to say.’”
The Mountain Enterprise. “Kathy Flick’s job is to compile all the notices of default that are recorded with Kern County each month when people stop paying their mortgages. Flick predicts the rate of foreclosures in the Mountain Communities is apt to be far lower than that occurring in Bakersfield because there were not ‘overnight subdivisions’ being built here.”
“‘Its extremely bad right now,’ Flick said. ‘We are running 50 defaults per day. There are 500 defaults a week since last December. It just keeps going on and on and on. Most of it I truly believe were the loan products that asked for nothing down and now they have gigantic payments they have to come up with.’”
“Local realtors may disagree. ‘Our rate may be far lower than Bakersfield, but it is much higher than any of the years I have been selling up here since 1991,’ commented Gary Wilson of Mountain Properties. ‘I guess you could say ‘on aggregate’ that their pain is more than ours, but we have lots of pain to go around.’”
“Wilson reports the impact that foreclosures, have on the market.”
“‘The bank wants to sell them as quickly as possible so they price them lower than similar homes. There is no emotion in it from the bank and they have not even seen these homes. They are just files—assets to be sold in a timely manner Some asset manager may have a thousand of these to sell around the country, so they have a system,’ he said.”
“They have an appraisal, look at market trends, and price accordingly. They don’t want to be overpriced in a declining market and follow the market down. They under price them right away. If they don’t sell in 30 days, they lower the price again and again and continue to do so until the property changes hands. That’s the system,’ Wilson said.”
From KSBY. “To help people on the Central Coast avoid foreclosures, Peoples’ Self Help Housing has teamed up with Mariner Mortgage to offer free seminars to struggling homeowners.”
“‘Some people were not educated enough to realize what an interest only or a 100 percent loan to value meant at the time. They were eager to get into a home,’ explained Annette Montoya of Peoples’ Self Help Housing.”
“Loan officer David Wilson admits education levels were low in some cases, but he says many hands got us into the mess we are in now.”
“‘It’s hard to pinpoint who the bad guy is, so to speak. A lot of the foreclosures, if you actually look into them, are investment properties,’ he said.”
The Orange County Register. “Mid-October housing stats from DataQuick show that just four of 83 ZIP codes in Orange County (Orange 92865, Tustin 92782, Newport Beach 92661 and Irvine 92612) had year-over-year gains in home purchases in the 22 business days ended Oct. 16.”
“Overall, in the latest October count by DataQuick, sales are down 45.5% vs. a year ago. Pricing remains weak, too. The latest read on median selling prices, $572,000, is equal to pricing seen in early 2005.”
The Press Enterprise. “New-home sales continued to plummet in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in September, and almost one of every three people– and maybe more — who initially agreed to buy a home in Riverside County ended up cancelling the transaction.”
“New home sales fell 37.2 percent to 617 in Riverside County in September, down from 983 in the same month in 2006, according to a report.”
“The jarring part of this report is…there were 617 net sales in Riverside County in September, but sellers thought they had 928 before the buyer backed out. Those numbers mean one in three sales is being cancelled.”
“However, Borre Winckel, executive vice president of the Riverside County chapter of the Building Industry Association, said he thinks that figure is low, based on what he has observed.”
“‘The cancellation rate seems to be north of 60 percent,’ Winckel said. ‘It’s the curse of the lack of consumer confidence.’”
“According to DataQuick Information Systems, the median price for all homes in Inland Southern California in September was about 11 percent lower than a year ago. Sales prices have been sliding month-to-month since April.”
“‘They go home and hear on KFI Radio that another community down the street will be knocking the price down,’ Winckel said.” “Usually builders put up between 200,000 and 220,000 homes a year in California, but next year only 80,000 are expected to be built, he said.”
“‘Everyone thinks 2008 will be a miserable year,’ Winckel said.”
The Daily Press. “Empty lots languishing in partially completed subdivisions have become a common sight in local cities as the Victor Valley feels the effects of the national housing market slump.”
“During sample periods in 2006 and 2007 examined by the Daily Press, new building permits for single-family homes decreased by 53 to 83 percent in Apple Valley, Hesperia and Victorville.”
“Jon Roberts, city manager for Victorville, said the city finally had enough time to begin reorganizing its permit process 30 days ago.”
“‘When the economy and development were going so strong, it was such a volume coming in that we couldn’t get it through the process quick enough,’ he said.”
The Daily Bulletin. “The High Desert and San Gorgonio Pass - two regions beyond the fringes of the Inland Empire - have much in common. The Joshua tree-filled cities of the Mojave Desert and the chaparral towns of the Pass region are both traversed by interstates and railroads used by commuters and freight haulers. Both areas have been hit by the current housing market slowdown.”
“Beaumont, in the San Gorgonio Pass, is but one example of a town where the housing market has cooled off this year. Median home prices in the city dipped from $372,000 in August 2006 to $365,000 this August, according to DataQuick.”
“David Dillon, economic development director for the city, said that housing trend might not be such a bad thing, since a slower pace of residential growth could allow for new residents to be absorbed into the local economy before the next housing boom.”
“‘It helps catch up the jobs and housing imbalance,’ he said.”
“Usually builders put up between 200,000 and 220,000 homes a year in California, but next year only 80,000 are expected to be built, he said.”
Still 80,000 too many…
Now what is a cut in 120,000 to 140,000 homes doing for employment?
At some point Cali will wake up to the missing workforce…
Got popcorn?
Neil
Agreed, but you can bet that BLS will massage the loss out of its jobs report, probably through the birth/death model.
When will the J6P sheeple wake up to this crap and start braying for change?
Assuming these are documented jobs to begin with.
It really does not matter if the workers are undocumented. There will be no pass through of moneys to quickie marts, Dunkin Donuts or local vendors. Job losses and small company closings will accelerate as will foreclosures.
But Hoz,
Job losses to illegals don’t matter as much to our economy as job losses to citizens. That’s because illegals tend to send their disposable income back to Mexico. So Mexico will probably share the pain of illegal US job losses.
Somewhat true, but if half of what they earn is spent in the US, and that money goes away so do the jobs that the undocumented supported.
Our friend Pen posted on Framingham, MA that was having businesses close up because the undocumented workers went back to Brazil. The well - to - do were upset because they could not find someone to paint their ceilings etc. The same is happening in California, but because of the size of the state, it is not as readily apparent as in a small, tight community like Framingham.
And you have to remember that almost half of the job growth from 2000 to 2006 was to foreign born individuals, but when a foreign born individual is layed off or fired it does not go into the statistics. (BLS)
“Are undocumented immigrants counted in the surveys?
Neither the establishment nor household survey is designed to identify the legal status of workers. Thus, while it is likely that both surveys include at least some undocumented immigrants, it is not possible to determine how many are counted in either survey. The household survey does include questions about whether respondents were born outside the United States. Data from these questions show that foreign-born workers accounted for about 15 percent of the labor force in 2006 and about 47 percent of the net increase in the labor force from 2000 to 2006.”
The same is happening in California, but because of the size of the state, it is not as readily apparent as in a small, tight community like Framingham.
Oh, God, could this be true?? Please, please, pleeeeaze, oh, please be true
.
Harm,
It’s very true and has been happening for years now. The undocumented in CA began moving into the midwest about 5 yrs ago. We’ve been able to capture it in data for the last 2 or 3.
I don’t know what percentage are migrating back across the board.
I see Mexicans:working in the tobacco fields outside Hartford, CT; building homes in devlopments; walking around.
While CT has lots of immigrants, Mexicans were somewhat unusual. Not anymore.
While it is nothing like the SW, we DO have illegals all over New England.
And GDP.
Also, I realize that CA is a huge state but I’m having trouble wrapping my head around 200K homes built in a year. Yikes.
Well, there are over 36 million people here. That’s more than SC, TN, NC, GA, and AL ( basically most of the South) combined. That is A LOT of freakin’ people. 200,000 homes is a drop in the bucket. The fact that on my drive home every day, 5 lanes of freeway going both ways is absolutely jam-packed with never-ending cars is reason enough to see how overcrowded the cities are here.
On the other hand, vast swaths of the state are extremely rural.
I get it. It’s just the thought of that many homes, EVERY YEAR being built…
Maybe not, it’s the same Mexican workforce knocking up houses in Arizona.
Not much of direct impact on employment; most of the workers were illegal. It won’t show up in BLS stats.
But it will show up in consumer spending stats.
It is already showing up in Guadalajara, Oaxaca etc., - many returning workers and fewer Western Union moneygrams. Some one should look at Mexican BLS data for complimentarity.
If you know where to find those figures, let me know. About 2 dozen people here would love to have that data.
My brother is a SoCal contractor and his right hand man for the last couple of years has been an illegal alien from Guatemala. A few days ago, my bro gave him a wake up call for work and the guy was gone. Work was sporadic here, so he headed home. By the way, I’m curious how illegal aliens get back over the border. I’m assuming they don’t get a free pass through the border??
Haven’t you ever walked across the border to Mexico?
Juarez, San Luis, Agua Prieta, Nogales, Tijuana; I’ve just walked across. No papers asked for, no questions from Mexican authorities, no lines; just a walk across the border.
Agreed. I walked across from California side into Tijuana a few years ago. No one there to check your papers or be concerned if you want to take advantage of entitlements. Mexico has no entitlements (how stupid of Americans, we stop entitlements, we stop being concerned about who comes across our border).
I would be like Curly Bill on “Tombstone,” the movie. I would watch illegals returning to Mexico pass by with their worldy possessions and say “Well?…Bye!”
I think they moved back in with mom and dad.
Please pass the popcorn.
However, if they don’t build at the same rate as before, won’t it slow down the price decline. I say to the developers & builders: ‘Build as many more as you can. Don’t stop now. Thanks.’
I agree. Even now, the Bay Area suffers from a severe lack of supply. In fact, the new building here only really picked up at the height of the boom. Unfortunately, the two types of housing built were either huge Mcmansions for over a cool million, or lofts. Nothing in between and no middle income housing. Heck- no middle income prices either. It was all ( and still) insanely overpriced.
The BA needs way, way more new housing units. Otherwise, prices will come down here, but not enough to make anything cheap, or perhaps even affordable by any means.
Hey Jetson Boy:
What you’re saying is just not true. The population in the Bay Area is lower than it was at the peak of the dot.com boom, but the number of “units” available is way higher. That means that house prices today should be lower than they were in 1999, not higher.
House prices here will fall another 40-45%.
Yes, the fundamentals you’re mentioning are true.But the fact remains that within the Bay Area, there is a severe supply problem with SFH’s in particular. Just look at the laws in Berkeley, Marin, SF, Alameda, and many other BA towns. They are rank with anti-growth/controlled growth measures. I see very few homes in any of these cities, and of the few, most-as mentioned- are lofts or huge mansions built out of town. Yes- I’d love to see prices fall 40%. But the supply problem has me wondering if this will be possible given the fact that over 50% of the area rents and perhaps as much are just waiting for houses to get cheaper.
I say to you and anyone else living in what might be the tiny pockets unaffected by the Great Housing Bust, to just get the heck out of there. Who wants it? Those places aren’t that desirable or hip anymore.
But I too agree with Big V, the Bay area will get hammered. But even then, there’s no reason to stay.
Jet,
I remember how tight the rental market was in SF in the late 80s. People would line up outside a property with applications in hand, letter of reference and fat deposits. This was in the Sunset and in the lower Haight!. Not even in the nicer areas.
Finding a place in SF is freakishly easier now, just freakishly expensive. The only people I know who still live there and have families are either getting their parents to foot the bill or they get free housing (a friend is THE groundskeeper at the presido and he gets free housing). The people I knew who bought in places like the Sunset in 99, have all sold and fled.
SF killed it’s middle class.
….That’s because there’s actually no more middle class
Mary Lee, you wouldn’t by any chance be from Redondo Beach? (If not, forget that I asked. Either you’re the Mary Lee I know, or else you’re not.)
Beaumont’s median price should be in the 200K range, and that’s based on there being a lot more people earning $50,000 there than I suspect there are.
“David Dillon, economic development director for the city, said that housing trend might not be such a bad thing, since a slower pace of residential growth could allow for new residents to be absorbed into the local economy before the next housing boom.”
“‘It helps catch up the jobs and housing imbalance,’ he said.”
why do I think his next statement would be “and economic stuff like that”??
Joshua tree country, indeed.
he’ll get a raise
“Joshua tree country, indeed.”
Ah, to have instant retribution at your fingertips.
“The Joshua tree-filled cities…”
House Joshua tree-filled FBs…
Yeah, every cloud has a silver lining. Bulls can turn any bad situation into a good thing.
Jas
“Overall, in the latest October count by DataQuick, sales are down 45.5% vs. a year ago. Pricing remains weak, too. The latest read on median selling prices, $572,000, is equal to pricing seen in early 2005.”
At some point between then and now, prices in The O.C. reached the top of the parabolic arc.
Looks like it’s all downhill from he-e-e-e-ere!
Wake me up when we get to 1999 levels. Then I will pay attention.
Dow gains 110 points in the last 40 minutes to finish up for the day : )… I wonder if anyone saw value and bought?
C is holding an emergency board meeting this weekend, announced just after the bell. Write downs may be on the agenda. Yo, whussup C?
Prince on way out?
The CEO formerly known as Prince?
The Prince formerly known as CEO.
From Nouriel Roubini’s blog
“…If you are interested in understanding where the economy is going you should rather look at the ongoing disaster in credit markets – with a severe and spreading credit crunch - that will get uglier in the next few months as financial institutions are forced to mark to market massive – still unrecorded – losses on trillions of mortgages and related MBS and CDO tranches. With the ABX index for BBB- now down to the 20s and even the AAA tranches now down from par to 79 there are hundreds of billions of losses that no financial institutions has even started to account for. When allegedly AAA tranches of CDO trade at 79 cents on the dollar you know you have a massive and severe financial nightmare ahead. So, instead of the NFP report look daily at what the ABX indices are telling you about what is happening the economy and the financial sector.”
Citi as well as every major bank holds that crap. I suspect it is to determine “how much to liquidate and how much more to write off and how much will the Federal Reserve loan against.”
As long as they can keep up the pretense of a “credit crunch” the banks will be fine. Once the reality is recognized that it is a question of solvency, then there are problems.
Prince offers resignation, WSJ.
Getting out before the sh!t storm.
Holy $hit, I had to go check wsj to make sure it was true.
The whole real estate game is about timing. They missed the market,’ Tom Shuck of Real Estate 1 in Redding said Thursday
Well nice of you to say that now. What were you telling buyers in 2005, Mr. Shmuck?
“The whole real estate game is about timing.”
Game? Isn’t this all about a “home,” “quality of life” and a long term investment?
Timing? Has the recent NAR sound bite been that buyers should NOT try to time the market?
This is America. Everything’s a game. Politics, the stock market, ultimate fighting, you name it.
I love the change in tone.
Let me add to that “timing.” Its a really poor time to buy now!
But in a few years… new story.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Wait a minute, I don’t understand this whole “timing” statement. Just a few months ago, wasn’t the NAR telling everyone that you “can’t time the market”?
Chuckle…
True. They think you cannot time the market.
But apparently, you can.
Got popcorn?
Neil
What was the classic line in Airplane ? It’s a bad time, week to stop smoking, sniffing glue ? Help me out here!
lol…
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.
How can real estate be a matter of timing? It never goes down.
Funny. I recall that, up ’till a few months ago, the real estate mantra was that “you can’t time the market”. Now we’re moving on to “The whole real estate game is about timing”? I realize that it was a different shill who was used to advanced the first argument, but all of their mouths are controlled by the same central transponder.
Real estate timing yep the best time to buy was ten years ago and the best time to sell was 2005.
And the best time to sell if you haven’t already done so, is now.
And to sell at a price 10% below the comps.
Pulte and Horton cut to junk status by S&P…
Nov 2 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor’s on Friday cuts its ratings on D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Pulte Homes Inc (PHM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) into junk territory, citing the vulnerability of the home builders to the deteriorating housing market and macroeconomic conditions.
Both builders were cut one notch to “BB-plus,” one level below investment grade, from “BBB-minus.” The outlook for both companies is negative, indicating an additional cut is likely over the next two years.
Assuming of course that either one survives those two years.
This AAA BBB BB- system confuses me. Why can’t they just use A B C D +/- like they do in high school and college?
oh, wait, then regular joes would know what the richie boys mean, and we can’t be having any of that…
Although it would be priceless for the high-falutin’ suits at Merrill to justify an “F” to the hoi polloi.
Or numbers like 1, 2, 3 etc., that are easy to understand. I would any day pick 572 and 693 over ABb– and CbA++. If FICO scores can be 3 digit numbers why can’t credit ratings be? They are measuring the same quantity right?
Actually it is not measuring the same quantity as we recently observed. AAA = junk = ccc–, etc. The rating means nothing anymore. So, let them use any stsem they want, nobody cares/
I actually thank my lucky stars that USC Law experimented with a cockamamie 65-90 grade scale while I was there. Since nobody really knows what a 79 translated to, my … gloriously average GPA didn’t hurt me as much as it might have.
I suspect the AAA through B grading system employs some of the same logic.
$11.5 mln
D.R. Horton DHI.N Donald Tomnitz $12.4 mln $13.1 mln
*KB Home KBH.N Jeffrey Mezger $3.1 mln $6.1 mln
Lennar Corp LEN.N Stuart Miller $5.7 mln $22.5 mln
MDC Holdings MDC.N Larry Mizel $10.6 mln $21.5 mln
Pulte Homes PHM.N Richard Dugas $6.8 mln $7.3 mln
Ryland Group RYL.N R. Chad Dreier $15.7 mln $17.5 mln
Toll Brothers TOL.N Robert Toll $18.8 mln $28.6 mln
Sorry Tom but what is the jist of this. Please educate me.
Jist = gist. Looks like I need an education more than I thought.
I didn’t copy in the headers. It has CEO PAY from last year and this year. This year is to the right and last year is to the right. Some things did not copy over and it looks like one got cut off.
Look at the pay. While the builders lose a TON of money, you hardly see a reduction in pay.
You mean last year is to the left?
This year’s is to the left, last year’s is to the right.
“Who is on first”
CEOs raking in millions per year while the blue collar grunts get kicked to the curb. Sickening. I know y’all love the idea of a completely free market…but is this okay?
You’re generalizing, Houseless. I’m sickened, too. Don’t say you’re more sickened than I am. I’m just as sickened as you are.
“I’m sorry, too, Dmitri… I’m very sorry… All right, you’re sorrier than I am, but I am sorry as well… I am as sorry as you are, Dmitri! Don’t say that you’re more sorry than I am, because I’m capable of being just as sorry as you are… So we’re both sorry, all right?… All right.”
lol….Dr. Strangelove.
Guess you’re right about me generalizing sweeny t. I did not mean to get high and mighty.
I’m just conflicted about “free market” philosophy (I think capitalism has many merits) and my bleeding heart.
Pikers all…….Merrill Lynch lost 8.2 billion, and their CEO (almost ex) takes home 161+ million $ in consolation pay….
It’s the people’s fault for investing in these crooked companies and the mutual funds that invest in them. There needs to be a shareholder revolt and lawsuits/votes to remove the board members
“Local realtors may disagree. ‘Our rate may be far lower than Bakersfield, but it is much higher than any of the years I have been selling up here since 1991,’ commented Gary Wilson of Mountain Properties. ‘I guess you could say ‘on aggregate’ that their pain is more than ours, but we have lots of pain to go around.’”
But Pain can be POSITIVE.
It can teach young kids not to touch hot stoves again and IDIOT ADULTS to keep their claws and beaks OFF hot properties
Mixed hopes for investors as housing market signs go to amber
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea6df07e-8949-11dc-b52e-0000779fd2ac.html
i cant believe how these specuvestors cling on to hope?!? i say ride it all the way down!
Bullshit beyond belief. “Now is a great time to buy. C’mon sheep, come on over to the sheering table.”
“Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said it expected average house price growth to slow to 1 per cent next year. ”
What? All the numbers that I’ve seen have clearly shown shrinkage, not growth, in house prices for the nation and for CA over the past 1-2 years. Who pays these people, anyway?
They’re talking about England… they’re coming late to the party….
Oh, I see. I didn’t know the FT was a British paper. Now I see they’re on London time.
Oh, well. Good thing the rest of the world is turning out to be just as stupid as us.
Wait a minute…you did not know the FT was English? Ok, now, both FT and The Econmist are English. Also, both have some of the best reporting there is. Big V…you kinda lost any remaining credibility.
And a lot of the time Council is a good sign its British.
“…clearly shown shrinkage.”
Take it from someone who knows, shrinkage ain’t funny.
IF they are getting 500 defaults per week, they are not doing better than Bakersfield! WE are at 150-200 per week, keep dreaming mountain folk. You area is royaled screwed!!
I meant 50 for them.
We have metro population of 400,000 they have about 25,000. Do the math realtors, uhh, nevermind…
Realtors ™ do math? ROTFLMAO.
They know FUD and that’s it.
Got popcorn?
Neil
There was 218 just today in one county of the 6-county Detroit metro area.
Notes on the housing market.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/cafesandiego/
“A house can be a nice investment, but it is more importantly your home. Eventually, it will build equity.”
I couldn’t get any further than this stupid line. This article is so poorly written that I doubt a third grader would pass remedial English with this blather.
I guess WAMU has paid off Cuomo cause all of a sudden it’s the over valued appraisals = appraiser fault for the sub-prime mess. I have not seen the story posted on this blog. I figured there are so many other stories Ben can’t keep up.. WAMU new what they were doing come on!! There solution will be that the appraisers will have to increase there C.E. hours so the machine can get more $$$. Why can’t people just do the right thing in this world why does everyone have to screw everyone over all the time. At least the Sox won but I didn’t get any furniture out of the deal.
Don’t worry, someone will sue WaMu. They can pay off the government all they want, but unless they can pay off the judge and jury too, then they are wasting their money.
Nah, Cuomo is climbing the ladder. He’ll pressure the appraiser to give info to go after WaMu. Standard prosecutorial technique.
I totally agree. This is the thin edge of the wedge.
I was just looking at properties (about 2,500 sq. ft.) in and around Encinitas on Zillow.com and noticed that about 1/2 of the properties didn’t have a picture of the house. Why is this? Could it be that someone has so many houses to sell and they’re so busy posting them, that they don’t have time to take pictures of at least the front of the house. Also, most of these homes were not new construction.
Hey, this afternoon I surveyed a neighborhood of homes in Encinitas Ranch, just to see how these million plus McMansions were fairing. Saw only about 6 For Sale signs, two of them by Owner. Only one had a flyer available, but no price listed other than “Priced Below Market Value.” Checked out the realtor’s website, he’s asking $924,950 for a 2,600 sq. foot home; the Zillow price was $984,876, so there’s your “below market value” e.” Here’s a mind-blowing Zillow map of the wish prices in this particular tract home development: http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.htm?addrstrthood=646+Alex+Way&citystatezip=92024&GOButton=GO
‘Our rate may be far lower than Bakersfield, but it is much higher than any of the years I have been selling up here since 1991,’ commented Gary Wilson of Mountain Properties. ‘I guess you could say ‘on aggregate’ that their pain is more than ours, but we have lots of pain to go around.’”
- Translation - It’s different here.
“I think it’s a bad time for everybody. Other than that, I really don’t have much to say.”
“Sometimes when people go to Vietnam, they go home to their mommas without any legs. Sometimes they don’t go home at all. That’s a bad thing. That’s all I have to say about that.”
Was that in Forrest Gump?
When the hippies unplugged the sound so you couldn’t hear what Gump was saying?
Yes… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forrest_Gump
“At a protest in Washington, Gump meets Abbie Hoffman and makes a speech which is unheard due to technical problems (a military police officer pulls the microphone cords off the speakers and sound system). The viewers are taunted by having the lead protester break down emotionally following Gump’s conclusion. According to Tom Hanks, Gump says, ‘Sometimes when people go to Vietnam, they go home to their mommas without any legs. Sometimes they don’t go home at all. That’s a bad thing. That’s all I have to say about that.’”
Nicely said. Flippers eating s**t is not a bad time it is comeuppance for greedy idiots. If people had perspective they wouldn’t have gotten themselves into this mess in the first place.
I think it’s time you changed your name, premature. Looks like you’ve grown up now.
“If people had perspective they wouldn’t have gotten themselves into this mess in the first place. ”
But most sheeple don’t and won’t.
Perspective requires motivation, patience and good critical thinking skills. So much easier to channel surf between american idol and the shopping channel while wolfing-down ding dongs and soda.
FB: “Perspective? f**k that! Where do I sign?”
DOC
“It’s a bad time for everybody” [said a RE contractor]
Nonsense. Neil and ex-nnv are having a really nice time. So am I. So is NYCityBoy. So is txchick57. PB/GS is his usual scholarly self. I bet Ben Jones is having a nice time too. Housing Wizard, arroyogrande, LAIG, AzSlim, jbunniii, we are all having a fine old time Mister Contractor, thank you very much.
Me too, me too. Jumping up and down from her chair.
Yes, I’m pissing on myself, I’m having so much fun.
“I think you’re all f_cked in the head. We’re ten hours from the f_cking fun park and you want to bail out. Well I’ll tell you something. This is no longer a vacation. It’s a quest. It’s a quest for fun. I’m gonna have fun and you’re gonna have fun. We’re all gonna have so much f_cking fun we’ll need plastic surgeory to remove our godamn smiles. You’ll be whistling ‘Zip-A-Dee Doo-Dah’ out of you’re assholes! I gotta be crazy! I’m on a pilgrimage to see a moose!”
Here’s some amusement for ya:
http://www.luxist.com/2007/11/02/the-slumping-real-estate-market-forces-another-yacht-up-for-sale/
He sees the sagging real estate market as a good way to reinvest? I see another jail sentence in the a$$hole’s lifetime.
WTF!
Yatch: 23.5 Mil
House: 21 M
Matha….. Swallowed the rest….. er.
http://www.luxist.com/2007/07/28/mortgage-man-decides-to-sell-yacht-and-house/
Ron Paul after the FED cut rates again.
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press2007/pr103107.htm
Washington, DC - Congressman Ron Paul, ranking member of the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy (DIMP), and a nationally recognized expert on monetary policy, issued the following statement regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision to again lower interest rates:
“ America ’s economic difficulties, especially the problems in the housing market, are the direct result of the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. In the past year, we have seen MZM grow by 12%, yet the Fed continues to inflate the money supply. While prices for gold, oil, and staple commodities continue to rise, the purchasing power of the dollar for all Americans continues to fall. Inflationary monetary policies created the problems in the economy we are seeing, and these problems will be made worse, not better, by more inflation. Today’s action by the Fed is very bad news for American workers and retirees who are about to get hit with yet another jump in prices.
Make no mistake, the problems faced by the American people are not caused by unscrupulous mortgage brokers or the rising price of oil. These are symptoms of an economic disease caused by a spendthrift Congress enabled by loose monetary policy. Too many pundits praise the weak dollar as benefiting exporters, but they fail to see the harm done to thrifty, hard-working Americans. Rather than continuing to pursue a policy of easy credit and increasing debt, we need to return to a sound monetary system.”
Lone, sane voice. But makes no difference to our dumb citizenry…
My Uncle heard this and was scared. He says, “you can’t do that”
I said, “so you like Ron Paul?”
He says, “No, he’s too different, no one would go for that.”
I said, “You mean no one would go for doing the right thing?”
If yard signs are any indication, Ron Paul has quite a bit of support here in Tucson. And there’s a city council/mayoral election next Tuesday.
In neighborhoods around the university, the Ron signs are right up there with the others.
This dude’s been in Washington 30 freakin’ years. He should have enormous power over committee appointments, spending allotments (or CUTS), etc. What the hell does he have to show for it, but the same flowery talk you or I could spew?
He doesn’t have any “power” because he refuses to play the game, and that’s the only way to acquire influence in a political environment.
Been there, done that, still doing it.
“Been there, done that, still doing it.”
Refusing to play the corporate power game, that is.
Ron Paul never learned to play the “go along to get along” Washington two-step. He never clawed and connived his way up the heap, but his integrity remains intact.
All criticism and no solution… typical politician. Other than calls for fuzzy calls for smaller government, I have yet to hear anything out of RP’s mouth that says I should vote for him.
Because, hey, the other candidates are MUCH more fiscally sound, right?
Sorry, but a Paul administration would mean little more than a green light for businesses to scam, pollute, lie and swindle as much as they’d like, as Paul would eliminate any regulatory or law enforcement authority keeping corporate power in check.
(Sure, the “market” will get around to correcting things. For housing, look for that around 2012 or so. But all this mess could have been avoided had the mortgage market been regulated to require documented proof of borrowers’ ability to make all scheduled payments on a loan, provided no change in current income.)
Granted, there’s not been much in the way of federal oversight of corporate America during my lifetime (born in the Johnson administration), but libertarianism = anarchy.
If you’re loaded with guns, ammo, clean well water and food-producing acreage, Paul’s your man. Otherwise, he just offering you a different route to the shearing table.
“All criticism and no solution…typical politician.”
I feel your pain, Mike. Ron is a good man, but that ain’t enough. We need a revolution. Peaceful or otherwise.
And I have a few plans.
The first step of Plan A is for the citizens of this country to grow some balls and vote every single “cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit” incumbent congressman out of office. Whether you vote for a Republican or a Democrat, it doesn’t matter and I don’t care. Just vote against all incumbents.
Please don’t make me pull Plan A out my ass. It’s a little bloodier…
SUPPORT YOUR LOCAL MILITIA!
here we go. The writers strike looks like it’s gonna happen. That’s 250,000 ee’s in LA county, and billions of $’s hit to our local economy.
I expect this will put heavy downward pressure on our westside / midwilshire home wishing prices.
This was this morning’s rumor:
http://www.thestreet.com/s/goldman-rumor-mill-revs-up/newsanalysis/wallstreet/10388207.html?puc=_tscfoc
It is also top news on finance.yahoo.com now. They are having the meeting. I suspect Prince is out. Who is the new CEO? Sally Krawchuk?
Are such Wall Street rumors usually true?
OK, so far we have at least Mr. Bubble coming to the next Bay Area HBB party. Who else wants to go?
Saturday, November 17th
6:00 PM
Chevy’s
2907 El Camino Real
Redwood City
I will pass this information to friends in Bay area.
Will somebody please party with Big V?
Any San Diego HBB parties ever?
Because you are the west coast capital of the housing bubble, I would FLY to SD for the party. So sorry I missed Neil’s LA party.
San Diegans have superstar bloggers! We would have a premiere with paparazzi. SD party? Yes!
I plan to be there 200711170600, but can’t guarantee it.
Shouldn’t that be 200711171800?
There was one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation during the most recent quarter, RealtyTrac said.
http://money.excite.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?news_id=ap-d8skvddo0&
“I think it’s a bad time for everybody,” Reese said. “Other than that, I really don’t have much to say.”
Beg to differ, Reese. We, the members of this blog, are just enjoying the good times exactly as we predicted.
Oops, didn’t see this when I posted the same thing several hours later (above). We are all in a party mood!
Stocks jumped today based on the report by the Labor Department that 166,000 jobs were added to the economy.
But were they really added or was it just a “guesstimate”?
http://tinyurl.com/39kgcd
secondly, what kinds of jobs were added? Probably more jobs filled at Wal-Mart and Mcdonald’s. Praise the lord!
The thing is they can’t even measure it. They really DO NOT KNOW. They just spew crap as if it’s a fact.
“And a separate survey of households, also conducted by the Labor Department, presented a very different picture of the job market. It showed that fewer Americans over all were employed in October. The labor force shrank by 211,000 jobs, and 465,000 Americans said they were no longer working.
“The slowdown in household may, on this occasion, be telling you the true story,” said Ian C. Shepherdson, the United States economist for High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm in Valhalla, N.Y. He said the 166,000 rise in payrolls “is incredibly narrow and sort of implausible.””
Buy a used, foreclosued, stucco crap box or build a house for a lot less that is better quality and built just the way I want it?
Hmmmmm
So with cheaper labor and cheaper materials, does this increase the downward pressure on homes?
OT Any word on the much-hyped Black Friday sneak preview at Wal-Mart? From what I gathered this morning at different web sites, most people posted that the deals were nothing special, and even Sears and Best Buy were matching the price on that HD-DVD player (so that the bean-eating scene from Blazing Saddles could be THAT much funnier.)
Google-News on “black friday”.. lots of hits.. seems WalMart had a few super deals but they sold out veery quickly..
It’s interesting that several retailers are starting the Christmas selling season early.. Could it be they foresee truely dismal sales figures and want to get a jump on the competition?
7 weeks of sales instead of 4.. practically doubles it..
Who here owns any CITI Bank stock?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071102/citigroup_boardmeeting.html
The avalanche has started? It looks like CITI has has someone to blame and will admit to some bad loans.
Fascinating, once you think about it. The current CEO of an enterprise has every incentive to delay disclosure of the time bombs on the balance sheets, because the fact that they got there on his watch make him look bad.
A new guy, on the other hand, has a brief window of opportunity where he can clean house, writing down as much dirty laundry as he can and blaming his predecessor for it. Ideally, he clears away enough cobwebs that he can start running the company from a fundamentally sound baseline.
I’d be interested to see how much more Merrill writes down after O’Neal’s replacement gets going. Ditto Citi, and everyone else whose chief gets the chop in the coming weeks.
“‘The whole real estate game is about timing. They missed the market,’ Tom Shuck of Real Estate 1 in Redding said Thursday. ‘When it (housing market) shut down, it flat shut down.’”
Yeah ok shill. Probably leading the charge gotta buy now before it keeps going up last year. LOL!
“However, Borre Winckel, executive vice president of the Riverside County chapter of the Building Industry Association, said he thinks that figure is low, based on what he has observed.”
“‘The cancellation rate seems to be north of 60 percent,’ Winckel said. ‘It’s the curse of the lack of consumer confidence.’”
Nice name Borre. It has very little to do with consumer confidence but the lack of toxic fools money that has dried up dope.
The Mountain Enterprise. “Kathy Flick’s job is to compile all the notices of default that are recorded with Kern County each month when people stop paying their mortgages. Flick predicts the rate of foreclosures in the Mountain Communities is apt to be far lower than that occurring in Bakersfield because there were not ‘overnight subdivisions’ being built here.”
“‘Its extremely bad right now,’ Flick said. ‘We are running 50 defaults per day. There are 500 defaults a week since last December. It just keeps going on and on and on. Most of it I truly believe were the loan products that asked for nothing down and now they have gigantic payments they have to come up with.’”
“Local realtors may disagree.
‘Our rate may be far lower than Bakersfield, but it is much higher than any of the years I have been selling up here since 1991,’ commented Gary Wilson of Mountain Properties. ‘I guess you could say ‘on aggregate’ that their pain is more than ours, but we have lots of pain to go around.’”
Realtor 1: “Dude, you’re a total noob –I’ve got 300 foreclosures in my neighborhood this week alone!”
Realtor 2: “Oh, yeah? Well, our foreclosures are sooo many, if you stacked them all end-to-end, they’d reach to the moon and back 10 times!”
I guess txchick57 was right. Broke really IS the “new black”.
Broke really IS the “new black”.
It was also observed here that folks like bragging about large sums of money, no matter if negative or positive. It makes them feel “rich” to say “I lost $300K” (even though they lost nothing with zero-down and handing it back to the bank), just like it made them feel rich when they “made 300K” by overextending themselves.
They didn’t lose their 300k though. They lost someone elses.
Dang! Someone in my closed on a house last week.
People are still buying in California!
Of course they are. Let them set the new comps. In our area if we could just get some suckers to bite on all these reduced listings, we’ll officially be down another 10%. Remember, we need idiots to drive this thing down. FB’s are good for the vultures.
Vultures are good for the neighborhoods. They clean up the dead bodies so the disease won’t spread.
I meant “In my office”
The first post was the most funny.
Charles Prince is out. Hank Greenberg is trying to oust AIG management, and the only reason Berkshire Hathaway profits were up is from their sale of petro china.
‘“Some people were not educated enough to realize what an interest only or a 100 percent loan to value meant at the time. They were eager to get into a home,’ explained Annette Montoya of Peoples’ Self Help Housing.”
“Loan officer David Wilson admits education levels were low in some cases, but he says many hands got us into the mess we are in now.”’
This my friends is why the government should not be in charge of public education! Our citizens spend 12 years of their precious youth getting an “education”, get handed a diploma, and then can’t even figure out what their loan documents say or what size house they can afford. What kind of education is that?
For the “Prices are Sticky Coming Down in California” camp, which I am a card carryin’ member, thought I’d share a little niche of homes on a private “guard gated” golf course community in Roseville, CA, that appear to be buckin’ the trend……
Morgan Creek Golf & Country Club in Roseville. Nice course, and many nice homes. When I saw an REO property “fore sale” (sorry) @ 650k, on the golf course, it sparked my interest and had to drive down from Chico to take a look. These homes were built 2004-2005.
With no appointment, the LeFantomes snuck past the guard. While there are some custom and semi-custom homes on the course, this location on the golf course is truly the oversized stucco box trac-home development, with homes ranging from 3k-5k square feet, on ¼ acre lots. Not my first pick in architectural design, but not the worst.
From what I saw, there is no good news for owners here…..
To save you the suspense, “Zillow” this REO property (9525 Pinehurst Drive - Roseville, CA), and take a gander at this little oval drive development. See a few homes for sale here do ya? Pick any property and you’ll see the taxes are about 10k/year. With West Roseville’s tax rate at 1.03, this is 900k+ sales price for every house. The bad news is homes are now listed, and NOT selling, in the upper 500k’s, with the occasional owner at the 995k “I want my money back” wishing price. Also, it looks like most of the paper gains were after 2005……?
What a nightmare. These places will sell for 400-500k at best. Either massive fraud was going on here, or this is as severe of a “real” price drop as I’ve seen in CA. Homes are now listed 400k below the same model which sold at the first of this year, and 25% of the development is for sale. By the way, two days after the visit, this REO house was dropped to 599k….. and then a few days later back up to 625k. 9235 Pinehurst Drive is the same house, also on the golf course, nicer location and nicer looking, and listed at 589k. Good luck Mr. REO……
Big V, if I was still in the Bay area I would join your HBB party. Count me in in spirit, but now geographically removed by 1100 miles. But spirit of the HBB for the Bay area is still just as strong. Hope it is a nice turnout.
“Loan officer David Wilson admits education levels were low in some cases, but he says many hands got us into the mess we are in now.”
Whose signature is on the mortgage application? That’s who bears primary responsibility. The rest are just accessories.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes3nov03,0,7824038.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel
HUGE!!! HUGE!!! HUGE!!!
Where’s LAIG, the granddaddy of them all has spoken, the fat lady has sung. the warning shot has been sounded.
Fred Sands coming out saying this is HUGE!! x 1000, L.A. has just been put on it’s back. It’s over…
Wow, I can’t believe this, this guy is L.A. Real Estate. Panic has settled in…
mrincome,
I posted this LA Times article at 3pm PST but my post got eaten. Anyway, my wife and I both work at UCLA and commute from Valencia. It would be nice to see prices in Westwood drop to where both two working professionals can afford houses in the area again. Stuff like this gives my impatience a lot of boost. Got…to…be…patient…..
You are about to be rewarded for your patience, from reading the LALAND blog it’s apparent no one has a clue in the MSM how much clout this guy has in the mind of Realtors. Him and the other guy in the room just marked L.A. real estate down to 40% of value. It’s going to get ugly from here mark my words.
That’s big alright! Can’t wait to see the effect, it”ll be interesting to see if agents actually drop listings… I gotta admit though, the biggest thought that jumped out at me while reading the article was: “Oh, great… now every hungry realtor in LA is gonna descend on the west side!”
Any dropped listings here will get scooped up quick by the zombie realtors from the valley… It’ll be like Dawn of the Dead!
I am not in the real estate trade but Fred Sands is a big name in LA real estate market. I see his signs all over town. Can’t wait to show the article to my wife who has been kind (and smart) enough to listen to my ramblings that this thing is going to be over soon. Have been waiting for almost three years after selling.
The latest read on median selling prices, $572,000, is equal to pricing seen in early 2005.”
I sincerely CANNOT believe how the price of homes in OC is still so high. Given how bad the market is being pictured, it’s truly unbelievable that the average price of a home in OC is STILL almost $600K…$600K!!! Am I the only who thinks paying $600K for a POS home in OC is too much?
What about the San Fernando Valley? When are the prices of those areas going to come to something reasonable? Crappy homes in Northridge are STILL going for over $500K….
nothing happens quickly in real estate..
Everyone who is invested will fight tooth and nail against prices dropping, from goverment to lenders to insurance companies to Wall Street to the FBs themselves.
Meanwhile, brand new buyers will enter the market and spend too much, further supporting prices.
Ultimately, prices at 10X incomes is not sustainable, but it’s gonna take years for the market to correct, imo.
only took Japan 14 years to recover
thats funny the people in US will have to wait until 2019