The Housing Bubble

The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Troy Dugan remembers when buyers snatched up Dugan Construction Inc.’s affordable homes almost as quickly as his Bradenton company could build them. But now buyers are scarce for the roughly 30 properties he has on the market, including a brand-new house that hasn’t sold in almost a year. ‘Two years ago, or any time prior to that, we would’ve sold that house right away,’ said Dugan.”

“More than 1,000 Manatee homes - or 17 percent of the market - listed for sale last week were priced at $176,000 or less, the level at which property is considered affordable in Manatee.”

“In all, more than a quarter of the roughly 5,800 homes on the MLS were in the affordable and workforce price ranges. The actual numbers likely are higher because not all homes for sale are listed on the MLS.”

“Suni Byrns, who specializes in selling older resale homes in the Bayshore area, says it has become more difficult to qualify buyers for mortgages.”

“‘I’m finding more that people, just because of their credit numbers, have too much debt-to-credit ratio,’ Byrns said. ‘It’s a lot more difficult to get a mortgage today. They (lenders) are asking for additional, additional, additional information. Even within the last week before closing, they are asking for more information.’”

“‘It depends on the credit score,’ Byrns said. ‘If it’s low, they’re going to want 20 percent down.’”

“Affordable housing advocates also strike another note of caution: What’s affordable is not always desirable. Not everyone wants to live in a condo, townhouse or villa, which account for two-thirds of the local affordable market.”

“The ranks of affordably priced residences are growing. Between Oct. 15-29, almost 100 more were added to the MLS, with many falling into the affordable range when sellers dropped their asking prices.”

“And prices for already-affordable homes are falling. Sellers lowered prices for 53 affordable houses on the MLS by as much as $29,900 during the two-week period, according to the Herald’s analysis.”

“Vickie Smalls, a local real estate agent, points to a dozen of her own clients who are prequalified. ‘They don’t want what they can afford,’ she said. ‘They’re waiting for prices to go down even more, and they’re going to keep waiting until someone says, ‘Hey guys, the real estate market’s back to normal.’”

The News Press from Florida. “Over the years, the availability of reasonably priced offerings has been as closely associated with Lehigh Acres’ housing stock as sunshine is with Florida. The residential market’s explosion and contraction over the past few years doesn’t appear to have diminished that perception.”

“Broker Kevin Williamson, who’s been involved in the real estate business in Lehigh since 1986, said housing prices in the tract range from about $80,000 for a two-bedroom, one-bathroom house with a carport to roughly $180,000 for a three- or four-bedroom home with up to a two-car garage and a pool. A year ago, those same houses might have listed for $110,000 and $210,000, respectively, he added.”

“‘It’s a good time to buy because prices are running 30 to 50 percent of what they were during the peak, two years ago,’ he said.”

“One of the agency’s listings in the tract serves as an ideal case in-point. The list price for the 1964 vintage house, which has central sewer and water and an oversized lot, is $119,900, down dramatically from the $180,000 it sold for in early 2006, Williamson said.”

“‘There are a lot of good buys, compared to Fort Myers and Cape Coral,’ said R.J. Dean, a Realtor in Fort Myers. ‘Everything is going down everywhere, but especially in Lehigh.’”

“He’s handling the listing for a 1,133 square-foot, West Jasmine Road home with three bedrooms, two bathrooms and a two-car garage. The asking price is $140,000 for the house, which was built in 2003.”

“Dean said he has seen the price of similar homes in the tract rocket upward from the $75,000 range to roughly $225,000 and back down again over the past three years. ‘They just skyrocketed and people couldn’t believe it,’ he said. ‘Now things seem like they’re finally settling down again.’”

“Despite all of the bad news about the slumping housing market, Bob Hensley said he remains confident that it will rebound by the time Marina Village, a $150 million mixed-use project at Tarpon Point Marina, is complete in 28 months.”

“‘I’ve been called crazy before,’ said Hensley. ‘I think we’re near the bottom of a business cycle and heading up.’”

“With a price range from about $700,000 to $1.5 million, the property isn’t as affected by a sluggish housing market, said Nick Cross, director of sales and marketing. Cross said properties below $500,000 are more affected.”

“‘Out here, waterfront property at a residential community like this, we have the buyers I call the ‘want to’ buyers,’ Cross said. ‘They don’t need it, but they see something they like and they want to buy it.’”

The Sun News from South Carolina. “The number of subprime mortgages in Horry County surged in recent years, and some economists and real estate experts say the risky, high-interest loans could be an extended drag on this area’s slumping real estate market.”

“‘The bottom line is that nobody knows when this will end,’ William Harrison, director of the Center for Real Estate at the University of South Carolina, said of this area’s worsening real estate slump.”

“Economists ‘are becoming more gloomy about what, if any, recovery we’re going to see’ any time soon, Harrison said.” “Subprime loans became so prevalent during the housing boom of recent years that they accounted for one out of every four home loans made in Horry County in 2006. That is nearly twice the rate of just two years earlier.”

“Now, as home prices fall, recent buyers with little or no equity are feeling a financial pinch. It is difficult to predict how bad things will get or when the tide will turn, economists say, because there is no historical comparison for the unprecedented subprime mortgage frenzy.”

“‘Mortgages are still deteriorating at an accelerating pace, and that’s scary,’ Karen Weaver, global head of securitization research at Deutsche Bank AG, told The Wall Street Journal. ‘We haven’t come near a stabilization, and we expect things to get worse,’ Weaver said.”

“There were 13,106 subprime mortgages totaling $1.6 billion originated in Horry County between 2004 and 2006, according to data gathered as part of the federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act.”

“Many subprime loans in Horry County were taken by real estate speculators who bought when housing prices were peaking over the past few years. The federal data show half of the subprime loans made last year were for homes that are not the owner’s primary residence.”

“‘Myrtle Beach is a speculator market and a favorite tool of speculators is the adjustable-rate mortgage,’ Harrison said. ‘Those mortgages are like throwing gasoline on a fire.’”

“The number of subprime mortgages in Horry County nearly tripled over a three-year period - from 2,246 loans in 2004 to 6,112 loans in 2006. The monetary risk grew even faster because the value of those mortgages more than quadrupled - from $207 million in 2004 to $870 million in 2006.”

“Harrison said the risk for many of those loans was masked by rampant fraud in the subprime market, where buyers’ incomes and financial information sometimes were falsified to get a loan approved. ‘You had unscrupulous loan originators out there who were willing to do just about anything to earn that mortgage commission,’ he said.”

“Horry County home sales through September have fallen 28.9 percent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the S.C. Association of Realtors. That is the largest decrease of any metro area in the state.”

“Experts, including Coastal Carolina University economist Don Schunk, say some of those speculators will let the homes fall into foreclosure rather than continue to make mortgage payments on property they can’t flip for a profit.”

“The subprime market created ‘a large number of folks who were fueling housing growth and sales over the past few years,’ Schunk said. ‘Those folks are now out of the market,’ he said. ‘That’s a big chunk of housing demand that’s been wiped out.’”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “It’s official: The once-hot Triangle housing market is hurting.”

“Sales of new homes declined 10.9 percent in July, August and September, the biggest drop in a year, according to residential researcher Market Opportunity Research Enterprises.”

“New home sales for the first nine months of this year are now down 9.8 percent and likely will continue declining as tighter lending rules and weak job growth further reduce demand, economists said.”

“‘For the longest time, we avoided what happened nationally because of the strength of our market, but with the mortgage and liquidity problems nationally [now], nobody dodges that,’ said Hampton Pitts, division president of Texas-based Centex Homes, one of the region’s biggest builders. ‘It’s somewhat of a wet blanket over the entire industry regardless of your market strength.’”

“The slump is affecting all company price ranges, which run from $130,000 to $700,000, Pitts said: ‘Everything is a little slower.’”

“Job growth has long propped up the Triangle’s biggest industry, but a cooling economy has slowed employment increases to a crawl. ‘It’s been cut in half,’ said Michael Walden, the N.C. State University economist.”

“The result is a drag on the Triangle’s biggest industry. New home sales make up about 40 percent of the $10.5 billion housing market, and suppliers, appliance dealers and interior decorators contribute billions more dollars to the economy. Sales have set yearly records since 2003 but began falling in late 2006.”

“‘We’ve got a good housing market here, and there’s still demand here, but people [moving here] still can’t sell their houses where they’re coming from, and job growth is down,’ said Audie Barefoot, president of one of the region’s largest home marketers.”

“‘Borrowers are now paying about 7.5 percent on jumbo loans,’ said loan officer Glen Astolfi, up a percentage point from this summer. On a $500,000 loan, that’s enough to raise monthly payments $376 to $3,496. Many potential borrowers are holding off purchases, he said.”

“‘Where I see the difference is in $500,000, $600,000 and $700,000 homes,’ Astolfi said. ‘The move up guy is not happening now.’”

The Charlotte Observer from North Carolina. “Housing sales and building permits fell in the Charlotte region during the third quarter, foreclosure filings rose and construction job growth stalled as the area shared the national housing slowdown’s pain.”

“The region’s building permits fell 22 percent, compared with the third quarter last year, said Karla Knotts, a Charlotte real estate consultant. That’s a sign of slower sales to come.”

“Foreclosure filings rose 43 percent in the area, with Mecklenburg counting the most but several nearby counties showing larger increases, according to RealtyTrac. Statewide, North Carolina saw an increase of more than 60 percent.”

“Prices on existing townhouses dropped slightly while new condos saw a steeper drop, according to reports from Chuck Graham of Newton Graham Consultants. New home sales were off more sharply than sales of existing houses although prices rose more, Graham said.”

“The slide in new home sales reflects the fall-off in building permits. In Mecklenburg County, an earlier Observer review found permits have reached 10-year lows this year.”

“Single-family houses represent the majority of permits and sales, and both were down for the quarter. But the steepest percentage drop in permits came in condos, falling 58 percent. New homes account for only about one-third of total sales, but they drive more jobs than existing home sales so a slowdown hurts more. Experts say that building 100 houses puts 284 people to work.”

“Graham said that in the last week, he’s heard of three builders cutting 20 to 30 jobs each. He declined to name the builders. He said the moves come as he’s hearing ’some fairly negative sales results.’”

“Some national and local experts, including Graham, talk of recovery beginning next year for Charlotte and the nation’s housing market. But increasingly, there is concern that might be too optimistic.”

“Graham has said he expects a bottom in the second quarter next year and a return to previous highs the following year. ‘I haven’t changed it yet, but I’m getting very nervous about it,’ he said.”