November 6, 2007

Empty And Overpriced In Florida

The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “In Palm Beach County’s new-home developments there were 755 single-family move-ins during the third quarter of this year, the fewest in more than a decade, according to MetroStudy. That’s also 52 percent fewer than the same quarter last year. There were 486 single-family home starts in Palm Beach County developments in the third quarter of this year, MetroStudy said, a 52 percent drop from the third quarter of 2006.”

“Brad Hunter, an analyst at MetroStudy, said that total new-home inventory in Palm Beach County dropped to 2,989 units in the third quarter from 3,258 units in the second quarter. The number of units under construction fell to 1,464 units in the third quarter from 1,776 in the second quarter.”

“‘I believe we’ve got the lowest prices in town,’ said Robert Smithwick, Mercedes Homes’ Treasure Coast Division president.”

“Many other local builders are offering incentives to attract buyers in what has become the worst housing slump in 16 years. Some of them are impressive indeed. Truth be told, we don’t have room to list them all in this column.”

“We see news releases from Centex Homes and DiVosta Homes on our desk, for instance. It’s a trend we expect to continue well into next year as builders seek to work off their bulging inventories homes and condos.”

The New York Times. “Based on the number of sales, the Florida real estate market as a whole has taken a huge hit this year. September sales of existing homes in Polk are down 44 percent from a year ago; building permits for new home construction are down about 36 percent.”

“‘There is more inventory in all price ranges,’ said Deborah Boza Valledor, the chief operating officer of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches.”

“More than 78,000 homes were for sale in the Miami area in August, up from 51,000 a year before, according to ZipRealty. The overhang of unsold homes helps explain why reported selling prices do not tell the whole story.”

“Sellers ‘are making concessions,’ Boza Valledor said. ‘They will offer a year’s worth of paid maintenance fees to the buyer, or they will pay for the parking space or they will throw in country club fees that might be part of the expense of buying a home in a gated community.’”

The Orlando Sentinel. “True to the ambiguity of humdrum reality, there is no black hat in this story, just a man, Neal Winnie, who may have to pass the hat if his fortunes don’t improve.”

“One day the lenders stopped giving loans to his clients. Winnie blames the media, especially TV, for hyping the bursting of the housing bubble and panicking investors.”

“The depressed housing market in Central Florida finally forced him to shut down his company, Sunquest Mortgage. How bad is the market in Central Florida? So bad that things are better in Detroit, where Winnie has another mortgage business.”

“‘I’m working in Michigan now, because I can’t get anything done here. And it’s not as if I weren’t trying,’ he said, describing a mass-marketing effort here that produced zero customers.”

“He hasn’t forgotten Rose Harkey, (who) owns a small construction company and does remodeling. ‘I’m gonna pay these guys,’ he said. ‘They’re super people. I would recommend them to anyone. They did their job, now I need to do mine.’”

“Winnie said he hopes to be back on his feet by the New Year, and plans to pay JA-RO the balance of $4,000, with interest.”

“Meanwhile, JA-RO is hanging on, getting by on remodeling jobs. ‘We can’t afford to go ahead and build spec houses now,’ Harkey said. ‘But we’re small enough that we’ll find something. We live pretty frugally. We’ll just have to slim down, that’s all.’”

The Tampa Tribune. “Once, they were dream homes, with views of the golf course, a marble-floored music room, servants’ quarters and a taste of the good life behind the gates of some of Tampa’s most posh communities.”

“Now, they sit abandoned, with overgrown lawns, leaky roofs and deep-green, algae-filled pools. They are empty and overpriced. All are in foreclosure. All were bought sight unseen by a South Florida investor who is suing his former business partners and lawyer for fraud and identity theft.”

“The five transactions took place between February and June 2006. All involved the same team of real estate agents and a broker from Florida Executive Realty. In each case, the homes were purchased by Atlantic Coast Investments, which is partially owned by Boca Raton businessman Alan Nathan, and deeded the same day to Nathan’s partners at inflated prices.”

“‘That’s what we call a standard land flip,’ said Doug Pollock, president of Information Data Services. ‘You have simultaneous closings, but the only funding is on the second transaction.’”

“Collectively, the mortgages for the five Hillsborough houses totaled $900,000 more than the sale prices for the properties.”

“Code Enforcement Director Curtis Lane lives two doors down from the Edinburgh house, which has broken windows, a neglected pool and an overgrown lawn. His department has cited the owner and is on the verge of levying hefty fines.”

“‘That’s right by my house,’ Lane said. ‘I knew there was something fishy about it. I look at that mess every day.’”

From WFTV.com “Car arson is on the rise and the motivation behind it may be changing. Investigators say arsons are typically used to torch evidence of another crime. But there is a surprising new reason Central Florida vehicles are going up in smoke.”

“‘There’s a lot of foreclosures going on right now. People can’t afford the cars they once used to be able to afford. So in order to get out of the payment they’ll burn the car,’ said Bill Newman of the Bureau of Fire and Arson.”

“‘When the local economy hits the skids, it’s not unusual to see a spark in auto arsons,’ said a spokesman. By the end of September, investigators reported 310 car arsons. That’s compared 390 for all of last year.”

The St Petersburg Times. “Why, amid a historic housing slump, is citrus grower like Joe Davis planning to develop his plump groves to make way for homes, which are withering on the vine? ‘I don’t want voters determining how I can use my land,’ said Davis of Highlands County. ‘So I’ve speeded up my plans.’”

“Call it the Florida Hometown Democracy Effect. Supporters of this so-named measure limiting growth still don’t know if they’ll collect enough signatures to get it on the November 2008 ballot. But landowners like Davis, who owns about 10,000 acres in Central Florida, aren’t taking chances.”

“They’re flooding state and local agencies with plans that would, if approved before Election Day next year, guarantee them the right to develop their land, even if the ballot measure is passed by voters.”

“In 10 counties in central and southwestern Florida, the state is reviewing major development plans that cover a total area of at least 1,000 square miles - or two-thirds the size of Rhode Island - that would skirt restrictions imposed by Hometown Democracy.”

“Most of these counties are rural and sparsely populated, where market demand for housing is entirely absent. ‘There hasn’t been a house selling in this county for a year and a half,’ said Don Hanna, a Highlands County planner.”

The Ledger. “Silver Companies is putting the brakes on its proposed 550-acre development in northwest Bartow, at least for now. And the delay will impact an elementary school the Polk County School District plans to build on the north end of the unnamed development.”

“‘We have just tabled it for now because of the market conditions,’ said Richard Tremblay, executive VP of development for Silver.”

“‘We are still committed to the project and feel very strongly about Bartow, but the market is so down,’ he said. ‘We’re going to wait for the dust to settle enough for builders to have a stronger interest in the project.’”

“Silver had planned to break ground this year on the initial 500 lots in the development. At build out, the development is projected to have 1,353 houses, 324 apartments and a commercial complex.”

“At this point, Silver is reviewing the market monthly, hoping for an upturn. ‘It’s the same all over Florida,’ he said. ‘It’s not just Bartow. We’re disappointed with the delay, but the last thing we want to do is start this project in a down market.’”




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130 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-11-06 07:53:35

‘It may be bad news for those who work in the building industry that the current housing slump has pushed construction costs — and profits — down, but this is a great opportunity for Central Florida school districts.’

‘The Sentinel reported Monday that Seminole saw the costs of similar elementary-school renovations drop nearly $3 million in two years. Orange County trimmed more than $8 million off the cost of the new Apopka High School.’

‘Retail sales in Florida have been declining since the start of the year but now are reaching levels that are starting to alarm economists. Nowhere is that pain more tangible than in Southwest Florida, where consumers who rode housing prices to stratospheric levels are now watching their life’s biggest investment fall.’

‘The downward trend in retail sales began in early 2007 and has continued every month since, said Frank Williams, an economist with the state demographic research office. ‘Every month this year through September, sales are down over the same month prior year,’ Williams said. ‘That’s true for most categories. In real terms, if you adjust for rising prices, they’d all be negative.’

‘They built it but not many came. Following the housing market slide, commercial builders continued pouring cement for offices and retail shops. Many remain vacant.’

‘Bonita Springs was hit hard with a 16.4 percent vacancy rate,’ said Gary Tasman, of Cushman & Wakefield, a global commercial real estate service firm. ‘Lee County had an overall vacancy rate of 12.4 percent. Overall, Collier County posted an 18 percent vacancy rate.’

‘Lee County non-owner occupied inventory stands at 10.9 million square feet, while Collier County accounts for about 4.1 million square feet. With 15 million square feet of inventory, the area is about 2½ years ahead of itself with commercial development, said George Vukobratovich, Welsh Companies Florida Inc. president.’

Comment by Cobradriver
2007-11-06 08:33:21

‘Retail sales in Florida have been declining since the start of the year but now are reaching levels that are starting to alarm economists. Nowhere is that pain more tangible than in Southwest Florida, where consumers who rode housing prices to stratospheric levels are now watching their life’s biggest investment fall.’

My company is in the transportation sector. Usually this time of year here in Sarasota we see a large uptick of business due to the snowbirds returning. Now thru christmas is our “busy” time. Not this year. We are offering people time off w/o pay. They keep benefits and vacation accrual. I have been here 15 years and have NEVER seen this. At least we have plenty of people who are close to retirement that love to take advantage of this offer. If this goes on thru Christmas it’s really going to start to freak me out…

It also doesn’t get reported much but the layoffs are starting to get pretty bad…

Chris

Comment by packman
2007-11-06 08:43:31

Not to worry - there’s talk that the Fed will cut rates again - so retail sales should be back and booming shortly…

/sarcasm off

Seriously though - southwest Florida has been ground zero for the housing bubble so far, with earlier and deeper price declines and such than anywhere else in the country. The question is - is S FL really worse than the rest of country, or just earlier? If the latter, which I believe, then these statements are just a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the country. So far retail hasn’t been hit *that* hard across the country - but this holiday season could bring about bad things. If this ends up being an obviously-weak sales season across most of the country - watch out below.

FWIW - my belief is that this will end up happening, and have a fair amount of shorts on the retail sector to show for it. Unfortunately that includes GOOG and APPL, to which I’ve been gritting my teeth a lot lately. They seem to be defying gravity.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-11-06 09:37:46

FL is both earlier and worse then most other areas in the country. FL got totally out of hand during the boom (both coasts, although I would argue that PBC/FTL is probably the epicenter rather then the west coast.. However, no matter which way you cut it, they are neck and neck), things were happening here that will make the lenders puke all over themselves when they realize how much worthless FL paper they hold.

FL has nothing to support 400K home prices. They don’t even have support for 300K home prices. The economy dictates a median home price of ~200K. And FL is an extremly high tax state (for those that are new; long timers have the SOH break) which further compounds the problem.

FL is going to be right up there with AZ/Vegas for the largest percent drops. I have no doubt about it.

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Comment by Tom
2007-11-06 08:44:25

But the Government report said jobs were added! Where?

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-11-06 08:56:31

I am still desperate for work, it seems like all the middle jobs are gone….you either need entry level, and they will only hire you if entry level, or you need 3-5 years doing a specific job title.

And heavens forbid if you are older looking for that foot back in the door job in your previous career,……it only goes to the clueless 22 year old these days……

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 09:25:07

I hear you. We just hired a Java programmer for our team. The guy is in his 40’s, and is pretty good. What helped him get the job is that the hiring manager worked with him in the past, which is a good thing for the new hire, as he had been unemployed for almost 1 year.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-11-06 09:03:42

Why at the government of course.

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Comment by Annette
2007-11-06 10:10:38

Tom…I keep asking myself, what sector of the economy have these jobs been added? I noticed that they have been reporting separately the decline in jobs when it comes to the housing/contruction areas.

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Comment by Annette
2007-11-06 10:13:04

Also, I have been hearing that God forbid you are a mortgage broker or anyone in that industry looking for work. You are pretty much blacklisted 1)Because of the reputation of the industry 2)The change of pay level. Employers feel how can you be happy with $15 an hour when you made $15K a month… and 3)Employers feel that as soon as things “go back to normal” (LOL) you will return to your evil ways and job…

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 10:40:22

I have been hearing that God forbid you are a mortgage broker

I would not hire a mortgage broker for fear that they will be arrested at a later date. Most mortgage brokers have very few skills required in business, let alone a formal education.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 10:33:45

But the Government report said jobs were added! Where?

Healthcare was the number one sector for adding jobs.

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Comment by dagan68
2007-11-06 11:35:23

I am a physician based in a hospital in DFW area -

I have a question - How many of the “healthcare” jobs being added are actually - the scores and scores and hundreds and thousands of nurses and other health care workers - that are being IMPORTED into this country from Africa and the Phillipines? - How is that for Job growth - That helps out all our local Joe 6 packs quite a bit - doesn’t it?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by simplesimon
2007-11-06 08:02:30

losses losses and more losses…sounds like zero tax revenue in q4, q1, q2 for us govt. doesn’t paint a rosy picture for projected govt. spending for next year.

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-11-06 08:07:52

And how long ago were the ‘experts’ telling us 1,000 people were moving to FL each month? Funny how that isn’t brought up anymore. MSM, why aren’t you reporting this curious development?

Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-06 08:15:23

Telling lies in most everything they did was ok, as long as they profited handsomely and nobody got hurt…

Newspapers, in particular

Can’t go away, soon enough…

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-11-06 08:22:30

“And how long ago were the ‘experts’ telling us 1,000 people were moving to FL each month?”

Saw that used on the Palm Beach Post site until about Dec 2006. Since then…nothing. Unfortunately for our area, the MSM keep spewing NAR’s “figures.” Median prices dropping but slowly. That’s not reality. If the reality set in that homes can be affordable in Palm Beach County with the proper research we would see some of the inventory disappear. Those who are not realistic on their prices would pull out of the market and things would begin their slow return to normal.

As long as the “median” value is being advertised and is in the $300’s the unaffordable stigma will be attached to our market keeping our non-construction economy from growing.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-11-06 09:56:35

The idea that PBC has a “plateau” at this level is just nuts. There is LAND everywhere! We are so far away from built-out that it takes an active act of denial to believe otherwise.

I tell this story all the time, but I was standing with a RE agent a few years ago in CityPlace looking at condos (to rent!). I asked her why the prices had gotten so high and she said “We are out of land in downtown”.

That would have been fine, except that where we were standing (doorstep of one of the condos) looked DIRECTLY across the street into a FULL, EMPTY city block. Like, as in, a block with just grass growing on it (no homes, no buildings, not even a parking lot, just grass).

At the time I almost thought she was joking. Then I realized how powerful denial is.

:)

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 10:46:08

We planned on moving to FL within the next 2 years, but plans have changed. I used to live there for awhile and I hate winters. However 4-5 years ago house prices were about the same per sq ft as our area, now they are triple. If I could sell here and get a similar house there for the same price, I’d do it, but there’s no way now. Plus I want to live in an area where everyone pays the same on their property taxes. Where I live the only people getting discounts are the elderly and the disabled, otherwise everyone pays the same. I wouldn’t be using the roads, or the the local and county services anymore than the guy next door, so why should I pay double and triple what he does for the same service. As to the 1000’s a month that are supposedly moving in, don’t sit around and wait. It may not happen in this decade or even in this century with house prices and taxes the way they are.

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 10:42:59

Ben, you forgot to mention that in addition that not only are 1,000 people moving to Florida each day, but Florida is running out of land.

Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 10:48:32

There’s going to be plenty of land, but it’ll be expensive to bulldoze down the rotting foreclosed houses sitting on it.

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Comment by charliegator in Gainesville, FL
2007-11-06 13:34:26

Actually, around 650 people a day die in Florida. About 240,000 a year, mostly due to natural causes. So the birth rate is still more important than new residents. However, babies don’t buy resort properties!

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-11-06 14:13:19

Every “month” ? I thought it was something crazy like 1,000 every DAY ???

 
 
Comment by WantsOut
2007-11-06 08:23:24

Speaking of tax revenue. Dad wants to put house on market. He’s 80 and it’s to much for him. Assessed 419K. My best guess he gets 340. I’m looking at several comps in the same situation.

This is in a community that is already in the midst of a financial crisis. Parents were asked (told) last year that they would have to fund the sports teams in the local public schools. What happens when the abatements come about? If you can’t run your local government now what happens when you are getting 20-30% less tax revenue? Yeah, I know raise the effective rate. That should go over real well.

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-11-06 08:40:52

Tell him to take whatever he gets then give all his kids/grandkids $11K each year tax free if he does a quick sale before dec 31st he can do this for 2007, and then jan 08.

And put the kids Grandkids $$$ is an educational account, most states require a 3 year waiting period for the old folks can get medicaid.

Then he can probably have $250K at 5% the interest alone will cover his monthly rent.

 
Comment by WantsOut
2007-11-06 09:14:23

From CR

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Monday ordered all state departments to draft plans for deep spending cuts after receiving word that California’s budget is plunging further into the red — largely because of the troubled housing market.

Economists say the state’s declining fortunes are due in large part to the shakeout in the housing market and a volatile revenue system overly reliant on income taxes.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-06 10:24:45

Hopefully, he’ll be the last actor to ever lead…

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Comment by HARM
2007-11-06 11:23:57

Hey, now. Klownifornia’s secular economic troubles ain’t 100% his fault. We have a state government dominated by corrupt Democrats in virtually every corner, and the self-centered boneheads that keep re-electing them. The problem is, people here are conditioned to wanting (and getting) something for nothing.

Your typical Klownifornian is a NIMBYists that doesn’t want “development”, especially of the working-class affordable kind, but DOES want McMansions built in every fire & mudslide-prone canyon and floodplain. He doesn’t want “growth” or “overcrowding”, but refuses to contain illegal immigration, which he considers “racist”. He decries “poverty” but refuses to “give his house away” for less than $600/sft. He decries political corruption, but refuses to demand a full accounting of tax money already being spent, or vote for a different party. He wants more government entitlements, but wants someone else to pay for it –preferably his own children and grandchildren (see Prop. 13).

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-11-06 11:53:58

TESTIFY!!!

If liberals ever really owned up to their grotesque double standards (HARM provided just a few examples), they would go stark raving mad.

 
 
Comment by packman
2007-11-06 12:44:04

Which points out that CA’s exodus from their huge budget troubles in the early 2000’s (troubles which got Gray Davis recalled - only the second such recall in U.S. history), wasn’t due to good budget planning, but rather dumb luck in the person of Mr. Alan Greenspan. Now that the bubble is bursting, guess what?

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-06 18:13:53
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-11-06 08:04:12

‘“At this point, Silver is reviewing the market monthly, hoping for an upturn.’

- Heeheehee. Keep looking Silver and you might even see the Lone Ranger. He forgot to say that Flordia will be in the tank for another 10 years….unless we give amnesty to illegals.

Comment by snake charmer
2007-11-06 08:43:06

Silver “feels very strongly about Bartow,” but that area has little to distinguish it besides phosphate tailings, supersized pickup trucks, and missed child support payments. Let me guess: the proposed subdivision name refers to Tuscany.

Comment by Les Pendens
2007-11-06 10:09:46

..

Let me guess: the proposed subdivision name refers to Tuscany.

Nah. I think its “Florida Farms” or “Southern Farms” or “Something Farms”……you get my drift.

A coupla years ago, “they” announced that they were gonna build around 10,000 new homes smack dab north of Bartow.

In the middle of nowhere. On existing pastureland / abandoned phosphate mining property.

I have been here in Winter Haven for over half my life ( I am 45 ) and I have never been able to figure out just what in the he11 10,000 new families were gonna do, in of all places, Bartow.

Bartow is in the middle of nowhere, people.

I forget though, the Baby Boomers are coming !!!

But what do I know about Real Estate..( or so I have been told ). Funny thing is, all the people doing all the talking down here never shadowed the doorway of a college classroom; and most never even finished High School.

There has been alot of misplaced wealth created during this boom. Alot of idiot dropouts made alot of money picking the low-lying fruit and shuffling fradulent paperwork around.

Alot of palms were greased down here at the government level to get these approvals for housing in the middle of nowhere….with no infrastructure plans in place to speak of other than developer promises.

Bartow doesn’t need 10,000 homes to spring up overnight.

..

 
 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-11-06 08:14:01

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071106/indymac_results.html?.v=1

IndyMac Bancorp Inc (NYSE:IMB - News), one of the largest independent U.S. mortgage lenders, on Tuesday posted a quarterly loss more than five times larger than it had projected, hurt by mounting delinquencies and a collapse in investor demand to buy its home loans.

“While this loss is substantially higher than we had been forecasting, it was clearly not unexpected” given losses elsewhere in the industry, Chief Executive Michael Perry said. “No one in the mortgage industry came away unscathed.”

I see a lawsuit. How can you forecast a loss and then have it be 5 times bigger? and then have the nerve to say it is larger than forecast but not unexpected? Is it CYA time?

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-11-06 08:15:11

Aha! The return of the Rotisserie Plan! We had fun with that one a few years ago.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/06/dude_torch_my_r.php

Comment by Vermonter
2007-11-06 08:35:34

I loved the discussion about how burning a leased SUV didn’t seem environmentally friendly. Same thread included a a LOL comment with “guidlines” for environmentally friendly criminals.

 
 
Comment by lizziebeth
2007-11-06 08:15:53

Here’s something you’ll be hearing a lot of in the near future. The Florida tax bill came and those europeans on business visas that don’t get homestead exemption are heading back. Seems everyday another family from England, Germany…are having to go back for one excuse or another. The mess just keeps getting worse! Funny thing is here in Sarasota, the realtors are really pushing for the rich foreigners to save the market. HA! Most of the europeans I know invested heavily in real estate. They are all ruined! You know it’s bad when they have to go back to England due to financial hardship here in the U.S.

Halloween was unbelievable. Last year the streets were filled with children and well lit. This year there was probably half the kids and occupied houses!

Comment by Tom
2007-11-06 09:44:27

I agree. Saw that in Sarasota myself. How you doing?

Comment by lizziebeth
2007-11-06 13:23:36

doing well! Busy with the kids and their activities! I just felt the need to post and check up on things as I personally think they are turning out worse than I ever imagined! We are renting our dream home. Came close to buying but thrilled we backed out each time!

Someone needs to do a documentary on million dollar homes in Florida sitting in limbo as the owner walks away and the bank refuses to take responsibility! Brown pools, bugs, no electricity….. Can you imagine the mold problems these homes are going to have from being shut up in Florida heat for a year! The new wave of foreclosures are the europeans walking away! As much as I love it here, I can’t help but wonder if it gets much worse if we too should leave!

 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-11-06 09:50:53

All of FL is skitozid about this..

They all scream to Boomers, Rich Forigners, Retirees, Cubans, South American Drug lords, etc, etc to save the housing market. And point to the 1000 people a day moving in as proof that the saviors are coming!! (where did that stat come from; everytime I hear it I want to vomit).

Then, on the other side, they setup a tax system to crush the new home owners, foreign drug lords, rich forieners, baby boomers, and snowbirds. New buyers in FL (especially those who cannot homestead) are taxed at 2-5X the amount of long time owners. And now we seem suprised that people do not want to buy here anymore?

How stupid are we?

Comment by Tom
2007-11-06 10:39:03

If so many are moving in then you would think the cost of a Uhaul into the state wouldbe more expensive than out of the state. So why is a Uhaul 10x the cost moving out of FL to SC than it is to move in?

$4000 to rent one on the way out. $400 to rent one on the way in.

Comment by nunya
2007-11-06 11:00:53

school enrollment in Pinellas County, the most densely populated county in FL is down - probably the biggest decline in the school system’s history (nearly 100 years). high home prices, high taxes, and high insurance have pushed families out of the St. Pete/Clearwater area.

112,520 High point for Pinellas County Schools enrollment, 2003-04

109,087 Pinellas student enrollment in 2006-07

102,801 Projected Pinellas school enrollment, 2010-11

that’s 10,000 kids less in 6 years if projections are accurate. i’d bet statewide that there’s usually a daily net *loss* of Florida residents, not 1000 new people a day.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-11-06 11:56:57

And the “U Haul index” would back you up.

 
 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-11-06 12:00:23

You’d be better off flying up to SC, rent the truck, drive down, load your sh!te, and then drive back up.

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Comment by Les Pendens
2007-11-06 08:17:27

..

“‘There’s a lot of foreclosures going on right now. People can’t afford the cars they once used to be able to afford. So in order to get out of the payment they’ll burn the car,’ said Bill Newman of the Bureau of Fire and Arson.”

This is what is sometimes known as a “Car-B-Que” here in FL.

A couple more alarming antcedotes:

1) We are in the midst of a big theft-crime wave here in Polk County. Unemployed construction workers / meth tweakers have taken to stealing outside AC units and recycling the copper for approx. $ 300.00 a pop. Polk County Sheriffs Office just formed a special “Task Force” to look into the stripping of metals, etc from the distant pastureland housing developments that the illegals threw-up around here.

2) Here’s a new one: catalytic converter theft. Tweakers prowl local boat ramps, 24 hour WalMarts, etc looking for big trucks parked in easily accesible areas. These “People Of The Night” will climb under your truck with a carbide tipped saw and saw the catalytic converter right out from under your truck in order to sell the platinum and palladium that are used as catalysts.

3) One more: Gasoline theft. You need a locking gas cap for your vehicle down here nowadays. They have taken to stealing gas in broad daylight. In one incident, we had two different sets of arrests recently where people with specially equipped trailers would pull directly into a station over the fill hatch for the underground storage tanks, open a hidden hole in the trailer floor to access the hatch, and pump out several hundred gallons at a time into storage tanks hidden in the pull-behind trailer.

They are now talking about imposing stricter measures and requiring identification and log keeping at recycling facilities statewide in order to combat the problem with the metals theft. For the gasoline theft they are recommending merchants keep the fill hatches locked at all times.

I can tell you it is getting much worse down here, especially in the last few months. 2008 will be interesting, indeed.

..

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-11-06 08:30:47

“I can tell you it is getting much worse down here, especially in the last few months. 2008 will be interesting, indeed.”

That’s right. I just caught wind of a foreclosure in my neighborhood. House was built in 2004 and would have flown off the market for $400K in 2005. Right now it’s listed at $239K which sounds like a very good deal until you see that the homeowner took everything that wasn’t bolted down and even some things that are. You’d have to put $40K and some hard work into the house to make it nice again.

 
Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 08:35:17

The “Dirty Little Secret” in Central Florida is the crime rate. It’s always been high, 3x the national average. Most people would dismiss that as just a lot of petty property crimes (car breakins, etc) from all the tourists.

But it’s not true. There are armed robberies along the 50 nightly. People get CARJACKED on Disney Property! And burglaries are rampant. Gated communities don’t help.

Comment by not a gator
2007-11-06 10:07:09

Crime is definitely on the uptick in Alachua County. GA based thieves successfully robbed cars and stores here in G’ville while the Keystone Kops lost them on the highway; meanwhile, bumbling local copycats got caught but the missing items are gone. LOTS of stickups … if you are Black and from out of town, do NOT come to Gainesville (unless you have family here). You WILL get robbed at gunpoint!

Comment by cocoa beach
2007-11-06 12:09:54

We’re seeing a few more bicycle and surfboard thefts over here in Cocoa Beach but the bicycles usually turn up at a nearby bar, just borrowed, not stolen. Not all of Florida is lost. You’ve just got to know where to look.

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Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 11:00:20

Everytime we went to Disney World, I was amazed at the violent crimes on the TV every single day. It wasn’t tourists, it was the locals, because they always gave their street names where they lived.

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-11-06 08:36:53

Good observations. Yet more reasons why firsthand accounts beat the swill of the MSM. Gee, what’s on the Yahoo! and MSN homepages today? “Top 10 SUV models” AGAIN?!?!? Wait until these types of crimes spread, which they will.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-11-06 08:38:14

What will drive the final nail in the coffin for FL is when the collective realization hits that they have the highest per capita number of assh*les in the nation down there. What else can explain the rampant disregard for personal property and explosion of theft?

Comment by snake charmer
2007-11-06 08:52:26

That I don’t agree with. I won’t argue that we’ve got the highest proportion per capita of eccentrics, but for jerks I think you need to look elsewhere.

Comment by auger-inn
2007-11-06 09:38:23

Didn’t mean to impune the whole population of FL, snake. When I see crime spike big because of a downturn in the economy I come to the conclusion that formerly law abiding folks have decided that their comfort supercedes the rule of law. They made their financial choices in life. Now they need to recede into a third world existence with grace.

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 10:51:30

I do not agree with your assumptions regarding Florida.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-11-06 20:12:27

Late to the blog again, as usual, but I’ll also take up for Florida: overall for me quality of life in Florida is slightly better than California, where I lived briefly and have visited often. Better air, cheaper, less hostile to business, warmer ocean water, more laid back, immigrants less hostile to America and more likely to be bilingual, less sense of I’m-better-than-you-because-I’ve-lived-here-longer-than-you-ness among residents. Now, if we just had a few mountains. . .

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-11-06 08:48:24

My father is one of the developers of the catalytic converter. (”Palladium” was a household word when I was growing up.) I can speak from personal experience when I talk about the prices of palladium and platinum.

I’ve assisted my dad on some of his research work, and, trust me, when those two items are on the menu, I have to be extra careful in how I handle them. Can’t waste a single bit due to their price!

 
Comment by packman
2007-11-06 09:05:11

Platinum is running at all-time highs - now almost $1,500 per oz! (was $400 per oz all through the 90’s, and up into Nov. 01). Generally catalytic converters contain a fair amount less than an ounce - anywhere from 1/50 to 1/2 an ounce, though some on large diesel trucks can contain over an ounce.

 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-11-06 09:14:48

Metal recyclers are criminal magnets.
One near me took my fathers aluminum boat for scrap.
It was 14 foot and was worth about $35 for the metal value. The Hull numbers were still in place, and the crooks pulled off the CURRENT registration, but left remnants of it. Do you think they tried to find the owners? Hell no. The “law” did not require it.

I found the boat and reported it to the sheriff. I got it back because it had not be crushed. I also lost several aluminum ladders, some stainless steel sinks, a used transmission and various other metal items.
I have since installed a 6 ft fence around the entire perimeter, but this would not be necessary if the dealers didn’t have a very liberal acceptance policy.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-11-06 10:09:53

Can’t they just steal the fence now?

Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-11-06 10:18:13

It’s not aluminum, it’s steel, so the value is much lower. But it would take time to cut the fence wires and that is too much work and may lead to “discovery”.
But, yes, any security measure can be overcome.
It’s a matter of how much trouble a thief wants to take, or just go on to an easier target.

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Comment by spike66
2007-11-06 17:25:19

Consider getting a nice, good-sized dog from a local shelter. Cops in nyc told me that thieves and stick-up guys do not like the unpredictability of dogs…or their barking, and usually will move on to easier targets.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 10:58:14

Last recession locking gas caps were sold by the thousands.

Also in our small city/rural area there have been two bank robberies in the last week. Money’s short, crime’s up.

 
 
Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 08:17:27

‘The Sentinel reported Monday that Seminole saw the costs of similar elementary-school renovations drop nearly $3 million in two years. Orange County trimmed more than $8 million off the cost of the new Apopka High School.’

I remember wondering why they kept talking about the need to build new schools in Central Florida a couple of years ago.

I thought to myself: “Don’t they realize all this new housing is mostly condos owned by locals as “investments?” It was clear to me (I spend about a week/month in Central Florida) that there was no huge influx of people, just folks buying and selling houses to each other.

Of course, back in 2005, if I were to mention this to assocociates who just financed i/o a 400K Condo that was a rental-apartment-conversion, they’d dismiss me as either jealous of their savvy, or nuts. Now they just don’t speak to me.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-11-06 09:08:38

Are teachers unionized down there? Because if they are all that money saved on constructing those schools will be eaten up quite quickly by salary, benefit, and pension obligations.

Comment by az_lender
2007-11-06 10:50:43

Certainly teachers were unionized when I lived in Martin County in the 1970’s. The union was rotten — always paying lip service to what was good “for the children,” always voting what was good for teachers’ pay.

 
Comment by Aqius
2007-11-06 11:03:32

John

Thats what I wondered also, the school union situation in FL. Any cost savings made internally usually do not get passed along as a reduction by the people that pay the fees/taxes, etc.

Any savings will likely get shifted to another dept, as the school officials are loathe to admit they dont need more money this year.
Thats the forever battle cry of every school district in the nation:

We NEED MORE MONEY !!! MORE MONEY !!!!!!

the second one is: The PARENTSSSSS NEED TO GET MORE INVOLVED!

God I’m so tired of this bleating - I remember back in the 80’s here in CA when the proposed new lottery was supposed to bethe salvation for CA’s schools. Oh yes, the educators were all over that with kids smiling, heart tugging faces plastered on TV. Hey, yer not against KIDS now are you? what are ya, heartless !!? (same trick the Glaziers did with the Tampa Stadium Bond - use kids to get voter sympathy)
Now fast forward 10-12years ….. hmmm, seems the lottery money doesnt SUPPLEMENT state education funds, but REPLACES it ! A little-known but effin important fact that affects the education budget. However, in the true gold rush spirit state of mind to easy big lottery money, no one considered what happens IF . . . god forbid, IF the lottery proceeds go DOWN ….!?? Which has happened.

So now, barely 10-12 years after the much ballyhooed lottery endeavor, we are back to hearing ” CA SCHOOLS NEED MORE MONEY”.
I’ve pretty much determined there will NEVER be enough money for any school district in the country. Ever. Period.

(Dont mean hijack the FL thread- just wanted to show school district politics are pretty much the same nationwide.)

Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 11:42:32

Teachers did a great PR job making everyone feel that they were the world’s underpaid heroes. They even get special tax-free savings account to save for reimbursed school supplies.

Well, I think “Entertainment Industry Consultants” (what I do) are the world’s underpaid heroes! Where’s my tax break?

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Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-11-06 12:11:50

I’d like to see them all get fired and we all go back to homeschooling. K-12 is a TOTAL waste of time.

 
Comment by spike66
2007-11-06 17:39:22

Depends where you went to school. I went to the local public school, then was handed over to the nuns. I have an Ivy degree and basically skipped freshmen courses because of advanced placement. The closer the schools stay to the classic formula, the better prepared the students (4 years of science, 4 years of math, 4 years each of history and English, 4 years of Latin and French). Skip the self-esteem, modern communications, special counseling et. al.–the nuns would just swat you with a ruler. Behave and do the work–or get kicked out, just like real life.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 09:35:57

Of course, back in 2005, if I were to mention this to assocociates who just financed i/o a 400K Condo that was a rental-apartment-conversion, they’d dismiss me as either jealous of their savvy, or nuts. Now they just don’t speak to me.

LOL. It is funny how all the people I told “You’ll be sorry” and who told me that I was just stupid for not jumping on the bandwagon (its free money), now won’t talk to me either.

Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 10:14:17

Most of the time, it wasn’t that they thought I was “stupid”, they thought if was “jealous!” That they were some big “millionaire” player and I was envious of their position.

I wasn’t then, and I’m not now!

Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 10:54:37

Why would we be “envious”? We could have easily gotten ourselves into the same boat with a few toxic loans of our own. Its not like it was rocket science. Just go to the nearest Panera with a broker and sign the papers!

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Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 11:47:25

A lot of people encounter really assume that everyone’s like them and will spend, conspicuously, the maximum amount they can *borrow*. To these people, they can look at a person’s car/watch/house and know exactly how much a person takes in.

So they see my very-used American economy car, my lack of any “bling” and my Target wardrobe (OK! I have a few Brooks Brother’s suits, too) and presume I’m barely getting by, and wouldn’t qualify for a i/o mortgage on a condo in the Sacramento outskirts like they can.

 
Comment by tampaesq
2007-11-06 12:05:10

that is hilarious. my husband and I used to go to Panera when we were studying for the bar exam, and would laugh at the people who were literally signing loan documents there. your observation is completely on the money. and just a tad bit sad, dontchathink? the starbucks and panera types who sit there with their coffee and their laptop, trying to look important and gainfully employed? I have a full-time job, and it sure as heck doesn’t permit me to sit around drinking coffee and and goofing around on the internet with the free wi-fi at 11 AM.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 13:56:26

and presume I’m barely getting by, and wouldn’t qualify for a i/o mortgage on a condo in the Sacramento outskirts like they can.

You were able to fog a mirror back then, right ;-)

the starbucks and panera types who sit there with their coffee and their laptop, trying to look important and gainfully employed?

That’s because you and I are “job slaves”, unlike the self employed illuminati who used to be able to collect big commisions for doing very little. Too bad that party is over.

Actually, its been over in my neck of the woods for a few years already, and I have seen more than a few Realtors driving around in ordinary 3+ year old cars.

 
 
 
Comment by Devildog
2007-11-06 10:33:30

They won’t talk to you because you’re evil and somehow made all this bad stuff happen because of your negativity. Either that or your presence reminds them how stupid they are.

Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 11:12:05

Hey, I wanted my Loveland house to double in price like those in lala land (so I could sell it, pocket the profit and rent). But it didn’t happen.

Of course, I knew that there was no chance of that happening in the first place. Which is also why I refused to become a flipper out here. And rents out here don’t cover mortgage payments either.

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Comment by aimeejd
2007-11-06 08:37:17

“‘Sellers ‘are making concessions,’ Boza Valledor said.’”

Enough “concessions” already–just lower the price.

 
Comment by Jasper
2007-11-06 08:37:20

Sellers are making “concessions”, Boza Valledor said.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. Inigo Montoya; Princess Bride

Comment by Blue Skye
2007-11-06 08:45:07

“prepare to die”

Comment by aladinsane
 
Comment by packman
2007-11-06 09:07:11

LOL - good follow-up.

“My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my housing market. Prepare to die!”

 
Comment by packman
2007-11-06 09:09:36

I hereby dub “The Princess Bride” the official movie of the housing bubble.

Comment by MrBubble
2007-11-06 10:18:08

Aaaaassss youuuuuu wiiiiiishhhhh!

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Comment by jbunniii
2007-11-06 08:49:15

Empty And Overpriced In Florida

When I first read this headline, I thought it referred to the women there!

 
Comment by North GA Dave
2007-11-06 08:54:51

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2007/11/05/m1a_RECESSION_1105.html

Recession symptoms near fever level

“Ken Rappaport, a Boca Raton bankruptcy lawyer, also sees people in financial distress.

But when Rappaport received 250 applications for a $10-an-hour receptionist job in his office, that’s when the area’s economic troubles hit home. Many of the applicants were real estate and mortgage brokers used to sky-high salaries.”

“That’s scary,” Rappaport said. “And that was the thing that brought me to the conclusion: I don’t care what anybody says, we are in a recession.”

…..

“For Jim Day of 222 Corp. in Lake Worth, the signs are clear: People are not paying for his signs.

Day makes and sells “For Sale” lawn signs used by real estate agents to market homes. When the real estate market started to go south last year, Day said, his business increased dramatically. A $25 sign, after all, “is the cheapest form of advertisement,” he said.

But a funny thing happened during the past six months. Real estate agents stopped paying for the signs they had ordered.”

Comment by Annette
2007-11-06 10:23:00

As I stated in my post above, anyone in the mortgage/real estate business who is looking for a “normal” paying job better take that part of their lives off the resume if they want to get a job…For them, the scarlet letter is burned right into the middle of their forehead…with a big “do not touch”. Kind of like the lions in the cages…

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 13:05:43

But when Rappaport received 250 applications for a $10-an-hour receptionist job in his office, that’s when the area’s economic troubles hit home. Many of the applicants were real estate and mortgage brokers used to sky-high salaries.”

This is what happens to those who lack and education and chase after the get rich fast jobs such as mortgage brokers and realtors. They often end back in their prior careers.

 
 
Comment by Mormon_Tea
2007-11-06 09:02:10

“One day the lenders stopped giving loans to his clients. Winnie blames the media, especially TV, for hyping the bursting of the housing bubble and panicking investors.”
Of course, I personally blame the geography books I read in third grade for replacing my easy flat world with a complicated globe.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-06 09:05:13

Today’s Officer Of Loan (TOOL)

“‘There is more inventory in all price ranges,’ said Deborah Boza Valledor, the chief operating officer of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches.”

 
Comment by watcher
2007-11-06 09:09:38

The dollar is breaking down today; could really start to plunge here. In related news gold is up 15 and silver is showing a commercial system failure

Comment by watcher
2007-11-06 09:11:35

Should say commercial signal failure as the big commercial shorts are being squeezed hard. This looks like the beginning of something.

Sorry for the double post.

 
 
Comment by Lane from Charlotte
2007-11-06 09:20:58

I think you are going to see this mess spill over into other markets, boats, airplanes and exotic cars. I saw something this summer at our marina I could not believe. The marina would give the mfg. rebate to the bank so it would look like a down payment. These are big boats. So now we have people with no money down on boats too. Saw a few go back to bank last year. We bought our second boat there in 2006 and he asked about a down payment I said I will put down 25%, his chin dropped, said, are you serious. My wife and I sold the boat in sept. glad it sold before the market died. I`m still licking my wounds but feels good to be free.

Lane

Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 09:43:06

We bought our second boat there in 2006 and he asked about a down payment I said I will put down 25%, his chin dropped, said, are you serious

Nobody has money. When I tell people that we have a 6 figure 401(k) balance I get oohs and ahhs. I can’t wait for the day when I can tell them that we have a 7 figure balance. I imagine they’ll say something like “b-b-but that’s impossible!”.

Comment by Lane from Charlotte
2007-11-06 10:01:21

Yep on the no money part and right on to 401! Good for you! I`m sure I don`t need to tell you, but just make sure you are not heavy banks. At least not right now. I will be buying banks in a year or two.

Take care,
Lane

 
Comment by Dave
2007-11-06 10:02:18

Why would you ever tell people that have no money that you have a lot of it? As far as everyone is concerned, I am as broke as the next guy.

Comment by marionsucks
2007-11-06 10:25:27

Right On with that. All my Friends used to say , ” Someday I’m going to be Rich and Famous”.

I say , I just want to be ” Rich and nobody knows it”.

I already have enough muchers, asking for money.

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 14:30:34

I have no problem telling moochers to get lost.

 
 
Comment by Annette
2007-11-06 10:25:30

I agree with that …never let anyone know what or how much you have…people live for “envy.” Most people think my husband is the cheapest man alive..we like them to keep thinking that…as we watch them “debt” their life away…

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Comment by ChrisO
2007-11-06 11:41:28

I’m like that too; I don’t broadcast my financial situation and frankly don’t want to know yours either.

I’ve noticed a related phenomenon. When everything was go-go a few years ago, my wife and I felt like the poor relations since we didn’t feel rich and weren’t “flashing the cash around.” Now, all of a sudden, our personal situation is about the same, but we seem to be on a much sounder footing than many folks. I guess it helps to keep things on an even keel.

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 14:33:26

I don’t “flash cash around”. I still drive a pretty modest car, at least when compared to the non savers.

My “bling”, if you want to call it that, is telling them when I plan to retire (comfortably), and then ask them what their plan is.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 14:29:19

Why would you ever tell people that have no money that you have a lot of it? As far as everyone is concerned, I am as broke as the next guy.

Its not like I go walking around wearing a sandwich board with my balance on it. It mostly comes up when people tell me how the housing market will come back and their ship will once again come in, unlike those losers who try to save with 401(k)s. That’s when I tell them what my balance is.

I mean, fair is fair. In the past I had to listen to them brag about how much they made on a flip. Too bad they pissed it away on super expensive cars, etc.

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Comment by WatchingTheSagaUnfold
2007-11-06 15:25:05

‘I mean, fair is fair. In the past I had to listen to them brag about how much they made on a flip. Too bad they pissed it away on super expensive cars, etc.’

About 8 years ago we had the same scene. Is it possible all the bubble cards have been played out for much longer than 8 years now? What will be the next bubbly,intoxicating binge?

 
 
 
Comment by david cee
2007-11-06 10:22:54

“When I tell people that we have a 6 figure 401(k) balance I get oohs and ahhs.”
Sorry, I don’t get it. Inflation for the things you need, like food, gas, education is running higher than any interest rate on any secured 401K investment, government bond or bank CD.
AND then when you start taking your money out of your 401K, you will be taxed at the then prevailing tax rate, which looks like it’s going up Federal and guaranteed to go up State.

Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 13:59:35

I have been considering coverting to a Roth 401K for that very reason.

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Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 14:01:55

But also never underestimate the power of the geezer lobby. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lobbied to have 401(k) and IRA distributions taxed at a lower rate than regular income.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-06 14:36:59

Sorry, I don’t get it. Inflation for the things you need, like food, gas, education is running higher than any interest rate on any secured 401K investment, government bond or bank CD.

Which is why my money is not invested in those sort of instruments (at least not yet). I made 1.66% today. But have no fear, my finger is on the eject button.

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Comment by combotechie
2007-11-06 09:53:40

“My wife and I sold the boat in sept.”

The second of the two happiest days of a boat owner.

Comment by Les Pendens
2007-11-06 11:17:00

..

“My wife and I sold the boat in sept.”

The second of the two happiest days of a boat owner.

That depends. For alot of people, they find that after awhile boating “isn’t their thing”. That’s prolly around 70% of the people that get into boats.

The other 30%, like myself, take to boating because they do more that just “ride around”. Near-offshore fishing, camping on deserted keys, cruising the St. Johns, etc are just a few of the boating associated activities that I enjoy here in Florida.

For some, boating isn’t a hobby, its a lifestyle. Especially here in Florida. Just about every weekend you will find me somewhere down here on my beloved old boat. Heck, sometimes I enjoy boating alone.

Serious boaters will do / pay whatever it takes to keep their boats on the water and go frequently.

A word to the wise: Avoid brand-new boats. New boats are good for about five years; after that you will face the same round of repairs that a 15 year old boat requires. Be prepared to learn the basics of outboard/inboard repair and do alot of it yourself, as you are able.

I love boating, and it takes up most of my spare time.

..

 
 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-11-06 09:34:19

The reason this is going to get much worse is because very few would-be buyers now feel safe concerning the “drug pushers” in real estate. Those being mortgage brokers and realtors. Confidence has to return to the property market but the erosion of confidence is, if anything, not subsiding but is actually growing in magnitude with all the reports of fraud and double dealing.

Things like deceit, by mortgage brokers and realtors (which I call outright fraud) has to be banned. What do I mean by deceit? Here’s an example:

I’m sure many on this blog understand what Yeild Spread Premium means (YSP) but if you are not aware of how it works, here’s an example: A buyer needs financing for a property valued at (say) $500,000. He goes to a mortgage broker. The broker says he has can get the buyer a mortgage at 7 1/2%. In fact, the broker has a lender who will offer 7%. The scam here, and that’s EXACTLY what it is, is the 1/2% difference. The YSP (Yeild Spread Premium) which is carved up by the lender and the broker.

The lender, of course, is going to collect 1/2% more for 30 years so he kicks back a big fat bonus (thousands of dollars usually) as a bonus to the broker who is also getting a fat fee for arranging the mortgage. Here’s the catch. The sleight of hand difference of 1/2% does NOT show up in the contract. There is NOTHING stating the actual % which WAS available was 7% but the lender and broker have gouged out another 1/2%. Thus, the buyer is not aware he will be paying 1/2% more over what he COULD have been paying, for 30 years. That will amount to thousands of dollars. Truth is, that kind of action should be classed as criminal fraud.

Here’s the good news. In this particular property boom/bust it’s going to be SO bad that new laws will be brought in to shut down these rip-offs. In fact (even if you don’t like his politics it doesn’t matter) Barney Frank is introducing legislation which will seriously curtail fraud by brokers and lenders. Actually, probably 99% of independent brokers will be out of business within 5 years and those that DO survive, will be highly regulated.Why? Because the Financial Gangsters of Wall Street have been ripped off by this boom/bust and they are not the guys to fu*k with. They will tell there paid off minions (politicians) to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Of course, the Gangsters will not lose anything over the longer term. It just means they (the Financial Gangsters of Wall Street) will have to work harder at stealing Mom and Pops savings and looting the 401k funds to fill up their coffers again.

Comment by Dave
2007-11-06 10:07:12

See, H.R. 3915, The Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2007.

http://www.washingtonwatch.com/bills/show/110_HR_3915.html

Comment by Mike
2007-11-06 10:24:56

Dave
Thanks for the link. Interesting to read the comments section. Obviously, most of the angry posters who are against the bill are from mortgage brokers who have been looting, ripping off and engaged in fraud. What’s wrong with telling the lender EXACTLY what they are paying for? All the information should be seen in a bright light. Not concealed in some dark, seedy corner where the rats connive together to cheat the unwary. Tell the borrower the TRUTH. That’s what these brokers and realtors do not like. The truth. Here are a few truths:

1. Real estate does not always go up.
2. Now is NOT a good time to buy.
3. You should only pay 6% NOT 7%.
4. The banker and broker worked out a deal to screw you.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-11-06 10:56:54

I saw your post about the reform bill . I have to agree that if that bill is passed it would create a big change in the mortgage business .

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Comment by Annette
2007-11-06 10:30:20

I emailed the House Financial Services Committee with this great link…

http://banking.senate.gov/02_01hrg/010802/jackson.htm

Shows that when you stick your head in the sand asking for something “bad” to go away….well we all see the result today of doing nothing about something that was right in front of our noses years ago…

 
 
Comment by buynhold
2007-11-06 10:30:13

Although I agree that there are many issues with the way mortgages are handled, especially by mortgage brokers, the rates given to a mortgage broker are wholesale rates. A borrower wouldn’t necessarily be able to get that rate at retail.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 11:18:41

Most mortgage brokers made all their big bucks from fat commissions. $7-10k per transaction. Most banks charge about $1500-1800. Just one more way to get ripped off. That’s why I steer clear of and have told everyone I know to steer clear of mortgage brokers. They really don’t have any money and they only tack on commissions to broker the loan for you that you could get from a bank. That’s why they’re called brokers. If you can’t afford to use a bank, you shouldn’t be buying a house.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-11-06 10:13:31

“One day the lenders stopped giving loans to his clients. Winnie blames the media, especially TV, for hyping the bursting of the housing bubble and panicking investors.”

This Winne guy is blaming everyone but himself for the problems, when in fact he was part of the problem.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-11-06 10:48:33

Those kinds of interest rates games go on in the car business also .I don’t know if they have laws currently that stop the mortgage agents from selling a loan more favorable to the agent than the borrower ,but it seems like during this boom ,whatever could be crammed down the borrowers throat …was . The borrowers didn’t care because of the ponzi scheme flip game .

In a normal market borrowers are very concerned about loan costs and they shop and shop and interest/cost compare ,especially if they are putting hard earned cash as a down payment .Only in a mania will you get borrowers going on any kind of loan with the idea that they can just get rid of a bad loan by refinancing or selling the POS . Really, alot of these borrowers accepted these toxic high cost loans because they didn’t have any skin in the game or the borrower knew they didn’t really qualify for the loan .

I agree they they will try to change the laws/regulations so the secondary market won’t get burned in the future rather than the first consideration being the protection of the borrower.

Comment by Ann
2007-11-06 14:27:14

Well kiss your YSP issue goodbye…Barney Frank tossed it out..even mentioned how the mortgage brokers were in a uproar…typical of our congressmen..worried about help the little, excuse me, big guy….wonder if his mortgage is up for a refi?????

 
 
Comment by DIMEDROPPED
2007-11-06 11:02:30

Funny aside-We had a huge issue here in Orlando as the Sheriff had just purchased 14, 50 caliber rifles for his troops. These things will shoot through schools.

The local press got this in their sights and began to question it. The Sheriff said they were purchased to protect the public from the wild animals in the local tourist parks, like disney and sea world. LOL

Can you imagine Shamu on the loose in downtown Orlando? In the end as I thought about it perhaps the high Sheriff knows something we don’t and that is he is going to have to take on some pretty desperate bad dudes in the near future.(Oh and the rifles cost $1400 each.)

Comment by BP
2007-11-06 12:25:39

Right before I left Palm Beach County our sheriff bought a “command tank” . Of course that was the good old days when no one questioned stupid government purchases with flush bubble tax money!!

Comment by Magic Kat
2007-11-06 15:34:08

When I was a kid, the sheriff didn’t carry a gun. Sometimes you’d see him driving around town wearing a navy blue tshirt and his uniform pants. He didn’t have a big belt full of explosives or a walkie talkie pinned to his shoulder. He was friendly and was known to give kids a ride to school on cold, foggy mornings.

There’s a policeman assigned to the high school up the street from our house. He is always dressed to the hilt in the lastest combat gear. When two kids were fighting in the cafeteria, he put on a full face mask, carrying a shield, and wielded a huge bat. He looks like something out of Mad Max, and is totally unapproachable. The para-military police in this town is now thought of as “normal.” I do everything I can to avoid them; I do not trust them.

 
 
 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 11:27:11

Atlantic Coast Investments sold two of the homes to Nathan’s wife, Suzan Barros, the same day his company bought them. Barros, a licensed real estate broker in Boca Raton, paid at least $200,000 above the original seller’s price. In her mortgage notes, Barros is listed as a single woman.

Barros obtained two loans - each for more than $1.1 million - in less than two weeks.

Terri Marie Price, a mortgage broker with a felony conviction for insurance fraud, also bought two of the Tampa properties from Atlantic Coast Investments and received loans in the same week.

Using The Lender’s Gap

By securing loans from different lenders, Price and Barros were able to borrow twice the amount for which they were prequalified. Price could not be reached for comment.

“It’s called using the lenders’ gap,” Pollack said. The borrower buys a second, similarly priced property before the paperwork goes through on the first loan. The lenders assume the borrowers are shopping for loans and don’t realize they’re actually buying two properties at the same time, he said.

Pollack also said Barros should not have been approved for either of the loans because she and Nathan have outstanding court judgments against them for more than $600,000. A basic search of public records in Palm Beach County would have revealed the debts.

“It’s up to the title agent to see if there are liens and judgments against the borrower,” Pollock said. “The bank relies on the title company to do that.”

In this case, the husband owned the title company. “That’s very suspicious,” Pollock said. “It would be of extreme interest to any investigator.”

This from the Tampa Tribune full article from the original post above. Boy talk about how many ways there are to screw someone, these people have it down pat.

Back in 02-03 in OH we could not sell a house that had sold in the last year. They were checking for flippers and they researched each property to see if it had recorded in the previous 12 months. Realtors were sent letters explaining flipping and told that if they were involved they could be prosecuted. People that legitimately had to sell had a very hard time. Looks like the flippers moved onto FL since they had such a tough time here.

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-11-06 11:44:56

“Sellers ‘are making concessions,’ Boza Valledor said. ‘They will offer a year’s worth of paid maintenance fees to the buyer, or they will pay for the parking space or they will throw in country club fees that might be part of the expense of buying a home in a gated community.’”

Screw your little phoney incentives. Take 50% off for starters.

 
Comment by seymourpansick
2007-11-06 13:00:52

…..

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-11-06 13:03:18

Below are the prices for one house in Celebration FL according to Zip. Can’t figure out why if it doesn’t sell, they increase the price. Did they hear some news report on July 30th that said housing was turning around, then by Sept 27th decided, no it wasn’t.

Price Reduced: 06/13/07 — $259,000 to $239,000
Price Reduced: 06/27/07 — $239,000 to $229,000
Price Reduced: 07/14/07 — $229,000 to $199,000
Price Increased: 07/30/07 — $199,000 to $249,000
Price Reduced: 09/27/07 — $249,000 to $199,000
Price Increased: 10/31/07 — $199,000 to $220,000

Comment by Ann
2007-11-06 14:24:33

Probably want to do the old “cash back at closing” scam…its a favorite among Floridians…We have perfected it…#1 in the country for Mortgage Fraud…

 
Comment by reuven
2007-11-06 20:52:38

I think they just wanted to freshen the listing. Maybe something nearby sold, so they tried to reprice.

For $199, it’s probably a condo. Prices are still inflated there. A condo in oseola county is worth $0 of you ask me. You couldn’t pay me enough to live in that crime-infested county.

 
 
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