The Housing Bubble

The Ellsworth American reports from Maine. “The state’s consumer credit office says it already is receiving almost daily phone calls from Mainers who can’t repay their loans. ‘We know there’s a problem because of the phone calls we are getting nearly every day from consumers who are unable to make their mortgage payments,’ said Will Lund, head of the Office of Consumer Credit Protection.”

“Lund said his office initially underestimated the problem. ‘There was a perception that Mainers would be conservative and would only opt for fixed-rate loans, and Maine lenders were conservative and would only offer loans Mainers could afford,’ Lund said. ‘That perception turned out to be myth.’”

“Mainers had a higher percentage of subprime loans for cash-out refinancing than any other state in the country from 2004 through May of 2005, according to a report done in 2006 by Coastal Enterprise Inc. in Wiscasset.”

“And the subprime market just continued to grow through 2005 and 2006.”

The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “Desperate homeowners trying to unload properties face a new obstacle: appraisers who are increasingly coming in with lower-than-expected estimates of home values.”

“David Reznikow, a mortgage planner in Boston’s South End, said he’s had two sales deals nixed at the last minute due to appraisals that came in lower than anticipated. He said some appraisals are coming in 20 percent below what sellers thought their homes were worth.”

USA Today reports on Massachusetts. “Foreclosures and pre-foreclosure sales are weighing down the real estate market in Worcester, Mass. ‘About 20% of the sales we’re doing are short sales,’ says broker David Shortsleeve.”

“He estimates that lenders are accepting losses of about 10%, on average, in the short sales. Worst hit are buyers who bought homes in the past three years with little or no money down. ‘There is no room for error,’ he says.”

The Providence Journal from Rhode Island. “Rhode Island’s housing market showed signs of quickening deterioration during the third quarter as single-family house prices dipped, sales sank and selling time lengthened.”

“Patrick Newport, a housing economist at Global Insight, said that nationwide house prices are ’starting to drop at faster rates,’ especially in areas that have been hard hit by foreclosures on risky, or ’subprime,’ mortgages.”

“‘It’s a bigger problem in Rhode Island … than in other New England states,’ Newport said. ‘Houses [are] going into foreclosure in a market already saturated with unsold homes … so you’re probably going to have steeper price declines coming up.’”

The Connecticut Post. “This is Monday in foreclosure court, and confusion, shame and heartbreak chase around the faces of debtors. Such was the case with Javier and Denise Ramirez.”

“Denise Ramirez said they moved into a single-family house in Bridgeport in December 2005. Their monthly mortgage payment was $1,789, she said. She had a mortgage with a fixed two-year introductory rate that would then reset to an adjustable rate.”

“Many first-time homebuyers,, and people with less-than-perfect credit, called subprime borrowers, took out these loans after being told they would be able to refinance before the reset to the higher rate. That strategy assumes the value of the property would rise between the original purchase and the refinance.”

“‘We were making the payments for a year and a half,’ Denise Ramirez said.”

“Denise Ramirez told the judge they had found a potential buyer who was offering them $190,000 for the home they paid $211,500 for in 2005. The judge explained they owed almost $230,000 to the bank; he set the law date for Jan. 29. ‘So it’s not enough,’ Denise Ramirez said.”

“Theirs was one of many cases handled that day. The load the courts is dealing with is so large that Connecticut Supreme Court Chief Justice Chase T. Rodgers announced the formation of the Bench-Bar Foreclosure Committee to study the issue.”

“‘The number of foreclosure cases added in court during the 2005-06 fiscal years totaled 11,764,’ the Chief Justice wrote in a news release. ‘That number increased to 15,773 for the 2006-07 fiscal year.’”

The Hartford Courant from Connecticut. “Home sales plunged in Connecticut in September by the largest percentage in a year, and the median sale price dropped by several thousand dollars.”

“The picture is getting dangerously worse for home-sellers such as Linda and Erwin Flewelling, who first listed their four-bedroom home in East Hampton for sale late last year. After several price cuts, the 2,200-square-foot house is now listed for $289,900, down from $369,900.”

“‘I am frustrated. I thought it would sell faster than it has,’ Linda Flewelling said.”

“Other numbers create cause for concern, as well. The number of houses on the market in Greater Hartford was 6,035 in September, up by 9 percent from a year earlier, and up a whopping 45 percent from 2002.”

“‘The subprime market for less-than-credit-worthy buyers has disappeared, and that was a major portion of the lending market in Connecticut,’ said Ron Van Winkle, a West Hartford economist. ‘Houses that went on the market this summer didn’t sell, and now these numbers reflect those closings. It’s a big drop.’”

“‘I guess it is going to take the right person to come in, but we really don’t want to take it off the market, and I don’t want to go lower on the price,’ Linda Flewelling said. ‘We’ve done a lot of work here. There’s plenty of activity, but why isn’t someone buying it?’”

The New York Sun. “Much has been said about Manhattan’s perceived real estate invincibility in the aftermath of the subprime meltdown, but lawyers representing dozens of condominium boards in some of the city’s wealthiest neighborhoods say they are seeing these default cases increase as much as 25% this year.”

“‘There has been a very substantial increase of cases involving condominiums,’ a lawyer who is the president of the Council of New York Cooperatives and Condominiums, Marc Luxemburg, said.”

“During the last housing downturn in the early 1990s, there was a similar increase in defaults preceding numerous foreclosures, Mr. Luxemburg said.”

“‘This could be an indication that something larger is going on,’ a partner at Breier Deutschmeister Urban & Fromme, Lisa Urban, said. Last year at this time, she had one such case of a default on common charges; now, she has seven.”

The Staten Island “Staten Island saw a nearly 4 percent dip in the cost of one- to three-family homes during the third quarter of the year, according to a report released yesterday by the Real Estate Board of New York.”

“The number of single-family homes sold in the borough dropped 40 percent from September 2005 to September 2007, from 295 to 166 homes for the monthly period, according to figures from the New York State Association of Realtors.”

“Realtor Robert Kelly in Oakwood said buyers are sitting on the fence, despite bargains and low interest rates.”

“‘I don’t think the message is getting out there that it’s still an excellent time to buy,’ he said. ‘You can take your time to find the house that’s perfect for you. If you want a house with an oak bar or a 24-foot pool in the yard, it’s out there.’”

The Express Times on Pennsylvania. “Home sales in the Lehigh Valley fell 18 percent in October compared with last year’s pace, the latest in a yearlong pattern of declining sales.”
“‘What is selling is the cream of the crop,’ said Nick Kavounas, a managing partner at Coldwell Banker Heritage Real Estate in Bethlehem. ‘If a listing is not cream of the crop, it’s going to be a frustrating experience for the seller and the listing agent.’”

“Pending sales also declined. For October, 397 pending sales were reported, 27 percent less than the 545 pending sales LVAR listed in the same month last year.”

“The drop in pending sales, Kavounas said, reveals that homes for sale are not being bought as quickly as in past years. It’s another reason sellers need to be realistic in their expectations, he said.”

“‘To me, this shows that there are sellers in denial and more importantly there are real estate agents in denial,’ Kavounas said. ‘Things are on the market that shouldn’t be.’”

The Courier Times from Pennsylvania. “Bensalem-based Orleans Homebuilders continued to feel the pain from a slumping housing market and reported a $2.1 million loss in the first quarter of its fiscal year.”

“‘We remain in difficult times for both the economy and our industry,’ CEO Jeffrey Orleans said in a conference call. ‘After numerous consecutive years of industry growth, the homebuilding market continues its dramatic downturn.’”

“‘Starting in September, we have observed increased nationwide discounting, particularly by some of the largest companies in our industry,’ Orleans said. ‘I believe they are hurting the stronger markets in an attempt to offset negative order trends in some of their regional markets. We have been forced to follow suit, and have increased our discounts and incentives. We must remain competitive.’”

The Record from New Jersey. “Monday morning Jodi Riley, payroll manager for the now-closed Hoboken Wood Flooring in Wayne, handed out what paychecks she had left to about 50 employees gathered at its Demarest Drive headquarters and advised them to file claims with the state’s Department of Labor for unpaid wages.”

“Sales were down 25 percent each month for the past year, said commercial business development manager Jerry Pryor, because of the downward spiral in the housing industry, competition from manufacturers shipping directly to retailers, and the company’s push to expand nationally and eventually go public.”

“‘New York City was carrying the majority of the company, and we were selling commercially,’ said Pryor. But, he added, ‘residentially we were dying for a good year. I think we got too large, too quick.’”

The Star Ledger from New Jersey. “When Red Bank-based home builder Hovnanian slashed its prices by as much as $100,000 during its three-day ‘Deal of the Century’ fire sale last month, customers packed the company’s sales centers and kicked home sales into overdrive.”

“More than 2,100 contracts were signed in 72 hours, a flood of activity that convinced company executives the end of the housing bust was near. Well, perhaps Hovnanian jumped the gun a bit.”

“The largest home builder in New Jersey and the sixth-largest in the nation reported a 10 percent drop in quarterly new-home orders and said sales significantly deteriorated in October.”

“Faced with a glut of unsold homes and canceled contracts, some analysts now predict Hovnanian may have to resort to yet another round of Crazy Eddie-type price cuts to clear its large inventory of houses.”

“‘Sales likely fizzled after Hovnanian attempted to pull away incentives from its ‘Deal of the Century’ promotions the weekend of Sept. 14-16,’ said Bank of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim.”

“More than half of Hovnanian’s orders in the recent quarter came during the company’s heavily hyped ‘Deal of the Century’ weekend sales blitz.”

“For the fourth quarter ended Oct. 31, Hovnanian’s contracts totaled 2,781 homes, down 10 percent from a year ago, the company said yesterday. Meanwhile, cancellations rose to 40 percent of gross contracts, up from a 35 percent cancellation rate for both the third quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2006.”

“Hovnanian attributed the increase in cancellations primarily to tighter mortgage underwriting standards. Indeed, according to the October Senior Loan Officer Survey released by the Federal Reserve this week, the credit squeeze is no longer just a ’subprime’ story. Prime borrowers are also feeling the pinch.”

“According to the Fed report, 48 percent of banks tightened lending standards on mortgages in October, and 40 percent of those surveyed said they tightened standards on prime mortgages, up sharply from 15 percent when lenders were polled in April.”

“‘This is the sharpest increase in lending standards on record,’ said Aaron Smith, an analyst at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. ‘It suggests the subprime mess is becoming more contagious, restricting prime borrowers’ access to credit.’”

“Some real estate experts believe there may be more to the October pull back in sales than just tight-fisted lenders turning away borrowers. While Hovnanian’s banner sale got a ton of media coverage, the fact is new home builders have been busy cutting prices and staging blow out sales since early summer.”

“And Dani Babb, a real estate author and consultant, said these types of campaigns may have done more harm than good. Homes near the ones where Hovnanian slashed prices are now effectively worth less. And this essentially deflates the price of the market and devalues existing home prices even more.”

“The result: homebuyers may be even more reluctant to buy homes because they are worried lower prices may be offered in the near future, she said.”

“Jeffrey Otteau, president of East Brunswick-based Otteau Valuation Group, said yesterday the New Jersey housing market took a turn for the worse in September for just this very reason.”

“According to Otteau, home purchase activity in September…declined 23 percent from the prior month and was 17 percent below the year-ago level in September 2006.”

“‘This negative performance provides compelling evidence that homebuyers continue to take a wait-and-see approach out of concern that home prices will continue to drift lower,’ he said.”

“Given the pace of home sales is declining, the inventory of unsold homes now represents a 13 month supply on the market, up from 7 months in March and 10 months in August.”

“‘What you have is a public that has been told over and over again, ‘Don’t buy,’” Otteau said. “Just three weeks ago, Jim Cramer says on CNBC, don’t you dare buy a house now or you will lose money … and so we have paralysis. Homebuyers are frozen like deers in the headlights