The End Of The Housing Boom Is The Catalyst Of Everything
News 14 reports from North Carolina. “There is bad news in the real estate market in the Charlotte region. For years, the area seemed almost immune to the national housing slump. That immunity appears to be wearing off as fewer homes are selling and the ones that are selling are doing so for less money. ‘It does get frustrating after awhile. We’ve had consistent showings but not a lot of interests past that, but we’re waiting,’ said Greg Gelting.”
“He and his fiancée are trying to sell their townhome just outside of uptown Charlotte. With a wedding a half year away, they’re anxious to sell the home.”
“A recent survey by the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association shows a sharp decline in home sales; they are down 23 percent from this time last year. The potentially worse news is that average housing prices actually dropped.”
“Good news for Gelting, who is looking forward to being the buyer instead of seller. ‘As frustrating as that is, talking to our agent and looking at what’s out there, it’s going to be a good time to buy and that’s what we’re looking forward to.’”
The Sun News from South Carolina. “Indebted home builder Levitt and Sons and 37 of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy, leaving residents of its unfinished Murrells Inlet project wondering whether they will ever live in the carefree, active retirement community builders promised.”
“‘We’re in a community that looks like a ghost town almost, as far as things not being finished,’ said Donna Jones, who lives in Seasons with her husband in a home that she bought in July.”
“Residents worry that plans to build 460 houses and a 27,000 square-foot clubhouse won’t materialize. Only 80 homes have been finished and another 100 or so are in various stages of construction, said resident Nancy Darr.”
“The shell of the clubhouse greets residents at the community’s entrance. ‘None of us would have bought here if it weren’t for the amenities center,’ said Darr.”
“Residents also have been told that security in the development would be scaled back and that their home warranties aren’t any good. On top of that, contractors and subcontractors have filed liens against Levitt and Sons and against individual homeowners.”
“It’s unclear who will pay off the liens or whether people whose homes are unfinished will get their down payments back. ‘We bought here because we had a dream and now it’s turned into a nightmare,’ said resident Ed Schumann.”
“It’s very frustrating, all the promises they made and then they do nothing,” said resident Jim McLaughlin.
The Miami Herald from Florida. “Levitt and Sons will abandon thousands of home lots if its lenders don’t provide additional financing, lawyers for the home builder said in the company’s first bankruptcy hearing Tuesday.”
“Levitt and Sons has more than 9,000 home lots in various stages of construction in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee. Its customers have been in limbo since September.”
“Philip M. Hudson III, a Miami lawyer who represents KeyBank, said the Cleveland lender was prepared to foreclose on the lots securing its loans if it decides foreclosing is cheaper than providing financing to Levitt and Sons. ‘We just need to make a business judgment which scenario is better,’ Hudson said.”
“Asked the about the hang-up on reaching agreements, Paul S. Singerman, Levitt and Sons’ Miami bankruptcy lawyer said he suspected lenders may be ‘overwhelmed by the mountain of distressed loans’ they have.”
“Before Levitt and Sons suspended operations in September, Singerman said cancellations exceeded sales by 145 percent. The builder has more than 23,000 creditors. One landscaping contractor went so far as to remove plants from a community in Georgia, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution reported.”
The Herald Tribune from Florida. “Although the housing market has slowed, Gov. Charlie Crist said there is ‘no way’ the state or Southwest Florida has slipped into a recession.”
“‘I feel great about the economy,’ Crist said as he left a political fundraiser.”
“Economic numbers in the region are not quite as positive. Taxable sales are declining, housing permits are down 70 percent, unemployment is on the rise and business bankruptcies have doubled in the last two years.”
The Ledger from Florida. “With the state government facing a $2 billion shortfall in next year’s budget, many analysts are pointing to the state’s slumping housing market as the primary reason for the economic decline and the drop-off in state tax collections.”
“‘There are some fundamentals that the policy makers don’t have a sizable handle on yet. There are a lot of ‘what-ifs.’ We’re wondering if there is a sea change and what does that portend?’ said Dominic Calabro, president of Florida TaxWatch. ‘We really don’t know why all these people aren’t moving here.’”
“Randall Holcombe, a Florida State University economics professor, said that the state’s boom times are to blame for the bad times. He said a drop in the economy was almost inevitable following the combination of a national real estate boom and the dramatic retail bump following hurricanes in 2004 and 2005.”
“‘What we should have done is been more responsible in previous years,’ he said.”
The Times Union from Florida. “Blame the housing market, says Amy Baker, coordinator of the state Office of Economic & Demographic Research.”
“‘The end of the housing boom is the catalyst of everything,’ Baker said. ‘We went through a five-year period of double-digit growth in terms of values and appreciation and construction starts, and when it evaporated and returned to normal, it took a lot of steam out of the economy. And now we’re actually a little below normal.’”
The Palm Beach Post from Florida. “A deluge of factors working against cash-strapped homeowners in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast came together last month. Faced with adjustable mortgage payments resetting at double and sometimes triple the original percentage rate, local homeowners threw away their keys three times faster in October than they did in the same month last year, studies released Tuesday show.”
“In Palm Beach County, 1,620 homeowners received mortgage default notices, according to the clerk’s office. And in St. Lucie County, where the sound of hammers all day long signified one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation, until the bubble burst, 610 homeowners could not afford their mortgage payments. That compared with 193 foreclosures a year ago.”
From Local 10.com in Florida. “It’s definitely a buyer’s market in today’s real estate rollercoaster. The number of available foreclosure properties is soaring in South Florida, Local 10’s Julie Summers reported.”
“There are more than double the amounts of foreclosed properties than this time last year.”
“Bargains are out there now. But the best may be yet to come. ‘Nobody’s giving away real estate yet in this market,’ said David Dabby, a South Florida real estate analyst.”
USA Today on Florida. “After a red-hot market during the housing boom, Jacksonville now faces tougher times. Newly built houses and condos that aren’t on the waterfront…have tended to fall in price this year, brokers say.”
“The market has evolved considerably. At its peak, ‘People were fighting over properties before the ‘for sale’ sign got into the yard,’ says Janie Boyd, a broker associate. ‘Today, a home may be on the market 90 days to six months or more.’”
“Canadian snowbirds are rethinking Florida. ‘I haven’t met one person this year that wants to stay in Florida,’ said Boynton Beach resident Dory Kilburn, who heads the Boynton Intracoastal Group, a Canadian advocacy organization. ‘They all say they are getting out.’”
“In the last few months, Gerry Brissenden said, the majority of people he has talked to say they are planning to leave Florida. It’s not a small number. ‘We have held meetings throughout Ontario. I have had perhaps 5,000 people at meetings,’ he said. ‘Of those coming to Florida, about 70 percent are saying, ‘We are going to sell our place.’”
“The housing recovery will be very uneven, with some markets bouncing back more quickly, predicted National Association of Realtors economist Lawrence Yun.”
“Florida may see a particularly spotty rebound after having been turned into ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ he said.”
“Sarasota has seen prices drop about 10 percent, he noted. ‘It was one of the strongest markets during the boom,’ so it is one of the biggest losers now, and will take some time to correct, he said.” “‘People who recently bought are feeling pain,’ he said.”
“Housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes, Yun said. ‘The pent-up demand is there,’ he said.”
“At the moment, the housing market is stalled because those would-be buyers are holding out for lower prices, while sellers are waiting for prices to rebound. ‘This is a battle between buyers and sellers,’ Yun noted.”
“More than 30,000 members and guests of the NAR streamed into Las Vegas Monday to launch their annual Convention & Expo.”
“Among this week’s participants are about two dozen members of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. Eric Sain, president-elect of RAPB, said members of his group are concerned primarily about lowering property taxes and ‘making houses affordable.’”
“He noted that nationally, the average home costs roughly $250,000, compared with $350,000 in his area. That’s down from a peak of about $430,000, but still too high for many potential buyers, he said.”
“Chuck Bonfiglio, president-elect of Florida Association of Realtors, said that while lower prices would help more people buy homes, some sellers are still reluctant to cut prices because of ‘culture shock.’”
“In Florida, ‘we were used to seeing constant appreciation,’ he said. ‘For five years, it was so great,’ he said, referring to 2001-2005. ‘But it can’t just go up like that forever.’”
‘concerned primarily about lowering property taxes and ‘making houses affordable…down from a peak of about $430,000, but still too high for many potential buyers, he said…Housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes, Yun said. ‘The pent-up demand is there’
Yeah, he keeps telling people the rebound is just around the corner, but they all wonder why sellers aren’t lowering prices. Get a clue NAR.
Yun reminds me about the childrens story about the boy who cried wolf too many times.
Yun, you have not been correct once in your predictions and your credibility as well as the credibility of the NAR has been severely damaged in the publics viewpoint.
“Housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes, Yun said. ‘The pent-up demand is there,’ he said.”
The pent up demand was used up by speculators buying multiple housing units condos or free standing, builders building them and buyers defaulting. There is/was no significant “pent up demand” at least not for the sheer volume of housing units available.
As a caveat, there is a demand at the right price. The market may move to some semblance of normalcy, in terms of unit sales and normal being pre 2000, if the prices go down to affordable levels. 10% ain’t s**t!! Prices in most areas have to fall 30 to 50% or more below the 2005 peak.
Demand is increased by creation of households, which is about
2 to 3% per year of existing households, max. Demand is also increased by people moving into the area and offset by deaths.
Here in Florida, we crow about the retiree’s moving here and most die within 10 years, so we need a continual crop of old timers to fill the slots. Our growth and housing sales have been to a large part driven by the retirees. That’s great if they can sell their house up north. Ain’t happening now.
Technically, we will loose 10% of the retirees every year, freeing up a housing unit. However most will be in over 55 communities.
In Orland we have on house/condo for sale for every 16 households. So if these 16 house holds give us 3% that is .48 new households. Most will rent. When your 19 year old leaves home, does he buy a house? If everyone bought a house we have 2 years of inventory. If most rent we have an uncalcuable number of years of inventory. If we look at todays units sales, we have almost 4 years of inventory.
Less people are moving here, or anywhere for that matter. Notice Yun is getting closer to the truth but seems well behind the curve.
According to 60 Minutes — the new Millenials don’t rent. They live with Mom and Dad.
Anyone see that? I had to laugh — whatever makes these ‘experts’ think that Corporate America has to put up with spoiled brats? It just made me think that if I chose not to retire until later in life — well, my job would be secure!
They’re not all spoiled. But it’s hard to pay rent or a mortgage with five and six figures in student loans.
“They’re not all spoiled. But it’s hard to pay rent or a mortgage with five and six figures in student loans.”
Another scam that will go the way of the dodo bird once kids wise-up to the fact that paying $100,000 to go to school to get out making $42,000/year doesn’t make sense. If everyone has a college degree, yet everyone can’t be top dog, that just means salaries have to get diluted. Labor supply and demand. Gen X and Gen Y have been duped into the college debt trap. At some point people will wake up and realize the only money in a college education is in the colleges themselves. Just like the only money in hairdressing is in beauty schools.
The right price might be ZERO with a stipend to pay for taxes and insurance for several years thrown in to the deal.
As if being newlyweds automatically qualifies a couple to become homeowners.
strange when i was younger nobody i knew bought a house soon after they married. Everybody rented….my parents rented the 2nd floor of my grandmothers house, heck my aunt did the same thing, very cheap rent allows you to really save up for a house.
The only ones i knew that bought a house were usually given the option of a big wedding or a big down payment by the parents. Amazing how many people back then opted for the house.
Yea, that’s a real interesting “old school” concept.
I managed to save $65,000 over the past 6.5 years for another house. I have only one problem. 3 years ago, the prices went up $100,000, on average, so I have effectively lost $35,000 for saving.
Had I bought in 2002, with 15,000 down, i would have been way ahead of the game.
What this credit bubble has proven is that savers are losers.
Um, prices are coming down. Keep your chin up.
“Savers are losers.” Exactly, x2. We were losers after 2002, and now are about to be made even bigger losers with inflation.
I am getting married in August, and there’s no way we will be buying any time soon. We rent a four bedroom outside Boston for $1200 - if we bought, the mortgage would be at least double that. The wife-to-be knows to not even bring the subject up.
These guys bought a condo before they got married.
…and I’ll betcha they are no more than 25yrs old.
Used to be that there was NO WAY the bank would finance a mortgage to an unmarried couple without alot of skin in the game and PROOF that you had saved the money all by yourself, “no cash gifts”, and six months of expenses in the bank.
It was easier for a single person meeting those requirements than a unmarried live-in couple to get the bank to finance.
We have a LONG way to go before the banks recalibrate their expectations and adjust their lending standards to reflect risk in mortgage lending.
Going back to Old School standards is gonna exclude alot of 21 year olds from getting housing.
Too Bad.
I didn’t feel “ready” to even think about buying a house until I was in my early 30’s…..
..
We bought our first property when I was 23 years old after renting for all of 8 months. (This is 10 years ago, almost exactly.) We had hardly anything in the bank but through “gifts” managed to scrap up a 5% down payment.
We bought mostly because I figured out that by owning we’d get a lower monthly payment than renting. We owned a condo for 3 years which required renovation and got none because we couldn’t afford it and then a fixer-upper house for about 7 years.
In retrospect, a prolonged period of renting would have done us good. I feel we lost a little bit of my kid’s babyhood because we were too busy with building repair. We just now finished aquiring half decent furniture because all of our spare cash went to building improvements.
We learned alot about houses and home building but most of all we learned to be greatful that the landlord comes to fix the facuet.
I agree - used to be newly married couples expected to struggle and save for a few years before buying a house. You also had to have an account at the bank and some savings in that account. I also recall you would have to prove where the money for the down payment came from. Now it’s all instant gratification. Young folks expect to maintain their parents’ level of lifestyle from the get go.
“Forcing them to BUY homes?” Ever heard of renting, Yun?
I think there is a pent-up demand, but it’s from 1) the people who either were already on the sidelines while housing was going inexplicably higher; and 2) the people who were speculating and are looking to get back in to make some more easy money. But these people are all closely watching prices, waiting for them to drop substantially. Hypothetically, if prices dropped, say, 50% tomorrow, there would be a quick rebound. But that ain’t gonna happen. So, we’ll get a long, slow, decline; many of the speculators will move on to the next get-rich-quick scheme, and so it goes. Speaking as one who falls into that pent-up demand category, I can tell you that it gets easier to wait every day as things qre unwinding. Today in Philly, we got the first report that prices are declining. Pass the popcorn, the good part’s coming up.
“Speaking as one who falls into that pent-up demand category, I can tell you that it gets easier to wait every day as things qre unwinding.”
EXACTLY Mikey. I’m amazed how my wifes priorities have changed dramatically as this thing unwinds. In fact she’s a bit of a nazi about not buying. As with us all here, she was in utter disbelief when RE continued to boom through 2004. During spring/summer of ‘05 she became convinced that something very very distorted had ocurred which was about the same time I started reading this blog (April ‘05?). I could lose my job today and live comfortably where we are for many years. I don’t want the crushing taxes, maintenance tasks/costs and never ending improvements that are associated with owning right now. I’ve earned a small pile of cash due to the mobility I wouldn’t have if I were tied down to a mortgage however small it might be.
I will strike when the getting is good and when Exeter is ready. Not until then. I speculate that we’re still early in the first inning of the fallout. In the meantime, I’ll continued to jam $1000/week in a 5.5% account.
I’m amazed how my wifes priorities have changed dramatically as this thing unwinds.
Ex - I’m still working on the wife. Just when I thought she was coming around to understand the market, she started pushing for the new construction down the street!
That is one of the problems with Florida..they don’t seem to undestand that couples getting married and having kids need JOBS that provide for the expensive cost of living..Florida doesn’t have that..it has and will always be a low wage earning state…college educated, married, couples, are leaving in droves..why should they work 2 jobs to pay for a mortgage in a 2×2 box, when states around them like GA,SC,NC offer affordable housing and employment..
Ben:
The following is Shillers view in contrast to the NAR and YUN’s view:
Yale University economist Robert Shiller, co-developer of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, told Reuters Monday he believes the housing market’s slide is by no means nearing its conclusion. Shiller said not only are forecasts of a bottom in 2008 probably wrong, but 2008 could see a decline even worse than that of 2007. “There is a probability of a continuing decline for a period of years, bringing prices in many cities down in the 10s of percent,” he said. “The bottom is hard to predict. I do not see it imminent and it could be five or 10 years too.”
“Housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes, Yun said. ‘The pent-up demand is there,’ he said.”
Oh, Fun Yun….yeah, people do all that stuff…you don’t call that “pent-up demand”. You call that “renting-until-you-can-afford-a house-on-your-income-because-the-financed-party-is-over”.
They don’t get “forced” to do anything.
What Yun calls pent up demand I call people screwed by inflated housing prices.
Those who bought at those inflated prices were screwed even more. The NAR said those people were “forced to buy” because otherwise they would be “priced out forever.” Something tells me that for years the number of people forced to sell will be more than the number “forced to buy.”
It’s not looking good for the Florida economy in the short term. These guys need to understand that the only thing that will fix the problems are lower land and housing prices, which is exactly what they are fighting against. Sure there will be defaults, but that is how an economy digests malinvestments.
Ben, from a sales perspective, it makes absolutely ZERO sense. Yeah I’m stating the obvious but it bears repeating.
exeter,
With all respect, this is more dire than a mere sales goal. If they don’t start a climb-down soon, this is going to turn into a disaster, if it can even be avoided, IMO.
Prices aside, I wouldn’t want to buy in Florida right now due to outragous property taxes and insurance rates. Until they can figure that out, Florida is going to be hurting.
Property taxes and insurance is all directly related to the sales price. Taxes on a $100,000 house are about $2000 per year. Insurance would be another $1200.
What’s unaffordable about that?
Five years ago, houses were typically running around 100k.
OK show me a $100K “house” thats not in a trailer park in tampa in 2007
My whole point here is that PRICES are the problem,
not insurance and taxes.
Prices are still ridiculous, but falling.
I recently passed on a fixer-upper (2800 sf) on 1.25 ac. for $115k. It was in Plant City, so a little far from town, and needed a lot of work.
I have seen condo ads now going close to 100k for a 2 bdr.
The whole problem is PRICE.
Forget, prices aside………..it’s something else, like taxes.
Taxes on my 100k house: $800 a year, insurance, $700. Just south of Raleigh, NC.
Ben, I just recently checked the listings for a house that was 1800-2000 sqft, pool and backed up to a conservation lot in the $200K - $225K range in the Northwest section of Tampa. The realtor said there was nothing in this price range and said I need to go up on my price. I said no thanks, find some other buyer because I would move before buying an artificially inflated property. What this did tell me is that prices have not fallen enough in the Tampa Bay area to bring back affordability despite inventory that keeps on growing.
‘inventory that keeps on growing’
If one studies supply and demand, it is easy to understand why this will continue. At these price levels, builders continue to have an incentive to build. As I will show in my California post later today, builders are actually ramping up! And we were told yesterday that builders are selling off raw land at 70-80% discounts, which will only add to the potential profits for future development.
This is like a cat that climbs too high up a tree, there is only one way to go, ultimately.
Your price range is probably what something in Lutz or Citrus Park cost back in 2002-03. You’re not being irrational at all.
Your price range is probably what something in Lutz or Citrus Park cost back in 2002-03.
I do remember these price levels. In fact a 2050sqft home on a golf course in Heritage Harbour sold for $185,000 in 2002. That was a new Lennar house.
We are moving to Wilmington,NC
Does any one have idea about the Wilmington,NC housing market?I was checking some of the house for sale. The asking prices in some cases is 40-50 % more of the recent purchases.
Was surprised to see $2.0-1.0 Million houses being forclosed.
-Maria
Isn’t Wilmington kinda of a ghetto? Even before i rent anywhere i get the landlord to wait one day, so i can go back at night and sit and watch the neighborhood.
What looks good during the day could be very scary at night.
Funny, my wife and I have always doen the same thing. I have gone back at night to find a booming (literally) night life after 10:00 pm. We laugh and keep moving!
Yes, I have lived there for 12 years and still have a place there. The housing market has come to a dead stop in Wilmington. Realtors will tell you otherwise. There is little to no industry to support the rise in prices other than medical, retirees and travel industry. From 1999-2003 it was impossible to sell a home there. Wilmington has been growing steadily in the last 25 years since I-40 was put in, but so has the entire NC coast. Don’t believe the lie that the realtors will tell you. It is bad there as sales have plummeted. The realestate assesements by the city were not performed since 1997 because property values were so poor and had gone down (although thus is suppose to be done by law every 3 years). Now, the tax values are to be reassesed in December 2007 and the heck is going to hit the fan as the values are going to be overpriced and taxes will shoot thru the roof.
If I were you I would rent a house. There are plenty to be had for $1000-1250/month. Even that I would try to negotiate.
Remember, Wilmington was mentioned by NAR as a place to invest (38% return) so it was Californicated. Realtors told me Californian equity locusts were buying 4-5 houses at a time in the $200,000 range in 2005, that they are hung with now.
I don’t know about Wilmington but a collegue sold her Davis home and moved to Durham. Sher and her hubbie are renting a 4/2 just off campus a block from the golf course for $1200. This is supposed to be a pretty nice historical district.
For the record, I am completely and painfully jealous. I told her she needs to find me a job at Duke asap!
I’ve been watching Wilmington a bit, since I have relatives there. It’s bubbly - don’t buy. It’s a “late” bubble much like Seattle - prices have still been going up, however they’re still out of whack. The OFHEO price index is 245, but was only 150 in early 2004 - just 3.5 years ago. A 60% rise in 3.5 years is not natural, and prices will come down soon.
Parts of Wilmington are really nice actually - the waterfront etc., and there are good beaches around. There are a lot of bad areas too though, as aNYCdj says.
Gave you a long reply but not showing up. . Long story short, I have lived therew for 12 years. Wilmington is in serious trouble. Equity locusts , rising tax rates on homes, not the industry to support the high home prices. Rent and negotiate with the landlord for a better rent deal. $1000-1250/month will get you a nice place. ALSO aNYCdj is correct. Make sure you are in the right neighbourhood.
I am going to rent for now. Will wait till the cost per sq ft comes down to around $100.00 or less than that.
Here are the result of some investigations based on the property records.
1640 sq ft home
Current Wish price $210,000
Sale History
Oct 04 Sale Price $135,000
Oct 95 Sale Price $107,500
Nov 04 Sale Price $105,000
1711 sq ft home
Current Wish price $225,000
Sale History
Dec 01 Sale Price $142,000
2425 sq ft home
Current Wish price $269,500
JUL-03 $154,000
MAY-97 $155,000
-Maria
I’d say that the Coastal Southeast at this point is a liability in terms of buying a house. Just like much of the Southeast, it is susceptible to in-migration from it’s northern and Southern(FL) neighbors-aka- equity locusts. This in turn creates the problem of property being valued higher than the economy and job market will support. Plus you will get taxed for whatever the city deems your house is worth.
Lastly, I have relatives in Willmington too. My impression was that the area was extremely stratified. Lots and lots of poor, impoverished people and lots of “snow birds” and retired people all mixed into an area that’s sort of isolated from the rest of the state.
If I were to move to the Southeast, I’d stay away from coastal areas and focus on areas that are closer to major metros with economies focussed on actual industry instead of retirees.
“Canadian snowbirds are rethinking Florida. ‘I haven’t met one person this year that wants to stay in Florida,’ said Boynton Beach resident Dory Kilburn, who heads the Boynton Intracoastal Group, a Canadian advocacy organization. ‘They all say they are getting out.’”
“In the last few months, Gerry Brissenden said, the majority of people he has talked to say they are planning to leave Florida. It’s not a small number. ‘We have held meetings throughout Ontario. I have had perhaps 5,000 people at meetings,’ he said. ‘Of those coming to Florida, about 70 percent are saying, ‘We are going to sell our place.’”
Wow, Canadians world class mellow people…
All leaving warm weather,
In droves, quite willingly.
Must be our bad?
And in the face of a stronger Canadian dollar.
In reality, however, the 70% are saying “We are going to TRY to sell our place”.
The music has stopped and everybody is pretty much stuck in place.
The game of musical houses is over.
I don’t get the Florida appeal - why aren’t other southern states as popular. A tax thing?
Mikey, as I recall from above, you live in Penna where state income tax is a flat 3%. All the states between Penna and Florida have income taxes higher than Penna, while Fla itself has ZERO. Great place to RENT.
Also, take a look at weather maps. The temperature gradient from Phila to Jacksonville is shallow (gradual), but the temperature rise from Jville to Miami is often quite large in winter. South Florida has a distinctly different physica climate in winter, because of the effect of having warm water on both sides of the state.
In South Florida during the winter, it is much, much warmer than it is in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, etc. Being able to wear t-shirts and shorts 355 days a year does have a certain appeal. It does for me.
“Canadian snowbirds are rethinking Florida. ‘I haven’t met one person this year that wants to stay in Florida,’ said Boynton Beach resident Dory Kilburn, who heads the Boynton Intracoastal Group, a Canadian advocacy organization. ‘They all say they are getting out.’”
“In the last few months, Gerry Brissenden said, the majority of people he has talked to say they are planning to leave Florida. It’s not a small number. ‘We have held meetings throughout Ontario. I have had perhaps 5,000 people at meetings,’ he said. ‘Of those coming to Florida, about 70 percent are saying, ‘We are going to sell our place.’”
Great! But who is going to buy from them? Are there any greater fools left out there?
“Although the housing market has slowed, Gov. Charlie Crist said there is ‘no way’ the state or Southwest Florida has slipped into a recession.”
“‘I feel great about the economy,’ Crist said as he left a political fundraiser.”
“Economic numbers in the region are not quite as positive. Taxable sales are declining, housing permits are down 70 percent, unemployment is on the rise and business bankruptcies have doubled in the last two years.”
A politican at his best. Ignore the data and reality and it makes everythings just fine. Southwest Florida is clearly in a recession, even chain restaurants are going out of business.
>
I think that these are going to be a major casualty of the debacle. Way too many were built across the country, and now that many people are going to have to pay with cold, hard cash it will dawn on them just how over priced these eateries have become.
A received an email from a regional casual dining chain called Mimi’s. They are offering takeout family dinners (pot roast, meat loaf turkey, etc.) with dessert for $39. These are supposed to feed 4-6 people. If you dined in at Mimi’s a dinner for 4 would run about $80 with sodas and tip. I think that they have seen the handwriting on the wall.
But at least he “feels good about the economy” In todays world of delusion and make believe i guess this works……..NOT!!!!!
I live and work here it is changing and the pace has quickened.
I feel good about beer. Beer doesn’t make me feel good the next day. Maybe I should start using Charlie logic!
I agree about SW Fla. being in a recession. Job loses and business closings are everywhere. Of course, there are still a lot of people here. And snowbirds are returning. The annual traffic nightmare is ramping up now. Commute to work already takes 10 minutes longer.
I think we have a governor who is going to loose a few paternity lawsuits in the near future. I can’t think of any other reason a Florida governor would be so optimistic other than taking advantage of all the ladies he meets via “duties in office.”
Got popcorn?
Neil
are you serious… haven’t paid attention to the GOv of FL issue. paternity? serious? wow.
nah, during his campaign,there was an attempt to name him as the father of a teenager (result of a one night stand).
It didn’t fly.
Personally I think it was an attempt to draw attention away from his probable same sex choices.
Not that there is anything wrong with that, but just come out and get it over with.
The NAR seems determined to completely discredit themselves and by consistently trying to disingeniously disarm the situation, they are doomed. Is there anybody down there at the NAR headquarters who might be thinking long-term, and figuring out what niche they could fill while this market goes down??? Nope. It’s all about trying the juice idiots into buying potential disasters.
This guy ‘Yun’ reminds me of ‘Hop Sing’ - the chinese laundry boy on the old Ponderosa TV Show.
He runs around saying ‘Very Good, Very Good.’
Such a SAD ending for someone who gave us some great entertainment.
For 14 years Hop Sing was the cook on the series Bonanza. Victor was born and raised in San Francisco in the Chinatown district
Victor began acting in 1938 under the name Victor Yung. At that time he had been working for a chemical company and brought some samples of a new flame retardent to 20th Century Fox to sell. Instead of buying the chemicals, they tested him for the part of Charlie Chan’s number two son. He then appeared in 11 Chan movies.
Victor was an accomplish Cantonese cook, and penned the book “Great Wok Cookbook” in 1974. Sadly Victor died on November 9, 1980 from a gas leak at the age of 65 penniless.
Probably bought a house in Florida.
“Is there anybody down there at the NAR headquarters who might be thinking long-term”
Apparently he left and they hired Lereah.
The Herald Tribune from Florida. “Although the housing market has slowed, Gov. Charlie Crist said there is ‘no way’ the state or Southwest Florida has slipped into a recession.”
“‘I feel great about the economy,’ Crist said as he left a political fundraiser.”
_________________________________________________
Is this type of denial not a religion? For anyone to suggest anything other than a scorching hot economy is downright blasphemous these days. Even with all the evidence to suggest that the economy on Main Street has been in the gutter for years, these liars continue to spew lies. When will the masses finally say enough is a enough?
The Florida version of “Mission Accomplished” maybe???
After meeting Crist, he reminds me of the govenor on the old Benson TV show. Just a stump-dumb grin without a brain behind it.
“stump-dumb grin without a brain behind it” Sounds like Webster for “politician.”
The Southeastern governors have been praying for rain
Crist almighty himself did so, in fact.
Just preying on their audience…
They waited until the 10-day forcast predictied rain, then planned their pray for rain ralley for the day before. Like magic, there was a slight shower the next day…. but not NEARLY as much as had been predicted.
Proof that praying for rain causes it to rain less?
“Randall Holcombe, a Florida State University economics professor, said that the state’s boom times are to blame for the bad times. He said a drop in the economy was almost inevitable following the combination of a national real estate boom and the dramatic retail bump following hurricanes in 2004 and 2005.”
A rare nod to reality from a member of our state’s generally doltish economics community. Even that halting statement, however, probably has ruined Prof. Holcombe’s chances of ever teaching at UF, which has its own “Center for Real Estate Studies.”
Crist’s comment is disappointing. When politicians keep saying that our economy is great, when it obviously is not, they damage their own credibility and the legitimacy of their offices.
“Crist’s comment is disappointing. When politicians keep saying that our economy is great, when it obviously is not, they damage their own credibility and the legitimacy of their offices.”
Amen, snake. “Good Time Charlie” needs to get a clue. I had a long discussion yesterday with one of his citizen representatives. he actually does know we’re in deep doo doo here, but he won’t say it up front. He doesn’t like to offend people. Instead, he’s off globe trotting to see what kind of trade deal he can whup with Brazil and Chile on behalf of Florida. He wants to get us some ethanol and do what Brazil did for its citizens. Not a bad idea, trading with Brazil for ethanol, but where would we get the cars to put it in?
“where would we get the cars to put it in? ”
China of course. You know…… that country that enslaves it’s people??? The country our leadership insists we deal with because the “free market” voodoo priests say doing so is good for us????
China & other offshore sources…S.Korea is fighting hard against the pressuring of the US to buy all their Rice from China instead of growing their own. S.Korea is dead set against buying RICE = food, from their centuries old enemy for something as basic as food. S.Korea already makes enough rice for their country. But the US is trying to force the issue.
What does that mean for the US citizen, well the ethanol, cars etc all come from other countries and where will we be if …you all ‘get it’.
Why does Fla need Brazil? I thought Clewiston was the Sugar Cane Capital of the World. Or are the cane fields all covered with condos now?
It will sound crazy now, but my wife and I thought we had maybe waited too long to sell our house in el lay, when we listed it in June of 2005.
Imagine how people must think nowadays?
my best friend stepped off his 780 sqr foot condo in Redondo, for the princely sum of 478k in ‘06.
walked with 190k.
He thanks me at least once a month.
You were prompt, aladin. I got lucky finding a customer for my Maine house in summer 2006, and probably wouldn’t have been bright enough to do it then, had I not started lurking on this blog early spring 06. I took up reading HBB because I was looking for a Calif debacle, but the blog made me realize the phenomenon would be national.
‘None of us would have bought here if it weren’t for the amenities center,’
—————–
Uhhh, what amenities center?
We have a Toll Bros. subdivision near us that is just like this. A few hundred lakefront lots with promises of community pool, fitness center, and community dock. None of them exist after almost 2 years of development, but they have these two HUGE dirt mounds (50~60 ft tall, 200 ft long ramps). Amazingly, they have found about a half-dozen buyers for their $400k “lakeview” homes over the past year and a half.
Same here, in Cincinnati area, where Ryan homes walked away from several subdivisions. In one subdivision, they were the sole builders and planned over 200 homes, community center & pool, etc, etc. About a year ago they built the first home, and people moved in. Then they built 3 more homes over the next several months, then month-balled the subdivison.
So a total of 4 house out of a planned 200+ were built. No community rec center was built. No community swimming pool was built.
The 4 current homeowners are very unhappy, to say the least!
Proves your planners are stupid. In developments I’ve been involved with, the stipulation is that the amenities get built first.
You are correct!
Its called the development community controling the political community and the average citizen is clueless.
And to think that the city of Tucson has similar things at the recreation center in my neighborhood. I joined the gym inside the rec center. Costs all of $60 a year, and the camaraderie is MUCH better than any health club I’ve been to.
Drove through San Jacinto/Hemet yesterday to see the same thing…just like Lennar did in Escena in PSP..just left walls up and no houses..like someone told them in the middle of the night to skeedaddle or else you varmint..Sad to see all the “developements” deserted. One Shea developement in San Jacinto was RIGHT NEXT to a DAIRY farm. I grew up there and know intimately the lovely smells downvalley so living AT a Dairy farm in an overpriced developement… good thing the developement isn’t happening , just block walls a’tumblin.
A BLIGHT on the landscape and eyes.
‘This is a battle between buyers and sellers,’ Yun noted.”
Yun has it wrong again, it is not a battle between buyers and sellers, it is a battle to bring back affordability!
Battle? The REIC is in its last throes- it is out of ammunition, its troops have been decimated, its supply lines have been cut and no reinforcements are on the way. The buyers will soon claim final victory and rout those that remain standing. After that, the process of picking over the dead bodies will ensue- only to be followed by the carrion eaters, who will tear the rotting flesh from their corpses…
I will not shoot until I see the sickly green in the seller’s eyes.
And, in this regard, I wonder of the leaders of the REIC will have the honor and dignity to fall upon their swords- for some reason, I think not…
“Umeraite No Ne Otstupaite”
rofl, Perfect!
Hey Wall Street/K Street/treasury robbing crony capitalists….. Here’s human side of your greed. I hope you’re proud of yourselves.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/weekinreview/20070902_FORECLOSE_FEATURE/index.html
We HAVE to get someone to liveblog the unimaginiable bu11$hit sure to be busting out of the doors of that convention. Any underground RE agents attending?
Wouldn’t they need to rent a stadium for this many?
What killed the Indians wasn’t bullets, it was our diseases…
90% of the Indians where I live, perished of Measles.
They had no immunity to something that is a minor childhood episode to us, and dropped like flies.
The surviving Indians would get together for years to follow, holding “Ghost Dances”, marathon 5 day sessions, trying to conjure back loved ones that had all died so suddenly.
It didn’t work.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Dance
This NAR convention is a Ghost Dance.
“Residents worry that plans to build 460 houses and a 27,000 square-foot clubhouse won’t materialize. Only 80 homes have been finished and another 100 or so are in various stages of construction, said resident Nancy Darr.”
This sounds like it could be like any failed project in many a tourist trap town, down Mexico way….
Ugh, community centers - shared ammenities…what malarkey. Whatever happened to buying a house in and of itself instead of depending on the grace of some HB to increase its value externally? Up my way all those yuppies buying condoze for the pools and private theaters are also in a for a shock. By looking at the goobermint’s flubs how hard is it to conclude that “shared” facilities are a bad idea?
I don’t agree. Well-established condo communities are not in trouble. At least, not in much more trouble than any other set of homeowners. Condo prices do slump worse than SFH prices, but the horror stories in condo land today are mostly about projects that didn’t get finished before the market stalled. Ninety percent of my loans are on condoized property (trailer-park lots with shared pool/ballroom/laundromat/etc). The HOAs would be having problems if there were waves of foreclosures in these places, but there aren’t. Low prices win the day.
“Housing will start to recover next year, if only because people will keep getting married, having babies, changing jobs and retiring, forcing them to buy or sell homes, Yun said. ‘The pent-up demand is there,’ he said.”
Yeah Yun…Dream ON!
There is finally FEAR out there in your RE CON GAME and that is killing your BS “Hosing Market” and PROFITS.
Some people DON’T have to ACTUALLY catch a falling knife, get burned with a hot stove or buy an overpriced POS to learn that PAIN HURTS
They just have to watch the blood and listen to the screaming and to figure out that, RE in this case, ISN’T something that they WANT to SUFFER at this time merely to feed your greedy asses in the RE Industry !
There was no mention of rising foreclosures in the USA Today puff piece regarding Jacksonville. I have said it before and will again — Jacksonville lags the rest of the state. A couple months ago Orlando looked like it was immune. It doesn’t, anymore. Heck, several weeks ago, REIC members were saying the Carolinas were immune. It’s NOT different here.
“One landscaping contractor went so far as to remove plants from a community in Georgia, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution reported.”
There’s always a silver lining and think of the business possibilities for this brave new world, eh?
Repo Plant Man (rpm)
Has a nice ring to it…
Published on: 11/13/07
Lenders have scheduled 5,244 metro Atlanta properties for public foreclosure sales next month, according to statistics released Tuesday by Alpharetta-based Equity Depot.
The monthly total represents a 23 percent drop from the record-setting 6,809 properties that were scheduled for sale this month. But the latest total is still the second-largest monthly figure ever posted for the 13-county area of metro Atlanta.
The failing mortgages tend to be high-interest, adjustable-rate loans, said Barry Bramlett, an Equity Depot vice president.
“It’s still a subprime problem,” he said
http://tinyurl.com/3xd3gm
“Lenders have scheduled 5,244 metro Atlanta properties for public foreclosure sales next month, according to statistics released Tuesday by Alpharetta-based Equity Depot.”
We can put a positive spin on this. At least it’s 5,244 households that won’t have to use the water!!
“‘I feel great about the economy,’ Crist said as he left a political fundraiser.”
I can’t believe I voted for this man. The same guy says that insurance companies are greedy for wanting to recover losses from 8 hurricanes in 2 years. This is crazy talk!
Yin vs Yang vs Yun
“At the moment, the housing market is stalled because those would-be buyers are holding out for lower prices, while sellers are waiting for prices to rebound. ‘This is a battle between buyers and sellers,’ Yun noted.”
My money is on the buyers!
What I really get a Kick out of is all this talk of Bargains. When the world is full of houses that are being forclosed on because in reality only about 1% of the population can actually afford them and everyone in the world is a Real Estate ” Investor” but everyone is losing money hoping for some “Rich Sucker” to come and bale them out, How is a 50k Discount on a $600,000 with 6k a month or more carrying costs , a Bargain?
I bought and sold everything for 30 Years. When some desperate wino sales You some antique signs for 30 bucks and You sell them for $2800 , that’s a bargain. Once I bought the entire fixtures for a closed 20,000 sf Nightclub for $210.
$50,000 dollars worth of lumber and materials on a 1/4 acre dirt for a half a million will never be a bargain. Once People realize the Whole RE Scam will never play out again in our lifetime You will be amazed what You can buy that used lumber and that little piece of dirt for.
I’m making the move to St. Pete, (work is close to Feather Sound) in a month or so. House prices still seem too high, so does anyone have any suggestions on where to rent? I’m thinking of the Echelon in Carillon Park.
..
Depends upon what type of rental you are looking for.
Check out Largo. Feather Sound is kinda “higher-end” in places. Largo is close and may offer cheaper, yet decent rentals.
They have some decent complexes there. Rents are becoming more competitive in the St. Pete area.
Good Luck.
..
Bantering Bear,
(From OR Thread)
I really appreciated your comments yesterday about “The Delusionals” that just like listing their home/land (as you put it) at “an absurd price” just so they can revel in their “FantasyLand” and daydream about “how wonderful life would be… ah”.
Spot on! Well said. You know (like even the most adult and bearish among us) I too, have my little fantasy world. I’m not in the least ashamed to admit it. It’s just that (like an ADULT) I refuse to waste other people’s time and/or JERK THEM AROUND to facilitate it! Fantasies and daydreams have their place, and that “place” is best kept to YOURSELF! You’ve helped me cope with the frustration of dealing with real-tards!
Many thanks,
DinOR
Ask a bartender- I went out last night to celebrate some good news on what could have been and life threatening health issue. (Whew!)
I rarely bar hop but I thought, ‘Hey you only live once and I am happy.”
I went to 4 of my old haunts for a drink at each and I was alone in 1, 1 of 4 people in another, and 1 of about 5-6 in the other two. These used to be happening as they say. One of them is a hangout for 30 somethings and it was always busy. I asked the bartender who I have known for 30 years what has happened? She said simply, “people are broke”.
“At the moment, the housing market is stalled because those would-be buyers are holding out for lower prices, while sellers are waiting for prices to rebound. ‘This is a battle between buyers and sellers,’ Yun noted.”
@ Halftime, here’s the score between the battle of the titans:
Buyers 42
Sellers 4
If you look at the tape, 3 of those seller points were due to cheating in collusion with the referees…
“Canadian snowbirds are rethinking Florida. ‘I haven’t met one person this year that wants to stay in Florida,’ said Boynton Beach resident Dory Kilburn, who heads the Boynton Intracoastal Group, a Canadian advocacy organization. ‘They all say they are getting out.’”
“In the last few months, Gerry Brissenden said, the majority of people he has talked to say they are planning to leave Florida. It’s not a small number. ‘We have held meetings throughout Ontario. I have had perhaps 5,000 people at meetings,’ he said. ‘Of those coming to Florida, about 70 percent are saying, ‘We are going to sell our place.’”
Well that right there aughta be the final word on foreigners saving US real estate. Canadians have some decent pre-requisites too; reason to get out of the cold in the winter, stronger currency.