How Much More Is It Really Going To Go Down?
The Herald Tribune reports from Florida. “North Port and neighboring Charlotte County, each with tens of thousands of vacant lots, are now home to 1,200 abandoned construction sites, yet another aftershock from region’s real estate market collapse. North Port and Sarasota County combined have about 540 of these sites, including about 200 in North Port. Charlotte, with far more vacant lots, has an estimated 1,000.”
“‘The city issued too many permits too quickly/ for building homes, said Mary Heins, whose North Port house sits across the street from an abandoned homesite.”
“Skyrocketing real estate values in recent years meant frenzied buying and building of houses across the region. Some builders, confident that the high volumes would continue, overextended themselves, taking on too many projects and without enough money to finish them when the buying stopped.”
“Some speculators saw the market turn sour and just walked away rather than take greater losses paying to complete homes that had dropped in value.”
The Miami Herald from Florida. “Hollywood home builder Tousa, which posted a $622 million loss in the latest quarter, said there is substantial doubt about its ability to remain in business.”
“The company is weighing whether to follow Fort Lauderdale home builder Levitt and Sons into Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.”
“The home builder is shedding its home sites to account for the weak demand for housing. It abandoned rights to buy 9,400 home sites, forfeiting $167 million in deposits.”
“Whether Tousa can continue operating will depend on its ability to exchange a large portion of $1.7 billion in borrowings for equity stakes in the company, according to Wednesday’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.”
“The industry is ‘going to be a shadow of itself once we get through this downturn,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. ‘Everyone was too optimistic.’”
The St Petersburg Times from Florida. “One builder’s stock trades at 25 cents. Another suffered cancellations that chopped two-thirds of its business. A third builder is $2-billion in debt. Those three builders - Tousa Inc., Beazer Homes and Standard Pacific Homes - have been important props in the economy of the Tampa Bay area.”
“In the recent housing boom, thousands of their homes spread out over the suburbs of Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando and Pinellas counties. Now they’re all the subject of bankruptcy rumors.”
“Tousa said it ‘faces many challenges and is considering all available restructuring and reorganization alternatives.’ Translation: Bankruptcy is a possibility.”
“Standard Pacific is the No. 3 builder in the Tampa Bay area. Corporate analysts have soured on the company’s $2-billion debt. The builder also suffers from a narrow focus on three highly stressed housing markets: California, Florida and Arizona.”
“Other builders prominent in the Tampa Bay area, including Centex and Pulte Homes, aim to survive an industrywide unraveling by selling houses at bargain prices and slashing jobs.”
“Tampa Bay area housing analyst Marvin Rose predicts the slow market, home starts are down more than half this year, will claim the scalps of more builders. It’s happened before…in the recession of the early 1990s. ‘There were a ton of builders that left the market. They just pulled out of town,’ Rose said. ‘I suspect there will be a few this time that decide to leave or go bankrupt.’”
The Bradenton Herald from Florida. “According to the Manatee County MLS, the glut of homes on the market appears to have plateaued and has been ebbing downward since the high-water mark in March. In March, there were 5,968 homes on the market. In October, that number had been reduced to 5,362.”
“By contrast, in October 2005, there were 2,095 homes for sale. That same month, there were 242 sales. In October, local Realtors reported 104 sales, and the median price was $277,000, down from a median of $333,366 the same month in 2005.”
“The number of homes on the market needs to fall dramatically before a true correction can occur, said Dan Forbes, broker (in) Bradenton. A healthy market has about a six-month supply of inventory, compared to the current 36-month supply, Forbes said.”
“Forbes stresses that pricing a home appropriately for the market will save both the seller and the agent time and money. ‘Realtors are their own worst enemies when they take overpriced listings,’ Forbes said.”
“Sunday’s big headline in the Herald must have sent everyone’s blood pressure through the roof: ‘Area property values to dip; but taxes up?’ What?”
“But that’s the report from the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s Office. On next year’s tax bill, property values could fall by 5 percent on single-family homes. That’s right, next year’s taxes are determined by this year’s property values, so you won’t see the current drop in value until tax notices are shipped out in November 2008.”
“Try to sell your home now for just a 5 percent drop in value, and all we can say is good luck with that.”
“Realtor sales figures for the Bradenton-Sarasota market show the median price plunging $43,300 to $244,300 over the course of a year, from September 2006 to 2007. That’s a 15 percent tumble - nowhere near 5 percent.”
From First Coast News in Florida. “You see them on the rise, but some condos and other development projects are starting to halt their upward movement. The Shipyards development and a new Publix in San Marco are all pushed back. ‘Unfortunately, the people of San Marco are going to have to wait a long time for a Publix,’ says Raymond Rodriguez with the Real Estate Strategy Center.”
“‘Well, the demand is not there right now for presale construction. People are sitting on the fence waiting to see what’s happening,’ says realtor Paul Pierce.”
“According to the Strategy Center, since 2000 more than 12,000 apartments have changed to condos in Jacksonville. Now, 22% of those condos are empty.”
“‘At one time the market was great, they made the announcement for condos. The market changed, they reversed themselves and went back to apartments,’ says Rodriguez.”
“‘The good thing is…we did not go crazy overbuilding these high price condos like in south Florida. We just made a lot of announcements which never came to be,’ says Rodriguez.”
The New York Post on Florida. “Miami’s once-sizzling realestate market has certainly cooled off, but perhaps not by as much as redicted. In a city oozing with the vested interests of owners, renters, potential buyers, investors, brokers and developers, it’s difficult to get an honest assessment of the market.”
“‘I think that you’ll see prices coming down to the 2004 level, but not much below that,’ says Dr. William Hardin, a real-estate professor at Miami’s Florida International University. ‘We’re going to have to forget 2006 and part of 2005. I would try to make a transaction at 2004 or 2005 price points - they would be a good starting point for negotiations.’”
“Karla San Emeterio, a 28-year-old teacher, bought a 582-square-foot studio this past August for just $149,000, or about $250 a square foot, at Loft 4, a 440-unit building in downtown Miami.”
“This price point is quite an aberration even for downtown Miami, which has more affordable condos than what you’ll find in South Beach. Smaller studio apartments in nearby new buildings such as One Miami or 50 Biscayne are on the market with asking prices in the mid $200,000s.”
“‘This type of thing wasn’t advertised very much at first,’ she explains. ‘I felt like it was very word-of-mouth, and you almost had to really look for [great deals] like this. And, of course, give up certain things, like parking.’”
“San Emeterio was required to put down just 5 percent when she signed the contract; she’ll pay another 5 percent at groundbreaking. She’s hoping her credit score will be good enough to get zero-percent-down financing at closing.”
“‘I know the market is bad … but, I mean, how much more is it really going to go down?’ she says. ‘Am I ever going to get a better deal than $150,000 in the heart of Miami? Sure, now may not be the best time to buy, but you can’t let a good opportunity pass you by.’”
The Daily Business Review from Florida. “Residents of the Club at Brickell Bay Plaza condominium came home one day to find they had no cable or Internet service, the result of the condo association falling months behind on payments to provider Primecast.”
“It was the latest service snafu for the troubled building and its association, which is struggling to make ends meet as many unit owners fail to make their monthly maintenance payments.”
“We are victims’ of speculators who bought condos intending to flip them but got stuck with the units after the prices peaked, said Diana Ospina, association president at the Club at Brickell Bay.”
The Daily Report from Georgia. “A ground breaking for One Museum Place, a super luxury condominium project slated for Peachtree Street in Midtown Atlanta, has been postponed indefinitely until the credit market loosens up and ‘we know where the economy is headed,’ said the project’s developer, John Wieland.”
“‘We decided to put it on hold until we get past the credit crunch,’ said Wieland, CEO of one of Atlanta’s largest home builders. Wieland said 15 buyers who placed $50,000 deposits on units will receive refunds. Wieland said he hopes to revive the project in a year or two.”
“Wieland said his team was negotiating financing for the $350 million project but didn’t have it in place before the credit market tightened six weeks ago in response to the collapse of the subprime mortgage lending industry.”
“‘That kind of building needs to be built in an upswing instead of a downswing,’ Wieland said about One Museum Place.”
“One Museum Place is one of at least six condo projects planned to bring a total of at least 175 $1 million-plus condo units to Atlanta. David Haddow, president of a real estate consulting firm, said it’s hard to tell how well this wave of luxury condo projects will perform, but said the sales pace for $1 million-plus condos in Atlanta hasn’t been good historically.”
“With the exception of a few projects…most of the condo projects with units carrying a $1 million-plus price tag built over the past decade have struggled, Haddow said.”
“‘It may change,’ Haddow said, adding that nobody knows how deep the demand is for that market. ‘The fact of the matter is, when you’ve got a million dollars to spend on a home, you’ve got all the choices.’”
The Atlanta Journal Constitution from Georgia. “Lenders have scheduled 5,244 metro Atlanta properties for public foreclosure sales next month, according to statistics released Tuesday by Equity Depot.”
“The monthly total is the second-largest monthly figure ever posted for the 13-county area of metro Atlanta.”
“The failing mortgages tend to be high-interest, adjustable-rate loans, said Barry Bramlett, an Equity Depot vice president. ‘It’s still a subprime problem,’ he said. About one in four metro Atlantans who purchased a home in recent years took out a high-interest mortgage, according to federal data.”
“Bramlett said he is also seeing an increase in the number of construction loans facing foreclosure. But he said these loans make up a small portion of the total.”
“So far this year, 53,365 foreclosure sales have been scheduled in metro Atlanta, well above the 44,971 total for all of 2006. This month’s total represents a 36 percent increase over the total for November 2006.”
‘Florida’s budget chasm opened to historic depths Wednesday as economists downgraded anticipated tax collections $2.5 billion over two years. ‘Florida is behaving as though we were in a national recession,’ said Amy Baker, coordinator for the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research.’
And even in the face of the budget shortfall, here’s Governor Good Time Charlie Crist saying he’s optimistic about Florida’s economy and doesn’t see a recession. Of course, on the other hand, he inked a deal with the Seminole Indians for a cut of their gambling proceeds, which OF COURSE will go to education.
Forget education in FLA, it’s a complete lost cause. The more money you throw at it, the worse it gets.
“Forget education in FLA, it’s a complete lost cause. The more money you throw at it, the worse it gets.”
That’s because you need to get educators out of administration. By the term administration alone, you should know that business people need to be there.
How is it a hotel can charge $99 for a regular night, $89 for a special convention rate, and $199 for a “teacher’s” convention? Because you have educators in administration! The waste is overwhelming.
“That’s because you need to get educators out of administration. By the term administration alone, you should know that business people need to be there.”
Although I agree with you about public schools being top heavy, the idea that business interests should be involved in education is preposterous.
“…the idea that business interests should be involved in education is preposterous.”
Not business interests, business people. A business minded person wouldn’t spend $10,000 for the copier that costs the general public $5,000.
He is not saying privatize he is saying put people in the administration who have MBA or MPA. I know very well Palm Beach County School Board. When they built the headquarters there about 15 years ago they spent hundreds of thousands just on landscaping. You would not believe the numbers of people who work there who would not be able to work at McDonalds due to absenteeism and just lack of skills. It has been a crony system for generations.
He is not saying privatize he is saying put people in the administration who have MBA or MPA. I know very well Palm Beach County School Board. When they built the headquarters there about 15 years ago they spent hundreds of thousands just on landscaping. You would not believe the numbers of people who work there who would not be able to work at McDonalds due to absenteeism and just plain lack of skills. It has been a crony system for generations.
Gotcha Andy. Leave it to flat to throw out a strawman argument.
I’ve been the guest speaker at public schools where the teacher showed up hung over and used mild profanity. Another teacher told me that money wasn’t the issue.
Anybody who has ever run a business would fire that guy in about a week. Oddly, he’s been working at that school for years.
schools are welfare distribution points
free breakfast.lunch
after school baby sitting
you can get text books for $5 a shot w the cd’s on ebay
Public school (as is public housing) is welfare - whether you participate in the free lunch or after school care programs or not.
I prefer to call them government schools, because the public has little say in what is taught and the government uses them to rewrite history or simply avoid anti-big government, anti-central bank, anti-religion, anti-personal responsibility teachings.
VT schools are relatively small and still somewhat community based entitites. Even in this state, however, it is discouraging how little the school responds to people who actually send their kids to school.
To a certain extent, I still do think we should fund public education. However, the government monopoly on them needs to stop. The collegiate system works reasonably well under the grant/loan system - I fail to see why it won’t work well in the K-12.
…because only a fraction of the public goes to college. And the drop-out rates in college make the lousiest secondary schools look like a New England prep academy.
Don’t like the way your local schools are working? Get involved. You are part of the public, too, and have as much say in their administration as anyone.
Don’t like the way your local schools are working? Get involved. You are part of the public, too, and have as much say in their administration as anyone.
Ha, ha, ha, ha!! This thread is dead, but I’m thinking you haven’t dealt with a kid in a public school system recently. (I have and have many friends whose children are in it.)
Policy and culture in public education is set at the state and national levels - what the local populace wants means squat. The local unwashed masses are there to pay for it and send bodies.
And honestly, I don’t have the time and energy to “change the system”. I have enough time and energy to educate my own kids. If everyone did what I did the system would change all by itself as administrators tried to figure out why parents are no longer sending kids to their school.
Kids dropping out of the college level is really immaterial to the point. A free market school system would improve both education and the general responsiveness of schools to parent’s wishes.
Part of the problem in FL is that you have county schools with layers of administration and no local input. We have local schools here in OH, but we have a group trying to change over to county schools. We’re fighting them all the way. We’ve seen what happens when all local control is lost. It’s just like big business, it get bigger and more cumbersome to change anything.
“you need to get educators out of administration. By the term administration alone, you should know that business people need to be there.”
Luckily, it sounds like the “business people” at Tousa Inc., Beazer Homes and Standard Pacific Homes will soon be available . . .
Tell me about it. My wife is a teacher in LAUSD and the waste of money she sees is astronomical. And more directly to your point, I am shocked, and I mean shocked, at the prices they pay for supplies through their vendors. Logically, one would assume that a large entity like LAUSD would be buying at wholesale prices. That could not be further from the truth. They pay considerably more for their supplies than one does by walking into Office Depot and buying on their own.
It also goes on at UC. We were in meeting about a new travel contract - we had been able to buy travel on the net and look for the cheapest price but instead they want to contract with an agency that may be more expensive on trips. Their reasoning is they get a better overall deal, but can’t get the contract if anyone buys travel anywhere else, so you would be forced to pay a higher price on some travel. You’re locked into contracts on goods and services with specific vendors. The biggest ripoff is Steelcase and other office furniture.
“And more directly to your point, I am shocked, and I mean shocked, at the prices they pay for supplies through their vendors.”
That’s right! My wife is a teacher as well. We can go to a certain computer company who shall remain nameless and purchase a laptop for $900 including 2 years of on site service. That same laptop with the school pricing is $2,000. The company claims it’s for the 2 years of on site service. Wait a minute…
Nowhere else on earth is a $15 box of paper going to cost you $99. The school district gets away with it. Shame on the district and shame on the vendors!
“The biggest ripoff is Steelcase and other office furniture.”
And Virco. We used to see hundreds of Virco chairs being dumped by the schools, so they could buy more.
Man i used to dumpster dive for all the great office chairs…sometimes a $5 part and a wrench fixed a $400 chair….
Anybody have a Gunlocke Chair the lawyers used to use in 70′-80s …i have 2….man what quality to sit on all day….
What I don’t get is the cost of textbooks. I think I read that CA spends billions. I would think even a state even just one large county would have the capability of publishing their own for a fraction of the cost. The texbook racket is enormous.
Robert Feinman, Nobel Prize winning scientist, sat on a textbook review board.
http://www.textbookleague.org/103feyn.htm
A free market for education would be worse than that?
We had an MBA type adminstrator in the San Diego school district and it ended up being a debacle. He alienated all the good teachers because he treated education like a factory. There needs to be a balance.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050430/news_1n30bersin.html
You can’t fix the system by replacing one person. You have to replace the system. If you gave a French bureaucrat a pile of money and sent them to Wall Street they’d lose it in a week or so. Does that mean Socialism is flawed?
REAL education does cost much. But our system has been created to be a cash cow to various interests. Unfortunately, the children get stiffed for an education, and the tax payers get robbed for little to no gain.
You are so right. I never minded paying private school for my daughter and gleefully pay towards her college because she’s getting a real education and loves learning and going to school. She goes to an unusual college that doesn’t use textbooks - only uses the great books from throughout history. Just spent a few days auditing classes and seminars. It was amazing to see kids really loving learning, with no whining about assignments or trying to figure out how to slide by. Some blame for poor education has to go to parents who park kids in front of computers and tvs at an early age instead of instilling the excitement, curiosity and behavior necessary to really learn.
That sounds like St John’s in Annapolis. That is a WONDERFUL school.
Anon. You are correct - I can’t tell you how inspiring it is to be around those kids - it gives me some hope for the future. They are so smart, funny and happy. Biggest question I get from folks is what kind of job will she get after college - like that’s the only reason to get an education. My answer is whatever she wants because she will be able to read, write and think.
I was about to say St. John’s College in Annapolis or Santa Fe. It sounded like a great place when I was researching colleges a dozen or so years ago.
So much of the excess in this country is due to indoctrination or learned behaviour from the powers that be. If banks and investment firms control the government, do you think they want people to be fiscally responsible? No, they just want access to your money.
I went to government school through 5 grade, then was home schooled until 8th grade when I went back to government school for 1/2 a year. I was bored out of my skull and not learning anything so I went back to home schooling for good. The total cost of 5 1/2 years of home schooling was about $200 (not counting the minimal property taxes we paid that we never saw again).
When I got my engineering degree I borrowed $7,700 to put me through school. I almost didn’t get the Stafford loan because they tried to attach grant money to it and when I said I didn’t want the grant money they treid to withold the loan.
All around me I saw people spending tens of thousands of taxpayer dollars on worthless degrees because it wasn’t their money so they didn’t care. My first year engineering text books doubled in price from $45 to $90 each. Since this was obviously a scam by the big publishers I refused to buy text books from then on. That alone saved big bucks, although my grades suffered somewhat (but as I correctly thought at the time, with a few obvious exceptions, no one cares what your GPA is once you get in the work force).
The biggest loss as a result of government schools IMO though is the loss of creativity and critical thinking ability in those indoctrinated. I can’t count how many times when faced with a problem with an obvious and easy solution, everyone around me can only see one poor “fix” because their ability to think has been impared. And it annoys me how most abdicate their responsibility to learn for themselves - when I ask co-workers why they don’t do easy tasks they respond “because nobody showed me how or taught me”.
I could keep going forever….
Rant off.
Yep - they want stupid, obedient drones who consume as they are told.
The college textbooks scam really angers me. In my 5 years of college, textbook prices must have gone up about 50% in that time - unreal! And they’d sell the exact same book with a new cover a few tweaks to make a “new edition” to try to flush the used books (that would sell at a much lower price) from the market. Professors were in on the scam as well, doing what they could to keep everyone buying new books. They’d even on occassion “accidently” have the students buy an old version of a lab manual, then release a new version, and finally make it almost impossible to get your money back for the old version that they told you to buy. And trying to sell used books back might net you 10 cents on the dollar for a book in perfect condition - which would then be sold at full price the next term. A total scam!
The college text book scam is the literal definition of a monopoly.
There is a very large “scene” of people who scan current technical and other books and distribute pirated companies on the internet in PDF form. The only way I can figure they do this is by using a press to cut off the binding and using some serious hardware to scan the document. Is this happening with college textbooks as well? Can students find their books online in PDF form?
I know I found a collection of books (in PDF form) all about economics and business, but they were older (not current editions as far as I could tell).
College books….require a 15% change for a new edition…
5% for a new picture on the cover, 5% for changing the problems in the back, 5% for changing the order of the chapters.
Solution that got me thru college..borrow the teachers copy,hit the copy center.
professors…want to help your students??
next semester order an older edition of the text for your class, lots of used ones will showup in the book store.
My old p chem teacher ordered an edition from the 50s, only used were available from the campus bookstore and they had a sewn cloth binding that was still good after 50 years unlike the crap today that falls apart before finals are over.
In spite of my homeschool education, I’m obviously not one of the nerd spelling bee wizkids…
My original post I meant to say : Real education DOESN’T cost much.
homeschooled kids kick aszzz- really pisses off the EDU-crats
Devildog -
Thanks for the post. We are homeschooling our kids now for the exact reasons you describe. And education is cheap. I buy the rough equivalent of “school in a box”, really one of the most expensive ways you can homeschool. Our kids books still cost us less than $400 bucks and we are giving our kids a better education than I know they would receive in public school. So why does it take thousands of dollars per kid again?
Public schools don’t teach things every citizen should know - like our governement works, cook a meal, sew a button, balance a checkbook, etc. Education administators are instead totally obessed with how many little Johnnys have perfect SAT scores, which mean exactly bumpkis in the real world. It does seem that the job of public education is to turn out sheep. (Don’t worry, medication is always available if you aren’t naturally prone to being a sheep.)
Ah, but stupid people make better consumers - the types who are likely to get deeply into debt, buy houses they can’t afford, and so on - so business interests win, too.
Did you see the reports on the evening news yesterday? They said something to the effect that that revenue “could” (actual verbage) go towards things such as education. It struck me funny that they used the word could but probably thrown out as a red herring to she sheeple so they can feel better about it. I have a feeling that this deal will never actually happen as the people here in Florida did not have opportunity to vote on this. I really think they are delusional if they think that this will be benificial. I think that it is just another way that the local population will loose their money. Really who will intentionally come to here to gamble? The Casino in Tampa is a joke but than again I don’t gamble so what do I know.
Since when are corporate interests off the table in terms of taxation? No… go after the wage earner instead. The next time you hear J6Pack crying the blues about “death tax” and “taxing the rich”, remind him of the fact that someone will pay it and it will likely be him.
Watch out for a small but hidden major bait n switch in any gambling benefits education schemes; REPLACING, not SUPPLEMENTING the state education budget with gambling revenues. Translation; if gamblers get stingy then revenues for education go down, instead of a base budget previously guaranteed by the state.
Happened here in CA when the state wanted & pushed hard to get voter approval for lottery tickets. Ads all over TV showing the poor downtrodden native indians and, of course, smiling kids to get yer sympathy vote. Never a word in detail about exactly how,when or where the funds would be spent. Notice I said ” in detail”. Now flash foward years later & the school system needs …. MORE MONEY !! Wow, we been had by the politicos & bidness, big surprise.
Just saying, keep yer ear to the floor & nose to the wind, and if possible have some citizen watchdog committees review in detail any gambling revenue education share proposals.
yeah - tell us in CA about how the lotto funds that were supposed to supplement the education budget now are used in place of it.
And the governor of my Empire wants to sell off the lottery, to a private concern…
I’m sure it’s all on the up and up.
We had the same thing here in OH. They put in the lottery and had a million tv ads saying the proceeds would go to education. Technically it does, however the amount put in by the lottery for education is deducted from the state’s general fund. So it’s not one penny more for schools. The funding just comes from a different place.
Gambling proceeds won’t be enough to cover the investment shortfalls. I predict either a move toward state income taxes, or continued inflation of property appraisals for income tax purposes. Appeals will fail somehow as the state finds a way to ignore comps.
Geez, I meant “property” tax purposes
“I predict either a move toward state income taxes,”
Never happen. The voters would have to approve a constitutional amendment and they won’t. Of course, the local “media elite” (two bit hustlers) are beating the drum for a state income tax. If Florida would just stop kissing the posteriors of the developers and tighten its belt and consolidate, it would do just fine. Florida has offered excellent services all these many years (until now) without a state income tax. The only reason for a state income tax would be to continue to line the pockets of vested interests and to keep up a failing education system in the state.
Look at this idiot statement: “‘I think that you’ll see prices coming down to the 2004 level, but not much below that,’ says Dr. William Hardin, a real-estate professor at Miami’s Florida International University.”
He’s a professor at one of our “Universities” (more like a community college, but who wants to argue over semantics?). We’re paying for nitwits like this in our taxes. I’ll be danged if I’ll vote for a state income tax to pay for the likes of him, and for the education of the anchor babies of the illegal hustlers who worked in the construction industry and are now out of work fingering themselves on street corners. And people wonder why education is so screwed up in FLA.
“I predict either a move toward state income taxes,”
I agree that this will not happen. The state can get more revenue out of property taxes than income taxes. The reason is Florida is a low wage service industry state that relies on tourism for it’s taxes.
So ya’all need to get down here on your winter/spring vacations to help bail Florida out of it’s revenue issues and keep our taxes from increasing! Florida cannot continue to waste taxpayer monies without the help from tourists!
I spend a lot of time in Florida. I always thought they’d be better off with a 2% income tax, just to establish a nice baseline. Of course, once they start with an income tax, it’ll never end. Then they’ll have high property taxes AND high income taxes AND high sales taxes.
But income taxes are fairer, IMHO, than high property taxes. Especially if someone retires, is all paid up, and then overextended specuvestors drive up prices and cause your property tax to go up for no good reason.
(Florida tried to sneak something on the ballot with a name like “Property Tax Relief Act” that would eliminate the inflation protection on property tax. I’m not sure what the status of that was, but if something like this got through, no sensible person would retire to FL anymore. Too risky if you can’t predict what property tax will do. It’s already at 2% of assessed value in some areas. Plus HOA, etc!)
“But income taxes are fairer, IMHO, than high property taxes.”
Yes, but income taxes should be done away with in favor of sales taxes, fees, tarrifs, etc. Period. With exceptions for food and energy. Income taxes came about as a result of wars and never went away. Income taxes are disgusting. They penalize earning and saving. The obscenely wealthy don’t pay income taxes, they have all sorts of interlocking foundations and trusts to avoid that sort of thing. Those who live off investment income don’t pay it either. Income taxes are paid by producers and workers to subsidize parasites at the top and lower end of the scale. “Income” has come to be defined as wages, while those who live off investment income get the breaks. It was supposed to be the other way around. Didn’t work out that way.
Those who live off investment income don’t pay it either.
I’m serious… how does that work? As I’m investing my savings… or doing Forex trading and making gains. Capital gains… tax.
The ability to tax income implies the ability to deny the right to work to earn a living. The authority that allows them to tax 2% also allows them, with a stroke of a pen, to tax 100%. It sets the president that the government owns your labor (you’re a slave), but lets you keep some of it.
Property tax is nothing more than a “wealth” tax and implies that the state owns all property and rents it. The state can raise rent at any time.
Both tax systems are anti-freedom and anti-property rights. Both systems enable the government (state or fed) to grow “unchecked” because the people no longer have the freedom to deny the state funds by voluntary actions.
Taxation is a necessary evil and inherently tyrannical, but must be done in such a way that respects property rights and individual freedom. For this reason, the government should only tax privileges granted by the government and things over which the government has authority to REGULATE. These privileges include forming companies, using public air waves or utility emanate domain. Basically, the special interests should pay the taxes for their privileged legal positions.
I think we can all agree that the government does not have authority to directly regulate a redistribution of wealth from your savings account or deny you the right to work for a living. Unfortunately we live in a society where this happens every day through inflation, income and property tax.
Taxing the exchange of property is fine because the government pays to enforce property rights and to record deeds and boundaries. This is a one-time “service” fee and not a recurring claim to the property. Basically the government should never have a claim on your property.
When my son entered a brand new elementary school (Pizzo - Tampa, FL) I had to stop by for some paperwork or some such thing. Admiring the nice new school, stopped in at the office whereby I was informed to contact my childs teacher. So off I went down the hallway, only to be re-directed back to the office by the teacher. When I asked her what was going on, she just replied” oh, thats an ADMINISTRATION function … “, like there was some Berlin Wall between the teaching staff & the admin staff that dare not be broached. I was dumbfounded for a moment, until I quickly figured out the pecking order & what her comment entailed, so I just thanked her & resolved my business back in the school office.
Thats a major problem with FL schools; too many chiefs, not enough indians. The principal in every school is a freakin PHD, in fact they have ” Dr.” in front of their title for all the world to admire just how the FL school system is so progressive!
Dr ? DOCTOR !?!? Oh for cripes sake !!
Just look up the Hillsborough County School District staff roster and you’ll see more Directors, Asst Directors, Exec Sectrys, and other make-work turf-building paperwork positions than you can shake a stick at. (yes, sentence ended with a preposition, but since I dont plan to attend Harvard you can kiss my azz)
If every state in the nation trimmed their educational & political deadwood there would be much less need for constantly rising taxes. Never happen, of course. Huge staffs = big turf = patronage = clout & egos, but like another PHD Doctor I can also have a dream.
“Thats a major problem with FL schools; too many chiefs, not enough indians. The principal in every school is a freakin PHD, in fact they have ” Dr.” in front of their title for all the world to admire just how the FL school system is so progressive!”
Nova University (now Nova-Southeastern) produces many of those “Doctors” and I got a chance to see their Education Department in action. LMAO! I about split my sides laughing at some of the curriculae. The Law School, however, is actually not half bad. Had a Nova graduate do some excellent legal work for me.
Just so you know for Florida to go to state income tax it would require 60% of Floridians to vote on a constitutional amendment. You can’t get 60% of the people to agree they like vanilla ice cream besides incorporating an income tax on themselves.
Dont matter because property taxes alone make up for the income taxes…
exactly, qt, that’s the way it is now. No income tax? Fine. We’ll find another way to take it out of your hide. One of the things that has been mentioned and of which I would approve are getting rid of the various tax cuts and exemptions which Jebbie granted.
Honestly, I prefer income tax. It’s much fairer (assuming everyone pays). If I make 100 million dollars and I live in a 400,000 house, I pay the same amount tax as someone making 80,000 (ignore SOH for simplicity).
It’s easy to get people to vote to hang themselves - just take a page out of the Texas playbook. Here, the party in powere gets to write the wording of the amendment, so they come up with something so convoluted that the voters think they’re actually voting against what they’re voting for. IMHO crap like that should be illegal, but since it favors whoever’s in power, good luck with that.
Devildog, they tried that dodge here in FLA and a judge ruled against the original tax amendment they tried to slide by, on the grounds of deceptive wording. So now we have another one to contend with, coming up in January. Except I don’t think it will fly.
“It’s easy to get people to vote to hang themselves - just take a page out of the Texas playbook.”
Hmmm… this sounds vaguely familiar.
They don’t need to do either. They will just raise the mill rates; they can jack them up about 50% in most areas without a single vote from any of the public.
Property appraisals will come down, mill rates will go up (further pushing down property values) and eventually, SOH values will come in line with real market values..
The property appraiser, IMHO, is not the one to blame for the skyrocketing taxes. The problem is the taxing bodies (that set the mill rates) not rolling back the millage to reflect the 2X increase in taxable values. And, of course, SOH for allowing all this to go on unchecked (because the voters were mostly protected from the 2X tax bill jumps from year to year).
FL is in it deep; I just hope we can come out without too much pain and suffering. Just get the prices down quickly and we can start to pick up the pieces. This is like a 5 year hurricane the speed at which it is currently moving!
Florida is doing all it can to pass the costs back onto the home owner and consumer. When the Poe insurance group failed, Florida passed the costs back to the homeowner and owners of cars. Just recently, a $50 per home owner tax was passed on to the consumer to pay for costs associated with the failed insurance group.
What a coincidence! CA’s budget chasm is expected to blow open to the tune of $10bn going forward.
CA passed in landslide vote against INS co.s in the 80s and the new bill was supposed to pass a reduction in Ins costs..guess what..still paying, still climbing.. Lobbyists etc got that landslide vote stuck in courts. What year is this? 07? 20 yrs+
The hangover from a debt-financed boom could prove far more painful for state and local govts (which don’t have the power of a money printing press in their policy arsenal) compared to the federal govt (which does).
Impossible! Recessions don’t exist anymore - just ask the Fed. Goldilocks all the time, everything always goes up! Or, does it?
No more recessions going forward — merely slowdowns with bottoms expected in the near-term future.
How much is a house worth in the Southeast, when you turn on the faucet, and nothing comes out?
But don’t worry Georgia, your governor is praying for rain…
Amen!
“The industry is ‘going to be a shadow of itself once we get through this downturn,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. ‘Everyone was too optimistic.’”
So was Zandi, as I recall, although he was more “cautiously” optimistic.
Right, hey Zandi, speak for yourself! Some of us were skeptical, even at the top.
Good call Ben. Notice how many analysts, economists, ib spokesmen, RE shills and journalists are now resorting to the “Everybody was surprised’ mantra”. So if “everybody” was asleep, than “nobody” could have forseen the mess, and “nobody” can be held accountable. Keep pointing out the facts, Ben.
Deny, deny deny and then act as if the mess were self-evident and then say “Gee wiz…. how come nobody did anything?”. It’s a little puke game that frankly, the masses are very tired of. The other side of that game is creating panic and fear over a non-issue so as to turn it upside down and destroy it a ‘la social security.
Unfortunately, computers kind of make is easy to go back and figure out EXACTLY who said what and when they said it. If you go back through the archives till before the fall, there were plenty of us discussing the fate of the housing bubble, and who could see it for exactly what it was.
So, the idea that this was not foreseeable is just nuts.. Even me, almost totally untrained in economics, saw it clearly. This “nobody could have seen” talk is just an excuse for bad decisions made during the bubble!
I think they mean “Everybody that was Anybody”. Internet “goofballs and conspiracy theorists” don’t count - yet. Give it a few more years (and a few more Dan Rather forged memo episodes) and the MSM will fact check everything with the blogs before committing to a viewpiont.
First they’ll all say they were surprised and then their overinflated egos will take over. Next, I expect to hear them start to chirp that they knew but no one would listen. It’s what we call the old D&D shuffle - 1st deny and then if that doesn’t work, defend the actions by blaming someone else.
Worry not about the hoi polloi…
They can only remember back a few weeks, and think forward, only a fortnight.
True story: I was in Girl Scouts with Zandi’s sister. Nice, quiet kid from a good family.
However, one of her brothers (not the widely quoted economist) drove drunk and got into a terrible accident. He survived, but with serious brain damage. My mother, who taught in a local high school, said that he’d come to speak at assemblies on the dangers of drunk driving. She said his talks were quite moving.
“In the recent housing boom, thousands of their homes spread out over the suburbs of Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando and Pinellas counties.”
Like a fungus.
is this Carl Hiesen or Elmore Leonard
is that you ?
I WISH I was Carl Hiaasen, brilliant writer, IMHO. If I could be a Hiaasen character, it’d be Skink, the ex-Florida governor Clinton Tyree, turned renegade thorn in the side of the developers. Hiaasen hates the developers with an absolute passion and it shows.
“Hiaasen’s Florida is a hive of greedy businessmen, corrupt politicians, dumb blondes, apathetic retirees, intellectually challenged tourists, hard-luck redneck cooters, and militant ecoteurs. It is the same Florida of John D. MacDonald and Travis McGee, but aged another 20 years and viewed with a more satiric or sardonic eye.”
“‘I know the market is bad … but, I mean, how much more is it really going to go down?’ she says. ‘Am I ever going to get a better deal than $150,000 in the heart of Miami? Sure, now may not be the best time to buy, but you can’t let a good opportunity pass you by.’”
Are you serious? Downtown Miami is not much to write home about. In 3-5 years when the condo market in Miami really gets a tase of reality, many of these units will run in the $50’s and $60’s in my opinion. There are WAY too many condos and too few buyers. Banks will foreclose and banks will sell at bottom dollar. That will become the new “market price” for these units.
Get ready to take a $100K bath lady!
Plus they played her like a fish, psst here’s a sweet secret deal we’ll let you in on:
‘This type of thing wasn’t advertised very much at first,’ she explains. ‘I felt like it was very word-of-mouth, and you almost had to really look for [great deals] like this. And, of course, give up certain things, like parking.’
“…And, of course, give up certain things, like parking.”
So where do you put your car? On the street in downtown Miami? Don’t go to your car after dark! Don’t expect to see your car when you get there!
‘This type of thing wasn’t advertised very much at first,’ she explains. ‘I felt like it was very word-of-mouth, and you almost had to really look for [great deals] like this. And, of course, give up certain things, like parking.’
BWAAAA HAAAAAAA!!!
This just in:
Generalisimo Francisco Franco is still dead…
as well as all signs of brain activity in Miami.
We got booted out of our condo conversion because we refused to buy their rotting, overpriced tenament last year, just drove by last week and they’ve now got a HUGE “For Rent” banner out front!!! The grifters are stupid, but the rest are even dumberer. Adios amigos, we’re moving out!!!! Buh BYE!
“‘I know the market is bad … but, I mean, how much more is it really going to go down?’ she says. ‘Am I ever going to get a better deal than $150,000 in the heart of Miami? Sure, now may not be the best time to buy, but you can’t let a good opportunity pass you by.’”
The builders have artificially inflated the price by $1ooK, then lowered it to make it look like a good deal. There is always a sucker that falls for this game. Let’s see how her “good opportunity” works out for her when she sells the property at a substantial loss!
When I read that, I tried to think of some reason why a large closet in a high-rise building in downtown Miami on which one gets to pay high taxes, insurance costs, and HOA fees should have ANY value. When you add in parking, she’s gotta be looking at $1000/month BEFORE the mortgage, not to mention incidentals like self-defense lessons.
This unit has zero or negative economic value.
Another thing is (and I know the answer to this question) just how many real estate booms and busts has *she* been in? Obviously, she has not followed along over the past 7 years. Of course not. She was in college 7 years ago. What was going on in housing was the least of her concern.
Now, instead of doing what she asks (tells) her students to do (their homework), she jumps right into the biggest U.S. housing fiasco ever recorded, and she tells herself that she can’t let a “good opportunity pass you by”.
Someone please wrestle her to the ground and take her teaching credential away from her. She really needs more schooling. Better yet, she’ll get a hands-on education over the next 3 years (waiting for her unit to be completed) when she sees prices go down and she starts crying about “no one told me….blah, blah.”
BayQT~
““‘I think that you’ll see prices coming down to the 2004 level, but not much below that,’ says Dr. William Hardin, a real-estate professor at Miami’s Florida International University. ‘We’re going to have to forget 2006 and part of 2005. I would try to make a transaction at 2004 or 2005 price points - they would be a good starting point for negotiations.’””
isn’t it already nearing 2004 prices? and the downturn just started
“isn’t it already nearing 2004 prices? and the downturn just started”
Those that are selling are already at 2002 and 2003 prices Ben. You have a lot of wish prices hanging around 2004 prices…at least in my neck of the woods.
My landlord is trying to get me to buy my house for what he paid for the place in Feb. 2004. Reluctantly, I told him I would buy at 5% off his asking price because I like the place and I can’t bear to move for the 3rd time in 4 years. He hasn’t responded for 4 weeks.
Boy, you’re an easy mark. 5%!?
Not really, just weighing the options. I’ve been a housing bear since 2002 when I sold and started renting. The owners keep selling the properties and I’m tired of moving. This house is less expensive than something I’d buy if I were bullish on RE, so futures losses will be smaller too. I may get lucking and he won’t accept my offer and I’ll get to keep renting it.
Mark down another 5% for each week he takes to get back to you.
I love hearing this sort of spin. “Make a transaction at 2004 and 2005 price points”. WTF? 2005 was the PEAK of the bubble. LOL! No, why pay $200,000 in 2007 when you can go back to 2005 prices and pay $300,000? Or the 2004 price of $250,000?
Bottom caller with a different twist ….Yep LOL palmetto
looking at research like that from Shiller it is likely that inflation-adjusted homeprices will return to their absolute historic minimum, because of the record size of the preceding bubble. I’m not sure if historic income/homeprice or price/rent ratios are reliable for predicting the outcome, because of all the changes in number of workers per household, number of jobs per person, different types of mortgage that are available now etc.
In Netherlands the historic charts suggest a 70-80% decline in average inflation-adjusted homeprices is likely; in the US probably less. Because of the CPI manipulation it is difficult to say how much nominal prices have to decline (probably more, and obviously individual home prices in some speculative areas could fall much further than the average).
““‘I think that you’ll see prices coming down to the 2004 level, but not much below that,’ says Dr. William Hardin, a real-estate professor at Miami’s Florida International University.
In 2008, he will correct his statement by saying he meant prices will drop to 2004 prices in 2007 and that we misunderstood him. He is a professor deeply tied to the RE industry and is putting these statements out to fool the public.
The professor is assuming people aren’t going to wait a few years for the results of hundreds of billions in ARM resets.
Sorry professor, the ponzi scheme has ended and nobody knows for sure how low prices will get before this is over. Class dismissed.
Can any of the legal minds out there tell me if lenders have to pay property tax on the foreclosures they’re holding in FLA? Because I know they don’t have to pay HOA fees in many cases. I don’t know how that translates to condos, typically condo fees include taxes, so if condo association members have to absorb the condo fees for foreclosed properties, it means they’re paying the taxes on the foreclosed property, right?
How are they getting out of the HOA fees?
Once a lender forecloses it is the owner and as such is responsible for all of an owner’s obligations. The bank is responsible for property taxes, special assessments, and HOA dues. A bank may temporarily not make these payments but will have to bring these items current in order to sell the REO.
If the owner through foreclosure is an agency MBS trustee then title goes to FNMA, FHLMC, or HUD who payoff the security holders in full. The agencies have a lot of experience with foreclosures and are good at securing the property and making tax and HOA payments.
If the owner through foreclosure is a conventional MBS trustee then actual payment on these obligations is governed by the trust indenture and the servicing contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these MBS-owned properties are lost through property tax sales.
thanks for the clarification, tuxedo. I will say one thing, though. When I wuz briefly prez of an HOA in South Florida, we had a home go into foreclosure. It was written into the covenants of the association that the bank was exempt from the payment of HOA fees and assessments, so we got no joy from the bank and had to absorb the monthly shortfall. They did make a good faith effort and sold the property very quickly, but we were out the fees for a few months. I asked our attorney about that and he told me that many individual HOA docs were written that way in FLA, because otherwise banks would not lend in HOAs. So that’s the way it worked in one HOA, I don’t know about others and I wasn’t sure how it works in condos and with local govs.
Can any of the legal minds out there tell me if lenders have to pay property tax on the foreclosures they’re holding in FLA?
The answer is yes, since they are now the new owners of the property, they must pay taxes and HOA fees. The state or the homeowner associations can simply lien the property for these fees.
I predict it will keep going down until home sale prices are in line with local incomes. All end-user demand is local.
Yes, and the RE mantra of ‘All real estate is local’ will soon bite. The housing bubble was national in scope, and its collaspe will create a thousand little local real estate recessions. They can talk all they want, but at the end it’s still just one sale at a time.
I predict it will keep going down until home sale prices are in line with local incomes. All end-user demand is local.
Except for vacation homes in Florida. However, I most certainly agree with prices being brought back in line with local incomes. I use the word “affordability”.
Real Estate professor Dr. William Hardin states: “I think you’ll see prices come down to the 2004 level but not much below that.” So this character is a professor and a doctor (of something or other). How do these guys get their credentials? The tops off three corn flake boxes and $5 gets you a certificate?! Mr. Doctor Professor, you miss the two points. AFFORDABILITY and FICO scores. We are already seeing some of those who bought before 2004 having financial troubles and it ain’t gonna get better. The prices will go back (in many places) to at least 2000 and if the current rate of TRUE inflation continues and we get hit with a bad recession, prices will drop further. Y’see, Doctor Professor, prices over shoot just as much on the way down as they did going up.
FL is already at 2003 ,dude
FL is already at 2003 ,dude
That may be true in some areas, but not in the Tampa Bay area where prices are still at 2005 - 2006 levels.
Great stuff - let it proceed on its way to oblivion… I wonder how low it can go?
So…this is what they mean about a market in limbo…?
“‘I know the market is bad … but, I mean, how much more is it really going to go down?’ she says. ‘Am I ever going to get a better deal than $150,000 in the heart of Miami?
Funny how we’ve been conditioned to think that $150K is a great deal for a condo, or that a 4br/2ba house less than $500K is a bargain.
I remember a conversation about 5 years ago with a realtwhore who was talking about prices of homes in a nearby existing development and how the agents at the open house were literally laughing (with joy) at the fact that people were getting $400K or more for their houses. Last year, they were laughing at the buyers who didn’t think those same homes were worth the $700K+ that the sellers were asking. This year they’ve stopped laughing - and I’ve started.
This the church, this is the steeple, open the door and see all the sheeple. I taught this to my daughter yesterday. She is having a good time with it!
This year they’ve stopped laughing - and I’ve started.
I think it’s time for me to call my contact at my old REIC job to hear about the (self) hair pulling, caterwauling, and overall gnashing of teeth .
couldn’t happen to a nicer gang of witches.
Please give us all the juicy details Philly gal.
OK
right now I just wish I were a fly on the wall of that office…
again, not many sellers want to drop their prices, as my RE friend states… they are still hanging onto that 2004-2005 idea
“but this area is different” and the Desert Sun today states that our valley is poised to explode in growth 1-2 yrs..
Ummm yeah?
Who will have the money to move?
And not until the prices have dropped in half. or more.
I saw that, too. Of course for years they’ve kept the trains from running out here because they’re afraid that if people could get back and forth from LA in only 1 1/2 hours, the desert would be flooded with “those” people. Like we need more traffic. It’s already getting crazy with all the old folks puttering about because they’re retired and don’t have to get anywhere in time.
“Residents of the Club at Brickell Bay Plaza condominium came home one day to find they had no cable or Internet service, the result of the condo association falling months behind on payments to provider Primecast.”
LOL! You mean they won’t be able to get “Flip That House”? Oh, the horror of it all! As to losing internet service, I’ve got one word for those condo owners: Dial-up! LMAO!
“Flip That House”
I don’t have the same problem with that program that most on this board do. It shows people buying a home in disrepair, putting hard earned money and effort into repairing the home, and selling for a profit.
What it doesn’t show is buying a home pre-construction for $250K and selling it to the next sucker for $350K right after closing. It also doesn’t show someone buying 5 homes on fast food pay to do nothing but put a for sale sign on it.
In a normal market, it’s not uncommon to make $30K to $50K in profit from a distressed property if you’re willing to work hard. The only thing I fault the show for is not showing the failures.
Oh, all right, Andy. Let’s make it Cramer. They won’t be able to see Cramer. Oh, the horror!
Can we make it reruns of “The OC” on soap net?
I’d be upset if I couldn’t watch re-runs of Flavor of Love.
Can we crank up Barry White and the Loan Unlimited Orchestra?
phillygal… oh you nut!
desertdweller:
Flav looks a little like my cousin Angelo in this pic.
I would be deeply disturbed at the thought of carrying any DNA in common with Mr. Flav.
They’re not using their “hard earned money” to fix these places up and a lot of times, they don’t fix infrastructure, they do cosmetic stuff and try to make every house look like a vanilla sundae - granite counters, stainless steel appliances, wood floors, beige paint with white trim. When they are finished they jack up the prices way beyond what was put in. They are speculators - they expect to make a big profit in a short amount of time. There are websites that talk about the real problems they leave behind once the cameras are off.
“There are websites that talk about the real problems they leave behind once the cameras are off.”
There are also websites that talk about how horrible new home builders are. I’m not taking sides one way or another, but it is buyer beware. Often times the only thing keeping a $150K home from being a $200K home is the kitchen countertops. If the current owner isn’t willing to make the change, why not an investor?
Humans cut corners by nature. It’s the responsibility of the next buyer to make sure there are no underlying issues.
Say what? It’s human nature to screw people? Not the people I know. And you think it’s ok to inflate housing prices by $50K for some countertops? Your every man for himself attitude is what is degenerating society IMHO. Next you’ll be saying greed is good. I’m just not getting this line of thinking. I must need more coffee.
“And you think it’s ok to inflate housing prices by $50K for some countertops?”
Let’s put some things into the clear lens here. People buy what’s pretty. Granite countertops are pretty. Are they worth $50K? Not to me, but to some. That’s why people will buy a house with nice kitchens and bathrooms for $50K more than a house that doesn’t have them.
I never said it was human nature to screw people. I said it was human nature to cut corners and it is. Without that natural burning desire to get things done in fewer steps we’d still be using candle light and riding horseback.
It’s your everyone should trust everyone else attitude that drove this bubble to its max. Don’t trust that mortgage broker, don’t trust that real estate agent, don’t trust that home seller. They are looking out for thier own interests…not yours.
Andy - we’re at cross purposes here. I don’t believe it’s human nature to cut corners - it may be human nature to find a more efficient way to do things, but that’s not necessarily cutting corners. Pride is supposed to be more human nature as in pride in workmanship. My main objection to the flipping shows is that they promoted the idea that everything has to be new and the same to be of value and that no house is good enough as is. I think this helped inflate housing prices also. I agree that one shouldn’t be a trusting fool or doormat, but there has to be a middle ground.
I know a couple of guys who have been in the house renovation/fixer-upper business looong before the current bubble took off. These guys are old-school GCs and really do “add value” to their properties by fixing broken stuff before they sell –not just the cosmetic crap– but real infrastructure upgrades: plumbing, electrical, insulation, foundation, termite damage, roofing, etc.
I have yet to see anyone remotely like them on shows like “Flip That House”. I *do* see con-men, greedy amateurs, and deluded, lazy Casey Serin clones.
I agree, I like the episodes where they take a vintage home that endured a hideous 70s remodel, and is restored to it’s original splendor, buffing out the unique architectural features. I despise the shows where the guy goes to Home Depot to buy the cheapest fixtures and of course, granite. It’s raining grainite. Actually saw a new condo with floor to ceiling granite slabs in the bathroom. Looked like a mausoleum.
I was discussing the housing bubble with an older black woman (the type that smacks you on your teenage head for being rude and always sits up straight) and she was telling me about a real estate agent at a new home complex who was pressuring her to buy a very overpriced POS. Upon hearing that the house had all granite countertops her reply was….
“Granite? That’s what they make tombstones out of!”
I have another word for them: Books. As in, read them instead of watching teevee.
As soon as Flav writes a book, I’m making a beeline for Borders.
Books take effort and thought. It starts at home with parents setting an example and not taking the lazy way out of videos and computers. All studies show kids that grow up in a household of readers become readers. I’m shocked at the amount of adults that don’t read books anymore. I’m tired of hearing “I don’t have time to (fill in the blank) because I work.” I call BS. All this I don’t have time to cook a meal, I don’t have time to pack a lunch, I don’t have time to read, exercise, clean the house is nonsense IMO. One chooses how to use their time. Plenty of us made time to do those things - yeah we didn’t spend a lot of time on ourselves because having a home and raising children necessarily required some sacrifice. We lived by work 1st, play 2nd. Hard to teach kids values when you don’t set an example. As for schools, it’s my view that a huge proportion of the problem is kids that haven’t learned to sit down, shut up, do what they’re told and do their work. Add to that the parents that think no one should force their little darlings to do anything and threaten to sue if they don’t get their way. It’s much easier to blame the teachers. By disclosure I’ll say that daughter and SIL are both teachers - I’m betting anyone who is or knows a teacher could tell many hair raising stories. Maybe I don’t need more coffee afterall. I’m going to go prune the roses and calm down.
Preach it, Crazy!
BTW, my mother was a public school teacher for 22 years. (Warning: Don’t get her started on the “blame the teachers” idea. Just don’t.)
Anyone who has time to read a book, cook a mean, clean the house, communicate with their children, or exercise is not spending enough time reading this blog!
All kidding aside I come from a family of readers - my parents and brother and I did a ton. My brother married a reader. His kids are readers. Am sad when I am around my friend’s kids who like her never read but have to be constantly entertained. Doesn’t hurt her though - I mean just because she thought last week that Abu Ghraib prison was a middle eastern prison where they tortured Americans doesn’t make her ignorant or anything, right?
Flip that House leaves me confused. About the only “work” the flippers actually do is knocking down a few cabinets and interior walls with sledge hammers while acting like 12 year old kids.
The rest of the time they “hire” electricians, plumbers, carpenters and landscapers who do the majority of the real work. (Opps, the do pick out cheap fixtures and cabinets at Home Depot.)
I guess I’d rather buy a fixer-upper and hire all the trades myself and forego the profit to the “flipper.”
You might think not having the Internet is no big deal, but if you are a software engineer who works from home you would.
For those who find it hard to believe that new home sites were bulldozed in the Texas bust, from the HT article:
‘North Port could spend $200,000 putting up barriers around unfinished swimming pools, cutting grass and removing debris from work sites. Residents say they support the program if it cleans up the city.’
‘I’ll like it when I see it,’ said Charlene Mottola, whose 12-year-old found syringes in an abandoned construction waste bin.’
I see “moats” up around failed housing projects in the Central Valley, here…
About every fourth gone broke, has a wall up around it.
We will soon get to the point where they don’t even block off eyesores, anymore.
Ben, how were they legally able to bulldoze, do you know? I’m just trying to figure out how that would work. We have, in some cases, developments with just a handful of people living in them, with the rest of the development rotting away, at least from what I can see driving around and I think you had one Florida post about a project in Riverview (near me) with only a few owners living there. What would happen to owners like that? Just thinking about it gives me a headaches.
The projects were abandoned and no one was paying for liability insurance, so the county would do it, or pay to have it done.
Can the counties take by eminent domain? I think in order to do so, they have to build something else. Could they level and make parks? Could they take some of the finished developments and make them into senior or low income housing?
If the counties took by eminent domain, they could justify it by saying they needed the open land so water could percolate down to the aquifer.
They probably do not actually “take” the land. The land still belongs to whoever it did before (bank, developer, etc.) but the cost of remediating the public nuisance could be attached to the land as a lien. As a somewhat similar thing, look at mowing enforcement in some cities, where they will mow your grass and bill you for it if you won’t do it yourself. For a more extreme example, look at parts of Orleans and St. bernard Parish in Louisiana, where they will bulldoze (some) houses.
For those who find it hard to believe that new home sites were bulldozed in the Texas bust, from the HT article:
I believe it because I saw it. In fact in the Dallas area, I was shopping for office space for the company and a home for myself. In one vacant office building, there were rattlesnakes (not the realtors) all over the place. We were told not to walk in certain areas due to the large population of snakes. In a house that was new and had been on the market for nearly 2 years, I saw scorpions all over the house and a rattlesnake in a bedroom closet.
“The home builder (Tousa) is shedding its home sites to account for the weak demand for housing. It abandoned rights to buy 9,400 home sites, forfeiting $167 million in deposits.”
You can’t say OUCH loud enough about those deposits.
The economic slowdown is hitting seasonal rentals in Florida. We use the web site vrbo.com (vacation rentals by owner) to choose our winter retreat in Sarasota. Here in mid-November, the calendars on many of the listed rentals have more open periods than booked periods during the January-March peak season. That was not so at this time last autumn.
My plan is to call or email owners, stating we’re retired and can’t really afford the full rate, offer something lower (20%), and offer to be flexible as to which week we get.
“My plan is to call or email owners, stating we’re retired and can’t really afford the full rate, offer something lower (20%), and offer to be flexible as to which week we get.”
Good idea, hope it works out for you. Sarasota folks are more educated, so you’ll probably get a deal. In my neck of the woods, though, we have a lot of stupid codgers who think liquid gold runs out of the faucets in some of the dumps they’re trying to rent.
Glad to hear you had good news, dimedropped.
(From yesterday’s comments.)
For those of you who laugh when I say the entire housing debacle was contrived and planned.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CreditPainIsGainForASelectFew.aspx
exeter, that is a great summation, especially for a dummy like me who has a hard time sorting all this arcane crap out. Thanks for posting.
I have a question regarding the Phoenix area. I purchased a number of tax certificates on unpaid property taxes in 2005 in Maricopa County. After three years you are allowed to foreclose to get the properties if the tax is unpaid. This may be the classic TV situation where property is purchased for the property taxes only. I have no interest in foreclosing on anybody out of their homes but want my money back. I have recently been called by a person that wants to buy my interest so they can foreclose and grab the property.
Does anyone on this blog understand how the process works and would you explain it to me/us? I am leaning toward calling the property owner and trying to get them to pay up but I want to be paid back.
Thank you.
This site may be helpful:
http://treasurer.maricopa.gov/research/az_calendar.htm
I’m not an expert in the field but a number of years ago someone who routinely “invested” in property tax certificates explained to me how it worked. The high bidder who obtains the tax certificate rarely forecloses, in fact he usually doesn’t want to. The statutory interest rate on the amount the succesful certificate bidder paid is often very high, like about two or three times prime. At some point the property owner, or mortgagee if there is one, realizes how dumb it is to let the property go for unpaid taxes. Almost always the owner or mortgagee redeems the certificate and pays the holder his costs plus the statutory interest. In effect, the tax certificate purchaser is a secured lender.
I don’t remember what jurisdiction this investor worked so you have to know the specifics of the city or county in which the property is situated. By the way he claimed an average return on investment of about 20% per year.
‘Realtors are their own worst enemies when they take overpriced listings,’ Forbes said.”
This is why the listings have dropped in the area. The problem of high inventory has not been resolved, it has been delayed until spring when the listings will go through the roof.
RE friend tells sellers the truth.. they don’t want to hear it..has lost some listings ..honestly and accuracy don’t cut it..thinking of telling him to lie in order to pay his bills. Nah.
Housing Worse, Despite Yelping NAR
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/11/14/housing-worse-despite-yelping-nar.aspx
from the article:
Sometimes you have to wonder what’s coming out of the water cooler at National Association of Realtors (NAR) headquarters.
The past week has seen the trade group issue a slew of misleading press releases, all intended to jump-start a withering housing market and earn those Realtors a 6% commission. The latest is a prediction of a “modest recovery” for existing home sales in 2008. If you believe that, you need to review the NAR’s hilarious history of ineptitude in predicting future home sales.
On the heels of the ridiculous kid-on-a-swing campaign, the Realtors, partying in Vegas, claimed that 2007 is a great year for housing, despite copious evidence that home prices are tanking at unprecedented and accelerating rates. The fire sales and lousy margins at homebuilders such as Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) provide more proof that prices are crashing.
i wish the msm would tell the truth like this guy does.
which state is #1 ? crash-wise
FL
Yes Florida and Palm Beach County was ground zero.
TOUSA - What a shock? I reviewed their financials some time ago and posted they would be gone - they are the 13th largest builder - KABOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Next….
What happened to my post?
Dunno, but I sure got a kick out of Bernanke Panky before it disappeared.
I missed that - What was typed?
Will there be any homebuilders left for the next boom?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071115/earns_tousa.html?.v=1
Better Q: Will there be the next boom for any homebuilders? Not in my lifetime, and I ain’t that old. Just wait’ll the full impact of the intellectual vapidity, drug addiction, and declining life expectancies of the Generation Obese crowd is felt in society - once these nose-pierced, tatooed, wire-wheeled-car-driving grunts get more into the mainstream the only boom left will be the occasionally exploding meth lab.
I’d bet that Florida’s “shortfall” is just the same as homeowners who MEW’ed to the hilt while prices were skyrocketing, now find themselves in a “bind” when prices start back down. In reality their revenue is way higher than it was just a few years ago.
This data just came out this morning about DC - I’ll bet Florida is in the same situation:
Year Property tax revenue ($ millions)
2007 $1,450
2006 1,180
2005 1,070
2004 940
2003 841
2002 713
2001 635
That to me is disgusting. I wish the MSM would latch onto this data - which I’m sure is the same in FL, CA, etc etc. It’s not just the guys on wall street that were making out like bandits during the bubble - all the local and state governments (and Federal even) did too.
BTW here’s links:
http://tinyurl.com/26yoss
http://tinyurl.com/25rf53
And of course what does the Washington Post do? They focus on the “spike” of tax *refunds* - a whopping $15 million, not the spike of revenues, which was over $800 million.
From the article:
she noted that the amount of property tax refunds was 105.7 percent higher than projected over three fiscal quarters, a jump not easily explained.
Not easily explained? Really? Besides some scamming internally in that department, wouldn’t it be obvious to them that when assessments and taxes soar like that, then a lot more people are going to fight their assessment, and (eventually) many will win? It’s even more likely when prices stagnat and (yes!) even start to drop.
Even if they get rid if the internal tax scammers in that department and make it squeaky clean (in DC, ha ha!), my bet is that the appeals and refunds are going to be soaring in the next couple of years.
stagnat=stagnate, oops
time to fire all gov workers that don’t carry a gun or fire hook
assit deputy development etc would be a start
According to our calculations, prices in most markets will fall by double digits over the next five years.
Here’s how we reached that disturbing conclusion. We started with the median price of existing homes in 54 metropolitan areas, using numbers from the National Association of Realtors. We then compared those prices with the annual rent on similar properties - houses, condos, and apartments with the same number of square feet as the median-priced house in each market - using figures prepared by Property & Portfolio Research, a commercial real estate research firm. That gave us a price/rent ratio for each area. Economy.com then compared the current P/R ratio with its average over the past 15 years and calculated how much it would have to decline to return to its historical norm. The average drop for all the markets we surveyed is 28%.
http://tinyurl.com/2czzta
News from Minnesota: “I guess we really aren’t that different here eh?”
Came across a public notice in the weekly Anoka County Shopper. Big 3/4 page ad for a public real estate auction. 34 parcels to be auctioned in 3 days. Some from Lundgren, all are brand new, never lived in homes. Some of them are not even finished. Looks like the builder ran out of money.
Some of these look darn nice, and the opening bids seem reasonable (start at $10k, $25k, $50k, $100k, $150k, $200k depending if it is finished, SFH or townhome, size of lot, and square footage). Although I am sure that they probably have some inflated “market value” minimum that they will accept. Too bad I don’t have time to sit in on one of these auctions this weekend.
I’d be willing to bet that there will probably be some knife catchers there over paying…
http://www.asacllc.com
But there is some encouraging news. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, believes that home values may start recovering next year because significant demand has been accumulating.
..
Nice wordsmithing.
But very wrong.
Either you have demand, or you don’t. When people are waiting for prices to fall to affordable levels, there is NO DEMAND.
Kinda like being pregnant. Either you are or you aren’t. You may wait to get pregnant, but until then YOU AREN’T. I have never heard of “accumulating pregnancy”.
“Pent up” or “accumulating” demand goes the same way. Either you are ready to buy or you aren’t. Until you are, there is no “demand”.
Wordspin from another soon-to-be-unemployed RE Asshat.
..
Accumulating pregnancy..
LOL
“‘I know the market is bad … but, I mean, how much more is it really going to go down?’
How much more is it going to go down? Only enough to save you a few years of salary, schoolteacher.
OT - anyone know of a site that comes close to MLS for office space ?
trying to rent out 2 floors for a friend and we get more calls from signs than the net w google/craigslist etc………
tia
Florida is digging themselves some hole with this Save our homes portability fiasco. Are FL politicos really this stupid? I’m an outsider (NY) ,but have family in FL. This ammendment is insane, who in their right mind would buy a home in FL.? especially as a seasonal resident. I started looking to FL for retirement, but there’s no way I’m paying those tax rates. I thought NY was bad.
Without inflation protection, it makes no sense to retire in Florida. You never know what they can decide to charge you in property tax.
With inflation protection, you can plan for property tax in retirement. Invest enough $$ in fixed income investments (or annuities, etc) to cover property tax + inflation.
But without it, it makes more sense to retire in California! They have high state income taxes, but a retiree would have a low income, so it matters less.
And without retirees, what is Florida for?
Before all these people moved to Florida and before the developers went crazy with overbuilding, it was a beautiful state with beautiful beaches, boating, fishing, and lots of outdoor activities. I like Florida but it has become too expensive, crime, etc. and I would not live there now.