Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For November 16, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
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S. Florida’s 5.1% inflation rate outpaces rest of U.S.
By Harriet Johnson Brackey | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
November 16, 2007
“Prices for consumer goods in South Florida are rising at a rate faster than in any metropolitan area in the nation. Again. The troubling news for consumers came Thursday from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metropolitan area rose at a 5.1 percent annual rate during the 12 months ended in October, compared with 3.5 percent nationwide.”
Move it along folks, nothing to see here…..
How dare Florida disregard the official 2% edict of inflation, from (Dr. Evil: I demand the sum… OF 1 MILLION DOLLARS.)
Just in case you missed it yesterday, here is what the FBI and Secret Service consider important activities to shut down. This is probably a good “tell” on what the gov’t considers an activity they would like to discourage from gaining a toehold.
http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1195158450.php
Wow, auger, scary stuff. Very significant, IMHO. The thing about the Feds is, a lot of times they’ll do this stuff, even when they’re clearly in the wrong, just to harrass the parties involved and force them to go to court. Rogue government entities.
BTW, thanks for the Fulford link, interesting read. Not sure how much of that was fact, but I do know he’s right about the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds.
Ok, I’m not seeing a problem here. A quick googling seems to say it was made clear to them this stuff was a no-no, current litigation or not. Feel free to explain.
Blano, unfortunately, our gov is making it up as it goes along, these days. Liberty says it is constitutional and legal, according to their research, and the current gov says not. So it has to be litigated. WHO made clear to them it was a no-no, the Mint? Anyone can say anything, these days, and they do. Like WMD in Iraq.
IIRC in my brief googling it was the Mint, but I don’t recall. It just seems that if Liberty could do it, then anyone could, with resulting chaos. Just my .02, but I freely admit I’m not up on the subject.
IMO, the whole purpose of the exercise (introducing silver/gold coins as barter instruments) is to bring attention to the inherent weakness and unfairness of fiat currencies as well as force litigation surrounding the use of gold/silver as written into the constitution.
I hate to see the US kicking down doors and confiscating stuff instead of proving their case in court, it shows the US has a weak hand as well as disdain for privacy & ownership rights (again, IMO).
As a side note, did you notice that this group had just taken delivery of a couple of tons of “Ron Paul” coins? Things that make you go “hmmm”.
When I read this last night, I thought it was a pretty clever spoof (the Ron Paul coins being a dead giveaway.) Even “Snopes’d” it– to no avail. This is for real?
No, really?
Yep. Go to ebay and see how the prices on these coins went way up after the confiscation. Yeah, it’s for real.
There are jack-booted Nazi’s in every government.
The veneer is wearing thin.
That article comes with a poll. So far 67% say they are considering moving because Florida is too expensive.
We’re going to Disney for a few days next week and want to try the brand new restaurant in Animal Kingdom. The prices are shocking. Guess how much for a plate of ribs at lunch? $22! Of course, they can get away with those prices because so many use their dining plan and because of the weak dollar. I really don’t think the average American can pay those prices.
Walt must be spinning in his grave.
You could generate quite a few mW of electricity with all the spinning Walt’s been doing the past few years.
Certainly a solution to our energy problem: hook up generators to dead patriots.
DCA alone would have created enough spinning to generate enough electricity to supply L.A. Add on Atlantas, Home on the Range, Valiant, Jungle Book 2, and all the direct to video crap, and you could power the whole planet!
There may be many things that the Disney Corp is doing that are causing walt to spin in his cryogenic tank, but charging huge amounts of money for food at the parks isn’t one of them.
Walt made it clear that he didn’t want to gouge Disneyland’s customers. It was only after his demise that food prices went up and parking was no longer free.
Just found out that the Airport Hotel in Orlando that used to allow free parking for up to two weeks if I stayed overnight (and paid the inflated rate) and took the shuttle is now charging $3/day to leave car. No big deal - just another small Florida datum. And, oh, yeah, and those niggling $2, then $3, then $5 charges at the auto shop for “shop supplies” (grease, hand cleaner, and other normal costs of running a business which have no business being broken out and passed on) are now $10, I noticed.
Disney is very expensive for the average American family…but if you are dealing with euro/pound its a great time to travel there…
CPI excludes gas and food. Funny thing is everyone looks at gas and food first to conclude if there is inflation or not. I’m pretty sure that’s because both are a form of energy and are very obvious when the price fluctuates. Mens trousers? Not so much.
Food and energy are also the things we can’t do without.
If clothing goes up, we wait for clearence, buy at Target instead of the mall, or just keep wearing last year’s jeans for another year (oh, the horror).
Cost of a vacation goes up, we downgrade to a cheaper hotel or head to a cheaper destination.
Things like our housepayment and car payment are pretty locked in. If we rent, and the landlord hits us with an increase, we can move to another place with lower rates. If we need a new car, we can move to a cheaper model or forgo some upgrades.
But, if gas gos up, we HAVE to fill the tank to get to work. If electircity goes up, I still need to run the stove, lights, water heater, washer and dryer, etc. If food goes up, we still have to buy milk, eggs, hamburger, etc.
Food and energy are the first increases to be passed along to the consumer, and the ones we can’t avoid.
No CPI Includes food and gas. The CORE CPI excludes those items because of the belief they their volatility obscures underlying price movements.
http://www.mindfully.org/Food/2007/Price-Foods-Rising14aug07.htm
[snippet] “The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its July inflation report that egg prices are 33.7 percent higher than they were in July 2006. Over the same period, according to the department’s consumer price index, whole milk was up 21.1 percent; fresh chicken 8.4 percent; navel oranges 13.6 percent; apples 8.7 percent. Dried beans were up 11.5 percent, and white bread just missed double-digit growth, rising by 8.8 percent.”
I’m afraid I typed the wrong price for that $22 rib plate. It’s actually $23.99!! Ah, well, we’re staying in a 3/2 condo for a little less than 100/night with a full (granite counters even) kitchen. That’s one thing the housing bubble has done - provided lots of cheap condo rentals.
Just bring sandwiches, snacks and water bottles. Get the kids an ice cream for a treat. Go off property to Lake Buena Vista. There’s a Chevy’s Mexican, Pizzaria Uno, Fridays, Perkins….. All pretty normal prices. Have fun!
if you go to a park with the kids. They have about 6 hours, 8 hours maximum until they are out of energy. If you take out 1 hour for off site lunch. you lose 1/6 of your time at the park. 1/6 of admission is $12;
Unless I’m remembering incorrectly, Disney does not allow you to bring food or drinks (except presumably a bottle or two of water) into the theme parks.
I’m afraid I typed the wrong price for that $22 rib plate. It’s actually $23.99!!
That’s an outrage! $22 is one thing but come on, $23.99?
Don’t think of it as 22 dollars, think of it as 10 pounds.
Guess how much for a plate of ribs at lunch? $22! … I really don’t think the average American can pay those prices.
This is a vacation resort, not the local diner. If you can afford to pay for a flight to FL, afford to pay the park admission, you can spring for the extra, what, $10 for a plate of ribs. Or don’t eat at the restaurant and grab something outside of the park.
Vacations - especially to Disney - are a luxury, not an entitlement. Eating at a resort restaurant is an extreme luxury. Personally, my wife, kids and I have a great time at our local Six-Flags amusement park, museums, and other family destinations. We do Disney once every 5 years or so.
Actually, we live near Disney and go quite often. We never complained about the prices because we live in a resort area and are used to expensive restaurant prices.
It’s only since Disney started pushing the dining plan and since the dollar started falling that Disney restaurant prices went crazy. Universal’s prices are still fine as are the restauants we visit on Sanibel and Boca Grande. I’m telling you it’s the funny money that lets them get away with this.
Did you guys just see the Brits on CNBC gushing about how cheap our mall stuff is (for them)?
This is a vacation resort, not the local diner. If you can afford to pay for a flight to FL, afford to pay the park admission, you can spring for the extra, what, $10 for a plate of ribs. Or don’t eat at the restaurant and grab something outside of the park.
The problem with WDW is that “outside the park” is miles away, unlike in Anaheim where Harbor Blvd is a stone’s throw away from the park gates. You are captive at WDW, which is why we have only been there once, whereas in Anaheim within a few blocks on Harbor you have choices ranging from Mickey D’s to Morton’s steak house.
Wow. If they’re admitting 5.1% it must really be in the 15-20% range.
Maybe someday south FL will resemble South America more than anyone ever imagined it would?
Well they certainly already have the South Americans living there…
Try to get the image of the 1980 SA out of your thoughts. It has moved into the 21st century and even countries like Ecuador that had rampaging inflation in the ’80s are under 5% and they include food and oil in their figures.
Most countries in Latin America GDPs are growing faster than 5%. (I am not invested in Venezuela so I do not wish to look up their growth).
I agree — Latin America is obviously not problem-free, but there are a lot of wonderful places there, and a lot of exciting opportunities, too.
Brazil is finally starting to realize its potential as an uber-Australia and several other countries benefit from oil prices. Panama has the canal and huge Chinese direct investment. That’s pretty much the whole story.
Latin Americans tend to be poorly educated, and there are layers of regulation and corruption, courtesy of the clergocracy. There is a general mistrust of economic freedom. Every time a country starts to make progress it turns hard to the left. Bolivar has been rolling over in his grave for 180 years.
Hoz — good point. When I traveled there last year, I was surprised at how first-world things were in the southern half of the continent. I went expecting to find dirt-cheap prices for most anything and was very disappointed. It is incorrect to conclude that everyone from South America wants to live in the U.S. Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have what looked to me to be very high standards of living in the capital cities. Granted, there must be poor areas, especially where the indigenous are concerned, but it’s a far cry from conditions in most of Central America.
Apparently, you are not allowed to dump baby powder into the water in the Pirates of the Caribbean theme ride either. (Per recent news heard somewhere.) Mama is lucky she wasn’t strip searched.
So happy I left…great to visit..never going back to live
We’re leaving after Thanksgiving and I’m getting cold feet (or I will up North!) and I KNOW I’ll miss the weather, thanks for reminding me that I won’t miss anything else. The good thing is I can always come back… on the cheap!
After living just 3 years in Sarasota, the first winter here was “brutal.” Temps often in the low 30s and even upper 20s at night! Oh, the horror.
After the first winter, no problem.
Uh, thanks but I’m going to the twin cities, the frozen tundra. It’s going to hurt when I’m outside. Not so much when I’m at McGovern’s having a pint.
RE: Temps often in the low 30s and even upper 20s at night! Oh, the horror.
Huh?
That’s just fine roll up the shirt sleeve wood chopping weather here in the north country.
It’s the couple of maybe weeks of -10/20 below in Jan. that tends to bite a bit.
When real estate always was going up, the BLS somehow managed to overlook housing price inflation as a CPI component. But now that real estate is going down, lower housing prices are easing Fed inflation fears. Am I missing something?
(Reference: 11/16/07 WSJ p. A2
Data May Ease Fed Inflation Fears
Housing, Auto Costs Offset Rise in Energy Prices; Weekly Earnings Decline)
Housing is a portion of the CPI “Basket” but if you look closely at how the data is calculated; the “Basket” is now two years old. http://www.bls.gov/cpi
Shelter component of housing weight in CPI
Dec 06 (CPI-U) = 32.776
Dec 01 (CPI-U) = 31.522
If the shelter component of the CPI = 1/3 of the basket, then how could a doubling of home prices possibly reconcile with low CPI inflation, absent obfuscatory legerdemain?
Because they look at RENTS, not purchase prices. The idea is to eliminate the distorting effects of RE bubbles from the calculations. After all, nobody HAS to purchase thier housing, they CHOOSE to do so to avoid “renting forever.”
GC…. do you really mean to say they are lying??? NO WAY!!!!!
Wait a moment… Housing and auto are down enough to offset energy prices? Are these people on crack? One can’t enter into a month to month deal on housing or a car and have them be reasonable!
What’s with Atlanta? “Housing Tracker” http://tinyurl.com/2ucl9f
puts the inventory at 118,457. That’s more than Phoenix, San Diego, and Las Vegas combined. In fact, the population of the greater Atlanta area appears to be less than 500.000.
What’s really confusing is that with this huge inventory, prices seem to be holding better than most.
Is Atlanta different?
Population of greater Atlanta (roughly two counties out in a circle from center) is approx. 4.5 million, or a little over half the state total.
Majority of population in San Diego, Phoenix, San Antonio, etc. is in city proper. Most major cities east of the Mississippi have quite small populations relative to metro areas.
Zip says 77.5K in Metro Atlanta… And, census saya 5 million in the metro area. But yeah, that is a lot of houses. Why are they not crashing?
With 5/4 * 55K (adjusting to PHX numbers) being 69k, they are listing at a higher population adjusted rate than PHX. Why no crash? Slower rate of construction durning the boom?
I really think PHX is crashing hard because of builders being SOOOOO agressive with price cuts. Builders are badly undercutting the existing home market here.
Curt — I have been watching that market for more than two years. What I see is that “asking” prices are holding. The sales in areas I care about have been at prices noticeably lower than the original asking price. Many, many people are holding onto their wishing prices because, presumably, they don’t yet have to move. With the volume of ARM origination during the late stage of the bubble, I’d think that more and more of these folks will cry “uncle” and drop their prices. BTW, Georgia has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation and the process is particularly brutal in terms of time. Granted, most of those are lower-income housing, but the housing market in Georgia, IMO, is not at all “peachy” right now.
Where the happy-talkers will mislead you is with statistics that purport x% of houses sold for almost their full asking price. What they withhold is that the near-asking price at which they sold was the reduced asking price, not the original one.
Atlanta is different! It is due for - and getting -a stealth screwing that will soon become evident to all but the totally clueless. The incredible overbuilding and inappropriate building and totally crappy construction will blow up big in Atlanta. Why, just today, this story of the most hyped condos in Marietta being auctioned for well under 50% of list by Hudson and Marshall. This development has been hyped for months in the Marietta Daily Journal and the developer is the Mayor’s very good friend and the project isbeneficiary of a very questionable TAD (taxpayer assisted development):
http://www.mdjonline.com/content/index/showcontentitem/area/1/section/15/item/98716.html
Yes, this is the same Marietta Daily Journal that ran a major editorial earlier this week that “Now is a great time to buy a home” . Related to this, the huge illegal population here that was the backbone of construction has greatly diminished. Figures bandied about are 250,000 have left the Atlanta area. I can personally attest to a sizeable reduction.
In addition, in today’s Cherokee Tribune, the announcement of the cease- of-operations of the longtime President of The Cherokee County Homebuilder’s Association and his resignation as President. Just recently this guy was the sponsor of the Ty Pennington Dream Home in Cherokee County. Both Cobb and Cherokee are poster kids for sprawl, trafic nightmares, shoddy construction , etc.
I worh 7 days/ 12 hrs for the military industrial complex and barely have time to **** but the signs of a hard downturn are everywhere. It is going to slam Atlanta hard; it is just that the media is trying to ignore or gloss over the facts, and Atlanta is known for its super- Boosterism. Of course the Gooberner is leading prayers for rain… needs to be some serious prayers for brains… as they are greatly lacking here.
the link:
http://www.cherokeetribune.com/content/index/showcontentitem/area/7/section/23/item/98671.html
RE: Is Atlanta different?
Got water?
It is pretty clear that the nation is headed for a recession.
How does one prepare for the coming recession that will
probably be the worse one since the great depression?
Pay off all debts before your cash is worthless and/or unaccessable. Get a gov’t job where you cannot be fired. Invest in areas that will be minimally impacted by the slowdown, i.e. they will hold their value. Precious metals comes to mind but I am sure there are others.
I was told yesterday to conserve cash and stop extra paying down of debt. Debt will be paid back with the cheaper dollars and it’s more important to have at least 6 mos of cash to cover expenses.
Yeah, it’s important to have cash reserves. Once you have 6 moths saved up then do your best to knock out the debt completely. I can’t tell you how comforting it is to have a stash - it significantly reduces the strain of living on the edge. Completely getting out of debt is difficult, but well worth it. Debt free with cash reserves is a great feeling - keep working toward that goal.
Get rid of expensive things such as boats, RVs, motorcycles (unless they are your primary transportation) and other pricy toys. Get of these things right away while there is still a market for them.
Cut back on the little expenditures that add up over time (example: the daily dose of a $4 Starbucks latte).
Quit smoking. Cut back on eating out at restaurants.
Think frugal, think cheap. Think make do or do without.
How about seeing if you can live in a much smaller and cheaper place?
Do you REALLY need 2500 sq ft or 3-4 bedrooms when 2000 or 1500 or 1-2 bedrooms will do just fine? or maybe sell and buy something with a bigger backyard…..or move close to a busline so you need only 1 car and not 2
Con Ed is proposing a 17-20% increase in electric rates and we pay get this over 20 cents a KWH already! yes 20 cents a kwh!
We pay 7 cents here. Amazingly cheap.
Same here
But you also forget that most of us do not pay for heat hot water or gas separately. Most 2 family houses have 1 furnace, and 1 water meter and most times 1 gas meter. same with most apartment buildings, the last place we lived had 16 apartments, but only 1 oil boiler,1 main gas and water meter (the stoves were gas), and in NYC its illegal to share utilities….the gas water heat were all included in the monthly rent. So the landlord must be good at math…. You cant legally just split the bill 16 or 2 ways…….
7.4 cents in kingman az
Wow. 14 cents is a good rate in Houston (you can get a 10-12 cent plan with strings, but will end up paying the 14 when all is said and done). Can’t wait to move to KC where the rates are lower.
12.1 Australian Cents here in Canberra.
4 dollar coffees and a recession, looks like some people are taking your advice.
Starbucks Corp. slashed its earnings outlook for the fourth quarter after it reported traffic at stores open at least 13 months dropped by 1 percent — the first time a decline has ever been reported by the coffee retailer. The company said late Thursday it also plans to slow the pace of U.S. store openings.
I was wondering when Starbucks would start to fall. I can easily walk from my house to three different Starbucks stores. It’s absurd how many they built.
1. Get 1 year of food storage. Check
2. Eliminate debt. Check
3. Save up minimum of 1 year living expenses in cash. Check
4. Guns ‘n’ ammo to keep the food and cash. Check
5. Short as many crappy mortgage, builder, insurance, bank, etc stocks as you can (but not using your living expenses cash). Check
6. Get a job in a recession proof industry. Almost check
7. Move to where you can have a small farm and be self sufficient. Almost check
Depending on your circumstances, number seven can substitute for number six to some extent. The way food prices are skyrocketting, being a small farmer may be a better return on your money invested in the land purchase than anything else.
My report card:
Food storage: if we don’t hit the grocery store this weekend, we’ll be eating out becuase there is nothing in the cupboard.
Eliminate debt: $30K credit card…. all at 6% or less until paid off, $130K base mortgage with $20K HELOC ARM, $60K student loans, $20K 401K loan.
Save up 1 year’s living expenses: I had to transfer $300 from my $500 savings account to make it to payday.
Guns and ammo: I have a couple guns for hunting. a half box of ammo for the shotgun. half a box for the 30-06. brick of rounds for the .22, semi-auto.
Short crappy companies: Only savings is in our 401-Ks with no “short” options. We’re all in treasuries with our… $40K ($60K - $20K loan)
Job in recession proof industry. I’m in software. Wife is in IT. Wife works for hospital chain. I work for a company that generates most of its income from healthcare… That’s better than my last job that made its income from retailers.
Be able to grow your own food. I live in a sub-division in a desert with questionable water supply.
Hmmmmm… wonder why I’m having trouble sleeping at night.
Our greenhouse is coming along nicely and soon, our arch-enemy from down under, will have to find better Elysian Fields to steal from, as it’s got a cement floor.
I speak of the thieving, down-right-no-good gopher.
Darrell,
No problem, switch to plan B. When the SHTF take your gun and go find someone else who has food storage and cash reserves and encourage them to contribute to your cause.
I feel very blessed to be in the situation I am in today. First, the prophet of the Mormon church of which I’m a part has been preaching food storage and getting out of debt for some time. And in the last several years he has issued several warnings about shady mortgages, not to get involved in them and has then reitterated his council to get out of debt. Truely the word of God IMHO.
Dos, due to my involvement in the housing industry and my non-conforming nature I identified this mess years ago. When interviewing in Tampa in early 2004 it was obvious to me a crash was in the making, when we realised we couldn’t afford to buy any home with an above average salary.
Drei, My wife has been very understanding and we have worked together as a team. The reason I am debt free has a lot to do with selling our house that we worked hard to fix up. While we didn’t make a killing, we got out from under the mortgage and the $6k we cleared paid off the car. We then quadrupple paid on the mini-van to get it paid off in a couple of months. I feel very blessed not to have had the high student debt most of our friends have - I paid the $7,700 I borrowed with one check on money a saved while deployed overseas (this was before I met my wife). And my wife has been willing to pull up roots here in Houston where we’ve lived most of our married life and move to Missouri where we can have a farm in the country, yet be close to the city for my work.
Our family has been blessed, but while you may not be in quite as good shape, I know if you do your best, don’t live extravagantly, pull together with your family, and trust in God that things will work out one way or another. Maybe not how you’d like, maybe having to go through a lot of hardship. But in the end if you have your family around you, you have the basic necessities of life, and you still have your faith then what more can you ask for?
I feel very blessed to be in the situation I am in today. First, the prophet of the Mormon church of which I’m a part has been preaching food storage and getting out of debt for some time.
I have a friend who was raised Mormon. He doesn’t practice anymore, but most of his brothers and sisters do. He was telling me and some other people about this philosophy recently — said his sister (still in Utah) has a year’s worth of food, a cache of dollars in both small and large denominations, no debt, suitcase packed and ready to go.
It’s impressive. And probably wise.
My problem is that I got married at 20 and divorced 5 (almost 6) years ago at 35. During the divorce there was a real risk of lifetime alimony. To avoid lifetime alimoney I gave her all the assets and took the debt (including lawyer fees to the tune of $10K… all my fees and half hers.). I also had to agree to pay $800 a month alimony for 5 years (ended last Feb) on top of $1000 a month child support (2 more years to go).
Oh, and the divorce happened in the middle of the tech wreck (I’m a computer programmer). I had to move from CO to AZ to get a job with only a 10% cut. I finally got back to where I was in 2000 after my raise earlier this year. The move was the straw that broke the camel’s back of a very long and ugly marriage.
Anyway. By the time I finished paying off the $9600 a year alimony, my debt level had risen from about $20K to about $40K. Time to pay off that debt in 4 years, right?
Nope. Alimoney is taxed to teh receiver not the payer, so $800 a month turned into only $500 after taxes…. oops. AND, I was already spending $5K a year or so more than I make.. which is how the debt got that much bigger. And, interest on the rising debt eats up a chunk. I have been able to start paying down the debt, but only by recently getting a raise and by cutting back spending, not from the $9600 a year that I’d planned to devote fully to debt reduction.
I met a great lady. She too recently got a nice pay raise. Unfortunatly, she has the $60K in student loans (recently got a Masters, which is why she got the big raise). Also, she had about $30K in uncovered medical expenses this year (which is where we got teh HELOC debt). We’re looking at getting a $10K tax refund because of the medical expenses. That will go 100% to debt reduction.
Anyway, as I said, we’ve cut back spending. We’re paying down the debt slowly. We hope the healthcare related jobs will help in the coming recession.
And, we’re hoping…..hoping that things will be okay, or if they are not, we’re hoping that family will pull together.
Hang in there. Sometimes bad things happen to good people. You haven’t been living extravagantly, so it’s been a string of bad luck/situations - you’re due for a break. Do your best and let tomorrow take care of itself.
Yo Darrell~
You have my full and complete empathy relative to the financial hardship you’ve endured resulting from your divorce.
Be very thankful you went thru the divorce deal @ 35. You have a couple decades left to recover.
I got trashed @ 47.
My -ex wrecked 20 years of hard work in 2 years.
I’ve finally come to grips with the reality I’ll never be able to retire.
The advice I pass on to my son…Don’t ever get suckered into a ” wifey stays home and plays with the kids” deal.
It’s the kiss of financial death.
hd74man,
I’ve been reading and enjoying your posts for a couple of years now, and I am sorry for the tough times you’ve been through. But never be able to retire–I wouldn’t count yourself out yet. You’re a smart, resouceful guy, and the economic landscape is changing drastically. Keep your eyes open for opportunities, even if you have to leave your beloved Mazz. Things ought to start breaking your way.
all best,
In answer to the question about cash, I mean paper dollars somewhere secure (not a bank) that you have easy access to. Need for such doesn’t have to be a doomsday scenario either. Having spent some time on location helping with the Katrina (also the name of one of my daughters, when I heard the name I knew New Orleans was in for it) it is quite possible that large areas can be without power for up to a month. Typically we use our CC for our budgetted purchases and then pay it off each month. Hard to do with no power.
While gold and silver are good inflation hedges, try buying something at the grocery store with PM. Obviously cash on hand is constantly devaluing due to inflation, so the rest of your money should be invested in something giving you a return.
Anyway that’s my take on things. I like being prepared for the worst, that way I can be pleasantly suprised when things don’t turn out that bad, while everyone else is running around like their hair is on fire because things are a little worse than they are prepared for.
oops. Should read: the Katrina and Rita cleanup…
I also helped out at Katrina. I met folks who were buying $400 generators for $1000. Highway robbery they said, supply and demand I said.
I now keep $4000 in cash on hand.
1. food - 2 week supply…
2. Eliminate debt. Check
3. 1+ years of living expenses in cash / gold / silver
4. Gun with one case of ammo, must buy more ammo / guns
5. Shorting the dollar, need to learn how to short the rest
6. Self employed, dependent upon gov. contracts, nothing in the pipeline after 7/08. Ouch!
7. Renting a house w/ no yard but live in farm country.
Score: 3.5/7
1. Get 1 year of food storage: I have about two weeks in cuboard, and about 100 pounds of unwashed black beans from the farmer across the road.
2. Eliminate debt: $105,000 left at 5.35% fixed. No can do on paying off now.
3. Save up minimum of 1 year living expenses in cash: Have this much combined in savings account, money market fund (SEI … uh oh) and gold coins gifted from father-in-law. Do you mean cash cash?
4. Guns ‘n’ ammo to keep the food and cash. No can do, according to wife.
5. Short as many crappy mortgage, builder, insurance, bank, etc stocks as you can: TIAA-CREF does not let me engage in these sorts of behaviors
6. Get a job in a recession proof industry: Non-tenured at a NY state university, but wildly popular in the dept… hmmm
7. Move to where you can have a small farm and be self sufficient: Had the solar rep out this morning. Can get a 3000 watt grid tie-in system for $30,000 -$12,000 NYS incentives -$2,000 fed tax credit and -$5,000 NYS income tax credit (which I would have to roll over for several years) = total cost $11,000. Will eliminate electric bill in winter, and cut summer bill (need AC for wife’s medical condition) by 2/3. Have about 8 facecords of wood and efficient stove. Deep in the country, but poor soils.
Did I pass?
RE: Guns ‘n’ ammo to keep the food and cash. No can do, according to wife
Enormous problem…
When the SHTF we’ll see where all this feminist equality shit ends up.
1.” Get 1 year of food storage.” if it gets this bad we’re in too deep.
2. “Eliminate debt.” czech here . no debt. house paid for (bay area!). land paid for. not bad huh? never credit card debt. live modestly.
3. “Save up minimum of 1 year living expenses in cash.” do you mean actual cash? we’re diversified in liquid assets like treasuries and gold.
4.”Guns ‘n’ ammo to keep the food and cash.” if it gets this bad, oy vey! no guns for this family
5.”Short” -how do you do that? i am a doof when it comes to stocks. will read up on it,
6.” Get a job in a recession proof industry.” health care, my wife, me an artist-used to struggling but with over 5 yrs stashed away in savings
7.” Move to where you can have a small farm and be self sufficient.” bought land in upstate ny. not so good in winter but perhaps a small greenhouse would work
Does anyone really know how long can foods last ?Also, some of new packaging is questionable to me .Beans and rice seem to be a good food stable in a emergency ,but you woud also need fruits . Darn ,I hate canned fruit .
If you get grains away from oxygen and moisture they can last an amazingly long time. around 30 years for wheat, maybe 3 years for rice (has a high moisture content). You can freeze dry pack stuff, but what we do is get food grade buckets with air-tight lids (I use gammas). For those who are on a budget, you can usually get 25# icing buckets from Krogers for free - I’ve seen them retailed for $10 each. It takes me about 10-15 minutes each bucket to get it completely clean.
Fruit is more of a problem. We buy in bulk (around 200# at a time) and can it ourselves. The main problem wit that is you have to watch out for botulism. If you eat your canned stuff within a year it’s not really an issue. After a year you need to biol for 10 minutes before eating just to be safe. Or if you have a deep freeze with generator/solar back-up you can do away with the canning.
Veggies you can grow in your back yard/green house. If this is not an option you can store a lot of seeds in a small place and sprout them. The sprouts are about as good for you as the veggies, so as long as you like the taste you’re good to go.
For more info you can go to providentliving.org, or just ask your local mormon about food storage (good luck getting them to stop talking).
Our canned goods tend be have a use-by date of about a year from now, today, i’m winnowing out stuff that’s a little too close, to give to the local food bank.
The bigger issue with canned fruit, is a lot of it comes from China…
Military MREs will last almost forever, are chock full of calories and don’t taste half bad.
So where does the German come from? ‘doof’, ‘oh vey’.
I think there should be a number 8 — Have up to date passport
Never hurts to have some extra ammo to trade, especially if you live in a rural area. Often you can get .22 ammo 500/$10 on sale. I suggest some .22, 7.62×39, .223, and 12 gauge. Even if you don’t have a gun to go with it, in many areas it can trade as easily or better than small silver coins. Ammunition can beat many other assets in bad times - it has intrinsic value, and it can have a very long shelf life, if properly stored. We’re still shooting WWII surplus in some calibres.
if you’ve got cash, hang onto it.. i go against the grain of the blog and believe cash will be king.. money will be very tight regardless of how one calculates it’s buying power.
Unless one is comfortably retired and/or has the resources to hybernate, the bottom line for survival will be maintaining a steady income of some sort, imo. Find some high ground and dig in.
The most important thing is to have a plan for all emergencies. Clean water is most important and usually the first thing to go. If you have weapons, know how to use them. Have a place to hide or maintain a low profile. The bad guys will have guns too.
heh .. well.. i went through my total-armageddon-preparation phase a few years ago and learned a few things that might come in handy.. such education should be part of any well rounded emergency preparations, imo.
lets pick a weird one.. ok.. you have that gun but no ammo. Uh oh.
but have no fear.. The component that is most difficult to acquire can be found and extracted from the soil under old chicken coups.
In the early days of modern Israel it was ammo that was in short supply. Ammo is hard to make. Simple guns by contrast, are considerably easer.
The truly hardcore that I know hoard reloading supplies.
i got a feeling that if the SHTF, the actual survivors and their skill set will not be what most ’survivalists’ expect..
A puppy is cute, threatens nothing, barks when strangers approach and has too little meat to bother eating it. Excellent chance of survival.
Interesting article which could create a nationwide mess. Court in Cleveland ruled that Deutsche Bank could not foreclose on 14 properties because they could not show proof of ownership due to loans being packaged and sold to securities.
Hope this link works.
http://www.ohio.com/news/top_stories/11421351.html
Free houses in Cleveland!! Get your free house!!
Long discussion about this yesterday. The judge didn’t rule out foreclosures. Banks didn’t bother to track down who actually owned the loan — not an easy task with all the tranching. Instead, banks used to cut corners in foreclosures just by “saying” who owned the debt. The judge put the kibosh on this shortcut and now requires banks to track down the physical title deeds to prove ownership.
Just a little extra time and money, that’s all.. FB’s might get a few months reprieve, but I suspect the bank will extract its pound of flesh later.
The take on this by some is that the federal court really didn’t want to be bothered with foreclosure actions. Apparantly, you’re allowed to go to federal court if parties aren’t in the same state, and the amount is greater than 70k. DB’s lawyers argued that they’re allowed to get away with this shoddy lack of paperwork in state court. To which the judge told tham that you have to get the deeds of trust registered BEFORE I will listen to this case. It was dismissed “without prejudice,” which means that DB is perfectly free to refile their case AFTER they get all their paperwork done.
I’m getting sent to a conference after Thanksgiving. Could make my return flight early in the day, or could hang around to hear the speaker:
James E. Glassman, Phd, Managing Director and Senior Economist, JP Morgan Chase on “After the Storm…the Economy in 2008″
Should I stay to hear him or cut out early?
C’mon Polly, stay and give the man some support. Show some charity for God’s sake!! The season of goodwill is upon us.
I was thinking along the lines of is this community interested in a report from your intrepid reporter.
I guess the season of Goodwill precludes a decision based on whether he is going to show up early to hear me, huh?
Yes, take one for the team and go listen to the economist. Take good notes and report back here. And for fun have some nasty questions ready for the man.
I believe many of these economists fully saw this coming and were in on the scam. I have a friend high up in the power structure who builds refineries. I’ve kept him informed over the last few years and he recently put forth some of the information I’ve given him to some head economists of international corps. They confirmed everything and said they’ve been aware for some time. All this while releasing misleading statements to the MSM that everything’s fine and there’s no problem.
Experts are able to get away with misleading the masses for their own proffit because they know they can just claim ignorance after the fact. After all, when J6P gets blind sided, it will make him feel better thinking that the experts weren’t any smarter than he was. So J6P will buy the I-didn’t-know excuse hook, line and sinker.
Polly,
see if they hand out any hard copies of his address…”after the storm…in 2008″??? Is he freaking kidding?. The thunderheads are still building…the storm hasn’t arrived yet.
He is not drivel. Hear him out.
The fact that the title of the session is “After the Storm…the Economy in 2008″ would indicate otherwise. 2008 will not be “after the storm”. We’re just getting the outer bands - haven’t even gotten to the eye wall yet.
LOL, mostly he deals with Asia.
“After the Storm…the Economy in 2008″
Didn’t he mean during the storm? For most people, it has’nt even started drizzling.
i’d like to hear it .. the guy got letters.. and how much might one new idea be worth?
but who knows.. we got Polly and he might be a regular here too.
Sounds like a consensus - I’ll stay to hear him out and report back.
Can’t ask mean questions given my position. Don’t even know if he will be taking questions. Sorry.
To Russ, what supporting data leads you to believe that this will be the largest recession since the great depression? At this point, it seems that most experts think that a recession will be narrowly missed or else regional in nature?
“Experts” are wrong. They are mostly cheerleaders for their own personal interests.
If you look at the last few recessions, the general public knows we’re in a recession before the “experts” do. We won’t know for sure until GDP numbers start coming out, but according to polls, most people believe we’re in one now.
I don’t know how to avoid one–we have some cities that have 1 in 40 homes in foreclosure. And we have two or three years of resets coming.
You know, we should maybe consider this issue a bit more deeply in a weekend thread.
Seriously, the track record of “experts” is truly awful. I’m sure it wouldn’t be too hard for us to dig up some superb examples. For instance, how about Greenspan recommending ARM’s in ‘05, a classic if ever there was one.
What first comes to mind is the dot com bust–the Henry Bodgetts of the world were on CNBC telling everyone to keep buying whatever it was they held.
And Bush 41 lost the election in 92 because he claimed the economy was great when everyone knew it wasn’t.
Give me time, I’m sure I can think of more if I can get my memory to go back 20 more years!
41 also lost because he promised “no new taxes’ then promptly signed into law the biggest tax increase in US history.
Dukakis lost to 41 because he honestly said that whether he or 41 won they would have to raise taxes!!
And we wonder why politicians won’t be honest!!
Meh…
Dukakis lost because the country had just gone through 68 months (or close to it) of economic growth.
This followed a recession (early 80’s), stagflation (mid-late 70’s) and gas lines (mid and late 70s’).
At that point (1988), a clown could have run for office from the party in power and he would have won.
I thought one did.
ARM is a perfectly fine instrument when used properly. The issue is that we had morons using ARMs to squeeze themselves into houses they had no business to be in.
Yeah, funny how the “expert”failed to mention this at the time.
By the way, an ARM should NOT be used by the vast majority of the general public.
It all depends on a cost of money in your tax bracket vs. return on the investment for the difference between ARM and fixed payment.
The old rule of thumb was that an ARM was recommended if you were only staying put for a few years. That’s really not an option these days–depending on the “average time on market”. You have to have a really great price to be able to sell in less than a year, and by then your value has gone down to below what you’ve paid for it.
“The issue is that we had morons using ARMs to squeeze themselves into houses they had no business to be in.”
******
Let’s not forget the moron enablers, specifically here in the Alt-A Bay Area - also known as realtors and lenders - who pushed the morons to use those ARMs because the Fed chair said it was the thing to do.
[Alt-A Bay = SF Bay]
And whether interest rates are HIGH or LOW. There’s something to be said for not paying extra to lock in a High mortgage rate. Getting an ARM would paid off for many who got them in the early 80s. What kind of idiot gets an ARM when the 30 year fixed rate is less than 6%, I don’t know.
Good question BostonGuy. I am 63 years old and have lived through a number of recessions. The events that are unfolding now are similiar to the events that caused the past recessions.
Real estate bust and high energy cost are just two that comes
to mind. I really hope the nation does not have a recession.
I have seen a lot of pain during the past recessions. It is no fun
to see people out of work and turning to crime to live.
I humbly agree Russ, the US has never entered a recession with a negative savings rate. Even in the great depression, the negative savings rate showed up 3 years after it started. This will not be fun.
I heard Howard Davidowitz on WBBR Bloomberg this morning saying the key element in accurate forecasting of recession is the negative savings rate. He stated that the savings rate has been negative for 24 consecutive months. I have not verified that number but with the confluence of spiraling fuel prices, foreclosures and nothing but crappy $10/hr jobs, I see nothing but pain ahead.
The negative number is correct. If the number were calculated the same way as previously, the negative savings rate would be -3.5% instead of -0.7%. The government includes government employees pension plans as savings.
Are IRA’s and 401k’ counted as savings?
In rare exceptions. For practical purposes, no.
“The negative number is correct.”
As I pointed out yesterday with respect to certain accounting practices for debt gone bad, if you don’t like how your numbers are coming out, consider changing your calculation.
If we are heading for a real recession then your IRA/401k are worthless. Take the money out, pay the taxes and use the cash wisely. Investing into 401k and IRA means betting on congress not needing the money for their pet programs in the event of a recesssion.
Guess I’m in the minority on this one — I thought that recessions were an unavoidable and somewhat necessary part of the natural economic cycle. I’m as old as Russ and have seen many recessions and survived them all, once or twice as blissfully ignorant as many of those who occupy homes on which they have not over-borrowed and who have pretty steady jobs. It seems to me that trying to avoid a recession at all costs just makes it worse when it inevitably happens.
Now that is an interesting stat. I hadn’t even thought about people making it through a recession OK because they had money in the bannk despite the fact that I did it myself. Without the cusion, I would have had to move back in with mom and dad or given up my COBRA health insurance very quickly - possibly both.
Yikes.
With 93% of the S&P 500 reporting “operating earnings” have fallen 8%
y.o.y and “as reported earnings” have fallen 28% y.o.y. This is the
first y.o.y drop in both values since 2001 when the US was in a
recession.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS
Vozworth
(Tough break on Oregon last night, I watched the game at the “famous” Dew Drop Inn while playing snooker.)
Don’t try to confuse the issue with the facts. Everything is contained, we are all doing fine, there is no recession, business will expand, and the GDP will grow next year at 1.9% (in US dollars, against the currency basket it will drop but who cares).
GDP: Government Defined Propaganda growth continues at a blistering pace.
My jaded view wont be ironicalized.
PNW salvation lies at the feet of the great migration north.
Using the shadow government stats for CPI, we have had negative GDP growth since 2005. Using the basket of currencies it has been even more negative. Using gold as a measure even more so.
For most people it isn’t a recession until they know people who cannot find work and its not a depression until they are personally out of work.
NOBODY I know, except my old yard care guy, has been affected yet. So, at least in my little world, there is no recession… but I know that it will come sooner or later.
My thoughts on Mr. Williams most excellent site (internally I agree with him).
Despite what Mr. Williams calculates, the only data that matters for comparison is what the government reports. Internalize Mr. Williams data for one’s own uses, but when evaluating multiple scenarios (Unemployment vs CPI vs GDP etc.), use the government’s numbers. The worlds’ analysts and economists are using the government’s numbers. Success is evaluating the governments numbers coming to a different conclusion and being able to act on that conclusion.
For example: the government reported last month’s CPI as 0.3%; the actual number was 0.34%. If the actual number had been 0.36%, CPI would have been reported at 0.4%. Calculate on the 0.36%. Government numbers are not correct, but they are consistent.
Hoz, that’s true if you’re trying to predict the behaviors of business and government leaders. But people don’t care about the birth/death model employment figures, they care about whether they have a job. They don’t care about CPI, they care about whether they can pay off their bills EVERY MONTH. For that depend on actual consumer behavior (and not “consumer sentiment”) , you SHOULDN’T pay attention to the “government” numbers. There are probably ways for smart people to make money based upon the differences between the two. But beware, because the market doesn’t reward people who are smarter than everyone else. It rewards those who are exactly as smart as everyone else one day early.
“the market doesn’t reward people who are smarter than everyone else. It rewards those who are exactly as smart as everyone else one day early.”
The market rewards those with an exit plan. The smarter your plan is, the better the reward.
I still say that there will be no “recession” - by that, I mean that GPD, savings, debt, and everything else will be redefined as needed to hide the facts. If, in the end, we’re all waiting in soup lines, we’ll still have 100% employment, the 1 company left alive in the DOW (government owned) will be up 100% per day, inflation will be a perfect 0% so that way there is neither inflation or deflation, and so on. They just can’t let the truth get out… now, we’ll all know about it, but they’ll keep parroting away their silly stories for some time.
“… what supporting data leads you to believe that this will be the largest recession since the great depression?”
There have been trillions of dollars of in the form of loans generated during the past few years that will simply disappear. These loans supported much of our consumer based economy; they allowed people to buy things they could not normally afford to buy.
The absence of future loans of this nature as well as the destruction of many of the loans already made will severely dampen demand from our debt laden consumer economy and will thus cause a serious recession.
I know that people have repeatedly forecast the death of the U.S. consumer… And, the U.S. consumer has struggled on anyway.
However, I think this time really is the end.
For the last decade we’ve seen 1% wage growth 2-3% core adjusted inflation, higher if we include food and energy, much higher if we ignore the “quality adjustment”.
The result is that the middle-class consumer is now spending 10% more each moneth than he/she brings home. How? Debt. Credit card debt, MEW, auto loans, pay day loans, etc. As we get further in debt, more of our income goes to paying interest on the debt. This means more debt to pay interest on our debt, meaning more debt.
Add to that $4 a gallon gas going into winter with inflated heating oil and natural gas costs.
The only way out is wage inflation, but I don’t see how the government will be able to ignight wage inflation with everything outsourced.
Now, add on housing bust. Article in AZ yesterday was that R/E transactions ticked up in Oct from Sept… Yeah, up from 3000 to 3500. For a typical October we should be at 10,000 a month (30K for the 4th quarter). That is a lot of Realtors not getting a paycheck. A lot of title agents not getting paychecks. Appraisers not getting a paycheck. We already know the mortgage brokers aren’t getting paid.
Then there is the derivitives market. What are the numbers? $20 trillion in bets backed by $1 trillion in assets. The people winning those bets are claiming the wins as profits, but the losses are not being counted as losses. As those derivitives unwind, the losers will not be able to pay, and all the hedging the big boys did will be for naught as they won’t be able to collect.
Dropping interest rates devalues the dollar and helps exports. Exports are 12% of the economy. But, devaluing the dollar hurts consumers, 70% of the economy.
We have to drop rates to save the banks, but we can’t lower interest rates without ignighting price inflation and killing the consumer.
I see NO reason to think we will avoid a recession, and once the recession starts, the debt laiden consumers are TOAST, and our economy goes with them!
“…That is a lot of Realtors not getting a paycheck. A lot of title agents not getting paychecks. Appraisers not getting a paycheck. We already know the mortgage brokers aren’t getting paid.”
If they sell their Harley…how many Starmucks latte’s will that buy them…down the road.
Well alot of these people aren’t salaried, they’re self-unemployed.
Go to shadowstats.com
This website will help you understand that we have been in recession for over a year.
The government statistics overstate GDP and understate inflation; as compared to the way they used to be calculated.
I suppose you could come to the conclusion that the way they now calculate them is more accurate than the way they used to be; or you could come to the understanding that they have been manipulated to hide the truth (which is my interpretation).
When you subtract 10 percent inflation from the 2 percent GDP instead of 2 percent inflation, all of a sudden your GDP is minus 6 percent instead of plus 2 percent. I think that it is a lark that GDP includes government spending. Look deeper into the numbers and you will find that we are DOOMED.
Goldman Sees Subprime Cutting $2 Trillion in Lending
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) — The slump in global credit markets will force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, triggering the risk of a “substantial recession” in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
http://tinyurl.com/37m29e
Wow, Bloombergs headlines are just full of joy this morning.
Burn baby burn!
“… the risk of a ’substantial recession’ in the U.S. …”
******
No - really?!
For how many years has that been said here?
GS just upped the pressure on Heli-Ben to fire up the printer and jetcopter for December.
“…cut lending by $2 trillion ….”
This is about 20 % of the total mortgage market in the U.S. At an average home price of $333.333 this means that 6 Mio homes [= the annual RE sales volume] cannot be sold, because there is no lending !
Or 15% of the annual GDP !
For the folks in Dallas - have noticed the amount of banks that have sprung up like weeds in the north Dallas area? I honestly think there are more banks in the area than there are gas stations, and that’s saying something here in Texas. For instance, at the intersection of Frankford and the tollroad, there are THREE banks. I guess guess building banks is the next bubble.
Here in California, you often see gigantic banks built in the 1950’s-70’s, turned into clothing stores, swap meets, or many other businesses.
I know of one that turned into a pizza parlor, with a walk-in vault.
Couple years ago I went to a Berlin concert in an old bank in San Diego… 4th and B??? Something like that.
Banks have huge potential markets and low barriers to entry - welcome the competition - it’s a sign that existing banks are overcharging or not providing adequate service.
I live out in East County and three new banks have all been opened in the last two months within two blocks of each other. Two - Wells Fargo and a credit union - built new buildings. The third renovated a defunct Hollywood Video (which I really liked but never went to anymore because of Netflix.) We already had a couple nearby banks so three more seems excessive. Needless to say I feel no need to visit and give them money.
My wifes pre-marriage community credit union here between Dallas and Ft. Worth lied about wanting to become a bank for 2 years until they suddenly changed their minds and become a bank. And moved into a new branch office nearby with drive through. Their savings rate: 0.15%. (This was lower than the interest paid on _checking_ accounts at my (real) credit union.) Oh well, helping our “members” and building new buildings is expensive, I guess.
I’m sure the new owners wanted to get heavily into that lucrative mortgage lending. Wonder how that is working out for them.
“Their savings rate: 0.15%.”
Right now??? Ouch!
My GF’s mother is a realestate agent (makes most of her money from rentals she has owned for years) any way, she had not had a single signed contract for over a year. She got one yesterday. Here is the Deal: People looking to buy a Condo (hehe) they were selling in the 400-450K range in 2006. Condo was listed for 360ish. The couple made an offer of 290k and the sellers countered with 330K. The condo is actually quite nice and in a development on the water boat slip included…They are paying CASH. Word from her mother is that there have been only a handfull of sales in the complex (and it’s a very large one). The last comps were in the 400k range so this sale will lower that bar. Side note here is that she will not even touch a property unless the sellers are serious and understand that prices are lower and that the buyers have the money and sale is not dependent on financing. BTW her last sale before that……….was CASH.
What was the actual price agreed upon?
Funny you mention cash sales, the only ones I know of, personally, were just that…for 500k and 700k (FL and CA). Both relatives who lucked out.
i can see paying cash for a joint you love and plan to live in forever.. Ultimately, the total cost is about half that of financing? It takes some of the sting out of high prices.
LONDON (Reuters) - The impact of the U.S. mortgage market crisis on the underlying economy could be “dramatic” as leveraged investors may need to scale back lending by up to $2 trillion, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS.N).
In a report dated November 15, Goldman’s chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said a “back-of-the-envelope” estimate of credit losses on outstanding mortgages, based on past default experience, was around $400 billion
http://tinyurl.com/2mqj3h
Paulson; US will continue strong dollar policy (haha)
CAPE TOWN, South Africa: U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson expects more of the losses in the U.S. mortgage industry that have hit the dollar, but predicted a long-term recovery for the battered currency.
“We have very much a strong dollar policy; that’s in our nation’s interests,” he said in a South African radio interview, Dow Jones Newswires reported. “Our economy, like any other, has its ups and downs and its long-term strength will be reflected in our currency markets.”
http://tinyurl.com/2mdr6j
I’m all for a weak Paulson policy, can we have a weak Paulson policy?
Would have loved to hear the translations of that statement. A lot of coughing amongst the translators, I imagine.
they definitely have a strong policy, but it’s not about a strong dollar ^:)
So what is the conclusion? That he is lying, or that he is incapable of executing the policy he is telling everybody he is doing, and is therefore incompetent?
IMO, he is lying, but he is representing the gummint and that’s what they do best. Can’t imagine that the thirdest of the third-world reps present would believe it.
We have very much a strong dollar policy
The administration’s economic brain trust (ack) keeps repeating this like a mantra, over and over, as if it will magically come true after enough repetitions.
Screw sound policy, we just have to say the right things.
Sigh.
Maybe it’s somebody else’s dollar he’s talking about.
ever since i first heard this about a few days ago, it sounded more like a threat.. a weak dollar means american consumers stop consuming foreign goods..
the message is play ball or we’ll keep the dollar weak or maybe weaken it further..
Same strong dollar mantra.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071116/africa_us_business.html
“We have very much a strong dollar policy; that’s in our nation’s interests
Oh good I feel better now nevermind oil is back at 94 dollars a barrel
The days of being able to “talk up” the $ are long gone. No-one in this Administration has enough credibility anywhere in the world to achieve this.
They are all so pathetically oblivious to the awful damage they have done America.
“They are all so pathetically oblivious to the awful damage they have done America.”
Oh they aren’t oblivious to it, they just deny it and harp on how great things are. But you’re spot on about the lack of credibility. They’ve been caught in the act of deception and lying so many times that they have nothing to lean on anymore. It’s all blustering blame and guilt from them now. The unholy stinking alliance of govt., business and insider profiteering is enough to warrant prison time for these deceivers.
Jawboning hasn’t helped much, has it?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1
“They are all so pathetically oblivious to the awful damage they have done America”
So,… if “they” knew what “they” have wrought…that “they” would “care”…”be concerned”…”give a damn”…”teach the world to sing”
Bugs: “eh, I don’t think so.”
Prices rise on food here and….
“American beef exporters on Thursday lamented billions of U.S. dollars in losses from a restricted South Korean market and called on the two governments to rectify inspection standards.
In a hearing called by the International Trade Commission (ITC), the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said U.S. beef exports this year would have reached US$1.53 billion.”
Yonhap Korea
16 Nov
Korea has no problem buying beef from Argentina, it is US meat products do not meet Korea’s food safety standards.
I was listening to the ag news on my local AM station this morning, and some pundit was saying that this is because we can’t scan a beef patty package, and determine which cow it came from and from where. Apparently there is a lot of push back in the united states from this kind of tracking because of the cost. So if they are upset that countries won’t accept the beef from the U.S. It’s just the trade off for the increased cost of tracking. If they determine that the other countries business is that important then they will probably ramp up to the same technology standards that other countries are adhering to.
The problem with beef exports from the US is that there is cross contamination of ‘bone material” which no Asian country will accept.
The problem with pork exports to Asia, in the US, the feed is often infused with antibiotics and the same antibiotics are used in people in much of Asia. Asia does not need a pandemic from an antibiotic resistant bacteria.
These antibiotics have been shoveled by the bucketful into animal feed bins for decades. You or I can order it from any livestock supply firm, no rx needed. Add to that the amount indiscriminately prescribed by MDs for decades at the slightest patient sniffle arising from flu or common code (which as viruses are proof against antibiotics), where the MD blames the patient, and it is wonder that there are any bacterial strains still resistant to antibiotics.
Read the initial reports of the effects of penicillin- it really was a miracle drug then, with dramatic sudden results. The medical establishment wasted all that, despite its lofty words.
Are you suggesting that I shouldn’t eat people any more?
‘Cause I was leaning that way, anyhow. All the bother, and the leftovers get wasted.
Works for me. More beef in the US market might help to keep meat prices from inflating too wildly. Let them buy their beef from the Argies.
The big difference being that our cows tend to be juiced up on ‘roids, out on the feed lot range, while their south American counterparts are grass fed…
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Argies juice up their cows as well these days. Business is business.
Does anyone else find it troubling that a purveyor of overpriced caffeneited sugar water has become a major barometer of the U.S. economy?
Of course, the bad news at FNM and SBUX is naturally shrugged off by the titans of Wall Street. Like alcoholics, Wall Street bulls need little excuse to have another party.
Stocks Set to Open Higher
A Wall Street Journal Online NEWS ROUNDUP
Word Count: 568 | Companies Featured in This Article: Starbucks, Fannie Mae, Kohl’s, Autodesk
Stock futures climbed Friday, with Starbucks dropping after the coffee retailer scaled back its earnings outlook and Fannie Mae planning a question-and-answer session after a report raised concerns about the company’s accounting practices.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119521680411095691.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Actually if you’re bearish you like these gaps up.
Are you watching any retail? Hunting nordstroms (1.5B in debt) and maybe best buy on a bounce.
I”m done for the week and probably next week. I bought a little BIDU at 310 (lol), will hold that on a lark.
I got burned playing with that kind of fire.
I see the market pretty flat this morning at the open. Wouldn’t be surprised if it turns into a real down day. TXChick, what say you?
Depends on if the Monday lows break. If they don’t, probably a short term double bottom. I’m out of half my Jnauary puts at the close yesterday. Open minded as always (ha ha) but you know Thanksgiving week is clown playground.
Dumped the rest. lools to me like they’re going to rally this junk in the afternoon.
Has the PPT lost its heft?
http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/?symb=comp
How should one interpret these kind of frank remarks about future FFR cuts from Fed governors to the MSM?
1) Take them at face value?
2) Interpret them as a powder-drying exercise to ensure the electroshock therapy of the next FFR cut can spur a powerful rally on Wall Street?
Fed’s Kroszner Indicates Rate-Cut Chances Are Slim
By Brian Blackstone
Word Count: 574
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner on Friday sent perhaps the clearest signal yet that the Fed is not inclined to cut rates further even if the economy hits a “rough patch,” as he expects.
His remarks suggest officials won’t be spooked even if upcoming data erode significantly as the economy absorbs the dual hits from the recent credit crunch and housing slump.
“The current stance of monetary policy should help the economy get through the rough patch during the next year, with growth then likely to return to its longer-run sustainable rate,” Mr. Kroszner said in prepared remarks …
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119522097003695721.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
is he setting the market up for an even bigger relief rally with the next BB ratecut in a few weeks from now?
That is my theory number 2.
i think they realize the box they are in, china has to do something to cool their economy down.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/chinas-scorching-factory-investment-sparks/story.aspx?guid=%7B135017D9%2D0EC4%2D4FE4%2D974E%2DA3127265E04D%7D
fed freakout:
A day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced plans for greater “transparency” by the nation’s central bank, the stock market was socked late Thursday by fresh Fed-speak confusion.
In remarks to an audience in New Mexico, for which no text was made available, Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and a voting member of the Fed’s interest-rate policy committee, apparently stoked fears that contagion from the housing slump is reaching more broadly into the general economy than previously believed.
http://tinyurl.com/yt6993
FedSpeak glossary:
1) transparency = opacity
2) clarification = obfuscation
3) slowdown = recession
4) up = down
5) good = evil
debt = wealth
Foghorn Leghorn: “Dawg = chicken”… now go get’em boy!
7) frothy = catastrophe
Bernanke = double flusher
uk bubble:
Hilary Osborne Guardian Unlimited Friday November 16 2007
The housing market is set for a “significant slowdown” in 2008, with price growth expected to stall by this time next year, the UK’s biggest building society predicted today.
Nationwide has revised down to 0% the 3% prediction it made after the problems at Northern Rock emerged at the end of September.
It said annual price inflation, which is 9.7%, is expected to fall as a slower economy, stretched affordability, tighter credit conditions and lower demand for buy-to-let properties take their toll.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/nov/16/houseprices.property
They’re still at a much earlier stage in the cycle than parts of the US if they’re calling price growth stalling a “significant slowdown”.
that’s just how it is in Europe: prices have been going up for 10-20 years, often at double-digit rates for many years (depending on country/area). Even price growth stalling will probably cause serious problems. The Netherlands went into a short recession around 2000 just because average home price growth temporarily fell to the low single-digits; the OECD used that experience to warn about the risk for economies where economic growth and home equity gains are joined at the hip. Of course nobody listened, and even the OECD itself is now chanting the lower rates mantra to keep the nominal economy humming along.
interesting prediction for next year, knowing that UK homeprices went down last month … if they are predicting 0% for next year, I guess they are certain that more declines are in the cards.
I know the UK market very well, they are in a world of hurt. It is going to be brutal in the whole of the UK over the next couple of years. If you think prices got out of hand here in the US, the UK has you beat.
It is going to be a bloodbath in Jolly Old England.
But, remember, it’s different there. Lot’s of immigration and wealthy foreign buyers along with an acute shortage of buildable land mean it’s all sustainable……NOT!!!
RE: bank profits for the last decade
“We should have been suspicious from the get-go,” said Robert A. Barbera, the chief economist of ITG. “There was financial alchemy at work.”
Famous last words.
Alchemy meaning update:
Turning lead into the easily led.
“…The most important duty of the Federal Reserve is to preserve the health of the banking system. In the early 1990s, after the last big crisis, it engineered a steep yield curve for years, helping banks to recover. When the smoke clears, the Fed will try to do that again, even if it means significantly higher long-term interest rates.
Higher long-term rates are not what either debt-laden consumers or the depressed housing market really need, of course. But such trade-offs are what come when big risks are taken, and ignored, for too long.”
NYT
http://tinyurl.com/3y3lxt
Pensacola, FL
http://pensacola.craigslist.org/rfs/479874680.html
This realtor / owner posts this property about every other day on craigslist.
1. Property was severely flooded during hurricane Ivan in 2004.
2. According to property appraiser web-site, seller purchased property for $95,000 in 2006.
3. Other than the seller’s listing, I could not find any local information about a nearby planned gated waterfront development community with marina. I even called the seller and asked specific questions about this marina, but he couldn’t tell me any specifics, and tried to dodge my questions.. I strongly believe this gated develoment with marina is never going to happen, and the seller knows it.
I have an inkling now about why all U.S. taxpayers should take a keen interest in BB’s suggestion to the Senate last week that GSE-securitized loans up to $1m should be given a taxpayer-provided guarantee, against the backdrop of NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s investigation of GSEs’ possible involvement in an appraisal fraud scheme.
For illustration of the potential problem, suppose that a lending institution, which I will fictitiously refer to as Jefferson Mutual, makes a home loan of $1m on a home actually worth $500K. JeffMu’s appraiser, a subsidiary of Second USA, happens to realize the home is only worth $500K, but on a whim appraises it at $1m. The loan is then sold off to Fannie Mae for $1m, who processes it into a batch of RMBS sausage and sells it off to investers.
Flash forward to five years later, when the home owner defaults on his $1m of unrepayable mortgage debt. The home goes to REO and sells at auction for $500K, leaving a $500K insured loss for the U.S. taxpayer to cover.
WATCH OUT FOR YOUR WALLETS, AMERICA, AS D-RATIC SENATOR SCHUMER AND FRIENDS ARE PLANNING TO FLEECE YOU SUBJECT TO BB’S BLESSING.
Cuomo Hits Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac With Subpoeanas
The New York attorney general subpoenaed mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as he sought to expand his housing industry investigation by focusing on companies that package house loans and sell them to investors.
It was the second public step in Andrew M. Cuomo’s probe of fraudulent house appraisals, which he says rippled across the market as overvalued mortgage loans were bundled together and sold as debt.
“If the appraisal process is broken, the loans and investments on which they are based may not be worth what investors have been led to believe they’re worth,” said Eric Corngold, an economic justice deputy who is leading the investigation for Cuomo.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/washbizblog/2007/11/cuomo_hits_fannie_mae_freddie_1.html
“Flash forward to five years later, when the home owner defaults on his $1m of unrepayable mortgage debt. The home goes to REO and sells at auction for $500K, leaving a $500K insured loss for the U.S. taxpayer to cover.”
Mr. Bear…you’re being waaaaaaaay to charitable…5 years forward… that 500K house will be worth 190K… leaving the the (”actual value gap”) to the US TAXPAYER at…$810,000 per loan.
Bugs: “eh Daffy, how many times would 6″ long carrots go around the earth if we placed 9 trillion of them end to end?”
Daffy: “I’ll have to get Martin the Martian to calculate that one Bugsy.”
Did you guys convene in Encinitas last weekend? I showed up about 3pm and enjoyed a meal at Juanitas, but no bubble bloggers were in evidence (next time I will aim better for the appointed time!).
“an economic justice deputy”……..
Apparently prosecuting routine crimes is not enough anymore. One must seek a “just” economy. I wonder if they’ll need an actual crime to prosecute “economic justice”?
I’m not saying that, in this case, a crime was not committed. But somehow I sense that bad economic outcomes for some politically protected species of the public will get “prosecuted” one way or another.
Hey, how else do you build a political resume these days?
Why should the government back 1 million dollar loans in a real estate declining market with a recession looming . Making more bad loans or insuring the current bad loan paper in a down slide is not he answer ,(unless you get 30 to 40% down payment on these loans to protect against the risk of price declines ).
Also it’s foolhardy for the government to back loans with the excess supply of homes and foreclosures right now ,which means the bottom is yet to be reached for a long time .
IMHO, better to just let the losses take place on the current bad paper ,and than once the market has settled ,than the government can provide financing for homes that might be affordable and sustainable by that time .Say No to Government backed insured loans catching a falling knife .I ask , who is going to control the appraisal practice on this bail out program ? It’s a bail out scheme for the banks and a way of spreading out the loss .
For those interested in Federal Repos
Yesterday the Federal Reserve injected 47.25B into the system.
$20B was 1 day repo (loan has to be paid back today).
Today the fed only rolled $5.250B
Total Fed lending is down for the week by $1B from last week.
http://tinyurl.com/df5hm
Very interesting Hoz. Would you mind giving these numbers every now and then, much appreciated.
Reuters has a good article on the chronology of the credit crunch:
from page 8
“Nov 15 - Fed pumps $47.25 billion in temporary reserves into the banking system in its biggest combined daily injection of cash funds since shortly after the September, 11 2001 attacks. Wholesale money markets tighten everywhere as bank losses mount and amid year-end liquidity concerns.”
Does the MSM deliberately report rollovers as infusions? LOL
Reuters
http://tinyurl.com/2k2g6b
Something is odd in Vancouver, WA. The NWMLS has published its monthly results and the Vancouver MSM has not reported on the data.
Could it be that they do not want the public aware of the fact that sales are down and the median price has fallen?
Feds raid Liberty Dollar office and seize all gold, silver, and almost 2 tons of Ron Paul coins.
For those who don’t know the Liberty dollar is a free-market currency meant for use in “barter”. The US mint had previously declared their operation legal.
So if anyone has any questions about our governments attitude toward gold/silver money there you have it.
I assume they may have been holding that nearly 4,000 pounds of precious metal, for other folks?
Go talk to your Uncle, Sam about getting it back.
“For approximately six hours they took all the gold, all the silver, all the platinum, and almost two tons of Ron Paul Dollars that were just delivered last Friday. They also took all the files and computers and froze our bank accounts,” the letter said.”
Rule #1:
1. “It’s not nice to fool with… “Mother Nature”
‘So if anyone has any questions about our governments attitude toward gold/silver money there you have it. ‘
Gee, imagine if people starting paying cash in copper and/or nickel-zinc alloy legal tender for all their bartering……… The gold may be confiscatable and the operation of Liberty Dollar put on hold, but the bottom line is we thrive on credit plain and simple. I have a mind to just go to the bank and ask for a withdrawal of my $300 in pennies.
The spillover continues…
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) — Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in October as slowing sales prompted factories to make fewer automobiles and appliances.
Production at manufacturers, mines and utilities fell 0.5 percent, the most since January, after a 0.2 percent gain in September, the Federal Reserve said in Washington. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, decreased to 81.7 from 82.2.
The figures suggest the biggest housing slump in 16 years may be starting to spill over to other industries. A weaker dollar and stronger growth abroad are boosting demand from overseas, and may help avert an extended factory decline.
“It wasn’t a good month for manufacturing,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc, a New York forecasting firm. “The combination of the housing meltdown, consumers pulling back and a desire to keep inventories as lean as possible is overwhelming exports. The decline was pretty broad based.”
Who was it that asked why we think we’re going into a recession?
Article in AZ Republic today. Job growth in AZ WAYYYYY below projections. Retail added 1/3rd as many as expected in October. There was no ramp-up for back-to-shcool sales, and there is no sign of any ramp-up for holidays.
Only strong job growth was in government…. surprise… NOT!!! They wonder why almost every district voted down higher taxes for schools.
Stalled Condo Projects
Tarnish Trump’s Name
Buyers Lambaste Developer,
Whose Coffers Seem Secure
By ALEX FRANGOS
November 16, 2007; Page B1
Even the Trump name isn’t bigger than the calamitous condo market.
Donald Trump’s reputation as a real-estate developer could take a hit as some condominium projects emblazoned with his famous name run into trouble.
In recent years, Mr. Trump has lent his name, and in some cases his own money, to at least 20 projects in the U.S. and another half dozen abroad, including buildings in Dubai of the United Arab Emirates and Seoul, South Korea. While in some cities such projects are doing fine, others face slow sales, project delays and cancellations — and irate buyers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119517867398895020.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_marketplace
Donald Trump going bankrupt yet again? Yawn. Old news. The man is so incompetent he pays someone for that hair style. Trump has lost so much money in various real estate busts it is frightening. He has no problem borrowing money from friends and suppliers who trust them and completely screwing them over with a bk. You just knew that RE was dying when he started doing RE courses with the Learning Annex. This one may be bad for him though - dad can’t loan him money or die yet again so he can inherit a few more billion. Wonder how long his trophy wife would stay if he really did go broke?
As Kathy Griffin says “ALLEGEDLY!”
Bernanke put strike price is holding firm at DJIA = 13,100…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
This past Sunday, I did a bit of shopping at the Wild Oats store in central Tucson. Outside the store was a big sign greeting shoppers with this news: Wild Oats has eliminated its senior discount. Seniors will now have to pay the same “low” Wild Oats prices as the rest of us schlubs. (I put the word “low” in quotes because Wild Oats isn’t exactly a bargain store.)
Has anyone noticed similar announcements from other retailers?
“. . . Social Security, bus discounts, medical alert jewelry, Gold Bond Powder, pants all the way up to your armpits. And all those other senior perks. You ask me, old folks have it pretty sweet.”
Good for Wild Oats. I hope they start a trend. In fact prices for seniors (I’ll soon be one) should be more, because they waste suppliers’ time more - they make bigger demands, complain more, and fumble with their money.
Found this little tidbit in my Bank Invesment Daily email:
Cost of Debt: For the first time in more than 10 years, the
country’s largest banks (Citi, Wells, etc.) are trading at credit
spread levels above that of the average industrial corporation
(149bp vs. 134bp).
Someone mentioned the bonds the banks were throwing out had the option of deferring interest payments or paying in stock.
Tickets anyone?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071116/20071116005407.html?.v=1
Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-16 07:47:58
‘Our greenhouse is coming along nicely and soon, our arch-enemy from down under, will have to find better Elysian Fields to steal from, as it’s got a cement floor.
I speak of the thieving, down-right-no-good gopher.’
I’m glad you explained that, lad. I was a bit concerned that you might be crazy. Not the fun kind; the ‘appear on CNN in manacles’ kind.
But gophers, yes. They are indeed valid arch-enemies. Here it’s moles and assorted other wildlife. I live in the forest, and so do lots of deer as well. Raccoons! Arrrgh! Heaps!
I dimly recall the long ago days when I first looked out in my yard and saw a sweet little mommy and baby deer and was all excited. Nowadays I’m like Captain Fookin Ahab—a gold sovereign nailed to the center beam of my house, for the woman, or cat, who brings in a deer. ‘From hells heart I stab at thee!…’ And no, that’s not an excessive posture, why do you ask?
What I did for moles was, I dug up the whole damn garden—by myself, with a shovel– and laid in steel mesh and then replaced the dirt. I will not be thwarted. If I want tulips, then I am bloody well having tulips. And then I electrified my garden beds. This year my tomatoes grew in complete tranquility. I’m just sad I never did get to see the deer and raccoon enjoy their first tutorial in electricity. It would have done my heart good.
We did great with our tulips this past year, kinda got me thinking I had a green thumb, but not so much…
Our first attempts @ orchardry didn’t work out so well, because of deer and their love of citrus trees and bark, so we’re now fencing them out.
Go find another tree to eat, Bambi.
Ditto Christmas trees. A fir seedling to a deer is like whiskey to Gary Stewart (RIP).
Deer - we call those things hoof rats in Virginia and are about as enamored of ‘em as the Aussies are of ‘roos.
I have a feeling they don’t like you very much either.
Quite likely - I’ve never shot any but I’ve offed a few with vans and pickup trucks.
Tulips yum! My neighbor feeds the deer the most exquisite imported Dutch tulips. Deer love tulips.
I however am less generous. I plant daffodils. I agree, perhaps not as nice as tulips, but the deer won’t touch them.
Ben and Alan’s Inflation
Steve Forbes 11.26.07, 12:00 AM ET
http://members.forbes.com/global/2007/1126/015.html?partner=yahoomag
Dancing with Subpar
http://www.stockmania.com/index.php?showimage=94
Read an article about some money market funds being effected by the credit mess. Now that is scary!
Cost Of The Crunch? $2 Trillion, Says Goldman
http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/16/goldman-credit-fed-biz-wall-cx_lm_1116goldman.html?partner=yahootix
Ouch! Will some analyst have to move over to Ivy Zelman’s new firm for putting such a wallop of doom into print?
Countrywide investors can sell $4B of debt
Nation’s largest mortgage lender says investors of its $4 billion in senior notes can sell debt for cash or shares.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/16/news/companies/bc.apfn.countrywidefinan.ap/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
Dollar set for biggest weekly gain vs basket in month
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSN1356328520071116?sp=true
Fed officials signal rate cut unlikely
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071116/usa_fed.html?.v=1
so these a$$holes wait until oil goes to $100 a barrel to think about not lowering the interest rate anymore!?! how disapointing.
bond market signals fed not in charge.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/15/business/15lend.html?ex=1195794000&en=09648beb1e35f1a5&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS
Interesting ruling. This will slow foreclosures and draw out the pain as these institutions figure out how to get the paper into the right hands.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
By the way, I love the judge’s response to the bank’s attorney saying “but you don’t understand how it works.”
Kudlow on CNBC saying the countrys seen worse. I didn’t know he was economist during depression.
CNBC should fire the new Dan Dorfman.
Goldylocks Crudlow is nothing but a raving shill.
Breaking news in Orlando tonight — Channel 9 news just announced that Engle Homes (or its parent company) is considering filing for bankruptcy. Engle is a very large builder in Florida and has many projects here in central Florida. IMO, the quality of their homes is pretty decent, if you like mass builders. In our area, I would rank them next below Pulte. Apparently this will be a major blow to Winter Springs, which was planning on Engle to build thousands more homes, to be supported by the planned town center.
http://video.nbc4.com/player/?id=185237
Down and out in Md…