November 16, 2007

Price Reductions By The Truckload Are A Daily Feature

The Contra Costa Times reports from California. “Bay Area home sales had their worst October since 1988, with much of the blame placed on a drop in higher-priced loans. It was a record low for all three East Bay counties: Alameda, Contra Costa and Solano, said Andrew LePage, an analyst with Data Quick. DataQuick started collecting data in 1988.”

“‘The Bay Area relies heavily on jumbo loans more than any other part of the country,’ LePage said. ‘Unfortunately, we don’t know how much of this is buyers not liking the rate and waiting for it to slide back versus they just can’t get the loan.’”

“Ed Jeffry, a loan consultant in Walnut Creek, said the shift isn’t all about not being able to qualify for jumbo loans. ‘A lot of buyers are looking for the best deal they can get and get the least expensive home they can,’ he said.”

“Jeffry said the jumbo loan crisis hasn’t done much to stop entry-level or high-end buyers. ‘It’s hit the dead center, so that means in our counties, nobody is moving up,’ he said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Vacaville, in eastern Solano County, was long an affordable alternative for home buyers who didn’t mind a long commute to the inner Bay Area. But that market has changed substantially within months.”

“Larry St. John bought a home for more than $900,000 early this year in a new development on the city’s northwest side. This weekend, St. John said the builder - DeNova Homes - is planning an auction of more than a dozen similar homes, with starting bids about $300,000 less than what recent buyers paid.”

“‘This is huge, this is our biggest investment,’ said St. John. ‘I can understand a corporation taking losses to stay in business, but an individual taking a $300,000 hit is not something I have the capacity to do.’”

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,’ St. John added. ‘If you’re starting off from a position of negative $300,000, that takes more than a few years to rectify.’”

“The correction isn’t limited to far-flung suburbs. Last week, 44 properties were repossessed by lenders in Santa Clara County, according to Richard Calhoun, owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose. If that continues, Calhoun estimates half of all real estate transactions in Santa Clara County could soon be made up foreclosure sales.”

“‘If it gets to that point, lenders are going to start controlling the prices,’ Calhoun said. ‘Anyone who says that foreclosures aren’t going to impact the Santa Clara housing market is crazy.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “A persistent housing slump that has relentlessly driven down home prices has now wiped out at least three years of home equity gains across much of the Sacramento region, Dataquick reported Thursday.”

“‘I’ve got two sets of buyers looking at property in Lincoln, 2,943 square feet listed for $325,000,’ said real estate agent Viki Benbow. ‘It’s like $106 or $107 a square foot. Those houses three years ago were selling in the mid-$500,000s.’”

“Among buyers reaping a bonanza of falling prices was Joanne Higginbotham, who moved to Sacramento a year ago from Oregon. She closed last month on a two-bedroom, one-bath 1916 bungalow in Sacramento’s Curtis Park. She moves in next week.”

“‘The budget was a big factor. It was a bank-owned property,’ she said. ‘I got it for $90,000 less than the prior owner paid for it two years ago.’”

“October ended with 15,716 homes still on the market in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to TrendGraphix. The number does not include foreclosures that have taken place but aren’t yet on the market. In the first nine months of 2007, more than 6,500 homeowners have lost their residences to foreclosure in the eight-county region.”

“‘No one has seen this before,’ Lyon Real Estate’s Michael Lyon. told a gathering of area home builders earlier this month.” “DataQuick said 65 percent of homes that went into foreclosure between Aug. 1, 2006, and July 31 have not been sold yet.”

“Reports continue to come in about Sacramento-area home builders cutting back on overhead, mothballing projects and, now, selling land. One reason is that banks, with their growing numbers of repossessed homes, are becoming one of the builders’ fiercest competitors for buyers in this market.”

“When the struggling housing market is blamed for the drop in sales of Sacramento Kings tickets, you know this is serious. Home Front was amused to read in The Bee that the Kings’ Danette Leighton, VP of marketing and branding, says a decline in tickets sales is more about the region’s housing market than the poor win-loss record of last year’s team.”

“What next will subprime lending and the housing slump do? Will it make Christmas trees catch fire and children talk back to their parents?”

The Camarillo Acorn. “A slumping housing market continues to hurt Camarillo’s otherwise healthy economy, according to a recent report released by the University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project.”

“Economist Bill Watkins told the 150 attendees the nationwide decline in home sales is ‘hammering California’ and having an impact on Ventura County, as well as Camarillo.”

“In September 2005, 800 homes were sold in Ventura County. That number dropped to a little over 600 homes in 2006 and then dipped to 300 in 2007, the economist said.”

“Watkins said 30 homes in Camarillo were sold in September 2007, an 80 percent drop from the 150 homes sold during the same month last year. Camarillo median home prices dropped from $625,600 in 2006 to $555,000 this year. Median home values are expected to drop again in 2008 to about $525,000, according to the report.”

“‘The decline in real median home prices combined with an increase in average salary will help make Camarillo a more affordable place to live,’ Watkins said.”

The Tribune. “San Luis Obispo County home sales in October declined to their lowest level in nearly 20 years, a Dataquick reported. Sales last month dipped 20.6 percent from October 2006 with 212 homes sold.”

“‘Octobers over the past 20 years have averaged 407 sales (all homes combined), so that’s nearly double last month’s total,’ said Andrew LePage, a spokesman for the firm. ‘So, sales are very slow by your own standards.’”

“Jumbo loan sales have fallen 73 percent on a year-over-year basis, according to LePage. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop, he said.”

“‘Lots of buyers see an advantage in waiting—waiting in hopes that prices will erode further,’ LePage said.”

The Malibu Times. “The perception is that the market is horrible. In some ways, it is. The number of homes selling in Malibu is very low. This year will see the same paltry total as last year-only about 170 to 180 deals. The reality, contrarily, is that more high-priced Malibu beach homes and estates are selling than ever before. And, at much higher prices.”

“How about this for a headline: ‘MALIBU AVERAGE HOME SALE PRICE UP 20% IN 2007.’ But is it a fair representation of the whole market? Not at all. This is a market with such drastically mixed signals, it is unfair to use any one statistical measurement such as the one above.”

“Also true is that just about every listing below $3,050,000 languishes unsold and price reductions by the truckload are a daily feature of the market. Some home sellers feel they can’t give their house away. Market periods are expanding.”

“Yet, week after week, the list of sales in the MLS is a trickle; maybe two to three homes. Almost as many sell in private transactions.”

“At the low end, things are awful: In August 2005, no homes in Malibu were listed for under $1 million. Now there are many. Only seven homes have sold in Malibu for less than $1.5 million. That could sound like a good thing until you realize that 44 such homes have been listed. It has been practically impossible to find buyers under $1.5 million.”

“For $1.5 - $2.5 million listings, it is hardly less of a struggle. forty-seven such listings have sold all this year; about that many are on the market now. That equates to a 10 month inventory of homes available. Almost every single one of those listed for more than two months has seen at least one price reduction already. (In a further sign of a slowing market, only seven of those sales closed since Aug. 1).”

“For homeowners who can’t wait, however, it is a buyer’s market. Only the seller that offers the best price gets the precious buyer. A new reality of lower comparable sales will likely take hold in months to come. Future sellers will have to adjust their hopes accordingly.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “The Seven Oaks mansion of real estate agent David Crisp is set for public auction today on City Hall’s front steps, according to an automated sales hot line listing upcoming trustee’s sales.”

“Crisp borrowed $2 million against the property earlier this year. The house is now in default, with $1,846,897 owed, according to The Daily Report, a local publication that prints county legal notices. The starting bid for today’s 10 a.m. sale was not available, according to the sales hot line.”




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198 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2007-11-16 13:37:18

what’s it take to get into jail in this country?
“Crisp borrowed $2 million against the property earlier this year. The house is now in default, with $1,846,897 owed,

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-11-16 14:08:02

LOL.

$60 million plus between all these guys defaults. I am expecting a Federal indicement soon…

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-11-16 14:29:38

UPDATE:

Auction postoned - http://www.bakersfield.com/hourly_news/story/287332.html

The sale of David Crisp’s Seven Oaks mansion at public auction was delayed again on Friday.

The sale was moved back until Dec. 3 at the discretion of the trustee, according to the auctioneer running the public auction at City Hall.

Simi Valley-based ReconTrust Co., a subsidiary of Countrywide Financial Corp., is the trustee for Crisp’s home at 10509 New Quay Court, according to The Daily Report, a local publication that publishes legal notices.

The lavish 6,666-square-foot home was searched by FBI and IRS agents in September, along with 12 other properties related to the former Crisp & Cole Real Estate firm.

As of Thursday, 97 properties associated with the defunct real estate agency were in default, county records show. Crisp, his family members, his former partner, Carl Cole, and various employees and associates borrowed a total of nearly $60 million against the properties.

Of those, 55 have been foreclosed on.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 13:37:27

You’re freaking me out Ben!

An early Cali thread? ;)

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-11-16 14:13:46

it’s friday……..the dude needs a life…….so do we. Step away from the computer, grab a JT, and go get freaky. The bubble ain’t goin’ anywhere.

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 14:19:04

I don’t know how you could get much freakier than riding the Joshua tree.

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-11-16 14:31:02

A fact that won’t be lost on this chump:

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,’ St. John added. ‘If you’re starting off from a position of negative $300,000, that takes more than a few years to rectify.’”

This dude bought a 900K house in Vacaville, and I guess he expected to appreciate forever. Here’s your Joshua tree! Years to rectify? More like years of being rectumfied.

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Comment by SFer
2007-11-16 15:33:47

“If you’re starting off from a position of negative $300,000, that takes more than a few years to rectify.”

I’m still baffled by these people. What’s keeping you in that house? Even if the market did a 180 today and started appreciating at 3%/year, it would take this guy 14 years before he could break even on the place. And prices are still falling! Talk about being “priced in forever.”

 
Comment by Red Pill
2007-11-16 16:18:01

“What’s keeping you in that house?”

Poor bastard probably has a shred of integrity. You know, abiding by contracts, taking responsibility, you know, stuff people did in the past in this country.

 
 
Comment by Rich
2007-11-16 14:50:46

Just to let you know I have a Joshua tree in my backyard. Cat got stuck in it one time, it was a tough job to get him down.

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-11-16 15:48:01

I’d imagine being stuck in one is far better than having one stuck in you. Your cat had it easy.

 
 
Comment by cfoofmofo
2007-11-16 22:26:07

Rect’em, damm near killed ‘em

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Comment by Ben Jones
2007-11-16 14:28:07

It’s Friday, nearly desk clearing time.!

Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 14:38:23

OK. I lost a day this week. Of all the things I’ve lost, I miss my mind and time the most ;)

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 14:48:40

“What a terrible thing to have lost one’s mind. Or not to have a mind at all. How true that is.”
Dan Quayle

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Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 15:14:02

Isn’t the 2nd thing to go is eyesight..
um
what is the first thing to go?
I forget.
where are my glasses.

OT and can’t they make bras with more support?
aging joke

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Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 15:42:50

That’s the bes part of reading on line - I can increase the text size as the day goes on. It’s a B*tch to get old.

 
Comment by JP
2007-11-16 15:44:46

It’s a B*tch to get old.

The alternative sucks too.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 16:07:12

Yep - I wake up each day and say yippy!

 
Comment by BottomFisher
2007-11-16 20:53:11

Like Red Fox said…..’My get up and go dun gone up and left”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2007-11-16 13:51:28

The statement about homes in the Bay Area being supported by jumbo loans more than any other part of the country is an understatement. I’ve lived out here for 7 years, and frankly the housing situation makes the Bay Area more like it’s own country.

The Bay Areas was like a person on crack. Without jumbo loans, IO, ARM’s, and so forth, roughly 30-40% of the price of current homes is totally unsupported. I can’t think of anywhere else in the country where the effects of banks pulling these loans has been more dramatic. That was just a few short months ago too. I can tell you from what I’m seeing in the East Bay which is that anything for sale has basically been sitting there.

Sorry to sound harsh, but people in the BA are morons. I say this because the general attitude here is that ” we’re better than everywhere else and everyone in flyover land are rednecks.” The general opinion is that the prices are high because the area is so desirable and that everyone here is so smart.

So you would think that “smart” people would have been intelligent enough to use common sense and basic economic reasoning. So much for that…

Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-16 14:11:43

The whole country has a real estate bubble. No reason for median prices to go past 2-3x median income ANYWHERE. Yes, a lot of Bay Area incomes are high, but the median income is not THAT high. There is a whole lot of working class people here.

That said, the area has its attractiveness. I pay 2x the rent I paid in Porland (OR) for a similar SFR because I like the weather, diversity and job opportunities in high-tech here. Same job as in Portland pays 10-15% higher salary here but we do end up paying more in the overall scheme of things. I would NOT go live in Kansas even if I could take the job with me and my salary did not change.

But, yes, this area is no different. People lost their minds just like pretty much all of the country. Not much is different from 10 years ago, anywhere.

Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 14:32:07

I’d so move to Lawrence KS if the opportunity was there. I know we’ve beaten the topic to death but seriously, CA ain’t all that.

Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-16 14:57:17

I respect that. To each his own.

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Comment by Malibucreek
2007-11-16 15:01:12

Eh, for me, CA is home. Born here. Moved around the country, but always felt most comfortable here. So, I’ll stay.

Renting, of course. ;-)

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Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-11-16 15:48:01

but seriously, CA ain’t all that.

You can say that 2 times

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-11-16 15:54:34

CA is all that if you could just cull out the worthless humanity that call it home. Up in the Sierra’s, every so often a lake becomes infested with an unwanted predatory fish. Solution? Poison the whole lake and start anew. That’s what it would take to get me to move back.

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Comment by Anthony
2007-11-16 16:46:22

Lawrence, KS has too many snobs. The whole town, while nice, is built around jobs in Topeka and KC. Both Topeka and KC are cheaper. 160K for a nice, established neighborhood in Topeka filled with professionals is almost too tempting to forego.

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Comment by KirkH
2007-11-16 21:08:15

The USSR collapsed because a few very smart people got together and decided they knew how to better set the price of shoes and groceries than the lowly cobbler and grocer.

We have a lot of very smart people living here.

 
Comment by KirkH
2007-11-16 21:10:08

Ooops, replied to the wrong comment, I’m clearly not one of those smart Californians.

 
 
Comment by BuyerWillEPB
2007-11-16 18:19:36

I’m trying to get a transfer to Wichita, KS. A lot of Aero work there. Anyone here from Cessna, Spirit, Bombadier, Boeing, Beechcraft, Raytheon? Put in a good word for me. I’m ready to move there asap.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2007-11-16 14:59:42

Using the Kansas example is kind of an extreme example though. Yes- Kansas gets extremely cold in some places and is utterly flat for vast expanses, but what about places like Austin TX, Nashville, TN, Atlanta, GA, and so on? Some of these places also have a fair amount of diversity,decent job and even growing tech industries, good pay, and weather that isn’t that bad.

Given the opportunity, I’d choose Nashville or Austin over the BA any day. Then again, I find that most people who live in SF or NY are people that can only live in SF or NY. The rest of the country simply doesn’t count.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2007-11-16 15:21:05

Lawrence, KS, is pretty nice — big university, good restaurants and bars, good music scene, cute coeds, low cost of living.

I’m partial to a number of Midwestern college towns. Lawrence is definitely one of them.

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Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 15:45:00

Isn’t Intel the only tech company in Portland? They have to sweeten the pot to get engineers to move there because no one wants to become a slave to the only company in town.

Comment by 85701 is overrated
2007-11-16 16:26:06

No.

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Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:30:11

What other companies are in Portland?

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-11-16 16:29:53

Isn’t HP across the river in Vancouver, WA?

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Comment by norcalray
2007-11-16 23:18:51

Yep.

 
 
Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-17 00:58:47

Isn’t Intel the only tech company in Portland? They have to sweeten the pot to get engineers to move there because no one wants to become a slave to the only company in town.

There are Intel suppliers like Novellus, Tokyo Electron, FEI, Novellus, etc., and a few others (Nike, Tektronix…) but Intel is the 800 lb gorilla. If Intel sneezes, PDX catches cold. Besides, a lot of the 2nd and 3rd tier tech companies have seriously shrunk their Portland operations.

Intel likes to hire PhDs fresh out of grad schools, preferably universities in the middle of nowhere (UIUC), and mold them in the mindset that there is no life outside Intel worth living. People who quit usually call it the best decision of their career.

BTW nothing against Portland - it is actually a very decent city and I liked it. Most places in the country don’t even have 1 of the 3 things I listed (diversity, great weather and hi-tech jobs) that are important to me.

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-11-16 22:32:35

All of you people that are so unhappy about living in California, oh please, please leave. I was born in San Francisco, raised on the Peninsula. I have experienced both snobs and nice decent hard working people. I have never thought this place is better than any other place. It is my home, it is where my friends and family live. I love where I live. It has it’s pluses and minus like any other place in the world.

Comment by rick
2007-11-17 23:40:02

This comment is itself pretty snobbish.

Yeah just leave if you complain, this is my home.

The answer is simple, I love the BA and it is my home too, so bite me while I complain. For one thing, I don’t want to live in your home aka SF, it has awful weather compare to further down south, and a lot of yuppies who think having beggers from all around the state coming over to stay is a good thing. I pity those living in SF unless they live near north beach or other nicer areas.

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Comment by potential buyer
2007-11-16 15:59:42

Not helped by todays Merc telling them that the median price went up. Story seems to have got buried now. I suspect its because us bay area folks bombard their comments section. Right Mo Money?

 
Comment by pismo clam
2007-11-16 20:20:00

‘Everyone here is so smart’. Then how can you keep electing idiots like Pelosi, Feinstein, Boxer, Brown, and Newsom? Oh, it’s that San Francisco style! Good luck with the Joshua Tree party tomorrow, wish I could come.

 
 
Comment by slb
2007-11-16 14:00:13

Lest anyone think only real estate types are in denial:

“[t]he King’s… VP of marketing… says a decline in ticket sales is more about the region’s housing market than the poor win-loss record of last years [basketball] team.”

AH HAH, now I suspect I know the reason the 49′ers are doing so poorly!

Comment by KirkH
2007-11-16 14:06:29

Of course you have to assume some of the players got suckered into buying some investment properties. Would be good to know which players for fantasy football reasons.

 
Comment by Rich
2007-11-16 14:53:12

Maybe that’s why the Raiders stink this year, BAD LOANS !

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:25:22

“What’s the Chicago Bears excuse?” said the Packer Fan roaringly.

Comment by Steve W
2007-11-16 20:01:42

We got hurt and injured and our O-Line became old and Rex went nutty and Cedric Benson is a dip.

Oh yeah, and the housing market tanked.

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Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 15:00:47

It couldn’t have anything to with the state economy maybe?

from the Bee:

‘The statewide unemployment rate held steady at 5.6 percent, the Employment Development Department reported Friday, although there were job losses in practically every major sector of the economy.’

“Rather sobering,” said Howard Roth, chief economist at the state Department of Finance. “It may be that housing’s problems are spilling over to other sectors of the economy.”

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 14:02:22

You know it’s bad when the banks and builders are competitors!
Not quite that way here in WI yet.

“Reports continue to come in about Sacramento-area home builders cutting back on overhead, mothballing projects and, now, selling land. One reason is that banks, with their growing numbers of repossessed homes, are becoming one of the builders’ fiercest competitors for buyers in this market.”

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 14:27:09

In 6 months they will be partners.

Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-16 14:35:29

The ones still alive, that is :)

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 14:58:07

I’m scratching my lost mind on that one Hoz. Care to help the lovely lady out?

Chuckles,
Leigh

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:08:43

When you owe the bank a few million, you are screwed. When you owe the bank a few Billion, you are partners with the bank.

aka: to avoid a company going into BK, banks will take equity in the company if they believe they can get something back.

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Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 16:50:41

Ah! Brain bubble moment.

Smiles,
Leigh

 
Comment by GPBlank
2007-11-16 17:33:48

aka: to avoid a company going into BK, banks will take equity in the company if they believe they can get something back.

Brings back memories. I remember cases of net gains on sales - has to be the right cyclical company that made stupid errors. Might fit for the right builders for banks with alot of patience.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Peter T
2007-11-16 14:04:21

> As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity’

You don’t. That time is gone, until the next cycle in 12(?) years.

 
Comment by Rich
2007-11-16 14:04:26

“‘Lots of buyers see an advantage in waiting—waiting in hopes that prices will erode further,’ LePage said.”

I give you the leader of the herd at the Dumb Ass Ranch.

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 15:17:13

Just looked at one of Many homes/condos that originally were just for rent, now competing with homes/condos that owners are desperately trying to rent..The prices are going down, as the owner sheepishly suggested,, the rental price at 1500 is not firm, what would WE like to pay..

500$ would that work? Lots of competition between these segments and also the builders/bankers.
And probably no one with superb credit going anywhere if they are smart.

Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 15:46:08

Hey D: Have you noticed how many rentals there are this year? Usually by now there’s very little. Even the old usual apartments and condos have vacancies.

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 18:29:04

Tons of properties in paper and on Craigs list.
Usually this time of year the rentals are all scooped up by the ’snowbirds’ and LA types for weekends.
NOPE, not this yr. Lots and lots of rentals.
And ads on craigslist for good houses that you can move into and become ‘owners’???

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Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:00:46

DD, what area are you talking about? The LePage quote was about the East SF Bay. No “snowbird” in his right mind goes to the east bay for the winter. It’s too cold and dreary. Us snowbirds go to So Cal or Central Coast; or PHX or FL or Mexico!

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 22:17:00

Sorry AZ: We are both Coachella Valley residents and were shorthanding about local market.

 
 
 
 
Comment by dude
2007-11-16 18:16:59

This argument that tries to make one believe that buyers are smart and waiting for prices to further decline is just another fallacy by the realtors, et al.

The number of qualified buyer actually smart enough to wait this out can be easily seen on this very blog.

The rest of potential buyers, oh yes, they already bought!

I’d say we’re looking at at least 5 years before the potential buyer pool is re-energized.

 
 
Comment by safe_as_apartments
2007-11-16 14:05:17

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,’ St. John added. ‘If you’re starting off from a position of negative $300,000, that takes more than a few years to rectify.’”

More than a few years, methinks

Comment by kpom
2007-11-16 14:13:02

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,”

WAAAAAHHH!!!!! They turned off the ATM!!!!! WAAAAAAHHH!!!

Comment by Evil Capitalist
2007-11-17 15:43:49

It is not ATM if you need to put the money back. It is ABM - Automated Borrowing Machine

 
 
Comment by laonlooker
2007-11-16 14:55:46

I have an admission to make. Even through all the negative housing news, my wife still is not completely convinced and STILL wants to buy a house. I have been holding her off since 2005 (can you imagine if we’d bought then?). Even though she understands that prices are falling, and it makes sense to wait, she still somewhat regrets not having bought a house. Anyway, as the listings well below previous prices continue to pile up, I asked her today whether she was glad that we did not buy. Still did not actually say yes.

My wife says, the people that are losing their homes are not smart; that would not have happened to us. Those people aren’t smart alright- and it shows becuase they bought those homes in the first place.

So in an effort to get my wife to understand, I asked her, even if we still could afford a house that we might have bought in 2005, would you be happy to know that it is worth 100k less right now compared to what we paid? And that that number is only going to increase? And that had you waited, you could have bought a house for much less.

After thinking for a while, she I guess you’re right. Like when I buy something at the store, I somtimes go back for a price adjustment. Bingo! I told her, that is exactly what some people are trying to do. Only, it isn’t for ten dollars, it is for 100k. She finnaly got it.

All that said, my wife is not dumb. She just really really really wants a house. We have two toddlers and have never owned a home due to both us working hard to get our education.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 15:02:46

Give her to me, I’ll lock her in the closet with my hubby, and I’ll let them out once a week for sunshine!

Smiles,
Leigh

Comment by laonlooker
2007-11-16 15:11:11

Can we lock them in separate closets? ;)

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Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 15:36:37

Sure, I have…er…three, in case anyone else out there needs a mate locked up!

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:15:44

Large dark closet, ;>) ?

 
 
 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 15:09:28

They’re babies, not time bombs! The whole bio-clock overrunning common sense thing just makes me nuts. She can wait another couple of years to shop for school district.

Try this: Explain to her that the components of the school will change as this economic gas cloud rolls out and wouldn’t it be best to wait and really make a truly informed and correct choice for the little ones by delaying a year or two?

**shudders** I think I need to take a bath now.

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 15:20:27

OOOOH Gwynster that was a good idea..wait to see Where the good schools will be in 2 yrs.
Boy you know your stuff!
LOL

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-11-16 16:02:30

Try this: birth control…..permanently. The propagation of the human race is way overrated.

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Comment by Starve_the _agents
2007-11-16 16:51:40

Yep. Eventually you’ll run out of Joshua trees…

…or do you re-use them? ;)

 
 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2007-11-16 15:32:39

She should see all the families living around us who also have kids, who rent, go to the local public school, and are doing just fine. I imagine she’s thinking that house= good for the kids. I’d argue to say that since you aren’t buying, why not consider moving out of the state? CA is kind a crappy place to raise a family and by the time school comes around, you’ll see what I mean. Perhaps ask her how the kids would be better off if you had less money to spend on them.

Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 15:49:31

How about all those crazies that bought houses they had to have for the kids and and now barely see their kids because they have such long commutes? Better for the kids to rent close to work or live within one income. A house is not the main means of raising healthy (mentally & physically) kids.

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Comment by laonlooker
2007-11-16 16:13:49

Tell me about it. A friend of mine recently bought a house in Murrieta, and he works near LAX. The commute is over 2 hours opne way so he stays at his mother’s house two or three times a week. I asked my wife, how that is THAT a good thing? My wife still hesitated. Oh well, no worries from my end. Ultimately, we will buy when BOTH of us are ready. My wife has many other redeeming qualities so I am not too concerned.

 
Comment by AnnScott
2007-11-16 21:12:44

Send her to visist me. Even my bankers ask my opinion about the economy and the markets. Took me 2 hours to get out of the convenience store last night (only one in 20+ miles) because of locals asking me for more explaination about the things onTV about the falling housing market and whaat should they do - keep their house, add on, wait to buy there first hous and how long…..

Seriously rent a nicehouse and commit to the ease for 2-3 years (and you’ll get a better deal.)

Explain to her if you buy that house in the net year, the odds are over the top that it will drop in value. Then what happens if a great job comes up and it means moving? Can’t sell it for what you paid and the chances are you will not only NOT make money to walk away with but that you will have to spend money to make up the difference between what you owe and what it will sell for at the time.

 
 
 
Comment by jag
2007-11-16 15:41:06

Wait till she hears one, really sad, story about someone she knows who gets blown up in this debacle.

She’ll never question your judgement about housing again.

 
Comment by Tim
2007-11-16 16:09:59

With kids, rather than getting locked into a depreciating asset, isn’t it better to save for college tuition and such. If she wont stop looking for your sake, she should do it for the kids sake. Her desire for the American Dream (as sold by those who have a financial interest) should not allow her to make decisions that would be a financial disaster for her entire family. It shouldnt all be about her.

 
Comment by athena
2007-11-16 18:10:54

you would think with two toddlers and the real expense of children she would appreciate having money in the bank as opposed to being in debt to the bank for the rest of her life, for a house that is worth half of what she owes.

It is not smart to really really really want something if it saps you of the ability to do basic math.

Comment by Natalie
2007-11-16 18:27:35

Right on sister. She needs to focus on the kids for now, and focus on her wants later. The fact of the matter is that she just thinks that what she wants. Taking care of kids is stressful enough without having to worry about an upside down mortgage.

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Comment by dude
2007-11-16 18:20:16

(in my best Arkansas drawl)

I feel your pain.

Wifey currently has the deadline set for thanksgiving ‘08.

Comment by Natalie
2007-11-16 21:22:37

That gives you at least another 10% discount. I feel that will only be the middle point, however. Good luck.

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Comment by dude
2007-11-16 22:15:32

You are assuming I must stay married to her.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-16 14:12:55

“For homeowners who can’t wait, however, it is a buyer’s market. Only the seller that offers the best price gets the precious buyer. A new reality of lower comparable sales will likely take hold in months to come. Future sellers will have to adjust their hopes accordingly.”

mission acCOMPlished…

 
Comment by Hondje
2007-11-16 14:14:17

OT, but since TxChick is headin’ down to Austin this week, thought you’d be a natural for this gig:

Texas Folklore Storyteller

Kelly Services has partnered with the *Lower Colorado River Authority to recruit for a Texas Folklore Storyteller. Only applicants that contact Kelly Services directly will be considered for this position.

Start Date: October 2007
Assignment Length: Indefinite
Pay Rate: $12 - $15 per hour/based on experience & education
Location: Cedar Creek, Texas

Job Duties: Responsible for delivering entertaining, historically based, Texas folklore to people of all ages.

Job Requirements: Must be enthusiastic, energetic and have a love for performing and working in costume. Educational background or experience in Theater is required. Must be willing to work on an “as-needed” basis, including weekends and holidays.

http://tinyurl.com/2u58ko

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 14:17:34

Well, considering I was born in NYC, I don’t think they’d want me ;)

Plus they wouldn’t like the stories I’d tell of TX folklore - like the I-30 Corridor S&L Scandal.

Comment by Hondje
2007-11-16 14:30:11

“Plus they wouldn’t like the stories I’d tell of TX folklore - like the I-30 Corridor S&L Scandal”

Grrrr….we’re not gonna let you get away with teasing us with these S&L Scandal folktales….please do dish the details…!

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 14:41:03

http://www.dallasobserver.com/1994-11-24/news/crime-pays/

How about an illiterate house painter who became a condo magnate?

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Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-11-16 15:59:09

That was a nice trip down memory lane to when $10 million was a lot of money. Now, anything under $3 billion is good news.

 
 
 
 
Comment by cascading cross defaults
2007-11-16 23:30:19

My wife is completely on board with me. We sold all of our properties and love renting at the end of a cul de sac with great schools. Yearly rent is one 23rd of fictitous peak home value. You guys are making me really appreciate my wife. Wish I hadn’t been so mean to her tonight. Oh well.

Matt R.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 14:16:15

Crispy, I hope you get a photo of the auction for the HBB photo gallery. That has to be a sweet moment for you.

I hope the little greaseball is living in his car.

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-11-16 14:21:32

LOL.

The media was out there today, hopefully we can lift one for the photo section, for posterity sake.

Unfortunately, we are now seeing 225-250 NOD”s per week in our town, it is getting ugly. I hope the pace slows, otherwise we are really screwed here.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-11-16 14:49:51

Back to the future:

Bakersfried,
Oil, carrots, pesticide dust and foreclosed houses… without door knobs or appliances. :-)

 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 14:58:07

What I want are pictures of him drunk, rolling on the floor in Barclay’s. Don’t you brits carry cameras? >; 0

 
Comment by dude
2007-11-16 18:32:30

“I hope the pace slows, otherwise we are really screwed here.”

I see no indication of slacking pace. Good luck with that.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 14:48:22

About a third of the way down from the article is a photo of Seven Oaks…scroll further to see his mug ;)

http://www.bakersfield.com/hourly_news/story/234616.html

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-11-16 15:00:05

“…At 5208 Glacier Canyon Court, a woman who identified herself as a visitor to the home confirmed that agents had been there Wednesday morning. She said that Cole rents out the home to renters.”

Maybe…landlord Crispy will be collecting his “rent payments”…with his PB&J…behind bars. ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-16 14:20:53

The Bakersfield Californian. “The Seven Oaks mansion of real estate agent David Crisp is set for public auction today on City Hall’s front steps, according to an automated sales hot line listing upcoming trustee’s sales.”

7 out, line away.

 
Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-16 14:22:26

“Larry St. John bought a home for more than $900,000 early this year in a new development on the city’s northwest side. This weekend, St. John said the builder - DeNova Homes - is planning an auction of more than a dozen similar homes, with starting bids about $300,000 less than what recent buyers paid.”

I guess Larry is the poster boy for California FBs. $300K haircut in less than a year. That’s about $1K/day.

 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 14:22:26

Unfortunately, we don’t know how much of this is buyers not liking the rate price and waiting for it to slide back versus they just can’t get the loan.

 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 14:25:50

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity”

No you don’t.

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 15:29:01

Ex mother-in-law bought her house in the late 50’s/ 20k and never ever did a thing to it but upkeep.

 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-11-16 14:27:09

“Larry St. John bought a home for more than $900,000 early this year in a new development on the city’s northwest side. This weekend, St. John said the builder - DeNova Homes - is planning an auction of more than a dozen similar homes, with starting bids about $300,000 less than what recent buyers paid.”

“‘This is huge, this is our biggest investment,’ said St. John. ‘I can understand a corporation taking losses to stay in business, but an individual taking a $300,000 hit is not something I have the capacity to do.’”

Dear Larry St. John,

If you can afford to buy a $900,000 overpriced POS, you CAN EASILY afford to take a $300,000 hit in the shorts.

Love & Hugs, Suzanne

The RE Equity Vapor Fairy :)

Comment by watcher
2007-11-16 14:50:04

Think of all the fun he could have had blowing 300 k, but he bought a house.

Comment by norcalray
2007-11-16 23:48:19

That buys a lot of fun and toys!!!

 
Comment by Evil Capitalist
2007-11-17 15:50:06

I wonder if prices on escorts are going down…

 
 
Comment by jag
2007-11-16 15:44:44

Good point mikey

 
Comment by climber
2007-11-16 16:11:13

“this is our biggest investment”

Investments can go UP or DOWN. I hope you can deduct it.

Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:08:58

I hope you can’t. For years the deal has been, losses on primary residence were not deductible. We all count on that fact in our continuing decision not to buy. FBs have no right to the windfall represented by the possibility that they could deduct their losses on primary residence.

az_lender in a tough mood today!

 
 
Comment by pismo clam
2007-11-16 20:49:09

Try Nina after Suzanne blows you off. Maybe she can bring her buddies up from Palm Springs and do a flip for you! Oh, she already turned you down? Casey’s next, all right. And don’t forget, stage it with squirrels. hehehehehehe

 
 
Comment by qt
2007-11-16 14:35:19

I know this is off topic but there is an interesting article at money.cnn.com about the wall street bonuses may be cut by 50% this year. They gave one example where instead of a 2 million dollars bonus, a mortgage investment broker/saleman only gets 1 million. (I am so SAD for them)

Question: What values do they add to the economy to justify even a million bonus? I believe people should not borrow money to buy houses or cars. We are making the banks richer!!! Some may ask how do I afford a $800K house then? The answer is simple: That house will not be worth that $800K. Wasn’t there a time in history where people just buy a house and the price was reasonable? No stupid lender needed. Now, with all the loans people get, that only increase the prices. Not to mention all these dumbas$ jobs to rip people off. We need to get back to saving money and living within our budgets. Ranting done!

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 14:39:12

I’d like to see them justify paying bonuses to their shareholders when they’re all down 20% and more for the year.

Comment by Remain Calm. All is Well
2007-11-16 14:54:40

With every passing day I’m agreeing more & more with Jas Jain when he calls stocks “Scams” - Wall Street is a heavily rigged game, a legalized conduit of stealing from widows and orphans.

Shareholders are the sheep Wall Streets loves to fleece. I think it was in Frank Partnoy’s book, a trader saying “Stocks are for a55holes. Cash is king.”

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 15:12:43

It is heavily rigged. That’s why you’re up a creek without a paddle if you don’t use charts or have inside information.

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Comment by Desertdweller
 
Comment by newbie
2007-11-16 15:31:36

Hey txchick,
Luv your posts. Could you please give a newbie like me some tips on how to learn about all the charting etc. Just references. Did you work somewhere to learn all this? Training?

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-11-16 15:45:02

Fantastic link…thank you.

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 15:48:53

Tx,

I do not think it is heavily rigged or even rigged at all. I think most people are too friggin lazy to do a modicum of research before they puts their moneys down. Any type of research whether charts or fundamentals will give an investor an edge. Most buyers of stocks spend more time researching the next car they are going to buy than their 401K - “my company knows whats best”. Yes , there is insider trading and scams and thefts, but that happens in any industry. I do not know where the stock market will be next year, but in 30 years I know it will be higher than today. (I used to say 10 years, but I am not sure of that at this time.) I am always amazed at the sheer amount of information that companies release. This information is easily digestible and accessible. At times, I despair that I may be the only person reading corporate SEC filings. But all the mopes do is read in the MSM that, “Warren Buffett bought Podunk Industries stock, and then go on line to buy 10,000 shares.” Never bothering to look at any of the reams of available information, or the charts or even Mr. Buffett’s SEC filing with footnotes, they lose their moneys. Then they scream that the market is rigged. In the meantime, these same mopes are online looking at Edmunds to compare every type of depreciating asset to buy with their imagined new wealth.

 
Comment by sf jack
2007-11-16 16:27:55

Fantastic in what way?

Fantastic that Henry Blodget is a crook?

That way?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Blodget

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:39:23

I do not agree that Wall Street is rigged. (My post was lost in cyberspace.)

Everybody have a great weekend, Jusque Lunes.
and remember

“Bank failures are caused by depositors who don’t deposit enough money to cover losses due to mismanagement.”
Dan Quayle

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 16:57:37

http://www.hardrightedge.com lots of good free info on there

 
Comment by tarred and feathered
2007-11-16 23:56:53

Dan Quayle can play scarecrow in when they do a remake of The Wizard of Oz.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 15:28:18

GS bonus pool is up 10% over last year.

I am in favor of the bonuses, just not the way they are currently structured. Lambaste me, but please read my reasons. In the past the salary was low ($6K/yr), bonuses were high ($200K/yr - based on your production), if you produced huge profits, the income was huge (8 figures/yr). This is 30 yrs ago. Thus the start of the bonus pool. Unfortunately, the profit mopes from Wall Street morphed into incompetent MBA’s that could not produce. To keep an Ivy league MBA on the staff, (looks better on Corporate resumes than a high school drop out) salaries were raised. The bonus pools were never changed. What was once a great reward system developed into a job retention that rivals the Federal Government in incompetence. The firms are to blame, but so are the shareholders and funds that continue to vote for the incompetent Boards of Directors of these institutions.

Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 15:58:07

What galls me is the proportion of bonuses the top gets and staff barely gets anything. Everywhere I’ve ever worked, staff works their butts off for little reward, middle management does little and the top just rakes in all the rewards. Nowadays, I would think top bonuses would go to IT folks. Let the traders try to do their jobs without working technology. No - I don’t work IT, I just know that all jobs are now dependent on it.

Comment by potential buyer
2007-11-16 16:13:04

Anyone who has ever worked in a corporation alongside IT knows that their customer service is abysmal!

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Comment by Otis Wildflower
2007-11-17 06:07:23

Oh please, have you ever had to go rooting around under some trader’s desk to plug in some cable they kicked out, while they’re screaming obscenities and you’re trying not to gag on all the fermented dropped Yip’s remains and nasty piles of sneakers?

And yeah, when traders get the $$$ and all you get for xmas is a Wonka bar, you might be forgiven for having a bit of resentment.. And Wall St. wonders why IT folks burn out so quick..

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:24:35

Oh, IT is in India now, hadn’t you heard?

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Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 16:41:39

I’ve been lucky - everywhere I’ve worked (big and small), we’ve had on site IT folks and they’ve been terrific. I don’t know how you run a business without that feature. Even when they log in to fix from off site, they’ve been saviors.

 
 
Comment by dude
2007-11-16 18:38:08

I don’t have an IT department and I trade just fine.

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Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-11-16 16:17:17

Wasn’t there a time in history where people just buy a house and the price was reasonable? No stupid lender needed. Now, with all the loans people get, that only increase the prices.

We can say the same with health care. Create an insurance program so everyone can pool their monies to pay $30,000 for a broken leg that should cost under $500. I mean it’s not like it takes the doctor 6 months 8 hour days to fix the dang thing right? Or how about automobile body shops? You think if were not for insurance companies they would be giving estimates of $3200 to replace the rear quarter panel of a 98 Ford Taurus? If I ran for president I’d create an all barter society. I’ll trade you a Clark Bar for your vote.

Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:15:30

You are so right. The main effect of abolishing Medicare and Medicaid and doing away with all other health insurance would be, that we could once again afford to pay the actual cost of health care. Oops maybe one would also have to adopt the British practice of making plaintiffs pay defendants’ costs if the plaintiffs lose lawsuits.

 
 
 
Comment by SoBay
2007-11-16 14:40:54

As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,’ St. John added. ‘If you’re starting off from a position of negative $300,000, that takes more than a few years to rectify.’”

- If you are not from California, then you don’t understand the mental state of most Californians.
They feel ENTITLED TO WEALTH! If you are a SoCal illegal you feel entitled to full medical, bi-lingual teachers for your kids, blah blah blah.
Don’t blame us - the rest of the world basically follows Ca lead.

Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 15:16:19

I’m a CA native and I don’t feel entitled to dick all. I had that lesson beat into me during the last two, no, make that 3 CA recessions.

 
Comment by kThomas
2007-11-16 15:23:52

I’ve been back and forth across America. The only difference between California and everywhere else is this: there are more a$$holes there and the weather is much better than anywhere else. That state is huge, and there are so many wealthy people who live there…it really is mindboggling how much money is actually in that State. If California sneezes, everyone else catches a cold, unfortnately. They pay out in fed taxes much more than they take in, BTW, so go thank your Senator and Rep.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 16:01:50

You must know different illegals than I’ve come in contact with. The folks I’ve known are willing to work really hard and live below what most of us will and don’t feel entitled to anything beyond an opportunity to take care of their families. Do you actually know any illegals? As far as I’ve ever seen, the higher up the food chain, the more entitled the seem. Other than that, you know I nearly always agree with you Gwynster. I just have seen too many people that are automatically buying into the “blame the illegals” like they bought into “blame the welfare mothers.” I think it’s a devide and conquer scam perpetrated by the top.

 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:27:55

Hi SoBay:

Don’t you think that it’s mostly the people who move to CA from somewhere esle who feel so entitled? I think they think that they’re, like, biologically better than their old friends/family because “moved up” to a more competitive state. They always have to move to the most expensive parts of town (even though they can’t afford it), and send copious post cards and e-mails to everyone back home to make sure no one will forget how successfull they are.

Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:29:06

successful

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:21:55

That’s interesting, but I’ve recently concluded that housing on Calif’s central coast is less expensive than in the Phila burbs. NOT on a “per interior square foot” basis — but one must consider how much easier it is to enjoy being out on one’s deck etc if one is in Calif. Add that in to the per square foot equation. What I’m saying is, one might move to CA because one is LESS successful than one’s urban/suburban EC friends.

 
 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 16:47:28

SoBay: Illegals I’ve met are totally devoted to work and family and never seem entitled to anything except an opportunity to work hard and take care of those families. Have you actually ever met any illegals or talked to them? I think this is the same red herring as usual - blame the poor. Last decade it was all those welfare mothers, now it’s the illegals. I think it’s a divide and conquer scam perpetrated by the top to distract everyone from who the real bad guys are. IMHO the further up the food chain the more entitled and pompous the people are.

 
 
Comment by joe momma
2007-11-16 14:42:38

What this country really needs is more women at the top. It doesn’t matter where I look in this debacle. Men everywhere. Our insane president, Fed chairman, and practically every CEO involved in this.

This country needs Hillary. And I hope she appoints a lot more women too. I am sick and tired of these corrupt, ahole men screwing things up.

The gangster instinct is too strong in them.

Hillary in 2008!

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 14:57:17

“We have to do more than just elect a new President if we truly want to change this country.”
Dan Quayle

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 15:31:36

Potatoe Quayle?

 
 
Comment by BearCat
2007-11-16 15:10:56

Yeah, Hillary’s a great investor, taking $1K to $100K in cattle futures. Can she did that for all our 401K’s?

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 15:11:32

Oh, you’d like to swap corrupt for incompetent?

Comment by aladinsane
2007-11-16 15:30:39

We already have that 2 for 1 deal, @ 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

 
Comment by joe momma
2007-11-16 15:59:22

I have no idea why you would call Hillary or women in general incompetent. For starters, the Clinton’s ran possibly the most professional admin in the 20th century. No I am not talking about the BJ. I am talking about competence at every stage. You know, when FEMA was a model of efficiency? You do remember those days, right?

The men’s club from Chimp on down have been highly corrupt and highly incompetent. 9/11. New Orleans. Iraq. You name it.

You do remember these events, right?

Hillary in 2008! End the boys club now.

P.S. To the other post…Dan Quayle? You must be kidding. Have you read his quotes? He makes Chimp look educated!

Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:46:55

Yes it was the VP Dan Quayle that said this during the 92 election.

The only one of his statements that made sense.

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Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:33:18

If you disagree with Hillary’s viewpoint, then fine, but she is most certainly not any less competent than her rivals. She has the most relevant experience of them all.

Comment by ylekiot1
2007-11-16 18:28:45

Experience? What experience? She was a senator for a few years and never had to be elected before then. If experience is from failure after failure, then that might be true.

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Comment by dude
2007-11-16 18:42:52

Richardson was/is by far the most qualified Dem, and look where he got.

Further proof that politics isn’t about electing the best person for the job.

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Comment by Peter T
2007-11-16 15:33:26

Two years ago, I would have strongly disagreed with you - now I am not so sure anymore: Our county commissioners gave the local baseball team a nice present in form of a stadium, expected price tag is some hundred million dollars, paid for by an increase in the county sales tax. The vote in the commission was strictly along gender lines: four men in favor, three women against. Man, I wanted an all female commission at that moment.

 
Comment by Gwynster
2007-11-16 15:44:44

I’d love to see a female president. I’d love to see a Dem in the Whitehouse. I just don’t want her.

 
Comment by joesixpack
2007-11-16 16:04:08

(Joesixpack words of wisdom)

A persons integrity and dedication to the moral underpinnings of this nation have zilch to do with whether that person pees standing or sitting. (PS, I am not so sure Hillary sits)

 
Comment by LaRenter
2007-11-16 16:20:49

Ron Paul for real CHANGE!!! Not some corrupt POS!! She’s so FAKE I could barf!

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 17:01:34

I’ve come around to that myself. I’ll register to vote so I can keep my record intact of only voting for candidates named “Ron.”

Comment by are they crazy
2007-11-16 22:27:24

Just can’t get behind his stands on social issues. He’s a conservative Republican that is very anti choice and anti gay rights. Regardless of where one stands on those issues, I don’t like the idea that he’s small government on financials and war, but big government for the bedroom. Besides, being a Republican he is beholden to uphold their platform regardless of the rebel thoughts and image. I wonder why he didn’t run as an independent.

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Comment by txchick57
2007-11-17 05:13:46

No, he is not. Read his position papers. He is personally pro life and supports the Second Amendment but does not support the federal government having any role in those issues. They would be left to the states to decide.

 
 
 
Comment by GPBlank
2007-11-16 17:51:42

Coming around to that too. Some things I don’t like…but probably the best candidate in many years.

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:29:11

Me too. Oops I mean, me four. Went to a “Ron Paul meetup group” in PA on Wednesday night. Very interesting. The only downside is, too much email from meetup. Ron Paul’s best points for me are, get REALLY out of Iraq, end all foreign aid, end the IRS, secure the borders, and end the “war” on drugs.

Comment by txchick57
2007-11-17 05:15:21

the IRS thing alone is enough for me. I despise that agency.

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Comment by ronin
2007-11-17 07:39:03

Assigning superior attributes to a job title merely because of their sex is now OK?

 
 
Comment by Toth
2007-11-16 14:47:59

So first time poster, and total financial newbie, but I heard some interesting info on Bay Area commercial real estate.

This is from a reliable source working for a large commercial realty company. They told me in the third quarter, that grade A real estate saw vacancy rate increases across ALL bay area markets . This is from SF to SJ to the east bay. Every single one of them saw an increase. Apparently the company has NEVER seen this before, ever. At the same time commercial ownership pulled back drastically, and many many companies (major names) are dumping at least part of their leased property.

Maybe its just because I am new to a lot of this …. but … oh my God does this sound bad to me!

Comment by Chip
2007-11-16 15:26:15

Thanks for the report. I’m seeing the same here in central Florida, though it’s not unexpected.

 
Comment by JP
2007-11-16 15:53:20

Apparently the company has NEVER seen this before, ever.

This piece of info is dubious. Commercial property of all stripes went from low vacancy to high vacancy in the wake of the internet bubble throughout the bay area.

FYI: Near the peak
Palo Alto $12 per sq ft per month
Mt View $8
Milpitas $4

+ stock. It was truly an insane time.

Comment by JP
2007-11-16 15:54:34

Ug, It’s friday. Make that High to Low vacancy.

 
Comment by Toth
2007-11-16 15:59:42

No I understand that, I am just saying the company made it clear that this was every single market, and that they had never seen that happen before. I am not talking about magnitude here, but sheer pervasiveness. Perhaps its bogus, but according to my contact they sounded scared.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-11-16 16:09:35

softening in DC area too- trying to rent out some office space started at 22 - will take 18$ now……….

Comment by Evil Capitalist
2007-11-17 15:58:56

$18/sq was rent in International Gateway in Tysons in 2004.

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:36:46

Can you tell us what company you’re talking about? We like to try to verify information on this blog whenever possible.

 
 
Comment by Jimmy Jazz
2007-11-16 14:50:13

Larry St. Azzhat John has been busy giving interviews, he was featured in a thread Ben posted yesterday. Amusingly, the auction he is bitter about is occuring in the Vacaville Opera House, so I repeat my suggestion that Larry dress up and attend as Pagliacci the SAD CLOWN. Larry has a 2 year ARM that he will no doubt walk away from now while shrieking “I coulda been a contenda!”

 
 
Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 15:32:18

Hi All:

I might not get a chance to post tomorrow (Saturday), so I want to remind you that I booked a table for the Bay Area HBB party.

Chevy’s Fresh Mex
2907 El Camino Real
Redwood City, CA

6 PM

 
Comment by Fred
2007-11-16 15:35:55

For those who don’t speak spanish, Vacaville means “cow town”, and that’s basically what Vacaville is. It’s in the central valley mid-way between San Francisco and Sacramento. Calling it “bay area” is quite a stretch. There is certainly nothing very scenic about the area, unless you like flat ground, wide open spaces and lots of sunshine during the long, hot summers. Reminiscent of West Texas or one of the other plains states. Yes, it has the proximity to San Francisco just an hour away, but then most of North Central texas has proxmity to Dallas just an hour away. $900,000 is a LOT of money for a house in a cow-town.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-11-16 15:38:33

Larry, i have the world’s smallest violin playing for you and your $300K vapor equity that is vanished. BOOOHHHOOOO HHHOOOO. No home in Vacaville, or Vallejo, or anywhere near there should be worth $900K - for what I am sure is a standard tract
Mc$hoe$h!tbox.

 
Comment by laien
2007-11-16 15:38:51

In case it hasn’t been posted earlier (I didn’t see it mentioned…) Delta Homes has filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy

 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-11-16 15:51:16

“As a homeowner in the Bay Area, ‘every couple of years you have an opportunity to refinance and do some improvements and still have equity,’ St. John added.”

But mom…. Everyone is doing it.
Well son, if everyone was jumping off the Goldengate Bridge, would you?

St. John is mad because he jumped off the bridge, and now he’s about to hit the water.

It’s not fair, he said, someone needs to move the water. Its not my fault that I jumped off the bridge.

Comment by Desertdweller
2007-11-16 18:34:52

Hope he is as lucky as the Parachute guy whose chutes did not open and he survived…
housing? probably not so lucky.

 
 
Comment by catspit1
2007-11-16 15:55:42

anybody bored enough to find sales data for me for a house in contra costa county? me too dumb…

2350 Hilo Ct.
Mountain View 94040

Friend of friend is thinking of buying. I am just curious… Thank you in advance.

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2007-11-16 16:09:15

This was my best effort. I could not find any sales for a Hilo street.

http://www.paloaltoonline.com/real_estate/re_sales_search.php

 
Comment by potential buyer
2007-11-16 16:35:14

Last sale and tax info
Sold 09/15/1978: $150,000
2007 Property Tax: $3,028
All housing around it has zillow estimates of $1.2m - if you can ever believe Zillow. However, they do typically have comps. that have sold recently.

 
 
Comment by friar john
2007-11-16 16:08:04

A bit OT, but today I saw a commercial on CNBC for a local jeweler, Leo Hamel, here in san diego. This is a high end store, think Tiffany with a base price of $10K. Anyways, this commercial was solely devoted to those out there who might need to sell their jewelry for top dollar this holiday season. And of course, it would be private and confidential. I guess the bitter renters on this blog aren’t the only vultures circling out there. The carcass has many parts and Leo is looking for the ring finger. :)

Comment by Big V
2007-11-16 16:51:48

Hey Friar John:

I’ve been waiting for this to happen. Last year, all the jewelry stores were telling me that they wouldn’t buy any high-quality diamond under 1 carat. High-quality diamonds are typically only used for engagement rings (for some strange reason), and guys these days are embarrassed to present a solitaire under 1 carat. I thought to myself “oh, let’s see how long that lasts”. A high-quality 1 ct diamond costs about 10k on average, ranging from about 8k to 20k (depending on its stats). I’m like: How can it be that every guy out there is dropping about 10k on the rock alone?

Comment by friar john
2007-11-16 17:27:33

How can it be that every guy out there is dropping about 10k on the rock alone?

Okay, let’s all take a deep breath Big V and say together…”Financing” :)

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-11-16 16:59:15

I got a platinum and diamond Tiffany ring a month ago from a seller who was selling to try and save the McMansion. I got it at 45% of retail.

 
Comment by gab
2007-11-16 16:59:36

“The carcass has many parts and Leo is looking for the ring finger.”

Friar John, I don’t know if you made that up or it’s an old saying that I’ve never heard, but it’s damn funny and very appropriate.

Comment by friar john
2007-11-16 17:35:55

The creative juices are flowing…like a bare-foot fungus laden grape smasher making the two buck chuck at Trader Joe’s…like a FBs liver producing bile, the sweet nectar of everyone who reads this blog. :)

 
 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-11-16 16:25:22

Uh-oh! It appears Portland ISN’T different AFTER ALL! He tried giving a trip to Hawaii with the LEASE of a new home… now he’s going to auction them off.

http://www.publicredcauction.com/

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-11-16 16:27:41

Neil, Alas bad news.

ConAgra Foods will cut 110 workers at a Milton, Pennsylvania, plant that makes Chef Boyardee foods and candied popcorn.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-11-16 17:14:46

There are still 110 workers making Chef Boyardee and candied popcorn? Guess Con-Agra finally discovered this factory hidden m among one of their many buyouts - boy, I bet those cans of gag-inducing over-cooked spaghetti packed in slime are really piling up!

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-11-16 19:33:30

I have often accused Neil of being a ConAgra stockholder. Good news though Neil: today’s “Friday market monitor” on Nightly Business Report was pumping ConAgra, which should create a reasonable selling opportunity next week if you need to lighten up your position.

Comment by MrBubble
2007-11-16 23:17:09

I saw that “report” too. That guy was a complete buffoon with a track record to beat that of Cramer’s. He was down like 20-30% in his last round of picks. Long trucking with a dollar that’s tanking. Wicked smart. Can you manage my money, please? I just have to go hit a cash machine…

 
 
 
Comment by HARM
2007-11-16 16:29:03

“Jeffry said the jumbo loan crisis hasn’t done much to stop entry-level or high-end buyers. ‘It’s hit the dead center, so that means in our counties, nobody is moving up,’ he said.”

Very high-end/Richistani buyers I can (sort of) see. Entry-level? Please… An “entry-level” buyer in the Bay area is a broke, innumerate barrista buying an 800sft former meth lab in San Jose with a $0-down NINJA option-ARM. The credit implosion has put said buyer on the “endangered” list. Next stop: extinction.

 
Comment by santacruzsux
2007-11-16 17:08:03

“‘No one has seen this before,’ Lyon Real Estate’s Michael Lyon. told a gathering of area home builders earlier this month.”

All this “Duh, duh we haven’t ever seen this before” crap coming from people is really getting annoying. Can’t they just admit that they are stupid and wrong? Just get on with the beating you were destined to have. If you get through it, bear the scars as warning to yourself and others.

I’ve never seen somebody get hit by a car, but I damn well know the likely consequences of such an incident without observing it directly.

 
Comment by Awaiting Bubble Rubble
2007-11-16 20:49:33

I’m simply AMAZED that the Acorn is reporting accurate price drops in VTA County. After I noticed the house I sold in Camarillo in November, 2004 again zillows at the price for which I sold it, I drove around my old neighborhood in Camarillo and found evidence that prices had dropped by about 10% (as I posted a couple of weeks back) since last year. The Acorn is a REIC throw away that typically publishes happy talk, including a piece quoting an economist stating that the VTA County economy is well diversified (20K of the county’s 81K jobs are with three employers–Amgen, Countrywide, VTA Govt center) and would not be impacted by layoffs at Countrywide or Amgen! If they are reporting price drops of 10%, the real number may well be 15% or more. In Thousand Oaks I have seen a noticable increase in the number of late model luxury cars with for sale signs in the windows and suspect many people laid off will be moving out of state.

 
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