‘Homebuilding Prospects Ultimately Become Good’: CEO
The press reacts to a homebuilders results today. “Is this the long-awaited demise of the new housing boom/bubble/occurrence? We’ve seem some pretty dicey new order numbers from the likes of KB Homes and Toll Brothers, and there’s plenty of chatter about what incentives builders might be forced to provide to prevent the cancellation of existing orders and/or drum up new ones.”
“Into this mess come Lennar’s fiscal first-quarter earnings. New orders were up just 4%, the weakest result I’ve seen here in a while. What’s more, the company reported that gross margin in the first quarter came under a little pressure from incentive programs in the West and Central operating areas.”
“I apologize for sounding like a broken record here, but I’m miffed once again that the company still does not include a balance sheet or cash flow statement with its release. If a company is going to talk up its balance sheet (as management did several times on their conference call), it’d be nice to actually, you know, see it.”
“Lennar Corp. CEO Stuart Miller said he remains optimistic about the company’s earnings prospects for the rest of the year and into 2007 despite cooling market conditions. ‘Market conditions have been slower in many of our major markets across the country,’ said Miller. ‘Not only have price escalations slowed materially in most markets, but traffic has been cooling down as well.’”
“Indeed, Lennar, like other builders, faced weaker housing demand, a surge in cancellations and more incentives and price discounting in the latest quarter. Orders rose only 4%, which is significantly slower than the 25% increase enjoyed in the previous quarter. The company’s cancellation rate rose to 24% from less than 20% a year ago, and the company’s average discounting and incentive program amounted to 4% of the average home price, up from 2.75% a year ago.”
“‘These slower conditions, however, have not amounted to the feared bursting of the bubble or a meltdown in the industry,’ Miller said. Miller is predicting a ’soft correction’ rather than a crash in the home-building world.”
“Miller acknowledges the company has faced some oversupply issues due to speculators, or flippers, deciding to sell, rather than buy, homes. This has created an ‘overhang’ in certain markets that saw huge price increases over the past few years.”
“Gross said demand has slowed in Sacramento, San Diego and Tucson, and the company significantly boosted incentives in Minnesota, Illinois, Colorado, Northern Virginia and Nevada in order to move sales. Among Lennar’s stronger markets in the quarter were Florida, the Carolinas and New Jersey, while some sections of the West, such as the Tucson, Ariz., area, saw a fall in new orders, the company said.”
“The company also plans to repurchase 2.5 million shares in the coming months. ‘While there might be shifts and jogs along the way due to economic factors and other things, people still need a place to live, and we think that the prospects for the home-building industry ultimately become good,’ Miller said.”
Here’s some balance sheet info that is available:
Inventory
11/30/03 $3.65 billion
11/30/04 $5.14 billion
11/30/05 $7.86 billion
Thanks to the reader who posted this breaking news: ‘General Motors Acceptance Corp., the finance arm of General Motors Corp., on Tuesday said it has misclassified cash outflows related to mortgage loan originations and purchases.’
‘GMAC said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it has to restate financial results for periods ended March 31, 2005 and 2004, June 30, 2005 and 2004 and September 30, 2005 and 2004.’
‘GM shares were halted in after-hours trading.’
Ben,
Why can’t they move that inventory to a new market? After all, they could just sell it and buy some more land elsewhere, right?
Read about GM.
If I worked there, I would cash out and leave now!!! If you wait to see what happens, there might not be anything left
Talked w/my brother-in-law today — GM worker for 20 years. They offered him $35K in exchange for his future earnings prospects at GM (a fairly standard offer), which shows you how much faith management places in the future of their own company…
I am interested in GM’s use of the term “restructuring.” Does anyone remember perestroeeka (Soviet economy restructuring), and how the Soviet Union’s economy fared afterwards?
I am so glad that you mentioned it. Many times I thought about bringing up the old Soviet Union to demonstrate how it appears that our we are following their economic model. I recommend for anyone who is interested in seeing into the future, not only in terms of RE and investements but in terms of civil liberties etc, to read about the history of that fallen down and crumbled empire. I am surprised you were able to connect those dots.
“Whoever battles with monsters had better see that it does not turn him into a monster.”
- Friederich Nietzsche-
The US slayed the monster of the Soviet Union (formerly known as the Evil Empire), only to quickly forget all the important lessons to be learned from their failed economic system about the failure of setting prices by command-and-control, instead of letting the invisible hand work its magic. Asset prices set by government manipulation have a tendency to diverge from fundamental values until they crash hard. Too bad we have to learn the lessons of history first hand by reliving past mistakes, as the vicarious approach is much less painful.
Perestroika was a political phenomena, not an economic one. Gorbachev, in fact, clung tightly to his socialist ideals. He gave up political controls while trying to retain the old system of production and subsidies. Note that the Chinese Communists paid close attention to what happened there, and they’re still in power.
The current housing bubble is entirely a product of the capitalist process–the government here was an enabler with low interest rates, but the rest of it is due to pure market forces. The Soviet way would have been to build an enourmous number of really ugly houses, price them at half the cost of construction, put them in places no one wanted to live, and then make you wait 10 years to be able to buy one.
Read about No mercy now, no bail-out later
.
“The levels of US household debt are vertiginous, rising 8.6pc in 2000 from already dizzy heights, then again 8.6pc in 2001, 9.7pc in 2002, 11.4pc in 2003, 11.1pc in 2004 and 11.7pc in 2005.
The Fed itself has warned that millions of punters are “in over their heads” with 100pc mortgages and zero up-front interest costs. The personal savings rate has turned negative for the first time since the early 1930s.
As fitting testimony to the bubble, estate agents, surveyors, and the army of workers linked to property made up 55pc of the 2m jobs created by the US economy from 2000 to 2005, according to Moody’s.
The rolls of the National Association of Realtors have grown from 767,000 to 1.2m in five years.”
Here is more on your quoted passage:
“The
Financial Times reports:
“Levels of US household debt are vertiginous, rising 8.6pc in 2000 from
already dizzy heights, then again 8.6pc in 2001, 9.7pc in 2002, 11.4pc in
2003, 11.1pc in 2004 and 11.7pc in 2005.”
Much of this borrowing is centered on housing, says the Financial Times,
with “[real estate] agents, surveyors, and the army of workers linked to
property made up 55pc of the 2m jobs created by the US economy from 2000
to 2005, according to Moody’s.
“The rolls of the National Association of Realtors have grown from 767,000
to 1.2m in five years.
“The Americans are now drawing down 6pc of GDP from the equity in their
houses each year, much of it to pay bills or splash out on a spanking new
V-6 Chevrolet Equinox.
“Goldman Sachs estimates that 68pc of this home equity withdrawal is spent
outright on consumption. It warned that the drag on growth could reach
1.5pc of GDP by next year if property stalls.
“It is a portrait of a nation that is living further beyond its means than
any advanced society has ever dared before.”
Comforting, eh?
Can you say “fundamental economic imbalance”?
“I apologize for sounding like a broken record here, but I’m miffed once again that the company still does not include a balance sheet or cash flow statement with its release.”
Fannie Mae has taught an important lesson about balance sheets: It is not necessary to produce one to stay listed on the NYSE, or even to maintain the value of your company’s share price.
Because what you don’t know won’t hurt you
Read about US debt clock running out of time, space.
“So rapid is the rise of the US national debt, that the last four digits of a giant digital signboard counting the moving total near New York’s Times Square move in seemingly random increments as they struggle to keep pace.
The national debt clock, as it is known, is a big clock. A spot-check last week showed a readout of 8.3 trillion — or more precisely 8,310,200,545,702 — dollars … and counting.
But it’s not big enough.
The clock’s owner, real estate developer Douglas Durst, knew such a problem could arise but hadn’t counted on it so soon.”
Read about The U.S. Economic Forecast*.
Their outlook sure looks rosey
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
My, oh my what a wonderful day!
Plenty of sunshine heading my way
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
It’s not a bad report, but I think we are going to have to wait to see what really happens:
“Lennar’s success stands in contrast to a national decline in new home sales.”
It’s really too early to make statements like this. New homes sales have just started to fall nationally.
BubbleTrack.blogspot.com
Miller is predicting a ’soft correction’ rather than a crash in the home-building world.”
Sucker Other Fools To-buy
Are there still some left?
Common. What’s there to complain about ?
From Strong growth (in 2004) to Robust growth to Slowing appreciation to balanced market to flat prices to modest correction to Soft Landing to …
I like this changing tune. In fact I love it.
Well guess what…. hehehehe
The prospect of deviating from these 1/4 point hikes must be terrifying, given the underlying fragility…
This captures the moment:
THE FED
Monetary policy still far from normal
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:24 PM ET Mar 28, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/o5p9l
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - If the Federal Reserve follows its historic patterns, it’ll raise interest rates between two and eight more times before stopping.
HAHAHAHAHA SUCKERS!!!!!!!
LOL. Minimalist but captures the moment.