Starting To See A Change In California
The Press Democrat reports from California. “Sonoma County’s housing downturn deepened in October, when sales tumbled to a 16-year low and the typical house sold for nearly 9 percent under a year ago, according to The Press Democrat’s latest real estate report. Only 233 homes sold in October, well below the historic average for the month. The median resale price fell for the 16th consecutive month — to $515,000 — returning prices to levels not seen since October 2004.”
“The housing downturn is worse in Sonoma County and other counties on the Bay Area’s edge largely because sales have been slowest and price declines greatest among homes priced around $500,000. More homeowners in that range relied on risky loans to purchase homes around the market’s peak and may be forced to sell.”
“‘We’re still trying to work through the inventory and the bad loans. Under $500,000 is where the inventory is amazing,’ said Rick Laws, Santa Rosa manager for Sonoma County’s largest residential brokerage.”
“At the end of October there were 2,597 houses for sale in the county, October’s highest level since 1992, when the county was last in a housing decline. October’s median resale price is down 8.8 percent from a year ago and off 16.8 percent from the peak in August 2005.”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “The state lost 15,800 jobs outside the farm sector during the month after smoothing out the numbers for seasonal variations, the Employment Development Department reported Friday. Construction and finance, the two sectors most closely tied to housing, led the way down.”
“‘Job losses in construction and financial activities are intensifying,’ said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. ‘The ripple effect of these two sectors is showing up in every sector.’”
“Sonja Hastings, founder of Oakland firm that recruits mid- and senior-level sales professionals has noticed one effect of the housing slump, a surge of applications from out-of-work mortgage professionals.”
“‘We’re getting flooded with those resumes these days,’ she said. ‘Every day we get 20. We couldn’t find those people in 2001 and 2002, but they’re everywhere now.’”
The Recordnet. “Unemployment in San Joaquin County for October jumped to 8.1 percent, almost twice the national rate of 4.4 percent and well above the state’s 5.4 percent unemployment rate. A good portion of the lost jobs were in construction, financial activities, hospitality and agriculture.”
“In the financial activities sector, which includes jobs in real estate, finance and insurance, 500 jobs were lost in the past year - dropping from 9,900 to 9,400 in the county, according to EDD.”
“‘Financial activities is not seasonal,’ said Liz Baker, EDD’s labor-market analyst for San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties. ‘The economy is changing all around primarily due to the housing market and the mortgage crisis. It’s just transcending across all industries at this point.’”
The Union Tribune. “The slumping housing market led to thousands of job losses throughout California last month, prompting fears that the state and local economies are lurching into a recession.”
“Payrolls at nine of the 11 major industries in the state fell last month, led by construction, which lost 4,200 jobs. In San Diego County, the job losses included a 1,000-worker decline in construction employment.”
“‘The direction that job creation has taken is making everybody nervous,’ Adibi said. ‘The main factor is job losses in construction and the mortgage industry. And the worst is not behind us. The job losses have intensified and will probably continue well into 2008.’”
“‘The whole thing is getting worse,’ said Christopher Thornberg, economist at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. ‘Housing prices are falling at a pretty solid pace. Foreclosures are mounting. Defaults are skyrocketing, and a large number of them will turn into foreclosures. Can we use the ‘R’ word? Sure.’”
“Kelly Cunningham, economist at the San Diego Institute for Policy Research, said he is more troubled by last month’s 1,200-worker decline in the county’s civilian labor force, which is a relatively volatile measurement of self-employed workers as well as salaried employees.”
“‘The civilian labor force includes people like self-employed real estate agents who haven’t sold anything for many months, but are getting by on credit cards or with the help of their families,’ Cunningham said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “During the real estate boom, consumers used their equity to finance personal spending sprees. Now they’re more apt to close their wallets. That’s already affected car sales in California, they fell 12 percent in June, the latest figures available.”
“Not surprisingly, the commercial real estate market is sagging, too, particularly among retailers. Sacramento brokers say vacancies have crept up and rental prices are coming down. Construction of new projects is waning.”
“‘People have backed off,’ said Garrick Brown, regional research director at Colliers International real estate. Part of the problem is that entrepreneurs are no longer using home-equity loans to bankroll a new store or restaurant, he said.”
“‘Throw in oil prices … and we’ve got a royal mess on our hands,’ Thornberg said.”
The Daily Bulletin. “Job creation is slowing to a crawl in the Inland Empire, and employers may be crawling even slower than the numbers indicate.”
“Locally, the job creation numbers are about half of what they’ve been the last few years, even if they do turn out to be correct. ‘Either way it’s looking like a bad year,’ said John Husing, a regional economist based in Redlands. ‘These numbers would make it the worst year for job creation since the early ’90s.’”
The Salinas Californian. “The real estate boom of the past several years ushered a record number of Latinos into the housing market, with the community hitting a milestone this year: Half now own homes.”
“But the credit crunch and escalating foreclosure rates that have hit over the past year or so threaten to erode some of the gains.”
“In 2005, Marcos Rios purchased a two-bedroom house off North Main Street for his family. He said his mortgage consultant took advantage of him and his wife, putting them into loans they couldn’t afford and making several refinancing promises that never came true.”
“While discussions took place in Spanish, Rios said, the documents they signed, which had substantially different information, were in English.”
“To make his monthly mortgage payment of $3,600, he said, he had to take up three jobs. His wife, Janet, had to work two jobs. Their packed schedules affected their health, and the two ended up in the hospital at different times.”
“‘It was a disastrous situation,’ Rios said. ‘I just wanted to provide a proper home for my children.’”
“After losing his home to foreclosure earlier this year, the Rioses, who have three children, rented a three-bedroom home on Constitution Boulevard, where their monthly payment is less than half what their mortgage had been. Rios now only works one job, at The Salinas Californian, and Janet has started up her own housecleaning business.”
“‘One of the things we’re seeing is people who have no equity in their property,’ said Jill Perry, who works for a nonprofit that offers housing counseling in northern Nevada. ‘They’ve used their house as their ATM.’”
“Manny Aguilar, a real estate agent in Salinas, said he’s been inundated with phone calls from people in danger of losing their homes. Most of his clients are Latino.”
“Aguilar said many of his clients bought homes with other agents, only to see their monthly payments suddenly shoot up because interest rates on their loans increased. ‘They were buying $600,000 homes on a $400,000 budget,’ he said.”
“It’s shown in Monterey County, which saw 688 foreclosure filings in the third quarter of this year compared with 142 in last year’s third quarter, according to RealtyTrac.”
“Mel Schell of San Andreas was able to buy that foreclosure home he wanted, but it took a foreclosure auction to make the sale happen.”
“Three weeks ago, he made a $180,000 offer for an 1,100-square-foot house with a list price then of $243,000, but the bank countered at $210,000 and Schell backed off. When the house was listed among 60 area homes being auctioned off Thursday night at the Stockton Grand Hotel, he returned, curious about the auction process, and made another run at it.”
“He was hoping for a bargain but did end up placing the top bid in spirited bidding - at $180,000. ‘That’s amazing to me,’ he said. ‘I was hoping to get it for less, but I’m satisfied.’”
“This was an auction, with no minimum set bids, of 60 foreclosed homes that had sat on the market unsold for at least several months. All homes were ’sold,’ although the banks that repossessed the homes can reject the top bids in coming days if deemed too low. There were no bank representatives present at the auction.”
“Bids ranged from a low of $40,000 for a 1,128-square-foot boarded-up home on south Stockton’s East 12th Street to a high of $350,000 for a 1,668-square-foot home, with assigned boat deck, in the Delta’s upscale Discovery Bay.”
“Cindy Mello, with Coldwell Banker The Vintage Group, had a half-dozen listings up for auction, and she said the top bids came in at about 40 percent under the current list prices.”
“Although Hudson & Marshall says more than 90 percent of top auction bids are accepted by highly motivated banks, Mello said most of the top bids were discounted too steeply for most banks. ‘I just don’t think the banks are going to give those discounts yet,’ she said. ‘That’s just too low. For the banks, their sweet spot is about 15 percent below.’”
“Travis Campbell of Lodi went to the auction looking for a bargain and got one - if the bank takes his top bid. He put in the top bid of $150,000 for a 2,600-square-foot Stockton fourplex - bought two years ago for $450,000.”
“‘I’ll be happy as soon as the bank accepts the offer, and I’ll be over there with crews fixing up the property,’ he said.”
“Frank Orello, (an) agent with six houses up for auction, said that in the previous several months he had fielded offers for all six that were at least $60,000 to $80,000 higher than the top bid marks in the auction.”
“He said he didn’t know what the banks might do with the offers. ‘They’ve played hardball when they should be trying to make a deal,’ he said. ‘I’m already starting to see a change.’”
‘The slumping housing market led to thousands of job losses throughout California last month, prompting fears that the state and local economies are lurching into a recession.’
OK, Union Tribune, I’m forced to remind you guys that you subjected us to quote after quote from these SD area economists, telling us that lower home prices were impossible without a recession. And that with no aerospace industry to lose, you were bullet-proof. This in spite of the FACT that housing leads the economy into recession the vast majority of the time. I’m just sayin…
Ben-I know it’s easy to harp on the daily papers but desparate times call for desparate measures. Their desparate measures have them acting as a shill for their largest revenue base, the real estate market. They are almost just as screwed as the Fb’s.
Craig’s List has also crushed a lot of their ad revenue. The SD Union was forced to give people free ads that sell their personal belongings I believe under the amount of $5,000, cars excluded.
That, compiled with ad revenue from real estate clients & car dealers’ going down the crapper, they are up $hit’s creek without a paddle.
That doesn’t justify the shill spin they use to put on things(not as much now because they are forced to print more truth) but when businesses are hurting, whatever morals they had many times goes out the window.
The UT is notorious for their Chamber of Ccommerce spin on every significant news story concerning the region. We usually have to find out what is REALLY going on in San Diego by reading the LA Times or NY Times.
Read the LA Times for better news? That makes me sad to hear.
When I studied Russian many years ago (circa 1980), my teacher was a freshly-arrived Russian immigrant. I marveled at the stories she told of the challenges Soviet citizens faced trying to read through the propaganda screen of stories in Pravda.
Now to my condsiderable dismay I see the newspaper in my recently-adopted hometown is quite often not much different than my Russian instructor’s description of Pravda. Fortunately I have the requisite education to call BS on their REIC booster spin when it appears in print.
House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices in the second half of each calendar year showed a median change of:
2003: 0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (=-$60K!!)
2007: -0.5%
So how are prices doing lately?
..to read the rest of the news, please visit: http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id370.html
Thanks!
Exactly. They would minimize the developing problem by saying that in the past job losses and recessions resulted in housing busts. They never turned that on its head: what if a housing bust starts and then we have job losses and a recession? The drop in home sales and price appreciation WITH unemployment levels very low should have set off alarm bells.
I emailed an author from the UT the other day, complaining about the disconnect between the title and the (more realistic) content of the article. He replied..
“To make his monthly mortgage payment of $3,600, he said, he had to take up three jobs. His wife, Janet, had to work two jobs. Their packed schedules affected their health, and the two ended up in the hospital at different times.”
ROFLMAO !! Did they have insurance or did we tax payers pay for hospital charges?
Leave the guest worker alone…he is doing work no American wants to do LOL.
I leave guest workers alone because they’re just trying to help their families out of poverty.
Would that be the families they massively produce when they come here? You know, the ones the taxpayers have to pay for in welfare payments, medical expenses and education? If you can’t feed ‘em, don’t breed ‘em.
that’s a nice stereotype.
Ah yes - the daily anti immigrant rant. Yep - just get rid of all those illegals and everything would be fine. I only wish the so-called true americans could be as hard working and devoted to their families as the illegals I’ve met and known. It is true that alot of them do work that the spoiled public think they’re too good to do - like clean their homes, cook their food, raise their children, do their gardening, build their homes, etc. The sad part is the longer they live here and assimilate, the more they turn into the lazy, spoiled, consumers this society has turned into. This is as big a waste of band with as the generational wars.
and your stereotype of them “just trying to help their families out of poverty” is somehow more valid?
I invite you to walk into Hillsborough County’s clinics any weekday and take a look, or the local emergency room or at the local post office when the Social Sec payments come in for the children. That’s been one of the unfortunate side effects of the bubble in this area, the builders got the cheap labor and built their lousy housing and then dumped their labor and their families on the community to take care of. Then the agricultural interests scream because they don’t have enough guest workers and want more, on account of the illegals turned up their noses at field work in favor of construction we never needed and DON’T need any more of. Give the Hillsborough County Sherrif’s office a call and ask them if there’s been a spike in gang violence in the area, they’ll tell you. I know this, because they’ve been having weekly seminars for the residents around here and had a long discussion with one of the local constabulary about it. Stereotype, my patootie. I got a little niece I want to make sure doesn’t end up getting rolled under some Sur 13 gangbangers on her way home from school.
” like clean their homes, cook their food, raise their children, do their gardening, build their homes, etc.”
Now THERE’S a stereotype. I clean my own place, cooks my own grub, don’t have a garden and when I do buy a house, chances are, it will be pre-1980s and will have been built by American labor and built right. Illegals have been a very unfortunate side effect of the bubble, but you go right ahead and believe the government numbers about layoffs in construction if you want.
Yeah, my buddy Steven’s wife was killed by a stereotype, a drunk illegal construction worker on his way home from happy hour, right on 301 in Hillsborough. Real fuzzy family love type stuff.
I’m not stereotyping. I’m speaking of people I have met and known, which I state above. I’m just cranky because the illegal gardeners next door woke me up too early on a Saturday morning.
Wow - I had no idea that all gangmembers are illegals and that you could tell someone’s citizenship status by looking at them. I also didn’t know that just because you and I, Palmy, did our own work, that means all those workers everyone talks about taking all the jobs aren’t illegals. I also didn’t know that the housing bubble was caused by illegal construction workers not wallstreet, the banks, the mortgage brokers or realtors. I didn’t know that constructions companies and contractors didn’t screw all the american citizens in those trades by trying to up their profit by hiring cheaper labor. I knew I was learning alot on this blog, but I had no idea of how much I didn’t know about life.
“and your stereotype of them “just trying to help their families out of poverty” is somehow more valid?”
yes, why else would people walk through the desert and risk their lives? many are desperately poor. latinos send more money back to their homes than their is FDI into latin america. securing the border, if that’s even possible, means when they get here they stay and try to bring their families because they can’t risk crossing the border again.
be nice, someday we may be the illegals going to canada or mexico with the way the dollar and the economy is going.
it’s sad that illegals still probably manage to save more regular americans do.
If you condone of some types of illegality and disapprove of other types, you may well have something to learn about life..
John .. a stereotype, by definition, cannot be valid. If you admit you used a stereotype, just say so. Then say something like “In my opinion..” and I’d have no objection to whatever follows..
as long as what follows is not “..my opinion is more valid than your opinion”.
I guess I didn’t use a stereotype. however, the fact that more in remittances is sent back by illegals than FDI into latin america is true. if they aren’t here to work, what do they walk through the desert for?
This is a complicated situation. For years I’ve argued that the Mexican government has pawned off its poor on the US so that their privileged classes can keep their 99% of the wealth. The illegals that come to the US from Mexico are desperate. On the other hand, it makes me crazy when advocates for illegal immigrants make arguments like the one just posted in today’s LA Times with regards to a new law targeting uninisured motorists, allowing the police to remove their license plates. “…if it became law, [this] could be a hardship for people who can’t afford insurance…” WTF? I’m sorry, but this is just wrong.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-drivers17nov17,1,7251552.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=2&cset=true
it’s sad that illegals still probably manage to save more regular americans do.
It’s much easier to save when you don’t pay taxes, don’t have crushing medical expenses, etc.
The illegals I know laugh all the way to the bank.
“Wow - I had no idea that all gangmembers are illegals and….Ah yes - the daily anti immigrant rant. Yep - just get rid of all those illegals and everything would be fine”
My response:
I would say that in LA city 80-90% of the gangbangers are either illegals or their offspring. When they get shot or injured in gangfights and go to ER, which happens 100 times a day in LA, the taxpayers foot the bill. Illegal-alien crime syndicates, mostly Hispanic, have ripped off Insurance companys out of billions thru auto accident insurance fraud, causing all law-abiding insured to pay 10-15 % more in premiums. 1 out of 2 incoming illegals in the 80’s- 90’s used fake ID,s obtained in Macarthur park, to get work eiligibility.
11-12 LA- Area hospital ER trauma centers have closed down due to being swamped by uninsured illegals. 50% of all illegals have delberately changed their ID’s using fake stolen/borrowed SS numbers/ fake driver licenses/fake green cards to game the system and get quasi-legal work eligiblity. The amt of fraud engaged by illegals and their illegal or US- born offspring would fill a 5″ thick book.
All this i had layed out in 2003 thru 300-400 letter’s, E–mails , faxes to all gov’t officials, pundits, radio programs newspapers,ect. John and Ken(LA area AM radio 640, 3-6 pm ) jumped on the anti-llegal-alien bandwagon partly thru the tireless efforts of folks like me who flooded the program with irate calls and letters.
Not all illegals participated in the frauds but a very few criminal ringleaders could recruit dozens of otherwise law-abiding honest ‘cappers’ to participate in the frauds, since the risks of getting caught were almost zero and the border was only 2 hrs drive away as a ’safety valve’.
Any more juicy details! A bit off topic from RE but any assertions on this blog that illegals are a benefit to USA/CA/LA or do not crap all over the system will get a whiff of anti-illegal grapeshot flung at them.
To me, everything above misses the crux of the argument. Mexico doesn’t allow Americans to overstay visas, work, or own property (without title restrictions). Believe it or not, there are skilled American worker including construction workers living in Mexico (San Miguel de Allende comes to mind) who work for free because they would be fined and deported if found working for wages.
Every American I know would consider themselves rightfully in violation of sovereign laws if they were in any foreign country without valid visa or papers - they would expect fines, jail time, and deportation and would never consider that they had any “rights.” When Mexico gives Americans the same freedom in their country they expect from us in this one, I’ll change my tune.
When it comes to the housing bubble, IMHO, the illegals are at the bottom of the list of bad guys. There are supposedly 20 million illegals here. I don’t know how a crime syndicate in LA relates to millions. I guess because most of wall street, government, banks and realtors have operated like a crime syndicate ripping off the entire country and most are white citizens, that means I must be a criminal, too because I’m white? Like there’s no white crime syndicates or Russian mafia. Bad folks come in all colors. If you judge an entire ethnic group by their bad guys, then we’re all bad guys. It’s all scapegoating IMO and detracts from the real discussion of the manipulation of our finances and housing market.
“If you condone of some types of illegality and disapprove of other types, you may well have something to learn about life…”
I learned through reading history and reading about economics that immigration laws are failures in this country. there are massive incentives for everyone to disobey them, most of all for the poor illegals. they shouldn’t be illegal, they laws need to be changed so they can legally work here in greater numbers. our immigration laws are about as successful as the war on drugs or prohibition.
if your family was desperately poor, would you disobey immigration laws so they eat and have a roof over their heads?
John, if they aren’t here to work, what do they walk through the desert for?
OK. We agree that they are in it for the money.
But how they plan on getting that money and what they will do with the money cannot be safely assumed, neither on an individual basis nor in the general sense, imo.
Bottom line, it’s just gotten completely crazy in this country, when illegal activity of any sort (Wall Street and gov included) become even a matter of debate as to whether it merits amnesty or looking the other way. Maybe its my frame of mind today, starting with that Liberty Dollar issue and the Joseph Stiglitz article, but I tend to agree with Paul Craig Roberts that Americans have lost their country, utterly. I’ll go down with the ship here, but I plan to go down fighting. I’ve reached a point of sheer disgust with the effects of the bubble, and I’m ready to indulge in the public humiliation of any realtor who gives me a raft of crap about how the market is coming back, or any developer who hawks so much as another outhouse in my area.
“It’s much easier to save when you don’t pay taxes, don’t have crushing medical expenses, etc.”
they pay sales tax, property tax is they own a home, they pay SS taxes for money they’ll probably never see.
peter m- those people you described are criminals, we don’t want them here. nobody would defend them coming here. it’s clear that we need more worker programs so we have less illegal immigrants. once we stop harassing otherwise law abiding illegal immigrants(who are just victims of bad immigration laws) we can focus more of our resources on those that have no business being here and are truely illegal.
illegal immigration right now is nothing more than the prohibition of our time.
i posted a link to a story a while back.. about the impact of the migration on local Mexican economies back home.. Bottom line is the Mexican economy is suffering. Among the many sob stories, one woman who owned a restaurant in a small town was closing her restaurant, complaining that all the wage earners had gone North and the town was destitute..
So, are they really sending money back home?
“they pay SS taxes for money they’ll probably never see.”
They see it all the time if they have kids, more than they pay in.
For those that think “Illegals do jobs Americans won’t do…”
Thirty years ago, Meatpackers were Unionized; it didn’t pay a huge amount of money, but if you and the wife both worked at one of the packing plants, you could afford to at least pay for the house and support a couple of kids.
Most of the plants are in “Right to Work” states…..in the early 80’s this morphed into “Illegal Alien Right to Work” states. The Meatpackers demanded wage and benefit cuts, and if they didn’t get them, they would let the Union strike, then replace them all with illegals…..bye-bye lower middle class.
Everyone I know has had either themselves or an immediate family member experience the problems caused by illegal immigration…..uninsured drivers, crime, property values devalued by the neighborhood Hispanic family an 15-20 of their closest relatives moving into one SFR.
I’m just thankful that we don’t share a border with China.
yes joey.
Mexico remittances jump to record $23 bln in 2006
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN3140565020070201
“In Latin America, along with south Asia one of the two regions benefiting most from the trend, remittances are expected to reach more than $60bn this year, an amount that would exceed the combined total of foreign direct investment and official development aid.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/c5ac0056-5ebf-11db-afac-0000779e2340.html
“Everyone I know has had either themselves or an immediate family member experience the problems caused by illegal immigration…..uninsured drivers, crime, property values devalued by the neighborhood Hispanic family an 15-20 of their closest relatives moving into one SFR.”
those people are criminals, they should be punished. what I’m talking about is our joke of an immigration policy. we need to reform the laws so people can work here legally instead of illegaly. how many people don’t have car insurance because they are afraid if they apply for it they could get deported? or they’ll be denied because they are illegal? I’ve read that crime among illegals is lower than the general american population. perhaps people live 20 to a house because instead of going back home when they are finished working they can’t go home because they might not get back into the US. I would also say that our drug laws and drug use help destabilize the economies where the drugs are produced. the end result is that people come here.
Wed Jan 31, 2007 .. that report is a year old. Current reports all show a distinct drop.. but that’s beside the point.
$23 billion in remittances does not mean anything in and of itself.. it sounds nice. It seems like large number.
But what if Mexico’s economy is sacrificing $50 bln in GDP by exporting a huge portion of the able bodied workforce, and only your aforementioned $23 bln returns home? There’s a shortfall of $27 bln.
I would also say that our drug laws and drug use help destabilize the economies where the drugs are produced.
Good Lord.. Are you suggesting our drug laws curtail the drug trade and therefore “destabilize” the economies of drug producing countries?
Our laws against armed robbery must be hitting them where it hurts too..
Our drug laws do nothing but incarcerate people w/o ever addressing the problem, drug use. NY experimented with the Rockefeller drug laws and they don’t work. the drug laws just drive up the price of drugs and benefits the criminals and gang members. the criminals in other countries use that money to intimidate the gov’t(or bribe it) and undermine society which in turn creates some illegal immigration. drug laws are nothing more than the new prohibition. prohibition did not work and neither has the war on drugs.
” law abiding illegal immigrants”
That’s the kind of logic that made RE what it is today. What is it about the word “illegal” that you don’t understand? Does the concept of nation governed by laws elude you? There are currently more than 1 million illegal aliens in American prisons doing time for felony convictions…rape, murder, drug smuggling etc. Then their are the massive amounts of id theft, of forged documents, of social security and SSDI fraud (didn’t know that illegals game the disability system, since being a citizen or ever having worked in the US is not a requirement–great way to dump grandma and grandpa mexico on the taxpayers. There’s the federal, state and local taxes they don’t pay, the wages they hold down by working illegally at less than minimum wage, the emergency rooms they flood, the critical care facilities they bankrupt, the EIC they game from the IRS, the demands for special treatment et.al, the list is nauseating.
As for Are They Crazy…so what size check from your personal account are you willing to write to cover the costs of one illegal family…surely your bleeding heart demands that you put your money where your mouth is.
By the way, Mexico has stationed it’s army on its southern border to keep central americans from invading their country…do you think they’d allow lawbreakers to invade and despoil their country?
The largest street gang in the USA is MS-13. They have 100,000 members and over 90% of them are illegal immigrants or their offspring. The second largest gang is the 18th Street gang with over 40,000 members. They are also 90% illegals and their children. These are also the most violent gangs in the country. They make the Mafia look like boyscouts. When these savages are arrested and deported, they cross the border and return to their barrios a few weeks later.
Maybe Mexico remains a cesspool of corruption because we allow them to dump their problems on us? Maybe Mexico is so poor because they refuse to control their birthrate? Is it racism if I state that Mexico has a higher birthrate than the USA?
“they pay SS taxes for money they’ll probably never see.”
Now Illegal aliens and I have something in common to complain about.
We are starting to have auctions in Portland, OR, so no, it’s not different here after all.
Yup, I just heard the same thing yesterday. There is a Lake Oswego builder who is going to auction off around 230 homes (?). My friend was so excited. He said, “I’m going to get myself a house for $69,000!! He said that the homes will be sold for 10 cents on the dollar they were originally appraised at $300,000 - $690,000.
I kinda doubt that, but for sure they will be sold at a fraction of their “value”. In my opinion, the psychic damage of these auctions is the worst. Just imagine the thousands of homes on the market. People hear about auctions, and they’re going to panic in my opinion.
They will realize their “castle” is in fact a liability.
But ~ for sure. Portland
Banks haven’t be willing to sell at reasonable prices to avoid booking losses, which by now they are being forced to do. Soon I’d expect foreclosures to be dumped at fire-sale prices just to get rid of them. A newer, lower set of comps is on its way.
A newer, lower set of comps is on its way.
A brave new world we’ve been waiting years for. And yes, I’m fully aware compared to others I’m a “Johnny come lately.”
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Frank Orello, (an) agent with six houses up for auction, said that in the previous several months he had fielded offers for all six that were at least $60,000 to $80,000 higher than the top bid marks in the auction.
Good sign these sucker auctions are beginning to fail……a necessary step before we ever see a true bottom.
Central LA is still way outta control. I see stucco box houses selling right away for more than asking. I know someone who just put their house up for sale in Hancock Park. Their neighbor offered $1.3 million in cash, and they’re going to ask for 1.4. My head nearly explodes every time I see this stuff, but it’s true. Gonna be a while before LA cools off, but when it does, I’ll pop the champagne.
“Central LA is still way outta control. I see stucco box houses selling right away for more than asking. I know someone who just put their house up for sale in Hancock Park. Their neighbor offered $1.3 million in cash, and they’re going to ask for 1.4. My head nearly explodes every time I see this stuff, but it’s true. Gonna be a while before LA cools off, but when it does, I’ll pop the champagne”
All LA County will cool off more quickly that you can imagine. The Westside areas may still be seeing purchases of mega mcmansions by a few well-heeled buyers but the rest of LA is toast. The foreclosures are piling up thick and fast in most of the lower and middle income zip areas which comprise 95% of the total LA county area. The Banks will soon be dumping these REO’s at rock bottom prices hopefuly by early 2008 . I have in my immediate hood 4 empty POS’’s which have just sat there all year. The banks cannot hang onto these properties forever: sooner or later they will unload these at deep discounts. Already seen REO prices for 3/2, 1500 sq ft sfh’s as low as t $249 square ft,(redfin) which will decimate the already plummiting LB RE market.
You may want to go ahead and pop the champagne now. Here are some LA stats.
“By Home Data’s calculations, 3,269 homes were sold during October, -57% YOY. The affect of the credit crunch is now spreading. Sales volume dropped everywhere. Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR reports that what we are seeing now far exceeds what we would expect seasonally.
High end areas have been getting hit, though the effects have been mixed. Indeed, in the beach cities, most medians are UP on very low sales volumes, so the effect of high-end sales holding up the market persists. One realtor for Beverly Hills noted that multiple offers start coming in when asking prices are reduced 10 or 15 percent. The realtor notes that when sellers cut their prices by that much that buyers are dealing with “a real seller.”
A year ago there was a 7.8 month supply of inventory on the market and now it is almost 19 months worth. During our last great L.A. County slump, inventory backlog peaked at 15 months in 1993, according to this article.
Remember how late last year and early this year the industry was confident that inventory was getting mopped up? Well it wasn’t, and now there’s more of it.
Another realtor reports “The market just stopped,” after watching one Burbank home fall out of escrow because the buyers’ buyers couldn’t get a loan to purchase the buyers’ prior home. The Burbank home went back into escrow at 10% less.”
The area that I live in, Redondo Beach, shows October SFR sales down 55% verse last October. Now thats out of control.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm
Here are the latest October datquick figures for LA zips. As I expected and long predicted, practically all the bombed out ghettoized zips are plummeting.
Most of the middle-working class ordinary areas such as Van Nuys , Whittier, Long Beach, Torrance, Downey, West Covina/Covina, Montebello, El monte, bellflower, Lakewood, La mirada, Glendale, Northridge, Winnetka, Gardena, Carson, Diamond Bar, Claremont, Cerritos and Burbank are dropping . Average drops in these middle markets looks about -10%.YOY.
The low and medium- priced housing market in LA is taking a pounding, with sales i all these areas way down.
This is very odd. Over here in Glendale some homes are selling within a month of the sign being put on the lawn. Other sit vacant for a really long time (over a year!!). So whats the deal here? Its all in the same zipcode and general area. The niceness is about the same and the houses are either huge or normal. All built a long time ago. I don’t get it. Everytime I see a ton of signs I think to myself ok this is it, no one will buy. And then bam some new SOLD signs.
It’s also like that here in Redondo. Unit sales verses last year have literally fallen off a cliff, I mean you are talking 50% to 60% drops in volume. Thats dramatic. I think what you are seeing is affordability in action. Only a handful of properties are selling in the high end areas, thats because there is only a handful of people that can actually afford those prices. Thats why unit sales are way down. This dynamic suggest an eroding market. So yea you can see a property sell at asking price but what about the other 5 properties just like it that don’t move. Plus you have new inventory that is going to hit this next Spring and I seriously doubt demand will improve by then. The forces of recession will be the knock out blow to the high end California market.
In an auction, who pays the comission -buyer or seller ?
Both. There’s a seller’s and a buyer’s premium. They get ya coming and going.
“This was an auction, with no minimum set bids.. snip..although the banks that repossessed the homes can reject the top bids in coming days if deemed too low.
i get it.. the highest bid wins, unless it’s not high enough.
The banks have a choice to make. Do I take a loss now or do I take a larger loss later? I would take the bird in the hand.
If there is no minimum bid, it’s an “absolute” auction and the bank has no choice and must accept the highest bid.
If there is a minimum bid, it’s a reserve auction, and the bank still has no choice.. either the bid is above reserve or it isn’t.
Very curious if there ever will be real auctions. None of this ebay nonsense. I assume the banks can hold onto the properties for a very long time. Otherwise maybe that will go on the books as a loss. And the financials are already faking their losses.
will there ever be real auctions.. I think we’re looking at ‘real’ auctions.
But unlike a cattle auction or some commodity auction where the savy buyers keep close track of the market and are unlikely to overpay, these home auctions are sprinkled with .. how can i be kind here.. hmm.. sprinkled with anxious amateurs.
Eventually, the sheer volume of housing inventory will force banks to unload quickly. Auctions can sell a lot of product in a short time.
“Aguilar said many of his clients bought homes with other agents, only to see their monthly payments suddenly shoot up because interest rates on their loans increased. ‘They were buying $600,000 homes on a $400,000 budget,’ he said.”
Sheesh. More like a $150,000 budget. Unless, of course, they were planning on packing in 3 or 4 families under one roof.
Well, it got nuts on the upside, but not that nuts.
haha, lets see 400K house makes it around 100K income minimum plus some money down to buy it, and keep it.
Oh yeah, I’m sure the median income is 100K up there. Sure.
These guys are still way off on what these places could close escrow for in today’s mortgage lending enviroment..
Should I be worried: A Mexican family bought the house next door over a year ago for $525,000 (to put this in perspective - we bought our house with twice the acreage in ‘00 for $150,000 ). They are quiet neighbors, but the place is getting pretty distressed looking - junk in the yard, shrubs not watered, ugly sheds and outbuildings popping up around the house. They enclosed the whole place with an ugly fence - gives the place a compound look. Another neighbor complained to the county, but nothing happened. The three annoying chihauas (sp?) disappeared a few weeks ago. Is this place getting ready to be abandoned??? I can’t figure out at all how they are affording the mortgage. The wife doesn’t speak English and doesn’t drive (so I assume she doesn’t work, at least at a high paying job). The husband speaks broken English and is raising chickens and doing some gardening/farming on the place - but that can’t be bringing in much money. There are other folks who come and go there, so they might be contributing to the mortgage. But I get worried every time I walk by the place and I try not to let my imagination run wild.
You are being too Eurocentric. What you are witnessing is the benefits of cultural diversity as our neighborhoods begin to mimic the 3rd World. Our politicians and acedemia are telling us it will be wonderful - as long as they don’t have to live in those neighborhoods.
I know this has been asked here many, many times, but “Who the hell is buying homes right now?!?!” I just don’t get it…
“Only 233 homes sold in October, well below the historic average for the month.”
who’s buying? People who qualify for the loan are buying.
This is an unusual market .. anyone who’s not up to speed assumes the real estate market is “normal” .. that is, prices creep up slowly.
The average j6pk is as yet unaware that prices are falling. The real estate market is very innefficient, meaning that the effects of any market shifts spread very slowly.
You have to figure that the real estate “professionals” are still telling buyers that “now is the time to buy.” Some people are just too dense to do any research on their own. They take the agent’s word … and then complain in a year when their house is worth half what they paid.
I think it will take a major catastrophe to jolt people into reality. With the slow-motion train wreck that is occuring, it may be more like a frog in a pot of slowly heating water - they won’t know until they are cooked.
Who’s buying? Well, I have a friend who’s getting a divorce and is selling her 2mil house and both are looking for 900k houses in Valley Village. Also, there are “investors” bottom feeding.Well, not quite bottom, but feeding none the less. I’ve had my interest piqued on 2 REOs. One was bought quickly for 399k. It was a beaut 1928 charmer on the corner of crack and stabwound.
I’ve found another for 30% under the previous sale and I put an offer in Fri. (We need to settle in and can comfortably afford) However, There is another offer from an ‘investor’(there really is another offer) Don’t know why these A-holes are “investing”–doesn’t pencil out for positive cash-flow unless interest only. Sheesh!
i saw a nice 4/2 on a double lot. The other lot had an old, boarded up single story 2/1 basket case, but it looked salvagable from 50 feet away (big front yard).
Zoned commercial in a primarily residential area.. close to the tracks and freeway but on the “good” side of the tracks and no business of any sort on the block.. yet.
Priced about 25% below stupid-price. I’m gonna let it all ferment a bit longer.
What part of town?
25% seems to be ‘in the bag’!!! LOL
a fairly nice part of town, on the outer edge of residential expansion.. very quiet.. There’s little room for going further (there’s a freeway boundry a quarter mile away).
It used to be a light commercial area.. orchards before that.. much open space for lumber yards, warehousing, etc. which are long gone and replaced with homes.
In time, perhaps 10 years, it will be all residential zoned.
the flyer said $289 .. reduced from $350.
This is an informed group. Most ppl I talk to still dont even know that prices are falling, and expect to sell for 10% more then what they heard their neighbor got. For those that are aware that prices are falling, real estate agents are touting this as the bottom, and warn ppl to get in now before prices spike again. I go to open houses and talk to realtors sometimes. I mention topics like cap rates, historic rent v. mortgage or salary v. home price ratios, credit and liquidity crisis, asset back securtizations, etc., and they stare at me with a blank look. In fact, I never have met a real estate agent that understood the economics of the business they were in. They mainly just look for homes on the MLS, unlock the door, and comment on the pretty paint color and carpet (i.e., trivial nonsense). I ask them questions about their form documents, and they cannot give me an accurate answer. Not once have they ever offered any valuable insight, and when I edit the contract for them they say things like “Oh, I never really thought about that before good point.” They appear much more interested in plastic surgery and their new mercedes benz then in understanding real estate fundamentals. Yet most americans look up to these ppl as advisors about when to buy a home. It breaks my heart (politically correct term for pisses me the **** off).
“‘The direction that job creation has taken is making everybody nervous,’ Adibi said. ‘The main factor is job losses in construction and the mortgage industry. And the worst is not behind us. The job losses have intensified and will probably continue well into 2008.’”
- As usual, the ‘experts’ that report the construction employment numbers are probably off by about 18 months. I work in the construction trade and I can tell you that contractor’s are sidelined and some are out of business and the workforce has been ‘long gone’ for about a year now.
In residential, yes. Commercial and institutional is still going strong (for now at least).
“‘It was a disastrous situation,’ Rios said. ‘I just wanted to provide a proper home for my children.’”
I would respectfully submit that the most important element in providing a proper home for your children, is to BE THERE for them. You can’t do that if you’re working three jobs, and wife is working two, to pay a mortgage you can’t afford. This happy renter gets to spend plenty of unstressed quality time with his wife & kids, which makes “throwing money away on rent” seem like quite the bargain.
Testify, Sammy. I don’t think Rios knows what providing a proper home is. My family rented for the first 17 years of my life, LOL. I had a “proper home”. Oooh, was it ever proper and my backside knew it whenever I did something out of line.
So true Sammy. Home is where the family lives. It’s still home if it’s rented. It’s still called a house whether it is bought or rented. Buying for the kids - why would they know you buy or rent? Like the loons that buy the house for the kids and then commute 4 hours per day and never see them, nor can they participate in any of their activities.
What the hey, crazy, we may not agree on the guest worker issue, but I loves yer posts anyway.
Me too, palmy. That’s the beauty of old school civil discourse that has been lost in the last few years. It used to be you could be friends and respect people you didn’t agree with about every single issue. You could discuss and debate without disrespecting the other. People of opposite party affiliation, class, race or religion could enjoy each other and learn from each other. People looked for what they had in common instead of what made them different. Now it seems it’s turned into you’re with us or against us and every man for himself. I have a strong belief that the only hope for our world is self-honesty and a willingness to be open and evolve with new information (now called flip flopping) and raising the next generation to be better than us. My issue with the anti-illegal tone currently is I think it’s being drummed up to distract the public from the real bad guys and the bad acts at the top of finance and government that are really ruining our country. IMHO, if all illegals disappeared tomorrow all the financial and governmental shenanigans that are going on would continue to rot our country and society.
Thank you, are they crazy - you took the words out of my mouth.
I think of it as the ‘kick the dog’ mentality - there’s always going to be someone lower down the ladder than you, and when things get bad, they’re the first ones to get blamed.
If every single undocumented worker left tomorrow, we’d still be deep in $hit.
But, it makes good headlines (ie Lou Dobbs), and makes people feel less disenfranchised if they can point at another group of people and say ‘look,its all their fault, everything would be peachy-keen if it wasn’t for the (insert group of choice).’
Just human nature, I guess.
“Like the loons that buy the house for the kids and then commute 4 hours per day and never see them, nor can they participate in any of their activities.”
And it seems as though, because of that, they end up buying a bunch of things for their progeny as a form of ersatz love. Really sad, IMO. I’ve never been one for the whole “family values” line of argument, but it seems that we might need a bit of a crisis to get “back to basics” (i.e. remembering what really counts). I know that this sentiment is hackenyed, but the best things in life still aren’t things.
MrBubble
I love it when the homeowner has convinced themself that they are investing in a house so that they will have lots of money to spend on their children later (i.e. college, etc.) I wonder how they justify the HELOCs for the toys and the new car.
I guess little Timmy REALLY appreciates going to daycare in the Mercedes.
“I guess little Timmy REALLY appreciates going to daycare in the Mercedes.”
BWAHAHAHAHA! It’s always for the children, isn’t it?
OT but greater Missoula, MT off 15% in year to date sales from 2006. More here.
New stuff is just sitting there. No one’s talking about it here yet except me. Local realtors are big advertisers of course.
In my opinion, eastern WA, MT, ID, and WY are going to get absolutely throttled by price declines. They are notoriously low wage areas, and that fact remains. The carnage will last for years.
Bantering - I think this is tempered somewhat by the fact that it’s becoming easier to make a living sitting in front of your computer - low tax, low crime, mellow states like Montana are appealling. I honestly could see houses in Helena and Missoula being worth more than comparable houses in Miami (say, west downtown/Little Havana) or San Diego (say, North Park) in five years.
Believe it or not, but Montana is not a low-tax state. They have an income tax that rapidly increases with income to a top bracket of 6.9% at a taxable income of $14,500/yr.
Brother in Sun Valley, ID said it’s going down fast. He’s in high end construction and said it’s absolutely dead. Hailey and Ketchum are riddled with for sale signs.
“The carnage will last for years.”
I hope to see something like the 1980s again. I bought my first house in 1990 for 21,400, sold it for 74k in 2002 and bought this place we’re in now for 159k. Supposedly our place went up to 280+, now back down to 226 or about the local median. I was casually looking at buying a rental (should have kept the old house I guess) but it just never did add up by the old 1% rule. I couldn’t figure out how it could possibly make money at these prices. And now they’ve gone condo-crazy.
Guess a crash is not in my “interest” but I’m sick of all the development, all the McMansions and yeah all the pushy SUV drivers bearing down on me like in LA. I hope it all goes t!ts up for 10 years. We won’t be selling for 20 years anyway.
Carol - thanks for the link, I love Montana. Is Whitefish/Flathead County or the Helena area coming off yet at all?
Interesting to see Salinas ca referenced, I have been sort of following the market in nearby upscale Monterey area for a while hoping to retire there. Starting 5 yrs. ago I watched prices literally skyrocket for pos’s . The last year & a half I’ve seen a slow slide, still in the stratosphere, tho.’
I’d like to get more informed and would appreciate info. on how to track it. I’ve found zillow and check on line for listings. But how do I find number of times listed, reo’s, foreclosures, owner occupied, etc. And what’s up with listed same day and contract closed both on the same day that I’ve seen a few times?
The realtors @ open houses I’ve visted during the last yr & a half insist that Monetery is ’special’ and their buyer market is ‘different.’
All help much appreciated.
thx.
Any RE agent has access to that info.
If you qualify as a serious, capable buyer (or can fake it) find an agent who appreciates the value of such a buyer in this market.
A good agent will not only tell you all the things you want to know, s/he will also act as an extra set of eyes to find what you want.
Assuming you’re serious, decide on precisely what you’re looking for before engaging such a person. These guys don’t get paid for going on wild goose chases and will drop you in a heartbeat if they think you’re a flake.. Good agents are rare and valuable. Narrow things down and point them in a specific direction.
I lived in Monterey for about 3 years (2002-2005) and that place is “Special” I would love to go back to that area to retire. My wife thinks it is too cold and she sees Carmel Valley in the foothills as a better alternative. I watched the prices get from barely palatable to Your S#!ting me - they want 700,000 for that POS on that postage stamp lot. It is special but not that special. I can take a POS and do most of the work myself to make it livable and nice but the prices made it impossible to have anything left to fix it up. I think a good time to enter will be in about 5 years. after the recession has hit and have time to “trickle up” to the upper income folks it will again be at a price that is palatable but I don’t think it will ever be a good deal (economically). It is a great lifestyle. I still miss the farmers market in downtown every Tuesday :).
How cold does Monterey get? And another question for you Californians, at what point along the coast starting from San Diego and going north does the water become to cold to swim in without a wet suit?
Probably when you pass Malibu (Zuma Beach).
Thanks, wow, on the east coast, you can swim as far north as Cape Cod, even the North Shore of Mass, without a wetsuit, in the summer, for about 2 months. Three if you’re ambitious.
The ocean currents are heading north on the east coast and south on the west. So east coast gets caribbean water and west coast gets artic water.
It’s not really a swim in the ocean kind of place, kids playing in the surf - yes, lots of divers, some wetsuited surfers (a great white bit one 2-3 mos. ago.)
Shakes - love the downtown tues. market also. There are some pockets w/ pos on larger lots (4500-7500) and it’s those I’ve been following - a few re drifting into the 600,000s. Even my personal dream area - grove acres in pg are starting to list under 1 mil..
Beaches in Monterey are more like beaches of coastal Oregon, Washington. Chilly and windy. And everyday at about 4:00 the fog bank rolls in, you could set your watch to it. It is special and beautiful and unique on the peninsula (I lived there for three years) but it isn’t like sunny warm So Cal, it’s more like damp chilly San Francisco IMO.
But it is not a recession yet, and the US as a whole never experienced a housing decline before that.
I almost have more friends with realtor license than not, in some case both the hobby and the wife has one. And they buy two houses. Other than participating in the housing boom, their return on investment has been limited. I don’t know how to feel when they really run into trouble, but they seem to be enjoying their time.
Kind of O.T.-Need your opinion:
House came on the market Thursday night-$999,000 (Major Fixed Needs 400K to 500K work to make nice or $100K to make it livable)
By Friday afternoon, it had 3 offers (I believe the agent).
We went to look at it today and agent could have sold tickets to see this house.
House across the street sold for $1,695,000 but was all fixed up and 500 Sq. Ft. bigger.
I am thinking of offer $1,000,000.
Five years ago, these houses were going for $650,000.00.
What is your opinion.
Thanks in advance.
It’s pretty hard to comment on a property without knowing at least the city in question…
Two years hence they’ll be going for $650,000.00 (or less).
Forgot to mention the house across the street also has a pool.
This is in Glendale, CA
“Sonja Hastings, founder of Oakland firm that recruits mid- and senior-level sales professionals has noticed one effect of the housing slump, a surge of applications from out-of-work mortgage professionals.”
“‘We’re getting flooded with those resumes these days,’ she said. ‘Every day we get 20. We couldn’t find those people in 2001 and 2002, but they’re everywhere now.’”
Yeah, they’re everywhere now, like mold and warts. Mortgage professionals. Now there’s an oxymoron, like military intelligence.
A buddy of mine lasted about six months in that business during the bubble, he just couldn’t stomach it.
You’re right, Palmetto. No such thing as a “mortgage professional.” All the math I need to lend my own money is math I learned in high school. All the sales skills the “mortgage professionals” needed to lend other people’s money are the same sales skills you need in any retail business. Doesn’t qualify it as a “profession.”
Lol, az, I’m not meaning to diss ex-nnv, he probably did a good job for his customers, as I recall, he turned in his license or put it on hold at the height of the craziness. But I recall when a lot of firms were advertising for mortgage brokers, especially AmeriQuest and IndyMac. Hey, I miss seeing those dancing silhouettes on my computer screen (not!)
When anyone hears about the party in Rewood City tonight let us know!!!
It was fun. Only four of us showed up, but we all had bubble stories to trade and the same conclusion that others share here: Prices are nuts and have to come down. Kudos to those who sold at huge valuations, had the courage not to buy, or were able to stick with small mortgages and not submit to HELOC madness. This is one big bubble we are seeing, and it is interesting to discuss the many ways in which the markets have become distorted both here on the net and in person over food.
Yep. Sorry that I had to run in a rush, but when it’s business time, it’s business time. [Queue "Flight of the Conchords"]
I hope that I left enough cash, but if not, I will buy the next round. I hope that we got OT enough for Mr Big V who doesn’t like talking about RE ad nauseum (sp?). The rest of us could go on and on all night!
MrBubble
my apologies for not showing up, north bay traffic was horrendous last night and I was still stuck in equally bad SF traffic at 6PM….gave up on making it to Redwood City and instead dinner w/ a friend in SF…..heard an interesting bubble tidbit from her…the gift shops connected to California Missions are getting a lot of calls from FB’s seeking St. Joseph statues, they don’t stock the small ones as the church considers the burying of the statue and the associated avarice as sacrilege, so they only carry a few large hand carved models….but even those have been selling to desperate FB’s
I hate all the BS of job titles. So many people call themselves something they aren’t. When I told someone that I am a civil engineer. They asked if I was doing construction work. I understand the janitor needs to call himself an engineer, but come on.
Its become a running joke in the office, and the IT guy changed his job title on the intranet site. =)
“When I told someone that I am a civil engineer. They asked if I was doing construction work.”
My grandpap was a civil engineer, he did a lot of work on roads and bridges in NY back in the early half of the 20th century. Graduated from VA Tech, known as Polytech back then. He also did a lot of logistics work. Had a mind like a calculator when it came to math, civil engineers really have to know their math.
Does anyone remember when homemakers were trying to gain respect and started calling themselves “household engineers?” Why can’t people just do a great job and take pride in what they do - why does a title mean so much?
In fact, the british research paper brought up this crap claimed that home makers should make $700k a year.
CEOs, take that! Boohaha!
Come on. Hair stylist is a profession but engineer don’t need a license (nobody says you need a degree to work as an engineer), hey even a mover needs a license!
That is pretty enlightening to me, two guys come to help moving and the ‘professional’ mover (with the license and these guys work for) is probably ‘working’ at home (buying houses?) while his wife takes order from phone.
The 300% increase in SoCal home prices of the past decade was fueled by 1% Fed and Japanese central bank credit. It’s going away and so will most of those increases. Hang in there renters, its gonna be easy pickin’s by 2012 to 2016. Keep in mind Japanese home prices are STILL down 80% from the late 80s highs and with sub-1% rates even they won’t catch a falling knife and buy. You’ll know the bottom, not when some realtor-shill tells you, but when you see prices begin to rise again.
I expect a dollar carry trade as US investors invest out of a low yeilding dollar and into emerging market economies, so does that mean a future RE bubble in brazil?
OK - late night OT. Almost everyone I’ve talked to is saying they refuse to participate in the commercialism of the holidays this year. Our family opted out over 10 years ago. It’s sometimes difficult because I think people don’t actually believe you when you say you don’t exchange gifts, so they buy for you anyway (I re-gift to charity). Is anyone else hearing similar things? There is a story in the LAT, I think, about how Friday after Thanksgiving shopping is a social activity - WTF? Yeah, that day is a social activity for us, too - hang out, swim, nap, eat, play cards - we purposely avoid the stores.
Yes, my family back in MI is doing the same. The last time I remember similiar rumblings was mid-90’s
10 years ago we started doing a drawing on Thanksgiving so we only have to buy one gift, (excluding the kids of course)
My wife and I don’t exchange gifts. We just buy what we want when we need it. I send cash to my folks though. It’s been about 15 years for us too.