Caught Up In Something Bigger In Florida
The Orlando Sentinel reports from Florida. “Linda Rovetto is a property-title agent in west Orlandohasn’t taken a salary since the summer. She’s working fewer hours because there’s simply less business to handle. ‘We used to do anywhere from 13 to 20 [closings] a month,’ said Rovetto, who owns Florida Lakes Title & Closing in MetroWest. ‘In September, I did two.’”
“‘I sit here and I play solitaire’ on the office computer, she said. ‘Even the junk work that everyone hates to do is done.’”
“Cancellations have doubled or even tripled during the slump, Rovetto said. Some people change their minds about refinancing property; others can’t get approval for a mortgage.”
“Joe Ramirez used to have a dozen workers, but these days he works with a skeleton crew: his parents, his sister and himself. His company, One Stop Affordable Hurricane Shutters, has taken a hit from the housing slowdown.”
“‘I held on to my boys as long as I could, hoping there would be a turnaround,’ Ramirez said. ‘In reality, I should have let them go earlier.’”
The News Press. “Dennis Cantwell spent the Lee County housing boom putting up expensive houses in Bonita Springs — now he’s renovating them as the demand for new ones fades away.”
“‘Half our business is remodeling while a couple of years ago when things were going well, I’d say, ‘I don’t have time,’ Cantwell said.”
“The number of single-family-home permits issued by the county fell to 91 in October from 444 a year earlier. Builders are increasingly taking smaller jobs such as adding a garage or putting in tile.”
“The drought in home construction follows a two-year decline in sales prices and a corresponding piling up of unsold houses. As a result, the median price of a single-family home in Lee County has fallen to $231,600 in September, the latest month available, down 28 percent from an all-time high of $322,300 in December 2005, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Meanwhile, about 15,000 existing houses are for sale in the county, more than four times what there were at the height of the boom in 2005.”
“Kerry Johnson, who with her husband Mark were mainly building custom houses during the housing boom but that now ‘we’ve definitely picked up a lot of remodeling and additions and upgrades.’”
“They’re building one new house, she said, but ‘there’s not a big market for that.’”
“Spec homes, put up by a builder ‘on speculation’ that a buyer will materialize, were never a big part of their work and now have disappeared altogether, Kerry Johnson said. ‘With the buyer’s market, we can’t really afford to build spec homes.’”
“The situation isn’t limited to Southwest Florida, Johnson said — builders they know in Atlanta and Destin are reporting the same type of market.”
“Optimism was in the air in August 2005 when Pat Logue sold the company he’d built from the ground up to one of the country’s largest builders.”
“Logue had vaulted First Home Builders to the top of Lee County’s housing market with more than 5,000 sales in 2004 and on track to nearly double that when he signed the deal with Hovnanian Enterprises.”
“Hovnanian was itself a rising star on the national home-building scene, going on a buying spree of local builders as it moved up to No. 8 in the industry. Its stock was worth $4 billion. But even though Hovnanian’s bet in Lee County seemed like a sure thing, the seeds of Hovnanian’s near-destruction in Southwest Florida had already been sown.”
“Experts now say Hovnanian’s timing was bad, to say the least, although, at the time, it seemed the company was buying into one of the hottest real estate markets in the world.”
“‘Hovnanian was a little late to the party,’ said housing analyst Alex Barron. ‘They went from no exposure to having 25 percent of their market in Florida.’”
“Sure enough, the honeymoon only lasted four months. By December the median price of an existing home in the county had peaked and was poised for a steep slide. To make matters worse, much of First Home’s supercharged growth in 2005 had come in the form of thousands of houses bought by people hoping to resell them quickly for a profit.”
“Helping people get financing had always been a strength of First Home’s, and most of the buyers were borrowing close to 100 percent of the home’s value.”
“Huge numbers of homes being built by First Home ended up flooding the inexpensive-home market because so many buyers were investors who never intended to live there. Now, just more than two years after buying First Home for an undisclosed amount, Hovnanian is largely out of business in Lee County.”
“It has a skeleton crew of about 50 employees, down from nearly 1,200 during the boom. The company’s inventory of hundreds of lots is for sale. Two of the main lenders for First Homes construction loans are also in financial trouble.”
“Nationally, analysts say Hovnanian is not destitute but, like most big builders, clearly struggling to stay afloat as prices continue to fall and mortgage foreclosures dump existing homes back on the market. To cope, the national builders are selling off what they can at fire-sale prices.”
“Hovnanian was one of the first, with its weekend ‘Deal of the Century’ Sept. 16-17. It knocked prices down by as much as $300,000 and also offered a slew of financing incentives and upgrades. All the big builders are doing that to stay solvent, Barron said, but ‘it’s not sustainable.’”
“Now, he said, ‘Every week there’s somebody who’s having a sale’ and buyers are getting the message that it’s foolish to buy except when big discounts are offered. As a result, Barron said, ‘It only takes one builder to cut the prices for everyone else to have no sales.’”
“‘Ultimately, a lot of people made commitments on houses they didn’t intend to live in, and builders are having a lot of difficulty getting them to close,’ said Ann Thomas, who was senior VP of construction for First Home until she was laid off in February.”
“‘It’s really the First Home Builders division that’s hurt Hovnanian the most,’ said Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant based in Deerfield Beach. ‘Fort Myers/Cape Coral is the worst market in the country right now; it saw the most rapid inflation in prices and now it’s seeing the most rapid deflation. It just doesn’t have the industries that would attract new residents. People are either already here or retirees.’”
The News Journal. “For (some) in Volusia and Flagler counties who aren’t even trying to buy or sell a house, it may seem like a mystery why the housing slump is hurting them, too. People are losing their jobs, their retirement, their savings. It started with layoffs in construction and real estate and then trickled down to harm schoolteachers, secretaries and restaurant workers.”
“‘The gal who does my nails said her business is struggling,’ said Mary Spearman, president of Gulf Stream Mortgage in Port Orange. ‘If people cut back, that’s the kind of thing they cut out. I’ve talked to a lot of people and this has affected all types of businesses.’”
“To beleaguered homeowners trying to sell houses in Volusia or Flagler, it may seem as if outside forces have conspired against them. And they are right. This isn’t just about them. They are caught up in something bigger, with the same storm hitting the rest of the country and even the world. But there are reasons it has hit Florida particularly hard.”
“In Florida, it all started in 2002 and 2003 when, thanks to a growing number of retirees, low interest rates and the relative bargains across the state compared to South Florida, home prices started soaring like never before.”
“‘We saw a meteoric rise in prices,’ said John Adams, president of Adams-Cameron Realty.”
“Speculators…artificially pushed up the demand, leading to overbuilding, especially of condos. Market-watchers said a ‘correction’ was inevitable. In other words, at some point the supply would exceed the demand. What goes up, must come down. And, it might have stayed a minor storm were it not for the gale force winds blowing in from the financial markets.”
“‘There are two markets in play: the real estate market and the financial market,’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. ‘Both have ramifications now on a person’s 401(k).’”
“‘Wall Street sold bonds that were backed by mortgages,’ Snaith said. ‘All that means is that my mortgage is put together with your mortgage and sold under the umbrella of a bond. Remember in the Bailey Building and Loan model (from ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ with Jimmy Stewart), the banker made the loan and the borrower paid the bank. That’s not the way it works anymore. These loans get sold,’ Snaith said.”
The Sun Sentinel. “With so many homes in North Lauderdale in foreclosure, city leaders are seeking to help financially troubled homeowners.”
“They plan to create a new staff position, Neighborhood Improvement Coordinator, who will advise residents how to avoid foreclosure, guide those about to lose their homes and deal with the rash of abandoned properties in the city.”
“Lenders have repossessed at least 57 homes, the owners of 90 foreclosed homes are trying to sell them and at least 325 additional homeowners are in danger of losing their homes, he said.”
“‘Being a small municipality, what we’re observing and at this rapid rate, this will impact us a lot more and a lot faster’ than larger cities, Jesus Valdes, assistant director of community development.”
The Palm Beach Post. “With so many homes and condos sitting on the market month after month, their fresh-paint smell fading and owners’ costs rising, Realtors must find a way to sell.”
“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”
“In September, statewide sales by Realtors plunged 38 percent from the same month a year ago, the Florida Association of Realtors says. Prices were down 9 percent from 2006, which was a lousy year, too.”
“To restore their spirits, more than 30,000 members and guests of the National Association of Realtors arrived at the Venetian Resort Hotel Casino last week for their annual conference and expo. John Mike, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches, assesses the mood on opening day. ‘People are nervous and they are concerned about where things are going,’ he says. Real estate agents have been hurting financially, ‘including me,’ he says.”
“When the South Florida market was booming, Mike could sell up to 40 houses a year. Now it’s maybe half that. ‘It’s our livelihoods,’ he says. ‘I’m concerned about real estate offices, which are closing,” hurting not only Realtors, but secretaries, office managers and so many others.’”
The Herald Tribune. “There were 1,612 bankruptcy filings in Sarasota, Charlotte and Manatee counties in the 12 months ended Nov. 9, a whopping 160 percent increase from the 619 filings submitted during the same period a year ago.”
“Not surprisingly, the number of filings related to the downturn in the housing industry grew during the past year.”
“‘It goes right down the line from Realtors, to mortgage brokers, to home builders, to any company that supplies these businesses,’ said Rick Ellis, a bankruptcy attorney in Sarasota.”
“Bankruptcy attorneys say the impact of the real estate downturn is beginning to broaden. Retailers, who have seemingly nothing to do with real estate, are beginning to file, and that trend is likely to increase in the year ahead.”
“‘It’s spreading,’ said Sarasota attorney Timothy Gensmer. ‘With all the people being laid off, they don’t have the earnings they used to have, so they’re not spending as much.’”
“Anna Maria Island developers Steve Noriega and Robert Byrne filed for protection from $33 million in debt owed to bankers and investors after failing to deliver on various multifamily and single-family housing projects on Manatee’s barrier islands.”
“Warren Hickernell, who is involved in more than a dozen condo conversions around the region, submitted two Chapter 11 filings after banks attempted to seize properties through foreclosure.”
“Five companies Ashvin Srivastava took into bankruptcy between January and August, claiming assets of $2.7 million and debts of $5.1 million. Srivastava’s companies, which make and install decorative masonry, ran into problems after underpricing work for the developers of the 1350 Main condo tower in downtown Sarasota.”
“‘I thought it would be a showroom that would allow us to get more jobs,’ Srivastava said. ‘But I discovered that each job has to carry itself.’”
“After finishing 1350 Main, construction activity in Southwest Florida ground nearly to a halt. Though he says jobs in the area are nonexistent, Srivastava does not plan to shut down. His aim is to sell his fire-resistant construction building technique to homeowners in the San Diego area, who are rebuilding after the recent forest fires.”
“‘I’m on the rebound,’ Srivastava said. ‘My only sadness is that I depleted all of our family’s resources.’”
“‘Most of the people I see are contractors, subcontractors, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and people who invested in properties in order to flip them,’ said Gensmer, the Sarasota bankruptcy attorney who specializes in personal rather than business bankruptcies. ‘With the housing industry in a nosedive, that’s not surprising at all.’”
“Tampa bankruptcy attorney David Steen expects many more bankruptcies in the year ahead, and he things retailers will be hit the hardest. ‘I think there will be a lot more retail filings next year,’ Steen said. ‘A lot will hold on till Christmas or perhaps until the end of the season. Next summer will really tell the tale.’”
has FL busted down to 2003 pricing ?
2008 will equal 2004 in N VA
No, prices are more at the 2005 and 2006 levels and have not dropped enough to fall back to the 2003 levels.
I disagree. Depends where.
In Central Fl prices are down to 2003. Not so in South Fl.
Yet.
Per FAR stats - Florida prices are running about $220-230k median. They crossed that threshold on the way up (quickly) in April/May 2005.
2003 prices were $140k-170k. Florida’s got a ways to go down still to get there.
It’ll come, but not there yet.
Some areas on the west coast are down to prices of a few months earlier (Dec 2004 / Jan 2005), but still not down to 2003.
Again, I respectfully disagree. From ground view, I can tell you that central Fl prices are selling now at 140K-170K.
Whatever NAR reports.
I follow the sales from the different County Records offices.
Let me be specific. Lake and Volusia I follow closely.
North Palm Beach and Martin are pet hobbies.
The closest analogy I see today is that of a heart attack. Everything’s frozen.
I drive a lot in these counties(motorcycle)
Although not reported I see incredible things: MI homes bulldozed 3 two story “luxury” condos in Eustis. ( I saw this with my eyes, not second hand info, and they where completed and concrete construction.)
Land falling over 50% in Central Fl and close to 40% in Martin.
Some of the new sales reported are “inflated” they do not reflect what the buyer actually paid (you did pay closing costs in 2003 and did not even get a Harley Davidson.)
jbravo, I agree. In outlying areas of the Tampa Bay region like East Pasco, there are some properties down to 2000 prices, I know this because they are similar prices to what I saw in that area when I looked in 2000. But, even though that’s the price, there are other factors like taxes and insurance to consider, so I contend FL prices will have to fall below 2000 to get back to normal.
But they are on there way based on what I am seeing in regards to price reductions…with all this going on no wonder the FBI established a office in SFL recently..I expect that fraud will only continue to rise in the area…
with all this going on no wonder the FBI established a office in SFL recently..I expect that fraud will only continue to rise in the area…
I think the majority of the fraud is behind us for now, however there are still some pockets. What you do not hear about are the investigations by the FBI and state and local agencies and you won’t until a major arrest is made and the perp marched in front of the news cameras. The small cases involving individuals and small companies will go unnoticed by the public, yet these individuals will be charged. Once the word of arrests hits the street, new fraud cases will drop like a rock.
I can assure you, anyone who commited a mortgage or realestate criminal act will be caught in due time!
Look at the big picture and not just one or two areas and that is how you can determine price levels in Florida. I also agree that in neighborhoods, some houses have dropped to 2003 levels. However, I do not see this as representing Florida as a whole as the question was asked.
my old mans house in SW FL went for 03 price recently
had a dock and caged pool
caged pool?
To keep the swimmers in or the gators out?
To keep the skeeters out.
We used to call ours a “bug hut.” It’s like a human terrarium.
Quote: “Market-watchers said a ‘correction’ was inevitable.”
In other words, we here said a ‘correction’ was inevitable. Everyone else was saying “buy now or be forever priced out” and “real estate only goes up.”
I guess what the old saying is right. The truth goes through three stages. First, it is laughed at. Then it is violently opposed. Finally, it is accept as self-evident. We’re finally at the third stage.
Look for prices to fall to below $90/sq ft for a single family detached home in the next few years. Then we’ll be close to the bottom.
“Look for prices to fall to below $90/sq ft for a single family detached home in the next few years. Then we’ll be close to the bottom.”
I agree with that. From Orlando to the east coast, looks to me like the stuff that’s actually selling is going for around 2003-4 prices and steadily headed down. It’s only the wishing prices that are higher.
A friend of mine who is a RE insider in Winter Park told me that business is so bad, there’s a celebration when an agent gets a residential lease done.
In Miami area (according to Case-Schiller index) the prices are still on early-2006 level. In good areas they are 5%, at most 10% off the peak.
soup is now BIG MONEY
any tips on inferior goods producers ?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071119/earns_campbell.html
You are assuming that Americans are too lazy and stupid to make their own soup.
A correct assumption.
Humans were not meant to live in South Florida, except directly on the beach. Even 100 yards in, the humidity and the sun are unbearable for 8 months out of the year. You look up the weather forecast in mid-summer and it says 92 for the high in Ft. Lauderdale. You think, “Wow, 92’s not that bad, it’s 99 here in NC/SC/GA/TN”. Then you go down there and you realize that 92 actually feels like 135. You can’t go outside, the air conditioner runs constantly, etc. etc. etc. And that’s for 8 months straight. The iguanas and gators love it there, though. Believe it or not, a bald eagle was even nesting in one of the neighbor’s trees.
El A
If you ever need to torture a Californian, just immerse them into the climatic conditions you describe, or worse (Houston, is that you?)
They’ll spill the beans…
Sorry, but it ain’t that bad because there’s almost always a breeze. Once I “semi-retired” in Sarasota you would often find me at a golf course on a summer afternoon, when the crowds were gone and the greens fees were lower. I preferred to walk, which was easy because of the flat terrain.
I think this is a little melo-dramatic. We lived in Jupiter and now live in Parkland, FL. The great weather started the 2nd half of October. You get 1/2 Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, first half of May. 8 months of the year are amazing, 4 are hot, not the other way around.
How are the prices now in Parkland? I always thought that was one overpriced city of the Joneses…no offense..Boca was real money..Parkland was on credit…too many houses with “the furniture is being delivered” and never seemed to show up..
I am so happy every single day in South Florida. Especially in our “winter” time when it is simply beautiful out. We have yet to hit the “crispy” part though it seems to me our winters have been coming earlier, staying longer and feeling stronger.
My 93 year old grandmother grew up without airconditioning and never used it. Even in the summer! My own mother only got her central air a few years ago — true old Floridians living in true old Florida homes, they depend on A/C units in the bedrooms (where we all flocked). But their home has thow feet thick concrete walls with lots of windows and shading awnings.
I love being a Floridian.
Parkland is still overpriced but the prices have been steadly declining. The 4 bedroom market is right on the edge of breaking the 400K price. I received a listing yesterday for $404K — a first for me and I’ve been watching the market closely for three years.
This is bringing the big dogs down. What I used to see listed for over 1 million is now showing up in the 600-700K range.
And I am seeing several pre-foreclosure and short sale listings. One of them a gorgeous home in Heron Bay surrounded by homes that went for 800K a year or two ago.
Subs like Parkland Isles is showing signs of the enivitable price wars.
But there are many solid neighborhoods. And I prefer it to Boca or West Palm. Otherwise, there are still a lot of really nice areas just north of there which are now becoming quite possible for us. Shoot, we may even be able to pick up a beach pad before all is said and done.
I forgot to add that they are STILL BUILDING in Parkland!
I took photos recently to share with my family who has been following along with our saga. Unbelievably, they are still building …
Makes you wonder who would go to Disneyworld in the hot part of the year. It must be torture.
I also wonder what they do to keep bugs and other creepy crawlies under control? They must have their own insecticide factory onsiite.
“Makes you wonder who would go to Disneyworld in the hot part of the year. It must be torture.”
It is. I went there once in September during the late 1980s, to Epcot. A truly dismal experience. Couldn’t wait to get the snot out of there and go over to the cool waters of Juniper Springs. Ahhh! Now THAT was worth it.
Where do you get the unbearable for “8 months straight” nonsense?
Neither air nor heat ran last month in my house near Tampa.
The weather will be the best in the country until at least
May. And you can even go swimming in the Gulf most of that
time.
I would say that Tampa, and Florida in general, has the BEST
weather in the continental US 8 months out of the year. And I’ve lived in California and Ohio.
You’re right, I should have said 9 months straight. I lived there, that’s where I got that nonsense. It was 85 on New Years day 2007, and my family and I went swimming at Deerfield Beach. Look, I’m not trying to give Florida a bad rap, I actually liked it there, but would everyone please stop trying to say it’s not hot there? Geez, if it’s not hot there it’s not hot anywhere. For crying out loud, it’s hot in Michigan four months out of the year.
I hope it’s 85 on New years day again! Of course it was 60 degrees at night so unless you are a penquin, I have no idea why you would need to run the air non stop from October-May!
El A From first hand experience, visiting NC this summer from Florida, you are dead wrong! I needed to get back (I live inland 12 miles) to cool off! They have ozone days, never heard of an ozone day here. On ozone days you can’t go out due to the poor air quality. Is it hot here. Duh! But I’ll put up with three months of air conditioning and swimming rather than six -8months of heat and staying inside! When we lived in Nc, you didn’t see your neighbors out from late October until April. Every once in awhile you’d have a nice day. It’s the opposite here, every once in awhile you have a bad day that keeps you in doors.
OK, OK, I give up, you all win. It’s not hot in South Florida. I must just be hot-natured.
I totally agree. I think south Florida weather is sooo over rated. Plus your forgot the thunderstorms. Every afternoon in spring & summer at 2:00 (just when you have to pick the kids up from school) the sky turns black and the vicious lightning and torrential rain begins. Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade lead the nation in lightning deaths. Used to scare the heck outta me. I spent two years in Pembroke Pines (Broward Co, west of Ft. Lauderdale) and really hated it. No breeze. Just hot and sticky and smelly, garbage and even lawn clippings get really rank in that heat. Locals would tell me, “well, that’s the cost of living in paradise.” Paradise, are you kidding me? If this is paradise, y’all can have it! Moved in June, don’t miss it a bit.
Yep, it’s absolutely inhuman here.
Overrun with exotic pests of the human kind,spending their days whining and building monstrosity concrete anthills that aren’t appropriate for the area.
“His company, One Stop Affordable Hurricane Shutters, has taken a hit from the housing slowdown.”
This bothers me. Because of all the debt incurred for frivilous consumption, Americans and American businesses may not have the credit required for sound investments.
We’re facing an energy crisis, but homeowners will not be able to borrow against home equity to put solar cells on the roof and hurricane protection on the windows. Even if from an investment point of view these would pay off in lower electric bills and insurance premiums.
Plywood. You don’t need to spend $5,000 or more for hurricane shutters. For several hundred you can buy plywood and cover all the windows and doors. When they rival the electric company I will first in line. Solar Cells are not cheap enough yet for the investment. You are better off buying effecient light bulbs and conserving.
What amazes me is that houses will have FAKE shutters and STILL need to bolt plywood to protect the windows. ISTM that REAL shutters are better: dual purpose, no storage issues, and you’re not putting nail holes in your window frames.
Yes! But the HOA won’t let you put real shutters on your home.
See this, for instance:
http://www.ccfj.net/condoshutters.html
Well the two non-negotiables I gave my realtor in 1999 when I bought my house were no HOA and no shared walls. Of course I HAVE stupid, farby shutters that aren’t even the right SIZE to cover the windows even if they weren’t non-functional. But I don’t live in Florida either.
There are excellent roll-down shutters available that are made of thick extruded aluminum. They’re expensive and they require motors due to their weight, but they’ll keep everything out.
As for developers preventing shutter installation in Florida, show me a case where a developer has successfully prevented an *owner* from doing so, meaning where the owner went ahead and put them up (and they meet code) and the developer succeeded in getting an order to take them down.
The HOA can slap a fine on you, and foreclose on your property if you don’t pay! Google HOA “Hurricane Shutters”. It’ll make your head spin! And most of these rules are for Single Family Detached Homes.
To me, a SFDH with an HOA is worth $0. You couldn’t pay me to live in one.
But MOST AREAS in FLORIDA *mandate* HOAs for all new developments. The only way around it is old houses in existing neighborhoods (not a bad idea)! Or buy a big chunk of land in some unincorporated part of the county ouside of a development (what I did!).
“Logue had vaulted First Home Builders to the top of Lee County’s housing market with more than 5,000 sales in 2004 and on track to nearly double that when he signed the deal with Hovnanian Enterprises.”
This guy’s my hero. Wish I coulda done something like that. Hope he got all his money.
when locals sell to big out of towners , that’s the top,yo
hope he got cash and not Hovanian stock.
If he sold the stock in 2004 or 05, he probably did OK.
“Spec homes, put up by a builder ‘on speculation’ that a buyer will materialize, were never a big part of their work and now have disappeared altogether, Kerry Johnson said. ‘With the buyer’s market, we can’t really afford to build spec homes.’”
How do you like that? A builder that actually knows what they’re doing. In Florida, no less. Kerry, please give Centex a call, they really need you.
Spec homes, hell. Centex is building spec developments. Hey, why not go for it in a big way?
“Linda Rovetto is a property-title agent in west Orlando hasn’t taken a salary since the summer. She’s working fewer hours because there’s simply less business to handle. ‘We used to do anywhere from 13 to 20 [closings] a month,’ said Rovetto, who owns Florida Lakes Title & Closing in MetroWest. ‘In September, I did two.’”
“‘I sit here and I play solitaire’ on the office computer, she said. ‘Even the junk work that everyone hates to do is done.’”
A friend became a newly minted Realtor in late 1991, in the city of angles…
His 1st job as a Realtor, was to be an agent in a formerly hopping real estate office, in the San Fernando Valley.
There was just one Realtor and a husband-wife combo team left, out of about 20 Realtors, from a year earlier.
My friend told me that the husband-wife team that had been # 3 and #7 out of 20 Realtors previously, now she was doing the janitorial duties for the building, and he was always painting and refreshing the look of the office, as there was nothing to do in 1992, as far as real estate was concerned. Dead as a doornail.
He lasted a month or 2, before realizing being a Realtor wasn’t for him.
This housing bubble isn’t contained to a few spots, like it was in 1992.
It’s worldwide…
“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”
If I remember correctly, didn’t he say (just a few months ago) that $600K condos in SFL will be worth 1 million dollars or so in 2012?
I’m holding onto my boys as I read this!
“‘I held on to my boys as long as I could, hoping there would be a turnaround,’ Ramirez said. ‘In reality, I should have let them go earlier.’”
In 2008 and 2009, more and more of the sellers will say, “I held on to my POS house as long as possible hoping there would be a turn around. I couldn’t find a GF. In reality, I should have cut the price to let it go.”
Yes. I dont understand why ppl are renting or pulling their house off the market waiting for a turn around. Reduce the price 10% below the last sale and dump it quick. We are not even close to a bottom. Those that wait will lose another 30% in sales price, not to mention the carrying costs. Any real estate agent or other “professional” that tells you to wait is not acting in your best interests.
“After finishing 1350 Main, construction activity in Southwest Florida ground nearly to a halt. Though he says jobs in the area are nonexistent, Srivastava does not plan to shut down. His aim is to sell his fire-resistant construction building technique to homeowners in the San Diego area, who are rebuilding after the recent forest fires.”
I love it. A little “reverse Californicating”, Florida to Cali. Oh, the irony of it all. During the bubble, there were a number of San Diegoans who descended on places like Cape Coral as “investuhs”.
BTW, I heard another round of Santa Anas is on tap for Cali.
‘If people cut back, that’s the kind of thing they cut out. I’ve talked to a lot of people and this has affected all types of businesses.’”
Good thing Harley Davidson & Starmucks are going global…how do you say “Hog & Latte” in Chinese Arabic?
rotfl
However… Harley is finding their noisy bikes don’t sell as well oversees.
Starbucks? Doing well internationally, but I don’t think it will be enough when people have to pull back. That dang Duesenberry (sp?) effect is still forcing the economy to coast along. Soon people will retrench and realize $6 for a pound of gourmet coffee at the store goes a lot further than $6 at starbucks. Note: the coupons in the paper for gourmet coffee have been GREAT lately, so the actual price is dropping fast!
Got popcorn?
Neil
One of the Starbucks had to close down.
What is it with the MSN.. one day Starbucks closes a store, same day, Starbucks stocks go up…What is it? Up or problems? Sheesh. MSM is so full of it.
“When the South Florida market was booming, Mike could sell up to 40 houses a year. Now it’s maybe half that. ‘It’s our livelihoods,’ he says. ‘I’m concerned about real estate offices, which are closing,” hurting not only Realtors, but secretaries, office managers and so many others.’”
GAAAHHHH! I can’t stand it. “Half that” is normal business and apparently, businesses in Florida that survived well for decades on “half that” are taking a dump because they adjusted their “business model” (and lifestyles) to the phony boom.
The whining is annoying, but hiring more people during a boom is perfectly normal. Just as firing them is normal when the boom is over. As long as the real estate offices rented their space instead of buying it and didn’t sign some sort of stupid contract with the help guaranteeing them salaries even when their services weren’t needed (like US car companies), there shouldn’t be a problem with adjusting the business to leaner times.
Now, whether they can adjust their personal consumption down to ordinary levels is another story. And it will take a while for enough realtors to give up so that the ones that are left can live on the remaining “normal” level of business.
Even though it probably was scheduled well in advance, Las Vegas was not the right place for the NAR convention this year. It should have been in Ft. Myers. That way, each and every one of those attending could see firsthand the consequences of greed, fear, and brain-dead, utterly asinine cheerleading: the entire area has been turned into an undistinguished overpriced boring commodity. I can hardly say the phrases “Lee County” and “one of the “hottest real estate markets in the world” in the same sentence without laughing.
And yet another quote from Snaith. I propose a moratorium on newspapers calling him. It is especially ironic that he talks about George Bailey from “It’s a Wonderful Life,” because if Snaith lost everything, he’s kidding himself if he thinks the industry he spins for would bail him out at Christmastime.
“the entire area has been turned into an undistinguished overpriced boring commodity.”
You mean like Brandon, Riverview, Valrico and Ruskin?
..
Don’t leave out Lakeland, Winter Haven, Haines City, Davenport, Poinciana, Celebration, etc.
They flooded each and every Central Florida town with more McMansions than they will ever be able to occupy.
Unless the “Baby Boomers” or the “Rich Foreigners” show up en masse all at once to buy thousands of homes in the next six months.
But oh, more people are moving out of Florida than are moving in; and the local tax coffers are suffering from the huge drop in funding.
We have ourselves a real mess down here.
..
Les, correct me if I’m wrong, but with the exception of Poinciana and Celebration, all the places you mention actually have downtowns or concentrated centers of commerce, of sorts. Many of the areas here on the West Coast of FLA have regional designations, but no center. Just tracts and malls.
Palmetto — Lakeland, Winter Haven and Haines City all have downtowns, as you said, but I don’t know if Poinciana and Davenport are much more organized than Celebration, with its cutesy Truman Show. Seems to me they have strip centers rather than any sort of real “city,” but I haven’t been to the heart of those areas in a long time.
BTW, the son of a friend of mine moved out of his rental in Celebration. I suspect that there’s very little to celebrate there right now.
Las Vegas was not the right place for the NAR convention this year. It should have been in Ft. Myers.
If you’re looking for the consequences of greed, fear, and brain-dead asinine cheerleading, Vegas is just as good as Ft. Myers.
If you’re looking for the consequences of greed, fear, and brain-dead asinine cheerleading, Vegas is just as good as Ft. Myers.
Touchee……..
‘The gal who does my nails said her business is struggling’
That’s funny. My wife is out gettin’ her nails did right now. I guess that’s the new divide: renters walking about polished and shiny while FB’s chew ‘em off (maybe even without knowing).
I laughed and barfed a little here.
What the heck is it with ladies and nails? I can understand the hair, but the nails? Must be some atavistic tribal thing. I remember Dave Berg did a great cartoon about it years ago.
I mean, seriously, guys, do you care what a woman’s nails look like? I mean, as long as they’re not all dirty and full of fungus, does anyone care?
Unless they’re placed on a line between my eyes and her chest, I’d never notice anyways.
Palmy: The nails are the least of it. Botox, plastic surgery, hair extension, lipo. rooms full of clothes, shaping undergarments, shoes, $600 purses…….I remember a time when women resisted all that crap because they wanted to be taken seriously in business and wanted to be valued for something besides looks.
Yes, well its kinda sad that in our society — a single woman has to look young to get the ‘man’. Says a lot, doesn’t it? 50 yr. old single men want 35 yr. old single women……………:-(
I remember a time when women resisted all that crap because they wanted to be taken seriously in business and wanted to be valued for something besides looks.
Oddly enough, I don’t remember any such time. Attractive women have always capitalized on their sex appeal to get their way since time immemorial. I do recall those humorless femi-Nazis in college, most of whom looked like Ben Franklin, who carped about “the feminine mystique” and their refusal to conform with “the beauty myth.” I don’t think they were ever in any serious danger of being so “mythologized.” Most are still working behind the counter at Starbucks or Boston Chicken, while their hotter sisters are busily sleeping their way to the middle.
Too true, but when women start looking like RealDolls (life-sized, anatomically correct silicon dolls shipped with a turkey baster) then something sick is happening in society. Bravo’s reality show “The Real Housewives of Orange County” clearly takes its inspiration from RealDolls.
RealDolls are “manufactured” to order at a warehouse in San Marcos, Calif.
http://www.sdreader.com/php/cityshow.php?id=53
Women are concerned with what women think about their nails. It isn’t about guys’ reaction. Sort of like men buying cars, guns, plasma TVs, etc.
I agree — generally, guys don’t care at all. So they must do it to impress other women. Only reason I don’t gripe about it more is my wife is/was a nail-biter and at least it cured that. Somehow a voice from the clouds told her that she has to get her nails done more often than I get my hair cut, and I don’t like that reasoning.
I just about barfed a few years ago when I overheard one of the women at work sayit “I think I need to invest in my nails.”
They are looking for husbands.
You have to have a pretty p!ss-poor life to spend two hours a week of it sitting in a salon amidst all that moronic yapping. Moreover, it is impossible to competently play the piano, surf, ride horses, care for your orchards, or safely caress your babies if you maintain talons.
Going out in public with long painted fingernails is like wearing a sandwichboard that screams, “Office Manager.” (Yawn.)
Now toenails? That’s a different matter….
“gettin’ her nails did?”
“gettin’ her nails did?”
Yes, that’s correct; it’s ghetto culture wordplay. I should have said, “she’s f’in to get her nails did.” That would have been more accurate. It’s o.k…. if you don’t know then you don’t know.
Thanks. I should have caught on with the dropped “g” in “gettin’.” This is ghetto English? No wonder the world is going to hell. A teacher told me the other day that grammar is no longer taught her in elementary school (ironically called a GRAMMAR school), though I didn’t find out why.
I think we need to go back to the days of a school with a principal, vice principal, secretary (not “administrative assistant”), nurse, teachers, cooks, and a janitor–with real classes and real textbooks, and nothing else. Most of the money today is spent on “administrators” and “administrative assistants,” and pc textbooks riddled with historical revisions (a.k.a. falsifications), and computers, and cell phones, and anything else of absolutely no use in teaching kids how to read, write, speak, and think. So, of course, they can’t read, write, speak, or think. However, they can use their call phones as cameras to catch teachers yelling at them (to get them fired), and to call their parents and complain they’re being oppressed. And buy the time they’re old enough to buy real estate, they are well skilled in playing the victim if things don’t go as gloriously as planned.
Please forgive the typos. “cell phone” and “by the time” not “call phone” and “buy the time.”
Unfortunately ghetto culture is profitable and people seem to like it a lot, especially here in Florida. Why work through differences when you can just tell someone to “f-off?”
That seems to be “cooler.”
I will move anywhere in America if I could find a town that still values the public sphere. The closest I’ve ever come is Hoboken, NJ.
Great post, Incredulous. I completely agree. As to grammer not being taught in schools, that had actually begun when I wuz a pup. English grammar had been cut back on, in favor of diagramming sentences, which didn’t teach me a dang thing. Our French teacher assumed that we knew grammar and couldn’t understand why so many of her pupils didn’t “get it”. If you don’t learn grammar in your own language, it is that much more difficult to understand and learn other languages.
What do you mean “public sphere?”
Hi Palmetto.
Diagramming sentences was always a part of English classes, as far as I know. Actually, learning to diagram a sentence comes in handy when wading through some books where it isn’t clear what the authors are trying to say because their sentences apparently make no sense.
Have you noticed the number of “educators” who have doctorates in education and insist on being addressed “Dr. So and So” these days? This started in the ’80s, and then Bill Cosby got his doctorate in education, and began putting “Dr. William Cosby” on his television show credits, and now it’s an avalanche of pretension. Yet, education degrees are among the easiest to get. When I was in college, students failing in other majors were always advised to go into education.
“What do you mean “public sphere?””
All places public.
For example, when I lived in Hoboken, if you swore around children people would tell you to watch your mouth; if you littered someone would tell you to pick it up; if you cut a line everyone would tell you to go to the back; if you mistreated a shop employee someone would put you in your place; all of this sets an expectation that everyone is held to a high standard.
I want to live in a place where the people that value courtesy outnumber those that don’t and ultimately the effect is begetting: people care more and more about where they live and it’s a pleasant place to exist.
Florida is just the opposite of all of this, a race to the bottom embracing obscenity all the way.
Try Atlanta, where I was born. Manners still count for everything there, though not as much, and most people still dress up to go anywhere. The native women are beautiful, and dress like models. I remember seeing a talk show where the entire audience looked like Miss America contestants–which is why I assumed the theme of the show was, but it just turned that the show was broadcasting from Atlanta that day, and the audience was made up of Atlanta housewives. Atlanta women could have inspired the book and first movie “The Stepford Wives,” though they are anything but simpering fools. They are among the most educated and elegant women in America.
“I want to live in a place where the people that value courtesy outnumber those that don’t.”
Sounds like Scandinavia.
Grammer - we don’t need no stinkin grammer. Handwriting - what for? Manners - how dare you expect the little darlings to behave - let them be “normal” children. It all starts at home and parents are too buy to raise children. They have to guy houses “for the children” they have to work “for the children” they have to have their ME time so they can be better “for the children” ya diddy ya diddy….Set a f*ing example, do what’s right, teach them what’s right, stop whining and making excuses, stop teaching hate for anyone different, show them that you do right because it is right, not for some expected reward - I’ve got to stop or I’ll be like a spinning top.
A dumbed-down society is easier to scare thus easier to control. Fear makes the populace accept things like National IDs, gun control, police that look like something out of Mad Max, immunizations that don’t work and are full of mercury, and OK with being searched when going to a ballgame or shopping mall.
Check out this 8th grade graduation test and ask yourself if even college students could pass it today:
8th Grade Final Exam: Salina, KS, 1895
Grammar (Time, 1 hour)
1. Give nine rules for the use of capital letters.
2. Name the parts of speech and define those that have no modifications.
3. Define verse, stanza and paragraph.
4. What are the principal parts of a verb? Give principal parts of “lie,” “play,” and “run.”
5. Define case; Illustrate each case.
6. What is punctuation? Give rules for principal marks of punctuation.
7-10. Write a composition of about 150 words and show therein that you understand the practical use of the rules of grammar.
Arithmetic (Time, 1:25 hours)
1. Name and define the Fundamental Rules of Arithmetic.
2. A wagon box is 2 ft. deep, 10 feet long, and 3 ft. wide. How many bushels of wheat will it hold?
3. If a load of wheat weighs 3942 lbs., what is it worth at 50cts/bushel, deducting 1050 lbs. for tare?
4. District No 33 has a valuation of $35,000. What is the necessary levy to carry on a school seven months at $50 per month, and have $104 for incidentals?
5. Find the cost of 6720 lbs. coal at $6.00 per ton.
6. Find the interest of $512.60 for 8 months and 18 days at 7 percent.
7. What is the cost of 40 boards 12 inches wide and 16 ft. long at $20 per meter?
8. Find bank discount on $300 for 90 days (no grace) at 10 percent.
9. What is the cost of a square farm at $15 per acre, the distance of which is 640 rods?
10. Write a Bank Check, a Promissory Note, and a Receipt.
US History (Time, 45 minutes)
1. Give the epochs into which US History is divided.
2. Give an account of the discovery of America by Columbus.
3. Relate the causes and results of the Revolutionary War.
4. Show the territorial growth of the United States.
5. Tell what you can of the history of Kansas.
6. Describe three of the most prominent battles of the Rebellion.
7. Who were the following: Morse, Whitney, Fulton, Bell, Lincoln, Penn, and Howe?
8. Name events connected with the following dates: 1607, 1620, 1800, 1849, 1865.
Orthography (Time, 1 hour)
1. What is meant by the following: Alphabet, phonetic, orthography, etymology, syllabication.
2. What are elementary sounds? How classified?
3. What are the following, and give examples of each: Trigraph, subvocals, diphthong, cognate letters, linguals.
4. Give four substitutes for caret “u.”
5. Give two rules for spelling words with final ‘e.’ Name two exceptions under each rule.
6. Give two uses of silent letters in spelling. Illustrate each.
7. Define the following prefixes and use in connection with a word: bi, dis, mis, pre, semi, post, non, inter, mono, sup.
8. Mark diacritically and divide into syllables the following, and name the sign that indicates the sound: card, ball, mercy, sir, odd, cell, rise, blood, fare, last.
9. Use the following correctly in sentences: cite, site, sight, fane, fain, feign, vane, vain, vein, raze, raise, rays.
10. Write 10 words frequently mispronounced and indicate pronunciation by use of diacritical marks and by syllabication.
Geography (Time, 1 hour)
1. What is climate? Upon what does climate depend?
2. How do you account for the extremes of climate in Kansas?
3. Of what use are rivers? Of what use is the ocean?
4. Describe the mountains of North America.
5. Name and describe the following: Monrovia, Odessa, Denver, Manitoba, Hecla, Yukon, St. Helena, Juan Fernandez, Aspinwall and Orinoco.
6. Name and locate the principal trade centers of the U.S.
7. Name all the republics of Europe and give the capital of each.
8. Why is the Atlantic Coast colder than the Pacific in the same latitude?
9. Describe the process by which the water of the ocean returns to the sources of rivers.
10. Describe the movements of the earth. Give the inclination of the earth.
Notice that the exam took FIVE HOURS to complete. Gives the saying “he only had an 8th grade education” a whole new meaning. Also shows you how pathetic our education system has become.
Not all vaccines have mercury; it’s important to make sure your doctor uses quality vaccines, not the cheap stuff, and this goes for veterinary vaccines, too (site irritation caused by additives have been linked to some cancers). And most vaccines do work; you can find plenty of evidence on the U.N. and CDC web sites. The potential danger of smallpox or polio or rabies (a common human problem in South America) is infinitely higher than that posed by the vaccines used to prevent them.
However, you are correct about education. I can not pass these tests, and I grew up in a family where everyone, from my grandparents down, had, or has, one or more university degrees. The reason classic literature impresses us so much is because it was written by talented people who were incredibly LITERATE. Classical music composers had to actually read and write music, and understand the principles of music (a science unto itself). Today, any fool with a guitar and willing to scream or pretend to sing can become a “superstar,” as evidenced by last night’s horrifying music awards.
Earlier this year Bush vetoed the bill that would ban mercury in vaccines. You can google “Bush vetoes mercury ban” for url. Vaccinations have never been proven that they work. Flu shots are a farce and have 4X the mercury they had 5 years ago. More and more elderly are being dianosed with Alzheimer’s and more and more children are autistic. Put on your tin foil hat and connect the dots. The gubmt does not like you.
Hey Incred: At daughter’s college music is part of program and ALL must sing (classical) and read music by end of freshman year or they’re out, like ever other subject. They learn from great books only - no textbooks. What’s most amazing is they all love it - love the work & love the learning. There is hope.
Remember, in 1895 the average person did NOT complete 8th grade. This test was passed by the elite, as the others had to quit school to work on the farm. Nonetheless its a sad commentary on the modern state of education.
Here’s the NEW test:
City of Los Angeles
High School Math Proficiency Exam
Name: _______________________
Gang: _______________________
1. Dwayne has an AK47 with a 30 round clip. If he misses 6 out of 10 shots and shoots 13 times at each drive by shooting, how many drive by shootings can he attempt before he has to reload?
2. If Jose has two ounces of cocaine and he sells an 8 ball to Jackson for $320 and 2 grams to Billy for $85 per gram, what is the street value of the balance of the cocaine if he doesn’t cut it?
3. Rufus is pimping for three girls. If the price is $65 for each trick, how many tricks will each girl have to turn so Rufus can pay for his $800 per day crack habit?
4. Jarome wants to cut his 1/2 pound of Heroin to make 20% more profit. How many ounces of cut will he need?
5. Willie gets $200 for stealing a BMW, $50 for a Chevy and $100 for a 4×4. If he has stolen 2 BMW’s and 3 4×4’s, how many Chevy’s will he have to steal to make $800?
lol. and i bet the hoppers could pass this exam with flying colors and no calculator needed.
Muggy, try Texas. “Yes, ma’am” and “No, sir” are very real here. On Halloween night I was pleasantly surprised by the politeness of the kids, especially the teenagers. They still celebrate Christmas, not some generic “holidays.” God & country are treated with respect and pride. We LOVE it, especially after two hellish years in south Florida where I could not get over the rudeness of that population.
Thank you. I’ve become so discouraged by the kids in Florida, this is nice information. And I’m not even Christian (no, I’m not Jewish or Muslim, either). Florida is like some institution for the criminally insane.
:Comment by Magic Kat
2007-11-19 12:05:47
Earlier this year Bush vetoed the bill that would ban mercury in vaccines. You can google “Bush vetoes mercury ban” for url. Vaccinations have never been proven that they work. Flu shots are a farce and have 4X the mercury they had 5 years ago”
Bush isn’t too bright, but vaccinations HAVE been proven to work, or you’d be crippled with polio right now. As someone who has spent his entire life taking care of animals, I can tell you that vaccinations are one of the greatests advances in history, and not getting vaccinated against known afflictions is the dumbest and most dangerous thing one can do. Last week, I had to be present for the euthanasia of a wonderful animal that I’d known for years (adopted by neighbors) with feline AIDS, which she had apparently contacted from a bite, and it made me heartsick. I’m still upset. If stupid humans would vaccinate their animals and take reasonable precautions, such horrifying events would not happen.
Parents who do not vaccinate their children against crippling or fatal diseases should be thrown into jail. The potential side effects of vaccinations are no excuse. Incidentally, kids being diagnosed with autism or hyperactivity has nothing to do with vaccinations, and everything to do with marketing. Drug companies can invent afflictions faster than we can read about them, and pc schools that fall for their hooey should be shut down. No child needs drugs for hyperactivity or autism or the new disease of the decade “bipolar disorder.” These are inventions that create billions of dollars for drug companies, and let stupid school teachers and admininstrators off the hook.
Vaccinate your human and animal children, but make sure the vaccines are high quality and do not contain toxins or irritants. Vaccinate yourself if you are at risk of something terrible. I have never had a flu shot, but then, I have only had the flu once, when I was nine years old. These are minimal steps to preventing horrible events. You will not get out of this word alive, but someone–human or animal–needs you, and fulfilling your purpose is not a joke.
Oddly enough, we received a number of Katrina refugees from NOleans, and they were extremely polite and deferential. It was very refreshing to hear people speak with such civility (until, of course, they were variously arrested and hauled away).
WT Economist
RE: commercial- numbers don’t seem as looney as residential
? were about 15 times here in N VA
Well, NVA is an exception. Commerical real estate IS loony there.
MSM show had a 10 year down prediction on RE
dang
“‘There are two markets in play: the real estate market and the financial market,’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. ‘Both have ramifications now on a person’s 401(k).’”
Here comes genius again. I guess my blood pressure must not be high enuf. Thanks a pantload, Ben. (LOL)
Heard this on NPR this morning:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=16411610
Builder says everything’s fine for him in OH
When I heard that story, I kept saying “It’s Different Here!” to the radio. I was trying to goad the builder into saying the same thing. But, for some reason, he didn’t respond to my subliminal suggestion.
He did say, “the problem is that people here are listening to the media about the collapse on the coasts, and we don’t have that, people aren’t losing their houses and we have strong economy”.
Basically, that it’s different there. Because of Caterpillar and all.
The median price of a home in Peoria, IL is 96k and the median income is 41k. Some areas actually did avoid the bubble.
http://www.homeinsight.com/home-value/IL/peoria.asp
But Peoria?
Every chart I’ve seen of Peoria home prices over the last 6 years has been flat.
“Peoria”?
LOl
just had to laugh.
I just knew he was going to say it, but yeah he said the same thing. I thought Caterpillar was having some layoffs?
Only thing going for OH is they didn’t really have the big upswing. Housing is unbelievably cheaper there as is everything else. Wages aren’t as high as the coasts, but with everything being so much cheaper, you don’t need as high a wage to be comfortable. I hear the people there are very nice and much more real, also. Yes, there’s problems in the inner city - just like any center of poverty and decline. People need to really run the numbers before they make assumptions about the wage/costs ratio.
Should’ve said IL, sorry.
“Tampa bankruptcy attorney David Steen expects many more bankruptcies in the year ahead, and he things retailers will be hit the hardest. ‘I think there will be a lot more retail filings next year,’ Steen said. ‘A lot will hold on till Christmas or perhaps until the end of the season. Next summer will really tell the tale.’”
So will this winter tell the tale in FL. If all those “rich furriners” don’t buy, then the summer will REALLY be abysmal. Florida has a little different selling season than other parts of the country, in that a good deal of selling takes place during “season”, generally November through April. If “season” is miserable, the rest of the year is beyond abysmal.
Correction. Season usually starts on Thanksgiving and goes through Easter.
Tourist season is winter in FL, but real estate season is still summer. At least sales typically go up in summer anyhow, per the FAR stats.
It makes sense actually. Probably how it works is - the furreners (including New Yorkers) come down for the winter - December thru May. They get a hankering to buy something along about February, when their friends up north have blizzards, and they’re sitting by the pool with a cocktail. They start getting serious about April/May, and finally make a deal in May/June. Closing ends up being in July/August.
So you really don’t know how the “real estate season” does in Florida until about August/September. The past two have been abysmal BTW; thus the new second-leg-down in prices the last couple of months.
“At least sales typically go up in summer anyhow, per the FAR stats.”
I stand corrected, then. The winter sales phenomenon must be limited to a small part of this area, the Sun City Center area, where they tend to get a lot of retirees buying. Anecdotally, anyway. It’s also when we see the most estate sales. Not that retirees cork off only in the winter, but some of the folks who run the estate sales hate doing it in the summer and try to hold the heirs off, if they can, until fall.
You Palmetto I have been laughing at the idea of foreigners keeping the market steady in Florida for a couple years or so but with the dollar in the tank it really might happen. I was watching one of the news channels the other day and they were showing these crazy Europeans buying truckloads of junk at malls and buying designer suitcases to send it all back home. When humans perceive massive deals they seem to consume in a frenzied way. With the prices in SFL down 20% or so and then you add the huge difference in currency there may be some serious buying this winter.
“there may be some serious buying this winter.”
You might be right, that’s why I said this winter will really tell the tale. Here are some factors I think may militate against the “rich furriner” buying homes theory:
1) If many of the foreigners who could buy, already did. I gathered this from some of dimedropped’s posts. Devaluation of the dollar against one’s own currency doesn’t mean much, if one doesn’t have much of one’s own currency to begin with.
2) Foreigners being pissed about all the crap they have to go through just to visit here.
3) For those who do get here, no interest in homes, just buying stuff at stores and malls cheap.
4) A “throw the bums under the bus” attitude toward the US, being encouraged by the devaluation of the dollar and global sentiment. Who wants to live in a dying country, anyway? Most foreigners have been there, done that.
5) Dollar may be being devalued. I’ve heard the euro is next.
Oh, forgot to mention the taxes and insurance, big one. Also, while foreign buying of RE might be good for sellers, it will be hell in condo and HOAs, if the buyers get a case of the “shorts” and don’t pay the fees.
I don’t know the European mind very well myself. I know they like to trash us but seem to love everything we produce. If the Europeans found a condo on the ocean in SFl which might have been originally 400-500 then beat them down to 150 or so then add the currency difference to what 1/2 price? Then you are talking 75,000 for a condo on the water in SFL? I am not really convinced of this idea myself but it has been in the back of my mind for the past several weeks.
BP, I can’t really predict the European mindset myself. All I can say is, the owner of one antique shop I know says the European and Asian antiques are flying off the shelves, the American stuff, not so much. Until a year or so ago, the opposite was true. Those who watch the Antiques Roadshow will note that oddly, American antique furniture has been way more highly valued in the US in recent years than European or Asian.
As to Florida, it may be that the state will be bypassed in favor of other states like AZ, due to taxes and insurance. At least, the Canadians are feeling that way.
BP, as a european, I’ll answer that question. First, there are some europeans who might trash the US but there are many, many more who do not. The vast majority in fact.
There is little doubt that many europeans thought the US had had it too easy for too long and were spoilt with their abundant supply of cheap food, cheap housing, cheap gasoline, etc, and there are many europeans who think the USA is a country based on greed but, too be truthful, over the past 20 years, europeans have become just as greedy.
Very, very, very few (unlike Americans) believe, for instance, that the USA invaded Iraq to bring “Freedom and Democracy” to the middle east. Most, the vast majority, believe that the US invaded Iraq because it wants the oil under Iraq (because they wasted their own reserves) and the majority were stunned when the US elected George Bush to the office of President because most think (including me) his true vocation should have been dog catcher in a small town in the middle west. A fact which is becoming more apparent with every passing day.
However, when it comes to europeans buying up masses of defaulted US real estate, I shouldn’t worry too much. Europe is in as much trouble as the US financially and most europeans are having trouble making ends meet just like americans. I hear it all the time from my friends when I call the UK.
However, many of the Brits (for instance) cashed in on the ridiculous rise in property prices (London property prices are a joke) and moved out of the UK. In fact, more Brits left the UK than new immigrants arriving in the last few years. They bought (mostly retired) to places like Spain, France, Italy, Greece and some have moved to Bulgaria (cheap). Others have gone to Australia and New Zealand and quite a few to the US. Florida being the top destination. So, all they did was cash in their over-priced UK property and buy the over-priced US property. Property in Spain, as a result, went into a massive bubble and is now collapsing. Of course, they also exchanged the bad weather, over populated Brit cities brimming with immigrants they don’t like and don’t understand like muslims wearing yashmaks who seem determined to change the western culture to a muslim culture by sheer weight of numbers, and who have also turned many of the UK inner cities into toilets.
So, fear not. It isn’t the europeans who will be buying US property. If anyone buys, it will be asians and some from the middle east who have skimmed (stolen) vast amounts of US tax payer dollars which Bush has poured into Iraq and other middle east countries. Which is one reason why the Iraqi politicians “do nothing”. Why fix things and destroy the “gift which keeps on giving.” The US tax payer.
What did most Brits (and Europeans) think of Ronald Reagan?
I have a friend from Ireland who lives here now. (atl) Anyhow, he just got back from over there this summer and says that everything is just ridiculously expensive now, even in terms of the Euro. He told me he could never afford to live there doing what he does here, bartender. He’s probably in his late twenties and says that all of his friends at home are grumbling about the cost of flats now. Don’t remember exactly which city he’s from.
‘…George Bush to the office of President because most think (including me) his true vocation should have been dog catcher in a small town in the middle west. A fact which is becoming more apparent with every passing day.’
Absolutely NOT. The job of dog catcher requires brains and an ability to strategize.
I know ’cause one of my friends dads was dog catcher where I grew up. He also captured stray cattle and goats and stuff. Goats are waaaaay cunning and tricky, in my experience. Plus, they can levitate.
That idjit Bush could NEVER be a decent dog catcher. He couldn’t catch a cold, even with a large basket and a net.
nice summary, Mike.
( but Mike, could you at least make a typo or syntax error sometime in yer postings? You are raising the IQ curve here on the blog too high & I cant re-certify to stay on just my good looks .. ) !!
Oly girl: That would be strategery. The decider said so. Talk about grammer and butchering the English language!
BP
The only problem with foreigners buying back goods made in their own countries, for cheaper than they can at home, is…
It’s a one shot deal.
High end retailers are very cognizant of the price of their wares, worldwide.
The next batch of Hermes scarves, to come from “Old Europe”, will be priced according to true worldwide market demand, not based upon our demand, or lack of.
And we aren’t exactly buying much, lately.
People are spending their money on flights.
Or not. But Dang, the planes are F-U-L-L.
Seriously full to capacity.
I suspect the airplanes seem full because the airlines are running fewer flights. They have software that yields better seats per flight. I liked it better in the old days when you could time which flight to book based on getting some extra elbow room…
“‘There are two markets in play: the real estate market and the financial market,’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. ‘Both have ramifications now on a person’s 401(k).’”
It sounds like Snaithsayer is telling people to pull the ripcord on their 401(k)’s, and get out?
Oh, plenty have already pulled the cord on that reserve chute. The myth of the wonderous 401k balance is akin to the myth of the busload of out of state housebuyers.
Next thing I know, you’re gonna tell me the tooth fairy isn’t real, either…
What?!
Oh, god! NOOOOOoooooOOOOOO!
And you’ll tell me adults don’t get laid?
IIRC most people cash it out (with the 40% tax hit) whenever they change jobs! Sounds idiotic to me, but that’s typical behavior
David CANTWELL? CANT’DO’WELL in RE ..hahahah !!
“‘There are two markets in play: the real estate market and the financial market,’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. ‘Both have ramifications now on a person’s 401(k).’”
There are no ramifications if you invested wisely and stayed away from the bubble funds.
‘People are nervous and they are concerned about where things are going,’ he says. Real estate agents have been hurting financially, ‘including me,’ he says.”
That is the price paid for excess, greed and the desire to fool the public into believing home prices will always keep climbing.
Some more hard headed sellers and likely lifelong wage slaves:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071118/BUSINESS06/711180610/1118/PRINT
I have a friend that is a very well known real estate attorney in Ann Arbor. When I saw him at a cocktail party, I asked how business was. His response was “I’m not doing anything at all.” For years, the Ann Arbor mantra was “It’s different here.” (because of the University of Michigan and the 3% unemployment rate in Washtenaw County.
Today’s Master Of The Obvious (MOTO)
“While home sales have dropped nationwide, they have plummeted in Florida, which is ‘ground zero for the housing market slump,’ said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.”
It sounds out of character for Yun to write off an entire RE market like FL by making such an absolute statement like this. If I were to guess, I think a thorough linguistic analysis of recent NAR statements couldn’t help but reveal an extreme state of panic and disarray.
“‘Most of the people I see are contractors, subcontractors, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and people who invested in properties in order to flip them,’
I talked to one of my attorney friends in Tampa over the weekend and asked him who his number one clients were from the housing mess. He responded that he has had very few “end users” who purchased homes filing for bankrupcy. Most of his clients were realtors who got trapped by owning too many properties they were trying to flip.
One interesting point he made, was his mention that it appeared to him that many of the realtors and mortgage brokers were involved in creating a supply and demand problem in the local market so they could line their own pockets.
Well, duh!
Fuzzy: As I recall from the last bubble working bankruptcies, you only get to take a homestead exemption on a primary residence. I think the flippers and investors have to treat the extraneous properties they bought as business assets and debts. I know many lied and said they were primary residences. They should have had to get business loans and provide a business plan and pay the going interest rates on those types of loans. Can one get a no doc, sub prime, or ARM business loan?
Can one get a no doc, sub prime, or ARM business loan?
You are correct on the homestead side and most tax collectors now have a fraud unit checking to make sure the home is a primary residence. It’s just a matter of time and they will be caught.
In the current market, very few could qualify for any of the loans you mentioned and those stuck with a house investment that is declining in value have no chance at all. In fact most banks today realize most investors in Florida are having a tough time just covering the loan costs by renting the property and therefore would not qualify for a business loan.
“One interesting point he made, was his mention that it appeared to him that many of the realtors and mortgage brokers were involved in creating a supply and demand problem in the local market so they could line their own pockets. ”
Which is why I have said in the past that the NAR should be suide under the RICCO statues as being a CRIMINAL RACKETEERING ORGANIZATION….National Association of Racketeers.
When the supply of houses started to fall, as they forced prices up, the took the available inventory off the market, thereby creating false demand and starting a “panic”. Now they are trying to hold properties off the market so they can unload their own.
They are CROOKS. They have interfered with the FRee market for personal gain.
Which is why I have said in the past that the NAR should be suide under the RICCO statues as being a CRIMINAL RACKETEERING ORGANIZATION….National Association of Racketeers.
They don’t meet the “probable cause” for the RICO act, but they do qualify for a conflict of business or violation of state ethic laws as well as certain realestate laws in Florida. Most of those caught lose their license.
“Experts now say Hovnanian’s timing was bad, to say the least….”
What the heck was Ara thinking? Florida’s housing market peaked in Aug. 2005. Had he been reading this blog back then, he’d know.
These guys make millions for doing dumb $hit. Unbelievable! Then they claim “100 year flood” or some other crap when they get it wrong.
According to John Mike of the Realtors Association of Palm Beaches, “Realtors have been hurt financially, as well as me.” Okay, I owned a condo in West Hollywood, Ca. which was valued at $250,000 in 1998. That condo is now listed at $725,000. 3 x the price of 7 years ago. I also owned a townhouse in Northridge, Ca. at the same time. Value in 1998 was $175,000. Value now is $450,000. Prices have hardly dropped in West Hollywood, which is mainly a gay community (I’m not gay by the way - not that there’s anything wrong with that) and will probably be one of the areas which take less of a financial hit. Northridge will take a hit. If anyone is interested in knowing why the difference in those 2 places I’ll post the reasons.
However, I digress. That’s not the point of this post. My point is, how is it that realtorwhores are hurting financially. They had 7 very big fat years where their commissions doubled along with the transactions they turned over, trebled and is some places quadrupled over that period in areas like California, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, New York, etc.
My owen feelings are that realtorwhores commissions should be no more than 2%. I know one thing, if I ever buy property again (doubtful) if I use the services of a realtorwhore, they ain’t getting no 6% - but as to them being hurt financially at the moment? Boo-hoo. I don’t think I’ll shed any tears.
My point is, how is it that realtorwhores are hurting financially.
Answer: They thought they had found the Golden Goose and the eggs would just keep coming……they were “entitled” to their new-found lifestyle and now………well, you know.
“‘It’s spreading,’ said Sarasota attorney Timothy Gensmer.”
One of my first post on this blog was an exit warning. Sadly, the euphoria was overwhelming.
Sorry to plug Kunstler again, but I’d like to see a weekend discussion regarding housing, peak oil and the future of development and growth patterns.
http://kunstler.com/mags_diary22.html
I’m sufficiently freaked out enough that I am considering something rural where I can grow some of my food, if not all of it.
Ben, I’m sorry. This was intended for bits bucket.
Muggy, Manatee County has a farm cooperative where people can buy in and get deliveries of what’s fresh at any given time. Also, some cities like Youngstown are letting residents grow fruits and veggies on plots of gov owned land.
Overall, however, as discussed yesterday, I think one has to choose between urban or close-in to urban living, or rural. Suburbia will be toast. It would depend on one’s lifestyle and what they’re willing to handle. Me, I used to want to have a little farm. But I don’t know squat about it and probably couldn’t handle it. A house in a smaller town within walking distance of the downtown would make sense to me, with a food and water storage plan. Say hello to cisterns in some areas.
Muggy,
Theoildrum.com is an excellent source of peak oil information, compiled by oil industry insiders. Here is an interesting recent article about off-grid living during a liquid fuels crisis, such as the one we are now in the early stages of. It’s very hard to know how to prepare, other than by scaling back and storing food and water.
Off the Grid in a Liquid Fuel Crisis?
I have no problem with you plugging him; I read his stuff every Monday and have seen him speak in person. I don’t agree with everything he writes, but I do agree that American suburbs and exurbs, especially those created in the past twenty years, are one of the greatest malinvestments of resources that the world has ever seen.
“‘Being a small municipality, what we’re observing and at this rapid rate, this will impact us a lot more and a lot faster’ than larger cities, Jesus Valdes, assistant director of community development.”
Oh, I think there’ll be PLENTY of misery to go alllll arouuuuuunnnd.
If it reaches the point where state and fed gov’ts have to step in to provide basic services to a lot of those small munis out there - the drain will make the war spending look like a take out bill.
why do they have one of these ?
assistant director of community development.”
maybe local govs should go back to a base year of say 1950 or 1913
and provide those “services”
Amen to that.
One aspect of the Florida market that is overlooked is the tremendous infusion of cash due to the hurricanes in 04′. This too artificially gave a boost to the economy. The overbuilding coupled with the billions dropped into our economy made it all too rosey. This money began to burn off in late 2006 as FEMA shut off the faucet.
Basically we had two boom features, one man made and the other mana from heaven.
didn’t think about that one, dime. Good observation.
Palmetto-pls forward your email…mine jconnor3@gmail.com…tx
I agree with that dimedropped. I moved to central Florida ( Marion County) right after the Hurricanes. Here property just started going up right after the Hurricanes , People moving here from the coast with insurance checks. Then everything else just kept propelling it. I think the hurricanes were the starting point.
“With so many homes in North Lauderdale in foreclosure, city leaders are seeking to help financially troubled homeowners. They plan to create a new staff position, Neighborhood Improvement Coordinator, who will advise residents . . . ”
Oh GREAT, just GREAT !! ANOTHER govt position added to the already overtaxed citizen supported local populace.
And of course, this minor sounding slot will just HAVE to have an assistant in a year, to help with the work load. Then a full time staff. With benefits. And pensions. Oh yes, add some govt cars to the positions (cant be driving around on your OWN car ‘helping’ the poor uninformed citizens, dontcha know)?!
And after a few years go by & the need for this person/dept has dwindled, do you think the position/dept will be cut? HELL NO!! The job duties will just morph into some other designated duties, like ” community (insert bleeding heart phrase here)”.
JEZZEZ H CHRIST, govt just WILL NOT STOP ADDING TO ITSELF. EVER !! If I lived in the area I would raise bloody hell about this. But for all the good it would do . .. this is just a knee-jerk reaction to the TEMPORARY situation so when the voters scream ” WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT THIS MESS ” ?!? the politicos can point out the creation of this costly but useless idea to cover their azz.
Congratulations, Aquis, you have just successfully and unintentionally defined the “Peter Principle”!
This is exactly what will happen, and there is plenty of empirical evidence that it does indeed happen.