Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For November 23, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
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Remember that TV show “Jehrico” on CBS about the US government planning a nuke strike on the US?
It appears that it was not so fictional after all…
http://www.thiscantbehappening.net/?q=node/69
A lot of the stuff that appears in movies and TV shows is what is known as “predictive programming.” It prepares you mentally for what is to come so that when it does happen, it doesn’t seem so drastic or beyond belief. A good example was the Bruce Willis/Denzel Washington film “The Siege” which was preparing us for Muslims being made scapegoats and for a plan to implement martial law in major American cities.
When the Soviet Union fell, the real worry for the West of us, was their nukes…
Ironic if it turns out our elected government is the real worry, eh?
Watch Pu239 on HBO On Demand or rent it. I won’t spoil the plot, but it is set in Russia after the fall. It involves nuclear materials. You’ll not sleep well.
Roidy
thanks, badger.
uh, on second thought, not so much.
Since I am helpless to do anything about it, I would probably be better off not knowing.
Puuuuulease! Enough with the conspiracy theories.
To simplify: Which is the most likely hypothesis?
a) A conspiracy involving X-number of Air Force personnel intentionally loaded obsolete nukes, for some kind of nefarious purpose? or
b) Someone in the bomb-handling department made an error, and nobody farther down the chain-of-events bothered to double check, because “nobody would be dumb enough to make a mistake like that”….??????
Besides, they could have dropped one every 20 minutes over the flight path they flew, and no one would have probably even noticed (or cared).
Gulfstream, did you even bother to read badger’s link?
“Philip Coyle, a senior advisor at the Center for Defense Information who served as assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, calls the incident “astonishing” and “unbelievable.” He says, “This wasn’t just a mistake. I’ve counted, and at least 20 things had to have gone wrong for this to have occurred.”
Of course, since you seem to be intimately familiar with the “bomb-handling department”, what the hell does Philip know?
If you look in the dictionary under the word “sheeple”, there’s a picture of you pasted in. Congratulations.
Oh thanks. YOU can just rock me to sleep tonight.
Dollar Continues to Plumb Depths
By DAVID RISING – 1 hour ago
BERLIN (AP) — The dollar plumbs new depths in thin trading Friday with record lows against the euro and a 12-year low against the yen on speculation that the American credit crisis will lead to another U.S. interest rate cut.
The euro spiked early to hit $1.4966, breaking the previous record of $1.4873, set the day before.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hiVtV2zuQIAFn_h-JnQjvVSfPTRgD8T3BPLO0
–
It didn’t last. When I went to bed Euro was trading at record high and this morning it is down. 1.50 might prove to be a big wall to climb over.
Jas
? euro is down 1% ($ 1.48) against the dollar compared to earlier today.
and despite the relatively high euro/dollar exchange rate, the gold price in euros is close to its all time high and can set new records within a few days. EU investors are just waiting for the final ECB decision to trash the euro, can’t be much longer before they throw in the towel and openly follow the same path as B-52 Ben. In fact, they already are on the same path because inflation in Europe is raging just like in the US, and they do nothing - while contrary to the US the housing market and economy are still doing very well, plenty of room for some serious tightening.
Let’s just say that like the $US price of non-core-CPI items like food and energy, the exchange rate value of the $US is highly volatile as of late.
The ECB May Have to Cut…Airbus in Real Trouble.
Airbus to Cut R&D as Dollar Breaches `Pain Barrier’
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Airbus SAS may cut its 2 billion- euro ($3 billion) research budget to trim costs as the dollar’s decline becomes “life threatening” for the world’s largest planemaker, Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said. “
sure, we hear these stories every day in Europe and I don’t doubt the ECB (and most of all the cleptocrats in Brussels) will listen far better to the complaints from a few big companies (that are hopeless black holes anyway) than to the average citizen that is being killed by inflation.
Cutting costs to be competitive in constructing contraptations that you or I will be passengers on, sooner or later…
Is not what I want to hear~
“Life threatening” to the people on the plane? Who cares. Life threatening to the planemaker? Major conniptions!
btw, I saw on a PBS program that for insurance and “tombstone technology” programs, an airline passenger’s life has a dollar value of about $2M. If 10 people are killed in a plane crash, they’ll spend $20M in research to prevent it happening again.
Am I correct in conjecturing that the unwinding of the yen carry trade will result in countless silent screams among the world’s hedge fund investors?
DJ Forex Focus: The Yen Is Likely To Keep On Rising
LONDON (Dow Jones)–Look for the yen to gain some more.
Yes, if it rises too far and too fast, Japanese officials will more than likely object.
But, for the moment at least, there appears to be little reason not to expect the Japanese currency to keep on rising. Gavin Friend, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank in London, suggests that the rally could reverse all of the losses the yen sustained while it acted as a funding currency for carry trades.
“An eventual move to Y101.25, or another 6% or so, would chime with a rise in the yen’s nominal trade-weighted index to 130 - thus reversing all of the yen’s losses seen through the yen-funded carry phase that really kicked off in the summer of 2006,” Friend said.
As the U.S. subprime crisis continues to spread, as risk aversion continues to rise and as yield differentials continue to decline in favor of the Japanese currency, Friend is not alone in forecasting more yen gains.
http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/1646397,10,dj_forex_focus_the_yen_is_likely_to_keep_on_rising,item.html
101, ok, but then where?
Not much hard evidence there. So six military personnel died in accidents or suicides in the days leading up to the incident. Do you have any idea how many military people die in accidents and suicides each year? It’s a lot.
Also, one of the “mysterious deaths” shot himself in his parents’ home in West Virginia. And while the nukes were in Minot, ND, one of the guys who died was stationed in FL. Some of the other guys died in car accidents.
Naturally, this evidence leads to only one conclusion: that the Bush administration was planning a nuclear first strike against Iran.
wth are you talking about? I thought this was a housing blog.
Sorry, was replying to the very first comment.
I’m guessing most of you don’t read the NY Times Style section, but you might be interested in this column, which illustrates how much the subprime crisis is spreading off the financial pages and into mass culture. Michelle Slatalla, the author (whose ARM is about to reset), is an online shopping columnist who recently moved from NYC to California. Normally, her column is light and funny. Not today:
http://tinyurl.com/2xdyab
She’s the same one who was obsessed with the value of her house every few hours circa August.
http://tinyurl.com/2zkf3b
I believe txchick wanted to take one of those 20 lb trouts to her (me too!)
Has anyone been flattened in the doorway of a Walmart yet? Surely by now it has happened.
Good Morning Txchick
I am off to play golf this morning. No shopping for me. I met with a policy holder that has a construction company last week. He had been flipping houses for the last couple years successfully but now has SEVEN houses for sale - all worth less than he paid for them. Construction business down (remodeling) and due to a dry year in Phoenix the roofing side of the business is down as well. No sympathy from me.
Monday could be an interesting day for the Dow. Your thoughts?
I”m quite bullish at the moment. After the first of the year is another story.
Isn’t a flood of 401k and IRA money due to flow into stocks after Jan 1?
I suspect The Boyz have a great interest in keeping stock prices elevated until then so they can unload into this flood of $$$.
“Isn’t a flood of 401k and IRA money due to flow into stocks after Jan 1?”
Hopefully, the fund administrators will take a leaf out of Pinellas County, Florida’s book and secure the capital, rather than focus on potential phantom returns. To paraphrase Mark Twain, they should be more concerned about return OF investment, rather than return ON investment. You’d have to be a hermit living in a cave somewhere if, by now, you can’t see that Wall Street has its skivvies down around its ankles.
That’s pretty funny that Mark Twain said that since he lost tons of money in bad business deals. He must have been an early hedge fund manager.
Correct, but Mr. Twain also repaid ALL of his debt once he was able. Very rare, if ever seen in this day and age.
Mark Twain also said, “A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.”
What do bankers do when hurricane warnings have been issued?
tee hee…
oh, wait… I resemble that remark.
I’m thinking 1475.
Twain who had been a printer’s assistant / typsetter invested in an automatic typesetting machine. He and his partner sunk big bucks into it but it never worked well. And the pressmen’s union not big fan’s of it.
And then along came the linotype, and the start of a printing revolution.
Having seen a Linotype machine in operation when I was about 8, I can say that it is a very impressive piece of machinery.
To be honest the price slashing are downright scary because they to me indicate how fast our economy is sliding down even more than the charts and numbers that don’t mean a thing to the average consumer. But when your see all kinds of gadgets slashed down to resemble the prices at .99 stores it is telling us that the money is not there. My vote is that today will be a chilling disappointment to most retailers.
I’ve noticed one thing. My email box is flooded with discount offers from everyone I’ve bought something from over the past two years. But the European vendors are offering much lower discounts. For instance: U.S. outdoor gear vendor: 30% off plus free shipping. Royal Artglass in Sweden: 5% off and then you get whacked on the exchange rates.
not surprising, in Europe the free money is still available everywhere, certainly for homeowners. Still, most of the population is not keeping up with inflation and ‘economic growth’ is healthy thanks to higher expenditures for natural gas (in my country, maybe other items in other EU countries) and many other items that are really just another form of inflation. Something has to give, I wouldn’t be surprised to finally see bad numbers from Europe too this Christmas season. I think the difference is that in Europe a big chunk of the population still has lots of money available, they will buy anyway - even with no discounts.
“…in Europe a big chunk of the population still has lots of money available.”
How can this be? I’ve been told by my capitalist leaders that the socialism that is rampant over there is a terrible thing.
A big chunk of our population is looking for that magic turnip that they can squeeze blood out of…
obviously we have to wait and see how much money is left in Europe after the EU bubble has fully run its course.
For the moment, if you spend more than your income and make sure you have no taxable assets (home does not count as a taxable asset in some EU countries), socialism currently ensures you will be doing extremely well, as government will rob the people who have some savings left to help those who are spending beyond their means. And of course, going into debt is no problem as government is always there to help the disadvantaged who dug themselves a hole, by providing lots of money to get out of the hole or simply arrange a nice bankruptcy procedure so you can proceed to the next level of the game and get ahead of those who play by the rules.
So this is the way to go for most EU Labour Party voters - must sound counterintuitive for an American, but that’s just how it is here. Socialism is great for financial fools.
Well, we need to get over our fear of the word “socialism” in this country. You mention that word in a crowded room of Republicans, and you’ll either get:
1. trampled to death in the herd’s dash for the exit, or
b. shot.
IMO, the production and distribution of food, energy and healthcare should be “nationalized” here in America. They should be non-profit organizations. The billions in profits being syphoned off to CEO’s and shareholders should be going to reduce the costs of prescription drugs, food, and gasoline.
Oh, boy…now I’ve went and done it.
I go to EU frequently and would trade the lifestyle and/or living standard for anything. A colleague of mine had to return to Brussels the summer before las to buy both of his parents because they died within 1 month of each other…because of the heat wave and no AC in the hospital. Most of my colleagues are from oustide the US and would love to get out from under the confiscatory taxes there.
Bought a gfit from Omaha Steaks last year, got a call from them last week. The guy must have been a used car salesman at some point. Instant hangup.
I shouldn’t have posted, they just called me again!
I am also getting coupon discount offers of $25.00 off on auto electronics mechandise, or $20.00 off on over $100 purchased at office depot. ect. The amt of discounted offers seems to indicate that retailers desperately need cash infusions to keep cash flow(Name of game) incoming. That means enticing consumers thru markdowns/ coupons .
I am really tempted to install a Car alarm system and save $25 on a $50-100 purchase and probably can squeeze in free installation as well from a certain car electonics dealer who is really desperate for sales.
Passed by a strip mall this morning at 7:30. There’s a medium-size Wal-Mart, Linens’n'Things, two furniture stores, Golf Galaxy, World Market (whatever the heck they sell). The parking lot was packed, completely packed. But I’ll agree with the Black Friday thread: I think it’s all loss-leader stuff.
The only shopping I plan to do this week is at Whole Paycheck. Yeah yeah, they’ve become an expensive hippie greenwash that went boutique, but this one has local produce.
Waterford (makers of crystal, fine China) announced layoffs of 1,400 in Ireland, citing lower sales to Americans as the cause.
Lots of competition, I think. We personally love our Waterford, but don’t need more than a few pieces. I wonder how Polish crystal is doing.
For the upscale shoppers, news that Prada and Gucci, among other high-end retailers, very quietly have their stuff made in China, too. So, go ahead, pay top dollar for junk.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/23/opinion/23thomas.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The Japanese in their heyday of the 1980’s-early 90’s, were what high-end retailers dreams were made of…
The Japanese are very particular about saving face, and if you bought gifts that were perceived as high-end for your friends, business associates and family, you had to buy the very same thing, for all of them.
Thus, when a well heeled Japanese tourist ambled into a store on the Champs Elysee, he or she walked out with 23 identical Louis Vuitton wallets, or purses…
Quietly? How quiet is it when everyone knows it–and everyone knows the factory managers keep the lights on past COB and produce goods illegally for 2 or 3 hours to sell through underground economy channels (vendor tables in front of the dead dept stores in the urban jungle)?
Everyone knows that $100+ bags can be had for $4 at the right street corner. Some of it is lousy knockoff goods, for sure, but some of it is genuine, in the sense that it is the same materials, same factory, same worker–but without the approval of the licensor.
Certainly, but chicks don’t buy $100+ bags for the quality, they buy them so they can show them off to their friends.
Moving production to Czech Republic.
Am sipping cognac from my Waterford right now, purchased at TJ Maxx for practically nothing… They’re toast.
I was in San Francisco for the first week of December last year. The crowds were crushing in the upscale malls around Union Square, but few people were carrying any bags. It was striking.
I’ll be back in SF this year, same place same time. (AGU anyone?) I will keep my eyes on the shopping. In Toronto, the sharp-elbowed shoppers have been out in full force, carrying huge Lululemon bags - just the essentials for this crowd!
I was in Waxahatchie, TX a couple of weeks ago. I went shopping with a wallet full of converted loonies, but I didn’t need many to load up on a suitcase full of basic clothing. The sales were actually terrifying (50-80% off a $10 shirt?!) and every store was completely empty, tumbleweeds in the aisle. I’m worried for my family in that area - they still all work in manufacturing.
Don’t know what AGU is but I do know what Peet’s, as in Peet’s coffee, is. When you are in the City or its environs, be sure to go to one of these stores (all over SF, particularly in the finance district a few blocks east of Union Square).
Peet’s coffee got me through undergraduate and graduate school, my first boring job, too many projects to name, and will get me through this housing depression.
I’ll be at AGU, but it’s not such a far trip for me. See you there. I’ve posted about restaurant and bar traffic slowing (according to the waitstaff), but I never go to the mall. Not for all the farms in Cuba.
Mr Bubble
“I was in Waxahatchie, TX a couple of weeks ago. I went shopping with a wallet full of converted loonies, but I didn’t need many to load up on a suitcase full of basic clothing.”
Where were you shopping? In that outlet mall south of town? Poor Waxahachie. Used to be a very nice place.
There’s a double whammy to just about giving away stuff, f.o.b. China…
The wholesale replacement costs of every doohickey that normally sells for say $20, that they’re selling them for $6 on Morte Mortgage Memorial Day, might be $30 in 3 or 6 months time, due to inflation.
The retailers would then have to sell it for around $40.
Retailing is all about price points, which is why many of us have noticed that in lieu of raising the price on food items, they’ve shrunk the weight down, to compensate.
Once people are put off by perceived high prices, they’ll buy bupkis…
brit bubble:
The rate of UK mortgages approvals fell by 16 per cent in October as the Government’s controversial Home Information Packs discouraged sellers from putting their homes up for sale and higher interest rates put off buyers taking out home loans.
The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) said today the number of mortgages approved for home-buyers fell from 54,000 in September to 44,100 last month — a 37 per cent slump on October last year.
The BBA said that the sharp fall was the delayed result of five interest rate increases since August 2006, which are now impacting the housing market.
http://tinyurl.com/ysgku6
Howard Archer, the chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, said: “Slowing housing demand is expected to steadily feed through to dampen house prices over the coming months. Indeed, there is undeniably a very real risk that the housing market could see a sharp correction.”
If potential buyers can’t borrow and potential sellers are urged not to put their homes on the market, is that just delaying the inevitable correction and resulting in a sharper and steeper correction when it does occur?
you can still get 10x income, 125%, no-doc, I/O etc. loans in the UK (and many other EU countries). Even if you have no official identity they will provide a fake buyer identity for a little extra. Who says there are potential buyers that can’t borrow??? And despite all the talk, mortgage rates in most of Europe are again declining instead of decreasing …
Happy Black Friday!
As usual, every dark cloud has a silver lining. While throngs of shoppers are out beginning at 4am to load up on Christmas goodies they don’t need, the U.S. stock market futures are pointing up. With all the gloomy news about risky assets as of late, this may be a great day to buy the dip! Once the correction is official, the market will bottom out and quickly correct to the upside. Don’t get caught on the sidelines again when this happens.
TODAY’S MARKETS
Investors Shed Stocks on Fears Of a Slowdown
Treasury Securities Favored Amid Unease;
Dow Nears ‘Correction’
By PETER A. MCKAY and LINGLING WEI
November 23, 2007; Page C1
In their intensifying search for havens, investors are bidding up Treasury securities and thumbing their noses at just about everything else, from stocks to municipal bonds to government-sponsored enterprises.
Reacting to fears of a U.S. economic slowdown, investors dumped stocks on Wednesday. Not even low-risk sectors such as utilities or consumer staples were spared. Then in Asia yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 4.4%, leaving it down 16% this month. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which includes a number of China plays, lost an additional 2.3%, bringing its loss for November to 17%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119578166761001707.html?mod=todays_us_nonsub_money_and_investing
While throngs of shoppers are out beginning at 4am
There was a segment on CNBC a couple of hours ago (I.e. evening Australian time), and they showed shoppers lined round a block in the pre-dawn outside a BestBuy (sp?).
I just sat there with my mouth hanging open, thinking “You GOTTA be kidding me”.
I have never understood this. Even if you wait in line you are not guaranteed anything. And for what? To maybe save $200 on a TV?
I wouldn’t stand in line for gold bars. Wait, what’s the spot price of gold? Ha.
“There was a segment on CNBC a couple of hours ago (I.e. evening Australian time), and they showed shoppers lined round a block in the pre-dawn outside a BestBuy ”
The stupid idiocy of US consumers is on display, getting in line
at 4 Am at best Buy or some other Crappy retailer on black ftiday to get crap at 20=50% off. If i did that stupid thing and waited in line at 4 am I could have gotten a HP photosmart c5280 for $84.99, a supposed deal from reg $129, but they are crappy printers only useful for photo work. Anyway i can get a better bargain even after black friday on a Canon MP470 for $100.00, which is superior for regular text printing to HP C5280 . If i really want to get cheap, i can get the mp 470 online for $70 but even at $ 100 still a bargain low price for a 3/1 printer for casual home users who do not need a hi capacity home office work horse and alreay have a stand alone faxing machine and just need a quality printer/copier/scanner.
I will spend my black friday at home relaxing and playing with my computer, fixing up my house( a hobby for me) or at the gym instead of getting stressed out jabbing and jostling with mobs of lunatic bargain hunters.
This Dow Theory business sounds like a bunch of religious clap-trap. Hasn’t modern finance come up with anything better since Charles Dow set forth this idea? Serious investors should ignore this gloomy and arcane theory as a contrarian signal that it is time to buy the dip.
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Technically, a Challenge for Blue Chips
By SCOTT PATTERSON
November 23, 2007; Page C1
A century-old market-timing theory suggests stocks could fall more.
It’s called Dow Theory and it tracks two market gauges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Based on the writing of Charles Dow, a Wall Street Journal founder, Dow Theory holds that when both indexes move in the same direction, they signal the market’s long-term trend.
The latest signal flashes red. The transportation average, which follows airlines, railroads and truckers, has tumbled 20% since hitting an all-time closing high July 19. The industrial average has dropped 9.6% since its record close reached Oct. 9. It closed Wednesday at 12799 and has fallen below its recent mid-August low of 12846. Dow Theory holds the combined weakness of transports and industrials could signal a bear market.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119578311326901738.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The most bogus part of the Dow Theory is that by the time the signal is flashing, lots of damage has already done to the portfolio of anyone who was long DJIA stocks. By the time the Dow Theory signals “sell,” you should have already done so weeks ago.
how much money do you lose when the dow goes from 14,000 to 13,0000? It can’t be that much and of course you can always anticipate the dow theory sell signal. I will be listening to what Tim Wood has to say about this.
TOKYO: Many people in Japan are starting to talk about “quitting America,” but they are not referring to a rise in anti-U.S. political fervor. Rather, they mean a move away from American investments that is altering global capital flows and helping to weaken the dollar.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8442812
November 23, 2007
Sub-prime crisis takes £5.3bn toll on Japan’s banks
Leo Lewis
Profits in the Japanese banking sector have taken a 1.2 trillion yen (£5.3 billion) hit from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the country’s central bank has said that worse turmoil may be on the horizon.
The first estimate of the damage wrought by sub-prime was prepared by Japan’s Financial Services Agency and follows grim first-half earnings figures from Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
Sub-prime problems left a big dent in the bank’s profits between April and September, which were 49 per cent lower than they had been the year before. According to yesterday’s FSA report, in combination, MUFJ and Japan’s two other “megabanks” have admitted to about 460 billion yen in sub-prime exposure in their first-half earnings.
Total sub-prime related writedowns by the three megabanks amounted to less than £500 million. Despite the colossal size of the banks, which also include Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Japanese exposure to sub-prime is low relative to global rivals.
The sub-prime bubble inflated at a time when Japanese banks had only just begun to emerge from their decade-long torpor — they remain highly conservative institutions and were not eager buyers of repackaged US mortgage products.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2926165.ece
A bad loan by any other name:
It’s not just subprime anymore.
Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage lending enterprise, said this week that enough borrowers were defaulting on loans made this year or last that it needed to mark down the value of the loans by $1.2 billion.
How many of those loans were subprime?
None. But that does not make the losses any less real.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/23/business/23norris.html
Q. Which is the Better Investment: A House or a Town Home?
A. Neither?
Which is the Better Investment:
A House or a Town Home?
By June Fletcher
From The Wall Street Journal Online
http://www.realestatejournal.com/columnists/housetalk/20071119-fletcher.html?mod=RSS_Real_Estate_Journal&rejrss=frontpage&rejpartner=wsj_hpp
Here’s the photo for the “Shopping Story” for a local news group. No comment…
http://www.baynews9.com/images/news/2007/11/23/lgshopping.jpg
No comment, either, ROTFLMAO!
Someone needs to get an old model aircraft radar (from a B707 or DC-8 ought to do) and do a few sweeps across that doorway.
Happy belated Thanksgiving everyone!
These people are, of course, mentally retarded. Therevore we should not make fun of them.
“All you got is fraud going on.”
Ben, here’s a good leader for a Florida bit
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/23/Northpinellas/Unsigned_letter_accus.shtml
The WSJ says today that remodeling prices are plunging along with new construction. But not in NYC. Not yet. Still waiting.
“The WSJ says today that remodeling prices are plunging along with new construction. But not in NYC. Not yet. Still waiting.”
Same with Santa Monica/Brentwood CA ..$2 million teardowns along San Vicente and lots of construction. Trickle down economics still working fine for the rich.
Everything’s not yet here, ain’t it? Things only goes up here, except maybe salaries! And no mob’s even battering down the doors at the offices of the $38 billion bonus babies down on Wall Street …
er, Things, um, only go up here, that is. Not that I’m bitter or overexcited or anything.
RE: remodeling prices are plunging along with new construction
Less work for muni fire department’s. Remodeled flipper triple decker’s go up in flames all the time around here.
Too many illegals pluggin’ in hot plates into slipshod wiring.
All’s well here in BIG DIG Country!
I have a couple of anecdotal data points to share:
1) I was having lunch two weeks ago with some co-workers at a Vietnamese Pho restaurant in Chantilly, VA (exurb area of Washington, DC). Someone in our party made a comment to the waiter that he seemed like a natural salesman, and he replied that, yes, he used to be a realtor in NoVA, but had to take this waiting gig at the Pho place b/c “no one is buying houses anymore”.
2) I rent a townhouse in a fairly affluent neighborhood of Arlington, about 1 mile from the Pentagon (just off Columbia Pike). I’ve noticed that there are about 4 or 5 houses on Glebe Road that have been on the market now since last spring, and don’t see many cars parked outside during the weekend open houses. There are also several houses near my sister’s place in Maclean (with asking prices north of $1 MM) that have been on the market for more than 12 months.
3) A woman in my gym class was talking to our instructor about her upcoming move to The BIG D and how she was frustrated that she had not been able to sell her condo in Arlington yet.
4) A member of my family who decided three years ago that his small, poor farming community in southern Missouri was gonna be the next “El Dorado” took out a $500K loan from the bank and also invested $200K+ of his own savings in to developing several acres of land adjacent to the town’s only golf course. Today, 90% of the lots remain unsold, and he’s already cut his “wishing price” on the lots by 50%, which is below break-even.
It’s really hard to gauge just how much damage this housing bubble will have on average folks, but I get the impression that there are soooo many people who are going to learn the hard way that getting rich is not as easy as just buying a condo or plot of land and simply watching it appreciate 10% every year.
It’s really hard to gauge just how much damage this housing bubble will have on average folks,
BF and I got into a heated discussion about the housing bubble - (I couldn’t believe it) - and when he got really hot he said to me:
“If you know so much then why don’t you quit your job and become a REALTOR!”. Like being a realtor would be an improvement to my current situation.
- Demonstrating that the average Joe believes that realtors are actually, well knowledgeable about the market.
I questioned BF as to why he was so concerned anyway…Miser of the Western World paid off his house long ago.
(I should tell him I’m not going to quit my job and become a realtor because I don’t see a future for myself slinging Vietnamese noodle soup.)
LOL
I became a realtor about 10 days without quitting my job.(it took 3 weeks with home study course) A few years from now, I want to buy low(for cash) and sell low with my broker’s license. (I only have a sales license now.)
Right now I’m submitting 40% low ball cash offers on homes and condos. I’m mostly getting laughed at but I could care less. I have one listing agent who is actually submitting my offer as a short sale.
I don’t expect the bank to take it but ya never now. Right now, it is fun and better than watching TV.
We should all do that.
Interesting observations. I think DC is like what NYCityboy and others say about Manhattan - so in denial. Of course it’s diffenent here in DC.
Oy! Chantilly is my old haunt. I’ve been keeping track of a foreclosure in my old neighborhood. Townhouse bought 11/2005 for $460. Now being offered for $325k! Yikes, talk about a hair cut!
BTW: These places were built and sold for $180k in 2000, so I figure that they’re not worth more than $240k today.
When she gets to “BIG D”, she can work for our company providing services in the new growth area of real estate advertising. Can she start Monday and be laid off Friday before health care starts?
From the St. Paul (MN) Pioneer Press. Hastings is a small river city about thirty miles south of St. Paul. Bedroom community.
“A developer who once hoped to build luxury condominiums along the Mississippi River in Hastings has canceled any plans for the downtown waterfront.
“The condo market fell apart, and the whole plan kind of collapsed on its own,” Hastings Mayor Paul Hicks said. “They were kind of high-priced condos … but it would not have been easy to develop the area there.”
Not far from downtown, a condo project behind the Schoolhouse Square center at East 10th and Vermillion streets also has failed to find legs. Plans once called for 57 condos, but the concept was retooled into a proposed senior-housing cooperative. That project, too, is on hold.”
Full article at http://www.twincities.com/
How’s this for a Thanksgiving wake-up? Trying to get caught on my to-do list I woke early yesterday and started investigating hubbies 401K. A bit prematurely I had moved her into 100% Money markets about a year ago.
When I drilled down through the prospectus The “top ten holdings” were all Freddie, Fannie, and another horrific performer whose name escapes me. Needless to say I spent the next 6 hours re-allocating her investments. At least her 401K had 60-80 funds to chose from.
Saturday I’ll be re-visiting my 401K which unfortunately has only 10 funds to choose from. When you eliminate the obvious (financial, retail, RE) you aren’t left with much to choose from.
Safe havens are few and far between.
Have a great holiday weekend!
Twice this week (Monday and Wednesday) I’ve had guys knocking on my door in the evening, looking for remodeling work. Same spiel: they’re gonna be doing work in the neighborhood, so I’ll be seeing them around, and might I possibly be interested…? Each time they had photos of past jobs they’d supposedly done. Two different companies sending out guys to door-knock (in the dark) the week of Thanksgiving. Oh, yeah, the tradespeople are hurting.
Out-of-work tradespeople going door-to-door is very uncool, IMO. They are basically saying that they have identified a feature of your property (generally trees, landcaping, paint, drives, roof) that needs work. WTF? When uninvited people come wandering around my property (when I used to have it, of course) I usually try to get their vehicle description and license plate and let them know that they are out of line.
When in college one summer I work as a canvasser for a home improvement company. It was local family company good reputation. Licensed, insured, bonded, … We would go door knocking in neighborhood where the company really had work going on. Knock on the door. Hi I m Anon in DC with XYZ Company. We’re building a sun room for the Smiths next block over. Are you interested in anywork ? No ? Here’s the compan’s card for the furture. Thanks. Good afternoon. 30 seconds top. Besides people with a bad roof or falling down fence know about it. If you talking about someone who appears to an itinerant work out of the back of the the pick-up truck type, yep those need some watching, though I have hired some for odd jobs on occassion. So far so good.
Unless you have a “no soliciting” sign on the door, I see nothing wrong with it. They need work, you might need a new roof.
Would you rather they are out of a job and collecting your tax dollars through welfare?
Have you had the desperate meat salesmen come by? A truck pulled up to my house in Maine last week. Guy got out and tried to sell me giant cartons of steak and pork chops. I didn’t want to be rude, so lied and said I was a vegetarian. He said, “Well, then, how about some chicken?”
Here is some interesting news from Miami. The downtown dadeland condo project has hit an iceberg. The folks building the condo have gone bankrupt. This is a huge mess. This is by far the biggest condo bust in Miami-Dade.
http://www.dailybusinessreview.com/news.html?news_id=45826
LMAO…$224 million construction loan.
Wait until the project gets re-appraised utilizing sales and rent numbers from the past year…Whoeee!
But oh, well, what’s a hundred million dollar loss between friends.
This is it! We are saved! The Germans have given us the green light to go spend, spend, spend! Hand me down my Visa card, Ma!
http://tinyurl.com/36pa6j
Roidy
“One can relish the varied idiocy of human action during a panic to the full, for, while it is a time of great tragedy, nothing is being lost but money.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Have looked closely at ski condo occupancy, by clicking on the calendars at ‘vacation rental by owners’. It is remarkable how many have no bookings at all, maybe two percent are close to fully, and ten percent are somewhat medium booked for the winter.
Just imagine how many millions have been poured into their luxury interior ‘designs’ & kitchens especially. It is my impression that many of these second home owners will get severely burned.
(Two years ago, when I was curious just to see the interior of a newly built place, the agent said that ‘the price of 1.4 million easily pays for itself, they rent for a 1400 a night and the people who come to vacation here will never be affected by a possible downturn.’ )
Am kind of very sorry to think that pension funds and similar entities end up paying for this decadence.
Freddie Mac Risks Larger Credit Losses, Moody’s Says
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, may report wider losses than it forecast as the slump in credit markets worsens, Moody’s Investors Service said.
Freddie Mac, which reported this week a record loss of $2.02 billion for the third quarter, may not have gone far enough in projecting that 0.11 percent of the debt it guarantees will go bad in the next two years, Moody’s analysts Brian Harris and Craig Emrick said in a report.
“Continued deterioration in the mortgage market, resulting in further decline in these books, may lead to credit losses in excess of their 11 basis point loss forecast,” New York-based Harris and Emrick wrote in the Nov. 21 report. “
That’s the great failing of many amateur RE tycoons: they think that either “when I rent it out for $X I will make a profit,” or “when I sell for $Y, I will make a profit.” It simply doesn’t occur to them that NOBODY cares what they paid for a place or what their costs are. Buyers and renters only care about what other people are willing to sell or rent for.
Is anyone in the mood for bungee jumping?
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Twin Peaks
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=SPX&time=20&freq=1&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=&uf=0&ma=&maval=&lf=1&lf2=&lf3=&type=2&size=1&txtstyle=&style=&submitted=true&intflavor=basic&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp
Good luck.
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/rfs/486910515.html
The wallpaper alone should take a zero off that price.
There’s some $500 month heating/cooling bills ahead for that monster. Like the $33 HOA, though. Must be a neighborhood with publicly maintained streets and municipal/county garbage collection.
–
November 23, 2007
Greenspan (In Oslo): “Housing Decline Was a Shocker Because No One Expected It”!
Does anyone need proof that Greenspan is a liar? It is not his fault though; he was “raised in a culture of fraud.” The same culture that breeds the Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (sub-rime was anything but a surprise to some of us cranks). That is the “greatest story never told” about American finance – an economy manipulated by a criminal gang.
Jas
no, remember that Greenspan was a Gold guy and a Ayn Rand disciple. he was all free market and gold until he became the Fed Chair.
Easy Al was always in favor of the “investors”. These people are not investors. They are gamblers in the stock market. There is no economic area in the world that grows at a percent a day which is what the Wall Street Investors seem to expect.
When the markets go down, they Investors “whine until Fed”.
Roidy
We know the HELOC is dead but appearantly there are still available credit card balances here in Lodi CA. Went to Staples at 6:20 this morning and was amazed to find a large mob waiting to check out. There were many lines extending almost to the back of the store - in Staples for crying out loud! This is my first/last experience with Black Friday. I thoutht saving $150 on a $250 printer might be worth it. I was proud of the fact that I found the last printer left, but decided there was no way I was going to stand in line with the rest of the sheeple (Us HBBers do have our standards). Staples shares the same parking lot as Target… The lot was jammed full… A police car sat in front of the store, and people were darting in all directions, baskets brimming with the treasures they’d found. Oh the Humanity!
Is stationary a new thing, for you the Lodi?
This year, somebody’s getting a printer for XMAS. Next year, they’ll settle for a ream of paper.
I was proud of the fact that I found the last printer left, but decided there was no way I was going to stand in line with the rest of the sheeple (Us HBBers do have our standards).
Does this mean after getting up early and treking to the store, finding the last printer, you decided not to stand in line for 10 or 15 minutes ? Were the lines moving ? I would have figured in for a penny in for a pound ?
The lines weren’t moving and the natives were getting restless. I go to Staples often, and know that checkout can be painfully slow, even when there are only 2 or 3 people in line. Luckily, the store is just a few blocks away, so the time investment was minimal. Additionally, the long checkout line convinced my the printer was more of a want than a need
The Big Freeze…
1. The Covered Market in Europe (US$ 2 Trillion+ market) is frozen until Nov. 26th officially, but possibly til the end of the year.
2. China has frozen bank loans at Oct. 31 levels until the end of the year. (any updates on this from anyone?).
3. Ahnold wants to freeze ARM rates in Cali.
4. Easy Al is shocked, shocked to find out people think he had some responsibilities as Fed Chairman. He’s frozen in denial.
So, Central Bankers, how’s your planning working out for you? Still think you’re smarter than the marketplace?
Question: How many of the people in Wal-Fart buying those large plastic storage tubs…are actually “homeowners”…. 6 months into foreclosure?
Could this be why Sir Greenspent’s “Box Index” has disappeared?
I love those storage tubs, they make everything awesome and square.
Major shocker! Prime mortgage holders are not on sufficiently high ground to avoid the tsunami tide generated by the housing bubble collapse.
CHUCK JAFFE
When the levee breaks
Even average homeowners feel rising mortgage floodwaters
By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Nov 22, 2007
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — While the headlines have been full of stories on the credit crunch, subprime mortgage mess and the real estate bubble, a lot of ordinary homeowners have figured they were immune from the problems.
Ensconced in a home with a prime mortgage, they have watched the news and figured they’re safe. And all the while, the water has been rising.
With property values dropping in many areas of the country, a growing number of homeowners — particularly those who bought their house in the last five years — are looking at the prospect of being “underwater” on the mortgage. That’s when the value of the home is less than the amount remaining on the loan used to buy it.
So while the nation has been focused on a record-high rate of foreclosures, the tide has been rising on a lot of people who simply had bad timing. Zillow.com, an online real estate community, reported Tuesday that home values nationally are down more than 5.5% compared with a year ago, with many markets being hit much harder.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Chuck+Jaffe
I’m going to exercise the power to change my mind and am dumping my Dec calls. Want a better entry if any. Maybe if I’m lucky, this trade bought me a nice dinner out somewhere.
Also have sell short stop in on BIDU at 301. If that sucker breaks 300, it’s probably got 50 points of downside or more.
Hope this is right spot to ask question I have for Ben (or anyone else). I live in southern Arizona south of Tucson. Back in 04-05 we were plagued with telephone solicitations from timeshares from Sedona and some from Flagstaff. The come for two nights gig and sit through and insufferable 90 minute sales pitch. My neighbor bit. Thiswas during the good times had she had been over on two occassions to use phone to get Quest to get her phone turned on again after late payment. She is in her mid 60’s ,daughter lives with her. Naturally, they bought one . I guess it is real estate as you get a deed(?). Long story short I know she has stopped payng, but don’t know outcome.
Do they get foreclosed or does the just buyer default ?
I have tracked the weekly rental solicitations from owners on a web site a friend who owns three(!) gave me. They all seem to still be asking wishing prices imo for a weeks rental.
Desertfox
Desertfox
I have been hearing from friends that they plan to avoid Chinese imports for Christmas gifts this year. Just wondering if this is a trend or movement. Is there a shift in public perception after lead scare, etc? I am more than ever convinced that the economy is all about “sentiment” and on this black friday, is there any possibility that buying habits will change?
I hope so.
One of the fingers I have (in many pies) is as a knitter of toys for Craft Fairs - all made by me, from US and EU materials. I’m banking that something ‘not’ made in China will have a better chance of selling, when I do my xmas fair next saturday.
This ad keeps coming up on Craigslist DC - Brand new condos in East Orange NJ from 90K. $169K for 1 bedroom. 12 miles to Manhattan. Is the area a slum ? Is there a commuter train. If it’s halfway decent seems like it would put some downward pressure on city prices, though of course this project targets a quite diffrent audeince than those who just have to live in the city or can afford to. Any commments ?
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/rfs/486999720.html
I would be really interested in other peoples “black friday” reviews. I personally hole up in the house. I am going out today to pick up one thing, but it is in a little retail strip that doesnt have anything blockbuster in it.
I need more double pointed needles for mittens. Everyone on my gift list is getting hat/scarve/mitten sets instead of foolish cheap imported crap they dont need/want anyways. I am a retailers NIGHTMARE and I get the giggles everytime I picture their horror if they knew.
so any links to people getting mowed down by discounting search and destroy granmas would be appreciated.
I went Black Friday shopping today. I arrived fifteen minutes before Office Max’s opening, in a strip mall across from the local mall. The line was not bad, everyone was very polite. I’d estimate only about 100 folks.
The door opened at 7 am, every walked in (no mobbing) and I hurried to get my external hard drive. I picked up three other items on the ad, too. That surprised me - the drive was my major priority, and I really didn’t think I’d be able to score anything else on my list before it all got snapped up. I drove out of the parking lot 26 minutes after the store had opened.
I could see the Sears store and the IHOP were zoos, but everything else looked calm. So after going home for breakfast, I hit the local dollar store (deserted), the Walgreens (nearly empty), Big Lots/K-Mart (busy, but I got out in 15 minutes), and finally took the ultimate challenge: Best Buy. Astonishingly, though Best Buy was humming, they still had plenty of Black Friday specials on hand approximately four hours after opening. I didn’t have to wait at all to check out, either. In fact, I spent more time trying to get out of their parking lot than I’d spent inside finding my stuff and paying for it.
I don’t think this is gonna be a very hot season for the retailers, but I’m grinnin’. I’m building myself a new pc, and I picked up some peripherals on the cheap.
thanks. Sounds like your painless experience will make the retailers wail.
Sacramento report:
Sunrise Mall: Parking lot relatively busy.
Roseville Galleria: Parking lot packed. New parking facility full. This mall is always packed though, the whole new Roseville area is a nightmare to drive through.
Walgreens near Sunrise Mall: dead
Target near Sunrise Mall: dead. Went inside this store, good deal on pj’s. All I can say is wow there was alot of stuff on the shelves. There may have been people buying stuff, but one thing was clear… no matter what they try to tell the consumer, it’s obvious they have way too much stock. Alot of the shelves looked untouched.
after reading all the comments about getting pestered by salescalls, I’m glad I held firm & refused to give out my cell/home phone # to everyone that asked for it. Whats humorous is the consternation when I refuse, you can watch the chirpy clerk/auto service/retailer/phone company/cc co. and more come to the surface because I wont respond like a good little consumer robot w/my personal details.
What cracks me up even more is the aggressive attempt to negate the DO NOT CALL LIST by pumping people for their phone numbers, like Lowes. They claim its for ‘ better receipt purposes’ which is certainly true, but the main purpose is fresh phone numbers to telemarket customers. After all, if you just willingly hand over info, you cant get cranky later if or when it’s used. Too bad its not only used for the purpose under which it was wrung out from you.
If Lowes was true to their purpose of merch id info only, then why not just ask for the last 4 numbers of yer phone? Hmmmm ….
On a final note, I am going to wear a sign that sez: ” I DO NOT WANT A FOREVER-RELATIONSHIP FROM THIS SINGLE, ONE-TIME TRANSACTION” for all future retail forays !
These bailouts are a kick in the teeth for those who were responsible.
This woman bought with an ARM no money down . They converted her ARM to a fixed rate on the first 80% and “forgave” her 20% second mortgage .
So anyone who saved to have 20 % down was a fool. If they had just gone in with no money down they would have been given the 20% . With the forgiven money she isn’t under water now either.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/19/real_estate/foreclosure_fix_Stutzmans/index.htm?postversion=2007112112