The Housing Bubble

Eventually, somebody is going to do a statistical analysis of the high-paid analysts and figure out that they are no better than those at 1/2 the salary.

About time those guys got offshored, ceo’s should be next. I’ll volunteer to run a company into the ground for 100k a year.

This is one class of jobs which will be no big loss to the US economy. A world of hurt has been created by bogus research and analysis. India couldn’t possibly do a worse job and might do a much better job, unless they, too, get suborned.

The research dept. in ibanks is essentially a marketing dept.
Nothing more. Relying on their efforts is volunteering to lose your shirt. It’s interesting for me because whole depts. can now be shut down in NY, and will be. More jobs lots, and the tax revenues (City depends on Wall St. to stay solvent) will thin, as the dimunition of NYC as a financial center continues. The effects will be felt in real estate, restaurants, high-end stores, et. al. These jobs support the city services and the costs of the poor–all of which will have to be trimmed. By law, NYC must run a balanced budget, no deficits allowed.

NYC is the center of the debt consumption bubble, it has become overcroweded and insanely expesive and full of “nuevo rich”, I will welcome the chickens coming how to roost…

“But no, they still thought it was safe.”

The deleterious effect of abandoned underwriting standards on mortgage credit quality was masked by an unprecedented pace of U.S. housing price appreciation which occurred when unqualified borrowers were handed money with no downpayment requirements and low initial monthly payments.

It all has to do with the illusion that no matter HOW bad the underlying loans, banks could pool and tranche until there were good bonds made from them.

If a critical mass of foreign investment in U.S. RE is reached, might not political incentives for keeping RE asset prices propped up at pre-bust levels be eroded to the point of failure?

The saving grace of a housing bubble, compared to the dotcom bubble, is that it is shelter, one of our 3 basic needs…

I think prices will fall around 25% below pre-2000 levels, and obviously much more in B.F.E.’s, like the I.E.

ain’t nothin broken that a little recession won’t fix..

Must watch the Youtube video for a funny, yet accurate understanding of SIV and soon to be or not to be M-LEC.

Thanks Auger!
Leigh

“note that I am against DUI laws except when there is actual damage done”

This is a very dim viewpoint. I do hope that when the next DUI happens, you are not the guy who gets slammed.

Yeah, I’ve noticed the same thing too. I got 2 tickets 2 weeks apart inside my subdivision a block from my (former) house. Just a money making sceme that outraged me. I got out of both - there are enough people that willing pay their fees that if you put up any resistance the court backs off. For now.

This and the many spy cameras they’re putting up all over Houston are a leading factor in why I’m moving out to the country (that and I want a farm). It would be one thing if they were nailing everyone, but as you accurately noted the guilty go free, while the law abiding get stuck with big fees (because they can pay and criminals can’t).

Here in Houston it’s the illegals. They can total your car running a stop light and the cops will let them go without a ticket because they say the illegal wouldn’t pay it anyway. But just let a citizen do a 1 mph roll through of a stop sign on a deserted street and its a $200 fine and they want to haul you off to jail.

Oh please, I’ve lived in Houston for 4 years and I’ve never gotten a single ticket. Perhaps you should quit speeding?

Sorry to burst your bubble but I wasn’t speeding one block from my house. And I’ve lived in Houston longer than you have - it’s been getting significantly worse lately. Living in Houston you should be aware of the complaints against the spy cameras just being a money making scheme for the city (and no, I haven’t gotten tickets for that yet either).

Yep, we have the same problem in SoCal. My hubby was in a head on collision on the freeway with an illegal alien, no license, no insurance, not even a license plate, going about 80 miles per hour. Shut down most of the freeway and the woman still tried to drive off. Luckily he was in a big work truck so not hurt but he had nightmares for weeks because he had to slam on his brakes and almost fishtailed into a van full of teens next to him. The cops actually took this idiot away, but what do you want to bet they just let her out of jail the same day and she changed her name from Maria to Mari and avoided all fees, jail time, etc.

We were pretty poor for a while when we were kids. Raised by my dad who was a contractor. He couldn’t get over the fact that mexican guys would underbid the jobs, win, screw up the job, and walk away with a new name to do it again the next day. Not only that, but my dad had to pay a couple hundred dollars a year per child so we could ride the bus to school. Really hurt him sometimes when money was low. The illegal kids rode for free. The last straw was when he would get pulled over by cops consistently because he had a well cared for work truck and dump truck - they knew he’d pay the ticket. Never pulled over the illegals in trucks that were overloaded, uninsured, or dangerous. I remember seeing him in tears one time telling the cop that the ticket he was writing would just take food out of his kids mouths. This was in the 90’s when contracting work was scarce. Cop could care less.

Devil - of course, I’m aware of the cameras. Pat Gray wouldn’t shut up about them this morning. At least its not all illegals all the time anymore. I don’t agree with them in principal, but are you telling me that you were innocently driving, obeying all laws, when they stopped you in your subdivision? If so, then accept my apologies. I just probably haven’t gotten any tickets because they think I’m illegal or maybe they like my libertarian bumper sticker.

Thats why I never get stopped - I’m brown like an illegal and I drive a junker.

Hey tab, did you notice devildog said they got out of both tickets. So yea, he/she was just driving along and the cops gave them a ticket for no reason or at least couldn’t prove a reason to the courts content.
This is happening everywhere, and expect it to increase as the budgetary shortfalls increase. If you are driving an expensive car, lookout.
Have a buddy who is a CHP officer and he basically told me that, with the number of laws on the books in CA, they can pull anyone over at any time and write them a ticket.

Interesting, though I wonder how long a society can tax and fine itself to prosperity. At some point, people are going to have to actually do REAL work and spend less than they make, and the clowns running the show are going to have to stop getting rid of decent jobs and security and quit making everything into a zero-sum or negative-sum game in their favor.

Neil T,
Please, no matter what else you do today, turn these folks in to your state fraud division. When these folks get investigated, their friends and relatives who are thieving from you and your family will get the word and desist before they get nailed too. And please don’t say they’re “nice”–they’re stealing from you and from your children’s future. Nail ‘em.

“It will be quite interesting to see how we pull ourselves out of this mess.”

I have an idea how it’ll happen, but it won’t be pretty. And unfortunately more likely than not it’ll only involve getting out of one mess and into another - e.g. something that will involve a change of currency.

The only way the government can technically avoid default is hyper inflation (while significantly under reporting to avoid mandatory cost of living increases). They are already doing this but they are starting to fall behind and the gap will continue to increase.

When I bring up the possibility of pension default to my fed gov worker dad he says they’ll never do it-there would be a revolution. And then I say, oh yeah? Why do you think our military has been getting experienced doing real world population supression fro the last few years? And does anyone seriously think government workers would actually revolt? They are more sheeple than most. As the private sector citizens get squeezed more they may actually demand lessening gov workers benefits. Even if they don’t you can bet they wouldn’t get their panties in a bunch if gov pensions get scaled back.

Along that frame of mind packman, has anyone else caught the new (at least to me) talking head on CNN Headline news station?
Yesterday he had on Pat Buchanan pimping his new book. Now I want to self disclose that I don’t necessarily support Mr. Buchanan in many of his views but he is largely correct (IMO) with regard to immigration.
Anyway, this talking head went on and on about the upcoming collapse of the dollar, the plans to subvert our constitution and join the North American Union/ SPP legislation, etc, etc.
It was almost surreal watching this guy and listening to what was recently considered a very tin foil hat viewpoint. Pat Buchanan was agreeing with him and was totally aware of this plan.
As a side note, does anyone else find it strange that several members of congress have announced retirement plans? These guys usually die in their hard bought jobs. I think it is indicative of trying to get out before the high crimes and misdemeanors against the US citizens are uncovered.

“As a side note, does anyone else find it strange that several members of congress have announced retirement plans?”

Yes, auger, I have taken note of that, especially lardass Hastert, that was a shocker. Of course, they’re on to lucrative lobbying jobs, I’m sure.

3 ex-wives of Muslim bakery founder allege elaborate welfare scam

http://tinyurl.com/25cqg8

auger, I also agree with Buchanan’s points regarding immigration. All immigration, legal and illegal, for any reason, needs to be shut down while the system is repaired, just like you’d shut off the water to repair a plumbing or gas leak. Yeah, we’ve got plenty of criminality here in the US, but that doesn’t mean we need to add to it by importing it. First, you stop the bleeding. Then you work on the patient. The US is basically just an idea and I agree with Dada about restoring the republic.

“As a side note, does anyone else find it strange that several members of congress have announced retirement plans?”

New lobbying laws go into effect Jan 1 that will bar any congress/senate office holder from lobbying Congress for two years after leaving office. As a result, there’s a rush to the door…

“New lobbying laws go into effect Jan 1″

Ah so. The murky waters have cleared. Slightly.

In the case of Lott, there’s rumblings of another gay escort scandal.

bfffaaaaahahahaha, CONgress pay not keeping up with luxury inflation, and the G-men are breathing down their necks about graft again … the real money is on K street. Get a whiff of that rot…

Entitlements, maybe. I think some pension funds ARE going to get hosed. Guess what, those workers will flip out, but it won’t be a revolution …

They’ll be going postal …

My “entitlement” is the sad remains of the 6% deducted involuntarily from my pay, and “invested” where I have no say nor oversight. Nice entitlement.

Sorry but evolution is not science. It doesn’t even slightly follow the scientific method. It’s a religeon unto itself (read up on its origins sometime). It’s amazing what people will believe if they are indoctrinated enough..

Yep. The Lord dun dun it! An’ I ain’t no monkey!

Comedy. Evolution is testable and reproducible. A religeon [sic] it is clearly not.

MrBubble

http://endogenousretrovirus.blogspot.com/2007/08/michael-behe-please-allow-me-to.html

Just a small example of evolution at work. Apparently, it is science.

Nope, evolution is not testable or reproducable. When was the last time you saw a whale turn into a dog? It’s utterly ludicrous. What is verifyable is adaptation, which is just common sense (i.e. if due to weather conditions a bird needs a certain shape of beak, the brids with that beak will survive and prosper while the rest will die off - that’s just genetics). But evolutionists claim this is “evidence” of cross-species creation which is just plain hogwash.

For something to be science it has to be documentable and reproducable. What happens when “scientists” can’t reproduce? They get laughed off the stage (remember the cold fusion guys in Utah?), except for soem reason when it comes to evolution.

Evolution is just a brainwashed cult religeon. If you stop and think about it rationally it’s just nonsense.

Evolution is science. Creationism is religion.

For a discussion, check out this page:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/faq/

Sorry about the off-topicality, but the conflation of science and religion is a trend that drag us down to third world status.

Lame, devildog. You just whipped out a strawman. No one claims (except Lamarck) that species convert to new species in one or two generations. That’s nonsense. (BTW, Lamarck–or Lysenkoism–was promoted heavily by Stalin, but has been completely disproven. OTOH, Darwinism has a great track record. They went toe-to-toe in the mid-20th century. The US improved their wheat production while the Stalinist regime utterly failed. Hell, I believe we were feeding them for a while there.)

Talk.Origins Archive

Everything you need to know about modern biology in one handy website.

Once again, evolution is NOT science. Just becuase lots of people SAY it is doesn’t make it so. Evolution does not follow the scientific method, therefore it can not be science. When you can’t test something or see it for yourself it is either not true, or faith based (religeon). Evolution fits both of those (no one’s ever seen it-it takes millions of years!! Yeah, right).

Tell a lie long enough and most people will believe. And more people will believe the bigger the lie is.

No straw man here. You just proved my point. Evolution is unverifyable BECAUSE we all know species don’t convert over several generations. Therefore you can’t test or reproduce it, which are requirements for something to be science.

Kansas and much of the SE can finally be rid of those pesky scientific types who keep objecting to Creation Science.

That would probably be a good thing. Instead of spending so many cycles arguing about whether we crawled out of a primordial soup or were created, they could instead spend those cycles learning, you know, useful stuff, like math and reading.

The time spent arguing about this useless crap is much more wasteful than teaching a thought that might be wrong but has no bearing on real life if it is.

Hope you’re on good terms with your local warlord

The only warlord I’m aware of is in D.C. It’s much more difficult to send your neighbor off to war than it is to send some guy of a different race who’s family you will never have to see in church on sunday (or at the game on friday night or whatever). I would much prefer local people I know to run things than your corporate, war-mongering shills. But thanks for offering.

“It’s a religeon unto itself (read up on its origins sometime).”

Bosh! Just read the book I reference below, and a few others written by modern evolutionary scientists. No need to worry about origins unless you are into religion.

http://www.amazon.com/What-Evolution-Ernst-Mayr/dp/0465044255

Then if you want to learn about the critical importance of origins to religion, then read this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Gathering-Saints-Story-Murder-Deceit/dp/0671651129

or this one:

http://www.amazon.com/Under-Banner-Heaven-Story-Violent/dp/0385509510

“science” would be to say we have no f–cking clue, evolution, creation. Science is never reaching a conclusion and then trying to prove it.

As a scientist, I think devolution (a steady loss of diversity) has more proof than evolution.

It is a fools conversation; attempting to validate oneself by converting others.

Blue Skye –

Come on! I agree that, to avoid the dogmatic thinking of religion, there is a small chance that evolution isn’t real. In the same way, plate tectonics might be wrong. Shoot, gravity might just be an inverse cube of the distance at long distances. But the evidence fits these theories very well. Your reasoning seems to suggest that we can’t ever say something is right or wrong. But that’s sort of like Zeno’s paradox. Technically, you would never get anywhere by halving the distance, but realistically we do.

And I don’t think that it’s a fool’s conversation. Some of the people on the fence on some of these issues might see these anti-evolution “arguments” and think, “Gee, those guys sound like they know what they are talking about.” I, and others apparently, want to make sure that we stand up to be counted. I am not trying to convert anyone. Hey, we’re just trying to “teach the controversy”. LOL.

MrBubble

Wow. It’s incredible that the more I hear about Ron Paul the more I like him. I have yet to hear any of his views that I disagree with (there must be at least one, but I haven’t heard it yet).

I agree with you though that most Americans don’t agree with those things any more. Which is sad because I think without the government school indoctrination many more people would.

To each their own Devil. That’s one value from the past we can agree on - used to be people had civil discourse and respect for one another even if they didn’t agree on every issue. It used to be people were encouraged to look for commonality. We may not agree on social issues or science, but there are many economic and financial issues that we do agree on.

Yeah! Make way for “religeous” indoctrinashun!

You know crazy that is a good point. IMO civil discourse went away when rational thought became an endangered species. It drives me nuts how people foam at the mouth and scream about soemthing the other party’s guy is doing, but if it was their guy it would be OK. Yet on stuff that really IS important it seems most people give up without a whimper either because they don’t know the difference, or they’ve bought the “don’t offend” PC garbage hook line and sinker. Truely baffling.

Offending left and right over nothing, and refusing to take a stand on important issues. Americans today.

Mmm… Catholicious.

Heh, Chronos, “Never underestimate the power of the Dark Side.”

Ex-Cath & loving it!

If you are going to “quote” Ron Paul’s stances you should at least research them. his belief is that it should not be the Federal government’s job to decide what to do, or not do, with Money they should not of taken from the Citizens of the USA. Its all good as long as the Feds are subsidizing, and forcing people to do what you believe in (abortion, gay marriage, Foriegn aid, family values, stem cell research, flag burning, whatever). If you don’t believe in what they are doing, it is oppressive. I think we need to rethink the role of the federal government. I think it is to much power in to few. I think we should all start thinking for ourselves, and not believe everything we read in the MSM or hear on the radio. (its obvious the lie and have their own agenda). I think I like the idea of freedom to make my own Choices god and bad. Ron Paul is a Hero of mine, He is not perfect, but he is Honorable and Honest. And his decisions all make sense when you understand his thoughts on what Gov. should and shouldn’t be. I think now is the time to do some research for yourself on all the candidates. The crapstorm that is coming at us is going to put Issues like survival as a nation in front of gay marriage or stem cell research.

not a gator, you made my day. Always a joy to see randomly well educated people gathering for a common cause.
quasi-ex-Cath. And, yeah, that does get ugly.

I didn’t “quote” Ron Paul’s stances, alambka. I was reiterating what I read. It was my understanding from what I read that his anti stem cell research, anti gay, anti choice stand, anti birth control funding stances are based on his personal religious beliefs having nothing to to do with small government beliefs. That’s my objection - I don’t want any one of any religion shoving their beliefs down my throat in the form of laws, particularly when at the same time they proclaim to be small government, keep the government out of peoples’ lives believer.

Interesting that he already made one run at the presidency in 1988 as a Libertarian. I wonder why he would tie himself to the Republican party - why not run as an independent.

I don’t want any one of any religion shoving their beliefs down my throat in the form of laws,

That’s the point. As long as everything is federalized, everything is being forced down someone’s throat.

Without federalization we can have more liberty. You want a religious education? Sure, go for it. You want an anti-religious education, you can have that too. We don’t need one-size-fits-all.

When we have liberty, we will better be able to respect other’s personal beliefs, since we won’t be in danger of those beliefs being forced on each of us individually.

The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.

Thomas Jefferson

Massive immigration won’t fix the problem. That floods the labor pool, driving wages DOWN, which is the exact opposite effect needed if “they” want to keep housing prices inflated. Then, there’s the effects on neighborhood quality when a dozen illegals live in one house, drink themselves stupid and party late into the night, etc. And do they even pay property tax? I doubt it…

Nope, evolution is not testable or reproducable. When was the last time you saw a whale turn into a dog? It’s utterly ludicrous. What is verifyable is adaptation, which is just common sense (i.e. if due to weather conditions a bird needs a certain shape of beak, the brids with that beak will survive and prosper while the rest will die off - that’s just genetics). But evolutionists claim this is “evidence” of cross-species creation which is just plain hogwash.

Strangely enough, Devildog, whales and dogs are related, distantly. So, no, you won’t turn a whale into a dog, but (ancestors of) dogs turned into whales - over a very long period of time

‘Adaptation’ and ‘genetics’ are just two factors in evolution - adaptation describes why an organism changes, and genetics describes how it changes. Why do you have such problems with the word evolution and then go on to say that adaptation is just ‘common’ sense? How are they any different?

And what is this ‘cross-species’ thing you talk of? How do you think new species come into existance?
Take dogs and wolves - since people started meddling with wolves around 20,000 years ago, we have literally thousands of breeds of dog. OK, the evolution of the dog is not ‘natural’ selection, as people have selectively bred different dogs for different things, but the underlying fundamentals still apply. Breed dogs that show the characteristics you require and stop the dogs, that don’t have them, from breeding. Result? Dogs in all shapes and forms, from Mastiffs to Chihuahuas.

No offense meant, but it sounds as if you don’t understand the mechanism very well - and that’s all its is - a mechanism. Call it ‘adaptation’ or ‘genetics’ if you want, but its stilll the same thing.
Do you ‘believe’ in gravity? Will not beliving in gravity stop a plate from falling on your foot if you let go of it, or stop you from falling off a cliff if, you get too near the edge? No. But you can’t touch it or see it, yet it still affects every action you make (unless you live on the Space Station, or reside in a permanently flying Vomit Comet). Using your criteria, gravity isn’t ’science’ either.

Now, if you reject evolution on religious grounds, so be it. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that matter.

And, please, don’t start on Intelligent Design - that truly is false science. It insults creationists by refuting the all-powerful hand of god, and insults evolutionists by ‘magicking’ myriad species from thin air in a matter of days.

Sorry to be OT.

devildog is just yanking everyone’s chain. Nobody could be that dim and put a sentence together. Must be a slow day for him.

I don’t know, spike, strangely devildog’s contentions are so meritless and silly that I’m beginning to question whether in fact we have evolved very much.

yes, in parts of Old Europe like Netherlands, UK etc. (but not everywhere).

Actually, Palmetto, they’re just preparing for what’s to come. A lot of people who doubted Peak Oil became believers after reading about the Crawford Ranch. It’s all “green.” Just do a Google search on Crawford Ranch, solar, photovoltaics, and you’ll see, they’re ready for anything.

Also, as soon as Bush moved into the WH he replaced the solar panels Reagan ripped out and added a huge cistern. Again, a Google seach will back this up.

Thanks for the tip, KayLaw. Doesn’t surprise me.

As much as I’d love to see us cut lose from the global oil crime syndicate, I call BS on the outcome of global warming, peak oil and the supposed shrinking natural resources. I’m as green as anyone of you guys but there is WAAAAAY too much fear associated with this. Long ago, right here on this blog, we established the fact that fearful people do very stupid things. Can you say “buy now or be priced out forever?” As VTbear and I discussed below, the panic and fear mentality of 9/11 created a massive and unrealistic head for the hills mentality in NY which ultimately drove RE prices through the roof in ME, VT, NH and upstate NY. I’ll wager that those people who gave into that fear will pay a monumental price for acting on it. I’m not one of those who gave into that fear nor will I panic over the alleged shrinking natural resources.

I call BS.

The best upside to spiraling petro prices is seeing these gargantuan SLOBurbans come of the roads and onto front lawns with for sale signs on them.

Schadenfreude for me.

Just saw an article in Businessweek.com claiming that demand for used behemoths is rising.

“I call BS on the outcome of global warming, peak oil and the supposed shrinking natural resources”

I call BS on your BS and raise you two BS. We are clearly and demonstrably f*cking up this planet. I’m busy today, but if you’ll cite sources, so will I.

MrBubble

“I call BS on the outcome of global warming, peak oil and the supposed shrinking natural resources”

I call BS on your BS and raise you two BS. We are clearly and demonstrably f*cking up this planet. I’m busy today. But if you’ll cite sources, so will I.

MrBubble

Mr.B… I didn’t say it global climate change didn’t exist nor did I apologize for the crime syndicate that denies its existence. I am saying that we are overreacting to it as individuals and I won’t make that mistake for me and mine. In other words, I don’t fear to the point where I run to the hills, dump my diesel pickup for a Prius, etc. I’ll say the same thing about “terrism”.

Exeter —

Fair enough. Although I do think that climate change will be one of the greatest challenges humankind has ever faced, I agree that knee-jerk reactions are not the way to go. Until we “run the numbers” and do a comprehensive LCA on the diesel pickup and the Prius (and everything else), we don’t know what the hell we’re talking about. Paper or plastic, real or fake Xmas tree, hand towels or air dyer, etc. The signal to noise ration is just so high out there that people are freaking out and don’t know what to do.

Same thing goes with green-washing and carbon neutrality. BTW — It’s nice to see that global climate change seems to be getting less political. Bush or Gore, Dems or Reps? Who cares?! I hate ‘em all. Just somebody get the ball rolling in the right direction. And fuel cells and ethanol is NOT the right direction. You can’t manage what you don’t measure, so I think that GHG LCA is one way to make a difference. [Absolutely shameless plug for my company!]

The one thing that we can do without having to run the numbers is to stop consuming so much. Sorry, rambling on…

MrBubble

I with you 100% including ethanol, fuel cells and the overconsumption. We have to be led on all this by strong leadership instead of the insidious and evil denial machine that currently controls our destiny.

Well, come on down, Blano! Pretty balmy here in FLA, except I almost (I repeat, almost) turned on the AC yesterday.

Actually, in general conversation with friends and as a result of observing the weather, it would appear that the seasons have shifted by a month. In other words, getting November’s weather in December, December’s in January, etc.

The entire US east of the Rockies has shifted about 1/2 gardening zone warmer over the past 15 years.

Gardening zones are assigned a number from ~3-11. They define a zone by minimum temperature (will a plant survive the winter), but it also corresponds roughly to the number of months of growing season. The DC area was gardening zone 6, now it’s 6.5.

“Well, come on down, Blano! ”

Careful what you ask for, my good man, lol. You never know when I might decide to put up with Spirit Airline’s crappy service to get a $20 round trip ticket to your area. Done it once already.

Yeah, I was curious yesterday about exeter’s green leaves comments in the Northeast. It’s already blah and gloomy here with our regular 10 minutes a week of sunshine.

You’re around Tampa somewhere, right?? (a Spirit destination)

Interesting. I was reading some article yesterday (maybe a link from this blog) about the steady erosion of the South Florida beaches and all the millions of dollars put into “beach re-nourishment”. Dang! And they have the balls to complain about budget shortfalls in Tallahassee? I’d love to see those oceanfront condoze topple into the Atlantic. We could use some new reefs.

Still leaves on the trees in Brooklyn, some colors other than brown. The last day for leaf composting pick-up was last Sunday. I know the person who runs the program, and she had to schedule the dates in advance based on past climate data.

Blano, yes, I’m in the Tampa area. The Detroit of Florida.

Just possibly the most coherent and sensible statement you’ve ever made here Flat.

The chart at the upper right of that page appears to be a strange holdover generated by and ancient library called gnuplot. The fancified new charts, still in Beta whatever that means nowadays, are here (yahoo finance charts for ARE). The new charts are kind of spiffy, though the load times can be an annoyance.

Federal Mogul (lotsa car part trinkets) announced its second price increase of the year, as has Detroit Diesel..

major price increases from CAT and Cummins are in the pipeline. I am having trouble keeping up with the pace of changes in prices. Dont even get me started on “shipping” costs.

Inflationary pressures across the board of inputs is running at DOUBLE DIGITS….except wages, thats a mere 3%

A Voz points out, wages aren’t keeping up at all. There will be no appreciable wage inflation this cycle. If given a choice between lowering real wages or reinflating the bubble (which would require wage inflation, in part at least) guess which will win out?

Heh, heh. Volvos. The new ones suck but the ones they made back in the 70’s and 80’s could run head on into an 18 wheeler with hardly a scratch. Those things were tanks. My Dad had always had a nice old rusty Volvo in the yard and it always did great in the winters.

Well irrespective of Vulvas(glorified Fords using Ford Taurus parts) and their sneaker wearing clueless owners, watch as the pain spreads from the siezed up credit markets to hometown VT. Some have such short memory spans but VT was truely an awful place to make a living in the 90’s and in many respects, it still is. The only thing keeping natives heads above water is MEW and subdividing their worst piece of shit land and taking NJ clowns for everything they’re worth and then some.

Vulva…..too funny!!!

I own a Pre-Ford ‘95 Volvo (remember, Ford bought them). 260K, with minimal repairs so far, and a turning radius that’s incredible. Paid off for 9 years now. My favorite car is one that’s paid off (and runs good).

Wow, glad I caught this thread. The wife’s got me trying to sell our 98 (pre-Ford by just a hair) V70 wagon thats been paid off for 5 years. She wants a new car. Only 126K, looks new, no problems in 9 years, 23-24 avg mpg on regular, great stereo and seats, CHEAP insurance, one of the best performers ever in IIHS crash tests.

This is my the sign I’ve been waiting for. I’m pulling the for sale flyers off the windows and will deal with her anger later. Thanks HBBers.

What’s her rationale for a new car ?

That it’s new - they’re offering cheap leases with not too much down on the VolvoFord SUV and the ‘08 wagons right now.

There’s a reason nobody’s taking them up on it…

“You should see what NYC a-holes have done to housing prices in NYC.”

LMAO….. I’m up in Westchester right now and have a pretty good idea WT….

“LMAO….. I’m up in Westchester right now and have a pretty good idea WT….”

I grew up in Westchester. Even back in the 1960s and 1970s, my family couldn’t afford or just didn’t want to buy there because of the ridiculous taxes. Eventually they moved to Greenwich, CT. Smart financial move that funded my late mother’s retiredment and medical care, through the sale of the house. Now THAT was a good “buy and hold”.

Palmy, the property taxes here can only be described as criminal. Putnam is no better. Literal shacks on a lot are no less than $3000/yr in property taxes. I’ve never seen such thievery in my life(at the local level).

Why exeter, are you actually implying that taxes can be too high, and sometimes should be cut? You know - that awful “tax relief” that mucks up government’s big spending plans?

Next you’ll be saying things like “People should be allowed to keep the money they earn”, or other such non “progressive” blasphemy!

Of course I may have misinterpreted, and the “criminal theivery” you speak of is that the taxes are too LOW, and the local government is entitled to a larger share from every property owner, maybe to use on programs “for the children”?

You’re confusing and conflating my factual contention of the middleclass getting hammered with your worn out sanctimonious pandering for the wealthiest among us.

Nice try though.

I must have missed the memo.

exeter = lingus?

Welcome back, lingus!

No Exexter, I looks to me like he pointed out an inconsistency in your position(s).

I’m amazed at the cowardice of one posting as 2.

wanting to tax those who can pay instead of those who can’t is an inconsistency? wow. welcome to your world.

I want to go on record as saying that if my wife caught me driving a new “vulva” she would hang my nuts on a flag pole! Just FYI kind of stuff.

Funny you should mention that, yensoy. Here in FLA, we have a law on the books that says any family in publicly subsidized housing gets evicted lock, stock and barrel if ANY member of the family residing in the home gets nailed for drug activity, an initiative heartily backed by Governor Jebbie. And yet Governor Jeb didn’t vacate the governor’s mansion (taxpayer subsidized) when his addict daughter Noelle kept getting nabbed over and over for her drug activity. A buddy of mine wrote his a scathing letter calling him out on his hypocritical attitude. So to answer your question, apparently the Boosh lowlifes are above the law.

Don’t worry the you have seen the last Bush and/or Clinton in the White House. She will be lucky to win her own party’s nomination.

From your lips to God’s ears, BP. Both families need to leave the country, the sooner the better. BTW, Bill isn’t looking so good these days and it’s not just normal aging, IMO. Somehow I get the feeling he’s not going to be around to see the 2008 election.

I worry about Jeb running down the road but I think George screwed it up enough to keep him out.

Yes, if there’s any US left by the time George gets through with the country. Exile for both families. Get ‘em out. The best thing we could do for the illegal immigration problem, IMO.

Somehow I get the feeling he’s not going to be around to see the 2008 election.

I wonder if that would buy Hillary any sympathy votes?

From your lips to God’s ears, BP. Both families need to leave the country, the sooner the better

Time to bring back ostracism. Athenians could not make Democracy work without it.

Looks like it has to be March unless this drags out past Dec. expiration.

let’s see…that would be apprx 2 months before the Colt gun fires the blank that starts the “runners” “jumping” over the “hurdles” in China…Bang!

Now about those 2008 hedge fund “redemptions” …post “Superbowl” …or… pre commie “Olympics” decisions…decisions

I think the US Olympic team should miss their flight to the games, just like the Navy missed their Hong Kong holiday. Time for “Tough Love” for the dollar, anyway.

Big strikes are 110k@1450, 220k@1500. 1500 or bust!

I’m partially in. I’d rather be down for awhile than have no exposure if the next shoe drops before the fed meeting.

I’m hunting bby, maybe tomorrow. Looks like the 52 area will be tough.

Very low volume in the dec 1500 puts, especially with 200k open int. Waiting for a bigger bounce?

I wouldn’t think the best carnage will come until mid January and beyond

0% to 100% is good enough for me.

The question was how much money the Fed injected since March?

Money supply is for dopes. Debt IS the cause and Money Supply is an effect. Focusing on DEBT answers all the questions correctly. One needs to get into endless questions like Velocity of Money, etc.

Greenspan admitted that in early 1990s the Money Supply numbers stopped working because the banks were unwilling to lend. Don’t you guys get it: It Is the Debt, Stupid!

Jas

Wrong Jas. Money supply matters and the Fed knows it. That’s why they hid the number. Incrasing the money supply is the definition of inflation, whether you deflationists admit it or not. Why do you suppose the dollar has dropped to all-time lows against every major currency?

You focus on repos and ignore money supply because increasing money supply does not support your deflationary theory.

watcher, what they don’t show now is official government M3 calculation. Fed sloshing is different. It is very transparent. How that base is levered up into actual money supply is not determined by the Fed, which is why they have very little power to stop this train wreck. Money supply has indeed grown at an astonishing pace over last few years because of increased lending by banks. This is often stimulated by lower interest rates because more demand from borrowers at lower rates. But correlation with interest rates is not always there. When potential borrowers are maxed out, lower rates doesn’t necessarily mean more M3, as happened in the early 30’s. (This is why Keynes’ model has investment determined by “animal spirits,” not r, but that’s a different conversation.) Point is that Jas is right, Fed has increased the base by only $15 billion since March.

“Increasing the money supply is the definition of inflation, whether you deflationists admit it or not.”

Perhaps we should consult an authority on this topic.

Monetarism today is mainly associated with the work of Milton Friedman, who was among the generation of economists to accept Keynesian economics and then critique it on its own terms. Friedman and Anna Schwartz wrote an influential book, Monetary History of the United States 1867-1960, and argued that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

Perhaps the dispute here is really one about time horizons. It seems obvious that so long as expectations remain sufficiently myopic, one can create inflation by running the virtual money printing press a bit more quickly.

But as Keynes pointed out, in the long run we are all dead. Now that he himself is long dead, perhaps his big idea that one can always get out of economic jams by some combination of either running larger fiscal deficits or printing more money is about to face its most severe test to date.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetarism

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Tax-cut equals increase in debt because it is financed by Federal govt. taking on more debt, No?

How many different measure of Money Supply were created over the years and why?

Jas

You can lead a deflationist to water…

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Money Supply brainwashing is very hard to undo. How many here have looked at the YoY change in various money supply numbers for the past 40-50 years for which data is available? Ever tried to make sense of them and relating them to the inflation rate?

M3 was the most useless and there is good reason why it was discontinued. Inflationists see conspiracies where none exist.

As I said, Debt answers all the relevant questions. Increase in household debt pushes inflation rate up, is there any mystery there? Money can sit in banks!

Jas

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For once all Fed would be proven impotent when the recession leads to deflation. Yes, we will have to wait for another ten months or so. My forecast for outright CPI deflation is Sep’08.

Jas

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For Money Supply dopes —

“but the reality is that banks are hoarding cash”!

David Rosenberg: “Financial conditions have tightened — We get asked this all the time – whether the boom in the M’s is going to be inflationary, but what has happened is that the Fed’s easings have been stopped at the front door because even as the Fed has cut the funds rate, Libor has actually gone up around 20 bps since the last easing and overall financial market conditions have actually tightened about 50 bps. Year-end liquidity pressures are exacerbating the situation but the reality is that banks are hoarding cash and this has resulted in longer-term funding costs rising despite the Fed’s efforts.”

One more piece of evidence that it is the Debt (or lending) that is important and NOT the money supply.

Jas

I argue that debt IS the money supply and that, in some sense, you’re both right. It’s just that you can increase the money supply (via more debt, via lower rates) sometimes, but not all the time.

Keynes advocated fiscal (not monetary) policy. He argued that the main reason for recessions is that prices are sticky. AD falls, but with P the same, equilibrium output is much lower. Classical econ suggested equilibrium output would be the same, but prices would adjust (to be lower). Sticky prices is why Keynes advocated stimulating AD via public works projects. He looked around and saw that in the real world, sometimes investment does not increase with lower r (so you can’t stimulate AD that way), and sometimes prices do not decrease when they “should” due to a decrease in aggregate demand.

But saying prices are sticky doesn’t mean they don’t change. The usual analogy is a sticky door: once it lets loose, it flies. But it causes more disruptions than keeping things even, steven, or so argue some more modern-day economists like Stiglitz. (I generally like Stiglitz, but I’m very wary of this idea that we should micromanage the economy.)

Increasing money supply leads to an increase in prices or prevents a decrease in prices that would otherwise occur. For some reason, most people think the latter effect is good, but the former is bad. It’s really the exact same thing. Keynes’s idea of sticky prices had something to do with this thinking, but he was just pointing out something that was already there. People are emotional beings and don’t like to see their income go down year after year, even if their real purchasing power is increasing.

So, we get more and more money (debt) each year, but sometimes the creation of debt outpaces people’s ability to eventually pay off the debt. Voila. A Minsky Moment. Banks cut back on lending. Debt (money) is destroyed.

This is the main idea of Bernanke’s deft-deflation theory of recessions and depressions. Nothing original. This is just common sense. What is not common sense is that Bernanke concludes (as pointed out by PB above) that we can just print more money if we see threat of recession. Deflation can never be a problem. Tell that to Japan. The Fed needs sound banks to create money.

Unsound banks = no increase in the money supply (debt) = we are screwed.

Prices will go down. It happened in the Great Depression, and it will happen again.

Coward,

I agree that prices will fall but you will have severe inflation before deflation. It’s Weimar all over again.

It is so obviously idiotic to suggest that money supply and inflation are unrelated that I am almost loath to mention it.

European Money-Supply Growth Accelerated in October (Update3)
By Gabi Thesing

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) — Money-supply growth in the euro region accelerated more than economists forecast in October, to the fastest pace in more than 28 years, adding to the European Central Bank’s inflation concerns.

M3 money supply, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, grew 12.3 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 11.3 percent in September, the Frankfurt-based bank said today. That’s the highest rate since July 1979. Economists expected growth of 11.5 percent, according to the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ay3kHVCwiZXc&refer=home

Still see nothing fundamental to change my opinion on the price of the DJIA by New Years. Yet, I suspect that a bank could declare BK in this market and the stock could do a go-go dance.

Right now I have a Canadian low coming in (as opposed to a Mexican high) - last night I was out walking in the woods, tonight sittin’ and watching the flakes blow sideways. Hopefully another 95″ before Christmas.

Light Snow

Feels Like:
10°
Barometer:
29.66 in and steady
Humidity:
82%
Visibility:
1 mi
Dewpoint:
21°
Wind:
W 22 mph
Sunrise:
8:15 am
Sunset:
5:08 pm
135 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

…LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY…

Like the advisory is going to keep “The Dew Drop Inn” from staying open. A Manana.

day early on my 10 SOV, 10% in two days, first day no movement, spooky, then the bailout news started to arrive…..it may last a few days, global bailout of “percieved” poor banks continue. These guys are gonna feast on themselves.