The Bottom Is Going Out Of The Bottom In California
The Used House Salespeople report on October results in California. “Home sales decreased 40.2 percent in October in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 9.9 percent, C.A.R. reported today. ‘Financing issues have dogged entry-level buyers since early 2007, but they spilled over into the middle and upper-tier markets in the last few months,’ said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. ‘The decline in sales at the upper end of the market contributed to a significant decline in the statewide median price as even well-qualified borrowers had difficulty securing financing.’”
“The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 2007 was $497,110, a 9.9 percent decrease from the revised $552,020 median for October 2006, C.A.R. reported.”
“C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 2007 was 16.3 months, compared with 6.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick, 13.9 percent, or 41 out of 296 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”
The Ventura County Star. “On Sunday, Kennedy Wilson Auction Group will offer the homes for sale, beginning with minimum bids of $295,000 to $375,000. The homes this summer were priced from $537,000 to $619,000.”
“‘Basically, it’s driven by the market,’ said Rhett Winchell, president of the Beverly Hills-based auction firm. ‘Sales have slowed over the last year, so builders are looking for other options.’”
“In early November, the company sold all 45 condos remaining in a Benicia development and the remaining seven homes in a Pinole project. Some of those Northern California properties sold for $100,000 less than what they’d sold for in the summer.”
“The sagging market has also been dogged by tighter lending rules, making it difficult for those who are ready to buy, said Gustavo Ramirez, owner of Realty World/Adelante Mortgage in Oxnard. ‘In years past, all you needed is a pulse to get a loan,’ said Ramirez, who has been in the industry for 20 years. ‘That’s changed.’”
“Mark Schneipp, of California Economic Forecast in Goleta, said done right, the auction is the purest distillation of what the true market value of the homes is at this time.” “In essence the auction could ‘establish the new market value’ for homes in that part of Oxnard, he said.”
The Orange County Register. “Orange County foreclosures are rising at a faster rate than they did during the last significant housing slump, in the 1990s, according to an Orange County Register analysis of DataQuick numbers.”
“For example, last month there were more than 500 foreclosures in the county; 12 months earlier there were about 100 foreclosures in a single month.”
“In the 1990s, the growth to more than 500 foreclosures a month from more than 100 a month took 55 months.”
“Walter Hahn, a real estate economist in Irvine who has analyzed several housing cycles, said the loose lending of the boom that preceded the bust far outpaced anything in the ’90s.”
“This time around ‘anyone with a pulse’ could get a home loan, and lenders pushed low teaser rates offered for one year to five years, he said.”
“‘There is no point in fooling around with historical data, because we have never seen anything like this,’ Hahn said.”
The Voice of San Diego. “In the San Diego County breakdown of the Case-Shiller index, data shows that the lowest of the three price tiers appreciated the most during the boom, and has fallen the furthest over the last year.”
“Economists aren’t surprised. The easy financing that swung open the homeownership gate for unqualified buyers fueled a speculative market that sent the region’s house values soaring. ‘Subprime is what drove prices up so high, and what subprime has giveth, subprime has taketh away,’ Thornberg said. ‘Overall, the upper echelons of prices have to come down just as much.’”
“Bob Wilson, a real estate agent who’s been in the business since 1990. He has a condo listing in the Mid-City area in San Diego where his seller owes more than $180,000. The condo won’t likely sell for more than $107,000, he said.”
“‘It doesn’t surprise me that the bottom is going out of the bottom,’ he said. ‘They’re the people who can afford it the least.’”
“Looking at data on the region’s MLS on Tuesday afternoon, Wilson said the listings that have closed escrow in November represent just 5 percent of the total properties listed for sale. ‘That number is beyond scary,’ he said. ‘When you have such low (sales) numbers, prices can only drop.’”
“Thornberg said a region’s markets are inextricably linked. Dropping prices in an inland market pulls demand from the subsequent markets all the way to the coast. And decreased demand will lower those other markets’ prices.”
“‘[Realtors] were telling us everything was fine, but now they’re telling us all real estate is local,’ Thornberg said. ‘But when are you going to stop believing the [expletive]? The reality is your house is not worth as much as you think it is.’”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Kern County’s economy slowed between July and September as the housing market continued to slide and business and consumer confidence waned, according to a report released Tuesday by Cal State Bakersfield.”
“Despite the journal’s publisher, Abbas Grammy’s confidence that the recent spike in local home foreclosures is part of a normal cycle, he conceded that he had underestimated the severity of the downturn.”
“County records indicate that, between January and October, 2,174 Kern homes were foreclosed on. During the same period last year, the total was 255.”
“‘I did not expect the housing market to be in such a prolonged recession,’ he said, ‘and that is perhaps the only soft side of our economy — that the housing market is not going to recover perhaps until 2009.’”
The Press Enterprise. “The meltdown of Inland Southern California’s housing market and the dramatic increase in foreclosures could mean an economic hit of more than $2.3 billion next year, a study released Tuesday found.”
“The weak housing market means less construction work and fewer jobs processing loan applications and homeowner’s insurance. It also means fewer people going on spending sprees for furniture, appliances and other additions.”
“‘The last few months has been kind of slow,’ said Erick Ceniceros, general manager of Macias Furniture in Riverside. ‘People are just not buying like they used to. It’s a problem for everybody.’”
“‘All of that is probably from the decline in construction activity, residential and, to some degree, nonresidential, said ‘Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi. ‘If you cut the number of building permits, it will create some vacuum in spending. All of that construction activity generates quite a few dollars.’”
“Regional economist John Husing said the area could be hit harder than most if gas prices stay high because Inland residents earn less than those Orange and Los Angeles counties and are less able to handle a spike. That could make the economic growth Global Insight predicts harder to achieve.”
“‘That level of growth could be optimistic,’ Husing said.”
“A recession is defined as a decline in growth for two consecutive quarters. The report predicts only Pascagoula, Miss., will produce less growth.”
The Appeal Democrat. “From the lead of a sinking home market, a Yuba City real estate brokerage hopes to spin a bit of gold for some would-be house buyers.”
“Some 25 people are expected to visit houses in north and west Yuba City during a unique tour Saturday; a tour of homes whose previous owners defaulted on their payments, caught in a wave of home-loan defaults that has drastically slowed housing sales starts in the Mid-Valley and nationwide.”
“‘This is something that’s already happened and is beyond everybody’s control,’ said Margo McLeskey, the broker organizing the tour series. ‘We’re trying to help people who couldn’t afford a house two or three years ago to get into the market in a healthy, strong way.’”
“Saturday’s tour will be the second organized by ERA Showcase in the Mid-Valley since mid-October, and the brokerage plans six more events by the end of March.”
“A bus will take hopeful buyers – along with Realtors and mortgage-firm officials – on a four-hour circuit of about 10 houses in north and west Yuba City, ranging in price from $200,000 to about $450,000.”
“Third-quarter foreclosures in Yuba, Sutter and Colusa counties, for example, totaled 436 this year, compared to 161 in the same quarter in 2006, DataQuick reported last month. Statewide, home defaults jumped from 27,218 to 72,571 from the third quarter of last year to the same period this year.”
“‘There’s nothing we can do about the past, but we can hopefully help people in the future,’ said McLeskey. ‘It’s the reality of what has happened across the nation.’”
Used house salesepeople - LMFAO!!!
C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 2007 was 16.3 months, compared with 6.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago
________________________
WOW~!! Oh nevermind the stock market was up today.
The stock market will be the next bubble due to dollar devaluation and hyperinflation.
“stock market”
The once and future bubble
There will be no stock bubble over the next 10 years. Too many people still feel the pain of the tech bubble burst and with all the debt who has the money to invest in stocks ? I believe there will be a cash “bubble” over the next 3 years, because the FED is not able to print money as fast as the Dollar deflates.
“‘I did not expect the housing market to be in such a prolonged recession,’ he said, ‘and that is perhaps the only soft side of our economy — that the housing market is not going to recover perhaps until 2009.’”
___________________________________________
This “economist” predicted prices would be up this year :
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/2007/03/dr-grammy-claims-prices-will-rise-25.html
“Despite the journal’s publisher, Abbas Grammy’s confidence that the recent spike in local home foreclosures is part of a normal cycle, he conceded that he had underestimated the severity of the downturn.”
___________________________________________________
Another dead wrong economist, however, at least this one admitted he was wrong…
Husing was at this same conference and he predicted nothing but great things this year - where is his mea culpa??
______________________________________________
Regional economist John Husing said the area could be hit harder than most if gas prices stay high because Inland residents earn less than those Orange and Los Angeles counties and are less able to handle a spike. That could make the economic growth Global Insight predicts harder to achieve.”
“‘That level of growth could be optimistic,’ Husing said
“It could cut the area’s rate of economic growth to 3.5 percent from this year’s 4.6 percent, according to a survey conducted by the research firm Global Insight for the U.S. Conference of Mayors.”
That 4.6% growth in 2007 has to include the value of comercial blgds/parks and infrastructures still going up all over the IE . I know that all over the IE the commercial developers and the state/local gov’ts were still constructing like crazy even as the economy of the IE showed signs of stalling and sliding into recession in 2007. This year I saw a quarter square mile sized commercial project being hammered up in tri- cities/redlands area east of the 10/215 junction.
Also those huge fwy improvement projects in riverisde and Moreno valley are counted in the stats. Moreno valley has had a hugh amt of contruction activity mainly commercial in area east of 215 and south of 60 around the shuttered march AFB.
These mammoth projects continue to go up even as a recession looms, due to time lag and as they cannot halt in mid construction. By 2008 there will be hugh amts of empty commercial space all over the IE begging to be leased out .
“Regional economist John Husing said the area could be hit harder than most if gas prices stay high because Inland residents earn less than those Orange and Los Angeles counties and are less able to handle a spike. That could make the economic growth Global Insight predicts harder to achieve.”
This Husing is a complete moron. Actally SW riverside county residents earn on average as much or more than LA city residents. Problem is they all have to commute to lA OC and pay average$30-60 per day in gas which is one of the reasons SW riverside cty is having a RE meltdown of epic proportions.
A small silver lining to the gas spike. The commute roads fron OC to Riverside cty actually become average 10-15% less congested when gas reachs $3.50 a gal or more which means the smart gas- wise traveler using a fuel efficient vhehicle can now zoom pretty quickly during off- peak commute periods and use less gas doing so. To illustrate i once went from OC to Barstow and back a distance of 230 miles and spent only $25 in gas at ave price of 3.15 /gal back in august. That is 29 mpg using 7.93 gallons of gas and driving a toyota p/up 4 cyl ex cab during off peak commute period. I simply maintained a constant unvarying speed of 70 mph never jamming the pedals and using streamlining techiques such as lowering the truckbed tailgate.
Time for Dr. Granny to heat up his oven to 375 degrees F — the ideal temperature for roasting crow.
KahunaBear –
Another cartoon idea for ya: Do a caricature of some high profile MSM REIC spokesman (Gary Watts? Alan Gin?) sitting down to the dining table in front of a delicious plate of roasted crow.
Not sitting, standing, with Joshua Tree stumps still protruding from their backsides.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes28nov28,0,7905683.story?coll=la-home-center&vote33965998=1
And the hits keep coming! Case shiller index shows LA dropped 7% YOY in home prices in Oct. LA is falling at rate near twice the national average and statistically is near the top among all metro regions studied.
Where have all the ‘LA is immune’ folks gone? Hiding under a rock?
“County records indicate that, between January and October, 2,174 Kern homes were foreclosed on. During the same period last year, the total was 255.”
Yeah, no problems with the economy in Bakersfield - they just saw foreclosures increase 700% in a year, but otherwise they’re doing fine. Crispy, how many of those FCs are due to Crisp & Cole (and their family and employees)? Any word on the FC of Crisp’s house (last I heard the trustee sale was delayed)?
Sales is set for Early December. It will go back to the bank as the debt load and back property taxes are too high…
You go crispy!
LOL!!
CAR sent me an email a couple of weeks ago, informing me of their trademark and how I was in violation of not capitalizing their ‘r’ word. They suggested real estate agent instead, but I like UHS better.
How ’bout e-mailing them back with some suggested replacement names……capitalized of course.
‘How ’bout e-mailing them back with some suggested replacement names……capitalized of course.’
OK, that’s it. Weekend topic, starts right here. How about:
“Six Percenters”
That’s a wholesome start.
“Ball Scum”
Are you suggesting C.A.R. needs a new moniker?
How about C.A.S.P.?
House Peddling Pond Scum?
Most Uptight Trade Organization Ever? or MUTOE
Stuck on a bus for 4 hrs with a load of real estate industry people ?!? That would make listening to Fran Drescher or Gilbert Gotfried seem like a heavenly v0iced duet in comparison.
Speaking of buses, what’s worse than a bus load of realtors going over a cliff?
An empty seat. (I know, pretty damn lame)
Ben, if you visit California, it might NOT be wise to play on the street after DARK
Are you kidding? I’ll pitch my tent on CAR HQ’s lawn and push a shopping cart around all day.
Surrealtor?
Spieltor?
Crooks Are Real?
Hmm, I wish someone would take them to court over this. I am so sick of seeing the word realtor capitalized anyway, but, fundamentally, how dare they tell us what we can and cannot write.
“Want fires with that”
“Call us for all your Fraudulent Transaction needs” TM
Unbelievable that CAR sent you that, Ben.
How about Federation Leading Used Salesmanship of Houses?
aka FLUSH.
You’re now liable to get complaints from used car sales personnel that you are confusing and thus besmirching their good name.
Really? I guess they want to protect that great image they have - LMFAO!
rEALTOR = Clowns!
Wow…so now we HAVE to capitalize the word REPROBATES(tm) in California to make CAR happy Ben?
Actually, it was the r word in my banner, but I’m personally switching to Used House Salespeople forever, just to be careful.
6%ers. It works for them and it works for me
using “realtors” at all gives them way too much credit, as if they own the real estate biz .. but there are still a lot of non-realtor salespeople.
It’s good to see they care enough to write you.. I’m sure that in many cases it’s more than they’d do for their own mommas.
I have a warm place in my heart for
Realtards.
wikipedia uses lower-case twice on these pages:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realtor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Association_of_Realtors
But notice that Wikipedia capitalizes the R-word in the linkx, while the NAR homepage does not even bother to do it:
http://www.realtor.org/
Shall we capitalize it this way?
realtoR
RE Rats(tm)
Or spell it the way some of the idiots with the job pronounce it: RelatoR
I suppose Ben has to keep it clean, but the rest of us can certainly use “realtwhoRe”
Yup - that’s my favorite moniker for this group of @ssclowns.
R E A L T W H O R E S
Realtor backwards = Rot lear(ah)
Sorry, meant “Leareah”
Hi Ben:
There is no law that says you have to use other people’s trademarks correctly. Only the NAR itself is charged with that, because improper use of a trademark by its owner can help to erode the trademark’s defensibility. The only thing you CAN’T do is name your own real-estate group after theirs. That would be trademark infringement. Other than that, you really don’t need to worry about defending their trademark for them.
So, if Ben is a realtor, then he would be in violation of not capitalizing the word realtor. Is Ben a realtor? I somehow don’t think he’s a realtor. My friend is a realtor. But I wouldn’t want to be a realtor.
“CAR sent me an email a couple of weeks ago, informing me of their trademark and how I was in violation of not capitalizing their ‘r’ word.”
I find that soooo annoying, affected, misleading. Like they are Professors or Doctors or some other profession that deserves (and has earned!) capitalization.
Hey Wait! They bought and paid for that trademark!
It’s a bit like janitors referring to themselves as “Sanitation Engineers”.
Why not just call them what they are - housewhores - homyhos for short.
And one should note that while Professor, Doctor, Colonel, Bishop are used as titles, none of these groups expects the word to be capitalized when used as a word. “Maybe you should see a Doctor about that.”
The correct analogy for the Realtors is the Teamsters.
Satire is protected by the free speech clause, tell them to f themselves.
REALTWHORES(R)
The new name is much more descriptive and apropos to the services rendered.
Please keep using this terminology. Just reading it helps to frame the context of this soon-to-be extinct profession.
Used house salesepeople - LMFAO!!!
I have been lmao all day since I heard that Dicks Sporting Goods just bought Chicks Sporting Goods, yes that’s right the new name will be Chicks with Di…!
Did you ever see that frieght companys’ trucks? Skunk Dick Simon or something like that.
Not as good as a pilot I used to know….”Richard Biggs”
I’m not kidding…..his dad must have named him. Evidently, “Sue” was already taken……:)
I have the winner here.
I worked with Richard Lipps.
He was proud to be introduced as
Dick Lipps.
But, the real estate sales people are not just” used home” sales people . Remember for a number of years now the builders have been paying real estate agents to sell new home stock also and they are also selling foreclosures for the bank .
It sounds like the NAR wants to assert that the “Realtors” that are members of the NAR are different somehow because they belong to that trade association .
As far as I’m concerned ,members of the NAR ,that called themselves Realtors,(with the little blue R pin ) are more liable because they seriously breached their “Code of Ethics”,during this housing boom .
HW-
So true(Code Of Ethics comment), but I’ve always believed ethics and your character develop in your childhood. You can’t teach it to adults, it’s too late.
NAR or CAR ethics? please. (IMHO)
awaiting wipeout …I have often wondered if a person really can change their character after a certain age (verses just putting on a act for social purpose ).
When Mac and Dick McDonald were trying to decide after whom their signature burger would be named, it could have gone either way. “Would you like to supersize your Big…”
More dire news, NYT, one minute ago:
http://tinyurl.com/yt39ha
AUD has been falling for a few weeks, rising today. Increasing suspicion that Fed will cut again (and again) suggests I should buy more Australian govt bonds tomorrow morning. BUt I’m a little bit overloaded with this stuff now. Need to keep some USD for balance…
DO you use Everbank for the bonds?
The used house salespeople report on October results in California. “Home sales decreased 40.2 percent in October in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 9.9 percent, C.A.R. reported today. ‘Financing issues have dogged entry-level buyers since early 2007, but they spilled over into the middle and upper-tier markets in the last few months,’
The rich thought only the little people pay taxes and have dropping home values. Oh my, I need a drink at the country club.
Yuba City - UGH
To put it mildly.
“‘[Realtors] were telling us everything was fine, but now they’re telling us all real estate is local,’ Thornberg said. ‘But when are you going to stop believing the [expletive]? The reality is your house is not worth as much as you think it is.’”
- If you want straight talk from SoCal, Thornberg is your man.
He is a ‘NO BS’er’ kind of guy that understands that Juan & Marie Sixpack are toast.
No amount of Happy Larry (Yun) talk will help them.
Yeah, it’s nice to see Thornberg finally predicting 20-25% price drops, something he wasn’t doing a year ago.
“The condo won’t likely sell for more than $107,000, he said.”
he owes 180K, oh the privileges of the ownership society.
“‘[Realtors] were telling us everything was fine, but now they’re telling us all real estate is local,’ Thornberg said. ‘But when are you going to stop believing the [expletive]? The reality is your house is not worth as much as you think it is.’”
The second major poo-poo reference today. Gotta love Thornberg!
I thought realtors expletive were just the same thing…
Nature calling on line two!
California’s on its way to a 50% price drop from the summer peak of 2005. The bottom will be in 2009, with prices flat until 2011. Don’t expect another wild price runup after 2011,only an inflation increase plus maybe 1-2%.
tough luck for all the people who bought in Cali between 2001 to the present and did not sell. They are so screwed.
Sounds like a case of another blown out bottom -
“‘It doesn’t surprise me that the bottom is going out of the bottom,’”
…. he said as he drove the Joshua Tree into it’s final resting place. Thus goes another bottom.
Dear ex:
Are Joshua trees the kind of plant that will sprout if you cut off a piece of it and stick it in the dirt? If so, then maybe we can convert some of these obsolete unRealtors into JT plantations. They’ll have to start crawling around on their hands and knees, but they would be doing that all day trying to sell houses anyway, what with all the begging and all.
“Are Joshua trees the kind of plant that will sprout if you cut off a piece of it and stick it in the dirt?”
I never stuck around long enough to see if, after being “stuck in the dirt”, they actually sprouted. Call Gary Watts and ask him. I know taters sprout in the dark, so why not?
“Are Joshua trees the kind of plant that will sprout if you cut off a piece of it and stick it in the dirt?”
If U ever go into JT National Park and hike thru a JT desert scape it is not the JT’s that are the problem its those nasty prickly teddy bear cactus. The ones with a thousand needles bristling out. All U need to do is brush lightly against one and a damn piece of it hooks onto your shoe or clothe or even flesh and you are in a world of hurt, a walking pin cushion.
I would rather have a JT up my Wazoo than the dreadful TB cactus, which would be worse than the medieval touture rack thing.
“Are Joshua trees the kind of plant that will sprout if you cut off a piece of it and stick it in the dirt? If so, then maybe we can convert some of these obsolete unRealtors into JT plantations. They’ll have to start crawling around on their hands and knees, but they would be doing that all day trying to sell houses anyway, what with all the begging and all. ”
LOL!!
DOC
wiki says Yucca brevifolia can grow from seed or from an underground rhizome (sort of an underground stem) of another Joshua tree.
i find it hard to believe it won’t propagate from a broken piece like just about any other succulent or cactus..
Further search shows a couple other references that claim the trees can grow from cuttings.. So, the jury is still out on this vital issue..
“he said as he drove the Joshua Tree into it’s final resting place. Thus goes another bottom.”
Bwah-HaHaHaHaHaaa! Well Spoken!
Somebody better yell fire to these asshats or NOBODY is going to make it out of the theater! Holy smokes! These are devastating numbers for this point in the collapse. I think a 50% decline is best case, 70-80% is more likely the case on an overshoot.
I don’t know all the details of Prop 13, but i have a funny feeling that provisions for the reduction of property tax through reassessment for falling property values is not in it.
Worse than that, if you buy in a falling market, they are likely NOT to charge you a mere 1.3% of your purchase price as property tax. I bought a condo in Glendale CA in 1994 at 40% of its former “value,” and got a tax bill for 1.7% of my purchase price. I complained, and some adjustment was eventually made, but not the full adjustment I expected. I was too lazy to go after the small difference at that time.
It is in it, but if you have your house reassessed, if it then goes back up in value, your taxes increase along with it.
That’s what happened in the last downturn - the one I kept reminding people about whenever I heard someone say housing values only go up in california
Clearview, it’s nice to see a plausible prediction framed as a statement of fact. Bold, but appealing. OK, maybe I don’t need to read HBB any more, just memorize “50% decline, bottom in ‘09, flat till ‘11, no new bubble.” Hey, we’re going to complain if you are anything less than 99% accurate on this!
Try 60% to 75% drop. Few “real quality” buyers left with cash and excellent credit who will wnat to buy in a falling market. Smart people with proven credit patterns and cash are not fools.
why stop there? 120%. people will pay you to take the house off their hands.
my prediction is that we will see 50% decline in inflation-adjusted dollars, if using the blogosphere 10% inflation rate where people spend lots of money on food and gas. For people who don’t and so their inflation rate is about the CPI (like me, my monthly expenses are actually about the same as last year) it will be maybe 25% decline. Huge variation across the state though, heavily overbuilt places in the Central Valley will be worse, places with less new construction will be better. I do believe that some places are different and not everywhere in the US is exactly the same. sometimes “It is different here”. Anyone who has been to many places in the US would agree.
“C.A.R. reports sales decrease 40.2 percent, median home price falls 9.9 percent”
Much worse than expected, even by ‘permabear’ standards…
Wow, wow, wow…. and last year was down as well so this really is going over a cliff.
I’m starting to smell a little fear in the air.
Let’s see… that means commissions are at 53.3%…
Munch munch munch.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I’m an economist, used home salesman and forced early retirement mortgage broker and my comments have been since 04.. sell sell sell, save, save,save.. I always like the “rich dad poor dad” Robert telling his clients to harvest the equity from their homes by home equity loans or new firsts.. well robert the harvest did not require any mortgages this year and for the next 3-5 the harvest is on us!
“I’m an economist”
Careful, we don’t take kindly to that type around these here parts.
How true. Haven’t heard from that guy much lately, not since I saw a clip with him and Casey on YouTube. He’s probably still way invested in real estate.
Yikes..Stands well back and pokes you with my sharp pointy RE Rat Stick
Don’t you mean you’re an Economist (TM)? Myself, I’m a Manager (TM).
“The bottom is going out of the bottom in California”
One of the best headlines I have ever seen.
This bottomless bottom may turn out to be very tricky to call…
I heard Davy Jones Locker got foreclosed on, last week.
Suggest Arnold, C.A.R. and the mortgage brokers sponsor a “Gaint Strawberry Picker’s Festival” with beer, lots and lots of beer. Beer, Live Music and Plenty of Mortgage Contracts.
A few drugs wouldn’t hurt either.
Short of that, everyone get together to do a statewide tremble, fake a 7.8 earthquake and throw the entire State at the Mercy of Bush and FEMA
In case you were wondering just how bad the California drought is?
“The Department of Water Resources today released an initial water supply allocation for 2008 that calls for State Water Project contractors to receive just 25% of their requested supplies.”
(pdf: caution)
http://www.calwatercrisis.org/pdf/ACWA.PR.SWP%20Allocation.11.26.07.pdf
Plenty of water under the ground near Cadiz, CA. Anyone want to build a pipeline?
You are talking about the unrealized future, i’m talking of the clear and present danger.
Overzealous enforcement of the ESA is indeed a clear and present danger.
They are trying to save Red Herrings…
No thanks..We’ve been using the family’s secret slant drilled underground pipe into the Mojave River for 40 years…Whooops !
I wondered where that river went.
here in Long beach the city has water rationing in force. I have to quit wasting water on my lawns but do keep the front lawn green by wise rationed watering at night and early morning only 3 times a week. The back is kept unwatered and it is ugly brown but i do not want to see a $150 monthly water bill.
“A recession is defined as a decline in growth for two consecutive quarters. The report predicts only Pascagoula, Miss., will produce less growth.”
How they picked a navy base in Mississippi to be the only place with negative growth is bizarre. If I could go to casino heaven I would take the other side of that wager. Pascagoula is at least a moderately inexpensive city. And has crayfish, shrimp and oysters.
Pascagoula Navy Base officially closed 11/15/06. That’s why they’re willing to admit the town might go into a recession.
Aide de Comp
“Mark Schneipp, of California Economic Forecast in Goleta, said done right, the auction is the purest distillation of what the true market value of the homes is at this time.” “In essence the auction could ‘establish the new market value’ for homes in that part of Oxnard, he said.”
Aide de Comp
“Mark Schneipp, of California Economic Forecast in Goleta, said done right, the auction is the purest distillation of what the true market value of the homes is at this time.” “In essence the auction could ‘establish the new market value’ for homes in that part of Oxnard, he said.”
I live in Santa Barbara, next door to Goleta. Schneipp is a bought and paid for shill for the RE industry here in Santa Barbara county. I have saved an article from 2006 where he is quoted as an “expert” predicting rising property values. What a clown.
“I live in Santa Barbara, next door to Goleta….”
My target neighborhood. Let me know when you think you’ve hit bottom and we can be neighbors.
My memory of Goleta in the late 80s (I used to visit friends at UCSB)- in the student slum, canny homeowners were renting bedroll-sized spots in their houses (they would pack more than a dozen students in a small place). Maybe the ex-FB housing will be like that…
done right, the auction..
very true, you have to make sure that you have plenty of fake bidders, assistants in tuxes, a secret reserve price, etc.
“On Sunday, Kennedy Wilson Auction Group will offer the homes for sale, beginning with minimum bids of $295,000 to $375,000. The homes this summer were priced from $537,000 to $619,000.”
The only stuff in Oxnard that is worth more than $100K is Silver Strand, Hollywood Beach, and Mandalay Bay. And even that stuff will be creamed, but not down to $100K, more like $500K. Just MHO.
I lived at Hollywood Beach, and Oxnard Shores. Sold both homes. Silver Strand is high density, dysfunctional neighbor land. No thanks.
“‘Basically, it’s driven by the market,’ said Rhett Winchell, president of the Beverly Hills-based auction firm. ‘Sales have slowed over the last year, so builders are looking for other options.’”
Frankly Scarlett, my Dear…
Nobody gives a damn
–
CA SFH Median Price, for the Past 6M, Dropping at 30.8% Annual rate; Down 16.8% From Peak In Apr’07
Jas
–
Median Price is back to Mar’05. We have given up 2+ years worth of gains in six months. At this rate we could be back to 2001 price in a year.
Jas
Hmm, somebody wake me when LA sellers finally capitulate.
Yeah, no kidding. Try finding a starter home on the Westside for under $800K. The Kool-Aid will be drunk for many months to come, unfortunately (since me and the wife are waiting to buy).
Check zip realty in Redondo Beach, there are some SFH at around the 500k mark. Granted, not the nicest homes in the nicest areas, but the South Bay is starting to crack.
This is a piece i posted on LA Land Blog, LA Times RE blogsite, under their topic: ‘Are falling prices necessarily bad?’ This should shake up a few Angelinos. Post date nov 28th:
“Tanking prices for homes in the poorer parts of LA will lead to increasingly trashed out neighborhoods as lots of folks in the inner hood took out no doc,I/O,100%financing ,stated, and all other toxic mort products and way overpayed for POS 60-90 yr old stuccos & clapboards in such marginal areas of LA county as Bell, Maywood,Compton, Scentral, Inglewood, SGate, Wlimington, East LA. Pomona, La puente, Pacoima, Sylmar, San fernando, ect. The marginal purchasers in these areas will be severly underwater and will abandon the homes to forclosures EN MASS, which will really crater the inner LA areas and the marginal districts all over LA county…
This matters little to insulated Westsiders but overall this will create havoc in the inner city and outlying slummy districts and futher the declines in these areas into trashed out exurban-inner city slums as bad as rampart or pico union.
Just the staggering waves of foreclosures and resets alone will desecrate these already half-way slummy areas and affect the values of the nicer areas adjacent to these districts. Drastic declines in Compton will infect nearby gardena which will affect Carson which in turn will spread to torrance in a chain reaction.
LA City and the entire county is 90% strictly ordinary middle or -lower class working districts or out and out ghettos. The Westside is an anomaly for LA county, a tiny wealthy coastal fringe which is less than 5% of LA cty area and population. Sorry folks LA is not what U thought it was. It is not all Palm trees or sunny beaches …
LA Re is now tanking hard-a hideous price-gobbling monster out in the open and chewing its way thru the exurban landscape”
Hate to pile on, but new home building ain’t doing so well neither…
New home building continues its slide in California
SACRAMENTO
November 28, 2007 10:16am
• October starts down, industry says
• Some ‘modest upturns’ expected ahead in multi-family construction
Production of homes in California plunged further in October as homebuilders continued to take steps to reduce inventory before year-end, the California Building Industry Association says.
Total housing starts of all kinds in California, as measured by building permits issued, dropped 28 percent in October when compared to the same month a year ago to 7,726, according to housing permit data supplied by the Construction Industry Research Board.
Production of single-family homes fell 41 percent while construction of multifamily units decreased 10 percent when compared to October of 2006.
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=7109
Hate to pile on, but new home building ain’t doing so well neither…
I have noticed here in Santa Clarita most housing tracts are just finishing up homes already in the construction phase and not starting any new construction in the same project. Another problem for builders, trying to sell homes with vacant lots next to them. Also, once construction stops, it will take alot longer to get it going again.
I’m wondering: if a contractor stops construction on a permitted project, what happens with the permits and fees he’s paid (if they expire?)? Is that refunded, or is that another write-off?
Most of the fees paid for permit are impact fees (usually around $30,000 per house). These will usually ride with the land and are transferable. The building permit itself (around $3,000) pays for inspections and is only good for 6 months with a 6 month extension.
I’ve actually seen a code official taking away the permit from a house that was about half-built. It had been that way for months.
desmo,
Are you talking about Lennar? Those houses are crappy to being with so it’s better they don’t finish building.
“From the lead of a sinking home market, a Yuba City real estate brokerage hopes to spin a bit of gold for some would-be house buyers.”
(flashback to it’s glory days of winning it all, in 1995)
Yuba City placed dead last among 300 cities ranked by Money magazine as the best place to live in America.
That place is a cornholer’s Mecca.
“‘There is no point in fooling around with historical data, because we have never seen anything like this,’ Hahn said.”
We’ve found another honest real estate economist. Hopefully the OC Register will seek more quotes from him for future stories.
Gary Watts is strangely absent from their stable of regular MSM expert real estate commentators.
Probably bumped into one of his former clients and is now currently in traction.
“‘There’s nothing we can do about the past, but we can hopefully help people in the future,’ said McLeskey.”
I don’t see how encouraging folks to catch a falling knife is helping them.
It will generate a much needed commission check though.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22009801
Watch Yun speak at the bottom of the link…is this the best spokesman they could find?
Awww, it looks like they hired an expert from the Japanese housing bubble to represent themselves. I think we know how this all plays out…
“Fugly does not cover it.”
Courtesy of http://sonomahousingbubble.blogspot.com/
Tom Stone is REIC affiliated, if I recall. Or once was, perhaps as an appraiser.
******
fred said…
Tom, I’m curious. Why are the alt A loans “much worse than subprime”?
11/18/07 3:00 PM
Tom Stone said…
Fred,the Alt-a loans have larger balances,worse underwriting,and affect wider geographic areas.Another reaso it will be worse has to with the psychology of the market “subprime”= poor people=minorities in the minds of those who write for the PD [Sonoma Press-Democrat],and in the minds of many readers…”THEM” not “us”.Alt-a loans were used by what used to be the middle class to buy homes in the last few years as both shelter and “Investment”… The Alt-a resets are going to absolutely squash some nice areas…hello Marin County,can you hear me? I expect prices in Sebastopol,where i live to drop at least a further 40% in inflation adjusted dollars even without a severe recession,and that would not even restore the prices to historical income/price ratios or gross rental multipliers.The current deleveraging is going to severely constrict the availability of $ within 6 months,especially for real estate.the landing will be like bouncing your way down a 1,000 foot cliff with occasional pauses on tiny ledges and loose scree.Fugly does not cover it.
11/18/07 3:51 PM
Mad as hell and not taking it anymore - Kiwis are actually leaving their country to escape an amazingly overpriced housing market. Just like Californians who fled the west coast housing bubble and high California taxes to look for a better life in the red states, Kiwis are bailing to Australia in hopes of a better life.
We just signed a 12 month lease on a brand new 4/2 spec house in Bay of Islands for $400 per week, apparently the builder is the landlord. (To buy would cost more like $1000 per week at current prices.) But this is the last time. We don’t want to rent forever. We want a house for 60% off and aren’t willing to wait for 16 years for the market to bottom like the Japanese did. If the housing bubble isn’t seriously popping this time next year, we are leaving this effing smug overpriced backward country. And good riddance to the high taxes too!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=292&objectid=10479022
The grass oftentimes seems greener on the other side, and there doesn’t appear to be much to support NZ’s real estate prices, aside from the home market…
Prices of houses will crumble, but one mustn’t hurry history.
There is a local anomaly. Kiwisaver (a government program similar to 401k or IRA accounts except you contribute AFTER TAX earnings) taxes your unrealized capital gains EVERY YEAR at the regular tax rate which is up to 39%. (In the US, you don’t pay any taxes on your retirement account except for the money you take out.) That is a big difference. So it is pretty much impossible for Kiwis to save for retirement except by investing in real estate. The resistance to lowering RE prices here is huge, everyone has all of their eggs in the RE basket.
That’s why NZ is a place to go after you’ve made your money, not before or during…
“That’s why NZ is a place to go after you’ve made your money, not before or during…”
Yep. We actually have enough savings to retire in comfort in any US red state. We were just blindsided by the soaring cost of living here. No way are we going to waste a big chunk of our hard earned nest egg on some POS tract home with a corrugated iron roof.
God, that sucks. If that’s right, NZ is pretty much DIScouraging people to save. What is the benefit to participating in Kiwisaver in the first place then?
“God, that sucks. If that’s right, NZ is pretty much DIScouraging people to save. What is the benefit to participating in Kiwisaver in the first place then?”
The program has no benefit to the individual unless you can get your employer to match your contributions. It is mainly a device to set up the younger generations to be responsible for their own retirement as there is no way that Kiwi social security payments are going to keep up with inflation.
New Zealand Renter, if you want to come to the US, just be sure to do via the Mexican border. Visa? No problem-o! Green card? Ditto. You will be able to get a job, send your kids to school, get free health care at the emergency room. It’s all good!
The name alone, Kiwisaver, is stupid. Kind of like Yankeevester, or Canuckiegrubber, or Mexipincher. They could do better than that.
If the housing bubble isn’t seriously popping this time next year, we are leaving this effing smug overpriced backward country. And good riddance to the high taxes too!
We mustn’t hurry history, but I know a few Californians tired of waiting. Some have waited five years. Buy in California or retire early in a lower cost of living area. Guess what’s starting to look good. Oh, I’m too far from retirement, but real estate prices are set at the margins.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Or, “my way” — spend your spring & summer in the lower cost area, and take a vacation rental on Calif coast in winter. Winter rates are low because it’s summer when the people from Fresno and Bakersfield are forced to escape to the coast.
Short article about the Lennar community in Palm Springs where they pulled out before completing the amenities. Now they’ve let the city owned golf course go. The comments are great, too. This does not bode well for PS. http://tiny.cc/1nj7S
“If they don’t do these things, then we call the bonds,” he said. “I don’t think they want that to happen.”
Call the bonds. While they’re still worth something. That dying golf course sounds like a nightmare.
munch munch munch
Man… this is a long show. Just wheel the popper over.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Let me know when one of your mid-century masterpieces gets a 50 percent haircut…..
What’s really driving me nuts is that rents are going up because so many landlords are kicking out their tenants in order to sell their houses. This creates an artificial shortage of houses, since these stupid edifices just sit there empty for 6-12 months before the seller finally transfers the burden to a new LF (lesser fool).
I know it’s a temporary phenomenon. It will reverse once house prices go down, people start buying again, and all these new condos/townhouses get finished, but it’s still very annoying to me and to my pocket book.
V -
Perhaps you should just be thankful you’re not a new house owner, paying 2x comparable rent every month on a fast declining asset.
Rents begain going up in SF beginning in Q2 2006, significantly, for the first time in five years in part because fewer people were buying houses.
Those pressures are going to be around for a number of years.
Based on posts here in recent weeks, rents already are going down where the collapse of the bubble is in more advanced stages. Like most of AZ and FL and in the crappier parts of CA.
Rent on the SF peninsula, San Mateo County has been going down. I’ve seen rent reduced, $300.00 off for your first 3 months, even Section 8s accepted.
Or your income?
I told an SF realtor / six percenter / used house salesperson, probably about a year ago, that they could begin to hedge their future income stream by using the S&P/Case-Shiller indices.
Shiller talking about hedging one’s real estate in the video below…
******
Hedging Your House
Yale economist Robert Shiller is suggesting investors use his index as a hedging mechanism to protect their homes from losing value. He discusses this mechanism along with Lou Brien, of the DRW Trading Group, and CNBC’s Diana Olick.
Last Update: Wed. Nov. 28 2007 | 1:13 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=600945965
“use his index as a hedging mechanism”
That would have been the thing to do before his index started dropping at a record pace…
“‘There is no point in fooling around with historical data, because we have never seen anything like this,’ Hahn said.”
FINE-A-DAMN-LY Someone says it in big print media. So calling all you junior reporters, from this day forward call all these dip shits in RE that spout “fundamentals” it’ll rebound in the spring BS to the carpet. Go ahead and make a name for yourself.
“Every swan ever seen before this jet black one was as white as snow.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-relocate28nov28,1,5812117.story?coll=la-headlines-california
La city council approves 78 unit condo project in valley village after develpoer made to provide $20,000 more in relocation money to 17 tenants.
Not an LA landlord or develper so this issue not on my radar but Valley village/studio city/north hollywood is a multi-unit hotzone, and a target- rich environment for apt/condo builders.
Well, it *was* a target-rich environment while money was cheap.
I have no idea what they must be thinking if they are planning to build a condo project out there in East Egypt right now. Valley Village is like, so totally, East Egypt, if you’ll excuse my Val talk…
My parents live in ‘Valley Village’, and some of the SFH’s are in great neighborhoods. Older homes off the street, with walls of vines, that block a street view of the home.Lots of privacy and nice lots (circa 40’s-50’s) I was just there for Thankgiving, and they’ve expanded the area called Valley Village. . The high density areas are dreadful.
Valley Village=Pretenious renaming for feel good r e effect.
I thought the Russians and Romanians rule there.I’d better catch up.
California’s 16 month inventory levels aren’t too bad …. here in South Florida, they’re close to 30 month.
Going on the beachfront from building to building, the inventories are even worse - up to the 60 month level.
if you own a house, go short.
if you want to own, go short.
if you have to sell, lower the price.
Shiller gots it all figured on the option.
Gary Watt’s site. For those that miss him.
http://www.impactre.com/
email EMAIL US: info@impactre.com
Is he smiling or pooping?
Wow- this is much worse than I expected for this stage in the game in California. Not many people are going to be able to argue that the bubble isn’t bursting with the 9.9% year over year drop.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
The Chicago area numbers were released today as well. Sales dropped 27% in October year over year. Home prices actually rose 3.1%. That will change soon enough. Inventory continues to rise. The sellers here in Chicago are just more stubborn than those in California (who seem to be throwing in the towel.)
“throwing in the towel” might have more to do with REOs and the prevalence of no-down purchases than with personality differences.
this is the function of the Sovereign Bailout…
Money is coming from the Home Loan Banks.
“A recession is defined as a decline in growth for two consecutive quarters. The report predicts only Pascagoula, Miss., will produce less growth.”
Good ole’ Pascagoula! I met my first wife and mother of my only child there in 1981. It was,as I referred to it then and since, the ‘armpit’ of the earth. Fond memories I have, but unfortunately I don’t remember much of it as I was in the Navy and 20 years old.
I do remember the beer machine in the barracks and bars that never closed…..
Pascagoula can’t be the armpit of the earth
Fresno CA is
You will have to be the stinky feet or something
There are 2 armpits.
When I was a child, NJ was the armpit of America (look at the US map, it’s obvious). Now that Henry Krajewski doesn’t have his smelly pig farm in Secaucus any more, I guess NJ can claim its license-plate status (”Garden State”) and abandon the armpit honors to Fresno and Pasgoul. As Big V points out, there are not three armpits.
From Fresno on up to and including Stockton is the butt crack of the earth..
Hey Ben
“CAR sent me an email a couple of weeks ago, informing me of their trademark and how I was in violation of not capitalizing their ‘r’ word. They suggested real estate agent instead, but I like UHS better.”
How about REALBAITOR ?
REALyouTURD
San Francisco a santuary city is in financial distress. I heard that on the Radio. Wait till state kicks in with the cuts.
Real estate is contagious and will likely polarize citizens against cukoo schemes and plans by politicans.
Sanctuary
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctuary_%28novel%29
I have an offer to move to Tucson…I cant believe how ridiculous high prices are their. I do NOT see people droppping their prices…this is insane…anyone have insight into tucson mkt…they appear to be immune…this is from a realtor who has been ‘helping’ me understand the mkt…..house listed at 700K 2400 sq feet!!
They bought it 4 years ago for $449,500….I will call the agent, but, when our market is not as drastic as the ‘news’ markets…we still have lots of million dollar homes selling for 95% of asking…this might sell in the high 500’s, but, probably not lower. Views cost alot in Tucson and north foothills are primo because people just value them and their school district
Dear Mr. Thumb:
I don’t know if you’ve been reading this blog for long, but if you check back, you will usually see an AZ thread at least every other day. Tucson is a very cheap place to rent, so don’t worry about it. Just rent yourself a nice place, wait for the AZ “immunity” to pass, and save your $$. Life is good.
a make a good salary and saved my whole life….i should be able to afford a home.
rent seems to be 700-1200 for 1-2 bedroom apt in good part of town. looking for furnished apt….people are charging 2400 for crap.
I am really thinking of turning the job offer because of the insanity….i have an offer in portland or too….i think its worse there.
I suppose it doesn’t make sense to move to a bubble area if you don’t have to.
don’t throw away your hard work and savings in a home that will lose value.
“Wilson said the listings that have closed escrow in November represent just 5 percent of the total properties listed for sale. ‘That number is beyond scary,’”
When I read this quote, my blood floze in its veins.
5 percent???
OMG…for the first time, I’m saying it.
This thing is going to crash, for sure. I was always guessing around March of next year (2008). It may happen sooner than that.
There have been other references to 16 months supply in CA in this thread. Isn’t 5% per month a 20 month supply?
Supply hasn’t spiked, but sales have dropped off a cliff. Remember those that said the August declines were temporary and would be made up in September. Obviously wrong again.
If all the homes that people would like to sell were on the market, there would be far more than a 20 month supply based on the current rate of sales. This still has a long, long way to unwind.
Will CEO’s be held to account. Unlikely with the SEC in their back pocket.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2007-11-28-proxy-access_N.htm?csp=1
Following a contentious hearing Wednesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted a rule that will make it more difficult for shareholders to nominate their own candidates to serve on the boards of companies.
By a 3-1 vote along party lines, the SEC reinforced its long-standing position that public firms can rebuff shareholders’ attempts to get their own director candidates on proxy ballots. A federal appeals court decision last year upended the SEC’s position, creating the possibility that shareholder activists could force their candidates onto proxy slates through litigation
Shareholder advocates agreed. “The SEC should no longer be allowed to refer to itself as ‘the investor’s advocate,’ ” says Nell Minow, editor at The Corporate Library. “The only thing more appalling than this obstruction of the rights of shareholders is the flimsiness of its supporting arguments.”
“This is a sad day for shareowners,” says Ann Yerger, executive director of the Council for Institutional Investors. “It makes no sense for the commission to do the wrong thing now but promise to try to do the right thing next year.”
bah.. everyone wants to have their cake and eat it too..
Nobody wants SEC / government intervention until they’ve got a bone to pick. Then they beg for it. Govt becomes the savior and problem solver.
Read the prospectus, and if one disagrees with company policy sell or don’t buy it in the first place.
Wall Street Gangsters have everyone on the payroll.
Is anyone here planning to attend the Oxnard auction Sunday? I would be very curious to know the results? I suppose one could call Kennedy Wilson…
SOunds like CA is going to get a big housing enema. For the record, maybe it will keep them and all of the other Third World western states from sending invaders and barbarians here into the eastern USA. I hate saying this, but I’m glad that this whole housing bubble is melting down. This is going to make a lot of people mad on this blog but I’ll say it anyways; West Coast and western Red State people are rude and obnoxious. At least the East Coast has class (even if they are a bunch of elitists) and the Confederate states are kind of polite (even though they fight among each other constantly). But the western states, man I have no idea what planet they came from. It doesn’t surprise me that the housing bubble probably originated out there. I swear to God the western states must have an average IQ of 45. If I was the President of the USA I’d boot you out. Everyone is talking about Red States and Blue states seceding and how people in ID and MT and AZ and so forth are bad@$$es and have stockpiles of beans and noodles and airguns; as president I’d be more than happy to throw all the welfare queens out right before I throw the Confederate 3rd world states out. Everything west of MN,IA,MO,AR,LA, thrown OUT. If you’re so libertarian, then why do you take $$$$ from Uncle Fed? Maybe when you get enough Hambuger Helper and Spam you’ll be magically Libertarian. I think this suburban cowboy mentality is part of the housing problem; they want a cowboy lifestyle because they’re so moral and free and tough (even though they are mostly Creme Eggs) but they want a Hummer and a McMansion and $.50 gas and gimme WalmartWear from China and DVDs from Indonesia. And they don’t want to pay for it and they want a job that pays them $80000 in sports health management for LMNOP Inc. I’m not trying to insult anyone here personally, but quite frankly, I think this housing bubble has done stuff to people that makes me very mad and this has been going on for too long. Keep the Applebees cowboys and weird people from the western states out. OUT OUT OUT OUT!
Hear! Hear! Finally, someone who agrees with me - Nebraska SUCKS! Iowa ROCKS!
Man, this is one tough crowd.
When checking the comps on that unit mentioned in the Voice of San Diego story, I ran across the same floorplan where the listing agent was offering 6% to the buyer’s agent last year. According to the MLS, he ended up representing the buyer as well. It closed escrow in 4/2007 for $175k. Three months later the same floorplan sold for $125k.
You are not the only ones outraged. Not all of us are trying to push people over the edge, but I understand the anger and frustration. Some of us “used home sellers” are just as pissed about our industry. I talk most people out of buying. The reason only 5% of the inventory is selling is because most are listening.
As for car’s trademark, tell ‘em to stick it. They have no case.
““C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 2007 was 16.3 months, compared with 6.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago.”
“The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 2007 was $497,110, a 9.9 percent decrease from the revised $552,020 median for October 2006, C.A.R. reported.”
Pardon my linear mentality here but doesn’t a 150%+ increase in supply justify a slightly larger price cut than 10%?
NAR uses median price. Although overall sales may have virtually stopped, just few high-priced home sales can keep the median sales price high, or even raise it.
So, … when do all the good used car deals hit the la market. When do those REALTWHORES(r) start losing their toys?
Did anyone else catch this insightful highlight in CAR’s report:
In short, interest rates on 30-year and ARM&Legs are flat y-o-y. Yet, inventory has spiked to 16 months and prices have fallen nearly 10%.
Just imagine if we had a responsible Fed raising rates rather than cutting rates this summer. How much would we be down already this year?