The Housing Bubble

The Sun Journal reports from Maine. “Golf course owner Gard Craw is an old hand at reading the green. So, despite the softness in the local housing market, he’s ready to commit upward of $20 million in a new residential subdivision across from his Apple Valley Golf Course. ‘You do it when the times are bad,’ he said, noting that contractors are very competitive when the housing industry slows. ‘Besides, it took me three years to get to the point where I’m at.’”

“When Craw purchased the golf course four years ago, he had hoped to build another nine holes across Pinewoods Road, financed by a smaller residential complex. ‘When I looked at it from a return on investment, the (larger) residential development won out,’ he said.”

“Once the first phase is sold, the next phase will begin. Craw said he knows there are plenty of unsold homes on the market right now, but he’s pretty sure Apple Valley Estates will move.”

“‘You can’t do something conventional,’ he said. ‘There’s too much inventory out there.’”

The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. “The median price for a single-family house in Massachusetts slumped 6.5 percent in October, the biggest percentage decline this year, according to a report on the state’s housing market.”

“The Warren Group said the median house price last month was $290,000, down from $310,000 in October 2006. House sales plunged 17.1 percent, to 3,646 in October compared with a year ago.”

“As for the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, it said the October median selling price for a Bay State condo was $279,950, up 7.3 percent from October 2006, and the volume of Bay State condos sold in October was 1,309 units, down 13.2 percent from October 2006.”

“‘While sales were down last month, it is important to note that year-to-date residential sales activity is off only 2 percent from this time last year,’ Doug Azarian, president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, said in a statement. ‘For qualified buyers, this remains a good time to buy.’”

The Wall Street Journal on New York. “Even as the national housing market has been hit by slow sales and falling prices, Manhattan has continued to shine. But now its light may be dimming. Fewer apartments are being sold, 858 went into contract in September, a 9.9% drop from a year ago and the lowest total in two years, according to Corcoran Group, and the inventory of unsold apartments is increasing.”

“Prices The median price of a Manhattan apartment fell 3.4% in the third quarter from the previous one, according to Radar Logic. The firm says properties are sitting on the market longer, too, an average of 123 days, up from 94 days at the peak of the market in 2005.”

“Developers used to seeing yet-to-be-built apartments get snapped up sight-unseen are increasingly offering incentives, from help with closing costs to museum memberships, to jump-start sales. ‘Buyers are more hesitant,’ says Hall Willkie, president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens.”

“One big factor is how much money New York’s army of financial executives will make this year, given the wild swings on Wall Street. ‘Right now, everyone’s waiting for bonus time,’ says Stephen Kliegerman, executive director of development marketing for brokerage Halstead Property. ‘No one knows what to expect.’”

“In recent months, the continuing strength of its real-estate market has…led many local real-estate professionals to contend that Manhattan is immune to the forces that have battered much of the rest of the country.”

“But few independent experts buy that argument. Christopher Mayer, a Columbia University professor and director of the school’s Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, says the idea that Manhattan will continue to boom amid a nationwide housing bust is ‘wishful thinking.’”

“‘I certainly don’t think Manhattan is recession-proof,’ Prof. Mayer says. ‘History just says that’s a wrong argument.’”

“Some buyers are already finding bargains. When hedge-fund executive Jerry Lavish and his wife, Stanka, started looking at apartments earlier this fall, they liked a three-bedroom co-op on East 72nd Street, but not its $1,775,000 price tag.”

“Two weeks later, however, the sellers cut the price to $1,575,000, and the Lavishes jumped; they’re expecting to sign a contract today. Mr. Lavish, who says he did extensive online research before making an offer, believes the same property might have gone for $1.9 million a year ago.”

“‘We’re getting this apartment for probably 2004 pricing,’ he says. (The downside: The Lavishes are listing their current apartment for $475,000, nearly 10% below their original asking price.)”

“Sellers and local brokers point to August or September as the start of the shift. Sean Connell and his wife listed their pied-à-terre on East 28th Street for $495,000 in May. They quickly accepted an offer for $480,000, but their co-op board rejected the buyer.”

“By the time the apartment went back on the market in August, the market had changed and the price was too high; earlier this month, the couple cut the price to $450,000. ‘Since the summer, [buyers have] been a little more cautious,’ says their broker, Carlos Saavedra.”

“Supply, however, is increasing. The city approved the building or conversion of 14,748 condo and co-op units in Manhattan in 2006; citywide, such approvals were up 75.8% from 2005. And more are in the pipeline. ‘I would not want to be owning a project that’s coming on the market in the next year or two,’ Prof. Mayer says.”

“The impact of the increased supply is already being felt. A handful of new developments have begun to offer incentives to attract buyers, something nearly unheard of at the height of the boom. Several projects are offering beefed-up commissions, or even gift cards, to brokers who sell units.”

“Blair MacInnes is handling the sale of her 85-year-old mother’s Upper East Side apartment; she listed the two-bedroom co-op in September for $2,095,000, the price recommended by her broker.”

“‘We were very worried about putting the apartment on the market,’ Ms. MacInnes says, ‘but we had been told by any number of people that the exception to the housing crisis had been Manhattan.’”

“The apartment drew little interest, however, and Ms. MacInnes and her mother agreed to cut the price, first to $1,995,000 and then again a few days later to $1,779,000, a total cut of more than 15%.”

“Although the new price has generated more interest but no solid offers, Ms. MacInnes says she and her mother aren’t in a rush to sell. ‘But do we want to wait until the market bounces back?’ she asks. ‘Who knows when that will be?’”

The Times News from Maryland. “The numbers of foreclosures are reaching those of divorce rates. At Allegany County Circuit Court, a civil clerk who is charged with various duties spends nearly 50 percent of her time on them.”

“A court spokesman said he’s seen the number of foreclosures increase over the last five years to the point where attorneys from the metropolitan areas are paying couriers to drive here with paperwork rather than risk sending it through the mail.”

“‘It’s catching up with divorces,’ he said of the foreclosure rate.”

“As the new president of the Historic Highlands Association of REALTORS, Melanie Pratt Dimaio, a real estate agent for 14 years, is well aware of the issue but finds it to be much better here compared to other areas.”

“‘We are very fortunate in our area to only be experiencing a slight increase in foreclosures, mainly in the low- to mid-price ranges,’ she said in a prepared statement. ‘Our local foreclosure rate is not nearly as high as in the rest of the state of Maryland.’”

“‘Local lenders are to be given much of this credit for their conservative lending and appraisal procedures versus Internet lenders who give consumers enough rope to hang themselves with by using over-inflated appraisals from out-of-town appraisers and crazy loan programs,’ she continued.”

“A report issued in October by the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development, said the ‘growth in mortgage loan delinquency and foreclosures’ actually began in the second quarter of 2005 when the housing boom slowed not only in Maryland, but also across the country.”

“A National Delinquency Survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association found the number of delinquencies in the state reached an all-time high in the second quarter of 2007, which runs from April through June. At 43,980, that’s an increase of 19.8 percent from the first quarter of the year and 30.8 percent more than 2006.”

“Baltimore City along with Prince George’s, Montgomery, Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties have the majority of all foreclosures in Maryland at 75.2 percent.”

“The story is much worse in nearby Washington County, which ranks third in the state for the number of foreclosures. With 125 in the second quarter, that’s a 12,400 percent change from the first part of this year and 6,150 percent change from the second quarter of ‘06.”

From ABC News 7 in Virginia. “One of the communities hardest hit by the foreclosure problem, Prince William county, isn’t just having an impact on those who default on their mortgages, but those trying to sell their homes.”

“After nearly 40 years of memories in a home that is paid off, Larry and Diane Shandor are struggling to sell their house now, because of others in their neighborhood who can’t pay their mortgage.”

“‘How can you compete with a foreclosure home,’ said Larry Shandor. His problem is an unfortunate byproduct of the mortgage crisis; those trying to sell homes in a market flooded with foreclosures.”

“‘This is the worst I’ve ever seen it,’ said Joe Botta from the Prince William County Financial Education Office.”

“New developments in the county continue to bloom. Where sales are soft, homes are still selling.”

“Pable Cava priced his home to compete with the foreclosures and finally sold it after months on the market. ‘I just had to get rid of it. My wife was sick.’”

“The Shandors had to do the same, reduce the selling price of their home. ‘What can you do? It’s just what’s happening right now.’”