A Continual Slide We’re Still Going Down
The East Valley Tribune reports from Arizona. “Hundreds of Valley real estate agents rallied in Scottsdale on Friday in hopes of kick-starting the sluggish real estate market by thinking positive and being proactive. During the boom, real estate agents could sit and wait for buyers and sellers to come to them, said Rosey Koberlein, CEO of Tucson-based The Long Companies.”
“Now, it’s time to stop being passive, Koberlein said. ‘You know your market. You know your statistics. Be confident,’ she said.”
“Whatever business people are in, they need to think thoughts that will empower them to create positive results, self-described LifeSuccess consultant Nicholas Tutora told the audience. ‘Don’t wait for the ‘experts’ to tell you where the market is,’ he said.”
CNN Money reports on Arizona. “When the market began its downturn in early 2006, some of the smartest economists in the country, as well as the CEOs of major home-builders and the National Association of Realtors, predicted that prices would rebound by mid-2007. Instead the experts have been humbled by the depth and breadth of the downturn.”
“In some cases the inventory glut will take years to clear, even at heavily discounted prices. Phoenix currently offers about 55,000 listings, the highest in the Arizona capital’s history, in addition to an estimated 15,000 spec houses.”
‘”Builders have now dropped new three-bedroom, single-family homes as low as $130,000,’ says Frank Owens, a local real estate analyst and headhunter for the home-building industry. ‘That’s unheard of. The lowest we’d see a year ago was $200,000.’”
The Arizona Republic. “Arizona’s mortgage regulator has shut down a handful of Valley firms for fraud and other illegal lending practices this year, but at least 40 other investigations are stalled because there is no money to fund them.”
“The Arizona Department of Financial Institutions has only two consumer investigators to keep up with those complaints, more than 800 of them this year. Five years ago, the state agency received fewer than a few hundred mortgage complaints a year.”
“Dozens of investigations into mortgage fraud and other bad loans are waiting until the agency’s investigators can get to them. A typical mortgage investigation takes months or more to track because of extensive paper trails and the many people involved.”
“‘We were shorthanded to begin with, but now we have run out of money,’ said Felecia Rotellini, superintendent of the Department of Financial Institutions.”
“It’s the biggest crackdown in the state’s lending industry since the real-estate recession and savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s.”
“‘It’s just the tip of the iceberg,’ Rotellini said about the firms the agency has been able to stop from operating illegally.”
“Mortgage fraud and other bad loans from many of the firms recently shut down or under investigation are contributing to the Valley’s 15-year foreclosure high that is dragging down the housing market.”
“‘People came into the mortgage business and did some bad and ugly things,’ said Amy Swaney, past president of the Arizona Mortgage Lenders Association.”
“Legislation to license the almost 15,000 mortgage officers and originators in Arizona stalled with the bill that would have given the Department of Financial Institutions more resources for investigations. The number of mortgage brokers and branches that the Department of Financial Institutions regulates has more than tripled since 2001, while its budget has remained almost flat.”
“‘Mortgage fraud can be traced to a lack of oversight and honesty in Arizona,’ said Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, Chandler, who backed the mortgage-fraud legislation. ‘We have to license the people taking borrowers’ personal information and working with them to make one of their biggest financial decisions, getting a mortgage. Real-estate agents have to be licensed, and no one says that’s a bad thing.’”
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “The price of existing and new homes sold in the Las Vegas Valley during the third quarter dropped 8 percent or more in 29 of 51 ZIP codes, a real estate information service reported. The third quarter numbers released by DataQuick reflects discounting by homebuilders and the increased willingness of owners of existing homes to cut prices to make a sale.”
“Las Vegas housing analyst Dennis Smith said he’s not surprised by the drops reported in many neighborhoods. His own statistics for the third quarter, he said, show a 7.9 percent drop in new-home prices from the third quarter of 2006. Prices of existing homes fell 10.6 percent, he said.”
“‘It is going to go lower,’ Smith said. ‘Like all statistics, they lag a little bit.’”
“The biggest drop in prices was recorded in 89118, in unincorporated Clark County. The area bounded by Interstate 15, Tropicana Avenue, Warm Springs Road and Rainbow Boulevard saw its prices dip 27 percent to $185,895.”
“In 89146, which is bordered by Charleston, Rainbow and Decatur boulevards and Spring Mountain Road, prices fell 21 percent to $225,000. The biggest decline in Henderson was in 89015, in the eastern part of the city, where prices fell 17.5 percent to $259,950.”
“In North Las Vegas, the steepest decline was in 89081, which fell 12 percent to $275,500.”
“The number of foreclosure filings in the Las Vegas Valley increased in the third quarter, according to Realtytrac. The Las Vegas market had 14,948 foreclosure filings on 11,482 properties from July to September, the firm reported.”
“That’s a 29 percent increase from the second quarter this year, and a 200 percent gain from the third quarter of 2006.”
“The increasing number of foreclosures has prompted national lenders and asset management companies to schedule an auction of more than 200 foreclosed-upon homes at noon Sunday, Dec. 2. Dave Webb, a principal with Hudson & Marshall, said the foreclosure filings show no sign of slowing. Investors composed nearly one-third of Nevada’s defaulted loans.”
“‘There was a lot of overbuilding combined with investors using risky subprime adjustable rate mortgages to purchase homes,’ Webb said.”
“Buyers speculated that home prices would continue to rise and that they could easily refinance or sell at a profit, he said.”
“‘That didn’t happen, and now Nevada is overburdened with foreclosed homes,’ Webb said.”
The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “Federal reports Thursday reflecting the nation’s housing slump came as no surprise to a Nevada expert who has watched the state stumble for months on end.”
“‘It’s nothing new. The local numbers have been showing it for quite a while,’ said Brian Kaiser, analyst at the Center for Regional Studies on the University of Nevada, Reno campus.”
“For the third quarter in Washoe County, the median sales price of a new home fell 11.8 percent, to $351,840, from a year earlier, according to a report earlier this fall by Kaiser, who draws his conclusions from Washoe County assessor’s office data.”
“Kaiser said there’s no question the housing market locally and nationwide is hurting. ‘I don’t think we’ve hit bottom yet,’ he said. ‘It’s nothing drastic, but a continual slide we’re still going down.’”
The Lahontan Valley News from Nevada. “Due to the nationwide slump in the residential housing market, plans to build a massive industrial, commercial and residential project in Hawthorne have been indefinitely postponed.”
“The project, which would have included…upwards of 2,000 housing units, has been postponed ‘because of the plummeting housing market,’ according to Shelley Hartmann, executive director of the Mineral County Economic Development Authority.”
“Hartmann said Bob Conner, CEO of Peninsula Floors, Inc., of Livermore, Calif., the company that was to build the project, ‘is rethinking the project but has put it on hold until the economy gets better.’”
“‘Mr. Conner told me that his company’s sales volume is about 50 percent off from what it was last year. But he told me he hopes to eventually build the project in Hawthorne, but on a smaller scale,’ Hartmann added.”
“Mineral County Commissioner Jerrie Tipton said, ‘The housing downturn is taking place in Nevada and all over the United States. People are purchasing less flooring and building materials, and Peninsula Floors just doesn’t think it is time to start up this big project.’”
“Fallon attorney Mike Mackedon, who has represented Mineral County in its dealings with Conner and Peninsula Floors, said, ‘There’s a crisis in the housing industry, and it has been sudden and reflects a steep decline. Peninsula Floors Company has seen recent layoffs.’”
“The continuing decline in home construction and sales has affected Nevada’s overall economy as well as the state’s housing market.”
“The Nevada Department of Taxation reported Thursday that taxable sales in the state fell in September, the six consecutive month showing a decline. A prime reason for the slump was caused by construction-related downturns in the housing sector, the department indicated.”
‘Builders have now dropped new three-bedroom, single-family homes as low as $130,000,’ says Frank Owens, a local real estate analyst and headhunter for the home-building industry. ‘That’s unheard of. The lowest we’d see a year ago was $200,000.’
Uh huh, how many FBs does that create? And more to come:
‘State trust land will be in play next year in the northeast Valley with close to a dozen auctions planned for more than 2,400 acres. That includes a key site on the Phoenix side of Scottsdale Road. On Jan. 23, the Arizona State Land Department will auction 112 acres in a 99-year lease. The Paradise Ridge parcel, valued at $32 million, is northwest of Loop 101 and Scottsdale Road.’
‘CARSON CITY (NV) — State government’s financial woes worsened Thursday, when the Department of Taxation released reports showing tax revenue falling further behind projections. Revenues from four major taxes — sales, business payroll, insurance and real property — were below expected levels for July through September, the department announced Thursday. As a result, Gov. Jim Gibbons might have to cut more than the anticipated $285 million from the state’s $6.8 billion, two-year budget when he hacks state spending in January.’
‘It is certainly going to make the hole bigger,’ state Budget Director Andrew Clinger said.’
Don’t know the details on the new 3 bedrooms at 130K but three years ago you were talking about $160K for a 1800sqft home on a small lot, 4 bedroom 2 bath with living room , family room, master suite for adults. 2 car garage std.
The quote implies that the prices of new three bedroom single family houses have dropped as much as $130,000. It’s not the same as saying new homes are going for as low as $130,000. However, drive between Phoenix and Tucson on I-10 and you will see advertisements for new houses as low as $130,000. I think those are closer to Casa Grande or Eloy.
Hmm, makes $350K in Queen Creek kind of a tough pill to swallow. Especially since Casa Grande has at least a bit of a claim to “real town” status.
Also not 35 mile drive to I-10 as is much of Queen Creek’s hellish commute down to lane roads complete with 4-way stop signs at most intersections.
desertfox
“I think those are closer to Casa Grande or Eloy.”
Darn right, close to some great skydiving!
I stayed in Eloy overnight once driving from Dallas to San Diego. It was a tiny desolate town. Of course that was in 1987. Is it a bedroom community of Tucson now?
Still tiny desolate town. Only now it has subdivisions baking in the sun.
desertfox
Bill (maryland), I think the Frank Owens statement means exactly that prices have dropped TO $130K rather than BY $130K, although we’d have to ask him to be certain. I agree with you that there are plenty of 3BR houses outside PHX for $130K. Heck, in 2004 I lent someone money to buy a $117K new 3BR house in Superior.
It’s funny, here in NNV, people are starting to realize it’s bad, but no one I talk to has any understanding of how bad it really is, and how much worse it’s going to get. I’m getting phone calls almost daily for free advice or my predictions for the year ahead. Today I’ve become the once ostracized nut-job who ranted a doom and gloom message, to the all wise oracle. Still, the question that pisses me off the most is the “how did you know?”, to which I hotly reply “how could you not?”
My standard statement is, “you had to be a genius to see this coming. Or at least a person with a little common sense.” You should see the stinkface that this creates. It’s wonderful.
Well earned ex-nnv.
I’m not looked at so crazy either.
But no one calls me an oracle. What amazes me is people out there honestly don’t see the craziness. Its not that they have no opinion(that would be ok), but that they honestly think we’ll see a recovery soon! ugh…
Its falling apart and won’t end soon. The latest proposals to ‘freeze loans’ will only tighten up the credit market. (Its getting dire as is…)
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil,
I’d love to believe that the lending is drying up…unfortunately, the insanity continues.
Whenever I smell fraud, I do report. Not enough oversight (undersight) to handle those that continue to perpetuate the greed.
I wish I could exist in a world where greed was not dominate, yes, a fantasy.
Freezing loans?
Raise your hand if you believe this will happen. (Not you).
I believe (sounds like a song), many have gone too far, spending beyond their needs.
Credit crunch does NOT describe the totality of this fiasco.
Best,
Leigh
Leigh,
I agree lending is still out of hand… but every few months, it tightens up a notch. Do I really think all loans will be frozen? No. But enough to scare investors; they’re already really spooked.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil and Leigh,
I expect that rate freezes will be offered to extend the life of loans that might cause buybacks. They might also get extended to stave off defaults till after bonus season. If you aren’t upsidedown expect the bank to go after you with guns a blazing though.
So, this will make some kind of difference. There will also be some additional screwing of us savers. Higer taxes, lower SS… who knows what will get f’d up to extend this mess a little longer.
Just waiting for the govrnment to monitize more debt.
This is getting scary fast. Bank failures galore.
Like always I’d just like to thank Uncle Al.
ex-nnv,
Despite their acknowledgment that you have in fact called it correctly, they still won’t accept “how much worse it’s going to get”, will they?
gov duffers always have great timing
State trust land will be in play next year in the northeast Valley with close to a dozen auctions planned for more than 2,400 acres.
Hundreds of Valley real estate agents rallied in Scottsdale on Friday in hopes of kick-starting the sluggish real estate market by thinking positive and being proactive.
In other news, I’m planning a rally in DC to levitate the pentagon by meditation. I bet my rally will get better results.
hahaha
I’ll help! We can use the “attraction principle”; with that, anything is possible!
Yea, lets use the ’secret’ all together now…LIFT
““Whatever business people are in, they need to think thoughts that will empower them to create positive results, self-described LifeSuccess consultant Nicholas Tutora told the audience.”
I hear drugs and alcohol can help with this…
Whenever I see the words “empower”, “synergy”, “life” , and “consultant” I run.
You can almost just make up nonsensical sentences w
“Empower your life synergy with my new positive consultancy handbook!”
“Learn how to harness attitude synergies to positively grow your meta business!” “2.0!” “With my new book!”
You are just too negative Kirk. A little Six Sigma indoctrination and maybe you would “get it”.
I like to think of it a buzz word bingo
I’m putting my investment dollars in Post-It notes, counting on the Secret power of affirmation. Repeat after me: “I’m a good person.” I’m going to have a great day.” “I will sell this house today.” (Annette Bening, in American Beauty)
Nicholas Tutora, a “Certified LifeSuccess Consultant” leads a motivational presentation during a gathering of Arizona real estate agents to discuss turning around the market at the Scottsdale Center for the Arts in Scottsdale Friday.
Well, at least ONE person was succe$$ful on Friday.
It looks like they used the Piper Theater at the Scottsdale Center for the Performing Arts. I went there last weekend to see the “Capitol Steps.” Now, after this realtor re-affirmation bs, the place seems tainted to me.
With reference to the CNN story, I don’t know of any “experts” who are acting humble right now, unless claiming surprise and blaming the media are the new ways of demonstrating the attribute. And the hiring of a motivational speaker to fire up realtors — give me a break. It’s too bad Chris Farley isn’t around any more to threaten these people with life in a van down by the river.
Ah yes, motivational speakers .. heh he ! I
I worked for a small cable co. in my younger days in Tampa, Fl.
The company ( Maxtel Cable ) had a monopoly on apt communities, and would pipe-in cable signals for higher rates than normal AND the residents had to pay because of the sweetheart kickback deal in place w/the owners. This was before dish satellite also. That company had HORRIBLE bait n switch tactics and a huge number of customer complaints. If not for the multi-year monopoly contracts in place they would have died quickly.
So anyway, this half baked company was always trying gimmicks to up their sales, and started sending us rank n filers to stupid motivational seminars in downtown Tampa Convention Center. We all just laughed & enjoyed the day off our regular salt mine chores, but I’ll never forget a co-workers comment about motivation for working: she said ” I got all the motivation I need from a stack of bills on my table at home” !
I suspect the company execs (douchebag inbred family owned )got a nice tax write-off for the seminar, and probably a better large-employee package discount rate, so everyone got dragged along. Nice to see/hear a few good speakers though, swim with sharks guy (Mckay ?), and others. Still, nothing that a pay raise couldnt accomplish. And the hassle/cost of driving downtown was a pisser !!
Obligatory Farley YouTube Link
wow, I’d like a Flash editor like that
$130,000K house - wait a minute - that’s affordable for a first time buyer on a FHA loan with fixed interest rate. What a concept!!!!
The quote says 3 bedroom new home price cuts were as much as $130,000. It did not say new homes there are for sale for $130,000.
‘”Builders have now dropped new three-bedroom, single-family homes as low as $130,000,’ says Frank Owens”
It is a wierd quote. “Have now dropped” implies there is an amount by which the prices dropped. I would use “as much as” in place of “as low as” to remove the implied ambiguity. I highly doubt you could find a new house for sale within a radius of 30 miles of, say, Thomas road and 44th street in the 85018 zip code for the price of $130,000 today.
I am wrong. $118,600 brand new 3 bedroom 2 bath in, of all places, Queen Creek. Any takers?
http://homes.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=85018&nzp=85066%2c85067%2c85068%2c85069%2c85070%2c85071%2c85072%2c85073%2c85074%2c85075%2c85076%2c85077%2c85078%2c85079%2c85080%2c85082%2c85083%2c85085%2c85086%2c85087%2c85098%2c85099%2c85201%2c85202%2c85203%2c85204%2c85205%2c85206%2c85207%2c85208%2c85209%2c85210%2c85211%2c85212%2c85213%2c85214%2c85215%2c85216%2c85217%2c85218%2c85219%2c85220%2c85221%2c85224%2c85225%2c85226%2c85227%2c85228%2c85232%2c85233%2c85234%2c85236%2c85238%2c85239%2c85240%2c85242%2c85243%2c85244%2c85246%2c85247%2c85248%2c85249%2c85250%2c85251%2c85252%2c85253%2c85254%2c85255%2c85256%2c85257%2c85258%2c85259%2c85260%2c85261%2c85262%2c85263%2c85264%2c85266&ml=5&mxp=18&bd=4&bth=4&typ=1&pfbm=2&sid=38f0f64c4e9a45928b3a7cc07103dc96&pg=2&lid=1089604821&lsn=20&srcnt=392#Detail
I bravely clicked that dangerous-looking link. It worked! Now that we have comps under $100/sq ft on new junk in Phoenix exurbia, I guess $350K for a 2300/sq ft “fat-girl-on-a-bar-stool” might end up having been a bit of an overpay. Somehow I don’t think houses are like emeralds, where price per carat actually goes up with weight.
Let’s all go to Scottsdale and think happy thoughts. “Let me find an GF to buy my Mc$hitbox.”
Later this evening I noticed a group of the UsedHouseSalespeople still hanging around the bar…. and I think the earlier uplifting message seemed to be fading as one guy sprang to his feet to declare the start of a new petition to rename Scottsdale to “Scotchdale’…..followed by several rounds of ‘for he’s a jolly good fellow’…..sad isn’t it?
“Whatever business people are in, they need to think thoughts that will empower them to create positive results, self-described LifeSuccess consultant Nicholas Tutora told the audience.
la,la, la la, la……….When you wish up-on a star………
your dreams will come true………la, la, lah, la lah.
I heard that Custer was thinking positive right before the 5,000 Native Americans swooped down on his patrol
They say it’s the Joshua tree that actually killed him.
Ex,
If you ever have a party, please invite us!
Best,
Leigh
P.S. Not during holiday though
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-AXTx4PcKI
Once the perky upbeat vapidness spewed by Nicholas Tutora and his ilk fails to have the desired effect - and the RE industry starts eating it’s young - I suspect the “motivational speeches” surviving realtors will be subjected to, will be more along the lines of Alec Baldwin’s infamous “Coffee is for Closers” speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-AXTx4PcKI
Selling is selling and it doesn’t really matter what the product is. No one needs anyones else to give them motivational speeches; however, positive attitude is necessary if you’re going to sell something. You can’t sell real estate if you’re running around saying the market is dead and no one should buy anything. I’m not suggesting it’s a good time to buy - I’m just saying that if it’s your job to sell real estate or anything else, you have to believe in what you’re selling or you’re not going to make a sale. Besides that - IMHO positive attitude is vital to make it through life - being negative never got anyone anywhere. Almost everyone on this blog has a positive attitude towards their ability to weather the financial storm and is therefore taking affirmative actions to to take care of their lives. I don’t see anyone really saying it’s hopeless and there’s no point in doing anything. Maybe I’m a sap, but I believe you attract what you are - if you are bitter and negative, that’s what your life will be. Same with attracting a mate. I tell the kids all the time - you want a quality mate of integrity, you have to be that person also. So, though I don’t believe in institutional mumbo jumbo forced motivational crap, I don’t necessarily think the whole message should be kicked to the curb. Please allow me to go get a cocktail before beating me up.
Most of us don’t sell by price intimidation - “you’d better buy because prices are only going up” - but based on relative value and stressing at least two of the Big Three - price, quality, and service. Wholesale is so much easier than retail - I can sell with stuff like: “these are good, it’s been a steady seller for a long time, the margins are good, and there’s not a lot of competition.” Pretty straightforward, and then the retailer has to close the sale to the end-user, demonstrating, say, some emotional or physical benefit.
RE is a strange product - it used to be considered a living expense that with maintenance provided a residual source of wealth. Now, even with the recent downturn, RE is sold as an investment.
RE agents should simply stress features of houses and refrain from making predictions about future prices. Unfortunately, what most of them consider the most benign and defensible comment: “In the long run, real estate always goes up, so there’s never a bad time to buy,” is simply not true, and so we have an entire industry based upon a generalized deceit. Only when residential RE stops being marketed as an investment will it be possible for most RE agent to reclaim a positive attitude.
I so agree, Paul about features and leaving out all the investment BS. My main point was no matter what you sell, if you don’t believe in the product, you probably won’t make many sales.
Although everyone sells themselves to a degree, very few people can shift into selling-mode and push any product at will. I suppose it takes something similar to natural acting talent where the sell-character takes over.
As a dog smells fear, positive thoughts/feelings are communicable and the mark .. er.. customer will feel it too.
If used with discretion, thinking positively can’t hurt.
‘Most of us don’t sell by price intimidation - “you’d better buy because prices are only going up”
Thanks Paul.
Only a jackass would tool that phrase to a customer. I am in sales and never in my last 15 years has that phase even entered in my mind. A lot of companys are on the ropes and they are cutting prices to just stay afloat!
Last year a woman at my workplace quit her position to go do New Home sales in OC. Before she left, she told me that my wife and I should consider stopping by to look at a place to buy. I told her the sh!t was waaay too overpriced.
Her response: “Well, it’s only going to get more expensive!”
She was giving me “the pitch” before she even started her new real estate job!
PS - she has since changed her tune.
are they crazy - I totally agree with you and I was thinking some of those thoughts when I was reading the above comments.
Positive thinking and actions based on realistic presumptions is good and can be a powerful force in a person’s life. Positive thinking based on the “visualize a repeal of the law of gravity” method - eh, not so much.
“IMHO positive attitude is vital to make it through life - being negative never got anyone anywhere….but I believe you attract what you are -”
Uh huh….more of thatposer-of-positive-thinking babble.
So one is supposed to be ‘positive’ even when the actual real facts staring you in the face are negative?
Keep denying that reality is actually negative about something and it will land you in a locked ward on psychotropic drugs. It is called “delusional” and “unable to perceive reality.”
Is the glass half full or half empty? Reality is often nothing more than a point of view.
Ideally, seeing the glass as half full or half empty is the conscious decision of a well disciplined intellect.. The mind willingly selects the view which is most appropriate for some particular situation.
If the situation is sales, the half-full glass is the more useful view, imo.
Oh Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won’t you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
I think the “positive thinking” part is fine. It should inspire the Used House Salespeople to figure out what they really need to do to get these things sold: lower the prices below the equivalent cost of renting.
I really think Las Vegas is going to get hurt worse than anybody. They’re losing market share in the global gambling (excuse me, gaming) business, and as local governments run short of money everywhere this is likely to get worse. The weather is bad - it’s absurdly dry, cold and windy in the winter, and hotter than Phoenix in the summer. There’s very little in the way of nearby out-of-town entertainment except maybe racing “personal stupidcraft” on the lakes and dunes. It’s full of gangs and deadbeats and obese waddlers. Oh, sure I realize it has some nice amenities for the super-rich, and a few nice golf courses and sports events. But, are we really supposed to take this place seriously?
‘I really think Las Vegas is going to get hurt worse than anybody. ‘
- I still stand by my prediction that the Inland Empire in SoCal will lead the nation in this disaster. The subprime lending was birthed in neighboring Orange County, which used the Inland Empire to father a couple hundred thousand bastard loans…to test the concept!
“The subprime lending was birthed in neighboring Orange County, which used the Inland Empire to father a couple hundred thousand bastard loans…to test the concept!”
Yes, for sure, IE, I’ve even said it before myself. I was kind of thinking about core cities and suburbia thereof. For some reason the IE has sort of left my mind, although I’ve spent a bit of time there, back and forth from the coast to Death Valley, Joshua Tree, etc. I recall the plaque on a door at a cheap hotel in Indio (is that considered IE?) - “Jimmy Swaggart had a ‘date’ in this room in –/–/–.”
The IE is going to bring down California.
If those McMansions had been built with solar power… it could recover at a lower price point. But the shear cost of cooling them in the summer will be too much of a burden for the incomes out there.
Come on! Its a low cost warehouse/trucking based economy. Sheesh… Yes, I know other businesses have moved in. But not enough.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Actually it is the Central Valley (Modesto, Merced, Fresno ..) that are getting nuked worse. It is a total loss scenario.
Agreed.
The IE always survives as LA’s doormat and the CV is “the farm” for all of CA. OTOH, LV has no real reason to exist. Tourism is the #1 industry, construction is #2, and everything else lives off the first two. Well, #2 is dead for the foreseeable future and #1 is going to suffer big-time.
I still say LV will be the U.S.’s first modern ghost town.
‘”Builders have now dropped new three-bedroom, single-family homes as low as $130,000,’ says Frank Owens, a local real estate analyst and headhunter for the home-building industry. ‘That’s unheard of. The lowest we’d see a year ago was $200,000.’”
I suspect 4 or 5 years ago, those prices were fairly common. It’s a good thing we have the Federal Reserve System to help promote “price stability” as part of their mission. IF prices keep dropping, they may have succeeded, though I think it is largely unintentional.
$130,000 was common for new houses in Gilbert in 2001.
“Whatever business people are in, they need to think thoughts that will empower them to create positive results, self-described LifeSuccess consultant Nicholas Tutora told the audience.”
One of the many beneficial effects of the onrushing breakdown of our debt-and-credit based economy will be the extinction of entire classes of BS employment, like these “motivational speakers.” People will have to provide essential skills and services, or they’ll go hungry - companies will be too cash-strapped, and surviving employees too hard-pressed and hard-headed, to be placated by these feel-good asshats and their vapid “don’t-worry-be-happy” mantras.
‘ companies will be too cash-strapped, and surviving employees too hard-pressed ‘
Sammy
Kudlow and L Yun have assured the country that everything is good, the bottom is in, it’s local, Dubi invest in Citi,deficits DON’T matter(my favorite), blah, blah blah.
And the sheeple will buy it - for awhile. Look at the headlong, lemming-like rush into financials and homebuilders late last week. The great mass of people seem to have lost all capacity for independent, critical thought and reasoning.
Do you think that was sheeple? or just short-coverers?
Boy I hope so. I remember Zig Ziglar’s last presentation in Tampa — I was a half hour late to work, because all the roads into downtown were hopelessly snarled. My first words upon getting to the office, addressed to no one in particular, were “why can’t all these people motivate their own @##^&*%# selves?”
I think all those realtors have taken a “trust fall” on this economy, only there’s no one there to catch them.
BRAVO !!!
“Due to the nationwide slump in the residential housing market, plans to build a massive industrial, commercial and residential project in Hawthorne have been indefinitely postponed.”
Hawthorne?? That’s in the middle of friggin nowhere. There was just a big ammo dump last time I was there. What did they do, up and move it closer to Reno?
What happen to rising cost of energy? Does this play a role in people’s decision on where to live?
Build up! Live close to work, shopping and what ever!
“Now, it’s time to stop being passive, Koberlein said.”
I’m wondering how many of these Realtors will just drop out of this Industry. Basically the gravy train has left and it’s time to actually work for a living. You know.. Long hours, lot’s of studying and researching, making less money but actually earning it, making sacrifices, etc….Same goes to mortgage brokers/agents.
Do they have actual skills? I was trying to hire a person for a technical position in our company and I received numerous resumes from Realtors who at one time installed Windows in a computer. You got to be kidding me.
“Dozens of investigations into mortgage fraud and other bad loans are waiting until the agency’s investigators can get to them. A typical mortgage investigation takes months or more to track because of extensive paper trails and the many people involved.”
Calling ocrenter………
I think we may have found an occupation with growth potential.
“We have to license the people taking borrowers’ personal information and working with them to make one of their biggest financial decisions, getting a mortgage. Real-estate agents have to be licensed, and no one says that’s a bad thing.”
A few weeks ago, I posted a link about hundreds of files full of borrower’s financial information being found in a Dumpster in back of a defunct mortgage broker. This is serious issue - there is plenty of information in those files to enable identity theft, impersonation, and heavens knows what other mischief. There does need to be mechanism to protect people’s private financial information, and it have to be regulation and licensing of mortgage brokers.
It would take about 5 minutes for a bank to get closed down if an auditor found such BSA violations. But these debt-peddlers get free rein to do anything they want.
As a private lender, I am always curious about how the licensing would apply to persons lending their own money. Surely that shouldn’t require a license? And if I can lend my own money, can I at some later date sell the note to another private party? I see the problem about files and so on, but I never ask a borrower for a written application. NO DOC no problem. It’s the no-down that would be a problem; I never do no-down.
I found a D H Horton 4 bedroom 2 bath 1600 sq foot brand new in Florence. $125,000. I put the link in the URL space (click name). Repeated link below if it does not work:
2c85266&ml=5&mxp=18&bd=4&bth=4&typ=1&pfbm=2&sid=38f0f64c4e9a45928b3a7cc07103dc96&pg=3&lid=1090400932&lsn=26&srcnt=392#Detail
Oh well, the link did not work in either place. But I have found many new Queen Creek houses for sale for under $120,000. There are new DH Horton models on the opposite side of Phoenix in Buckeye for the $140’s. 1400 to 1600 square feet.
Comps are getting destroyed rapidly. Got an electric car to commute in when the world runs out of cheap oil? http://www.teslamotors.com/
where’s the electric going to come from ?
got nukes?
Yep!…Palos Verdes nuclear power plants are 50 miles west of Phoenix. Not a small part of Phoenix gets its energy from Nuclear power.
http://tinyurl.com/25sekg
Thanks Cinch for the hint about tinyurl. I’m slow on some of the hip new things!
Where’s the water going to come from?
Try tinyurl.com to shorten your link.
said Felecia Rotellini, superintendent of the Department of Financial Institutions.”
soviet sounding , ain’t it
from the ashes people will vote for even more regualators,programs,councils and bs
This is OT, but I think important and don’t want it lost in an old thread.
The Florida SBA mess involved short-term funds, not their pension plan, (so far). Now New York’s 2 pension plans are suing CFC in court for misrepresenting the companies financial position. Turns out the public pension funds were big investors in CFC shares and actually believed Mozillo. And now have a nice haircut to show for it–billions gone.
Public pension funds are not immune…and all those public employees may find they ain’t getting what they were promised. This, as public employees of Boomer age are getting ready to start retiring en masse.
And it’s not just New York, wait til the Florida folks look to see what’s in their pension fund.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-11-30T214459Z_01_N30312252_RTRIDST_0_COUNTRYWIDE-CLASSACTION-NEWYORK-UPDATE-2.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage2
they can finally find useful work
The next two decades will see Americans fighting each other over a shrinking pie. The weapons will be legislators and lawyers. The future doesn’t look too promising.
I worked for 12 Members of the US House between 1999-2001. What you describe is absolutely nothing new and has been seen since the advent of the TV (shortening all of our attention spans and turning nat’l politics into a rivalry sport).
Name ONE political issue today that’s new? Just one, I’ll wait.
I can’t, except possibly stem-cells (which I just view as a perverted extension of the abortion debate). SS? Known it’s going bankrupt for 25 years… Immigration? 50 years… Oil and gas? 40 years. And so on.
Sad fact is, solutions are risky. Kicking the can down the road is MUCH safer, plus has the benefit of providing fodder to argue about for yet another election cycle. I’ve literally been in the room when your Rep in Congress is directing his staff to delay action simply to preserve the controversy. Many times. Both sides of the aisle are the same… Jesus, the things I’ve seen….
Another thing everyone needs to think about: The term for a Representative is two years. 730 days. In 2006, the average spent by each winner was over $1.3 million (http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/stats.asp). That’s AVERAGE (costs much much more in races with no incumbents, large geographic areas, population, etc…). Even using that low-ball average works out to almost $2000 PER DAY that Member must raise, 7 days a week, just to compete for re-election. The kicker: Salary for that job is only $165k/year ($453/day before taxes)….. Seven Members that I worked for were having to raise $5k-$10k PER DAY. Needless to say, I have NEVER met a Member who has ever read the actual legislation they were voting on. If they did, there’d be no time to preen on television.
I have no firsthand experience from the Senate side, but if you do the math from the above link those seats cost $4100/day on average. Same $165k/yr salary…
Hello, this thing on? It’s time we all woke the f!@# up!.
Weird, I was replying to a comment in a totally different thread…. That’s why the first couple sentences aren’t in context.
i’m curious about something you’ll probably be able to answer. I know a DC bureaucrat that works in a somewhat top security environment.
She once told me that (almost) every politician throughout the spectrum of ideologies, is genuinely trying to improve things for the better.. to make a “difference”.
Bbut being of a skeptical nature, I’d always figured they were only in it for themselves, driven by the desire for power and perks and ego satisfaction, etc..?
It makes perfect sense once you understand that the most important thing in a politican’s list of things to do ‘to improve things for the better” is the item which reads:
Do whatever it takes and say whatever it takes to getre-elected because I am SOOOOO important to the system.
The corollary reads “do no do or say anything that can hurt the chances of getting re-elected even doing or saying that thing would be the honest, moral , truthful and responsible thing to do - and devil take the hindmost if it hurts the chances for re-election.”
When I was in college I interned on the hill. Lots of the people are committed to improving things. But think you have to look at Federalist papers, and Constitution. My take is that making the government lumbering and slow moving in most cases makes it much safer for the governed.
The irony here, and the personal conflict that I’ve never been able to reconcile is the fact that our current “get nothing done” gov’t is EXACTLY what our founding fathers wanted. That’s why they set up the checks-and-balances system of a bicameral legislature, executive and judicial branches. In order for a law to get through that type of system, it must be pretty darn important (in theory).
However, the Fathers never envisioned the tax burdon we all carry in order for absolutely nothing to ever get done… That’s why I walked away. I was looking at my pay stub one day (at all the various taxes withheld) and realizeing that it was all being spent to rile people up instead of doing anything to help them.
All things considered however, there aren’t any greener pastures. We’ve made our own bed….
In my experience (and I’ve been involved with dozens of unknown Congressional campaigns that eventually won), they ALL start out with the intentions to make things better. However, our system corrupts them very quickly - before they are even sworn in.
To become a Member of Congress, one first has to win his party’s nomination and then go on to win a general election. Most states have a closed primary for the nomination.
During that phase the hours are LONG (16 hrs/day knocking on doors and phone-banking) and done on a shoestring budget.
The instant you win the nomination it’s almost like you won the lottery - the Party gives you tons of cash to run for the general election. Going from maybe a paid staff of two with one computer to a paid staff of 20 with a $30,000 LAN and workstations for everyone.
The instant you win the general, then it’s limousines, 24/7 security detail, everyone kissing your a$$, etc… Basically you’re an instant celeb. The psychological change is astonishing. Six months later the sense of entitlement sinks in.
The simple fact is, one can’t make it through all of that without being beholden to so many big-$$$ contributors. It gets worse: you can’t get very much done without seniority, and you don’t get seniority in your first term - making re-election imperative. Tow the party line your first term or the Party will bankroll your opponent in the next primary… Principles are compromised immediately, without even much thought. It’s expected.
The Hill…er…lumbering government…
OK. NOT.
Yes, on the lumbering government, no on the commitment. (Yes, loyal people do exist!)
Safe Anon? I hope you are correct.
Leigh
Here’s my take: I was a federal employee for eleven years in the defense area. The people I worked with came from all political religious and non-religious, and ethnic backgrounds but had one thing in common: They loved their work and love the American heritage (Constitution, Declaration of Independence, freedom, et al). This is just to let non-government people be aware that there are proud and ethical people getting paid by your tax dollars. I hope I set some people straight about any prejudices they may have.
i have been looking intently at tucson, and really i dont see prices falling….it is unbelievable to me how expensive it is to live there…..i think i am going to turn down a job because of how riduclous the prices are….anything realtors are sending are 200-300/sq ft
someone please tell me prices are going fall.
this is from a realtor….and i guess i have to agree:
I can understand your objection (deterrant is your word, I guess) to the home prices in Tucson and their appreciation over the last years…and the fact that they haven’t fallen as the national news would lead people to believe. It may change. Who knows. At this point, as I said before, it is what it is. This is hard data. When there is a home under 1500 sf for the $300K range, you can see why 3000sf with views and a large lot in a convenient location is very hard to find for under $500K.
“this is from a realtor….and i guess i have to agree:” agreeing with your the Realtor? You are listening to a person who stands to gain from your purchasing decision.
I’m speechless.
Cinch
but its true….there aren’t any 3000 sq ft houses in foothills for under 500K….most everything is priced at 700K and above
crap 900 sq foot houses for 150K
So, what’s your problem? I’m betting you can rent something ~3000 sqft for cheap. Carpe diem!
bwahahahahah!!!!!!! And I am sure they are going like hot cakes.
Thanks, I need a good laugh today.
One more thing. Google the “Bark Scorpion”
Love the FootHills area, I remember when you could buy half the mountain for 500k. I can’t even imagine a 700k house in Tucson however…
Sometimes when I drive along River road north of Oracle, I look at the area and think how ugly that part is. In contrast, Sunrise/Snyder road has views. There are a lot of good apartment complexes to rent in. I lived at Centrepoint apartments for three years in the 1990s and they were quiet, had GE appliances, everything. The fitness center was a real fitness center with over a dozen different weight machines and not a stupid useless universal machine like you see at most apartments. Why do you just have to “own” a house when you can rent cheap in Tucson? A friend of mine has been renting a 3 bedroom apartment for nearly ten years there. He’s happy to “throw his money away.”
If it’s a job you like, take it. You rent at least a year in place to know it before evening thinking about buying.
that was my plan…..look at this on trulia…see how many are for sale in the foothills and how few have sold…prices have to start coming down
http://www.trulia.com/sold/Tucson,AZ/32.274797,32.285605,-110.794034,-110.75922_xy/15_zm/#sold/Tucson,AZ/32.311654,32.333261,-110.926218,-110.85659_xy/14_zm/
someone please tell me prices are going fall.
—————–
Tucson had a 40-50% sub-Slime Clownifornicator infestors for most of the ‘03-’06 RE sales, outbidding the locals left, right & center - hence the ridiculous prices.
Median income low 30’s, crappy jobs…
My advice - fuggedaboutit.
So what is the appeal of Tucson that justifies the high housing prices?
Wages are below national averages
The weather is straight out of hell
From what I have heard crime levels are above national averages, in large part fueled by the drug trade.
I don’t get it. They should be giving houses away in Tucson. Instead they cost twice as much as in Fort Collins, even though the average household income out here is twice as high.
Look at this pos
http://www.trulia.com/homes/Arizona/Tucson/sold/38977-613-W-Thurber-Rd-Tucson-AZ-85705-SAZ
who the hell is buying this 207K in 2007 when it just sold for 90K last year
Sales History
Historical home sale price (1): $207,000
Prior sale date: Jun 15, 2007
Change since this sale (1): NA
Historical home sale price (2): $90,000
Prior sale date: May 8, 2006
Change since this sale (2): +130%
“who the hell is buying this 207K in 2007 when it just sold for 90K last year”
Check the actual county records if you are really curious. But, who cares? It is an outlier based on fraud, error, or some other unique circumstances. Prices in Tucson did not double from 2006 to 2007. Prices dropped during that time frame.
There could be another explanation. When I got divorced I bought the half of the house I didn’t own from my ex. The records then showed that what I paid for the house as the cash that I paid the ex! Not only did it not show the real value (which was what I owned plus what he owned) but it only showed the 1/2 equity exchange excluding the loan (I took over his half of the loan too). So the sale number reported was nearly an order of magnitude incorrect. Yet there was no “fraud” just an inability of the recording system to account for anything but the standard transaction.
So what happens when all these FB’s loose their home and the economy worsens. They will move back in with their parents, or move in with friends. Not only are there too many houses, there are too many houses that are under utilized homes. The later problem will correct first. This will increase the number of homes vs number of people who need a home.
We’ve got a friend who moved to Chicago for a job, but can’t sell his Phoenix house. It’s been almost 2 years. He’s living with relatives now.
Jumping in late
1) I always thought Miami-Ft. L coastline would be the worst of the bubble where 50 year old run-down motels have been replaced by the 35-50 story luxury high rises. The sheer number of units that have been brought to the market is mind-boggling. The inventory levels reflect that and it’s getting worse and worse.
2) A few years ago, I dated someone in politics - on the opposite end of the isles too. She was actually pretty earnest about “helping the little people”.
I recal once conversation - back in 2003 - where I was telling her that this was an unsustainable bubble with the unimaginable monetary creation by the infusion of credit. She didn’t get it. So I said, “You borrowed money against your equity to get a new roof. It’s a loan for you. That’s a big pile of cash for the roofers.”
It may have registered.