December 2, 2007

People Are Taking Their Time Looking – Because They Can

The Winchester Star reports from Virginia. “Residential permits in Frederick County fell by 30 percent, from 1,975 in FY 2006 to 1,379 in FY 2007, according to county data. In Clarke, the residential drop was more severe, with permits plunging 58 percent, from 125 to 52. The reason for the numbers is fairly simple. ‘That’s just the national trend being reflected here locally,’ said Clarke County Planning Administrator Charles Johnston.”

“‘There are a lot of factors involved, the most important one being that the market for new housing is stagnant,’ said Ellen Murphy, Frederick County commissioner of the revenue.”

“‘People are finding it hard to sell the homes they have and they’re experiencing financial trouble,’ she said. ‘We’re seeing a record number of foreclosures and repossessions and that has thrown a scare into the market. People are now looking at trying to buy some of these homes for a bargain price, so there’s not a big market for new homes.’”

The Herald Mail from Maryland. “The home construction industry in Washington County has pretty much fallen through the floor over the past two years. From January to September 2005, permits were issued to build 1,163 homes, according to figures from the Hagerstown and Washington County building permits offices.”

“In the same period this year, the figures show, builders got permits for just 360 houses. That’s a 70 percent drop.”

“‘Three years ago was good, and two years ago it went to hell. And this year, further hell,’ said Carl Gallahan, manager of Sellmore Industries’ building materials distribution business in Hagerstown. ‘And not little changes, either. This year, it fell off the cliff,’ Gallahan said.”

“Many people who have borrowed against the value of their homes are seeing it drop. And among those still looking to buy is worry that the price they pay today won’t hold up tomorrow.”

“‘There’s no buyer confidence out there. It’s very low,’ said Dennis Swope, VP of Home Construction Corp. of Hagerstown.”

“‘Used to be, you’d put an existing house up for sale and it would go, and it was selling for more than it was listed, and this was just two or three years ago,’ Swope said. ‘And customers for new homes weren’t asking for discounts. Today, they’re asking for discounts.’”

“For Hagerstown Block Co. ‘has been a little bit slow,’ Plant Manager Bret Sprecher said. ‘We’re down some. We’re kind of thinking this year’s going to be worse.’”

“The negative effect ‘trickles right down. It’s like you have a lot of homebuilders out there used to do 150 homes. Now they’re doing like maybe 20, maybe 30. They employ a lot of electricians, framers, plumbers,’ who now have had to find home-improvement jobs,’ Gallahan said. Some local contractors, whom he declined to name, have been forced out of business.”

“He said he worries about builders who have money tied up in houses they built on speculation as models or as inventory. ‘That’s a lot of money sitting there that a lot of builders aren’t closing on,’ Gallahan said.”

“Another problem for homegrown contractors arose a few years ago when national builders, following the market out to the suburbs, came here with city-sized budgets.”

“‘We had a kick in the pocket two years ago when land prices went crazy,’ Swope said. ‘Lots that were selling for $40,000 to $50,000 all of a sudden went to $90,000 or $100,000. Mostly that was caused by the large builders coming to town and paying astronomical prices. And now that things have slowed down, it has caused a correction in the market.’”

“But landowners have been reluctant to accept lower prices. So, local builders said, they have been largely shut out of the local market for large properties for housing developments. ‘Today, I cannot afford to go out and buy tracts of land. You have to have deep pockets to do that,’ said Swope, who has been with Home Construction since 1969.”

“Worsening the situation, builders said, is that the large developers who have been coming here are reacting to the national economic slowdown by offering deep discounts on some houses.”

“This adds to consumers’ uncertainty over value throughout the county, said Tim Fields, president of the Homebuilders Association of Washington County. ‘When there’s a full-page ad offering $40,000 worth of discounts if you buy this weekend, that certainly introduces doubt.’”

“Swope said the situation would not improve ‘until the buyer realizes prices have stabilized and aren’t going to go lower.’”

The Record from New Jersey. “Where are the buyers? Many are holding back, hoping to get a better deal if, as some economists predict, home prices continue to slide in 2008.”

“‘An atmosphere has been created that says, ‘Wait and see, maybe you’ll get a better deal next spring,’ said broker Honor Noreen Kremer in Leonia. ‘I don’t have one customer at this point ready to put an offer in on anything. I’m not sure, even if I found them the right thing, if they’re ready to make an offer.’”

“‘People are really taking their time looking – because they can,’ said Diane Stroud, an agent in Allendale.”

“‘Everybody wants a steal,’ said Nafi Sela, a real estate agent in Wayne. ‘If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.’”

“Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them ‘extreme deal seekers. They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,’ she said. “If the offer is not accepted, they typically do not increase their offer. They just go on to the next home.’”

“Yildiray Yildirim, a professor of real estate at Syracuse University, said buyer psychology is affected by the stream of negative news about housing.”

“‘Buyers are waiting for a better deal. As a buyer, that’s exactly what I would do,’ he said.”

“In fact, that is what he is doing. He moved to Syracuse from Ithaca, and has been looking for a house for about two years. He has made low offers, but so far, the sellers have turned up their noses at him. He thinks that may change as the months go on and sellers continue paying mortgages and taxes on houses they want to unload.”

“‘It’s the best buying opportunity we’ve seen in a long time,’ said real estate agent Eileen Meehan in Saddle River. ‘Right now, real estate is on sale.’”

“Rhonda Brown, a would-be buyer who lives in Bergen County, said prices haven’t fallen enough to make North Jersey affordable to middle-income workers. She has been looking for a town house for less than $300,000, but has not had much luck.”

“‘If it was so much of a buyer’s market, I would have bought a long time ago,’ said Brown. She plans to keep looking, save more money for a down payment and hope that prices will decline in 2008.”

“‘Those are the only three things I can do,’ she said.”




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52 Comments »

Comment by WT Economist
2007-12-02 07:41:45

“‘Everybody wants a steal…If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.’”

I guess prices are always to be evaluated relative to 2005, eh? There are no steals. Not if by a steal you mean a young plumber married to young nurse can buy a house similar to what they grew up in in the same Jersey town for 3X their current income.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-12-02 08:44:05

And then, “Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them ‘extreme deal seekers. They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,’ she said. “If the offer is not accepted, they typically do not increase their offer. They just go on to the next home.’”

Ah, if only all (or even most) buyers would subscribe to this. Talk about plummeting prices!

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-12-02 09:28:01

When I read things like this, I suspect my fellow HBB’ers are on the prowl. Imagine what it does to greedhead “I’m entitled to 2005 prices” seller complacency when they reject that lowball offer, only to find out that’s the best and only offer they’re going to get. By the time I’m ready to start my casual vulture sorties in Spring ‘08, the greedheads will be in a more pliable state of mind for realistic offers.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-12-02 09:46:09

I heard a discussion between various talking heads yesterday (on one of those news networks) and the bears among that group said don’t even bother looking until next year this time. (Of course we all know what the bulls were saying…)

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Comment by Tim
2007-12-02 10:01:09

I am sick of buyers only offering twice what the property sold for 6 years ago. I mean give me a break, ppl are not gonna give their houses away. They got to much sh*t to pay off, and want to retire. The average starting home should be one million, that is if the freaking media doesnt try scare everyone off. You are never gonna see prices this low anytime soon.

 
 
Comment by GH
2007-12-02 08:48:36

Right the very peak. Everything after that is discounted! Prices went up anywhere from 100 to 300+ percent in many areas since 2000 and still need to come down a good 40% + in many bubble areas.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-02 08:48:51

WT, that was the same quote I was going to paste. I guess they liked it a lot better in 2005 when something was listed for $200,000 and the Greater Fools, armed with funny financing, wanted it for $300,000.

Comment by SKB
2007-12-02 09:15:42

‘Everybody wants a steal…If something is listed at $300,000, they want it for $200,000.’

The real thief’s are the ones that charged 300,000 in the first place.
Why not try to save 100,000 like I did over five years JackAss.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-12-02 09:30:49

Then again, the way “Helicopter Ben” Beranke & the Fed are gutting the dollar with their runaway printing presses and lunatic fiscal policies, inflation could mean prices won’t fall that much. There will be too much funny money chasing tangible assets.

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Comment by SoBay
2007-12-02 09:44:58

“Helicopter Ben” Beranke’

- Simply refered to as ‘Benny and the Inkjets’

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-02 10:15:50

Bennie, Bennie, Bennie, Bennie and the Inkjetsssssssssss.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Tim
2007-12-02 10:06:59

Why do realtors try to use big works like “market value” they dont understand. Ummmm, you mean “peak inflated price” hun.

 
 
Comment by Cowboy
2007-12-02 08:04:03

Gotta love this quote:

“‘It’s the best buying opportunity we’ve seen in a long time,’ said real estate agent Eileen Meehan in Saddle River. ‘Right now, real estate is on sale.’”

What we need a law to raise gas prices for realtors to $10 a gallon. Then we give them a 30% coupon and tell them that it’s a “buyers market”

Then when they still complain we offer them 30 year financing with a teaser rate and presto chango the gas is magically “$3″ a gallon….

Comment by SKB
2007-12-02 09:17:07

I love that idea!!!!

 
 
Comment by MD_Renter
2007-12-02 08:07:08

40% off listing price is just about right for around here.

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2007-12-02 08:41:55

OT: If all these silly loan processors are working at Target who is going to rewrite and freeze all the whacky loan resets? Is CW going to rehire all those losers?

Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-02 11:18:21

Yeah - that was my question, too. Same losers that OKed the original loans are now going to OK the loan freezes. Get ‘em while you can - step right up - we have frozen bananas, frozen ice cream bars and lookey here - frozen loans for sale, too.

 
 
Comment by Mugsy
2007-12-02 08:53:07

“Jeana Cowie of Re/Max in Oradell calls them ‘extreme deal seekers. They’re making incredibly low offers — 40 percent off market value — to see if they can get a steal,’ she said. “If the offer is not accepted, they typically do not increase their offer. They just go on to the next home.’”

BRILLIANT!

Comment by SKB
2007-12-02 09:18:38

You gotta love those deal seekers!!!! I think I may try some of that myself for kicks.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-12-02 09:41:04

The serious housing bubble vultures - and I proudly number myself among them - are perched serenely in our roosts, watching with amusement as the “extreme deal seekers” - a weasel-like relative of ours - make the rounds, getting rebuffed by indignant greedhead sellers, but planting those all-important seeds of fear and doubt.

We vultures are a patient breed…and we can smell desperation a long ways off. I do believe I’ll just perch here on my branch and preen for the passing realtor-babes, and let today’s lowball-weasels soften up the sellers for a few more months. I won’t be coming off my roost until the landscape is littered with FB carrion and desperate former greedheads are waving their arms above their heads and jumping up and down to capture the attention of that circling, credit-worthy vulture overhead, weeping in their eagerness to cut a deal.

Who needs to soar with the eagles, when you can feast with the vultures?

Comment by Danni
2007-12-02 10:39:19

What a lovely poetic prose!

Put a smile on my face ;)

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-02 11:17:14

Are you looking for a mate? ;)

My kind of bird.

 
Comment by Anon In DC
2007-12-02 12:31:16

Excellent. Very good and loud laugh. They probably heard it accoss river in Virginia !

 
Comment by Arwen_U
2007-12-02 21:44:23

This is as poetic as Snoopy in You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown. He was always one for dreaming up Vulture scenarios.

 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-12-02 09:44:14

40 percent off market value meaning 40% off that dumb list price meaning 40% off your share of the commission.. i got your squirrel right here, Jeana.

 
 
Comment by GH
2007-12-02 08:54:15

I guess it is all about the buyer. No responsibility on the seller or real estate industry for the downturn. Bottom line is that prices are way too high to be affordable right now and out of line with rents. Buyers can only manke the first more by offering what they can afford. After that the seller has to OK the deal if they are serious about unloading their property.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-02 08:57:59

How can a person that hasn’t bought anything be called a “buyer”? They are lookers.

Comment by david
2007-12-02 09:15:42

and someone who purchased their home since 2005 is a bag holder.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-12-02 09:46:33

Indeed. I go to open houses for the sole purpose of grazing on the snack foods, and informing the realtors that the price is way too high. Then I’ll sign the looky-loo roster with a name like “Hugh G. Rection” and put down some random realtor’s phone number.

Comment by txchick57
2007-12-02 10:30:07

That’s fun, isn’t it. There’s a contemporary house in Ft. Worth that I love and I have been torturing the realtor for weeks with the idea I might make an offer if the price were lower. He’s gotten them to lower it 35K (on a 400K house - not exactly what I was after - more like 150K). He calls and emails every day. Not a lot of buyers around for ultra contemporary overpriced houses in Ft. Worth.

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Comment by Anon In DC
2007-12-02 12:44:13

When I chat up realtors at open houses, sometimes I mention that I’ve already sold my house in 2005. They start drooling. I’m a serious looker, but prices still have a way to go. I would say here in DC we’re down 20% from the top. House down the street started about year ago at $1.35 milllion. Now $1.09 million. This is at Eastern Market (Close in Capitol Hill.) Price for this house is still 30% - 40% higher than it should be. Last two nearby houses sold for $930K. Then a few months later the house next to the $930K house sold for about $830K. The $830K is a better house - it has windows on three sides not two like typical townhouses. Estate sale across the street. FSBO for about $1 Million at least that is what it started at about 6 months ago. Depsite presense of FED gov. DC is set for a crash landing. So much inventory for this time of year.

 
 
Comment by Anon In DC
2007-12-02 12:33:21

Even funnier than your vulture post. But is n’t this a family blog rate “G” ?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-02 08:58:32

‘We had a kick in the pocket two years ago when land prices went crazy,’ Swope said. ‘Lots that were selling for $40,000 to $50,000 all of a sudden went to $90,000 or $100,000. Mostly that was caused by the large builders coming to town and paying astronomical prices.’

‘But landowners have been reluctant to accept lower prices. So, local builders said, they have been largely shut out of the local market for large properties for housing developments. ‘Today, I cannot afford to go out and buy tracts of land. You have to have deep pockets to do that,’ said Swope, who has been with Home Construction since 1969.’

Yup, the big national builders are once again seen to have merely gone into these areas and overpaid for everything in sight. Now the local guys can’t make a living because the land owners are stuck in the past.

For all of those out there who think this would be best corrected slowly, consider, how all these tradesmen and women are going to make a living?

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-02 09:15:00

Do we need national builders? I would say “no”.

It’s funny that the national builders are still trying to play “hide the write-down” game. That too will prolong this mess.

Comment by shuzilla
2007-12-02 10:53:26

I don’t know about that, NYCB. I think nationwide megabuilders may have an added protection against future bubbles. Why? Well, they haven’t stopped building; but more importantly, the moment the housing market starts to rebound, signaling that homes are again becoming scarce, they will simply increase construction to meet or exceed the increase in demand. The present bubble started with a lag in supply which led to unaffordability and then to creative financing. Because of the evolution of developers who build on hundreds of acres at a time and who know how to grease thwe wheels of local planning officials, I doubt there will be much more than one quarter’s upturn before new home construction races to catch up. I can’t see how demand can ever outstrip supply unless all these nationwide builders go under, or developable land actually does run out. I think exceptional home value appreciation, outside of inflation or luck, is a thing of the past. The machine is too slick anymore.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2007-12-02 09:51:35

“Swope said the situation would not improve ‘until the buyer realizes prices have stabilized and aren’t going to go lower.’”

A rapid correction (OK by me) would drive prices farther below the “norm” than a slow one, drive them down below construction costs, killing the local builder more the quicker.

I fail to see why the local builder needs to develop “large” tracts. The ability to develop small unique tracts should be to their advantage.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-02 09:58:48

http://tinyurl.com/2dl7xa

Check this out. Lennar sold this venture $1.3 billion worth of properties (Sept. 30th value) for $525,000,000. Isn’t that a de-facto 60% writedown? Didn’t Lennar just destroy the public homebuilders with this arrangement?

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-12-02 10:43:50

Yes, we discussed this some in yesterday’s threads. Actually it looks like they sold 80% of $1.3 billion, so call it a 50% writedown. If they wrote down all their inventory 50% (and you have to believe this stuff is better than average - why would Morgan Stanley want the complete junk?) they would reduce their net worth from about $5 bb to about $1.5 bb. Lennar actually has a stronger balance sheet and has been more proactive than most. It seems determined to do what it can to survive, while others - PHM, BZH, maybe KBH - are looking like deer-in-headlights, and, yes, maybe moreso now that LEN seems willing to game them.

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Comment by mjh
2007-12-02 09:57:16

There are two relatively large parcels of land (one approximately 15, one maybe 7 acres) near my rented condo in Merrifield Virginia (suburb of DC). Parcel 1 (20 acres) is owned by Brookfield Homes, and one is owned by a local builder…Parcel 2 Dittmar Group. Both were clearcut several years ago, staked and platted.

Parcel 1 was sold in late 2004 or early 2005, and I remember seeing logging trucks hauling out HUGE 100 year old logs from the big, beautiful oak trees that covered the entire property. I have walked my dog past that parcel at least once a week since then and, other than putting in some very basic infrastructure, Brookfield has not started building a single home. That’s at least
2 years, and very likely 3, of carrying that asset on their balance sheets with no return. They are trying to build about 15 homes, starting at $1 Mil (used to be $1.2 Mil). (Dunn Loring Chase is the name, for those reading the Post’s Saturday housing section). Unbelievable.

Parcel 2 has 2 spec homes built. with 5 more intended. As of two weeks ago, these start at $1.3 Mil. I walked my dog by these as well. One time this summer, an older, pretty blond lady was just getting out of her late model 5 series BMW and we chatted while she pet my dog. Since then, I have noticed when I walk by, she is either coming out of the house or going in when I pass the house. But, I have NEVER seen any interested lookers stop by. She is a lonely realtor.

My wife and I have proposed turning the whole deal into the Housing Bubble memorial dog park…

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-12-02 10:30:48

MJH:

What is the fascination with clear cutting all the trees? I saw that happen when i lived in South Carolina, beautiful 15 acres great trees even 2 brooks that were deep enough at one point to wade in to your chest right across the street from us….then one day after it was sold it seemed like there was 100 people with buzz saws clearing the place out for 100 townhouses, yes baking in the SC summer….

Went back a few years later and there were little trees about 2 feet high in most people front yard So what was the selling point about the “sterile look?”

Comment by mjh
2007-12-02 10:58:52

Great question…I have no idea. I can only think of two things:
1.) remove natural habitat for any and all animals, to foreclose the possibility that an endangered species might be sighted on the land. If that happened, the Federal Government in all their wisdom essentially expropriates the land as a nature preserve. (For enraging examples of this type of foolishness, see Mugged by The State, my favorite story is about a farmer whose land was removed from agricultural use because some Federal Bureaucrat found an endangered snail in the “wetlands” on his property. The “wetlands” reservoir, was created by the farmer’s tire track…)
2.) Maybe the builders are trying to show good faith effort to impress financiers or the municipality. This would help them make an estoppel argument against a judgment against them for whatever reason (perhaps financing terms state they must begin construction…?).

Whatever the case, I am fairly confident the land is on its way back to old growth forest. The saddest part was seeing the older homes in the neighborhood that were used to the shade trees putting up new blinds to keep out the now blinding sunlight from the vast open field next door.

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Comment by tresho
2007-12-02 11:24:19

I think the “clear cutting” done by so many housebuilders is part of the shoddy construction ethos. Once the trees are all gone, it’s far easier to grade the area for drainage, put in water, sewer & drain pipes, run buried electric lines, move heavy equipment in & out, etc. Leaving selected large trees in is just too much hard work, cuts into the profit margins, don-cha-know?

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Comment by j
2007-12-02 13:14:33

I’m pretty sure that it’s mostly just
for the money. If the land is not
too expensive and has decent
growth on it, then often logging
it down to pulpwood can pretty
much pay for the land itself.

What bussinessman is going
to pass up that profit, and leave
any trees whatsoever standing?

As someone who’d like to actually
own a large parcel of forest, this
all seems the worst sort of tragic.

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Comment by Arwen_U
2007-12-02 21:57:34

I’m not a big fan of local builders, either.

We have a local builder who buys lots and builds houses on spec in Warrenton, VA. He does wretched vinyl-siding-electric-heat-pump-oak-cabinet-builder-grade-unfinished-walk-out-dusty basement stuff. I hope so bad that he overdid it and goes out of business. I had my eye on a lot and he scooped it up and built a dreadful house on it, that’s sitting and is at least 100K overpriced.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-12-02 09:24:17

OT
DUK
looks like utilities are going to get hit by regulators/taxman

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-12-02 09:41:04

has already happened in Jacksonville - new 3% on JEA bills.

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-12-02 09:28:42

“‘If it was so much of a buyer’s market, I would have bought a long time ago,’ said Brown. She plans to keep looking, save more money for a down payment and hope that prices will decline in 2008.”

You go girl. Refreshing to hear such common sense spoken. It’s not a buyers market until prices go down big time back to affordability.

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-12-02 09:34:22

Bottom line: It is not a buyers market. It is not even a bad market for sellers. Sellers just need to lower their inflated past prices to current market reality, then some sales will happen.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-12-02 09:47:18

Agree - it’s more of a sellers’ market than a buyers’ market. Sellers can still get a price well above the historical average relationships to income and rents. Credit market conditions and interest rates are likely to become more unfavorable over the next 12-18 months, resulting in lower prices. Sellers can likely rent and rebuy or rebuild in the future with lower overall costs than continuing to hold.

Thus, today is a good sellers’ market.

 
 
Comment by Walker
2007-12-02 10:16:35

In fact, that is what he is doing. He moved to Syracuse from Ithaca, and has been looking for a house for about two years.

Why on God’s green earth did he do this? You can get nice, affordable housing for under 100k in the suburbs of Syracuse. Here in Ithaca, Cornell has attracted a lot of stupid out of state investors and the prices are insane. Local real estate agents are asking over 300k for a 2/2 condominium in a town of less that 50k (and that is if you include the surrounding “rural sprawl”). Rent to buy ratios in Ithaca are currently over 200.

Comment by Blue Skye
2007-12-02 11:18:32

Walker,

looks like you thought he moved to Ithaca.

Things are less insane over here in Watkins.

 
 
Comment by malfunction junction
2007-12-03 05:48:24

Hi Folks,

I love this blog, and the contributions all you folks make to it. Here is the scoop on Funchester.

There are areas like Shawneeland outside of Winchester that where the going price for a buildable lot in 2000 was around $1500. People are now advertising them for $30,000 so even if they took a 90% haircut they would still be twice the price they paid for them.

Meanwhile Piccadilly Street is full of empty commercial buildings that have been on the market for two years. The landlords all ran the rents up until it got beyond what it cost to rent an office in the much more vibrant beltway area near Dulles airport. Now they cant sell the overpriced empty structures. There are other truly awful hooks in some of the offers like “we reserve the right to buy it back in 2 years”. Who in their right mind would buy a building to remodel into a thriving business only to be forced into selling it off again at half price?

The city knew property tax revenues would be falling so they proactively increased taxes another 30% this year to make up the imminent shortfall that is coming next year.

McMansions in communities like Meadowbranch might do a little better than in some other areas only because the FBI is moving 15,000 government workers into the area. Although those people may choose to live on the Northeast side of town near Clearbrook instead.

This place has a long way to go yet…

 
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