Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Blame shifting? “Two officers with the Washington Association of Mortgage Brokers defended their roles at an Olympian editorial board meeting Wednesday and said their industry was largely not to blame for the nation’s subprime mortgage crisis. Incoming president David Erickson singled out the surge in creative mortgage products as fueling problems with subprime loans.”
“‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
Cancelled projects? “Pulte Homes of Greater Kansas City Inc., which began operating here in 1994, is beginning a phased withdrawal that will continue during the next two years, said Melanie Hearsch, corporate communications manager. ‘We decided to focus on areas with higher demand,’ Hearsch said. ‘There’s a lot of inventory on the ground in Kansas City. It wasn’t making the best financial sense for us to stay.’”
“Plans for an upscale, 1,400-home subdivision near Parmer Lane and the Texas 45 North toll road have been called off because of a national pullback by struggling Dallas-based home builder Centex Homes.”
“Centex has canceled its contract to buy 465 acres of the 750-acre Pearson family ranch, where it planned to spend $275 million to build one of the largest master-planned communities in Central Texas. The Pearson Place project was announced in February.”
“Centex isn’t the only company pulling back in Central Texas, which began as early as 2006, said Eldon Rude, local director for Metrostudy.”
“‘The largest public builders are continuing to face significant challenges around the country, especially in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida,’ Rude said. ‘As a result of that, they are looking to all of their divisions all over the country to take part in their move to conserve funds, and so even in some of the healthier markets, like Austin, they are looking to local divisions to buy less land.’”
Or fraud? “Investigators admit, mortgage fraud is hard to grasp. That it is a complex white-collar crime. Already dozens have been arrested, but no bust has been bigger than the one unveiled Thursday.”
“Investigators announced indictments against 37 people. They allegedly took out $5.6 million in fraudulent loans on 17 houses in Houston and other parts of Harris County.”
“‘These individuals range from loan processors to mortgage brokers to real estate agents,’ said Harris County Prosecutor Lester Blizzard.”
Industry cutbacks? “For employees of District-based Fannie Mae, retirement is looking less secure. The company informed its workforce Thursday that it is capping the amount of money it will pay toward the premiums of retirees and their dependents for those who retire after Dec. 31.”
Or black humor? “A subprime-linked investment has cost four Norwegian towns as much as 451 million kroner ($82.1 million) and left them wondering how they’ll pay workers this Christmas. The rest of the country is cracking jokes.”
“‘Just imagine how many lottery tickets they could have got for 400 million kroner,’ Jon Almaas, the host of Norway’s most-watched television program, joked on a recent episode. ‘Or, for fear of appearing old-fashioned, they could have spent it on health and education.’”
“The losses on securities tied to the U.S. housing market are providing plenty of fodder for Norwegian comics, who compare the towns of Rana, Hemnes, Narvik and Hattfjelldal to naive country bumpkins taken in by big city hucksters.”
“Last weekend, more than 10,000 people took a multiple choice quiz on NRK’s Web site to determine whether they were a ‘Naive Northerner or a Slippery Salesman?’”
“‘Where do you keep your money?’ was one question, with the possible answers being ‘Certainly not in a hedge fund; I leave that to the local government,’ or ‘A nice man with aftershave takes care of it for me.’”
While not a local ob, I did get contacted by a firm producing a documentary on subprime this week. So if any lenders, current or former, reading here want to send me a brief email of their relevant experiences, I’ll be happy to forward that to them.
“a firm producing a documentary on subprime”
You might also want to tell them that “the great untold story” is that it’s not just subprime…alt-A and prime are in trouble and getting worse.
Or, just forget it, they will find out soon enough (E*Trade, Countrywide, Wells, WaMu, etc.)
That’s what I figured..
America also has $2.49 trillion in credit card debt. Most Americans are carrying an average household balance (total of all cards and all family members) of about $8500; and most of them are handling that just fine — however, about 20+% of them are late by one or more payment. Ok … so my “back of the envelope” calculation indicates credit card debt is another $50 trillion debt bomb out there to stir in with subprime, alt A and non-revolving debt (big ticket items like cars, etc.). Could be a recipe for trouble but I’m no expert.
“‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
No….but the grocery store gets sued out the wazoo under a products liability claim. All that matters is that they were within the distribution framework and it was foreseeable that someone gets harmed.
These guys should at least consult a personal injury attorney before piping off about their supposed innocence.
Particularly if the store NEW it had contaminated meat and sold it regardless.
KNEW not NEW
Need to catch up on sleep….
We blame grocery store when it KWONS that meat contains E.coil and keep selling it.
Lots of people blame morgage brokers because they(brokers) knew that product is extrrmly bad and kept selling it.
Apples and oranges my friends. E Coli can kill you - a bad mortgage will cause some grief, but it’s not going to kill you.
No, but it can kill the economy.
I vote that the lenders (including all Wall Streeters & assorted ilk) KNEW what they were doing, right from the beginning, and figued they’d sort it out later (at taxpayers’ expense).
It’s like some parents bringing a couple of kegs to a high school party. Yes, the kids should say “no,” but it’s the adults who knew better.
Mortgage professionals KNEW, whereas J6 has limited knowledge & experience & is likely to believe what an “expert” (whose services he feels he /she is paying for) tells the borrower.
Ironic or intentional, I still L’dOL.
Good post.
Interesting analogy, but not really accurate. Because people usually don’t get called up by pushy agents of the grocery store, hard-selling their meat. A better analogy: “When junkies O.D. on bad heroin, do we arrest the dealer who sold the product?” Answer: “Yes.”
‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store?
Which will cause more blood to come out of your ass: e. coli or a toxic mortgage?
“‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
I find it ironic they are linking bad mortgages with E-coli. Are they willing to recall these mortgages? I think not.
I must look creditworthy, or maybe gullible, because the last couple of open houses I visited, the realtors were on me like e-coli on undercooked hamburger.
‘Are they willing to recall these mortgages? ‘
- Usually there is a refund with the recall.
“‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
What if the grocery store owner *knew* it was contaminated with E Coli, and through some perverse arrangement with the meat packers, was offered *incentives* to inload the E Coli meat?
Yes, if they knew it was bad meat and still sold it then they are too liable. Stop passing the buck!
“‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store?”
Um, yes, actually we do. Thank you, please drive through.
“The losses on securities tied to the U.S. housing market are providing plenty of fodder for Norwegian comics, who compare the towns of Rana, Hemnes, Narvik and Hattfjelldal to naive country bumpkins taken in by big city hucksters.”
“big city hucksters” is a nice way of saying that American grifters were responsible…
I don’t see how USA’ns are any more at fault for what multinationals did.
You would think that countries that grew wealthy dealing with the Nazis would be a little less naive. Boo hoo for all of those poor Scandinavians.
I wish you knew a little about what you were talking about…
The nazis invaded Norway, they weren’t asked to come.
There’s a movie waiting to be made about this real-life adventure, in nazi-occupied Norway…
“Throughout history, invaders have realized that to conquer a country completely, they must first confiscate its wealth. By the same token, countries historically have gone to incredible extremes to guard their treasures against over-zealous attackers. Such a country was Norway, when in the early days of World War II, a small band of Norwegian bank employees foiled the plans of what was then the world’s most powerful army. The time was April 9, 1940, and Oslo was being invaded by the Germans. To avoid confiscation of Norway’s valuable gold reserves, the bank crew fled north – taking 26 trucks crammed with 50 tons of Scandinavian gold bars and coins!”
http://www.govmint.com/knowledgebase/nordichoard.aspx
The Norwegians, yes. The Swedes? The Danes? Hmmm… They preferred making a deal with the devil. Not that they had a great choice. Shame on the Brits for not getting to Norway in time.
“Shame on the Brits for not getting to Norway in time. ”
Shame on the US for sitting on its backside until 30 months after the war began.
Lend-Lease barely got through the Congress - and that was after the fall of mainland Europe.
GB was the only one left in the fight against Germany after June ‘40. Gee - guess they should have called up Hitler and ask him to put the Battle of Britain on hold so they could commit all resources to Norway.
Oh Lad, you crack me up. Give me one of your history lessons please. Tell me about the Russians and Rwanda. Your past lessons have been so enlightening. I know the history of Narvik. I know the history of World War II. And I wrote “the Scandinavians”.
Nice attempt to squirm out of your broad brush one size fits all, statement.
Like when you tried to compare the American housing situation to the genocide in Rwanda? That was some serious humor.
My words from November 27, nothing to do about housing…
“I remember when Rwanda went wrong, thinking to myself what could cause such levels of human depravity?”
“We’ve set ourselves up for a big fall, and how low we stoop is up to us…”
Yep. As silly today as it was on November 27th. The implication was clearly that we could turn into Rwanda due to the housing bust. 500,000 people died in a country of less than 9,000,000. You really think that applies to the housing bust?
I was talking of the American people, but thanks for suggesting otherwise.
“The nazis invaded Norway, they weren’t asked to come.”
Perhaps, but besides Quisling there was Knut Hamsun, the Nobel prize winning novelist and the most well-known man in Norway at the time. He most definitely asked the Nazis to come. Hamsun was a rabid England-hater and he personally met with Hitler and lauded him.
Hamsun was a great writer, very widely read, and one of the best-loved authors in the world in the early 20th century; sadly, he was removed from all reading lists in the West and has been almost forgotten due to being blacklisted for his pro-Nazi stance.
That’s your view looking from the inside looking out, imagine a foreigners view, looking from the outside looking in.
All the blame financially is coming squarely at us, and the Dollar in particular.
“All the blame financially is coming squarely at us, and the Dollar in particular.”
WTF? So every other nation was duped? What a joke!
If you had any grasp on history, you’d know that the 1st person or country to do something is praised or blamed.
Nobody remembers the 2nd…
And our bad finance has screwed almost every other one of our peer group of countries, and it was 1st.
What if I told you that your investments were worth bupkis, because a Norwegian financial giant made bad investments for you?
Rinse and repeat, with a few dozen countries…
Thanks for the chuckle. I was waiting to see the phrase, “the great Satan” somewhere in your post.
Maybe we should appoint one of your Soviet tsars to fix the problem. Ha ha.
–
“The losses on securities tied to the U.S. housing market are providing plenty of fodder for Norwegian comics, who compare the towns of Rana, Hemnes, Narvik and Hattfjelldal to naive country bumpkins taken in by big city hucksters.”
“big city hucksters” = financial “Gangs Of New York?”
BTW, according to a historian the term huckster is the best description of an American.
Jas
“a historian”
Who? Sounds highly unlikely.
Any anonymous person’s opinion is always good enough for Jas
“‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
Not once ever have I been enticed to buy sub-prime e-coli laced meat in the supermarket, because it was attractively priced, nor have I ever seen meat advertised as such.
Now as far as financing, it appears that anything goes, and went.
It wasn’t a bad product, it was economic savagery. But blame goes to the banks first — if you put out a buffet of free booze and bullets, the people will get drunk and shoot each other, and/or themselves.
Second, you bet the mid- and street-level brokers are culpable. I have one local anecdote where a guy selling co-ops had a couple approved for a 1 bedroom unit at 175K on a 30-year fixed. His company was going straight to a bank that wasn’t doing subprime.
The couple got shanghaied by a realtor who got them approved for a $400K house with a suicide loan.
Co-op salesman advised them to go to a retail bank and try to get approved for a 30-year at $400K with their income — with the intent of showing them they couldn’t afford the loan, amd also provide them with an out at the closing table.
Of course he was trying to save his own deal, but he was also trying to act in the best interest of the client.
The couple in question went with the $400K house — and we all know where they probably are now.
In normal times, there are always scammers. But from what I am seeing in a small residential brokerage, the bad guys overwhelmed those trying to work by the rules. There was an orgy in the streets and the authorities, from fed to state to local, did nothing.
Not only did “They” do nothing, i think that history will show that “They” fostered, enabled and cheered this plundering along.
There have already been some infamous Greenspan quotes around and in fact it almost appears he was the chief enabler of this armaggedon with his 1% interest rates and the touting of Arms loans right at the bottom of the interest rate cycle.
I think bottom line it is still the sheeple. There are plenty on this blog that avoided all the shams and exotic loans. There’s no reason why others couldn’t have done the same. Everyone thought they were going to get rich quick, move up to mcmansion, cash out and retire, etc. I can remember telling people there’s no way it can continue to go up year after year - there’s not enough people making enough to buy houses at these prices. Easy to get drugs anywhere anytime, but I know better and if I buy the drugs, it’s my bad.
“I think bottom line it is still the sheeple.”
Reminds me of a line from the movie “The Magnificent Seven”:
“Senor, If God did not want them sheared, He would not have made them sheep.”
“‘Just imagine how many lottery tickets they could have got for 400 million kroner,’ Jon Almaas, the host of Norway’s most-watched television program, joked on a recent episode. ‘Or, for fear of appearing old-fashioned, they could have spent it on health and education.’”
I don’t care what anyone says, this is just funny stuff! Nothing like a little public shaming to boot!
Pen here,
reporting in from the Commiewealth of Massachusetts..
The mayor of Boston is unhappy with the bailout, because it’s not enough. The govenor is oddly silent. The 30 yr fixed conforming is at 6% and the 30 jumbo is at 6.75%, so if rates as “high” as those are stifling the market, then I must be missing something. If an FB can not refi their toxic mtge to either of the 30 year fixed rate mtges that I reference above, then there isn’t any way they are ever going to become current and solvent on their “homes”.
As far as the market goes, inventory is +/- 5% of so from where it has been for about a year. Both sellers and buyers are continuing their breath-holding and staring contests with both groups turning more blue than a John Kerry and Ted Kennedy supporter.
Prices are falling, but not fast enough across the board. I suspect that anything that closes is simply setting a new lowere comp.
I don’t think the freezing of rates is going to help many FBs. I can’t wait to hear what the lenders really think about, once the lip-service rhetoric stops. I bet their fingers are crossed behind their backs. I’m sure the lawyers have been called and the cases are being prepared.
One thing that I have noticed is that there are some houses that appear to be reasonably priced, but aren’t selling. Let’s face it, we’re talking about big numbers here and even small price drops of 5% - 10% would add up to big $$$ losses. Given that the zero down programs are gone, anyone with half a brain isn’t going to want to see ANY portion of thier hard-earned down payment evaporate.
I visited Boston in November 2005. The market was booming and everybody was a genius except for those not owning.
I visited again in October 2007 and the mood was somber. Prices were getting killed. Now they need major bailouts.
How come none of these government officials have to answer for their actions during the boom?
“How come none of these government officials have to answer for their actions during the boom?”
hahahahaha..you’re f’in kidding, right?
our “officials” never answer for anything and the suckers here in MA, keep electing them. The pols here have the place locked up and everbody knows it, especially them. They have made sure that there is enough patronage and nepotism, to keep them “protected” forever.
Not that I would personally know of this experience, but it’s like the US was under some Oxycontin cloud of euphoria for the past 5 years. Everyone was getting high, and lo and behold, all the fundamentals were cast aside (like that baby in Trainspotting). The HBB Cassandras weren’t invited cuz they were bumming out the big party.
Opening lines from Trainspotting:
“Choose life. Choose a job. Choose a career. Choose a family. Choose a fucking big television, Choose washing machines, cars, compact disc players, and electrical tin openers. Choose good health, low cholesterol and dental insurance. Choose fixed- interest mortgage repayments. Choose a starter home. Choose your friends. Choose leisure wear and matching luggage. Choose a three piece suite on hire purchase in a range of fucking fabrics. Choose DIY and wondering who you are on a Sunday morning. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing sprit- crushing game shows, stuffing fucking junk food into your mouth. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pishing you last in a miserable home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, fucked-up brats you have spawned to replace yourself. Choose your future. Choose life… But why would I want to do a thing like that?
“
Rocka..rocka…rocka…cession…..
“The HBB Cassandras weren’t invited cuz they were bumming out the big party.”
Yer harshing my mellow, man!
I tried being an optimist once - it gave me the same feeling as whenever I lock my keys in a car.
Thats right I knew a guy who was busy calculating how much of a negitive cash flow he could take renting out investment properties and still make money, because property always goes up in CA.
You mean like overseeing two preventable economic bubbles and then retiring in luxury with sweetheart book deals? Or taking the nation into a war based on lies and then having it turn into one of the biggest foriegn policy disasters in our history?
Yep. Accountable only applies to a small segment of the masses. I think that would be you and I. The rest seem to get away with anything they want.
‘The mayor of Boston is unhappy with the bailout, because it’s not enough.’
- Fast forward to SoCal. This week CongressWoman Maxine Waters held a press conference demanding more help for her black community because they were ‘taken advantage of’.
All that I can say is ‘Decisions have Consequences.’
“more help for her black community because they were ‘taken advantage of’.”
Maxene should be happy…her “community” proved to be just as greedy and mania-prone as every other “community” in the country. Ain’t equality grand.
Give her credit for representing her constituents, however. She is doing her job, the job she was elected to do.
Racism in its purist form.
Good point. It seems that there was no redlining during the bubble so that shows progress on that front.
I wish one of our esteamed (pun intended) representatives would actually advocate personal responsibility and just say, “Come on people, you signed on the dotted line, now honor the dang contract or give back the house!”
Incoming president David Erickson singled out the surge in creative mortgage products as fueling problems with subprime loans.”
Now with proposals like increasing the conforming limit above $417,000 and freezing rates on existing loans, getting Freddie and Fannie to take on more risky mortgages, and lowering FHA standards, it’s all just more creative financing designed to sucker more new buyers into over paying for homes they can’t afford. These efforts to artificially support prices above what people can really afford is just doing more of what created this mess. Putting more people into over priced homes will only make the problem bigger. The problem will get dragged out over ten years. At least we can keep those interest payments flowing to the lenders in the meantime. Which is whats it’s all about, keeping the debts slaves tied to the treadmill making those payments.
“debts slaves”
home loans, car loans, credit cards, student loans, motorcycle loans, boat loans, store cards, etc… America is totally addicted to debt.
Every credit card, mtge, car loan, etc. should come with an amortization schedule, showing the breakout of interest/principal for all periods in the term. The running total of interest paid and principal owed should also be present. Maybe, just maybe, if the sheople saw the numbers, then they’d wise up a bit.
My personal goals from here on are: when I finally buy a house is to take a 30yr fixed and pay it off in 10 years or less, no more car loans (maybe a 1 yr), I don’t carry credit card debt and never have/will - soley a cash substitute.
But, but, but, the greatness of the American way of life is based on Credit. You must hate the troops.
‘Every credit card, mtge, car loan, etc. should come with an amortization schedule’
- Are you suggesting that Bank Of America provide this info in Spanish when they give credit cards to their illegal customers?
“My personal goals from here on are: when I finally buy a house is to take a 30yr fixed and pay it off in 10 years or less,…”
Consider a 15yr fixed, as you might get a lower interest rate.
Personally I like to make the credit card companies pay me. I have a 1% cash back card with no annual fee. I spend about $1000 to $1500 a month which gives me about $10 - $15 a month. The important thing is to make sure I pay it off each month.
Actually, the credit card companies are not paying you - the merchant is. The card companies typically take around 2% on a transaction. My guess the card company is betting on an average the bill will not be paid on time.
Careful with those rewards cards, I blinked and my APR went from 16 to 35%.
“These efforts to artificially support prices above what people can really afford is just doing more of what created this mess.”
How do you get rid of a hangover? The hair of the dog that bit you (ie take another drink).
AP Story from the Pensacola News Journal
“States’ investment strategy scrutinized”
http://tinyurl.com/366eyn
“Troubles first emerged as Florida officials disclosed their $27 billion investment pool had about $2 billion sunk into subprime-tainted debt…”
I’ll believe it is “only” $2B / 7.4% when I see the financial statements. From that article, Montana looks pretty screwed. Fortunately, they have tumbleweeds ‘n stuff. I hear those are selling well on the Net.
Hey, “all but $90 million” are high-grade SIVs! doesn’t that count for something?
Can’t they dump these things or are they stuck?
“Fannie Mae’s announcement came as a bit of a shock because the government-sponsored firm was long known as a financially cushy place to work.”
[Comment removed from server due to excessive profanity.]
““For employees of District-based Fannie Mae, retirement is looking less secure.”
These folks ought to read up on the French Revolution, to find out how much sympathy they’ll get. It just sucks that the top dogs apparently get away without any of the pain their minions might feel.
FNMA cuts its dividend, cuts its retirement benefits, and attempts to sell more stock. Sounds like the people who run the place realize that FNMA is in trouble. Paycuts and layoffs should be next; but not for the top people. The board will determine that they can’t afford to lose talented executives during such a troubled time. So as an inducement for the top execs to stay expect some nice bonuses to be awarded payable in December, 2008.
Just like the co I work for..gotta keep those top execs. give em bonuses to keep making bad decisions.
Right on DD - got to attract those big playas to be competitive while the people that really do the work have to understand that during hard times, they’re lucky to have a job and shouldn’t push for raises or even stable benefits.
“Two officers with the Washington Association of Mortgage Brokers defended their roles at an Olympian editorial board meeting Wednesday and said their industry was largely not to blame for the nation’s subprime mortgage crisis. Incoming president David Erickson singled out the surge in creative mortgage products as fueling problems with subprime loans.”
Well, maybe didn’t create the toxic loans..but they sure did push them, in order to earn larger commissions.
I see the (central) Tucson holdouts ( $200+/sqFt asking price , azzhatz) making a comeback after BendOver BurnAnkle’s 0.5 bps Wall St. pig-men “wealthfare” & Dumbya’s FB bailout.
As one greedy FB once said: ” I knew the gubmint is not gonna rob me of my equity”
“‘It was a very bad product,’ said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago. ‘When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available.’”
Nice try, Mortgage Boy. Here’s the crucial point: If the Grocery store knowingly and wittingly continues to sell tainted meat, with the full knowledge it will sicken and even kill many customers - and they deliberately conceal the risks of said meat, and consequences, to the extent possible, because the meat plant is paying them a commission on “product” they can move - then yes, you CAN blame the grocery store. You can also sue them and bar them from doing further business. So the “e-coli” contaminated meat analogy is more apt than the mortgage sharks would have the sheeple and their asleep-on-the-job public guardians believe.
Here in New York the mood is definitely shifting. People that had grandiose ideas for projects, especially in the boroughs are starting to sweat. The investors that have projects that are complete are realizing that they are not going to be getting what they hoped to get. Many are wondering if they will get out with their shirts in tact. I still see optimism on the parts of some of the people that made a fortune in the last 15 years but their outlook seems to be getting darker. It is the offhanded comments that you hear that stop you in your tracks. Their pessimism is subtle. The mood is changing and we all know what perception means to the real estate world.
Are NYC cab drivers and hair dressers still trying to emulate The Donald these days?
What credit crunch? People are buying $71,000 cocktails in London.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/dec/08/consumeraffairs.creditcrunch
How else do you wash down a $1,000 pizza?..
http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSN1429852020070315
Repost from a couple days ago:
Just checked on the 2,600 sf bubble property I “adopted” here in Encinitas (north coastal San Diego County). Though resisting price reductions for the past 2 months, the realtor finally dropped the price from $924,950 to the low, low “below market” of $899,876. All from the previous Zillow high of $984,876.
Zillow is a joke. There is no way they are up to the task of forecasting the price of falling knives.
Too true. You could tell this realtor was basing his pricing on Zillow, and gave up after a couple months. Wishing price = priceless.
Zillow may be a joke… but I’ve noticed recently that it appears to be doing a decent job of showing approximately $20K/month price drops, since July 1st, on some houses in southern Marin that are in the $1 million range.
I am aware that part of these price changes are due to seasonal factors. However, I’m not sure that every fall they were going down at about a $4,500/week rate… month after month.
Speaking of a joke…
I did overhear earlier this week (before the official “bailout” announcement - call it what you will) some service sector job wage/tip slaves expressing their nervousness over making their property tax payments.
One then uttered to another, “And I have to get me one of them lower rates, too.”
Some may disagree, but from here it appears that Alan Greenspan and the “Do Nothing” Fed’s policies did nothing, if not actually push “personal responsibility” farther away from almost all levels of society.
Heck if we don’t SEE “personal responsibility” from our
selected and elected officials and CEO/execs..local gov officials and our Religious “leaders” then gosh… who are ‘we’ to emulate?
Still wearing panties,driving W/O alcohol,obeying street signs and not hitting on school boys…
massage therapists/meth dealers, or pages,what else….desertdweller.
“Fed’s policies did nothing, if not actually push “personal responsibility” farther away from almost all levels of society.”
“…but I’ve noticed recently that it appears to be doing a decent job of showing approximately $20K/month price drops,…”
Either they follow the market down, or risk transforming themselves from mere joke to outright laughing stock.
The house I’ve been watching in Santa Barbara has gone down from a high of $1.2M one year ago to $950K this week.
“Zillow may be a joke… but I’ve noticed recently that it appears to be doing a decent job of showing approximately $20K/month price drops, since July 1st, on some houses in southern Marin that are in the $1 million range.”
Where you stand can depend on where you get your pay check. Who owns Zillow — who are their advertisers? They look like an arm of the real estate world me me, but I’m just an uninformed consumer.
That property was maybe 300k in the late 90’s. yeck.
Good news for anyone in the market for a San Diego starter home:
The median used home list price shown on ziprealty.com has fallen off its lofty high north of $500,000 a couple of years ago to a far-more affordable $450,000. There are currently 19,101 used homes listed on SD zip, which means the median home is rank order statistic number 9551 (=19,202/2) when the listings are ranked on list price.
Turns out the median is exactly at $450,000, and in fact, there are currently 171 homes priced to sell at exactly $450,000.
Median-priced San Diego starter homes for everyone!
Oh goody. All my friends with service sector jobs in San Diego are going to jump right in. But wait, everyone wants to live here and they’re not making any more land.
Here is a data summary which shows how badly the credit crunch hammered the SD real estate market. I provide a brief summary here, but the data is available at the linked .pdf report:
Month “Value of Closed Sales”
1/07 $1.0 bn
2/07 $1.1 bn
3/07 $1.5 bn
4/07 $1.5 bn
5/07 $1.5 bn
6/07 $1.6 bn
7/07 $1.4 bn
8/07 $1.3 bn
9/07 $0.87 bn
10/07 $0.90 bn
This market has not completely died, but it has definitely tanked.
http://sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/10-2007/October-2007.pdf
I just thought of a much more informative way to summarize the Sandicor data; I computed the YOY % decline field using the raw numbers, not the rounded figures displayed below:
“Value of Closed Sales ($ bn)”
Month 2006 2007 “YOY % Decline”
1 1.1 1.0 -9.6%
2 1.2 1.1 -8.3%
3 1.8 1.5 -16.1%
4 1.7 1.5 -7.3%
5 1.8 1.5 -17.0%
6 1.8 1.6 -10.5%
7 1.5 1.4 -10.0%
8 1.6 1.3 -15.9%
9 1.3 0.87 -34.0%
10 1.3 0.90 -30.9%
11 1.2 ? -??.?%
12 1.4 ? -??.?%
Conclusions:
1) Total value of closed sales were down YOY in each month.
2) Total value of closed sales were down by double-digit YOY amounts in each month since May 07.
3) Total value of closed sales were down by over 30 percent YOY in September and October.
4) TIMBER!!!
One further point on the $450,000 current median list price: In a “buyers market” like the one at hand, homes generally sell for less than listed, so this would appear to be a high-end estimate of the price at which SD homes are currently selling. However, it is possible that the credit crunch has disproportionately disqualified would-be borrowers who would have bought low-end housing a couple of years ago, while high earners can still qualify for a loan; this confounding factor would work in favor of a higher median sale price relative to the median list price.
One more local market observation: The total value of closed sales reported by Sandicor for 2006 was $17.7 bn. I don’t claim to be making a prediction for 2008 or anything, but 30 percent of that figure is more than $5 bn. Luckily the resilient SD economy can easily absorb $5 bn in lost used home sales activity.
I was told today I can buy a 1 acre property with a house on it in N San diego county for 500K now. Like in Vista ?
Vista, Fallbrook, Escondido…certainly worth a try, if you’re up to it.
I think a lot of “sellers” will take just about any offer (over 2003 prices) they can get their hands on.
OTOH, this is just beginning & we don’t know how this will fall & what he social/economic impacts will be over the next few years.
We have not yet reached the point where elephants can no longer be hidden under the living room rug yet. But the living room has definitely begun to smell very bad at this point…
Update on Santa Clara Ca..(Silicon Valley) 95050-54
I believe my last post on this was in early October…First few months of the year we had roughly 50 single family homes for sale…This is very low inventory for a town of 100,000 +…Inventory has slowly increased over the year peaking at around 200 + - a month or so ago…We have pulled back slightly to 187 as I post….
The market is very spotty…Some homes move very quickly and others languish…Example #1…2000 +- sq. ft 7 year old, 4000 sq ft lot in 95051….Put on the market for 950k..5 days had 4 offers…Sold for 1050k +-……Example #2….Brand new home in 95054…1900 sq.ft. on 5000 sq ft lot…ask 850k…Been on the market for 6 months…zero offers….
I would describe demand as weak…Comparable to 1992….Some area’s just outside my zip have a disconnect…..Cupertino Ca…1150 sq ft…ask 945k…1 week…7 offers…sells for 1060k…Move down the road 2 miles…Same home sits on the market for 6 months with no offers….Area’s around the successful employers, H.P., Apple, Google etc. are still hot…
We have a lot of condo’s that have come online that will likely end up as rentals at least for the near term…
To sum it up and like I suggested above the mood is similar to 1992 with the disconnect of some pocket area’s….Its not going to get better baring some significant reduction in interest rates thereby narrowing the rent vs. buy decision…If something happens in the local job market (significant layoffs) or a significant increase in interest rates it would get real ugly real fast….I am talking about 1982 ugly or worse…
I will post again in March 08…Merry Christmas everyone..And thanks again Ben for all your hard work…
scdave
“We’re offering product that is available.’”
So do drug dealers and pimps, how are you different again ?
Note from Chicago suburb (Oak Park): the expensive townhouse market collapsed ($650K stuff.) New condo market drifting down. Old stuff recently refurbished–>stuff not selling because people want parking spaces which they don’t offer. Family housing prices don’t seem to have collapsed, but I think the market has frozen up.
Oak Park is gradually drifting more upscale, partly because we’re getting the people who can’t afford the Gold Coast but still have money to burn. We mainly cater to the tourist trade and I don’t see that changing–we’ll always have the Frank Lloyd Wright tourists, the artsy-craftsy Mission Design stores, and the local restaurants (which are still packed.) Village of Oak Park has been having financial conniption fits recently, but this has been due more to problems with the public parking garages not bringing in expected amounts rather than collapse of housing prices. (They in fact forced certain builders to keep stuff off the market several years ago because they didn’t want the market to be flooded at that point.)
Grumpy — you picked up on a point I’ve noticed here in central Florida. More and more condo buyers require at least one covered, dedicated parking space and increasing numbers want two dedicated spaces. I suppose that is a natural result of increasing numbers of two-income families and a presumed reduction in the proportion of winter-only residents as current buyers.
The city of Albuquerque did a beautification project on the road connecting the airport terminal to the freeway. In the median is some nice desert motif which includes a lot of Joshua Trees. It is an attractive design.
Picture this. You are arriving or leaving Albuquerque and riding along this road. Perched on top of each Joshua Tree is some of our favorite characters. Imagine seeing Greedscam, Old Leatherface, Fun Yun, Liahrah, “in the bag” Gary Watts, LAY, Crisp, Cole, Bernake, Robert Toll, that scumbag from Ameriquest, and any mortgage broker, realtor, anyone else I might have missed, or the sob story lying flippers that you would love to hate sitting there after receiving a personalized JT treatment from our own ex-NNVbroker. Ben would be present, of course, to record and report. TXChick would be there to do the flogging afterward. What a beautiful site this would be. What do you think? Nice picture?
Pigs are flying and Hell has frozen over….Seattle prices are actually showing the very first YOY declines.
Seattle’s private “bailout” plan shall be as follows:
1) Everyone in the country shall be required to buy Vista
2) Everyone in the country shall be required to drink a cup of Starbucks every morning
3) Everyone in the country shall be required to replace their current MP3 player with a Zune
4) Everyone in the country shall be required to buy a Boeing jet (zero down special financing terms available)
5) A special OEP (Office of Economic Propoganda) will be established that makes it mandatory to always take the absolute value of median price changes before publication in the local news
There…that should save Seattle and keep us “special”.
“Seattle prices are actually showing the very first YOY declines”
I don’t believe it…the Pacific northwest is special, it won’t fall. I know, because people have told me so.
Oregon has been singing the special song loudly for some time also. We too are having some “slight” reductions in price (we are still a bargain compared to San Diego). But the rub is our average wages are pretty low. We should require all hbb’s report to give: average price of a home in your area, unemployment rate, average household income. It would make all our comments more meaningful, huh?
(San Jose, CA) Mercury News
Homes - or piggy banks?
DOWNTURN IN HOUSING MARKET DIMINISHING OWNERS’ EQUITY
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_7669412
” Piece by piece, some gave away their homes by tapping equity to take cash out to pay for cars, weddings and vacations. Others never owned one brick. During the country’s most recent housing boom, the term “homeowner” became a misnomer as lenders offered 100 percent or more home financing to some buyers.”
…
” But the recent drop in average value is particularly bad news for homeowners who treated their homes as piggy banks instead of as savings accounts. Nationwide, they drained $468.7 billion out of their homes in 2004 through home equity loans or cash-out refinancings, according to a report this year from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Fed senior economist James Kennedy. Fifty-eight percent of that cash went to home improvements and personal spending, while 27 percent paid off credit card debt.”
Isn’t “personal spending” and “credit card debt” almost the same thing?
Los Angeles local economy:
LA Times
December 8, 2007
Writers, studios break off talks
The five-week-old strike continues after negotiations stall with the two sides still far apart.
http://tinyurl.com/yu9vew
“If talks don’t resume soon, the strike will have far-reaching consequences across Hollywood and for many businesses throughout the region that depend on the industry…
…A continued walkout won’t affect only the 10,500 writers on picket lines, but also thousands of other workers — from crew members and actors to talent agents and studio office employees. Already, the strike has taken a heavy toll on so-called below-the-line production workers who work behind the scenes on film and TV shows.
“It’s going to be a very black Christmas for everybody,” said veteran producer Alan Ladd Jr., whose credits include the Oscar winner “Braveheart.”
The television industry, which already has been disrupted by the shutdown of more than 50 shows, will be even harder hit. Virtually all scripted TV shows are expected to stop production by next week, causing a loss of 15,000 jobs and costing the Los Angeles economy about $21 million a day in direct production spending, according to one recent estimate.”
This writers strike reminds me of the supermarket strike of about 3 years ago, in the city of angles…
Overpaid ingrates, that eventually have to go back to their jobs with their tales, between their legs.
So lets get this straight.. you want ALL ceos execs to get all the money, and take away all the money from workers to ‘compete’ with Walmart and other such co.s?
You mean you want execs ceos etc to Mismanage and get all the rewards for their poorly exercised “skills”?
You want this scenario to get continue the ruination of middle USA and just work for da man?
Not really, because TV and screen writing is something the studios can’t hire recent immigrants, high school students and retired folk to do. It’s a little bit different than being a grocery store clerk. This may come as a shock, but it actually takes talent and imagination to write a screenplay and years of hard work to develop a TV show and get it on the air.
“This writers strike reminds me of the supermarket strike of about 3 years ago, in the city of angles…
Overpaid ingrates, that eventually have to go back to their jobs with their tales, between their legs.”
Judging from the dreck they’ve been putting out for years now, it doesn’t take a particular talent, no.
Reality TV who need writers ?
Have you actually been watching TV recently? Have you seen any of the outstanding current TV dramas like “Damages”, “Madmen”, “Battlestar Gallactica”, “The Shield”, “Rescue Me”, “Nip/Tuck”, “The Closer”, “Lost”, “24″, or “NUMBERS”? How about the shows where most young people these days get their news: “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report”? Ever seen “The Simpsons”, “Family Guy”, “South Park” and “King of the Hill”? All these shows are written by people in the WGA, who are currently on strike.
“Judging from the dreck they’ve been putting out for years now, it doesn’t take a particular talent, no.”
The Weather Channel is unaffected - and that’s all that really matters.
Yours are the only puns that don’t bring me to the verge of mayhem. Just wanted to let you know your wit is appreciated.
That’s because Aladinsane understands that a pun involves homonyms, or words that sound alike, but have different etymologies - here punning “tales” and “tails.” It’s an absolute requirement for a pun - slightly different meanings of the same word do not, can not, and never will constitute a pun. 95% or more of people are too ignorant to understand this. (One of my pet peeves, along with people who say “begging the question” for “raising the question” and, oh yeah, people who say FOH-ward for forward. I feel better now.)
Overpaid? You are completely clueless on this one, aladinsane. A working writer does do well, but, in an average year, there are only about a thousand or so writers earning a good living (above 200K). The rest are either unemployed or scratching and clawing to get any job. When you see the numbers trotted out by the producers (average writer earns 200/yr), they take into account people like Seinfeld, who might earn 50 million in a year, and, at the same time, they don’t take into account the 6,000 writers who didn’t earn a dime this year.
One could say the very same thing about actors and actresses
Woefully overpaid…
Seinfeld’s getting paid for his writing in this case. And again, of the 130,000 or so SAG members, only a tiny fraction are earning a living. I realize that ignorance doesn’t prevent people from commenting here. In fact, it seems to be the very fuel that keeps these off-topic discussions aflame. Whether or not the top dogs in the entertainment profession are overpaid doesn’t mitigate the fact that the rank-and-file are underpaid, or not paid at all. Not asking for sympathy, just perspective. And a perhaps tiny dash of intelligence. In the case of the WGA strike, all we’re asking is that, as the mode of content delivery changes from DVD to streaming video etc., we get fairly compensated for these changes. (There are other issues, but this is the main one.)
From an outsiders perspective…
The entertainment industry looks to thrive on nepotism and occasionally real ability, but the two are usually mutually exclusive of one another.
Ah, it does survive on nepotism, and random luck, which is why it is such a demeaning, infuriating business. Part of that has to do with the sheer numbers mentioned above. The amount of competition for each job is staggering. The other reason why it’s such a difficult business and also why you see so much dreck is that the business model works completely backwards from a creative model. The business model understands that value of an idea as something that can be marketed and sold, but doesn’t necessarily care so much about the actual quality of the finished idea. It’s why something like I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry gets made. An executive hears the idea, can instantly see the poster, bingo. Call Adam Sandler, you’re on your way. With only a handful of movies being made each year, these poster-driven vehicles take up a lot of the business. And it really has increasingly become a business, much more interested in cross-platforming and integrating media, etc., but not making good stuff. Increasingly the “people” running the studios have changed from being movie producers, people who really know how a movie is made, to business people, the men and women who know how to squeeze every last dime out of the consumer. There’s a company called Walden that buys books to make movies, then, through its educational ties, puts these books in schools through exclusive agreements, then creates educational DVDs to push their product further. Not to mention toys etc. Yuck. It’s a miracle that good movies and TV are out there at all.
Please excuse my rambling rant.
That’s not at all how the supermarket strike worked out as I recall. They had to compromise on pay and benefits for new workers. Ingrates? It sounds like you want everyone except the overpaid upper echelon and middle management to work for minimum wage and be glad they have a job, while the fatcats just get more and more.
Just give the jobs to Americans not willing to work jobs elsewhere.
Same builder has the same auction going on next weekend here in the Portland, OR area. The first auction, a couple of weeks ago, had around 280 homes up for auction. (If I recall correctly). Now they have only 240 left. Better get in before you are priced out forever!!
Interesting letter to current owners from the builder on the web site. Baically tells the owners, don’t worry about these low prices, it is only to sucker -er I mean entice- all the buyers to come in and pay much more than the beginning bid. Yeah, and that is why they only have 240 of 280 homes left to auction off.
http://www.buenavistahomes.com/auction.php
Flip This House has stopped new episodes from what I can tell. They rerun old episodes, and at the insistence of their attorneys, add a one minute disclaimer at the end to make it clear that the flipper didnt really get the price that the tv realtor said it was worth, and most properties sold for materially less, are being rented cause it couldnt sell, or the flipper had to move in to prevent foreclosure. Most flippers still say they view it as a learning experience and plan to flip again. Real work is just too damned hard.
Flip this House in PSP was a guy I met once. The RE agent I know saw the same show and asked the agent on the show…did he sell it for that price, he was TOLD to say that price, and NO the house is still with that owner and his mother. The Show tells you what to say and when.
Have listing agents figured out a way to subvert Zillow?
I use Zillow frequently to track properties in town and to see recent sales, price trends, etc. I just tried to look up this information on a condo that is for sale and found that none of the sales information was available, because of “insufficient information” on this particular unit.
I know that this is bulls$$t, because 1) this unit has been for sale for quite a while, and I have been able to access sales information on it before and, 2) Zillow still provides all this information on a recently sold condo in the same complex.
The only difference seems to be that the Zillow listing for the ‘for sale’ unit has been posted by the listing agent. And I can certainly see why the agent would want to conceal the valuation information, as the asking price on this unit is 28K (10%) more than the recent (June) sales price of the neighboring unit . . . .
Has anyone else had a similar experience with Zillow? Although I do think there are good arguments as to the potential inaccuracy of the ‘zestimate’ of an individual unit, I do find the sales, tax and general price trending information very useful, and it is really annoying to have this deliberately obscured. And Realtors wonder why so many people are upset with the profession?!
Not that problem, but in the past month or so, seen homes listed “for sale” on Zillow which are NOT for sale (shows listings from years ago!).
Didn’t see this before, so not sure if it’s a new problem or???
Thursday night I was at an office party. It was put on by a new tennet in the building, a mortgage broker. These guys had just excaped from Colorado. I guess Bozeman Mt. is a greener pasture. A number of realtors and land developers showed up. So I just shut up and listened. One women told me, “I don’t understand, we have all these people selling but no one is buying.” Anouther guy gave a long lecture on how the residental market was terrible, but, the comercial market is holding up. How he had made all of his money on comercial real estate. I thought it would bad form to ask about all the empty office and retail space around town, so I did not say anything. And I heard about all the projects were coming on line. It was all denial and rationalzation. There is plenty of signs that manure is starting to hit the fan in Bozerman. A week before I heard a major developer, who has been in Bozeman a long time, said ” I have never lost so much money before this year.” He then complained about a “million dollar home” that has been sitting eight months with out even an offer.
Interesting. I can’t get a peep out of people here in Missoula, but yeah there is an awful lot of commercial going begging, old and new. I couldn’t figure out why they keep building and thought there was some great tax incentive involved.
Also there are more resi developments in the planning stages. Where is the credit supposed to come from?
It reminds me of Dallas Texas when I moved there in 1986, the project are in the pipeline, there going get built even though there is a glut of space. Who cares if it wreaks the banking system. In 1990 I saw the same thing happen in Seatle Washington.
#@%#** Seattle
I just found this mcmansion for $1.2 mil, I think it’s been out there a looong time. It is fugly, too. Zillow doesn’t even show it but it seems to be in an area of 300k homes.
There are a lot mcmansions around Bozeman like that. A lot of them are spec-homes with builders holding notes they are unable to pay off. There also a lot of sub-contractors that haven’t been payed because the spec-home the builder can’t pay them either.
According to the Missoula Association of Realtors, November sales were off 23% from a year ago, and year to date sales were off 14%. The numbers are about the same for both in-town and out of town deals.
http://missoularealestate.com/index.php/fuseaction/market.main/ID/0d95f240
You would never know this from the Missoulian. There’s been almost nothing on the local housing market since October, when everything was supposedly groovy http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2007/11/01/bnews/br52.txt , They are running quite a bit about the national credit crunch, though.
In October there was a New West conference in Missoula dedicated to discussing real estate and development in the West. Since I didn’t pony up $200 to attend and the Missoulian didn’t bother to cover it, I had no idea what was said about the local market until I went to New West’s website. Most of the speakers were RE agents, so I’m sure you get the drift: Missoula’s unique, the only significant weakness is at the low end of the market, etc. http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/amenity_properties_hot_entry_level_housing_not/C61/L36/ But note that by low end, they mean houses under $300K, which are not affordable for the vast majority of local people. An economist was more pessimistic http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/thornberg_says_trouble_on_the_horizon_for_real_estate/C61/L36/
Below is the new blurb on the MAR website. It replaces one that talked about Missoula being insulated from the rest of the country’s mess. What in the world does it mean? Is the MAR now worried that we have moved from normal to…… a housing downturn??????!!!!!
“From about the mid-80s to the mid-90s, the Missoula real estate market reflected some consistent patterns of activity. Following the activity of the spring and early summer, in July the market slowed some and then geared up again in late summer and early fall before the winter/holiday slowdown with the cycle repeating again starting about March. As the unprecedented 15-year expansion of the real estate market really took hold in the mid-90s these patterns disappeared and the market stayed steady–and active–year round. The current market trends reflect a slowing in the local market, with the number of new listings, properties under contract, and properties sold all down from last month. In another time, this might have been viewed as just the normal pattern. In light of the recent market anomaly, it’s probably too soon to be comfortable with that conclusion. Nevertheless, continued low interest rates and a somewhat lower median price should encourage consumers considering homeownership to research the local market and specific neighborhoods. Numbers can only tell one part of the story.” http://missoularealestate.com/index.php/fuseaction/market.main/ID/0d95f240
At some point the news media in this state has got to stop covering up if they want any credibility.
As of a month ago, colleagues I know in Bozeman were still insisting that the new home market was just a little “slow,” it wasn’t really impacting existing home market, houses with land, houses in good neighborhoods, houses in town, etc…. Denial runs very strong in the Gallatin.
Like I wrote before, manure is starting to hit the fan. That major developer, I wish I could tell his name, has major cash flow problems. Mostly there is no cash flowing back from his projects or loans. Another place where there big problems from what I hear is Moonlight Basin.
Whoa, I just checked yahoo foreclosures and Missoula has 46 to Bozeman’s 13. But I have no idea what a normal foreclosure rate his here.
Oops, wrong. Compared city to county…we’re about the same. Lots of action in Flathead too.
Go to the Clerk and Recorders Office. Check out Notices of Trusties Sales. In Gallatin county all these type of records are on computer since 1990. Not all notices end up in sheriff sales, but I can tell you this. In Gallatin county between 1990 and 1998 there only three notices filled. The number began shooting up in 1999. The last time I checked there were about 160 this year.
Last month our local paper, The Bozeman Daily Cover-up, had an article on how there was no sub-prime problem in Montana. They Quoted some local mortgage broker, who said that 150 trusties sales was a normal number. The reporter didn’t bother to check out this statement, which is the usual practice with this paper.
A normal number is very few, why scare the readers by showing them the market has become risky. It might even give Bozeman a bad name. We can’t let that happen.
Do NOT rely upon Yahoo for the more rural -not-LA-not-major-city data. It gets pretty much everything wrong.
I would think that a lot of people in Bozo will be glad to see house prices fall some. I was offered a job there in the early 90s. The U was fairly apologetic about the wages, but they made a point of showing me around town, showcasing inexpensive housing. Essentially, they were saying that the low cost of living made up for the wages. Have wages really risen in Bozeman? And, if not, how can anyone afford to live there now?
Wages have gone up. But the cost of housing has gone up faster.
Even if you have a well paying job, you end up living in a dump. I asked a truck driver who making deleveries to the Pickel Barrel why they had to come from Billings every day to make deliveries. Billings is 150 miles away. The reason was simple, nobody in the compay could afford to live in Bozeman.
The other problem, a large portion of people in Bozeman are employed directly related to house building. A drop in home means a lot these high paying jobs are going away.
When you were in Bozeman in early 90’s the economy was recovering for its long depression of 1980’s. The recovery came because of Gibson Guitar, Lifelink, and VLC were manufacturing here. Bozeman went back to being small industrial town like it was before the 1960’s. VLC is gone, Lifelink is fading, there hasn’t anything new coming into Bozeman in the last six year of that type of industry. A reason is employies can’t afford to live here.
Anecdotal Syracuse stories:
A Baldwinsville seller whose open house I had attended called me this morning. I was surprised to hear from her because last time she called me I had explained that the reason I was renting is because I had deeply discounted my home and that her list price was way above what I had sold my larger more updated home at.
She had quickly gotten off the phone with a uptight good luck. Today she asked what price I was looking for. I told her I was kind of waiting for things to unwind and was in no hurry. She sounded so uptight as she told me her family was heading out of town to the midwest on Tuesday. I was surprised she didn’t understand if I really wanted her house that this situation would only help me. I felt sad for her. It wasn’t long ago I wasn’t sleeping wondering if even with our low price if we’d be able to move our home.
I did some research on foreclosure store dot com and found some nice places upside down. They were REOs. I wonder how scared the banks feel.
On Truliadotcom my target town only had 3 homes sell between Sept and Nov. (Usually the same period yields almost 100 sales 2006-2002) No 4 BR sales at all. Median sale price in lower $100ks while average list price was around $220k. Why am I hearing Queen’s “Under Pressure” in the background?
Wow. Big drop in sales.
CarrieAnn,
Thanks for the update, live in NYC but have family and friends upstate. Always look for your posts.
The collapse begins in New Zealand:
“It meant those who came into the market three to five years ago were enjoying interest rates in the high 6 per cent and low 7 per cent range. They were now facing re-mortgaging and coping with interest rates above 9 per cent.”
“If people start to lose their jobs there will be blood on the streets.”
PLEASE MAKE IT SO!!! - NZR
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10481275
Central Arkansas. My wife and I are going to look at a place with a small house (1k sq ft) on ~28 acres. I drove by it the other day, there is a window a/c unit, so I assume it either doesn’t have central h/a or perhaps the unit is non operational or something, I’ll find out more info when we look at it.
Anyway, the house otherwise looks likes it was maintained on the outside. It might be decent.
So, I looked into the sales history and the property was purchased in October for 120k. They now have it on the market for 180k. It’s owned in the name of a construction company, I think it must be a small company (probably one guy). I’m curious if he is selling it b/c he is strapped for cash or something. I figure we’ll offer (if we are interested after seeing inside the house) maybe 115.
If the house is worth $30K and the land is worth $2K/acre, why would you be offering more than about $85K? Not your problem if the 10/06 buyer paid too much. If he’s strapped for cash, you’re in charge. Recommend you try to find out if there’s a recorded mortgage and its amount. Nevertheless, what do you have to lose by offering super lowball and letting it sit with the seller for a bit. You didn’t say that it’s the house of your dreams.
The place is relatively near Little Rock, so I would personally, value the land at more than 2k per acre probably. Of course I want to pay as little as possible.
And the buyer bought it in Oct. of this year, not ‘06. Good idea to check on the mortgage…
Went to visit my son in Kennesaw today and decided to have him take me house hunting. There was one subdivision with 600’s low 700’s homes for sale this spring. Even though only 6 homes had been built at the time, the machinery was well at work destroying the mature landscape at a distance. Well we turned the corner while driving, and my mouth dropped. The site now had approximately 20 houses but the entire scene was so sad and so telling. On approximately 10 acres, nothing but faded green piping sticking out of the ground with the land trying to reclaim what belongs to it. The streets were built but the street lights stopped at the finished product. The homes have been reduced by–get this–$10,000/builders closeout. Only about four appeared inhabited. I also received a message via phone call this week from a another subdivision I was trolling one day this past summer. It appears that the previous realtor had left for greener pastures and a new one was on board. He gave me the spiel of how the builder was very motivated and since I had my financing in order (previous realtor must have taken notes), the builder wanted to meet personally to access my needs with buying a house in her subdivision. Lowly old me!!!???? I feel so valued. Anyway, close family member who works for Countrywide is still there, but was told they have to take a pay cut. That worries me somewhat. Will check in with my realtor relative to see if they have struck pay dirt this fall.
Many homes for sale are now homes for rent here in Ahwahtukee a suburb of Phoenix AZ. My previous rental is still for rent and I moved out on SEPT 1. Ahhh thats too bad as for a LONG time I didn’t like the REALTY rental company and felt no ALLIANCE with them.
“Zillow is a joke. There is no way they are up to the task of forecasting the price of falling knives.”
The Zestimates are hilarious. In Vegas there are homes on the market for 100k less than their “Zestimates” and still no action. In some homes I’m Keeping track of have had 25k price reductions in less than two months.
Also true in San Luis Obispo and Central Coast CA.
Zillow is past tense on pricing.
~Misstrial
North County San Diego:
Basically, everything is still dead here. Some of the lower-end neighborhoods (which rose through Q3, 2005) are down by over 35%, about early 2003 levels. The higher-end neighborhoods are flat/slightly down (they have been fairly flat since 2004).
Saw a listing in Encinitas for $499K. That’s the first one I’ve seen since about early/mid 2004. It’s a run-down house in a “working class” part of a decent coastal town.
The realtor who helped us with selling some properties this past summer is now working for an attorney.
Looks like the car dealerships are holding less inventory & the sportfishing industry seems to be hurting quite a bit (have been slow most of this year).
Everyone now seems to be aware of prices dropping & there is lots of pessimism. Most people on the street will agree that we are IN a recession.
Seeing price drops in parts of LA (I loosely follow Woodland Hills & West Hills), as well.
NYC - my informal, unscientific tally of nyc craigslist “reduced” listings — big spike of late - after hovering in the 800s most of this year - now have gone up to 1200 plus.
Dutch auction sale… looks like they will have to knock another $30K off the price to get down to the comp price.
17334 RUETTE ABETO, SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127**
Description
Seller will entertain offers from $349-359k.Short sale.Lovely sunset vus to the hills & green space-lovely 4/2.5 w/vus on a peaceful cul-de-sac.Front courtyard,spacious living room,great kitchen,nice patio on green belt!Short walk to westwood club,shopping/restaurants.Poway schools.1 year hoa dues credit to buyer.See supp.
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Reduced: 08/22/07 — $399,000 to $369,000
Price Reduced: 09/17/07 — $369,000 to $350,000
Price Reduced: 10/17/07 — $350,000 to $349,000
On Market: 120 days
Clients who viewed this home also viewed:
17412 CAMINITO BAYA
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Beds/Baths: 4/3 Sq.Ft: 1,578
$375,000
17276 CAMINITO CANASTO
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Beds/Baths: 4/3 Sq.Ft: 1,609
$319,000
14955 AVENIDA VENUSTO #26
SD - Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
Beds/Baths: 4/2 Sq.Ft: 1,248
$319,000
PB those are the best reductions I’ve seen. 319k is music to my ears.
Still a way to go, but absolutely pointed in the right direction!
I’m guessing here, but my guess is that these homes would have all sold for well north of $500,000 in 2005. 40 percent off on San Diego homes, anyone?
Where is my checkbook?
Report from southern New Mexico:
Not much moving here as far as RE is concerned, some homes for sale are going for rentals. Others are waiting thinking that, “this area is different”. Went to see a house last weekend. Decided not to make an offer after viewing the location: on the edge of a major flood channel that is not reinforced.
ATTN: Californians - MANY cars or cars towing trailers with Florida license plates heading WEST on the 10 fwy (towards CA & AZ). FL realtors/mortgage brokers/appraisers fleeing the law? Don’t know, but sure seems suspicious.
~Misstrial
More on what is happening in the Los Angeles economy:
LA TImes
In Hollywood, the fade to black begins
http://tinyurl.com/3awjxl
“Although the studios are banking that they can hold out for at least six months, the long-term effect could be enormous not only for the entertainment industry but also for the region. Hollywood’s stream of products contributes nearly 7% — an estimated $30 billion annually — to L.A. County’s $442-billion economy, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. If the strike continues into next year, which seems possible now, it will result in the loss of $1 billion to the local economy, the development group estimates.”
My hood is lousy with writers, writer-producers, and show runner types. Not to mention some of the better-paid crafts people and so on.
Now that the talks have stalled, I’m expecting to see some changes locally after the first of the year. I’m also starting to move my portfolio to cash.
I forgot about the writers strike. I guess that explains the episode of Hanna Montana I saw at McDonalds. What happened? Did the studios call in second and third-stringers?
“It was a very bad product,” said Erickson about some of the liberal loans available during the housing boom of a couple of years ago.
“When the grocery store has bad meat with E. coli do we blame the grocery store? We’re offering product that is available,” Erickson added.
We blame the grocery store if they KNEW the meat was tainted and sold it anyway, don’t we? We sure do. And they deserve that blame, squared.
Today’s Officers Of Loan (TOOL)
“Two officers with the Washington Association of Mortgage Brokers defended their roles at an Olympian editorial board meeting Wednesday and said their industry was largely not to blame for the nation’s subprime mortgage crisis. Incoming president David Erickson singled out the surge in creative mortgage products as fueling problems with subprime loans.”
Silicon valley:
I looked at an open house in Saratoga CA yesterday. 2500 sqft on 10k lot. Good layout but not updated. Cupertino schools (good). But, 4 houses over from high-voltage lines. Asking 1.55m. This place had come up for sale about 3 weeks ago, went pending, then came back. The buyer got cold feet according to the realtor. There were two other families looking.
Also, another place in Saratoga, 2k ft, asking 1.4, some upgrades in the 80s. It sold about 3 weeks ago for 1.5m. Less than in the summer, it would have been 1.55 or 1.6.
another anecdote, traffic is as bad as it has been since 2000. And there’s been many road and transit improvements since then; added lanes, synced lights, new light rail line, etc. So a lot of people are going somewhere at 7:30 am, and back at 7 pm.
one other thing, I have been tracking inventory in a certain range in Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Gatos, Palo Alto, Saratoga, Los Altos. It peaked around 65 early summer, then fell to 45 in August, then back up to 65, now down to 45 again. Unfortunate for me as I would like to trade up, but at least inventory in my San Jose nhood has followed the same pattern.