December 10, 2007

They’re Stacking Up Like Cordwood In Florida

The Orlando Sentinel reports from Florida. “The moderately upscale MetroWest residential development is a microcosm of the Central Florida market in many ways. But the real-estate glut and slump are more severe there, according to local Realtors. ‘The condo and town-house market is very, very quiet,’ said veteran Realtor Tony Marino in Orlando. ‘A lot of the listings and prices are back to 2004 levels, but [there are] not a lot of takers. They’re stacking up like cordwood.’”

“More than 500 homes and condos are listed in the MetroWest area in the Realtor’s MLS — within a 1-square-mile area. ‘That’s a lot,’ said broker Jon Shehan.”

The Herald Tribune. “In a national monthly survey of real estate agents, Bank of America Securities summed up November as ‘another quiet month with few buyers swayed by lower prices.’”

“Sarasota, the 45th largest market in the country, was included in the real estate survey released this month. Bank of America found that traffic ‘well below’” agents’ expectations.”

“‘Buyer traffic deteriorated in November,’ the survey concluded. The ‘traffic index fell to 19.6 from 23.5 in October, well below agents’ expectations. A reading of 50 would suggest buyer traffic in line with agents’ expectations.”

“Sarasota’s price index fell to 9.1 in November from 11.8 in October, pointing to sequentially lower home prices. Again, readings below 50 point to lower prices during the past 30 days.”

“Eighty-two percent of agents said prices were lower and 18 percent said they were unchanged.”

“Rod Underdahl of Horizon Realty agrees that prices have gone down. ‘They have dropped quite a bit,’ he said. ‘In several subdivisions where homes were selling for about $500,000 not so long ago they are now being offered at $350,000 to $375,000, which makes me think we must be nearing the bottom since there comes a point where sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they owe on the home.’”

“Lynn Robbins, director of business development for Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, also pointed out that home sellers at year end face stiff competition from new home builders that often unload excess inventory at fire sale prices. ‘You see some sweetheart deals in developer inventory at year end,’ she said.”

“Realtor Linda Higgins tends to disagree with the survey. ‘The bottom is here because so many customers would rather take their homes off the market than go lower,’ she said.”

“Nationally, agents noted price declines in every market that was surveyed, Bank of America reported. ‘What was interesting is that few agents noted any positive buyer response to the lower prices, primarily as buyers remained concerned about buying before the bottom,’ the survey said.”

“‘Agents noted that the increased spreads on jumbo mortgages as a result of tighter credit availability is hurting sales at the high end and more conservative appraisals are dampening overall volume,’ the report said.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Chris Delzio, a securities broker in New York, moved to Palm Bay, Fla., in 2003 and bought two town houses, each for $75,000. Within two years, he had sold both for double what he paid and plowed the profits into land to build five new homes. Compared to staring at a securities-trading screen, he says, ‘It was fun, driving around, looking at the properties. You’re out, talking, negotiating.’”

“Then, buyers stopped coming. Mr. Delzio listed one home, on which he spent $203,000, at $210,000. He then cut the price repeatedly, finally to $175,000. He now rents it for $800 morents it for $800 month, well short of the $1,400 monthly carrying cost.”

The Christian Science Monitor. “Leigh Strand…the founder of Grill it Yourself Inc., had a booming business a year ago helping Florida homeowners create outdoor kitchens and a barbecue lifestyle to match. Now, her shop is as quiet as the hundreds of nearby homes that stand empty with ‘for sale’ signs planted out front.”

“There are customers – including some who have laid out big plans – but hardly any are moving ahead with a major purchase. Recently, ‘I had the choice between paying my mortgage or paying my employees,’ Mrs. Strand says. ‘I paid my employees…. I’m not giving up. I’m not going down.’”

“Welcome to Cape Coral, where residents are banking on a combination of grit and the lure of local amenities to see them through a housing recession that’s as bad as any in the US. During four boom years,…much of the momentum came from speculators, who banked on a continued surge. Now, that trend has reversed.”

“For homeowners, falling land values can affect everyday spending. Brent Legere, a pizza house worker in Cape Coral, bought a $207,000 home last year. Currently, he figures it’s worth much less than that, and a year from now he will see his adjustable mortgage payment reset.” “‘I was going to do some upgrades,’ he says, as he waits for customers. But now he’s hoarding all the cash he can. ‘I might need it.’”

“Those who bought properties as investments are feeling the pinch as well. Scott St. Blanc, who came to Fort Myers five years ago, gets income as landlord for three homes he owns here. In the current market, he’s had to lower the fees for some tenants. ‘To keep them, I had to drop the rent to $1,200 from $1,400,’ he says.”

“In construction, the next year may see less than 1,000 new homes built, down from 8,500 a couple of years ago. ‘The economic engine for a long time was building new homes,’ says Mike Quaintance, president of the local Chamber of Commerce. “That’s a significant revenue stream that is gone.”

“It’s a real estate storm that made landfall like a slow-moving Gulf Coast hurricane here in south Florida and in other once-booming housing markets last year. In recent months it has gathered momentum and spread, shaping up to become perhaps the worst home-price slump since the 1920s and ’30s.”

“‘We are in the aftermath of the biggest housing boom in history,’ says Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist. ‘We are in a period of exceptional uncertainty about the value of our homes.’”

“It is that issue – how far home prices rose – that sets this bust apart from other US housing downturns in the past century. This is more than a typical cycle where the pace of home building plummets. And this goes well beyond a crisis of subprime borrowers.”

“In Florida, many of the buyers who got burned were investors who expected to buy and then quickly resell homes in a rising market. ‘There’s a lot of people that stuck their neck out,’ says Richard Ray, a longtime resident who works at a marina in Cape Coral, with a rate of foreclosures in process – 5.4 percent of all mortgages – that leads the nation.”

“Many people who never intended to ride a real estate wave are also at risk. ‘You see all these empty houses now,’ says Ann Bala, a Cape Coral resident who is losing her home. An injury sidelined her from work, and then she was squeezed between a rising mortgage rate and a falling home value. ‘It’s not even worth $100,000 anymore,’ she says.”

“‘My phone has been ringing off the hook,’ says Steve Jones, who counsels people at risk of foreclosure in the area.”

From Barrons. “When real estate markets sour, owners of luxury homes and condos sometimes cling to a comforting theory, at least in the slump’s early stages: Their properties are pretty much immune to a downturn. Alas, reality and theory don’t always coincide.”

“Consider Sarasota, Fla., a small city in which property values are king and which was one of the hottest of the hot spots in the U.S. real-estate bubble.”

“Home prices jumped 150% from 2000 through 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. But now prices are in something approaching a free-fall. The current readings say they’re down 19% since the end of 2005 and 10% in the past year. Lots of residents who had considered selling their homes during the craziest of the craziness, but didn’t, are wringing their hands.”

“Perhaps the market’s hottest sector during the boom was luxury properties. ‘We were always under priced, compared to Naples and Palm Beach,’ says Michael Saunders, a woman considered one of the doyennes of Southwest Florida real-estate brokers. ‘Then, in ‘04 and ‘05, we outdid ourselves catching up.’”

“But where are all those buyers now? In an attempt to flush them out, SKY Sotheby’s, a luxury real-estate firm associated with the famous art- auction house, decided to capitalize on its heritage. It tried a ’starter auction’ in May, with mixed results.”

“The auction is already the stuff of legend. The place buzzed with anticipation, and there was plenty of food…and a live band, although the selection of ‘There’s Gonna Be a Heartache Tonight’ might have been a little unwise.”

“Of the 79 properties on the sales list, 18 were offered ‘absolute,’ meaning that the seller hadn’t set a reserve price and supposedly would accept any bid. But the median sales price these attracted was less than half of the original asking price. Ouch.”

“Thirty-seven properties were sold ’subject to owner confirmation,’ meaning they didn’t receive bids above their reserve price, and thus maybe sold or maybe didn’t, depending on whether the seller would accept the low-ball bid.”

“What didn’t do well was the mundane. It was a bad day for your typical $2 million Spanish Med. The auctioneers seemed to put the good stuff first, and when the run-of-the-mill came on, well, the crowd was getting tired. The woman sitting next to me was keeping tally — as were many others — and after a while, her DNS (did not sell) list got longer and longer.”

“One person who analyzed the reported sales concluded that, for the properties sold ‘absolute,’ the median sales prices was just 45% of the original asking price, and that 35 properties didn’t even get an acceptable opening bid and so remained unsold at the auction.”

“And, of course, some competing real-estate agents, as steeped in schadenfreude as they are in mortgage rates, quickly came up with a catty saying: If you want to sell your home, call a broker; if you want to give it away, call SKY Sotheby’s.”

“Drawing-broad conclusions about what one auction in one market says about the U.S. luxury-home market is dangerous. But the Sarasota sale certainly said something about the once-torrid Florida luxury-home market…and similar markets around the country. And what it said wasn’t reassuring for those with high-priced property to sell.”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

164 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-10 06:52:49

‘Nationally, agents noted price declines in every market that was surveyed, Bank of America reported. ‘What was interesting is that few agents noted any positive buyer response to the lower prices, primarily as buyers remained concerned about buying before the bottom,’ the survey said.’

The BOA report is the most complete, consistant and objective RE report in the US, for those that don’t know.

Comment by Devildog
2007-12-10 06:55:27

“…few agents noted any positive buyer response to the lower prices…”

Could it be that prices are still too high?

Comment by In Colorado
2007-12-10 08:39:47

Don’t believe in miracles, rely on them.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:10:50

No, no - that cannot be! After all, “prices no longer matter,” “it is different here,” and “real estate only goes up - buy now or be priced out forever!”

I love how many of these goofballs think that after 5 to 10 years of housing prices doubling to tripling in price, a mere 10% reduction will fix the problem. NOPE! Factor in declining real wages and rampant real inflation, and there’s a real problem with the notion that the housing market will just dip a bit and then resume its upward rocket.

 
 
Comment by technovelist
2007-12-10 07:01:08

““It’s a real estate storm that made landfall like a slow-moving Gulf Coast hurricane here in south Florida and in other once-booming housing markets last year.”

As we’ve noted here before, it’s like a neutron hurricane. The houses will still be there but the lenders will be gone.

Comment by Blacque Jacques Shellacque
2007-12-10 09:19:15

The thing about a slow-moving hurricane is that it can be seen coming long before it arrives.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-10 08:52:48

Psych 101 rules of real estate engagement in a post-bubble-partum eCONomy are always the same…

Heat of the Bubble: Intense interest

Post-Bubble-Partum: A void talking about it

Comment by DinOR
2007-12-10 10:22:54

Yeah, we had that “Post-Margin Depression” in the early 2000’s as well! Exactly, and when NO ONE is talking about RE as an “investment” it might be time to buy. Can’t speak for FL but in OR a cord of wood (seasoned, split, stacked and delivered) goes for about 200 bucks.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-12-10 09:01:07

“…few agents noted any positive buyer response to the lower prices…”

I have been looking in the Tampa Bay area and have found that prices have dropped, but still remain high in comparision to local wages. Add in taxes and insurance and most of what I have looked at remains overpriced.

Comment by nunya
2007-12-10 10:14:59

agreed. it’s like a “20% off sale!!!!! (off full retail/list price)” - boring. i can hear that if i want at a car dealership any day of the week. i’ll stay on the sidelines for a bit, popcorn is mighty tasty.

 
 
Comment by eileen
2007-12-10 09:59:50

Metro west has a shooting, rape, or some sort of crime almost weekly - no one around here wants to live there - check the forums for crime and orlando or crime and metro west - it is one of the listed areas in orlando to stay away from

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-12-10 06:58:23

this is what is so annoying:

” . . . which makes me think we must be nearing the bottom since there comes a point where sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they owe on the home.’”

You aren’t being paid to think! Get this through your head: buyers DON’T CARE what the seller owes or what he “can” accept or what he “needs.” There is so much inventory that if one loser won’t sell at the market price, there are hundreds of others to look at! How hard is this!!!!

Comment by Key Lime Toast
2007-12-10 07:19:23

“there comes a point where sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they owe on the home.’”

That point is called: “Foreclosure.”

Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 07:27:48

“Home prices jumped 150% from 2000 through 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors. But now prices are in something approaching a free-fall. The current readings say they’re down 19% since the end of 2005 and 10% in the past year.”

These figures show we’ve got a long way to go. My target is 2000 prices or less (to adjust for increased insurance and other expenses). The interesting thing is, I’m seeing 2000 prices on some properties in marginal areas of Tampa Bay, like certain sections of St. Pete, Tampa, West Pasco shoreline and East Pasco hill country, but for example, my area, South Hillsborough, is still hanging on in the 2003- 2004 price range with some 2005 wishing prices.

Comment by Cobradriver
2007-12-10 07:55:51

Palmetto,

Just keep hanging out. The interesting stuff is still a year or two away. Some fun facts from Port Charlotte.

50…Number of condos for sale when searchin P.C. on realtor last year.

500 plus condos…As of 15 minutes ago.

0…Pretty much the number of habitable homes under 100k searching under Port Charlotte 3 years ago.

400…Average of the last few weeks under 100k.

Now the good stuff…
Total sales last 31 days…410 (approx)
Total 100.00 transfers which count as sales…200(approx)
This isn’t exact cause i dont feel like looking up which were inter family transfers in all 200 listings….

So all of Charlotte county sold approx 200 homes,and think this is peak seson for us !!!!

I picked 3 random streets and looked for signs of empty homes. Then i looked the adresses up in the county files. Please don’t think i am on crack…

There are as many homes vacant/REO and NOT listed as there are listed homes. Remeber,these are all older established hoods vs all new stuff…O.K.,I’ll crawl back into my cave now. :)

Chris

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 08:10:22

” Please don’t think i am on crack…”

No way, Chris. I don’t think you’re on crack. Good to see you posting, you and Key Lime seem to have a pretty good handle on Southwest Florida. Looks like Cape Coral is a real mess.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-12-10 08:14:44

50 to 500 condos in a year!

The “slack action” building up with this inventory situation is downright scary.

 
Comment by spike66
2007-12-10 08:27:02

Cobradriver,
as I remember you and your family have been in the RE game for a long time. always look for your posts.

 
Comment by Chip
2007-12-10 21:21:22

I’m with you and Palmy. When prices hit the year 2000 level, I’ll start to drive around and see what’s out there. Couldn’t care less what a sorta-seller owes on the property. Sooner or later it will be offered for a pre-2000 amount, whether by the current FB or the lender. These idiots seem to have forgotten what “comps” means.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:15:41

Wasn’t there a Florida real estate Bubble that popped a few years before the Great Depression? Good thing that can’t happen again because it is totally different this time - oh, wait…

 
 
Comment by Ann
2007-12-10 08:55:50

..prices went up 150%…have come down only 29%…I would say that they have a long, long, long way to go to get to the bottom…

Based on normal appreciation they should have gone up around 3-5% each year(2000-2005 around 15-25%)..

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-12-10 08:58:14

If prices went up 150%, they only need to drop 60% to get back to where they were. If they’ve dropped 29%, we’re halfway there.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:18:53

Another point to consider: wages have not gone up by 3% to 5% a year since 2000. Inflation is also running very high, so housing appreciation since 2000 should probably be lower - maybe 3% at max.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-12-10 09:26:17

These figures show we’ve got a long way to go.

Palmetto: I would agree with you that the figures have a long way to go before homes drop back to being affordable again in the Tampa Bay area. I have been looking on the northwest section of Hillsborough and have found prices mostly at the 2005 levels and 2003-2004 for less than desirable locations. Prices have a long ways to fall before they are back in-line with local incomes. It looks like much of the pricing is still around 5 times local incomes for the medium home.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 09:32:09

That’s what I’m seeing, Fuzzy. The prices are still ridiculous for the most part in Tampa Bay.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-12-10 10:26:12

These asshats can take the 2000 priced parachute offered or ride this baby right into a smoking hole, their choice.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neil
2007-12-10 07:33:25

Sellers just pray it won’t go down anymore.

Relatives of mine are vacationing in Florida right now and have noted how bad the business is. How can we be near the bottom when the speculators are being bled dry and layoffs are coming?

Sales will continue to slow as buyers realize they cannot afford today’s prices (or don’t want what they can buy at today’s prices). Not to mention the credit markets.

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 07:46:07

“Relatives of mine are vacationing in Florida right now and have noted how bad the business is.”

Went to the Wal-Mart Stupor Center yesterday late afternoon/evening, with a buddy. I have only been there once or twice, I can’t stand the place. But my little niece wants Barbie clothes for Christmas and I will suffer indignities for her that I wouldn’t for others, lol! There were shoppers, but it didn’t seem like any more than on any other evening and most of the shoppers appeared to be of the guest-worker persuasion. My buddy noted that almost all of the women appeared to be pregnant and by the looks of things, he was right. Where’s the money going to come from to take care of all that progeny? They won’t be living in the Toll McMansions they’re building close by, that’s for sure.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 08:35:26

Every thing in Central Florida is slow from, malls, to The Outback to pizza places.

It’s entirely possible that Florida will actually lose population in 08 or 09. Typically if high end eating establishments roll off in a slow economy, the low end places pick up, i.e. Pizza. A lot of Pizza Places are slow. One guy told me his customer is gone: the construction worker.

Interestingly, school enrolments began to slow for the 2006/2007 school year. The 2007/2008 report is due out shortly. Some preliminary reports are showing a decline. There is also talk of Florida already being in a recession. It is almost a given that our population will show a growth rate below what its been and it is remotely possible that we will have a neg. pop. growth rate in 07 or 08.

We are no where near bottom and I agree with the above poster. Those who do not want to face the fact that they are upside down in their houses will simply not sell.

It’s going to be interesting to see what a person does who paid $500K for a house that is going for $350K today and likely to drop to 200K or less before this mess is over.

Incidentally: “Realtor Linda Higgins tends to disagree with the survey. ‘The bottom is here because so many customers would rather take their homes off the market than go lower,’ she said.”

Realtors calling bottom again. I don’t get her logic.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by James
2007-12-10 08:43:04

wave hello to that nice friendly recession on the way to the depression you are headed for.

Overbuilding+ failed lending+ government cutbacks + declining population= depression

Same for us Clownifornians

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 08:46:12

“It’s entirely possible that Florida will actually lose population in 08 or 09.”

I don’t think so. As a statement of fact, rather than my own annoyance with the situation, I think Florida is gaining unrecorded population due to guest workers and also recorded population due to their children. Now, this population will not be buying higher end homes, that’s for sure. But my feeling last evening, being in that Wal Mart, was that anglo and african american folks are definitely in the minority around here at the moment. This could be temporary due to the seasonal influx of migrant workers, but I still wonder why there are so many, when much of the farmland was given over to development. Something’s going on here I don’t comprende.

 
Comment by James
2007-12-10 08:54:52

I think the hope is the mexicano’s become good US citizens at some point.

Not sure how its going to work out. That kind of thinking brought down the Roman Empire too.

Anyhow, the population influx probably helps the economy rather than taxes its services as some would propose. Not sure what will happen with the situation; I’m not for amnesty and I’m not real willing to uproot families that have been here for a while.

Its a mess.

What can I do though? I was screaming about global warming, the borders and oil in the 80’s and no one listens.

 
Comment by Ann
2007-12-10 09:01:01

I have to disagree with you on that one Palmetto…many of those guest residents came in for the work that was available in construction…most are like nomads..and move on to someplace else when the work dries up..

I have a friend who owns and rents low end apartments..she said her business was the guest residents..now its getting harder to find renters for her places…

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-12-10 09:28:47

No, the bottom is not here. Sellers’ wishing prices don’t determine the market — actual transactions do. Besides, you haven’t thrown in the towel yet.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:31:55

Palm: The big family thing seems to be happening across the board these days - I don’t get it, but maybe it’s because I just finished raising mine and when looking back, I don’t know how I did it with only 2, 16 years apart. I know I’m in the minority here, but I’ll trade several guestworkers for every smug wannabe and fatcat any day. My personal interactions with the guest workers have always been very good - nice folks that are willing to live in ways we find repugnant and hard workers that are dedicated to their families.

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-12-10 09:34:00

Sounds like Florida is becoming a laid back, warm weathered, low cost of living State.. if this keeps up it might even attract retirees someday.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 09:35:58

“I have a friend who owns and rents low end apartments..she said her business was the guest residents..now its getting harder to find renters for her places…”

I don’t know where your friend is located, but in the Tampa Bay area, the low end apartments that used to rent to the guestworkers are going begging, but that’s because much subsidized housing was built for them and that housing is much, much nicer and includes amenities. A lot of HUD/USDA money made its way here.

 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-12-10 10:19:14

Say what we want about immigrants. They are some hard working sons-a-guns. Wife and I went to have a tire changed at a local hole-in-the-wall Mexican tire shop. Five Mexicans working there and not a single one acted like they never seen a woman before. They kept busy and focused on what they were doing. Now go to any of the big Chain Store tire shops like Big-O, Carrol’s tire Warehouse, Pep Boys or Tire Order House where mostly white boys work and they just have to work their way around to check out the wife. Or it takes 3 or four of them to come to the register when women are sitting in the waiting room. They stand around in the shop mostly and when the break times comes I don’t care if they only have a minutes work left to finish the job they will stop and take that 15 minutes. I’m a white as snow but I have also been around quite a few years. My sister and I used to pick cucumbers when we were in high school so I know what field work is like as well. Yes there are the worthless bunch of immigrants too but pound for pound immigrants would work the pants off us Anglos!!!

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-12-10 12:22:34

Exactly my experience, only in a different blue-collar context.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 12:26:44

The “undocumented guest workers” keep a low profile to avoid drawing attention. If you took your wife to Tijuana, she’d have to wear steel underpants to keep her butt from being pinched.

They keep a low profile to avoid eeemigration. Orlando does not seem to have that many. There are a lot of farms in more rural Florida and Mexican’s do work there and do work I owuld not like to do. I worked on Tabbaco farms as a kid.

I’m for the fence. At anyrate, it is correct. These are not the RE buyers.

I like the post “Sounds like Florida is becoming a laid back, warm weathered, low cost of living State.. if this keeps up it might even attract retirees someday.”

LOL

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-12-10 15:19:16

They keep a low profile to avoid eeemigration.

AKA La Migra.

The NE big cities and environs have been somewhat of a safe haven for them, until the DUI epidemic started. The law looked the other way around here until DUI fatalities dramatically increased due to the illegal immigrant presence.

Not Mssing It, I’ve had the opposite experience to yours:
being leered at by illegal Mexican garden center workers, and getting my car serviced in a professional and timely manner, by people of non-color.

No color? BS I’m white and I’m colorFULL oh yeah

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-12-10 15:21:40

mmm-hmmm

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2007-12-10 08:45:25

There were shoppers, but it didn’t seem like any more than on any other evening and most of the shoppers appeared to be of the guest-worker persuasion.

We have two stupor centers in Loveland. The older one, which is more centrally located resembles your description above. The newer one, which is on the more affluent north side of town, has a very different feel. For one thing, its cleaner and the clientele is definitely a few notched up the economic ladder as well. Even the employees seem better scrubbed than at the old store.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:25:47

Did you get the usual walmart concert - screaming children running around with abandon? My question is why go to the store at all when you can order on line with bigger selection and no hassle. You can even have to gift wrapped and delivered to little niece if she is out of town.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2007-12-10 12:21:45

Did you get the usual walmart concert - screaming children running around with abandon?

Not as bad as the store near the barrio. It really felt more upscale. Weird.

I needed a wireless router, and I needed it ASAP, so I went to the new Wal-Mart. But I agree that I buy online when I can. For one thing, I just don’t have the time to waste in stores if I can help it.

 
 
Comment by crisrose
2007-12-10 10:56:10

“My buddy noted that almost all of the women appeared to be pregnant and by the looks of things, he was right.”

Are you sure they weren’t just fat? You were in Walmart!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tcm_guy
2007-12-10 21:15:07

LOL!

I gave up buying any clothes at WallyWorld. One size fits nobody. The dress shirts wrap around me like a parachute.

Today I ordered online some men’s large tall sized long sleave thermal undershirts. Nobody within a 75 mile radius sells in this size. There is a man’s big and tall store 40 miles away but they do not have anything in a large tall, their sizes start at XLT.

We should all count our lucky stars that we now have all kinds of online stores selling different colors, different brands, of anything you want in any size.

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:27:55

Now, now, that one size - tarp-size - fits the New Amerikan - the one who eats 5,000 calories of cheeseburgers a day!

 
 
 
Comment by Ann
2007-12-10 08:57:19

They are right..Florida is a real estate driven economy..imagine how bad it really is right now for residents as well as businesses..

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:30:01

Oh, it could be worse - I’ve so had it with stores that only sell pants that are so wide that they’d look baggy on a 100-year old tree, much less a person of normal dimensions.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-12-10 09:34:56

Sales will continue to slow as buyers realize they cannot afford today’s prices (or don’t want what they can buy at today’s prices).

I would agree with you. I looked at a house over the weekend that was built in 1999. Three bed, 2 bath 2100sqft with pool and it was listed at $369,000. It’s probally worth $240,000. The realtor asked why I did not make an offer and I replied because it is not priced correctly for todays market and I am not going to waste my time negotiating, lets move on to the next house.

 
 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2007-12-10 09:05:28

” . . . which makes me think we must be nearing the bottom since there comes a point where sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they owe on the home.’”

They only have two choices, hang on to the asset that is declining in value or walk away via foreclosure.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:22:29

The good realtor sizes up their customer and does a little research - you show them homes they will be interested in at the price they are willing to pay. I’ve dealt with some really professional realtors and they don’t flap their jaws and give opinions, they keep it simple - find out what the buyer wants and sell it to them.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-10 10:10:10

are they crazy …..And that is the role that a real estate sales person should play ,just bring customers to homes that are within their affordable price range . Realtors shouldn’t make future predictions like “Real estate always goes up “,or ,” It’s a good time to buy”,or assure borrowers that they can just refinance out of their toxic loan in 2 years ,or assure borrowers that it is the bottom of the market .

 
 
 
Comment by Renterinaz
2007-12-10 07:08:17

Bottom? This ain’t no bottom. Wait there are many months of pain for these people. The concept of total and absolute price drop isn’t even in their vocabulary yet, but it will be. Panic has not set in either, once that shows up then the fun begins as the folks that are truly in bad shape take whatever they can get, and that is if they paid cash. If they owe then the lenders, (whoever they are) will feel the pain. 2009 is the real reset of the higher rated mortgages and that is another wave of this huge tsunami. Going to be interesting to see who is left standing. Renting then will be risky as owners will not tell you they are going under. I intend to keep renting and stashing money for the next three years anyway. Maybe longer. It gives me a chance to move when and if necessary and if I want to stay negotiation is always a plus for me.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 08:37:36

Agreed. Keep renting.Smart!

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-12-10 07:15:47

he median sales prices was just 45% of the original asking price, and that 35 properties didn’t even get an acceptable opening bid and so remained unsold at the auction.”

so for FL we have SFH at 55% off peak = WOW

Comment by snake charmer
2007-12-10 07:45:59

One of these days I am going to attend an auction just for my own amusement, provided that the event is open to the public and I don’t need to be holding a cashier’s check to get in. The Sarasota auction sounds like dark comedy — I am imagining all the pretentiousness that I normally associate with the upper crust in that town. And this was last May!

The reporter’s comment about the mundane not selling well strikes a chord, because in Florida the bubble turned the mundane into “luxury.” What conclusion can there be other than that houses will sell when the prices return to mundane levels?

Comment by Incredulous
2007-12-10 09:39:17

I liked this:

“We were always under priced, compared to Naples and Palm Beach,” says Michael Saunders, a woman considered one of the doyennes of Southwest Florida real-estate brokers. “Then, in ‘04 and ‘05, we outdid ourselves catching up.”

What a twit. Sarasota ISN’T Naples or Palm Beach; it remember when it was a ghost town, and nobody in his right mind wanted to move there (except for circus people). How could a shiveled up apple be underpriced compared to a couple of juicy oranges?

Whatever happened to “location, location location?” White trawsh clowns pretending to be real estate royals put up junk condos and townhouses anywhere they could find bits of land, even behind garbage dumps or gas stations in hick towns in the middle of nowhere, and asked prices one might expect for well-made bubble-inflated value houses in the most beautiful and expensive neighborhoods in the world.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-12-10 09:40:43

Please excuse the typos.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-12-10 10:34:34

nice rant though!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Cobradriver
2007-12-10 08:04:40

flatffplan,

Want to see something cool…Here is a listing from recent sales from Charlotte County…

Date Book/Page Sales Codes Selling Price
5 /1979 605/1217 IMPROVED $18,000
3 /1993 1272/471 IMPROVED $100
9 /1997 1560/1090 IMPROVED $25,000
3 /2003 2192/841 IMPROVED $35,300
6 /2006 3002/164 IMPROVED $135,000
9 /2007 3209/1529 IMPROVED $100
11/2007 3236/309 IMPROVED $42,900

FYI…This house was purchased by a “investor ” out of Miami.
It is a old school 1/1,low roof line,no garage house.

It is honestly worth about 15-18k with the needed repairs(I looked at it)…Florida is so FOOOKED it ain’t funny

Chris

P.S…I can literally find hundreds of listings like this…

Comment by flatffplan
2007-12-10 08:22:32

my old man sold his house 40% off peak in FT Myers
on a canal, primo spot………….

 
 
Comment by NovaWatcher
2007-12-10 08:12:03

Not necessarily off peak, but off of the asking price. The asking prices might have been strategically inflated and above the peak selling prices.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 08:40:27

I still think 45% of list is to high.

But, yea 55% off peak. Ain’t it great?

Didn’t Lereah own some of those? No, wait he sold them to Yun!!

Seriously, how would you like to be Lereah and walk through a book store and see those two books he wrote?

BBWWWWHHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

 
 
Comment by Robert
2007-12-10 07:32:32

I live in parkland FL right now (renting)was wondering if anyone new of an auctions? Or excellents steals on homes right now? Please send a url where i can find more info on auctions in my area. TY in advance. Trying to find a person that is realistic in there pricing in this area is pretty tuff. Looking for a nice home 5 to 600k.

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 08:43:04

Robert, a lot of auctions are ending with the banks buying the properties back. Although there are some good deals. Surf the WEB, you’ll find auctions.

Another startegy is to go to a realtor you know with access to the MLS and see what houses have been listed longest and make stuoid offers. That works for me.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 08:48:16

google Hudson and Marshall, they conduct auctions in Florida on occasion.

 
Comment by Ann
2007-12-10 09:06:29

Robert ex realtor from the area and I can tell you there are some good deals there..I know of one community… however it is in Coral Springs that has a foreclosure right now..it is in a gated community..the bank has lowered the price 2X no bites and that style home sold in end of 06 for $770(5 bedroom, 3 1/2 bath, with pool built around 2000 community is around Eagle Trace)..bank is asking $561K you could probably get an even better deal on it..Let me know..

Or did you want to stay in Parkland??

 
 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by Blue Skye
2007-12-10 08:48:54

Reads like this guy needs more red meat in his diet.

I don’t agree that it is the banks that made this nation great. It is as much as saying that the people are parasites on the banks.

It is not news that debt is slavery.

 
Comment by James
2007-12-10 08:49:54

I think this is a red herring. The FN that buy this crap are just putting the US dollars that went abroad back in to the system. As it flows back in there will be inflationary effects. Stagflation for most of us. So, they are getting something from their investment but it will turn out to be worth less than they supose it will.

The blaster points both dirrections (economically) as mayor Hardin would say.

They can’t do much that is against our interests or their own as ultimatley they depend on us too. Particularly Saud.

Comment by txchick57
2007-12-10 09:01:12

Well, someone made the salient point that these buy ins are all convertible debt which puts them ahead of common shareholders in the liquidation scheme. At real bottoms, the buyers buy the common stock.

Comment by James
2007-12-10 09:29:44

That is true but its still not a particularly great investment. The investment is still in a foreign country and can get blasted by the government.

I’m just saying that its a bigger risk for the buyer. I’d also say that we already are the worlds leading exporter so that we already depend of sales overseas. We are already intertwined with those guys in the funny hats.

So, I stick with red herring for the article. That alond with the illegal immegrant “problem”.

Just a question? How many people have problems with illegals on a week to week basis?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by not a gator
2007-12-10 11:17:29

None. But I do have problems with drunk, PTSD vets. Good job, VA. Way to take care of our soldiers and sailors.

Something like a quarter of the homeless in NYC are vets. Probably more than that in Gainesville, what with a really famous regional VA (& personal observation).

A country that does not take care of its own is headed for a fall.

 
 
 
 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-12-10 09:17:41

Of course the US should protect it’s banking industry and, i assume, every other part of the country..
The debate is over how to best do it, which this columnist did not address.

Comment by James
2007-12-10 09:31:15

Deflate the debt away.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2007-12-10 10:09:01

Why the hell do we need to get the $$$ from Dubai etc. ?? Where is the European community ?? We protect their F$@%ing ass….I say pull ALL our military out of every country including our missels…Let them fend for themselves for awhile…Maybe there would be a little better appreciation for the protection we provide to some….

Comment by not a gator
2007-12-10 11:21:14

Because they’re already holding the bag on our “friendly” CDO turd sandwiches … and now they’re announcing massive write-downs and going on austerity budgets.

Let’s face it, our friends are broke and, given their delicate situation between Asia and the Muslim world, are pretty nervous about going too deeply into hock.

We’ve got oceans on either side, friendly neighbors above, weak neighbors below. Let the Chinese and Saudis try to come and get a piece of us …

Comment by spacecoastFLRenter
2007-12-11 05:40:12

they already have….their economic soldiers are behind our lines.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-10 07:38:34

“Brent Legere, a pizza house worker in Cape Coral, bought a $207,000 home last year.”

Do people make that much money slinging pizza?

Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-12-10 07:47:10

Working a double-shift 6 days/week may earn you enough to pay the 1% teaser on a neg-am no-doc loan to get you on the dreamer’s ‘property ladder’.

 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-12-10 07:52:18

Let’s see, $12/hour slinging pizzas and doing deliveries 95 hours a week would earn you enough to make the 1% neg-am no-doc loan and insurance and taxes for a grand total of $2,000/month at 55% of income. Yeah, I could see that, maybe you divide that work up between a pizza slinger and a 3-day/week nail technician and you could weazel your way into a $600,000 house for 2 years. Sure, why not. Makes sense to me. LOL

 
Comment by Thor
2007-12-10 07:56:52

Yes - but you have to remember to factor in the tips. :)

 
Comment by Sobay
2007-12-10 08:00:30

‘Do people make that much money slinging pizza?’

- This jumped out at me as well. He would need to gross about $69k to make that work.
I also figure that if you go in at zero down the actual cash that you would need for a fully amortized purchase would need to be added it to the adjustment somewhere down the line.
Falling pizza sales is leading inciicator of forclosure.

 
Comment by Cobradriver
2007-12-10 08:17:14

Palmetto,

This,in my opinion,is why prices got so freaking outta hand !!!

Chris

Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 08:45:20

Cobra, htis is exactly why prices got so freaking outta hand !!!

 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-12-10 08:53:29

To reason to add “in my opinion” to that statement above.

You are 100% correct, and there is less and less “opinion” about this at all anymore. You give people the ability to buy homes at 10X their income and the “demand” for 500K homes will go through the roof. You return to normal lending standards, and the demand for 500K homes falls off a cliff!

The median income in FL is about 50K per HH. So, at 10X income, about 1/2 of FL could “afford” a 500K home.

Return to tradtional lending standards (no more then 3X income), and you start to see the gravity of this problem. 175K HH income is what you really need to even consider “affording” a 500K home. That 175K puts you in the top 2-3% of all FL households.

You just took your demand for 500K homes from 50% of the population, to, AT MOST, 5%. That’s the true size of this problem, massive oversupply, with the pool of buyers shrunk by at least 10X.

Comment by Renter
2007-12-10 10:51:31

There is the problem of the two income households. That is the big unknown that is going to work against falling house prices. I know a lot of married couples who have over 100,000 in household income. I wonder if the median income numbers are right. (47,000)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-12-10 11:52:36

Then you have to factor in when they have kids and that second income basically disappears. Of course 20something ‘go getting’ neo-yuppies don’t realize any of this. Recipe for divorce. Better be able to live on, and agree to live on, basically one salary.

 
Comment by DarthRealtor
2007-12-10 12:37:28

The median income is Household median and it is approx 50K in Florida. It’s a littl higher down South and a little lower in the rurals, but 50K is a good number and says 50% of the homes should be at or below 150K or so.

Your pizza guy who’s wife is a telemarketer is in that range.

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-12-10 18:22:51

Incorrect. In Florida, that median $50K figure includes 2-earner households (or more).

6 figure DINKS are rarer here, although they may be common in some neighborhoods in South Florida … those neighborhoods are not representative however.

There’s a reason this state is so shabby.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Ostriches
2007-12-10 10:04:28

The owners probably do when they’re charging $25.00 for a pizza and wings. Hasn’t anyone else noticed this- pizza joint owners cruising around in Escalades and such? Well, at least in Buffalo it wasn’t too bad because they make good pizza there, but here in DC it is just absurd- Asians of various types (Indians, Middle Easterners, etc., who seem to own all the pizza joints) simply do not know how to make good pizza. And, when did pizza making become so lucrative?

Comment by Anonymous Coward
2007-12-10 11:31:20

Sounds like you need to open a pizza joint.

Comment by not a gator
2007-12-10 18:25:04

I knew this one guy in town who made a great pizza (but sucked at marketing). He had his ass handed to him when mozzarella prices rose this summer.

Bye-bye tasty pizza.

A lot of good places have gone under, leaving only the shit pizza purveyors. Moi, I do not buy ze pizza any longer. If I eat it, I probably made it myself.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Skip
2007-12-10 14:35:05

From my days in the Pizza biz, it normally has a 300% markup ( hence all of the buy 1 get on 1 free type coupons ).

 
 
Comment by jhkues
2007-12-11 10:59:07

You don’t want to know about the Hess Gass station attendant who bought my house for 390 using 100% loans. He is still there after 1 year, so I guess that is good.

 
 
Comment by Les Pendens
2007-12-10 07:44:26

“There are customers – including some who have laid out big plans – but hardly any are moving ahead with a major purchase. Recently, ‘I had the choice between paying my mortgage or paying my employees,’ Mrs. Strand says. ‘I paid my employees…. I’m not giving up. I’m not going down.’”

_____________________________________________________________

I have news for this lady. She is already “going down”.

I’ll also bet that she’s burdened to some sort of wacky mortgage to go with her financial situation.

My late grandfather ( who retired very well off ) used to tell me: “Never run a business from your wallet”.

..

Comment by Thor
2007-12-10 08:06:57

She’s not going to be burdened to that mortgage for long. She’s already missing payments to pay her employees. The writing’s on the wall; she needs some good business/financial advice on her situation to salvage whatever she possibly can.

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:38:55

Or my personal favorite - it’s nothing more than a wish until it’s cash in your hand. Big plans mean nothing in any business.

 
Comment by Ostriches
2007-12-10 10:07:12

What was that saying…Oh, yeah, “Sh*t in one hand, wish in the other…”

 
 
Comment by simplesimon
2007-12-10 07:47:38

MBIA going down? trading halted? anyone got anything.

Comment by Tom
2007-12-10 07:49:43

They are in trouble. Wouldn’t shock me if they announced some liquidity infusion from the middle east.

Comment by txchick57
2007-12-10 08:11:46

Raising $1B of additional capital.

Comment by scdave
2007-12-10 09:54:57

Chick…Did you see that B of A shut down a 12 bil. MM Fund…Accepting no further contributions and halting redemptions…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by FairEconomist
2007-12-10 08:09:11

Speculation is they’re going to get a capital infusion http://www.cnbc.com/id/22182658
Seems there are knife catchers in high finance. The exception would be foreign central banks like China and Saudi Arabia who might be happy to blow a few billion to prop up the system.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-10 07:52:18

“They’re stacking up like cordwood.”

Corpus Derelicti

 
Comment by Rich
2007-12-10 07:59:39

“Thirty-seven properties were sold ’subject to owner confirmation,’ meaning they didn’t receive bids above their reserve price, and thus maybe sold or maybe didn’t, depending on whether the seller would accept the low-ball bid.”

This just STINKS of shills, instead of playing “There’s gonna be a Heartbreak Tonight” they should play Alice in Chains “Down in a Hole”.

 
Comment by dimedropped (Orlando)
2007-12-10 08:04:25

“Pay my employess or pay my mortgage….paid employess….I am not going down”…..

I’ll take that bet!

Comment by BP
2007-12-10 09:22:53

I agree with that. Outdoor kitchens in Florida? I grew up in SFL and BBQ was done in the shade during half time of the game on tv. Who the he!! wants to cook outside in 95 degree weather with 99% humidity? “HGTV + Heloc money = stupid house add ons”

 
 
Comment by FairEconomist
2007-12-10 08:06:06

Rod Underdahl of Horizon Realty agrees that prices have gone down. ‘They have dropped quite a bit,’ he said. ‘In several subdivisions where homes were selling for about $500,000 not so long ago they are now being offered at $350,000 to $375,000, which makes me think we must be nearing the bottom since there comes a point where sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they owe on the home.’

I see a learning opportunity for Mr. Underdahl!

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-12-10 08:29:53

It is getting to the point where the NAR might have to issue a gag order to its members if they ever expect to survive this.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-12-10 08:57:42

That would be like a national holiday for me (if a gag order was issued for NAR members). Just having them shut up for 10 minutes is a sweet relief, if they all stopped shilling for weeks/months… Well.. I might think about buying a house!

:)

 
Comment by cocoa beach
2007-12-10 11:09:23

That only works if NAR gags themselves. Remember the $30 million campaign from early this year, “It’s a great time to buy “or sell” a home.” Guess what, they’ve assessed the membership another $30 each for 2008 for a, presumably, equally preposterous campaign. Stay tuned. I’m an embarrassed member and I’m appalled at the horrendous behavior exhibited by our association. Is there any other organization anywhere with less credibility?

 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-12-10 08:35:01

“sellers can’t afford to take offers below what they now”

I see sellers who are going to get a learning opportunity too. The Christmas season may be masking what’s happening, but a chill is in the air. Even the announcement of the teaser freeze with the prez and paulson on tv, both looking spooked, has added to the sense of general unease.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-10 08:10:39

“Realtor Linda Higgins tends to disagree with the survey. ‘The bottom is here because so many customers would rather take their homes off the market than go lower,’ she said.”

Ostrich bottom economy

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-12-10 08:33:08

Yes, and live happily ever after in those houses, because that was their plan all along - NOT!

 
Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:44:47

Yeah Linda - like they have a choice - either they can try to sell it or with a little time, the bank will be doing the selling. Sometimes you can slow down the foreclosure process if you at least can show you have the house on the market.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-10 09:49:06

Funny ,the bottom will be determined by the sellers that must sell , not by the sellers that have the option to not sell . Inventory will still be very high ,even if a certain % take their overpriced POS off the market .

These people have such a long wait for prices to return to 2005 peak prices .

Also, I’m predicting a .50 % Fed rate decrease along with a lot of bad news exposed . The MSM loves to expose the bad news when the market is going up and they cheer-lead good reports when the market encounters any down pattern . When you mix the good with the bad it produces a wash .

 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-12-10 08:13:31

National Association of Realtors just came out with their numbers. Of course, they are pure fantasy. This organization is so steeped in deceit, I’m passed the laughing stage. State governments where the property boom has collapsed, need to bring criminal charges against the NAR for deception. Realtorwhores themselves, need to distance themselves from the NAR because their “repuations” have been damaged enough during this debacle without the NAR making it worse.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-12-10 08:21:40

“Realtor Linda Higgins tends to disagree with the survey. ‘The bottom is here because so many customers would rather take their homes off the market than go lower,’ she said.”

And I would rather eat steak than ramen noodles. Once the ramen noodles become too rich for my blood to pay the mortgage and eat, I must take less for my home.

Is this woman serious? You can’t call bottom because people owe more than homes are worth. Foreclosures in my neighborhood sell for 20% less than what is owed. Had one the other day list and sell the same day for $175K. That’s a full $125K less than the FB paid for it in 2005. The house was listed before foreclosure at $299K, $279K, $249K…off the market…$175K. I guess the $249K was the bottom wasn’t it?

Comment by BP
2007-12-10 09:28:47

Bad Andy,
I was checking my old neighborhood in Wellington and still see prices about $200,000 out of wack. Not too many sales though. I guess they are going to hang on “untill it comes back”?

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-12-10 11:30:06

“I guess they are going to hang on…”

Depends on the location. I just witnessed a home that sold in ‘03 for $265K for $400K in ‘05 sell for $219K in Wellington. This is pre-bubble 1999 or 2000 pricing.

That said, most houses aren’t selling at all. That’s because buyers have come to expect huge discounts and no one is willing to move forward without them. A rotted piece of trim found during inspection is getting $10K knocked off contract prices. It’s almost like payback time for the buyers.

 
 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-12-10 08:39:24

McDonald’s sales up over 8% based on their dollar menu.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071210/mcdonald_s_sales.html

Comment by In Colorado
2007-12-10 08:50:12

Not surprising. The other day we rooting out stuff to give to places like Habitat and Goodwill. It ran late and we hadn’t cooked anything for dinner. For some reason we agreed that I would run out to Mickey D’s to get some burgers (haven’t done this in a long time). When I wentr through the drive through I was shocked at how expensive Quarter Pounders and Big Macs had become (about $3.50). I’m not surprised that people are buying the $1.00 double cheeseburgers (heck, a Big Mac is a double cheeseburger with an extra slice of bread).

Comment by Ann
2007-12-10 09:12:47

That is why I refuse to eat fast food..it is expensive..people think it is so cheap for a family to eat there..

I rather take my coupons in the mail for the local food operator and get my well balanced meal for the same price as the junk…(buy one meal get the other free..)

 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2007-12-11 10:40:06

Well, it seems people can only afford to shop at Wal-Mart and eat at McDonalds. I am sure that’s a great sign for the future - not! Maybe they if they just changed the Dow to be nothing but Wal-mart, McD’s, and some dollar stores we’d be in great shape and “everything only goes up!”

 
 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2007-12-10 08:45:20

” If you want to sell your home, call a broker; if you want to give it away, call SKY Sotheby’s”

i Think I hate everything about realtors!

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-12-10 09:07:24

As if brokers are actually selling any homes in Florida. Listing does not equal selling!

Comment by kpom
2007-12-10 09:16:19

If you want your home to languish on the market forever, call a broker; if you actually want to sell it, call SKY Sotheby’s

 
 
 
Comment by hotairballoonguy
2007-12-10 09:03:19

From the S.F. Chronicle

http://tinyurl.com/3d6oof

“This logic is like saying shoppers seeking bargain-priced soup encourage the grocery store owner to steal it. I mean, we’re talking about criminal fraud here. We are on the cusp of a mammoth financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are trying to limit the liability of their banking friends under the guise of trying to help borrowers. At stake is nothing short of the continued existence of the U.S. banking system.”

hotairballoonguy
lake geneva, wi

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-10 09:12:41

Pimped up Circumstance

“But where are all those buyers now? In an attempt to flush them out, SKY Sotheby’s, a luxury real-estate firm associated with the famous art- auction house, decided to capitalize on its heritage. It tried a ’starter auction’ in May, with mixed results.”

“The auction is already the stuff of legend. The place buzzed with anticipation, and there was plenty of food…and a live band, although the selection of ‘There’s Gonna Be a Heartache Tonight’ might have been a little unwise.”

 
Comment by Blacque Jacques Shellacque
2007-12-10 09:17:41

“The condo and town-house market is very, very quiet,” said veteran Realtor Tony Marino in Orlando. “A lot of the listings and prices are back to 2004 levels, but [there are] not a lot of takers. They’re stacking up like cordwood.”

2004? That’s all?

The levels will have go a lot further back before y’all get any takers.

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-12-10 09:23:34

could happen at much lower prices
The Realtors’ group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month’s prediction of 5.69 million.

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-12-10 09:37:16

Is that Barron’s article available free anywhere?

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-12-10 09:38:09

Multiple-choice test:

Who ya gonna believe

a) Realtors&Reg;

b)Common wisdom

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071210/housing_forecast_realtors.html

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-10 09:39:49

CNBC just did a piece on a homeowner that bought 3 homes in California with no money down and the homeowner is upset because she might only qualify for the teaser freezer on one of the homes she lives in

..Apparently the borrower went to a 10% interest rate from a 7k payment a month on the three homes to a 10k payment a month on the homes . Apparently the homeowner thought she would only go up 2 % on the interest and she expected real estate to go up so she could refinance .
What surprised me is the CNBC host made a remark about how this homeowner didn’t have any skin in the game ,so what is she really losing ? Apparently the MSM is getting it that these borrowers are not really victims but were speculators . I wish they would of asked this homeowner how she qualified for buying 3 homes at high prices without any down payments on any of the homes ….(fraud loan applications )

Maybe the news media is getting it that most borrowers aren’t victims . The homeowner that they put in this piece on CNBC did not gender any sympathy at all ,and you could see the greedy objective the owner had ,and it was clear to me that she must of submitted liar loans .For this lady to even get bailed out on one loan makes me mad ,but you know, its a bail out for the banks really . I predict this homeowner will default on the other two properties she thought she would make a bundle on .

Comment by are they crazy
2007-12-10 09:50:45

I’m taking bets on whether she claimed all 3 homes as primary residence to get lower rates. I want to know why there wasn’t a companion program to go with the teaser freezer - frauds. A nice hotline where people like this could be reported. It’s a felony to be giving false info on a mortgage application. Or you could simply do the old which is a lie - the mortgage application or the tax return.

 
Comment by scdave
2007-12-10 10:01:39

Yeah…I saw that also Wizard….It made me sick…That woman had no business buying one house much less three…She said she thought the rate would go up a “Little Bit”….Can’t believe you would give one ounce of assistance to this lady….

 
 
Comment by Mike
2007-12-10 09:49:57

Just watched a story on the CNBC Business Comedy Channel about a woman (foreign accent from some toilet south of the border I think) who bought 3 houses between 2005-2006 with sub-prime in California. She uses 2 of the houses as a home for seniors. Of course, she put almost no money down on these 3 houses. Now the crappoloa has hit the fan. She’s waaaaay under water on all 3 properties and has resorted to borrowing money off the people who have their parents in 2 of the homes, to stay afloat. Of course, she didn’t know the sub-prime mortgages she signed up for would reset. Funny how’s she smart enough (cunning enough) to buy 3 houses and start a business but didn’t understand about the resets. You can guarantee she knew but she figures the property prices “Would-Only-Go-Up.” As a side issue, she MUST have put down fraudulent information and had been aided and abetted in her fraud by a mortgage broker and a realtor. All three should be charged with fraud. Don’t hold your breath.

She actually said, “This government plan is perfect for me because I bought my houses between 2005 and 2006 so I should qualify for the bail out.” It gets worse, the reporter of the Comedy Business Channel said, “Well, under the plan she can only get help for one of the homes. The one she is living in.” Are you fu*kin’ kiddin” me?! She deserves to go to jail - not get rewarded!

WELCOME TO AMERICA! Get off a boat from some south american toilet, sign on the dotted line for 3 houses without spending a penny for deposits, rent them out as senior homes at $800 a month per. person, borrow of your clients parents to stay afloat, then wait long enough for the US government via the tax payer to bail you out. Jeeez!

Btw, at the moment this is “supposed” to be a plan which does NOT involve tax payer dollars according to Godfather Henry Paulson (who is doing this for his pals on Wall Street - not for the FB’s). Underline the words: At the moment. As this financial tsunami gets worse, be prepared as tax-payers to take the top off the vaseline jar and bend over as the likes of Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer and Dodd, force through a tax payer bail out if they get elected. I happen to be a democrat but I can see a lot of bad stuff happening (for tax payers and savers) if the dems get elected and because of the mess Bush and Mr. Magoo have made - they are 90% certain to win. I don’t think I’m going to bother to vote.

Comment by Anonymous Coward
2007-12-10 11:51:30

As a fellow Democrat, I share your concerns, Mike. I don’t think any of the candidates get why this is happening and how badly needs to correct. Anything we do to interfere with that just piles more shit on top of the shitpile, no matter how noble their intentions. Where we needed good Dem-style regulation was in keeping a closer eye on our Fed and in preventing deregulation of banking. It’s too late for that now, and we need to let all this excess liquidity get wrung out of the system. Funny how China is trying hard to learn from our mistakes, even as we refuse to see the writing on the wall. China is actively trying to restrain credit expansion so that they will have less to mop up later.

 
Comment by kirisdad
2007-12-10 21:18:01

Nooo Mike!! you’re really a democrat? I never would have guessed.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2007-12-10 09:52:43

CNBC is reporting that BofA just froze a $12 billion money market fund!

Comment by Tom
2007-12-10 10:20:30

And who said money markets are safe!

 
 
Comment by Jeff in Florida
2007-12-10 09:56:39

Looking for a little advice…

FINALLY talked my significant other into (trying to) sell our home and rent for the next couple of years. Wish me luck! We don’t need to sell (fixed 6% for 30 years) but this is going to end really ugly.

We bought in 2005 for $224K, currently owe $185. Peak was in 2006 for $269K. KB is still building (and appear to be selling SOME — not many). Thier base price for my sq footage is $237K. My builder was actually Maronda though.

I thought I would try listing for $235K. Was going to do FSBO with MLS listing.

I am in the Jacksonville Fl area, Yulee Fl (20 miles north of Jax). According to Fortune, the 5 year projected loss is 24% from June 2007.

I know it’s kind of late in the game.. we should have sold last year.
I just think this thing is going to get worse before it gets better and I really don’t want to be stuck in this house forever (eventually would like to get out of Jacksonville once I find a suitable job back up north). I’ve been keeping track of the sales records in my development and there were ALOT of 100% finance deals through KB/Countryfried last year. There are already 2 REO’s and 2 Lis Pendens on my street alone.

Any suggestions? Should I try to get out while I still have some equity left?

Comment by az_owner
2007-12-10 10:34:27

Let me be the first to say - thanks for the chuckle!

Comment by Jeff in Florida
2007-12-10 10:47:18

Don’t quite understand what the chuckle is about.
If you read my post you would see I am not a FB, I did not get in over my head, and I am not desperate to sell.
The $235k is below the wishing price of comparable homes. If I need to go a little lower I will but I was looking for advice not arrogance.
One REO is $224k, the other is $246k

Comment by az_owner
2007-12-10 11:58:33

Sorry guy - I guess the idea that you could still expect to make a profit on a Florida house purchased in 2005 seemed funny to me. Since you’re not an FB and you seem flexible, go ahead and add your house to the bountiful Florida real estate listings, and see what happens. Consider the expected 5 year loss of 24% (under $60k in your case) against the cost of rent for an equivalent place - more than $1000 a month? If you can hold off for a year or two, you may aviod some of the carnage of the current market.

Good luck, and don’t be suprised to see those REOs repriced at 80%. 70%, and then 60% when the banks decide to get serious.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by DC in LBV
2007-12-10 13:21:37

You better look at what Maronda is selling it for now. Here in Polk County, they have started agressively cutting prices this year. Around here, you can buy Maronda homes with 2,700~3,600 sq. ft. for $200k~$220k, which are $50k~$80k less than a couple years ago. Jax has been trailing central Florida in timing, and I would expect them to start doing the same thing there. Maronda is currently selling their 2,800 sq. ft. home in Jax for $220k, and I would not be surprised if they started cutting prices 5~10k every other month to spur demand (that seems to be the pattern here). If you are wanting to sell, you need to match, or beat, their current prices.
http://www.maronda.com/CGI-BIN/LANSAWEB?WEBEVENT+L0E9EEC9038D889004C8305B+PRD+ENG

http://www.maronda.com/CGI-BIN/LANSAWEB?WEBEVENT+L0E9EEC9038D889004C8305B+PRD+ENG

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Jeff in Florida
2007-12-10 10:51:31

Don’t quite understand what the chuckle is about.
If you read my post you would see I am not a FB, I did not get in over my head, and I am not desperate to sell.
The $235k is below the wishing price of comparable homes. If I need to go a little lower I will but I was looking for advice not arrogance.

Comment by James
2007-12-10 12:29:16

We are laughing that you think you still have equity left.

I realize this isn’t funny for you but a lot of us have been waiting on the sidelines since 03 watching spending being rewarded while work & savings were dismissed.

You have to look at sold properties not just listing prices to get a better idea on sales points. Fortunatly you aren’t in California or costal Florida in a jumbo market.

I looked at your area and its probably tough to get a sale. You are in the middle of a large open area. Hard to establish a value as high as 250K.

I saw a few sales here and there. You are competing with that REO and getting near the end of the year. So the bank might dump it. That and additional supply means you will be undercut a bit. If you do the FSBO its a tough slog to move a property.

As credit tightens a price like that is real supportable in that area. Basically its a country property. You have to fight for the people with the downpayment and the income to go after it. The 20% down is a monster at 50K. Finding people with 25K is a tough job.

Anything outstanding about the house?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Jeff in Florida
2007-12-10 12:56:39

Here is the House:
Timbercreek Plantation
Maronda Bayberry Model
2852 Sq Ft
Full Stucco over Concrete Block
4 Bedroom
2 ½ Bath
Master Bath with Garden Tub, Separate Shower
Dual Walk-In Closets in Master
2 Car Garage with Opener
Formal Living Room
Formal Dining Room
Family Room
Center Island Kitchen with Maple Cabinets
2 Sinks, and 2 Pantries in Kitchen
Smooth Top Stove and Built in Microwave
Laundry Room with Cabinet Storage
Washer and Dryer Included
Neutral Paint Throughout (Dark Beige)
Nock-Down Ceilings
2 Inch Blinds Throughout
All Window Treatments Included
2 Zone Heating and Cooling
Full Alarm System
Huge Screen Porch overlooking Large Fenced Yard
Yard 50 x 162, backs to trees
Full Irrigation System with Separate Meter
Upgraded Landscaping
Gutters and Downspouts around entire house
Community has Amenity Center with Pool, Playground, Sports Fields and Basketball Courts

I’ve also changed out all of the light fixtures. The REO’s have all white paint and cheesy light fixtures (they were rentals from a flipper).
IMHO, the house shows very well. My first 2 houses sold to the first person who walked through (in non-bubble areas - Pennsauken NJ and Orange Park Fl). The thing would be to set the price to get a qualified person through the door.

 
Comment by James
2007-12-10 16:38:15

OK. So you are in one of those communities out there.

Looks like a nice place to live.

From the posts above the market price is set by the new home builders. They are probably building a similar community with similar houses. So, you can look at their sales and determine a price point to undercut them.

Not sure what you will net out of this and I’m sorry to see you burn through your downpayment.

Banks will be getting very skitish and if they don’t like the comps then all the “shows nice” in the world isn’t going to help you. The REO/new homes are your real competition for the buyers BUT everything depends on the ability for people to get financing.

Outlying areas also get creamed first. If you had property attached to that; you would have more of a case for the price. With the market falling like it is now; its going to be a hard sell to the loan officer.

Good luck.

 
 
 
 
Comment by ESSESSEMM
2007-12-10 10:34:53

If you can get $235K more power to you, but that’s more than what you paid in 2005 - not to mention there are bank owned properties on your street with more to come.

I think many people here will tell you that you’ll be chasing your way to the bottom over the next few years unless you lower the price in a big way. You need to let prospective buyers (the few that there are) that you are serious about selling, otherwise most will just pass it by with the hefty price tag.

 
Comment by Mike from Viera
2007-12-10 10:40:46

Go as low as you can. We have been trying to sell our condo at 40% below peak (10% below everyone else currently has listed), but we aren’t seeing my bites. See

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-12-10 10:44:55

I’d take a look at inventory in your zip code - and honestly try to indentify the listings that are most like your own. If your home is in really nice shape and shows well, price it in the lower quartile of that range. If it’s just average - price it in the bottom 10% of that range.

Also - how much will you save by renting?

 
Comment by Earl 288
2007-12-10 11:10:24

Who will buy it?

 
Comment by AdamCO
2007-12-10 12:48:29

I’d price it to get most of what you owe. Maybe you’ll get a bite at $190k. Maybe. I don’t know the market, but pricing above 2005 levels will probably have you chasing the bottom.

Comment by postman
2007-12-10 17:54:11

jacksonville is a tough market to project, but word in south florida is that if the people pass tax break portibility (move your property tax break in florida county to county) the north may get a brief benefit. the problem is incomes dont add up anywhere near the housing prices when traditional loans come into play. this is going to take years. maybe just stay where you are and ride out the storm.

 
 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-12-10 10:19:17

Bank of America freezes money market fund.

Damn, how many people brag about a money market fund and how safe it is?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-10 10:21:31

“Leigh Strand…the founder of Grill it Yourself Inc., had a booming business a year ago helping Florida homeowners create outdoor kitchens and a barbecue lifestyle to match. Now, her shop is as quiet as the hundreds of nearby homes that stand empty with ‘for sale’ signs planted out front.”

“There are customers – including some who have laid out big plans – but hardly any are moving ahead with a major purchase. Recently, ‘I had the choice between paying my mortgage or paying my employees,’ Mrs. Strand says. ‘I paid my employees…. I’m not giving up. I’m not going down.’”

I’d be willing to get in a short-term rotisserie league, in regards to her last Strand…

over/under on her business going under: 45 days

 
Comment by potential buyer
2007-12-10 10:34:27

Sorry if this has already been posted, but check out The SF Chronicle’s article - the real reason is fraud for the interest rate freeze:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/12/09/IN5BTNJ2V.DTL

Comment by sm_landlord
2007-12-10 13:41:50

Great article - recommended.

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-12-10 11:17:42

TEST

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post