The Housing Bubble

A report from the Edmonton Journal in Canada. “Edmonton home prices dropped an average of 6.5 per cent in November from October. Edmonton house prices now are down $50,000 from their May peak of $426,028. The volatile mixed category of duplexes and rowhouses plummeted 15.4 per cent to $311,193. ‘The current market is very price-sensitive,’ Carolyn Pratt, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, said today. ‘If property is not priced right for this market, it may languish in the listings.’”

“Edmonton-area housing starts fell to 1,091 units in November 2007, down 42.1 per cent from November 2006. ‘Builders have been reacting to concerns about the size of new and resale inventories and their impact on prices,’ said Richard Goatcher, senior market analyst at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which released the figures.”

“‘Overall, the Canadian housing sector continues to outperform expectations, and is in stark contrast to its U.S counterpart where the recession in the housing sector continues unabated,’ said TD Securities strategist Millan Mulraine.”

“However, the signs of economic strength and optimism were released as Bank of Canada governor David Dodge was warning that the credit crunch has intensified, adding to the risk posed by the weakening in the U.S. economy, of an economic downturn.”

“‘These tighter credit conditions have come as financial market difficulties have intensified over the past few weeks and as bank-funding costs have increased globally,’ Dodge said. ‘At the same time, there is an increased risk attached to the prospects for demand for Canadian exports because the outlook for the U.S. economy, particularly the U.S. housing sector, has weakened.’”

The Calgary Sun in Canada. “Despite a plunge in housing starts in the region, experts say Calgary’s economic boom is far from over. The federal housing agency, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, reported a 48% drop in housing starts between last month and November, 2006.”

“Total housing construction in Calgary is so far down by 17% this year over last. Last month, 776 homes were started in the Calgary area, down from 1,497 the previous November.”

“Even so, the pace of construction remains hectic, said Deep Shergill, president of the Calgary Region Home Builders Association.”

“‘Most of the builders are still building at or near capacity,’ said Shergill, adding the sector’s labour squeeze continues. ‘There’s just no way we could maintain that kind of pace we’d seen.’”

“Multi-family housing starts in the city dropped a whopping 76% last month compared to November, 2006.”

“Lai Sing Louie, a senior analyst with the CMHC, said some of the overall slowdown is caused by more used listings diverting buyers. ‘There’s still lots of supply in the re-sale market,’ he said.” “In Alberta’s seven largest centres, housing starts in November, 2007, were down 38% from the same month last year.”

The Tri-City Herald from Washington. “Joseph McKenzie and Mary Vines did their homework and found the home they wanted in Pasco. The couple checked out nearly 20 houses before settling on the seventh house they looked at. McKenzie said the couple found what they wanted, and stayed within their budget.”

“Although McKenzie and Vine weren’t worried about housing market troubles, local officials are concerned that bleak national reports are negatively tainting local perceptions of the Tri-City market.”

“And locally, the housing picture looks relatively rosy, officials say. ‘Markets are local. Just because it’s a national trend doesn’t mean it’s going on in your neighborhood,’ said Marchell Mascheck, a Realtor in Richland. ‘We haven’t followed the national trend in many years.’”

“She and other local industry officials say it’s actually a good time to sell a home in the Tri-Cities because the market is balanced between sellers and buyers.”

“‘So many people are sitting on the fence; why wait?’ said said Dana Mundy, owner of AmeriChoice Home Loans in Richland. ‘All the way around our market is very strong.’”

“Even though credit restrictions are tighter after the national meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, Mascheck said it will help potential homeowners be stronger buyers. ‘People are going to be better prepared,’ she said. ‘They’re going to enjoy owning a home much more.’”

“Unlike other regions, the Tri-Cities didn’t experience a housing bubble a few years ago. And the Tri-Cities has never had a glut of homes on the market, builders say. In Boise during the housing boom in 2005, for example, investors could buy a home and sell it for 10 percent to 20 percent more in six months, said Jeff Losey, executive director of the Home Builders Association of Tri-Cities.”

“But when the market slows, as it did earlier this year, those investors are left with houses that won’t even sell for their purchase price.”

“Mundy said she thinks the balanced market could tip in favor of buyers if a large number of foreclosed homes come on the market.”

“Though notice of trustee sales have increased by about 11 percent this year, locals aren’t experiencing the same phenomenon as the rest of the nation. The Benton-Franklin Title Company has reported 739 notice of trustee sales through November of this year, up from 665 in the same time frame in 2006.”

“‘It’s going to hit us here, it’s just not going to slap us around like it has other areas,’ Mundy said.’”

Business Week reports on Washington. “Even the nation’s hottest markets are slowing. In the Pacific Northwest, where many markets have been bucking the national trend, the pace of sales transactions and price appreciation is dropping off.”

“In Wenatchee, real estate agents acknowledge the softening. ‘We’ve had a little bit of a slowdown but nothing compared to what we’re seeing in the rest of the country,’ says Lisa Day, a Realtor in Wenatchee. ‘In my market, prices have gone up and they’ve plateaued. You’re seeing a little bit of a plateau now.’”

The Kitsap Sun from Washington. “Kitsap County had more homes and condos for sale last month than November a year ago and the median sale price dropped $19,000, or 6.69 percent, during the same period, according to Northwest MLS.”

“Inventory is up 25.33 percent from this time last year and pending sales have declined 27.53 percent during the same time period.”

“But real estate professionals are trying to emphasize that the drop in prices shows that real estate trends, including those in Kitsap County, are starting to return to normal for the time of year rather than signaling a problem.”

“‘As expected, Kitsap’s housing market has adjusted to the slow down in job growth, stricter credit requirements, and the traditional slower winter season,’ said Mike Eliason, executive of the Kitsap Association of Realtors. ‘In comparison to real estate markets throughout the nation, however, Kitsap is still relatively strong.’”

“In November 2006, the median sale price of a home was $285,000. That median dropped significantly last month to $265,000. The decline is a positive for those wanting to own homes, because the new median home price is beginning to align with income levels of Kitsap residents.”

The Columbian from Washington. “The Columbian’s business editor, Julia Anderson, in her Dec. 2 column, asked a question about the Clark County real estate market. She put forward the proposition that ‘a psychological standoff continues in Clark County between buyers who think house prices should be dropping on weaker sales and sellers who are convinced their homes are not overvalued.’”

“I agree that the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area housing market has done better than most housing markets in the nation. However, there is no denying that (1) it is a buyers’ market, (2) housing starts and sales are significantly down, and (3) the homes-for-sale inventory is at a record high.”

“There is also no doubt that there may be worse to come. All of the housing indicators point to the fact that the downturn in the housing market is now worse in Clark County than it is on the other side of the river in Oregon. And my question to The Columbian and others is, ‘Why is this so?’”

“The historical fact is that a home in Clark County has always been cheaper to build and sell than on the Oregon side of the river. So what happened? The only answer I can come to is that the Clark County market became so super-heated that the downturn became even more dramatic.”

“People were buying and ‘flipping’ houses to such an extent that some local home builders here required buyers to live in the home for a period of time before they could sell.”

“In the past, it seemed that the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area was the first into a recession and the last out. This time we may be lucky. We may be last in and first out. And that would be refreshing.”

The Oregonian. “University of Oregon economists say that a collection of falling monthly economic indicators suggests that a statewide ‘recession is likely imminent.’”

“Oregon initial unemployment claims rose in October to the highest level since November 2006. Residential building permits issued in the state dropped to the lowest level since September 2000.”

“Economists cautioned that the ‘general rule’ merely signals, but by no means guarantees, that a recession is coming. But their report highlighted October’s negative results, and said: ‘A decline of this breadth and magnitude preceded the 2001 recession and suggests a weak economic environment in the near term.’”

The West Linn Tidings from Oregon. “There’s good news and bad news for the local housing market: 2008 doesn’t look so hot. On the other hand, things should bounce back in 2009.”

“That was the message delivered to builders, real estate professionals and other interested parties at last Thursday’s annual housing forecast put on by the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland.”

“‘You’ve got to talk to your consumers before you start building,’ said David Ludwig, of Vista Market Intelligence, to the builders in the room. It will be ‘another slow year in 2008, possibly down slightly from 2007 levels.’”

“Former U.S. Bancorp economist John Mitchell titled his presentation ‘Momma said there would be times like this – but not very often!’”

“We’ve had it pretty good for a while now, Mitchell reminded the roomful of professionals. For the building industry, he said, the last few years have been ‘the stuff of legends.’”

“Home ownership rates climbed from 1998 to 2006, when they peaked at 69 percent. Prices also peaked in ‘06, when residential permits were strong, financing conditions were good and homes were relatively affordable.”

“‘And then August happened,’ he said. ‘The props were gone.’”

“‘What’s likely to happen? I’m still willing to bet we’re going to make it through without a recession,’ said Mitchell. ‘There’s an inventory problem that has to be worked through, he said, adding, ‘It’s not going to happen instantly. It’s going to take time.’”

The Gazette Times from Oregon. “It’s the best of recent times to be a qualified buyer in the Corvallis housing market. But sellers are waiting a bit longer now than they did a year ago to find that buyer.”

“‘It’s pretty obvious that there are fewer buyers than sellers,’ said Alan Dietch, a local agent. ‘People are reluctant to lower their prices, but there are lots of options for new buyers.’”

“In 2005, there were 949 real estate transactions, compared to 867 in 2006. So far this year, 816 sales have been recorded.”

“The median selling price for Corvallis homes in November was $275,000, down from almost $300,000 last month. A year ago, the Corvallis median selling price was $320,250.”

“‘What we’re seeing is that houses still are selling,’ said Doug Burton, president of the Willamette Association of Realtors. ‘Prices are not appreciating, but they’re not really falling, either.’”

“The number of houses sold in November also dropped. Ownership changed on 41 houses in November of last year compared with 33 this year. That still was an improvement over October. With 30 houses sold, it was the slowest month in total sales this year.”

“New homes accounted for about a fourth of the 33 houses sold in Corvallis in November, and most of them sold for more than $300,000.”

The World Link from Oregon. “Economists appeared to be determined to be upbeat at the Bay Area Chamber of Commerce’s 15th-annual Bay Area Economic Outlook Forum. They overlooked the immediate problems in the Bay Area, and, instead, focused on the future.”

“‘The big picture is, we’ve got the drag from housing, but there’s a lot of other stuff going on,’ said Keynote speaker, former U.S. Bank Economist John Mitchell.”

“Coos County has not experienced the battering from the housing crisis as much as counties have in other states, but Oregon Employment Department Regional Economist Guy Tauer, said that houses for sale in the county have been on the market for an average of 109 days this year as compared to 86 days last year.”

“‘We’ve had slower growth, but it’s not like we’re falling off the cliff in Coos County,’ he said.”

“Mitchell said high rents can be blamed on a change in housing conditions. Prior to recent restrictions on mortgages, just about anybody could purchase a house so people weren’t looking at buying rentals, he said.” “‘If you could fog a mirror, you could get a house,’ Mitchell said.”