An Often Unsung High Note In California
Inside Bay Area reports from California. “In Alameda County, 9,454 homeowners are in some stage of foreclosure this year. Either they have defaulted on their mortgages or received a notice of trustee sale of their home from the bank, according to statistics. Jose Vizcaino was lured by the American dream of owning a home. After 12 years in the Bay Area, he was finally able to buy a house at the beginning of the year when he purchased one in El Sobrante for $502,000.”
“‘It’s like, ‘Wow, this is my first place,’ he said. ‘They say sign here and sign there and you don’t pay attention.’ In retrospect, he wishes he scrutinized the documents.”
“After a short time, Vizcaino’s manageable 8.9 percent interest rate ballooned to 11 percent. He’s now four months behind on payments. ‘I’m close to foreclosure. I don’t see many opportunities’ for getting out of it,’ he said. Homes in his neighborhood that once sold between $700,000 and $800,000 are now selling for $500,000, he noted, as neighbors begin foreclosure proceedings.”
“Vizcaino said he might not have bought his home if he had known it would become so difficult to afford. ‘This is a nightmare,’ he said.”
“Melissa Fulton and her 5-year-old daughter are saddled with some big problems: foreclosure on a $490,000 mortgage on an El Sobrante house and need of a job.”
“‘Unfortunately, I lost my job through all of this,’ Fulton said, describing the year-long negotiations with her lender. ‘I was dealing with Countrywide; they were calling every day and I lost my job because of that, because of those calls.’”
From CBS 5.com. “Solano County has one of the highest foreclosure rates in California. Home values are on the decline. The troubles in the real estate market have a ripple effect on consumers and the pain can really be felt at the Solano County tax collector’s office.”
“That’s where Rosie Santos lined up to fork over $4,000 in property taxes. ‘We had to cut back on everything,’ said Santos. ‘We just cut back on stuff. This Christmas we are picking names and giving adults only one gift.’”
“Her new home has declined in value because homes around her are selling for less. ‘It’s a brand new home we bought in February. It’s almost 2,000 square feet,’ said Sanots. ‘We just hope the value goes up again.’”
“Tax Assessor Marc Tonneson said he granted 900 tax bill reductions which amounts to 90% of those that applied. He says most applications are coming from developments where homes once valued at $500-700,000 are going for more than $100,000 less.”
“Tax Collector Charles Lomeli tries to greet homeowners with a friendly face. He walks the long line of residents who have come to pay their bills in person. Many have personal stories of hardship. ‘The economy is bad. You are seeing foreclosures and people can’t afford to pay,’ said Lomeli.”
The Christian Science Monitor. “The row of homes on St. Salazar Circle marks the furthest advance of Modesto’s housing boom – and the start of its scorched-earth retreat. Brown, unwatered lawns of foreclosed homes compete with the green grass of neighbors still hanging on. Some of the structures, although new, are missing outdoor equipment like air conditioners, taken by metal thieves. One in 4 houses of the neighborhood stands empty.”
“New neighborhoods like the one surrounding St. Salazar Circle, the home-loan crisis has hit the hardest. Built during the height of the housing boom, they have the newest residents who paid the highest prices with the most exotic mortgages. After seeing prices rise 10 to 20 percent each year, they’re now seeing prices slide downward.”
“‘Right now, our dreams are being crushed,’ says Marisol Ramirez, who bought a home on St. Salazar last year for $370,000. Now, it’s priced at $300,000 and the Ramirezes are likely to lose it.”
“Now they are weighing whether to rent around Modesto or just return to Mexico. ‘I stay up at night with the fear that they’ll come and take me out of the house with my children,’ Ms. Ramirez says.”
“Vacant homes surround her: the next-door neighbor, the house at the end of the block, three in a row behind her on St. Charlotte Ave.”
“More than 5,700 homes in Modesto’s Stanislaus County are actively under foreclosure or have already been turned back to the bank, according to RealtyTrac. In Modesto, investors made up roughly a third of buyers in recent years, says John Hillas, a local appraiser.”
“Each day at the stroke of noon, Dean Roots arrives at the courthouse steps to read the 40 or so new homes put on the block. For months now, no more than a half-dozen onlookers have turned out for the ritual. On most days, no one even bids.”
“‘I try not to think about it because a lot of these people have brought it on themselves,’ Ms. Roots says.”
“Back on St. Salazar, Samuel Mendoza checks out a vacant home for sale. His older brother, Daniel, tags along. Daniel’s home is currently under foreclosure, so his family will be moving in with Samuel when he buys.”
“Samuel has many suddenly affordable options – an often unsung high note in the housing crisis.”
“Several homes have already been purchased on nearby San Ramos, a sign that the neighborhood may be starting to stabilize. As Gabriel puts it, sometimes a ‘neighborhood has to convulse, it has to turn over.’”
“Samuel likes the home on St. Salazar, but he’s not about to make a rushed, ill-informed decision. ‘We’re going to learn from my mistakes so he doesn’t go through the same thing,’ says Daniel.”
From Business Week. “Katherine Zupan, who owns My Very Own Room in Merced, used to help residents stage homes—that is, decluttering, cleaning, and preparing properties for quicker sales and higher closing prices.”
“But she no longer feels comfortable taking business from Merced sellers who appear to be calling her out of desperation. ‘It’s hard even for a staged home to stand out from the rest of the homes when new home prices are comparable to resale homes,’ Zupan says.”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “On the same day a real estate trade group reported the housing market is on the verge of stabilizing, experts on California’s economy say the state could see a more dramatic and prolonged downturn than other parts of the country, in part because more recent buyers relied heavily on risky loans here.”
“‘We disproportionately enjoyed much higher home price appreciation over the last several years with the uses of subprime and Alt-A loans,’ said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. ‘This is going to come to haunt us.’”
“Adibi is forecasting a 9 percent decline in average home prices on the statewide level in 2008. And he said an additional 15 to 20 percent drop in 2009 would not be out of the question.”
“In the last steep housing downturn, Adibi said, it took 54 months for San Francisco home prices to fall from peak to trough; in San Jose it was 60 months, and in Oakland it was 51 months. To get back to the previous peak price levels took another 3 years, roughly.”
“The statistics compiled by San Jose real estate firm owner Richard Calhoun seem to show a buyers’ market still tumbling farther. The median asking price for a single-family house in San Mateo County, for instance, has fallen from $948,000 in November 2005 to $767,000 this November.”
“‘There’s no one answer as to when the bottom of the market is reached and what stability is,’ said Christopher Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics. ‘Are we talking price stability, construction stability, sales stability, foreclosures stability? It’s a question of what you’re looking for.’”
“‘These corrections are so long and there are so many different parts to the cycle. The classic case was going into the collapse. Sales started falling in late 2005, prices started falling in the third quarter of 2006, foreclosures are spiking up now, and it will impact consumer spending next year,’ he said.”
The North County Times. “Local median home prices and the sales volume in November dropped from last year, and analysts said they expect North County year-over-year prices to continue falling until late 2008.”
“‘There’s buyers out there, but they’re just not buying. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They’re going to see it drop and then they’ll wait for it to drop some more,’ said Chuck Smiar, a Realtor in Escondido. ‘They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.’”
The County Sun. “Economists agree that the housing market hasn’t hit bottom yet, but how much more will home prices fall? Another 15 percent to 25 percent price drop in 2008 alone isn’t unfathomable, housing analysts say.”
“‘We still have a long ways to go until (the housing market) bottoms out, and it’s going to fall harder in California,’ said David Olson, president of Wholesale Access Mortgage Research and Consulting. ‘Once you get a bunch of foreclosures, then the whole street goes down.’”
“Changes in mortgage rates will mean more foreclosures and as much as a 30-percent price drop in home value in the Inland Empire, he said.”
“In California, more than 78,000 subprime adjustable-rate mortgages worth about $27 billion are scheduled to reset between January 2008 and January 2017, according to LoanPerformance. A majority of those loans will reset between now and December 2008.”
“And there’s almost three times the number of prime adjustable- rate loans in California as there are subprime, which worries economists and bankers. The bulk of these 325,000 loans - worth about $120 billion - will reset between early 2008 and early 2013.”
“‘The peak is here in the fourth quarter of 2007,’ said economist Ryan Ratcliff about subprime mortgage resets. ‘But there’s a whole other peak coming a year from now.’”
“‘You’re not going to get a big bounce back with housing,’ said Edward Leamer, economist with the Anderson Forecast. ‘What we’ve done is increased the value of our land about $5 trillion (nationally). We think we’re wealthier than we really are.’”
The Daily Bulletin. “Regional economist Jack Kyser said the overall job market in the Southland is looking shaky. Kyser said continuing problems in the housing market would have an impact on numerous sectors.”
“‘I don’t think we’re past the worst of the financial market problems at all,’ he said. ‘We’re going to see a lot more foreclosures in 2008, and we still don’t know when the housing market will turn.’”
The Desert Sun. “California consumers are quite pessimistic about the economy and as a result they plan on cutting back spending. Economist Esmael Adibi said the drop in consumer sentiment is ‘the largest quarterly drop in the index’ since it began in the third quarter of 2002.”
“He said that in the fourth quarter of 2006, the spending index stood at 103.5. In this fourth quarter, it plunged to 71.8, down 25 percent from the third quarter. Adibi said any index level below 100 ‘reflects a higher percentage of pessimistic consumers as compared with those who are optimistic.’”
“Adibi…forecast the increase in consumer spending in 2007 was primarily triggered by homeowners cashing out their home equity gains by refinancing their mortgages. With fewer opportunities for refinancing, ‘the resulting negative hit on consumer spending will be considerable,’ he said.”
From CNN Money. “In California’s San Joaquin Valley, Christina Perret said the foundering housing market has caused sales to sag at her three high-end women’s fashion clothing shops and forced her to reconsider her stock. Perret’s gotten rid of racks of flashy tops with plunging necklines that were favorites with real estate agents, substituting a line of conservative sweaters popular with farmers’ wives.”
“‘We’re going after the wives of dairymen and women in agriculture because their economy is so much more stable,’ said Perret. ‘Even moms who come in shopping with their daughters for prom aren’t wanting to spend as much now. They want to buy dresses for $200 max and know their daughters can wear it at graduation next year.’”
“Sal Arroyo, who manages a Western wear store in Fresno, California, said selling $300 ostrich-skin boots is a challenge, since sometimes as few as 10 shoppers come in each hour. ‘Money’s really tight and that’s hard for us,’ Arroyo said.”
‘Right now, our dreams are being crushed,’ says Marisol Ramirez, who bought a home on St. Salazar last year for $370,000. Now, it’s priced at $300,000 and the Ramirezes are likely to lose it.’
‘Now they are weighing whether to rent around Modesto or just return to Mexico. ‘I stay up at night with the fear that they’ll come and take me out of the house with my children,’ Ms. Ramirez says’
Geez, enough with the drama, lady. Do you know what $300k would buy in Mexico? Plus, people like her drove up prices for everyone.
And so what if girls have to make do with ‘only’ a $200 dress and are expected to wear it twice. A lot of people are learning lessons that they can only learn one way, and that’s a good thing. That and the ’suddenly affordable options.’
No kidding. Gimme a break. I’ve never had a 300K house.
“LOL” What about a $200.00 dress?
for $300k in manhattan, you can have a nice den-sized studio apt — with a view of a brick wall!
… in fact, parking spaces in manhattan go for about $300K!
That’s why they’re called dreams, lady.
I grew up in the San Joaquin Valley- a $300k house used to mean it was in the nicest neighborhood in town. This held true even as late as 6 or 7 years ago.
Too right. $300K used to buy a really nice house there in many places. I remember looking at new homes being built in ‘97. The nicest and largest model in one development was $145K.
The part in the article about the clothing store owner who was switching to more conservative items to attract farmer’s wives made me laugh. “Their economy is much more stable.” Oh yes, very stable. Agribusiness can be very hit or miss. Last year’s big freeze comes to mind. That so-called stability is also what kept housing at affordable levels for the area until the recent run up.
. Perret’s gotten rid of racks of flashy tops with plunging necklines that were favorites with real estate agents, substituting a line of conservative sweaters popular with farmers’ wives.”
Those flashy tops and plunging necklines were a way to get male home buyers caught off guard and buy a home quickly.
When I go buy a new car I put on my power bra!
I stuff a tater in my shorts.
You’re supposed to stuff it in the FRONT of your shorts.
boyz/gurlz.
Tater in the front or back, eitherway it will
surely distract and that power bra too
..lol
You’re supposed to stuff it in the FRONT of your shorts.
like him?
Front? Why?
I had a feeling that I was doing something wrong all of these years. I guess tater tots weren’t the way to go, right,… guys?
Phillygal..JUST like ‘him’.
sighhhhh
heck he probably doesn’t prefer ‘our’ type.
That was before you could imagine going $500,000 in debt without being able (or inclined) to read.
In early 2002 I was looking at a VERY nice house — 14000′ corner lot, beautiful park-like backyard, custom home, one block off of THE prestige street (Van Ness Ext if you must know) . . . $300,000.
Sold again for $600k at the peak of the boom in 2006.
Two months ago I took my wife and daughter shopping at the big Westfield Mall in SJ. They were looking for a dress for a friends wedding (color was to be black). The expensive shops didn’t have anything worth buying. On the way home we stopped at the outlet stores in Gilroy and they got both dresses for a total of $98 and were a hit at the wedding. My daughter is going on a 10 day cruise at the end of the week and will be wearing her dress again. Life is good for the discriminating shopper.
I cheer you on with that one..my daughter went shopping with a friend who bought loads of stuff at the mall, of course at the way overpriced store..my daughter said hey lets head over to the TJMaxx across the street..her friends scoffed(teenagers)…
Well my daughter walked in and saw “Juicy Couture” (for those that don’t know major designer clothes for teens) shirts and the much “adorned” track suit…she walked out with a shirt for $19.99 and a complete track suit for $50….friend was shocked..
Daughter informed me that friend had bought similar track suit at mall for $175 and shirt for $59.
I gave my daughter a hug and told her proudly, “You shop like your mom!” She smiled…loving her bargain..and the rest of Grandma’s gift money still in her pocketbook..
My teenage stepdaughter was bummed when I mentioned that Juicy Couture was owned by Liz Claiborne. Totally not cool.
LOL you’d be surprised at who is owned by whom. What really pissed me off was when Nike bought Cole Haan.
Nike, eh? I live a couple miles from where the Heaven’s Gate cult died, all wearing Nikes because they thought the swoosh looked like a comet. FYI, the Howard Johnson’s right off Leucadia Blvd and I-5 is where two of the members committed suicide. Not something they like to advertise, to be sure…
“What really pissed me off was when Nike bought Cole Haan.”
That was along time ago.
I know a few CH’ers still with the company, who are working in NYC and along the Eastern Seaboard.
In talking with them a couple years ago, they were still finding it very hard to admit that headquarters was in the Tron! (Beaverton, OR)
As well, I truly enjoy reminding Volvo owners that they are driving a Ford.
pretty soon , jaguar could be owned by Tata (indian automotive giant) and all jaguar owners will be pissed?
Tata is also preparing to market a cheap car under 10K very soon in USA
Volvo is NOT FORD! OK Technically, the company is owned by Ford, but Ford management keeps it’s nose out of Volvo’s designs and manufacturing!
Unlike the GM and SAAB relationship, which produced a car that is in the shop more than it’s on the street.
Proud ex-owner (I live in Tokyo now, just walk, subway,train,taxi) of a Volvo S60 and S70, two of the best cars I’ve ever owned. And will gladly buy one, if, when I move back to the states. Used to own a Ford Escort, cheap-o mitsubishi and assorted very old/used Chrysler’s when I was a teenager.
You might be unpleasantly surprised.
Word from inside the industry is that Ford is doing to Volvo what it has done to Mazda in the last decade — cut corners with cheaper, lower quality parts.
Same old story - when corporate America has a powerful brand, they proceed to run it into the ground for short-term profit - “It’s a powerful brand, we can make cheap crap and they’ll still buy it at premium prices” (vid. Dell Computer). The executives get a few years of fat profits and fat bonuses before the customers catch on and the company’s reputation is trashed, by which time they’ve moved on.
China thanks you.
I visited the Great Mall today — haven’t been there in years. I was amazed at how much designer stuff they have for being an outlet. I did not buy that Prada handbag for $500 — but I still may……………:-) My treat for not becoming a FB!
“I visited the Great Mall today”
The Great Mall of China?
With China having over a trillion USDs it just might happen.
I skip all the “discount” malls, and head right down to Tijuana. All the Prada and GUCCI bags for $20, got myself a nice TAG watch too.
I never understood the allure of buying real luxury goods when you can get a knock off that does the same thing and no one is the wiser.
I really debate just what is a ‘knock-off’ and what isn’t. It’s all made in China anyway. What’s more likely the case is that they just make extra and sell it any way they can. What makes it ‘knock-off’ is that it’s not ‘officially imported’, and then marked up 4000%
The quality just ain’t there. Whether the extra quality is worth the extra price is the real debate. People cannot deny the knockoffs are of seriously lower quality.
Black for a wedding?! Is this Freudian or simply a really ill-advised attempt to be unique? Jeeze.
What kind of flowers? Is everyone gonna bring a gun? If I ever have a wedding I will include that on the invitations: ‘Bring your prettiest gun’. I will myself, of course. Life’s big events should always have guns handy, or else they risk becoming boring.
How about a tux made out of kevlar?
As long as it’s pretty, you betcha.
It sometimes pays to wear protection on one’s wedding night.
Wedding in Nov. husbands grown child. Was told to wear B or other fall colors BUT brown as that was the bride+grooms mothers colors. And LONG.
After photos came back, it appeared as if I were an italian widow at a funeral. Even the strands of pearls (borrowed) didn’t take away from that funeral feel. Now if I could have gotten a dress, that funeral feel would have disappeared with legs showing.
WHile shopping for this wedding attire, I thought the prices were way way to high. Online also.
Was told to wear B or other fall colors BUT brown as that was the bride+grooms mothers colors. And LONG.
This is really outrageous.
You’re the second person I’ve heard tell of being directed what color attire to wear at a wedding…excuse me?
I’m showing up, taking x hours out of my day to honor you with my presence, I’m bringing a quality gift, and now you want to tell me what to wear?
Get a clue, people:
your dopey weddings are not all that important. What are we supposed to do, wear a special dictated color to celebrate an event that most likely will end in divorce anyway?
IMO this is worse than being invited to a wedding in Maui or Pago Pago and pay for your own airfare. People want to play rich, but they don’t want to pay rich. Sure, I’ll show up at your exotic locale wedding when you charter a private plane for your guests.
Weddings certainly are a massive waste of money. A much better use of the money would be to save up for a large down payment to buy a house in a few years, before the couple have kids and after the bubble is mostly unwound. Heck, for the price of weddings these days, you might be able to buy the house outright if it’s modest.
IMO this is worse than being invited to a wedding in Maui or Pago Pago and pay for your own airfare.
What’s wrong with politely declining? I do that for EVERY wedding invitation I receive.
Rang up my mom (in 1970) and told her we were getting married in three weeks at the courthouse, hoped the parents would come, no lavish wasteful festivities please. Hence, the money to finance other people’s houses. albeit mostly trailers.
The very best weddings I’ve attended were:
-in backyards
-in parks
-in cheap “Vegas-style” chapels
SO much more fun & laid-back, and the bride/groom actually get to talk to their guests and have a good time.
Never understood throwing tens of thousands of dollars away on a party that lasts just a few hours.
‘Bring your prettiest gun’
H-K P7M8, hardchrome
Noticed this phenomena at a wedding in August, in South Georgia! It was sweltering, somewhere in the mid-90’s and all of the under 25’s were wearing black. I suppose they’re all watching the same television show or something. They looked ridiculous.
‘Now they are weighing whether to rent around Modesto or just return to Mexico. ‘I stay up at night with the fear that they’ll come and take me out of the house with my children,’ Ms. Ramirez says’
Nothing would be finer to see the north end of this woman as she is southbound, with a Joshua tree in her hindquarters and the anchor babies under her arms.
You just gave me a dose of the warm-and-fuzzies. Comforting thought indeed!
Indeed. Was that a threat or a promise? Can we vote on it?
The way she’s caterwauling, you’d think her house was being surrounded by Injuns. Boo hoo.
ROFLMAO, Palmetto!
I just love this blog!!
Geez, enough with the drama, lady. Do you know what $300k would buy in Mexico? Plus, people like her drove up prices for everyone.
Can you say, “illegal immigrant”?
Sweet, huh? She’s got more options than US citizens. “Hmm, let’s see, we screwed the pooch on the house, so now should we rent or live large in Mexico?” Maybe Americans need to demonstrate in the streets for the same “rights” and options.
I’m sure you could live quite well in Mexico.
…except for illegal immigration being a felony in Mexico.
Lol, no kidding, Matt. It oughta be a felony here, too.
Ben,
This credit crash is going to go way beyond effecting housing.
The only people getting through this without significant damage are wealthy liquid people.
Banks will fail. All buisnesses will contract. Government will cut benifits. Retires will be thrown on the state with failed pensions.
We could see painful long term deflation. Those who overspent will probably suffer slightly more than the rest of us. Slightly.
The derivatives mess, MBS mess, Fed mess…
Its almost unstoppable now.
Thanks James, you give me new hope that my thrift and hard work will pay big dividends. Full disclosure, I’m wealthy and liquid.
If all businesses fail, what good will your cash do? Stock up on ammo and food if things get as bad as you say they will.
That would be worse than the Great D. My grandfather stayed liquid, then made plenty of money in coal in the 30’s. Not ALL businesses failed.
“Geez, enough with the drama, lady. Do you know what $300k would buy in Mexico?”
Interesting that you say Mexico. Why not Michigan? Ohio? or the Midwest? Or is it because many seem to think that ‘Ramirez’ is not ‘American’. Is ‘Jones’ any more ‘American’? I’m getting a bit fed up with the racial undertones here.
TGP,
You really are an idiot. Read the post, fool.
Testify. Sheesh, unbelievable.
Mr T moment -Too funny.
Get ‘em tiger!
I know you don’t like this, pinch…
Smile for the camera, Ben…
Love that song!
Love you too…Ben
On that happy note, I’ll make out my small check for Donation Week.
“LOL” Ben, I’ve been noticing you’re getting a little cantankerous the past few weeks. Maybe we should find a stand in for you for a few days. You’ve been working pretty hard. With that being said that was a most excellent response…”LOL”
True, MIS! After reading here since Q2, 2005, Ben is finally coming out & getting a little spunky. I like it!
The odd irony is that we have tons of people from here buying $300K houses in Mexico now.
Not meaning to sound Crazy, but what?
“The odd irony is that we have tons of people from here buying $300K houses in Mexico now.”
Help me out here, is this a new trend? Seriously - help.
Thanks,
Leigh
From the articlein the Christian Science Monitor:
“Now they are weighing whether to rent around Modesto or just return to Mexico.”
Seems pretty clear to me.
Hi T’palis,
Er…correct me if I’m wrong…
The Rameriz (sp?) family is thinking of returning to Mexico?
Flame away, perhaps I misunderstood.
Leigh
Or is it because many seem to think that ‘Ramirez’ is not ‘American’.
Real Americans wouldn’t be considering a “return to Mexico”. (her words, not ours)
Note to self: Learn when to shut the pie…
Er…
“Is ‘Jones’ any more ‘American’? I’m getting a bit fed up with the racial undertones here.”
Not my house…not your house either.
For the sake of PC (ahem), may I offer unsolicited advice?
Conflicting opinions often lead to open dialog, and greater understanding…and more dialog~
$200.00 dollar dress…my, my, is it spun with gold embellishments!
Yeah, forgetaboutit. Dress is much more dramatic than losing the house - OMG!
My wedding dress cost $37.00. (We eloped in 1981!) That was expensive! And, I payed for it myself, as I had more monies than my then poor hubby. Best man was also a photographer in USAF, so that too was on the cheap. WOW - time warp.
$300k in Mexico would probably buy a small town. Problem is there are no idiot banks, to my knowledge, that would loan them that kind of money in Mexico.
Oh Ben, you’ve made this year an interesting one!
Thank you for all your hard work. But most of all, thanks for the screams of cackles, inny popping out belly button laughter…and that includes the HBB posters!
$200.00 dress - my heavens!
Ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Leigh
P.S. Donation done, baby!
The most expensive dress I ever bought was my wedding gown and veil: total $98. They were bought in a used clothing store, and were beautiful. Nowadays I shop for bargains at outlets, etc. I get great stuff for very little money.
I hear you Ben!
DON’T FORECLOSE ME BRO!
–
“‘We’re going after the wives of dairymen and women in agriculture because their economy is so much more stable,’ said Perret.”
Payback for the milkmen?
Jas
A small dairy farm (60 cows) anywhere in the US this year made upwards of $300K net. Some of the dairy herds in that area are over 1800 cows employing 80+ individuals, milking 3X daily, net profits of $7MM. Last year Net profits of 1.2MM.
Much of the price increase (100% over the last 12 months) is the result of China and India buying anything available.
Dairy exports are up over 150%. If you cannot afford the food prices here, some other country stuck with US dollars will buy what we produce and they will pay up for it.
The new Half and Half…2% milkfat and lead!
Thats exactly right any exporter should do well the next few years.
A friend of a friend is a dairy farmer in Norway.
He makes a nice living off of just 9 cows because of massive agricultural subsidies.
It must be those super dairies along the I-5 corridor. I bet the dairymen say : I love the smell of methane in the morning. LoL
Sir Hoz,
Me thinks we are friends, of friends. Purina?
Leigh
As a resident of Berkeley, CA I can only hope that prices keep falling. The fact that a house next store to a crack house is still $350,000 says that the market still has a long way to fall. That said, I’ll keep saving my pennies and hopefully get something good. yeah, I’m one of those buyers sitting on the fence. I rent now and I’m just watching and waiting.
Yup, Berkeley isn’t showing many signs of stress at the moment. A few foreclosures, a few failed (but not horribly failed) flips. I think Berkeley/Alameda/NorthOak is going to be on roughly the same schedule of downturn as Silicon Valley. It’s going to come, but it’s going to take longer then many other places in the greater BA.
Oh yeah? Foreclosures up 85%.
I took a friend to see a foreclosure in Berkeley a couple of weeks ago. In a terrible location next to a tire shop. It had sold for $570k in the summer of ‘06 and was on sale for $350k. Looked like a failed flip. What stunned me is that a GF was willing to pay over half a million for this pos last year.
85% off a low base, I am guessing?
I’m wondering about the true state of all that downtown Oakland condo action (Just built, under construction, and proposed).
I see many turning into rentals.
I live near two low-income neighborhoods in Sacramento. Two years ago the cheapest houses in these neighborhoods were $250K. Now the cheapest are $100K. Huge numbers of bank-owned houses throughout. It is happening very quickly - but the prices are still very sticky in the nice neighborhoods. It looks like it will take another year or two for capitulation to occur.
““The row of homes on St. Salazar Circle marks the furthest advance of Modesto’s housing boom – and the start of its scorched-earth retreat.”
According to catholic-forum.com, St. Sabas Reyes Salazar is a patron saint of martyrs.
“Now they are weighing whether to rent around Modesto or just return to Mexico. ‘I stay up at night with the fear that they’ll come and take me out of the house with my children,’ Ms. Ramirez says.”
St. Salazar was from Guadalajara, and worked in Guadalupe. Might consider following his lead.
I say don’t let the border hit ‘ya, where the good Lord split ‘ya…
‘I say don’t let the border hit ‘ya,’
- Stop It! I almost spit out my Little Debbie cake laughing!
I am awaiting the day when the Calif post mentions only Spainsh named victims in the threads. Todays post only had about 68% - but one day Ben will make it happen.
“but one day Ben will make it happen”
He has very little to do with it, since it depends on who’s playing the victim at the time of the stories he’s posting. We have a local fishwrap that publishes a police blotter. One week, it seems like all the perps are from Mexico or Central America. The next week, it’s all white trash with the occasional african american mixed in for good measure. For a while there, the illegals had a really good run, week after week. Then, not to be outdone, the white trash made a big comeback and have been holding on to the police blotter title for a while now.
‘ am awaiting the day when the Calif post mentions only Spainsh named victims in the threads.’
Does anybody remember when the city of LA tried to ban leafblowers, those things that produce 30 times as much air pollution and 100 times as much noise pollution as the average car, woke both my girls regularly during naptime, and blow leaves around people’s driveways? The proposed law was defeated after it was portrayed as a racist attack on Latinos, because they form the bulk of the leaf blowing industry. I couldn’t believe it then, but now I suspect it is not long before the the cries of racism emerge from FBs who didn’t/couldn’t read the documents they signed.
The splittin’ is my job, leave the good Lord out of it.
I don’t think she needs to worry.
AFAIK La Migra doesn’t do foreclosures.
“Each day at the stroke of noon, Dean Roots arrives at the courthouse steps to read the 40 or so new homes put on the block. For months now, no more than a half-dozen onlookers have turned out for the ritual. On most days, no one even bids.”
Mark to Modesto
are these auctions with no reserve?
These are auctions with no bidders.
I’ve attended a couple of these auctions on the courthouse steps. The minimum bid is the 1st mortgage balance. If there are no bids then the house goes back to the bank.
TOOO funny, first we had “mark to market”, then we had “mark to model” and now we have “MARK TO MODESTO”
I analyze credit for a living and “mark to modesto” is now in my lingo
Jose Vizcaino was lured by the American dream of owning a home. After 12 years in the Bay Area, he was finally able to buy a house at the beginning of the year when he purchased one in El Sobrante for $502,000.”
“‘It’s like, ‘Wow, this is my first place,’ he said. ‘They say sign here and sign there and you don’t pay attention.’ In retrospect, he wishes he scrutinized the documents.”
“After a short time, Vizcaino’s manageable 8.9 percent interest rate ballooned to 11 percent.”
8.9 percent X $502,000 = $44,678 / year in interest payments. Since this was ‘manageable,’ let’s assume for the moment that the interest (only) was 30 percent of Jose’s income. This implies he earns $44,678 / 0.3 = $148,927 / year. Is that a fairly typical income for El Sobrante residents? (I think not, and I used to live about 2 miles down the road…)
In case it is not obvious, my illustration is very conservative as I have only considered the “Interest” component of PITI.
So that’s what the former major league shortstop is doing… losing his house.
What makes you think he was paying any principal? And do you want to bet he made his tax payments?
My illustration assumed interest only — i.e., I was assuming he was paying no principal, not to mention no insurance, no taxes, no maintenance costs, no HOA, no Mello Roos, etc. etc. etc.
Yeah, I just watched My First House on HGTV last night. He was a loan officer, she, an Admin Asst - their first house was to be $250K in Atlanta burb. They got a 30 -year with I/O the first ten, because it was an “investment house.” I’m betting either that’s the only way they could get in, or they wanted nice cars, too.
Does anyone else think that financial reporters should have to pass a fifth-grade arithmetic diagnostic test to qualify for their positions?
My guess is, they might actually pass the straight arith, but they’re obviously flunking the Word Problems. (Does 5th grade still have Word Problems?)
My son is in fifth grade, and he has math problems that his dad cannot answer
I think I know the problems you mean, as my fifth-grade niece tried (unsuccessfully) to stump me. You just have to brush up on the combination formula for selecting a subset “k” out of “n” - it’s n!/k!(n-k)!
Here’s a quasi-stumper that depends on permutations and combinations. It doesn’t come from 5th grade though. It comes from noticing that a few of the pairs of adjacent cards in a shuffled deck would also have been adjacent in the unshuffled deck. Here’s the problem:
Let i_1, i_2, … i_n be a permutation of the natural numbers 1, 2, … n. Define an “adjacency” as a pair i_k, i_(k+1) whose absolute difference is 1. Find E, the expected number of adjacencies.
From doing this “the hard way” for n = 1,2,3,4, and 5, I arrive at the hypothesis that E will always be 2 - 2/n. A proof by induction would be what I would like to try, but I haven’t figured it out yet.
I’d like to properly thank the original poster for this link (dang, I can’t remember which one!)
Step up!
MATH
http://www.textbookleague.org/103feyn.htm
“(Does 5th grade still have Word Problems?)”
You mean, like “If Bill rows upstream at 5 miles per hour and John, who is 3 miles away rows downstream at 7 miles an hour, how long will it take Steve, walking along the bank at 2 miles an hour, to find the square root of 348?”
I never liked those…
My third grader has word problems. And he’s already a pretty good comparison shopper. My guess is he’ll be too intelligent to be a reporter!
Right on, Prof.
Jose Vizcaino YOU COULD NEVER AFFORD $502,000 for a home!
When the boom started and I saw all of the Trash
(Trash)
Taking
Rash
Assbite
Stupid
Headlong
decisions that they were entitled to the ‘American Dream’ of owning a home for nothing down - I knew that the ‘End’ was in. When Juan Sixpack is gunhoe about something that involves finances, the smart money is then selling to them and out of the market.
Yeah, no white people were getting no money down ARMs’ or thought they were entitled to the “American Dream”. It truly sucks that all the “gunhoe” Latinos ruined the American Dream for all of us natives.
I think Jose Viscaino used to play shortstop for the Giants. He should have saved more.
El Sobrante = “the leftover”
Since he’s four months behind, that implies that he made at most 7 payments at 11% in eleven months. At 8.9%, the same money would have been able to pay at most nine months.
So even without a rate change, he’s still two months behind.
I love math!
Luv, that’s PI without the TI, woah baby!
We (collective us, or some) are fracked!
The numbers, it’s the numbers!
Ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Hugs,
Leigh
Mark to Merced
“But she no longer feels comfortable taking business from Merced sellers who appear to be calling her out of desperation. ‘It’s hard even for a staged home to stand out from the rest of the homes when new home prices are comparable to resale homes,’ Zupan says.”
My limited experience says staging actually works. But it doesn’t work to overcome absurdity, only to overcome ambivalence. She should stage for people who are pricing below the comps.
Ah, hell. The valley is just goin’ home. Back to dirt and cows, trees and turkeys. All of those that bought here thinking something was different here were right - it’s hot in the summer, cold and wet all winter, and smells like crap all year. Those that grew up in the valley honestly wouldn’t live many other places, and the plunging necklines and 500K will not change the long term outlook: It’s ag here.
It is really expensive to do agriculture in the valley now. A dairy license is now $700K and takes 5 years.
The EPA is shoving regulations down the San Joaquin farmers that no other state has to follow.
I am sure there are a lot of farmers that would have liked to have seen the housing market keep going up - so they could get out and go to a more friendly state.
A DAIRY LICENSE??!!?
How hard can it be, anyway? You squeeze with one hand, you squeeze with the other. Repeat until jug is full.
It’s the dairy people that lobby their reps for the high license fees and long waits, it keeps the competition away. Get it?
Yep. There’s your “free-market” capitalism.
Money=Power Power=Money
‘There’s buyers out there, but they’re just not buying. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They’re going to see it drop and then they’ll wait for it to drop some more,’ said Chuck Smiar, a Realtor in Escondido. ‘They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.’”
So what is the deal with REALTORS always criticizing potential buyers? They should be admonishing greedy sellers who insist on 2005 pricing despite an obvious change in lending standards and economic conditions. It is the buyers that will ultimately allow REALTORS to shop, eat, buy stupid trucks and RVs, etc. by actually providing the money to fund these purchases.
These a$$holes represent why I’m digging my heels in and will resist buying until at least 2011 or 2012. By then, REALTORS should be quite respectful of buyers possessing good income, assets, and credit.
What do you call a REALTOR in 2010?
Hey waiter!
Check please and I’ll add 6% tip
Most excellent humor !!
Don’t forget he has to give up 3% to the buyer’s age… er… um… I mean… busboy….
No, Mr. Realtor, I’m not interested in buying a house yet, but I would like fries with that.
I want Suzanne with the plunging neckline to wait my table.
Waiter (TM)?
Shouldn’t that be Waiter with the circle-R symbol?
ahem…
everyone is forgetting the new capitalization.
WAITER!!! ™
Brilliant
OK I have to open the source page now to see how you did the “TM”
Waitor?
LMAO Ben,
You sure have a burr in your saddle today!
Love it, simply love it>\\
You know the crap is deep when Ben’s head starts spinning.
“So what is the deal with REALTORS always criticizing potential buyers?”
You would think these dolts would treat their best potential customers with a bit of respect.
Yep. I plan on not using one ever again. There should be plenty of FSBO’s available at good prices. No need to put up with their BS.
I didn’t say it was going to zero. Did you say it was going to zero? Did any housing bear say it was going to zero?
Add that realtor to the JT list (which, thanks to Sammy S, includes a complimentary tasing)
He’s just being the UH-salesman version of the Brave Little Toaster. He only puts up a bold front so you don’t notice the fear in his eyes.
We *are* going to be in for a surprise, specifically by how fast things go to zero.
I’ve seen some condos for which even zero is overpriced, taking into account taxes, assessments and energy costs.
My cuz in FL says the likely rental income for his condo would barely cover taxes, assessments, and insurance. Zero interest.
“I’ve seen some condos for which even zero is overpriced, taking into account taxes, assessments and energy costs.”
I agree. I would not buy a condo in Florida.
I read that some foreclosed houses were abandoned by banks in some distressed towns and have to be razed by the local government. It is possible for the house going to zero. Well if it does I don’t think most people would want it though.
“Changes in mortgage rates will mean more foreclosures and as much as a 30-percent price drop in home value in the Inland Empire, he said.”
Hmmm… only 30 percent price drop in the IE? I’m thinking of a different number…
Got popcorn?
Neil
If the loan packages are going for $0.20 on the dollar, maybe the houses will too. After all, this *is* the IE we’re talking about.
If foreclosure fits, you must desist!
If it’s too much cost, you must get lost!
Why not just buy the MBS with servicing agreements at 20% and when they go into foreclosure, take the house? LOL
Hoz, that’s actually a very interesting idea. A nice employee perk for the servicers: free houses as bonuses. Less REO to deal with.
if you have a generator and don’t mind a latreen they’re already free
I have smallish notes on a few dozen mobile homes and lots, and then three larger notes on three real houses. I would be willing to use any one of the three real houses if it came to that. Else, I would not have made the loans. I have no use for all three houses though, hope I don’t get ‘em.
‘Hmmm… only 30 percent price drop in the IE? I’m thinking of a different number’
No kidding! How about 50%.
All of the Roofers, Drywallers, Landscapers, Painters, Finish Carpenters, Plumbers and Electrician’s are out of Frickin Work Now!!!!!!!!!!
- Guess what? The Inland Empires Warehouse workers will not be able to pick up the slack (or all of the used pick up trucks for sale)
OT — Yesterday, Ben posted an excerpt from the Santa Maria Times about Santa Barbara County’s current and prospective non-judicial foreclosure activity. It behooves me to point out that the California
Civil Code provides a statutory exemption from declining home-price medians for all parcels located in our county’s Southern reaches — and away from such icky places as Lompoc, Orcutt, and Santa Maria. Hence, no such foreclosure action is expected here. The legislative intent of the Code’s pertinent provisions is to prevent one of the planet’s most lustrous jewels, our South Coast, from suffering even the faintest whiff of exhaust fumes from a ‘77 Camaro. (See, however, the Tab Hunter exception, one of several carved out among the statute’s subprovisions.)
Accordingly, South County home prices are holding steady (if not rising), as measured by those tell-all medians. This week’s post at the Santa Barbara Housing Bubble Blog provides the numbers. The post is, by the way, entitled “Meditations on a Dancing Lesbian” — which headline probably speaks for itself. Should you pay us a visit, please don’t hesitate to sign the guest book.
Saint Barbara
/ playboy air freshener off
she would if they paid- I love the false altruism
“she no longer feels comfortable taking business from Merced sellers who appear to be calling her out of desperation.
Yea… I think the checks were bouncing. Let’s face it, if she was still doing a good business… she wouldn’t have stopped. Her comments fail the ’smell test.’
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Chuck Smiar, a Realtor in Escondido. ‘They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.’”
I don’t think it is going to zero, but I do think it is going to less than 120 X comparable rent, and I am not willing to buy until it does.
When the house on the lot needs to be torn down–something that can become necessary after a very short time with a leaky roof, etc–it can be worth LESS than zero because you have to subtract the demolition cost.
And this scenario has happened many times before in neighborhoods (Detroit, Newark, Buffalo) with once-nice homes
And this scenario has happened many times before in neighborhoods (Detroit, Newark, Buffalo) with once-nice homes
Go to Google Earth or Zillow and take a look at the suburbs of Detroit — in many blocks half the housing lots are empty. The houses were demolished because they were worth less than the cost of repairing them, and demand for lots on which to build houses is nonexistent. The houses still standing can be picked up for about $30k each.
Interestingly, comparable houses jump from $30k to about $150k in a couple of blocks as you cross into the municipality of Grosse Pointe.
Fascinating economics in action.
P.S. I am perfectly happy to rent the rest of my days, but not sure about my wife. The first time she ever pressures me about buying a home, I am going to have her pencil out an estimate of the costs (and luckily for me, she is extremely cost conscious — a trait that helps keep us afloat in a sea of financial uncertainty!).
check this out
http://www.landsandiego.com/Nav.aspx/Page=%2fpagemanager%2fdefault.aspx%3fpageid%3d1195047
This has been on the market for more than 18 months, with no price reduction! I know an agent showed it to us in Apr 06.
Without doubt the scariest house I have ever been in!!! The owners were home. If we ever think about buying again, I will never look at another house if the owner is home…..it really was that bad!
Link only brings up Realtor’s site. Can you link to Realtor.com?
Make sure she never gets Suzanne on the speakerphone!
You got to be kiddin’. 120 x comparable rent? No way, ain’t gonna happen. My rent is 1750. The house I live in will never go for $210k.
It can be done in San Diego - I did it. But not since around 1996. My guess is we’ll see 120x rent again in the next 5 years sometime.
Condo I sold in Glendale CA in 1996 was 130x likely monthly rent. Maybe Wickedheart’s house won’t go for 120x rent, but condos will.
The house I live in will never go for $210k.
No, it’ll go for less.
I bought a house for under $120K in early 1998. I would have easily rented for $1,000, IMHO. Probably would rent for $1,500 now…maybe more.
It CAN be done, and with the credit markets they way they are, in addition to recession/depression…it’s entirely possible it will go lower than that.
Keep your powder dry.
I agree with Wickedheart about the 120x rent, at least in Silicon Valley. I rented a house in 1993 in Santa Clara. 1800. the house was worth about 350k then. Roughly 2k sq ft, 4 bd. That’s 194x rent. The ratio has only gone up since then. Partially for real reasons (lower interest rates on 30 year mortgages, more Asian immigrants who have a strong preference for owning) and partially for the obvious bogus reasons.
Now the rent would be around 2500, price probably 900k, 360x rent. So I guess the price will fall, but not to 300k (120x rent).
OK people,
FED cuts, market tanks
WHAT TOOLS ARE LEFT IN THE TOOLBOX?
gonnna keep on cuttin or are we moving to more serious “activist fed” intervention strategies…..
another suprise cut on the way?
Gonna start poppin caps in treasury @ss?
hmmmmmm, Oh even better, hows about an inflation target of about 6%.
cmon people lets think outside the box.
Vozworth, thanks for posting this about stock drop. I usually get to see Lehrer, but today is a nephew’s b’day so things are messed up. Yup, rates down and stocks down does stick it to them.
whats your definition of an illiquid stock?
volume wise.
Are you asking ME? I don’t invest in stocks any more. I can tell you about a super illiquid one, though. Friedman Industries on the American Exchange in 1976 or so. 500 shares traded one day when I was trying to sell 500. Yuck.
Voz, the Federal Reserve has only one piece of ammunition - the ability to raise or lower the Fed Funds rate. All other powers that the Federal Reserve had, are gone. Today the Federal Reserve controls about $45B.
Zero net add today. Zero net add yesterday. I’m anxious to see what they’re going to do with the $25b maturing tomorrow.
“FED cuts, market tanks.”
Heard on Kudlow that the market was hoping for 50 basis points, not 25.
Whatever. It means more inflation and gold going over $900.
yer talkin to a guy who is callin 2k gold, and 130 bucks a barrel.
lol
modesty is not my strong suit…
thus, the “Modest” cut
santa clause rally,
here’s why tank aint empty.
all the 30k shitbox jobs have not gotten the extra $300.00 bucks from the Boss. and a fifty cent raise.
this is my last bit.
if we do not top-kick our our own idiots, have a deep recessionary pullback, figure out who is swimming naked, we’ll never know just how ficticious the “global wage” “decoupling” “ficticious capital” is out there….
cmon people…..we gotta test the BullShizNit.
end the bond rally… let go of the 30yr bonds….accelerate the cash……run for the money.
Saw some new houses in San Ramon, 30 miles east of SF this weekend. Shapell Homes was offering $195K off a $1,100,000 home which was 3100 sq. ft. for only the weekend. Almost 20% off for one of the better builders. Really starting to see price declines the last 3 months.
I too keep hearing about the “incredible” price drops from builders in san ramon.
I was at a party a couple of weeks ago, and heard excited chatter about houses being “given away” for ~$700K and about how people were going to “invest” by raising a HELOC.
I quietly slipped away from the party as the kool-aid was being passed around.
I’m still waiting for price drops in silicon valley. I would love to pay $1.5m for a nice nhood, 10k lot, non-scraper house. Can’t do it yet. Price drops in San Ramon don’t really help me, I’m not willing to take a 60-90 min commute.
“…gotten rid of racks of flashy tops with plunging necklines that were favorites with real estate agents, substituting a line of conservative sweaters popular with farmers’ wives.”
Plunging: (rearrange in order of your perspective or concern)
realwhores necklines
stock market
real estate prices
economy
value of the US Dollar $
citizen’s savings account
pension funds
faith in the Federal Reserve
qualifying buyers for mortgages
Temperature in Flagstaff AZ
“After 12 years in the Bay Area, he was finally able to buy a house at the beginning of the year when he purchased one in El Sobrante for $502,000.”
A little reality check needed here, a first home should cost nowhere near 500k. A first time buyer should not be able get a loan for 500k, (unless he makes 200k/year and can prove it)
I agree..our first home cost us $80K back in 1993…it was a true starter home that we actually kept for a rental because the mortgage was so cheap..we sold it when the boom happened for $320K…..
“A little reality check needed here, a first home should cost nowhere near 500k. A first time buyer should not be able get a loan for 500k, (unless he makes 200k/year and can prove it)”
Amen. And here in the “professional services” sector of the Bay Area, I know of first-time home purchases as high as $1.1MM. I’m not kidding. Tiny down payments, IO loans, the works. I don’t know of anyone who bought recently who can genuinely afford their home over the long term.
This is where I just can’t imagine there isn’t genuine fraud on the part of these lending companies. They KNEW loans like this to this idiot were gonna go bad, and planned to leave those poor suckers who bought the paper with the bag. Unless they were just incompetent beyond any imagination.
…well, don’t leave out:
C) both of the above
I think most of them really did convince themselves that real estate only goes up, so everything would be fine. They drank their own kool aid.
it was all a scam . . . cash in while you can, if/when your company goes under find another firm and repeat . . .
“Perret’s gotten rid of racks of flashy tops with plunging necklines that were favorites with real estate agents, substituting a line of conservative sweaters popular with farmers’ wives.”
Too bad Mentor and Inamed can’t repo the silicon that plumped up those necklines.
If they repossess, you must confess!
After 12 years in the Bay Area, he was finally able to buy a house at the beginning of the year when he purchased one in El Sobrante for $502,000.”
No. The cold hard truth is he could never afford a house. Some slick taking hispanic RE just wanting to make some money off him and he had stars in his eyes. I’d like to see what he was telling his family and friends weeks after inking the doc’s.
“Sal Arroyo, who manages a Western wear store in Fresno, California, said selling $300 ostrich-skin boots is a challenge, since sometimes as few as 10 shoppers come in each hour. ‘Money’s really tight and that’s hard for us,’ Arroyo said.”
We went to Mexican-style rodeo a few months ago, here in the Central Valley…
We’d never been to one before and were blown away by the clothes the vaqueros were wearing, and our friends told us that their hats alone cost around $500 per, and looked sharp, just like their skills displayed on horse.
Ostrich-skin cowboy boots are standard upscale footwear for this crowd, from what we saw.
Could I have an Ostrich burger with my boots please?
I used to work with a guy whose family were Ostrich moguls. He may be retired now.
“Jose Vizcaino was lured by the American dream of owning a home.”
I am getting sick of this “American Dream” BS put out by the debt merchants and real estate con artists.
It’s not a dream dimwits - it’s a place to live. Why is it that the British don’t have the “British Dream” - the Germans the “German Dream” - The Spain - the “Spanish Dream?”
Americans are the most manipulated pack of ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ misfits in the world. And, it’s the perfect escape hatch for every mortgage ’stated income’ fraudster out there - ‘I was just trying to get my piece of the American Dream - boo hoo.’
The American dream is “American” because all those other nations do not have the legacy of unrestricted drive to wealth. We have high taxes and large government today, combined with envious leftists who want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. But that just drives us individualists underground and we give the socialists the one-fingered salute. Here’s to Hillary (my salute).
We have high taxes and large government today, combined with envious leftists who want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
Unfortunately, the right-wingers (well, at least they were supposed to be right-wingers) in power these days are not much better.
Well, Bill, there IS a war going on, and If I recall, hmmmm, largest expansion of government has occured under this GOP administration. They’re motto, though, is No Tax and Spend. How’s that working out?
Right back atcha Mr. Fascist.
Preach it, brotha! It’s the housing! As to what was stated above, I remember when the 300K homes were very nice and in nice neighborhoods.
What happened here? Whay does everyone feel like they are entitled to a 500K faux chateau?
You want the uMerKan dream. Save up. Yes, save up 50, 75, maybe a 100K and go buy a nice home for 100-150K somewhere affordable. Then, if you need a mortgage you can get a nice 10-15 year with 50-75% down. Nice, a 400-500 month payment, at most. Why is this so difficult. If you refuse to move because yo make good coin, but not enough to buy the overpriced used PoS without wearing a debt chain for 40 years, stop whining and rent.
As one of my fellow Little League umpires said last year after quitting because of parents and coaches bertating him, “Life is too short for this!”
How right he is. Life is too short to be in debt, esp. to da boyz and the banksters.
RE: You want the uMerKan dream.
Speakin’ of the uMerkan dream…WTF happened to MARTY?
Now there was a poster!
Problem is all the job creation of the past few years came up with low end, minimum wage, dead end type jobs. Can’t save up much on those. With all the folks that will be losing jobs soon, on top of the destruction of all the middle class manufacturing jobs, kids starting adult life with $100K in student loans, there’s not much chance for savings anymore.
American Dream should be ‘Getting well-eductaed and earning wealth by hard work’ Getting into massive debt shouldn’t be the Dream.
The American dream is the result of British philosopher John Locke who wrote:
“life, liberty, and estate (or property)” - the concept was so novel that first Adam Smith rephrased it as “life, liberty and the pursuit of property”. Thomas Jefferson plagiarized the phrase in the Declaration of Independence. Thus the American Dream was born.
Also the only ones allowed to vote in the US were landowners. The American Dream was first written as the hope to vote.
An Economic Interpretation of
The Constitution of The United States
by
Charles A. Beard
1913
It used to be understood that the American Dream was an opportunity to WORK for something in life, not to have it handed to you. Someone needs to tell that to these modern American Dreamers with their huge sense of entitlement.
I’m trying to think when this “American dream” stuff started. I’ve never much liked it. When I was growing up we used to always hear that in America you could be anything you wanted, that there was nothing too high to aspire to.
But I don’t remember it ever being about “dreams.” It was about figure out what you want to do and do it and don’t think you can’t do it. I never heard anybody say, “Dream big,” or “Live your dreams.” Hell, anybody can have dreams, whether literally or figuratively. Dreams ain’t $h%t - in fact, I always thought they were pretty worthless. America was never about dreams - it was about waking your ass up and taking charge. Screw dreams.
I suppose it started by stealing the land from the King and letting illiterate former peasants own some of it. And they say tradition is dead!
Tony RObbins? etc.
The American Dream is the dream that one day you will have a nice home, universal health care, and security into retirement.
And yes, it is a dream! You are dreaming if you think you are getting any of that in this country!
Universal healthcare leads to the government telling you what you can eat, what you can drive or ride, how much you can weigh, whether or not you should be aborted, or whether or not you should let doctors kill you in order to save the state the cost of caring for you.
Six most dangerous words in the English language:
“We know what’s good for you.”
Pass the peace pipe Otis. You’ve had enough.
Medical care for profit and with the threat of lawsuits leads to the most expensive medical care in the world, and not even close to the best.
In order to have a free market you have to understand the product, ie you have to understand medicine, medical law, and the insurance industry that changes the rules weekly.
I think a hybrid plan is the best. Basic medical care is universal with a heavy reliance on an open cost benefit analysis. Then if you want the bells and whistles you buy private insurance. You would get competition among drug makers and surgeons to make sure their therapy was covered under the universal plan ie lower prices. Every one would get vaccinations and primary care. Expensive marginally effective therapy would be reserved for those willing to pay or who have private insurance. It would dramatically cut costs and improve outcomes.
Why do people think we can only have one of the extremes?
Why can’t we have basic universal coverage, and people would have the option to upgrade or change anything they’d like?
It’s in society’s best interest (that’s all of us, folks), to have a healthy, productive workforce that’s relatively free of contagious and life-threatening diseases.
the Germans the “German Dream”
Beware of the dreams of Germans…
TOOOOOOOOooooooooo funny.
“That’s where Rosie Santos lined up to fork over $4,000 in property taxes. ‘We had to cut back on everything,’ said Santos. ‘We just cut back on stuff. This Christmas we are picking names and giving adults only one gift.’”
So, how come the “bailout” proposals never include a freeze in property taxes? How about rolling tax valuations back for these “poor” people?
From the article Ben posted:
Tax Assessor Marc Tonneson said he granted 900 tax bill reductions which amounts to 90% of those that applied.
‘They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.’” — No, no! Please, not “the surprise”!!! Ahhhhh!!! Anything but the surprise!!
Surprise… it’s “Less Than Zero”! You can’t GIVE them away!!!
Anecdotal report from Tucson: I live next door to a Hispanic couple who both work as janitors. At this time of the year, they usually put up a Christmas display that lights up the whole block. Using the word “festive” to describe it would be an understatement.
But, speaking of the word “understatement,” that’s the right to use to describe this year’s version. Tucson Electric Power just isn’t making as much money off of them as it had in previous years.
I suspect that their finances may be a bit tight. The man of the house seems to be home more often these days, and that’s a sign that he’s not working as many hours. As for her, I’m pretty sure that she still has her job.
Since this is the day-ending CA thread, I thought I would give an update as to Rancho Santa Margarita (South OC) for you non-Clownifornians.
Anyway, my wife stops by the local oil broker to fill up. Being Philippino, like the attendent, they strike up a conversation. Low and behold the attendent has a sister who is a realWhore. She tells my wife to take her sister’s card, but my wife declines saying we are watching and waiting. Well, the attendant says her sister has some nice homes in Robinson Ranch.
At this point my jaw fell to the floor. Not only does our landlord live in RR, but homes there go for 800, 900, a cool mil. No problem the woman says. There are some cheap homes there.
Well, the conversation ended with my wife saying that we are not looking to pay that much. We will wait and if they don’t come down, we’ll just continue to rent. My wife is an accountant and abhors debt as much as I do. Besides, we rent a nice condo that rents to the equivalent of what the old 28%-33% guidelines used to be for buying. So our LL is not in trouble, either. Why be in a hurry when we are saving and staying out of debt. And all on one income!
That ended the conversdation with the gas lady, but I told my wife that her sister the realtWhore has to be suffering. Why would you pimp your sister in this kind of downspin cycle, esp. in the million dollar gated-community?
Things have really got to be slow.
My wife is Filipino too. I suspect that building up webs of relationships is a cultural imperative (utang na loob). Particularly isolated in this wierd alien land.
In this case the gas lady can potentially do a favor for two people = big points. (Assuming she doesn’t realize that she would be pushing you folks under the falling knife
)
As an interested observer I’m wondering if Fil-Ams are unconsciously reacting to the growing economic storm clouds by storing up utang na loob for the future, like squirrels hiding nuts.
Low and behold the attendent has a sister who is a realWhore.
LOL!
Dropping the ‘t’ now — really telling it like it is…
“‘Unfortunately, I lost my job through all of this,’ Fulton said, describing the year-long negotiations with her lender. ‘I was dealing with Countrywide; they were calling every day and I lost my job because of that, because of those calls.’”
HA! This guy wins “excuse of the week” for losing his job!
BTW: I wish the press would indicated whether or not these people had 100% (or even 110%) financing, or if they HELOC’d at all.
Because someone who financed 100% didn’t really “lose” anything if they have to leave after two years. There’s very little equity paid off at the beginning of the loan (or none, if there’s a HELOC).
People with no money down paying teaser rates simply rented for a few years and now have to move. A bummer, but certainly no tragedy.
We just hope the value goes up again.
Well, you can “hope” in one hand,…
I was stuck with this comment myself. She complains on one hand that the taxes are too high and she is in finacial trouble because there are so many forclosure.
He incredible insight is that she hopes prices will go up!
WTF?
If prices are dropping, your taxes should drop also. If pricess go up, your taxes can also go up.
Forclosures in your area should not effect your ability to pay your bills. If you could pay before the house next to you forclosed, you can pay now. I am getting really tired of the average Joe complaining that he is in trouble because of “All the forclosures”
Digger
“There’s buyers out there, but they’re just not buying. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They’re going to see it drop and then they’ll wait for it to drop some more,’ said Chuck Smiar, a Realtor in Escondido. ‘They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.’”
In for a surprise? What surprise? Are you going to quit your job?
The surprise is when people find out that big earthquakes can and do happen in California. 6.0+ destroys houses with no insurance? Surprise!
“Sal Arroyo, who manages a Western wear store in Fresno, California, said selling $300 ostrich-skin boots is a challenge, since sometimes as few as 10 shoppers come in each hour. ‘Money’s really tight and that’s hard for us,’ Arroyo said.”
I hereby give any HBBer permission to shoot me in the head if I’m ever in Fresno shopping for ostrich-skin boots. Hell, you have my permission to shoot me if I’m ever in Fresno.
Hell, you’ll shoot yourself!
Hey now, speaking as a longtime Fresnan who visits on a monthly basis because his family still lives there, . . . oh heck, who am I kidding, you’re right.
Making a note of it.
But I forgot to ask—you want a whole bunch of little bullets or just one really big one? Details, man.
Olympiagal, I’m a big fan of surprises. Bazooka, .357, Derringer. As long as it gets the job done.
“Fulton and Nitolo were among the 300 or so attendees Saturday at a public forum to help homeowners fight foreclosure. Organized by ACORN — the Association of Community Organizers Now — the forum was also attended by State Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata, D-Oakland, and Assemblymembers Sandre Swanson, D-Oakland, and Loni Hancock, D-Berkeley. The lawmakers said they would propose a 90-day stay on foreclosures and a five-year stay on interest rate resets until the current foreclosure crisis subsides. ”
I think it’s time for someone to go over there (if you want to risk your life going to Oakland) and be the “Devils Advocate”. Ask the tough questions to those who speak of foreclosures hurting the american dream. Ask them why they suddenly can’t afford a house after paying the mortgage for only 8 months. Ask them why they foreclosed on a house they lived in for more than 40 years. Ask them how much money they put down to buy the house. Ask them what kind of cars they drive? Are they paying for Cable? Cell Phone? D0 they eat out to often? This ACORN forum is a joke.
Why they are fighting against affordable housing
Exaclty!
The Shill NAR says everything looking up for next year.
Hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They have to sell hope. The NAR is probably worried about a big drop in license renewals.
License renewals drop? But arent realtors professionals? In other industries where people move to other professions I am sure doctors, lawyers, and engineers keep their license renewals current even if they are doing something completely different. hmmm.
“There’s buyers out there, but they’re just not buying. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They’re going to see it drop and then they’ll wait for it to drop some more,’ said Chuck Smiar, a Realtor in Escondido
Wrong shill.
When the value of hard work is reflected in the house prices I will buy. The go go free wheeling free money days are over pal. You Beg boy!
From the SF Chronicle article:
“‘We disproportionately enjoyed much higher home price appreciation over the last several years with the uses of subprime and Alt-A loans,’ said Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange. ‘This is going to come to haunt us.’”
*******
It’s enjoyable to see the return of reality - notably by seeing “Alt-A” and “haunt” in the same comment.
“I don’t call it the ‘Alt-A Bay Area’ for nothing!”
I just wrote my Congress critter opposing the sub prime bail out plan. Brian Bilbray for others in North Country San Diego, his response:
Thank you for taking the time to contact me regarding subprime loans. I appreciate hearing from you on this important issue.
Perhaps the most central component of the American Dream is home ownership. From the earliest generation of Americans settlers, we all have sought to find land and lay down roots. Americans take great pride when they are able to save enough money for a down payment. This is evident on the faces of the millions of new American homeowners every time they walk into their homes.
Unfortunately, as with every market, the residential housing market is cyclical. In this past housing boom, large numbers of people were able to bypass traditional mortgage prerequisites by taking out subprime loans. Mortgage lenders eager to service the upswing in the housing cycle granted subprime loans to individuals and families with poor credit or insufficient income. These new loans were offered to individuals who lacked the traditional resources and credit that helped most people achieve home ownership.
Many who purchased a home with subprime loans speculated that the rising housing market would continue. As with all classic market bubbles, this strategy works for a while until the markets corrects the overvaluation. Once the housing market collapsed, many subprime borrowers found they could no longer afford their payment, and the shrinking equity in their home meant that the market value of their home would be insufficient to cover the balance of their loan, thus leaving them trapped. Borrowers caught in this situation were left with few options and as a result foreclosures have significant increased.
In response, on September 10, 2007 , Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) introduced S. 2036, the Protecting Access to Safe Mortgages Act. This bill would provide funds to individuals with subprime loans to allow them to refinance their loan to a new loan at a prime rate. While the bill is well intentioned, unfortunately this legislation is premised on rescuing financially irresponsible borrowers. In our market economy individuals are expected to manage their finances responsibly. By devoting resources to rescuing those who knowingly accepted high risk loans, a dangerous precedent would be created that the federal government will serve as a safety net for financial actors who choose to undertake extreme risk in the market. Furthermore, this approach would also perversely punish people who acted responsibly by waiting until they had the financial means to purchase a home. This bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. If this bill or similar legislation comes before the House of Representatives for consideration, I will be sure to keep your views in mind.
Again, thank you for contacting me. If you have further questions please call me or my office at (202) 225-0508.
Sincerely,
Brian Bilbray
Member of Congress
By devoting resources to rescuing those who knowingly accepted high risk loans, a dangerous precedent would be created that the federal government will serve as a safety net for financial actors who choose to undertake extreme risk in the market.
Well at least one congresscritter gets it.
Good letter by Brian Bilbray . Maybe while I’m writing little checks to Ben Jones and Ron Paul, I’ll throw in one for Bilbray.
Thanks for sharing that, Mike.
Of all the politicians I’ve written to, he seems to be the only one who gets it.
I almost miss the “soft landing, ain’t making anymore land, buy now or be priced out forever” BS we read here EVERY DAY for months from our beloved MSM assclowns.
Almost.
Months?
How about years?
They may not be making any more land, but they sure made more houses. Lots of ‘em.
Interesting article on Barrons: Twisted ARMs and Figures That Lie
http://tinyurl.com/2f4p6p
I just got back from a civic club meeting, and a guy there told me bldg permits stopped last Sept. No one’s building he says. Now I know some condos are going in by the river..but I think he meant the sfh builders. So city council went and approved two new developments, one big for us at 600 units, because they’re starved for permit money.
i am a civil engr in the LA area, and lets say that nothing is going into final engr anymore. Its all going into planning and going to sit until the market comes back. So about a year from now, stuff will start to hit the fan. I don’t think this will be realized any sooner than a year though. Thats why no actual bad news has come out yet with the builders. I dont see any news on one of the top 10 builders we work with on what they did in the SoCal region. So give it some time.
I guess Barbara Boxer is proposing more legislation to try and stave off foreclosures by bailing irresponsible homemoaners out. Make sure you write Boxer and the rest of them too!
Anyone keeping a tally of the number of job losses tied to real estate and the financial industry in southern california so far? I ask because of the comparison to the aerospace/defense downturn in the 90’s that supposedly was much worse than anything we’ll see here in the next couple of years. I don’t recall the exact number, but 300K jobs lost sticks in my head. Further, how many dual income households do you suppose were directly tied to RE? Birds of a feather flock together…
When you read the the stories on FB who foreclosed on their house or about to go foreclosure, they end up saying they should’ve have bought. But you get these politicians and regulators trying to keep them in their houses a little longer by throwing money at them. I think it is more like, “help me get out of this mess, I don’t want this house anymore!”
The fix is in
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071212/bs_ft/fto121220070025397966;_ylt=AhDFjg4hn7TsXlPoT5uII7Os0NUE
FED will accept toilet paper from banks as collateral for large loans.