Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For December 13, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Crigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Ahhhh . . . feel better now.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=21844#post21844
Best line from this - “the housing crash hasn’t begun yet”
Uh oh.
That jumped out at me too….
It is certainly true. Because you can fail to sell your house for as much as you want, and that is certainly the case now.
Based on the end of the 1980s bubble, there will be one big year of nominal price declines, coinciding with an recession and thus forced sales, and a couple of years of smaller nominal price declines. A few years of inflation will take care of the rest.
Seven to ten years from peak to bottom. If 2005 was 1987, then 2008 is 1990, a year of small drop, and 2009 is 1991, a year of big drop. Except that we had a small drop this year, so we might be a year ahead.
“Based on the end of the 1980s bubble, there will be one big year of nominal price declines, coinciding with an recession and thus forced sales, and a couple of years of smaller nominal price declines.”
Why would anyone base analysis of the current situation off the unraveling of the 1980s bubble? I see no resemblance whatever between then and now. In particular, in the early 1980s we were in a high-interest-rate environment with anti-inflation monetary policy, while we are currently in a low-interest-rate environment with anti-deflation monetary policy. And without checking, I seriously doubt there were anywhere near as many overextended households who used ARMs to buy homes they could not afford (but I would be interested if you can furnish contrary evidence).
Could you please explain why you don’t think it is different this time? I personally think U.S. 1930s or Japan 1990s is a better comparison, based on the high levels of unrepayable debt residing on U.S. hh balance sheets.
The regulatory environment also favors a long drawn out decline. The early-80’s recession occurred with a fairly unusual “take your medicine” hard-money policy. Bernanke’s big interest has always been avoiding a rerun of the Great Depression and we have both seen and expect a soft-money “take the edge” off policy, which will drag this out.
“the regulatory environment”
What’s a regulatory environment?
Since we are passing around good news this morning, here is a little ditty with some interesting links for anyone so inclined.
http://www.independencejournal.com/
The article mentions higher unemployment in the past has preceded the housing crash, but not this time. I’m guessing the higher unemployment isn’t being seen due to the fact that illegal immigrants being let go don’t sign up for unemployment benefits.
re: pb’s ” we are currently in a low-interest-rate environment…”
pb, are we still in a low interest rate when the only credit now available to j6p indebted up to his eyballs is from a credit card whose interest may be approaching 30%/yr??? i think this ‘low-interest-rate period’ is an illusion.
I found this very interesting. I felt the same when I heard about the new savings bond limit.
“We’ll keep our eye on changes in TIPs purchasing rules for signs the government may be worried about excessive inflation-indexed bond liabilities as the political pressure to inflate away debt mounts.”
I think this is the best line: BEIJING (Reuters) - Thousands of people in north-eastern China have protested on the streets and surrounded government offices demanding help recovering money from a get-rich-quick scheme to raise ants to make an aphrodisiac tonic.
Th raising of ants fad in China reminds me of the earthworm raising fad in the US some years back. Eathworms were deemed to become America’s new food source.
…a get-rich-quick scheme to raise ants to make an aphrodisiac tonic.
Right on. I get hot just thinking about ants crawling around.
Especially if they’re fire ants
chuckle…
Its going to take 10 years for this whole mess to be cleaned up. How people can say its contained and we are at a bottom when CBs are still injecting cash to help banks is beyond me.
And we haven’t even begun to see the failure of the MBS insurance companies. When they go it will trigger all sorts of things, including huge losses for banks.
We are a long, long way from the end of this.
the housing crash hasn’t begun yet
That’s good to know. That means that my job might last a bit longer and I’ll have more time to prepare for the storm.
In the meantime, I’ll feel good knowing that a whole bunch of people actually believe things will turn around in the spring “selling season” and the real panic won’t start until maybe August or so…
“We have 90% fewer qualified buyers for five-times the number of homes.”
Wow.
This is just silly. Once the price of homes re-equilibrates with housing purchase budgets, there will be qualified buyers for 100% of homes. IF THE PRICE IS TOO HIGH, IT WON’T EVER SELL.
But… but… but we CAN’T let prices return to AFFORDABLE levels?! Then, people won’t be debt-serfs!
“consumers, formerly known as citizens”… barf! I am NOT an American Consumer, I am an American CITIZEN. Although, anymore I am looking at the alternatives!
Stars End
You know how in Parlamentary democracies the people can dissolve a government and elect a new one? We we have the opposite happening here: the people (the citizenry) are being dissolved and replaced by a new people (”consumers”) that are being elected by the oligarchs.
I have heard more than one B school prof ridicule the concept of the “nation-state” along wth “citizenship”. In their greedy minds the only thing that exists is money and profit, and archaic concepts such as borders just get in the way.
it’s the mantra of the globalists…though history is running hard against them. The concept of nation-state itself is a fairly recent development–tribalism or ethnic and linguistic commonality has always been a stronger bond. The attempt to create ‘nation-states that blur tribal or ethnic lines in Africa has caused plenty of war and suffering–and Europe has plenty of recent examples of devolving nation-states–the break-up of the former Yugoslavia or the separation of Czech and Slovak, for example.
We’re channelling 1990 here now:
http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2007/12/on-the-home-mor.html
Mortgage loans on falling knives = “insecure debt”
Watching CNBC and trying to figure out what all the crybabies are whining about. What, exactly, do they think the Fed is supposed to do? Bring interest rates to zero and trash the long-term economy, not to mention the dollar?
Just had to vent…
“Bring interest rates to zero and trash the long-term economy, not to mention the dollar”?
Wall Street and their MSM buds couldn’t care less about the long term economy or the dollar. They have only one concern and it is their wallet. The ultimate in egos and self centeredness.
Ca. Renter …..Right ,what do the crybabies expect .BB should be raising interest rates ,but lenders are getting breaks .Some of the FB’s are getting breaks from the teaser freezers and the Feds are giving out short term loans based on junk paper. The powers are sitting up to rescue more loans or stimulate new lending by GSE’s lending . Lending rates are still low . What more do they want other than a outright taxpayer bail out in which they don’t have to pay the money back ?A bad loan or fraudulent loans are quicksand ,no way around it .
The real estate /lending industry /liar borrowers ruined it for everyone for years unless you have money to take advantage of the desperation sales coming down the pike .
In this morning’s headlines:
The Labor Department said Thursday that wholesale prices soared by 3.2 percent last month, propelled by a record 34.8 percent rise in gasoline costs.
I detect a whiff of stagflation in our future.
I wonder…are they supposed to increase rates to stop inflation (I realize it should help the dollar)? I was talking with my dad and he said raising interest rates actually causes inflation. Here was his argument: when interest rates go up things actually become more expensive. People will have to pay higher rates for loans, etc., so they’ll pass that on to their customers and prices will go up. He felt that the only reason raising rates “cures” inflation is because they eventually go high enough to kill the economy and everything in it, and then inflation goes away. I didn’t have a good argument for why he was wrong. It does seem like raising interest rates would cause inflation in the short to mid-term and it would only cause deflation by causing an economic crisis. I’m not sure I’m making any sense or explaining what he said properly, but I’d appreciate any thoughts on where his thinking might be wrong. Thanks!
Michael,
The answer is in how they increase interest rates — by taking money out of circulation. Less money chasing the same amount of goods gives less inflation. Similarly, lowering interest rates, like now, means printing more money and is inflationary. Question is will the money supply increased demand for goods offset the reduction in demand from those unemployed by the housing crisis? Stagflation if too much money, deperssion if too little. How much is too much–nobody really knows. Fed goes by trial and error–hopefully a little bit at a time. Everybody else knows better, one way or the other.
Will
Michael,
If they raise rates, it would force people to borrow less, which causes less demand on the costs of goods & services.
What happened in the housing market is exactly what happens when you open the credit floodgates (by lowering rates too much). Everybody borrows more (why not, if it’s free?) and uses that CREDIT to buy things. This forces prices up (like housing).
Higher interest rates can indeed slow down the economy, but sometimes that is necessary when inflation runs out of control (due to too much credit chasing the same goods and services).
I am specifically speaking about cost inflation (as opposed to wage inflation) in the above. Wages are affected by the credit markets, but more indirectly.
U.S. Holiday Sales Drop for Second Week, Research Group Says
http://tinyurl.com/2d625h
Sales fell 2.7 percent in the seven days through Dec. 8, following a 4.4 percent decline a week earlier…
Bill Martin, chief executive officer of ShopperTrak, blamed last week’s decline on “harsh weather mixed with the fact that procrastinating consumers still have two full weeks to complete their holiday shopping.”
Odd, no mention of the FB and home owner not be able to tap the home ATM as a reason for slowing sales.
Yeah. Bloomy radio reported this at 7am. I’m sure the bloated Wall Street Pigmen are in a frenzy over this. I think it speaks volumes.
The report is obviously wrong. Like real estate and the stock market, holiday sales always go up.
Kind of sounds like the NAR, “Sales are down due to bad weather”, or sales are down due to high cost of gas and so they can’t drive beyond ten miles.
Got to agree, though. Harsh weather in December- no one expects that.
it was fracking 65 degrees in the nations capitol yesterday.
harsh indeed.
If the weather is nasty, people always have the internet. No…nope…I think it must be somthing….else.
It has been in the 70’s all week in No. Cen. Fla.
VERY slow shopping, tho’! Maybe a bit of a frenzy Tues., mostly pensioners (sales?). Today seems dead.
I will say, there is a nasty cold going around town this week, and the students are leaving town in droves now.
Still … it looks bad. It looks really bad … The cars at the pawnshop have stopped moving again … and the prices are lower …
They compare year-over-year numbers by week. Then they explain that the reason this year’s numbers look bad is that shoppers are now waiting until the last minute to make their purchases.
No explanation forthcoming where these mysterious last minute shoppers (baby boomers? foreigners?) will parachute in from. And no explanation for this phenomenon, other than the usual weather blather, and the high gasoline blather (what, gas wasn’t high a year ago?). And in any event, why would high gasoline prices induce people to wait longer to shop, if the gas has to be consumed regardless?
A local toy store (the sort that was supposed to do well this year) just announced it is going out of business.
6 mo.s ago I was in there (they sell Sanrio & home furnishings as well) and all the toys were scary crap from China. They looked scary to me (even though this was before the recalls).
I knew when the news hit about the lead & so on that they were doomed.
They have been in business for many years … oh well.
I have noticed that no banks are advertising a HELOC for the holidays.
Our local bank was advertising a 1,000 dollar Xmas loan with a year to pay back, Maybe that’s the new affordability limit.
Florida Credit Union is still advertising a HELOC up to 15% (or was that 25%) above the value of your property.
They run these ads during the Dave Ramsey Show. Ironically, FCU is his ELP for the area. I want to shoot the woman who does the ad. Sooooo irritating.
Two points:
Don’t we effectively have an extra “week” of holiday sales this year because of the early Thanksgiving? I know it isn’t a full week compared to most years, but since Christmas is on a Tuesday, it does include an entire extra weekend. Do they adjust for this or something? Those declines seem very low considering there are 5 weekends between T-day and X-mas when most years there are only 4.
There was a chat on the Washington Post recently about high tech holiday gifts, HD TVs in particular. The chatter runs a website. He claimed that the TV manufacturers were completely determined not to lower prices after Christmas. My assumption is that he had to say this or risk all the ads being pulled from his website. But I wonder if there is any other analysis going on here. Could the TV makers be betting on folks paying more than they want because the change over is allegedly next year? I would expect most people in the market for big expensive HDTV’s to have cable and therefore not be effected by the switchover. And aren’t there additional TV sales in January before the superbowl anyway? This just doen’t make any sense to me.
This is the (very brief) exchange:
Guilford, Conn.: Will there be better deals on LCD 1080p televisions now, or after the first of the year?
Phillip Swann: Unlike last year, TV makers are going to hold the line on prices. Today’s price will probably be very close to the price of 3-6 months from now.
3-6 months? By then, those TV’s will be obsolete and the price will drop naturally, just like computers. Price drops won’t be because of any special “sale.”
But TV’s are a special case. Prices don’t drop after X-mas anyway; they stay high until after the Superbowl for obvious reasons. (and the NFL coverage has been pushing HD HD HD HD to the sheeple hard.)
Yawn. That’s because they still think people would continue to buy. It just takes one of them to drop prices (Vizio) and everyone will either match or be priced out.
Sorta like the FB trapped homedebtors.
The new mantra for all things “bling” : Either match or be priced out. .
..
Don’t they keep touting internet sales? How does that get affected by the weather?
Bad weather should make internet sales go up.
Subpoenaed…
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/13/business/13lend.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Excellent!
Maybe the tan man will end up with some stripes in his tan.
Would love to see how courts will rule on these cases . One borrower claimed that her income was raised from about 2k to 9k a month by the loan agent . I still wonder why that borrower was taking out a loan that would need that much income to qualify if the borrower didn’t know that the loan agent messed with the income . When the borrowers signed the applications,didn’t they notice the inflated income ,or did the loan agent change it after the fact ? Also, these cases seem to be based on the borrowers asserting that loan agents lied to them and apparently they didn’t read the loan documents .
Will the Courts expect the borrowers to read the loan documents, or will the loan contracts be deemed voidable if the income was fraudulent? Could borrowers be so stupid to really believe that a teaser rate was fixed in the real interest rate charged for a number of years ? I would be interested in how a Court of law or a jury would rule on that ,or does it go back to ,”You should of read your loan documents ?” Did lenders agents misrepresent the loan verbally ,or were borrowers not listening or capable of understanding without a lawyer ?
Wiz,
Anecdotal story:
A neighbor of ours, who was facing foreclosure in 1998 and made a living by singing in bars on occasion, told me she was getting this “great, new loan” where she’d only have to pay 1 1/2%. I told her that was not a market interest rate and that somehow, they’d tack that onto the principal (hadn’t heard of neg-am ARMs yet, but figured banks weren’t into giving their money away for free).
She vehemently denied it, so I called the lender to prove it to her. When the salesperson who was working with her heard what I had done, he screamed at her and told her that her idiot neighbor (a housewife!) had no idea what she was talking about. Who was she going to trust, an expert or some stupid neighbor?
Of course, she trusted the expert & a few year later admitted to me that I was right & the lender lied.
While many here blame the FBs (and many are very guilty, indeed!), I hold the lenders responsible for the utter destruction of our credit system. They were the ones who knew what they were doing.
“trapped in loans they can no longer afford”
That’s why there are no recourse loans. These crybabies move out and let the market correct itself.
Another poster here claims a primary purpose of the teaser-freezer is to trick hh’s into forfeiting their “no recourse” loans…
The plan seems so narrow in application that I’m leaning towards this being a blocking action against more draconian demo moves. Regardless, “too little too late” comes to mind.
From the article:
A recent analysis by The Chicago Reporter, an investigative newsmagazine, found that the Chicago area ranks first among United States metropolitan areas in the number of subprime loans issued to homeowners from 2004 through 2006.
Huh, I didn’t know that. I wonder if The Midwest Containment Clique knows that.
(Chicago, look out below!)
“He said the One Source broker did not tell him his low teaser rate — less than 2 percent — would jump after just one month.”
Translation….I didn’t read the contract.
“I kept asking them and checking on that,” Mr. Wagner said.
Translation…..I didn’t read the contract.
“Then it jumped to more than 7 percent and now it’s up to 8 percent plus and it’s going to jump again.”
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
So this is what passes for a Proffessor these days.
Since Illinois AG has already filed suit against the broker for fraud and consumer decception, this time the borrower may be in the right. Quite possibly, the broker really did fake the HUD disclosure statement.
No way would the AG move on the case against this broker and file if it didn’t have solid documentary evidence to back it up.
Looks like this may be one of those ‘lying scummy brokers’ that everyone here mentions.
House price confidence at lowest since 1998
http://tinyurl.com/ytz4wp
The mood acroos the pond is getting rather gloomy.
House sales across the UK have tumbled at the fastest pace ever recorded by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, as price expectations plummet and buyer demand dries up.
In its latest monthly survey, Rics said newly agreed sales are down for the fifth consecutive month, with heavy declines recorded across all regions in England and Wales.
as price expectations plummet
uh-oh, no more double-digit growth - that must be quite shocking after more than 10 years … apart from that, the UK crash hasn’t even started yet. After this important change in buyer psychology, it’s time we also get a clampdown on easy money in Europe (no sign of that yet, unfortunately).
Several years ago, I was looking into moving to London. I talked to some RE people, and somehow my contact info got into various databases, I suppose.
Out of the blue about two months ago someone from Foxton’s left a voice mail message to see if I was still interested in buying.
Smacks of desperation to call very, very stale leads across the pond.
First its too hot then its too cold. Goldilocks is one picky beyatch…
“Bill Martin, chief executive officer of ShopperTrak, blamed last week’s decline on “harsh weather mixed with the fact that procrastinating consumers still have two full weeks to complete their holiday shopping.”
Shoppertrak spokesman Aaron Martin didn’t know the last time sales declined for two consecutive weeks during the holiday season. The firm tracks shoppers who visit the 50,000 stores it monitors and estimates how much they spend.
Stores may further reduce prices, hurting profit margins, to lure bargain hunters. Target Corp., the second-largest U.S. discount chain, and J.C. Penney Co., the nation’s third-biggest department-store company, missed analysts’ sales estimates for November. CompUSA, the 23-year-old computer retailer, said Dec. 7 it will shut down after the holidays.”
Bloomberg
http://tinyurl.com/2d625h
You should see my inbox. Every retailer I have ever bought anything from and the deals are getting better by the day.
Same here, just wait until the first of the year.
On another note, our local Dodge dealer is offering a car at no extra charge if you’ll buy a 2008 quad cab pick-up.
Except those aren’t always the best deals. If you are REALLY shopping for two cars and are perfectly happy with the “free” car being offered… then maybe, but…
One or both of the cars usually have heavy factory incentives that the dealer keeps instead of you, you are required to buy the car at asking price, and the second car is stripped down.
Just sayin’
That’s like the local Ford guy offering a Berretta shotgun if you buy a pickup truck from him. Of course I live in North Louisiana, so this is considered a normal sales gimmick around here.
Roidy
Oh, come on, I grew up in northern Louisiana, and it’s not really like that. You’re just perpetuating stereotypes.
Oh hell, who am I kidding. I remember one year at summer camp we sneaked off and entertained ourselves by throwing old Mardi Gras beads up into the trees and then shooting them down from afar with a .22. Funny how that seemed perfectly normal at the time.
I remember that type of ad in the sports section of the local paper around hunting season when I was growing up in Northwest, Florida.
Cuts down on the ’splaining to the wife about how you got that new Browning. “Honey, it came with the new truck. I had to take it. It’s free!!”
No problemo in Moscow.
The stores are packed with people carrying numerous packages, stores are overflowing with goods, and the lines are deep at the counters. Wife and I are heading out this weekend to do some power shopping and will give you guys an update on Monday.
You posting from Moskva? Ochen horrorshow!
Someone should have paid attention to Vivian closing its flagship in NYC and opening it in Moscow a few years ago.
You just figured that out?
Maybe it is Moscow, Idaho (or is Moscow, Montana… I forget)
Moscow, Russia?
Any ideas why Russia now has more billionaires than any other country?
I even am getting ‘private’ deals from retailers I have never purchased from. They must have bought my credit score, net worth or income from someone else. What they don’t get is those scores are way high cause I don’t buy often. I am a quality over quantity guy.
You should see my inbox. Every retailer I have ever bought anything from and the deals are getting better by the day.
Agreed.
Couple local notes.
Super Stop & Shop attached to popular mall to close in Jan 08.
Pier 1 Imports adjacent to Stop & Shop not doing well.
Wife’s high end jewelry store way behind.
Went to Home Depot Tuesday looking for ice melt. Sold out! What does this stuff go bad? We’ve got 3-4 more months of winter and they’re out of ice melt.
Welcome to “just in time” retail deliveries. Or in this case “not in time.”
“You should see my inbox. Every retailer I have ever bought anything from and the deals are getting better by the day.”
Yep. I’m seeing this in catalogs also, and the SF Chronicle is full of department stores having sale after sale…and the discounts are huge…50%, 60%.
People must not be shopping this year. And I think all the swirl about an extra weekend until Christmas is BS. Everyone I know is spending less on the holidays this year.
Multiple Dave Ramsey callers in the last two weeks have asked about how to hold a reduced Christmas, or how to tactfully tell relatives they can’t afford Christmas, etc.
I don’t recall these kinds of questions last year…
J.C. Penney Co., the nation’s third-biggest department-store company, missed analysts’ sales estimates for November.
Maybe that’s why the discounts were so good last Sunday. I had one of those 20% off shopping passes, and ended up getting an entire men’s outfit for $100. Good quality clothes too. Izod pants, etc.
Jacket, sweater, shirt, pants. They had initial price cuts of 40- 60% then when I added the pass…oh baby!
My daughter was duly impressed by 40 to 50 percent discounts marked at the local Big 5 Sporting Goods outlet we visited yesterday evening.
Fortunately for the sellers of most of those garments, they only have to pay the children in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan who are making them a few pennies per hour to churn them out.
Something to think about as we scoop up our holiday “bargains.”
Child Labor
And don’t forget the Northern Marianas Islands. They employ Indonesian sweatshop women, then slap on the “Made in the USA” label because the islands are a US protectorate, and charge a premium.
Well I wasn’t the one who decided to destroy the USA garment industry, from the textile mills to the shops that construct the clothing. Philadelphia lost a lot of jobs due to clothing manufacturing being outsourced.
When Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan all put child labor laws in place, then maybe clothing jobs will return to the USA and we can all sleep easy at night.
Until then I’m going to continue to scoop up bargains.
If the children didn’t have jobs stitching clothes, they would likely be prostituting or worse. Idle hands are the devil’s workshop and all that.
“If the children didn’t have jobs stitching clothes, they would likely be prostituting or worse.”
Are you really this clueless, or do you just play one on a blog?
Are you really this humorless?
I commute through Tysons Corner, Virginia every day. During past years, the traffic around the two malls was horrendous at this time of year. This year is very different. The traffic is the same as any other time of the year. Something has changed this year in the land of bmw’s, mercedes and rovers.
Hey P-gal, I hadn’t pegged you as the type to wear men’s clothes. I know, I know it’s a gift
. btw - Real men don’t wear “outfits;” that’s such a chick word.
You’re right Mikey(2), it was a gift for my dear brother, not the BF, AKA El Cheapo Real.
Anyway even if I did buy an “outfit” for cheepy, he’d just return the clothes and use the funds to buy more gold coins.
BTW had dinner at Nooodi last nite, the Thai restaurant in Media. Have you been?
pg - Have not been to Noodi, but have heard good things. We go to Heng’s Thai in Springfield which is always wonderful, and since we get out so little, we hesitate to try something new, despite Noodi’s rep.
btw - Media also has a great Indian restaurant: Shere-E-Punjab. It’s byob; my wife and I have yet to exceed a $50 check. Food is fab. It’s catching on, so get a reservation.
OK
I predict an increase in Christmas sales in gift cards to supermarkets and other places that peddle basic necessities, not optional items.
Do heating oil companies, telephone companies and gas stations offer holiday gift cards?
Last year I paid my God-daughter’s January car payment as a Christmas gift. But then, she’s only 20 years old and is a full-time student (works nearly full-time also).
Anybody see Fast Money last night? D. Gartman said that Gentle Ben should be fired for his latest bumbling on CNBC. A couple times.
Didn’t see anyone calling for his head last August on natioanal tv when he burned the shorts with his compeletly useless drop of the Disco on Opex before the market opened (plus a leak the day before to his good buddies).
Guess Gartman was on the wrong side of the trade. Payback’s a beyatch!
I was pretty pissed yesterday myself and I had no position really affected by what they did. I just object to the fed running a confidence game on traders who provide liquidity to the markets. Burn us enough times and we may stop. Stop daytrading the econonmy, Bernanke.
time to dump something else from the black helicopter
RE: I was pretty pissed yesterday myself
Well, I’m pretty pissed today. Got a notice my health insurance is up $100.00 per month which is a 22% increase over last year’s premium.
These FED government chucks with their 2% inflation estimates fry my azz.
One more crybaby move down to get another expiration intervention?
Saw it. Also happened to see Mad Money. Loved the “Am I Diversified” segment where the caller owned Countrywide, Fannie May and Morgan Stanley. Was wondering which one of you HBBers was crank calling Cramer?
Seriously? What did Crammer say?
Probably something like, “Dude, you should throw in a little Wamu and Bkuna to complete that diversification. Booyah! Next call.”
Arabs spreading some more of that oil money…
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071213/dow_chemical_kuwait.html
Yep China and the Middle East aren’t content just to loan us money which we then depreciate. Now they want to own us. Can’t blame them, but is it really capitalism and free markets when governments own our companies. It’s worse than communism because it isn’t even your government that owns the business. This is also a nice backdoor way to have foreing countries lobby our politicians. K-street bonus’s for everyone. I say it’s getting really close to another Boston Tea Party.
It really amazes me that we still have not made energy conservation a priority. Every dollar we waste on oil fills the coffers of countries that are trying to undermine the US. Russia Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela. I mean is Exxon and Halliburton’s bottom line more important than our national security and financial health.
measton, I agree with you completely. I’m ready for that Boston Tea Party, except I think I’ll have it in Tampa Bay.
What do you mean “we.” We ride the subway and bus to get where we are going. More recently, I’ve been biking three days per week. We only drive our one small car 6,000 miles per year, mostly outside the city, and when it wears out we may not bother to replace it.
We live in a small rowhouse, with a thermostat that lets the temperature drop during the day when we are out and at night when we are under the covers. The heat runs twice a day, to warm things up before we wake up and before we come home.
No AC. Nearly all compact flourescent. A neighbor already has solar providing 100% of net electricity use; we’ll follow suit when the price drops.
Yes, I grew up in the 1970s. It was fun interlude while it lasted, but unfortunately my youth is returning.
You’re a man after my own heart, WT.
A car always looked like a 1.5 ton ankle weight to me. I like my freedom.
“What do you mean ‘we.’”
Agreed. Some of us don’t need the Federal government to tell us how to set our priorities.
Every time I pay at the pump, I think to myself, wouldn’t be great if this money were staying in the economy. What about he multiplier effect on my $35.
House Energy Bill is to be voted on in Senate today, Dec 13.
Martinez in Florida and Ensign in Nevada are the two Senators who just can’t so NO to oil money support.
This is a great bill. Call your Senator and tell him to VOTE yes.
Decemeber 13, Senate votes on Energy Bill HR-6
On December 6th the House passed the Energy Independence and Security Act, H.R. 6, which would significantly reduce oil consumption in this country. I strongly urge you to vote for the bill when the Senate votes in the coming days. The energy bill you pass should significantly increase CAFE standards, make alternative fuels widely available, and close tax loopholes for big oil companies.
We need to do a better job at reducing our oil consumption. We cannot afford cars that get too few miles per gallon of gas. We cannot afford to keep alternative fuels out of the tanks of cars that can use them. And big oil doesn’t need billions in tax breaks when they made half a trillion dollars in profits over the last six years.
The energy bill makes good sense. By reducing our oil consumption, it will spur innovation and growth in our economy, increase our national security, and reduce the threat of pollution and global warming. These are all good things for the country.
People are still buying gas guzzlers. If gas went to $4/gal they’d still buy them. IMO the big three’s (ford, gm, chryler)hold on congress is what keeps us dependent on oil. SUV’s have the largest profit margin, thats why they were exempt from epa/mpg standards.
Gasoline, in 1940, was 16cents a gallon, and wages in San Diego were 25 cents an hour! Oil was $3 a barrel.
Now minimum wage is $6, 24 times the wage of 1940, 24 x 16cents equals $3.84 a gallon. And gasoline is cheaper than that today. $3×24 equal $72 a barrel, and oil is now at$95.
Oil is more expensive , but gasoline is less expensive in relation to 1940 wages.
a stamp was 3 cents, and should now be 72 cents .
But you may disagree with those figures.
When we sell dollars to someone we are selling claims on assets.
Why should anyone be surprised when these claims are cashed in?
Correct and as the dollar gets weaker and weaker, in order to protect their claims, any tangible assets will be bought.
Dow Chemical Sells 50 Percent of 5 Global Businesses to Kuwaiti Company for $9.5 Billion
I am not sure why people are so worried about them buying up businesses. They want to protect their money; it seems to make sense that they would want these newly-purchased companies to be well-run and profitable. If they were really out to get us they could get a lot more bang for the buck by purchasing something other than 50% of an old stodgy company for $9.5 billion.
It appears as though Americans prefer to be fleeced by white Christian CEOs.
1. No one cares if individual foreigners buy our companies, but when the state does it, that’s another matter. It’s called communism when the states run all of the corporations. What is it called when foreign countries do it.
CEO’s can be sent to prison, what do we do when China or Saudi’s commit security fraud, or steals intellectual property.
Do you really want Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, Venezuela running our companies and buying off our politicians via those companies.
Posters here howl that the USD is a fiat currency created out of thin air and not backed by anything. I contend that the USD is backed by EVERYTHING, everything that it can be exchanged for - which is most everything.
These “thin air” dollars are real, as real as the assets - the goods and services - they can be exchanged for.
Seems like the “thin air” dollars are in a trend of decreasing realism for the moment…
The “thin air dollars” are not real assets. The piece of paper is a promissory note. That some merchants and individuals accept them in exchange for tangible goods and services is great.
But I trust President George Washington’s comments about paper currency more than I trust a Washington bill. President Washington was probably the richest man in the US at the time owning 1% of all assets in this new country.
M. Otto writing to Vergennes on February 10, 1787, says of Washington’s losses: ” I have before me a letter of this honoured man in which he complains of being obliged to sell at a rate of twenty for one the certificates which Congress sent to him in payment for the arrearages due him.”
If President Washington did not trust paper from the government, why should I?
Fire sales not too far off by companies holding on by a thread,hmmm? How much trauma can an economy and dollar take if it was relying on the margin of consumer credit addiction?
It looks like the retail numbers are out on the street ’cause the futures are tanking
All the major markets are down big starting with Japan. Looks like we are going to get some big red candles this year for Christmas.
Yeah. Yesterday’s save or not, it’s over. I posted something the other day from Market Semiotics (Dorsey) to the effect that after Dec. 11, your next safe “buying opportunity” might come in 2010.
Good summary of it here
http://www.thekirkreport.com
(about the Xmas present from the Fed)
I don’t think this is a proper interpretation of the intended signal…
Bernanke’s Christmas Gift
You may not have realized it, but the Fed just gave everyone their Christmas gift - a short-cover scare so that the smart money can reposition (i.e. go short) and get more defensive, before things really get bad. And, from what I saw on my screens today, reposition they did.
The only thing keeping the market intact is hope for a Santa Clause rally. I really hope that comes true - I have more stocks/etfs to sell.
Be defensive, hold lots of cash, don’t be complacent with your longs, protect your assets, and if you’re so inclined, look for strength to short.
You guys have far less faith in the PPT than I do. Did you notice how yesterday’s day-long selloff ended with a nice deus ex machina upswing? How many other days like that have there been in the last two years? Many many more than any statistical model known to modern finance could explain away as due to competitive forces.
Short covering after the plunge. Nobody wanted to take a chance on holding overnight and Bennie doing something crazy the next day.
Interesting thought there. It seems like “intervention risk” is running quite high at the moment, which should in principle create an “intervention risk discount” in asset prices. (This gets to TxChick’s comments about the role of traders in supplying liquidity…)
“intervention risk” And when that fails? Reality takes over.
I think it’s an “intervention risk premium,” PB.
Maybe. There is a lot of data coming out, retail sales, bank earnings, ppi-cpi, etc. Shaping up to be another bad day.
The PPT was up to its old self today. From -150 to +40, a 200 point swing. They are getting to be pretty reliable lately.
I guess the street is not aware of the coordinated effort to supply liquidity, then?
Shouldn’t a move to cap the LIBOR be bullish for (nominal) share prices?
I don’t understand how this line of reasoning is fooling anyone any more.
Troubled Financial Institution: “Help! Help! We’re so deep in debt that we’re about to go under! And all our margins were just called because our creditors deem our reserves insufficient to cover our recently decreased rating assets.”
Uncle Ben: “Not to worry! We’ll give you an even bigger loan!”
TFI: “Thank God, we’re saved!”
I mean some times I wonder what planet I’m on. The massive debt and over leveraging is what got them in trouble in the first place. And more of the same is going to get them out of their mess……how?
I guess they subscribe to the ‘hair of the dog that bit them’ school of economic management.
Looks like the left coast is gonna raise taxes…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/12/MN46TT0NB.DTL&tsp=1
I doubt it. The Chicago area is heavily Dem and they don’t have the guts to do it. Cook county is looking at a 10% across the board budget cut. Board pretty much stated if the departments won’t do it, the board will do it for them.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/694861,CST-NWS-stroger13.article
More perps headed off to the big house.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/695018,CST-NWS-mortgage13.article
I am shocked that a former Arthur Anderson accountant has been indicted for mortgage fraud. SHOCKED.
Ya gotta wonder how many of those criminals migrated to bigger and better things.
I am so happy that I left California and that I no longer have to fear the taxhappy politicos in that State (my home for over thirty years).
Unlike most parasites, politicians don’t seem able to comprehend the idea that you don’t kill your host (the taxpayer).
If they took care of the illegal immigrant problem, I imagine we wouldn’t have a budget deficit.
Before anyone flames me, this can be handled in different ways. Two I prefer are:
1. Enact laws, like Arizona, penalizing those who employ illegals.
2. If we’re to allow illegals here, make their employers pay for:
-education of minors & adult ed
-healthcare for immigrant workers and their families
-employers pay all legal expenses (including prison, etc.) if their employees are arrested for illegal activities
That way, the taxpayers aren’t subsidizing the employers for hiring cheap labor (and bringing our wages down on top of it).
Is coordinated intervention legal? Seems as though BB just took a step in the direction of world govt, in the form of coordinated (inflation) taxation…
Disclaimers:
1) I do not claim to be a constitutional scholar.
2) I am merely asking a question, and offering an observation, not spouting any ideology here.
3) I realize a precedent may have been set at 9/11, but unless I missed some news, there have not been any recent terrorist attacks on the U.S., and I also do not recall any announcement of the precedent.
Central Banks Launch
Effort to Free Up Credit
Fed Extends $40 Billion;
Weak Effect of Rate Cuts
Spurs Unusual Measures
By GREG IP and JOELLEN PERRY
December 13, 2007; Page A1
In the biggest coordinated show of international financial force since Sept. 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve yesterday joined four other central banks in a plan aimed at coaxing banks to lend more readily at a time when fear has seized up world credit markets.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119746804568523549.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
There is no free launch.
PB, I don’t think the banks are going to lend money the way they used to. Not right now, anyway. Confidence needs to be restored. That means subpeonas, investigations, trials, punishment of the guilty, etc. It’s a free-for-all right now. Not only that, but reading about the Florida fund with 2 billion of crap in it was depressing. They’re not going to sell it off. Ridiculous. Sell it or mark it to zero and let the chips fall where they may. We need a massive cleanout.
“That means subpeonas, investigations, trials, punishment of the guilty, etc.”
Not necessary. All that needs to happen is a flood of liquidity needs to be dumped in the money markets. Somebody will pick up the free cash and create a new bubble, and it will all be good again.
“Somebody will pick up the free cash and create a new bubble, and it will all be good again.”
So once again I ask:
O.K., what has happened is this: You’ve had millions of people buy “assets” worth +$100,000 /+ $200,000 / + $300,000 more than they are currently (& slowly declining) worth. Also, you had millions of people borrow (and spend) +$50,000 / +$100,00 / +$200,000 via their home ATM machine.
So now, in real time…Assets (are not going up in value) and Consumers ( are not able to expand (or extract) their credit
So, what’s the next… liquidity distribution game? …and when does it start?
“…and when does it start?”
Yesterday…
all my troubles seemed so far away
now it seems as though they’re back today,
oh I believe in yes-terday.
LOL!!! Great one, PB!
And what presidential candidate is speaking up about all the shenanigans and fiasco-ladened dealings that banks and Wall Street has championed?
And he might actually have a chance if he was serious about individual freedom (gay rights, reproductive rights, etc.).
Totally agree, Anon C.
If RP were a true libertarian (keep the govt out of people’s personal lives), I think he’d win. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to see this misalignment.
Wouldn’t it be easier for them to coordinate their efforts if they only had one currency to worry about? Perhaps that’ll be their talking point in a year or so?
One currency & one CB — that would make it much easier to tax the serfs, er, I mean, savers…
Pensacola, FL
You have arrived! Finally, you may actually need that big honking SUV that has never left the payment. Better act now, before seller changes their mind about selling! If you listen carefully, you can hear banjos playing.
http://tinyurl.com/36kvmr
I like how the property has “most utilities in the area”. Nothing like reading by candlelight in your new house. I wonder how much it would cost to bring utilities to this lot.
“Less than six miles from I-10.”
Get some of that valuable “six miles from I-10″ land. Oh, yeah! LMAO!
Is anybody working on a Jerky Boyz movie du jour for the real estate hijinx we are witnessing daily?
“Hello, I would like to buy the house in the realtor website. Does it have enough floor space to fit a large collection of my potted plants and water access?”
Term Auction Facility
http://www.stockmania.com/index.php?showimage=112
Sounds like the banks weren’t using the discount window so they gave it another name.
It came a pawn, the midnight clear…
Too early in the day to laugh that hard — I am going to wake up the whole neighborhood!!!
Thanks for your support. You guys keep me doing these things.
Excellent, kahunabear!
I’m using this to explain what’s going on to my MIL. Tried to explain it to her today, but she didn’t seem to get it. You nailed it!
BB’s central bank assault has one feature that scares me
The banks can borrow annonymously and put up toilet paper as collateral.
The question is can they 30 days later say to the FED oops we don’t have the money to pay you back so you keep the toilet paper collateral.
ie is this a way for the FED to outright purchase the crap off of the banks balance sheets without the average US citizen knowing about it.
“The banks can borrow annonymously and put up toilet paper as collateral.”
kahunabear inadvertendly missed that detail in his daily toon (see post above yours)…
But I concur. It seems like CBs may be inadvertently turning their balance sheets into toxic waste dumps (or alternatively, providing an artificial prop under McMansion prices)…
As the Federal Reserve did in August, these loans will become Evergreen’ and constantly rolled over.
There is a whole lot of rollin’ over goin’ on…
(Isn’t this the basic purpose of the teaser-freezer & the Superfund SIV?)
Pass the turd…
The Mother of All Bad Ideas…
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/schiff120707.html
Peter Schiff stuff is always great. It’s interesting to go back and read the stuff he was writing two years ago when he was doing his best to convince anyone who would listen that there was RE bubble. For instance:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/schiff042005.html
Houston, we have a problem…
“Wholesale prices rose 3.2% in November - the largest change since 3.5% in August 1973 — as energy price growth hit a new record, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Wholesale energy prices rose 14.1% in November, beating the prior record growth of 13.4% in January 1990. Growth in gasoline prices of 34.8% also hit a new record - beating the prior record of 28.8% in April 1999. Food prices had 0.0% growth, compared with a gain of 1.0% in the prior month. Excluding volatile food and energy, the core producer prices grew 0.4%. Economists had expected November’s PPI to grow 1.8% and the core to grow 0.2%”
What does “the core producer prices grew 0.4%” mean?
if that rate were constant, an annual rate of around 5%?
Hello all,
I am thinking about buying some land to build a house on and suspect land prices are on the way down as well. Im not looking to but the land as an investment, just as a place to live. 10 or more acres. Your thoughts?
Don’t buy yet.
Ditto.
I’m in the same boat. I want closer to five acres but have no idea to track to price of farmland.
For such a small piece of property:
Look at the IRS real estate sales sites for seized property- The IRS has some good deals.
contact International Papers land sales division (they are trying to 3MM acres)
Contact a title agent in the selected area. They know the properties for sale and/or going into foreclosure.
It depends on where you are planning to buy. I have heard and it is logical that land prices fall faster than housing prices. How much have land prices dropped where you are planning to buy? If they have already had a big drop and you are not looking for an investment then it could be a good thing to do if it is important to you.
where are u at Bob? some places the prices will be stickier on the way down and some won’t fall as much.
Im outside greenville Sc. seems to be going for 3500 per acre
Bob,
Whatever you do, do NOT go through a real estate lady. (You think URBAN realtwhores are hungry?) Get out and look at areas you are interested in, talk to (several) local property owners including the one adjacent to the piece you are considering. Ask them what parcels might be for sale and for how much. (Churches, bars, general stores are good places to introduce yourself and ask questions.) Look in the community newspaper for private land sales. Check out the county land auctions (unpaid property tax,) and educate yourself about historical values, natural disasters, obscure easements, zoning, and treaties etc. Be sure to consider water source and winter access carefully.
Truly rural land is remarkably stable in price…despite commercial attempts to inflate it every few years or so. In my area (rural central CA.,) the real estate price is currently 12-17K+/undeveloped acre. The actual price is between 800 and 2K/undeveloped acre. What you pay is largely a function of how many middlemen are involved in the transaction and how clueless you appear to them.
PS. 10 acres is not a lot of land. Buy as much around you as you possibly can, and remember that if there is trouble with “the neighbors” you can’t just call the police to come and deal with them. Go Green and good luck!
Be aware RAW land may not be your biggest expense…
My sister & BIL bought 40 rural acres for almost nothing.
But…
Cost of driling a well is higher than they paid for the land, and before the electric company will run wires they require that there be a foundation in the ground (as proof of sincere intention to build)
AP
Retail Sales Surge in November
Thursday December 13, 8:40 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Retail Sales Surge by the Biggest Amount in 6 Months
WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumers put aside worries about the weak economy in November to storm into the shopping malls, pushing up retail sales by the largest amount in six months.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail sales surged by 1.2 percent last month, double the gain that economists had expected. That followed a much weaker 0.2 percent rise in retail sales in October.
Half of the November increase came from a big jump in gasoline pump prices and therefore was not seen as a sign of strength in consumer demand. But there were widespread gains across a number of other areas from department stores to appliance and furniture stores.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071213/economy.html
… umm… no shit, sherlock.
Did they really “storm” into the malls?
Im in South Carolina right outside of Greenville. We are tired of Suburban life and want to buy a piece of land to build on in the future. I also have no Idea how to track land prices. Thats why I figured I would post a question here. The people on this blog are pretty sharp. I was also wondering, anyone know were the cheapest land in the country is?
Someplace no one wants to live and where the land has no other profitable use. If cheap is all you care about, look for someplace with freezing cold winters, blazing hot summers, no water, no convinient amenities and bad schools, medical care, etc.
But that isn’t really what you are looking for is it?
Hah! You’ve just described most of New Mexico! Welcome to paradise!
Try Northern Canada. I believe you can still get a free homestead north of the arctic circle.
How about northwestern Appalachians - cold, but pretty and plenty of water. Imagine an arc going from northern West Virginia through PA northeast to upstate New York. Probably find something cheaper up there than in, say, KY-TN.
Upstate NY, IMO, is gorgeous, but do check out property taxes and find out how recently and how often rates have been raised.
Land and/or houses can be comparatively cheap, but they can eat you alive with property taxes.
Rut Roh…
A Nice Lump Of Inflationary Coal hits the stockings of the stockies. Biggest jump in 23 years. Ouch.
Y’all were right about why it was only a quarter point.
Maybe the grasshoppers will stop fiddling in 2008.
SD range pricing turns hilarious… Price it for what you “know” in your heart that it is worth — and ignore them comps!
1438 CAMINO ZALCE, SD - Linda Vista, CA 92111**
Bedrooms: 3
Full Baths: 2
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 1,450
Lot Size: N/A
Year Built: 1980
Listing Date: 10/30/07
On Market: 44 days
Type: CONDO/TH
Seller will enteretain offers of $449,999-499,876. Gorgeous,spacious townhome in beautifully landscaped community in the heart of san diego.Minutes to beaches and ocean. Can feel the ocean air!Sits up above fashion valley with great views of the valley!Walking distance to upscale fashion valley mall,trolley, and golf course
ZipRealty Price Track:
Price Increased: 10/31/07 — $449,000 to $449,999
On Market: 44 days
Clients who viewed this home also viewed:
3514 MARLESTA DRIVE
SD - Linda Vista, CA 92111
Beds/Baths: 3/2 Sq.Ft: 1,446
$415,000
3939 EAGLE ST #306
SD - Mission Hills, CA 92103
Beds/Baths: 3/3 Sq.Ft: 1,266
$425,000
4222 LOMA RIVIERA LN
SD - Old Town, CA 92110
Beds/Baths: 3/2 Sq.Ft: 1,400
$389,000
This reflects two things:
1) An understanding that the “Buy now or be priced out forever” mentality was a significant factor in the herd stampede to buy houses during the boom.
2) An utter lack of understanding of the current uncertain market conditions as indicated by the comps.
I’m sure the sellers would love the stampede to start again, but a new herd is forming, as much of the old one did go off the .
sorry, bungled the link:
“I’m sure the sellers would love the stampede to start again, but a new herd is forming, as much of the old one did go off the “Buffalo Jump”.
MLS won’t block online listings
Non-traditional broker deals will be included
“An organization that helps market homes listed for sale in the Milwaukee area has agreed not to block the Internet display of properties being sold through a non-traditional, lower-cost brokerage arrangement, a government agency said Wednesday.”
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=696255
The DOJ has been working on this for a while, too.
Absolutely a monopoly via the MLS system.
Over here in San Dimas, Ca. there’s a really nice neighborhood, 700k-2mil houses. Behind them, actual canyons, lots of trees, some wildlife, streams, etc. A builder bought the land, cleared the tree planned on million dollar homes. In the middle of the night, tractors were pulled out with all the other heavy equipment. Now its a nice dirt patch, trees gone. Sorry, can’t remember the details of who the builder was, SGV Tribune ran the story on Sunday.
Razing trees? But I thought everyone in San Dimas was supposed to be excellent to each other?
(sorry)
Wyld Stallions!!
“Buy, buy, buy!!! Sell, sell, sell!!!”
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications
Short covering kicked in on the opening bell today…
LOL!
Glad you caught that one, chelovyek
Could any chartists please interpret this bizarro pattern of price moves?
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=INDU&sid=1643&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=7&time=3
Here is another good one — suggests inflation risk premium containment is working…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=%24TNX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=3&freq=7&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=tyx&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
BB put strike price currently set to DJIA = 13,400?
I have the feeling that tomorrow morning will be a great time to buy the dip…
One thing is sure, the harder they try to keep this turd floating, the lower it will sink.
It looks to my untrained eye like this Big Bang is going to happen sooner rather than later…
DAVID CALLAWAY
Wall Street heading toward its own Big Bang
Commentary: Credit crisis will drag last elitist enclave into new century
By David Callaway, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Dec. 13, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The escalating credit crisis, now a full-blown threat to the U.S. economy, might have a silver lining after all.
For when it’s all over, sometime early to mid-next year, a new leadership will have begun to emerge in our financial industry that no longer pays lip service to the global markets but is indeed born of them.
Call it Wall Street’s “Big Bang.” That’s the term given to the wrenching change in the City of London 21 years ago when the government essentially cracked the local cartel of merchant banks that had dominated British finance for decades and forced international competition to emerge.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-crisis-trigger-wall-streets/story.aspx?guid=%7BFFAB93F2%2DED77%2D4B71%2DB993%2DED5DCEF132F0%7D&dist=TNMostRead
“For when it’s all over, sometime early to mid-next year…”
This is as funny as Realtors saying ‘We have hit the bottom.”
Born of them? Is that what all of this about? To unite the global markets? We are one. We are borg!
Check out Drudge: AND NOW… INFLATION!
Why do people do what everyone else does?
http://happybrainstorming.com/social-proof-or-why-we-like-what-other-people-like/
That was great. Loved the video with the violinist. Amazing that more people didn’t just sit/stand and take a listen. The only one who was there for an significant amount of time was a woman who knew who he was.
‘Super-SIV’ fund in doubt: WSJ
By John Spence
Last update: 8:07 a.m. EST Dec. 13, 2007
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/super-siv-fund-doubt-wsj/story.aspx?guid=%7B867BEE95%2D40F9%2D4130%2D89C6%2DB0A3D2D0ED55%7D
Is it just me or is everything that gets proposed to help these situations involve MORE DEBT ! Or shifting around debt ! Debt, debt, debt… that is what got us into this mess ! Why do we want more of it ?
I think its time that we started letting these banks with their high paid CEOs and record earnings work their way out of these situations on their own. Why is it when banks are making record profits, its for the investors and when they bleed red we are supposed to rescue them ?
“Or shifting around debt !”
Or rolling over of debt?
Companies keep wanting to move debt around like its a hot potato. That won’t work ! Companies have to keep their debt and deal with it ! You can’t build a business expecting someone else to own your debt. Maybe they are just now figuring that out !
Its funny how the stock market doesn’t see this for what it is - just the start of a very long and painful process. It is going to take years and years to get this cleaned up. It took years to accumulate this debt and it always takes longer to pay things off than to spend.
THE PARTY IS OVER ! Quit looking around expecting someone else to clean up the mess. Its time for black coffee, sober thought and some hard ugly work. Lets roll up our sleeves and get down to it already !
The sad thing about a game of musical chairs is that someone has no chair to sit in when the music stops…
Are we sure there are any chairs at all?
Subprime: We Have Nothing to Fear But Forbearance
posted on: December 12, 2007
“Let them fail; let everybody fail! I made my fortune when I had nothing to start with, by myself and my own ideas. Let other people do the same thing. If I lose everything in the collapse of our financial structure, I will start in at the beginning and build it up again.”
– Henry Ford, February 11, 1933 –
http://seekingalpha.com/article/57042-subprime-we-have-nothing-to-fear-but-forbearance
This from the man who provided this option to his customers:
“You can have it any color you want…as long as it’s black”
I miss the old AT&T with two phone choices: wall or desk… in beige
Boy do I ever miss the old ATT.
I cried when the Feds broke up what was excellent phone service at reasonable rates.
Now you can’t even get “information.”
Agree. For all the whining “free-market capitalists” do, I think many industries were far better when they were regulated than now (phones & airlines, to name a couple).
I have no verification of any of these yet, but this is one of the largest one day postings I have ever seen.
The following is just California:
Abbott Laboratories is laying off about 700 employees at its factory at 26531 Ynez Road in Temecula.
Altera Corp. in San Jose committed to a plan to restructure its operations including the termination or restructuring of certain office leases and the elimination of certain employee positions. Impacted office lease locations in the U.S. include 9330 Scranton Road, Suite 400, in San Diego and 110 Cooper St., Suite 201, in Santa Cruz. Management plans to eliminate approximately 65 positions from the company’s approximately 2,700-person headcount, including 17 employee positions eliminated earlier in the quarter. Nearly all of the changes will occur by the end of the year.
Carmel Mountain (Pacific Theatre) is laying off 30 employees at 11620 Carmel Mountain Road in San Diego on Dec. 13.
Gaslamp (Pacific Theatres) is laying off 40 employees at 701 5th Ave. in San Diego on Dec. 13.
Grossmont (Pacific Theatres) is laying off 59 employees at 5500 Grossmont Center Drive in La Mesa on Dec. 13.
Rohnert Park (Pacific Theatres) is laying off 48 employees at 555 Rohnert Park Expressway West in Rohnert Park on Dec. 13.
Town Square (Pacific Theatres) is laying off 47 employees at 4665 Clairemont Drive in San Diego on Dec. 13.
Valley Plaza (Pacific Theatres) is laying off 93 employees at 2000 Wible Road in Bakersfield on Dec. 13.
Cisco Systems Inc. has started laying off 92 employees at 510 McCarthy Blvd. in Milpitas and 86 employees at 3700 Cisco Way in San Jose.
Disney Mobile has started laying off 122 employees at 5161 Lankershim Blvd. in North Hollywood.
Electronic Arts Inc. is laying off 57 employees at 209 Redwood Shores Parkway in Redwood City on Dec. 31.
Encore Credit has started laying off 70 employees at 1833 Alton Parkway in Irvine.
First Bank is closing down and laying off 83 employees at 1 Technology Drive, Bldg A in Irvine on Dec. 31.
Fremont Investment & Loan is laying off 43 employees at 2727 E. Imperial Highway in Brea on Dec. 17.
Gateway Inc. is laying off 33 employees at 14350 Myford Road and 28 employees at 7565 Irvine Center Drive in Irvine on Dec. 15.
GHN Neon Inc. is laying off 9 employees at 7472 Chapman Ave. in Garden Grove on Dec. 21.
Goal Financial LLC has started laying off 68 employees at 9477 Waples St. in Mira Mesa.
Green Team/Zanker of Sunnyvale is closing down and laying off 80 employees at 301 Carl Road in Sunnyvale on Dec. 31.
Guardian Industries Corp. has started closing down and laying off 43 employees at 1901 Raymer Ave. in Fullerton.
Harwood Products Inc. is laying off 70 employees at 14210 Branscomb Road in Branscomb on Dec. 22.
Hausten LLC is closing down and laying off 328 employees at 2149 Fenton Parkway in Camino De La Siesta on Dec. 31.
Johns Manville Willows Plant is laying off 60 employees at 5916 County Road 49 in Willows on Dec. 23.
JPMorgan Chase Non-Prime Retail is closing down and laying off 91 employees at 4200 Concours, Floor 3 in Ontario on Dec. 15.
Kmart Corp. is closing down and laying off 78 employees at 333 S. Hacienda Blvd. in the City Of Industry and 71 employees at 51 E. Tierra Rajada Road in Simi Valley on Dec. 20.
Lennox Hearth Products Inc. is laying off 180 employees at 2520 Industry Way in Lynwood on Dec. 14.
Maxim Integrated Products Inc. is laying off 104 employees at 3725 N. First St. in San Jose on Dec. 16.
Mercedes Benz of Escondido is closing down and laying off 162 employees at 1101 West Ninth Ave. in Escondido on Dec. 18.
Monster Cable Products Inc. has started laying off 50 employees at 450, 455 and 480 Valley Drive in Brisbane.
Paul Financial LLC has started laying off 43 employees at 1401 Los Gamos in San Rafael.
Sky Chefs Inc. has started laying off 140 employees at 7000 World Way West, in Los Angeles.
Standard Pacific Homes has started closing down and laying off 34 employees at 900 E. Hamilton Ave., Suite 200 in Campbell.
Wells Fargo Home and Consumer Finance Group is laying off 38 employees at 2525 N. Main St. in Santa Ana, 50 employees at 5540 Fermi Court in Carlsbad, and 58 employees at 21680 Gateway Center Drive in Diamond Bar on Dec. 24.
Windwar Farming Company has started closing down and laying off 243 employees at 18911 Portola Drive, Suite A in Salinas.
WMC-GEMB Mortgage Corp. is laying off 344 employees at 3100 Thornton Ave. in Burbank on Dec. 29.
The length of your post is reminiscent of the length of the foreclosure lists that have recently appeared in my e-mail.
What is the story with PAcific Theatres??
It could be company reorganization or the company can be taken over or it could be true layoffs. This is what companies file with states under Mass Action Notifications, they can file these even if not planning on these actions. Until these reports are confirmed in the media there is no corroboration.
Thanks!
Must be people don’t have money to go to the show or it’s easier to rent a video ,or people can’t afford to pay 5 bucks for popcorn anymore .
“Apocalypse Now”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/schultz-sees-apocalypse-now/story.aspx?guid=%7BB4657333%2DB68C%2D4A34%2DA493%2D266821FC09AB%7D&dist=SecMostMailed
Ben, in case you didn’t see I mentioned last night: you need to post a “Bedtime Bits Bucket” before checking out for the day. Too much success…
How about a “Bedtime Intervention and Bubble Bath Dreamscape”
wake up to a Brave New World….
This would be a great idea for us peeps over in Europe who don’t want to post at the end of the last day’s thread only to have it ignored by the next day’s HBB’ers!
And west-coasters who work late at night!
Analysts late to the alarm
NEW YORK — Throughout 2006, T. Rowe Price analyst Susan Troll watched in horror as one risky mortgage deal after another hit the market. She became alarmed by a widening trend: mortgage lenders issuing home loans of poor quality that were then packaged and sold by Wall Street investment banks to investors worldwide.
Finally, she could stand it no longer. In e-mails and meetings with money managers, Troll urged T. Rowe Price to sell its portfolio of subprime mortgage securities.
“I just was amazed at how quickly these deals were getting done when you see constant deterioration in credit quality,” she said. “I just said, ‘It can’t keep going up at this rate.’ It just didn’t make sense.” …
“I’ve spent a lot of time with equity guys just trying to explain the markets — why they’re so dislocated, why they’re so bad, why this market is not coming back anytime soon in the form that it was and trying to help them value the securities that all these banks and insurance companies and everyone has on their books.”…
But he did not start downgrading the shares of banks and Wall Street brokerages to “sell” until July, when some had already begun to fall. (He recently upgraded some to “buy,” saying their lower prices make them a good value.) Most of his peers maintained their neutral ratings on Wall Street firms, several of which have fallen nearly 40 percent this year.
Asked why he did not downgrade them sooner, Bove spoke of the pressure to always be right, the difficulty of going against the tide and the need to hang on to clients, which include mutual funds and other money managers.
“You live or die based upon your stock picks,” he said. “If you think everything’s terrible, but everybody else thinks things are great and they keep buying the stocks, and you put a sell too early, then people are just going to walk away from you . . . I’ve got to get paid also, and if I start putting sells on companies when the market momentum is forward, basically, people aren’t going to pay me.”
Washington Post
http://tinyurl.com/2eexd2
“I’ve got to get paid also” LOL You get what you paid for.
I was talking to my brother in Phoenix yesterday who said the pawn shop business has never been better. He said his inventory has doubled in the past five months.
What’s in your wallet Mr.In-Debt?
Who is he going to sell it all to?
Gold and silver I can see, but electronics and cars are dropping like a rock this month…
I should be a criminal!
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) — Sixty-one percent of defendants sentenced in the Bush administration’s crackdown on corporate fraud spent no more than two years in jail, escaping the stiff penalties given WorldCom Inc. and Enron Corp. executives.
In the past five years, 28 percent of those sentenced got no prison time and 6 percent received 10 years or more, according to a review of 1,236 white-collar convictions. Former WorldCom Chief Executive Officer Bernard Ebbers is serving 25 years and ex-Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling 24.
“Sentencing white-collar defendants to two years or less does not send a strong deterrent message,” says Joshua Hochberg, who ran the U.S. Justice Department’s criminal fraud section from 1998 to 2005. “On the other hand, convicting a lot of defendants sends the message that you will be caught and there are consequences.” …
Alas, “You have been found guilty and you will now step forward for your ceremonial slap on the wrist.”
still a lot better than the Netherlands; up to know I know of NO Dutch corporate crook who had to spend time in jail for financial fraud, even if we are talking about billion dollar affairs. Usually the judge rules that they were already punished heavily by the bad publicity, or if they were really bad guys they have to do 40 hours community service or something (which of course they don’t turn up for, nobody checks).
On the other side, people sometimes have to spend more than a month in prison for stealing something worth a few dollars from a shop…
Why are you bitching? Isn’t it that kind of attitude that made your country great?
in the times that my country was great (long ago …) people who f**ed up big time were usually severely punished (even if they were at the top) instead of highly rewarded like now. In the last 20 years or so with this new attitude it was steadily downhill for at least 95% of the population.
Auto Sales To Hit Bottom in 2008
NORTHVILLE, Mich. — The gloomy storm clouds hovering over the U.S. automobile market will not dissipate in the next twelve months. Based on expectations for demand-side fundamentals, CSM Worldwide is forecasting light-vehicle sales to descend to a 10-year low of 15.8 million units in 2008.
“The market will linger in a cyclical contraction phase,” said Joseph Barker, senior manager of North American Sales Forecasting. “The downturn was triggered by diminished consumer purchasing power, depleted pent-up demand, and structural changes at Detroit automakers.”
Rising adjustable-rate mortgage expenditures, falling home values and surging energy costs (including gasoline) are draining discretionary income and straining the consumer psyche. In a climate of rising prices, inflation is a threat that could be even more taxing on consumers next year. Furthermore, CSM is concerned that the negative forces rattling the financial markets on Wall Street could spread to Main Street, forcing consumers to curb spending.
RE: Auto Sales
Ford and Chrysler are the Packards and DeSoto’s of the 21st century.
They will be gone in 5 years as a result of their inefficient engineering & design, plus pension, and health insurance costs for the legions of boomer retirees.
Big “3″ will become Toyota, GM, and Honda.
I humbly disagree.
GM is the worlds number one auto maker and, outside of the US market, it is getting stronger. By the time this is through unwinding they may no longer make cars in the states, but that is years away.
Enthusiasm for central bank action wanes
By Neil Dennis
Published: December 13 2007 11:54 | Last updated: December 13 2007 15:12
Global equities fell sharply on Thursday as the enthusiasm that met Wednesday’s central bank liquidity announcements wilted, and robust US data undermined interest rate hopes.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02cc10ce-a970-11dc-aa8b-0000779fd2ac.html
“Abandon rate cut hopes, all ye who invest here.”
Low UE + inflation in the PPI pipeline + myriad CB liquidity drops of cash to offset the credit crunch suggest that this inflation news may be very persistent throughout the course of next year. Stagflation is back.
December 13, 2007 10:36 A.M.EST
BULLETIN
Wholesale inflation balloons
November rise is biggest since 1973, driven by costly energy
http://www.marketwatch.com/
throughout the course of next year? throughout the next decade, at least … the last bad inflationary episode (70’s) took many years to reign in. And 15-20% interest rates are definitely not an option this time, because the whole financial system would blow up, so this time it will probably take much longer (unless the whole mess collapses on itself).
Here you go, Stucco. When that trendline breaks, if it does, no saving it.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/breakout-top-wa.html
I am not very superstitious, but the fact that many other folks are may validate this conjecture…
Dumb question from a non-technical-analyst: How come the price line is always above the trend line?
It’s not a trend line. It’s a supposed support line. No math involved, only a straightedge.
I guess you can draw your trend line wherever you please, then?
Econometricians call this “fitting by eye”…
No econometrician would call that line ‘fitted-by-eye’ if it were to replace a least squares estimate.
“No econometrician would call that line…”
OK, then how about “fitted-by-eye with biased y-intercept”?
tht’s what a trend line is
CIBC is in hot water over its MBS exposure as the insurer is about to go bankrupt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=at9H1JerrE7c&refer=home#
Just another play in the pass the debt exposure game ! How stupid, stupid, stupid this is !
Here is another pass… an insurer getting insurance itself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNPoilxwdATg&refer=home
I wonder where this ends when it all unravels. I bet all this insurance is totally useless.
TD, I read your posts about shuffling debt in the bits bucket earlier today. This is exactly what I have yammered on about for years. There is no doubt we have gone way beyond anything I could ever have even imagined. Peak Oil! Heck, we are at Peak Debt and when this spring really lets loose, look out. When margin calls start to really begin because no one has cash that is the end because when A calls B and B calls C and C calls D and D calls E, etc. etc., you get the point, it is going to be one big mess, esp. when you get to the end or beg. of the line, dep. on your POV, and Z says, “sorry we don’t got nothing here to pay with.”
All these playas thought that you could just shuffle paper around. It’s bad enough when it is “real” fiat money. However, this guys compunded the problem by shuffling debt, as you said, and by levering it 10×1 w/ these dopey deriviatives.
Well, these stinkin’ genuises are about to plunge this country into a mess that we haven’t seen since our grandparents were chasing a man named Hoover out of office.
Don’t get me wrong, I have never wished for a depression. I just think that a severe cleansing is what we need combined with a return to financial sanity and thirft/hard work.
Pushing debt around and selling consumerism is no way to run a 13 Trillion dollar economy, as well as, influence a 50 Trillion dollar worldwide economy!
Rant off!
There’s an editorial in todays “Wall Street Journal” about the very misguided proposal to allow people to discharge Mortgage debt through BK, *AND KEEP THEIR HOUSE*.
What this will do is make mortgage interest rise to the same rates as credit-card interest, because it’ll become unsecured debt.
While, eventually, this will cause house prices to plummet (not a bad thing, IMHO–even though I’m a homeowner, I think house prices are 3x what they should be), it will also cause a very strange thing to happen:
It would only make sense to buy a house if you had NO assets (i.e., could “afford” to just go BK) or if you could pay cash. It would never make economic sense for anyone else to.
“It would only make sense to buy a house if you had NO assets (i.e., could “afford” to just go BK) or if you could pay cash. It would never make economic sense for anyone else to.”
You’re right, but even if you have some assets, you could liquidate & move the money to a retirement account (can’t be touched in BK).
This would be a particularly useful method for aging boomers approaching retirement who have not saved accordingly to get the retirement home of their dreams.
It would only make sense to buy a house if you had NO assets (i.e., could “afford” to just go BK)
that’s exactly the situation in the Netherlands: if you have no assets, you have nothing to loose in the housing game and everything to gain; these buyers don’t have to think twice, they will buy whatever the price is. We have a government-backed mortgage guarantee: if you have to sell your home and don’t get enough from the sale to pay off the mortgage, the fund will pay for you. No BK necessary, you can even keep all the nice toys like the new car etc. And of course, if the value of the home goes up you can keep all the gains, totally taxfree. Lending is still as crazy as ever here (I/O, 10x income, 110-125% mortgages etc.). In the rental market the situation is very similar: most of the rental homes go to people with no income (like illegal migrants), or those receiving huge government subsidies (e.g. single moms on social security). People who can pay the rent out of their own pocket are not welcome in the rental market.
So, if you have cash it doesn’t make sense to buy or rent a home at all, because prices are at a 300-year high (and expected to reach an all-time high next year). But maybe in 25 years or so the time returns when cash has some value over here …
From the discussions on this blog I got the impression that the US Government is trying to arrange the same situation in the US (but not realised yet).
I doubt it. Have you seen the latest CBO report?
http://www.cbo.gov/
people to discharge Mortgage debt through BK, *AND KEEP THEIR HOUSE*.
I swear - I do wonder about the reading comprehension ability of people in general.
(1) The entire mortgage will NOT be turned into unsecured debt. The part of the mortgage that is more than what the house will sell for right that minute will be made unsecured. The balance remains secured. It is called a ‘cram down.’ down all the time on loans securing everything except mortgages.
(2) Bankruptcy courts routinely modify contracts - secured and unsecured - in that manner in a reorganization. Lenders know that and live with it.
(3) Bankruptcy courts did that with mortgages in reorganizations all the time until the mid-90s. This is just going back to the old method.
(4) It is only done in reorganizations and not in liquidations.
Calm down. Some lemmings went off and bought POS, some panic ‘oh but the credit market if if if….”
There’s nothing wrong with my reading comprehension.
Why don’t you read this editorial?
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119750384248325153.html
Of course, the editorialist may be oversimplyfying what a “cram down” is….
Here’s the full article (in case you’re not a WSJ subscriber)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119750384248325153-email.html
Did you miss this?
Thanks! And certainly, I believe that BK laws are better than debtor’s prison.
But with homes used as a speculative investment and not a place to live in, allowing people to speculate with limited downside seems like a recipe for disaster.
House prices fall in Calgary, Alberta, the heart of the CDN oil industry.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=9c13f470-d6a9-4a1e-ac9a-d663f373268f&k=40086
Maybe its not different there !
I wonder if the liquidity dry up in the US affects CDN liquidity ?
The treasury says the economy is good, unemployments is 4.7%, reported CPI inflation is a little high - but not horrendous, the stock market is only off 5% from its all time high, the US Treasury market is excellent. Moneys are readily available to anyone with decent credit and breathing.
Since August the Federal Reserve bank has been in panic. There have been three Fed rate cuts, 2 discount window cuts, an upcoming fund auction and the question I ask is, Why?
I would really enjoy seeing the data the Federal Reserve has in its little hands.
Because the banks are hemoraging. I think this little liquidity problem is way worse than they are letting on.
its not a liquidity problem. Its a crisis in the credit markets because of derivatives which is now a $470 Trillion market. The reason the banks aren’t lending each other money is because they all have horrendous balance sheets due to lack of visibility into their “assets”.
“…$470 Trillion market.”
I believe you misspelled Billion, right?
True
No, PB, and it’s actually over half a quadrillion now. Scary shit.
“…over half a quadrillion now.”
What’s three decimal places between friends?
we may need to get some bigger numbers…
“Why?”
Given the evidently strong economy, the only plausible explanation I can come up with is that this is a massive wealth transfer from serfs to banks.
Don’t be too quick to call this a strong economy. The anecdotal evidence I have gathered/seen, as well as, what is on this board suggest otherwise. Keep in mind that 70% of the economy is consumerism and how much of the consumerism is on plastic or some other terms?
I also have to agree w/TD. I think this cash crisis is a lot worse than da boyz are letting on.
“Don’t be too quick to call this a strong economy.”
Re-read what Hoz said:
THE TREASURY SAYS the economy is good. He wants to know what The Fed knows that has got it so spooked, considering all of the supposed good indicators.
Of course, we know what *some* of those scary things are, we’ve been talking about them for a year or two…
I am citing someone else’s economic forecast:
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1012538220071210
just to add, Trez secretary Paulson himself looked spooked when he stood with bush and announced the treaser freezer. pasty-faced and wearing flop-sweat. if you were playing poker, it was a nice little tell.
Dollar is catching a bid. Are they trying to keep inflation at bay by propping up the dollar?
I don’t think so - the euro (and euro rates) is starting to go down faster, that’s why the dollar seems to be rising. Inflation will rise anyway, I don’t think there is any escape from that with all the monetary pumping from the last 20 years. Keep an eye on the gold price, it is a better yardstick for where things are going than the dollar index or euro/dollar rate.
from the Cleveland Federal Reserve
Dec 11, 2007
Dollar Depreciations and Inflation
By Owen F. Humpage and Michael Shenk
“…Since 2006, however, the dollar has depreciated because foreign investors have become reluctant to add dollar assets to their portfolios, not because of a high U.S. inflation rate or expectations of future inflation. The price of trade goods will rise, but as long as the Federal Reserve does not accommodate the price pressures by easing excessively, inflation will not ensue.
All this may sound like an excessive bit of economic hair splitting. To the average consumer, a price rise is a price rise. But to a central bank the distinction is vital. Central banks can prevent inflation; they cannot always stop relative changes in the price of traded goods…”
http://tinyurl.com/2qzc4f
See no inflation, just a steady price rise in goods due to the fact that foreign banks no longer wish to hold dollars.
“Central banks can prevent inflation; they cannot always stop relative changes in the price of traded goods…”
All price changes are relative.
Brave New World.
On the retail sales numbers for November…
Dow Jones MarketWatch:
“U.S. retail sales rose sharply in November, pushed higher by rising gasoline prices, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
The early Thanksgiving holiday, which allowed for more Christmas shopping, may have played a role in the strong showing…”
So, what, part of the retail sales increase was an earlier start to the holiday shopping season, and part of it was an increase in gas prices? WTF are you supposed to do with a number like that, and how are you supposed to gauge changes in consumer spending (pullback, pushforeward, etc.) with a number like that?
Seriously, I really want to know…what am I missing?
the veil over your eyes….
seriously these moronic numbers spilling out of the ministers of truth are pure obfuscation, intentionally decietful, purposefully self serving to steer the idiots who worship the Television into a state relaxed mind numbing lack of thought…
I have difficulty buying things that are not made in China, or any other small child finger assembly, and Ill never have a Citi account (havent had one since 91….after the first Petro Shiek handed over a billion)……anyway, keep buying up America, and watch the real Americans shun the F$(*^%CK out of that crap…
Dont do it people, dont reward the Soverigns with business…..
Nice gig if you can get it, but it’s really hard to find things that are not made in China. or Taiwan, or Malaysia. Used to be Korea was the big exporter. Can’t even be sure about the food we eat anymore, either, except maybe at Farmer’s markets (wash off that salmonella).
OT but it is about money and houses.
Contractor, Owner Feud Over Hidden Cash
CLEVELAND - A contractor who helped discover bundles of Depression-era U.S. currency totaling $182,000 hidden behind bathroom walls said the homeowner should turn the money over to him or at least share it.
Bob Kitts said his feud with the owner of the 83-year house, a former high school classmate, has deteriorated to the point where they speak to each other only through lawyers.
Kitts said his lawyer has drafted a lawsuit that he hopes will force Amanda Reece to turn over the money she has kept.
Most of the currency, issued in 1927 and 1929, is in good condition, and some of the bills are so rare that one currency appraiser valued the treasure at up to $500,000, Kitts said.
Reece accuses Kitts of extortion.
The fight began in May 2006 when Kitts was gutting Reece’s bathroom and found a box below the medicine cabinet that contained $25,200.
“I almost passed out,” Kitts recalled. “It was the ultimate contractor fantasy.”
http://tinyurl.com/3cendc
OT but it is about money and houses.
I don’t think it’s possible to be “off topic” in something called “The Bits Bucket”
Just sayin’…
future contractors should think of another ultimate fantasy …
Ben B will make sure any dollars stacked away now in the McMansions will be utterly worthless by the time they are rediscovered; but maybe if they are shredded in small pieces they can have some real value as insulation in the walls, in order to dampen future energy bills.
I guess Kitts can’t be accused of that old-fashioned virtue, Honesty. It’s not his money. It is (was) his duty to inform the owner. It would be really nice if the owner gave him a reward — bad-mouth her if she doesnt — but it’s her money. The previous owner has a greater argument for it than the contractor, for gosh sakes.
‘Contractor fantasy’ — to find money in someone else’s house and steal it?
WTF is wrong with America today?
(chip, hang me if I’m wrong, but I think if the current owner has a clear deed, it’s finders, keepers)
Worse then expected? The hell you say?
3 Big Banks See No Relief as Write-Offs Mount Up
The Bank of America Corporation, the Wachovia Corporation
and PNC Financial Services Group said on Wednesday that
losses tied to bad debt would be worse than expected, the
latest indication that the credit markets are not returning
to normal.
http://tinyurl.com/2plcuj
But its contained, remember ? And we are at the bottom. All will be better in spring 2008. Didn’t they read the memo ?
“J.K. Rowling’s handwritten book of fairy tales sold for 1.95 million pounds ($3.98 million) at a London charity sale.
Sotheby’s top estimate for “The Tales of Beedle the Bard,” one of seven copies made after Rowling finished her last Harry Potter book, was 50,000 pounds. The money will go to the Children’s Voice, a charity co-founded by Rowling and Emma Nicholson, a member of the U.K. House of Lords. …”
Bloomberg
My fairy tale book shall be entitled “The Tall Tales of Pitiful Paulson and Bullfrog Bernanke.” Do I hear an opening bid?
10 Amero’s, no wait 50 Yousonda’s
Grrr…After all my comments regarding the housing market, a co-worker has decided to BUY A HOUSE in the near future. In San Diego yet!! They got lucky and sold their condo for an amount that covered their loan. Had BARELY any proceeds. Now, months later, they have decided to BUY a house. DESPITE having a rocky marriage. Yeah, this is a great idea! Won’t listen to my warnings about the housing market. I finally said, “Okay, I won’t say this again, but I believe that you are incorrect in thinking that the housing market WILL rebound this summer. In fact, it will fall further. If you are comfortable overpaying by thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, go ahead. I will not say anymore on the subject.” Grr,..Her UHSalesperson has informed her that housing costs will definetly be going up this summer, so they better buy now. (or be priced out forever?) Co-worker has history of poor decisions, I guess this is just one more. *Sigh*
Stars End
What’s the worst that could happen? Foreclosure, then rent again + learn a valuable lesson. It’s an educational experience.
“housing costs will definetly be going up this summer”
Boy, he’s got that right. “Costs” is an accounting term; what he probably meant was “prices.” But the “cost” of home ownership includes foregone opportunities due to lower money balances. So, yes, housing costs will definitely be going up.
Deep breath and keep telling yourself their decisions is based on their experiences and you cannot change that. Tell them to look carefully and lowball - hopefully they will. Also, in a month or two they may not even be able to get financing for any home they cannot truly afford. (Alas, the bad financing is still available but it has to break someday.) In the meantime, you have been a good friend and done everything you can. It’s out of your hands and not worth you having higher blood pressure than they do!
This will be the nail in the marriage coffin. In 8 months they’ll be blaming each other for their financial mess and instead of paying mortgage they’ll be paying the divorce lawyers.
Inflation scare in the stock market? No worries — time to create some offsetting asset price appreciation…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
I guess that whole inflation thing was overblown since the Dow finished up 44 points after the highest rate of PPI inflation in 34 years was announced.
Just more short covering…
cmon popper, inflation is at intergenerational lows.
bread? Milk? Housing? Soybeans? Petro?
all easily substituted…. with magic beans.
Banner on Orlando’s Channel 6 News at 4:15 local: “Foreclosures Outnumber Home Sales.”
Wow! Can’t wait to see that in NWF.
http://put2.elpasoco.com/foreclosure/detail.aspx?pkg=3344
Lender takes a 41% haircut on a [formerly] $785K house in Colorado Springs - wonder how the neighbors like $461K as the new comp. Ouch!
tx chick:
jdsu looks to be breaking out of 13
i missed java 18, easy money
csco tested 29, i called it at 27
What’s going on with Appraisers these days? Are 98% of them out of work now? Any standards coming their way down the lending pike?
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