December 14, 2007

Everyone Involved Was A Willing, Foolish, Party

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Along with colored lights and Christmas trees, a sure sign of the holidays are the ‘New Price’ signs decorating thousands of neighborhood lawns. After putting houses on the market in the summer and getting no takers, many sellers are trimming costs in hopes of landing a winter sale. Dallas agent Lydia Player recently put under contract a North Dallas custom home that had been for sale for almost a year.”

“‘It was priced at $1.75 million, which we thought was OK,’ she said. ‘We had to reduce it several times. When we reduced it to $1.395 million, we got three offers immediately.’”

“‘You don’t need to wait around for six months to decide if your price is right,’ said Player. ‘If we don’t get an offer in the first few weeks, we need a price reduction.’”

“Three years ago, real estate agent Diana Cavigliano couldn’t get to new homes for sale, fast enough. ‘When I first started, houses sold in hours,’ Cavigliano says.”

“But the housing market isn’t what it used to be. Cavigliano says now you’ll find homes sitting vacant for months, forcing some homeowners to drop prices by the thousands. Frustrated by the flood of empty homes, Cavigliano started tracking single family homes for sale in Boise and Meridian.”

“With all the lower prices and loan options out there, first time homeowners can afford to be picky. ‘Everybody says well it’s a bad market, well it’s good for somebody, and that somebody could be you,’ says Cavigliano.”

“Thirty-year-old construction engineer Cao Xuan Lam has never imaged he could easily earn so much money after only one year of engaging in realty business in Vietnam’s Hanoi capital. Lam, previously owning two apartments in western-style blocks, has just made a profit of nearly 50,000 U.S. dollars from selling one.”

“‘Nothing can bring about huge benefits like real estate trade. So, I have spent all my savings and loans from relatives and banks investing in it,’ he said while scrubbing his newly-bought apartment’s white-washed wall.”

“For the year to date, Regina has seen total housing starts of 1,377, the highest year-to-date starts since 1983. As records continue to be broken, it appears there won’t be a downturn anytime soon.”

“‘Consumer demand is driving this (boom),’ said Alice Russell, executive director of the Regina and Region Home Builders’ Association. ‘I’ve had a number of calls from people interested in housing from (outside the province). I love it when people call (with inquiries) about this.’”

“Statistics from the Guangzhou and Shenzhen real estate markets are pointing towards a downward trend. Many citizens say they’re still taking a wait and see attitude after a series of government measures aimed at curbing speculation in China’s property market.”

“The average has plummeted by more than more than 20% percent. GM, Real Estate Company, said, As investors become fewer and fewer, the prices are being adjusted accordingly. Many developers are choosing to drop their prices. Another housing project has set its price at 5 thousand per square meter.”

“House Buyer, said, The price now is reasonable for me, but what if it continues to drop?’

“House prices across the UK fell at their fastest rate in more than two years last month as higher interest rates and tighter controls on mortgage lending prevented many buyers from getting on the property ladder, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says today.”

“Quentin Jackson-Stops, from Jackson-Stops & Staff surveyors in Northampton, said November had been a very poor month. ‘Winter has come early to the property market,’ he said. ‘The number of viewings of properties fell substantially during the month and only properties that are very keenly priced or in the very best condition and location are generating interest.’”

“House prices in Wales fell for the sixth successive month in November and at the fastest pace since May 2005, a survey has revealed.”

“But the RICS Wales director Cathy McLean insisted large falls in house prices still remained unlikely. ‘It is clear that the housing market continues to feel the strain of depressed market conditions,’ she said. ‘However…large falls in prices remain unlikely. Employment would have to fall sharply before enough supply entered the market to create a significant dip.’”

“With real estate figures showing the housing market is cooling off homeowners are taking desperate measures just to sell. Many, like seller Carl Becker, are being forced to cut prices by tens of thousands of dollars just to entice buyers. Becker is so keen he is selling his house for $50,000 less than its registered valuation.”

“ONE News found a three bedroom house in Christchurch going for $20,000 under valuation; a four bedroom home in Papamoa going for $35,000 below valuation; and a three bedroom house in Auckland’s North Shore priced at $65,000 less than its registered value.”

“‘It’s a buyers’ market, it’s a fact, and everybody has to work in the context of the market. So in this context here for me to move it I need to discount it more,’ Becker says.”

“Potential home buyers have far fewer choices when applying for a loan these days. Largely gone are the subprime, jumbo and other exotic options that were readily available during the housing boom.”

“‘The mortgage industry will not ever again be the way it was in the last four years,’ says Ajay Rajakhyaksha, head of U.S. fixed income strategy at Barclays Capital.”

“The political class’ infatuation with interfering in the mortgage lending marketplace has played a large role in the current so-called ‘crisis’ of sub-prime lending. Political pressure nonetheless mounted, and when compliant interest rates appeared on the horizon, the industry responded with myriad, sometimes even exotic, loan products.”

“What we have here, really, is the downside of risks assumed by borrowers, lenders and secondary market investors who bought securities backed by sub-prime mortgages. Everyone involved was a willing, if in hindsight foolish, party.”

“The best thing the Bush administration and Congress could do is nothing at all. Yes, nothing. Both borrowers and lenders who took untoward risks should now pay the financial consequences. Any government interference in the process would extend the pain and raise its cost in the long run.”

“Recently, a columnist from one of the California dailies posited an interesting premise on the subprime mortgage and housing crisis.”

“He wondered why do we consistently laud a drop in the prices of such things as food, electronics and transportation, but cringe when the price tags on homes fall?”

“Instead of being bombarded with 30-point type headlines about the pending disaster of falling home prices, he asked shouldn’t we be seeing stories of how low and middle-income families, who were formerly priced out of the market, are ‘finally getting their chance at the American Dream?’”

“This in fact may be one of the rare cases where there was far too little discrimination practiced by the lenders who accepted applicants with credit scores lower than my SATs coupled with an ability to manage money like a sailor on shore leave.”

“I would expect more sense however from people like Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Both have sort of floated strategies that in my mind, and others’ as well, in essence reward people with bad credit histories.”

“At this juncture it won’t do much good to finger point, as there aren’t enough digits on both hands to include everyone who’s contributed to this mess, and, of course, lenders included.”

“But those who made their mortgage payments and worked to maintain decent credit histories shouldn’t be the ones to suffer as part of the solution.”




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156 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-14 15:27:35

Personally, it is rare when I even reflect on how far this blog has come, preferring to keep my face to the wind. But as this month marks the third anniversary of this blog, I must pause. What started as a page for my immediate family has certainly gone farther and done more than I could have ever imagined. I have always spared no expense nor effort to make this blog as good as it can be. I hope you will allow me to continue.

My thanks for your support, and please check back this weekend.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-12-14 16:51:41

Notice how his early posts had no comments. And now look…

Comment by Ouro Verde
2007-12-14 19:30:33

Sometimes I think Ben Jones is just a combination of a few different great minds. Kind of like William Shakespere really was some bard but not really William Shakesphere.

Its funny how he never used to speak out except about language and off topic. Now he really mixes it up with the masses.
I love when he goes after PB. Its like how can they both be right? PB is our professor who could be cross with him?

I refuse to pussyfoot around the new Ben Jones.

Comment by Professor Bear
2007-12-14 23:14:40

I can take a hint. I should find something else to do besides get told to buy more lotion…

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Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 20:39:53

Yeah–he’s lost his shyness, hasn’t he?

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 21:54:27

Naw,

Shy doesn’t get the job done!

8)

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Comment by peter m
2007-12-15 08:06:39

“Statistics from the Guangzhou and Shenzhen real estate markets are pointing towards a downward trend. Many citizens say they’re still taking a wait and see attitude after a series of government measures aimed at curbing speculation in China’s property market.”

I know this is not exactly a hot topic here but from my excellent e-chat correpondence with a super smart lady in nearby Foshan( less than 16 KM from guangzhou) less than 1 % of the chinese population own their own Homes.
As far as Guangzhou and Shenzhen which are located in the Pearl Delta Region along with HoNg Kong, Foshan, Macao, Zhongstan,ect. and all located in the province of Guandong, this is one of the most crowded , overpopulated regions of China. Also one of the richest ,industrialized and humming commercial regions of china, especailly Hong Kong and Guangzhou areas.
Shenzhen is the gateway city which U have to pass thru to get from HK to mainland China/Guangzhou region and into china interior provinces. It is from what i have heard a super modernized city and one of the fastest growing in all china.
China is raising it’s interest rates per gov’t fiat to cool it’s overheating economy and to contain inflation, which is running 6.9% there. Kinda the opposite of US actions.

 
Comment by peter m
2007-12-15 10:39:43

Thank U Ben for three successful years maintaining this Blogsite which is the best most informative RE/Economics blog out there. Keep up the good work.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2007-12-14 16:58:10

Kudos!

Saturday, December 11, 2004
Subprime Lending Surges

Pricing bubbles often end in a parabolic rise, which we probably saw last year. It is no surprise that what is holding up the market now is lending to so-called subprime borrowers. I view this as bad news for this market as these folks will be in financial trouble even faster. Consider that the risk to mortgage lenders increases, suggesting some desperation for borrowers. “Overall, new originations of subprime mortgages totaled an estimated $375 billion through the end of September, a figure that marked a 63 percent year-to-date rise. Putting that number into perspective, one out of every six new residential mortgages made this year has gone to a credit-impaired”..borrower.

posted by Ben Jones @ 7:35 PM 0 comments

Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:07:10

PB, just read your post from this a.m. about the Lehman guy saying we are “only halfway through the housing shock.” Shock and awe on his part will be severe in a year or two.

 
 
Comment by Misstrial
2007-12-14 17:23:01

Congratulations Ben on your achievement. There are so many great posters on this blog - thank you for making it possible to read their views on housing, money, etc.

The best thing about this blog was finding (in ‘06) others whose views matched mine. It was encouraging to learn that I was not the only one who thought that house “values” were out of whack with fundamentals.

~Misstrial

Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:09:52

Ben’s straightforward reporting, consistent format, and his own pithy brief comments have attracted to this board a good crowd of serious, well-informed people with a variety of skills.

 
 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-12-14 17:24:08

Congratulations, Ben!

You’ve really made a difference.

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-12-14 17:40:50

Hey Ben,
All I can say is: Thank You!…learning comes easy with laughter…and man your posts & commentators have given me a continuing education and a heck of lot of smiles! I am happy to send you a PayPal donation! ;-)

Comment by Dr.Strangelove
2007-12-14 19:05:38

“Thank You!…learning comes easy with laughter…and man your posts & commentators have given me a continuing education and a heck of lot of smiles!”

How true. On the other hand, some have said, “with knowledge comes sorrow.”

As of late, as we watch this all unfold, I find the uplifting ability to stay ahead of the curve through knowledge of what’s REALLY happening (with the help of this awesome blog!) is tempered with a twinge of dread.

I like St. Thomas Aquinas’ remedy; “sorrow can be alleviated with good sleep, a bath, and a glass of wine.”

I guess he wasn’t a big popcorn fan :-)

DOC

 
 
Comment by dude
2007-12-14 18:01:00

If I read the archive correctly the first ever comment was by Rich Toscano. That’s quite a priveledge. It was his San Diego blog that led me to HBB.

Who is/was mspenelope?

Comment by Backstage
2007-12-14 23:39:35

The early posters were a great lot (as are many of today’s posters) Ms. Penelope was quite an insightful poster. I miss BoulderBo’s insider’s view (still lurking, Boulder?), and Deb added an RE view. I guess Getstucco might be the most prolific long-term poster.

As much as I like Ben’s news digest format, it is/was the comments and the ability to learn and speak that keeps me coming back.

Congratulations on 3 years. It’s been funny, informative, trying, and a great relief to know that I wasn’t the only one in early 2005 who smelled a rat in housing.

Thanks, Ben

Comment by gilly
2007-12-15 05:38:50

Well spoken! Thanks BEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Comment by mspenelope
2007-12-15 00:10:44

That’s me… I’m still around!!!!
I just don’t get a chance to read this blog as much
as I’d like. My husband does it for me….he’s the one that
told me of this comment…..and sometimes I’ve posted as ‘jacqueline’ (by mistake, since no one, except Ben, knows me by that name) which is actually my name. mspenelope is my beloved first dog!!!!

Comment by dude
2007-12-15 00:16:45

I’m honored by the reply from one of the first.

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Comment by Vermonter
2007-12-14 18:21:12

No, thank you. I’ve learned more than I could have ever imagined from this blog. I came to understand when to own house and that ownership certainly wasn’t one of life’s necessities or the ultimate “American Dream.” Along the way, I’ve laughed and enjoyed the posts of intelligent and witty contributors, the likes of whom I suspect are not easily found on the Internet.

Thanks in part to this blog, we got out at the very last minute before the VT market went dead. I know we made out modestly compared to other readers and posters, but to us, with time and cash so in squeezed; “selling out” put us in charge of a decade of saving and chopped our “to do” list in half. We’re still busy and living on a budget but life on many fronts is so much better.

Please accept our thanks for all your hard work and our donation tomorrow. Have a great night and happy holidays!!

Comment by Ann
2007-12-14 18:43:25

Thanks Ben..

From all of us who took the jeers and stabs from family, foes and friends alike for not jumping on the housing “free and easy” money train..

And for all those who are able now, to enjoy the sweet and not always silent voice of “I told you so” and “I knew it”, with a bonus of having the “front row seat” to watch the train wreck…

I must say, with a devilish smile..I am enjoying it!

 
Comment by MiddleMan
2007-12-15 09:50:24

Ditto for me. I started reading this blog a year ago and got my sh*t together and got the hell out of the overpriced townhouse I bought (?) in 2004 in Simi Valley. It took 6 months and 3 price reductions. I made out with a little bit of cash, but that’s more than I can say for others, both in that development and around the country. I
I don’t claim to have the monetary sense a lot of you have on here and I wish I did. But, not a day goes by that I don’t tune in on here and read all the comments, etc. This has been an eye-opener. Thanks to Ben and everyone else on here.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 18:32:08

WOW! Third anniversary?!

Congratulations my friend!

I do not know the exact day I stumbled upon HBB - I can tell you it was well before you included the finacial thread!

I am forever in your debt.

Best always,
Leigh

Comment by Neil
2007-12-14 22:20:14

Congrats to three years Ben!

I too cannot recall the exact day I found this blog. Certainly not the first year. But its been good finding those who too can ignore the demand of the mob. Its good finding a group of those who can see when things are so out of whack to step outside of what the lemmings are driven to do. There is a storm ahead, but at least we’ll be prepared.

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by not a gator
2007-12-15 07:24:54

Thank you, thank you, thank you. You saved me from buying a house and saddling myself with a mortgage. Believe me, I was looking …However, I have to say, though I knew nothing about the bubble, I was a little put out when I ran the mortgage calculator on bankrate (of my own accord) and then searched for houses in that price range … nothing. Okay, one 1920’s era shack with crooked walls and a bathroom tacked on the back. This was after a LO at AmSouth (now RegionsBank) told me that I could get a mortgage for less than my rent. She lied!

Thanks to this blog, I realize she was probably trying to sell some sort of teaser/ARM product. Scummy.

Anyway, Ben, I love your moderation here. You’ve attracted a wonderful community (mmm, popcorn), whereas the other housing blogs were mostly shouting matches which tended to drive quality posters off. I think I got big into it during the Casey Serin reality show. I have learned so much here–all those things they didn’t teach in school and for the most part my parents didn’t teach me either.

I don’t know whether to bow or blow kisses … take that as you will. :)

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Comment by SubKommander Dred
2007-12-14 19:15:25

Ben;
A real estate agent with the last name of Player? You have got to be freakin’ kiddin’ me!

SubKommander Dred

 
Comment by Chip
2007-12-14 19:46:21

Ben — smarmy, but I owe you more than I will ever repay (”will” results from marital status - spending restraints apparently unknown to government types). Though I read several housing-bubble blogs and bear blogs with relevance, yours is the one that convinced me, from Day One, to hold my course and I have saved way more than $100K (big money for me) by so doing. You not only called it right, you devoted your time to your blog 24/7, 365. Many, many others attempted the same and either folded or throttled back. You’re a hero in my eyes and I’m ever grateful for the talent and wisdom you’ve brought together here.

Comment by Chip
2007-12-14 19:55:00

Les bon mots given, financial appreciation follows. Talk’s cheap - monetary contributions pay the rent.

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-12-15 07:27:04

I owe you more than I will ever repay (”will” results from marital status - spending restraints apparently unknown to government types)

Heh, yeah … though in my case, I’m such a softie I also basically give her all of my tiny amount of spending money so she can spend it on yarn. Damn, I think the yarn is taking over…

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 20:27:20

You’re just sounding all modest because things are getting so ugly out there and it’s not seemly to giggle spitefully. Also, you’re making names up lately, from a spirit of frolicsomeness, just so’s we can all laugh heartily:

Like this:
“‘You don’t need to wait around for six months to decide if your price is right,’ said Player. ‘If we don’t get an offer in the first few weeks, we need a price reduction.’”

Player? PLAYER?!
Come now.

Comment by CA renter
2007-12-14 20:51:25

Ben,

Add me to the list of forever-grateful readers/posters. When we were viewed as crazy, doom-and-gloom; jealous, bitter renters…we had you and your blog to turn to, 24 hours a day, 365 days a week. I’ve come here on Thanksgivings and Christmas Eves to find the HBB room still alive with intelligent posters from around the world. How amazing is that? :)

What an amazing gift you’ve given all of us. Thank you!

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 21:03:20

Ah. Oly…

How this blog brings folks together!

Memory lane ~

You were driving around sputting Baby Jebus’s name…and shan’t speculating on which prayers fell by the roadside, for verily, dous prayers are sprinkled about!

Laughed so hard…er…my eyes leaked!

Verily, I say!

Belly shaking laugher!

Thank You!
Leigh

 
 
Comment by sfbayqt
2007-12-14 21:02:59

I’d like to add my congrats, as well, Ben. When I found your blog in ‘05, I felt like one of the California ‘49ers finding gold. Eureka!! It was easier then through the early months of this year to read a topic and reply, but the popularity of your blog doesn’t always allow me to do so without sometimes repeating what someone has already said.

No worries, though. Your blog has become part of my daily routine…. reading topics and taking in the comments of all the kindred spirits here with great pleasure. It has been a true education.

Keep doing what you’re doing, Ben. You are very much appreciated.

BayQT~

Comment by novawatcher
2007-12-14 21:47:45

Keep in mind that this blog is partially funded by your donations. If you feel that this blog has been helpful to you, please throw a few dollars Ben’s way (or gold for Ron Paul folks).

 
 
Comment by M.B.A.
2007-12-14 23:16:15

paypal’ng your way…..

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-12-14 16:49:11

Here’s some house gossip:

What a scuz. I hope this blows up in his face:

The developer who bought the house at the center of Michael Vick’s dog-fighting-ring case has put it on sale a week after he bought it, at a 66% markup.

The suspended Atlanta Falcons quarterback quietly sold the house, in the rural Virginia county of Surry, last week for $450,000. The buyer, developer Wilbur Ray Todd Jr., of Todd Builders, paid about 60% of the home’s assessed value of $747,000. He plans to make some improvements and this week listed the home for that price, according to the listing agent, Kyle Hause, of Long & Foster.

The 27-year-old Mr. Vick, who grew up in the area, commissioned the 4,600-square-foot house, Mr. Hause says. According to court records, Mr. Vick began running a dog-fighting ring there in 2001 (he turned pro the same year). The 15-acre parcel includes the two-story, five-bedroom house, a professional basketball court and a dog kennel with more than 30 pens at the rear of the property, Mr. Hause says. In August, Mr. Vick pleaded guilty to federal charges and is scheduled to be sentenced on Dec. 10; he also faces state charges. Mr. Vick began his jail sentence early, on Monday.

Before a sale, the new owner is fixing damage from a burglary and removing traces of police investigations, Mr. Hause says. If a suitable offer doesn’t come in, he plans to hold an auction Dec. 15 at the house.

and if this ain’t the DFW experience, I can’t think of a better example. LOL

Pilar Wayne, the widow of John Wayne, is trying to sell her Fort Worth, Texas, home for just $100,000 more than what it cost back in 1998.

The Peruvian-born actress, who was married to the Duke for 25 years until his death in 1979, has cut her asking price to $2.3 million, from $2.6 million when she listed it this summer.

The home is in a roughly 700-acre gated community, Mira Vista, in the southwestern part of the city. Ms. Wayne’s current husband, Jesse Upchurch, chairman of travel-agency network Virtuoso, paid about $2.2 million for the newly built house on a half-acre in 1998, records show.

The 9,000-square-foot house has six bedrooms, one of which Ms. Wayne uses as an art studio (she sells her oil paintings). There’s also a pool, a hot tub, an elevator and five fireplaces and it’s adjacent to a Tom Weiskopf-designed golf course.

Comment by txchick57
2007-12-14 17:12:52

I wonder what Wilbur Ray Todd of Todd Builders would say if someone offered him 40% off one of his houses. I guess there has to be a notoriety discount but I hope he eats this place.

Comment by spike66
2007-12-14 17:29:46

Is it wrong to hope that lightning hits this hellhole and burns it to the ground? And takes Wilbur Ray with it.

Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-12-14 17:43:03

“lightning hits this hellhole”

You rang?

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Comment by Chip
2007-12-14 19:57:20

ROFL. Perfect timing, NNV.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-12-14 17:40:04

When I saw tthe Vick property sale I posted that I thought it was a very attractive price - even said it was the best deal I’d seen post-bubble. The guy obviously bought a distressed asset at a knockdown price, but it still took nerve to step up and do it. Got a great deal, like what a lot of us on the blog are hoping to do. No different than what savvy pros do in markets every day. I got no problem with it.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 21:32:55

700 acres vs half an acre?

Where do I sign up?

Details!
Leigh ;)

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-14 16:52:35

“With real estate figures showing the housing market is cooling off homeowners are taking desperate measures just to sell. Many, like seller Carl Becker, are being forced to cut prices by tens of thousands of dollars just to entice buyers. Becker is so keen he is selling his house for $50,000 less than its registered valuation.”

The tiny New Zealand real estate market, combined with it’s healthy interest rates, which make loans around 11%, will plunge this market quicker than most other world-wide locales.

It’s as good of a canary in a coal mine, as you are likely to find…

Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:27:49

Fall 05 I was on a trans-Pacific geophysical cruise with some NZ science guys. They saw nothing but a continued runup ad infinitum. I had to shut up.

Comment by New Zealand Renter
2007-12-14 18:58:15

People here are still amazingly clueless about the RE bubble. After all, it is different here. Note, the homes being offered “below valuation” are still double 2003 prices.

It is interesting that the brand new 4br SFR we will be renting next month was offered as a rental by the builder prior to completion. The builder didn’t even try to sell it for the neighborhood wishing price (25 years rent) as nothing is moving. But he wasn’t about to “give it away” by selling for 10 years rent either. They think the market is going to come back soon.

Comment by Bruce Dickinson
2007-12-14 20:44:41

I was just in NZ and noticed signs of a bubble:

1) They were advertising a prime time show on NZ1, which was a real estate show. (Kind of like “Flip This House” running at 8 pm on NBC.) A woman who could only afford NZD 350k wanted to be a “nice” house. I think the punch line was that it is ridiculous to even contemplate buying a house for so little money. (1 NZD = USD 0.75).

2) I noticed houses with for sale signs with open houses. But the open house was for 30 minutes. (!) “Buy now or you will lose out!”

3) The Sunday was extremely fat with colorful real estate pages.

But this was tempered by mortgage rates advertised at around 11% and you could deposit money for 9% in the bank.

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Comment by palmetto
Comment by palmetto
2007-12-14 16:56:07

From the editorial:

“How will it all end? Markets won’t start functioning normally until investors are reasonably sure that they know where the bodies — I mean, the bad debts — are buried. And that probably won’t happen until house prices have finished falling and financial institutions have come clean about all their losses. All of this will probably take years.

Meanwhile, anyone who expects the Fed or anyone else to come up with a plan that makes this financial crisis just go away will be sorely disappointed.”

Sing it, brothah!

Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:03:37

Amen! :)

Comment by tresho
2007-12-15 00:26:25

Most lucid explanation of liquidity vs. solvency I’ve found.

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Comment by joe momma
2007-12-15 00:12:22

Krugman is the best.

 
 
Comment by manhattanite
2007-12-15 06:47:56

i am usually quite skeptical of krugman, yet i found myself agreeing with him 100% this time. i wonder if he reads ben’s blog….

 
 
Comment by JohnF
2007-12-14 16:56:37

A sign of desperation:

“K. Hovnanian Homes has increased the commission up to 10% for any contract written by December 31st, 2007 and closed by January 30th, 2008. Take advantage of this incredible holiday season offer today before it’s too late. If you have a serious buyer that you are currently working with, then you can’t afford to let this opportunity pass you by.”

This is for projects located throughout SoCal. In the past it was rare for a builder to offer ANY commission to an outside agent. Now they have had to up it to 10%! What’s it gonna be this summer….20%…30%???

Comment by Groundhogday
2007-12-14 17:29:02

They are going to give a 10% commission to the realtor, but resist dropping the price 10%. Which course of action would be more effective?

Comment by JohnF
2007-12-14 17:56:28

The 10% agent commission is hidden to the new buyer AND the other homeowners that just bought. If the builder lowers the asking price 10% the current owners start to bitch….

….as a rule of thumb, if builders start to offer commissions to outside agents it means they are in trouble…..

 
Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:31:58

Considering that sales volume has not fallen to zero, extra commission is a pretty effective way of making sure that the house you are trying to sell is the one that gets shown a lot. You have to price it effectively, but it will beat out similarly priced properties if a bunch of agents are enthusiastic.

Comment by JohnF
2007-12-14 19:54:06

I do wonder about the current sales volume. If the unqualified people are losing their homes now, and a different group of “qualified” buyers are transacting now, what does that mean for sales volume in 6 months or a year from now? Where are the additional “qualified” buyers going to come from?

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Comment by Neil
2007-12-14 22:30:05

Where are the additional “qualified” buyers going to come from?

Two sources.
1. One born every minute.
2. A small cadre sits on the sidelines. ;)

There is always a market. Its just a matter of transaction rate. At the peak it was ~7 million in one year (2005). Its looking like 5.67 million in 2007. Next year. down. Somewhere lower. It would take a catastrophic meltdown to drop below 3.0 million a year. But it wouldn’t take much more slowing to go below 4.0 million a year. Don’t expect sales to ever truly stop.

But it wil get glacially slow. I just witnessed a coworker catch a falling knife. Am I surprised? Yes. I thought this individual was better informed. It just proves the knife catchers will come from many sources. Cest la vie. There do need to be comps on the way down. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
 
Comment by Hondje
2007-12-15 13:10:06

Hovnanian has some POS townhouses in Manassass, VA that originally had asking prices north of $375,000. I need to go by there sometime to see what they’re asking for now, but I can imagine they’ll one day drop their asking prices below $200,000 to get them to sell.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-14 20:56:41

Oh for God sakes ,just go to the darn track yourself and submit a low ball to the builder .The Realtors isn’t going to be working for you if the builder is giving them 10% to just bring you to the track .

Funny, a new home track salesman called me yesterday telling me they would pay me 10% to bring my clients to the tract and just turn the sucker over to this smooth commissioned salesperson working for the builder .This salesman though I was a realtor and I played along with it . In the course of the conservation the guy told me they were thinking of bringing people in by bus ,(remember people being bused to new home tracts during the boom ).
A buyer doesn’t need a Realtor who is working for the builder in combo with the tract salesman (that’s 2 commissioned sales people teaming up on the buyer ). Just go to the tracts yourself and than have a lawyer draft a sales contract for you so your protected . Sorry realtors, you have proven that your lying scum and half the time you don’t know how to write a purchase contract anyway . Nobody deserves 10% to sell someone down the tubes .Better do your own homework these days

That being said , haven’t we discussed how bad the construction has been on new homes and how so many new home tracts are riddled with speculators that are foreclosure bound ,and isn’t it to soon to be buying anyway with all this drama in the market going on ?

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 21:51:11

Ghost town?

OK…let’s get on a bus and drive to a subdivision!!!

Er…or, not?

“That being said , haven’t we discussed how bad the construction has been on new homes and how so many new home tracts are riddled with speculators that are foreclosure bound ,and isn’t it to soon to be buying anyway with all this drama in the market going on ?”

SOooo true!

Safety! Just say no to foreclosures, drug dens or other icky stuff!

Frack the builders and the real*icks! We don’t need they stinking contracts! (The lying cheats)!

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-14 23:22:57

You said it ,(and always in such a amusing way ).

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Comment by dude
2007-12-14 16:56:47

A personal story of defeat today.

I found out that two young couples who I thought I had convinced not to buy homes in this declining market both have bought in Lancaster,CA in the last few months.
I’m not suprised that they didn’t tell me themselves. Both couples are twenty somethings, one is still a full time student and is already having trouble with the payment. He was apparently sold by a family member in the mortgage business.
The other is a financial consultant and probably drank too much Kool-aid.
Won’t people ever learn that the dude is always right?

Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-14 17:06:35

The dude abides…

Comment by dude
2007-12-14 17:21:35

I have a little brother that got sent to county lockup by a vengeful ex-wife. My sister bailed him out. He knew better than to call me.
My other little brother when he heard what had happened said. “If I ever end up in jail I’m not going to call anyone. I’m going to sit there in my orange jumpsuit and think about what I’ve done wrong with my life.”
Apropo for knife catchers I think.

Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 20:32:38

How many siblings you GOT?
Jeeze. One would suspect you are a Mormon or something.

Haw! Ahawhawhaw! I’m funny tonight.

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Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 20:38:39

Dude. I’m not laughing at you, I’m laughing with you. As it happens, every single EMT and county sheriff in Utah county, Utah state knows all my family members by name. My poor mom. Poor, poor mom.

Oh, I’m getting ready for my Christmas trip back home to Utah, by the way. The reservation indians out by the coast have way more exciting stuff that you can get in Utah. ‘Blow Whitey Fingers All the Way Off’ type of stuff.
I can’t wait! I’ll be soooo popular with my brothers!

 
Comment by dude
2007-12-14 21:26:17

Eight that lived.

 
 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 21:26:47

My other little brother when he heard what had happened said. “If I ever end up in jail I’m not going to call anyone. I’m going to sit there in my orange jumpsuit and think about what I’ve done wrong with my life.”

Maybe he should just think about how to get away better. Then the question of calling someone for bail money wouldn’t ever arise, and he could sit there looking smug and righteous when the other, more easily captured sibling, calls up from the pokey all sad and penitent. He could shake his head disparagingly and murmur sadly. I bet that’d be satisfying.
In fact, I KNOW it would be.

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Comment by SoBay
2007-12-14 17:50:56

‘The dude abides…
-Obviously these Lancaster / Palmdale newbies were slipped the ‘Big Lewboski’.

These areas are refered to as ‘Compton North’ - they are mighty tough hoods.

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2007-12-14 18:00:20

Not accounting majors like me, I hope!!!
(well, actually, it’s been 20 years)

 
Comment by HARM
2007-12-14 18:13:04

I have a couple of my own “failure tales”. Sadly, the lure of the Dark Side is stronger than reason for most people. Homedebtorship (mass marketed as the ‘Amerikan Dream’) has a powerful lure in our culture. Everyone seems to measure his sense of self worth by: a) job, b) house, c) car. Even when people believe what you are telling them is true, their gut (fear, doubt, uncertainty, greed, desire, nesting instinct) overrides their brain.

Reason vs. Emotion. It ain’t even close.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-14 20:25:51

They do not listen. Just remember that. The fools will nod and say, “I get it” and then they will go commit financial suicide. Most won’t even leave you a note.

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 19:02:29

OK. I’ve been holding out.

Went to a “cookie exchange” previous Sunday.

Five fine ladies, great food, awesome cookies! (Everyone bakes a dozen for the other four and brings a dish.)

I’m the only renter, and my lady friends know we want to purchase a home.

I prayed and prayed this subject would not come up…yeah…that turned out well.

I do a comical thing when I want to change the subject - pretend I didn’t hear the question and counter with something else - food trays, pretty cookies, nice shoes! (Giggles).

OK. So now I’m pinned down and have to engage.

“You haven’t found a house yet?”

“No, I can’t seem to find what I like”, and shamelessly blame absent hubby, “He wants ten acres, mancave, and ranch with walkout”. (Which I also desire…snicker).

“Well, that will cost $$!” (In my head, where I am safe, er…no it won’t).

“Actually, we’re waiting until after the holidays - too much to do right now.”

Sucessfully turn conversation back to pretty shoes, nice hair, oh so colorful cookies and tasty food trays!

Leigh=1
Ladies=0

And hubby wonders why I don’t wan’t to leave the house!

Chortle,
Leigh

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-14 21:29:26

You go gal.

I’ve learned from my Mom on how to change the subject politely. :)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2007-12-14 21:42:20

‘…food trays, pretty cookies, nice shoes! (Giggles).’

My God! It’s like heaven! Were there college boys, too? All grouchy and moody, like they are?

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 22:09:35

“Were there college boys, too?”

Now, that there would have been one heck of a party!

Shucks, why didn’t I think of that?

Oly, you’re invited to the next social!

You are in charge of bringing the frat…er…gentleman!

Leigh

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Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-15 00:15:58

Hi Leigh,

You go gal.

My mom taught me how to change the subject politely. She is one smart lady like you. :)

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-14 17:03:14

“The best thing the Bush administration and Congress could do is nothing at all. Yes, nothing. Both borrowers and lenders who took untoward risks should now pay the financial consequences. Any government interference in the process would extend the pain and raise its cost in the long run.”

White Elephants & Jackasses is what we have for followership.

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-12-14 17:16:51

Ron Paul on Mad Money with Chimpo Cramer. Repeats at 11 EST.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-12-14 17:31:16

That should be an interesting show…

 
Comment by We Rent!
2007-12-14 19:13:48

Watched it on the Mad Money website. God, I hope Ron Paul’s popularity snowballs into something big in the next few months.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-14 20:38:16

It’s out there on Youtube already. It’s pretty good. I can’t figure out Cramer’s angle. His buddies love the free flowing Fed.

According to Joe Kernan there are only 50,000 hardcore Internet nuts that are supporting Congressman Paul.

I worry about people thinking Ron Paul can be a savior. They get themselves so worked up then everything falls short of their expectations. I was there for the election of Governor Lunkhead Ventura and the resulting disappointment. I think Ron Paul has good things to say. He’s the first presidential candidate I’ve ever donated money to. It will be interesting to see if he can keep building momentum.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-12-14 21:55:53

He’s being killed off slowly but surely by the Republican powers that be, they have already selected who they wan’t and it’s Guilliani, as demonstrated by the outright dismissal of the surprising Huckabee rise…

I would personally prefer Paul myself, but they’d assassinate him before they let him revert us back to the gold standard, rid us of the IRS and the Dept of Education in one 4 year term.

Ahh, Hell, I’m going to vote for him anyway, He may just get lucky and survive. If he’s bold enough to take the challenge I’m bold enough to vote for him. What the hell…

 
 
 
Comment by NotInMontana
2007-12-14 17:22:12

So how available are the subprime, no-down loans now? Have they almost completely dried up? I just filed my monthly report, and Nov sales are down 23% from last year, 13% for the year, but median is up noticeably.

That means low-end is not selling, right?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-12-14 18:20:33

From time to time, low-end properties sell in Tucson. I can think of a couple of examples in my neighborhood. I can also think of three others that were taken off the market. Two went back to being rentals, and the other is still occupied by the owners-who-tried-to-sell.

Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:36:52

and the lowest of the low, i.e., manufactured housing, seems not to be in very much trouble at all, yet.

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 19:45:04

Az_,

I have a half-baked theory.

Perhaps people who purchase within modest means (you would know percentage better than I), tend to be frugal?

Not to be confused with economically disadvantaged.

Perhaps, these ones enjoy the simplicity of life, little to no maintenance, and OK, let’s throw in they like to travel.

OK. Or they like to eat out. Not to sterotype, but not your normal diamonds and pearls folk - perhaps less material and more life!

This is anecdotal, of course, you have more of a pulse than I.

Sounds sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!
Leigh

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Comment by JohnF
2007-12-14 19:58:48

Low-end and high-end selling OK makes sense. It is a reflection of what is happening to wealth in this country. A few very wealthy folks who can afford just about anything, and a very large group of low wage earners that can afford the bottom end. The middle will get killed in the long run.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 21:25:27

Hi John,

Good point.

The spirit of my message is some folks prefer to live!

Nothing more, nothing less.

Not a class division, perhaps downsize frugally, and live well?

I don’t know.

I’m happy for such ones.

Best,
Leigh

 
Comment by not a gator
2007-12-15 07:40:26

Count me in! It’s a good month when I spend more on restaurants than rent. Heheheheh.

(& yes, I like to travel. a big property would tie me down. only thing I miss renting an apt is a vegetable garden.)

 
Comment by bill in Maryland
2007-12-15 17:00:18

It’s a good month when I spend more on restaurants than rent.

I can see how to do that in Tucson. There are a few good restaurants in the area and there are some inexpensive rents. I like to indulge in travel and dining. Credit card balance is always 0 by the end of December every year anyway.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by mikey
2007-12-14 17:27:20

The many varibles like a housing recession, job losses, and the credit crunch In this heavenly consumer monthly payment society should bring a lot of high flying feet back down to the ground in a hurry…with a THUD or a SPLAT :)

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfreude
2007-12-14 17:31:04

For three years now, Ben Jones has been the driving force behind this site, as well as having sole responsibility for its maintenance and upkeep. These are are hugely expensive propositions in time and money. As the readership and influence of this site have grown exponentially over the past years, so too have the requirements and demands of running it, yet Ben soldiers on alone.

Just as Ben is reflecting on the past three years, and no doubt contemplating, where do I go from here? - I would sincerely hope that all who have benefited from this site - especially those who avoided costly mistakes due to information and insights you found in here - would also reflect on what this site has given to you, and what you have contributed, in real terms, in return.

I have no idea of what percentage of readers and posters in here are also contributers - typically, though, it’s a tiny percentage. While Ben has described this as a labor of love, imagine yourself in his position - having the day-to-day responsibility of running this site and making it what it is. What would YOU require as compensation? How would YOU feel about people who have been greatly enriched by the existence of this site - whether by avoiding a costly mistake, enjoying the comraderie of bright, independent thinkers, or having such an incredible information resource to guide your housing decisions - but who take a “let the other guy take care of that” attitude to supporting this site, and Ben, in the way that matters most: financially.

It’s been a few months since I sent Ben a modest check. I’m sending him another one tomorrow. I’m hoping each of you, as honorable individuals, will do the same, and continue to give your generous support to Ben and this remarkable site.

Sincerely,
Sammy

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 19:13:42

Well said Sammy!

I purchase many books. Love to read.

Love to read this blog and all who contribute, and to Ben, for a warm chair in his den!

Compensation is only fair!

Here here!
Leigh

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-12-15 00:39:56

“…enjoying the comraderie of bright, independent thinkers,”

How refreshing! ;-)

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2007-12-14 17:41:34

Anybody near the 92075 zipcode in SoCal know what’s going on in this seaside town? A 1960 era, non-updated 2000 sf home with a nice-sized yard is in escrow for 1.2 mil, or so says the FSBO. I find that hard to believe, but Zillow shows sales pre August 2007 in about this price range for the area. Conversely, a similiar home (age/size) on Mt. Helix is for sale around $750K, and this one is vastly upgraded. Sure, it’s not near the beach, but has an incredible view all the way to the Coronado Bridge.

Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:15:18

I’m not familiar with that zip, but have definitely seen what you’re referring to.

Sometimes, there are nice properties in good neighborhoods with big lots, but some idiot will pay more for a tract McMansion in a tract with HOA fees!

Ignorance or bad RE agents??? Who knows?

 
 
Comment by Englishman in NJ
2007-12-14 17:42:07

Congratulations Ben.

As someone said earlier in thread, finding this site was so good because it really helped me understand that I’m not alone out there.

I work on Wall Street and believe me, there are many clueless people in the financial sector in NYC. It seems to me that they completely lack imagination - just because something is so they can’t understand that it won’t necessarily always be so.

Anyway, my check is in the mail to you, and because I’m a cash-rich happy renter, you can be sure it will not bounce!

Everyone on this blog have a great Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-12-14 20:42:16

We should meet up on Stone Street or at the Killarney Rose some time. That would be fun. It’s just down the block from us. Let me know if you’re up for it. My wife and I have been known to drink a few beers after work.

 
 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-12-14 17:48:08

Anderson Center at Chapman call for a recession in 2008:

Warning: PDF

Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:01:59

Wow, 2008 loss of $350B in mortgage-backed bonds. (Maybe such an estimate was posted before; this is the first time I noticed.)

Comment by Hoz
2007-12-14 18:28:57

The estimate is based on a 4.8% decline in house prices. It is a fairly optimistic report.

Comment by vozworth
2007-12-14 18:43:25

am startin to get some serious insider selling signals, that continues to feed my crash position scenario…..all the signals are crossed.

fetal position, wheels up over the ocean, plane on fire…..I was hoping for a soft landing, but all the intervention is just gonna feed the confusion and anger….lack of trust, erosion of credibility, and outright mis-information, and throw in some big boy style collusion in an effort to support the “this is so”…..

people are gonna wake up broke.

People come to this blog to get the skinny on the housing bust….. turns out, housing is just the juansixpack of Capital. And so much is ficticious…… well, big boy capital hangs out at the banks… and they are the ones neck deep in shit.

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Comment by dude
2007-12-14 17:49:37

Oh, BTW, the Dude Anti-Bubble Spec Account has closed out trading for the year.

I earned 52%, not bad, better than last year.

Am I keeping up with inflation?

Comment by Englishman in NJ
2007-12-14 17:57:34

It depends on whose inflation rate you use Dude.

By the Govt’s, yes and congratulations. By a measure of M3 expansion, maybe but not by much. By a measure of “true” inflation, yeah 52% is good, but you better do better next year or you might lose ground overall!!

Comment by dude
2007-12-14 17:59:05

My thoughts exactly.

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2007-12-14 18:04:03

Dude, you are certainly doing better than my lousy 9%-10% mortgages. Care to let us in on some of your 2008 trading ideas?

Comment by dude
2007-12-14 18:21:48

Yes, do what txchick says.

I’m looking for the next foot to fall in retail. I’m short BBY and thinking seriously about AAPL or RIMM. Meanwhile I’ll continue to daytrade (though my cycle is normally more like a month) the miners. They have great volatilty and are really just an enhanced PM bet. I’ve made half my returns since ‘04 on the miners.
Disclaimer: I’m actually a pimple faced kid with $5 in the bank, so don’t listen to anything I say.

 
Comment by dude
2007-12-14 18:29:51

Oh, and az, I think your 9-10% is quite a bit less risky than my 52%.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-12-14 19:11:23

Iceland’s currency is up 17% this year, but it looks like the bonds got hammered. What do you think about trying to play the Yuan?

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-14 17:55:27

“‘Nothing can bring about huge benefits like real estate trade. So, I have spent all my savings and loans from relatives and banks investing in it,’ he said while scrubbing his newly-bought apartment’s white-washed wall.”

An entirely different flavor of V.C. (venture capital)

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-12-14 18:15:36

Okay, if you can stand the bug eyes and spittle flying at the camera, here’s the Cramer/Ron Paul video:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22261655

Comment by M.B.A.
2007-12-14 22:54:02

thanks, tx…just got in and would have missed it…

 
Comment by joeyinCalif
2007-12-14 23:54:41

Anything Cramer, RP and Barney Frank agree upon can’t be wrong.

 
 
Comment by mrjauk
2007-12-14 18:18:11

Gazing into my crystal ball, this is what I see for Mr. Cao Xuan Lam:

He will continue to ride the wave, thinking that it will last a lifetime. When the wave crashes, he will find that all of his wealth is tied up in the real estate market, and he’ll ride it to financial ruin. As Kenny Rogers once said, “you’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.”

 
Comment by James H
2007-12-14 18:18:30

“Statistics from the Guangzhou and Shenzhen real estate markets are pointing towards a downward trend. Many citizens say they’re still taking a wait and see attitude after a series of government measures aimed at curbing speculation in China’s property market.”

I just returned from Shanghai, and if you thought that speculation was big here…As usual, everyone’s a real estate mogul buying and selling properties. The cost for an apartment there is pretty outrageous, something like $500-600K for a 2-bedroom. They will have a big crash in the next couple of years, I think.

Comment by rick
2007-12-14 21:19:17

$500k 2 bedroom huh?

Are you talking about the $1000+ sq Tomson? That is a joke, it is a shot-for-the-moon attempt, but it has not sold a single unit (unless the situation has changed recently).

The top priced SH condos sell for $600/sq or so, very high but not THAT high.

 
 
Comment by jimbo
2007-12-14 18:24:49

I have lurked on this site for 13 to 14 months. Caught a falling knife in with my new wife ’round October 1st in the Atlantic City, NJ area, where sellers are still definitely in the denial phase of the crash. We both had substantial equity from sales of our places, though, so we’ll be alright. I feel as if I know most of the regulars here and really do LOL at some of the comments. Keep up the good work.

 
Comment by Dr.Strangelove
2007-12-14 18:47:23

““‘Nothing can bring about huge benefits like real estate trade. So, I have spent all my savings and loans from relatives and banks investing in it.”

A coworker of mine in Sacramento, CA pooled “family” money and all signed a note on the bubble upswing to buy a multi-million dollar orchard property they just knew they’d flip to some developer down the line.

Back in 04′-05′ he kept harping on me that I should stop renting and buy–and wouldn’t listen when I discussed waiting to buy after the bubble-burst.

We talked breifly earlier this year by phone…I made a remark about all the FB’s who had taken out interest only and other such toxic loans to leverage real estate–and how they were going to get burned. I never assumed he used toxic financing as he’s very intelligent, has a Master’s degree. I was wrong…

There was dead air for a second on the phone, then he just says “dude, you’re talking about me.”

Ouch. We don’t talk about real estate any more. :-(

DOC

 
Comment by Hoz
2007-12-14 18:48:28

“The mortgage industry will not ever again be the way it was in the last four years”

I have heard that about the banking industry for 40 years and it is always unwrapped, repackaged and resold as a new investment. If the banks made a profit once, they will try try again. The Texas S & L collapse was 20 years ago, we are still paying and most Americans have completely forgotten about the events.

Have a great weekend all!

To Mt. Bohemia I go. =====

Comment by Leighsong
2007-12-14 19:18:17

Be safe, Sir Hoz!

Curtsey,
Leigh

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-12-14 18:50:06

Housing slump hits home in East S.J.

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_7724733#recent_comm

Girlie Bass, a registered nurse whose husband drives for the Valley Transportation Authority, is trying to get her lender to take back the “fixer-upper” on Aetna Way in San Jose she bought for a borrowed $615,000 in 2004. “I just want them to release me from the mortgage. Take the house. I don’t care if I get a dime out of it,” said Bass, who is 61. She said her loan payment is now $6,497 a month, far outstripping her and her husband’s ability to pay.

Comment by spike66
2007-12-14 19:29:18

“These are largely Spanish-only speakers with an average loan balance of $475,000 to $575,000 typically earning an average of $3,300 or less a month per household, according to Marlene Santiago, the agency’s bilingual foreclosure counselor.”

So who needs a foreclosure counselor? In Spanish or English, the numbers are the numbers. You can’t afford it, you never could, the banks will foreclose and you’ll be evicted. End of story.
And this is no tragedy. Just a gambling loss.

Comment by Tim
2007-12-14 20:03:33

If there is no recourse against the Borrower, as is usually the case, was it even gambling? Gambling implies that you were putting up your money, while in fact, they were using the investor’s (of the ultimate securitization trust) money, as I doubt they put down little, if any, money of their own. I consider it more of a game that should never have been allowed.

 
 
Comment by FP
2007-12-14 19:57:50

East SJ? A house for $600,000? LOL! There are areas South of San Francisco that you want to avoid and East SJ is one of them. WOW $6,000 a month. If you miss one payment, you’re on the hook for $12,000. Hmmm, if you rented an apartment for $1500 and saved the $4500 a month for 3 years you get a little over $160K. That’s how much a house is worth in East SJ. And you cou;d’ve paid it in cash.

 
 
Comment by Wine Country Dude
2007-12-14 19:05:33

Agree w/ comments about the great job Ben has done with this blog. My first contribution goes in today.

2004 and 2005 were wacky years and I was tempted to “trade up” from my March 2001 purchased home. But I remembered my experience of buying at the top in 1988 and trying to sell during the 1991-1992 recession. My house was on the market 14 months and I ended up writing a (blessedly small, as it turns out) check for $8,000 just to get rid of it. I had this feeling in 2004 and 2005 that it’s all musical chairs, and I’d be the one standing when the music stopped.

This blog–and the crash that is now upon us–has really clarified my thinking. What I felt intuitively in 2004 and 2005 is now based on hard, cold facts, and I am unbelievably skeptical of what the MSM tells us. They have been wrong so many times.

Comment by Ted
2007-12-14 20:43:39

I share your exact story. I bought my first little townhouse in 1988 one year after the supposed “peak”, for what was then the lowest price recorded in years. Three years later i watched $12,000 of my down payment evaporate, and frankly it was the best money I ever lost. My wife wanted to trade up to a bigger house down the street in 2004, but it felt like the same madness we encountered in the 80’s.
As it turns out, this version of the madness was much, much worse than even then. Sometimes age really does bring wisdom.

Comment by ric
2007-12-15 05:37:33

Education may produce intelligence, but only experience imparts wisdom.

 
 
 
Comment by spike66
2007-12-14 19:50:14

Schwartzenegger Declares Cali ‘Fiscal Emergency’

“Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) — California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will declare a state of fiscal emergency under never-before-used rules that would force lawmakers into a special session to address a $14 billion deficit.

The governor, touring a hospital in Long Beach, said he will declare the emergency in January when lawmakers return from recess. Under the action, the Legislature would have 45 days to find ways to plug the shortfall, including cutting spending from the current budget. If they fail to find a solution in that time, they are barred from doing any other legislative work or adjourn until they do.”

Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:36:17

Had one of those survey calls the other week asking what I thought should be cut from the CA budget & what I thought of Schwarzenegger, etc.

Now, I’m seeing everything they were asking about in the MSM.

BTW, during the survey, I opted for cutting expenses first, before increasing taxes AND said the “foreclosure crisis” was not a bad thing & the govt should stay out of it.

 
 
Comment by Majisto
2007-12-14 20:00:32

Happy Blogiversary, Ben. Just paypaled over some holiday cheer to you.

Thank you for all you do in creating this great online community. All the best to the rest of the gang here at the HBB! :D

 
Comment by Tim
2007-12-14 20:13:47

I have been an active supporter of many blogs over the years. I have never seen one kept as current, or with more knowledgeable commentators, than yours. Great job!

 
Comment by ugh
2007-12-14 20:19:20

Vancouver, Prairies, GTA are all in denial mode. Some of our bubbles are as inflated as SoCal, maybe worse ($25M bidding war for Toronto condo PH to be built in 3 years! WTF?)

It will be bad here when the SHTF.

Comment by jrochest
2007-12-14 22:37:47

My first comment got eaten; I’ll try again.

Saskatoon is the worst: 28.5% rise in one year, with TDBank suggesting we’ve got another 28% rise to come this year. And a vacancy rate that’s gone from 3.2% to 0.6% in six months, largely helped by a condo conversion policy that’s approved 1,000 units for conversion out of a total of 13,500 in the city as a whole.

To give you an idea of the problem: the CMHC found 85 apartments for rent the city when they did the survey, and half of those were in the worst neighborhoods (gangs, crack houses and guns).

So of course, rents are going up — so much for the cheap little city.

 
 
 
Comment by Mike in Pacific Beach
2007-12-14 22:29:37

Mortgage insider’s thoughts

http://tinyurl.com/2ota6e

 
Comment by jrochest
2007-12-14 22:29:55

Saskatoon (another tiny prairie town, 200,000 people, no economy to speak of) is as bad as Regina: last year saw a 28.5% price increase (PDF) with a further 28% rise forecast, and a boom in condo conversions of badly maintained rental units; 1,000 units slated for conversion out of a total of 13,500 in town. Of course, this has led to a massive run on rental housing, resulting in the worst vacancy rate in Canada, 0.6% .

To give you an idea of the scale: when CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing) did the survey, they found 85 units for rent out of 13,500. 45 of them were in the worst neighborhood in town. Rent’s gone from 500 a month for a 2 bedroom to around 1000 in a year.

All this is largely brought on by Alberta flippers; the mayor and the council keep thumping the drum and shouting about a boom — but the jobs are mostly terrible, there’s no life to speak of and the downtown is riddled with empty lots. Not a boomtown. I got a good job (I’m a professor) at the university, but I’m not in love with the place, and this is making things far worse….

 
Comment by M.B.A.
2007-12-14 23:07:03

OT

Major milestone today for yours truly.

I PAID OFF MY MORTGAGE TODAY.

Cheers! 8)

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-14 23:25:56

Good for you .I think that is one of the greatest feelings a person can have .No more dealing with a lender . Maybe it will become popular again not to have any kind of debt .

Comment by M.B.A.
2007-12-14 23:39:54

Even though it was not overly burdensome like most mortgages today, the feeling of literally having such a burden removed is hard to describe. One of the best days of my life….

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-12-15 00:30:33

Right On! Enjoy & Celebrate! You’ve earned it! ;-)

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Comment by not a gator
2007-12-15 07:48:52

Congratulations!

Now is a great time to be debt free (with apologies to NAR).

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Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:38:21

Yay!!! Congratulations on the paid-off mortgage, M.B.A.!!! Great holiday gift to yourself.

Hope you have a “mortgage burning” party!!! :)

 
Comment by Vermonter
2007-12-15 04:58:35

Congrats!!

 
 
Comment by jrochest
2007-12-14 23:10:03

Why in the world don’t my posts show up? I don’t think I said anything that would get me stuck in moderation….

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-15 00:19:35

I’m having the same problem jrochest.

 
Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:39:56

Happens all the time. Most often, they’ll show up later — maybe hours later.

 
 
Comment by sportscapsule
2007-12-14 23:21:27

ben, long time reader, 1st time post. paypal donation on the way! thanks for your efforts and keep it up. My wife and I are currently renting and low balling in So Cal. Sold out in 2005.

 
Comment by Fecaltime!
2007-12-14 23:40:54

I have been following this blog almost since the beginning, I had a different username. I sold 2 properites here in CA in Sept 2004 & Oct 2005. Mainly because of this blog…I am grateful I found it because it has made me a lot of money!

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-12-14 23:55:59

The cat is out of the bag ,and more and more the MSM is starting to touch on the truth . My guess is that it will be a bear stock market tomorrow ,but that’s just my feeling that the bad news hasn’t been totally priced in yet .

The bail out spinners are saying in essence that the bail out is justified because foreclosures will bring down the value of property . The spinners go on to say that bail outs are not about penalty to the lenders or borrowers ,but to save property values .Boy ,talk about trying to get the public to accept eventually lack of justice and the rule of law in favor of bail outs that will cost the tax payers and don’t forget inflation .

What about the fact that these clowns have been deceiving the public for months now regarding the meltdown by simply saying they don’t know what the losses are . All roads lead to the general public paying a portion of this bill for this crime wave in lending ,and I don’t like it . Where does it say in the constitution that the public must uphold property values after a bubble . This is discrimination against the people who refused to engage in fraud or take on more house than they could afford .

Comment by CA renter
2007-12-15 00:41:03

So true, Wiz.

 
 
Comment by joe momma
2007-12-15 00:06:07

Well well well…

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071214/congress_mortgage_crisis.html

The plan is to jack up the loan limits and then take all the bad loans and stick the public with the bill. All in the name of helping the homeowners!

Where have I heard this scenario before??? This crap is too easy to see coming. Wall Street Gangsters paid a lot of money for the politicians. They will be paid back.

What a COMPLETE fool I was not to speculate on housing or stocks! Our government is there to rescue them if something goes wrong. And if something does go wrong, guess who pays?

 
Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-15 00:17:16

test

 
Comment by ronin
2007-12-15 05:46:16

Lydia Playuh says: ““‘You don’t need to wait around for six months to decide if your price is right,’ said Player. ‘If we don’t get an offer in the first few weeks, we need a price reduction.’””

Real estate professionals are savvy experts whose knowledge of the market and professional professionalism are absolute requirements for you to even think of selling your house.

Playuh reveals her strategy: Pick a professional price for the house. If despite professional selling skills it does not sell, cut the price again. Repeat.

This is the crafty insider grokking the confusing maze for the ignorant mortgage-holder, thereby justifying 7%

 
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