Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For December 15, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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U.S. Housing Crash Deepens in 2008 After Record Drop
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=af2DBA6IKMLA&refer=home
Time to implement trading collars for housing prices?
In fourth-quarter 2007, trading collars will be implemented as follows:
A decline in the NYA of 190 points or more will require all index-arbitrage sell orders of the S&P 500 stocks to be stabilizing, or sell plus[1], for the remainder of the day, unless on the same trading day, the NYA advances 90 points or less below its previous day’s close.
An advance in the NYA of 190 points or more will require all index-arbitrage buy orders of the S&P 500 stocks to be stabilizing, or buy minus[2], for the remainder of the day, unless the NYA retreats to 90 points or less above its previous day’s close.
The restrictions will be re-imposed each time the NYA advances or declines 190 points from its previous day’s close.
http://www.nyse.com/press/1190976728663.html
Time to implement trading collars for housing prices?
an immediate 0.25% rate cut from Uncle Ben for every percentage point decline in average home prices is already in the bag I guess … maybe the people on Capitol Hill can arrange a special law that prevents any home sale at more than 5% below the previous sales price?
“0.25% rate cut from Uncle Ben for every percentage point decline in average home prices”
He’s going to run out of 0.25% increments pretty quickly at that rate…
The fed can’t stop this and they know it. Hard to bring down an elephant with a bb gun. It will be interesting to see how long rates react to the new FHA proposal. Will the bond market view this as inflationary?
I don’t think much inflation will happen if the limit on the size of “low income housing” loan that can be taxpayer-guaranteed is capped at $417,000, as proposed in the Senate’s version of the bill. If the House gets their version passed, it might be a different story. There is nothing like the thought of someone else living in a coastal McMansion with a $729,750 taxpayer-provided loan guarantee to make me want to start looking around for my lost pitch fork.
From the SD Union Trib article linked below:
“Whether the Senate bill would help San Diego County homeowners is in doubt. It would raise the maximum mortgage the FHA can insure in high-cost areas such as California and the Northeast to $417,000 from $362,790 – the same level as loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The median-priced home in San Diego County sold for $460,000 in October – a drop of 6.1 percent from one year earlier but still higher than the proposed Senate maximum.
The House version of the bill would raise the maximum mortgage limit to $729,750 in high-cost areas, with the higher limit a point of contention among the House, Senate and the White House.”
This is all part of the plan. Like I’ve posted over and over, the plan is to jack up the FHA limits high enough to be able to refi all the bad loans out of the private sector and onto the public.
The goal is to offload the bad loans onto the public. How they do it is irrelevant. As long as the loans are insured lending will continue. Jumbos are dead because they are not insured. Once higher FHA limits are enacted, liquidity returns.
All part of the Wall Street Gangster plan.
‘the plan is to jack up the FHA limits high enough to be able to refi all the bad loans out of the private sector and onto the public.’
Where is(are) the risk premium(s)?
I smell the same thing going on too, but if a soft landing is what is being concocted, will J6P just forget so easily what the falling knives did to others? Maybe, given the floor that a temp reprieve will create for pricing.
LMFAO! There’s a waverunner too! It should have a vanity tag too!
How about “CustomSinks”
Congress to the rescue! 100% LTV and 1.5% down! Get your McMansion while they last!
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s110-2338
If they need verifiable income then it still won’t help. They can’t qualify at these prices. They can do all of this bailout talk. I’ve bought into the “Ben Jones School of Bailout Thinking”. Keep rearranging the deck chairs. NYCityBoy is going to continue to work hard, save money and enjoy life. We’ll see how it turns out. Something tells me that I have a better chance of making it through this okay than any of the FBs and future FBs that will be impacted by any bailout.
What gets me is they are in jumbo loan territory, if they want to help the low end, fine. I wonder how this will play out, Bush said he has some concerns, was it the high dollar or LTV amount?
“If they need verifiable income then it still won’t help. They can’t qualify at these prices.”
Ahhh, and that’s it. In the places that really matter, any changes in FHA guidelines won’t really matter. Fully documented incomes with DTI’s required to be lower than 40%? Ain’t gonna happen - no way, no how! Not to mention documenting source of funds. Even though it’s only 1.5%, you still have additional closing costs to come up with and source those funds as well. Now, throw on top of that the reserve requirements, and you have to source those funds too. And all of these funds must be seasoned. You could be looking at sourcing and seasoning over 10K. Long story short, the first time buyer of the last 3 years is still on the outside looking in.
“Even though it’s only 1.5%, you still have additional closing costs to come up with and source those funds as well.”
It’s a damn shame the Fed’s War on Savers has successfully reduced us to a country with a negative national (household) savings rate. What low income household has accumulated savings of 1.5 percent of $417,000 = $6,255 for a downpayment, plus whatever closing costs are needed to buy a coastal McMansion? And then there is the other problem of repaying the loan (and I guess that is where the taxpayer-provided guarantee would come in handy if you were the lender taking the risk of making this loan).
Verifiable income? I am sure they will fast-track it and make exceptions. And the “talk” of bailout is turning into “action”. But I somewhat agree that a bailout may not be the cure all to the debacle, but it will soften and lengthen the slide. That means stickier prices for a lot longer. This could drag out for 10 years. Am I going to wait for 10 years? Will you?
It might be time to give up the thought of home ownership. Doesn’t appear to be an option in the USA.
if countrywide and all are experts at faking income and documentation for the MBS-s they sell to their best clients, what makes you think they cant fake this documentation for the federal agencies.
NYCityBoy is going to continue to work hard, save money and enjoy life.
There are some on this blog who think that whatever you do will be futile in the next few years. I don’t subscribe to that pessimism, although I’m no optimist. Nevertheless, I’m still buying stock mutual funds every month as long as I’m employed. Also precious metal bullion and government securities. Don’t know which way this bomb will blow.
At least these FHA loans are better than those scuzzy subprime loans, thanks in part to lower down payment requirements for taxpayer guaranteed FHA loans.
The bill also tries to make FHA loans more attractive than risky subprime loans by accepting lower down payments and expanding the eligibility for counseling for homeowners having difficulty with mortgage payments.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071215/news_1b15mortgage.html
Just thinking out loud at the typewriter here… do you think the economists who advise the Congress on these bailouts are smart enough to know how sucky these programs are? Or is it more that they are too blinded by money and power to see it (or say it)?
Really -histronics do not lend credibility.
(1) FHA loans increse from $362 to $417. Va loans are the same as Fannie and Freddie -$417,000, and now so are FHA.
Yawn
(2) FHA down has been 3% for eons. That mean $3300 on a $110,000 house. Same house 25 years later is now $222,000. 1.5% is $3300. FHA borrowers never have had much in downpayment requirements - and they are STILL more than required by the VA which will do, and always has done, 100% LTV. Yawn.
And how many people are going to qualify when all the criteria still apply?
(1) Debt/income ratios with 30-31% cap on mortgage, taxes and insurance and 40-41% cap on total fixed debt (mortgage et al plus credit cards, car loan etc)
(2) Property has to appraise. (Those now able to refinance into an FHA loan under this change will have to appraise so current loan is not more than the appraised value. No upside-downers here.)
(3) 620 and up FICA
(4) Pass the dreaded - and I do mean ‘dreaded’ - home inspection by FHA staff. Those people flunk a house for a tear in the linoleum at the back of the refrigerator space. Fix their list before closing or the deal is off. (Unless it is a special program for rehabilitation loans and then they want signed contracts with a contractor.)
Don’t get hysterical until you know what you are talking about.
This doesn’t change anything at all in any statistically significant manner nor will it have any substantial effect on much of anything.
“histronics”
Can’t find that on Merriam-Webster online — what the F is histronics? (Something like ebonics I am guessing?)
histrionics, just an “i” short, which is also funny on a certain level considering the definition.
what the F is histronics?
It’s a simple typo.
Lemme help you out there:
http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/histrionics
What the F- are histronics — somefing like ebonics?
Now that ’s a w00t!
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=woot
Take yo credibility and shuv it. This is a blog, and I am in the mood for venting.
Just joking, glad to see it will be a wash.
“This doesn’t change anything at all in any statistically significant manner nor will it have any substantial effect on much of anything.”
What kind of fookin’ nonsense is this? Did you conduct a classical hypothesis test?
Why don’t you present some credible analysis to explain why Congress likes to pass bailout measures that apply to almost nobody? Isn’t that a fraudulent waste of taxpayer dollars in and of itself to pass laws that have no effect on the supposed beneficiaries of the policy?
Don’t underestimate pressure from above, though. It won’t be guys beating on desks with baseball bats, but there will be pressure to look the other way on some things.
I’m not convinced that the underwriting and appraisals will be the same old standards on these GSE’s . There are to many brokers out there that know how to submit a nice looking package that isn’t true ,and the system is corrupt still .
If the true intent of the powers is to provide easy money to stimulate the economy ,than the underwriting and appraisals will be liberal . If the true intent of the powers is to provide a recourse for bag-holders to pass the hot potatoes on refinances ,than the underwriting and appraisals will be liberal (in spite of guidelines ).
Next we are going to see some special funding programs ,(in the name of prevention of foreclosures ),that give direct grants to upside down borrowers that can’t get the property to appraise .The spin on this bailout is to sell the public on the idea that foreclosures will bring down their property values ,so it’s in their best interest to embrace the give-a-ways .When taxes are raised down the road and inflation eats everybody alive ,the public will be told the same old BS.
The good Senators in favor of bail-outs talk about how FB’s were tricked into a toxic mortgages . If they think that homeowners were “tricked ” ,than make the lenders and profession that tricked people ,who made 40k a year into going on a 500k mortgage, pay ,…..oh,.. according to contract law ,that is the party that is suppose to pay .What ever happened to the rule of law and legal remedy ? Let the lenders alter their own loans and it’s not the taxpayers fault that SIV and CDO trenches were set up to be in conflict of interest with investor bundles . The greedy jerks that set up these loan investment instruments did not provide for real estate going down and I call that a faulty instrument ,(no wonder the investors are threatening lawsuits ).
In summary :
SIV’s and CDO’s are faulty investment instruments in that the trenches were set up to be in conflict of interest with the investors within the same bundles of loans ,if many foreclosures take place .
SIV’s and CDO’s were faulty investment instruments (set up by Wall Street ),in that they were rated as being less risky than they really were . Fraud models or real estate going down was not included in the risk factors or the inherent risk in low down loans .Models were based on default risks of borrowers from more prudent lending cycles in the past ,who had skin in the game ,and a requirement of qualifying .
Lenders breached their duty to prevent fraud and underwrite loans ,allowing unqualified borrowers and speculators to obtain easy low down financing ,causing a false market in countless areas ,while they passed on the risk to the secondary market who did not regulate or underwrite the packages they were accepting from the commissioned sales people .
Wall Street encouraged fraud by paying higher commissions on the worst loans that encouraged unregulated loan agents and members of the REIC to commit fraud or help borrower commit fraud on loan applications .
Wall Street designed loans that were faulty on their face because it contributed to allowance of borrowers with no money or true qualification to purchase inflated real estate ,which was sitting people up for a big fall if they couldn’t refinance or if real estate went down . Thus ,there are inherent flaws in loans that require future financing in order for the borrower to remain qualified . The industry also qualified buyers on teaser rates ,which insured that the borrower would be forced into a need to refinance on a new teaser rate because the adjusted up payment of the real interest rate would be beyond ability of the borrower to pay .
Loans that are designed to throw the borrower into default with inability to sell unless real estate goes up or money is available for a refinance ,are flawed and should of been rated at the highest risk levels that a loan could merit like FFF.
So because the loans are flawed on the face ,and cannot be considered anything but a trick by Wall Street ,combined with lending application fraud by loan agents ,appraisers , and realtors and their borrowers ,the taxpayers should not pay .
The attempt is to get the borrowers out of these faulty notes legally because loan modification will not erase the inherent flaws with this investment instrument or the lender/borrowers fraud with obtaining them . The bail-outs are a attempt to change the rules after the fact and legally change the Wall Street designed tricker loans .The borrowers were willing to go on these flawed loans and lie because of the potential for profit or not being priced out of the market .
Very well said, Wiz!!!
Hey,as an old FHA appraiser/inspector I reject your comment.
there is a good reason for strictness in appraising and inspecting, and that is to ensure that the house will not require repairs before the buyer has lived in the house long enough to have some equity and be willing to keep the house in good condition.
One of the problems now evident is that the appraisers/inspectors were not reviewed and/or required to look at the house thoroughly.
I found new houses with structural defects that had passed the city/county inspections when I looked at them for FHA.
We should have had stricter inspections throughout the USA
`There were some signs there, but I don’t think anyone anticipated the level of dislocation that was actually created.”
Oh, really?
Fannie Mae says (in james’s post) existing home sales will decline 12% in 2008 and existing home prices will decline 4.5%. No big deal. /sarcasm off
Wait, Hicks the trucker is working “past retirement age” at 65? Did the SS law change or something?
Speaking of SSA rules: at some point (certainly by age 65) you’re not going to get any more credits by paying more into FICA, i.e. your benefits aren’t going to increase. Point being, Hicks should change his name to Juan Jimenez #789,433 and get paid under the table.
I have a class B, and I assume class A is the same … there are some companies (perhaps not strangely, run by Latinos) which pay part-time drivers in cold, hard, cash. No 1099.
I have friends who do this … hey, go ahead. You’re a black dude with few tangible assets. Chances are you’ll never be audited, and there’s no proof you worked there anyway.
Not for me… I have assets to protect. Also, two of their regular drivers got into a knife fight five years ago … ugh.
Speaking of SSA rules: at some point (certainly by age 65) you’re not going to get any more credits by paying more into FICA, i.e. your benefits aren’t going to increase.
You are WRONG!
For every year that you work past retirement age (now OVER 65 but just under 66 and it is rising eventually to 67), your retirement benefits increase by 8% a year.
So if you are eligible for $1287 a month at age 65+, if you work until 70 and do not draw benefits, it becomes $1777+/- a month.
Idea was that increasing the benefits in return for delaying drawing SS and staying in the workforce would encourage people to wait and keep working.
Means testing is coming, some will end up working longer for less benefits.
You can work and still draw Social Security retirement.
You can draw SS at age 62 - under the age for full retirement.
If you are under full retirement age (and it is now over 65 and pushing towards 66 - age is going up), you can earn up to $12,960 and about that limit, $1 in SS is deducted for every $2 earned.
If you are over full retirement age, you can earn $34,440 and above that $1 in SS is deducted for every $3 earned.
Sorry - I left out part, and skipped a step.
In the year which you reach full retirement age, you can earn the $34,440 with the 1::3 reduction.
After you reach full retirement age, you can keep working and receive all your SS retirement.
Take a look at these pictures, can anyone figure out why he wants to sell this car, or if anything else is for sale…extra points for deciphering the plate.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/2006-Mercedes-CLS-55-Presidential-Edition-Very-Rare_W0QQitemZ130181640462QQihZ003QQcategoryZ124125QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
I’ve heard that everyone who buys a Mcmansion in 2008 gets one of these in the deal
LOL. RSL Properties sitting next to a half finished house.
Obviously a builder gone bust.
Livin’ la vida loan loco…
“This is an excellent example of a supercar that boasts incredable raw power,sophistiscation and sex appeal.”
Too bad it doesn’t include a spell check program. I might bid so I too can be “sophistiscated”. That would be “incredable”. This has to be a REICster.
RSLPROP - Could it be “resale property”? I doubt it.
I always thought cars like that boast an incrediblely small….asset.
NYCityBoy only owns a Metrocard.
What should that license plate read? I will give this a shot. Here’s my suggestion.
IMBROKE
how ’bout
HELPME
Awww heck, I better not start…..this could go on and on and on.
Do you think the jet ski and pickup have “sophistiscation and sex appeal” ?
That Poland Springs bottle sure spells sophistiscation. He drinks the good stuff. Here’s another shot.
FKDBRWR
Driving up to Maine yesterday, I saw a contractor’s truck with a license plate that read PAYME.
they usually do.. but this one’s got 4 freakin’ doors.. “hey bae.. dig these wheels.. yeah, i have a family but they think i’m at work”.
EBay username implies it is girl
There is an RSL Properties, but it is in California. RSL apparently also means “registered social landlord”? No builders in NH called RSL. Google search of “rslprop” hits….. this page! Conclusion, I need to find a hobby.
The “berry red” interior “reeks of class”
specifically, lower class
RSLPROP - Could it be “resale property”? I doubt it.
Actually, I think he filled out the form for his “vanity” plate incorrectly.
I”m sure he meant to write “LSRPROP”
her ebay handle:’
rltygrl
could that be realtygirl ? No, couldn’t be. They always make wads of money.
“her ebay handle:’ could that be realtygirl ?”
“hosebag” must have been taken.
Good Golly….
and here I thought it was a man that was selling the car.
“Contact Jim at (603)759-0992 ”
Obviously not woman enough to sell her own car though.
“dealerships in the country received one of these commentary flagships”
??
This is an “incredably sophistiscated” spelling of “complimentary”
The photos are undoubtedly NH. This moronic display of 2001-2006 pseudo-wealth in New England is why I want to see the wheels come off the economy if for no other reason. $1000 in my wallet say these azzholes aren’t the frugal, hardworking yankee natives of the past. These clowns are metro morons without any question. Look what the frig they’ve done. Look at it….And before the resident screech monkeys bemoan “exeter your jealous”, let me say I see nothing wrong with wealth. It’s what these people do with it and the misunderstood observations by those watching. I’ve seen more natives chase this pseudo wealth and destroy themselves and their family’s future. They don’t understand that what they’re seeing is illusory. It’s not real. It’s not factual. It’s garish, wasteful, unfulfilling and will bleed the life out of you.
And you can stop telling me how great the economy is and how we’re evolving and that we’re #1.
Thanks for the post Pete. /rant off
I’ve seen a lot of scions of wealthy, working class families (the ones who wintered in Florida) buy RE they couldn’t afford. The sad thing is, these homes were once affordable. Now they’re not. And you get stuck with the Boston Public Schools (or Malden, or Dedham, or Brockton) to boot.
Why do their parents let them do this?!? I have noticed the working class ethic is toss the kids out and let them sink or swim. It’s always been that way, but I guess in the last generation or two that class has made real money. Too bad that didn’t come with money management skills.
Human capital is all well and good, but the trouble with being working class is that a physical injury can hit you at any time. It’s a hard knock life, for real.
So why didn’t RLTYGRL take the $69K offer? Dumbgrl.
Because she owes $96k.
What’s up with that McMansion with the first floor being just a stone wall, the lot looks flat, why is the house perched on top of that huge (ugly in my opinion) stone foundation?
Anecdotal stuff…
At Kohl’s yesterday picking up a couple gifts and saw they have most of their Christmas decorations already marked down 50%, 60% and even 70%!
Am I the only one who remembers when women would line up outside the Hallmark stores the day after Christmas to get wrapping paper and cards on sale? Now it is December 14 and everything is half off or more and nobody is buying it.
I also noticed lots of people in line, but most people were buying only a few items and most of them were small gift type things, nothing major.
And speaking of discounts…
Saw Starbucks has their gift items and Christmas coffee blends 20% off already.
And I got a postcard from local Hallmark shop yesterday for $2 off $10.
These are really unheard of at this time of the shopping season.
This is in West Michigan and things really aren’t all that bad here (relatively speaking).
The retailers will be singing “I had a blue Christmas without you…” this year.
Sallie
–
This is called deflation, Sallie. Unfortunately, inflationists don’t do their homework and understand the process. Inflation rate peaks few months into the recessions and then goes down sharply.
We have been in recession for 2-3 months and that means that inflation rate is peaking and by Sep’08 there will be outright deflation in the US. The main driver of inflation, for the past 5 years, was pushing of debt on households and that process is coming to an abrupt end. No mo mo-ney (to spend) means no mo inflation, with time lag, of course.
Jas
The horror of deflation scares the heck out of me. I can’t stand the thought of the money I have saved having more buying power. It freaks me to think that my responsible ways will be rewarded. I am petrified at the thought of irresponsible fools not being able to afford SUVs, plasma TVs and cell phones.
Won’t the government please keep me from being rewarded for my hard work and living within my means?
Not to worry. Wars on Savers eventually lead to deflation or currency destruction, and I am voting for deflation, given that home prices in San Diego have officially deflated by 10 percent already, and my own research shows that list prices (which tend to drop slower than market values) have already deflated by 13 percent since last spring. I really don’t believe it is different in NYC, as all housing market finance is global.
If fear were a commodity in NYC I would be taking a long position. It is going up every day.
Wow, so … not immune any longer.
I had been wondering. Finance, which was neck deep in the stuff, drank the koolaid on housing longer than anyone else.
all housing market finance is global
well, just maybe if you allow for huge delays… The easy money still flows without restraint in Europe, and in most of Europe and Asia home prices are still going up while the top in the US was already 1-1.5 years ago. Does not look very global yet … also, homeprices in Netherlands and a few other countries were rising at doubledigit rates nearly 10 years before the US bubble started …
How can there be deflation with the money supply (M3) increasing at 15% a year?
especially when M3 is increasing at similar or even higher rates in most 1st and 2nd world countries …
How can there be deflation with the money supply (M3) increasing at 15% a year?
I’m not worried about which way it will go (inflation or deflation). Just buy precious metals and treasury notes.
Deflation has its own problems.
Yes - prices decrease and $1 buys more……
and incomes decrease so you have fewer $1s
The horror of deflation is the desparate people who have been thrown out of work and have no money to buy food. The real horror is when they start smacking you in the head with a brick in order to obtain the money to buy food.
They won’t be smacking you in the head with a brick.
Won’t gold deflate as well in your scenario?
Thanks for the shopping report, sallie. But the Commerce department yesterday reported that November retail sales were up!
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1.2 percent last month, also double what economists had forecast and the biggest gain since May.
Personally, I believe sallie over the government.
The report actually said that November sales are up over October sales. Which of course they are every year, since the end of November is in the “Holiday” buying season. What they don’t say is how this October/November upswing compares to that of prior years. The number is conspicuous by its absence, since the intention of that report is not to inform, but to obfuscate.
Further: Buried in the report is the note that over half of that increase is due to food and gas.
Finally, the remaining retail numbers are below even the official “CPI” inflation numbers, so are a net loss.
–
“But the Commerce department yesterday reported that November retail sales were up!”
That is because sales volume went up more than the sales $s, i.e., price reductions led to more sales. Also, early TG helped.
Jas
And those pesky details buried in the report show that the bulk of the spending increase went to food and gasoline.
Actual ‘go shopping spending’ was .6% and the details pointed out that retailers had done mega-discounts to get people in to buy for Xmas, that customers bought the discounted stuff and probably will back off now.
It concluded with basically ‘don’t expect much in retail in Dec - Aunt Tilly and Uncle Jake bought the bargains and went to the house.’
And still turning a (lower) profit! Shows you how much they mark this stuff up.
I still line up on the morning of December 26th for the Crate & Barrel sale. I get all my wrapping paper, ribbons, tags, plus cool ornaments as stocking stuffers, so when Christmas rolls around the following year, I am ready. Great sale.
“Am I the only one who remembers when women would line up outside the Hallmark stores the day after Christmas to get wrapping paper and cards on sale?”
No more wrapping paper, ribbons, tags… we just use those festive bags. And then save them for re-use next year. Greening out.
Don’t understand hoarding wrapping paper at all…….it just means that you have to deal with this crap in your closet for a year.
Driving along Sunset Blvd. (LA) last night and saw many stores with 15-50% discount signs. Also, Chin Chin (Spelling?) was empty along with many other eating establishments. It was early around 6:30 pm so that may account for the lack of business.
The last show of the LA Van Halen concert was sold out. (I received free tickets.). My friend was offered pit tickets for $1700 two week ago. Day of show at 9 AM $500, offered $400 but call me by 12. Received call at 3PM will sell for $400. Sorry bought same tickets for $150. You have to love the free market.
I saw those sales. Thing is, they overpriced the ornaments 200% so it LOOKS like a steal at 50% off.
OT
Air of inevitability escaping
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-clinton15dec15,0,2904401.story?coll=la-home-center
How about a Co-Presidency of Obama & Paul?
Young genius, mentored by old pro in matters financial & political..
Speaking of Ron Paul, Glenn Beck on CNN Headline News is supposed to interview him for the full hour this Tuesday at 7 pm eastern. Check your local listings for your time zone!
Saw Ron Paul stickers plastered on various places in my travels around Baltimore this balmy 35 degree day. What a beautiful sight!
aladin: that would be a very odd couple!
Both are deep-rooted in practicality, not so different.
A “co-Presidency” of Obamba and Ron Paul is impossible. Obamba, like his putative Wall Street approved rivals, is bought and paid for by the predatory financial and banking oligarchy that controls our political and media establishment. [See link] Ron Paul scares the bejesus out of them, and he’s got far too much integrity to team with with a Wall Street puppet like Obamba.
http://rabbit-hole-journey.blogspot.com/2007/11/campaign-contributors-of-media-anointed.html
Ron Paul and Obama. Capitalist and commie. Won’t do.
Trying to connect with women voters. That’s funny. I don’t know a single woman who can stand the sight of her.
I hear she’s had a few women in her day that enjoyed her company. I think she was referring to it in the following quote.
“You go up, you go down. [It’s] all part of a vigorous, dynamic election cycle,” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
I give that comment 10 more minutes to live.
“You go up, you go down. It’s all part of a vigorous, dynamic erection cyle.” — Monica Lewinski.
OK, that was just wrong, but I couldn’t resist.
If she makes it into office, I’m moving to Canada.
I said that when Bush was running for office … but I didn’t. Damn.
Wow, double punishment. You must be quite the masochist.
Every time I see the sight of Madam Frigidaire, my mind starts conjecturing about what drives pols to philandering…
Most pols will sodomize interns and taxpayers with equal gusto.
Apparently, she is very popular with white working class women, perhaps you are just too high up the socio-economic scale to get her gig, Chick.
That’s the difference between Texas and California. Hillary will easily win the California Democratic primary. She is very popular here.
“She is very popular here.”
So was paying $600,000 for tear-downs in questionable neighborhoods.
Though she would be my third choice for the nomination, she has been a very good Senator.
Now if you want to talk about someone who should never hold elective office again, we can talk about Rudy.
Ed,
what makes you say she’s been a good senator? Exactly what has she done for the state…except use it as a base for her personal political ambitions? Serious question.
Ensuring New York gets the Homeland Security money it needs comes to mind.
Here is an analysis of her career.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Hillary_Clinton
I read this and think she’s been a pretty good Senator, something the voters in NY overwhelmingly agreed with in the last election. You might disagree. Anyway I do say she is not my first choice for the nomination. But i would vote for her in a second over any of the GOP candidates.
HP: No recession in ‘08
AG: Recession risks are increasing
BB: ???
Guardian: TED alert!
Not sure about recession? Look to US bond marketReuters Friday December 14 2007
By Burton Frierson
NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The warning signs of recession have been flashing in the bond market and may show officials are already too late to prevent the economic rut they have been scrambling to avoid.
Before the Federal Reserve banded together with central banks this week to end the global credit crunch, a closely watched beacon of financial distress known as the “TED spread” was broadcasting its own “danger” alert.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7153678
Was the need to squelch a market-driven recession signal a main purpose of the CBs “banding together”?
But……..it’s all contained……..YES?
‘AHEAD OF THE CURVE
A longer-term recession signal, the yield curve of U.S. government bonds inverted late last year and remained out of kilter well into the first half of 2007.
The curve represents the yields of short-term and long-term U.S. Treasuries. Long-term rates are usually higher than short-term yields, except in times of economic stress.
Similar inversions spelled trouble in the past.
“We were in there for a good long period of time and I think it’s important to note that every recession of the last 50 years has been preceded by an inverted curve,” said O’Donnell.
In many cases the yield curve had returned to a positive slope or was nearly there before the onset of recession.’
Down the waterfall we go — WHEE!!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=TYX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=7&freq=1&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=tnx&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
Maybe Huck@bee is worth a look?
Huck@bee Talks Tough on Mortgage Bailout
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17265301
“Maybe Huck@bee is worth a look?”
No, thanks.
Roy Beck of NumbersUSA - the most effective grassroots group standing up to Republicrat efforts to amnesty illegals and loosen restrictions on immigration even further to depress wages for the benefit of their corporate masters - calls Huckabee’s record on immigration “an absolute disaster.” Just what we need in the White House - NOT!
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/11/30/huckabee_draws_fire_on_immigration/7892/
Yeah no thanks. Too much of a Bible thumper. Ron Paul instead.
No.
no! we need fiscal responsibility, but not packaged in fire & brimstone!
So would that be worse than fiscal irresponsibility packaged in secular zealotry? I think they all stink but it doesn’t seem that the Religious Left is any better than the Religious Right. Maybe we should just vote based upon their actions and tell them all to leave their religious beliefs out of it. That includes the religions of communism, socialism and welfarism.
Unfortunately, for the large voting populace in the red states, religion is a big issue. Ignoring it wouldn’t work. Hey . . . I don’t agree with it but there it is. Come down here during an election and listen to the commercials . . . that is if you can while retaining your last meal.
I lived in the South for a bunch of years before moving here. Guns and god went together like peanut butter and jelly. The denominations that people chose seemed to depend on whether you hold the snake by the head or the tail. I always asked the “hypoChristians” (term I developed after a few years) to let me know which segments of this world’s population I was supposed to hate and want dead. That usually went over very well. The fact that they could vote was very sad. It was like knowing the Kennedys get to vote.
When religion doesn’t come through, and people are suffering financial hardship and worse…
It’s doubtful that events of over 2,000 years ago, will mean as much as they once did, in a prosperous America.
“I always asked the “hypoChristians” (term I developed after a few years) to let me know which segments of this world’s population I was supposed to hate and want dead.”
I knew I liked you, NYCboy. Sounds like something I’d do. My term was “Haters for Jesus”
–
Chick,
Who said, religion is the opium of the masses? Was it Marx?
Jas
And then he attempted to create his own religion called “communism”. He made that statement to try to kill the competition which is heaven based religions. Marx knew that he was not creating a political or economic system but a religion. His religion just happened to be based upon heaven on earth. It even came with saints and devils just like Christianity.
Communism is the opiate of the elites.
Right on NYCityBoy! Whether you agree with any particular religion or not, I’m coming around to the conclusion that organized religion is NECESSARY for a well-functioning society (incidentally, that’s what most of the founders believed too).
Religion serves as a counterbalance to the religion of the state. There seems to be something deep in the human condition/psyche that causes us to seek “answers to our prayers”. If it’s not God, people will seek their “answers” through the State, with dire consequences. That is exactly why Communists (and big-government liberals) are practically always hostile to religion. Eliminate the competition, as you said.
Guys, guys — what’s wrong with reality?
I’ll take my secularism, thank you.
The words “reality” and the “secular left” have no business being muttered in the same sentence. The secularists we have running around are the most delusional group of people we have. Everything, including people, is just a concept to them.
And what elements of the “secular left” do not deal with reality? Science? History? Economics?
Who on the “secular left” are you talking about? Dawkins? Krugman?
The masses do not have to have a god, but there has to be a devil.
It’s so much easier to blame and hate another or better yet a group of others, than to face up to the reality that your troubles are of you own making. Politicians and other deceivers know this. Hitler used this and demonized many groups so that the German people could blame others for their woes. We see it every day. We are called bitter renters and the MSM is blamed for the Housing Bust.
‘We are called bitter renters and the MSM is blamed for the Housing Bust.’
Ah,yes, and bitter renters have dodged a bullet or two as of late.
Wow, there it is: Religious left. Never seen it in print.
The beginning of the end with my last GF was when I matter-of-factly said: “There’s such a thing as a religious left, too, you know.” (BTW, I’m most definitely not a member of the religious right).
Drove her absolutely right out of her skin - she insulted me for an hour and I couldn’t calm her down. I have since decided that they are The 11 Words That Will Drive Liberals Crazy.
I first saw the term Religious Left on “The Daily Objectivist” web site. That site is long gone. The guy who ran it had daily thought-provoking articles about defense, philosophy (objectivist-leaning of course), new left environmentalism which he called the religious left. If the guy was alive today he would say Al Gore is the religious left leader. He was correct that we need to fear the religious left more than the Christian right. Of course, I have to mention here that I’m an atheist and kind of a hedonist before the liberal nuts call me a Christian right in their replies.
What we need is Ron Paul to set this country straight.
I was shocked and awed a couple of days ago driving home from work by a group of San Diego sign wavers along the side of a busy street. Rather than advertising condo flips, their signs all said “Ron Paul for President.”
The Ron Paul “meetup group” here in PA is always organizing sign-waving demonstrations. Not surprised to hear that this tactic is national. Hope to see more of it.
North County Fair (shopping mall) in Escondido, CA, had a bunch up people with car-sized signs for Ron Paul at the freeway offramp. Called my bro to celebrate.
I hope you all know exactly what Ron Paul stands for. I hope none of you are voting for him merely because he is not Bush. I was a hard core libertarian from 1979 to 2001 and even held a minor office in California - even was the campaign manager of a California State Assembly candidate (Libertarian Party). Otherwise even if we get Ron Paul for 2009-2012, which is highly unlikely), you guys will vote for a communist to take effect in 2013.
I’m back to being a Libertarian after 6 years of supporting Bush (2000 through 2006). I gave up on Bush after 1) $560 billion prescription medical benefit, 2) attempted sale of US ports to the towel heads, 3) Bush’s stance on immigration, and 4) this FB bailout fiasco.
JMS, you forgot to end your post with the “sarcasm off” meta-tag.
There was a show on PBS last night about Ron Paul’s unique organization. It seems that people who found his message on the internet acted independently to start raising money for him. Very different than the usual “top-down” political organization. His supporters organize Ron Paul events, and he doesn’t attend, and he has no control over what they do or say. Very libertarian, very unique. He is up to about 10% in national polling now.
I agree — I would never vote for him, no matter how much good sense he spoke about the folly of bailing out fools.
Never say never, Prof. Huckabee will likely be the nominee. I think the Republican party powers-that-be are scared to death of him, however, and will try figure out a way to stop him. So then who will it be, Rudy or Mitt?
If Mitt has issues over his religion, I would think Huck Bee would have far larger ones. I for one will not vote for a Southern Baptist minister, solely on the basis of my personal experiences with that sect. (I don’t claim to represent the typical American voter, but I am pretty sure many others share my misgivings…)
The pseudo-Christians will NEVER accept Romney and naturally, they hate the sinner Guiliani.
The old recycled “socialize medicine” lie along with the other assorted fables like “taxcuts pay for themselves” ain’t gonna fly this time folks. The last 7 years are evidence of that. The angry, empty ideologies of both left and right have lost their luster and whoever gets nominated will have to stand up to the rusty status quo of Wall Street, Religious Wrong, the Palestinian panderers and war pigs, NOW/NARAL, and the angry hateful screech monkeys.
NARAL’s still around ?
Huckabee will not be the nominee. Iowa and NH and SC aren’t Florida and California. Also, as the lower-down Republicans start dropping out they are all going to line up behind either Giuliani or Romney. When McCain and Thomspon and the rest pull out, they will make a big deal about who they are backing - and it ain’t gonna be Hayseed Huckabee. Being truly religious is fine; not believing in evolution makes you a nut case. Not to mention once being 100 pounds overweight - very un-Christian, IMO.
But Huck’s got Chuck, in his campaign team…
W.W.C.N.D.?
Wow, I’m surprised at him. Just when I had written him off as an impossible nanny-stater. I just hope he really means what he says, but he sounds like he’s given it some thought at least.
FYI, he is not exactly a fire-and-brimstone style preacher. Most your preachers these days are all soft and cuddly and loath to offend anyone.
I’m going to give him another look, since I’m voting in our caucus 2/5.
I always find it interesting to see people who claim they are open-minded to be truly close-minded (of course they will never see or admit it).
No matter who you vote for, you vote for the candidate whose beliefs and core values you like the most. If the candidate continued to change those beliefs on what he thinks was popular at the time, then you would feel betrayed when that time arrived.
After listening to Mike Huckabee, it seems that he believes in responsible government (balanced budget), flat tax (fair to everyone), and is pretty much in the center socially.
If he gets the Republican nomination, I think he may win it all….especially if Hillary or Obama wins the left. On the other hand, if Bill Richardson or Joe Biden win, all bets are off.
After looking at Ron Paul, the guy is out there and sure as hell never really looked at American history. From the get-go, America has always gone beyond our borders with the military (beginning with President Jefferson and the pirates of Tripoli). The only time that we stayed within or borders and attempted to be isolationists was during the 1930’s and looked what eventually happened (”A day that will live in infamy.”). Only in ignorant fool would think that if we resorted to that again would we live in happy-happy land.
I’ll probably vote for John McCain. I like his record. Besides I think he is the only candidate that has served in the military and has two sons in the military. I think the idea of him sending his boys into harm’s way will make him think twice about doing it.
I had a Command Sergeant Major in the Army (infantry, of course), who all the men feared and loved at the same time. This guy was an animal. This bear of a man would tear up men half his age in physical training. He would cuss you out and you would sit there and love the guy. His colorful language would make sailors look like choir boys. Same time, he believed in God.
If you really looked at Ron Paul you would know that He also served in the Air Force. As for isolationist thats not his position. FDR was certaintly not Isolationist leading up to WWII. It can be said that he activly worked to get us into the war.
I liked Mccain over Bush but has since proved he is a pandering dirt bag in his old age (MCcain Fiengold, Immigration reform). He is bought and paid for.
If you dont like Ron Paul thats fine, but you should at least inform yourself of his actual positions.
We already have plenty of ayatollahs in the world.
Home / Analysis
When a bailout is a bailout
Terence Corcoran, Financial Post
Published: Saturday, December 15, 2007
Don’t call it a bailout, they say. Call it a temporary facility to relieve short-term liquidity problems. Or, as the Bank of Canada put it this week, these are “measures designed to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets.” More grandly, call it a noble attempt to save the financial system from chaos.
The word “bailout” implies throwing rescue money or policies at economic players who should be forced to deal with their own problems. Nobody in government likes to admit to engineering bailouts, but that’s exactly what’s taking shape in Canada’s financial markets.
http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/story.html?id=181ae4a2-07b6-4496-b125-86dae8d3f367&k=84704
I hate that bulls–t line of “we’re doing this for the Joneses”. If you don’t save us then it will be even worse. That is the slimiest trick in the book. Politicians use it all the time. Musharraf uses the “you have to back me or it could be so much worse” line. Putin has used it. The Soviet leaders used to use it. I even hear it at work. “We can’t let Citi or BofA fall. That would end our economy as we know it.” My response to that is, “let these a$$holes either do what’s right or let them die. We will see how badly we need them.”
I’m sick of the bailout talk being framed as if it is for my own good. F-ck you, you lying politicians.
I agree. They say, the gov’t has to save the financial system from chaos. Gov’t intervention will lead to chaos. Best thing is to let the free market sort this one out rather than prolongong and protecting the profits of big banks.
These serial bailouts look more and more to me like responses to govt-made crises with the primary purpose of rewarding big bank contributors to political campaigns.
I’m sick of the bailout talk being framed as if it is for my own good. F-ck you, you lying politicians.
I hear ya’ Makes my want to throw up! We need to clean house.
I don’t see how a bailout is helping someone who has diligently put money aside for a “real” downpayment, has been sure to keep 100% out of debt (not even a car payment), and is living well within their means - yet can absolutely NOT afford to buy even a modest home presently. How, exactly, does bailing out the irresponsible ones who pulled the trigger help me? I know there are more like me out there (aside from on this blog). How in the world can we get OUR side out. Politicians should care about us too, right? (That last line probably made many of you laugh.)
I’m just so ticked off about all the bailing out entitlement.
I’m starting to be more hopeful. Every bailout falls flat on its face. Even with the Fed’s latest liquidity maneuver, even the stock market falls this week. Paul Krugman’s editorial this morning says that increasing liquidity only helps if you’re solvent, and our banks just made too many bad loans to be solvent. So let’s all sit back and wait, HBBers, while Neil provides the popcorn.
I was thinking about this last night. I think that the system depends on the frugal savers in some part. Our savings form some of the basis for the lending. Our investments may be the largest pool of the shareholders if you count the retirement accounts. But, politicians and regulators pay no attention to our needs. I believe this is in large part because we have yet to make enough noise. We are not crying loud enough. We have no voice to be heard. We have no lobby. The politicians are reactive to threats to their re-election and so they constantly focus on doing things to appear helpful to various constituencies. Inflation of saved funds and investments as a result of such reactive responses is in essence taxation without representation of the savers.
I really do not know how to deal with that, but it makes me angry. there seems to be no clear path to fix this. I know I will vote for Ron Paul in the primary. I know I will continue to spend as little as I can and save as much as I can. I will carry no ccard debt as that is a complete scam that is rigged to rip us off. I have moved most of my investments to cash, but am still seeking the right investment strategy going forward. I wish I could understand the technical analysis like some here do and seem to prosper. But all of this is a coping strategy in the face of mounting evidence of manipulation and abuse. The lies and deceptive statistics, the gross profiteering at our expense, the explicit deference to the profiteers are all indicators to me that change is required somehow, someway. But we all continue to suffer these evils …. because I guess they are still sufferable.
“Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.”
http://www.earlyamerica.com/earlyamerica/freedom/doi/text.html
Hey east coaster, the proper response to this bailout, from the responsible saver point of view is to buy bullion (gold/silver/platinum) and stash it. Consider it an alternative currency to the dollar. Buy a little bit of it every month so that the price swings won’t harm you. 3 years ago my buddies were laughing at me for buying gold at $450 an ounce. Today I bought more gold ($793 spot price?). But I don’t care about price.
While this is a minor incedent compared to some mortgage/housing chicanery, it shows how deep the problem goes:
Most wanted ‘flipper’ still untouchable
http://tinyurl.com/yumgx8
Duthie saw the house on eBay and bought it for $15,339. Or so he thought. When he arrived a few weeks later to inspect the house, he discovered someone else still owned it.
“Jesse Isaacs was one of the first people brought to the attention of the anti-flipping task force,” said Kathleen Lynch, coordinator of the organization formed three years ago to combat flipping in Buffalo.”
Buffalo has an anti-flipping task force? You would think they would have other needs that would supersede such spending.
The numbers in this article are amazing. There are 8,000 - 10,000 vacant homes in Buffalo. The sales prices on some of these homes was $3,000, $8,000, etc. I haven’t been to Buffalo in 15 years. Something tells me I won’t be moving there any time soon. Go Bills!
Buffalo is my wife’s hometown, and things are a bit grim there financially…
The house she grew up in, could be yours for around $25k.
I urge you all to read the Buffalo News story…
This Jesse Isaacs character is a flipper legend, and wanted in numerous states, but here’s the kicker…
He’s like the person that never was~
“Jesse Isaacs was one of the first people brought to the attention of the anti-flipping task force,” said Kathleen Lynch, coordinator of the organization formed three years ago to combat flipping in Buffalo.”
“Anyone who monitors this type of flipping has heard the name Jesse Isaacs.”
“The odd thing is not one of them ever met or saw Isaacs and, aside from his lawyers, only one person ever talked to him.”
“Catch me if you can.”
California’s government is in a state of emergency. Does that mean we have 12 weeks of winter ahead or that the winter will last for 3 months? These things are so confusing.
http://tinyurl.com/2rkshf
“State spending also has increased by more than 40 percent since Schwarzenegger took office after the 2003 recall of then-Gov. Gray Davis.”
Wasn’t Arnie supposed to cut spending and straighten out this mess? I have grown to really fear the “white knight” candidates. That is from my experience of living through the Jessie Ventura stupidity. People get their hopes way way up and then are disillusioned so easily. I would much rather see consistent common sense and intelligence on the form of voters. But then again, I probably have a better chance of growing a third leg out of my a$$ than that happening.
I would guess this is not good for the California housing market. This is going to make all crashes before it look like child’s play.
Perhaps by referendum, we can get Gray Davis back.
Let me ask a Californian: are things better under Arnie than they were under Gray Davis? I sort of didn’t like the fact that Arnie used his “star power” to stir the pot with respect to Davis, but I guess that’s politics. I have felt that Davis must be laughing up his sleeve ever since.
The trap of the entertainment industry is face recognition…
We all could pick out the terminator or others of his ilk from a picture, because of familiarity.
It’s the same process we go through in learning to recognize the 200 or so people in each of our lives. (I know about that many people, by face)
Faux familiarity such as his, led us to elect somebody with no qualifications whatsoever, for the job of being our leader.
Truth is at least with Arnie we have some entertainment. Also, from the perspective of education he has actually cut funding of the UC System, forcing the System to face difficult budgeting decisions. Talk about waste. It is unbelievable what System administrators make.
Are we in trouble? You bet. But at least we have the potential of cutting services as opposed to solely raising taxes (a path Davis followed that eventually resulted in him loosing his office).
I can’t even imagine how much fat there must be in that California budget. Professor pay alone would have to be huge. I’m waiting for the day when the populace declares war against these municipal unions.
“I’m waiting for the day when the populace declares war against these municipal unions.”
I was watching the local (Tampa Bay area) PBS political punditry show yesterday evening. Much of the discussion was about the upcoming January vote on property taxes. The teacher, firefighter and police unions are campaigning against it. But the interesting point that was brought up was that 80% of union members were in gov’t jobs. I don’t know how true this is, but it really threw me for a loop. Apparently, private sector jobs now have very little unionization. Unions are now mostly in gov’t. Sheesh.
“Professor pay alone would have to be huge.”
And professorial services are a leading export product. Don’t forget to consider the benefit side in your cost-benefit analysis.
Arnie tried cutting spending and curtailing the power of the government union. They ate his lunch. He lost every referendum that was placed on the ballot. No, the problem with California is not the governator, it is the ignorant fools who buy $600k homes while only making $100k/year and force the state to alot $1 billion/year here and there for “clean water” (that’s not $1 billion each year, that’s $1 billion for the first…new referendum…and another $1 billion the next year (for a total of $2 billion). Over 50% of the California budget goes to education alone (teacher’s salaries, universities and colleges, etc.). This state has one of the lowest in-state tuition costs I have ever seen and I’ve been all over the place. No, Arnies hands are tied.
The only way they can fix this mess is to raise taxes (but not property because they have a law against raising property taxes….another foolish idea. The only way they can raise taxes is by the auto tax and income tax….of course since I rent and don’t have a write off on homeownership, I’ll end up paying more so that those with little ankle-biters can send them to school and their universities cheaply.
Testify!
They don’t call it the “Land of Fruits and Nuts” for nothing.
The only way they can fix this mess is to raise taxes
————————-
Before this happens, I’d like to see all the illegal immigrants deported. You’d be amazed how much of our budget is directed to services for illegals.
For those who disfavor unions, realize they are the only thing standing between you and a third-world standard of living.
Think smart.
Davis was a front-man for the public-employee unions. Schwarzenegger hasn’t fought them effectively, but he is more on Our side than on Their side.
“Davis was a front-man for the public-employee unions.”
So true, but he was also a bad decision-maker. A two-fer.
Let’s not forget the seminal moment of his leadership: the natural gas crisis when he was stared down and then finally made to blink by the bullies at Enron, signing a long-term deal at the top of the market. “If you’re going to cave in, cave in early.” He blew it, and he didn’t have other accomplishments to fall back on.
Funny thing is that Arnie’s popularity is still very high, even though the deficit is ballooning. I don’t see another recall happening.
I couldn’t believe people fell for the terminator’s act when he was elected. Like Ventura, it sounds good to claim you’re an outsider and you will do things different, but the reality is government doesn’t work like any other business and really can’t. The sole purpose of business is to make a profit. The supposed sole purpose of government is to collect funds in order to provide services for the whole population.
Try Jane Jacob’s “Systems of survival” for a cogent look at the difference between how governement and business should behave.
Actually, “sole purpose of government is to collect funds in order to provide” payments to its employees & cronies.
Seriously ignorant comment, thresho.
Wasn’t Arnie supposed to cut spending and straighten out this mess?
The sheople don’t quite understand how they are being used by both parties. Democrats need the Republicans to increase entitlement spending and new programs. Republicans need Democrats to increase the taxes that pay for those programs. It’s a viscious cycle but synergistically driving us all down the road to serfdom. Vote for Ron Paul. Then if he does not win the Republican nomination vote for whatever candidate is the Libertarian Party’s Presidential candidate.
This makes me happy. Dallas Lower Greenville McMansions unsold, now the builders are trying to rent them out (at ridiculous prices that will never be accepted).
http://dallas.craigslist.org/apa/509759425.html
and some of them are STILL building these places!
$3,700 a month??? Geeez…. these people are doomed.
Why do those Realtors put their pictures out there? It’s one thing to be hot. It’s another thing to think you are hot. If my dog had a face like that…..
$303! Hah ha. One more reduction and this sweet young thing will be blubbering on his fainting couch. 97K under “value” he says.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/509984157.html
$445 per month for HOA fees. Holy smokes. That better include a good, ummmm, never mind. That is a lot of money for HOA fees.
Hey NYCB, I thought NYC was the HQ of big monthly fees. My friend who bought a smallish 1BR for $450K on W 72nd 5 or 7 years ago pays a monthly fee of $800. I grant you it’s a coop, not a condo, so I guess some amt of the $800 is paying mortgage on the total structure. Not sure how these things work.
Yep. When we were even thinking of buying we were just terrified by the “maintenance fees”. That along with our continuing education kept us from thinking of buying. The maintenance fees are just hideous. The thought of being under the boot of a COOP board also frightened me. I will rent as long as I’m NYCityBoy.
CD player alarm clock in master bedroom
But it has a CD player alarm clock in the master bedroom! That should be worth at last $250K alone.
I’ve taken it as my divinely-annointed mission to troll Craigslist looking for every “$__K under appraisal!” claim I can find, then e-mailing them to call BS on inflated, bogus appraisals. I then offer them 50% of their asking price. They generally e-mail back to call me a rat, a snake, and then make up lower life forms of their own since the existing ones don’t do me justice.
We have to take our amusement where we find it, I suppose.
So, are you prepared to back up those offers with action, or is it just more BS from a different BSer?
It’s the all-hat-and-no-chattel fellow! The price keeps going down, but the value doesn’t! Every reduction in price is more instant equity! Too rich!
What did they used to make counter tops out of before there was Granite?
faux granite?
How did they measure hail before there was golf?
Faux mica
I think its supposed to be their way of “Branding”. Not that I think that it works.
She looks like Alice The Goon on the old cartoon Popeye.
She looks like Alice The Goon on the old cartoon Popeye.
I’m using ZipRealty to keep track of a few properties here in Vegas.
I had to use AdBlock to get rid of my “assigned” realtors picture. Eeeh.
This is one of the really huge problems with this real estate boom. There has been way too much upper middle class to high end building. During the 80’s boom, the houses were mostly lower middle class / affordable. So, an investor could at least buy a place and rent it out. However, it is very tough to rent out a four bedroom / 3 bath place.
And I wonder how much of that GDP in different states is actually housing related.
http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/2007/06/10/131-us-states-renamed-for-countries-with-similar-gdps/
I guess that means we had better start making plans to bomb Alabama.
LOL
Pennsylvania is similar to Netherlands - do they have the same idiot home prices as well?
Our Minister of Finance (yuppie from the Labor Party) was on TV yesterday, explaning how great the recent coordinated central bank action was: problem is now definitely cured, nothing to worry about. And if not, nothing can happen to the Netherlands because the Dutch economy is still very strong and doing better than most other EU countries. He doesn’t mention how much of that economy is housing-related, and how big the downside is in Netherlands compared to many other EU countries. A minor blip in homeprice growth in 2000 (not even a real decline!) already caused a short recession, just imagine what happens when the real correction starts (trendline for Dutch home prices is about 85% down from current level). I think depression would be a mild word if they ever allow this to happen (of course they won’t, they would rather bankrupt the treasury than leave the housing market on its own).
One other funny one on that map. I like how California is represented with France. There is something that feels very right about that.
I was a little weirded out by the comparison of Florida with South Korea. First I was thinking “it figures”, then I read the breakdown and saw that Florida was number three behind Calif and Texas. You could’ve knocked me over with a feather. Nor could I believe that Florida had the third largest GDP. Then I realized much of it was probably housing.
“Then I realized much of it was probably housing.”
Is the cocaine trade factored in?
NYB:
Just saw your post yesterday. A drink downtown sounds great. I’m in Ben’s neck of the woods for Christmas (Scottsdale/Flagstaff). Maybe some other HBB’ers would like to join us for drinks in mid Jan.
When you’re back in town get me at nycityboyhbb at nyc rr com. We like Mercantile Grill, Killarney Rose, Ulysses, etc. I can stumble home from those places. We may not be allowed into one of the bars on Stone Street. That is hit or miss. We will stay away from that one.
Will do, Ulysses works for me, that’s for sure.
That map illustrates better than anything words could conjure up, about the rest of the 1st world (and mysterious 2nd world) catching up with us…
We ARE the 2nd world — as in, “old world” and “new world.” At least, that’s what I’ve always thought was behind the phrase “third world.” I suppose Can is in 2nd world too.
1st World: The U.S. and other capitalist nations of the West
2nd World: The Soviet Union and other communist nations
3rd World: Formerly colonized nations
That is what the terms originally meant. It was a concept developed by the French. To be called a 3rd World country was actually a compliment. People still use the terms but rarely in relation to their original meaning.
Ohio=Australia? I don’t think so, even using 2003 output and exchange rates. Australia has almost twice the population (20mm vs. 11mm), and per capita GDP is similar. Grains of salt, anyone?
From todays AP:
“Rick Morielli, a former real estate broker from Toronto, received his green card in November, posted a Canadian realty Web site, took out some newspaper ads in Canada, and already he has about a dozen clients looking for homes.
“There’s a real ‘Wow’ factor here for Canadians,” said Morielli, who now lives in Phoenix.
“When I take them to a brand new subdivision, and for $210,000 can get them four bedrooms, 2,000 square feet, all appliances, brand new, that’s something they haven’t been able to buy in Canada for 10 or 15 years. In my opinion, everyone should be buying now.”
And then the hoardes of Loonies descended upon the tired bird, and so Phoenix was given new life, eh?
i read that story.. the last paragraph mentions how his offer was turned down and he hopped a plane north.
Heilige SOL moment…
Governor set to declare fiscal emergency
Budget shortfall targeted; 10 percent cuts expected
By Ed Mendel
STAFF WRITER
December 15, 2007
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071215/news_1n15budget.html
The lights are blinking red.
Blinking red? They have been a solid red for a long time here in the Golden State
Day 2…
Mi$$ion Deep-Freeze
I’m still laughing about Burma Shave.
Is there any economic theory to support the notion that freezing lending rates will unfreeze credit markets? I would expect this kind of measure to have exactly the opposite effect — that is, of turning former sources of loanable funds into a liquidity tundra. But I am not a REIC economist, so perhaps I am missing something important?
Stucco, ask yourself this question. “Would Tony Soprano lend out money if he knew he couldn’t be guaranteed to either a) get his 2 points per week or b) break the legs of the guy that isn’t paying?” I think that should answer the questions about whether or not this will help to turn off the lending spigot.
Excellent economic analysis, NYCityBoy!
Freezing lending rates might help the credit markets if the problem was simply liquidity. However, since the problem is solvency, it won’t do a damn thing other than call into question 200 years of contract law. And don’t get me started on the implied effect on the capital markets.
Why is it capitalism can only be permitted when everything is going well?
Sounds like the Fed needs to go back to the drawing board and cook up some new economic models for their myriad staff economists to ponder…
“Who ate all the gabagoul?”
Wow!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119768188895030835.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
Interesting that it was written by a member of Congress. Last night, on one of the Friday evening political shows, there was mention made of how Congress is really pissed at the CIA for destroying emails when they were told not to. Congress is supposed to speak for the people. I think some members of Congress are slowly waking up to the fact that their power derives from the people and if they don’t assert themselves on behalf of the people, they will become obsolete.
I think many members of Congress got into the “spirit” of the times and acted like lords and ladies at the court. It has been the fashion for much of Washington and Wall Street to be “deciders” and just do what they want to do and if that means not doing their jobs or exceed authority, so be it. Congress has tried to be part of that game and it isn’t working out. Instead, it is being brushed aside by the administration, by the CIA, by the FED, etc. Many members of Congress may have felt that they, too, could be “deciders” and are discovering it doesn’t work that way for them. So now, some are speaking out and speaking sooth.
Let’s check on what the markets are saying about this…
AS I SUSPECTED — DEFLATION!!!
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In case you were looking for a heavily discounted book to share with loved ones this holiday season, here is the link…
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Here’s the real free market:
http://cgi.ebay.com/The-Age-of-Turbulence-by-Alan-Greenspan-2007_W0QQitemZ110206008102QQihZ001QQcategoryZ378QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
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J’accuse!
“The mess current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke found when moving into his new office was created by its former occupant.”
Sen. Jim Bunning (R., Ky.)
Washington
Some posters here have been wondering about what sort of bubble the recent flood of liquidity from the Fed would inadvertently blow, and emerging evidence suggests a possible answer: consumer prices(Oops…)
BTW, a one-month increase of 0.8 percent represents 10 percent consumer price inflation* at an annualized rate. Now I am beginning to get a better grasp of macroeconomic budget constraints.
Welcome to the 1970s, folks! Time to buy a leisure suit and get a bad haircut.
* (1.008^12-1)*100 = 10 percent
Consumer inflation grows as economy slows
Pump prices push Labor index to 2-year high; energy and food costs, job losses widely felt
By Martin Crutsinger
ASSOCIATED PRESS
December 15, 2007
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071215/news_1b15economy.html
Remember AMF Harleys?
Rice up 30 pct, WSJ. Riot in Senegal.
Hard spring wheat and hard red winter wheat are at all time highs.
Anyone have any hot investing ideas for 2008? I am thinking about getting together a year’s supply of food…
Always a good idea. providentliving.org tells you how to do it.
Of Rogers’ current picks, cotton sounds best to me. Supply-side: labor, water, and land-use intensive, needs long warm/hot season. Much harder to harvest and process than grains. Demand side: Emerging blue- and white-collar economies, no good substitutes.
PB thats is a great idea. Don’t forget to include paper goods and drug store items. What foods will you get? Candy lasts forever!
Ben:
Belated congrats on your 3rd anniversary…
“No eternal reward will forgive us now for wasting the dawn”
Jim Morrison
This song is about radio stations, south of the border in the 50’s and 60’s that weren’t restricted in their range, as were our stations.
They were heard all over the country…
A spiders web of sound, similar to the internet.
And they played some great music…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrRXPEklXr0
Hmm … I smell two rats:
1. Prius sales are not increasing as much as they were before (despite the increase in car sales this year). Prior to this summer, Toyota did little to nothing to advertize this car.
2. Some people (those targeted by these ads) still think we’re in a tech-driven boom. Must explain all those people buying Garmin, Apple, and RIMM.
Prius Future
3. This site makes me puke. Ugh, just when I was starting to get used to the idea of our brave new Toyota future. (Hm, once a Honda freak, always a Honda freak, then!)
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/071206siv_positive_gvts.html
State and local governments testing “SIV Positive.”
So will municipal garbage trucks, state police cars and school buses gather infront of Goldman Sachs and other such offices in Lower Manhattan? I hope so (sorry New York commuters).
–
Cut Taxes to Save Housing!
That was the debate pn Faux News business block.
Jas
Actually, that sort of deflationary scenario is one trick that might actually have merit.
White Marsh Mall and the Town Center outdoor shopping area was jammed with cars today. Browsers? Shoppers? My big buy of the day was gold bullion in some other part of the city of Baltimore. Sorry to disppoint the ones out there hoping for a lack of consumerism.
Keep tabs on this one as it could be the new site for the Joshua Tree Insertion facility …
http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/rfs/509961058.html
Price should drop to about 1 or 2k per acre eventually.
That picture of the girl wearing cacti has to be the RE Agent sister. WHo else would wear cacti to make a sale? OUCH!
Meet the desert Flintstones.
Good place for a meth lab. That will be big business for the Mojave desert towns in the next few years. More bleeding gum teeth-dropping skinny tanned people will flood the areas.