Let’s Be Serious, Things Have Burst
The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “The median sales price of single family homes in Pinellas County dropped 14 percent year over year. Prices fell to $185,000 in November from the $215,000 recorded a year earlier. Pasco County came out even worse, showing an 18 percent median home price decline, to $170,000 last month from $208,000 in November 2006.”
“It was the worst year-to-year home price drop in at least a decade, though statistics don’t go back far enough to prove whether it rivals declines in earlier housing slumps.”
“‘Every neighborhood’s stressed. There are no exceptions,’ said St. Petersburg Realtor Bunni Longwell.”
“Pinellas sales were off 22.6 percent over the year. Pasco and Hillsborough home sales plunged by about a third in the same period.”
“At the heart of the price drop is the massive inventory of homes on the market. More than 40,000 houses and condos clog the listings in Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough. Investors get most of the blame. They over-stimulated new home construction through 2006 and dumped the surplus onto the market.”
“Pasco’s condo scene illustrates the dilemma: Two years ago 43 of 153 condos on the market sold in November. This November’s sales were nearly the same - 41 - but listings had ballooned to 1,301.”
The Herald Tribune from Florida. “The downturn in the economy, spiking property taxes,, the rising cost of living and aggravations associated with population growth have Floridians feeling worse about their state than they did a year ago, a Mason-Dixon survey shows.”
“Forty-three percent of Floridians now feel their quality of life is declining, up from 36 percent last year, the survey said.”
“Thirty-three percent said they would not encourage a friend or relative to move here, while 20 percent of the 1,200 people surveyed said they are seriously thinking of leaving.”
“With the real estate and construction industries in the doldrums, retail sales dropping, student enrollment down 8,000 statewide this year and agriculture output threatened by a serious drought, the state’s problems have only been increasing in recent months.”
“What pushed Katharine Pratt over the edge was when her property taxes doubled. ‘I felt I was never getting ahead,’ she said. ‘It drove me out of my hometown.’”
“Carol Hunewell, a Fort Myers resident, is biding her time until she can leave for Massachusetts or California. ‘You own your home, but now you’re renting it with all the additional fees,’ she says.”
“Winnie Nelon, a Massachusetts snowbird and founder of Homeowners Against Runaway Taxes, said about 10 tourists came up to her at the Winter Fest on Anna Maria Island this month and said they were thinking of buying here until they looked at the costs of property taxes and insurance.”
“‘Now they are looking elsewhere,’ Nelon said.”
“‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash. ‘Now that property values are coming down, property taxes will come down, too.’”
The Daily Report from Georgia. “The two most important factors necessary to ensure a successful resurgence for downtown Atlanta—drawing more residents and retail—have evoked a sort of chicken-and-egg dilemma among the central city’s boosters and business owners.”
“‘If people expect a certain amount of amenities like restaurants, drug stores and nail salons that you would expect for a 24-hour city then they won’t want to move [downtown]—and the retailers won’t want to invest in a market until the numbers are there, until the people are there,’ said Whitney Rusert, president of the Atlanta Downtown Neighborhood Association.”
“Twenty-six of the projects that are under construction, planned or part of a multiphase development will have residences, contributing to the more than 11,000 new households with an average of one or two people the analysis states are expected to have moved downtown between 2000 and 2012.”
“With more, higher-priced living quarters available, the average income of new downtown households is expected to increase from $61,000, the average in 2000, to $71,000 by 2012, the RCLCO report stated. The expected household income increase is key to attracting the ‘proper retail for the market audience,’ said Ellen Mendelsohn, a project manager with CAP’s economic development department.”
“The CVS is the only drug store downtown. There currently isn’t a major grocery store downtown either. The last grocery store downtown, a Kroger located across from City Hall, closed in 2005 after a decade-long run. The 13,000-square-foot supermarket was set up as a ground retailer for the City Plaza apartment complex at Central and Trinity avenues. The storefront is now a haven for homeless people.”
“‘Amenity wise, it would be a challenge to live downtown,’ said restaurateur Bob Amick, who believes this will change.”
“Emory Morsberger, whose company, The Morsberger Group, is interested in revitalizing the newly branded Railroad District in south downtown, said he invested in the central city because ‘much better values exist in the downtown submarket.’”
“‘In real estate, it’s hard to make money when you are buying at the top price right off the bat. … I was amazed at some of the prices we were able to get buildings for in Atlanta—there’s a desire to be downtown—not everyone can afford a $500,000 condo in Buckhead,’ said Morsberger.”
The Times News from North Carolina. “It’s not just high dollar homes that are sitting on the market longer due to the rapidly deflating housing bubble. Projects such as Brickton Village, an affordable condominium development under construction in Fletcher, have also felt the slowdown.”
“The development has sold 75 of its first 168 units, which are priced from $94,000 to $130,000, since starting sales nine months ago, developer Rod Hubbard says. He compared that to his other development, the Grove at Appledorn in Asheville’s Shiloh community. There he built 168 units selling for $69,000 to $130,000 three years ago.”
“‘When I did this in Asheville, I was sold out before I went vertical (with construction). That is how serious the difference in the real estate market has become,’ Hubbard said. ‘And I’m selling a product that is superior to what I was building in Asheville.’”
“Because of the slowdown, Hubbard wants the Fletcher Town Council to allow him to revise his plans for a second phase of Brickton Village. Instead of an additional 200 for sale units as originally planned, he wants the town to permit him to build more than 340 units, and the flexibility to rent rather than sell them.”
“‘We agreed on a project to be bought and owned by the individual. Now the concern is, is it going to be for rent?’ Mayor Pro Tem Eddie Henderson said. ‘I prefer this development to be as it was in June.’”
“Hubbard responded: ‘Well, I do too. I’ve just invested $18 million in a product here and I’m just 50 percent sold out,’ he said.”
“Western North Carolina, with its mountain views and desirability, is sheltered from the full brunt of the poor housing market nationwide but not immune, he said. ‘Let’s be serious, things have burst. It is not raining but it is sprinkling,’ he said.”
The Rocky Mount Telegram from North Carolina. “North Carolina had for months, to some extent, resisted a national trend that has led to a record-setting downturn in the housing market. According to a recent report, though, the state – the Twin Counties included – may be giving into the pressure.”
“Foreclosure activity in North Carolina grew 10 times faster than the national average in October, according to RealtyTrac. The rate was up nearly 150 percent compared with October of 2006.”
“Wachocia has been forced to foreclose upon more North Carolina properties than in years past, most notably near Winston-Salem and Charlotte, according to a bank representative.”
“‘After the flood, a lot of people went out and purchased these nice, big houses,’ said Deputy Tax Collector Tarasa Lewis, who specializes in delinquent tax collection. ‘They didn’t take into consideration that their tax rates would be higher and not all of them have been able to afford it. That accounts for a lot of the properties the county forecloses on.”
“‘It’s not what we want to do, but it’s what we need to do,’ Lewis said.”
‘With the real estate and construction industries in the doldrums, retail sales dropping, student enrollment down 8,000 statewide this year and agriculture output threatened by a serious drought, the state’s problems have only been increasing in recent months.’
Suddenly becoming the next California doesn’t look so good. Too late…
“Suddenly becoming the next California doesn’t look so good. Too late…”
LOL, this has been a wild hair of mine for some time. I have to hold both hands firmly behind my back to keep from delivering a slap to people who fatuously proclaim “We’re gonna be like California!” And they wear an idiot gleeful grin on their face when they say this.
Oh, yeah, we’re getting all the bad stuff that Cali has and none of the good. We don’t have the great weather. We don’t have the mountains. We don’t have the great jobs. We don’t have the industry. And we never will. But, oh yeah, we’re getting the taxes, the illegals, the congestion, the energy prices, the high cost of living, etc. Whoopeeeeee! Congrats, you fatuous Florida boosters! You’ve done it! We’ve got all of the drawbacks of Cali and none of the benefits.
Hey Palmy… email me at chbjeep@msn.com
“Oh, yeah, we’re getting all the bad stuff that Cali has and none of the good.”
palmetto-
I had the pleasure of my first visit to FLA this year (Flight Safety School @ PBI) and I gotta say the good stuff you speak of is largely an illusion out here in CA. I saw you guys had a blue sky- yeah our weather is temprate but everybody that lives here suffers from resperatory problems due to the horrible air quality- when the mountains aren’t on fire you can’t get to them because there are so many people living here (ever seen the line up the mountain to Big Bear?). We also don’t have the jobs to justify the lifestyle here (all our aerospace jobs are in your state now). Oh, and our polluted beach water here is about 60-65 degrees most of the time and so murky you can’t see anything through it. I was blown away by the water temp and clarity in FLA- unbelivable how warm it was. You guys were the bomb for seafood as well- ruined me for shellfish in Cali forever! Enjoy it while you can- Cali was like that 20 years ago- long gone now. I totally understand your frustrations- it sucks to see a great thing ruined.
yeah our weather is temprate but everybody that lives here suffers from resperatory problems due to the horrible air quality-’
When I used to visit my sister in San Diego I would spend a lot of time with my nose wrinkled. Not just the air, but free-floating vague horror at the over-all ickiness. That air, wheeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzze.
Then she came up to spend some time with me before going to grad school–she’d do this thing where she’d command me to watch her, so I’d say ‘What?! Whatwhatwhattcha doing?’ The reply was, ‘Don’t you see my torso expand and contract? Observe my nostrils! I’m breathing! It’s so great! Who knew?’
She would walk around and just breathe.
(Then, stupidly, she went to Utah for the schooling. The air over Utah Valley, especially right now with the seasonal inversion layers they get? It looks like a giant purple pancake of filth. So I guess she has had to stop breathing again.)
But of course, it’s very very horrible in WA and no one except fake types has tans, so probably Californians would hate it here and should not come. Be sure to spread that word, everyone.
First, I love southern California. Smog and all. Its MUCH better than the 1980’s. You no longer have healthy people having to sit down to recover from a Stage 1 Smog alert. We haven’t had one in a long time.
Not to repond to socal jettech:
(all our aerospace jobs are in your state now)
Its going to all states. The big concentrations are now in Denver and Houston. Now Fort Worth still has a bunch too and a bit in Austin, so Texas now has a ‘triangle concentration’ much like LA-OC-San Diego-Palmdale used to have. Oh… so cal still dominates in aerospace. Expect some big announcements next year. About March… You cannot price out an industry and expect it to stick around.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Palmetto:
But we do have political heads that are just like the ones in California. The example: “‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash.
McClash only thinks this is a perceived problem, just like the California political heads talk. What we can do is get rid of these political idiots who are controlled by the special interest groups and some big business. We do not want anyone in a political office who thinks the housing bubble was a “perceived problem”!
Housing, check; retail, check; schools, check; crime, check; drought - not really. As bad as the housing situation is, there is no widespread problem with serious drought in Florida currently. The wet season was reasonably wet in most areas. The dry areas are Lake Okeechobee area (sugar cane, cattle, oranges) and a few spots in the Panhandle. Crops aren’t being lost, cattle aren’t being sold. One bad freeze causes more ag damage than a spell of dry weather.
But weather has become some kind of new “proof” of doom-and-gloom.
“But weather has become some kind of new “proof” of doom-and-gloom.”
I agree. That’s how the de-sal plant on Tampa Bay came about. Freakouts about drought, when for the same amount of money, SwiftMud could have taken Crystal Springs by eminent domain and the Hillsborough River could run free.
The no-water scare is the latest scam to keep the herd mentality alive. I’ve been in all parts of the H20 business for 20 years and I call BS on it.
Not so on the drought–we started fire season here in SW Florida months early. I believe we’re about 50 inches short of our average rainfall (that’s what I saw on the local news). One of my good friends works for a local fire chief and has been telling me that they are VERY worried about the next five months. There have already been brush fires popping up here and there.
Last year with all the fires in Lehigh, I was told (by the FD folks) that people were driving their boats, trucks and atvs out and parking them in the path of the flames, hoping they would get to put in an insurance claim and get out from under those payments.
i wonder how would they ever prove fraud? Unless you left the boat on the side of a mountain? Trucks, SUV’s ATV’s… well i was visiting friends…and WHOOPS a fire just happen to be there.
i wonder how would they ever prove fraud?
It’s simple, you just start with the financial aspect and work the case from that point.
No offense, but 50″ short? SW Fla averages, at best, 50 inches a year. Why is everyone who never in their whole life took any interest in environmental sciences, meteorology, or climate history suddenly an expert on the weather? Quick: which way is the rotation on a low pressure system in the southern hemisphere?
And as far as the fire chief - they’re paid to worry and anticipate problems. And they often are VERY worried that they may have to get off their ass and actually do something to earn their $3000/week if it doesn’t rain more.
None taken. It was a graphic on one of the local news stations. I thought the number sounded crazy, but, I could have just missed the context. As it happens, I just looked it up, and our average is 50–that’s what I get for not checking my facts twice, as I normally do. Shame on me, especially as I did take a few meteorology courses at FSU during my undergrad years.
HOWEVER, the drought is an issue. Our drought/fire index is already at 500-549 and the official fire season just started. You guys up in Jax are in much better condition than a majority of the state, water-wise.
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/index.html
This week’s rainfall was the first of ’semi-substance’ we’ve had in quite a while.
To the poster who asked about if they’re able to prove the insurance fraud: I asked the very same question and was told that, while they (the officials) know it’s fraud, it’s quite difficult to prove.
Suddenly becoming the next California doesn’t look so good. Too late…
About a year and a half ago, a Hillsborough County Florida commsioner told me that Florida will be the next California because of the RE boom. I laughed and told him to just wait and see what happens and sent him some stats on where Florida is headed in terms of a real estate bust.
Most of the Councilmen and Commissioners here are complete idiots. What were you expecting?
Most of the Councilmen and Commissioners here are complete idiots. What were you expecting?
The truth, he is a friend of mine! He also knows I am not pleased with his comments.
“With more, higher-priced living quarters available, the average income of new downtown households is expected to increase from $61,000, the average in 2000, to $71,000 by 2012, the RCLCO report stated.
Somebody help me out here. Did my brain just fly out the window? This statement refers to a 20% increase in local incomes, over a 12-year period, as being a positive. How the heck is that supposed to be good? That means that local incomes will run far below real inflation. This is cause for great concern, not for celebrating. I just feel dumber when I read this stuff.
And if you had listened to the RE cheerleaders, prices for homes would be up 10-20X in the same time period. They were up 4X in 5 years, and that was a GREAT thing in many FL areas.
These people are too stupid to have their thoughts immortalized on the Internet. However, they make great cannon fodder for this blog, so perhaps they do serve some purpose in life.
Yes, that 20% income increase translates into 1.53% annualized growth for the 12 years. So the report is not coming clean on the idea “So What?”.
Who is the “so what?” question posed to?
This report is meant to show that downtown housing will be great due to this rise in incomes. An annual 1.5% rise in incomes doesn’t seem to be much to hang your hat on. This comment about incomes rising appears to be another stupid quote from another stupid shill. Of course there is no questioning of the stupidity.
I drove through Atlanta twice–over Thanksgiving and last weekend. The ‘Metro Broker’ sign that displays number of homes for sale (last I’d seen it was over 100,000) said ‘Buy more homes’ at Thanksgiving and ‘Welcome Home’ last weekend. In our small, lakeside town the average days on market is 224. We are an hour and a half east of Atlanta.
For a state like Fl that relies on growth I cannot understand why they throw non-homesteaders under the bus. Stupidly, they reassess in’05 without adjusting the millage rates. Now they pander to long time residents with a portablity bill. The problems in FL are far greater than sub-prime.
As with most of the Country, since September, pretty much nothing is selling in the A-T-L unless there is a 10% reduction from previous sold comps. Shhhh, dont tell anyone.
Well, I can explain (but certainly NOT justify) the mentality that leads to the kind of actions that FL has taken. I have lived in FL for about 5 years now, and, almost everyone who lives here (full time) hates people from the north/snowbirds. There are actually stickers that I see on cars that say “Snowbirds go home” from time to time, that’s how ingraned the hatred is of this group.
SOH was designed to protect FL homeowners from tax price run-ups by the hated birds/northerners, which, without a doubt, it did. However, it also led to the biggest spending boom in FL history, which is certainly not at all what was intentioned by the law. And now, more and more FL residents are waking up to the facts of a law like this:
1) I can’t move!! (Hence, the idea of portability, which many, myself included, think is bound for the courts for the next 5 years, even if it should pass)
2) My kids can’t afford to buy anything here (No solution here, basically F*** my kids and the younger generation to the benefit of the older FL residents.. I am in this group, and I am pissed, so please forgive any venom).
Snowbirds will stop coming here, and the younger generation will continue to move out until the tax inequities are resolved. Portability is the WORST possible solution to this problem (let’s take a bad system, and square it!).
What FL needs are floating home prices, floating mill rates, and SPENDING CAPS on the local govt bodies. But, we will have to see if that can ever get on a ballot anywhere. SOH is the “third rail” in FL politics, touch it and die. What all these people don’t realize is that SOH will forever limit the appreciation of their homes… Some don’t care. Many just don’t understand.
‘What all these people don’t realize is that SOH will forever limit the appreciation of their homes… Some don’t care. Many just don’t understand.’
Yes, Michael, once again you are ranting on this issue.
SOH was designed to save me from people like you that want home prices to “appreciate”, along with the taxes and insurance.
I am quite content to live in a $50,000 home and would like it to stay that way. A house is a place to live and I built mine to FIX MY MONTHLY OVERHEAD. Otherwise, I would rent.
I was born in Tampa. I’ve lived here my whole life.
Yankees bring yankee dollars, a big-shot attitude and new ideas about how to make Florida more like New York or California. I don’t need it and don’t want it.
I don’t want to pay for a $500,000 house.
However, any dumb-ass Yankee that thinks they should, should also be willing to pay taxes and insurance on it. If you homestead the place, you get SOH protection, based on the price you PAID.
Get it? If you refuse to pay $500,000, then you don’t get taxed on it.
All the speculative buyers flooding here from other places with their high dollar “equity” cash-outs have made it miserable for all the locals who simply are trying to live their lives. I think they should pay the bill for the inflation they have caused. It’s only fair.
I am justing wanting to relocate to a house that should cost roughly $120,000, but has been price in the $240-280k range for the past 5 years.
If people thought the houses were worth 280k, then they should pay for 280k’s worth of taxes.
Mine is currently assessed at about 97,000. It’s probably marketable at 150k (current market). Without SOH, it would be taxed at 228-240k. What’s fair about that?
Yankees bring yankee dollars, a big-shot attitude and new ideas about how to make Florida more like New York or California.
Don’t forget who won the civil war! I came from up north, but have lived in Tampa for 22 years. I support growth and new ideas, but not the the speculative housing market that has ruined the housing market in Tampa.
There is nothing fair about a younger guy like me paying much higher taxes than people like you who bought 20 years ago and think that their costs should be fixed in 1987 dollars forever. Fink is right - you don’t get it.
That is the mistake that everyone makes with discussing this issue. There is NO WAY to buy a home without paying market value. It’s not like the younger generation has the choice to go back to 1995 and buy a house then, to get the great SOH protection that the long time residents enjoy.
There is nothing fair about SOH. The sooner everyone in FL realizes what it really is; the greatest tax hiking mechanism every passed in FL history, the sooner we can all look to install spending caps, which is what will actually fix the problem (spending).
I understand that others disagree, and, from a personal level, I can understand it. I have lots of family members who are huge SOH supporters (as they are saving 10’s of K a year because of it), and I can understand from a “ME” level why people support it. That does not make it HORRIBLE tax policy. It is crushing the younger generation; the sooner the “Well, ya shadwa bought what ya cauld afrd” crowd starts to realize that high home prices are NOT liked to high taxes (that’s why there is a mill rate) the sooner we can all move foward.
“There is nothing fair about a younger guy like me paying much higher taxes than people like you who bought 20 years ago and think that their costs should be fixed in 1987 dollars forever. Fink is right - you don’t get it.”
Actually I do get it. I built my current house in 1998. I did all the work myself. I cost me about $70k in materials at that time. I estimated it to be worth about 85k.
It is PRICE that is the problem. It is speculation and cheap money that caused this hyper-inflation, not fundamentals.
KEEPING tax assessments based on price paid helps keep prices low. I want prices LOW.
You should also. If prices had maintained a historical inflation rate, the tax increases would have roughly kept up with home price increases……..3% per year. That is the SOH CAP. My taxes increase at 3% per year.
Perhaps the cap should go to 4%.
But just because others came here and agreed to pay 2x -3x what i built my house for, is not a reason to tax me out of my house.
I am very sympathetic to young people with crappy job prospects due to outsourcing and third-world competition at the same time the FED government let houses become a casino game.
The way to return sanity is to force prices DOWN. This is done by RAISING interest rates.
This may happen on it’s own for mortgages.
This will force prices down and the TAXES and insurance will drop back in line to the 3-4% inflation rate we expect.
Also, I would still like to relocate. It’s not the taxes that are keeping me from moving.
It’s the PRICE. Period.
I totally agree. I’m relocating also, because unfortunely I
want to capitalize on economy.
plwms.
I agree with you. I’m a native myself.
No diogenes, SOH was instituted to save taxes for the rich in Palm beach, Miami Beach, Hobe sound, marco island and any other wealthy enclave. You just happen to be going along for the ride. I understand why you don’t mind, just remember who it really benefits.
Quite, property taxes in FL are relatively modest, particularly for a state with no income tax.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/PropertyTaxesWhereDoesYourStateRank.aspx
The need to burden young families and subsidise the rich is absurd. “Foreigners” will simply not buy in FL as the distortions grow over time, the real burden will fall on Florida’s young. This “FU I’ve got mine” attitude is sad.
Will
Mike; Having previously lived in WPB, and Fl, I can sympathize with you thoughts…..
I’ve come to the conclusion that:
THE “X” GENERATION, JUST GOT “X”ed OUT
With the announcement by Arnie that California will now have a $14 billion + budget deficit because of the sub-prime mess as opposed to his show-biz hyped $4 billion surplus and the current conditions in Florida which are looking more like a bad horror movie everyday, it doesn’t take a genius to see where the country will be going in 2008. We have a friend from Texas visiting and she retired in September. She took a vacation in Florida and said we wouldn’t believe how bad the property market is. What’s worse (or better for her) was one of her co-workers urged her to buy property in Florida in 2004, “Because when you retire in a couple of years you can live off the rental income.”
There’s a real battle shaping up between the localities and state in Florida. The new mantra in Jacksonville is, “We’re going to do X to [fight crime/improve the schools/etc.] so long as Tallahassee doesn’t play games with us” (i.e., not providing funding). I’m sure Arnie and Californians are going to get to hear a ton of this soon.
‘Arnie that California will now have a $14 billion + budget deficit because of the sub-prime mess’
- That article jumped off the page at me this morning.
I love Arnie because he gives the press and public (whose CA attention span is three seconds) exactly what they need. It is all about the ‘Bling’ in SoCal - real issues only need to be mentioned in the media for several days and BAM - JoeJuan Sixer is satisfied and ready for a new Bling (smoke and mirrors).
If you want to make money as a landlord you can’t invest in FL real estate. I’ve owned a SFH in FL for 22 years, thank god the mortgage was just paid off because my taxes and ins. have tripled. The rents can’t handle taxes,ins and a mortgage unless you put 60% down. Why investors bought up FL is beyond me.
OTOH, with the new 50K homestead exemption (up from 25K), the day will come again - sooner rather than later - where you’ll be able to retire cheaply to one of those 1000 sq ft concrete block 3/1s walking distance from the Atlantic and pay almost no tax or insurance (pay cash and don’t insure).
“investors” did not buy up Florida. Speculators with No money down loans bought up Florida, and the price didn’t matter. None of them ever intended to keep the properties. They were going to “flip” them to you and me for a tidy profit.
Just one problem……….we’re not buying.
Good luck making the payments!
“[I]n Atlanta—there’s a desire to be downtown—not everyone can afford a $500,000 condo in Buckhead,’ said Morsberger.”
Get the frack out of here! No one wants to live downtown Atlanta.
“No one wants to live downtown Atlanta.”
I sure don’t. I’ve been there. It’s like Riviera Beach in FLA.
dead honkey
I point out that Buckhead is not downtown, its a rich off-shoot 8 miles away. The ATL highrise district is divided into three major groups, downtown (dead), midtown (active liberal community), and Buckhead (20 something fratboy types living off daddy’s money, single republicans, and rap star wannabes; yes, in this rare urban environment republicans and rap star wannabes have learned to live together, not out of respect for one another, but because of their mutual fear of the midtown liberal culture and love to show off their money, or should I say over-leveraged debt obligations).
Oh come on. I’m from Buckhead, and it is, or used to be, beautiful. Your references to midtown liberal culture suggest what? That you are a liberal Democrat who resents the wealthy, whom you assume to be Republicans? Most of the people I knew in Buckhead were Democrats (it’s a southern thing).
Buckhead is one of the jewels of Atlanta, though it has been tarnished by overpopulation, and properties there are WAY less expensive than equivalent properties here in hideous south Tampa. Also, Atlanta is a city where manners and culture matter–something inconceivable in Tampa, where flip-flops are actually worn in public.
Did I once say Buckhead was not attactive? Did I once say I was resentful? Did I once say I lived in midtown?
In fact, I have lived in both areas, and know the demographics well. The facts are as I stated.
Between Buckhead, Midtown and Downtown:
1. Buckhead prices per sq foot are the most expensive, midtown second, downtown third.
2. Midtown residents are on average more liberal then residents of downtown or buckhead.
3. Buckhead residents are on average the most conservative of the three and has the highest republican concentration.
4. Buckhead residents are the most flashy with their wealth (type of car they drive, etc.).
Also note that my post referred to the hi-rise condo section, not the residential section. If you have a problem with my demographics or data, try to point out the problem with the actual facts as I presented them supported by objective data. Not ramblings about me being resentful, based on your own prejudices. I, in fact, have a salary in the top 3% in ATL and am a renter driving a 10 yr old Honda Accord. I dont resent those in debt. I pity them, and feel they have done lots of harm to our country. I could buy a BMW and flashy condo with cash, but choose not too.
The obvious negative bias in your comment only bolstered the position you appeared to be against (i.e., you countered statements that you thought were biased with your own bias, you countered the argument that many ppl in Buckhead have over-leveraged debt with an argument that I must be resentful of their wealth).
You speak of manners and culture, but your post suggested none of the same.
Incred - Tim is right about his demographics. I live in Vinings and know those areas well. You appear to be confusing the demographics of an area v. your own individual situation and that of those in your social circle.
Dont know how Ben missed this front page news story from his neighbors to the north.
http://www.thespectrum.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071214/NEWS01/71214002/1002/
It seems that being #1 growing city in the nation cant stop the foreclosure blob from eating you.
Fellow sitting next to me at the holiday party last night at work has a mom in Tampa who wants to relocated to SD to be near her son. Trouble is, she owns a condo that just won’t sell, despite her going to the trouble of burying a St. Joseph statue in the yard (I suggested that strategy to my coworker, who apparently passed it on to her MIL).
Perhaps she accidentally buried a St. Jude statue?
IRC, St. Jude is the patron of desperate causes.
Almost forgot — he offered me some sage advice to buy a home next year, “before all the good ones are gone.”
Patrons ain’t
It’s sad to observe that 99% of the population still don’t see what’s going on and that we are seeing the worse financial crisis since the depression. It isn’t as if one needs an IQ of 180 to realize that people cannot afford to buy at current property prices but might - just might - be able to afford to buy when the current prices have dropped to at least 1999 - 2000 levels. That’s a long way off and it depends on a strong economy. It wouldn’t be so bad if it was just a property bubble but it isn’t. It’s far more serious and the foundation for this mess was totally the fault of Mr. Magoo and his, “Let’s give away money and grant un-limited credit to anyone who has a pulse,” program. Those who save have been ignored and, if anything, made to pay the price for Mr. Magoo’s incompetence. If the property bubble wasn’t bad enough, we can add the massive (incredibly massive) credit card bubble and the massive (incredibly massive) US debt. Throw in inflation, etc, it isn’t a pretty picture. The piper always gets paid - the problem now is, who is the piper. One thing I can guarantee - it isn’t going to be The Financial Gangsters of Wall Street or any of Mr. Magoo’s or Bahgdad Ben Bernanke’s pals.
“It’s sad to observe that 99% of the population still don’t see what’s going on and that we are seeing the worse financial crisis since the depression.”
My dinner mate seemed extremely puzzled over the fact that his mom has had her house on the market for months with no offers (although he was aware of the credit crunch), not to mention that there have been no, nada, zero offers on any of myriad comparable condos on the Tampa market in her area over the past several months. I had neither the heart, patience nor inclination to explain to him how the bottom has dropped out of Florida condo demand, and that only those willing to sell by Dutch auction w/o a reserve are likely to succeed going forward.
“the good ones”? That’s a good one.
“With the real estate and construction industries in the doldrums, retail sales dropping, student enrollment down 8,000 statewide this year and agriculture output threatened by a serious drought, the state’s problems have only been increasing in recent months.”
Many states are in the midst of bad droughts, and where will their citizens end up in search of aqua?
(pdf: whoop whoop!)
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/archive/20071211/pdfs/total_dm_071211.pdf
The Southeast in general, looks to be not swimming in it…
Every cloud has a silver lining and the lack of rain in NWF this past year has lead to the best (tastiest) blueberries, watermelons, and other sweet fruits in years if not decades, the complete absence of mosquitoes, and a bumper pecan harvest.
We were without our summer crop of oranges, (Valencia) because of the late January freeze, and that sucked…
I read in contrast, that pit fruits had crop yields 10-20% more, because of the cold.
All fruits produce better, sweeter if the weather is dry, once the fruit has set. Doesn’t matter if it’s grapes, apples, or oranges. Ideal situation for citrus in Fla. is a dry fall and chilly (not frosty) nights.
14% YOY drop in Pinellas County translates to 4.5 years if we suppose prices will fall in half. That sounds reasonable.
“statistics don’t go back far enough to prove whether it rivals declines in earlier housing slumps.”
Where do these ppl get their information? Two years ago pretty much all realtors were telling ppl that housing “never” goes down in value, and it’s always a great time to buy. Now there are all these reports about previous slumps. I guess since most realtors had less than 2 years experience that was the only relevant historical period.
What gets me are the previously silent “experts” who are now proclaiming RE is in its third year of decline.
Projects such as Brickton Village, an affordable condominium development under construction in Fletcher, have also felt the slowdown.”
We’ve got a few of these on the drawing boards here, too, though I don’t see any real activity with them. But we go around and around about what the the city should do to “create” affordable housing. Even at 80,000, how many people have even 5% down? So I supposed they’ll get down pmt assistance from builder-money laundered through nonprofits. But what good does that do? Doesn’t that just give the builder an excuse to price things higher?
One of the planned low-income developments is supposedly going to have an onsite mortgage & financial assistance office to keep everyone up to date on payments I guess.
I think the only real answer for “affordable housing” is for lower income to rent (can they afford 1st and last?) and wait for a housing crash like this one. And just when no one thinks it’s worth it, buy a house cheap. Borrow the down from family, or save it up! or whatever.
OT question for NotinMT - Rate the following for livability, if you’re so inclined: Helena, Bozeman, Missoula, Whitefish/Kalispell. Thanks.
“With the real estate and construction industries in the doldrums, retail sales dropping, student enrollment down 8,000 statewide this year and agriculture output threatened by a serious drought, the state’s problems have only been increasing in recent months.”
@#$%^&*! Oh, PLEASE! First of all, regarding drought. Florida used to have plenty of water to see the state through the dry times, having more freshwater springs than any state in the nation. And it used to have rainy seasons sufficient to make up for deficits of moisture. HELLO PEOPLE! When you pave over much of the state so that water runs off instead of percolating into the aquifer for storage, you have water problems. When you cut down trees wholesale without any thought for moisture, cooling and pollution control, you get more heat and desert eventually. HELLO!!!! When you allow private foreign companies to pump out the headwaters of rivers on which the populations of cities depend, the level of the rivers go down. HELLO!!!! But, OH, NO! Let’s not look at these factors, let’s just FREAK OUT about drought and build de-sal plants that are miserable failures and reservoirs that threaten neighborhoods. Let’s permit landscapes that have no business being in Florida and then institute water restrictions on the watering of those landscapes. Let’s just keep creating the problems and then coming up with solutions that DON’T WORK or create even more problems.
As to agriculture output, OH, PLEASE! What in the name of jeebus does anyone THINK happens to agriculture output when agricultural land is sold off for development? What happens to those illegal ag workers when they turn up their noses at ag jobs and go into construction? What happens when the construction jobs dry up? Can Florida think this through? No, it can’t. Why? Because we import economists from California who invent stuff to say with no basis in fact. And then decision makers listen to them.
Whew. Rant off.
Wow! That was a GREAT one! I just might print it off, sort of a primer for future rants of my own.
Anybody watch Bill Moyers last night? Did a piece with Ron Paul discussing personal responsibility and self-sufficiency. Contrasted his views with a prof from Columbia, who kept saying that government’s job is to provide a level playing field for all Americans–that recent immigrants, the poor, the less-gifted, et. al. need tax dollars and government direction to keep smoothing out any differences.
This is the crux of the issue to me. Simply, life isn’t fair. Even with all the government intervention, it remains unfair, because it’s a tough, Darwinian struggle, and that’s the way it is. This enormous government apparatus to deliver “fairness” needs to be dismantled, and the solvency crisis might just be the ticket. At which point the government could be reduced to it’s real mandate–maintaining infrastructure and enforcing financial and safety regulations.
Spike - I was going along there with you until that last sentence. I’ve read the Constitution a couple of times - I’m not sure about that infrastructure and finance stuff - I always thought the mandate was (1) defense from foreign aggression and (2) a system for a redress of grievances based on the principle of equal justice for all citizens.
Paul,
I guess my point was that a severe economic retrenchment and an erosion of tax revenues on all levels, local, state and federal, may start to break the government stranglehold on the country–and that that would be a good thing.
Hi Palmetto.
Don’t you think people create problems just so they and others can make money off of supposedly fixing them? Think of all the fake diseases doctors and drug companies have come up just in the last two decades: chronic fatigue symdrome, irritable bowel syndrome, bipolar disorder (a remake of old fashioned manic depression), hyperactivity (formally called bad behavior), and my favorite of all time: repressed memory syndrome (with “memories” implanted by the loony “therapist”). If the police eliminated drug dealing, half of our police officers would be out-of-work, and if illegal immigrants went home, tons of “immigration” lawyers would go broke. 99% of “therapists” are complete unnecessary, and don’t even get me started on the health food industry, which is riddled with malarkey.
Many so called problems could be easily fixed if the powers-that-be wanted them fixed, but our economy depends on misery, so they will always find ways to create more, or at least, to make us believe in more so someone can swoop in for a price to save us.
Haha, just caught this on the 1/2-hour Realtor ad on local cable: http://buynewbuynow.org/
Must just be Illinois being a “great time to buy now and buy new” right?
That website almost had me hysterical with laughter! The only thing missing was the phrase, “We care.” How long will it be before these builders and realtors wake up to the fact that the phrase, “Now is a good time to buy,” or “There has never been a better time to buy,” is starting to make people pee themselves with laughter.
‘The predicted 25% drop can be accounted for by putting it in perspective with the 25% increase throughout the market several years ago.’
1.25 * 0.75 = 0.9375
so, you are 6.25% less than a year ago…..
I hate to think they were implying one broke even.
“‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash. ‘Now that property values are coming down, property taxes will come down, too.’”
I just don’t buy this viewpoint. Governments are horrible at cutting expenses. I doubt that most states or local governments were stashing the extra cash that was produced by the skyrocketing property taxes, Building permit money and other Housing Bubble induced windfalls.
This money was not only spent, but generally there is also major borrowing done to build large infrastructure projects. These projects are often financed by bonds, that will be repaid with the new Permanently higher level of tax revenue. Most of the time, these governments not only spend what they got in tax reciepts this year, but obligate themselves for many, many years to come.
Point blank they now have obligations that require $X dollars, and if property values go down then millage rates will have to go up to get them back to $X dollars to keep the extra people employed, cool and maintain the new underused schools, maintain the school buses and on and on and on…
There might be some minor tax relief, but I wouldn’t count on anything major to come your way.
I very much agree, local governments have gotten used to all that money coming in and they will not want to cut their spending.
Instead of cutting the tax rate when assessments went up local governments spent, often on projects which supported the RE industry and now that the money is drying up they are not likely to cut spending since they still have to pay for all those new roads, government offices, vehicles, employees they have accumulated.
The gov’t is screwed and will have to cut back or raise taxes anyway. But, people need to lower the price. It’s a lot better than them trying to overhaul the tax code and people end up more screwed.
LOWER THE PRICE PEOPLE.
“Winnie Nelon, a Massachusetts snowbird and founder of Homeowners Against Runaway Taxes, said about 10 tourists came up to her at the Winter Fest on Anna Maria Island this month and said they were thinking of buying here until they looked at the costs of property taxes and insurance.”
Whine whine whine from Fkorida.
(1) They do NOT have a state income tax.
(2) They want this, that and all kinds of things in government services.
(3) Have to pay the bills somehow.
Oh - and if you are going to live in a place that has the statistical probability of getting hit by a hurricane of over 90%, what did you THINK it would cost to buy insurance? You assumed the risk of living there - deal with it.
I didn’t know Willie Nelson was such a real estate activist. I guess it was always on his mind.
After the above real estate conversations took place a bunch of Englishmen that wanted to buy in Florida started their own group. It is called Foreigners Against Runaway Taxes or FART. They are hoping their message will spread like, you guessed it, in church.
Willie supports any cause which is in his own best interests. Usually too drunk to add anything to the discussion, however.
Apologies for continuing the digression, but - unless he’s recently pulled a Mayor of Casterbridge, Willie hasn’t had a drop for over 20 years. Uses weed.
It interesting then that he exhibits all the characteristics of an alcoholic. Words are great, but I look at the objective data. I could be wrong, but usually am not.
Correct.
Not “Willie” but Wi - NN -ie…. I had to look twice when I read that line too
Exactly. She wants the gov’t to take a hit so she can book the profit. Lower the price Winnie.
Snowbirds pay income tax in their home state. They’re raped in taxes from FL. I’m not a snowbird and Floridians may find it funny, but their economy is going into the Sh*tter. Turning away ppl that contributed to the economy thru sales taxes and property taxes and did not use their services yr round is pretty stupid IMHO. The millionaires,developers and now public service unions in Floriduh have entirely too much influence politically. They are very much turning their state into Calif. and Ny without the good jobs to justify it.
“‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash.
Perceived problem? My advice is to force this idiot out of office during the next election!
though statistics don’t go back far enough to prove whether it rivals declines in earlier housing slumps.”
from 1989 to 1995 Venice sfh kept creeping up
“Winnie Nelon, a Massachusetts snowbird and founder of Homeowners Against Runaway Taxes, said about 10 tourists came up to her at the Winter Fest on Anna Maria Island this month and said they were thinking of buying here until they looked at the costs of property taxes and insurance.”
“‘Now they are looking elsewhere,’ Nelon said.”
“‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash. ‘Now that property values are coming down, property taxes will come down, too.’”
Bravo Joe!
Winnie, Lower the f***ing price!
From the St. Pete Times story.
This sorta got lost in the shuffle, but I found it to be rather interesting:
“At this year’s sales pace, Pasco would need 32 months to sell off its condos. Realtors consider seven to 10 months a healthy supply. It’s the same story in Pinellas and Hillsborough.”
Notice the healthy market figures. Weren’t they always 6 to 8 months going into this slow-down??
Now, it’s healthy when there is a 7 to 10 month supply.
Next, it will be healthy when it’s just under a year…. or 2.
And to think, they are still building! If you all want, I can take pics of developments under construction and all the extra inventory still coming onto the market.
People thinking builders will stop building is false. They all talk about the need to cut back but how do you tell lardass to stop eating? He will only stop when he has a heart attack and croacks (goes BK).
diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
Go to sptimes.com, click on the money sections and then the (un)realestate section and post your comments to these articles. It seems that the realtors are posting mostly upbeat and tainted information trying to make people think that now is a good time to buy.
“‘My advice would be to stop talking about the perceived problem, because I see it as self-correcting,’ said Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash. ‘Now that property values are coming down, property taxes will come down, too.’”
Someone finally gets it. It’s ALL about PRICE, what Realtors ™ and other market shills call “value”.
These high “valuations” were ridiculous, mostly caused by fraud and speculation. The market will correct, but it is very unfortunate that property TAX accessors and insurance companies used the speculative “values” as representative of real market price.
An arm’s length transaction wouldn’t allow these high prices.
Cause for a lawsuit? As in, the gov’t didn’t take enough care to investigate nature of increases, thus violating responsiblity? A dream, I know.
Blah
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/121507dnbuscanadaloonie.2a461f7.html
Don’t sweat it txchick57.
I’ll bet these morons from Canada are leveraging their exiting equity (which is about to go POOF! like the US market) to swing the US house.
I hope more idiotic Canadians scramble to “buy” US houses.
They will crash and burn harder.
BTW, I’m from Canada waiting patiently for our RE implosion to start.
Someone finally gets it.
Manatee County Commissioner Joe McClash thinks the housing bubble is a perceived problem, not a real problem per his comments on the news. He hopes we all stop talking about the housing problems because it is now impacting the local goverments and business who have their hands in the commisioners pockets.
The comps in most areas are tainted by the overvalued properties that sold and you are correct that the local goverments and insurance companies are using the higher values to their benefit.
Fuzzy, your name and the demeanor of some of your posts seem to indicate some connection to der politzei.
If so, could you tell us how vigorous police at the state and municipal level have been at pursuing the massive housing fraud we have seen in the last four years?