Local Market Observations!
What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Builder incentives? “It’s the time of year for gifts, and home builders are ready to give, in order to receive. It’s no secret that 2007 has not been a good year for home builders. It is predicted that 18,000 single-family and townhouses have been started in the Chicago area this year, almost a 50 percent decrease from 2005, said Chris Huecksteadt, Chicago director for Metrostudy. To encourage buyers, home incentives are abundant — from very first homes to dream houses.”
“In Elgin at West Point Gardens, both townhouses and single-family homes ready for occupancy come with price breaks. For example, a four-bedroom Templeton with a porte-cochere, 9-foot ceilings and a home site on a pond is available at $412,275, down $40,000.”
Or auctions? “It’s a buyer’s market for those looking to buy a home. One bit of evidence: this Sunday, some Colorado homes will be auctioned off. They are homes that have been through foreclosure. In an effort to unload them, the banks have decided they will go to the highest bidder.”
“One hundred Colorado homes will be auctioned in one day, from Arvada to Westminster, and from Greeley to Colorado Springs.”
“And some could go for bargain basement prices. ‘Well, this particular home was previously listed at $203,900, and on Sunday the starting bid price is $85,000. So it will be up to the bidders to decide the price,’ said Martin Clouser, the Director of Auction Operations.”
More foreclosures? “South Dakota continues to rank 49th in the country for foreclosures. RealtyTrac, admits that the company only bases it’s report on three South Dakota counties, Minnehaha, Meade and Brown.”
“But there are many more counties in the state that are seeing the rise of foreclosures hit their area of the South Dakota and are watching people lose their homes. Davison County Civil Deputy Kathy Fouberg says, ‘It’s just been amazing, the amount of sales that we have.’”
“Dozens of homes in Davison county have been sold this year, but not by local realtors, by the sheriff’s department. Fouberg says, ‘This is a case where I’d just assume we were in the bottom of the barrel but I don’t think that is correct.’”
“Fouberg is seeing the foreclosure trend hit her county this year. The county has seen 34 homes foreclosed on in 2007, that’s more homes than the county has had in the last three years combined.”
Industry changes? “Nearly a year ago, NABOR quit sending its monthly sales numbers to the Florida Association of Realtors, the voice of Florida real estate. That meant they were no longer visible to the public, or the media. But that’s about to change.”
“NABOR’s decision to keep itself out of the state association’s monthly reports came after they began to show sharp drops in home sales and prices in the Naples area. Some questioned the group’s motives, though leaders insisted they weren’t trying to hide anything.”
“‘Our idea is to give the market what it wants. The numbers are the numbers,’ said Joe Ballarino, a former NABOR president.”
I have found a great local site about the market in Irvine, but does anyone know of a good site about the north LA market (Valencia area)?
I’ve just gone on to realtor.com and watched prices go down, down, down for Santa Clarita & Cyn Country. Wide disparity in asking prices too - same neighborhood/floorplan but 100k difference in asking price(s). I’m thinking that there are a lot of sellers underwater.
There’s a poster who comes on HBB every now & then to report on Valencia/CC/SC, but I cannot remember their username. Sorry.
~Misstrial
I’m getting ill. Crosseyed oinker Terry Keenan on Fixed News interviewed mortgage liar who stated housing market hit bottom and is on its way up again.
Leave it to Fox Noise to air the most outlandish lies ever.
I hear ya. They don’t call it Fuax News for nothing. Sad thing is most of the MSM is joining in.
Faux is spelled FAUX
I watch the investing shows there for entertainment. I like to hear what Jonathan Hoenig says. He’s an Ayn Rand fan. I never take their advice on investing. and find it humorous that they cheerlead a different set of stocks every week. What do they expect the viewers to do? Sell every week and buy what they advise the current week?
Why, yes - churning generates FEES for brokers, so they get rich while we get poor! The perfect “solution” to that annoying problem called “the middle class!”
I`ve stopped watching Fox news completely. Their Sat. morning 2 hour shill show is the worst, with Mister Ha Ha, (Tobin Smith) beng a total joke with zero credibility.
As joe mamma pointed out, there is a wide conspiracy across the mainstream media to pump real estate and the retail goldilocks economy. It’s not just Fox. The Boston Globe here in Massachusetts unfailingly prints a “report” and associated commentary from the MARtians (Mass Association of Realtors) predicting house price appreciation just 90 day away. This has gone on month after month for 24 months.
I can’t stop watching Faux News, albeit in brief doses. Their news-babes are just too hot.
I caught the last few minutes of Cashin In(?) yesteday. I never saw it before. If this is the same program, the other two folks being inteviewed pretty much stated he was delusional and the carnage had yet to get rolling. The one guy said he was buying selected properties in Florida I believe at 50%+ reductions. The gal moderator though was pushing for the shill (Keenan)bon the pink cloud.
dersertfox
How about $200K below the 2005 selling price of $915,000 in San Diego?
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/rfs/508047054.html
Yes, that is a sound barrier in the back yard for the traffic noise from I-15 which is directly below the house.
And come on… when are we going to get past this absurd idea of value range pricing?! An 80K range for offers they will “entertain.” How 2005 of them.
The local news made a big deal about this auction in Colorado on Sunday. The deals will come buying these properties 2-4 years after the auction when the new buyers Sunday go into foreclosure.
Doing a little research this morning on Stockton California……Boy oh boy….The wheels are realy comming off my friends…..Now seeing forclosures @ sub $100. per ft….Way, Way below replacement cost….I saw one 2000 sq ft house @ $71. a foot….
Thank you scdave! It’s music to my ears.
Like 1000 lawyers at the bottom of the ocean, it’s a good start.
More to go in most valley places. The air is very dirty. For your health, don’t aspire to live there. Prices don’t reflect the shortening lifespans due to breathing in the foul bay area smog that comes in through the delta. Consider the Sierra Nevada foothills above the smog line. At least 4,000 feet!
Last Sundays classifieds had more than on ad stating $100k under appraisal in Flagstaff. But also had this one:
‘Pine Canyon Retreat
3bd/3ba 200 sq ft deck.
$230k below appraisal $970,000
owner/agent’
Here’s a place I would like to live in downtown St. Petersburg.
http://tampa.craigslist.org/apa/509158094.html
The pictures don’t do the building justice. It’s absolutely beautiful up close (”in person???”), and looks like something from a Deco-theme superhero movie. The top floor sold a while back and includes the rooftop bar area where long-dead movie stars used to hang out.
I’m not overly thrilled with this condo, but there aren’t any others shown.
“and includes the rooftop bar area where long-dead movie stars used to hang out.”
That’ll clinch it for me. Where do I sign up?
“concider???”
RE: How the hedgies live.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2007/12/16/living_large
It is despicable that they put this thing up and then don’t like their tax bill. The heating bill must dwarf the taxes.
I must be the only person around who likes wide, roomy garage doors so I don’t have to worry about whacking the mirrors when I pull in. Even this humongous mansion has what look to be small garage doors. Maybe I was born to live on a farm and to park where I keep the tractor.
Wow, that building is gorgeous. Now that’s a condo! I normally hate condos, but man, that’s one I’d actually want to live in.
Damn, maybe condos would be more in demand from people OTHER than investors if the buildings they were in looked something like that, hell, anything else besides a stucco box or office building!
Saw a huge price reduction this week on a REO in Sacramento that I track through Zip Realty: $270k to $230k.
Sale history:
02/27/98: $134,000
11/15/05: $395,000
07/03/07: $347,081 (foreclosure)
Recent Listing History (143 DOM)
07/25/07: $324,900
08/16/07: $309,900 ($15k reduction)
09/12/07: $289,900 ($20k reduction)
11/07/07: $269,900 ($20k reduction)
12/13/07: $229,900 ($40k reduction)
According to my research into housing rentals in that area, housing prices should more or less be around $100/sqft. At it’s new list price, it’s still at $125/sqft, so we still need to see another 20% decrease from current price. Of course that assumes that it’s in average condition and location, which is probably isn’t (right next to a main road with no nearby parks). So fair value probably puts in somewhere in the $75-$100/sqft range.
In other words, despite the initial REO listing being at 18% below what it sold for 2005 and in addition to $95k in price reductions over the past five months (24% reduction from what it sold for in 2005), it still needs to come down another 12% from where it sold in 2005 (20% from its current list).
To recap:
18% + 24% + 12% = 54% decrease from 2005 sale price
As far as the market has fallen, we still have a long way to go. Even farther if the local economy goes into recession and there are mounting job losses and negative population growth.
For those considering buying in Sacramento, HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THIS TIME NEXT YEAR. Otherwise, you’ll find yourself catching a falling knife.
Median list price on SD ziprealty.com just dipped below $450,000 for the first time since I have been keeping track. Looks like that $417,000 cap on the FHA loan guarantee might be sufficient to insure affordable housing loans against default, at least in San Diego.
Here are the stats I am looking at:
Homes on ziprealty inventory (SFR + condo) = 18,855
Median order statistic = (18,855 + 1) / 2 = 9428
Number of current listings at $450,000 or below = 9605
Top 200 listings ranked by list price:
List Price Number of Homes Rankings
———– ———————- ———-
$450,000 171 listings 9605 to 9435
$449,999 3 listings 9434 to 9432
$449,998 1 listing 9431
$449,996 1 listing 9430
$449,990 3 listings 9429 to 9427 (Median)
$449,950 1 listing 9426
$449,900 20+ listings 9425 to 9406-
Notice how the dearth of bids is flattening out the offer price distribution. At this point, the distribution near the median is squashed to the point where it is flatter than Kansas.
Update to today’s numbers (12/16/07)
Number of listings = 18,865 (ten more than yesterday)
Median order statistic = (18,865 + 1) / 2 = 9433
Number of current listings at $450,000 or below = 9612 (seven more than yesterday)
Top 200 listings ranked by list price:
List Price / Number of Homes / Rankings
———– —————————- ————-
$450,000 173 listings 9612 to 9440
$449,999 3 listings 9439 to 9437
$449,998 1 listing 9436
$449,996 1 listing 9435
$449,990 3 listings 9434 to 9432 (Median)
$449,950 1 listing 9431
$449,900 18+ listings 9430 to 9413-
In Northern Va, approaching 12 months of supply, and sales down 25% YTD.
Hey but prices are only 1% down. Look out beloooowww
http://www.nvar.com/market/pressrelease/prgreaternvnov07.html
Hey maybe all the Baby Boomers getting ready to retire will buy up these unwanted houses. Hahaha….we’re doomed
A townhouse in our Alexandria,VA neighborhood finally sold after price reductions and months on the market. The realtor had the nerve to post a “Too Late” sign above the ‘for sale’ sign in the yard. If you don’t get there in the first six months, you’re just out of luck.
ATLANTA—This week we became #1– in bank robberies—and 2 more happened yesterday. Although I can’t fathom why anyone would rob a bank these days, as it is just a one-way ticket to jail, it does say something about the desperation of the poor. And the middle class are right behind them in desperation—this week I was behind a nicely dressed middle class guy in line at Publix—he had to use 2 different credit cards to pay for about $40 worth of groceries.
Foreclosures are still running at 5,000+ per month. WSB Radio reported that it is very common for subdivisions to now have 1 in 5 homes in foreclosure, and some entire subdivisions have been foreclosed on. Developers & builders are also starting to go under in a big way. Community banks are getting stuck with the real dogs—the half built houses. A long time construction insider says that by the end of next year, 50% of the metro area builders will have gone under. I also hear that builders can’t hardly give away new condos & townhomes—inventory in this category is supposedly enormous.
‘Although I can’t fathom why anyone would rob a bank these days’
-Why rob a bank when you can flip ten properties?
Bankrobbers are getting peanuts by using guns. The big bucks are stolen by using the ink pen.
The keyboard is far mightier than the pen.
We read about bank robbers all the time here. The mainstream media call them “victims” and we call them “FBs”. Congress introduces legislation so they don’t even have to pay income tax on their stolen money!
Missoula sales for November (97) down 23.02 percent from November 2006 (126). Missoula sales, year to date (1301) down 13.5 percent from end of November 2006 (1505).
Missoula and outlying areas sales for November (104) down 20.61 percent from November 2006 (131). Missoula and outlying, year to date (1437) down 15.57 percent from end of November 2006 (1702)
Median prices, however, are up across the board:
Missoula, November: from $199,175 to $224, 900, an increase of 12.92 percent. Missoula & outlying, November: from $199,350 to $225,900, an increase of 15.57 percent. Year-to-date median selling prices rose 5.72 percent and 5.24 percent respectively.
Seems like there are a lot of foreclosures and preforclosures at foreclosure.com. About 50 BKs. Also more trustee sales in the paper. Still nothing about any of this in the local paper, yet they ran the AP story about Candadians “snapping up” houses in the states.
I had high hopes for this week’s “Montana Focus” PBS segment on the housing market. I should have known better. Gene Brodeur interviewed a woman who can’t refinance, then focused on agents and bankers who say everything is fine, the economy is just “balancing out.” One person mentioned the state’s low unemployment rate. He said anyone with rising interest rates can just get a second job.
In the next (non-housing) segment, Chuck Johnson, a MT reporter, mentioned that MT has more people working 2 or more jobs than all but one other state. So unless W can give us more hours in the day, getting another job is not going to keep the market from falling in Montana.
I can hardly wait for the pop, though I know many, many Montanans will be affected. It is getting REALLY old to keep hearing that we are immune and to keep seeing astronomical asking prices.
Report from southern New Mexico:
Neighbor who is a retired builder told me that the number of homes for sale in my zip (88007) is not just due to flood worries - its because many of those homeowners (AZ cash-outs) have big mortgages that they can’t afford anymore. Buyers take note!
~Misstrial
Has said neighbor applied for Mensa yet?
Ha! (He told me not to buy here.)
~Misstrial
But the important part of your neighbor’s statement is that increasingly, RE cheerleading and denial is falling by the wayside. It’s too big to hide anymore.
True, better late than never, I guess.
~Misstrial
Report from Dublin, CA
This information is from a huge master planned community called Dublin Ranch Villages (Toll Brothers). I’m not certain when the project actually started since I’ve only lived in Dublin since 2003. But I do know that a former PeopleSoft engineer bought a townhouse/condo (I forget which it was) in that community in 2001 for around $300k. Below is a listing from today’s ZipRealty:
94568
Listing Date - 5/10/07
Original Asking price - unknown
HOA: $197 (I’m SURE that’s a drop…most of the HOAs there were MUCH higher.)
Price Reduced: 07/08/07 — $599,950 to $589,950
Price Reduced: 10/04/07 — $589,950 to $529,950
Price Reduced: 11/07/07 — $529,950 to $499,000
DOM: 219 days
I couldn’t find the sale history for this unit, but if the zillow information is correct, the property taxes paid in 2007 were $5,968 versus the 2004 total of $2,743.
BayQT~
I drove through Santiago and Modjeska Canyons this week and not surprisingly there were a large number of for sale signs. Many of these houses were in the burn areas and were saved by the firefighters (God Bless em). Here’s one in Silverado Cyn, which is off of Santiago Canyon,
http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/rfs/510223921.html
A really bad time to sell for these folks. They have the double whammy of the Bubble bust and the fires. Even if they find an FB who is clueless about the recent firestorm one look at the surrounding environment will show how close each property came to being destroyed.
The FB would have to not have a nose to smell the fire burn area as you drive through.
There ya have it, LIFE, as it is handed to ya.
We’ve been watching the canyons for a long time. Dad owns a place in Trabuco and we almost bought in Silverado in 2005. All of these houses (including the one in the link) have been on the market for a good year. Nothing moving out there even before the fires. I remember in 2002 places were going for around $200,000 even with double lots. I’ll wait for that again before buying. Too much risk with the fires, floods and rockslides out there. Great community and area, but the reason it was so cool for so long was that it was a rural place with funky old cabins that attacted a huge range of people from the old hippies to a few wealthy outdoorsmen. It’ll go back down to 2002 prices for sure.
Like Ben, I’ve also been predicting the US housing market would tumble. I got out a few years ago and started buying real estate outside of the USA and it was a good call.
I’ll look to get back in at the end of 2008 or 2009. The funny thing is that I’ve contacted some of these builders that you list on your Blog Ben that are trying to sell. I’ve emailed from their websites and not one has emailed me back. I post how I read about them on a real estate blog and I find it interesting they aren’t even responding back. Not exactly a good way for them to sell their property.
Buyers should have a field day the next year or so with prices continuing to plummet.
buyers should have a field day? Do you really think that the price plummet will stop the day that you buy ??
ancecdotal report from ne ohio
I saw 20 houses from july-oct.
1 sold
16 expired and are currently off the market.
3 have lowered prices. 10K grand here or there on a 400K house isnt much.
So what happens come the NY? Spring?
I periodically get flyers from a local Realtor that canvasses my neighborhood in Charlotte. Normally it’s the usual fluff, (desirable area, prices rising, etc) but this was the first time I’d seen him say point blank that the national slowdown has ‘hit’ Charlotte.
There is a home on my street that has been for sale since summer. The seller is fairly motivated, since he bought something on the other side of town and moved. It’s been the 3rd cheapest house now in the subdivision for at least a month, and it is not pending yet. Not a bad house, it backs up to an apartment complex but it’s one of the largest parcels available. In a proper market, I think it would have sold by now.
Proof that rents are declining in Chicago ‘burbs…
This TH was posted for rent on Craigslist about 2-3 months ago with an asking of $3,500/mo. They lower their price $100-$200 every 4-6 weeks or so. This is the first listing directly from the owner (previously offered through a realtor), and the price dropped $200 from a week ago. No commission for her!
http://chicago.craigslist.org/nwc/apa/508159575.html
The description sounds as if the owner is saying, “Only a fool will not rent my nice town house for 2700 per month.” A potential tenant will say, “I am no fool to rent this from you at 2700/pm while you wait for the ‘turnaround’ in the market.”
Realistically, the owner should offer the rental at $1500 /pm OR sell the unit at about 150,000. There is no other option. He is doomed.
It is snowing like crazy in Massachusetts. Today’s Open Houses may not see even the RealtWhore! A really bad time to be a seller in these parts. The trouble is they are reducing prices muh too slowly, instead of one big drop to get ahead of the pack! Let the carnage continue, summer is still 6 months away.
Neil, agreed prices are indeed still way to high in NE. We’ve had 20+ inches of snow in the last few days. Open houses a month ago were 15-20 pages in the Globe. Today maybe 5-8.
Meanwhile Globe had feature story about 21000 sf home (that’s correct 3 zero’s) being built by co-owner of the Celtics for his wife and 2 kids in Weston or Wellesley. One kid is away at college.
Wants out, we had a similar story in a CNY lifestyle magazine last summer. It spotlighted a young upperwardly mobile couple w/2 young children with this giant 10 k sq foot home. Less than a year later, it’s for sale.
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/more_photos.cgi?mlnum=146286
The whole population of Camillus could live there, and the one of Romulus too.
We haven’t seen significant reductions in list prices yet in CNY but as I watch the coasts and other bubble areas tumble in value, I wonder if there will come a point when our home price and tax package will become an expensive housing choice among the nation.
Avg listing price in Baldwinsville, NY is in the $220k’s with a $7-$10k tax package to boot. (Muggy was it you that mentioned some Rochester burbs avg’d in the $300k’s?) If CNY no longer offers a cheaper place to live, will much needed employers be enticed to move or stay here despite the harsh business climate? I would imagine, though delayed, we’d end up w/some resulting downward price pressure right there.
http://cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=184274
$400k for 1700 sq feet and no yard in CNY. No it’s not waterfront and no its not even that easy a commute relative to other towns. I’d file this listing/price under “clueless”.
Carrie, That can be beat endlessly in Eastern Mass.
We moved here from Eastern MA. It is not an equal market.
It’s butt ugly too. It still does not go into my head how such a price (in that area) can be publicized in all seriousness. That should be 130s.
CarrieAnn — “I wonder if there will come a point when our home price and tax package will become an expensive housing choice among the nation.”
IMO, that is what will cause prices to drop everywhere - and folks there won’t know what hit ‘em. There can and will be such price disparities as to cause people to move to other cities, states or regions to escape the penalty of remaining in a relatively overpriced area.
Yet another foreclosure in my immediate neighorhood located in coastal San Diego County. Still trying to dissuade a friend from buying in the area. She keeps saying it’s different here. I keep forwarding her news articles that indicate otherwise. But the FSBOs are holding out, especially the one’s who inherited their 1950/1960s era homes and are demanding 1M plus for a stucco shack. Went to an Open House with said friend in Del Mar where REALTORS looked pretty glum as they carved out ham for all the other REALTORS dropping by for a free lunch.
Went over to the beach (from Orlando) yesterday. Big mistake. Difficult to describe the feeling of red tide air hitting your lungs — you just begin to cough uncontrollably until you get inside a car or a building. It’s a shame that this will ding a lot of beach tourist business over the holidays.
Visited friends there and returned Sat. evening, driving past a fairly large condo on the Indian River that opened last year. No red tide smell in the area — that usually is confined to within a mile so from the beach. I’d guess that there are about 80 units in the building I saw. There were Christmas lights on in just six of those, and only in just a few more were there any lights at all. This is peak season. My surmise is that there are a whole lotta FBs who are stuck with condos in that building that they can’t flip. And that leads to the question regularly asked here: how will they be able to maintain the place if not enough owners pay the condo fees?
Went to an open house today (for fun)…
Agent says “houses in this price range are still selling quickly and are perfect for first time buyers such as yourself!”
My reply was “this would be our fifth house and why has this house been on the market since July?”
Yeah, that “perfect for first-time buyers” really gets me, too. What it implies is that (1) all subsequent “buys” must be massive trade-ups, and (2) no matter how much you earn, or whether your earnings have leveled off, your home-buying appetite should always be steadily, inexorably increasing. Anything more than 3 housing buys in a lifetime automatically requires that you live in a 4000+ sq ft mansion on a beachfront, golf resort, or ski mecca.
I went to the Colorado auction this morning. My father, a long-time real estate investor, was interested in the Colorado Springs properties. We stayed through the bidding for the first 20 properties. I estimate one thousand people showed up. The starting bid was less than half the last list price. The unpublished reserve price seemed to be about 80% of list price, and 90% of the homes we saw sell were for more than the reserve price. With a 5% premium tacked onto each winning bid, most houses sold for 10% below list. There were no bargains to be had. My Dad was willing to pay $125K for a SFR with recent list of $189K, but the bidding quickly blew by. Went for $172K after adding in the 5% premium.
Interestingly, the only on-site financing (a pre-qual was required, even for cash buyers) was CFC.
Reporting from Mesa, AZ:
Two 55+ communities where I have friends - Barclay Village, right off Main St. near Greenfield; and Sunland Village, both have RECORD numbers for sale. Many of these places are second homes for snowbirds, but at least half are full time residents. Nothing, and I mean nothing seems to be selling. In Barclay Village a townhome built in 2005 has never been lived in.
Been on the market and “refreshed” probably four times. Here you have the classic case of foreclosures driving down compsand putting more and more of the people upside down. Townhomes that sold for $255K in 2006, don’t draw open house flies for $195K today. In a 60 unit development, about 20 “officially” for sale. Their little HOA is getting very nervous.
Take a look at the restaurants that used to be packed on Friday, Sat/Sun - half the parking lot empty. No waiting. Waiters and waitresses VERY helpful. Christmas lights and outdoor decorations? Maybe they will come out “next” weekend? Maybe not.
This is only the beginning of the beginning.
There will be boarded up windows everywhere, business suddenly closing for good, and a crime wave like never before; or somebody knows something the rest of us don’t.