The Housing Bubble

The City Paper reports from Tennessee. “The Greater Nashville Association of Realtors has had to report yet another down month in sales. Nashville-area home sales dropped about 19.5 percent in November compared to last November. The median price has been declining since a peak of $196,000 in June, settling at $179,900 last month. Of course, sellers have sold houses in days or even hours and agents in hot areas got accustomed to that. Now the agents talk about the time it is taking. ”

“Brian Taylor, managing broker for Prudential Woodmont Realty’s Nashville office, said it is more important to educate sellers in how to price a house on the front end so it sells instead of establishing a price and lowering after sitting for three months.”

“‘We don’t have the 25 percent premium on housing like we did a year ago,’ Taylor said. He said if it’s not priced right, it won’t sell. ‘I think there are a lot of buyers on the fence looking for a deal.’”

The Daily News Journal from Tennessee. “The house on Gondola Drive was meant to be Jeanette Newton’s last, the home where the nurse turned legal assistant would grow old and retire.”

“But that was before a knee injury forced a job change and an escalating adjustable-rate mortgage pushed her payments up from $828 to nearly $1,200 a month. Now, Newton is in bankruptcy, fighting to save the two-bedroom, two-bath house that she bought three years ago.”

“Six of her neighbors in Chelsea of Priest Lake subdivision have faced similar battles. Five have already lost their homes, and the sixth is on the verge, awaiting an eviction notice. Nashville’s foreclosure rate doubled in 2007, reflecting the depth of the problem.”

“Banks and underwriters should have required higher down payments, steered borrowers away from risky loans and refused to extend credit to buyers who lacked the savings to weather financial downturns, said Kevin Lavender, the former state banking commissioner who warned of a pending foreclosure crisis before leaving office two years ago.”

“‘You have some people who say if the people were greedy enough to sign up for that particular mortgage, they get what they deserve,’ Lavender said. ‘But we have got people slinging pizza by day and selling mortgages by night. We had to know at some point that would be hurtful.’”

The Post Tribune from Indiana. “Portage has grown a reputation in recent years for being a popular place to build a home. During the past eight years, permits for new single-family homes have ranged anywhere from 195 a year to 240 year –until now.”

“Permits in Portage dropped by more than half to just 106, as of the end of November.”

“‘We have a lot more inventory than we need or is healthy,’ said Bob Coolman, president of Coolman Communities Inc.”

“Developers have been building homes without buyers for years, on the hope continued growth would bring in potential homeowners. But that extra building has finally caught up with them, Coolman said.”

“He pointed out that since 1992, demand for new homes reached about 900 a year. But starting in 2002, developers began building about 1,200 a year, leaving more houses than buyers.”

“‘You just have too much saturation,’ Pete Novack, president of the Greater Northwest Indiana Association of Realtors, said. Because housing permits jumped so much during the past few years, a decrease this year still leaves housing permits above levels for 2000 and 2001, he said.”

“‘Builders were throwing up (speculation) homes everywhere,’said Michael Haller, building commissioner for Porter County. ‘Everyone and their brother claimed to be a builder.’”

“A continued downturn in building isn’t good news for builders, Coolman said. But the one group who will benefit are buyers. The glut in new houses mixed with lowered interest rates create near-historic low housing prices, he said.”

“‘This may be the best time ever to buy a house because there’s too much inventory,’ Coolman said. ‘It doesn’t take a genius to figure out it’s a buyer’s market.’”

From Chicago Business in Illinois. “The condo slump has put developer Liviu Mihulet in a tight spot. His lender, Northside Community Bank, filed a lawsuit in August to foreclose on a 32-unit condominium conversion the developer launched in January in West Rogers Park.”

“The bank asserted that the property had declined in value and demanded that Mr. Mihulet put another $500,000 of equity into the project. When he refused, he says, Northside demanded he repay the $3.1-million loan.”

“‘This was an insult,’ says Mr. Mihulet, who is trying to refinance the project.”

“It’s an indignity more developers are facing. As weak condo sales make it harder to pay off construction loans and skittish banks try to reduce their exposure to the depressed market, condo developers are increasingly facing a fate similar to that of the thousands of Chicagoans who may lose their homes to foreclosure.”

“‘In ‘08, we’re going to have a lot more situations to work out than new projects” getting under way, says real estate attorney Steven DeGraff.”

“Mr. DeGraff, a principal at law firm Much Shelist Denenberg Ament & Rubenstein P.C., estimates he now spends 40% to 50% of his time on real estate loan workouts, a lot of them involving condo developers. That part of his practice occupied almost none of his time as recently as midyear.”

“‘The only light that I see at the end of the tunnel is another train coming,’ says Stuart Packer, the developer of a 19-unit condo conversion in West Rogers Park that was hit with a foreclosure suit in July.”

“Mr. Packer owes Hinsdale Bank & Trust Co. $2.2 million on a project he expected to sell out in 12 to 18 months. But 2½ years after he started construction, only four units have sold.”

“A sign of things to come may lie in once-hot neighborhoods like Lincoln Park. In October, LaSalle Bank N.A. filed a foreclosure suit to collect $5.3 million on an overdue construction loan for the Ashton Lofts, a 39-unit project.” “Several condo buyers bailed out of the project as it struggled with construction delays.”

The Bay City Times from Michigan. “Like millions of other Americans, Dave Kozuch of Bay City ran into a bit of trouble making his mortgage payments. About a year ago, the part-time maintenance worker was laid off. Finding $240 per month to pay the note on the $30,000 mortgage he got five years ago, to buy a house wasn’t always possible.”

“Soon, a variety of taxes, fines and insurance premiums sent his $240 monthly payment up to $610.”

“Kozuch says he tried contacting Chase Home Finance to straighten things out. But Kozuch met with frustration. ‘I’d fax something to San Diego, then get a call from Atlanta and a letter from Houston,’ he said. ‘It’s been unreal.’”

“Soon, he received notice the bank was planning to foreclose on his home and sell it at auction. Kozuch is doing all he can to avoid joining a record number of homeowners in Bay County - 378 so far this year - who’ve lost their homes to foreclosure.”

“In the past three years, nearly 1,000 homeowners in Bay County lost theirs that way. Industry experts say Bay County will be among the 10 hardest-hit areas in loss of economic growth spurred by the foreclosure crisis.”

“Kozuch, like many others in his shoes, filed for bankruptcy, which grinds the wheels of foreclosure to a halt. ‘But when I found out how much I’d have to pay each month for my debts through the bankruptcy payments,’ he said, ‘I couldn’t afford that either.’”

“Property values began dropping around 2000 after peaking in many markets, including Bay City. Mike Samborn, president of the Bay County Realtors Association, said the downward adjustment was a needed ‘correction’ to the market - although it’s led many folks to become ‘upside down’ in their mortgages.”

“A look at public real estate records on foreclosed homes in Bay County reveals that the problem exists in inner-city neighborhoods as well as the swankier suburbs. One bank unloaded a home on Woodside Lane, valued at $77,600, for $20,100 last month - less than a fourth of the $84,117 still owed on the mortgage.”

“Another bank sold a home on Eleven Mile Road, assessed at $93,900, for $41,500, a third of what was owed the bank that held the mortgage. And a home on Glen Eagle Drive, valued at $393,900, was purchased after foreclosure for $305,000, more than $50,000 less than what the former owners owed on their primary mortgage.”

“Samborn specializes in foreclosed homes…for the past decade, and he sees a silver lining as housing prices continue to adjust downward. ‘First-time homebuyers get more affordable housing,’ he said. ‘Investors can find deals. And the houses are there, too, for people looking to move up.’”

“The glut of homes on the market may leave the impression houses aren’t selling, but Samborn said sales have been steady over the past three years or so - although prices have been lower, and a larger share of the homes have been through foreclosure.”

“‘There’s a lot to choose from,’ he said. ‘Get yourself properly qualified, and don’t overextend yourself. The sub-prime loans are no longer readily available, but there are still a lot of good loan programs out there.’”

“For one Bay City couple, foreclosure was a double-edged sword. It meant losing the home they raised their children in, but it also yielded a more stress-free lifestyle.”

“They owed more than $50,000 on their mortgage when the bank foreclosed earlier this year. The house, in need of many repairs, sold in November through a sheriff’s auction for a mere $5,000.”

“‘Someone else has those headaches now,’ said the man, who agreed to speak with The Times on condition of anonymity. He’s a private man, and foreclosure carries great stigma.”

“‘The shame and embarrassment is great,’ he said, ‘but sometimes you have to swallow your pride, look at your finances and realize that sometimes, the American dream is unattainable.’”

“He is a white-collar worker. His wife is a blue-collar worker who often finds herself temporarily unemployed. ‘People think if you’ve got problems paying your mortgage that you’re a gambler or a drug addict,’ he said. ‘That’s not always the case. That wasn’t our case. Our family and friends know what happened and understand.’”

“Grown children and grandchildren who required financial help and other personal financial setbacks threw a wrench in the family’s plans to remodel and restore their turn-of-the-century home. The couple refinanced their mortgage a few years back. When an appraiser asked ‘how much they needed,’ they bit off more than they could chew, at a fixed rate of 8.5 percent.”

“Then energy costs shot up. Housing values fell. The wife lost her job. Soon, they could no longer afford to make their mortgage payments. ‘We tried refinancing,’ the man said, ‘but due to extenuating circumstances … we weren’t able to. Things began slipping.’”

“The foreclosure notices began coming in, and after scrambling to get on top of the matter, the couple decided they’d just let it go. They have settled into a spacious, affordable apartment, and are enjoying their new lifestyle.”

“‘We came to a very happy point in our lives,’ the man said. ”We downsized. We got that monkey off our backs.’”