The Housing Bubble

The Mail Tribune reports from Oregon. “During the euphoric final days of a gung-ho real estate market, Cathy Lemble didn’t see the perfect storm brewing as she signed papers at LandAmerica Lawyers Title. Told by her real estate agent and lender that she was making a good move and further assured by her own experience and the backing of her boyfriend, Lemble bought a 1960s vintage house in Ashland for $425,000, more than triple the $133,000 the previous owners paid eight years earlier. That was Aug. 17, 2005.”

“Then the first hint of what was coming appeared on her doorstep. ‘The first newspaper out of the box had a headline that read, ‘Market flattens for first time in decade,’ Lemble recalls. ‘I thought, ‘This does not bode well.’”

“Two years later, Lemble faces the loss of her house and bankruptcy. The 41-year-old part-time teacher is among the more than 750 Jackson County property owners who have defaulted on mortgage payments this year.”

“‘I had spent my entire life in rapidly escalating markets, in the Bay Area, Boulder, Colorado, and then moving here seven years ago,’ Lemble says. ‘I thought of real estate as the safest investment around; I’m devastated. The bottom line is that I’ve lost every penny.’”

“Getting into the house was ‘a huge stretch made with the assumption that things would continue to go up,’ Lemble says. ‘The real estate broker reassured me at the time I’d be able to refinance and get a lower rate,’ Lemble says.”

“When her boyfriend walked, Lemble knew she was in trouble. She could handle $1,300 a month, but $2,600 was a crushing blow. There were no takers when she put the house on the market in February for $419,000. By summer she dropped the price to $405,000.”

“‘People weren’t looking and the banks weren’t open to a short sale,’ she says. ‘Other people with more equity were able to drop their prices more and I hit the zero equity line really quickly. There was a great sense of despair and it just slid into foreclosure.’”

“Trevor Read is nearly half Lemble’s age and hadn’t previously owned a house, but he knew how easy it was to qualify for ownership. After all, he was a real estate salesman.”

“When he bought a fixer-upper on Janes Road in southwest Medford for $245,000 last year, the 22-year-old thought he had a bargain for his young family. ‘I thought it was a great deal and we put a lot of money into it,’ he says.”

“Read and his wife intended to refinance the $208,970 adjustable-rate mortgage after six months. But the sub-prime lending train wreck quickly derailed his plan. ‘Lenders were going bankrupt and guidelines were changing,’ he says. ‘In January, my 8.5 percent rate went up to 10 or 11 percent.’”

“Monthly payments went from $1,990 to $2,300. The Reads tried to sell the house for $265,000, but there was no response. They lowered the price to $245,000 but couldn’t sell and the property was scheduled for auction at the Jackson County Courthouse this month.”

“‘I’ve learned that you don’t get into a home that you think you can flip or refinance later without having the surety that you can support it,’ says Read. ‘I knew the market was totally squashed and I just had to pack it in.’”

The Oregonian. “Roger Pollock said he wanted to sell a lot of homes at his two-day auction this weekend — and he did just that. Pollock said he sold 141 homes for a total of $65 million at the Oregon Convention Center. Pollock’s Buena Vista Custom Homes had advertised more than 240 homes to sell at auction.”

“Westside homes in Beaverton and Hillsboro sold best, Pollock said. None of the 29 Bend homes sold, and homes that are now rented didn’t sell well, either.”

“Pollock said about 96 percent of the homes he sold went for below the reserve price. The reserve price, he said, was equal to his costs.”

“‘We didn’t make any money on these homes,’ Pollock said. ‘We lost money.’”

The Heraldnet from Washington. “The start of condominium construction on the Everett waterfront will be delayed by at least six to nine months after a major financial backer dropped out because of the nation’s mortgage mess, developer Maritime Trust said.”

“‘They just flat out got out of the construction market and are selling the unit that was going to do our construction loan,’ Maritime’s Bert Mears said Monday. He was referring to Merrill Lynch.”

“‘We’re talking to a couple of other people,’ Mears said. ‘I don’t think anyone wants to push the button until we get some of this (problems in the nation’s housing market) off the front page.’”

“‘It’s extremely important that this project happen,’ said Port commissioner Connie Niva. ‘It’s the beginning of a lot for Everett. It signals that private investment can be successful in Everett. If it looks like we can’t get a quality development done in Everett, that’s a problem.’”

“Mears said he expects the financing problems will mean his company will make less money and may also need to add another private partner. But he said 40 percent of the first 137 units have already been sold. Prices still remain between $400,000 and $1 million for the condos.”

The Tri-City Herald from Washington. “Washington state appears likely to avoid major impacts from the subprime mortgage crunch, but officials still are taking steps to protect homeowners who might face foreclosure. Just over 24 percent of loans in the state in 2006 were high-rate, according to The Wall Street Journal.”

“Benton and Franklin counties are seeing some corrections, but nothing that worries industry officials. Notice of trustee sales are up about 11 percent through November this year, with 739 reported so far compared with 665 at the same time last year.” “Of the 738 notices of trustee sales in 2006, about half actually foreclosed, said Greg Bowers, manager of Benton-Franklin Title Co.”

“The crash seen in areas such as Florida and Nevada followed a period of surging home prices, which never happened in the Tri-Cities, officials said. ‘If it didn’t go up, why should it go down?’ said Dave Retter, broker in Kennewick.”

“‘In the big scope of things, it’s not that big of a deal,’ said Dana Mundy, owner of AmeriChoice Home Loans in Richland. Her company did a few subprime loans, she said, but they’re not a big part of her business. ‘To me, this correction is absolutely necessary,’ she said, because it helps strengthen the field of professionals and eligible home buyers.”

“Eliminating subprime loans cut about 15 percent of potential buyers out of the market, she said. ‘Now we need to educate them.’”

The Vancouver Sun from Canada. “A significant November rebound in Metro Vancouver housing re-sales helped push overall activity above 2006 levels, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported.”

“The association registered 2,952 sales through the MLS, a 22 per cent increase from the same month a year ago. The average unit price topped $577,000 in November, up 11.2 per cent from the same month a year ago.”

“The factors pushing up Vancouver are less clear, according to Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets. Nationally, however, ‘I would say it is surprising, given all the gloomy headlines we’ve been inundated with about bad news from the U.S. housing market and the U.S. economy in general.’”

“Porter added that sales that are growing faster than new listings being added to market inventories suggest that markets are not becoming unbalanced.”

“However, Porter said Alberta’s formerly ’scorching hot’ markets of Edmonton and Calgary have retreated steeply from 2006 sales figures, and new listings in both cities are headed toward double-digit increases.”

“‘That’s not a friendly combo for prices looking ahead,’ Porter wrote.”

The Calgary Sun from Canada. “Although Calgary’s average house price continues to outstrip the national average, the local market has steadied. It is anticipated that buying a new home will be less competitive next year, said Ted Zaharko, owner of Royal LePage Foothills Real Estate Services.”

“‘Many Calgarians are going to have to change the way they think of our market,’ he said. ‘While it is still strong, sellers cannot expect the same buyer response they saw this time last year.’”

“For Sean Biesbroek, who, in 2008, plans to buy his first home, the forecast for a more stable market comes as good news. ‘Price is the biggest factor for sure, but location is right up there, too,’ said Biesbroek, who is currently renting a home in the northwest community of Edgemont with his girlfriend.”

“Despite the prices stabilizing, Biesbroek said he won’t wait too long to make a purchase. ‘I’d be hesitant to wait too long.’”

The Edmonton Journal from Canada. “Edmonton home prices will recover in the first half of 2008 from their late-2007 slide, says the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, released Monday. Broker Ken Shearer predicts that the current oversupply of listed homes will start to tighten in February as more properties are sold and others are pulled off the market.”

“The second quarter of 2008 with more balanced supply and demand plus a predictable seasonal surge should bring most of the year’s price rise, Shearer says.” Edmonton’s one-per-cent price increase from 2007 to 2008 is expected to be the lowest among major Canadian cities. From 2006 to 2007, Edmonton led the country with a 34.5-per-cent average home price increase.”

The Leader Post from Canada. “Regina’s housing market is set to lead the country as the average price of housing is expected to rise by 15.4 per cent in 2008, according to the Royal LePage survey.”

“Mike Duggleby of Royal LePage Regina Realty said it all comes down to supply and demand. ‘There is limited supply and high demand,’ said Duggleby. ‘Resale (inventory) of homes is low, but there is a lot of demand here. Stories of in-migration are true. There are lots of jobs here and people are coming to avoid the high cost of living elsewhere.’”

“According to the survey, first-time buyers are expected to be the most active purchaser group, with many expected to take advantage of the expanding and affordable condo market, which currently makes up for 20 per cent of the Regina real estate market.”

“For the average buyer, Duggleby said he expects a similar trend to last spring when demand increased and houses sold after being on the market for only a short time. ‘Pull the trigger fast, because (the houses) won’t last long,’ advises Duggleby.”

The Globe & Mail from Canada. “Home sales in St. John’s surged 68 per cent from October to November, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show. St. John’s is the latest in a string of Canadian cities including Calgary and Saskatoon to experience big surges in housing sales activity, often on the backs of their booming commodities markets.”

“In fact, Canada seems to have ‘barely blinked’ in the face of the global tightening in the credit markets, along with the real estate woes south of the border, said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.”

“‘At least one Canadian economic train fully decoupled from the U.S. this year – the housing market,’ Mr. Porter said in a report yesterday.”

“‘The entire eastern section of this market is selling hand over fist. I will tell you unequivocally, without one hesitation, that Danny Williams and the oil announcement are what is driving this market,’ said Denise Brophy of Re/Max Realty Specialists in St. John’s. ‘I haven’t seen anything like this before.’”

“A total of 559 resale homes were sold in Newfoundland and Labrador in November, a 72-per-cent increase from the same month last year. Any ‘decent’ home is now subject to a bidding war, and even run-down properties are selling quickly, Ms. Brophy said. New homes are selling as soon as the foundations are laid, she added.”

“Real estate lawyer Bruce Chislett’s three-partner law firm recently purchased the two-storey former town council building in the St. John’s suburb of Paradise, a town in which there are lots of real estate deals taking place.”

“‘We believed it was a good place to win business, and a good time to stop renting and purchase something due to our long-term view of where property values are headed,’ he said.”

“It’s important to keep in mind big jumps in price or activity often take place in smaller cities, said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.”

“‘In smaller markets like Saskatoon, Regina and St. John’s, it’s much easier to have these huge spikes due to their smaller base,’ Mr. Soper said. ‘Nonetheless this is a dramatic increase that is both culturally important and economically unique.’”