December 22, 2007

The Gold Mine Came To An End

The Review Journal reports from Nevada. “Local housing indicators in November continued to soften, two Las Vegas research firms said this week. Closings and median prices in the new- and existing-home categories fell from a year earlier, data from SalesTraq and Home Builders Research showed. The market’s median new-home price plummeted following massive cost cuts in October and November, as builders looked to move inventory. And sustained high supply on the resale side suppressed median prices there.”

“The pain hit the affordable condominium-conversion market especially hard. The segment, which carries median prices well below $200,000, moved just 67 homes in November, down from more than 1,000 sales at the conversion market’s peak in December 2005, said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research.”

“Builders pulled just 343 permits, the lowest total ‘in this century,’ said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq.”

“‘This market is really, really bad,’ said Realtor Mike Altishin. ‘Quite frankly, I’m not interested in taking a listing at this point unless someone is extremely motivated to sell.’”

“Altishin has a home for sale below $200,000, and it’s fallen out of escrow three times. He’s also sold his own investment properties; one, appraised at $210,000, just sold for $165,000. And Altishin had to cover the closing costs to boot.”

“‘I saw a commercial on TV with some people who had purchased a home at an auction, and they were excited that they had purchased this $250,000 house for $20,000 below value,’ Altishin said. ‘When I heard that, I said, ‘That was about $25,000 too much.’”

“‘It’s a horrible market, but it’s a horrible market that’s going to get better,’ Smith said. ‘We are very close to the bottom. Unfortunately, the turnaround is not going to happen overnight.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “More midrise condo projects in Las Vegas have been postponed as part of the continuing shakeout of the housing industry. The number of condo units suspended jumped 21 percent in the third quarter from 3,877 to 4,688, according to Applied Analysis.”

“With financing harder to come by for developers, there were more than 20,000 units suspended or canceled through the end of the third quarter. The prices of new homes and existing homes have fallen, giving local buyers some incredible bargains that hadn’t been available and further competition for the condo market that is also a lifestyle choice.”

“‘There is a lot of competition in the marketplace, and it is difficult for buyers to be willing to pay the premium for a project when there are 27,000 resale units on the market today,’ Applied Analysis Principal Brian Gordon said.”

“In its latest statistics tracking the third quarter, Applied Analysis reported there were 13,033 condo units under construction, led by MGM Mirage’s CityCenter. There are 7,219 existing condo units, up from 5,849 at the end of the second quarter.”

“The closing price of units sold in the third quarter averaged $694,600 or $539 per square foot. At the end of the third quarter, there were 854 luxury condos on the market, up 19 percent from the second quarter. The units had an average asking price of $830,800 or $624 per square foot.”

The Nevada Appeal. “Nevada’s unemployment rate continued to rise in November despite seasonal hiring in the retail sector.”

“Bill Anderson, economist for the Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, said the primary culprit was the construction industry, which was down another 2,500 jobs from October. He said because of the collapse of the housing market, construction has lost some 7,300 jobs in the past 12 months.”

“The Las Vegas area reported 5.3 percent out of work, up from 1.2 percent from a year ago.”

The Arizona Republic. “A slowdown in condominium sales in downtown Scottsdale has altered the plans for Hotel Valley Ho and its residential units. Two years after completing renovations for $80 million, the hotel is opening its tower suites for nightly rentals.”

“Valley Ho, built in 1956, reopened in December 2005 with plans for 37 condos, lofts and penthouses. Three penthouses have been sold, and another will be furnished as a model to entice more buyers.”

“Valley Ho has a handful of full-time residents, and part-time residents and investors, said Andrew Chippindall, Valley Ho general manager.” “Valley Ho’s top-floor units start at $1.6 million for 1,688 square feet, and two-bedroom condos are going for $700,000 and up for 1,350 square feet.”

“Sales of existing condos and townhouses in Scottsdale have fallen nearly 9 percent this year through November, compared with 2006. Median prices have been slumping as well, down 7 percent in November from the previous year. Building permits issued in Scottsdale for condos and apartments have fallen 18 percent this year, with less than two weeks left in 2007.”

“The slowdown persuaded Toll Brothers to hold off indefinitely on construction of its 62-unit Regency townhouse project, south of Valley Ho.”

“Toll Brothers is completing 85 condos on the same site at its six-story building called the Mark. Model units are scheduled to open early in 2008.”

“The two-day auction at the Mesa Convention Center could be the start of a trend. Not only are foreclosures climbing, but so is the number of homes going back to lenders. 2,000 people showed up to bid at, or at least to watch, an auction for more than 200 Valley homes on which lenders had foreclosed.”

“Before last year, most of the homes in default sold at trustee auctions on the steps of the Maricopa County courthouse. Now there are few bidders for those auctions because many of the houses are worth less than what is owed on them.”

“Values of the houses to go on the block ranged from $100,000 to $600,000. All had been taken back by big U.S. lenders. More than three-fourths of the properties sold for prices ranging from $75,000 to $465,000.”

“There weren’t a lot of bidding wars, and prices didn’t soar.”

“Prices started low. The opening bid on a relatively new three-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath house in Goodyear started at $80,000.”

“Unfortunately, there’s plenty of new inventory because 1,344 homes were foreclosed on in metropolitan Phoenix last month. Also, almost 3,500 homeowners who are behind on their mortgage payments got notices that their lender was about to start foreclosure proceedings.”

“Home builders big and small have been scaling back their development plans for the coming year and selling off untouched swaths of land - particularly in outlying areas - to cope with the struggling market. That has created opportunities for investors looking to buy land at a discount.”

“Real-estate experts say the sell-off trend is likely to continue next year as the housing market struggles through its correction.” “‘Our view is that the market is going to get worse before it gets better,’ said John Graham, president of Scottsdale-based developer Sunbelt Holdings.”

“Currently, much of the land offered for sale is in areas like Pinal County and Buckeye, or other far-flung regions.”

“Valley broker Bo Mills, who specializes in industrial properties, watched as land investors sold undeveloped properties zoned for industrial use in the West Valley to hungry home builders during the housing run-up a few years ago.”

“Portions of that land remain untouched and are back on the market, Mills said, but they aren’t being rezoned for industrial uses.”

“‘We’ve always been concerned with the lack of Class A and Class B industry employment centers,’ said Barry Broome, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. ‘The best real-estate sites should be used for employment sites. You’re in competition for employers; you’re not in competition with houses.’”

The Arizona Daily Star. “When the market got tough, real estate broker Dave Sunderman did what many industry experts advise: He hit the street.”

“Although he might have taken that idea too literally. Sunderman recently stood on the corner of East Tanque Verde and North Sabino Canyon roads with a sign saying ‘Will Sell You A Home For Food’ and offering to donate a portion of his commissions to the Community Food Bank.”

“‘I’m seeing a lot of agents going out and looking for second jobs,’ said Chip Rock, owner of Re/Max Majestic Realty. ‘The agents who know how to sell real estate are still selling real estate. The ones who came in during the boom, they don’t know how.’”

“Among those who may be phasing out is Rick Van Camp, of Red Horizon Realty. Van Camp previously worked in sales for a company that rebuilds circuit breakers, but left for full-time real estate work in 2004. Now he’s gone back to the electrical equipment firm and just does real estate part time.”

“‘My old broker used to say if you had a pen and a pulse, you could write a real estate contract, he said. Since then, it’s gotten much slower.’”

“The total volume of real estate sales — and pool of potential commissions — has fallen nearly 42 percent from October 2005 to October 2007, the most recent figures available, according to the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.”

“Rock said that, in the current environment, he expects the ranks of real estate agents in town to drop eventually by about a third. ‘The gold mine came to an end,’ he said.”

“Some agents are finding that the post-slowdown market takes more work, including more weekends holding open houses, and more self-promotion.”

“‘Three years ago, quite frankly, you could show up and probably you would have a piece of business drop in your lap,’ said Rosey Koberlein, CEO of The Long Cos., parent of Long Realty ‘That’s not the business climate now.’”

The Yuma Sun from Arizona. “Despite sluggish home sales, sharp decline in new construction and a doubled foreclosure rate, observers of the real estate market are sure there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for the industry.”

“They just can’t see it yet.”

“‘Actually, I don’t think Yuma has been hit as hard as other places,’ said Vicki Bardo, outgoing president of the Yuma Association of Realtors. ‘We had a better year than I thought we would have. Yuma really hasn’t had it as bad as other areas.’”

“That’s not to say the real estate market here hasn’t been hit hard, she said. ‘We’re sitting here with a lot of inventory. There’s no question it’s been devastating, especially when someone has to move and they can’t sell their house.’”

“She said 1,500 dwellings of all types were listed recently for sale by the Yuma association’s MLS. That doesn’t include homes the owners are trying to sell themselves or most of the new construction.”

“‘The market is bleeding and there is a lot of volatility in the mortgage market. Most of the exotic mortgages are gone. They no longer exist for people with poor credit or no down payment,’ said Brian Holiman, branch manager for Yuma Mortgage Group.”

“‘But I happen to believe this is a really good time to buy a house,’ Holiman continued. ‘Sellers are realizing they need to bring their price down and make other concessions.’”

“One thing he’s seeing, he said, is that people have become more realistic. ‘They’re buying what they can actually afford.’”

“Caught in the middle are the many people who overpaid for a house - often speculators - with the expectation of a quick turnaround and fat profit from the accelerating prices, Holiman said. ‘That’s come back to haunt them. I’m seeing at least one person a week who’s in trouble.’”

“Holiman speculated that by late 2008, those who would miss payments will have done so, ‘and everyone will start coming back to the table by late ‘08 or early ‘09.’”

“There will be a painful time before then. As of Nov. 30, there had been a total of 675 notices of trustee sales this year, according to records Yuma Stats had gathered from the Yuma County Recorder’s Office. That’s roughly double the number in 2005, when there were 389 trustee sales notices.”

“As of November, city of Yuma had issued 231 single-family dwelling permits, many of them for larger, custom-built homes, building official Randy Crist said. ‘It seems the smaller, tract homes are slowing.’”

“Crist noted the number of housing permits is substantially lower than previous years. For the same 11 months in 2006, 576 housing permits were issued and 969 in the same period in 2005.”

“What seems to be happening, he said, is that developers are positioning themselves for when the real estate market rebounds by continuing to work on subdivisions.”

“‘We still have plenty of work to do,’ Crist said. ‘A lot of subdivisions are continuing to be developed. When the boom comes back, there will be a lot of choices for lots.’”




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44 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-22 07:34:47

Sounds like a disaster in Yuma. This from Lake Havasu City, AZ:

‘Hotel revenue fell sharply in October as ballooning gas prices deterred many vacationers from traveling far from home, officials said. The latest financial snapshot of the local tourism industry, released Monday by the city’s Finance Department, showed that hotel revenue in October dropped by more than $300,000, or nearly 17 percent. It was the lowest total for October in six years.’

Comment by Blacque Jacques Shellacque
2007-12-22 17:07:05

Sounds like a disaster in Yuma.

Yuma? Aside from the military, who would go there and what for?

Comment by beebs
2007-12-22 18:29:51

Snowbirds hit Yuma pretty hard in the late fall and don’t leave until spring.

 
 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-12-22 07:48:38

“‘This market is really, really bad,’ said Realtor Mike Altishin. ‘Quite frankly, I’m not interested in taking a listing at this point unless someone is extremely motivated to sell.’”

I wonder if the pace at which agents are turning on sellers is accelerating. I have to believe that the agencies are becoming less and less interesting is listing properties that they can’t sell.

Comment by Tim
2007-12-22 09:07:20

Its a bitch to have to work for your money like the rest of us. Hope these losers saved.

Comment by Natalie
2007-12-22 09:19:53

I dont want to work. I just dont wanna, he exlaims as he stomps around in his underoos. Im a realtor for christ’s sake. I deserve at least 100k in salary. Get up at 10, show a few houses, have a nice lunch and day should be done. I didnt take those classes at community college for nothing.

Translation. That fryer at burger king really burns my hands. This market will come back. It’s just gotta. I can feel it. PLLLEEEAASSEEE!

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-22 09:33:07

Right. And making statements about ‘gold mines’ shows how they really feel about taking their customers money.

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Comment by 01/20/2009 end of an error
2007-12-22 10:21:12

Makes me wonder how many homes could be on the MLS but aren’t due to lack of interest to list them.

 
Comment by Tim
2007-12-22 10:41:23

I have heard that because of ppl resorting to renting, waiting for a better market, and/or the holiday season, inventory is ready to jump another 30% this Spring at least. Meanwhile, sales keep falling.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by A.B. Dada
2007-12-22 07:54:08

Can we stop using terms like “existing,” “pre-owned,” or in carspeak, “previously-driven” and start saying “used”?

The same with stocks, too. Buy at IPO, corporation gets the money. Buy used, some previous owner gets the money.

Used is used.

Comment by bicoastal
2007-12-22 18:32:00

OK, but there are always people who will prefer to buy a used Mercedes, Rolls Royce, Jaguar, or BMW to a brand-new Toyota or Mazda or Subaru. Many new houses are not of the same quality as much older houses and people do take that into account when deciding whether or not to buy them.

‘Can we stop using terms like “existing,” “pre-owned,” or in carspeak, “previously-driven” and start saying “used”?’

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-22 07:54:30

Crist almighty…

Another deluded one that believes in a 2nd coming.

“As of November, city of Yuma had issued 231 single-family dwelling permits, many of them for larger, custom-built homes, building official Randy Crist said. ‘It seems the smaller, tract homes are slowing.’”

“Crist noted the number of housing permits is substantially lower than previous years. For the same 11 months in 2006, 576 housing permits were issued and 969 in the same period in 2005.”

“What seems to be happening, he said, is that developers are positioning themselves for when the real estate market rebounds by continuing to work on subdivisions.”

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-12-22 07:58:27

bob komikazi is still gung ho on Lost Wages
how’s that apartment building going bob ?

 
Comment by takingbets
2007-12-22 08:00:28

“‘We still have plenty of work to do,’ Crist said. ‘A lot of subdivisions are continuing to be developed. When the boom comes back, there will be a lot of choices for lots.’”

what makes him think the “boom” is going to come back? it makes me wonder how many others have that same idiotic mindset? all i can say is keep dreaming !

Comment by FB wants a do over
2007-12-22 08:51:50

“‘It’s a horrible market, but it’s a horrible market that’s going to get better,’ Smith said. ‘We are very close to the bottom.

Comment by Potential Buyer
2007-12-22 09:28:18

See, they all believe that real estate always goes up. Which it does. But they forget to add ‘eventually’.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-22 08:01:34

“The Las Vegas area reported 5.3 percent out of work, up from 1.2 percent from a year ago.”

No viva, Pavlovegas

Comment by Little Al
2007-12-22 09:00:03

Die, lost Wages

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-22 08:04:07

Future Sign Flipper, it’s a mortal lock

“Although he might have taken that idea too literally. Sunderman recently stood on the corner of East Tanque Verde and North Sabino Canyon roads with a sign saying ‘Will Sell You A Home For Food’ and offering to donate a portion of his commissions to the Community Food Bank.”

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-12-22 08:10:49

1,500 house for sale in Yuma?

yikes!

“She said 1,500 dwellings of all types were listed recently for sale by the Yuma association’s MLS. That doesn’t include homes the owners are trying to sell themselves or most of the new construction.”

 
Comment by Darrell_in_PHX
2007-12-22 08:21:28

“Unfortunately, there’s plenty of new inventory because 1,344 homes were foreclosed on in metropolitan Phoenix last month. Also, almost 3,500 homeowners who are behind on their mortgage payments got notices that their lender was about to start foreclosure proceedings.”

3,200 transactions. 3,500 NoD.

A few months ago, it was 2,000 NoDs a month. Those NoD are now generating 1,300 actualy foreclosures. Now we’re up to 3,500 NoDs a month. I think we’ll be seing at least 2,000 actual foreclosures a month by spring.

 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2007-12-22 08:25:47

Valley Ho broker Bo Mills. Go Bo.

Did anybody ever buy the “wings of the wind estate” in Sedona?
It was selling for 5 mill. It was the only home for miles in Oak Creek.

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-22 08:42:20

Half of the places in OC canyon are for sale.

Comment by Ouro Verde
2007-12-22 09:00:33

I love that area. I went to school there and scrambled all over those rocks and dry creek beds. Do you know that house Wings of the Wind?
Oh, hey Verde Valley= Ouro Verde

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-12-22 09:04:32

I didn’t know there was a school in OCC. Where exactly is this house.

BTW, we have another poster that lives in the Verde Valley. It is a little known fact that it is foreclosure alley. The papers just don’t report it.

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Comment by Little Al
2007-12-22 08:47:19

Sunderman recently stood on the corner of East Tanque Verde and North Sabino Canyon roads with a sign saying ‘Will Sell You A Home For Food’ and offering to donate a portion of his commissions to the Community Food Bank.”

No way. Reality starts to mirror our wildest conjectures of the collapse.

 
Comment by SoBay
2007-12-22 08:56:14

“One thing he’s seeing, he said, is that people have become more realistic. ‘They’re buying what they can actually afford.’”

- He is actually looking at the market returning to the ‘old school’ requirements of qualifying for a loan. This unique forgotten method required downpayment, employment history and good credit.

These people are not becoming ‘more realistic’ - they are simply trying to purchase at the self regulating matrix the market has employed for decades.

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2007-12-22 09:02:34

I just talked to an old friend in LV yesterday who has lived there 40 years now. Says yeah, it’s the foreclosure capital, lots of crime, but she’s a pit boss and says the casino is still ballz to the wall like nothing’s wrong, lalala.

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-12-22 09:38:24

I was at the Wynn a few months ago and I reported here it was mostly empty on the casino floor…

Comment by John
2007-12-22 10:51:40

I was at the Wynn during “one of the slowest weeks of the year”–just before Thanksgiving, and the place was hopping! There were gobs of foreign visitors. We left town on Thanksgiving before dawn and the freeway from LA was packed with traffic.

 
 
 
Comment by Tim
2007-12-22 09:05:45

“The pain hit the affordable condominium-conversion market especially hard. The segment, which carries median prices well below $200,000, moved just 67 homes in November, down from more than 1,000 sales at the conversion market’s peak in December 2005, said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research.”

Those condo-conversions really upset me. Not only are they marketed to the uneducated that dont understand that apartments are designed to only last 25 years and are usually constructed very poorly and with little or no sound proofing. They take hot areas and turn them into future slums. In the old days, after 15 years, they would be torn down to make way for bigger and better uses. Now they will emerge as the new crime ridden kill zones with owners in upside down mortgages, and the land so tied up they cant be torn down until they are condemned. HOA fees will have to be increased to $600 per month plus to cover ever increasing maintenance issues. I just cant imagine why anyone would even consider buying something like that. I can understand the desire for a yard, and a single family home to raise kids even if prices are high. To buy a crappy apartment, however. I just dont get it. What a huge mistake.

 
Comment by NotInMontana
2007-12-22 09:27:29

It’s the big thing here in Missoula, and I think one thing driving it is parents of college students who are convinced it’s a real smart move to buy a condo for the “kid” while in school then sell after graduation. Can’t lose! I can tell because no sooner do the places open up than the little lanai-decks immediatey fill up with barbecues, the inevitable unused mountain bike and other junk.

 
Comment by Mike
2007-12-22 09:31:36

More fake numbers as the Fed’s Bahgdad Ben Bernanke and Bush administration’s virus, of manipulating the inflation and unemployment numbers and all the numbers inbetween, spreads. This time concerning unemployment numbers from Nevada. Bill Anderson, economist for the Department of Employment, said that Nevada has lost 7,300 jobs in the construction industry over the 12 month period. What a joke!

50% or more of the construction workers in the South West states were illegals! California was even worse than Nevada and Arizona at using illegal workers. Example: I knew 3 illegals during the boom. One worked at my local Mexican restaurant, one worked at my gym and the other one is the guy who comes once a week (to my RENTED property) to do the gardening. During the boom, the guy at the gym and the guy at the restaurant, BOTH quit to work construction. One as a roofer at $15 an hour as opposed to $7 an hour at the gym and other as something to do with carpentry.

The gardener still arrives every monday but he’s in his 60’s and it’s his own little gardening business. They were all nice guys and I wish them well but pleeeeze!, don’t keep giving these (incredibly) fake numbers about EVERYTHING to try and keep the economy hyped by telling lies to the sheeple.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-12-22 09:35:01

“Valley Ho”?

Don Imus, call your office.

Comment by SanFranciscoBayAreaGal
2007-12-22 14:29:55

For a moment Bill, I though you posted “Don Ho”

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-12-22 09:36:36

The segment, which carries median prices well below $200,000, moved just 67 homes in November, down from more than 1,000 sales at the conversion market’s peak in December 2005,

____________________________________________________

Repost (from bits bucket). Am I the only one shocked by this. This is huge. All those condos still under contruction and they cant sell any now.

I wonder how many of the 67 were foreclosures??

 
Comment by CD Man
2007-12-22 10:07:44

Dad is retired in Lake Havasu..He’s in great shape but told this 2 days ago. His friend won 100K in laughlin a week ago, he’s up 280k this year! Don’t aks me how. Drove back to Lake Havasu and bid 280K on a home listed for 425K. Realtor laughed and said it wouldnt happen. Hope was purchased for 300 something..20 hours later-bid accepted. Cash is king…The key was 100K cash he put in front of owner…merry xmas to all

 
Comment by Tim
2007-12-22 10:38:13

Get this. Last year flipper pays 875k for great house architecturally but which was outdated. He put in 100k of remodeling and listed it for 1.35 mill three months ago. It showed up on the mls for an increased price of 1.4 yesterday. I spoke to the realtor about it. Realtor said that the Seller wanted to recoup his carrying costs during the slow holiday season and things should pick up when it after the holidays, also Seller lost some money on another property and wanted to be made whole.

I was pretty much speechless.

Comment by sfbayqt
2007-12-22 15:26:07

So, here we go again. We have not one but TWO idiots working together. The seller has no sense of how the market works and the realtor has the nerve to go along with the seller’s plan, even though they KNOW that it’s stupid. The market does not OWE this idiot his lost carrying costs, nor does it owe him the money lost on ANOTHER property. And I’ll bet that this seller thinks he is financially savvy,too.

“…be made whole”???? Please tell me he was joking.

BayQT~

 
Comment by bicoastal
2007-12-22 18:37:31

Where is this architecturally great house?

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-12-22 12:09:52

“A slowdown in condominium sales in downtown Scottsdale has altered the plans for Hotel Valley Ho and its residential units. Two years after completing renovations for $80 million, the hotel is opening its tower suites for nightly rentals.”

Looks like hotel Ho just turned into Hotel Skank.

Comment by Paul in Jax
2007-12-22 15:04:15

Are you saying Mo no go Ho?

Comment by Mo Money
2007-12-22 17:21:48

Mo can’t afford Ho !

 
 
 
Comment by Concerned about societal decline
2007-12-23 10:44:05

What is driving the housing bust ? A decline in disposable incomes. Lower wages. Higher costs. Less money to repay loans. Then the loans have to get repaid first, because the consumer credit wall is being reached by increasing numbers of consumers. Less spending, less economic activity, and eventually a recession.

But the root cause of the entire problem is not that silly fool Greenspan.In fact it is much simpler. . Gender studies, Art Appreciation, Film appreciation, Sports Medicine, Advertising Psychology, etc. are marginal subjects - as things stand the kids in Shanghai and Mumbai are getting stuck into Engineering, Medecine, Economics, the Sciences- the real hard world subjects. Brad and Megan are arguing about the context of Virginia Wolf, and whether or not she was sexually liberated. This really is of marginal importance, and really is applying the microscope to something that happened in the wrong century. When Brad has finished college he cannot do anything useful, therefore he becomes an Estate Agent, because just about any idiot can try being an Estate Agent. Useful jobs are going to Asia. And Megan keeps practicing her singing so that she can appear on Pop Idol, though in the meantime to hold down that credit card debt, she works in Walmart/McJobs etc… Problem is that statistically this is a long shot…many others are already doing the same thing…

 
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