March 31, 2006

A Woodstock For The ‘Equity Generation’

Carol Lloyd got an odd feeling at the recent real estate expo. “It is ecstasy. It is apoplexy. It is beyond believing and yet painfully familiar. It’s an aging real estate mogul who has found a second career as a trash-talking, self-help guru. Welcome to Woodstock for the equity generation, headlined by none other than our own national real estate idol, Donald Trump.”

“The Expos have gathered ever larger audiences, but San Francisco’s first Expo, which took place last weekend at the Moscone Center, was the best attended yet. The theme song for Donald’s keynote speech more or less sums up the Expo’s raison d’etre: ‘Money-money-money-money.’ The marketing billboards plastered with Donald’s smug mug up the ante with specific numbers: ‘One weekend can make you a millionaire.’”

“But as I wandered the halls, visiting workshops on tax evasion (er, I mean, avoidance) and the wonders of pre-foreclosure fortunes and flipping luxury homes to Florida condos (some are still available, get them while hot (not!)), one question kept nagging at me: Why now?”

“Real estate has always been a national obsession. In the six years since the Nasdaq imploded, it’s been floating the American economy. But why now in a moment when even the most maniacally optimistic of real estate agents is admitting that the market may be showing signs of decline? Why would over 61,000 people in one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world spend good money to learn about real estate investing?”

“The Learning Annex (press release) offered one possible explanation: ‘Real Estate in San Francisco is now the drug of choice.’ This metaphor, of course, suggests that it’s a dependence that has grown to be as unhealthful as it is irresistible. Perhaps we’re just hooked: We can’t stop ourselves from indulging even when we see signs that the party is over.”

“And perhaps the very success of the Expo is an ominous sign of the bubble popping, rather than a sign that the real estate boom is continuing.”

“As the saying goes, When your taxi driver starts giving you stock tips, you know it’s time to sell. Well, isn’t a convention of this sort simply a collection of all the stragglers to the real estate boom? When dancers have ‘fun’ inscribed over their gyrating bosoms, isn’t that a sign that the boom has reached its irrational peak?”

“As I sat in the front row and listened to Trump, who is paid $1.5 million for his talks, I couldn’t help but feel this frenetic carnival of high-flown cash-flow churn uncomfortably in my gut. Trump is nothing if not an expression of our ids. As he regaled the audience with his own shameless candor, ‘When I walked out here tonight I said to myself, it doesn’t f–ing matter!’ And as he dispensed hard-bitten business pointers (Be paranoid, get even and always, always get a prenuptial agreement). I felt the audience’s visceral appreciation of his willingness to articulate what they wanted to say but didn’t dare.”

“Perhaps it was the perfect embodiment of this cultural moment. The masses had gathered and together they were learning to look out for No. 1.”




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90 Comments »

Comment by marinite
2006-03-31 09:46:21

Sick

Comment by CanuckinTX
2006-03-31 10:49:06

I guess since so many idiots showed up to this we can see why inventory is climbing in most bubble spots but prices have yet to really fall. There must be more fools than I thought that see a few grand off of a listing as the perfect flipping opportunity. They’re surely sick in the head.

 
 
Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2006-03-31 09:49:22

This is interesting. A new “spin” on condo’s like Trumps. This guy might want to be a bit worried about his Vegas units! One guy in the article refers to the “Big Bet”. That’s for sure. I think we should call these folks “Hippers” or “HFB’bers”.

http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/suites_1.html

Comment by arizonadude
2006-03-31 10:46:34

These seminars are just recruiting more suckers to buy. The only ones making any money are the promoters. If things were so great they would be out there grabbing the money.

Comment by L
2006-03-31 11:00:35

That yahoo link you had up, most real estate industry insiders warn that the condo market is very risky…
Now we throw in variations to the condo market-

First the condo-conversion
These are great, they are not selling here in Orlando and the units that were bought are being rented out by the owners, the problem is they are willing to put anyone in them… One condo conversion unit in Metrowest was rented out and the tenents turned it into a meth lab. It was just busted this week. Great timing since the developer doing the conversion just started a radio ad to start moving units.

now the condo hotel…
They have them here in Orlando, a lot of them turned out to be complete duds, developers were turning seedy motels on 441 & 192 into condo units hoping to sell freshly painted and newley carpeted relics from 1979 to unsuspecting Europeans here on holiday. Some of these things started selling over a year and a half ago.

Personally if I were vacationing, i would opt for a hotel rather than renting a condo-hotel from an investor.

Comment by OrlandoRenter
2006-03-31 11:29:02

The condo conversions are staggering in number and staggering in unpleasentness. People underestimate just how overpriced these are also. Sure some are relatively cheap compared to other bubble spots and sure they aren’t as bad some really run down areas in Buffalo or New York, but the combination of low income and high price are unmatched across the country. Orlando’s economy depends on vacationers and tourism.

Condo conversions in Central Florida will not sell at the current prices. They need at least a 50% reduction to come in line with rents. The ONLY people who are buying these are people who do not have to live in them. Anyone who would want to reside in them (i.e. accept the appalling living conditions) can not afford to. These people (myself included) will rent.

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Comment by L
2006-03-31 11:42:27

Right on,
I just went to one yesterday for kicks off Lee Vista near Carmax.
I went in to check out prices, 159K for a one bedroom but 207K for a 2/2 & 249K for a 3/2… I told the girl “thats not a good deal, I can get a new townhome ready to move in from DR Horton for 208K” Her responce was “well DR does not build a quality home like these, plus we are offering 1 year off HOA fees & 10,000 credit towards closing costs”.

The problem is developers who got involved in these condo conversions priced these units 6-12 months ahead of the market anticipating prices on homes to go up another 40-50%… Unfortunately for them prices have been flat for 9 months here in Orlando. The result, prices for condo conversions are equal to single family homes & townhomes of the same size. Yeah they are “affordable” if you are looking at a 160K one bedroom unit and comparing it to a 250K 3 bedroom house.

 
 
Comment by OptionedUnarmed
2006-03-31 12:15:37

Condos have become a terrible value nowadays because right now the sum of the parts is much greater than the whole.

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Comment by Penina
2006-03-31 14:08:39

The residents of these units were just notified last week that their apartments are going condo. The prices are beyond belief!!
It’s over $500/month for a one bedroom just in taxes and condo fees.

http://www.aventineresidences.com/

 
Comment by Penina
2006-03-31 14:12:50

PS
The current rent for a 1 bedroom here is $1070.00

 
 
 
Comment by Robin
2006-03-31 18:48:46

Seminars and condos for everyone!

 
 
 
Comment by John Law
2006-03-31 09:50:07

Trump is nothing if not an expression of our ids.

ha, no doubt.

Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 10:42:13

Not to mention our idiocy…

 
Comment by arizonadude
2006-03-31 11:19:09

How about a consumption tax for the trumps of the world?

 
 
Comment by John in VA
2006-03-31 09:58:04

Just rounding up the final batch of greater fools. Take their money and send them off to Oklahoma and Boise to get rich in real estate.

 
Comment by Sarah in DC
2006-03-31 09:58:04

Are you kidding me? Of course it’s a sign the boom is over. If it wasn’t, Unca Donna would still be trying to make his millions on real estate deals instead of off of public speaking and stupid TV tricks.

Comment by arizonadude
2006-03-31 11:21:12

Con artist is what you call them there speakers promoting real estate at the top.

 
Comment by SB BubbleBeliever
2006-03-31 13:20:57

‘When I walked out here tonight I said to myself, it doesn’t f–ing matter!’ (Quote by The Donald).

Sarah in DC-

I couldnt agree with you more. This quote above almost suggests that Mr. T is admitting defeat. I heard him say the EXACT same thing on Larry King Live a week or so ago.

I think the Donald knows his time is UP.

 
 
Comment by The Learning Man
2006-03-31 10:00:46

Its so sick seeing all these greedbags looking for a get rich quick scheme. And the greedbags hawking their tapes and books. Wait, I got to go throw up.

 
Comment by octal77
2006-03-31 10:04:21

‘Real Estate in is
now the drug of choice.’

Boy, that pretty well sums it up. If anyone ever needs an example
of how supposedly rational individuals can throw everything they
ever have learned out the window this is it. Unbelieveable!

Comment by octal77
2006-03-31 10:09:20

Correction to previous post.

‘Real Estate in (insert your town name here) is now the drug of choice.’

Comment by DC in LBV
2006-03-31 13:02:11

sounds like bumper sticker material…

“Real Estate: The New Drug of Choice”

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-31 10:09:49

Yeah, if somebody handed me a flyer with that on it I would run out the door. Ms. Lloyd seems kind of confused on this bubble thing; one week she is writing about the entitlements of Californian RE and then she is uneasy at realestata-palooza. Come on Carol, we’re rooting for ya!

 
Comment by shel
2006-03-31 11:52:20

that reminds me of a recent blurb i saw on…sorry, don’t have hbo, that lorraine someone …brasco?…from the Sopranos? She just got done in maybe BK court, dealing with her addiction. She admitted that openhouse listings were her porn. She would drool over it all, go to the OHs, and buy like she was buying new manolos for her closet. It was pretty amusing…
I agree that the rest of the nation is addicted too.

maybe that bumper sticker idea “friends don’t let friends buy houses” is indeed the most appropriate slogan of them all!
The fallout from all this might look like those boomers coming off meth…
it’s quite shudder-inducing..

Comment by shel
2006-03-31 12:03:44

ya know, I can’t tell from these stories if they’re saying she *still* recommends real-estate, it was just that while she was out of work pre-sopranos it was maybe not such a good idea to buy the stuff….yep, I think she like the Donald still likes RE, because she “doesn’t understand stocks” and because with RE “she’s the boss”.
http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2006-01-02-bracco_x.htm?POE=LIFISVA
sorry for the mis-info, I think she must still be on the RE pipe?
cheers!

 
Comment by jim A
2006-03-31 12:13:17

re: bumpersticker ideas. My suggestion is still “Lose money now, ask me how.” with the realtor(tm) symbol next to it.

 
 
Comment by leewhee
2006-03-31 14:40:58

When you first take drugs, you get high. So there’s a payoff. The longer you take drugs, the more you need to get high. Ultimately, you don’t even feel the high anymore but you still want/need the drug. Ask any heroin or coke freak.

That’s where we are in RE right now. These sad folks at this RE funorama are past the point where their addiction to RE will deliver any benefit (or high). They are on the downhill side of addiction.

Good luck to one and all.

 
 
Comment by climber
2006-03-31 10:08:13

The only one making a million over the weekend was Trump.

It’s not like it was a gathering of the best & brightest…more like a cult or a gang meeting.

How do you make a guy like Trump a millionaire? Give him a $billion and a year.

I wouldn’t take marriage advise from the guy either.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-03-31 10:49:41

Oh that’s rich. I would add that the Donald has been in more bankruptcy courtrooms than Elizabeth Taylor has wedding chapels.

 
Comment by arizonadude
2006-03-31 11:23:06

He needs a complete makeover too. Is there a swan for dudes?

 
 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-03-31 10:08:33

I hope they all lose their azzes!! Knuckleheads!

 
Comment by LA notary
2006-03-31 10:08:43

I’m shocked there are that many greater fools left. Last year my hubby and I went to the Democratic state convention. There was a Learning Annex real estate seminar going on at the convention center as well. You should have seen these people. Not the brighest batch. I really felt sorry for them. It was really sad.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-31 10:10:56

A few dull pennies, sure, but 61,000?

Comment by also renting in ma
2006-03-31 10:23:32

I’m with you. Wasn’t HL Mencken who said you could never go wrong understimating the intelligence of the American people. I might have that wrong, but there sure are a lot out there. While tech stocks mostly cost relatively affluent investors, the housing speculators seemed to be tilted towards more run of the mill folks. Maybe because it’s more tangible or easier to understand. Will be interesting to see who this falls on. Already some indication that ARM adjustment will hit low income the hardest.

Comment by octal77
2006-03-31 10:42:23

While tech stocks mostly cost relatively affluent investors, the housing speculators seemed to be tilted towards more run of the mill folks.

And the most financially / math challenged. During the
.COM mania I believe it safe to assume that investors
at least understood the concept of percent, interest,
net profit, etc.

Now during the .REAL_ESTATE mania its much the
opposite. Many an article has been written about
buyers who only comprehend a monthly payment.

No wonder dishonest money lenders are having a field day!

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Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-03-31 10:42:50

Why do you think the gap between the “haves” and the “have-nots” is widening? We could be about to witness the death of our middle class, the backbone of any health society.

Comment by feepness
2006-03-31 11:19:58

The middle class in America was a historical aberration built on the back of dollar hegemony after WWII left us the only industrialized nation on the planet.

Money, unlike water, flows upwards.

Comment by also renting in ma
2006-03-31 11:59:40

The same era that produced the non-working mother for a family of six. Another little hidden secret of this era is the role of sexism- the excellent education system was a byproduct of teachers who were shut out of most jobs, likewise with the medical care and nurses. Once these industries had to compete, costs rocketed and quality went down.

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Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 12:02:39

Feepness –

Great point. To that, I would add that the US was the only major industrial power whose manufacturing base was not severely damaged or destroyed in WWII. This tended to give us a slight edge in the export market, helping to explain the dollar hegemony you mentioned.

GS

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Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 10:44:00

As long as the suicide financing is available, fools will continue buying real estate.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-03-31 11:37:49

Your right Getstucco , it will keep going until that easy money ends.The tight money market is coming up real soon. Actually a tight money market protects the buyer more

Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 11:59:06

It also helps the government achieve their affordable housing objective. Unfortunately it does so at the expense of many of the low-income buyers at whom these programs are targeted, and who will have to give up the keys to the unaffordable house they were tempted to purchase at mania prices thanks to government-approved suicide loans (e.g., no-down-payment requirement).

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2006-03-31 12:47:28

Who said everyone could own a house . The United States have a high ownership rate .

 
Comment by Robin
2006-03-31 18:47:36

With homeownership at, I believe, a record 70%, any predictions of what the percentage will be in the beginning of 2008?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by L
2006-03-31 10:10:37

“Why would over 61,000 people in one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world spend good money to learn about real estate investing?”

Simple. They like what they are hearing, they are not listening to the hows or the why’s behind it, most of these “gurus” simply talk to them about the vasts wealth they built on RE.
These real estate gurus don’t make there money on real estate, they make there money off of selling a dream, 61,000 people paying thousands for work shops & seminars is a lot of money. Not to mention all the money made on the books, cd’s & dvd’s these guys peddle on late night infomercials.

Comment by octal77
2006-03-31 10:15:21

…they make there money off of selling a dream…

Indeed. Another example of a charlatan in action is
“Rich Dad Kiyosaki” series on PBS (of all places).

I used to contribute to PBS. I don’t anymore.

 
Comment by John in VA
2006-03-31 11:15:28

True. It’s been said that during the California gold rush, the only guys that made money were the ones that sold supplies to the prospectors. Same thing here — most of the ones that get rich in a RE mania are the ones selling books and seminars, and brokering mortgages.

 
 
Comment by lainvestorgirl
2006-03-31 10:11:31

Wasn’t Kiyosaki supposed to speak at this event? Wonder what he had to say about RE.

 
Comment by cabinbound
2006-03-31 10:11:58

“The Learning Annex (press release) offered one possible explanation: ‘Real Estate in San Francisco is now the drug of choice.’ This metaphor, of course, suggests that it’s a dependence that has grown to be as unhealthful as it is irresistible. Perhaps we’re just hooked: We can’t stop ourselves from indulging even when we see signs that the party is over.”“The Learning Annex (press release) offered one possible explanation: ‘Real Estate in San Francisco is now the drug of choice.’ This metaphor, of course, suggests that it’s a dependence that has grown to be as unhealthful as it is irresistible. Perhaps we’re just hooked: We can’t stop ourselves from indulging even when we see signs that the party is over.”

So true, Carol. They’re not complete dummies though — they’re not buying in July 2005 like you did. Say, did the HELOC you took out in August adjust for the fourth time yet?

 
Comment by L
2006-03-31 10:12:04

Its just like an Amway convention…
They go to listen to people tell them about how they did it & how they make all this money and are living the dream.

What they fail to tell you is they are actually making all there money off of tapes and books not Amway.

 
Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2006-03-31 10:12:58

This is another good example of the purveyors of this crap trying to make their last dime off this crap. I got a laugh off of this it’s so bad. Like this guy isn’t trying to sell to “Mom & Pop” just like he says he wants his “people’ to do.

Maybe Lindal was at the SF expo also….

From and email I just recieved that read….

Hi xxxxxxxx,

Do you play tennis? Even if you don’t, you’ve probably heard of the “sweet spot”. It’s the small area on a tennis racquet that gives you maximum force with the least effort.

Did you know there’s a “sweet spot” in real estate, too? If you’re too far ahead of trends, you’ll make no money (the doctor who invented air conditioning died penniless). We all know if you’re too late, you only get the high-priced leftovers.

Right now, there’s a Sweet Spot in condo conversions. The number of apartments being converted is up SHARPLY. But compared to the number of conversions that will happen in the next few years, well, we’re just at Chapter One of this story. We’re at the point where the concept is solid and proven, but most of the money has yet to be made.

I want to give you a briefing on condo conversions next Tuesday, April 4 at 8pm EASTERN.

You’re not seeing these types of deals on the late-night real estate guru infomercials. That’s a GOOD thing, because by the time you do, there’ll be only high-priced leftovers.

The difference is those gurus want to get the mass audiences that have seen enough of something in the newspapers that they’re now comfortable investing.

I only deal with a small group of students. My mission is to get the word to my students about real estate trends well BEFORE Mom and Pop are buying from the 3am TV show. I want you guys to be SELLING to Mom and Pop.

But you need to be on the call to hear the details of why condos are on the vine, and about to get ripe. The call is free, if you can get a spot on it. Just go here to reserve your place:

****removed to safe the stupid****

Mark your calendar for Tuesday April 4 at 8pm EASTERN. I look forward to sharing with you the details of how you and I are going to “clean up” from this next important trend.

Dave Lindahl

Comment by feepness
2006-03-31 11:02:37

****removed to safe the stupid****

Tell me the address!! Tell me the address!!!!

I want the sweet spot!!! I DESERVE the SWEET SPOT!!!

Why won’t you tell me the ADDRESS!!!!!??

You just want it for yourself! You’re trying to keep me away!!!

TELL ME!!!!

Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2006-03-31 11:46:02

Feep. I know you are joking, but here it is anyway. Will probably be good for some additional laughs….

http://www.real-estate-fortune.com/teleseminar

lbinvestor

 
 
Comment by Rich
2006-03-31 18:27:10

OMG, I am heading to Herbs surplus store for ammo, k rations and barbed wire.

 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2006-03-31 10:24:04

It’s all about money without working, at someone else’s expense. Like early retirement, or slavery or gambling and the lottery. There is a certain type of person who will always be drawn to something like this.

Comment by nhz
2006-03-31 10:34:09

it’s all about working with other people’s money.

and because of that you could say that many of those who are attending such a circus are not stupid at all. Most of them probably don’t have much to loose if they play the RE game and fail, while the potential reward is huge.

As long as most of the risk and cost of failure is shifted to those who are not playing the game (I still don’t see any sign of risks being priced into the RE market) this is a pretty good bet.

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-03-31 10:29:10

Want good real estate advice…

Go talk to your local honest and ethical appraiser…if you can find one. They are like the Marines..there’s only a few good ones left out there.

But he’ll set you straight… What neighborhood to buy, value for the money, market trends, who’s foreclosing on what…He’s got nothing to sell but his knowledge. Might charge ya $125 an hour. Best money you’ll ever spend.

Trump, LO’s, RE agents-All got an ax to grind and want your a$$ anyway they can get it.

Fools and their money are soon parted.

Comment by Ted
2006-03-31 10:33:51

Better yet see if you can find an appraiser over 40 who hasn’t sold his/her home and is now renting!

 
Comment by moqui
2006-03-31 11:18:10

When it comes time to jump back into this, (short sale or bank owned) I’ve seriously contemplated using an appraiser as a buyer’s representative. A good appraiser can enlighten the bank on the true value of their unseen property. I think it would be worth the money to have a professional familiar with the area tell the bank what an albatross they have on their books….kinda like number hitting in reverse.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-03-31 11:39:16

Save your money. The only thing a bank wants to here is market value. And if the last turn down was any indication they don’t hold appraisers in real high regards. Most of them blame appraisers for getting them in the mess that they are in. Especially when they have the feds breathing down their back telling them to unload or shutter your door.

Comment by john doe
2006-03-31 12:11:32

I have to agree with you. It will be the feds that are telling them to get the piece off of their books; if you’re even dealing with a bank at all.
More likely, you’ll be dealing with a managemetn company that is just taking care of the MBS’s crap. Banks don’t hold as much paper as they used to and the risk is transferred to MBS holders. When the pension funds start screaming ‘Uncle’, it will be that rates will rise very quickly. I’m not confident to speak about how that will affect the velocity of sales of depressed properties.
My guess is that there will still be enough Carlton Sheets or Kiyosaki wannabees that will hold them artificially high for a long time. This housing bear market might be very long and very painful because the risks have been transferred out of the banking community which is fairly well regulated into a completely unregulated financing pool of bonds buyers. If some of the GSE’s MBS’s that were previously A went to junk status, you will see a bloodbath. Banks only keep A++ paper to themselves and are not likely to default like the sub-prime is.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2006-03-31 13:01:34

If what your saying is true and I don’t doubt it for one second. Then “bloodbath” will be the biggest understatement of all time. It won’t be a long and drawn out process but it will be ugly very ugly. Those “management” companies taking care of the MBS’s crap if you haven’t seen them operate they are something to truly behold. Ex: During the last downturn had one operating out of Denver. They put out a portfolio of 17m worth of properties in California at the time California was selling about 30% below previous peak which made them worth just shy of 12m the notes securing that package were worth 10m they sold 100% ownership interest in the notes for 1.3m and were negotiable on that number.The entity that bought the package foreclosed on all the property and sold them for a combined 8m. The guys that are going to be operating in that playground will give shredder a whole new meaning. It will kill the local markets the velocity will be crazy they will have their marching orders and will slash value untill everyone is sold.

 
Comment by tj & the bear
2006-03-31 17:00:16

Banks don’t hold as much paper as they used to and the risk is transferred to MBS holders.

Yes and no. They may hold less mortgages directly, but they’re holding lots of MBS themselves. The nationwide average of bank RE exposure is something like 62% now.

 
Comment by David
2006-03-31 20:45:55

Kind of off topic, but you seem knowledgable. I was talking about the housing bubble at a family party and a distant relative asked concerned if a GNMA fund is a safe investment. I dont know, do you have any ideas?

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2006-03-31 15:37:40

Save your money. The only thing a bank wants to here is market value. And if the last turn down was any indication they don’t hold appraisers in real high regards. Most of them blame appraisers for getting them in the mess that they are in. Especially when they have the feds breathing down their back telling them to unload or shutter your door.

BS…

If buyer’s had demanded their own independant appraiser of their own instead of some hack doin’ the bidding of some crooked LO, millions wouldn’t be in the mess they are in.

The lenders aren’t gonna be gettin’ market value for any of their REO shite.

They’ll be gettin’ FORECLOSED-DISTRESSED SALE VALUE WITH THE COMPS SET BY THE BOTTOM FEEDERS.

The money-changers are the guilty ones in this fiasco. They lent the money and coerced their self appointed appraisers to seal the deal, by withholding future business.

The lending azzholes made their own bed.

And given the crap they’ve lent on, it’s gonna be one hellava race to the bottom.

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Comment by mrincomestream
2006-03-31 16:43:22

They’ll be gettin’ FORECLOSED-DISTRESSED SALE VALUE WITH THE COMPS SET BY THE BOTTOM FEEDERS.

Short version “market value”

Call it BS if you want the last downturn all I heard from bankers, R.E.O. managers, etc etc. Was that the appraisers were drug smokin hippies that screwed them. From the independant M.A.I. for the big stuff or hack doin’ the bidding of some crooked LO on the little stuff. All of them had files and files of appraisals that they would fax over on their properties and they would all say those are for informational purposes only don’t pay attention to them what is the real value.

Let me put it too you another way telling someone who’s job it is to liquidate property and make deals what your appraiser has to say when they have a hundred properties on the books with another hundred in the pipe with no end in site is a sure fire way not too get a deal. Because at that point he doesn’t give a damn what you or your appraiser has to say. You can take that too the bank.

 
Comment by va_investor
2006-03-31 19:41:59

I found no “deals” from bank reo depts. In fact, these guys often wanted over FMV. Any advice dealing with these guys mrincomestream?

 
 
 
 
Comment by hoz
2006-03-31 13:00:48

Title companies have the most up to date information. You have to get the info from an employee friend, as the companies do not release any info. The best info is from Fidelity or a Fidelity subsidiary (Chicago Title, Ticor Title).

 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 10:41:40

“And perhaps the very success of the Expo is an ominous sign of the bubble popping, rather than a sign that the real estate boom is continuing.”

BINGO!

 
Comment by OCMax
2006-03-31 10:45:26

Only a Californian could be convinced that Boise is the next boomtown. Not bashing Boise, but “the next big thing”? Why not Duluth or Tulsa?

Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 11:04:32

Fargo condos, anyone?

 
 
Comment by OCMax
2006-03-31 10:46:24

To quote a frequent poster who appears to be absent this morning:
“Boise condos for everyone!”

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-03-31 11:05:40

I believe every american should have at least 2 houses and 3 condos. After all, it’s our God-given right!

 
Comment by Betamax
2006-03-31 11:06:19

the builder stocks are interesting today…looks like someone is trying to bid them up for the weeks’ close, but they keep getting slammed back down again.

Comment by cabinbound
2006-03-31 11:34:40

Very low volume too compared to most days. Some are going a couple of minutes at a time without any trades at all. Nobody’s trying to be a hero on the last day of the quarter I guess.

Monday will be interesting. I wonder if Merrill will issue a cough-up-your-coffee hilariously bogus upgrade again like they did the first trading day of this year.

 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-03-31 11:06:45

“And as he dispensed hard-bitten business pointers (Be paranoid, get even and always, always get a prenuptial agreement). I felt the audience’s visceral appreciation of his willingness to articulate what they wanted to say but didn’t dare.”

The Donald is doing the world a big favor by sharing his insights on how to make a living and conduct your personal life with the philosophy “Screw everyone.”

 
Comment by Catherine
2006-03-31 11:08:05

I had a guy come in my office the other day…Don Knotts with a comb-over. He said he was a “real estate investor” and wanted me to run comps on about 35 properties..that he had to have them done by 5pm, so he could meet with his “mentor”. First off, I said no, then I asked how much he was paying his “mentor”…he got all huffy, and left, but I got a good look at the eagle embossed on his pleather vest!
So, when ya see these guys and dolls showing up, you KNOW it’s all over but the cryin’!

Comment by AZgolfer
2006-03-31 11:33:36

Catherine

Someone yesterday wanted to know how many houses are in the Phoenix area. Since Phoenix inventory is now over 40K on Zip Reality, they wanted to know what percentage of total houses that was. They thought I would know, but I thought of you since you are a realator. Do you know? How would I get this info?

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-03-31 11:49:31

Too friggin funny! LMFAO!! Probably some pissed off dentist looking to unload his problems on some sucker.

 
 
Comment by ocrenter
2006-03-31 11:17:48

Phoenix now stands at 40,192. Go to the comment section and leave your prediction for when we will hit 50,000.

 
Comment by santacruzsux
2006-03-31 11:37:33

I’m totally dating myself here, but doesn’t anyone remember how hated Donald Trump used to be 20 years ago? Good old Spy magazine, bless its departed pages, use to blast him as “the short fingered vulgarian”. Boy I wish I would have saved those mags. Its format completely changed magazine publishing for the rest of the century.

Oh yeah I almost forgot, die flipper die etc. etc.

 
Comment by death_spiral
2006-03-31 11:40:24

You jerks here better start drinking more Kool-Aid or else you won’t see the Big Picture. We’re leveling off, that is all. No problem in RE land. Just a fun little pause while we wait for the next updraft to lift our wings to even greater heights. So please stop dropping hints like the market will crash. You’re starting to spook the timid bagholders.

 
Comment by pt_barnum_bank
2006-03-31 12:01:53

Sadly, Real Estate is / was a no-lose scenario for someone without any assets.

You don’t need to put any money down, you don’t need to document your income, you don’t have to document that you have a job, you don’t even have to have a good credit score. Plus, they have made it so that you DON’T EVEN HAVE TO PAY PRINCIPAL!

So, a schlub off the street can go and purchase a $750k house, wait for a bigger sucker, and make money. The ONLY risk, and is it really a risk, especially when scum like Trump do it all the time, is that you may have to declare bankruptcy if *SOMEHOW* Real Estate were to go down in value. Even then, bankruptcy is not that bad for a working stiff. He will still be able to buy stuff on credit, just will have a higher interest rate.

Sad times. Only now after the horses have left the barn are the IDIOTS in our government proposing to tighten lending standards.

 
Comment by Ted
2006-03-31 12:46:16

Did Trump teach them how to inherit your Dad’s wealth after filing for bankrupcy. Always do it in that order. Sage advice!!

 
Comment by tom stone
2006-03-31 14:08:28

i got two free tickets to see the donald in the mail,so did every othericensed real estate person in the 9 county bay area,they had ( i recall $199)the ticket price printed on them,a “free” writeoff.i tried to give mine away,but no takers,my local banker told me they were sent free,unsolicited tickets as well….th mencken quote is “no one has ever gone broke underestimating the intelligence,or good taste of the american people” end quote

Comment by leewhee
2006-03-31 14:48:58

Good point. The last time Trump came thru the Bay Area, the show sold out without any need for media advertising. This time, they blanketed the airwaves (TV/radio) with 50% off discounts. The show may have attracted 61,000, but most were lured by the discounts or were realtors and other REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex) members.

In short, it was a pep rally to preach to the choir. Realtors encouraging realtors. And believe me, there are sh*tbags of realtors (and assorted RE hangers-on) in the Bay Area. The turnout wasn’t anything like the last one with lots of folks actually believing in the idea of making a bundle. This was an inside crowd trying to convince each other there is no bubble. And of course, hoping for a chance to see their “hero” Donald Dump.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2006-03-31 19:32:42

http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/H._L._Mencken

Here’s more Mencken quotes…this guy understood how greed and fear move the masses.

 
 
Comment by leewhee
2006-03-31 14:51:14

BTW, there are well over 100,000 Realtors in the Bay Area. And probably another 100,000 mortgage brokers/bankers/etc. So do the math. If all these folks got free tix to TrumpFest ‘06, I’d imagine 50% or 75% of the crowd was made up of industry types. They have a lot of time on their hands right now.

 
Comment by skipintro
2006-03-31 15:56:29

All I know is that I hope we see some significant price decreases here in Cali sometime soon. Consider that even if appreciation *slows* to 6 to 8% a year, that $400K house will still be worth about $500K three years from now.

 
Comment by Portland, Mainer
2006-03-31 18:35:21

The cover story of the April 10 BUSINESS WEEK is the HOUSING MARKET. See:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/06_15/B39790615housing.htm

There are a number of articles and places to COMMENT online.

I’m going to give them a piece of my mind. You have to believe there will be a lot of prospective buyers reading these comments!

This might be a great opportunity for one and all to comment as well!

 
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