Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For December 29, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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What’s the best way to track home sales (and homes for sale) in one’s area?
I know about Zillow and consider it somewhat reliable, especially in major metro areas, but are there county or state databases that have up-to-date and comprehensive figures?
Listen for sounds of crying. The more crying you hear, the lower sales are. It’s very scientific, unlike Zillow.
Agreed. When the “wail scale” hits its peak, and blubbering FBs are sharing their tale of woe and victimhood on every news channel, then this housing vulture will take wing and start spiraling over the richest carrion.
The NAR seems to believe that keeping their customer base in the dark by withholding access to their proprietary MLS databases somehow works to their advantage, but ironically, in a falling knife market, they face the same “fear of the dark” customer shyness as do the big IBs with their horde of MBS that nobody wants to touch until they have a better idea of current market value.
I don’t understand the difference between the MLS and the big online databases anyone can use. We have one here for western MT and I use it all the time looky-looing and could contact the listing agents if I were so inclined (I’m not). Does the MLS just have more listings than they’d reveal online and why wouldn’t they want to reveal them?
Zillow’s estimates are always seriously over-valued. I don’t understand how a house can be for sale for $250,000 and they will value it at $300,000. A house will sell for $245,000 but Zillow will still value an identical house next door at $325,000. I am not sure if zillow pandars to sellers but they really do the market a misservice by over valuing everything. They need to change their formula. Unfortunatly, I do not know of any better site.
The same way the ratings agencies computer models called subprime crap “AAA”. Computers have their place but there is only so much they can do. Don’t trust a computer unless you know there is a really sharp person sitting behind the keyboard. So, you probably shouldn’t trust my computer.
“…unless you know there is a really sharp person sitting behind the keyboard…”
It also helps if you know the really sharp person sitting behind the keyboard is not deliberately trying to deceive you.
It’s true that Zillow overvalues houses, but I’m not interested in this function. Zillow is fairly accurate with regards to showing sales and price history in my area (Baltimore-Washington metro), at least when I look at my own, my friends’, and relatives houses in the area in Zillow.
I was under the impression that there are official county or state-run databases on the internet that list recent transactions… in any case, my internet search didn’t turn anythign up.
When you bought your home, where did you have the deed and the mortgage recorded? Do your internet search for that office (or call them up and ask if they have a website).
Here in Chicago it’s the Cook County Recorder of Deeds. They have a pretty crappy website, but once you get used to it you can find a lot of good information for free (limited to document summaries). You can also pay to download a digital copy of the actual document.
The limit is that it takes a few days to a week for a recorded document to show up online and that many people wait months before bothering to record a document.
Washington Post has a list of transactions: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/realestate/buy/
Loudoun and Fairfax also have searchable property tax databases. Google “Fairfax Property tax” (or the name of your county) to find the database.
It’s called ‘instant equity’!
Information about recent home sales is typically available from MLS and all you need is a relationship with an agent in order to request it. This is usually as simple as finding an agent and asking, and that should be especially easy nowadays since there are so many agents.
Zestimates are not high, they just trail market changes. The market itself was high and numbers based on sales to date are going to show that. If you want to have a really good forecast then you need to calculate numbers based on previous market changes. That is much more complex than what Zillow is attempting to do. Zillow doesn’t do forecasting and the explanation of the Zestimate goes into detail about how it is not a forecast.
Re: Zillow: I try to look at the 5 year and 10 year assessed value of each interested listing. I then try to compare that to my salary at the same points in time.
My salary seems to have gone up decently, over time, but housing has gone up all amounts of stupid. That (and this blog!) helped me figure out that we were in a bubble long before the mainstream media admitted as such.
Not the most scientific way of determining the market, but seems to work.
“I don’t understand how a house can be for sale for $250,000 and they will value it at $300,000″
I can: The house hasn’t sold for $250k (yet), and so Zillow can’t take that price into consideration.
On the other hand, there is a block of townhouse in NoVA that Zillow values at $420k. The high sales price was $430k in 2006. But the last 3 sales in the summer of 2007 were $385k, $375k, and $335, and current listings are in the mid-300s. Yet, Zillow still values these at $420k.
This site will give you up to 10 recent sales near any address you type in. It shows selling price, date of sale, square ft, and $/sq ft. It only shows recent sales (within last 12 months or less).
http://www.homes.com/Content/Sold-Homes-Prices.cfm
A home across the street from our old Sarasota place sold this year for the same $/sq ft that we paid when we bought it place in 2002. Some others sold for even less.
Thanks!
Pretty neat. But most the sales here are pre-August, and I think something changed around that time..
Yes, something changed in August. Now there’s nothing selling!
that site was helpful! i immediately was shown 2 townhouses around the corner from me that sole for $5.5MM (1/07 on 100th bet. west end & bway)and $4.7MM 10/07 (on 101 bet. riverside & west end) within the last year….
they both sold for about 10 times what their 1995 prices.
I just use a local realtor site that tracks MLS (in my case, the coldwellbanker site - cbmove.com) and, once a week or so, I do a couple searches — I see total inventory in my city, and, I search “new listings” — if inventory continues to grow beyond the previous year’s inventory at same time, the market is continuing to sink. And, a quick look at new listings gives a sense of current offerings. Not scientific - but, that’s my way of taking temperature (besides seaching the city database to follow up on final sale prices for stuff near me).
Of course - if you have a lot of new housing/condo developments in your area, you should account for them separately (since they usually only put a couple models/examples in the MLS).
Don’t rely on zillow — stay engaged and look at individuals sales, listings and inventory, and you’ll get a better sense of the market.
Zillow is somewhat reliable??? I have been watching an old house of mine in a Seattle neighborhood; Zillow estimated $560k, which was pure bs, and it just sold for $448k. That’s somewhat reliable? Take their guesses with a grain of salt. I know things about that house that Zillow certainly doesn’t factor in, like it still has the roof that was on it when I bought it in 1975 (and it was dicey then); how you can literally only get one person at a time into the bathroom and if you are on the toilet your knees (I’m not tall) tough the tub; that you can’t actually get a bed up the stairs (I had to go through a second story window), etc. Buyer beware.
Grey Zones…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/12/28/carollloyd.DTL
It just shows that the real estate business is the sleaziest business there is. And the past 10 years it has gotten much more sleazy than it was. That is scary. The REIC has developed a cardinal rule for real estate transactions - “Don’t Trust Anybody”.
“The REIC has developed a cardinal rule for real estate transactions - “Don’t Trust Anybody”.
Amen, brothah! And Happy New Year!
Happy New Year to you too, Palmie.
Somebody called me “snarky” on this blog the other day. I had to look up the word. I can’t remember who wrote that but I just wanted to say, “thank you”. It made my day.
You too might be snarky, Palmetto.
City, are you sure they didn’t call you “sparky”?
I think maybe you misread.
NYSparkyBoy
SNide + sARCastic = snark
“You too might be snarky, Palmetto.”
Might be? I’ve been in severe curmudgeon mode for a few years now. BTW, check out the article in January’s Vanity Fair on Giuliani. Most interesting. Especially in the light of the tax burden placed on the American people at all levels. I don’t know why states are charging property/income/sales taxes when toll roads and other infrastructure are being sold off to foreign corps, with the assistance of people like Giuliani. I’m heartsick over what’s become of the US, but to paraphrase Ben, I need to quit moaning and wringing my hands, confront the situation and decide what I as an individual am going to do about it.
If you’re “snarky”, then I’m just a plain ‘ol A-hole.
Yep, a compliment indeed!
Snark and blogs were made for eachother.
This really doesn’t prove anything at all. Showing the property until a sale has closed sounds totally reasonable to me. If you want to close faster, then you might try paying cash or shmoozing the owner. Credit back at closing is a dumb idea, so the suckers that go for it are as much to blame as anyone. Owners trying to block thorough inspections is a sign that you want to buy some other property, so owners and agents should be thanked and waved good-bye in these circumstances since they are doing a favor. To me property markets seem vastly more in control than used car markets. I think you folks are projecting and not really taking these issues seriously. If you are dealing with people by reputation then they are going to think primarily about repeat business and references and things like this are either not going to happen or will be controlled in part by the agent who can let you know that the sellers are bad actors.
Maybe if you got out more and spent more time with seriously bad actors like drunkard airline pilots for example then you would have a more realistic perspective? When was the last time a real estate agent killed or injured many people with their negligence? If an inspection you need is blocked, then can’t you just walk away from the deal yourselves? I guess I don’t get this blame game stuff. If you get arm twisted into buying a bad house then your are to blame, period.
I was amazed at how many fingers are in the pie on a RE transaction.I last time we bought a place we did not use a used-house salesman, bought from the owner and used a closing attorney. No big deal, the whole system needs to be flushed!
There is a logical reason to expect this — no worrying about repeat customers. If P&G rips someone off on one bar of soap, the future income lost far exceeds the tiny gain. A real estate transaction is assumed to be a one-off.
I would call that the “Scorched Earth Business Model”.
“Don’t trust anybody” applies to anyone with a vested interest in peddling something to you.
Believe none of what you hear and Half of what you see! With real estate people you are wasting your time as they have nothing but their own interest at heart and if you have not evaluated in person the property you are considering then you have no one to blame!
Question for the blog:
Are there any US states, or parts of states, with very low property taxes? (Not counting special cases like Indian Reservations.)
I don’t own these days, but I know my brother paid in total about $A1,600 this year in rates on his $A550,000 house. (More specifically, on his $A280,000 block of land.) This includes sewerage connection and garbage pickup, but NOT water.
Reading through this blog I get the impression this would be considered very reasonable in many US areas.
(And thanks for the answers to my previous question on HOA’s. I don’t get much chance to acknowledge in real time, due to time zones.)
Hey… welcome to the HBB from down under. I’ve been to Aussieland & Kiwiland several years ago & loved it!! I could easily live in Australia, climate is great (wear your sunscreen!), girls are hot…. except for that whole “on the other side of the clock” ordeal…
Anyways… here in California… property tax rates are roughly 1% - 1.4% of the property’s “assessed” value. This value is usually equal to or less than the property’s purchase price. It can only go up 2% max per year. In other states (Texas, Florida, etc.)… prop tax rates are much higher (2-5%) on the prop’s assessed value.. & they get reassessed every year to “market”.. meaning if your screwball neighbor sells his place at an inflated price (fraud,etc.), you get the pleasure of a higher tax bill. That is one reason why prices in CA remain higher than in these states… not the only reason… but is surely is one of them.
Thanks for the welcome.
I’ve actually been here since before Ben switched anonymous posting off when he was at blogspot. I think that makes me a veteran, but I don’t post all that often ‘cos time zone difference has me reading in the early morning US time.
Our prop taxes are 1.3% of the assessed value. However the auditor here fought the state years ago when they wanted to raise the values of all the props. Here, even in a bad market, the properties are listed 15-25% below actual value and sales prices. If a house sells for $300k it stays on the tax records @ 225-255k even a couple years down the road. Everytime there’s a re-appraisal the auditor fights the values and always gets them reduced. I think it has to do with the fact that the county gets most of it’s money from sales tax.
To clarify re: California’s property tax, in 1976 prop 13 was passed by the voters limiting property tax to 1% + of assesed value. The plus is determined by voter approved bonded indebtedness and doesn’t amount to much.
Prop. 13, more importantly, froze the rate at which property taxes could increase by limiting the increase in assessed value to no more than 2% per year.
When a house is sold or there is new construction then the value is assessed based on the value when that happened.
Thus, if you paid 500000 for a house in 2000 your tax bill would be 5000. Your neighbor, who bought his identical house for 250000 in 1995 would only pay about $2500 in property tax.
It’s called an acquisition based tax system, for obvious reasons.
When you add other taxes, like income and sales, california ranks 19th of the 50 states in terms of local/state tax burden on it’s citizens (2005 data.)
The highest state/local burden goes to NY, Wis., Penn., Ohio, Rhode Island.
Interestingly California ranks 43rd vis a viz. fed tax dollars collected v. fed tax dollars received (78 cents received for every $1 paid by ca. taxpayers to the feds.) No.s 1 and 2 - New Mexico gets $2.03 and Mississippi $2.02 for every dollar their taxpayers send to the feds (DC excluded.)
Many (most?) states and local governments use property tax revenues to finance schools, social services, police, etc. As a result, I don’t think you’ll find places in which taxes on $280,000 property will be as low as $1,600. Most I’ve seen will be about double this.
Also, in many places property tax rebates can be had for:
o Mortgage
o Homestead (live in property as opposed to rent it out)
o Age (over 65)
o Military incurred disability
This makes it nearly impossible to compare taxes (allowing friends of the local assessor to be assessed less
)
Property taxes may or may not include services such as sewage, water, garbage pickup. Examples (where I’ve lived)
New Jersey - trash is municipal pickup, paid for by taxes, sewage and water are a seperate item, paid to the local taxing authority.
West Virginia - I was on septic and well, but paid garbage collection fees (or more properly, hauled it myself the 16 miles to landfill)
Indiana - water and sewage fees paid monthly to separate authority, pay private trash hauler to pick up.
I should have been clearer in my original post; my brother’s property would fetch $550K in a heartbeat.
The reason I mentioned $280K is that the rating basis in the ACT (for owner-occupied residential property) is the land value only.
As you say, the tax mix is very different here and in the US. My impression is that we pay much higher sales taxes and income taxes, but much LOWER property taxes and no school levies/state income taxes etc.
You are right. I live in Germany, owning a house worth about 400.000 US$, and my yearly poperty tax is about 400 US$, sewerage and such not included.
Of course, I pay other taxes everywhere, and they are not low.
I hear tell AZ is a very low property tax state.
Median house is $250K, about 1700 sqft, and would have a property tax of $1200-1500 or so a year.
Try looking at states with a high “homestead exemption”. Florida might have qualified before, but no longer.
Louisiana, assuming you live in the house as your primary residence, is perhaps the very lowest of the low. I have relatives there who pay astoundingly low rates. A friend of mine with 10 acres pays $57 a year! Others pay zero. On the other hand, my friends who own rental property there pay through the nose! Now of course, this assumes you could make yourself live in Louisiana…
Some states with high income taxes also have reasonable property tax rates, though not as good as you’re looking at. Lots of Virginia and Maryland are at 1% roughly of the property value per year, though in incorporated areas it can be near double that.
States like Texas with no income tax can really scald you on property tax.
Sometime last year, I think, Money Magazine had an article about best places to retire. Part of that formula is property tax rates, so it might be worth digging up that (or similar) articles because property tax is one thing retirees pay lots of attention to.
“Are there any US states, or parts of states, with very low property taxes? ”
My mother lives in southern Delaware. She pays less than $600.00 a year for property taxes. She bought a restored Victorian in 2005 for $210,000, in in a small town. I’ve heard that since Delaware is a very popular state for incorporation, due to favorable laws, the fees for incorporation subsidizes the property taxes.
Second Delaware. Very low property taxes and no sales tax. Beware though. I don’t think this will last much longer.
I went to a seminar a couple of years ago, where one of the presentations talked about the reasons behind the propensity of business to incorporate their US operations in Delaware.
I hadn’t realised this business-friendly climate allowed such a heavy reduction/elimination of other taxes.
Does this lead to any sort of ‘retirement effect’, such as we saw here in Australia when Queensland was the first state to abolish death duties?
I live in PA very close to DE. I know many who have crossed the border to take advantage of DE’s low property taxes. For the most part they don’t have kids, though.
Delawareans with children have been coming to PA to avail themselves of better public schools.
Well, in NYC I pay $3,000 for a house purchased for $210K and theoretically worth $1 million (on its way back to a real value of $600K or so).
But the low property taxes only apply to 1-4 family homes. Coops, condos and rental units, along with commercial property, get socked. And the low property taxes inflate the value of the homes, meaning you pay it in mortgage rather than taxes.
Plus, in addition to a very high state income tax, we have a massive local income tax (two if you are self employed). Other parts of the state without the local income taxes have sky-high property taxes, but NYC’s local tax burden is higher overall.
The winners? Senior citizens, since social security, pension and 401K income is exempt from state and local income taxes in NYC. And don’t plan on sending your kid to a public school in NYC, unless they can test in to a limited number of special deal schools.
“Are there any US states, or parts of states, with very low property taxes?”
Guesses:
- Mississippi
- North Dakota
etc
(Look for places where nobody wants to live which have relatively little public infrastructure, and you will likely find low tax rates. Conversely, infrastructure like that found in NY and Cali costs money to maintain it.)
“Look for places where nobody wants to live which have relatively little public infrastructure, and you will likely find low tax rates.” Not true for Nebraska…no one wants to live here, but the property tax is high (Lincoln): $5,000 plus for a $250,000 house. Little industry base so property owners bear the load.
Lars,
Do you live in Lincoln, NE? I might be moving there next year. Any ground truth would be appreciated.
Some parts of rural california have “timber production zones” the property tax is reduced 80% to discourage people from logging in order to pay their property taxes. Its made up for with a timber production tax.
AL, on the average, has very low property taxes. Rural areas have a tax rate of 1/3 to 1/2 percent of market value. Cities are around 1/2 to 3/4 percent of market value. Higher income suburbs, such as those south of Birmingham, are around 1 percent of market value. The jurisdictions with the higher tax rates spend much more per capita on schools than the other jurisdictions.
“Are there any US states, or parts of states, with very low property taxes?”
We left California for Washington state, which has no income tax. We are located in Grant county, which has a hydro-electric public utility district that owns two dams on the Columbia river. We are in an 1550-sqft all-electric spec-house, and our power rates are stable at $0.03/kw-hr; our monthly utility bill averages about $95/mo in the winter and about $65/mo in the summer months. Property tax rates are 1.2% of appraised value, but school levies are added until you’re retired. Overall, it’s a very reasonable and affordable area for middle income families. We live well on my $70k/yr Civil Engineering income with mom able to stay at home with the kids; not possible in CA. Downside? Long cold winters!
interesting to get the break on school tax when retired
schools in my area are now welfare distribution centers
low porperty tax states–but local taxes will also vairy a lot.
Lousiana, Hawaii, Alabama, Deleware, West Verginia, California…
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/PropertyTaxesWhereDoesYourStateRank.aspx
When Principle Trumped Partisanship - Why Charlie Wilson’s war couldn’t happen today.
“But the film offers another lesson, for both Hollywood and Washington: Good things can happen when principle trumps partisanship.”
http://opinionjournal.com/taste/?id=110011051
OT, but it looks like a fine movie
Haven’t seen the movie but the book was GREAT. If the movie is reasonably faithful to the book it is probably well worth seeing.
Yeah, Charlie Wison did great. He gave us the Telaban, Al Quida, and the social and financial turmoil that sprang from the collapse of the Soviet Union. 30 years later we still have Telaban, Al Quida, and the Russian population is gladly moving back toward socialist dictatorship.
The grim joke about Al Quida is that among its members, it has been called “Al CIADuh!”
Read “Ghost Wars” by Steve Coll. It once again illustrates that governments only do well f—ing things up. I now agree with
Ron Paul when he says that we need to get out of all of these foreign countries. Why are we still in Korea, Okinawa and Germany more than 50 years after the given wars have ended?
Wasn’t it George Washington that warned about standing armies? Let the Saudis and South Koreans protect themselves. They always tell us how they don’t want us there. We all hate nosy neighbors and then we try to defend our stance of being in the middle of everybody’s business. In extreme cases maybe we would have to step in but other than that we should butt-the-#$%@-out.
Amen! Bring them all home or make them pay for the security we provide!
NYCityBoy,
Haven’t you heard? The battle cry of the Saud Royal Family is “Onward Christian Soldiers.”
I now agree with
Ron Paul when he says that we need to get out of all of these foreign countries.
Ron Paul was interviewed the day after the murder of Bhutto. He reiterated that he thinks the U.S. policy should be non-intervention. I have come back to accept non-interventionism and I’m aware of the advantages: It costs far less taxpayer dollars and prevents a lot of lost lives in our military. Ron Paul is always refreshing to hear and see. He is down-to-earth, humble, and principled. I’m a pro-choice guy and can handle that he is anti-abortion since he wants to leave the decision up to the states.
‘Charlie Wison…gave us the Telaban, Al Quida, and the social and financial turmoil that sprang from the collapse of the Soviet Union.’
You have got to be kidding…
He is factually accurate.
No he isn’t. Your Tom Hanks history of the world is sorely lacking buddy. Carters’ Sec. of State cooked up the Taliban and even wrote a book about it.
This is kind of scary. “On the first day that shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles reached the mujahedeen fighters in Afghanistan, in September 1986, three Soviet helicopter gunships were downed.”
The book Ghost Wars that I recommended in another post deals with those stingers right off the bat. They were in Afghanistan trying to track down missing stingers and paying millions to try to get them back. We sent a lot of stingers to the Mujahadeen and didn’t really keep good track of them. In the 90s the CIA was afraid that the unaccounted stingers would be used to shoot down commercial aircraft.
I don’t know about Charlie Wilson but the gent writing this review seems to be a little too rah-rah for me.
Okay, maybe not Charlie Wilson per se. CIA had set up and was funding Mujahadien long before Charlie Wilson.
My point is, that be focusing on defeating the USSR, we created larger, longer term problems. Are we really shocked that the “insurgents” are kicking our tail in Iraq? They learned it from us when we helped them beat the Russians in Afghanistan, and we learened it from Vietnam. You don’t have to win a single battle, you just have to keep a constant supply of body bags headed home.
Thing is, even if Bin Laden acomplishes his stated goal of bankrupting “the West”, it won’t get him anything except more death and destruction. Because of our economic safelty, we’re able to worry about things like ethics. If we get desperate, ethics will be out the door and we’ll be all about brutality. Or, so says history.
Reagan’s War, Not Charlie Wilson’s
Media Bias: Hollywood would have us believe that Democrats defeated the evil empire in Afghanistan, and that President Reagan played only a minor role and even helped pave the way to 9/11.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=283391167168435&kw=charlie,wilson
It was Ronald Reagan, not Charlie Wilson, who gave the order to provide the mujahadeen with the Stinger missiles that denied the Soviet air supremacy and turned the tide of battle after 1986. Yet in the movie, the likes of Dan Rather and Diane Sawyer (director Mike Nichol’s wife) are more prominently mentioned.
To be fair, the movie doesn’t mention Jimmy Carter either. It was his naivete about Communist expansion that led the Soviets to invade Afghanistan in the first place. Had Reagan not beaten Carter in 1980 there would have been no Stingers and no victory in the Cold War.
But don’t expect a movie about Reagan’s victory over communism or Carter’s surrender to it.
‘Had Reagan not beaten Carter in 1980 there would have been no Stingers and no victory in the Cold War.’
More revisionism.
The CIA came to Reagan soon after he took office and explained that the USSR was economically dead. It was just a matter of time. Sure enough, they fell apart about ten years later.
Communism doesn’t work, that’s why they fell.
callin for the fall of Commu-China?
go long the Re-Mind-Me. oops, cant do that.
China is a farce, and so is the currency…Increased capital controls? How does one increase, absolute and total control of information, money, and thought?
better get in on some of that Chinese Goldilocks, pollyana, greatest story ever sold to a rote learned, bullshit plastic making worthless crap of an intolerable Communist regime dictating Monetary Policy to the world…
Hooray! China bought ShitteeGroup. Wait till they buy Taiwan with block-aid.
Nah, I don’t think he is kidding. Worst thing is that neo-con-munists are continuing his proud legacy with big daddy gubmint agencies like homeland insecurity.
Carter was the worst thing that ever happened to this country. You young ones can be so easily mislead by Hollywood actors. Funny that the Hollywood Libs have the most to lose if Al-Qaida is sucessful - and HL’s try to kiss up to them.
Too many hours of Rush and Sean for you. Libs and Neo-CONS are cut from the same cloth…
Actually, I’m quite conservative and consider neo-con-munists far to the left on most issues, except social and “family values”. Also, I’m not young by most standards.
Thanks anyway.
“Libs and Neo-CONS are cut from the same cloth…”
Hear hear. Show me one that isn’t about money and power and I might believe otherwise. Anybody that buys into the rhetoric of a partisan is a fool.
Either that or let the Soviets march into Afghanistan without any resistance, then continue then empire building…I assume Bin Laden, et al would have just found another haven for their money bar training…
Not only did the Soviets march in with out resistance, they built the highway they drove in on. The Germans did the same thing before WWII. A token of friendship, doncha know.
Afghanistan was a really bad idea for the Soviets from the get-go. Brezhnev was emboldened by a weak American President and his feeling that things were going his way.
I still recommend “The Decline and Fall of the Soviet Empire” by Fred Coleman. It isn’t a real difficult read. The Soviets were already very weak by 1980. We could have dealt with the situation better than thinking we would bankrupt them. We made them seem a lot stronger than they were. Afghanistan was bound to be trouble for them, no matter what.
What’s the housing market in Afghanistan like nowadays? Are there condos in Kabul?
Sorry Ben, the Ring Road was built by the US…
“In the 1960s, the United States helped build a highway connecting Afghanistan’s two largest cities. It began in Kabul and wound its way through five of the country’s core provinces—skirting scores of isolated and otherwise inaccessible villages; passing through the ancient market city of Ghazni; descending through Qalat; and eventually reaching Kandahar, founded by Alexander the Great. More than 35% of the country’s population lives within 50 kilometers of this highway, called, appropriately, modern Afghanistan’s lifeline. In 1978, the Soviet Union invaded…More than two decades of war had left the Kabul-Kandahar highway devastated, like much of the country’s infrastructure. Little could move along the lifeline that had provided so many Afghans with their means of livelihood and their access to healthcare, education, markets, and places of worship.”
…Reviving the Road: Restoration of the highway has been an overriding priority of President Hamid Karzai. It is crucial to extending the influence of the new government…”
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5380.htm
Hmm.. Thanks Spike. We learn something new everyday.
bzzzz wrong again.
The Soviets needed a highway, a big one, to bring in the tanks. So while the little goat path you describe may have been cut in the 60’s, the Soviets turned it into the multi-lane system they needed. And keep in mind that half of it was on Soviet ground. It doesn’t even make sense that during the cold war they would have allowed the US to be building roads there.
‘In the 1960s, the United States helped build a highway’
‘Thanks Spike. We learn something new everyday.’
Yeah, learn history from a vague, out of date, state department website. What does ‘helped’ mean anyway?
This reminds me of something from Ben Franklin. Six months after the colonial revolution he said that what had been written by then already made it impossible to know what really happened.
Dynamic history in motion is the best kind, and never has there been a viewing platform the likes of the internet, to watch it from…
Things Change
Dov Zakheim, DoD comptroller and point man for Afghan reconstruction within the department, said in a recent interview. Karzai, he said, is determined to use his country’s central location to be a transshipment point for Central Asia.
But before that can happen, there must be a lot of rebuilding. After 23 years of war, Afghanistan’s infrastructure is absolutely ruined. Zakheim is coordinating donations to aid in rebuilding the country. He is also trying to persuade other countries to donate to the effort or to pay what they previously promised.
But to become a transshipment point, people have to have
Trucks are the obvious answer to transportation, but Afghan roads are also suffering from 23 years of war. Journeys take days that would take only hours in the United States or Europe. It’s not uncommon for Afghan roads to simply peter out into tracks that horses have trouble on, Zakheim related.
The United States, Saudi Arabia and Japan are joining together to build the southern part of the “ring road” in the country. The road will link Kabul in the northeast, Heart in the west and Kandahar in the southeast. The State Department’s Agency for International Development is handling the U.S. contribution to the effort.
Zakheim said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers originally built the road in 1956, and it may be asked to oversee the project again. U.S. civil affairs personnel, almost all of whom are reserve component members, are in the country to help the Afghans rebuild and take their cues from the Karzai government. ”
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=42408
From the US Army Corps of Engineers website.
“In the 1960s, the United States Army Corps of Engineers helped build a highway connecting Afghanistan’s two largest cities. It began in Kabul and wound its way through five of the country’s core provinces — skirting scores of isolated and otherwise inaccessible villages; passing through
the ancient market city of Ghazni; descending through Qalat; and eventually reaching Kandahar.
More than 35% of the country’s population lives within 50 kilometers of this highway appropriately called, modern Afghanistan’s lifeline.
Civil war followed the ten year occupation by the Soviet Union. The Taliban emerged, controlling all but
the remote, northern regions. More than two decades of war left the Kabul-Kandahar highway devastated,
like much of the country’s infrastructure. Little could move along the lifeline that had provided so many
Afghans with their means of livelihood and their access to
healthcare, education, markets, and places of worship.
Restoration of the highway has been an overriding priority of President Hamid Karzai.
http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:st_xwL48II8J:www.aed.usace.army.mil/Documents/InboundPersonnelRevised.pdf+cia+factbook+afghanistan+ring+road&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=11&gl=us&client=firefox-a
‘In the 1960s, the United States Army Corps of Engineers helped build a highway connecting Afghanistan’s two largest cities. It began in Kabul and wound its way through five of the country’s core provinces — skirting scores of isolated and otherwise inaccessible villages; passing through
the ancient market city of Ghazni; descending through Qalat; and eventually reaching Kandahar.’
‘More than 35% of the country’s population lives within 50 kilometers of this highway appropriately called, modern Afghanistan’s lifeline.’
‘Civil war followed the ten year occupation by the Soviet Union. The Taliban emerged, controlling all but
the remote, northern regions. More than two decades of war left the Kabul-Kandahar highway devastated.’
Note that it was ‘connecting’ ancient cities. Don’t you suppose people traveled between those places long before the 60’s?
And again, notice that there is about a twenty year gap in these articles. The Soviets rolled in on an almost brand new highway.
Ben, after looking around some, found this…
“The Kandahar-Herat segment of the Ring Road was first constructed by the Soviets in the 1960s while, at the same time, the US Army Corps of Engineers built the Kabul-Kandahar segment. It was during the height of the Cold War, when the former Soviet Union and the United States were vying for influence in Afghanistan.”
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/afghanistan/kandahar.htm
Personally, it’s kind of a pointless discussion. Since Afghan’s major export is human misery, heroin, if the place just blew away, the world would be a better place, imo.
*monkey
(Why does it 15 minutes for my posts to show up lately?)
You didn’t hear about the petition that we all signed? TXChick and Palmetto started it. It stated that no post by Crispy could show up on the blog within 15 minutes of posting. There were 8,417 signatures.
LMAO!!!
Consider yourself lucky, Crispy. Mine take up to an hour sometimes. That’s why you don’t see me engaging in many conversations. No offense, Ben, I fully understand the spam problem that you must have.
That petition was for delaying Crisp’s posts? Dang - should have peeled off the top layer. I thought the petition was to have “Big Fun” play at the dance!
(And if you get that reference you’re probably a Gen X’er.
)
Not a lot that’s socialist about Putin’s Russia. Closer to a Tsarist dictatorship in many respects.
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Business interests and a strong man, how about fascist? BTW, Mussolini was extremely popular in the US during early 1930s. In one city they even erected his statue.
Jas
In which city did this Mussolini erection occur?
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I don’t recall the name of the city but I think it was in PA.
Jas
Chicago has Balbo Drive:
On November 6, 1926, despite the fact that he knew nothing at the time about aviation, he was appointed Secretary of State for Air. He went through a crash course of flying instruction and set up to build the Regia Aeronautica, the Italian air force. On August 19, 1928 he became General of the Air Force and on September 12, 1929 Minister of the Air Force.
“Balbo led two transatlantic flights. The first was the 1930 flight of twelve Savoia-Marchetti S.55 flying boats from Orbetello, Italy to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil between December 17, 1930 and January 15, 1931. From July 1 - August 12, 1933 he led a flight of 24 flying boats on a round-trip flight from Rome to the Century of Progress in Chicago, Illinois. The flight had seven legs; Orbetello — Amsterdam — Derry — Reykjavík — Cartwright — Shediac — Montreal ending on Lake Michigan near Burnham Park. In honor of this feat, Mussolini donated a column from Ostia to the city of Chicago; it can still be seen along the Lakefront Trail, a little south of Soldier Field. Chicago renamed Seventh Street “Balbo Drive” and staged a parade in his honor. (Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn [4] has called for the city to remove Balbo’s name from the street and replace it with a “more virtuous” Italian-American.) President Franklin D. Roosevelt invited him to lunch and presented him with the Distinguished Flying Cross.[5] The Sioux even honorarily adopted Balbo as “Chief Flying Eagle”.[6] He was received and feted by everyone, especially the large Italian-American populations in Chicago and New York. At a cheering mass in Madison Square Garden he told them, “Be proud you are Italians. Mussolini has ended the era of humiliations.”[7]Back home in Italy, he was promoted to Air Marshal. After this, the term Balbo entered common usage to describe any large formation of aircraft.” from Wikipedia
“We become strong, I feel, when we have no friends upon whom to lean, or to look to for moral guidance.”
Benito Mussolini
That lampost Mussolini was strung up from supported him and his mistress quite well.
“That lampost Mussolini was strung up from supported him and his mistress quite well.”
http://www.interet-general.info/IMG/mussolini3.jpg
Darrell,
I thought it was interesting that the article said, “Good things can happen when principle trumps partisanship.” because our political system has regressed (IMO) to a series of “ad hominem” attacks. {This means we reply to an argument or factual claim by attacking the person, rather than by addressing the substance of the argument or producing evidence against the claim. (Wikipedia)}
I was just trying to have a little holiday fun and didn’t really want to get into a political argument about it because it’s just a movie. Some people think the world would be a better place if the US wasn’t the sole super power and they think that we should just stay at home. I think we’ve done more good than bad.
Peace to all.
I would urge all Charlie Wilson affectionados to read Steve Coll’s GHOST WARS. You should also familiarize yourselves with a little-understood concept called “blowback.”
History channel did a 2 hour special yesterday with interviews of C. Wilson, his Texas Millionaire woman friend and CIA agents involved. A while back they also did a profile on C.Wilson’s CIA contact involved in the weapon’s transport. Great history.
I saw the special. Again, all parties involved were focused on one thing…. defeating USSR in the cold war. They never even thought to ask the question, “Then what?”.
Let’s take fanatics that hate us more than the Soviets, and organize them, arm them and fund them.
It wasn’t like it was a calculated risk. They never seemed to even THINK about the risk.
Too true, Darrell.
My dad knew Charlie Wilson. He is really a character, East TX legend. Good guy too.
Txchick,
I hope you are feeling better. Measles? That totally sucks. And here I was feeling sorry for myself over a nasty cold that is nearly over. Get well soon, and I’m glad you decided to give in and go to a doctor.
-Polly.
Tx,
Measles is no joke for an adult. Hope you recover soon (and haven’t infected anyone)
Thanks. My neighbor the orthopedic surgeon (lol) came over and diagnosed this. I think it’s kind of funny because I’ve been accused many times of never wanting to grow up. Thank goodness for laptops and wireless internet.
Another common one for the middle-aged today is pertussis (whooping cough), which is hard to diagnose and can’t really be treated - and the effects can easily last six months. Vaccinations that were given in early childhood in the ’50s and ’60s often provide little protection half a century later.
Whooping cough also has a cyclical lifespan of about 15 years - i.e it will re-emerge in a population roughly around the time the innoculations wear off.
I lived through an outbreak in northern Israel in the late 70’s. Fortunately, nobody died, but its distressing to see adults have to lean against sold objects, as they succumb to hopeless bouts of coughing, that can last 5 minutes or more.
Thankfully, I didn’t get it, and the exposure made me immune.
“lean against sold objects”
Thank goodness we aren’t in the middle of an outbreak. We all know nothing is selling these days…
For medicine take a box of ex-lax, suppose to be good for coughing fits.
Good luck with a speedy recovery, and many apologies for mean remarks I made a couple of weeks back. (The aggressive side of my passive-aggressive nature got the better of me…)
Yikes, my sympathies - I had 2 bouts of German measles and one of the ‘regular’ kind before the age of 6.
DON”T SCRATCH! And keep out of direct sunlight.
Get well soon.
Move over politics…
http://author.nationalreview.com/latest/?q=MjE5NQ==
Amen.
NYCityBoy sure enjoys life. So does Mrs. NYCityBoy. That is because we live simply and we try to keep our heads screwed on straight.
“The burgeoning field of “happiness studies” tells us that happiness is a peculiar state of mind, surprisingly immune to government or economic manipulation.”
I have met more screwed up rich people since I moved to this city. If you can’t be happy poor then you can’t be happy with money. That should have been a good lesson for all of these moron flippers that thought a few bucks in their pockets would make them so happy. Poverty isn’t a “blessing” but it’s not the end of the world. Contrary to what some on this blog think there are still tons and tons of opportunities in this country to better yourself. I should know.
I have met more screwed up rich people since I moved to this city.
I went to a private college in Colorado where 1/2 of the kids parents could afford $20K for tuition. Some of the most messed up, depressed kids you could have ever seen came from homes where writing a check for that amount was mere formality. Poverty does not equal happiness but neither does massive wealth.
Contrary to what some on this blog think there are still tons and tons of opportunities in this country to better yourself.
This country is still an amazing place of opportunity and freedom. Even if democracy ended dramatically tomorrow, it would still be an amazing run. Why people are so in hurry to leave it or think somehow other countries are smart or better because they aren’t us, I’ll never know. I’ve started to think that the hallmark of American “intellectuals” is the line of thinking that we’re somehow we’re the only country that has stupid/lazy/immoral people.
Is the US perfect? Absolutely not. However, I haven’t seen or read anything that would convince me that the grass is completely greener somewhere else.
“This country is still an amazing place of opportunity and freedom.”
True, but it is also a country where that opportunity and freedom is increasingly gamed.
here here mugs…
to vermonter…i agree with you as well…we just need to find a way to make intelligent discourse more important to the masses than some pathetic lithium depended wanna be like lohan/spears…etc…
sad thing is it, like mugs said seems “gamed” since, just like rome it’s the modern day bread and circus to divert our attention from “gamers” looting our personal well being/wealth, etc (pumping up asset bubbles, inside trading…free trade {i.e. if it ain’t bolted down in america it’ll be sold to the highest bidder, or guy holding what he surmises to be worthless dollars}).
We’ve got a problem, and the pols, media is not addressing important stuff…they agonize over events, oh why wasn’t bhutto protected, or why did that dog eat the 1 year old kid playing with his 7 year old brother, or wow, another brutal killing at High school XXX….BUT WHAT THE F(#($% are we doing about any of this cr$p?
Nothing, cuz people are sheeple…
Like mugs says it’s a game, keep people down (debt/fear), and entertained (stupid tart with a pink cellphone and “hot” ringtones, and zero talent), and it will all be fine…nobody will be the wiser…
I cry BS, and that’s a pretty lame migration from founding fathers to slavery abolition to greatest gen, to guys fighting terrorism (which by the way are fewer in numbers in the mil than ever before and doing a hell of a job), for what? so the above can continue to feed the machine…people need to rise up against this bs and put up a candidate that can actually make a change for the better…for, in short, us. Until then, i won’t have the same rosey outlook like yours. no offense, of course.
crush
here is a letter I wrote my family just prior to Christmas. i thought it fit the blog so i am sharing it with you.
Update from Iraq 3
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!!
The Days are going by fast, due to the tempo of flight operations are high, but the fighting is low which makes for a great mix. Idle minds on a deployment are a breeding ground for discontent especially around the Holidays. Once or twice a day I do what I call my Johnny Cash impersonation – “I Walk the Line” . I walk though the maintenance spaces and walk the flight line everyday and just talk to the Marines. Sometimes we talk about our homes and the things we miss or ‘don’t miss’; other times I try to educate them on what is going on over here, understand the ‘bigger strategic picture’, and the importance of their role in the War. We talk about the job they are performing, the challenges they are facing with it and of course I let them know they are doing great things over here and how much it is appreciated. I don’t know who gets more out of me talking to them- them or me. I know that every time I get done talking with them, they motivate me to be a better leader and better person. Marines are amazing people!!! As I get to know the Marines, the area they grew up in, and gain a sense for how good or how bad their family life was prior to coming into the Marine Corps, I get an insight into what motivates them and why they do what they do. For some, they have stories that would shock many ‘lucky’ people who never will have to face anything near what these young men and women have faced as a youth. People joke that USMC stands for Uncle Sam’s Misguided Children and in some ways it is true. We do take in misguided children and provide them opportunity that they lacked in their own family, neighborhood or hometown. The Marine Corps provided them A WAY OUT. These misguided children grow into amazing men and women who perform tasks that are seemingly impossible and more importantly do it with a smile!!
I know several Marines who are thankful of the opportunities that the Marine Corps has given them “in their own words - they would be in a gang, in jail, or even worse dead if it had not been for the Marine Corps”. For me, watching these people grow into the future leaders in the Marine Corps, or get out of the Marine Corps, get a college education and continue on to a fulfilling productive life is one thing that motivates me to stay in the Marine Corps. Even though many of the Marines are away from their families for the holidays for their first time, They are doing GREAT!!!! We do not have a lot of freedom in our daily schedule (working 12-14 hour days 7 days a week); we do not have much need for many of the consumer products that many Americans are rushing all over for, but those things don’t matter here. Here, we are surrounding with good people who are taking care of each other. When someone gets something ‘special’ from home they share it with others and tell them about how it brings them joy. For some it is Chili Verde, and for others it is a special chocolate. For me it is being surrounded by ‘good people’. Don’t get me wrong, I DEEPLY LOVE AND MISS MY FAMILY, but when one is in a good unit and the people are good, it is not nearly as bad as it could be!! The Marines have everything they need – Food, clothing and shelter. Marines are simple people with simple needs.
On Thanksgiving during our daily maintenance meeting, I spoke to the Marines about how much we all had to be thankful for - even though this was NOT where we wanted to be on this special day!! I told them “We are living better than 80-90 percent of everyone on Earth. We are Marines doing what Marines do – Fighting Wars, and Winning battles. I spoke of how we were winning the war, carrying on the long standing Marine warrior Ethos, and that they were doing an outstanding job as Marines and how, personally, I was thankful for their untiring efforts!! While my words were small, I think most Marines truly do feel thankful for what they have. I am not sure what I am going to say to them on Christmas, but what I say really doesn’t matter much. What I see is what matters, and what I see are some of the Finest American’s, doing honest work, and becoming the next generation of adults who embody what made America Great!!
Happy holidays, and merry Christmas!!
Evan
Evan: God bless!
Thanks!! In the words of Jack Johnson “Where did all the good people go?” Well, I see them every day here and I read other ‘good peoples’ thoughts and ideas on this blog!
shakes,
Thank you for sharing that, and most importantly, THANK YOU for doing what you do.
Personally, I’m against the war (tend toward isolationism), but feel tremendous respect, admiration and gratitude to those who are willing to fight it.
It can’t be easy being away from your family for so long. It is truly appreciated.
“Is the US perfect? Absolutely not. However, I haven’t seen or read anything that would convince me that the grass is completely greener somewhere else. ”
I’ve been to over 50 countries, and have liked most of them, but (for my money) the only one that comes close to the U.S. for overall livability is Australia.
.
The nice thing I like about America is its heritage. Even first generation Americans realize the individual rights and the tolerance so prevalent here. Also since we have over 300 million people, and tens of thousands of laws contradicting each other, the underlying theme is that each of us breaks perhaps 8 laws every day without knowing it. But we get on with it. We should take pride that we do not feel any sense of duty, whatsoever. We are more individualistic. than people in any other nation. That will be our saving grace when our world empire crumbles. We will turn into a big Costa Rica, (non-interventionism) and that’s not a bad thing.
I live in Manhattan and for a time used to work in CT. Most of them were multi-millionaires.
You haven’t lived until you have heard the words, “Sorry, I’m late. My 14-year old is in rehab.”
I’m not sure whether to be shocked or amused.
NYCityBoy, if you’re in the city, email me. I could meet you for a drink or some such.
My wife prevailed on me to read THE NANNY DIARIES. The movie is lame, but the book was an eye-opener. God only knows what miasma is going to come out of all those cruelly neglected offspring of the uber-rich and soulless.
I’ll bet this whiny woman was the type that couldn’t stop telling all of her renter friends how much her home price was increasing in value while the housing bubble inflated. No she doesn’t want to hear about the bubble collapsing:
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-housingtalk28dec28,0,1667536.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions
Yeah ol’ Sarah got a workout yesterday.
But I think she deserves another one today.
Oh yes, Sarah the Evil One. Compared the loss of her imagined RE riches with a diagnosis of cancer…and preferred the latter. I was disappointed that the latimes would not let you leave comments.
I think she speaks for a lot of people…greed and laziness trumps all, health, family, honest work. Her kids might have to go to public school, and she might have to work and save for retirement. Her sense of entitlement is meeting the reality of being working class–if she can keep a job. Faced with that prospect, she’d rather have cancer.
I would rather she have cancer.
We have had to endure years of bragging by arrogant house-rich jerks. I wish I could be a bigger man and just turn the other cheek. The only cheek this bitch will get is my ass and me telling her to kiss it!
More Hoops…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/28/AR2007122801374.html
I could solve this whole mess with one simple piece of regulation. Here goes. This is the NYCityBoy regulation.
“All lenders should embark on the lending process as if it were their own money that is being lent out to borrowers. Any lender that fails to comply with The NYCityBoy Lending Regulation of 2007 will have all lending gains seized and will be sentenced to hard labor for a period of no less than 10 years.”
Problem solved.
No legal sanction is necessary — Mr. Market himself can take care of the stupid lending problem, in the absence of market-distorting intervention.
–
From yesterday’s thread…
Neil: “They’re pulling permits at the rate of ~1.15 million homes per year and selling them at just over ~0.6 million a year (plus about 250k of those permits being for apartments, not sold through). Ok, we have about a year’s worth of new home inventory and we’re building at 150% of the absorption rate.”
Neil, approx. 40% of the permits currently are for multi-family units. Therefore, roughly 700K permits are for SFH. The latest “absorption rate” was close to 650K for SFH. Hopebuilders are still permitting slightly more than the “absorption rate,” with all the incentives, but in order to work off the inventory of the unsold completed homes they need to permit and build below 500K at least for a year. That assumes no recession and things not getting any worse. Assuming recession during most of 2008, permitting and building for SFH and multi-family must fall to at least half of the current rate.
Hopebuilders have a long ways to go in terms of cutting back.
Got no popcorn!
Jas
Jas — Thanks (again) for your clarification on the SFR versus multi-family component of the building permits figure. To your point I would add that record numbers of foreclosures coming on to the market suppress the “absorption rate” for new construction by giving prospective buyers cheap alternatives, offered by used-home sellers whose circumstances force them to get real and drop their reservation prices to levels the market will bear.
All Men are Created Equal… At the bottom of the page, well written and worth the read in my opinion.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
To housing market meddlers who believe the solution to the bursting bubble is to support home prices on a permanently high plateau, I have but one thing to say: It’s the affordability, stupid!
(And Mark, where did you come up with that take-home quote, pal?)
——————————————————————————-
Housing slump seen continuing far into ‘08
New-home sales hit a 12-year low
By Michael M. Grynbaum
NEW YORK TIMES NEWS SERVICE
December 29, 2007
Home builders are sharply curtailing construction and cutting prices across the country as they struggle to break out of the worst housing slump since the early 1990s.
But buyers remain scarce, and analysts say the market may not bottom out until well into next year or even later.
Sales of new homes plunged to a 12-year low in November, an annual pace of just 647,000, the government said yesterday. That is the slowest pace since April 1995, when sales ran at a pace of 621,000.
New-home purchases are down 34.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest year-over-year drop since January 1991. That leaves a large, if shrinking, inventory of unsold homes.
Americans appear to be holding out for real estate prices to drop even further in 2008.
“Right now, there is a huge gulf between what buyers are willing to pay for a house and what sellers are willing to take for it,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071229/news_1b29economy.html
P.S. “Willingness to Pay and Willingness to Accept: How Much Can They Differ? W Michael Hanemann. American Economic Review, 1991, vol. 81, issue 3, pages 635-47″
The answer: The available evidence suggests that in the real world, they can differ by quite a bit.
http://econpapers.repec.org/article/aeaaecrev/v_3A81_3Ay_3A1991_3Ai_3A3_3Ap_3A635-47.htm
This article has a couple of choice quotes. If the chorus of MSM-quoted economists continues chanting similar statements loudly enough, a housing market bottom may be reached sooner rather than later.
I predict an ongoing buyer shortage in 2008 (and possibly beyond) until housing prices fall back to affordable levels based on traditional lending standards.
New-home sales plunge to lowest level in more than 12 years, heighten recession fears
By Jeannine Aversa
ASSOCIATED PRESS
1:47 p.m. December 28, 2007
WASHINGTON – The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years.
The slump worsened even more than most analysts expected, heightening fears that the country might be thrust into a recession.
New-home sales tumbled 9 percent in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 647,000, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was the worst sales pace since April 1995.
“It was ugly,” declared Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “It is the one sector of the economy that doesn’t show any signs of life. It doesn’t look like there is any resuscitation in store for housing over the next year,” he said.
The housing picture turned out to be more grim than most anticipated. Many economists were predicting sales to decline by 1.8 percent to a pace of 715,000.
By region, sales fell in all parts of the country, except for the West.
In the Midwest, new-home sales plunged 27.6 percent in November from October. Sales dropped 19.3 percent in the Northeast and fell 6.4 percent in the South. In the West, however, sales rose 4 percent. (???)
Over the last 12 months, new-home sales nationwide have tumbled by 34.4 percent, the biggest annual slide since early 1991, and stark evidence of the painful collapse in the once high-flying housing market.
“I think you can classify what we are seeing in the housing market as a crash,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “Sales and home prices are in a free fall. The downturn is intensifying.”
The median sales price of a new home dipped to $239,100 in November. That is 0.4 percent lower than a year ago. The median price is where half sell for more and half for less.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials, after an erratic session, managed to squeeze out a small gain even as the grim home sales report added to some investors’ angst. The Dow closed up 6.26 points at 13,365.87.
Would-be home buyers have found it more difficult to secure financing, especially for “jumbo” mortgages – those exceeding $417,000. The tighter credit situation is deepening the housing slump. Unsold homes have piled up, which will force builders to cut back even more on construction and look for ways to sweeten the pot to lure prospective buyers.
“A lot of borrowers are being disqualified for loans. If you can’t qualify for a mortgage the game is over. For those who do qualify, it takes longer to get loans,” said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20071228-1347-economy.html
It was bound to fall: RE is infested with too many middlemen and too few telephone sanitizers.
For all those who say Manhattan is so different that falling prices elsewhere will never affect it, here is a NY Times article saying that people are cashing out in Manhattan for the (increasingly cheap) suburbs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/realestate/30cov.html?ref=realestate
If enough people make this choice, supply will exceed demand in Manhattan too.
Hey WT, have you ever heard me say that? I live right in the middle of this mess. I have a bird’s eye view and I’ve been on here for 2 years giving detailed reports about this City. It’s going to be ugly. I didn’t need a weatherman to see the way this wind was blowing.
The surrounding outposts are falling one at a time like clockwork. I have heard horror stories now in Queens, Long Island, Brooklyn, Jersey, etc. If this is the Alamo then I think John Wayne is heading towards the powder room with a lit torch.
“It’s going to be ugly.”
Only for those who bought at the peak. There’s plenty of suppressed demand at a real price. I will be nice when people like myself can finally afford a decent place to live, as was the case when we bought in 1994. If not in Manhattan, than at least in Brooklyn.
WtEconomist,
you’ve posted that you think CRE will be ok in this downturn. Still think that? I personally am watching the Macklowe saga, with that nice balloon payment due in Feb.
HAHAH WHAT A JOKE….Lets see they will need at least one if not 2 cars so there goes a lot of the $1000 a month in savings plus the South Norwalk train station has no monthly (cheap) parking spaces left.
Unless they buy a ONE good station car for cash, and they drive each other to the train station. Or all of their work is in Norwalk.
=======================================
Ms. Gass and Mr. Woods estimate that after taxes and train fare, they will have about $1,000 more a month to spend than they did before.
What are the requirements for a “station car”? A beater that runs?
Commuting friends who lived on an island offshore Seattle always wanted me to buy a house near the ferry dock… with an extra garage space ;). I’m not sure what they would have parked on the island side.
Station car……..I guess mine would qualify a 1996 Ford escort Station wagon with 55,000 miles…old low mileage….not worth much, but not worth selling…. plus standard am/fm radio…so nothing really worth stealing either……..Yes lets steal a station wagon for a joyride!
My best friend in NYC did this. She sold her loft in Soho at the top of the market and, with the money, bought a house upstate and had enough left over to open her own bar.
“here is a NY Times article saying that people are cashing out in Manhattan for the (increasingly cheap) suburbs”
Sorry if this is a repeat post, but it still seems highly pertinent today.
US house prices
Published: December 11 2007 09:13 | Last updated: December 11 2007 19:59
Homes are on sale across the US at prices that would have sparked stampedes three years ago. But buyers are wary. With foreclosures accelerating and asset values expected to slide further in 2008, why buy a house now when prices look likely to drop even more?
As everyone probes for the market’s floor, a range of factors is pushing prices down. Builders are discounting units to clear out inventory and generate cash but their last round of sharp price cuts failed to boost sales. The stockpile of unsold existing homes has grown by 59 per cent in two years to 4.45m. Buyers are skittish over the health of the economy and are finding it harder to secure mortgages. And President George W. Bush’s subprime relief proposal will help only a specific band of homeowners.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/11fb26e6-a7c9-11dc-9485-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F1%2F11fb26e6-a7c9-11dc-9485-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
“The stockpile of unsold existing homes has grown by 59 per cent in two years to 4.45m.”
For the record, the stockpile of unsold existing homes began growing steadily (with slight holiday season dips) beginning around January 2004. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 = four years and counting.
The remarkable propensity of headline U.S. stock market indexes to close “slightly up” in the face of every new wave of “worse than expected” news is a never-ending source of fascination for me.
US new-home sales weakest for 12 years
By By Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Chris Bryant in New York
Published: December 28 2007 16:13 | Last updated: December 29 2007 00:12
Sales of new homes in the US plunged to a 12-year low last month, signalling that the flagging housing market will remain a drag on the US economy well into 2008.
News of the bigger-than-expected dip reversed Wall Street’s buoyant start, sending the S&P, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower before they recovered to close slightly up.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a928c1d8-b55f-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fa928c1d8-b55f-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
“CHICAGO, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Traders at the Chicago Board of Trade complained on Friday after a sharp sell-off in the electronic market sent soybean prices plunging during the final minute of trading, causing a big disparity between closing prices in the pit and the electronic platform.”
hows that for fascinating…I had mentioned a while back that shorting soybeans was a good idea, Why? When you hammer the stomachs to the backbones of the emerging markets unwashed masses the PTB does not like this, and will engage in “electronic” price manipulation. Not only have complaints been filed, but sellers in the midwest would not honor the electronic price over the weekend.
What does this tell me? Get ready for manipulation of the highest order, Capital controls and “tight” money policy coming from China…a farce. US futures getting the overnight “electronic” bids up….only to sell off for the entire day.
Buffet getting into the monoline insurance business… The death warrants have been issued and signed for MBIA and ACA.
Those who doubt that we are entering a brave new world need only to pay attention to the man behind the curtain to get a flavor for the manipulation. Problem #1: The speakwrite machines are not passing the litmus test of the blogosphere. Unfortunately, most of the blogosphere are labelled fanatical, Conspiracy theorists, nutjobs, moonbats….
A little bit of capital market friction is a good buffer against asset price bubbles.
Where financial liberalisation got us
Published: December 28 2007 19:39 | Last updated: December 28 2007 19:39
These are the glory days of the financial markets. They are bigger, richer and more powerful than they have ever been. Yet it is that very position at the heart of global economic life that makes this year’s credit squeeze a threat. Already, fairly or unfairly, a pantomime cast of predatory lenders, bankrupt bankers and teenage money managers has been lined up to take the blame. There are calls – some justified – for stricter regulation of financial markets. But before writing new rules, we should remember the financial world of 40 years ago, and where liberalisation has got us.
In the US 40 years ago, commercial banking and securities trading were strictly separated by the Glass-Steagall Act, and banks were unable to expand across state boundaries. On Wall Street and in the City of London, there were fixed commissions for share trades, and a closed circle of underwriting banks. Home mortgages came from building societies or a savings and loan and there was little competition on interest rates. Banks held a lot of reserves, but before the first Basel agreement on capital adequacy, reserves often bore little relation to a bank’s risk. Exchange rates were fixed under the Bretton Woods regime and the international mobility of capital was restricted.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8f082324-b579-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8f082324-b579-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Home equity cashout ATM financing is sorely missed in Detroit.
Dec 29, 8:26 AM EST
Weak end to 2007 expected for carmakers
By DEE-ANN DURBIN
AP Auto Writer
(Latest News
Ford recalls 1.1 million vehicles
Correction: Ford Settlement
Ford agrees to settle rollover case)
DETROIT (AP) — Industry analysts are predicting a lackluster end to an already dismal year for automakers, likely the worst in nearly a decade.
Holiday discounts failed to bring consumers out of their funk, and December sales are expected to fall around 4 percent, which would bring the full-year total for U.S. auto sales to 16.1 million vehicles, the lowest volume since 1998.
Sales have been hurt by consumer anxiety over gas prices, the housing crunch and the overall weakening economy.
Industry watchers warn that the 2008 auto sales performance could be even weaker.
“Given the current economic challenges and the uncertainty associated with the upcoming presidential election, we do not anticipate that 2008 will be any more robust for the car business,” said Jesse Toprak, chief economist for the auto information site Edmunds.com. Toprak said there is little promise for a turnaround until 2009.
Bear Stearns analyst Peter Nesvold said in a recent note to investors that he’s even more concerned about 2008 sales than he was a year ago, since consumer sentiment and employment levels are continuing to deteriorate. Nesvold said the country hasn’t seen a meaningful downturn in auto sales in 15 years and is long overdue for one.
“In a nutshell, if consumers don’t feel good about the world or employment is slipping, they tend to delay major expenditures such as a new house or car, if possible,” he said.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AUTO_SALES_OUTLOOK?SITE=CADIU&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
No turn around is right. Almost all autos are bought on credit … and since credit is in the toilet, fewer autos will be bought … and since credit is in the toilet, fewer credit cards will be issued. Those cards that are already in existence will, for the most part, be revoked and the debt called. 2009? No, not then either, try 2011 or later.
Roidy
My preferred metaphor for the collapse in interbank lending is that of nervous poker players in the old American west, who are so worried about the potential need to use the pistols sitting next to them on the card table that they cannot concentrate on playing their hands.
From freeze to squeeze: lexicon of a crisis
By Lorien Kite
Published: December 28 2007 19:38 | Last updated: December 28 2007 19:38
An appreciation of moral hazard was not the only reason to wince back in September when Adam Applegarth, then chief executive of Northern Rock, took to the airwaves to explain the lender’s decision to approach the Bank of England for support. “We can’t tell when the global freeze is going to unwind,” he said.
It would be a stern pedant who took him to task for the infelicity. Stylistic elegance is one of the first casualties of disordered times and Mr Applegarth was not alone. Indeed, such has been the riot of metaphor as bankers, regulators and commentators struggled to explain the collapse in interbank lending to a confused public that pretty much everyone has stumbled.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b9ab959a-b554-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb9ab959a-b554-11dc-896e-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Has anyone heard the talking heads proposing the use of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, etc. to support the high house prices on the coasts and in large metro areas? They intend to do this by increasing the conforming loan limit to above $417K. It really is funny since most people cannot: 1) make a 10-20% down payment on a $500k house anyway, 2) make P&I plus escrow payments on said house, or 3) have the credit scores to support a loan of that size. Ridiculous nonsense.
Roidy
P.S. What DO they pay their analysts anyway? In beer and peanuts? Because that is the quality of the analyzes that is being produced.
I wonder how taxpayers in the heartland feel about the proposal to guarantee unaffordable mortgages on coastal housing? This sounds to me like a massive wealth transfer from the U.S. taxpayer to the lending industry. Homeowners of houses they cannot afford would be better off walking away than staying on the hook indefinitely for interest payments on Jumbo loans beyond their financial means.
December 28, 2007, 2:19 pm
Home Sales: Clinton to the Rescue?
Alex Frangos reports from Des Moines, Iowa, on the presidential race
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/12/28/home-sales-clinton-to-the-rescue/
That makes me want to vomit.
HC needs to retire.
I will believe this when and if I see it. Thus far the Bernanke Fed has clearly telegraphed its choice for attempting to shore up the economy in the face of a slowdown over containing inflation.
December 28, 2007, 4:03 pm
Fed to Tighten Rates by End of 2008?
The Federal Reserve may not only be cutting rates next year.
Growing concerns about inflation in particular are leading to more forecasts that the central bank could get back to raising rates by the end of 2008.
J.P. Morgan Chase economists, in their most recent report on the global economy, said the increase in core inflation (2.2% in November over a year earlier under the Fed’s preferred measure, excluding food and energy) is adding uncertainty to the Fed’s path. “Against the backdrop of weak productivity gains, a falling dollar, and rising energy costs, there is a heightened sense that the Fed faces two-sided risks,” they said. The economists see the federal funds rate dropping to 4% (from the current 4.25%) early next year but then rising to 4.5% in December 2008.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/12/28/fed-to-tighten-rates-by-end-of-2008/
Luckily gas prices are not part of core inflation.
Gas prices unusually high for December
Tight inventories blamed along with supply worries
By David Washburn
STAFF WRITER
December 29, 2007
San Diego gas prices hovered around $3.25 a gallon for regular unleaded yesterday, an all-time high for this time of year that industry experts said could be a harbinger of still-higher prices in 2008.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071229/news_1b29oil.html
I forecast a gas guzzler glut for 2008.
December 28, 2007, 4:21 pm
Four at Four: One More Lousy Housing Report
Posted by David Gaffen
The housing market is getting its licks in to the very last minute this year — today brought one more terrible housing report as the economic reporting for 2007 draws near a close (An earlier version of this post incorrectly said this was the last economic report of the year; that actually comes on Monday, with the November existing-home-sales report). On the positive side, sales of new homes fell to an annualized rate of 647,000, lowest since 1995, perhaps getting the housing market just a few inches closer to the ultimate trough in the market. While homebuilders finally seem to have their inventory situation under control — they’ve stopped building – it doesn’t help when the sales just continue declining as well. “The inventory situation for new homes would actually be reasonably encouraging if sales would ever stop falling,” notes Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. “The total number of new homes on the market slipped to 505,000 in November, the lowest level in 2 years, even though the months’ supply figure jumped.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
“The Mexican army has confiscated guns from the entire police force of the town of Rosarito, near the Mexican border with the US.”
“Mexican authorities suspect that the town’s police have been colluding with drug trafficking gangs.”
“Some 2,500 people have died so far in 2007 in turf wars between rival Mexican drugs gangs.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7163818.stm
Just over the border from Tijuana-adjacent, the narco-trade rules much of Mexico, like Al Capone did in Chicago, in the 1920’s…
And they are here in the Sierra Nevada, growing 20,000 plant gardens all over the place, on Federal Land.
How’s that war on drugs doing?
“How’s that war on drugs doing?”
very well. Ya see theres more money in drugs if they are illegal, than if they are legal…..cmon, aladine, its about the money.
War on Drugs is working…..cant cut spending and let the druggies win!
War on Drugs is not working….increase spending, cant let the druggies win.
War = money getting spent. Money getting spent = good. Ipso Facto: War is good.
I know its a bit more complicated than that, but Im sure you get the flavor. the Mexican Army… squeaky clean bunch, problem: How do they get in on the graft? put the police out of business, fire up new network through the Army…ahhh, problem solved.
further validation of my long ago pick of the most effective anti-bubble:
http://tinyurl.com/yutpgo
Bugs: “eh Daffy, did you get a Christmas card from our pal Warren this year?
Daffy: “Why yes Bugsy, mine came with a coupon for Durcell batteries & a free cherry Coke.”
Foghorn Leghorn: “Well son, I says if you can’t beat him, you might as well join ‘em”
“…Over the past four decades he has built Berkshire Hathaway into a $216 billion company…his company’s book value has soared by more than 360,000 percent”
“…But Mr. Buffett warned on Friday that the crisis that began in the market for housing debt shows few signs of abating. He added that he had decided to establish his own bond insurance company, rather than purchase one, to avoid “buying into anybody else’s trouble.”
“This creates some long-term competition from a clean AAA name,”
Question for all of you who’ve been following the credit markets/ real estate markets over the past few decades:
When did the word “luxury” start applying to “ordinary crap?” I mean today, every new real estate listing has “luxury” attached to it, in some way. Even new housing in the ‘hood is somehow “luxury” housing.
Was new real estate ever marketed to the ordinary Joe (or, in my case, Josephine?) . If so, what were the adjectives the advertisers used to sell that?
Or is this description inflating just another advertising ploy? Is it sort of along the same lines of what marketeers have done to Louis Vuitton (plastic) handbags and Juicy Couture (cotton velour) sweatsuits?
thanks.
“When did the word “luxury” start applying to “ordinary crap?””
As far back as I can remember, and that’s a while now. I remember cigarette adverts on TV that described their product as “Luxury”.
Kumbaya, my Loan, Kumbaya,
Kumbaya, my Loan, Kumbaya,
Kumbaya, my Loan, Kumbaya, oh, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s singing, Loan, Kumbaya,
someone’s singing, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s singing, Loan, Kumbaya, oh Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s praying, Loan, Kumbaya,
Someone’s praying, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s praying, Loan, Kumbaya, oh Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s crying, Loan, Kumbaya,
someone’s crying, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s crying, Loan, Kumbaya, oh, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s sleeping Loan, Kumbaya,
someone’s sleeping, Loan, Kumbaya.
Someone’s sleeping, Loan, Kumbaya, oh, Loan, Kumbaya.
LOL
Oh thanks a lot - now I have that song stuck in my head!
–
“The president has not driven the United States into a recession during his almost seven years in office.”
That would be proven wrong soon enough.
Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/12/bush200712?printable=true¤tPage=all
RECKONING
The Economic Consequences of Mr. Bush
The next president will have to deal with yet another crippling legacy of George W. Bush: the economy. A Nobel laureate, Joseph E. Stiglitz, sees a generation-long struggle to recoup.
by Joseph E. Stiglitz December 2007
The American economy can take a lot of abuse, but no economy is invincible. Illustration by Edward Sorel.
When we look back someday at the catastrophe that was the Bush administration, we will think of many things: the tragedy of the Iraq war, the shame of Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, the erosion of civil liberties. The damage done to the American economy does not make front-page headlines every day, but the repercussions will be felt beyond the lifetime of anyone reading this page.
I can hear an irritated counterthrust already. The president has not driven the United States into a recession during his almost seven years in office. Unemployment stands at a respectable 4.6 percent. Well, fine. But the other side of the ledger groans with distress: a tax code that has become hideously biased in favor of the rich; a national debt that will probably have grown 70 percent by the time this president leaves Washington; a swelling cascade of mortgage defaults; a record near-$850 billion trade deficit; oil prices that are higher than they have ever been; and a dollar so weak that for an American to buy a cup of coffee in London or Paris—or even the Yukon—becomes a venture in high finance.
And it gets worse. After almost seven years of this president, the United States is less prepared than ever to face the future. We have not been educating enough engineers and scientists, people with the skills we will need to compete with China and India. We have not been investing in the kinds of basic research that made us the technological powerhouse of the late 20th century. And although the president now understands—or so he says—that we must begin to wean ourselves from oil and coal, we have on his watch become more deeply dependent on both.
Up to now, the conventional wisdom has been that Herbert Hoover, whose policies aggravated the Great Depression, is the odds-on claimant for the mantle “worst president” when it comes to stewardship of the American economy. Once Franklin Roosevelt assumed office and reversed Hoover’s policies, the country began to recover. The economic effects of Bush’s presidency are more insidious than those of Hoover, harder to reverse, and likely to be longer-lasting. There is no threat of America’s being displaced from its position as the world’s richest economy. But our grandchildren will still be living with, and struggling with, the economic consequences of Mr. Bush.
…
“…the economic consequences of Mr. Bush.”
Nice turn of the phrase, which harkens back to an earlier commentary on world economic history…
http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/15776
Better link to Keynes’ famous commentary on the Armistice agreement:
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15776/15776-h/15776-h.htm
Historical footnote: The Armistice sowed the seeds for hyperinflation.
To Aladinsane,
you mentioned recently a post where you had listed 10 reasons to own physical gold. Would you be kind enough to repost this? Also, do you consider safe deposit boxes in eg WAMU to be safe?! I bought bullion from CNI and they are pushing the Saint Gaudens really hard. Any thoughts?
Thanks, always enjoy your posts
Pete
“Also, do you consider safe deposit boxes in eg WAMU to be safe?!”
No, no and no. Granted just one experience but very telling. When my dad died my brother and I went to the box at WaMu to empty it. (For some reason we neglected to inform the bank my father had passed on - brother was signed on account so we could get in.) We had the proper key - they could not find their proper key. Finally after an hour they broke the key off in the box!
So after an hour of wasting our time trying dozens of keys then breaking it they informed us we would have to come back in two days after they got a locksmith there to open it. Well, my brother had traveled two hours to come up and wasn’t coming back and neither of us were going to allow these idiots to open our box without us there. They told us if they had to call a locksmith that day WE would have to pay for it.
Now, there are times when it is really, really great to have an a$$hole lawyer in the family. My brother started yelling and I mean using profanity that would make a sailor blush. They threatened to call the police and he said fine as they were trying to rip us off.
Sane little sister interjected and said she would wait for the locksmith that day after brother signed her on account. Suddenly there were no arguments about who would pay for the box opening.
I emptied the box an hour later brought the gold and coins home. (Most of what was in box. However, brother got the gold as little sis got the furniture which might make some of your cringe but I love my mom’s furniture.)
So, long story short - WaMu is an incompetent, poorly run, cesspool where 20-year old idiots act like they’re gods. Avoid them at all costs! I have a box now at another bank - and good relations with some of the employees who might ignore a court order to lock down all boxes for me. Good luck and be careful!
Faux News attempts to bar Ron Paul from the upcoming Hollow Man, er, Republicrat Candidates, “debate” (as if there’s a dime’s bit of difference between these Wall Street marrionettes and their Establishment-crafted “message”).
December 28, 2007 10:39 pm EST
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – According to the New Hampshire State Republican Party and an Associated Press report, Republican presidential candidate and Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be excluded from an upcoming forum of Republican candidates to be broadcast by Fox News on January 6, 2008.
“Given Ron Paul’s support in New Hampshire and his recent historic fundraising success, it is outrageous that Dr. Paul would be excluded,” said Ron Paul 2008 campaign chairman Kent Snyder. “Dr. Paul has consistently polled higher in New Hampshire than some of the other candidates who have been invited.”
Snyder continued, “Paul supporters should know that we are continuing to make inquiries with Fox News as to why they have apparently excluded Dr. Paul from this event.”
Has anyone seen anything re. manufactured house builders lowering their prices? I mean, not already on land, you set up (i.e., have it done). Not trialers, but modular type housing that’s to UBC code, 2 by 6 construction, etc. and erected by crane.
I’m about ready to think about that route, buying some inexpensive land and putting a house on it. The ones already set up are outrageously priced here in W. Colo. My uncle did one in Alaska and he likes it a lot. Just wondering… Prices here in W. Colo./E. Utah don’t seem to be coming down very much, though very little’s selling.
If you’re going to build from scratch, why not look into a strawbale house, or even one made from used shipping containers?
Strawbale site: http://www.strawbale.com/
Shipping containers:
http://www.fabprefab.com/fabfiles/containerbayhome.htm
More on shipping container houses, and a few architects making them:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/01/shipping_contai.php
“HOMEOWNERS WOES draw sympathy on campaign trail”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119889956258157301-email.html
News like this makes my blood boil. I’ve been a model citizen! Pay lots of taxes, save money, created jobs, have zero debt. And Hillary and the rest stay up at night devising ways to steal money from me–through taxes and inflation–so deadbeat specuvestors won’t suffer losses.
Hillary even said how “concerned” she was about falling house prices. I guess affordable housing is bad, according to the liberals now? (House prices should be high, they reckon, and money confiscated from productive taxpayers to ‘help’ specuvestors make their payments)
Vote Huckabee, then.
(I am still hopeful the other R-can candidates can follow his example and take a firm stand against housing bailouts so there is a bit more of a choice in the no-bailout camp.)
Here is an apt metaphor for the mortgage market:
In Mortgage ‘Asylum,’ Inmates Are in Charge
December 29, 2007; Page A9
Your page-one article “Mortgage-Relief Plan Divides Neighbors” (Dec. 17) reveals the continued mismanagement of the economy by the Federal Reserve and the federal government. Current problems in the housing market are primarily due to the Fed’s policy of pursuing artificially low interest rates, which created a boom. The mistake was compounded by implied Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac government safety nets that encourage risk-taking. This has resulted in a banking industry whose credit standards have slipped irresponsibly.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119888603860856585.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
While I do not want to be an alarmist, the attach site with regard to Bush Administration ignoring the “will of the people” through Congress’s specific denial -this program, seems to be the way this country is going!
http://tinyurl.com/yroqa5
Does anyone here have to report anything differently that info is incorrect? Has the current administration ignored the Congress?
Please tell me that this situation is an example of mis-reporting of facts!
Best wishes in the New Year!
In the Midwest, new-home sales plunged 27.6 percent in November from October. Sales dropped 19.3 percent in the Northeast and fell 6.4 percent in the South. In the West, however, sales rose 4 percent. (???)
I have a theory on this as the raise in the west came from new money coming from Asia,India and other countries where currencies make the value of the dollar a better deal. Little do these people understand that the home was over priced and that the dollar will continue to fall. Foreigners will once again hold the bag when RE drops.
(WtEconomist,you’ve posted that you think CRE will be ok in this downturn. Still think that? I personally am watching the Macklowe saga, with that nice balloon payment due in Feb.)
Aside from perhaps retail, I think the fundamentals of commercial RE (vacancy, rent) will be fine. There hasn’t been overbuilding. In NYC, there may be a shortage.
But for those who overpaid for buildings on the expectation of soaring rents and selling at a higher price, well, that’s different. Sam Zell sold to Blackstone who dumped immediately to Macklowe for a reason.
I’d like a little collective advise from this blog community:
There are a number of large, vacant new homes in our town that have been on the market for a year or more. Some are now listed for rent and for sale. With in-laws moving to our town to consider retiring here, one of these houses might work very well in terms of letting them have their “wing” while still giving us a nice house of our own. And this option might be much cheaper than renting a second apartment for the seniors (in addition to our own rent).
Any advice on how to go about this? Can we get a clause written into a contract to the effect that if the house goes into foreclosure we can live in the house up to 2 months rent free (get deposit back and cover the cost of moving before the end of the lease). I might even be open to letting the owner continue to list and show the home, provided we are compensated for breaking the lease (moving costs) if the house actually sells (not likely) and get a significant break on the rent as compensation. Basically, we are thinking of offering $1500/mo for houses that are listed at $450-600k.
Pitfalls? Things to negotiate in advance? General advice?
I know this is late, but you might want to talk to a RE lawyer. The laws would be specific to your state/county/city and the atty would best be able to advise.
Good luck!
I just heard for the first time on NPR a recent addition to the English lexicon thanks to the credit bubble. Can anyone cite other examples?
Catchword: pixie money
Filed Under: English, Money & Finance, Slang
Part of Speech: n.
Quotation: Heard a new phrase recently: “Pixie money.” This, it was explained to me, is money that doesn’t really exist. For example, you could sell your Regina bungalow for $50,000 or $100,000 more than you paid for it, but you’d then have to spend even more money in order to buy another place. So you stay put, consoling yourself with the knowledge that your home theoretically has more value—though you can’t realize it unless you sell it, move and accept the financial consequences. So unless you figure out a way to “beat the system,” that soaring real estate value is pretty well imaginary—ergo, “pixie money.”
http://www.doubletongued.org/index.php/citations/pixie_money_1/
Makes sense that this would pop up in Saskatchewan, where elasticity of demand of housing prices would be very low, due to (1) high fixed (mostly regulatory) costs in Canada and provincial governments, making the overall spread of housing prices less and the costs of buying, selling, and moving higher; and (2) remoteness making it difficult to easily substitute other cheaper locations.
On the other hand, in the U.S., and especially on the East Coast, it is relatively easy to cash out, move short distances, and replace - I’ll use Bill in Carolina as a good example. That money he made in the Sarasota bubble sure as hell waren’t no damn pixie money.
Is inflation contained these days?
Year in review 2007
Slideshow: the year in review
Published: December 27 2007 13:01 | Last updated: December 28 2007 12:27
Price boom
“Against the backdrop of a falling US dollar, the rising price of food and oil took centre stage in 2007.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6ef34b80-afdf-11dc-b874-0000779fd2ac.html
Is inflation contained these days?
In home prices it seems to be
No its not and will go higher as the Banks want to reinflate their collateral and the FED is friends with the banks. Lots of good points on why the FED can’t Inflate and we will continue with deflation. I don’t think the FED can reinflate home prices, but I also don’t think the FED will raise interest rates to head off a dollar crash. It would cause Cramer to freak out can’t have that.
So expect inflation in commodities that are sold around the world. The plus side is US companies that export will do well.
I’m suprised you don’t start a topic ” San Diego will get affordable but will you want to live in Ca?” I expect Cali to go completely broke paying very high salaries and pensions to its state employees. Will the state let you keep your money while they have none?
We’re going broke because of the illegal immigrants.
In many school districts (like LA Unified), immigrant children are very much the majority population — many of them illegal.
Additionally, our infrastructure is maxed-out, prisons crowded, hospitals closing because too many patients have no insurance and no money (again, many/mostly illegal immigrants). So much more than “union pensions” etc.
Look at where our money is going and where it’s coming from. **That** will tell you what’s really going on.