Not Everyone Is Disappointed In Florida
The Miami Herald reports from Florida. “South Florida’s housing market continued to deflate in November, with prices down, sales plunging, and buyers scarce and frugal, according to numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors. Sales of existing single-family homes dropped 59 percent in Miami-Dade County compared to a year ago, and the weak demand pushed the median price down 4 percent.”
“Michael Pappas, president of the Keyes real estate brokerage, said his agents are seeing prices slide throughout the region — particularly in the condominium market.”
“‘It would be foolish for anyone to say there haven’t been price adjustments this year,’ Pappas said. ‘You’re not able to get the 2005 prices in 2007.’”
“Potential buyers still must consider how far the pricing retreat will go. Luis Aguiar opted not to wait. Last month he paid $327,000 for a four-bedroom house in Pembroke Pines that the sellers had bought for $485,000 one year ago. ‘I couldn’t pass that up,’ said Aguiar.”
The Herald Tribune. “During November, Sarasota-Bradenton Realtors closed on 556 houses — down 16 percent from the 664 of a year ago — but a far less painful situation than in South Florida.”
“Mortgage brokers are begging for qualified customers with money to put down. ‘We can get 15-year fixed rate money at 53/8 to 51/2 percent,’ said Dave Hofer of Re/Max Harbor Realty in Punta Gorda. ‘The problem is we don’t have enough legitimate buyers. They are not motivated.’”
“When the developer of the Broadway Promenade condo began taking orders in spring 2004, Realtors, including Steve Ivan, were falling over each other trying to get to the front of the line. Buyers were finally asked to close in June 2007, but 21 of those buying the 187 units backed away, forfeiting 20 percent deposits.”
“‘There are a lot of them that are not occupied yet,’ said Ivan. One buyer picked up a fourth-floor three-two with a partial bay view in November for $399,000 — about the same price as in 2004.”
“Tierney Foster, (an) agent in Bradenton, said most of the 70 properties her team has listed are ’screaming deals.’ She cited two listings in Manatee County that have never been lived in, both selling at sacrifice prices.”
“One in Lakewood Ranch’s Greenbrook Village is now on the market for $229,000, or $52,000 less than the owner paid in January 2006. Another in East Manatee, is on the market for $525,000, or $125,000 less than the owner paid in April. ‘We have such an amazing inventory,’ Foster said. ‘Because we’ve had so many foreclosures and such a steep drop in prices, this is now one of the best markets in the country to buy in.’”
“Anna Maria Island actually saw 2007 sales rise to 199 from 158 the prior year, according to John Van Zandt, an agent on Holmes Beach. The average price per square foot of condos, houses and vacant lots sold on the island dropped to $371 in 2007 from $653 the year before, Van Zandt said.”
“One of the most spectacular deals that he brokered was a canal-front home, with three bedrooms and two baths, once listed for $795,000. ‘We sold it for $525,000,’ Van Zandt said. ‘We sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign.’”
The Tampa Tribune. “Not since the spring of 2005 have Tampa Bay area home prices been this low. The median sales price of previously owned, single-family homes in the Tampa Bay metro area plunged 15 percent to $189,100 in November, the worst drop among Florida’s major metro areas.”
“In Orlando, the metro most similar in size to the Bay area, prices dropped 9 percent to $239,000, compared to $263,600 during the same month last year. There were 1,108 sales in November, a drop of 35 percent year-over-year.”
“But not everyone is disappointed in the median sales price data.”
“‘I think this is a good thing,’ said Deborah Farmer, incoming president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. ‘Now, we’ll have more affordable housing.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “Sales of existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County plunged last month to their lowest level on record - at least a 13-year low - as the once-vigorous housing boom continued to go bust, according to a Florida Association of Realtors report.”
“Buyers of single-family homes closed on a mere 459 sales in November, down 13 percent from the 525 sold in November 2006, the association said. That’s the lowest number since the association started keeping records in 1994.”
“The median price of a single-family home in Palm Beach County came down to $345,700, a 7 percent drop from November 2006.”
“‘Now that market conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing home sales over the next couple of months,’ said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, ‘and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.’”
“His remarks drew fire on Monday from Jack McCabe, a frequent analyst on public television business segments and president of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach.”
“‘The only voice suggesting that conditions are going to improve is the realtor association,’ McCabe said. ‘It is the prediction of every home builder, mortgage lender and banking analyst that 2008 will be one of the flattest years, if not the worst year, for real estate in this country.’”
“In Palm Beach County, the supply of unsold homes - called ‘inventory’ in real estate-speak - has risen to astonishing levels as the housing boom continues to go bust.”
“‘Fifty-five months!’ McCabe said.” “Actually, there’s a 57-month supply - nearly five years - of single-family homes in Palm Beach County, based on the current pace of sales, according to Illustrated Properties Real Estate.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Shannan Buttner knows that 2007 has been a record bad year for foreclosures in Lake County, because it has been a record good year for her.”
“Through the first 11 months of this year, banks and other lenders foreclosed on 1,812 properties in Lake County, more than double last year’s total, when 878 foreclosures were filed here, according to figures compiled by Lake County Clerk of Courts Neil Kelly.”
“The bane for overextended borrowers has been a boon for Buttner, whose small business delivers the bad legal news. ‘It started picking up at the end of last year and just avalanched this year,’ Buttner said.”
“Many of the recently filed foreclosures here — a Lake County record 277 filings in November — involve people who borrowed money at low ‘teaser’ rates that have begun to adjust upward, court records show.”
“Circuit Judge T. Michael Johnson, blames both borrowers and lenders for the crisis. Some people wishfully bought homes they obviously could not afford. But they got money from mortgage companies who gambled, too, Johnson said.”
“‘For a period of time there, all you needed to qualify for a [home] loan was a pulse,’ he said.”
“Circuit Judge Mark Hill said some people even borrowed money for their down payment. ‘Those people don’t have a dime in the house,’ he said. ‘When that’s the case, it’s easy to walk away from your obligation.’”
“Hill said that every month since May has been a record month for foreclosure filings in Lake County.”
“As the holidays approached, some judges began delaying foreclosure sales of occupied homes until January, reluctant to evict families at Christmastime. But many soon-to-be-foreclosed homes in Lake County are already vacant. Some were vacation or investment homes, owned by foreign speculators, betting on a quick flip and big bucks.”
“A few never made a single payment once the mortgage rates shot up, court records show.”
“Foreclosure sales and hearings will resume this year in hordes. Circuit Judge Mark Nacke, for instance, will hear more than 80 foreclosure cases during the second week of January.”
“As foreclosure filings increase, Buttner and her staff of document-serving messengers increasingly find the job more difficult. Three of her employees have had guns waved at them by people angry and frustrated by the news that they will be tossed from their home for nonpayment.”
“‘We’re getting more and more avoiders,’ she said. ‘You know they’re in the house. You can hear them inside. They just won’t answer the door. We just keep going back and back. Sometimes it takes eight or nine times.’”
“Three of her employees have had guns waved at them by people angry and frustrated by the news that they will be tossed from their home”
Welcome to the Gunshine State!
In addition to foreclosure, those gun-waving varmits will have to spend three years in prison. The law in FL states that anyone who points a gun at someone, whether loaded or not, upon conviction will be sentenced to three years in the pen without possibility of parole.
Why anyone who isn’t making payments and is being foreclosed is suprised is a mystery to me.
With my rudimentary understanding of Florida gun laws, this situation could produce the spectacle of home debtors engaging in gun fights with bank employees and representatives.
I know I wouldn’t be walking around delivering those notices, under the threat of firearm violence, without packing heat myself. Bank employees and representatives would probably be within their right to return fire, as anyone who confronted in their home or place of business can stand their ground and use deadly force. I think one smart lawyer can easily argue that a home that has been returned to the bank under foreclosure, and which has bank employees or contractors on the premises, is a place of business.
We could see a return to the wild west, with shootouts in subdvisions between determined FB’s, document servers, sheriffs, etc. Scary stuff, I sure hope someone is there with a video camera to catch it.
“Cops” should be an interesting show for the next few years!
You have a very vivid imagination.
There are very few gun crimes committed here for crimes other than robbery or gang-related incidents. I don’t expect that to change much.
There are very few gun crimes committed here for crimes other than robbery or gang-related incidents.
That is not correct! Tampa has a high rate of crimes involving guns. Look at the FBI stats that are provided by the local police agencies regarding crimes.
Somebody should line up the movie rights to this…
I’ve got the name picked out already…
“”The Seige of the Homestead”"…With John Wayne riding in with his six-gun blazing to fend off unruly sherrifs…
Academy award nominations…”"PLEASE”"
These FBs put the gun to their own heads when they signed their mortgage paperwork.
I hope the cops come and make jail their new home!
“Mortgage brokers are begging for qualified customers with money to put down. ‘We can get 15-year fixed rate money at 53/8 to 51/2 percent,’ said Dave Hofer of Re/Max Harbor Realty in Punta Gorda. ‘The problem is we don’t have enough legitimate buyers. They are not motivated.’”
These mortgage people still don’t get it!
Most “buyers” are now years away from qualifying, and some never will. It will take years of saving for the down payment.
Got 10% down?
And 10% as a down payment is still far too low. Unless standards look like 20% down, no more than 3X annual (verifiable) salary and a credit history free of serious problems there will continue to be a high level of foreclosures out into the future. We really need to get prices adjusted back to pre bubble levels before anything makes any sense in the real estate markets.
*I* saved until I had 20% down for my house in Sunnyvale PLUS enough to make sure we could carry the house for 6 months if we lost our jobs.
This was VERY typical when we bought, back in 1989 or so (moved in Jan 1990). We could get a mortgage for 15% down, but then we’d have to pay PMI (Now, PMI: *that’s* “cash in the trash!”)
Anyway, it was paid off in 2005.
Now all we have to worry about is our property tax (inflation protected, thanks to prop 13).
We even got our electric bill down to zero, with solar panels. Try *that* in condo, or in a home in an HOA-ruled community.
I hope you sold that house and rented then bought a nicer house for a third the price in a few years. Wish my parents had listened to me
I know someone who sold his house in Florida at the peak of the boom, and did exactly that.
While I saw it coming like the rest of us did, the carrrying costs in my Sunnyvale home are so low that we didn’t even consider this–though it would have made economic sense. (Though in California you have to factor in the property tax reset when switching homes.)
Most people I know who sold at the right time in CA simply leave the state. Some may return when prices are pennies on the dollar, then taxes likewise will be very low too. If you are still considering selling, do so before you lose all the “equity” and end up underwater.
Too many people want to treat the symptoms and ignore the disease. The real problem is prices that are too high.
All these mortgage brokers are idiots. Like I said before, if banks required 20% down it would eliminate 80% of the buyers instantly. What happens to any industry when 80% of the buyers vanish? We’re seeing the results of that today.
You’re right - one of the main problems with this real estate market is many many people simply do not have cash. For many years, Americans lived off of credit. Even rich people have very little positive cash flow - they charge everything and pay bills at the end of the month. It’s just in time cash management. If there is a deficit at the end of the month - it goes towards the balance of the card. Eventually, a HELOC come to the rescue and all is good.
Now, it’s going to take years of readjusting to be able to save money and actually have a savings account. People are going to have to budget, learn to save money and feel the pain of the little annoying extras (flat tires, doctor bills, etc). These mortgage brokers are in for a very rude awakening.
IIRC, a while back on this blog Ben had articles stating that lenders (some? many? all?) were not loaning money for Florida condo purchases any more. Is that still the case? If so, then you need 100% down to buy a condo.
Bill — that doesn’t sound right. However, it is very likely that most lenders will check out and apply the owner-occupied ratio that was important before the bubble. If I remember correctly, it was something like 70% of units had to be owner-occupied for a buyer to qualify for a residential (versus investor) mortgage.
Hm, I wonder if this will put an end to the luxury fever in tires!
Soooo annoying to find few options for small tires (on a very popular car!) and most of the floor space given to “performance” models. Um, wtf?
Also, is it normal for a new tire to develop a fast leak within six months? Took it to Town Tire and they blew some stuff in there and fixed it for $15 (sweet), but, again, wtf? (the little lady thinks she ran over something grody, but still)
In my experience, a fast leak is usually a nail or screw still stuck in the tire. The air leaks out around it. Blowing the sealant stuff in is a bad fix if that is the cause, since what was really needed was for the screw or nail to be removed and a plug put in.
The problem with the sealant is that no dealer will ever want to fix that tire again — now there is sticky stuff throughout the inside of the tire.
Or, they could… LOWER THE PRICE!!!!!
“‘We sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign.’”
Finally, it’s bottomed out.
Is that a great line to start the year with or what?
Realtors are koolaid drinking dumb money personnified.
True story from this morning’s breakfast table. I made the mistake of bringing the Philadelphia Inquirer business section into the kitchen. The November existing home sales report got me going, and that was all the provocation my father needed to join the rant.
As the subject turned to real estate agents, my parents’ Border Collie mix started retching and heaving. We really thought she was about to throw up, and I can’t say that I would have blamed her.
I think we can go long on Kevlar.
“I think we can go long on Kevlar”
I think the lady who made this quote will need some of that:
“Deborah Farmer, incoming president of the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors. ‘Now, we’ll have more affordable housing.’”
Realtors are buying. Big deal.
They were buying 5 houses each in 2005 so they could re-sell them.
Now, with a 20% discount they think they are bottom-fishing.
It amazes me that these people are so disconnected from reality that they can’t see without the easy credit terms, then prices are grossly out of line with incomes.
They keep waiting for a truckload of millionaires to descend on their city to pick up the “bargains”.
Having once been a Realtor(tm), I know what a bunch of financial dummies they truly are.
They think the world of ponzi finance is “normal”.
NOw
my mom now rents from a realwhore paid 325k
rent = $ 1200 w utilities on a golf course
they are true market mavens
You know, I actually like your brief posts. They remind me of haikus.
in 08 I’m going to learn how to copy/paste
There is a house for sale about a mile from me. Realtor owned. She wanted to rent it to us for 1800 a mo. A modest 3brm house, not well maintained, w a single car garage. Tried to tell us we needed to make a decision fast as she had others waiting. Instead I chose to rent on the water for 1600 a mo. I got a larger house and garage. The great thing is she also had the house for sale. This is about 2 years ago. It’s still for sale as are 80% of the houses in that price range in her area. She hasn’t budged on price and as far as I can tell she never rented it. There are 2-3 houses within a couple of blocks that are larger and nicer for about 20-30k less. It amazes me that she won’t budge. She must understand what’s happened to the market. She must be getting killed on taxes and upkeep. De Nile aint just a river in Egypt.
Yeah, realtors have such a stellar track record of accurately forecasting the market.
I agree. I simply do the opposite of what they predict. When they finally admit it’s a bad time to buy, then I buy!
Just wanna chime in as agreeing this was the dumbest comment in this a.m.’s Florida thread (”when realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign”). Do we have any statistic on how many of the units sold in 2003-05 were bought by used house salespeople?
“you know it’s a good sign that Realtors are stupid.”
Fixed.
A great sign that people with real estate license are buying? Sure these people in South Florida are very trustworthy and have always acted in others best self interest!! LOL.
“Anna Maria Island actually saw 2007 sales rise to 199 from 158 the prior year, according to John Van Zandt, an agent on Holmes Beach. The average price per square foot of condos, houses and vacant lots sold on the island dropped to $371 in 2007 from $653 the year before, Van Zandt said.”
So, I lived there and let me see? Humm..prices go down about 40%, inventory up by an un-reported amount (why>) and sales go up by 50 units…
“One in Lakewood Ranch’s Greenbrook Village is now on the market for $229,000, or $52,000 less than the owner paid in January 2006. Another in East Manatee, is on the market for $525,000, or $125,000 less than the owner paid in April. ‘We have such an amazing inventory,’ Foster said. ‘Because we’ve had so many foreclosures and such a steep drop in prices, this is now one of the best markets in the country to buy in.’”
I recall an add in Sarasota to ‘buy now’ this is an amazing market as prices are going up.
A bunch of realtors can get together in an area with a lot of homes for sale, and buy and sell them, serially, in an attempt to make it look like there are still sales, and that they command high prices. Just sell the “hot potato” house, and buy a different one each month.
Banks did this to fool auditors during the S&L crisis. Read Silverado
http://worldcat.org/oclc/23731845&referer=brief_results
to learn how much the Fed Gov’t paid for the land Denver’s airport sits on.
“…is on the market for $525,000, or $125,000 less than the owner paid in April.”
==============================================
It may be $125K less than it previous fraudulent price, but $525,000 IS STILL $400,000 today after all the inflation.
($400K is still too high)
Thanks Bernanke.
Anybody here going to argue 57 months of inventory places Palm Beach County as THE ground zero for the bubble?
Yes I will contest the ‘ground zero’ location.
I still say that the Inland Empire in So Cal will at some point claim the ‘We’re Number One’ title.
Remember, the birth of the subprime loan started in nearby Orange County and they coaxed the I.E. like a user to crack.
Remember, the birth of the subprime loan started in nearby Orange County…
Heh, go ahead America, keep on following California’s examples. Maybe someday y’all will finally learn that what’s done here isn’t necessarily any good for you.
“57 months of inventory”
This is only the 3rd inning.
Let’s tell them them it is not the bottom yet!
Inventory in Phoenix is off the charts and double that in either Florida or California. Illegals are self deporting en-masse with the new employment laws to top things off as well. The Florida crash was a prelude for things much much worse to come across the nation.
It’s about the same level in Northeast Miami-Dade, ~ 58 months on condo inventory-to-sales ratio with the SFH sales negligible.
The difference with the Inland Empire and the Fresno-Stackton area in Cali is that the SoFla units are usually in very desireable locations with a ton of beachfront properties available.
There’s however a job-economy problem in SoFla … of course, this isn’t going to be all that different from the rest of the country.
2008 isn’t going to be all about real estate - credit cards and auto loans will join the parade.
I personally don’t like the crime, hurricanes, weather and bad drivers. I could be moving to NW Pennsylvania as soon as this summer and it would take lots of changes, including cheap houses for me to return to FL
“‘We’re getting more and more avoiders,’ she said. ‘You know they’re in the house. You can hear them inside. They just won’t answer the door. We just keep going back and back. Sometimes it takes eight or nine times.’”
You should see what these people are like when they are in collections for a credit card. Talk about avoidance, they get their small kids to answer the phone and lie. They buy all kinds of contraptions to filter their calls, they put their phone on fax. If you do get them on the phone (admitting they are them) they say ” I ain’t got no money”. “You can’t get blood out of a turnip”. They also promise to mail payments that never show up or they send a check and it bounces. They can be beligerant, foul mouthed, extremely hostile, and I believe very dangerous.
When the banks opened up the doors of ownership to the sub primer I knew what was coming.
I can not even imagine having to be the one serving this notice. You would need to be wearing a bullet proof vest and be carrying your own weapon.
I am sure we will be hearing stories of altercations or worse as this thing progresses.
At the beginning of ‘07 I was lucky enough to assume the phone # of someone in bad financial straights. We’re still getting phone calls from the collection agencies 12 months later.
This is probably one of the largest growth industries around and I bet many of the HBB contributors would be great at this. “Cough it up your dirtbag!!!”
Actually, I would think a touchy feely “I feel your pain” approach would work a lot better if the goal was to actually collect something versus having the phone hung up in your ear.
I once read a book where a sweet little old lady’s telephone collection technique was described. When the people on the other end started cussing her out — and many of them did — she would pour some extra sugar into her voice and say, “I love it when you talk dirty.”
that line works in a variety of situations
Yes, but when it’s coming from some crone who’s about four years older than God, it makes my skin crawl!
I once lent $2000 to a friend. I was 100% sure at the time that he’d repay. When I came to know the dire straits he was in, I knew that only ‘I feel your pain’ approach would work, I anyway didn’t have any signed note etc. I actually felt the pain because I was the one losing my hard earned cash. My soft approach over a period of six months netted me $500. I had to give up on the other $1500, it wasn’t worth the stress. I learnt a valuable lesson: Never lend. Tuition cost for the lesson: $1500. Pretty hefty!
Funny, I loaned $2K to a very good friend who was / is still having troubles. But I knew when giving it to him it could be the last I would see it. Got $500 back - pleasantly surprised. Some day might see the rest. Last year about this time a relative also in trouble wanted to borrow some money. I said no thanks but here is a one time gift of $200. Only loan what you are willing to never see again.
I never lend money to friends or family. If they’re truly in need, I give them what I can afford to write off, with the provision that if they’re ever in a position to repay me, they should do so.
Warren Buffet’s sister once asked Warren for a loan to bail her on the 1987 stock market crash. His answer: “go to a bank”
At the beginning of ‘07 I was lucky enough to assume the phone # of someone in bad financial straights.
Same here - they’ve slowed to a trickle, but still. Of course the couple in question didn’t bother to let a sister know of the new number.
One thing that’s missing from public life today is a sense of shame. In Woodstock, England, I remember seeing the old stocks (with a roof for protection from the elements) and thinking, imagine if deadbeats and low-lifes found themselves slapped into these, exposed to public view and disdain. How many people would clean up their act if they were exposed to a full day of public humiliation? (Or as long as it takes.)
Call me a troglodyte, but for crimes like juvenile vandalism or identity theft, I’d bring back public flogging, followed by a stint in the stocks. People who were willfully financially irresponsible - as opposed to those experience misfortunes beyond their control - would also get their dose of shame. Just as counties currently post sex offenders and fugitives on their web sites, lenders would be allowed to have a “name and shame” campaign against deadbeats. Just the prospect of being featured on such a site would be a powerful deterrent and/or impetus to get your financial house in order.
Oh, and dunce caps in school - what a brilliant idea!
It is truly a crying shame that the great mass of Americans do not recognize my divine right to be their Supreme Ruler for Life.
http://www.geocities.com/WestHollywood/Heights/9417/punish.html
Ah, the good old days of pilories and stocks. Note the fiendish “public participation” element of the punishment.
I can’t disagree! You know how many times the MSM talks about someone who has just “lost her home”…and the so-called victim is described as a “single mom”.
…as if being a “single mom” is something to be proud of!
Actually, being ’single mom’ is the only way plenty of losers are able to live off the hard-working tax payer.
Damn straight, I’m proud. I’m proud of my MBA, my fantastic career, my donations to charity, and most importantly, my beautiful and amazing little boy.
…and I’m also proud to have forced the ex-husband to sell the house in 2005 so that we could pocket the equity, and that he went out and bought a McMansion and two new cars, while I took out several CDs and am renting a great home waiting out the crash. Humph.
You should be proud. Btw, my wife was raised by a single mom, and she turned out great!
The fact is that single motherhood is a statistical flag for poverty, and the other fact is that having children and poverty are pretty well correlated too. (Because those little rug rats are expensive! Also, really wealthy people have few children.) Something like 30% of all American children live in poverty today, and about a third of all adults in the USA today spent at least a year of their childhood below the poverty line.
What’s cool is that most of those raised in poverty rise out of poverty as adults. I say let’s keep it that way (education + jobs (but not mortgage scamming or reatwhoring, pls!)) … and I don’t have a single qualm about my tax money going to feed, clothe, shelter, and educate my neighbors’ children.
Get off the single moms! I just got off one…OK, I’m sorry, that was wildly inappropriate.
Reuven, I must warn you: I once had the gall to suggest that many single moms - by no means all - were also incredibly irresponsible in their choices of mates/spawn buddies, and that their bad choices were inflicting a heavy toll - socially and financially - on society. Man, did I get pilloried that day! It seems that even in here, some subjects are just too taboo to touch.
That was indeed memorable, Sammy.
Single moms play the victimhood card a lot, just because they chose deadbeat partners. I know a single dad in the same boat too.
kids would rather be from a broken home than in one.
For the sake of fairness (and clarity), please note that I make a sharp distinction between single moms who have showed gross irresponsibility and poor judgement in their choices of partners (or one-night stands), and those who any fair-minded person could not fault for leaving or ending the relationship. Obviously widows and women who are undeservedly deserted by their children’s father’s are especially deserving of sympathy and support.
By the way, this thread was supposed to be about corporal punishment for deadbeats, not about single moms. If you don’t mind, I’d rather not reignite that particular firestorm.
Public flogging? Nah, bring it up to date and use a taser.
Don’t tase me dude!
Given the difficulties of dealing with the actual credit card deadbeats, imagine what those of us WHO AREN’T EVEN THE DEADBEAT THE COLLECTION GENIUSES ARE AFTER would say if they ever actually called and spoke to us, or answered our call backs.
“‘We sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign.’”
Weren’t they all buying up properties at the peak as well?
Trust me, Realtors (TM) bought all the way up, and Realtors (TM) will be buying all the way down.
I’m perfectly prepared to believe it’s an excellent sign.
Somewhat akin to the Delphic Oracle’s advice to Croesus.
After seeing a house I liked in Florida, that has been on the market a long time, I offered 40% off the list price. The broker told me that he would buy it if the seller would take that little. In the meantime, the house is vacant.
In the same development, a nearly identical house is also vacant. According to county records, that owner has a $300,000 mortgage that adjusts in 2008. Between the mortgage, taxes, insurance and HOA fees, the second owner is spending around $27,000 per year by my estimates. Maybe this owner will be more negotiable.
Why not buy it from the bank in 2012 for cheap? Like $125k?
In 2012 you’ll be buying it from the county, mark my words.
The best/worst job for 2008=serving papers. Swat teams are gonna be busy this year.
“Candygram for Mongo!” (Then run like hell.)
Dime — pretty late to post this, so will include it also in the next FL thread. On reading Mike Thomas’s column in the Sentinel today, I would not want to own one square inch inside the city limits.
http://tinyurl.com/yra8zt
Slim checking in from eastern Pennsylvania.
Went to the Philadelphia Orchestra’s New Years Eve concert last night. On the way into the city, we passed by one house for sale that, according to my mom, has been on the market forever. We also went by an abandoned auto dealership. This was in (usually prosperous) Chester County.
Then my mom and dad went on a “see which station has the cheapest gas” hunt. They spotted one place with $3.09/gallon for regular. That was on the low end. The high price winner was $3.24/gallon.
As we got closer to the city, we noticed quite a few strip malls that, shall we say, had more than a few vacant shops. We also saw quite a selection of loft condos for sale in Philadelphia itself. I don’t know how well they’re selling, and I suspect that the answer is “not very well.”
And here’s the real shocker of the evening. Verizon Hall, where the Orchestra performs, had more empty seats than I’d ever seen before. I can remember seeing a few empties last year, but that was it. Before 2006, it was pretty much a sold out house, and this was also true when we went to see the Orchestra at the Academy of Music.
So, there’s the Arizona Slim report. Happy New Year, everyone!
Golly whiz Slim, we oughta carpool. I’m sitting here in Chester Springs, gotta pack up in the next 10 days and get outa here. I guess you’ll be gone by then.
I like the Slim reports. Quite informative.
Plenty of vacant homes for sale here in Montco PA that aren’t moving. Realtors are playing the DOM reset game but nothing is moving. Sellers are playing the waiting game on price. I’m not buying until they 3X median income equals median price.
my state of VA just doubled the RE transfer tax
that should speed things up
Doubled? I heard it went up 5X, at lest in NoVA.
In most of Va., it was a tripling (up 200%). In 9-county NoVa area it was a quintupling (up 400%), from .1% to .5%. That’s a “free” additional $2000 for your blessed local government officials on each $500K house sold. No worries, though - it’s for the children.
Whew…wipes sweat from brow…glad I left FL back in 1996. FL has always been a ponzi scheme state. This should throw FL right into a recession. Considering the job market has no diversity (tourism/construction/service industry), it would appear Floridians are in for a rough ride.
“glad I left FL back in 1996. FL has always been a ponzi scheme state. This should throw FL right into a recession. Considering the job market has no diversity (tourism/construction/service industry), it would appear Floridians are in for a rough ride.”
I also left that same year. There was really not many ways to make a good living in that state. I mean at that time wages were well below anything you could call good. They were just enough to get by on, enough to just keep you going. The one thing FL had was cheap living and plenty of low paying jobs. I can only say they might not have these have now. I can not even think most of the people living AND working for a living can REALLY AFFORD a $200,000 + house! That would mean the ave wage would have to be 20-25 / hour then it would take 2 people working at that rate to even come close to making it work out. The 3 biggest empolyment sectors you listed can not be paying that much plus bennys’. Please say it aint so anyone still in FL ( really hope they do pay that much but just see how it can be ).
(Dawn Crosby / Michael Carlino)
Words can’t say
The way I feel
Words can’t save me
Faith has been broken
I’m no longer blind
Faith has been broken
Time after Time
Harsh words are spoken
By those who deny
Harsh words are spoken
Lies always Lies
He whispered, “Be kind to me
Come kill me one more time
I’m lost in bitter rage”
Why tell me why
Holding on to the pain
Holding on, watch life fade
Holding on, to the past
Holding on, to wasted time
I can’t see though delusion
Oh I’m trying
Isn’t life strange
When you’re living a lie.
1991 Warner Bros. Records
Best song to listen to while reading Bubble blogs. It says to me what is wrong with the REI and lots of sellers & governments.
I also am looking at PA. How did you adjust to the winters? My mom makes a big deal out of the cold
The first winter is COLD! the second and after is better. It is like the HEAT in FL ( you sorta get used to it ) but the cold dose not last for what seems to be for ever like the heat in FL. you really can go months with no heat or AC. My wife was born and raised in FL never seen snow or knew any lenght of time with below freezing temps. She still dosent like it when it’s really cold ( never gets above 20 ) but for the most part will take the winter for the rest of the year. The north and east part of PA is the coldest in the state really cold if you go up in the mountians. Winters are about a solid 3 months Dec - Feb in the south part of the sate. You will need some heat for 4 months at least and AC for 2-3 months. I am in the Harrisburg area.
Last month he paid $327,000 for a four-bedroom house in Pembroke Pines that the sellers had bought for $485,000 one year ago. ‘I couldn’t pass that up,’ said Aguiar.
Fast Forward 1 Year >>
Last month he paid $227,000 for a four-bedroom house in Pembroke Pines that the sellers had bought for $327,000 one year ago. ‘I couldn’t pass that up,’ said Jones.
ROTFL!
That’s why they are called knife-catchers. They just can’t let it pass.
Awesome, I needed a laugh to help my hangover. However I think you hit the mark too high, it’s more like $157,000
“‘It would be foolish for anyone to say there haven’t been price adjustments this year,’ Pappas said. ‘You’re not able to get the 2005 prices in 2007.’”
Here it is again - this is now the new revisionist mantra that 2005 was peak pricing in Fla. The condo bubble in Miami was going strong right through 2006 and even though the signs of a bubble and impending collapse were plain as day prices were still rising and sales were still strong until at least October 2006.
se fl crashed in 05
got my mom out 40k late, but out in dec 05
Sarasota volume peaked in mid-2005, prices peaked late 2005/early 2006.
Maybe, but average sale prices in 2006 throughout FL were significantly higher than 2005. For FL the OFHEO 1-yr. increase for CY 2006 is 9.45%. See ofheo.gov for details - got to Q4 2006 link.
Follow-up: 4th gtr. 2006 increase in FL was a meaningless 0.77% and we know closing data lags reality by a bit, but I still think it’s pretty clear that peak pricing in FL was sometime in 2006, even if pricing momentum was collapsing (or, in mathematical terms, the 2nd derivative of price/time had already gone negative).
This is how the RE industry is out to traps the fools. They will create a false sense that the prices now are ‘normal’ and it is OK to buy.
I think all the HBBers should sign up for the HGTV dream home sweekstakes and if one of us wins the home, we should turn right around and sell it for whatever the market will really bear - especially if it is 50% or less of what they say it is worth. The MSM might even cover that story.
I think the house is in Florida this year.
I believe that -every- winner of that home contest has had to sell the house within one year due to the IRS whammy.
1. what happens when all those PE firms tries to offload the companies they purchased in M&A boom as
they can no longer “re-finance” their short terms bonds
2. raising CC deliquencies
3. Auto loan deliquencies
4. Student loan deliquencies.
2007(subprime) looks like a walk in the park
cayo_ron, have you considered relocation? This is my strategy and millions others are doing just that too. People are fleeing CA, FL, NY, NJ, MA for cheaper states like TX, TN, Carolinas, GA, PA, etc. When house prices bottom out, you will lose maybe 20% in a cheaper location but save over 100% in an expensive location. My move to NW Pennsylvania has many other reasons and I might like that location enough to stay a long time and if not, in a few years from now, Florida will become cheap again and ill be getting this huge house for $100k
You didn’t read this, so I am reposting it. Very good advice!
“Tierney Foster, (an) agent in Bradenton, said most of the 70 properties her team has listed are ’screaming deals.’
I prefer to wait for the ’squealing deals’ of 2009/2010, when today’s knife-catchers and stubborn greedheads are getting their DELIVERANCE-style reaming.
I’m still relating he’s “got a real purty mouth” to the guy who gave a collection of RE salespeople some tough love several weeks ago by telling they have to “swallow a large dose of reality.”
As in the case of EVERY boom turned bust, it seems the naive falling knife catchers are stepping up to the plate thinking they are getting in at the bottom. Wrong. Come spring (dead cat bounce time) we will see more falling knife catchers stepping forward and the NAR encouraging them because, “Now is a good time to buy.” It ain’t. 2008 will see more price declines even if we get a dead cat bounce in the spring.
Knife catchers just don’t seem to get the rent/property value ratio. Added to that, in some places like Florida, with high taxes, expensive insurance, etc, there is so much inventory, prices will eventually drop to fire sale values. Literally. There is a looooong way to go before the bottom and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a world wide financial crisis in 2008. That means there will be a lot of financial, “Blood On he Streets.”
Truth is, all these new financial system and financial instruments we have seen appear over the last 10 to 15 years, thought up by the greatest scam artists the world has ever seen, The Financial Gangsters Of Wall Street, are proving to be very detrimental to world wide financial stability. A few more shocks like the sub-prime scam and the financial systems around the world will be in serious trouble.
I predict that slowly, more and more regulations and legislation will be introduced to rein in he Financial Gangsters Of Wall Street as the smoke clears and the true human wreckage of their scams and rip-offs will be revealed in all their slimey glory.
Oh wait, I thought that was $237,000. That would make more sense.
I will be back in the market when average house price drops to $130K
People are crazy to get emotional with house purchases. They put a debt collar around their necks and start thinking happy thoughts.
Chains don’t hurt unless you move. People freeze on the day of purchase (like a rabbit in the woods) and think ‘hey this doesn’t hurt!’
Section 8 housing subsidies are another prop that keeps rents artificially high and by extension house prices.
HA HA HAHA HAHHHHAAAA
What are your drinking today?
Being retired, I do a fair amount of charity work. Sec 8 subsidies DO NOT cover even moderate quality housing, and forget anything that 98% of the people posting here would live in.
It is based on what HUD calls ‘Fair Market Value’ but not what the rest of the world calls FMV. Their numbers are much lower.
In my county they call $680 the ‘FMR’ for a 2 bedroom - try it is more like minimum $750 and up; and for a 3 bedroom $849 as compared to the real world minimum of $1200. Here I am defining ‘minimum’ as the carpet is not wearing out in places, the lineoloum isn’t torn, the bedrooms are large enough to squeeze in a single bed against the wall + 1 dresser, and it has 1 bath.
They are not even close. They base it on (theoretically) the bottom 40% of the rental market.
IN LA, it is $862-1062 for a 2 bedroom and $961-1217 for a 3 bedroom. Yeah right….in a place where the median rent for a 1 bedroom is $1500-1800.
The Sec. 8 household has to pay 30% of their gross income towards the rent amounts listed. They can rent a place that is more expensive than the listed amounts but they have to pay the difference - and the rules forbid them from spending more than 40% of gross on rent.
Where would you prefer that the cashier at the gorcery lived? Under an overpass?
My mother lives in section 8 housing. It’s actually pretty nice - much nicer and more modern than the house I lived in.
And he does have the theory correct: anytime you subsidize a part of the population it does increase costs for the whole. I haven’t seen proof either way that Section 8 housing does do that in the real world.
At any rate, I’m not sure why you think the world or the poor would collapse if the government stopped subsidizing people. I’m also not sure why it’s inappropriate for the cashier at the grocery store to be paying some form of rent.
*Shrug* I’m really not against some sort of government sponsored safety net but these random rants where we should assume the absolute worst if the government pulled the plug (and the absolute best about the people receiving subsidies) do not garner much sympathy from me for your cause.
Rest assured, we will be seeing bottom pickers getting smelly fingers for the next twelve to eighteen months. Remember, to all these people the 100% rise was normal so a 20% drop is catastrophic and a huge bargain. The hard facts remain that housing is still too expensive both as a ratio to earnings and a ratio to rental income. Additionally, the same buffoons who brought us this “crisis” are counting on 2002-2006 type economic growth to save us.
We are plunging headfirst into a major recession. Stock market valuations and projections are based on continued record earnings. Q4 projections are twenty percentage points off earlier estimates! Merrill, Citibank, et al are bankrupt. Oil is shooting for 100 $/bbl. Jobs will be lost and incomes will decline.
Is it the end of the world? Of course not, but it will be a tad different for a while. Maybe we will stop buying so much plastic crap and pointless gadgets. Maybe housing will decline to two times income and make it affordable again (I say TWO times income and not 2.5 because I believe that in a recession it will perform very badly and that this ratio needs to spend time BELOW the long-term average in order to offset the time spent irrationally above the long-term average).
I don’t know if I will ever return to the States or turn in my passport, but thinking that I can buy a home for 500 k Euros in one year when that same home would have cost me 1 000 k Euros last year brings joy to my heart.
Ignore what the NAR and the Fed is telling you. People are losing homes they could not afford in the first place with or without interest rate changes. People are not buying new homes because they are too expensive, not because of interest rate changes.
The hard facts remain that housing is still too expensive both as a ratio to earnings and a ratio to rental income.
I just took a final look at the Florida markets, mainly Tampa, Orlando and Miami for 2007. The current home prices to rental costs still have a wide gap in relation to incomes for all areas. In summary, it means we have a long ways to go before affordability returns to these markets. Based on the numbers I am seeing today, the market will not correct until fall of 2009 unless prices have a significant drop due to a recession. The bottom may hit around 2011 and perhaps into 2012, but prices in boom states will continue to fall beyond 2012. Those who have listened to the NAR’s advice or those who are holding off selling by renting will end up losing money. Local comps in boom areas cannot be trusted due to inflated values and one must do their own valuations based on numbers prior to 2000 and adjusted to inflation plus one perhaps two points to reflect a true value of a home.
“We sold it for $525,000,” Van Zandt said. “We sold it to someone who has a real estate license. When Realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign.”
One of the most ignorant quotes of 2007 from, (of course, who else), a realtor. Must buy his drugs from the same peddler that deals with David Lereah and Lawrence Yun.
A good story for 2008 might be the amount of speculative buying and selling done by realtors themselves over the last 5 years, and how much they artificially and purposefully inflated values in certain projects and neighborhoods by flipping amongst themselves, and how these realtor/speculators that didn’t sell by end of 2005 are now losing their asses. Check MLS activity of buyes/sellers listed as owner/agents.
Another story could be about realtors who hyped sales to potential buyers and “advised” them on bidding over list prices during boom years that are now telling the same people they “must be realistic” pricing their homes to sell during the crash.
“When realtors are buying, you know that’s a good sign”.
Jeez. I’m laughing my ass off at that one.