January 4, 2008

Hope That’s As Audacious As It Is Misplaced

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Bill Dryburgh a Realtor in Punta Gorda, believes the local market will begin to rebound in 2008 for one simple reason: ‘We’re close to, or at, the bottom right now,’ he said. Arthur Broslat of Re/Max Palm Realty in Port Charlotte agrees, noting land values can’t depreciate much more. ‘You can’t lose $40,000 on a $10,000 lot,’ he said, referring to vacant lots that sold for $50,000 in 2005 now listed for $9,000 to $12,000.”

“But other issues will continue to plague the market, Broslat said. Lower land prices and construction costs mean a buyer ‘can get (a home) built for $160,000, $150,000,’ he said. ‘There will be a whole bunch of people who owe $250,000 on a house worth $150,000. A whole bunch of them will take a walk.’”

“Realtor Jason Painter in Port Charlotte, also believes 2008 will ’see a lot of short sales and foreclosures.’ He predicts prices will tumble another 10 percent to 20 percent. ‘I don’t see a turnaround anytime soon,’ he said. ‘I don’t think we have seen the worse yet. If I had property right now, I’d sell.’”

“The U.S. housing meltdown and cooling of the red-hot housing markets in parts of Canada have many investors thinking now is the time to jump into real estate. It might be a little early to act.”

“Hendrickson Financial notes that ‘it is evident that home buyers in Edmonton and Calgary who bought in the spring of 2007, with less than five-per-cent down payments, already have less equity in their homes than the balance owing on their loans.’”

“An Edmonton realtor said that back in May ‘listings were gold,’ but now ‘buyers are gold.’”

“Alberta has been the centre of Canada’s booming economy. This province has seen a dramatic 50 per cent hike in housing prices in most urban centres in 2006. In 2007, the province saw the rise in housing costs trickle down into rural areas such as Pincher Creek.”

“The reason for the amount of construction is ‘50 per cent speculation’ says Trevor Birkmann, owner of Colossal Construction Ltd. ‘None are built on need.’”

“Don Lang, a broker for Pincher Creek’s Coldwell Banker generally agrees. ‘Prices have dropped recently by as much as $20,000 because there are more properties on the market. Less demand means less cost.’”

“Ah the revisionists. You can’t help loving a revisionist. He always emerges after the event to suggest that the history you have just witnessed didn’t happen at all.”

“In recent days, our newspapers have been full of articles telling us what transpired in the Irish property boom in 2007 (as if we didn’t know). Commentators who this time last year were confidently predicting that house prices would continue rising (albeit at a slower rate — the fictitious “soft landing”) now have changed their tune and are suggesting that ‘we all knew it had to stop some time.’”

“Well wait a second; if you all knew it had to stop and reverse some time, why didn’t you say so beforehand or even at the time, or even when the market was turning down in mid-2006? What, cat got your tongue?”

“The reason is simple. Most of these so-called commentators and economists are paid agents of the hype-machine which has dominated analysis in Ireland for the past five years.”

“Debate on whether or not house sale prices in the country are over-valued — particularly for the apartments in Nairobi’s upmarket estates and a number of new constructions in Langata and South ‘B’ & ‘C’ — has never left investors’ lips.”

“Finance minister Amos Kimunya joined the fray by calling on financial institutions to ‘go slow in their lending habits to avoid a bubble burst that could cause a crisis in the lending sector.’ Kimunya based his fears on ‘reports that houses…may be priced above what the market could sustain in the long run.’”

“He made the statement after what he termed as ‘reports that apartment sales in Nairobi’s upper market had stagnated due to an oversupply placed against limited demand and highly priced units.’”

“An argument that has always been sharply contested by a section of developers.’

“It was all so promising, back when we rang the opening bell for 2007. It was all good until the Wall St. greedheads and their wads of mutant debt were found out.”

“Here’s what some of the business world’s key players said along the way: ‘If you’re riding a unicycle and you lose a wheel, you’re in trouble.’ - John Kriz, head of Moody’s Investors Service’s real-estate finance arm, on subprime-mortgage lending.”

“The Bank of Fayetteville filed a foreclosure complaint Wednesday against Springdalebased developer Brandon Barber and one of his investment companies. Kathy Deck, at the University of Arkansas, said Wednesday that many developers are facing multiple foreclosures on several properties. ‘No one is quite sure how financially stable anyone is right now,’ Deck said.”

“‘I have to admit I’ve just been humbled by this market,’ Barber said. ‘It has highlighted a lot of mistakes I’ve made, but I’m not backing down. My partners and I will continue to fight. We just need some time for the market to rebound.’”

“Builders are pulling back further in the Austin area as the national housing market continues to languish. Starts for new homes declined and the number of closings dropped.”

“Home starts probably will bottom out in 2008, said Mark Sprague, Austin partner for Residential Strategies. ‘What’s happening is that the rest of the national market is pulling us down,’” Sprague said.”

“According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of housing prices, home prices have fallen by about 6 percent in the United States on average over the last twelve months. By my rough calculations, that means that home owners have lost about $720 billion in wealth as a consequence.”

“If you are a homeowner, how bad do you feel about this? You should feel pretty bad, but I’m guessing you would feel a lot worse in the following scenario: home prices did not fall at all last year, but one day you took $18,000 out of the bank to pay cash for a new car, and someone then stole your wallet with the $18,000 in it.”

“At the end of the day, your wealth would be the same (down $18,000, either from depreciation of the value of your home or because the money was stolen), but one loss is psychologically far worse than the other.”

“An inventory of more than 7,000 unsold homes in the Treasure Valley will not disappear without aggressive price cuts, a Wells Fargo economist told Idaho lawmakers Thursday.”

“‘I think home prices have gotten ahead of reality, said economist Kelly Matthews. ‘And the reality is that we’re going to have to see a big adjustment in home prices.’”

“‘There are a lot of people who did not make smart loans,’ said Trey Langford, (who) tracks building activity in the Valley. Some homeowners are now ‘upside down.’”

“Marc Leibowitz, chief executive of the Ada County Association of Realtors, said there was little new information in Matthews’ presentation.”

“‘It (price cutting) is already happening,’ Leibowitz said. ‘What people have to realize is that in real estate, everything is negotiable. And that a 15 percent price reduction is not a 15 percent reduction in the value of the house. It’s a reduction in what they’re getting for the house.’”

“Maybe, just maybe, housing is stabilizing. That was the hope at year-end 2006, based on a plateau in existing home sales. There is hope once again that housing has bottomed — hope that’s as audacious as it is misplaced.”

“‘People do not like to borrow money to buy depreciating assets,’ says economist Ian Shepherdson. ‘Until potential buyers can plausibly believe prices will not fall further, home sales will continue to decline.’”

“Prices are the mechanism through which supply and demand find equilibrium. There are too many homes for sale relative to the demand for them. Prices will have to fall further, with potential borrowers running into tighter credit standards and rising costs associated with buying a home.”

“So where’s the incentive to buy a home if the real cost is high, inventory is plentiful, prices are falling and credit is harder to come by?”

“There isn’t one, at least not yet. Interest rates and prices are apt to fall further. The effect of new federal and state regulations for mortgage lenders, while ensuring that the most recent housing free-for-all doesn’t happen again, will be to depress lending in the near term.”

“The word ‘housing’ warranted 20 mentions in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 11 meeting released yesterday, and none of the references were positive. The Fed staff expects the drag from housing to weigh on economic growth throughout 2008 and 2009. Hopes for a bottom dashed again.”




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99 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-01-04 16:24:01

Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-04 16:35:57

It’s been a fun jigsaw puzzle of fraud, to put together…

I wonder how much longer the powers that be, can keep us in suspense of the final outcome?

Comment by neon kitty lips
2008-01-04 17:41:36

I was at a party Jan 1 and met a former banking consultant, now retired. We talked housing, and I mentioned that either the ‘experts’ were really stupid or blowing smoke when they claim they were caught by surprise with how things are turning out. He smiled, said they weren’t surprised at all…..

Comment by joe momma
2008-01-04 21:23:06

Of course they weren’t.

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Comment by warlock
2008-01-04 17:50:08

The difference between a white collar criminal and a blue collar criminal?

A blue collar criminal steals your wallet. When a white collar has finished with you, the only thing you have left is your wallet.

And the blue collar criminal gets thrown in the slammer for 10 years of course. I wish…

 
 
 
Comment by Tim
2008-01-04 16:43:52

“If you are a homeowner, how bad do you feel about this? You should feel pretty bad, but I’m guessing you would feel a lot worse in the following scenario: home prices did not fall at all last year, but one day you took $18,000 out of the bank to pay cash for a new car, and someone then stole your wallet with the $18,000 in it.”

“At the end of the day, your wealth would be the same (down $18,000, either from depreciation of the value of your home or because the money was stolen), but one loss is psychologically far worse than the other.”

We all know there is no difference betweeen phantom, unrealized equity for which one produced no goods and services, and payment for producing actual goods and services don’t we? Actual savings v. credit limits, same damn thing. It reminds me when I was a child and thought credit cards were magic, never realizing you were obligated to eventually pay them off. Just a magical swipe and you get whatever you want.

Comment by jjinla
2008-01-04 17:33:34

“It reminds me when I was a child and thought credit cards were magic, never realizing you were obligated to eventually pay them off.”

And sadly, a lot of FB’s STILL haven’t come to this realization at our expense.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-01-04 19:47:50

“If you are a homeowner, how bad do you feel about this? You should feel pretty bad, but I’m guessing you would feel a lot worse in the following scenario: home prices did not fall at all last year, but one day you took $18,000 out of the bank to pay cash for a new car, and someone then stole your wallet with the $18,000 in it.”

“At the end of the day, your wealth would be the same (down $18,000, either from depreciation of the value of your home or because the money was stolen), but one loss is psychologically far worse than the other.”

This is a ridiculous comparison. There’s no “value” to a home until it’s sold!

And the lower your home’s valuation, the lower your property taxes! So there’s a real advantage there.

Also, using the “you have to live somewhere” rule, getting a higher price for your home may not mean that much unless you can sell it and live on the street.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 16:45:26

“Bill Dryburgh a Realtor in Punta Gorda, believes the local market will begin to rebound in 2008 for one simple reason: ‘We’re close to, or at, the bottom right now,’”

Good candidate for future BCU membership (Bottom Callers Unanimous).

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-04 19:15:31

Billy must room with Snaith.

 
Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-01-05 12:41:01

Realtor = We’re close to, or at, the bottom right now,’”

Sounds like Bill Dryburgh a Realtor in Punta Gorda is getting tired of flipping burgers or working in a local retail store.

 
 
Comment by HARM
2008-01-04 16:45:46

you’re riding a unicycle and you lose a wheel, you’re in trouble.
–-John Kriz, head of Moody’s Investors Service’s real-estate finance arm, on subprime-mortgage lending.

This deserves consideration for quote-of-the-week.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 18:41:01

Things are not so good at Moody’s. I have a co-worker that is dating somebody working at Moody’s. I asked her how he is doing, the other day. She said that things are better for him than they were. She then added they have let a lot of people go and he feels like he is doing the job of seven people. I didn’t want to tell her that things will be a lot better for him when they claim bankruptcy. Personally I believe Moody’s will be just one of a whole host of sacrificial lambs. There will be many Arthur Anderson’s in this go-round.

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-04 19:21:18

Chanos was on that one a long time ago.

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:51:32

im starting to understand why the little guy always gets it worng.

 
 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-01-04 19:03:20

Especially when the unicycle doesn’t have a seat.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 16:46:27

“‘People do not like to borrow money to buy depreciating assets,’ says economist Ian Shepherdson. ‘Until potential buyers can plausibly believe prices will not fall further, home sales will continue to decline.’”

Lenders do not like to loan money to buy depreciating assets. It sounds as though we have on hand a market with no buyers.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 18:42:59

PB, I think you have it right. Most people are too stupid to understand what a depreciating asset means to them. The only way the sheep will stop borrowing is if the shepherds cut off the flow of easy greens.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 19:07:18

“Most people are too stupid to understand what a depreciating asset means to them.”

Steven Levitt has tried to shed some light on this bit of confusion (see my post on it below).

Comment by SpacecoastFLRenter
2008-01-04 21:15:32

something that most popele are too dumb to get …… A house depreciates— always…they wear out just like a car and require replacement/repair. Cars boats etc all depreciate too. The land that a house is built on appreciates…but not much.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 16:51:16

“If you are a homeowner, how bad do you feel about this? You should feel pretty bad, but I’m guessing you would feel a lot worse in the following scenario: home prices did not fall at all last year, but one day you took $18,000 out of the bank to pay cash for a new car, and someone then stole your wallet with the $18,000 in it.”

“At the end of the day, your wealth would be the same (down $18,000, either from depreciation of the value of your home or because the money was stolen), but one loss is psychologically far worse than the other.”

Nice Kahnemann-Tversky-style example there. Homeowners have been framed!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(economics)

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 16:54:46

“What does this all mean for housing prices? Well, if prices start going back up, it would be a lot more fun if the price increases came in the form of little packets of cash dropped outside your front door with the morning newspaper, rather than via house appreciation. A fact that, I suppose, all those people who took out home equity loans figured out a long time ago.”

Is Levitt voicing support for the Greenspan bailout proposal?

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2008-01-04 16:53:08

“‘You can’t lose $40,000 on a $10,000 lot,’ he said, referring to vacant lots that sold for $50,000 in 2005 now listed for $9,000 to $12,000.”

- Bill Dryburgh, a Realtor in Punta Gorda, 2008

“What if C-A-T really spelled DOG?”

- Ogre, Revenge of the Nerds, 1984

Comment by HARM
2008-01-04 17:42:28

It might be true that you can’t lose $40,000 on “a” single $10,000 lot, but you can easily lose $40,000 on multiple $10,000 lots. It’s also possible to use that one lot as collateral to obtain more credit (to buy more lots or otherwise speculate), thus increasing your original leverage and risk.

So, in a nutshell, basically wrong.

Comment by Mo Money
2008-01-04 19:19:56

Percentage losses are the same whether it’s 40K or 10K for the math challenged Realtor types.

 
 
 
Comment by sf jack
2008-01-04 16:54:35

This guy could do Larry Yun’s job - not to mention he also sounds like a Clinton!

“‘It (price cutting) is already happening,’ Leibowitz said. ‘What people have to realize is that in real estate, everything is negotiable. And that a 15 percent price reduction is not a 15 percent reduction in the value of the house. It’s a reduction in what they’re getting for the house.’”

Wordsmithing it out all the way…

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-04 16:54:38

“The reason is simple. Most of these so-called commentators and economists are paid agents of the hype-machine which has dominated analysis in Ireland for the past five years.”

Irish you luck, as we have the same agent pro-pocketeers syndrome, here.

Later-Day 5th Columnists (count ‘em in for a 1/5th of the profits)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_column

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 16:57:22

“The word ‘housing’ warranted 20 mentions in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 11 meeting released yesterday, and none of the references were positive. The Fed staff expects the drag from housing to weigh on economic growth throughout 2008 and 2009. Hopes for a bottom dashed again.

Let me put this in very simple terms. You cannot get a bottom in housing when there is a gap the width of the Grand Canyon between what qualified buyers are willing and able to pay and what sellers are willing to accept.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-01-04 18:13:40

Let’s see…throughout aught 8 and aught 9, eh?

What month is this again?

Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 18:46:22

But there are now talks of tax cuts. The Fast Money crowd on CNBC said that this time the Fed will get tough. Surely, there is still so much hope.

Searching for saviors in sock drawers and sewer pipes seems to be the modus operandi for the perma-bulls. Oh, so sad to see these perma-bulls cry. Boo-hoo.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 19:10:57

W is talking up an economic stimulus package to fend off the nonrecession.

“President Bush, flanked by Vice President Dick Cheney, left, and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, is seen at the end of a meeting with members of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, Friday, Jan. 4, 2008, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Lawrence Jackson)”

Administration Considering Tax Cuts
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – 3 hours ago

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5heWSF9tlVbX2wAVCi7sLAxTfo2hAD8TVBGSO0

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Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-04 20:29:42

So the PPT is actually Larry, Curley, and Moe?

 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-04 19:24:43

“CNBC said that this time the Fed will get tough.”

If by tough they mean a .75-1.00 cut followed by a stern warning about inflation - yes they probably will “get tough”

Ode to the brothers Marx…

Mobster: “Say, are you guys tough?”

Chico: “Well, that depends on how much you pay. You pay a little bit - we a little bit tough. You pay too much - we too much tough. How much you pay?”

Mobster: “I pay plenty!”

Chico: “Good! Then we plenty tough!”

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Comment by Fuzzy Bear
2008-01-05 12:54:16

You cannot get a bottom in housing when there is a gap the width of the Grand Canyon between what qualified buyers are willing and able to pay and what sellers are willing to accept.

The same gap is even larger when you look at the spread of rental costs vs home prices.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-04 17:02:16

“So where’s the incentive to buy a home if the real cost is high, inventory is plentiful, prices are falling and credit is harder to come by?”

Checkmate

 
Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-04 17:02:30

Anyone care to explain why Canada is two years behind the U.S. in their boom/bust cycle?The stories coming out of there sounds just like California 2006-2006. It makes zero sense to me being that they’re next door neighbors easily capable of seeing the results of our boom/market meltdown.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-04 17:12:31

Oil money?

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-04 17:21:05

I heard the McDonalds in oil areas north of Edmonton, pay like $25 an hour for employees, there is so much oil biz going on up there.

Most of the real estate action was in the western provinces…

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 18:48:25

I live in the Grand Central Denial of New York City and I still say that my trip to Toronto in 2006 was the most ridiculous Bubble site I’ve ever seen. I stood there in awe as I saw madness being erected.

Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-01-04 19:09:17

“I stood there in awe as I saw madness being erected”

That’s what she said…………:)

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Comment by txchick57
2008-01-04 19:22:54

lol. I wouldn’t touch that one ;)

 
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-01-04 20:00:51

She said that, too…….:)

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-01-04 20:08:56

Haw. I would.

 
Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-04 20:18:47

scene from Young Frankenstein…after Frankenstein shows himself to Madeline Kahn=Elizabeth and all you hear is
Aaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwww sweeetmystery of life at last I found youuuuuuuuuuuuu…

 
Comment by Gulfstream-sitter
2008-01-04 20:33:45

“Haw, I would” (say that?)

That was my ex-wife’s problem……

“Is that a ten-gallon hat, or are you jsut enjoying the show???”

Best movie ever made. Although “Dumb and Dumber” is pretty close.

“Tic-tac, officer?????”

 
 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 19:17:42

oil money must be intolerant.

if you dont like the way the oil money works, buy into it.

I did, 10k investment pays my gasoline bill every month…..zero sum game.

Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-04 20:22:53

What part of the Oil bidness did you invest in?
Thnx

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Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:50:15

that sir is part of the game.

do some home work.

 
Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:56:44

vertically integrated Canadian, oil and natural gas….strong dividend…..canadian dollars.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rob
2008-01-04 17:37:38

The reason is an incredible sense of “it’s different here”. There is no shortage of “economists”, Realtors, and newspapers trotting out articles assuring people that we in Canada are not in the same situation as the US.

It’s a joke. House prices doubled in Alberta in the last 3 years, and now we officially have negative migration to other provinces due to extremely high housing costs. Our largest net export, natural gas, is in a major recession in Canada due to the declining US dollar, low natural gas prices, and increased costs of production.

Avg single family home prices are down 11% since July already, and inventories are at record levels for this time of year.

No, it’s not different here… but most residents have yet to figure that out.

Comment by fran chise
2008-01-04 18:32:12

Did you have liar loans like here? All I notice is that the Canadians are not visiting Jupiter and Naples like they used to and are trying (obviously without success) to sell their homes here. Makes the restaurant lines shorter…

Comment by Neil
2008-01-04 18:51:19

Hence why its not contained. We’ve already had a large fraction of foreign investors put their money into US housing. Now what happens when the Germans realize they cannot get their money out of Florida? Britons unable to get their money out of NYC? Japanese investors unable to sell Hawaiian property?

The dam still holds. But my… its seeping. What happens when the word really gets out?

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 19:14:31

The NYT did some article that New York City is still holding up. There were more holes in the article than a brick of Swiss cheese. But the sheep at the office hold it out as their big hope. The Germans once thought Stalingrad was a promising location.

 
Comment by Bad Chile
2008-01-04 20:00:16

What makes it worse is not only is Real Estate depreciating, but upon selling, the dollars the overseas investor receives are worth less due to the depreciating USD. If we (as a country) honestly believe that overseas investors are going to rescue all of us, we have much to learn. Two downside risks require an appropriate level of compensation. Right now, there is no upside to holding either Real Estate in the US or American dollars. Holding both with the aim of making money is like trying to clean the toilet bowl by drinking lots of beer. It might look like a great idea at the time, but when your girlfriend comes over….

 
 
Comment by lolatengo
2008-01-04 20:03:07

Yes, we definitely had (have?) liar loans here. I mentioned a few weeks ago that my partner’s family got a mortgage for their mentally ill brother. He receives social security as income only, but they declared that he had a job. There was no verification by the broker whatsoever, all for an extra $500.

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Comment by Betamax
2008-01-05 01:07:41

Few Canadians realize that the US housing market is crashing, and the few that have still fervently believe “it’s different here” in Canada. The CMHC (Can version of Fannie/Freddie) recently published propaganda suggesting that the two economies are completely separate.

Same old, same old.

 
 
Comment by GH
2008-01-04 17:02:34

“‘It (price cutting) is already happening,’ Leibowitz said. ‘What people have to realize is that in real estate, everything is negotiable. And that a 15 percent price reduction is not a 15 percent reduction in the value of the house. It’s a reduction in what they’re getting for the house.’”

Conversly, since a 15% price reduction is nto a 15% reduction in the value of a house, similarly a 100 - 200% increase is not an increase of the value of a house, only in what they are getting. Cannot have this both ways. So what is the actual value of a given house? 120X rents would be my assessment.

 
Comment by Dave
2008-01-04 17:32:15

Just sold my house after owning since 1998. I would recommend the same to everyone that owns. Until PITI gets to approximately what rents are, I’m not expecting a recovery.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-01-04 17:38:01

RE: My partners and I will continue to fight. We just need some time for the market to rebound.’”

Famous last words.

Obviously this yahoo wasn’t around in ‘90/’91.

See ya in a decade, buddy!

Comment by fran chise
2008-01-04 18:33:56

So said Custer…

 
Comment by nate
2008-01-05 09:43:40

I see this mentality all the time ” its too late to sell , I’ll just wait for the rebound.” This is what people said to themselves in the dot com bust. There will be no rebound until every speculator is gone and given up.

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2008-01-04 17:40:49

“the following scenario: home prices did not fall at all last year, but one day you took $18,000 out of the bank to pay cash for a new car, and someone then stole your wallet with the $18,000 in it.”

Wrong scenario…the scenario is as follows - Overnight, and through no hard work of your own, The Bank somehow makes a mistake that results in an extra $54,000 appearing in your bank account. Your friends and neighbors tell you that this is a natural occurrence, that it is ‘based on fundamentals’, and that, after all, ‘all dollar bills want to live in your account’. The next day, in your euphoria, you spend it on a new car, jet skis, a fancy dinner, and cosmetic surgery. The day after that, The Bank realizes that it made a mistake, and as the first step of a three part process, debits your account for $18,000, with more debits to come.

THAT is what it feels like.

Comment by Bubble Butt
2008-01-04 18:03:20

LOL - that pretty much sums up the last few years now doesnt it?

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-04 18:05:05

Speaking of discretionary spending, I’ve been noticing some pretty narly cars out on the road here in spoiled Cali. Parked at the B&N in a rather upscale mall, a car without a hood. Did a double-take, staring at the exposed motor. Soon thereafter, spotted a newish mini-van with a sizeable dent along the driver door. Never used to see that in my bubble ‘hood. Fixit fairies would sprinkle their magic dust on dinged cars while we slept, and all was well in the world. Not any more…

Comment by Neil
2008-01-04 20:13:42

We talked a while back on how people just aren’t repairing their cars like they used to.

Now when the mini-van has the exposed engine… is it cheaper just to paint hot rod flames on it? ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

Comment by SpacecoastFLRenter
2008-01-04 21:40:52

yeah..I put granite in my car– on my dash and on my arm rests…I expect to get 30% more than I paid for it back in 2001 when I trade it in next year. I only wish I had done stainless rims too.

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Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-04 21:48:56

Yeah, like those Rat Fink funny cars we had as kids! Blood shot eyeballs a popping out of the windshield…good times.

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Comment by Tim
2008-01-04 18:24:51

No hard work of my own? Did I forget to mention I put in granite countertops. Yes, that’s right. Freaking granite countertops! My realtor says thats equivalent to an entire remodel.

Comment by catspit1
2008-01-04 18:33:56

granite contretemps…

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-04 18:55:08

Flip that House 2007 - Installed granite counter-tops: Added value $97,000

Flip that House 2008 - Installed granite counter-tops: Are you f—ing kidding me?

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-04 20:36:03

Flip that House 2010 - “The first thing we’ll do is rip out those outdated granite counter-tops!”

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2008-01-04 21:05:15

Outdated, stained, germ-infested granite countertops.

 
 
Comment by sfbayqt
2008-01-04 20:54:54

“Flip that House 2008 - Installed granite counter-tops: Are you f—ing kidding me?”

I second that. It’s like no one had an original thought when it came to kitchens and bathrooms. What the hell was wrong with people? There was SO much “monkey see, monkey do” going on. Sad.

BayQT~

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Comment by Timmy Boy
2008-01-05 07:19:27

Personally… I think granite is ugly.

Prefer CEMENT countertops that you can customize, design & color to your specific taste… & it looks MUCH better… for a little bit cheaper price

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-05 12:53:30

Cement countertops are way cool…. My husband wants to rip out the Home Depot white tile and do cement, but I’m leaning toward hiring a professional. There’s lots of technical things to consider…. We pulled out the carpet in our living room, sanded down the cement slab and stained the concrete. That’s a relatively easy DIY project, though it’s quite a dirty job with all the dust. However, It looks terrific!

 
 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-04 22:10:37

Granite tops, the new lava rocks of the 60s.

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Comment by fran chise
2008-01-04 18:37:15

And the question I ask when I see the extra $54K is: “Someone has made a mistake?” Obviously, though, if your mommie told you that you were special, then you wouldn’t think that and you’d spend the money since it was only your due.

Comment by Tim
2008-01-04 18:51:50

They were all brilliant investors that deserve riches!

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-01-04 18:54:36

Haven’t seen you before. Good screen name.
(Maybe you were there and I failed to notice.)

 
 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2008-01-04 18:28:56


‘You can’t lose $40,000 on a $10,000 lot,’ he said, referring to vacant lots that sold for $50,000 in 2005 now listed for $9,000 to $12,000.”

But you can still lose 80-90% on lots.

A Swiss friend, who lived in CA for 5 years, bought few lots in California City for $2,200+- on e-Bay. One lot that he bought was bought by the seller for below $300 on e-Bay several years prior. My friend sold that lot for $12K+ within 2 years of the purchase. I actually accompanied the friend to see the lots out of curiosity. They were worth no more than few hundred dollars.

Most of the land in AV is worth less than $1,000 an acre. Pretty soon it will go for $100 an acre.

Jas

Comment by rms
2008-01-04 21:37:06

Jas, here are some concrete houses in your corner of the world.

 
 
Comment by Ouro Verde
2008-01-04 19:19:41

What a day
What a week.
Glad its over
Whats up next?

Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-04 19:40:56

How ’bout playing a parlor game: What I Would Do to Clean Up this Mess? Aka: Operation WIWDTCUTM We’ve discussed all the symptoms ad nauseum, so what’s the cure?

Comment by vthousingbear
2008-01-04 20:02:44

‘Speaking word of wisdom…..let it be’.

The Fed needs to listen to more Beatles.

Comment by rms
2008-01-04 21:52:52

“The Fed needs to listen to more Beatles.”

Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman

Should five per cent appear too small
Be thankful I don’t take it all
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah I’m the taxman

If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat.
If you get too cold I’ll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet.

Don’t ask me what I want it for
If you don’t want to pay some more
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman

Now my advice for those who die
Declare the pennies on your eyes
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman
And you’re working for no one but me. :)

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Comment by aqius
2008-01-04 19:28:34

wow what a storm! all kinds of realtor for sale signs blown over . dodged several downed power lines on auburn blvd next to bus 80. trees blowing almost bent in half. thousands of trash cans in the streets. looked like a katrina style storm on the radar. winds at 60mph+ all day. just incredible here in sacramento.

little while ago coulda sworn I saw my ex -wife ridin by on a bicycle pedalling furiously , screaming ” I’ll get you my prettyyyyyy ” ….

Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-04 20:30:25

LOL
my laughing tonight is bugging DH across at his own pc..

 
Comment by slb
2008-01-04 21:48:06

The weather channel said there were gusts of 150 mph in the Sierra. And 1.5 mil. peo. w/out power @ some pt. My part of the central valley, Modesto, didn’t get hit so bad w/ the winds yet, although there was a clump of mistletoe on the yard when I got home from work & the cable tv just now lost it’s signal.

 
 
Comment by rudekarl
2008-01-04 20:04:35

“Hendrickson Financial notes that ‘it is evident that home buyers in Edmonton and Calgary who bought in the spring of 2007, with less than five-per-cent down payments, already have less equity in their homes than the balance owing on their loans.’”

The whole “less equity” / negative equity BS is a bit annoying. If you’re upside down, you have “NO” equity.

 
Comment by SDGreg
2008-01-04 20:05:52

“Most of these so-called commentators and economists are paid agents of the hype-machine which has dominated analysis in Ireland for the past five years.”

“You’d be mad to buy a house in 2008 — particularly with so many charlatans desperate to get paid at your expense.”

Telling it like it really is. Too bad too many “reporters” appear to be little more than paid stenographers.

For me, it’s not enough for prices simply to come down. The way homes are bought and sold needs to fundamentally change.

Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-04 20:31:44

…”For me, it’s not enough for prices simply to come down. The way homes are bought and sold needs to fundamentally change. “…
and so our gvmnt and how they shift monies in, monies out.

 
 
Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:06:05

As Henry Kissinger declared in the 1970’s, ‘If you control the oil you control the country; if you control food, you control the population.’

who controls the food when CHNIA is implementing HIGH TARRIFS on AG EXPORTS!!

commodity rally continues? why oil..
gold and the precious remains the path of least resistance, unless big bro steps in.

Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:17:10

That declining yield characteristic of hybrids meant farmers must normally buy seed every year in order to obtain high yields. Moreover, the lower yield of the second generation eliminated the trade in seed that was often done by seed producers without the breeder’s authorization. It prevented the redistribution of the commercial crop seed by middlemen. If the large multinational seed

Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:58:55

monsanto
dupont
dow chemical

Im an going long these strong hands.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-04 20:23:12
Comment by vozworth
2008-01-04 20:31:44

chick I gotta tell ya, I have tried that site, and it just does not work for me….

 
Comment by SaladSD
2008-01-04 22:02:18

I was able to open the site and my, my, my, I learned a new acronym today, PPT: Plunge Protection Team.

“President meeting with the PPT today. This from Comstock Funds yesterday: As if to give emphasis to our negative outlook, it has been announced that tomorrow (Friday) President Bush will, for the first time, meet with members of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets to discuss the current financial and economic situation. This is the formal name for the so-called Plunge Protection Team that was formed by President Reagan following the 1987 market crash. Its stated purpose was to prepare to deal with a serious credit or market crisis that could significantly impact financial institutions and the economy. While we understand that the team has met periodically with no announcement, we are unaware of any president ever meeting formally with the group. We think they view the current financial and economic situation with alarm—and so should you.

 
 
Comment by inurdreams
2008-01-05 01:44:41

Realtor Jason Painter in Port Charlotte says: “If I had property right now, I’d sell.”
At this point, that sounds like a joke. There are no buyers willing to jump into the market, other than a few that have to buy for employment reasons, etc. Sellers are not getting people to view their listed houses, then they lower the price, and still there are no interested viewers.
Houses have stopped selling.
New houses are discounted more than sellers of existing houses can (or will) adjust their price.
Realtor Jason Painter would sell now. In his dreams.

 
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