Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 5, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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John Mauldin’s “Thoughts from the Frontline” this week is well worth a read. Remains bearish on housing (next 18 mos minimum), believes we are in recession and that the 18K new jobs in recent report are non-existent, but thinks the general recession (other than housing) will be mild and will turn into an “L” later this year. Also that USD will firm against Euro and pound but not against yen etc.
04:49:52
Posted @ 4:42 am
Okay a second time check. right now in NY city it is 9:35 pm
makes sense , what’s so great about the socialist euro zone?
It is very surprising, how many people in USA are imagining Europe as was it in 70’s, where social and welfare benefits were guaranteed from a cradle to grave. However, today’s Europe is very different than was 25 years ago. Many countries are run by center-right, business friendly governments that went on path of cutting taxes. This year several countries cut taxes; and additional cuts are expected in 2009-2010 (Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, etc…). Many states are eyeing with flat income tax and end progressive taxation. Do you know that USA corporate taxes with a few exceptions are higher than European ones? Do you know, that many countries of EU offer flat corporate tax between 10-22%? A few countries do have really lower unemployment than USA, and almost all of them have lowest unemployment in several decades. The shortages of workers are reported almost in every segment of economy. Additionally, many countries are still competitive on global market and have significant trade surpluses. Combine this with balanced budget or low deficit (1-2%). Europe has many problems, but people should stop paying attention to Fox News propaganda and believing 12% unemployment and nationalizing socialists busy demonstrating at the streets.
“A few countries do have really lower unemployment than USA”
Like Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain perhaps?
It’s also not the right but the left in this country that is more keen about hiding Europe’s low corporate tax rates. But a corporate tax cut is coming in the U.S. - only fiscal (not monetary) policy changes will lead us out of the recession.
You’ll never convince me that the quality of life in Western Europe is anything but abysmal. There is no place I would less rather live. Makes a good venue for bicycle racing; other than that, it’s the pits except for the super-wealthy.
BTW, Virginians don’t talk like you.
It is very nice you had selected the countries with higher than USA unemployment rate, but as I had mentioned, there are countries in Europe that have lower rate than USA.
Austria – 4.3%, Denmark 2.9%, Ireland – 4.4%, Netherlands – 3.1%; other countries (Czech Republic, UK, Sweden, Finland) have rate around 5%. Source: OECD
Europe was quicker to realize that the outsourcing is hurting revenues, and cut corporate taxes through this decade to slow the exodus of manufacturing base to China. Further cuts are already approved and will be carried in next two years. Outsourcing is also not main topics of political debate across of Europe like here in USA.
It is not up to me to convince anyone about quality of life here or there. People measure quality different way and have different priorities in their lives anywhere on this planet. However, “it’s the pits except for the super-wealthy” this is valid for every location in this world, USA included. I do know people who came here from Europe and will rather live in trailer of the Rt. 1 or project of Philadelphia, than live in villa in Italy (Prague, Budapest, Munich, etc). This is their choice and their right to do so.
Yes, I do know fellow Virginians do not talk like me, since it will be hard for them to imitate my international accent. Any case, it is state that I like and chose to be my home.
The middle classes in the U.S., despite all the hand-wringing in the media, have a much better life, with much greater opportunities, and are much happier according to all polls including Gallup, than the middle classes in Western Europe.
So, if Katie Couric says we are probably in a recession (as she did last night), does that mean we are *not* in a recession, or what?
Also, point to ponder: what’s the deal with Fox keeping Paul out of their debate, while ABC lets him participate? Could it be because the powers that be at Fox fear he will run as an independent and hurt the Republican nominee, while the suits at ABC *hope* he will run as an independent and hurt the Republican nominee?
Katie went with the weather forecast model
There’s a 50% chance of recession…
And what is the Fox’s debate that Ron Paul is being kicked off?
It seems to be either a) they don’t have enough room for him in the studio, or b) his 10% in Iowa wasn’t enough to warrant a place in the debate.
Here’s an L.A Times article about it:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/should-ron-paul.html
Apparently, the RNC is considering pulling the financing for the event if Fox doesn’t allow him in, and, apparently Fox is sticking to it’s guns.
Fairly Unbalanced - Faux news
I’m glad to see the RNC taking a principaled stand on this. Ron Paul getting to double digits is a huge story in this election - not as big as Huckabee trouncing Romney, but still huge. Fox should be ashamed of themselves. They still claim to be journalists.
or b) his 10% in Iowa wasn’t enough to warrant a place in the debate.
But, somehow, Guiliani at 3% is worthy.
Personally, I think RP is a crank. (His views of science are out to lunch.) However, watching Fox fumble is even more amusing.
“Personally, I think RP is a crank.”
And voting “no” on every bill wouldn’t exactly endear him to the voters. He would be impeached within two years.
It would endear him to this voter!! Gridlock is better than what happens now, and to override they would have to debate and explain a bills merits (and go on record). Not just quietly slide it through as they do now.
We will be headed off into a neo-New Deal soon, and a complete change of guard will be necessary, as in throw the bums out…
All of them.
White House considering stimulus package.
WASHINGTON
The Bush administration, faced with a deteriorating economy and a big jump in unemployment, said Friday it was considering an economic stimulus package that might include tax cuts to ward off a recession.
Officials stressed that President Bush has not decided yet to offer a proposal but was looking at a variety of options with a plan possibly being unveiled around the time of his Jan. 28 State of the Union address.
“The president is always looking at options … always talking to people and looking at data,” Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said in an interview with The Associated Press.
This could be the Video relating to it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY38d1GghgQ
Of course. This is a very cynical thing to do. It will get tied up in Congress and both parties in an election year will blame the other for failing to pass it.
The administration is hoping to stick its index finger up our a$$e$ and wiggle our prostate. I’m thinking their type of stimulus I do not need. If my package needs stimulating I can figure it out myself.
Take that Mole Man!!
“The administration is hoping to stick its index finger up our a$$e$”
But then the administration would have bernanke on their finger.
Not quite. The administration will propose it. tThe dems in Congress will demand a spending cut to offset it. The administration will either grandstand saying that it is a stimulus package and offsetting will keep it from being effective or propose nothing but reductions to s-chip and medicaid or possibly defunding the justice department investigation into the destruction of the torture tapes. After that the exact path gets fuzzy, but it will end in it not being passed and the administration blaming the dems for being tax and spend and the dems blaming the president for being fiscally irresponsible.
Pretty much the result you predict, but the path to get to it will be incredibly messy and take up a great deal of newsprint.
Ok my early comment this morning:
I get Mauldin’s email too. But nobody will seriously consider it from my point of view:
Pres Bush is the greatest president in creating Underground jobs i have even seen. This is why the economy is holding up. I work but pay no taxes . There is an Incredible about of 1099 part time, intern, commission only “jobs” being created.
Even the “intern” jobs flagrantly violate minimum wage laws, expecting you to do real work for the company, for Free or a stipend. Some even expect you to have your own up to date laptop and a blackberry, to work for FREE! Incredible
So rather then tax cuts how about some revenue Enhancement, go after companies who refuse to pay people on the books (1099 scams) or even minimum wage.
And, Cynically i think this is how they intend to “save” Social Security by keeping us off the books so we don’t contribute hardly anything to SS and our checks will be a lot lower FOR LIFE!
“i think this is how they intend to “save” Social Security”
They intend to save SS by letting you draw it and then make as much money as you want per year by going back to work. When you go back to work you will pay SS fee taxes out of your check thereby off setting the SS payout. Most will then work until their late 80’s thinking they are getting a sweet deal while the dregs on SS will milk the system for all the freebees they can get and possibly work in jobs that pay under the counter in cash.
NPR had an interview last week with someone proposing a 1% solution to “save SS” in which SS taxes were raised 1% on the individual and 1% on employers. The accountant spouse next to me screamed and said, “that’s not a 1% increase, its really a 12.5% increase!”
Going after people for these income tax avoidance schemes is the WORST idea ever. The tax is unjust, unconstitutional (for a half dozen reasons), encourages companies to grow bigger instead of paying out profits to share holders, and makes it more profitable to speculate in securities (15% tax) than to contribute real economic work (35%-40% tax). The income tax violates so many natural rights and principles of sound law that I cannot believe it has any support.
I know that it is hard to pay the income tax and see others getting off free, but suggesting that those who escape the income tax need to be punished is like suggesting those that escape being raped need to be raped (because then it would be “fair”).
The underground economy is the FREE MARKET. For the most part, it is only “underground” because of unconstitutional government regulations.
The best way to escape this recession is to reduce taxes and CUT government spending. Why should the government keep on spending while the people are forced to cut back? Imagine what would happen if we ended the income tax and cut spending to match, everyone would instantly make 50% more and the economy would save 300 billion per year spent on income tax “compliance”.
All of a sudden people could greatly simplify their retirement savings. You would no longer need special “tax deferred” accounts etc. The income tax costs something like $0.67 for every $1 it collects and serves as nothing more than an excuse for the government to get into everyones finances.
I agree. It is very simple, yet you have to be able to think past your programing.
The part of your morning rant that engages me most positively is the bit about all the waste “industries” created by the tax code. Armies of accountants, attorneys, tax preparers, etc etc, none actually improving our quality of life.
“Armies of accountants, attorneys, tax preparers, etc etc, none actually improving our quality of life.”
Luckily, we have day traders and Warren Buffets out there improving our quality of life. Where would we be without them…
What I read is Bush wants to cut taxes and have the government borrow more money so people can spend more. If people won’t borrow to spend, damn it, Bush will do it for them.
like start another war? sorry…can’t resisst
ya know nobody can imagine what the pols will do. you only have to imagine the worst thing that could happen to you as a saver. i think it is possible the bush administration would try to “stimulate the economy” by making all interest on debt an allowable deduction for income taxes (temporarily…say til 2012) and then kick it in the pants by giving you a special box that gives you a 30,000 income exemption if you have a mortgage on a house with a payment that is over 30% of your gross income.
that’ll help out the little guy won’t it?
That’ll screw everyone that doesn’t have any debt or pay any interest. Once again, it’ll encourage ppl to take on more debt.
When I hear the phrase “Bush wants to stimulate the economy” I get this vision of his team gathered around the a gurney where the economy lays, Bush has the stimulus paddles in the air, and he says: “Clear”! Scares me cause I’m afraid those paddles are gonna hurt.
ben do you work 24/7 ?
No, but my servers do!
Ben Jones = Hal 9000
The internet is actually HAL 9000.
Imagine if we didn’t have it?
We’d be just as clueless to what’s going on, as in previous smaller real estate bubbles.
Careful… remember what happened to HAL…
Ben as HAL9000 to David Liareah as he frantically tries to unplug the computer “What are you doing, Dave?”
Liareah 9000 to Ben Jones: “Ben, will I dream when I’m asleep?”
Ben: “Of course not, only intelligent things dream.”
Careful, remember what happened to the people that messed with Hal
Gross…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2Mh1M1LhNDo&refer=news
Ya know, this is getting annoying. Econ 101 teaches that recessions are the natural way an economy purges malinvestments. What do supposed big-shots like gross think has changed in the world to repeal that? The Fed is behind the curve, my eye. These Fed watching fools are the biggest economic constipation going.
Now that’s a visual I could have lived without
“Econ 101 teaches that recessions are the natural way an economy purges malinvestments.”
I’d argue that Austrian Econ 101 teaches that lesson, while the Keynesian course teaches otherwise.
“These Fed watching fools are the biggest economic constipation going.”
Thus explaining the selection of Bernanke as Fed Chairman.
The guy runs a company called Pimpco. What can we expect from him?
DC area not different ?
4.5% raise while your city gets a 4.5% cut in the recession- manhattan gets a 10% haircut w bank layoffs
Forecast 2008…
http://www.wrisley.com/kunstler.htm
On the ground out in the heartland, in the anxiety-drenched, over-valued beige subdivisions of California and the ennui-saturated pastel McHousing tracts of Florida (not to mention the pathetic vinyl outlands of Cleveland and Detroit) a mighty keening welled forth as mortgage rates adjusted upward, and loans stopped “performing,” and “for sale” signs failed to turn up buyers, and sheriff’s deputies showed up with the rolls of yellow foreclosure tape, and actual ownership of the re-poed collateral entered a legal twilight zone somewhere north of the Florida State Teacher’s Pension Fund and south of the Norwegian Municipal Councils’ investment portfolios. What a mighty mess was left out there by the boyz at the Wall Street genius desks, who engineered a magical system for eliminating risk from the capital markets
Wow, great stuff!
LIttle Al,
you’re rocking this morning.
…..that was Kunstler
Wow, great stuff!
I’ll say. that was downright poetic.
Yes, I ’bout wept at the beauty of it.
Welcome back, OG.
Not Immune…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/03/AR2008010304053.html?hpid=news-col-blog
Excellent level-headed assessment of the status quo…
“Which brings us, finally, to real estate — commercial as well as residential — which over the past several years has been a major source of jobs, wealth, profits, tax revenue and economic growth for the Washington region. We now know that this was a bubble, fueled by cheap and abundant credit. Now the bubble has burst, and the only question is how long it will take for supply and demand to come back into balance at a price people can afford. “
“…the only question is how long it will take for supply and demand to come back into balance at a price people can afford. “
Well, another question to add might be: How many buyers with stable jobs will there be to buy the new “affordable” homes…when they reach that price level?
All the stops are going to be pulled out in the coming months.
1. Fed lowering rate 100basis points
2. Bush little economic stimulus package…500dollar rebates whoop-de-do
3. Continued bailout of fb’s
Where does all this money come from?
More tiresome, made up BO talk. The Fed just belatedly stuck a fork in the housing bubble. What good does any prop-up measure do at the same time?
There’s a weekend topic for you Ben. “What would the HBBers do with their $500 rebate checks?”
My wife and I would get two of them. We are planning to go to Paris in the fall. What better than to take the money from this phony-bologna government and spend it in Paris? I’m sure I will be called un-American, unlike all of those mortgage brokers, FB morons, Wall Street gangster and political tools that actually got into this mess. I will use my $1,000 to stroll down the Champs-Elysees. “Lick sack, mindless patriot crowd that cheats on your taxes and looks for every opportunity to swindle your neighbor.”
Paris, what a visual and cultural delight. Rome is a must see and experience too.
$500/head will get you neither. Maybe a few cups of coffee, some glasses of wine and a dozen picture postcards.
“$500/head” = 5 weeks of fuel for the family cars
Yeah, $500 is nothing in Europe.
I was in Italy about 10 years ago, pre-Euro. Nice rooms for $80 a night and good meal for $10.
Went back 18 months ago. Same room now $200 a night and if you want to eat for under $30, better find a McDonalds. We REALLY had to scrimp on food. We ate at McDonalds more in that 2 weeks than in 2 years here. And we still ended up paying 2x as much food as planned.
And that was 18 months ago when we were at .78 Eur/$1. Now at .68, so that $200 hotel room is $232 and that $30 meal is now $34.
I’m thinking Bulgaria.
Spent my $500 about a week ago on a hot-air balloon ride cum champagne breakfast in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. Ooops, also paid for my grandnephew, maybe I should hit him up for his tax refund. Oops, he doesn’t get one. Never mind. If they’re giving out $500 I’ll take it
Some of you may remember my question earlier this week on skipping a leg of a flight into Berlin so as to end up in London.
I got some good advice, and sure enough I found an even cheaper flight plan that goes into London from LAX and comes back out of Berlin.
My answer to the $500 question? We’re going to Spain on spring break, with or without it. I’ll use gains from busting HBs.
“and if you want to eat for under $30, better find a McDonalds. We REALLY had to scrimp on food. We ate at McDonalds more in that 2 weeks than in 2 years here. And we still ended up paying 2x as much food as planned.”
Oh please noooooooo! Go to a bakery - get a loaf of wonderous bread. Go to a store - get some cheese. Go to a wine shop - get a great bottle of wine. In Paris get chocolate crepes on the street for dessert. You can eat so well in Europe without ever entering a restaurant. The only things McDonald’s is good for is clean restaurant.
Granted I haven’t been since 1995 but in 1992 I went for 4 months on a $25/day budget - all food, lodging (hostels), entertainment and transportation outside of my Eurail pass. Walked everywhere, ate well and didn’t sleep much but had a blast. Best shape I was ever in, all on bread, cheese and chocolate. (I rarely drink so wasted my wine money on bottle water.) Eat like the natives - almost always cheaper and more of an experience and the BEST bread in the world!
“The only things McDonald’s is good for is clean restaurant.”
Whoops. Tha should read clean restrooms! (Just a slight difference.
)
I’m going to stockpile some gasoline in the back 40.I should be able to buy 500/3.25= 154 gallons of saudi oil.Show me the money!!!!!!!
I was in Paris last summer and Stockholm. That $500 should buy you a couple of meals at the McDonalds on the Champs-Elysses (be sure to sit up stairs, its a nice view to eat your $20 big mac).
I’ll use it to offset some of the losses in my “nowhere to hide from what’s going to happen” 401K.
Good point GPB, when everyone holds onto any cash they have, hello deflationary depression.
That $500.00 will possibly be just like that one he “gave out” early in his admin..but all it was was a portion of next years taxes. So it was nothing but a bogus scam.
$500.00 rebate not nearly enough, I am looking for $10,000.00 so we can get this ball rolling again! : - )
I’m going to pay down a few debts. I know, I know. it’s unAmerican of me. I’m sorry.
Roidy
2. Bush little economic stimulus package…500dollar rebates whoop-de-do
That’ll go a long way toward a $2500 house payment.
“Subprime” voted 2007 word of the year
http://www.americandialect.org/
Candidates for 2008: Homedebtor?, FB?
Covenant lite
Covenant ‘lite’ loans attract buy-out groups
By Paul J Davies in London
Published: April 10 2007 19:54 | Last updated: April 10 2007 19:54
Growing numbers of private equity groups are looking to protect their investments against a potential downturn by trying to strip out the covenants that protect lenders when businesses begin to underperform.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e2bcbcbc-e790-11db-8098-000b5df10621.html
How do you strip out the covenants on “covi-lite” loans? I thought the only covenant was “there are no covenants”??
counterparty risk
I think people everywhere, including this blog, are seriously delusional about the level of counter-party risk in this system. The most stable, conservative and well-thought strategies always rely on the counter-parties to guarantee the other side of the transaction be that buying apple juice or hedging X or Y. Ignoring the counter-party risk is like playing with matches at the gas station that is taking delivery of gasolite right that moment.
s/gasolite/gasoline
Investors may see dividends disappear
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080105/wall_main.html?.v=2
I hope so, maybe then they’ll realize what sort of management the firms they’ve invested in have.
OT, but was anyone else blinded by Chuck Norris’s teeth during Huckabee’s victory speech?
I had to avert my eyes…
Does anybody truly believe that this country wants another evang for a leader?
You are out to sea for 6 months and you finally get into port. You walk into the nearest bar. First thing you see in the barroom is Kathy Bates, Rosie O’Donnell, Rosanne Barr, Billie Jean-King, Madeleine Albright, Eleanor Clift and Barbara Bush. You are told you have to go home with one of them.
That is what this cast of candidates reminds me of.
Can anyone confirm, that Obama is a muslum?
He’s not a Muslim. However, for some perspective on his “spin” capabilities, check this out.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=431908&in_page_id=1770
Can anyone confirm that Hill is a womyn?
I’m recalling that guy whose book Oprah promoted, “A Thousand Little Pieces”. Turned out to have been based on some lies and everyone made a big deal over it and raked him over the coals for lying and spinning. He had to go on her show and apologize.
Think Bama will get the same treatment? I’m not holding my breath.
Nope. From his bio:
“His wife, Michelle, and his two daughters, Malia, 9, and Sasha, 6, live on Chicago’s South Side where they attend Trinity United Church of Christ.”
Yeah…for how long did they attend is my question.
That story about Obama’s father is interesting, but that Obama felt he had to sansitize and recast the story into a little fable about America is very troubling. Lots of Americans grew up amid parental infidelities and divorces–no real shocker there. It does suggest that he really doesn’t trust his fellow citizens with the truth, which as we’ve seen, is very dangerous in a president.
Palmy is right–where is Oprah with her outrage on this one?
Ah, c’mon, ’sins of the father’ and all that.
Its not his fault his dad turned out to be a drunken a$$hole, and his mother could have done him a favour by not sugar-coating her relationship with him (Obama Sr).
If anything, it makes Obama Jr more human - no child wants to deal with their parent’s ‘Feet Of Clay’.
BTW: IIRC, his father’s family is largely Muslim - a sizeable religious minority in Kenya. However, as he has chosen Christianity, and does not follow the edicts of Islam, he is not Muslim himself.
I would be a bit surprised if his father’s extended family was Muslim. That isn’t all that common amoung the Luo. The Luo are based in western Kenya and the Muslim part of Kenya is along the coast (e.g. Mombasa).
That’s quite a list, Eleanor Clift the most attractive???
Maybe if you are trying to attract vultures.
that is one scary list of choices
where do you come up with this stuff? very funny
Terry
I asked that same question to “Intelligent Design” leader Hugh Ross yesterday on my morning jog. He classified Obama as a liberal Christian (gave his testimony in Iowa two days ago). Huckabee said “I can’t put a date on the age of the world” So he has educated Christians in an uproar.
Yeah, when David Brooks mentioned last evening that Huckabee doesn’t believe in Darwinian evolution, I realized I would have to vote for any Dem over Huckabee. Hold nose, pull lever.
I really like the idea of trapping evangs, by asking them about evolution….
In the end, it’s the political death knell for them.
Two things…
1) I do not think Huck will get nomination in any case
2) Democrats and Repubicans have two very different but none the less very nasty issues to deal with… For democrats, the fundamental issue is that Obama is inexperienced, charismatic and black, which makes him unelectable at this time against any reasonable qualitied candidate from Republican in general election no matter what the primaries show. To avoid situation where inexperienced candidate get nomination by party loonies followed by a sound beating in general election, Democrat party created super-delegates that control about 40% of the votes. The super-delegates job is to make sure Democrat party loonies do not wrestle control away from existing dem machine. These delegates are going to vote for Hillary Clinton, no matter what the pledged delegates do. Should such delegates not vote for the machine, the delegates themselves will be out of job ( remember, super delegates are members of the machine ). So you are gong to have a situation where unless Hillary solidly beats Obama in primaries, her nomination would come based on her gigantic lead in super-delegates. Where does it leave Obama, his supporters and his enormous fundraising power (remember, unlike Shillary, he has large number of donors making small donations , which means he can raise a lot more money from the same people )? The answer is simple - create a new party and go for “third party” run.
… at the same time
3) Iowa did not deliver a knock-out punch between the eyes to Ron Paul, allowing him to remain in the quest for Republican nomination for at few more months. While he won’t be able to get GOP nomination, he will be able to get a significant amount of money between now and GOP convention….
which brings us to the second part… if by May-June we have a significant visible contraction in the economy with housing prices dropping by another 10%, construction spending dropping like a rock and business activity visible slowing down then Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate as well. So here is what we end up with:
Democrat candidate - Clinton with position “Socialism for everyone but folks like me!”
Democrat independent - Obama with position “I was the true winner in the primaries!”
GOP candidate - Guliani or McCain or Thompson or Romney with a position “Life is good, you are just too whiny to realize it”
GOP independent - Paul with a position “This all sucks, lets pretend it is still beginning of XX century”
Im gonna have to start looking into the 4 party system.
problem:
which party am I supposed to belong to in order to have a vote against in preliminary voting methodology.
The “no” vote, within the machine that you think is broken.
Saving the dry powder for the “yeah” vote when the machine must tabulate to spit out said winnner.
After the last election, I would think everyone would begin to have a heightened sense of how much the vote matter is dark similiar to the financial dark matter currently escaping the bowels of treasury and FED…
not only do Americans vote with their feet (choosing a States that suit the individual family unit), they vote with money (allowing candidates to expose themselves to the people with big budget advertising).
when i share the thoughts its not arrogance, its understanding.
to fully grasp the importance of voting, you must first start with the no vote, the vote against.
The no vote, or the vote against manifests in the form of registering in the opposing party, and using the yes vote for the weakest, most unelectable, sorry canidate on the primary ballot. Only to be utilized in rare form of the educated populace as a risk scenario of everyone performing this strategy creates a weakest candidate general ballot.
You are told you have to go home with one of them.
Now there’s a version of Leisure Suit Larry I’m glad I missed.
All I know is that after one whole year and another year to go with these idiots campaigning, there’s not one of them I want to see for 4 more years after that. I’m sick and tired of all of them already.
If only “none of the above” were a choice on the ballot….
“Investors may see dividends disappear”
I thought they basically already had (through shrinkage)?
Let us ponder which companies will be cutting their dividends.
C
BAC
WM
WB
WFC
MDC
KBH
And oh so many more. I have people around me that want to buy the bank stocks because the dividends now look so attractive. I ask them about the possibilities that those dividends get cut. “Deer meet headlights.”
I too have some friends that are jumping back in to the financials. I tell them to think what will happen if the price of homes goes down 20% nationally.
“Headlights meet deer.”
What I can’t figure out is why “the market” thinks selling off huge chunks of these companies to foreign investment dudes is a good idea. If I was a stockholder, I’d be furious they sold so much stock for so little money - it just dilutes me, and will inevitably lead to a dividend reduction, assuming their profit margins remain the same (doubtful!).
The vehicle behind the headlights seems to be an 18 wheeler, well protected by “roo-bars”.
Would you prefer them to do a capital call?
Add RF
I believe it was BAC that bought CFC stock at $18 and change a few months ago. What a wise move that was!
How many of that ended up in the IRA accounts that BOA manages?
He looked like a porn star out of the 70’s.Were did he come from anyway?
Palmie: You must admit that Chuck and his wife are easier on the eyes than Huckabee’s own family, and Huck knows it too.
Chucks teeth areon the luminous side.
I noticed them myself.
However I also had visions of him reaching out of my TV screen to hold my gently by the throat for thinking such things.
After all:
Chuck Norris destroyed the periodic table, because he only recognizes the element of surprise
(Taken from the fabulous http://www.chucknorrisfacts.com/)
‘After all:
Chuck Norris destroyed the periodic table, because he only recognizes the element of surprise ‘
LMAO
Foto of Huck’s son in Newsweek was model for slack-jawed cooter dullard. Wife reminds me of the ladies in the WalMart parking lot in Quad Cities, IL……. Very much scary. Ok, I’m evil….. but accurate
I made an anecdotal comment last night about Moody’s. I just wanted to point out that things are as bad as you would think they are at the ratings agency. I see Vozworth makes some arrogant comment about the little guy and losing money. WTF?
voz was a little tipsy, we are all little guys. We are all subprime.
Im just trying to get others thinking about what it means to involved in whatever process one may think is important.
As the MSM has finally admitted the bubble has burst, where do we go from here?
“As the MSM has finally admitted the bubble has burst, where do we go from here?”
The responsible need to keep being responsible. I am not changing anything. I was born a tortoise and will remain a tortoise until the day I die.
“The responsible need to keep being responsible.”
got that all you specuvestors, sub-prime, alt-A, option ARM, ZERO downers….keep paying up, or its curtains.
slow and steady will win the race.
However, a knee to the groin every so often is good to shake up the natives.
I want to be sure Stucco sees this. It will get the little green men running around in his head
Goldilocks Gets Her Foreclosure Notice
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/overstated-jo-1.html
Goldilocks has a wicked case of crabs. Nothing some gasoline and a match won’t cure.
Orange County Home Prices and Sales-
Sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 44.1
The median sales price decreased 7.0 percent.” (”For the 22 business days ending Dec. 14)
http://www.ocregister.com/money/ocregister-www-median-1952525-sales-http
This shows a continuation of a medium sales price slide from Aug ‘07. But in the same on line article we find:
Realtor Watts Eyes Pent-up Housing Demand - January 4th, 2008
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/04/realtor-watts-eyes-pent-up-housing-demand/
The best part of this article are the 88+ responses that follow. This guy could be working at Walmart any day now.
Snaith is back! Woo-hoo!
http://www.sptimes.com/2008/01/05/Worldandnation/Jobs_sink__worries_ri.shtml
“Snaith said the increase in unemployment might even have a bright side, giving the Federal Reserve Board a reason to cut interest rates again at the end of this month, perhaps as much as half a percentage point.”
The increase in unemployment may have a bright side? Inflation?
We are now at 50 basis points for the hopes for the next cut. We all know that it will have no impact on stopping this disaster. But the zealots still have their zeal.
The Fed is becoming more and more like Barney Fife. They have one bullet in their shirt pocket. And their aim stinks.
Here is a Snaith roundup:
“This past year has been sort of the ‘the morning after’ of the housing boom,”
“But we’re still in the [prediction] mode of a soft landing for the economy. The way we put it: ‘The runway has lengthened for when we take off again.’ ”
“People have been predicting an apocalypse. I see more of rapture than an apocalypse,”
“Every party must come to an end,”
Gov. Charlie Crist want to turn us into a state full of star-bellied Sneetches, favored over their non-star-bellied counterparts? That’s the suggestion of Sean Snaith, director of the UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness.
“You’re running to stand still when you have that kind of growth rate,”
“We will continue to grow in Florida, which is what is keeping the state moving forward.”
“We haven’t seen the wholesale spreading of the housing doom and gloom into the other sectors,”
“Unfortunately, one of the cliches is that time heals all wounds — and this is something I think applies here,”
“We’ve got a lot of long-term drivers in place that will support housing: Baby boomers retiring, 40-year-low mortgage rates, strong personal income, low unemployment.”
“It was not a housing bubble, but a housing souffle,” Snaith said. “If some of the key ingredients in the souffle were missing, it would go flat. But it was not a bubble.”
——————————————–
My 410k is at -1.0% for 2008. Who can top that? I’m guessing it would have been much worse if I wasn’t sitting on the sidelines.
I have a co-worker that always says, “buy index funds and hold forever”. I tell him I would rather wait for the market to make its natural fall before I commit so much. He disagrees. Of course he has been wrong on EVERYTHING macro the past two years. He wanted to buy a house in Connecticut last year and I told him he was nuts. He said the economy would be good because Countrywide was still hiring. The next day they laid off 10,000 people.
Yesterday I told him he must be ecstatic because he had so many more buying opportunities after the day’s calamity. He didn’t think it was as funny as I did. I am now being labeled a “socialist”. I don’t get that one. I know we are entering into the market timing debate but I can definitely wait this all out and see how it goes. I’m in no hurry to commit every penny to this market.
I sold off my 401k in March, and switched it into mellow yellow…
The stocks that were in it are off 18%, Gold’s up 35%
I did the same except went into bonds - so I am up only about 6.7%. But I do sleep well at night.
With the emotional support of this blog, I did the same thing in March, WAman. In July I wondered if I had moved to soon. Nope.
Sold off my 401k at the high of 13,800+ in Nov and it is sitting in CU. What to do for future, Roth? not as adept as txchk and others in mkt.but learning.
Many top policymakers are currently working hard behind the scenes to make your friend look smart for yearning to go long house and stocks. Imagine how this episode would play out if everyone started thinking about sitting on the sidelines to see how things turn out before commiting any more pennies and you will quickly understand why.
Economy to strengthen later in the year: US
Published: Saturday, 5 January, 2008, 02:58 AM Doha Time
WASHINGTON: The White House said yesterday that the US economy was “mixed” and should strengthen later in the year once it was past the worst of the housing market slump and steep oil prices.
“The economy is expected to be stronger in the latter half of the year,” White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. “I think that’s reflective of what private-sector forecasts are also showing as we work through this transition in housing and dealing with higher energy prices.”
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=193916&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
I can’t wait for the second half of ‘08. I keep hearing it is going to be “grrrrreeeeeaaaaatttt”. Could they possibly be wrong yet again?
Interesting twist: Last year, it was HP and BB saying “subprime is contained.” So far this year, it is the WH press secretary doing the talking.
Sorry — mis-spoke — “WH spokesman”
sounds like gary watts to me.
I’m up a bit over 10%. Rode the stock bubble until July, then got dumb lucky and switched to treasuries just in time for yields on the 10 year to fall from 5.25 to under 4.
Now I wish there was somewhere to go to hold onto the purchasing power of that gain.
This was posted yesterday in Bits Buckets - I found this story poignant - and think it deserves more attention than it probably got yesterday as it was posted later -
Do posters here believe in this almost enema type effect?
Why do only a few people seem to heed history and avoid the mistakes of the past while most people skip down the golden brick road?
Some things to ponder……
__________________________________________________________
Comment by dagan68
2008-01-04 10:56:10
I am 41 years old. My grandmother is now 91. She is as sharp as she was when she was 18.
This is a woman - whose parents lived in the big “McMansion” - in Oklahoma in the 1920s - whose parents then lost everything they had in the early 1930s - whose parents took her and her 8 brothers and sisters to a very small shack in Tulsa so my previously well-off great grandfather could work 12 hour shifts for 6 days a week in a refinery for minimum wage. Before it was over - all of the kids were sent to live with wealthy people to be indentured slaves for 1-2 dollars a week. This is the same grandmother whose twin brother was killed on Iwo Jima. This is the same grandmother whose older brother was killed on D-Day.
I had the privilege of taking my grandma to the store over Christmas. I just love to sit and soak up all the wisdom. While in the store, a 30ish young woman was in line in front of us - with two of the most hideous vases I have ever seen in my life. When the total rang up $750 I almost dropped my jaw. Then, she proceeded to go through 5 credit cards - all declined. That was not enough - for to escalate her humilation, she began calling the innocent cashier all kinds of names - until the man behind her called her out. Nevertheless - I was stunned. My grandma got back in the car - and the tears began to flow. SON - I never ever would have dreamed I would have heard myself say this - but this country NEEDS another depression in the worst way.
That is representative of her wisdom - and I will always love and cherish her and her husband - granddad - for they made certain that their grandchildren would survive should it happen again - I thank God every day for them. I still hear them everyday “Debt is sinful. Your house is NOT an investment. Work hard - then play hard. Have just one luxury in life. Life is more than things and money. Remember - give to the man on the street - he may be an angel in disguise watching to see what you will do. Do not eat luxuriously in life while your neighbors are starving. It is better for you to eat food that you have raised yourself - you appreciate it more. Do unto others as you would do for yourself. The most important thing in your life is your family.” My sisters and brothers and I are ready - but I look out on the great majority of my peers and realize that this is going to get very very ugly.
Thanks grandma - I love you.
Thanks for the anecdote, Dagan68. I wish there were more people around with the history your grandmother has.
Excellent!
I’m quite a fan of oral history, as it tells me how the average person was effected by historical events of any nature.
History books tell the big picture, individual history tells the small picture…
My grandmother passed at 104, another GD survivor. You were a bit wiser, in that you listened to the stories without the yawns. Nevertheless, I got the jest of the lessons. Aren’t wise grandmas priceless.
One of my favorite books, in an oral history vein…
An amazing collection of stories of Canadians, that lived through the Great Depression.
http://www.amazon.com/Ten-Lost-Years-1929-1939-Depression/dp/0771016522
Another excellent one by the same author, but about World War 2, and Canadian memories of it…
http://www.amazon.com/Six-War-Years-1939-1945-Canadians/dp/0770104436
Thank you for the links. I will try to get my hands on a copy of the Depression book.
Studs Terkel should also be added to your reading list.
I’ve read Stud’s books and they are good, just not in the same league as Barry Broadfoot’s…
Have to agree with you on that. I have been giving Barry Broadfoot books as gifts to family for some time now.
They don’t always listen. Maybe by reading these they might start to learn.
“…So we had all these crusts from the bread, and the word got around Vancouver that Alice, that’s me, was putting them in brown bags and giving them out at the door on the lane. I am not telling you any lie when I say I have seen as many as 100 men lined up there about 7 o’clock, closing time, waiting for the crusts. These were starving men, and I’m telling the truth when I say I’ve seen men pass out, just fall over.”
One of hundreds of stories of the Great Depression, from the book “Ten Lost Years”
We lost our Grandma this week at the age of 90 - sharp as a tack until her last breath. She taught the same lessons about living within your means, helping others (not organizations!), be a loyal patriot but not a sheep following some political nut, take care of your soul, make family the center of your life, charity starts at home, Premack Prinicple [work first; play later], don’t borrow, buy used save the difference, lease depreciating assets. God we are going to miss her but she taught us well.
My grama is 88. Born in 1919. She talks about being one of the fortunate ones in the depression. He dad owned a farm in MI with no debt, so they always had food and were never at risk of eviction. They didn’t get new things much, but they had a roof and food.
Aside, she counts herself as one of the lucky ones…. but her mom died of influenza when she was 13. Being the oldest of 7, she had to drop out of school and run the house (doing all laundry, preparing all meals, etc.) .
And I count myslef a victim of life simply because my mom died when I was 15. My generation simply doesn’t have the same points of reference for hardship.
My Dad was forntuate enough to be raised on a small farm in Iowa during the Depression. Life was hard but they ate a lot better than most people. He loved farm life except for killing animals. He was one of the best natural shots with a rifle I ever knew although he never would hunt as an adult after the war.
My Grandpaw used to love baked rabbit pies that my Grandmother would make him and the family. He would ISSUE my Dad 3 bullets for the farm rifle and if the number of poor dead bunnies DIDN’T match the number of spent rounds, my Dad would have plenty of explaining as to why he had missed.
The farm country maxim that young boys were good shots and didn’t waste bullets on the farms during the Depression probably saved the lives of a lot of young GI’s that were drafted into WWII.
I missed an easy bunny shot for Grandpaw’s pies when I was 11 yrs old and I had to hear these stories from BOTH of them …and my Grandma
My grandfather owned large storage units and he lost them during the depression, because people had no need to store things they had to sell off to buy food. However my grandmother kept them going through the depression so they could eat and keep the house. She was a beautician and had the shop at their house. Guess women got their hair done, no matter what.
Dagan,
Rememner to get grandma in a room with some sort of audio recorder while you still can. I made my dad do it and most of his stories are about “fighting” the cold war in Europe and the middle east in the 60’s. They are fun and fascinating, but don’t have the same value as everyday life lessons that your grandmother’s do.
Don’t know of they have them here, but in the UK there’s an Oral History Centre that does just that.
I heard a fascinating programme on BBC Radio 4 a few years back, about how long the oral history memory can be.
They interviewed an old lady, who told stories that her grandmother had heard from HER grandmother (5 generations, or grt-grt-grt-grandmother), describing life during the Napoleonic Wars, almost 200 years ago (1803 - 1814).
I can do you one better.
My dad, now 70, tells a story of sitting at the knee of his great grandmother. She was very old at the time. She told of life on the farm in southern Indiana when she was young, and what it was like during the American Civil War (c. 1860). He remembers a spinning wheel in the room, though he doesn’t remember anyone having used it.
Better yet, his great grandmother told him that her great grandmother had told her similar stories - only of the American Revolution. (c. 1770)
Folks in my family live a long time.
Precious indeed.
Rememner to get grandma in a room with some sort of audio recorder while you still can.
Wish I’d been able to do that with my great grandmother who died at 102 1/2. She was 5 when Lincoln was inaugurated. It awed me, because at 15 it never really seemed to me that Lincoln actually existed.
GGgma rode horse with baby son to Illinois to meet with Lincoln. Written up in newspaper. Got letters too.
Thanks for the posting…I agree, we need a national psyche adjustment.
“…It is better for you to eat food that you have raised yourself”
My resolution this year…and thinking I’m going to increase it…what’s that line about growing enough…so some can fall to the ground and some can just “disappear”?
Also, I’m of the mind set that: made in China: is a “warning” label
My MIL is 93 and lives with us. She sold her home in LA five years ago for nearly 2 mil and her husband, who was a CEO for a large insurance co, left her with the best insurance on the planet. As a depression-era survivor, she drives me crazy with her collection of plastic bags, string, rubber bands, twist ties, and dinner left-overs. There are two things she will indulge: getting her hair done once a week, and going out to dinner once every other week. Even if there is a tablespoon of food left, she insists that it be safed, and so the refrigerator is packed with science experiments from dinners a week ago. She tells stories of having one dress to wear to school, and one for Sunday. Even though she has spent the last 60 years in LA, she tells everyone that she is a farm girl from Kansas. I have recorded many stories from her past, and it seems the older she gets, the tighter she is. I tell my daughters to pay attention because they may have to do without, but somehow, they don’t believe me…
My grandparents were born at the turn of century, and they made it rather well through GD. However, they were never willing to go to any debt and paid everything in cash. I used to listen to stories of WWI and WWII all the time, and how difficult time it was. People lost all their savings in banks, stock market, insurances. They were never willing to invest money into this. They had some cash somewhere in the house in case the bank would collapse. People who went through GD were scared for entire life and appreciated the job they had. Generations in 2008 do not know value of employment, money, and goods; since they could live off plastic and not to worry about anything else.
But you’re not a native English speaker - where was this?
Great Depression was international phenomenon, and hit every corner around the planet. Every country was affected, but there were significant differences between them. A few were hard hit as USA; and since 1935, many countries were preparing for war, which helped to end recession sooner than USA. We have term for this boom as Armament Economic Miracle that ended with German’s conquest of Europe. My grandparents were born what constituted Austria-Hungary monarchy at that time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Vgu8jYTQQo
OK, I trust you. Where do I sign?
–
Bloomberg: “Worst Start For the Dow Since 1904”
Holy Pig!
S&P 500 has given up all the gain of 2007 in the first three trading days. It closed at the same level as on 12/22/06.
What if 2008 ends up being the worst year since 1904? And 2009 worse than 2008! Who knows how long can the record continue.
Personally, it feels good, or lucky, to take care of after-tax annual expenses in the first three days of trading, at least on paper.
It could turn out to be the case of easy come easy go.
I have been forecasting depression during 2008-10 and I feel confident about that forecast based on the recent developments in the economy. During 2008-10, I expect all major indexes to be down more than ten times the losses in the first three trading days of 2008 and my long-term puts should make 20-30 times more than what they have done in the first three trading days of 2008, up 29%. It has been a game of patience and I do have a lot of it. Otherwise, it is tough to be a bear.
Jas
My spring puts are in the stratosphere. I tossed a bit of it back trying to bottom fish yesterday but risk management keeps losses small. I have a terrible urge to sell them on Monday though.
what do you think monday holds? after yesterdays bloodbath
it could get really ugly or uncle ben could cough and away we go. what do you think?
We’ve never had follow through to a Friday like yesterday since 1987. No reason to think this will be any different although if there’s a nuclear sized cockroach out there to be released this weekend, this could be the time. Market sure traded as if there was one yesterday.
TxChick,
Sorry, can you explain what you mean by “we’ve never had follow through to a Friday like yesterday since 1987″
There have been dozens of horrendous Fridays since the crash in ‘87. Everyone gets all beared up and waits for “Black Monday” but it never happens. Usually the mkt gaps down and then recovers or gaps up, comes down to shake those people out and makes a low in the first half of the day. I don’t see any reason why it won’t do that again Monday unless there’s an exogenous event. As long as the s&p holds that 1400 area + or - a bit, there should be a short term recovery. I kind of like the cycle stuff and am thinking about a high in late Feb or early March like in 2000.
So will you exit your puts on the gap down?
“I don’t see any reason why it won’t do that again Monday unless there’s an exogenous event.”
Well for the last 6 years, American’s have been conditioned to live in “fear”: fear of bird virus, fear of shoe bombs, fear of weather conditions, fear of I.D. theft, fear of interest rate resets, fear of each other…what happens when “fear” is applied to the stock market mind set?
Still waiting for… the rain to hail moment & Interest rates @ 14%
You remember the “duct tape bottom” in March of ‘03? There were plenty of bears looking for another leg down there.
Dude: yeah, probably. See how things look.
Thanks, TX, for your historical perspective. I can’t wait to see what happens on Monday in the markets and on Tuesday in New Hampshire.
Jas -
Do you own a bunker in Tehachapi?
I sure hope you are wrong on the depression call, I still don’t see it. A severe recession is guaranteed and I am ready for that, a depression - give me directions to your bunker…
–
“I sure hope you are wrong on the depression call, I still don’t see it.”
Hello Crispy,
If enough people could “see it” it wouldn’t happen! People learn to behave irresponsibly because depression can’t happen, but it does happen at least once in a lifetime.
Did you know that but for Pushing Debt, at a rate much greater than historical norm as % of GDP, the economy would already be in depression since 1997 and deflation since 2003? Once the Debt Push on households ends, and it must always do, the depression will be automatic. It will be caused by depressed demand. Do we need more homes, more cars, more to eat, more TVs, more clothes, more shoes,.. ?
It Is the Debt, Stupid! (And there are consequences of abuse of debt at a grand scale).
Jas
PS: I have an ex-Marine neighbor, fully loaded with ammo and very good friend, ready to take care of any trouble in the neighborhood with very few people.
“PS: I have an ex-Marine neighbor, fully loaded with ammo and very good friend, ready to take care of any trouble in the neighborhood with very few people”
LOL!!
A second rifle in the hood would give you guys the benefit of triangulazation which would raise your kill-ratio immensely. Just sayin.
I prefer a two pronged dog approach.
My two legged beast (yeah I have a two legged dog) stays inside and alerts to movements near the house, while the 90 pound ROTTIE waits for the signal that danger is imminent.
both rescued wounded animals….
see voz has a heart of gold (course its buried in the back forty)
A second rifle in the hood would give you guys the benefit of triangulazation which would raise your kill-ratio immensely.
Especially with a few Abakans.
Jas, what would you say the chances are that this will get bad enough that “they” push the reset button through asset confiscations?
Interesting chart…
http://bp0.blogger.com/_W6m7KqxS0j0/R373IsmSI_I/AAAAAAAAA4w/r-rWIdsH6PE/s1600-h/URch12m.bmp
Here is the comment which led me to the above chart. This dude has some interesting graphical analysis on his blog.
I pointed out last week that an increase in the Unemployment rate had recessionary implications. At 5% It MEANS recession is here!
You can see this graphically at “Unemployment Threshold”
http://www.wrahal.blogspot.com
Comment by Will Rahal - January 4, 2008 at 11:27 am
FHA Reforms
NAR successfully lobbied for the passage of H.R. 1852, the Expanding American Homeownership Act of 2007, which helps modernize FHA by expanding the availability of safe and affordable FHA-backed loans for purchases and refinances. The bill includes provisions to eliminate the 3% down payment requirement, increase loan limits up to 175% of the conforming limit in high-cost areas, streamline condominium purchases, and eliminate the cap on Home Equity Conversion mortgages (HECMs). The Senate Banking Committee passed a similar bill.
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae Reform
NAR also successfully lobbied for passage of H.R. 1427, the Federal Housing Financing Reform Act of 2007, which overhauls the regulatory structure of the nation’s housing finance government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). H.R. 1427 provides for regional adjustments to the caps on mortgages the GSEs may buy for high-cost areas, helping more working families qualify for safer GSE loans. The House passed H.R. 1427, 313-104.
Comment by Anonymous - January 4, 2008 at 11:45 am
Although these seem like big guns in the War on Savers, we can hope they will be largely ineffective, just sucking in a few knife-catching FBs. Just making the 50% drop in 08 more “unlikely” (recalling discussion of a few days ago) so that the banking system can continue to appear to operate normally. Just slowing down the freight train of destruction.
“Just slowing down the freight train of destruction.”
this is just part of the process, outright capitulation would cause the greatest harm culminating in severe panic, and that is far too dangerous to ponder.
The rate cut drumbeat, and the FED following the bond market down is how the train wrecks real slow like… As well as the stimulus from DC…
start connecting the dots… expect some pushing and shoving, forced selling, and liqudations.
Update for any who remember this discussion on Thurs - my landlord backed down from raising our rent. Of course we’re going to see what else is out there, and who knows they may come down even more.
They are in a worse position than they would have been had they just offered to renew the lease at the same rent. Now they have to wait around for us to make a decision.
Mine raised our rent 25% late last year and we’re paying it. Very irritating but not as irritating as moving.
25% is insane, as bad as moving is i would tell the ll to pound sand. well my lease is up 5/15/08 we shall see
Ouch, 25%! Our rent was already high, we had been grumbling about it and talking about moving before they tried to raise it.
I can’t believe you of all people would put up with a 25% raise in your rent. Are you one of those people who is a cougar on the internet but a lamb in person?
A renter can at least afford a 25% increase and do the cost-benefit analysis of moving. And of course it depends on how much the rent was to begin with. In California it would be $500, in Texas it might be only $250.
strange to hear the bull case on increasing rents..
present company notwithstanding.
I don’t want to move yet. It’s worth it to pay more temporarily.
Is it as hard to find housing in TX with a bunch of dogs as it is here?
Yes and that is the reason.
“Now they have to wait around for us to make a decision.”
Are you gonna let them twist for a bit?
Of course!
Good job, clue. You got some good advice from the HBB. I’m glad you don’t have to move.
“You who prattle that morality is social and that man would need no morality on a desert island—it is on a desert island that he would need it most. Let him try to claim, when there are no victims to pay for it, that a rock is a house, that sand is clothing, that food will drop into his mouth without cause or effort, that he will collect a harvest tomorrow by devouring his stock seed today—and reality will wipe him out, as he deserves; reality will show him that life is a value to be bought and that thinking is the only coin noble enough to buy it.”
John Galt
write it down:
FRANKFURT, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Troubled German bank IKB (IKBG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) faces the threat of further writedowns on its own loan portfolio in addition to the impact of the U.S. subprime crisis, Germany’s Focus magazine reported.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL0529267320080105
But Bu, But real estate is local….
FYI: Posting for DC get-together is in the FL thread (ie, the east-coast thread.) Please post there if interested.
- Median San Diego county SFR listing price is currently = $500,000 (down 16.5 percent from $599,000 as of April 2007)
- The annualized rate of decline in median SFR list price is ((500/599)^(12/9)-1)*100 = 21.4 percent since last April.
- Over 200 SFRs on ziprealty.com’s used SFR inventory are currently offered between $499,000 and $500,000
Wake me up to go house hunting when the median hits $300,000.
Thanks for the info PB - numbers that will make even the bulliest bull sit up and take notice!
3 months from now there will be over 1000 used houses between $416,000 and $417,000. 1 year later banks will be auctioning them off at half price for 200K. This housing market is a steaming pile of crap sliding down hill. Don’t bother trying to catch the falling knives for at least 2 years!
This is a prediction I will watch…
forget all this recession talk american idol starts up in a few days
all is well in america
saw an old friend last night-
well her and her husband took a vacation to fla and guess what?
they got a great deal on a house, a vacation house(oh boy)
well they were asking 329 and they offered 272k and were accepted
without a word. i just said congrats and said i had to run
1st offer accepted=you paid too much
fyi 30 min north of west palm beach
and here is the kicker she has a coop in queens to sell
anyone interested?
one last thing she works for citibank!!
Sounds like there is about to be a pretty good deal in Queens if that’s your bag.
Elderly friends of my MIL went to FL and were there 3 days and put an offer in on a house. She said they said they got a good deal because this guy was from Canada and wanted to sell and go back there. I told her we’ll see how good the deal is 6 months from now when the house is worth 15-20% less than they just paid. House was in Lakeland FL.
The Mortgage Pigmen made me do it
“Rite Aid is closing all but one of its 29 Nevada drug stores and selling patient prescription files there to Walgreen as it focuses on core U.S. markets.”
–WSJ
Just say no to pharmaceutical drugs?
Interesting eye-witness account of a mass exodous from AZ.
A colleague driving through the Tuscon area reported bumper to bumper traffic heading south toward Mexico, mostly pickup trucks packed with household possessions. She said she had an “Ah-Ha!” moment when she later found out about the new AZ state law imposing sanctions on businesses using illegal labor.
Were anyone of them in Atlas moving vans?
I”ll betcha many of those vehicles still have notes against them. Lets see the repo man find them in Mexico.
Written over a century ago, it still rings true today…
We’ve been talking about them for years, The Crowd.
http://www.amazon.com/Crowd-Gustave-Bon/dp/0486419568
i saw this and my eyes poped out of my head!! how many readers will fall for this lie?? did the price of fuel drop to?
Investor’s Business Daily
Economy - Friday
Friday January 4, 6:31 pm ET
Investor’s Business Daily
U.S. inflationary pressures easing
The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge dropped to 117.1 in Dec. from 119.8 in Nov., according to Economic Cycle Research Institute. The future inflation index dropped to a 31-month low, signaling that inflation pressures should not be a serious concern. ECRI cited disinflationary moves in commodity prices, loans, jobs and interest rates.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080104/econbrief.html?.v=1
falling dollar.
in order to quantify how the metric works to your advantage, imagine a world in which this is positive for Americans who have saved (what form of saving?). I know this does not make sense, but how can these shapers of expectations make strong in-roads to euphoric feelings about Economic expansion?
Imagine the Fed trying to drop interest rates 1/2 point or more against a backdrop of news that oil prices and gold prices had inflated to triple their values of just a few years ago. Then you will understand why inflation must be contained.
Police clear marijuana factory in estate house
“DRUG producers in Northamptonshire have been dealt another blow after police officers uncovered a cannabis factory capable of turning over almost £10,000 worth of the substance each week.
The unexpected find came following a tip-off from a member of the public who reported seeing suspicious activity in a four-bedroom, semi-detatched house on the Grange estate in Daventry.”
http://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/news/Police-clear-marijuana-factory-in.3643328.jp
Marijuana factory?
Manufacturing is Up, way up as in HIGH.
I did want to get a garden started..mostly tomatoes, now I think ouffffffffffffffffffffffffff…holding breath..no wait…puuuuufffffffff What was I saying?
Trust the Northampton Chronicle to confuse marijuana and cannabis.
Sheesh, you just can’t get the staff these days.
At least they still manufacture something, in the UK…
“Grange estate in Daventry”
Could you ever imagine a grow-house in estados unidos, with such a highfalutin name?
Daventry?
Daventry?
The mere mention of the name makes me want to simultaneously shudder and scratch my armpits.
OMG, it makes Manteca, CA look like the frikkin’ French Riviera…