Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 8, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Cayne to step down…. No problem for Jimmy, he can keep doing what he does most of the time anyway… Play Golf and smoke dope, it’s all good.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoM5OQAxojaM&refer=news
Cayne Mutiny?
And old yella just keeps moving higher.
Pent-Upmarket
Look for next decent correction Fri.-Wednesday next.
Ben, could you add the “Day” to the bits n buckets? This oldtimer get mixed up sometimes. i.e.Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For TUESDAY January 8, 2008
Names the Housing Collapse as one of the five things that changed America. Well golllleeee, Gomer, who woulda thunk that housing would be a huge issue in the ‘08 election.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/7/75628/75323/261/431966
Hater!
Speaking of the ‘08 election, the futures are not looking too bright for HC. Her nomination future price is sinking faster than that of a $500,000 McMansion in Phoenix:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_DConv08.cfm
“Names the Housing Collapse as one of the five things that changed America.”
But the housing collapse is a good thing!
Housing price runups = $3 gas and are things the republicans should be at least partially blamed for.
I prefer to not call it a “Housing Collapse” — I rather call it “Affordability Restoration.”
Then we must “partially blame” them for the collapse as well.
“Foundation Liquidation” has an Orwell feel to it.
“Housing price runups = $3 gas and are things the republicans should be at least partially blamed for. ”
Maybe partially, but are you familiar with the Glass Steagall Act II? Please read the link, and note this:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schoon/jan072008.html
“The Glass-Steagall Act II, enacted in 1933 to prevent another depression, was repealed in 1999 by President Clinton, a Democrat, at the behest of the investment banks.”
How does a president repeal legislation?
By having his cabinet officials intervene in the legislative process and then by signing the legislation authorizing the repeal of the previously passed legislation. This is what Clinton did in 1999. Our distinguished elected representatives must also share the credit.
He signed the law passed by a Republican congress that repealed a previous law. Surprise! Republicans and Democrats are both out to screw you over.
This is the biggest load of horse sh*t I have ever read.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119973159837172645.html?mod=googlenews_wsj&cid=1125969828&ei=AdSCR_3NFYWmoAPW6Nj5Cw
So how’s the foreclosure intervention working out so far… Not to good!
Every paragraph in this text has such holes in it………one could drive a truck through it.
How’s this for contained……………
” As I have said for some time, the housing and credit disruptions have slowed our economic growth, and the housing downturn remains the greatest risk to our economy. Yet, the U.S. economy remains diverse and resilient, even as it works through these current challenges.”
I notice that no people are mentioned…”even as it (the economy) works through these current challenges”… almost like nobody was in charge when the collapse started, so nobody gets any blame… unless they were a Democrat, of course.
From the link:
“There is a choice to be made here. Institutions that shrink balance sheets and curtail financing activities could make it more difficult for businesses and consumers to continue to finance growth. Alternatively, institutions that strengthen balance sheets can continue to play their vital role in financing businesses and individuals – thus minimizing the impact of market turmoil on the real economy.”
Sounds almost threatening.
BTW, does growth only come from increasing debt? Not sure that’s such a good thing.
does growth only come from increasing debt?
“Growth” also comes from inflation. (Not such a good thing either, IMO.)
Well debt is often neccesseary for growth, but it is never sufficeint in and of itself. An active credit market enables the purchase of plant and equipment, the research and engineering of new products. An excess of easy credit enables LBO manias, where perfectly functioning companies are “turned around,” by loading them up with unsustainable debt loads, and it enables insolvent companies to dig theselves deeper and deeper in the hole before they are liquidated.
isn’t it unload time for some of those LBO’ed companies ?
Like Freescale ?
Yes, it is getting to be unload time, but you a strong market to unload IPOs. That’s one of the reasons Wall Street is starting to panic - if the market starts falling, the IPOs have to wait, and do so without borrowing since credit is tight.
Some of these LBO’ed companies may have to actually operate the business and make money the hard way for a while.
Freescale wasn’t an LBO. I had ~1000 shares of Motorola and got just over 100 shares of Freescale in the spin off.
Ha! I completely forgot! Freescale accepted an LBO a little while later! How could I forget that check I got in the mail when it was all completed? With the dividends, it represented a gain of around 150% and just barely fell into the long-term capital gains category.
Freescale does make some nice products though.
This almost sounds like Larry Kudlow or Ben Stein or Lawrence Yun speaking…
more importantly, I searched through the speech and didn’t find any reference to the slide in the USD vis a vis other currencies. I guess with the blinders on, and within the confines of the dollar denominated world, the grass is indeed green. Maybe the Zimbabwe finance minister can use Paulson’s speech as well.
Do you take that as evidence of a quiet weak dollar policy?
No it’s ostrich- head where sun don’t shine policy.
I liken it to “flying under the ‘hood”
A pilot’s term, meaning you are instrument training in a plane, with an instructor and have a hood over your head, allowing you only to see your instruments, but nothing else.
The powers that be are doing monetary instrument training, and have no idea what’s up or what’s down, and can’t do the necessary calculations to make anything happen…
under the ‘hood.
Well when you’re “flying under the hood,” there’s an instructor sitting next to you who IS looking out at the real world. This is more like flying VFR into IFR conditions. Worked so well for the Kennedy kid.
I forgot one thing…
’ssshrubery is our instructor.
Everyone was flying under the hood. They only were so proud of their computerized risk models that they didn’t bother to do a quick “sanity test.”
As in, “ya know, aren’t we eventually going to run out of warm body buyers, and then when it does, prices will stop going up, and then how is our $45K salary candle-shop owner going to pay her $650K mortgage?” Did NOBODY ask this question, at some power lunch somewhere?
Did NOBODY ask this question, at some power lunch somewhere?
I’m sure that plenty of people thought about this question, but didn’t ask it out of fear of being labelled “negative” and “not a team player”. Those labels can really hurt at bonus time.
Did NOBODY ask this question, at some power lunch somewhere?
Both Warren Buffet and Goldman Sachs saw the subprime junk for what it was and avoided it.
Gold up 14 bucks today, and over 875 and no one cares. Paulson does support a weak dollar policy and everyone “in the know” knows it. Ron paul is the only candidate even trying to change our current weak dollar policy.
Ah well, no more trolls:
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview?u
(last paragraph)
AT&T’s CEO said the company is disconnecting more home phone and broadband Internet customers for failing to pay their bills, according to Bloomberg.com. The CEO said the company is experiencing “softness” in its broadband and phone line businesses due to slowing economic growth. The news sent the company’s shares and the overall stock market sharply lower.
Paulson was just on CNBC. Steve Lisman (sp?) had a flipchart up, and on had the case-shiller graph on one of the slides.
At least he acknowledged the data on the graph, and said that there was not a silver bullet - prices would have to adjust.
Not great - but a start so that the wall street guys start to pull their collective heads out of a giant a**
Commonly spelled Lies-man.
In fiction Tony Soprano took HUD/FHA to the cleaners.
Victor “I’m just the Appraiser” is more than real.
The fraud and corruption which has driven the housing bubble will merely move from the private sector to the public like lice from a dead corpse on the Russian Front.
That these agencies are even mentioned as connected to a government inspired bail-out should cause any taxpayer great consternation.
“Second, industry and government are developing new mortgage products that will enable more people to stay in their homes.”
What’s wrong with the 30-yr fixed, Paulson?
It’s all good……..party on
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/main.jhtml;jsessionid=BMKWN5FX5ILG5QFIQMFCFGGAVCBQYIV0?xml=/property/2008/01/04/nosplit/pcrash105.xml
The BOTTOM is in!!!
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080108/REALESTATE/801080350
Have housing prices hit bottom?
Florida’s best known economist says market in region has stabilized
By MICHAEL POLLICK
michael.pollick@heraldtribune.com
Florida’s best known economist says the Sarasota-Manatee residential property market bottomed out in September-October and has now stabilized in both price and volume.
Hank Fishkind predicts flat prices for both counties through 2010, as the region chews through excess inventories of new houses and condominiums.
His findings jibe with what some Southwest Florida real estate observers have been saying and with what statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors have shown during the final months of 2007………………..>
Orlando has the strongest market in Florida, followed by the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor, Fishkind said.
Is he referring to the “Florida” in the southern US or some other “Florida” I’ve never heard of?
What is he “best known” for? Faulty predictions?
Is this bottom number 9,987? Or is it up to 9,988 by now?
Gotta love this newspaper. FL’s best known economist is not Adam Smith, Alfred Marshall, Paul Samuelson, or even Milton Friedman. No its Handk Fishkind–best known for his Pollyanna housing forecasts. Why is FL burnt toast?
Ben et all,
Not sure how many people have read this (my guess: very few, since this was translated only in 2006), but a book by Jesus de Soto, translated from Spanish and linked to below, is the best explanation of money, bank credit, and economic cycles I’ve ever read - it is, imo, the pinnacle of thought about money from Austrian economics:
http://www.mises.org/books/desoto.pdf
It also shows that deflation, though likely at this point after such great amounts of credit expansion in the past 15 years, is not an inevitable soon outcome as many here claim - it is just a likely, and somewhat optimistic one. The Fed as lender of last resort always has the ability to push hyper-inflation and the complete collapse of the dollar, if they want to put off the looming serious recession / depression for enough time.
Been reading here for well over a year now, this book is excellent and I hope many people take the time to read through it. It demolishes all other macro-economic theories. Enjoy.
I heard the FED does want to ruin the dollar because we will be going to the Amero by 2010. The dollar is finished.
Thank goodness we’ve endeared ourselves so much with Canada & Mexico.
I’m sure they’ll want to join our club…
A sub-prime three way split?
Yes, Canada and Mexico will all switch to the Amero. It’s the American verson of the “euro”
No wonder why China and other countries want to dump the dollar while it is still worth something. Everyone’s fortune in dollars will shrink big time, I wonder how many dollars to the Amero? Could be anywhere from $1.5 to $5
Oh fer cryin’ out loud!
China and other countries collectively cannot “dump the dollar”. Who would they dump it to? The US? Guess what they would get in return! The same dollars.
They can dump it to each other, or they can buy any assets denominated in that currency (oil, gold, stocks, bonds, real-estate) but they cannot “dump the dollar”.
Why is such a simple thing so hard for people to grasp?
I suggest they use the Gordon Brown technique of telling everyone in advance that they will be selling half their stock at auction…
It would be kind of nice of they could arrange for another Brown Bottom… soon.
Thank goodness we’ve endeared ourselves so much with Canada & Mexico.
I’m sure they’ll want to join our club…
While the people of those two nations might not be so keen, the ruling classes do seem very interested in forming a new “club”. The Mexican’s of course are hoping for eventually fully open borders, so that they can even more easily dump their surplus people on us. For the Canadians it will further simplify trade with the US, removing pesky exchange rate fluctuations from the equation.
The real down side for them is that the successor to the Fed (which will be a renamed Fed) cab wreck havoc with their economies.
Personally, I would remain fully independent (especially if I was Canada).
From what I’ve read, Canadians are highly suspicious of Amero-like free trade spheres.
I think Canada should merge with Australia. Somehow I always thought they were too alike that it didn’t make sense to have two countries. They are both huge, underpopulated, resource heavy countries with a similar history, common language, similar economies & currencies etc. Too many similarities, except that one is dry and the other wet (alternately, one is hot and the other cold). Anyway, a CanAus $ will be a pretty viable thing. (Add NZ to the mix for good measure, and figure out what to do with QB.)
My crystal ball began predicting the decline of the dollar so that the Amero can slide in to replace it nearly two years ago. It now tells me that China will indeed do a loop-de-loo with the dollar around the time of the Olympics (8-8-08). It also tells me to check back on the 21st of Jan for updates. I’m also seeing massive credit card problems in Feb, which may inspire ppl to NOT pay their CC debt. Bush will spiral out of control sometime in June and cause election banter to heat up even more as this election will become more and more competitive. “Subprime” was and is the first domino to fall in 2007-08. Expect an economic 9/11 this year. Stay tuned.
There appears to be merit to the Amero theory, however I doubt things will unwind that quickly. The fed still has the ability to print lots of money. This will take a decade or two to unwind and along the way there will be plenty of civil unrest, possibly even a breakup of the united states as a Federation. Of course the deflation camp will bring the whole heap down very quickly as most Americans default on their debts as incomes rapidly drop and indebtedness accelerates out of control bringing rapid collapse to our retirement funds, banking and municipalities as taxes plumet.
Hey Ben, what is your opinion on the Fed being able to print a lot of money?
The Fed can monetize what ever it wants, and it’s doing that right now. Banks can put up alot of garbage as “collateral”, the Fed gives them money for the crap. The money comes from thin air, and of course, is a direct bailout. Supposedly, the Fed gives the crap back to the banks, and the banks have to repay the loan, but somehow the roll over dates keep getting extended, no surprise there.
I hope Ben responds to moteplug, as I agree with his view (but I am always interested in opposing viewpoints, as I always try to avoid jumping to the conclusion that my views are correct
).
Might be some merit to the theory in the long run, but there’s way too many tin-foil-hatters out there thinking we’ll be using the Amero by 2010. Ha! You are very optimistic about the speed and efficiency of governments if you think that could happen — even if people WANTED it!
In any case, the merits: Seeing how the EU cobbled together some functional and dysfunctional currencies into one lump called the Euro, then sure, its possible. They show how it can be done. But how long did that take? A long time. And when it was all said and done, it’s not like Deutschmarks became worthless. And even so, not all the EU countries joined into the Euro anyway.
I reckon, though, that trying to get the US, Mexico, and Canada into a monetary union is a lot harder for the simple reason that the three countries are VERY different economically and monetarily and haven’t yet made more than baby steps towards economic togetherness. And pray tell, how will you convince the Canadians to ditch their currency for part-pesos?
Let us pray it never happens, or we’ll have the worst of all worlds.
Sadly the ‘New World Order’ conspiracy theorists are right on the money.
First the Fed will kill the Euro, then comes the Amero, the prelude to a world currency.
And the sheep won’t know what hit them.
US Treasury doesn’t even have the clout to switch to US dollar coins from the costly bills.
HTH are they supposed to get business on board to switch to an entirely different currency?
I was thinking how we can’t even get rid of the penny w/o a lot of angst and teeth grinding. Ditching the whole currency should be interesting (if I’m still around when its attempted.)
The Bundesbank, and not the Fed, will kill the Euro.
Germany is pretty conservative when it comes to monetary issues. They are a heavy capital goods exporting economy, rather at odds with much of the rest of Europe. (Granted, Deutsche Bank has been party to subprime in a big way.) The seeds of dissent against the Euro will be sown in Germany, with the following being the triggers:
1. Addition of more Eastern European economies to the Euro zone and all the costs that it entails.
2. Debasement of the Euro by the ECB, as EU monetary policy. Lowering of Euro rates.
3. Sharp divergence between the economy of Germany and the rest of Europe, in particular France, Spain & Italy.
4. Continued holding out of UK, Switzerland and Nordic countries against the Euro.
5. Large scale shift of mode of payment from cash to electronic payments (cell phones are popularly used for small payments in Europe).
Yep and it promotes globalism. 2010 seems a little soon,
I agree. 2020 definitely seems possible. FWIW, the peso is already de-facto pegged to the US dollar. Integrating the peso and the US dollar could be a first step.
I think we’ll sooner see the Amway currency…
Do any of you have any clue the enmity the rest of the world has towards us, presently?
No doubt. But FWIW, Mexico and Canada’s economies are pretty much hitched to our wagon already.
A B School proof told me that some are foreseeing the disapearrance of national and regional currencies altogether, which would be replaced by currency issued by super conglomerates (Mobil-Exxon-IBM-WalMart-ADM) in the future. This of course would go hand in hand with the demise of the nation-state. What he said was that corporations would prefer to deal with local gov’ts (if yo don’t let us pollute, then we’ll move to a county that will let us pollute).
The main links between us and Mexico are being severed, as I type…
Mexicans here, are going back home in droves, because of employment possibilities not being around anymore.
Mexican Oil is running low, the Cantarell field playing out quicker than anybody would have ever imagined…
From 2.1 Million barrels a day in 2003, to around a million a day, presently.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
Yeah, but Mexico will become our new “China”. They will make our sneakers, TV’s, and all that other junk sold in WalMart. And will accept our TP as payment, because it will be their currency as well.
“Mexicans here, are going back home in droves, because of employment possibilities not being around anymore.”
They will be back guaranteed 100%. As soon US economy ticks up again . They can ‘vacation’ on the family hacienda or ranchera farm with the remittances sent back. It depends on how porous out borders are and my feeling is that US will not do jack s*it to clam down on the borders. especially if Obama gets elected. Look for another wave of recrossers as soon as The economy goes up again in a fews years as it alway does after a sharp recession, which normally run for 1-2 years.
This has been the pattern for last 20-30 years as border crossings wax and wane with the economic tides. The Mexican and CAmericans know this and will bide their time in their home countries meanwhile living like kings on cheap peso exhange rates of 7-1 or 8-1. I figure with $10,000 in remitttances one can get by without work for almost a year in Mexico or CAmerica.
I had a Mexican green card buddy of mine who invested in land near his extended family 100 miles from Guadalajara. He used to make regular trips there to work on his plot.
Many people have anticipated the drop in Cantarell oil production. Mexico will not become the new China, but will most likely become the Mexico of Pancho Villa with civil unrest and cross-border raids. Geography and history will continue to link the US to Mexico.
Not the new China, but our “China”, the producer of cheap(ish) consumer goods for the US. Not as cheap as China, of course.
But you are right about civil unrest and cross border raids. All the more reason to build the wall.
Call me cruel, but patrolling UAV’s with Hellfire missiles at the ready would make border incursions a lot less common. That’s what ticks me off about the whole “security” nonsense after 9-11. We beat our chests about “security” and then let millions of people just wander across our borders, including countless criminals of all kinds (mostly violent). Yeah, some “security” that is!
Then we have the extreme possibility of a p*ssed electorate finally turning off the tube long enuf to insist we nationalize the Fed, have Treasury take absolute control of currency…..and issue debt-free money.
Have the FDIC do open audits on the existing banks, who simply loan “our” money into existence, whilst giving us the priviledge of paying them interest on bookkeeping entries, and those found bankrupt be put into receivership……perhaps making some financial concession to shareholders….while keeping your local branch open for routine business, under the auspices of the treasury….
No more interest on the national debt. Inflation of currency supply to be calibrated to specific supply/demand criteria. Several other major adjustments, like dumping what remains of Bretton Woods, and starting from scratch.
Actually not impossible. By some calculations, we could eliminate income tax completely.
Hey - I can dream, can’t I? Won’t happen in my lifetime, given the control of the internationalists/bankers who own the system. It’s actually possible, but would require waking those millions who are genuinely concerned about J-lo and Ben, or today’s equivalent.
On the current course, I submit the 230-odd Halliburton detention centers won’t begin to meet the demand….
another record gold price:
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — Gold rose to a record as higher crude oil and a weaker dollar spurred demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $17.84, or 2.1 percent, to $876 an ounce in London, exceeding the previous record of $868.89 set Jan. 3.
http://tinyurl.com/3393d4
dollar resumes slide:
BERLIN (AP) — The dollar resumed its slide against the euro and the pound Tuesday ahead of decisions by central banks in Europe and London on interest rates.
The 15-nation euro bought $1.4706 in morning European trading, up from $1.4696 in New York late Monday. The British pound rose to $1.9745 from $1.9697
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080108/dollar.html?.v=2
Got burned on that. Put in an order to short GLD on Friday, was up on my position a few dollars Monday, and woke up to find myself spanked today. Got out.
I’m long gold at $611 … was convinced the move to $853 was a headfake. Who knows, maybe this is another headfake, but this gap up/down thing is a killer.
Oh well, lesson learned: never hold overnight anything that trades overnight. Cost: $12 + commissions. Cheap!
Look what gold did last year at this time, This rally will take us to 1k by the end of winter. Then a pull back to consolidate in the 800’s, end of the year it starts all over again and we shoot for 1500.00 by spring 09. Just study the charts and its very clear, its almost getting too easy to predict which tells me a huge pullback could be coming but it will be short lived.
I’ve yet to read a story about a strawberry picker that was given 1,000 Troy Ounces of Gold, for $15,000.
Extrapolating your charts to infinity can be costly. Why look only at one year ago? Why not look at what happened last stock market cycle? Why not have a little fear from looking at 1981? Extrapolation to infinity cost me a lot back then, lol.
My average aquisition price at present is $380. I almost added significantly at $550 but lost nerve.
Me too - lost nerve, that is. Long from $430 to just over $500. Late - but not too late - getting into gold stocks, which I maintain will get a mania lift in a year or so…
baltimore sues:
Baltimore’s mayor and City Council are suing Wells Fargo Bank, contending that its lending practices discriminated against black borrowers and led to a wave of foreclosures that has reduced city tax revenues and increased its costs.
http://tinyurl.com/39kr35
“discriminated against black borrowers”
That’s the problem, they did NOT discriminate against borrowers, anybody dead or alive could get a loan. Of course the race card is one of the favorites in the deck.
Yeah. I would think discriminating against black borrowers would mean NOT giving them a loan. Sheesh.
Well, there is some evidence that Black borrowers were more likely to be steered to subprime loans, even when they had prime credit.
This is a good spot to put in the info I read in the paper today. A loan officer from Wells Fargo is being foreclosed on by Wells Fargo. I think she invented shady deals and money under the table clear back before 2000. The word sleeze is a little too nice for her. When I used to sell real estate, anyone who went to her either had to get a new loan officer or a new realtor, because I refused to work with her. Anyway I’m glad to see that she’s getting what a lot of her buyers ended up getting…foreclosed on. Couldn’t happen to a nicer person. Too bad it didn’t include a little jail time, but banking fraud rarely does.
Also in our paper today (Columbiana County in OH) property values are being raised up 6% this year. They said it will take us up to 93% of the sales values. But get this…the figures are based on the last appraisal and heavily on the last year of that appraisal “2006″. It does not take into account “2007″. Plus foreclosures in OH are NOT included, according to the article, when determining the value of property sales. So now for a bunch of years they will collect a lot more taxes than the props are really worth. Check your states and see if foreclosures are excluded from valuations.
I thought all counties in Ohio did a residential re-assessment only every 3 years. That is how it works in my part of the state (Cincinnati-Dayton area). Since property taxes are paid in arrears in Ohio, this means you are paying in 2008 (jan & July) for tax year 2007, which was apparently based on a 2006 reassessment.) Was the previous re-assessment done back in 2003?
Reassessments are every 3 years. I think ours were 2000(98-00), 2003(01-03) & 2006(04-06).
The 06 assessement for 04, 05 and 06 to be paid starting in 07 since taxes are in arrears by one year. Apparently the greatest weight to the pricing was given to the 06 year, the 3rd year. Anyway that’s according to the article. So now we’ll be paying these taxes thru 07, 08 and 09 and then starting in 10 we’ll pay for the assessment of 07, 08,09. Wonder how much they’ll go down if half the sales are foreclosures and they aren’t counted in the the valuations.
First they get sued for not lending, then they get sued for lending.
Doesn’t mean they weren’t sleazy both ways.
countrywide; lying liers
The Countrywide Financial Corporation fabricated documents related to the bankruptcy case of a Pennsylvania homeowner, court records show, raising new questions about the business practices of the giant mortgage lender at the center of the subprime mess.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/business/08lend.html?ref=business
bush to PPT; ‘fry the shorts’
Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.
http://tinyurl.com/36h9ez
That’s why I dumped my puts. Ain’t giving back 200%+ profits. I’ll be able to buy them back.
With all the money you are investing and with house prices crashing, in a few years you will get that mansion in Texas when no one else will have the $200k downpayment
This “fry the shorts” thing so far is doing wonders for ^HUI. I’m lovin’ it.
I´m about to buy gold EFTs. Is this a good time? Would you buy EFTs or bullion or something else? This is my way of hedging my losses since I am about to put my house up for sale and expect to take a loss. I figure if I sell at 1k then I´ve hedged my losses. Anyone recommend an online broker? I was thinking Fidelity.
Oops, meant to say sell at 1500k. That would hedge my losses.
Everybody that will lose money (most everybody) this go round, will do so, because blind faith was placed in others…
Trust yourself, and buy bullion.
Separate yourself from the Crowd…
First, for God’s sake - or your own, take no advice from people you have no idea about - like us, here….
That said, Why Fidelity? Good rates? Check the discount brokers…..most have free introductory trades for a varying period of time.
Second, I (she blushes with humility) expect gold to get bopped on the head a bit shortly….. Very volatile and very small market. Maybe it will. Maybe it won’t. I consider that a big pop today, and am pessimistic about it holding at this early point in the game.
I like GLD for a bullion ETF, and GDX for a miner’s ETF. Bullion is still moving more than miners, but their turn will come, unless human nature has altered drastically in the past week.
Be careful, and good luck. Many gold fans here prefer bullion, for good reason. Some of us like goldmoney.com, again, for good reason. I’d encourage you to spend a bit of time researching the whats and whys of gold before handing anyone your hard-earned cash.
Apologies for leaping into the breach here….
Don’t call and ask for EFT’s paid for with an ETF… They’ll try to sell you a mansion in Beverly Hills with a Cement Pond!
This will be a much worse recession than the mild ones in 1990-91 and 2001,” he said.
Gee we could have told them that, what…3 years ago. And these people are running our country.
RE: Gee we could have told them that, what…3 years ago. And these people are running our country.
Kinda blows ya away doesn’t it.
Some local Beantown economist’s still think recession is only a 20% possiblity.
” ‘At this point the debate is not about a soft land or hard landing; it is about how hard the hard landing will be,’ said Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University.”
Buckle up. Hard landing ahead.
Is ‘fry the shorts’ an official U.S. govt policy?
It’s a part of the War on Savers. Do not stray from the herd or else.
If the city wins this suit, noone will want to loan to any black borrowers. This will just ratchet the credit noose tighter.
The banks will get sued again if they refuse to loan to black borrowers. I say the suit is BS. The best banks can do is raise the interest for everyone in that city as punishment so all those people will be stuck with rapidly declining house prices and the taxes will plummet.
Rapidly declining house prices - will anyone notice?! After all, it’s B’more, yo! Where else can you: rent spinners for your G’ride, watch druggies walk around with automatic weapons on the street corner, be amazed as people steal the street lights for the scrap metal value, and generally live a horrible existance in a run-down, filthy land of crumbling rowhomes with no life - no trees, no grass, nothing - in the area?! Oh, and if you don’t like it, the natives will firebomb you to death.
I’d like to say that there’s no way Balti-morgue can get any worse, but I am sure the lawyers and politicians will find a way!
Up date from AZgolfer. Played golf on Sunday with Working Women and over heard one of the girls say her husband had been laid off. He was the superintendent on a condo project at 55 Avenue and Happy Valley Road. This is a pretty popular area called Stetson Hills. They had just started the ground work for the garages when the owner closed the project. She said some of the units had been pre-sold and they would get their money back. I’ll keep an eye on the project and let everyone know what happens to it. The girl’s husband is going to try to get a job in commercial construction – good luck with that!
One if the girls in my foursome told us that she and her husband are going to go to Spain and look at real estate! I almost said “Are you crazy? The housing bubble is GLOBAL and the dollar is weak against the Euro! Then I remembered that one of the other girls in the group bought her son’s house in 2005 so he could move to Denver. She is renting the house at a negative cash flow and housing prices are falling fast all over Phoenix. I kept my BIG MOUTH SHUT! Had to bite my tongue.
Last, I had lunch with a friend that works in the Dial Tower on Monday. During lunch she said I should go look at the town houses across the street. The Chateaux on Central has been discussed on this and other housing bubble blogs. They are supposed to be “New York” style brown stones. They are four stories each with an elevator. The sales women looked bored and was happy to show me the unit. These are the ugliest town homes I have ever seen. The prices are 3 million to 4.5 million. Unbelievable!
AZgolfer,
I agree with your assessment about finding jobs in commercial construction. While there have been plenty of jobs in the commercial pipeline in the past year, there’s a slowdown hitting that part of industry as well.
$3 million + for a townhome in downtown Phx? Where do they think they are, Vegas?
” These are the ugliest town homes I have ever seen. The prices are 3 million to 4.5 million. Unbelievable!”
Wow is this a pricing mistake? How big are those townhouses? I say prices there will drop to $70/foot if those townhouses are “special” which you doubt, and if they are 5000 feet, they are worth $350k so at current prices, it’s 10x overpriced! wow!
If you had $3.5m you could get a penthouse in NYC or a nice townhouse in central London!
The townhouses are 5,000 to 8,000 sq ft but they seem much smaller due to the four levels. Also the elevator (over sized) takes up sq ft on each level. The sales lady even admited that they did seem small. The unit I looked at had a wierd hallway on the 2nd floor that was completely waisted space. I told her I did know anyone that had 3 million to spend on a condo.
“One of the girls in my foursome”
There is just something so right about that line. Sorry, I had to chime in.
Were you kidding about wanting a prostitute for your birthday in another thread? You can’t cheat on your wife like that with some disease ridden vermit!
i am sure he was kidding
all the prostitutes in nyc are busy with the coke sniffing i-bankers dont you know anything
Why would I give a “pro” fifty dollars to rotate my tires when my wife will do it for twenty?
Why do you even bother owning a car? So much public transportation and its cheaper with none of the hassles. I don’t own a car and theres buses where im relocating(NW PA) and since its a small city, lots of shopping walking distance from homes.
You’re awful to keep wife in the dark about her market value.
She needs to talk to Suze Orman.
I thought NYCityBoy had a subway pass, Bye…
Btw, why are you changing the topic? 0_o
lmfao!!!
NYCityBoy you kill me every morning.
NYC guy - you are really on a roll today. I’m trying to work and look professional here!
Comment by NYCityBoy
2008-01-08 06:55:53
Why would I give a “pro” fifty dollars to rotate my tires when my wife will do it for twenty?
And don’t forget your cats, nycityboy. How much do THEY charge?
What’s a vermit?! Is that some sort of new kind of ‘leisure industry worker’? Eastern eupopean or something? Tell me quickly, man! My own birthday is coming up.
I think a vermit is a varmint infested by vermin.
Spain might have the biggest of all of the property bubbles and it’s now starting to unwind. You’d have to be a total idiot to get into that market now. Maybe they can do a trade with a fool over there. “I’ll trade you my overpriced Arizona house for your overpriced Spanish house.”
There are no laws against prostitution in Spain, and plenty of good golf courses. One of the girls in my foursome told me so.
To the DC-area HBBers:
We will have our first meeting tonight Tuesday 7pm at Capitol City Brewing Co on Capitol Hill, 2 Mass Ave NE.
I will put an 8×11 sign that says “It’s Different Here” on the table when I get there. At this point, the list is: gt, polly, Xpovos, Hondje, clue phone, NOVAwatcher, jane, jim A, STL, MikeG, and me. Some attendees on the list are probabilistic.
Our Meeting Agenda
1. Have a beer
2. Raise a glass in Ben’s general direction. I’ll bring a compass.
3. Btch about housing
4. Have a beer
If you want to join (please do!) or adjust the agenda, then leave a post here.
Wish I could go. Let all of us know what goes on. Just the gossip, not the drinking. Everyone have fun and while you’re there help Washington solve the housing crisis. God knows, they haven’t a clue.
I will be in attendance, to confirm. Looking forward to meeting some of the brightest folks in the area.
If you get bored at Cap City, keep in mind, you’re only about 3 blocks from this place:
http://www.realtor.org/vlibrary.nsf/pages/newdc
And, they have a pretty nice casual bar on the ground floor there - called the Billy Goat Tavern (named after a famous place in Chicago - which, is, after all, home to NAR HQ. That’s where we really oughta have a future session.
You know - I’m sure some NAR types look at this blog daily - so be on the lookout for some folks who are giving you the once over. And, if you somehow end up in Gitmo, don’t forget to write.
7pm 1-8-08. you gonna be there prompt?
Yes, at least that’s my plan.
DC traffic being what it is: It would be helpful for somebody to back me up. Just bring an 8×11 with the words “It’s Different Here” in big letters and put it on one of the upright tables if I’m not already there.
I’ve never been to this location. What’s an ‘upright’ table?
They are the tall tables that require you to stand, as opposed to the tables that you sit at. It will facilitate being able to meet everyone, instead of those seated next to you. (A place at the bar is a second bet.)
I’ll likely be there early, I drove in today for the event and get off well in advance of the meet-up. And the drive is actually a pretty straight shot for me with the South Capitol St. roadwork they’ve been doing.
I’ll be wearing a nametag and may have an 8×11 sign myself, and will definitely have a book in hand.
Well I AM finally getting around to reading Irrational Exuberence…
Chick:
Futures strong this morning. Is this a head fake or do you think they climb higher during the morning? I’m inclined to be short of course. Interesting comment on Bloomberg radio this morning by a volatility analyst that not enough puts have been purchased leading him to think a major decline in the averages in imminent.
What say you?
I’d like to believe it and if 1375 S&P gets broken convincingly, I’ll be all over it too.
KBH lost $9.99 per share in the quarter versus the $1.08 expected loss. I would expected KBH shares to rally.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWNAS585820080108?rpc=44
Bwahahaha.
all the bad news is priced in already
go buy those dips!!
Aren’t the futures generally strong when PPT members speak or FOMC members meet?
Save te Sheeple
http://www.stockmania.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=141
From our Kiwi friends: Every thang’s gonna be all right:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10485729
Houses in Auckland used to be around NZ $150k just 5 years ago and are now over NZ$500k, with floating interest rates @ around 11%.
Timber!
That would be a monthly payment (P&I) of almost NZ$ 4,800. How many New Zealanders can afford that?
Their per capita GDP income averages out @ $26k, ours is around $43k…
And there’s 1,200 miles of ocean, until the next humans.
Also remember that their population, economic output and size (but not shape) is roughly the same as Colorado.
How’s Colorado doing real estate-wise?
Lousy
However, the monthly payment on a median priced house does not gobble up a median paycheck the way it does in other places. Still, too many houses and not enough quality job creation.
“That would be a monthly payment (P&I) of almost NZ$ 4,800. How many New Zealanders can afford that? ”
4, or maybe 5 :O
Paulson is on CNBC right now sounding very unconvincing.
Paulson speaking - futures falling.
Coincidence? I think not!
Looks to me as though futures are going up…
http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/?sid=2275790
Something really interesting happened in that futures market between August 07 and now…
Two-year view is even better; check out the volume spike in Nov-Dec 07. Got gold yet?
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=GC08G&sid=2275790&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=1&time=9
Strong gold policy?
METALS STOCKS
Gold futures surge to new all-time record high
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:28 a.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures surged to a new all-time high on Tuesday, soaring as high as $879.40, as dollar weakness, rallying crude-oil prices and tensions between the United States and Iran boosted demand for the precious metal.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-surge-new-all-time/story.aspx?guid=%7B632004D7%2D5BCC%2D4F9E%2DA567%2D9677123B9CE0%7D
He is full of sh@t.He is like a puppet on a string.
A candy colored clown they call the sandman Tiptoes to my room every night Just to sprinkle stardust and to whisper Go to sleep, everything is alright
In Dreams - Roy Orbison
Something queer here?
Was it only a few weeks ago that we were constantly being told how much this or that pre-holiday weekend’s sales were up so much.
After the holidays I’m not hearing a single word from the usual suspects describing mall traffic, retail spending, retail sales, margin, whatever.
Sure, some isolated tricklings from specific companies, such as Target or Best Buy, but where all the overall statements by retail analysts?
Are they all very conspicuous by their silence, or have I just been distracted by Lindsey wagon-sliding, Britney kid-losing, or presidential candidate tears?
I believe the retail report for December comes out Friday. That may be the bad news that sends the retail sector of the market down some more, or . . .
My 2 cents: After Christmas, retailers were advertising the hell out of post x-mas sales and to get the most for your gift cards, it made sense to redeem them asap. Normally, most gift cards are redeemed in January and those sales are recorded then. We may have a case that a lot of cards were redeemed earlier than normal and “sales stolen from future months”. December may actually look okay from a gross sales perspective. I believe when quarterly profit numbers start rolling in during the first quarter, we’ll find out that retailers were selling crap, but at very small margins. Costs are up and Profits will be weak. Tax day 2008 will be fugly.
You may have read the UK didn’t do so well at Christmas.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119974338776872985.html?mod=MKTW&ru=MKTW
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BC5C6735A%2DA349%2D4055%2D87BC%2DAC62C6CA3636%7D&siteid=rss
I won’t have to buy gift wrap till 2012…..my magic number. Picked up several of those $15 foil-wrap-and-ribbon numbers for $3.75.
Bubble heads will just love this one:
http://blogs.nypost.com/re/archives/2008/01/a_view_to_conqu.html
“The pace of residential development might have slowed of late, but until recently new buildings had been popping up around the city like DUI charges at a Spears family picnic. With land prices at a premium and large parcels as hard as ever to come by, however, not everyone was able to snag a spot on Central Park West. No, some builders were forced to look a bit further afield for their plots, prospecting in areas not typically associated with high-end perks like custom cabinets and concierge service.”
“Given those circumstances, it’s perhaps inevitable that some buildings have ended up rising amidst somewhat, shall we say, incongruous surroundings. In the case of certain recent developments, the luxurious insides aren’t quite matched by the outside environments.”
Complete with pictures. As I’ve said, in NYC a “luxury condo” is a housing unit with it’s own private toilet. That’s about the only thing you are guaranteed. And there are no non-luxury condos.
Does anyone have recent news on the possibly-inflated-appraisal investigation of WaMu, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? This seems like a very newsworthy item, given a reinvigorated push to expand the GSEs’ share of the mortgage market, but there is a dearth of recent news stories on the topic. Given that the SEC inquiry is “in its infancy,” I am wondering if now is the right time for a big GSE expansion, as a stink cloud of legal doubt hangs overhead?
SEC Probes WaMu on Appraisals
Regulator Checks Handling
Of Loans Possibly Based
On Inflated Valuations
By AMIR EFRATI
December 21, 2007; Page A2
The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating how retail bank Washington Mutual Inc. handled and reported on mortgage loans that may have been based on inflated home appraisals.
The SEC’s inquiry is in its infancy and involves several possible issues, including whether WaMu accurately disclosed to investors of mortgage-backed securities how its loans were appraised as well as whether the company properly accounted for its loans in financial disclosures to investors of the company, according to the people familiar with the situation.
Washington Mutual said in a statement: “We are voluntarily and fully cooperating with the SEC’s inquiry as well as the [Office of Thrift Supervision]” — WaMu’s federal regulator — “and look forward to bringing the facts to both the regulators and public.”
The WaMu inquiry comes on the heels of a lawsuit filed in November by New York state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo that didn’t name the bank as a defendant but alleged it exerted pressure on an appraisal company* to inflate property valuations to ensure its loans went through.
WaMu said yesterday, “After spending a month and a half investigating these allegations, we can say with confidence that there has been no systematic effort by WaMu to inflate home appraisals. We take these allegations very seriously.”
Last month, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which acquire mortgage loans from lenders and package many of them into securities for sale to investors, agreed to appoint independent examiners to look at whether they have done enough to protect investors from the risks of inflated home appraisals, particularly on WaMu loans.
*First American Corporation — see second link below
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119819701310243567.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
How to Solve a Subprime Mess? An Iowan Says, Let’s Caucus
By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: December 9, 2007
Across the spectrum from Mr. Miller is Andrew M. Cuomo, New York’s attorney general. Among government officials, he has been one of the most vocal about wanting to bring cases intended to highlight what he considers systemic problems in the mortgage market, like inflated appraisals and a lack of oversight of the secondary market where loans are packaged into securities.
He recently filed a suit accusing the First American Corporation of overstating property appraisals to please Washington Mutual, a client; both companies deny that. Mr. Cuomo has also demanded that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hire an independent examiner to review loans they bought from Washington Mutual, and he has promised to bring more cases.
Mr. Cuomo, who was the secretary of housing and urban development in the Clinton administration, said he respects and is involved in Mr. Miller’s multistate efforts to prevent foreclosures, but believes that the approach is not a sufficient response to the mortgage crisis.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/business/09ag.html?ref=business
RE: how its loans were appraised
HOW CHEAP WILL YOU WORK AND HOW QUICK CAN YOU GET IT BACK TO US WITH THE VALAUATION NUMBER OUR LOAN OFFICER NEEDS TO DO THE DEAL.
It ain’t rocket science.
Why is bad news on Wisteria Lane generally interpreted as bullish news on Wall Street?
Countdown to the close:8min9sec
January 8, 2008 9:21 A.M.EST
BULLETIN
Wall Street to step off higher
Broad-based gains likely at the open, though pending-home sales data and KB Home’s big net loss serve as reminders of housing woes. Starbucks and Bear Stearns’ shares play off exec moves.
• Charge balloons KB Home loss
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Not a bottom call, but curiously good news to Wall Street bulls.
KB Home reports $773 million loss
Charges, housing slump undermine builder’s fourth-quarter results
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last update: 9:20 a.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — KB Home reported Tuesday a fourth-quarter loss of about $773 million, hurt by a tax-related charge and land write-downs as the builder predicted more tough times for the U.S. housing market this year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/kb-home-reports-loss-says/story.aspx?guid=%7BB74D24E7%2D0889%2D4A2F%2D97BD%2DD0A1042D645B%7D&dist=hplatest
It’s a roman candle market today…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Gravity seems very heavy this morning…
So far today the market is falling up nicely…
Quick round trip…
http://www.marketwatch.com/Quotes/?symb=indu
Gotta admire the PPT’s dedication, working straight through the lunch hour and all…
The Economist Magazine Online:
Japan’s property markets
Homes in Japan last for only 30 years. The government wants to change that
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10431721
“…more than 50% of Japan’s household wealth is kept as cash in bank accounts…”
Wow.
Just…wow.
Which is why hopeful comparisons of Japan’s housing bubble and ours, are merely wishful thinking…
Read between the lines. Without building standards, they are still protecting the yakuza (Japanese mobsters) and their most important revenue stream … building shoddy dwellings.
Gov’t has never cracked down on yaks, because of their other revenue stream: blackmailing CEO’s.
Better than the Italian Mafia. Sucks to be in Naples, Italy, where the Mafia sucked in all the garbage from all over at great profit until all the local landfills were overflowing, such that garbage is now being piled in the streets and burned, killing Mozarella futures.
I wonder if anyone will be tempted to go all “Anbar” on their asses.
Oh wait, substitute sub-prime mortgage profits for garbage profits and New York City for Naples…
Curious to have the posters here offer their opinions on this:
A popular means of riding out an economic downturn is the ol’ return to school, which I have been considering. Hiding out in graduate school for a couple of recessionary years seems a good idea. (Of course, I have other reasons to want to go to graduate school besides the economy.) Seems like a good time to go for me, and I can’t be much poorer than I am now so the “economic hit” of being a broke grad student won’t hit me as hard as others who leave well-paying careers to return to school…
I just applied to one program for next fall (I’m still researching different schools and didn’t want to send out 20 applications just yet) but I’m curious -
How you think the tightening credit of this recession is going to effect student loan moneys? What effect do you forsee on tuition rates and such? Discuss.
Good question, and the answer depends on how many students default, and how high the inflation rate rises.
Assuming your graduate degree would increase employability, it might be considered a better risk than someone borrowing for a second SUV or running up a credit card debt for a plasma screen.
On the other hand, the whole non-guaranteed student loan market is a very recent phenomenon, and higher education (liked the housing market) scarfed up the proceeds by raising tuition on the assumption that students could just go further into debt. That’s another bubble that will have to correct.
It’s good you have your application in, because lots of recent college grads may be competing with you. But if you have a decent job, consider attending part time until you get fired. You can always switch to full time if you have nothing better to do.
Hey Bub, I’m 41 and back in grad school. So far I love it. My one recommendation is to work hard at getting into a state school where you can offset your tuition with work study. I’m working about 14 hours a week this quarter and it not only pays a stipend (1400/month), but it also pays my tuition and my family’s insurance.
I keep seeing ads for student loans, so maybe that is the next bubble.
Actually, I think rising college costs in the last few years are attributable to all the easy credit. I just don’t see what else justifies the rising costs. In my view, education ought not to outpace the cost of everything else, in fact there are a lot of things that should make it cheaper. My chemistry class had about 200 students in it, and we didn’t go to the professor with questions, just the T.A.s. So why do you need 3 chemistry professors teaching Chem 1A? Video tape the lectures of the best one, and you can have an unlimited number of students view it remotely. Hire as many T.A.’s as needed to support the number of students enrolled. Save the professors for the smaller, more advanced classes.
Anyway, I think the need to push credit will extend to student loans so you won’t have trouble getting loans. You’ll just be competing with other people who help bid up the cost of education because they feel they have unlimited funds to support it. Universities will gladly continue to increase fees as long as students are flush with credit.
Other than living as cheaply as you can yourself, I don’t think there is much you can do about it.
“I just don’t see what else justifies the rising costs.”
I do — look no further than the widening earnings gap between those with and without college degrees over the past thirty years.
Admittedly there are endogenous connections between the wage gap and the prevelance of college education. For instance, as college education becomes more broadly available to the masses, achieving a college education becomes an increasingly reliable indicator of earnings potential in a technologically advanced economy.
There is also an “expectations squeeze” on the value of a college degree. In the good ole days, not everyone had a college degree, but many more had a union card than today. Nowadays, obtaining a sheepskin has somewhat replaced the union card as a shibboleth for labor market opportunity, although Bill Gates did OK without one.
Offshoring has, and will continue to, discount the value of a non elite college diploma. I think that people are going wise up to this fact and instead of spending 100K to send junior to a no name private college, they will send him to a trade school and use the balance of the 100K to set up his own shop once he’s completed his apprenticeship. Or maybe send him to College if the local state U is good and still affordable.
I foresee a lot of those 2nd and 3rd tier private schools folding.
In Colorado, I think you’re right — I believe there’ll be a resurgence in vocational education, too. I’d like to see a return to more apprentice-type situations as well — it’s an ideal way for many people to learn skills, and it’s underutilized in America these days.
The returns on a private school liberal arts degree have seriously diminished unless coupled with A.) professional connections or B.) an additional degree (such as a law degree).
Or you could just be self employed. I will make around $40k a year once my small business is in full swing and the hours I work will be 20-30 a week and I get to choose my hours and breaks by being my own boss.
I know people making $25k a year with a bach’s degree there is too many college graduates and now the jobs are being outsourced or immigrants(legal) are working for lower wages.
I finished 2 years of college and there is no need for more. Self employment lets me live anywhere
I know people making $25k a year with a bach’s degree there is too many college graduates and now the jobs are being outsourced or immigrants(legal) are working for lower wages.
Meanwhile the Robber Barons are repeating the canard that there is a shortage of educated and skilled workers, and that more (preferably unlimited) H1-B visas are required to stay competitive.
Preach it, Bye. I can’t get over the number of times I’ve heard, “If you want a good job, get a good education.”
Well, I’ve got one, but it still didn’t save me from stints of washing dishes and punching cash registers. That was in Pittsburgh during the early 1980s, and I felt dang lucky to get the two jobs I just mentioned.
Legal immigrants making
Most of my friends have college degrees and the majority of those are working at jobs where you didn’t need a degree anyways. The return on investment for undergrad and gard degrees has really dropped. I know engineers and architects who are slumming working 30k jobs with 6 figure debt. Your job really comes down to who you know. If you don’t have any connections, then you might as well go to the cheapest school you can.
If I had to do it over again, I probably wouldn’t bother going to college. Why pay $30-60k for a college degree and hustle to get a job with that debt over your head? Better to take out a 20k loan and try and start up your own business. You’ll have less debt, have a higher income potential, and worse comes to worse, you can discharge that debt in bankruptcy, Whereas Student loans are the herpes of credit. They’re forever……
Better to take out a 20k loan and try and start up your own business.
Well, I have been thinking about how this area could use a “make your own candle” shop…
Was just talking to college daughter about student loans the other day. We were talking about kids that see these ads for up to $40K in loans. 18 yr olds taking out that level of loan is crazy. These kids are great targets. Seems the more private loans available, the higher the ed costs have become. Our goal is to get her through college and grad school without loans. She warned me yesterday via text message that she as going to buy her second semester books. I don’t mind her book charges because she’s where they only use the classics and great books - no textbooks, so at least she’ll end up with an outstanding library.
I have a friend who received loan docs along with her daughter’s preschool application. No joke. LA, of course.
What’s your field? Most science and tech fields will pay you a ~$20k stipend just for showing up. Places like Texas A&M even more. Then there’s TA-ing on top of that, research assistanceships, etc.
I’m hiding out in grad school myself. Bad timing for me, though - I will be done in three years. I’m hoping for a Civilian Conservation Corps job by then. The next WPA’s got to rebuild infrastructure, right?
RE: How you think the tightening credit of this recession is going to effect student loan moneys? What effect do you forsee on tuition rates and such? Discuss.
BeanTown Glob ran a story in the financial section today noting Sallie Mae in deep doo-doo. I’m sure you can do your own DD for specifics.
I did that in the early 80’s. I graduated with a BS in engineering in 1983, and got one half of a plant trip. It wasn’t looking good. 15k at 7% or 9%, IIRC. The interest rate made it a priority to pay off the student loans.
Scary aside: Many of the other people sheltering in grad school in the department at the time might be the same Iranian engineers now trying to aim rockets at us… (Assuming they were ever able to go back home.)
RFID Chips and Cancer, Spychips takes on AM-EX tracking shoppers with them
http://www.spychips.com/
Sounds like a bunch of sci-fi and fantasy fans with too much time on their hands.
Do they have a sister site on toll transponders? Lol.
Both Spychip gals went to Harvard Law School.
I use to think the NAU (North American Union) and the Amero were BS too, and then I read the currency article from The Council On Foreign Relations Magaine.
Pending home sales down 19% YOY. Super sweet! Enjoyed NAR’s spin that recovery may come a little later in 2008 than previously forecast.
Does a “little later” mean 2012?
What’s an “exiting home sale?” Brings to mind investers rushing for the exit door…
BULLETIN PENDING U.S. HOME SALES FALL MORE STEEPLY THAN FORECAST IN NOVEMBER
Pending home sales sink 2.6% in November
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 10:00 a.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell by 2.6% in November, a sign that home sales will continue to decline. The pending home sales index, based on contracts signed but not closed in November, fell 2.6% in November and was down 19.2% in the past year, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, had risen in September and October. Existing-home sales for December (representing closings on contracts signed in October and November) will be reported on Jan. 24. Exiting-home sales (SIC) have dropped 20% in the past year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pending-us-home-sales-fall/story.aspx?guid=%7B0408B3AF%2DEA3D%2D4709%2DAE9F%2D485FD5E25AD8%7D&dist=
The stock market seems to be going up on the news that pending home sales are worse than expected. I guess a bottom will soon be in?
Has the stock market’s price mechanism gone completely berserk, or is it merely that all the future bad news that ever will emerge is already priced in?
BULLETIN PENDING U.S. HOME SALES FALL MORE STEEPLY THAN FORECAST IN NOVEMBER
U.S. stocks extend early advance after home sales data
By Kate Gibson
Last update: 10:08 a.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-extend-early-advance/story.aspx?guid=%7BF6BAF1EC%2D2BF8%2D4269%2DAA93%2D4B2E8ABAC4F5%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
take a look at hgx. double bottom maybe. that could be your answer.
I don’t know nothin’ about no double bottom. All I can see is downward momentum (but I guess 0 provides a hard floor)…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=TOL&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=12&freq=1&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=spf+bzh+kbh+hov&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
Clarification: For that chart, the hard floor is -100%.
On a serious note, for at least fifteen years now, the U.S. stock market has (at least nominally) primarily priced the anticipated direction of Fed policy, and secondarily priced the value of actual corporate assets. This codependency between Wall Street and the Fed can only end badly, IMO.
Just pricing in the .5% rate cut for the end of the month.
Interest rates dropped last week. Now Gold and Oil jump as the dollar index drops. Stocks slightly up.
If we get the .5% cut, then there will be a slightly higher rush. However if we “only” get .25% then there will be a substantial drop again…
We’re stuck in the movie “Groundhog Day” repeating the same day over and over. Bad news, stocks drop… until the news gets so bad that the rate cut is a certainty, then we get a stock ralley as the next cut is priced in…. all the while, the dollar index drops more and more as comodity prices go up and up.
We’re again at the point that the news is SOOO bad that bad news is good news since it means a larger rate cut.
Exactly!
“Fair is foul, and foul is fair:
Hover through the fog and filthy air”
they will have to cut .5 to keep up with what the T-bills are selling for.
Stephen Roach:
“It is going to be a very painful process to break the addiction to asset-led behaviour. No one wants recessions, asset deflation and rising unemployment. But this has always been the potential endgame of a bubble-prone US economy. The longer America puts off this reckoning, the steeper the ultimate price of adjustment. Tough as it is, the only sensible way out is to let markets lead the way. That is what the long overdue bursting of America’s asset and credit bubbles is all about.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080107/bs_ft/fto010720081324550910
car dealers close, makers cut:
Instead of the stampede to inquire about year-end clearance sales, customers have been calling Ford dealer Norman Stutzke lately to offer condolences.
Stutzke shut down Keystone Ford this week after 39 years, one of hundreds of dealerships that face the ax around the country as Detroit’s automakers downsize their retail operations.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=4078401&page=1
Car dealerships are an anachronism. People hate them because they always feel like are getting ripped off.
I can see the following instead: Small, factory owned showrooms where you test drive the models. No inventory. Order at the showroom, or over the internet, everyone pays the same price. Also, factory owned warranty centers.
Just like travel agents became obsolete. Most people are perfectly comfortable making their own travel arrangements today. I can’t remember the last time I spoke with a human being when booking flights, hotel rooms, rental cars, etc.
Very good point and thought provoking (at least for me). There have been multiple such ventures/services but nothing that has been a great success, except possibly assisted buying services like the one from Costco.
Air travel and cars are fundamentally different - airline seats are a totally perishable commodity whereas cars do have a nonzero shelf life. This is what allows the manufacturer to flood a market with inventory, create/stimulate demand, and push product using dealer incentives, financing and other such means. An airline, on the other hand, can flood a market with flights but cannot hoard inventory. To some extent it can create demand (e.g. Southwest), but incentives and company financing are pretty much ruled out.
There are a few problems with your idea:
1. by and large, Americans expect instant gratification in the car buying process - if there is a car they like they want to drive it home that very day. Can you expect the average car buyer to order a car online and wait for 2 weeks before it’s delivered?
2. although one can presumably make a good choice of colors, options etc online and with the assistance of models, it’s not quite the same as test driving the same exact car that you are going to buy. cars aren’t commodities yet, and manufacturers like to keep it that way.
I agree that these are issues.
But:
1. Who says you have to wait 2 weeks? If the manufacturer has inventory in various distribution centers, why wouldn’t they be able to get it to you in 1-2 days. Add a day or two for customization (radio, seats, etc.). Plus if you can save 10% by buying this way, why not?
In a way, internet buying is arriving, but in an unexpected way. GM has a website called gmbuypower.com. Using theis website you can explore the inventories of multiple dealerships to find a car equipped the way you want it. Some years ago I was looking for a Chevy Prizm equipped a certain way. I found it, called the local dealer, and told him to get it for me. When it arrived I test drove it, was satisfied with it and signed the papers.
2). If the showroom has the right selection of models I think you could get a good idea of what the car would be like.
The idea of car dealerships being the automotive equivalent of a supermarket is pretty much unique to North America. In most other countries the notion of walking into a dealership where they have row upon row of new cars to select from is unheard of.
That is currently illegal in Texas.
You can’t have people buying cars directly from the manufacturer can you?
From the WSJ CES blog, new technology for dealing with FBs:
“Taser showed off a new line of “personal protection devices” at CES, as part of a bid to expand its customer base beyond law enforcement to fashion-conscious consumers.”
“The company’s C2 stun gun ($350 - $380) will be available with a leopard print holster, and also comes in “red-hot red” and “fashion pink” patterns.”
“And in a combination that a company could only get away with at CES, Taser said it is offering a $73 attachment that adds a one-gigabyte MP3 player to the gun’s holster, so joggers can shock attackers without pausing their tunes.”
Maybe Realtors could use these to get sellers to face reality?
There’s a video, too.
http://blogs.wsj.com/ces/
No, it’s the realtors that need to be tasered into reality.
real estate funds crash and burn:
Forty real estate funds debuted this year, nearly double the 22 that were launched in 2006. These numbers include both domestic and global mutual funds as well as exchange-traded funds.
The timing couldn’t have been worse. As last week’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices illustrates, the housing rally is over. According to this leading measure of U.S. home prices, October was the 10th consecutive month of negative annual returns in the prices of existing single-family homes, and the 23rd consecutive month of decelerating returns.
http://tinyurl.com/36c5jm
Reminds me of the Strong Internet Fund I bought into in 1999.
Flatheads continue to expect flat sales.
Realtors Group Sees Flat Sales in ‘08
http://tinyurl.com/34nf6g
“The exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain,” Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist said in a statement. “A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008.”
Another Yun classic. Still looking for the spring recovery to save the day. That may be a little difficult with overpriced inventory and lack of buyers, but Yun isn’t concerned about those issues.
foreclosure hotline swamped:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A month after the Bush Administration announced a plan to help troubled homeowners, one foreclosure counseling agency is looking for some help of its own.
“[We have] plans to hire new managers, counselors and customer service reps to handle increased demand for our services,” said Scott Scredon, Director of Public Relations for Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Atlanta. CCCS plans to hire about 130 new staff members.
“Just more than 400,000 people utilized CCCS of Greater Atlanta in 2007, but we project there will be more than 600,000 this year,” he said. “Of course, the largest demand is for counselors to help people avoid foreclosure
http://tinyurl.com/3a9lcc
Trading lesson for Blano:
Ciena. Note that it has traded 1/3 of an average day’s volume already. It has been sold off without regard to price now for about 2 weeks. I would say that some hedge fund had to puke it up. Probably a tradeable bottom.
Thanks, I appreciate your insights as well.
But how do you structure a trade on something like this, in terms of planning to get out? Since I’m a long-term investor type, I don’t have a lot of experience planning short-term exit strategies. My natural tenancy would be to hold for at least a year unless it fell another 10% or so.
I use fibonacci retracements and would dump if the low was broken. So you define your risk that way.
Wouldn’t a traditional chartist say that since it broke below the bottom of its uptrend line starting in March 2005, that it would have to test the October 2006 low before starting up again? Or am I looking at this from too much of a long term perspective?
No, you’re not. I work in really short time periods. I don’t want anyone here to take this trade, just wanted to Blano to look at the intraday chart.
OK, thanks. I think I’ll keep an eye on it and see if I can learn something.
Can I get in on the lesson?
First question: When you say ‘tradeable bottom’, does that mean your opinion is that the stock has reached a temporary (or long term) nadir of price and is poised to increase over the next (insert time period), or at worst, continue to trend sideways?
Second question: What would an estimate on that time period be, and more importantly how did you make that determination?
Third question: Wouldn’t a large holding by a major investor (hedge fund or mutual fund) being sold off slowly over a period of time have resulted in an increase in volume over that two week period? Or did I misread your statement?
I haven’t been watching it that closely over the past few weeks but I know that since they had their earnings report where they lost money on subprime investements (!) the stock has been sold off. I remember buying it last March at 25 in the first trip down to s&p 1375 and it doubled from there. Back out the 7-1 reverse split and it’s $4 a share. It broke down in October of 2001 at $9 a share. So, given the high volume this a.m., I think there’s a good probability that buying around here is good for a 15-25% profit maybe if the market cooperates. I wanted Blano to look at the 1 or 5 minute candlestick chart to see the volume on the move under 28.
Just bounced. Looks like it might hold here.
everyone who tried to bottom fish will dump if the markets roll over and it might go a bit lower but it’s pretty sold out
Tight stops here.
Note good guidance in Corning and Newport in that sector. I don’t think Ciena is dead or even sleepy but it will get thrown out along with everything else. I’m holding.
cien and I have lots of history together. These are shaping up to be some exciting times. I thought my trading days were over, but it’s hard to stay away. Especially with the bidu types looking like the amzn and qcoms of pre 2000.
Me too. I bought it from the LTCM sellers in 1998 when they were unwinding their wrong sided position in TLAB. Got it in the 8s and 9s and you know what it did in the two years after that.
I was late and hopped on mid way up. Selling that was a heart breaker.
I’m never happy unless I have a few knife cuts
Define a few, and how deep? And why would that make anyone happy?
Just a joke. Bottom fishing is an inexact science and you will get nicked by falling knives.
Fil on Minyanville is on this one too. He just posted that he thinks the same thing I do, that some fund had to puke it up and all earnings risk has been squeezed out. I agree.
Earnings risk? Is that anything like “Earnings at Risk”? Google is only my friend when I’m not trying to learn technical trading.
Not sure if txchick is coming back. Earnings risk had been squeezed out means minimal downside from here even if cien reports bad earnings.
Thanks. I think she’s busy with the spa and newer threads. Can’t blame her. Been a fun/busy day.
Interesting. Your greek is different from my greek, but I spent some time looking at the chart. I’d never heard of this company before today. Looks like they bubble-partied hard back in 2001. That’s simply amazing.
Looking shorter term which I’m more familiar with, I’d agree it looks oversold. But it also looks fundamentally weak, this company’s been going downhill for a while and I see nothing that’ll change that trend long term, either chart-wise or fundamental wise (without doing a ton of DD).
It does raise a fourth question, if I may.
How do you track all of these companies? Is it just experience, or do you have computerized alert help? You said you haven’t been watching it, but you manage to spot it on the day when it’s breaking down a harsh new low and is probably technically oversold.
It’s one thing to be able to read the infomation right and make the trades, but if I don’t even know the company exists, well, the money stays in something else.
Full disclosure, no intention of buying this stock at this time.
I have about 150 stocks in the sectors I follow in my head, daily charts, fundamentals, everything. They’re my bread and butter. I also have them on my screens and charts of course. But I can tell you what any of them did 7 years ago.
That’s very admirable, but a little scary. I can’t make this a fulltime job like that. So I’ll have to settle for continuing to watch for a while. Maybe 20 years from now I’ll be able to think back on the stocks from now.
Fascinating article on the uber rich and raising children of wealth. http://nymag.com/news/features/42595/
That was interesting. So glad that most of those people and their obnoxious offspring are concentrated in NY where the rest of us don’t have to deal with them.
I don’t hate the rich but I do wonder how many there are out there. While reading a mens’ magazine in the local library I was astounded at the items the authors considered de rigeur for men in thir 20s; $8000 watches, $600 shoes, $3500 TVs, and so on. I must not be their target audience, since I read their magazine for free but still, how many men can afford the lifestyle being pushed in print? Perhaps the publication should change its’ name to Trust Fund Babies.
It’s “aspirational”.
Here’s how it works. Initially, as you page through the magazine, you will see the above stuff ($8000 watches, $4000 liquors, etc.) However, as you reach the end you will start seeing the push of $40 liquors, etc. Something that a lot of people can afford. Even as a student, if I really wanted a $40 bottle, I could swing it. (Not saying it’s a good idea, just that it’s possible.)
Compared to the $8000 watches, it looks like “affordable luxury” but it’s really only an anchoring of your expectations.
You are correct in your observation. There aren’t that many rich people however that’s not the target audience of these magazines.
Another word for that is “framing”.
First you tell the sheep that the really good stuff is super-expensive, then offer them an acceptable replacement at a price they might be able to pay. Bait’n'Switch might be another descriptive term.
Yep, my friends and I call it the “The Crap $30-Entrée Syndrome”
There are these entire leagues of restaurants in NYC with $30 entrées which are at best mediocre, and cater to the B&T-crowd (”bridge and tunnel”) They make most of their money on pushing watered down drinks on the drunken clueless 20-somethings who work crap jobs and feel that this is their time to “let loose”.
This is New York.
For $10 you can eat exceedingly well. For $30, you can have a meal that emperors of yore would envy. However, you need to peek a little further out of the traditional comfort zone.
For the curious, I am willing to give food tours of the city.
The only thing our ersatz leadership has been good at, is subterfuge.
When things get a little hot under the collar, they bait and switch us with something else, to lure our attention elsewhere…
Right now they want us to think Iran is a threat to our country, the Hope Now folks.
Let’s talk about Change, brethren! And how we have all been Energized!
AP
Stocks Rise After Poor Housing Data
Tuesday January 8, 10:32 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Up After Report Indicates Drop in Pending Home Sales, Bolstering Argument for Rate Cut
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080108/wall_street.html
Feds may expand mortgage help program By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday the administration was exploring what would be a significant expansion of the program to help at-risk mortgage holders.
Paulson, in an interview on CNBC, said the administration was involved in discussions with the mortgage industry to expand a current program to freeze adjustable rate mortgages for five years to include borrowers of loans at prime rates. Currently, the rate freeze only covers a much smaller segment of adjustable rate loans, those made to subprime borrowers. Those are borrowers with weak credit histories.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080108/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/paulson_housing&printer=1;_ylt=Ahl03zoLe33zDGAnUKRAh3mWwvIE
Anyone thinking of locking in their ARM to a fixed loan would be well-advised to wait until the policy fix is in.
Is it too late to get an ARM now so I can be bailed out too ?
Imagine how it must feel to be an ARM holder who locked into a fixed rate mortgage just before a New New Mortgage Refinance Deal was announced?
Why did so many people go for the idea that property always goes up in value?
“the life of the lie”sell outs.
And all the passengers ran to one side of the sinking boat to support the idea.
The gap between political and financial is narrow to none.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/hornberger/hornberger141.html
you just have to love the NAR predictions! i really like it when they have to eat their words!!!
Realtors Group Sees Flat Sales in ‘08
Tuesday January 8, 10:49 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Realtors Group Predicts US Home Sales to Recover in Second Half of 2008, Annual Volume Flat
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080108/housing_forecast_realtors.html?.v=4
Old eCONomy: Goldilocks
New Economy: Gold Is A lock
“Next look at non borrowed depository reserves. Stable at over $40 billion until November, and now suddenly gone, down to $11.4 billion. This is suppose to support the banking system?”
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1314#more-1314
The graph is worth a look.
This one is a must read ! Great post Blue Skye. It made me go “holy ~^#^(@($&($)@ &)#%)&#&*)%)*”
CFC off a cliff just now. Down 15% in about a 15-minute period. Perhaps due to NAR report?
Bankruptcy rumor.
The NAR is such a credible source of information that it is easy to see how their report could instantly sink a company’s share price…
From the AP:
“Investors have been particularly anxious about Countrywide in recent days. Its stock is well below its 52-week high of $45.26.”
Considering it’s trading at $6.52 as I type this, I would say that’s the understatement of the year, so far.
The march of the CEO’s being in full swing, and they always seem to get fired in groups of 2 or 3 (with Golden Parachutes, but of course)
Is Le Tan Orange the next to go?
Orange-u-tan?
Duck L’Orange…
I bought my first Eagle yesterday and felt stupid as usual. At least it was a bit of a dip..honestly I don’t know what else to do at this point.
Why did you feel stupid? I was buying them when everyone else was buying condos, and they told me I was stupid. They don’t tell me that, any more.
It is easy for a bear to feel good about making smart investment moves when everyone else says you are stupid for doing so, and much harder to make the same move when everyone else is doing it.
I’m with you, my musician friend. I am afraid to buy Eagles for fear that gold will tank and my wife will inquisition me about why I bought at the top.
You’ve already got her flummoxed about buying cans of food, go ahead and walk the plank…
I feel much more comfortable about buying food than gold at the moment. I am quite confident that food will be much more valuable in the next few years, but not 100 percent certain about gold, as it has already had an impressive run (esp. given the high trading volume of Nov-Dec 07).
It’s the fail-safe alternative to blind faith financial follies…
My wife also gets the food storage thing. It is hard to sell her on the idea that investing $10,000 in options (which may result in a 100 percent loss) could be a safer strategy than buying a house with a $50,000 downpayment (which could result in a greater-than-100 percent loss).
Article in NYT about Countrywide recreating documents in bankruptcy case. http://tinyurl.com/3bkrqc
CFC is melting down at the moment. I cashed out my April puts. Probably too soon, but any profit is a good profit. Wonder if we’ll have a repeat of the August intra-day bailout?
Countrywide Canned?
There was a trading halt, they denied the BK rumor (after all, Mozillo said they’re going to be profitable this quarter), and now it seems to be recovering. More fun than a rollercoaster…
Why not just throw a pile of money into a big pile, douse it in gasoline, and light it on fire? At least no more GFs would have to get stucco as a result…
‘“These letters are a smoking gun that something is not right in Denmark,” Judge Agresti said in a Dec. 20 hearing in Pittsburgh.’
In fact,
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
– Shakespeare’s Hamlet –
TxChick57, Hoz,
So, when does this stop being a re-test of support?
In my mind, when it breaks S&P 1375 - 1368 and stays there.
Here’s one for Stucco. Love those W’s!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d
Given all that Dubya has said about the economy the last few days, isn’t the fact that his initial keeps showing up in the daily stock charts a bit ominous?
Yer dubya’s upside down today…
January 8, 2008 2:52 P.M.EST
BULLETIN
Wall St. loses sight of gains
Stocks off-kilter as home-sales data, KB loss, Bear Stearns’ CEO departure, Countrywide revelation return focus to housing, credit.
Or is it an M?
–
“Love those W’s!”
Hello Chick,
Different strokes for different folks! I like them M’s with a long right leg.
I don’t have your trading skills; so, I stick to my game, which is to always have positions that will benefit the most from my scenario of recession-depression-deflation-Greater Depression. All this will play out during 2008-10 something that I have been anticipating for more than a year.
Good luck to you on your trading. Time to open a good bottle of wine to go with my lunch.
Jas
That’s not a W — it’s the dreaded hangman’s gallows pattern.
–
“it’s the dreaded hangman’s gallows pattern.”
Being ignorant of some of the American terms could you please kindly explain. I love Americans’ use of language to describe conditions.
Jas
Jas — I confess I made that one up on the fly. But here is roughly what I imagine a hangman’s gallows to look like (not sure the spacing will work when I post…):
———————
| |
| |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Move the right vertical strand of three “|”s four places to the right and you will get the idea…
Much more accurate description:
http://www.scrapbookpages.com/Natzweiler/Photos/DSC_0040_0039.jpg
Yeah, well we always hear about the wine sipping and meals when the market is down. I remember the last episode of this at s&p 1407 and then suddenly during that long trip back up 100 points plus, no wine or fancy food or giant profit mentioned. That’s the beef I have. Hahahah. I made myself laugh with that one.
There you go again. If you really have any profits you probably should take some instead of bragging about it. Whatever. Different strokes for different folks.
–
You don’t get it, Chick, that I am NOT a trader. If anything I lost some money by “taking profits.”
What happened to “let your winners ride?”
I always eat well and drink well. But, on some days I celebrate the good day. Anything wrong with that? I thought that that was the American Way.
Why can’t you deal with the fact that others do well by not following the same tactics as you do? Did I ever have a problem with your market call or anything else?
New high for my portfolios today. The last new high was on 11/26/07. I expect more and more new highs as my scenario pans out. I work on long-term scenarios. I hope that this clarifies.
Jas
I’ve been out of the loop … what happened to Stucco?
He’s “Professor Bear” now.
IMHO (I base everything on weekly & monthly closes), based on weekly closes, we broke through support last Friday and have room for the 2nd leg down. To confirm a secular ‘Bear market’, the industrial average needs a single day rise of ~300 Points.
I have no positions either long or short in the US stock market, there is no position that meets my risk/reward criteria.
I’ve had index LEAP puts since May, and have various VIX calls.
Looking like a train wreck now… Dow just dove below 12700!
“…The S&P 500 is a leading indicator par excellence. Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has always peaked before the peak of a business cycle, with one exception (1980 business cycle). The S&P 500 establishes a trough prior to the end of a recession without exception. (2). The median percent decline of the S&P 500 from its peak to trough is 16.9%. In the first three business days of 2008, the S&P 500 is down nearly 7.0% from its peak in October 2007. If history is a guide, brace yourselves for a rough ride in the months ahead….”
Northern Trust Bank
Daily Global Commentary
Jan 7, 2008
Did anyone else catch Ron Paul on Leno last night?
I saw him. I wish Leno had asked him some policy questions, rather than lame stuff like “who would you pick as your running mate?” but then Leno isn’t exactly a deeply probing interviewer. Paul did a decent job of answering the questions he wanted to, rather than the ones that were asked.
DIVERGENCE STRIKES THE FOMC
BULLETIN
FED WAS SPLIT ON DECEMBER RATE CUT: MINUTES
3 Fed banks wanted bigger rate cut, 2 wanted none
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 2:00 p.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve officials disagreed sharply in early December about whether the Fed should cut interest rates aggressively or not at all, according to minutes released Tuesday of Fed board meetings held in November and December. Ultimately, the Fed board of governors and the Federal Open Market Committee decided to cut two key interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Dec. 11. Three of the 12 Fed regional banks requested a relatively large half-point cut in the largely symbolic discount rate at the Dec. 11 meeting, while two requested no cut at all, the minutes released Tuesday showed. The other seven banks requested a quarter-point cut. The minutes reveal more disagreement about the course the Fed should take than had been seen in either the Dec. 11 statement or in the minutes of the Dec. 11 FOMC meeting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B98911BC9%2DBE42%2D4AF0%2D87C6%2D74968FF8F44B%7D
Hi this is Spook, I will try to make it to the HBB meeting tonight at 7.
We’ll see you there.
Pay no heed to this gloomster. Buy the dip.
The stock market always goes up, in the long run. Ergo, every selloff is a buying opportunity.
THE TECHNICAL INDICATOR
S&P treacherously close to major trendshift
By Michael Ashbaugh, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:30 p.m. EST Jan. 8, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sp-dow-stand-treacherously-close/story.aspx?guid=%7BE4CA1715%2D159D%2D42B3%2DBD29%2DD8041AEEC5FF%7D&dist=TNMostRead
“Close” is the operative word. If the lows break, I’ll embrace the bear with both arms. I’ve been waiting for him for 5 years now.
How many others share this superstition? A critical mass of true believers could materially impact the trend coefficient in the random walk.
Oh, the humanity! OH! The! Humanity!
BIL bought cfc at 18. Wheels are coming off.
I said the same thing when people bought American Airlines down around 2. (Actually, I said the wheels _aren’t_ coming down
FT editors asleep at the switch…
Wall St higher in volatile session
By Chris Bryant in New York
Published: January 8 2008 14:06 | Last updated: January 8 2008 20:42
Wall Street stocks were volatile on Tuesday as concerns about the US consumer and worries about the health of financial companies caused stocks to seesaw.
The major indices rose in late trade as healthcare and utilities stocks spurred a rebound and a boardroom reshuffle at Starbucks cheered investors.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/26120c98-bd69-11dc-b7e6-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F26120c98-bd69-11dc-b7e6-0000779fd2ac%2Cs01%3D1.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Perhaps they meant to say “gold higher” or “long term Treasury yields higher”?
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
With some spare change, I bought some US stocks at the close and in after hours trading.
While perusing the HBB for the last 2 weeks, a lot of predictions, so here are my half penny’s worth.
At least 149 Russell 2000 companies are going under this year (perhaps as many as 213). At Least 23 S&P 500 companies are going under this year (perhaps as many as 31). These companies will go under as a result of inability to get favorable financing arrangements along with a faltering economy. Bear Stearns is going to go under - primarily as a result of lawsuits over sustained losses resulting in loss of investor confidence. Citigroup which may survive in some manner will break up into 4 separate companies. Inflation will accelerate to 8 -10%, Jas Jain will continue to say deflation is right around the corner ignoring the fact that in 18 fiat currency recessions - deflation has happened once. (Sorry Jas just a prediction, lol). The Euro will go the way of the dollar and drop to $1.16, however not good for the dollar as the Yen will appreciate to 85, the Ringgit to 3.05, the Real to 1.62, the Rupee to 34, the Dong to 15,250, the Won to 850 and the Renminbi Yuan to ?. The best performing large cap stock of the year will be Petrobras (PBR), the best performing small cap stock will be Formation Capital (FCO.TO) (I own both - so its just wishful thinking on my part! These stocks are suitable investments for me, myself and I and are not suitable for any or all investors.) The best performing stock exchange for 2008 is not easily available to US investors and the only ETF currently invested in this stock exchange has 25% of its weight in financials so I will not recommend nor refer. Look up the ETF if you wish, I have invested in the Middle East. The best performing metal will not be Gold. The gold market is too easy for Central Bankers to manipulate. Gold is the safest hedge against financial instability.
These are some of my not gloomy predictions, gloomy predictions are not fun! I think the stock market will drop another 25 -30 %. If I did not believe I had gross returns higher than what I can make shorting, I would be shorting US stocks. I look for buying opportunities, first.
This is an aside to any interested, I track layoffs pretty closely. The layoffs are happening in industries that are expected (construction, financial, tech outsourcing, housewares etc), however the industries that have laid off during times of distress (1990, 2002) are not laying off! These industries earnings are going to come down marginally, but since they were stingy in hiring from 2003; there may be no large layoffs. I have not worked out any numbers, but when I have I will post. Just an interesting difference between this and other recession starts. No idea if it means anything.
taking money off the table: Liquidity issues.
“Global equity ETFs issued $1.5 billion ($298 million daily). The leading issuer was iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (amex: EEM), which issued $569 million (2% of assets), and the leading redeemer was iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (nyse: FXI), which redeemed $101 million (1.5% of assets).”
Its not real money unless you sell it and look to fight another day.
thats a “redemption” in case you have questions about selling something and the effect on the brokerage.
I’ll add that cutting rates plays into the commodity rally for those thinking that money in all its forms has anything to say with what is so.
I tried to be a buyer today, but all the stocks I want moved higher, right up till the capitulation of the selloff at the end, after I pulled the buy number.
I desire certain things, as do others who want “this to be so”, but when the data stream does not manifest, I walk away…to fight another day.
we will see if the numbers that manifest indicate this is so.
today was the high volume down I was looking for in order to establish movements of moneys, but a full time job running a business and handling customers prevailed and the others who provide access to the movements waited as well…
FCO.TO closed at .76 dollars, less than one ounce of gold for a hundred shares.
a thousand is seven hundred sixty.
ten thousand is seven grand…worth more than my mazda.
the west face of the rockies, idaho….and alaska are about to get “tapped”
Wall St lower in volatile session
By Chris Bryant in New York
Published: January 8 2008 14:06 | Last updated: January 8 2008 21:45
Wall Street stocks slumped in volatile trade on Tuesday, led by telecoms, financials and technology amid concerns about the US consumer and worries about the health of banks.
AT&T helped cut short a mid-afternoon rebound. It was down 4.6 per cent at $39.16, after the telecoms group reported softness in its consumer business.
Just came home and bought small futures positions in the indices. This kind of news might get the fed moving in the morning.
txchick:
I got out of everything at the close b/c if there was ever a time where a fed stick save is predictable, these market levels make it so.
Profound insight gleened from Russ Winter’s blog:
During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell -
Ben Jones, thanks for exercising the courage to tell the truth.
Ben, could you add the “Day” to the bits n buckets? This oldtimer get mixed up sometimes. i.e.Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For TUESDAY January 8, 2008
Finally I see prices on air travel tickets going up quite a bit. It happened suddenly the last couple of months. Of course, the Fed won’t think we have inflation until they see wages going up 8% per year. At that time they will raise interest rates. Before that, gold will go to $2000 per ounce, to repeat the 1970s (stagflation).
Which means silver will be up to $100/ounce. Silver outperformed gold today, as it should during a commodities bull market.
here’s the deal..
the US is about a year maybe two, of bringing all the boys home, booting the guests and getting down to bidness in the States.
got cobalt?
OK, watch out, this thing could not not only kill the economy, but the whole planet…
http://tinyurl.com/37vz8x