The New Bottom In Florida
The Tampa Tribune reports from Florida. “In February 2006, Kim and John Cataldo bought their dream home in Tampa’s swanky Corey Lake Isles neighborhood. They paid $565,000. But a year later, after their property taxes and homeowners insurance skyrocketed, the couple couldn’t afford mortgage payments and put the house on the market. No offer was more than $500,000. The Cataldos kept making payments, but were running out of money.”
“They kept trying to sell the home, but the offers dropped lower. In November 2007, the lender filed a foreclosure lawsuit against the couple. Their best offer from a buyer is $350,000. To their astonishment, the Cataldos say their lender is considering accepting it and forgiving the rest of the loan.”
“Debbie Ferraro of American Guardian Title in Tampa said lenders had been reluctant to accept short sales, but two weeks before Christmas, attitudes changed. ‘Short sale business started going crazy,’ Ferraro said.”
“Tony Maltese, a local real estate investor, got in over his head in deals that went bad. He took out $3 million in loans on nine homes. One home has been foreclosed on, despite an offer for a short sale, he said, and another home is likely to be lost in foreclosure soon.”
“He’s now working on two short sale deals, one for a home in Zephyrhills and one for a home in New York. ‘I was reluctant to try this,’ he said. ‘But I’m trying to keep my credit from getting worse.’”
From NBC 2 News. “Many Southwest Florida homeowners trying to sell are frustrated that 2007 was not a good year for the real estate market. For homeowner Penny English, 2007 was a financial nightmare.”
“‘I’m going to be stuck here. I’m not going to get rid of this house,’ said English.”
“She’s ready to sell her nine-year-old Lehigh Acres home, but no one is buying. If anyone was interested, English says she’d probably lose about $75,000 selling her home. Overall, she says she’s just one victim of Southwest Florida’s housing market.”
“‘It’s been very hard unless you want to drop the house and get nothing out of it,’ said English.”
The News Press. “‘Speculative excess’ in single-family home construction in Lee County probably will create a soft housing market for three to four years, according to a report released Monday by Orlando-based economist Hank Fishkind.”
“The report was commissioned by Florida-based Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund.”
“Overall it was one of Fishkind’s gloomiest predictions. As recently as July 2006, he was predicting a soft real estate market, but one that would only last two years. On Monday, he noted that the correction has been sharper and more prolonged because of the surge in foreclosures on homes bought by people with weak credit.”
“That caught him and other analysts by surprise, Fishkind said, because ‘in part it was something new, and I think in part some of the major banks obfuscated’ denying the severity of the problem at first.”
“Real estate broker Stephen Luta in Fort Myers said there’s an attitude now among potential buyers that the market’s in for more declines but that a turnaround may be coming soon. ‘You can get a house under $100,000 in Cape Coral and that’s a good deal. You can put someone in that as a renter and make it work’ as an investment, he said.”
“It takes awhile for prices in a real estate market to fall as far as they should because sellers are often unwilling to lower their prices to market levels, Fishkind said. ‘They shoot up like rockets and come down like feathers.’”
“The wave of foreclosures in Lee County recently, with more than 1,400 a month for the past three months, has the potential to cause problems, Fishkind said, ‘but I think that’s not going to happen because it’s still a very attractive place to live compared to, say, Akron or Detroit.’”
The Herald Tribune. “Florida’s best known economist says the Sarasota-Manatee residential property market bottomed out in September-October and has now stabilized in both price and volume.”
“Hank Fishkind predicts flat prices for both counties through 2010, as the region chews through excess inventories of new houses and condominiums.”
“The Sarasota market appeared to bottom out in the spring at 470 to 480 closings per month. But then a national liquidity crisis sprang to life in August, prompted by defaults on subprime mortgages issued during the feverish markets of 2003-05 and continuing into 2006.”
“For a month or so, mortgage makers froze. As a result, sales fell to 310 in September and stayed flat at 319 in October.”
“‘It seems to me that is the new bottom,’ Fishkind said, referring to sales in more recent months. ‘So I’m not seeing any major price declines, and I think volume has stabilized.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “After rising to extraordinary heights in the real estate boom, prices of existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County will remain at an average of around $440,000 at least through 2010, Fishkind said.”
“The Florida Association of Realtors, which The Palm Beach Post cites for monthly stories on home sales, uses median home prices, not average prices as Fishkind’s report does, so it’s hard to compare the two.”
“In November, the median price of an existing single-family home in Palm Beach County was $345,700, down from a peak of $421,500 in November 2005, the association said.”
“But Fishkind insists prices won’t come down anytime soon, if at all. ‘Palm Beach (County) will never see price declines,’ Fishkind said. ‘They aren’t making any more Palm Beach.’”
“Palm Beach County’s backlog of unsold homes will disappear fast once it starts moving, Fishkind said. That’s despite Palm Beach County’s housing inventory of five years or more.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Although the housing slump overall will continue, Fishkind predicted that consumers looking for home prices in Florida, and particularly in Metro Orlando, to fall much more are not likely to be rewarded for their patience.”
“‘Housing prices tend to be sticky,’ Fishkind said, falling much more slowly than they rise, unlike other ‘products’ that often lose value fast to clear an oversupply.”
“Fishkind’s 2008 real-estate forecast has plenty of sour notes, though. He terms Miami-Dade’s condo collapse ‘the worst condominium bust cycle that Florida has seen since 1975.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “Despite a real-estate downturn and fears of a recession, the city had another record year for value of construction permitted. But this surge could be short-lived.” “Since nearly half of that figure came from a now-declining residential market with few large projects on the horizon, it’s unlikely the city can top this figure next year.”
“Miles Development Partners, which built condos at 1010 Central and the Sage, was to construct another condo building at 1701 Central Ave., but is instead planning to construct apartments.”
“Another project across from Tropicana Field, may become apartments after Grady Pridgen sold it to an Ohio developer.”
“Craig Sher, executive chairman at developer Sembler…conceded that 2008, 2009 and 2010 will be down. Sher said Sembler tracks the trends, and while St. Petersburg might be doing well relative to Florida, the state is doing poorly relative to other parts of the country.”
“The retailers that buy or rent property from Sembler are not seeing the Florida sales growth they want, Sher said, so commercial construction will, as is typical, follow residential downward.”
“Flush with new offices at a time of waning demand, the Tampa Bay area’s office market is suffering its first rise in vacancies since about 2003. Until the second half of 2007, the residential real estate slump hadn’t triggered a similar slowdown in office leasing. That’s changed.”
“As builders, Realtors, mortgage lenders and title companies purged their staffs last year, the area’s overall office vacancy crept up to 10.7 percent by the end of 2007, according to the Colliers Arnold real estate firm.”
“Colliers executive VP Russ Sampson notes that 1-million square feet of office space is available for sublet regionally after the original tenant vacated before the lease was up. Sublet space typically rents for $1 to $3 below market.”
“‘They’re willing to give it away if someone will take it,’ Sampson said.”
“Today’s situation is a far cry from the past couple of years, when brokers urged tenants to lock in leases before rents shot up. Many did, including housing industry types who didn’t expect the good times to end so suddenly.”
“‘They expanded like crazy. They really built their staffs up,’ said Colliers president Pat Duffy.”
“Some regional economies, including the Tampa Bay area, stand a greater risk of recession than others. Behind the risk is Florida’s dependence on the housing industry to provide jobs and tax revenue, as well as residents’ reliance on home equity loans to finance purchases. Each of those has tightened during the past year.”
“Retailers of big-ticket items such as cars and boats are getting hammered. ‘I guess it’s the housing market, because it’s the only thing that wasn’t there before,’ said Jack McGaughy, owner of Jack’s Interbay Marine in Tampa, where boat sales have dropped at least 30 percent over two years. ‘In general, people are not interested in buying boats. They’re not coming in the store.’”
“As home values skyrocketed two years ago, Floridians tapped into their home equity through second mortgages in huge numbers. By fall 2006, these ‘home equity extractions’ added nearly 15 percent to Floridians’ disposable income, according to Economy.com.”
“By the third quarter of 2007, home equity borrowing had fallen by half, adding only 8.5 percent to Floridians’ disposable income.”
“Wanda DeBoer, a real estate broker who represents small restaurants and retailers, sees more trouble. She insists that the economy at least is hurting small businesses, if not the big chains. ‘Look at the vacancies showing up and down the streets everywhere,’ she said.”
“A bipartisan group of lawmakers got their first chance Monday to grill state employees about the troubled State Board of Administration fund that was invested in bad securities. Lawmakers left frustrated.”
“‘It was very clear that the market was melting down in the summer,’ said Sen. Ronda Storms. ‘Somebody had a fiduciary obligation to say, ‘I’m responsible for this fund. I should ask how much money do we have in this. And shouldn’t we be getting out?’ And why didn’t anybody do that?’”
“Storms said she was doubtful an audit would give anything more than ‘four different fingers pointing in four different directions and no elected official is going to be accountable for it. And they should be. Because they ran for that job.’”
“Rep. Gayle Harrell said she wanted to make sure that an outside audit looks into who exactly was making the trades involved in the bad investments.”
“‘When I look at the scope of the amount of money that’s involved here, we are talking about assets greater than most countries,’ said Harrell. ‘I want to make sure there’s no insider trading going on. Why did we only have five brokers handling these trades. What is happening within the entity as well as the investments?’”
“Rep. Susan Bucher, a West Palm Beach Democrat, repeatedly asked why more wasn’t done in response to a March audit report that had raised red flags. ‘Who was minding the store and why didn’t we see those red flags?’”
“Jim Cassady, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink’s chief of staff, said: ‘Representative, that’s a good question. I can’t answer that.’”
“But Fishkind insists prices won’t come down anytime soon, if at all. ‘Palm Beach (County) will never see price declines,’ Fishkind said. ‘They aren’t making any more Palm Beach.’”
Where do they find these douchebags? This Fishkin clown sounds like RipVanWinkle. How does one respond to this? It’s like listening to chinese.
Douchebag is an understatement. You know the guy’s an assclown when you read this (from the Orlando Sentinel piece):
“Orlando economist Sean Snaith, who heads the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, also is more pessimistic than Fishkind about the prospects for new-home starts, which Snaith sees plunging another 27 percent in Metro Orlando in 2008.”
Anyone who is more optimistic than Snaith takes the prize as head of all housing assclowns.
I read somewhere, that just before the stock market crash of 1929, some fellow by the name of Babson predicted, that the stock market had reached a “”permanently high plateau”"
It’s obvious, that Mr Fishkind, was “”NOT”"in Miami, during the 1926-28 real estate boom & bust…
my alma marta
The guy’s name was Irving Fisher. Babson was a bear.
…Fishkind said, ‘but I think that’s not going to happen because it’s still a very attractive place to live compared to, say, Akron or Detroit.’”
That’s not saying much about the area. It’s like saying that the area is slightly better than a battle zone.
“That’s not saying much about the area. It’s like saying that the area is slightly better than a battle zone.”
Being from Metro-Detroit I 2nd that. There’s isn’t much that’s attractive about the area. Even the “nice” areas pale in comparison to most parts of the country.
They aren’t making any more AKrons or Detroits, so prices will not drop there either.
“Where do they find these douchebags?”
I don’t know, but whatever this guy is on I want some. Palm Beach County prices are so screwed up right now it’s unbelievable.
I had 2 appraisals on a property done within 2 weeks of each other. One came back at $1,045,000 and the other for the same home was $615,000. How do you have more than 40% between two appraisals?
Why were the appraisals done? Appraisers normally just look at who is paying them, and who is going to give them the most business long-term, and come up with whatever price that person wants. They then cherry pick the comparables to come up with that figure.
“Why were the appraisals done?”
It was actually for a mortgage. The first lender didn’t come through with funding and the 2nd lender wouldn’t loan for the sale price.
Bad Andy in your opinion what was the house really worth?
“Bad Andy in your opinion what was the house really worth?”
The house is 4800 square feet with a pool and garage in the western communities. I would say the price of the home by today’s “market value” should be about $600,000. I think true value on the home is closer to $450,000.
Just curious - why “and garage”? - that should be a given for any house these days, especially a new 4,800 sq ft house, should it not? (I assume it’s relatively new since you mention it’s in the western communities, which was everglades a few years ago).
Just curious - why “and garage”?
I always throw and a garage on there because there are many homes (certainly not 4,800 square feet) that are newer in the acreage that do not have an attached garage.
This home is not in the acreage and the garage part probably could have been left out.
4,800 square feet? If it’s a nice house in a good neighborhood, then $100/sq ft is reasonable. So $480K seems fair. $450K ain’t that far off.
” and prices and sales are stable now’ or to that effect…
What?
Hopefully that is just wishful thinking, cause I wouldn’t want to pay till the prices ARE closer to $100sf.
RE: How do you have more than 40% between two appraisals?
The quality and caliber of appraiser’s on the street today is zilch.
The honest, knowledgeable and ethical one’s have long since been run out of business.
Fee’s have been stagnant for 15 years because the state licensing boards glutted the market in order to grab all the application and licensing fee money.
The appraiser which came to appraise my parents home for probate purposes was a some 60YO female ditz, who couldn’t stop babbling about she and bubby’s retirement assets and how she was doing the job for extra pin-money until they could boat off for some southern locale.
Her demeanor and conduct was grossly unprofessional.
The fee for the job was billed @ $300 which meant with a 50% fee split her take was $150.00.
And when you’ve got $150.00 per appraisal hacks runnin’ around measuring values on seven figure properties, you’re goin’ to get exactly what you pay for-which is nothing.
“But Fishkind insists prices won’t come down anytime soon, if at all. ‘Palm Beach (County) will never see price declines,’ Fishkind said. ‘They aren’t making any more Palm Beach.’”
“Palm Beach County’s backlog of unsold homes will disappear fast once it starts moving, Fishkind said. That’s despite Palm Beach County’s housing inventory of five years or more.”
Wait for a major hurricane to hit Palm Beach and inventory will sure go down.
Wait for a major hurricane to hit Palm Beach and inventory will sure go down.
No, wait until the recession in Florida hits full force, that will drive prices downward.
On CNBC, when they interview an i-banker analyst, they will put disclaimers on the screen that demonstrate whether their firm represents the companies that they are discussing. Well, I would love to see the same for Mr. Fishkind. Maybe he owns a couple of properties in Palm Beach County…
I laughed out loud at this comment. It’s a variant of the spin “they aren’t making any more land” oh please 90% of America is rural. I am relocating out of west palm beach into Franklin/Oil City in NW Pennsylvania where prices are reasonable, cheap even. I will never live again in west palm beach due to the crime. I am not sure if ill be moving back to Florida, houses would need to be cheap(maximum $50/foot) and property taxes must become reasonable. I don’t know how long ill stay in NW PA the only “bad” thing is the occasional cold winter days(but it’s 60 degrees there right now lol)
Oil City PA is a far cry from WPB. Many big cities have problems, but you’re not comparing apples to apples. Oil City is not a big city. It’s small town America. Besides, it depends on where you live in WPB. I’ll take the weather here over Oil City any day. The 60 degrees they’re having right now is just a fluke. It’s a gloomy place.
Ive been to Oil city. One local wondered why id leave south FL and I told her have you seen the prices? $150/foot vs. $33/foot…
Surely living in any place “Oil City PA” or some other lower cost living place for awhile while Saving $ and reinforcing your network would be preferable to paying to much in WPB? We can all do something temporarily to restore, reinforce and stockpile? Suntans are so passe !
Thats part of my plan. Theres many other locations id like to live but be darned to pay $300k for a 3/2 house that’s worth less than $100k. Even the rent is too much, I will be broke with no chance to save up. So relocation to an affordable location is the answer for many of us. Why do you think 1000 a day are leaving Florida?
(“But Fishkind insists prices won’t come down anytime soon, if at all. ‘Palm Beach (County) will never see price declines,’ Fishkind said. ‘They aren’t making any more Palm Beach.’” “Palm Beach County’s backlog of unsold homes will disappear fast once it starts moving, Fishkind said. That’s despite Palm Beach County’s housing inventory of five years or more.”)
simply lies! anyone who lives in palm beach county knows that the housing bubble is over. the only difference is that no one wants to drop there prices yet. prices are falling in selective communities and selective homes. the housing prices will have to fall sooner or later or people will have to cut their own grass or flip burgers! seriously, south florida never wants to face realities until it is too late.
Folks won’t drop their prices cuz they’re on a “fixed” income.
Only while they’re still alive…
Another whore to the RE world. I wonder if he meant the city of Palm Beach since the word “county” is in (). Regardless even the island of PB is sucking wind…I have an associate trying to sell for the last 9 mo and no looks no offers meanwhile he has dropped price 20% and still dropping.
whats the difference betrween Mr.Fishkind and a bucket of bullsh_t………………………. The bucket
To their astonishment, the Cataldos say their lender is considering accepting it and forgiving the rest of the loan.”
and now the taxpayers, gun to their heads, will forgive the cataldos
Which taxpayers?
Apparently there’s one that lives in the woods near my house, but no one has ever managed to snap a picture of him. Oh yeah, and then there’s two living in my house, one of them being me.
lol
It’s worse than that. According to the trusty Hillsborough County Property Appraiser website, the Cataldos bought in February 2006 for $565,000 from someone who had purchased the house just three months earlier for $395,000. Even by housing bubble standards something’s odd here.
New kitchen, new bath, new paint. Voila! Up 170K
‘gun to their heads’
More tax whining, IMO. How much does the Fed gov spend each minute? What are you doing to stop that? I thought so.
member cagw-ntu-lp-and our local fcta.org
I guess I could do more
what are you doing ?
I got into politics and devoted years, with no pay, fighting this stuff. Honestly, the only way someone can fairly complain is if they completely opt-out.
I once listened to an elderly woman go on and on about taxes. Then I asked, so you are giving up your social security? Oh no, I earned every penny, she answered.
I then showed her how she had paid in about one percent of what she had drawn, and she lived many years after that.
My point is, the gov is spending much more than we pay in. We can never pay it back, so it will be defaulted on someday, IMO. Are you a deadbeat because of that? Personally, I chose not to lose (any more) sleep over our out-of-control government spending. And I’m not giving up even more years fighting it. I did that when I was young. What to do? Get ready.
I opted out several years ago.
And I’m not giving up even more years fighting it.
There is no use in fighting for something you have no control over. However, you can be vocal and get the word out.
Ben, my grandfather passed away last summer. Always the financial sharpie, he once told me that based on his 1% contributions, he was returned all his contributions plus interest every 7 1/2 months. He retired in 1969 and passed on at 100 years even.
Tax whining is so pathetic.
$200k of “phantom profits/income” is going to result in a $70k+ tax bill. Instead of paying the mortgage, they will pay rent and tax for the next 15 years.
To the DC-area HBBers:
We will have our first meeting tonight Tuesday 7pm at Capitol City Brewing Co on Capitol Hill, 2 Mass Ave NE. More details are in the BitsBucket, so post any followups there.
Is “Lance” from BubbleMeter going to be there? If so, someone slug him in the stomach for me.
Let’s see: auger-inn needs to outsource being an ugly drunk, and crispy needs to outsource boxing. This blog is a rough bunch! Only in an outsourced way, of course.
LOL!!!
“‘They’re willing to give it away if someone will take it,’ Sampson said.”
Ya know, I have this faint memory of someone claiming “There not going to just give it away.” Must have been a dream.
HAHAHAHA. Fishkind, that silly man. hahahaha.
Can he be prosecuted for anything? I know i know, just able to say, hey this took us all by surprise, who knew? But somewhere there has got to be a moneytrail, or email trail, or assistant who knows etc. Obviously he is lying. Where is the wonderful investigative journalism I have grown up hearing about? Arent reporters sorta supposed to ask a question or two?
Arent reporters sorta supposed to ask a question or two?
Not if they value their job!
“Debbie Ferraro of American Guardian Title in Tampa said lenders had been reluctant to accept short sales, but two weeks before Christmas, attitudes changed. ‘Short sale business started going crazy,’ Ferraro said.”
Twas 2 weeks before christmas, when in every house
Not a short sale was accepted, from any louse
The FB’s were hung by the reckless loans, and took no care
In hopes that an upmarket soon would again be there
The lenders were reluctant, all smug in their dread
While visions of no short sales, danced in their heads
What kind of results do you believe will be the case when an inarticulate, uneducated buyer with no money and bad credit enters “Slippery Sam’s Mortgage Company” and signs up for a fraudulent, toxic, liar loan? From 2002 to 2005 it obviously was the way far too many loans were written.
This quote by a “licenced realestate broker” from the Southwest Florida News-Press:
http://tinyurl.com/2sgfv7
How does a creep like this get 9 lives?
“Tony Maltese, a local real estate investor, got in over his head in deals that went bad. He took out $3 million in loans on nine homes. One home has been foreclosed on, despite an offer for a short sale, he said, and another home is likely to be lost in foreclosure soon.”
“He’s now working on two short sale deals, one for a home in Zephyrhills and one for a home in New York. ‘I was reluctant to try this,’ he said. ‘But I’m trying to keep my credit from getting worse.’”
‘But I’m trying to keep my credit from getting worse.’”
He really meant to say, But I’m trying to keep my credit from getting worse, but my full time job as a clerk in retail just does not pay enough for these mortgages.
Perhaps he could start a blog and write about his experiences…
I knew Fishkind in the mid 1980’s when he used to be a financial advisor for local governments. I remember him as an extremely bright, honest and responsible advisor with a good and up-and coming reputation. Then he morphed into the economic guru on Florida’s economy, and was mostly solid in his economic analysis. But ever since the housing bubble started, he seems to have lost his mind. It’s hard to believe it’s the same guy. He’s been way off base with his forecasts lately.
He’s been way off base with his forecasts lately.
That is what happens when you are paid by special interest groups to say what they want the public to hear despite it not being truthful!
The only useful thing grad work taught me was to question all my assumptions, and to set aside all my biases. In the current real estate environment, none of the old rules work and these ‘economists’ refuse to adapt to this brave new world.
They really are the stopped clocks of finance, doomed to be right only twice - at the top and the bottom of the market.
being a renter in florida must be pretty sweet about now
anyone have any info on Summerfield fla
what is the situation in that area ?
tia
It probably makes sense to lease short-term vs. long as the deals are likely to get better. Usually you pay a premium for short-term lease, not so sure now.
“It probably makes sense to lease short-term vs. long as the deals are likely to get better.”
I’ve seen 7 month leases running about the same as a 12 within the same neighborhood or condo development. If you’re using a real estate “professional” to list you’re paying 1 month’s rent. That means you’re only collecting for 6. This is the side of the bubble that I don’t think is examined enough.
I live about 2 miles from Summerfield across 1-75. This place is a joke and the people are dilusional. Just because it is ‘close’ to the villages people still think the property is gold. Prices have dropped, but You couldn’t pay Me to live there.
Just Because they built a ‘Nice Retirement Community’ a few miles from ‘ Crack Town’ doesn’t make everyone want to live in ‘ Crack Town”.
Everyone always advertises, ” Close to the Villages” . People from out of state don’t realize that in Florida, they build McMansions next to ‘Crack Dealers’ old trailers.
Just because You are close to a nice neighborhood, doesn’t mean You are in a nice neighborhood. And You can’t keep the trash out of Your neighborhood.
Anyone who ever buys in Florida ‘ without personally checking out the neigborhood, and surrounding neighborhoods more than likely is in for a big surprise. Trust Me. You wouldn’t believe the cr@p I have put up with in my ‘ Nice lakeside Community” .
What? You mean “Close to the Villages” is a POSITIVE selling point??
“What? You mean “Close to the Villages” is a POSITIVE selling point??”
At least as positive as close to the really stinky swamp.
i couldn’t agree more… of course being in midtown houston is a lot of the same issues, but i’m renting here…
in the tampa area, a friend and i co-purchased a house then sold it 2.5 yrs later…after looking around we had decided on an established gated community. we never had a single problem or concern…we were quite north of tampa proper though…
The Palm Beach Post. “After rising to extraordinary heights in the real estate boom, prices of existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County will remain at an average of around $440,000 at least through 2010, Fishkind said.”
Huh? Inventory is sufficient for Palm beach for the next DECADE! No exaggeration. Prices will drop further in Palm Beach in 2008 than any other county. There is simply no mechanism to absorb the tens of thousands of surplus homes.
Now, do I expect a crash in 2008 there? No. I expect it in 2009.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil, you’ve hit the nail on the head. I don’t know what this Fishsmell guy is thinking. I’ve watched prices in my own neighborhood sink from $379K to $210K in a matter of 18 months. They may not be making more Palm Beach but Palm Beach County has more undeveloped land than we know what to do with.
I don’t know what this Fishsmell guy is thinking.
Bad Andy, it’s a big press for propaganda being put out by the special interest groups, specifically realtors. Fishsmell is paid by these groups.
it’s a big press for propaganda being put out by the special interest groups, specifically realtors.
Don’t ya think the Press is for the banks and credit industry as well as the RE groups? The RE groups don’t stand to make as much money as the Banks and CC industry does, so one hand wipes the other? Methinks so.
Yes, that guy is a total idiot who is totally out of touch with the Palm Beach County market. There have now been significant price drops here. I fully expect to pay 40% to 50% less for a house than I did just a year or so ago. Did he actually waste money on a market analysis? Businesses love wasting money. It reminds me of the report that came out recently that showed people drive slower while they’re on their cell phones. I mean, did they really have to do a study to find that out?
Prices seem stubborn comming down in palm beach. They have come down more in saint lucie. No matter as I don’t like palm beach anyway. NW Pennsylvania, here I come!
There is no sales tax on clothing in PA. That is a good thing for you as you will be doing some serious wardrobe adjustments!
Can’t say the same for snow tires.
You should have moved today while it is 60 deg. It will drop like a McMansion in a day or two.
Take it slow, out-of-towners have a tendancy to overpay quite a bit in these parts.
Little chance ill overpay as $15k to $50k gets you a decent house and im going to negotiate anyway. Snow tires? Ill be taking the bus, carpooling or walking(lots of stores walking distance)
Yes I will need a few coats, so what
As for moving, I could be doing this as early as June
$15-30k will also get you a nice house in Youngstown, Oh, if you like living in a neighborhood where every other house is a crackhouse and there’s shootings almost nightly. Oil City can’t be too great if it’s priced less than the bad parts of Youngstown. Plus if you’re anywhere near I80 I’d plan on an occasional 60 degree day and more like 6-10″ of snow most of the winter. I live in NE Ohio and I’m south of Oil City. Two counties up from us, about across from Oil City has snow most days and gets buried a lot. If we lived any farther north, I’d be out of here in a heartbeat even if I had to work two jobs to do it.
I’ve got nothing against coats.
GW: Oil City can’t be too great if it’s priced less than the bad parts of Youngstown.
A lot of homes have been around 100 years. I expect this means a fair amount of repair work. Still, the town appears to be pretty safe.
Yes, prices have taken a while to come down here, but they’re on the move, down. There have certainly been substantial price reductions in PBC. Here in PBG I’ve seen many houses move from 600K down to 400K. Now that they’ve stopped giving 600K loans to janitors the prices will continue to fall.
Disclosure, I sold my WPB house in 2003 to a GFool for a 50% profit in 2 years LOL. Not cuz I was smart…just had to move for business. In my experience there has been an expectation of higher cost in PB county ever since the 90s. I don’t understand why but I experienced it first hand. Maybe because there is no real metropolis north to orlando, or maybe its the Palm Beach wannabes or maybe they have more expensive crack/ho’s. Because of this denial, I think the market will take longer to turn (hence the 10 month supply) but the express migration of people from metro NY/NE has diminished and there are better deals to be had in Miami anyway so….bend over WPB investors… here it comes.
De-nial. It’s not just a river in Egypt.
“being a renter in florida must be pretty sweet about now”
Being a renter anywhere in the US is pretty sweet right now. FB’s lose 10 years worth of rent in one year on their far flung enterprises.
They all bragged and got cocky so I can’t say I feel bad for them.
I’ll buy when they are ready to realize that “real estate doesn’t always go up”
Haven’t heard the word crash yet in the MSM.
Why be in a hurry when this thing will go sideways for many years after the real “bottom” is found.
“Why be in a hurry when this thing will go sideways for many years after the real “bottom” is found.”
No need to be in a hurry but if you’ve got the money and rent vs. own is close in money, there’s no reason to wait. I still think that based on S. Florida trends that 2000-2001 prices will indeed be where we end up. Some are able to buy at this level right now with a lot of looking…OR…you could buy at 2003 prices like I did and see prices continue to slide…but that’s not so smart.
2001 prices are a ripoff, I say 1998 prices tops. Better yet why even buy in palm beach? You can get a much better deal in saint lucie or cape coral and crime is far lower too. $150k will get you a 1200 square feet 3/2 tract house today. That house is worth $75k at the bottom.
My parents sold their old house for $47/foot in 1995. I stand by my estimate prices will average $70/foot in 2012 or whenever we hit bottom. I still wouldnt live there as the crime sucks and NW PA averages $33/foot *today*
“… NW PA averages $33/foot *today* ”
And some areas of Detroit average $10/foot. I wouldn’t live there for any price.
Well, anyplace that sells for below replacement cost must have some sort of problem.
You can get free houses in Detroit if you foot the $5000+ property tax bill. Basically you are renting from the city. People walk away from those houses when they can’t even give it away for *free*
Don’t even get me started on crime, it’s at or nearly the most dangerous city in America. Everyones running away from that city and walking away from houses. Those houses are left to rot or burn down. It’s a dying city.
Oil City has no such problems, it’s just not a bubbly location. In a few years there will be hundreds of safe, good cities nearly as cheap as Oil City anyway.
RE: Being a renter anywhere in the US is pretty sweet right now
A 800SF rental loft can’t be beat.
With work, time at the gym, time on the road and visiting numerous friends with their recreational properties on weekends (best racket in the world)-who the fook needs a house.
Houses and condos not selling so they are building apartments? Is this nuts, are there people to rent them? What about jobs if they are declining then are the folks that are supposed to rent not going to have a job? It is so confusing, but hey renting is one thing I can count on. Love the freedom and not having an anchor on me makes me feel absolutely great. Plus saving money is icing on the cake.
Not only are they building many new complexes and adding onto existing ones, but so many of the later condo-conversions are converting back. Add to that the thousands of condo units and SFRs being listed for rent, and you’ve got some pretty solid evidence that rents aren’t going to be increasing any time soon.
Same thing happening here in the northern area of Chicago. Many of these old vintage buildings were converted from apartments to condos. But the “condos” weren’t selling. The owner(s) of the building(s) then decided to rent the units out. I have seen two or three properties go from having Countrywide banners out front, offering to sell the units, and then, two weeks later, have “For Rent” signs out on the lawn.
There is one building that vacillates between “Please Buy” and “Please Rent” constantly. We’ve also noticed that on many of the new/not-so-new conversions, the developers are finally removing the “Starting at $ —.—” tagline. I’ve watched a couple of conversions drop the price three times. One billboard started off at $185,000. Then it went to $179,900. Next, it went to $169,900 and I just noticed the other day, the developer has REMOVED the latest asking price!
I guess the developers are finally figuring out ’tis better not to post an asking price.
I think it’s great many are converting back to apartments. I think the condo conversion craze will play havoc on future urban growth as they already have designated where the slums will be in 10 years. How many times have you driven past an apartment complex more than 20 years old (excepting out a few historical gems) and thought, wow that looks like a great place to live! In the old days, as apartments got older in nice neighborhoods they would tear them down and use the land for a higher use. Condo conversions forever dedicate the area as a future slum as they tie up the land which cannot be used for better uses as the place falls apart (note that most apartments are built to have only a 25-40 yr life span). At what point due rising HOA fees make them worthless? It made some developers rich at the expense of our cities.
’tis better not to post an asking price.
Cause unless it says a low low price, no one will come inside. But seriously, no one wants to come inside anyway, no extra $ to be had. Everyone or most are waiting.
Have an acquaintaince whose wife wants the house NOW, so when he closes on a business deal, he is buying NOW. We have already told him to please wait one yr, but he is aimed to please the little Mrs. I don’t understand their relationship dynamics, but seriously, the prices in Palm Springs are dropping slowly. I would hate to see them in one yr saying..’we paid 900k and now it is worth 600k..
and you’ve got some pretty solid evidence that rents aren’t going to be increasing any time soon.
Exactly and that was the point I was making to the reporter from the St. Pete Times. Home prices to rent has a wide disparity in Florida, specifically in the Tampa market and that is the same gage used as P/E is for stocks. More downward preasure for home prices to come!
I find it interesting that they can build apartments that cash flow but not condos that even come close. Does anyone out there know why in the past they could build condos that were X percentage of what they would rent for, but now that can only do so for y perecentage (which is a much higher)?
Granite?
It was the bubble. For a time, buyers expected condo prices to appreciate when in fact, on average, they fail to keep up with inflation. If you consume the housing it is ok, but if you are an “invstor” you are guaranteed a loss over the cycle.
Nice. They’ve got it down to a science.
“‘It’s been very hard unless you want to drop the house and get nothing out of it,’ said English.”
This woman’s sense of entitlement encapsualtes the entire problem for sellers. Just because you are selling your house does not mean you are entitled to a profit. Period.
Get over it, lower the price and maybe your house will sell.
Drop the house and get nothing out of it!
Except a sore foot!
It seems that Fishkind is engaging in a statewide public relations offensive to preserve what remains of his tattered reputation among people who don’t pay him.
“Rep. Susan Bucher, a West Palm Beach Democrat, repeatedly asked why more wasn’t done in response to a March audit report that had raised red flags. ‘Who was minding the store and why didn’t we see those red flags?’”
“Jim Cassady, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink’s chief of staff, said: ‘Representative, that’s a good question. I can’t answer that.’”
The state of the states, sadly.
“They paid $565,000. But a year later, after their property taxes and homeowners insurance skyrocketed, the couple couldn’t afford mortgage payments and put the house on the market. No offer was more than $500,000. The Cataldos kept making payments, but were running out of money.”
“They kept trying to sell the home, but the offers dropped lower. In November 2007, the lender filed a foreclosure lawsuit against the couple. Their best offer from a buyer is $350,000. To their astonishment, the Cataldos say their lender is considering accepting it and forgiving the rest of the loan.”
$565,000 - $350,000 = $215,000 drop in price
(215/565) * 100 = 38 percent drop in one year
Who eats the “loan forgiveness” loss (besides U.S. taxpayers)?
See above, TW. Did you cut a check? Have they even sold the thing? Didn’t the flipper in the story get his? Is the bubble deflating? Isn’t that what matters?
This woe-is-me, life isn’t fair stuff really misses the point.
Bring on the short sales! Keep adjusting those comps downward! Pretty soon it will be impossible for unrealistic sellers to justify their astronomical asking prices. I’m still eyeing a short sale on a house that my dead landlord from my last rental owned. I’m willing to pay about 45% less than she paid in 2005. It’s listed at about 15% off now, which is about where similar asking (wishing) prices are for the area. We’ll see how long it sits. If it were to work out, great. If not, it’s just a house. There are hundreds of other charming houses to choose from, and I love my rental.
The bank eats the forgiven loss, but then deducts it from its own profits and lowers the associated tax liability. So the taxpayer picks up much of the loss in any case, and bank shareholders or the investors. More complicated for securitized mortgages where the legal liability for the losses remain fuzzy, but the government will surely suffer some lost tax remenue here as well.
Fishkind has invented a new real estate term. “This is a new bottom.” I’ve got to list that along with, “Now is a great time to buy.” Very, very funny. What’s next from these economist clowns? “Usually after a third bottom prices tend to increase.”
I think the term “new bottom” refers to the fact that they keep on getting their asses handed to them time and time again.
Well the “new bottom” is all that they can see since their heads are burried up there….
I’d like a new bottom.
‘They shoot up like rockets and come down like feathers.’”
This is a good line. First time I’ve heard it.
The only thing that matters is that they both eventually return to Earth.
Eggsactly.
In a vacuum, a feather will fall just as fast as a rock. The way the air is coming out of this bubble, we’ll be in a vacuum soon.
‘You can get a house under $100,000 in Cape Coral and that’s a good deal. You can put someone in that as a renter and make it work’ as an investment, he said.”
I agree that when you can cash flow a rental we shouldn’t see much further price declines. What I wonder is: Are these sub 100K houses good enough and in decent enough areas to get cash flow? And does it still work when you factor in taxes and insurance?
better do you cash flowin standin up
cape coral still 150+ per square foot
$150/foot? LOL try $110/foot. Theres hundreds of REO’s for around $150k. Not many for $100k unless you want a fixer upper. Give it a few more years and youll be able to get a nice house for around $60/foot
Sounds to me like you’re paying 150 - either 150K for something ready to rent out or 100K + fix up expenses. So you’d have to get over 1000 a month just to handle the mortgage, then add taxes and insurance - does $1500 a month to break even sound about right?
That’s assuming you even find a renter with all the vacancies. Nah, no bottom here. Lets try another 20% off housing prices and try the calculation over again. If that doesn’t work, knock another 20% off. We’ll find a bottom sooner or later. Just be patient.
Cape Coral is $150/sq ft? Then that $100K house must be a 670 sq ft one-bedroom cinder box.
I bet the median CC listing is closer to $100 than $150 per sq ft. Even my old Sarasota neighborhood is down to around $100/sq ft.
But rental inventory is increasing now. So now they have to compete for tennants and they can’t sell.
With Taxes and insurance, upkeep , vacancy rates, advertising costs, or if You hire a rental agent, unless You pay cash or a major chunk down , I don’t see it.
Here in central florida, they’re using the vacant ‘New Houses” the investors from New York bought for ‘meth labs’ , pot houses and stripping the walls and stealing the air conditioners for copper.
How’s that for ‘Cash Flow?’
Real Estate bleeds into
A Horse Bubble?
I thought this was an interesting tidbit on the bleedover from the Housing Bubble,from the OcalaStar-Banner
Three years ago, with the housing market in its heyday and a much better general economy, anyone with a broodmare could join the breeders’ market hoping to cash in on top prices, Fernung said.
Tom Ventura, Ocala Breeders’ Sales general manager and director of sales, said high sales prices started a domino effect.
“As the prices were rising, people at both ends, investors and [buyers], had expectations that they were going to make money,” Ventura recalled. “They were willing to stretch their budgets.”
When stallion owners saw the profits breeders were making, they, in turn, raised their stud fees, which continued to push prices up. But as long as money kept pouring into the market, sales continued to climb.
By about 2004, the value of many horses was inflated. Then the bubble burst.
“In a good year, a $15,000 horse will go for $20,000 to $25,000,” Fernung said. “But in bad years, a $15,000 horse could go for $5,000.”
They were selling both to doctors.
My brother was watching “Holmes on Homes” when I was home for Thanksgiving, and the episode featured this house that had been totally trashed by the renters, who had used it for a huge grow-op. The super-humidity caused massive amounts of mildew and rot, and they drilled big holes through the basement walls to tie into the main electrical line to steal juice. There was pot everywhere. It was funny - to everyone except the lady who owned the house. It seems like it would have been cheaper to torch the place and start over. Wonder how many houses like that there are in Pasco and the south and eastern parts of Hillsborough counties around Tampa?
Just don’t drive if you’re standing next to it while they torch it….At least methlabs tend to be self-torching…
I don’t see it. Think the fantasizing realtor or whoever that is only includes the mortgage and some of the taxes.
$100,000 with 10% down at 6+% for 30 years is about $555. Start adding on the taxes for a non-resident owner and then the enormous costs of insurance in FL and you are easily up to close to $900-1000 per month in carrying costs. Then add in the maintanence- call it $200 a month. Reasonable profit of 10-20? Not bloodly likely unless the place could bring in a rent of $1270 - 1425. (And that is without a rental management company.)
“Rep. Susan Bucher, a West Palm Beach Democrat, repeatedly asked why more wasn’t done in response to a March audit report that had raised red flags. ‘Who was minding the store and why didn’t we see those red flags?’”
“Jim Cassady, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink’s chief of staff, said: ‘Representative, that’s a good question. I can’t answer that.’”
Of all the possible last names to have, being a CFO…
Sink seems oddly appropriate, given the circumstances.
The City MGR in Palm Springs name is Ready.
“They kept trying to sell the home, but the offers dropped lower. In November 2007, the lender filed a foreclosure lawsuit against the couple. Their best offer from a buyer is $350,000. To their astonishment, the Cataldos say their lender is considering accepting it and forgiving the rest of the loan.”
$565,000 - $350,000 = $215,000 drop in price
(215/565) * 100 = 38 percent drop in one year
Who eats the “loan forgiveness” loss (besides U.S. taxpayers)?
I thought the bank ate the loss on shorts sales. How would the taxpayer be responsible for this? Aside from the possibility of tax forgiviness on the price reduction.
The corporation would get a write-off for the forgiveness. But these folk feeling sorry for themselves, (even as the price of the house they want to buy gets cheaper every day) forget that corporations pay a double tax.
So in the interest of fairness, should these folks pony up a double 1040 this year?
Ben, I think Hmmmm is referring to recent legislation which allows a short seller to avoid paying taxes on the differential between the loan and the shortsale.
I’m in favor of this avoidance simply because it will help bring prices down that much faster. If the seller doesn’t have to pay tax on the loss he will more readily agree to the short sale.
I’m NOT in favor of forgiving this tax when the house was HELOC’d to the hilt and the seller has already taken money out, nor am I in favor of tax forgivness when the seller doesn’t live in the home, nor for multiple homes.
This has come up before. The only way this negatively effects you or me is that the lender gets to write it off, and the borrower doesn’t have to take it as income. It’s only for primarys, for those that bought in a time range, etc. And as I said in this thread, what about the double tax on corporations? Should we all pay double to make it ‘fair’?
I’m not in favor of a lot of things, like the GSEs subsidizing this whole market for the last several decades. But I used to do taxes. If you spend your life contemplating the unfairness of the tax code, you will be a sad panda. I like to focus on getting these house prices down.
In most cases of short sales, all heloc’s and equity loans get written off in their entirety. First one recording the lien is the only one that ends up with any money.
Fish sold out….he was tight with the govmint types for years and then the developers bought him for his connections. Feasibility studies and the like. He can’t get his cherry back now.
“Debbie Ferraro of American Guardian Title in Tampa said lenders had been reluctant to accept short sales, but two weeks before Christmas, attitudes changed. ‘Short sale business started going crazy,’ Ferraro said.”
It’s just anectdotal evidence, but if it is the start of something, this could be significant.
Perhaps the Paulson agreement with mortgage servicers has had an effect — official cover to take a loss one way or the other rather than cover it up until the future. Or perhaps the acknowledged price declines have dented the “real estate never goes down” fallacy.
If the latter, will foreclosers in areas where price declines have not been as steep elect to get out while they can?
Or perhaps the banks were just trying to get the properties off their books by the end of the year.
it’s not a beautiful day in the neighborhoods!
a college friend of mine and i purchased a house in lutz, florida (bedroom community just north of tampa)… (i had gone down to help her look for a new home, as she was being transferred from atlanta to tampa)… i had been saving all my money and didn’t really know where i wanted to put it. i had looked at houses in houston in 2001-2002 and was amazed at the cost and thought surely prices would come down…but they just kept on skyrocketing until it seemed almost normal to hear about houses selling for over $100/sgft then $130/sqft, etc… $150/sqft… anyhow, my friend found a house she really liked @ $370K (she makes $125k) but she didn’t feel comfortable taking on such a large expense because she, being smart, is ever aware of possible lay-offs/restructuring, etc… i really liked the house also, and since i (my job is forever safe)work in about 9 different states i need a base anyhow, it doesn’t matter where it is located. which brings us to the purchase…
contract late-april 2004, closed mid-july 2004 - $370,000 3080sqft with custom pool/jacuzzi spillover… on a pond, etc… we each put 50K down and then simply paid off mortgage by march 2006. (yeah, we’re stupid…but it feels so…. SAFE!)
she was “restructured” in jan 2006 with a six month severance, she took a little time off from job searching, because she could afford it then she found a lateral position in another state… i didn’t want the house alone, so i wasn;t interested in buying her out and i was more than ready to get out of the florida market, as in early 2006, our house appraised for about $560,000…yikes! mind-boggling to me. houses would sell, literally within hours of being listed…most never made it past word-of-mouth from one realtor to another…absolutely no advertisment/open house, etc needed!
her new employer, like her previous one ,takes care of all the messiness of a home sale and repurchase for a transfer or relocator… nice little benefit at her level. plus, they pay all realtor commissions on the selling house and closing costs, etc on a new place. turned out to be a life-saver… we put the house on the market in september 2006, with a relo-approved realtor… $539,900… a house down the street from us (not as nice and not on the pond) had sold for $550,000 2 months earlier in in july 2006. we thought we were pricing right! ha… we agreed to a contract for $510K in december… the relo company buys the house from us 2 days before closing with the other side of the contract…except the other side pulls out the day before the closing…the relo company gets stuck with our house, they have to sell it…and they finally did in may 2007… $460K (at the time, it was seen as an absolute steal)! and to watch it ratchet down, zillow zestimate $449K today.
where am i today?…an apartment in houston. the realtors here are only just beginning to admit the slowdown has arrived.
Wow you should buy a house in Houston! Prices have come down to $60/foot! I hope your rent isn’t over $500 a month or your getting ripped off big time!
Yes and you’d better hurry. They aren’t making any more land in Texas. Are the city limits of Houston in Ennis yet?
lol, no thanks. i think i’ll soon be shacking up with my high school sweetheart… a new house and an old flame would be way too much for me at one time! btw…i’m in midtown houston… $60/sqft might buy me a nice lean2…
lenders had been reluctant to accept short sales, but two weeks before Christmas, attitudes changed. ‘Short sale business started going crazy,
Merry Christmas. All I wanted for Christmas was a dose of reality.
“But Fishkind insists prices won’t come down anytime soon, if at all. ‘Palm Beach (County) will never see price declines,’ Fishkind said. ‘They aren’t making any more Palm Beach.’”
Oh, really? That’s interesting. My 2/2 Palm Beach county condo sold for $210K in late ‘06, and an identical unit recently changed hands for $195K. In late ‘05, these units were going for $250K. Prices in Palm Beach cannot go down? Tell it to the person who bought my condo. She’ll be happy to hear she hasn’t REALLY lost at least $15K in equity in the last 12 months. BTW, these units were going for around $125K circa 2002.
“They kept trying to sell the home, but the offers dropped lower. In November 2007, the lender filed a foreclosure lawsuit against the couple. Their best offer from a buyer is $350,000. To their astonishment, the Cataldos say their lender is considering accepting it and forgiving the rest of the loan.
I’m starting to think that short sales are the best solution to this problem and should be encouraged… any thoughts?
“I’m starting to think that short sales are the best solution to this problem and should be encouraged… any thoughts?”
Could be best for the FB…but if this is encouraged many FB’s who can actually afford the mess they’ve put themselves in would short sale as well. That mean a terrible problem for the banks who can least afford it right now.
A shot sale should continue to be an option for those who will *without doubt* forclose in the near future.
Andrew:
It is happening much more then the public thinks. Banks have to get folks into these homes a reasonable offer with good credit gets buyers a home right now, i agree this will sell homes and take some pressure off.
Years ago it was called a fire sale, today with the new code words it is called the short sell?
Short sales are great, however I’ve noticed banks idea of a short sale and what the prop should actually sell for in this market are two different things. Banks are still trying to make back most of their investment.
Rant On!
Rant Off!
True facts from personal experience. I bought a condo in West Hollywood ca. in 1989. Bad timing on my part but I was living there so it was okay and (in those days) affordable even though there had been a boom to bust. However, nothing like the boom to bust we are seeing now (with worse to come).
The condo next to mine was bought by someone who was under contract to a studio. Price was $325,000. Cut a long story short, the guy’s contract ended and the studio didn’t re-new. By now (just like now) the bust had arrived. Similiar condo’s were selling for $295,000. He held on. Prices for similiar condo’s dropped to $250,000. He held out for a while longer but struggled because he couldn’t find another job. Finally, he bailed out and went bankrupt.
The condo stayed empty for a long time (just like properties are staying empty now) until, eventually, the bank sold it for $190,000. That was in 1995 if my memory serves me correctly. Then prices were stagnant for about 4 years. Yes, 4 years with very little price movement. The lender took a haircut of $135,000 PLUS the cost of hoa fees, etc, while the condo remained empty.
Bear in mind that was a MILD bust compared to this horror story. I was able to hold on and after 10 years the price I originally paid for my condo was reached. Bear in mind those numbers and remember that was a MILD bust compared to this one AND property was affordable.
Even if someone bought at the top (like me) most could afford to hold on because the prices were not - how can I say - laughable. One might be annoyed, pissed off and angry for being stupid at buying at the top but it was not really a big struggle to keep it going because prices WERE affordable. In this boom to bust, the prices are NOT affordable if you bought at the top. Not even close to affordable.
Look at that $325,000 to $190,000 again because they are worth thinking about for anyone contemplating buying. The guy next to me bought his condo at the top - the lender sold at the bottom. Good exampIes of extremes. It shows where property prices can go and where they can finally end up in a MILD boom to bust.
Forget Godfather Paulson. He’s full of crap and only interested in helping the other financial gangster “families” on Wall Street. They don’t give a sh*t if you buy at the top and struggle as long as they have a place in the life boat - at someone elses expense.
It would be no surprise to me to see (in my area for instance) that the top prices of $750,000 could easily fall to $250,000 to $300,000 over the next few years and that $750,000 “top” will not be seen again, considering the magnitude of this boom and bust when compared to the 90’s boom and bust - for 10 to 15 years.
“Now is NOT a good time to buy.”
CFC stock is below $7 - headed toward $5. Soon they will be removed from the S&P 500..
Bankruptcy rumors. My god. I sold that out of my IRA at 32.
Don’t usually like to toot my own horn, but got to on this one. I’ve been shorting CFC with high volume (for me anyhow) since $40 and making a killing. The writing’s been on the wall for some time for them - bankruptcy is a foregone conclusion.
That being the case - I’m wondering about one thing - what happens on short positions of companies that cease to trade, or perhaps move to secondary markets? Does the ability to cover just go away, and your account get credited with the full short price? Or does it linger as an uncloseable position? For fear of the latter I’m thinking of closing out my shorts at say $3 or so, but wondering what would happen if I just let it ride all the way down.
Better buy back that Countrywide stock while you can-they’re not making any more and you can’t expect the Tan one to give it away.
I’m sorry, but this Fishkind dude is more confused than three unkempt blind lesbians in a fismarket
crush
Not funny
fishmarket
Its 48 degrees today in San diego.
Its never been that cold here.
It reminds of the bay area.
Have you considered moving to Ohio? It was 64 degrees here today.
Yeah, 68 here in my area of Ohio. Had to take my jacket off cause it was too hot.
LOL 48 is cold? Not at all! And well that’s winter for you!
It can get down to 0 in Oil City/Franklin where im moving. I wouldn’t touch those house prices in San Diego and theres too much crime and illegals anyway.
No it can get down to -25 to -30 chill factor in Oil City. Last year, way south of Oil City we had to close schools 4 days in a row last Feb because of Chill factors. Make sure you get a garage or you’ll be calling a tow truck a lot.
There’s no place like Palm Beach. There’s no place like Palm Beach. There’s no place like Palm Beach … unless you take a drive up and down the Florida coastline.
Suddenly, there are a lot of Palm Beaches along the way.