January 9, 2008

If You’re A Buyer, You’re In The Admiral’s Seat

The Rocky Mountain News reports from Colorado. “The average price of a previously owned single-family home in the Denver area fell 2 percent last year, apparently the first time the area has seen a year- over-year decline. The median price also suffered the first year-over-year decline. ‘Yes, pricing is down on residential,’ said Gary Bauer, one of several people to complete a report on Tuesday. ‘But if you look at the tremendous numbers of foreclosures, the tightening credit and what is happening in other markets with really big problems, I’m very happy.’”

“The market for homes priced at more than $1 million had been strong during the past couple of years and the first half of 2007, but sales for expensive properties began to slow in the fall, according to data from Coldwell Banker Colorado.”

“There are 1,759 single-family homes priced at $1 million or more on the market, according to broker Jim Nussbaum. ‘Buyers are more picky,’ Nussbaum said. ‘You can’t be sloppy in your pricing.’”

“Ed Jalowsky, who recently launched Hottest Homes Realty, said the market is the best buying opportunity he has ever seen. ‘If you’re a buyer, you’re not in the captain’s seat, you’re in the admiral’s seat,’ Jalowsky said.”

“Jalowsky said he is getting ready to list a home in the Crestmoor neighborhood in east Denver for about $480,000. The home had sold in 2006 for $569,000, he said.”

“Broker Beverly Meade saw a foreclosed home near Sloan’s Lake advertised at $39,000, which last month sold for $43,000.”

“‘If you have money, it is a good time to buy,’ Meade said. ‘If you are in foreclosure, you are not in a position to benefit from today’s market. This market is not unlike the late ’80s in Denver. It’s a trippy time. There are some amazing deals out there.’”

The Gazette from Colorado. “There’s been plenty of doom and gloom in the housing market lately, but for those who are in a position to buy, the world is a happy place. Oh, yes, there most certainly is such a thing as a homebuyer in El Paso County.”

“Ent Federal Credit Union schedules a seminar for first-time homebuyers, and loan officer Tom Bechtel acknowledged that he’s seen larger crowds than the five people who showed up Saturday.”

“Bechtel was joined by Tony Deppe, a buyer/listing specialist. ‘There is a ton of inventory out there, and prices are at an all-time low,’ Deppe said. ‘It is an excellent time to buy a house.’”

The Fort Morgan Times from Colorado. “In the final analysis, Morgan County was hit hard by a stagnant home sales market, as was the rest of the country.”

“For a while, prices for Morgan County homes were increasing dramatically, but they are now falling. In fact, the problem for some people is that they agreed to pay a price higher than the property is worth now, said Colette Schilling, owner of Action Realty in Fort Morgan.”

“‘We’re finding it a challenging market,’ she said. ‘There is no doubt prices have dropped.’”

“Bruce Bass, a broker in Brush, takes a longer view, saying the company’s sales are down 28 percent since the housing bubble burst and that 2004 was the last good year, although sales have picked up some lately.”

“The real downturn is for investor sales. Many of the foreclosures were to investors and those still holding onto property are planning to hold properties and rent for a few years, Schilling said.”

“‘Price is the driving force right now,’ said Twyla Tiffany of Danford Realty in Fort Morgan.”

The Arizona Republic. “City administrators’ concerns unfolded as they turned to the first topic on the agenda: city budgets. The group had barely started eating when Queen Creek City Manager John Kross stood to ask how neighboring cities planned to balance their budget.”

“‘This is maybe not a lunchtime topic…(but) housing is in the tank,’ said Kross, emphasizing the local impact of a national housing crash that has created the largest inventory of unsold homes since World War II and caused some to predict the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.”

“‘We’re considering mothballing fairly significant capital projects,’ he said.”

“Phoenix City Manager Frank Fairbanks said Phoenix will meet within the next week to confirm budget projections but said he expects ’several hundred’ layoffs this spring to manage budget shortfalls.”

“Both single-family and multifamily housing construction will continue to be slow through 2008, according to predictions.”

“‘Obviously the credit crunch or financing is an issue, on top of which is the general economy,’ said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.”

“The current slow market is because of tight financing and the response to the hypermarket that began in 2003. The market was overbuilt, Butler said.”

“‘We’re paying the price for having a good time,’ he said. ‘It’s like having a good time on New Year’s Eve so you pay the price on New Year’s Day.’”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Arizona’s mortgage industry was one of the hardest-hit in the country last year, with more than 2,000 jobs lost to company closures and layoffs.”

“The drop was spurred by massive layoffs at Countrywide Financial, American Home Mortgage Investment and Tuscon-based First Magnus Financial, the report states. Countrywide alone saw a net job loss of 11,665 last year, while bankrupt First Magnus lost 5,940 jobs.”

“The state had seen some of the highest home appreciation in the country, along with corresponding growth in lending, said MortgageDaily.com publisher Sam Garcia. So when the market turned, it suffered one of the largest tumbles in mortgage originations.”

“In 2006, Arizona lenders hired 3,791 people, compared with just 50 last year, he said. When business was good, lenders overstaffed and opened offices everywhere, said Bryan Madsen, a loan officer at AmeriFirst Financial in Mesa. Then, the big lenders came in and started hiring, he said.”

“Now, the existing-home market has slowed drastically, and many borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, eliminating refinance opportunities and slowing business.”

“‘We’re gridlocked right now,’ Madsen said.”

“The ones leaving haven’t established themselves in the community as reliable sources, said Elaine Paddy with Alliance Home Mortgage in Mesa. Some also haven’t adjusted their lifestyles and budgets to the smaller incomes they’re bringing in, Paddy said.”

“‘The industry has changed,’ she said. ‘Work harder, work smarter or find another job.’”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “The number of single-family homes listed for sale in Las Vegas dropped to 22,005 in December from 23,494 in November, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported. Inventory is up 23.4 percent from December 2006.”

“The MLS showed 879 home sales in December, down 46.5 percent from the same month a year ago and the fourth straight month under 1,000 sales.”

“Condo and townhome listings increased 14 percent from a year ago to 5,508 in December.”

“Foreclosures have driven the single-family home median price down to $260,000, a 15.1 percent decline from a year ago. Median condo prices are down 5.1 percent to $185,000.”

“December’s statistics may not be a true reflection of the marketplace, association President Patty Kelley said. December is traditionally a slow month, she said, and a large number of homes are vacant and owned by investors, banks and other lenders who sold last month at deeply discounted prices.”

“‘More than one-fourth (228) of the homes had either been repossessed or were “short sales,’ Kelley said. ‘I believe that percentage may actually be closer to 40 percent of all home sales since banks are under enormous pressure to get these properties off their books.’”

“‘In any case, this has resulted in significant numbers of homes selling well below market value and appraised value, creating an artificially low median price,’ Kelley said.”

“The association reported 167 condo units sold in December, down 55.1 percent from a year ago.”

The Las Vegas Business Press. “There were 5,143 luxury condo units completed in the third quarter, including the $195 million, 428-unit Allure Las Vegas.”

“Meanwhile, there were roughly 14,388 units actively selling in the third quarter, with 12.3 percent being located along the Strip. Another 14,163 units are proposed for future development.”

“There have been 89 luxury condos sold year-to-date with a median price of $860,000, or $502 per square foot, Restrepo Consulting Group reports.”

“Reeling residential and subprime mortgage markets have increased the number of renters in the Las Vegas Valley. Potential home buyers required to come up with substantial down payments amid tightening credit are increasingly turning to high-end multifamily rentals, reports the Bentley Group, a local real estate advisory firm.”

“Yet, the 23,494 homes listed for sale last month have created a ’shadow’ rental market. Roughly 25 percent or more of those units are being used as rentals until the housing market rebounds.”

“Stagnant incomes have also aided the rental market. The median household income for Southern Nevada newcomers is $43,831, according to the 2007 Las Vegas Perspective.”

“Home sale list prices, meanwhile, averaged $306,000 in November, reports the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, making the dream of home ownership elusive.”

“‘Although the residential market softened dramatically in 2007, household incomes and wages haven’t risen since 1990 when adjusted for inflation,’ said (consultant) John Restrepo.”

“A Boston-based investor recently bought the 18-year-old, 256-unit Martinique Bay Apartments in Henderson for $31.85 million, or $124,414 per unit. The 12.92-acre, 278,840 square-foot complex is mapped for condominiums. The sale price equals $114 per square foot.”

“‘While many continue to paint a ‘doom and gloom’ picture of the Las Vegas real estate market, fundamentals within the industry remain healthy,’ Bentley said.”

“There are 5,581 units on lease-up, 2,521 units under construction and 7,992 units planned for development, Bentley said. ‘Absorption entered positive territory for the first time since mid-2006, closing the third quarter of 2007 with 345 net move-ins,’ said Carl Sims, an apartment specialist.”

The Deseret News from Utah. “The Utah housing market is one of the strongest in the nation, and that trend is especially evident in Salt Lake City’s thriving condominium market. In the past year, the average sales-price increase in the 11 zip-code areas for Salt Lake City ranged from a modest 4 percent in the east-side Emigration Canyon area to a whopping 103 percent in the Foothill/Parleys area.”

“‘This kind of real estate was undervalued here for many years and a worthy alternative purchase for first-time buyers who can’t afford homes,’ said real estate agent Babs De Lay. But prices have increased so much now, she said, that ‘you take an area like Glendale or Rose Park, and you take a look at how much property values went up, affordable housing is really hard to find.’”

“De Lay said prices may increase even further as condo projects now under construction are completed this year and next year, including The Metro near Library Square and The Marmalade, which will compete with other high-end projects like the condos at The Gateway.”

“Wells Fargo economist Kelly Matthews said that an increasing number of Utahns are looking for an alternative to a family home in suburbia.”

“‘There is certainly a larger group of people not as worried about having a large family right away who recognize a long commute is just an impossibility,’ he said.”

“Carla Weise, economic development director of the Downtown Alliance, said the Salt Lake area is now attracting a hip, younger crowd who prefer the spoils of city life.”

“‘They like urban living, art, culture, entertainment, the night life,’ she said, ‘and being able to walk to a Jazz game, being able to walk to a restaurant or hop on TRAX and go up to a Utes game.’”




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121 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-01-09 13:03:48

‘Absorption entered positive territory for the first time since mid-2006, closing the third quarter of 2007 with 345 net move-ins,’ said Carl Sims, an apartment specialist.’

2006. But these Vegas guys will try to tell you 6,000 people move there every month.

‘The Atalon Group has acquired the assets of 3,592-acre Lake Las Vegas for an undisclosed amount after the developer defaulted on a nearly $540 million loan last fall. Lake Las Vegas was conceived about 40 years ago by actor and sometime hotel owner J. Carlton Adair, who originally bought the land and water rights to develop what he dubbed Lake Adair. But Adair declared bankruptcy and another developer failed to complete the project before Santa Barbara, Calif.-based Transcontinental Properties bought it in 1990.’

‘The Reno-Sparks area’s industrial real estate market struggled against a weakening economy in 2007, and the coming year promises more uncertainty, according to a report released this week. There’s trepidation, too, Perkins said, in looking ahead to the new year.’

‘There are a lot of nervous developers and there’s just not that much in the pipeline,’ he said. ‘There’s a lot of apprehension over the economy. It’s the same thing we see with consumer spending. That trickles down to this sector as well.’

‘The final months of 2007 offered a glimpse of what’s in store for the Valley’s office market this year. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the office vacancy rate climbed to 13.9 percent — up from 11.1 percent a year ago, according to a new report. The past couple of years were very robust, said Tom Adelson, executive vice president at the brokerage. ‘We were kind of a darling of the real estate world,’ he said. ‘Developers were very aggressively looking at Phoenix.’

‘A total of 4.57 million square feet of space was under construction in the fourth quarter of 2007, a jump of more than 1 million square feet from the prior quarter, the report shows. The closures and consolidations of various mortgage companies and other real estate-related firms also have added to the supply of Valley office space.’

‘With major retail developers eyeing the southeast edge of Pima County, local officials say they will only help Benson’s future. The Arizona State Land Department recently announced a project they have been working on with Phoenix mall developer Westcor to create a master plan for 12,000 acres of land on what is called the Houghton Road Corridor. Developing the entire parcel, which Tucson city officials say will amount to a second city.’

‘Besides commercial growth helping the city, Roush said he also feels the continued residential growth in Vail and east Tucson will benefit Benson. ‘With the bigger population, they definitely have a bigger workforce and we want to attract more qualified people,’ he said. ‘Really when you think about it, if people in California are willing to make that commute from San Diego to Los Angeles for work, the drive from Tucson to Benson is a piece of cake.’

Comment by EmperorNorton_II
2008-01-09 13:34:21

Car-go Cult

‘Really when you think about it, if people in California are willing to make that commute from San Diego to Los Angeles for work, the drive from Tucson to Benson is a piece of cake.’

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 13:41:46

You’ve got that right. And, the trouble is, I-10 is a major truck route. And when of those babies jack-knifes, you can forget about getting anywhere for a few hours.

 
Comment by cayo_ron
2008-01-09 14:55:34

Oh yeah, because there are just sooo many people commuting from SD to LA every day.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-09 13:23:02

Who Benefits From Soaring Mortgage Refinance Volume?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/mortgage-RATE-arm/index/a/15475

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:33:39

Lots of applications but those are unlikely to result substantial increased loan originations as many of those applications are people making lots of applications knowing they’ll be rejected for all/most of them.

Comment by Neil
2008-01-09 16:10:27

yea… Freddie and Fannie require either a down payment or documentation. When they start applying that 5% extra required for a declining market everywhere… it will really dry things up.

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-09 13:24:21

“De Lay said prices may increase even further as condo projects now under construction are completed this year and next year, including The Metro near Library Square and The Marmalade, which will compete with other high-end projects like the condos at The Gateway.”

Supply up — prices up more — yup, they’ve repealed the laws of economics in Salt Lake City.

Comment by friar john
2008-01-09 16:12:42

The Marmalade?

The Tan Man must be all over that one…the grandkids need somwhere to live after grandpa pays for their college tuition. :)

 
 
Comment by Former FB
2008-01-09 13:24:46

We’re not selling much, but at least prices are still high.

!?!?!

Comment by Aqius
2008-01-09 14:23:40

I am now conditioned to just fast forward to the end of any Real Estate persons comments to see the inevitable ending phrase:

RE Person; ” Well, you know, blah blah, yadda yadda yammer stammer …. blahh yammer … spin, hype, lie, deny, … yammer .. more yammering .. . more filler … then …wait for it .. wait ..for .. it …
ITS A GREAT TIME TO BUY !! end comment ”

If the NAR would just print out a list of numbered responses, we could all save a lot of ink, as they are all pretty much the same. Like ordering a #3 combo at Mcdonalds.

On a final note, I should trademark the phrase ” ITS A GREAT TIME TO BUY” and retire a wealthy man in say … ohhh, about 2 weeks.

 
 
Comment by Devildog
2008-01-09 13:25:10

“Salt Lake area is now attracting a hip, younger crowd who prefer the spoils of city life.”

“‘They like urban living, art, culture, entertainment, the night life,’ she said, ‘and being able to walk to a Jazz game, being able to walk to a restaurant or hop on TRAX and go up to a Utes game.’”

Yes, and those hip youngsters shouldn’t be buying, they should be renting. And now that the funny money is evaporating that’s exactly what they’ll be going back to.

Comment by New in NM
2008-01-09 13:48:54

LOL. Hip, younger crowd in SLC. This realtor is probably trying to sell in the new large downtown condo developments adjacent to the railroad - one that has huge freight trains going thru all night. Or the condos just blocks from Pioneer Park which is basically downtown’s drug market and not far from the grungy start of State Street which is where you go to get your ho to go with your score. Then there’s this condo development we passed on West Temple on the way to the airport - real convenient to the local plasma center.

Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-09 13:57:37

Yes… the Realtor is basically inventing customers. I love it when people make up total oxy-moronic crap. I haven’t heard of any hipsters that I know who mention SLC, let along want to move there. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves: just because it’s a city doesn’t mean it is automatically awesome and ‘hip’.

 
Comment by Brandon
2008-01-09 14:15:29

Does SLC have a hip, young crowd?

Comment by Dave of the North
2008-01-09 14:50:07

Aren’t all the hip, young Mormons doing 2 year missionary stints in other countries?

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Comment by TOT
2008-01-09 16:00:19

Yeah,
But when they get back they aren’t hip, if they ever were. They are encouraged to get married and have kids. Most hippness and individual identity is lost under the pressure to conform and not make waves. Then after a couple years and 40 pounds heavier they seek happiness watching football and driving their SUVs. Ownership of a large heavily mortgaged house is a status symbol in Utah. If that doesn’t make you happy, there’s always Prozac. Utah is number one for anti-depressant use.
BTW: Prowl around on Craigslist using search terms like “appraised”, “appraisal”, “construction”, “desperate”. Utah is already crashing. I have yet to see an article in desnews that IMO is not just a bunch of buy buy buy cheerleading.

 
Comment by Zionrenter
2008-01-09 17:54:16

You hit the nail on the head. Here in St George the market is crashing hard. Most FB dont know how much under water they are. They builders keep building and have the idea of “If you build it they will come”. In fact is an example http://stgeorge.craigslist.org/rfs/532789450.html

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-01-09 15:00:15

A small one. Lives north of town in a bunch of little houses.

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Comment by the_economist
2008-01-09 15:14:29

Im pretty hip…Maybe I should move to Salt lick.

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Comment by Faster Pussycat, Sell Sell
2008-01-10 00:40:33

Yeah, I think I’ll give up my NYC rental to move to SLC.

I heard it’s full of hip-replacements!

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:18:17

Inventing buyers……

http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articles/0102biz-abg-condocachet0102.html

“Urban lifestyle big draw for luxury-condo buyers”

In the attached blog I ask why anyone would buy for $4K a month when they can rent a couple blocks away for $1000-1200 a month, and I ask why anyone would pay twice the price for 1/3rd the space of a SFH 5-10 miles away.

The answer I got?

“So, if I’m 24 years old, making $80-100k out of college, single and looking for a place to live…”

Okay, now how many 24 y/o people that are making $80-100K a year, single and plan to stay that way THAT ARE DUMB ENOUGH to pay 3x rent to live a couple blocks closer to the clubs and work?

They’re just inventing customers!

At least they aren’t talking about the “move up market” like they are for the $600K McMansions in the sticks…. Great, now those move up buyers just need to be abel to sell their starter home for $350K to Juan 6pack that makes $50K a year. What? Juan can only afford $150K? But I need $350K to make the payments manageable on my $600K McMansion!

Comment by Brandon
2008-01-09 14:29:31

I heard the ultimate buyers are young, hip 24-32 yo semi-retired, recent college graduate baby boomers from California with 80k-120k income who are are upsizing and downsizing and enjoy relaxed and active lifestyles in the wide-open spaces of a dynamic, up and coming downtown core. Research shows this is the fastest growing demographic. These buyers are sophisticated and in the know.

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Comment by phillygal
2008-01-09 14:44:15

- and edgy.

The edgy buyers will be upset when they find out they were omitted.

 
Comment by vile
2008-01-09 15:26:28

That will make them edgier!

 
Comment by lavi d
2008-01-09 15:43:04

Urban Demographic Math

Sketchy - Creepy = Edgy
Edgy + Cynicism = Hip
Boomer - Xer = Young
Hip + Condo = Urban

Um. Where was I going with this?

 
Comment by tresho
2008-01-09 17:32:51

If you keep doing that, you’ll wind up here.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2008-01-09 14:58:30

Okay, now how many 24 y/o people that are making $80-100K a year, single and plan to stay that way THAT ARE DUMB ENOUGH to pay 3x rent to live a couple blocks closer to the clubs and work?

That describes almost every single condo buyer in the DC area.

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Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-09 15:29:16

Wanting to make (entitled to) $80k -$100k and actually making it are two different animals.

First, the MSM hypes what a few “well-placed” grads make out of school to sell ad space - the higher education community is NOT about to question that. Why? Because if word ever got out how many actually might make that right out of school - how many do you think would keep lining up to take on enormous student debt?

Second, the Urban Condo thing is a fad. I know this because that’s where I live and I’ve watched evolve firsthand. It is tenuous lifestyle in a city as big as Chicago (HOA, taxes, neighbors, building quality, location, etc.) and to try to sell it in SLC is a complete and utter joke. When this bust is through this “hip and edgy” condo thing will be in history’s dustbin.

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Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-09 15:33:55

This is the same story in Nashville. Last time I was there, they had a number of new ‘luxury lofts” that started at 300k and up to 500k. The only problem is that a scant 10 miles away or even less if you look in the eastern part of the city are SFH’s for 150k or less. Why in the hell would anyone pay 400k for some concrete USSR style housing unit when they can pay a dramatic 4 times less for quadruple the house? STUPID!

oh- and by the way, Nashville is DEAD after 5:00PM. No night life, so no real excuse to pay for the privelage.

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Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-09 23:31:47

I think that what they really want to say is “This condo will get you sexed”. You’re at the club, you ask a girl back to your $400K condo that is across the street… she knows you’re loaded and agrees. Once there, her knees are made weak by the stainless, granite, the view… Bam!, you’re tapping the hottest, sexiest, game in town!

Would it work? I guess.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by AdamCO
2008-01-09 13:29:42

My favorite: “Price are at an all-time low.”

A simple, straight-forward lie. Realtors need to get over any perception they have that they are different than used-car sales people.

Comment by sandy_valley
2008-01-09 13:35:50

What he really meant to say was that Prices are at an alltime low for 2008.

s

 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 13:46:58

EXACTLY!!!!

This is the Gazette Telegraph from Colorado Springs. I bought a 2400 sqft house there in Cimeron Hills (80915) back in late ‘93 for $92K. Early ‘92 the house had a value of under $75K.

Had to have it re-appriased back in ‘01 when I lost it to the ex. in the divorce. It came in with a value of $140K.

Check Zillow (I know, but it isn’t off by 100%) says current market is $200k, down from peak of $210K a year ago. Zillow’s estimate for ‘01 shows $130-150K… our $140K official appraisal is dead center.

So, to say a house that is “worth” $200K is at an all time low is just insane….

Take the $75K in ‘92 and inflate to today = $112K.
Take the $92K in ‘93 and inflate to today = $130K.

Liars like this should be tarred and feathered!

Comment by How Low Can You Go
2008-01-09 15:04:55

“All-time low” should be less than what the house was first purchased for.

 
 
 
Comment by AZCharlie
2008-01-09 13:29:51

Jay Butler from ASU is the desert version of that NAR Yun fellow.
There could be soup lines and the guy would be saying its a hot time to buy.
And the jokers at this weekly RE radio show in Phoenix are counseling folks on air about buying SFHs for rentals!!! Podcasts are available here http://206.173.89.213/billiannelli_com/227812.html

In there “good news” section from the latest show, they are referencing NAR’s Yun as a guy who says the bottom is about in and its time again to get in before values run again. Unbelievable.

I’m going to call into these guys to bring up some points. Wonder how long till I get hung up on.

 
Comment by aimeejd
2008-01-09 13:32:29

“If you are in foreclosure, you are not in a position to benefit from today’s market.”

Gee, really? Thanks for that insight, Captain Obvious!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 13:43:03

Here’s another quote from the Captain:

“The ones leaving haven’t established themselves in the community as reliable sources, said Elaine Paddy with Alliance Home Mortgage in Mesa. Some also haven’t adjusted their lifestyles and budgets to the smaller incomes they’re bringing in, Paddy said.”

 
Comment by climber
2008-01-09 14:31:00

Actually, I disagree. Many people in CA who have non recourse loans are going to be able to substantially reduce their housing costs by letting the bank have the house and renting. They’ll get an instant boost in monthly cash flow. Congress is likely taking away their tax hit to boot, and they can save the extra money for a downpayment on another house after prices come down to reality - by then their credit should have been reestablished as well.

 
 
Comment by LFSD
2008-01-09 13:33:56

“‘More than one-fourth (228) of the homes had either been repossessed or were “short sales,’ Kelley said. ‘I believe that percentage may actually be closer to 40 percent of all home sales since banks are under enormous pressure to get these properties off their books.’”

“‘In any case, this has resulted in significant numbers of homes selling well below market value and appraised value, creating an artificially low median price,’ Kelley said.”

So the prices that people actually pay in the market are ‘artificial’ because they are lower than ‘market value’.

Could I get a Realtor’s definition of those terms because that makes absolutely no sense.

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 13:51:35

Market price = a value at least 7% higher than last year’s market price. See also: “Real estate only goes up.” and “7% a year is in the bag”.

Artificial price = Any transaction below the Realtor approved “market price”. See “Market price” above.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 14:03:20

I can see how that might actually make sense, depending on what you mean by “market value”. I addressed a similar thought in the bits bucket for today.

Typically, I consider “market value” to mean the price at which something would sell after a reasonable period of time on the market. “Reasonable period of time” would vary depending on the market in question and would be determined I think by tradition.

Lets assume the typical period of time for a house to be on the market before it sells is 5 months (I don’t know what the actual number is). And further assume a seller has an interest in selling a house RIGHT NOW, say in a week. In order to sell a house that quickly, I think its safe to say one would have to sell at a lower price than if one were able to be more patient.

Now, I don’t know if banks actually act that way. It may be that banks can allow those assets to be on the market for whatever is the appropriate period of time for a house to sell, but if they are not, then they will have to sell at some discount to get it sold faster. The faster you want something to sell, the lower you need to make the price.

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:22:01

A normal market has 3-5 months’ of houses on the market. PHX is now above 19 months’ supply (58K on the market selling at 3k a month).

It is safe to say that ANYONE wanting to sell in a normal amount of time (3 months), be they bank or other, will have to undercut what an appraisal would say is “current market”.

Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 14:26:30

Yeah, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying we aren’t still heading down, just sort of trying to parse that statement.

In context, even if banks are selling “below market” (not just below a realtors estimate) in some absolute sense, market prices DO change, and today’s “below market” might be tomorrows “above market”.

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Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:53:05

The bank is not going to get 3 offers and then take the lowest. They are going to market the house, then take an offer that they think is the best they can do.

The best they can do, IS the current market.

That said, the sales report will report the houses consition. So, if the foreclosure was stripped and in horrid condition, then when an appraiser will adjust neighboring houses accordingly.

For example. I take pretty good care of my house. The guy behind me is a hillbilly. I keep my pool up year round and just had it replastered last spring, while his pool is a misqueto pit 6 months of the year (I’ve had the city out fining him the last 2 winters in a row… seems to be doing better this year keeping the misquitos down but it is still kind of green). Appearently the refil valve on his evap cooler is shot becuase he has the garden hose on his roof and a constant dribble of watter coming off the roof.(even in winter, why the heck would he not turn it off?) The tiles are mossy and I’m sure the under-roofing is rotting out. His dog has dug big holes and destroyed anything resembling grass or graveled areas. Yard is packed with old junk like old washing machine and a car up on blocks.

If this is the outside, imagine the inside.

So, let’s say his house goes into foreclosure and sells for $180K-200K. Well, that does not mean my $230K “appraised value” is shot. It would take AT LEAST $30K-40K to bring is house up to the condition of mine.

 
Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 15:18:07

The best they can do, IS the current market.

Perhaps you are right on this. I don’t accept that market value is de facto defined as “most recent sales price” (see below on more thoughts about that). However, it may be you are correct that the foreclosure auction process does fetch the market value.

With regard to the foreclosure sales process, I don’t know all the details about how it works, and appreciate the additional information. Still, I would guess that most people are scared away from auctions. Also, I believe it to be the case that auctions are mandated by law typically. Is it not possible that at least some of the houses sold in a foreclosure auction, considering the two issues I just listed, would sell for a bit more if sold in a conventional manner?

If the answer to that question is unequivocally “no”, then the foreclosure auction does a good job of finding the market price. If they answer is yes, it is possible, then we may have some cases where a house sells for less than FMV.

 
 
 
Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-09 14:45:27

Current Market Value, wouldn’t always have to be that
Fair Mkt Value sum which is, you have an item=house, and you want to sell it today, I walk by and offer you $50k and no one else walks by for a whole day. Isn’t that what FMV is?
Now if you want to and have the patience to wait for another offer, which might be lower/higher, whatever it is, that is what the FMV is, at that moment. No? I know what comps are, but if no one walks by and says ‘here is what I am offering’, then it isn’t worth anything until that offer.

Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 15:08:55

Well, that’s part of the reason I made this post. I don’t agree that ANY selling price always represents the current “fair market value.” Words have meanings and while we may not always agree to the meaning of a term, its important to try and resolve a meaning so that we can consistently express ideas.

So, if a father sells a car to his son for $1, does that mean the fair market value of that car model (adjusting for the nuances of that particular car) is $1? There may be times where an item could conceivably sell for something that is “below market value” and it seems most likely that would occur between relations. Whatever the circumstances however, it seems to me that it is at least possible.

While we have seen people in the RE industry make a mistake of calling past value “FMV” I think we have equally seen things swing to far the other way as well at time. That is, that any current selling price is by definition FMV. I addressed an issue relating to this topic and foreclosures, where a foreclosed house sold in an auction in certain circumstances should probably not be considered common or standard and the price would be below the FMV of that item if it were sold normally in the market, representing the increased risk of not being able to inspect the house before bidding. That was in the bits bucket for today.

So, if it is not possible for an item to sell below fair market value (which I believe is your position unless I misunderstand), then “fair market value” has no meaning different from “most recent sales price”. Further, if this is the case, then we should develop a term that describes a typical sale price for items assuming typical circumstances for any given current condition of that market (flat market, “normal” market, bubble market, deflationary market, or whatever else). This term would help us to describe an estimate of the potential value of an object given current market conditions.

Of course, my position is that we already have a term that serves that purpose, and it has simply been misused.

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Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 15:21:44

Well, that’s part of the reason I made this post. I don’t agree that ANY selling price always represents the current “fair market value.” Words have meanings and while we may not always agree to the meaning of a term, its important to try and resolve a meaning so that we can consistently express ideas.

So, if a father sells a car to his son for $1, does that mean the fair market value of that car model (adjusting for the nuances of that particular car) is $1? There may be times where an item could conceivably sell for something that is “below market value” and it seems most likely that would occur between relations. Whatever the circumstances however, it seems to me it is at least possible.

While we have seen people in the RE industry make a mistake of calling past value “FMV” I think we have equally seen things swing to far the other way as well at time. That is, that any current selling price is by definition FMV. I addressed an issue relating to this topic and foreclosures, where a foreclosed house sold in an auction in certain circumstances should probably not be considered common or standard and the price would be below FMV if that item were sold normally in the market, representing the increased risk of not being able to inspect the house before bidding. That was in the bits bucket for today.

So, if it is not possible for an item to sell below fair market value (that is your position unless I misunderstood) then “fair market value” has no meaning different from “most recent sales price”. Further, if this is the case, then we should develop a term that describes a typical sale price for items assuming typical circumstances for any given current condition of that market (flat market, “normal” market, bubble market, deflationary market, or whatever else). This would help us to describe an estimate of the potential value of an object given current market conditions.

Of course, my position is that we already have a term that serves that purpose.

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Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 15:37:57

Fair market value is what a buyer (looking to pay as little as possible) and seller(looking to get as much as possible) agree on.

If a bank buys a house at the forecolsure auction for what is owed, than that is not a real market value transaction. No one was willing to pay that price, or the bank would not have had to take it at auction.

A few weeks later, the bank offloads the house to a real end-user buyer for 20% less than they were owed, THAT is the real market value. A buyer was willing to pay it and a seller thought that was the best they could do.

Same thing if my dad decided to sell me his house for $1. He wouldn’t sell it to ANYONE else for that price. If I take the house from him for $1, then sell it for $300K to an unrelated buyer since I think it is the best I could get, then that is market value!

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Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 15:44:26

sell it for $300K to an unrelated buyer since I think it is the best I could get

And if we further assume that buyer turns around and sells it for 400k because you were uninformed, then the “I think it’s the best I can get” metric doesn’t hold up for determining FMV.

 
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 15:40:54

I have a larger reply which doesn’t seem to be showing up…

In any case, consider this, if you want to sell a house, how do you know what to sell it for? It has been pointed out (correctly) on this blog numerous times that you can’t just (if you are interested in being reasonable) list it for whatever you want. You can’t just list it for necessarily what it sold for last year or what you paid for it. You have to have some reasonable way to determine what to sell it for.

Also, when selling anything, markets are an aggregate of many factors. You have to consider common market traditions and if you want to deviate from those traditions, you should adjust your price accordingly (to hold the other factors the same). If you want to sell faster, adjust down, if you want the house to sit on the market longer, adjust up. If you want to take all the copper with you, adjust down, if you want to leave behind a pile of gold adjust up.

So what is that “base” at which things sell under normal conditions? If we don’t have a term for it, we should get one.

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Comment by lavi d
2008-01-09 14:11:27

“In any case, this has resulted in significant numbers of homes selling well below market value and appraised value, creating an artificially low median price”

And just two years ago:

“In any case, this has resulted in significant numbers of homes selling way above market value and appraised value, creating an artificially high median price”

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 15:07:46

No no…
Two years ago:
“Strong demand spurred by strong economy and low interest rates is causing a rapid increase in market price. Continued strength and market price increases are in the bag, so buy now or be priced out forever. Why throw money away on rent when you can own for less (using a negative amoritization, teaser rate ARM that will ballon in your face, but don’t worry, you’ll easily be able to refinance or sell for huge profit before then). Bad credit? No assets? No downpayment? No job? No problem. We can get you approved for a loan for virtually any amount.”

 
 
 
Comment by smf
2008-01-09 13:39:02

“Carla Weise, economic development director of the Downtown Alliance, said the Salt Lake area is now attracting a hip, younger crowd who prefer the spoils of city life.”

Sorry to say this, but no one has the right to call SLC ‘hip’ at all. No youngsters that are not Mormons would willingly move into that city.

2008-01-09 15:40:58

No youngsters that are not Mormons would willingly move into that city.

You clearly don’t ski.

Comment by sunshine
2008-01-09 16:01:03

or hike. or camp. or boat. or have an interest in medicine.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-09 16:15:55

I consider Utah to be one of the most beautiful states, overall.

It’s like a technicolor drive-by roadtrip…

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Comment by Honey Maid
2008-01-09 19:19:09

Agreed — SLC/Utah is outdoorsman’s paradise. Keep it a secret. The idiot hipsters can stay in PNW. God I don’t miss that place

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by EmperorNorton_II
2008-01-09 13:40:08

Only Jay Butler…

Could take a severe financial downturn, and dumb it down, to liken the effects, to one night’s overindulgence.

“‘Obviously the credit crunch or financing is an issue, on top of which is the general economy,’ said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.”

“The current slow market is because of tight financing and the response to the hypermarket that began in 2003. The market was overbuilt, Butler said.”

“‘We’re paying the price for having a good time,’ he said. ‘It’s like having a good time on New Year’s Eve so you pay the price on New Year’s Day.’”

Comment by az_lender
2008-01-09 14:01:42

The whole collection of Ben’s posts on AZ/NV/UT/CO today glaringly omit one small fact: renting is much cheaper than “buying,” still. The change in credit conditions is a major factor, but focusing on that alone suggests that anybody who CAN get a mortgage loan should go ahead and take one out. Every RE purchase in today’s environment is like buying a stock with a negative dividend.

Comment by Desertdweller
2008-01-09 14:48:34

Ran the ‘renting’ #s last night, and it still is approx 26-30% cheaper to rent.
Husb said, not to worry, he isn’t saying he won’t buy eventually, but wanted me to know the costs.
Well, if I can get a landlord of the home I would live in for 10 yrs to rent for 10 yrs, then I might think considr, but until then, rent for now, but not for eternity. Just saying, I want to paint something another color than white. And take down a wall.Or something.

 
Comment by climber
2008-01-09 14:50:09

Once you add kids and pets to the equation renting gets a lot less desirable. One apartment charged $50/ month for EACH pet. We were paying $900 / month for a 800 square foot 2 bedroom apartment. We now have a 4 bedroom house on 1/2 acre with 2 car garage for $1278/ month (PITI).

In CO, the rent vs buy decision just isn’t so simple. I just did a query for my area, I want a 3 bedroom 2 bath house with a 2 car garage that takes pets and is within 5 miles of the kids’ school. There just is not much available. I’d settle for a townhouse or duplex, but it must have a fenced yard (kids & pets remember). It’s slim pickings.

When I was single/childless/petless life was pretty simple and I rented. Now life has gotten a lot more challenging. My wife also has a habit of acquiring furniture that takes 4 strong men to move.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 14:59:53

Homeownership with pets isn’t exactly easy. Case in point: I was looking around for a different home insurer. The one I interviewed (American Family) said that the would not insure homes where there the following dog breeds were present: Akita, Chow, Pit Bull, Rottweiler. They also wouldn’t insure homes where wolf hybrids were present.

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Comment by Aqius
2008-01-09 15:56:02

hey AZSLIM

any prohibition against dobermans on yer insurance carrier? just curious what the overall climate is these days on that breed re home insurance as I am looking at my current coverage.

 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-01-09 16:07:35

Hmmm….. Nationwide tried that nonsense about breeds on me once. 30 minutes later their in-house counsle was calling me apologizing profusely and offerring a discounted rate.

The dog took which their underwriter had taken exception was a part Chow-chow.

She was also my Service Dog and protected under the American’s With Disabilities Act.

Refusing to insure because of my Service Dog was a HUGE no-no.

I said ‘you can’t do that. You just violated Federal Law and had better get out of that chair and upstairs to legal. You have 1 hour or I contact US Justice.’

They made it with 30 minutes to spare - and I paid 1/3rd the going rate for coverage for 3 years.

Wanna borrow my now-retired helper?

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 16:13:29

American Family didn’t say anything about Dobies. And I don’t know about my current carrier (State Farm) because it isn’t an issue here at the Arizona Slim Ranch. (Slim has no pets.)

However, I was looking to switching to GEICO two or three years ago. After we got the initial name, rank, and serial number questions out of the way, the lady on the other end of the phone asked if I had a dog.

So, in a nutshell, the insurance industry is looking at man’s best friend with a different eye than many of us. This website offers many of the reasons why:

http://dogbitelaw.com/

 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-01-09 16:14:43

Aquis- check with the AKC. They keep track of who and who will not insure different breeds. Some will cover the ‘difficult’ breeds IF you have shown them and gotten AKC performance degrees - preferably obedience in Novice and better Open. (And I mean the REAL obedience degrees - not the Rally nonsense.)

BTW people, want to rent with dogs? Go get those AKC performance degrees. Prospective landlords are extremely impressed when you say ‘AKC show dog’ and give a hand signal which makes Rover slam into a sit or down and stay immobileand silent.

We have 3 - the retired Service Dog, my current Service Dog and the uncle of my younger Service Dog. He came to live with us after his co-owner was killed in a car crash. The first 2 are protected under the American’s with Disabilties Act (no one can refuse them). The third stands there being 30 inches at the shoulder and weighing 125 lbs as I introduce him as AKC Champion xyzz, the son, full brother and 3/4 brother of 3 different top placing Westminster show dogs. Works a treat.

 
Comment by Jimmy Jazz
2008-01-09 16:23:36

I work in the industy, Slim. You’re going to have trouble with those breeds with just about any carrier. There’s pretty much an industry-wide blackball on owners of those dogs. Also, if you don’t disclose it on the application and they bite someone, they can rescind your policy for misrep and deny your claim.

 
Comment by Lip
2008-01-09 16:28:43

Slim & Aqius,

Call your agent and then call a few others. Many insurers will not cover certain breeds, but some insurers will.

 
Comment by Aqius
2008-01-09 22:36:32

thanks, everyone, for the info

 
 
Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-09 15:42:37

I guess when it comes to rent versus own in my area of the Bay Area, CA, the choice is easy: Either keep renting our 4 bedroom home with a yard, that allows pets, with a garage for $1,600 a month, or buy the equivalent house for 650k and have a $5,000 a month mortgage.There’s no contest there.

On the other hand, I think people get a tad irrational sometimes when it comes to the reasons why they want to buy… aka- painting the walls, kids, etc etc. Consider the amount of time it would take to repaint the walls white when you move versus having to work more hours to pay for the walls you paint in a home you buy. I think most would find that given the still flop-sided situation with rent versus own, these issues are still minuscule and can easily be measures in terms of money, time, and financial stress.

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Comment by DenverLowBaller
2008-01-09 13:44:12

Admiral LowBall reporting for duty!

“Ed Jalowsky, who recently launched Hottest Homes Realty, said the market is the best buying opportunity he has ever seen. ‘If you’re a buyer, you’re not in the captain’s seat, you’re in the admiral’s seat,’ Jalowsky said.”

Comment by Brandon
2008-01-09 13:53:58

….not compared with the Louisiana Purchase. Or how about the homestead act? That was free land!

 
Comment by mikey
2008-01-09 14:24:47

NOW HEAR THIS..This is the Captain.

Admiral Spendthrift and Staff have just left the ship.

Oh..and by the way, we have been torpedoed by debt and it’s every man for himself..

and stay to Hell OUT of My Lifeboat :)

 
Comment by OCDan
2008-01-09 14:39:20

Yeah, well Ed is the LAST of the bigtime spenders, ya know!

 
Comment by oxide
2008-01-09 15:05:51

Admiral of what…the Titanic?

Comment by Aqius
2008-01-09 16:01:32

Khan, lower the price, already, you half- breed mutant …..

Khan !?

KHAAAAAAAAAAAN !!!!!

Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-01-10 10:57:50

Revenge is a dish best served with a toxic loan!

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Comment by vardaman
2008-01-09 13:54:04

off topic, but instructional

They came in droves — high school students, retirees, young moms, the “unemployed — all for a shot at a job at a new Wal-Mart on Memorial Drive in central DeKalb County.

In just two days, and with virtually no advertising or even any signs, a staggering 7,500 people filled out applications for one of the 350 to 400 available jobs.”

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/metro/dekalb/stories/2008/01/08/walmart_0109.html

Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-01-09 14:19:28

Come on. People only want employment at Wal Mart because they will be “entitled” to some form of compensation during the quarterly class-action lawsuits.

 
 
Comment by bluprint
2008-01-09 13:55:28

‘If you’re a buyer, you’re not in the captain’s seat, you’re in the admiral’s ejection seat?

Comment by DenverLowBaller
2008-01-09 13:59:04

That was rich, I just split a gut muscle.

 
Comment by MrBubble
2008-01-09 15:27:01

Roger Moore as Seymour Hirsch at the end of Cannonball Run!

 
 
Comment by New in NM
2008-01-09 13:57:37

Just before the holidays a relative in Salt Lake went to an auction at the courthouse since a house he has had his eye on for over a decade went into foreclosure. (It was built by a relative around 1900 with all the woodwork hand-done.) An out of state infestor had bought it for $400K, heloc’d another $400K out of it from three banks, all heloc’s on the same day. Unfortunately one of the banks cancelled the auction and I doubt they will even take an offer until they sort out which bank gets burnt the worst.

But there were plenty of other properties that did go to auction. Apparently the people who were buying were a pretty grungy bunch - my relative thought they were homeless people trying to stay warm when he first saw them.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 14:07:59

When my former landlady bought a foreclosed property at a Pima County Courthouse auction back in 1998, I went along. I’d never been to a property auction, and I figured that I might learn a thing or two.

Since I’d never been to such an event, I figured that getting dressed up wouldn’t be a bad idea. OTOH, my landlady and her boyfriend didn’t share my sentiment. They were clad in their usual dressed-way-down attire.

Once the auction got underway, and the landlady and boyfriend got into the action, the auctioneer kept looking at me, thinking I was the buyer. I made it clear that I wasn’t, lest my nice attire get me into deep financial tapioca.

Comment by climber
2008-01-09 14:25:50

When my wife and I negotiate real estate we don’t let on we can afford way more than we’re willing to spend.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2008-01-09 15:08:55

Perhaps another market indicator? When the metrosexual clad crew is gone from the courthouse steps (a la Casey) and only older folk who look like they should be replacing a transmission are present.

I know 4 guys that fit this description and I tend to eavesdrop on what they’re doing rather than the young guys in the wool coat and scarf.

 
Comment by RoundSparrow
2008-01-09 22:10:30

At least in the 1980’s…. sheep wore suit and ties. It was trend-setting to look like you were a university attendee and getting paid $75K. some of us haven’t changed ;)

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:00:20

Ben,
I’m “Surprise”d you missed this gem.

http://www.azcentral.com/community/surprise/articles/0108gl-nwvcattle0109.html

“Some new guests have “moo-ved” into Surprise’s emerging urban center - and they need a cowboy to keep them in line.

About 20 head of cattle have been placed on the northeast corner of Bullard Avenue and Greenway Road on about 75 acres of land that is supposed to become part of a downtown commerce hub with millions of square feet of medical research, retail and employment.

The sudden appearance of cows is designed partly to serve as a wake-up call to the city, which has been discussing the site’s commercial project since 1995.”

“Phillips said another reason for locating the herd there was to serve as a deterrent for public dumping and off-road driving. It will also control brush on the property and will enable the ownership group to receive a tax break for using the land for agricultural purposes.

The group owns about 650 acres bounded to the north and south by Bell and Greenway roads, and to the east and west by Litchfield Road and Bullard Avenue.”

For those that don’t know, Surprise AZ is a ‘burb on the extreme NW of PHX metro.. It is like 40-50 miles from the real downtown PHX which is a suck commute. It is a exhurb in search of a commerical core, cultural core, jobs…… heck, anything other than a bunch of houses in the middle of no where, many of those in foreclsoure and many more in various stages of construction.. Oh, did I mention the suck traffic? My wife’s Ex lives about 13 miles from us (were in Glendale, he’s in Surprise) but it takes him a good 35-45 min to get to our house at rush hour.

Now, their commerical and corproate and cultural core is returning to cow pasture….. nice.

Comment by azjack
2008-01-09 23:16:12

“For those that don’t know, Surprise AZ is a ‘burb on the extreme NW of PHX metro.. It is like 40-50 miles from the real downtown PHX which is a suck commute. It is a exhurb in search of a commerical core, cultural core, jobs…… heck, anything other than a bunch of houses in the middle of no where, many of those in foreclsoure and many more in various stages of construction.. ”

Not to put a damper on a good rant, but this is a bit exaggerated. It is 23 miles from this new suburban cow pasture to the corner of Central and Washington. It was kind of an odd move to put the animals there, heck, that building in the photo’s background is the aquatic center. . . you can pick up the downtown express bus there.

There are two art museums in Surprise, including a Heard branch. Nice spring training facility, library, urban lake, tennis facility, etc. Tons of shopping, the Northwest Superior Court complex, White Tank Regional park nearby. Bell Road and other traffic often sucks, but that whole Glendale 85306 area has similar issues.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-09 14:00:51

“…if you look at the tremendous numbers of foreclosures, the tightening credit and what is happening in other markets with really big problems, I’m very happy.’”

What would it take to make him ecstatic, nuclear war?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 14:16:36

Try Armageddon.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2008-01-09 14:07:30

“This market is not unlike the late ’80s in Denver. It’s a trippy time. There are some amazing deals out there.’”

Those buying now must be “trippin”

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:29:49

The market is like… so totally tubular, ya’ know…

Like, fer sure, ya know… but the Housing Bubble Bloggers that keep, like, tearing us down, ya’ know… they are like totally gnarly.

Like, totatlly granley, fer sure.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 14:34:33

Like, totally!

 
 
 
Comment by Mr_Dave_O
2008-01-09 14:20:34

“‘While many continue to paint a ‘doom and gloom’ picture of the Las Vegas real estate market, fundamentals within the industry remain healthy,’ Bentley said.”

And what would those fundamentals be? A good ratio of incomes to house prices?

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-09 14:39:18

Fundamentals? Prices remain unaffordable using traditional (now retured to the maket) lending standards. Inventory way up and demand way down. Buying much more expensive than renting. Construction continues to push forward as builders are forced to move land by pushing inventory into a saturated market. Foreclosures through the roof.

Did I miss any?

 
 
Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-09 14:21:20

“The Utah housing market is one of the strongest in the nation, and that trend is especially evident in Salt Lake City’s thriving condominium market.”

Pah! that’s just the death throes of a bubble, right?

 
Comment by climber
2008-01-09 14:22:44

“The average price of a previously owned single-family home in the Denver area fell 2 percent last year, apparently the first time the area has seen a year- over-year decline. The median price also suffered the first year-over-year decline.”

Do these guys forget the oil bust in the 80’s? According to OFHEO data there was continual depreciation from Q1′87 to Q1′98. That looks like two years of downward pricing to me, and it’s not inflation adjusted, so real prices took a big hit.

Comment by simplesimon
2008-01-09 14:47:50

climber,

all the “experts” don’t quote anything past the year 2000…i think reality as opposed to fantasy land scares them.

Comment by simplesimon
2008-01-09 15:09:49

prior to 2000…

 
 
 
Comment by Flatlander
2008-01-09 14:52:30

“‘Price is the driving force right now,’ said Twyla Tiffany of Danford Realty in Fort Morgan.”

I know this Mrs. Tiffany. She knows about foreclosures first hand.

Comment by In Colorado
2008-01-09 16:31:43

For a while, prices for Morgan County homes were increasing dramatically

This is insane! Ft Morgan is a podunky cow town in the middle of nowhere. There can’t be more than 15,000 people there. How could prices rise there rapidly while they remained nearly stagnant in much, much more prosperous Loveland and Ft. Collins?

 
 
Comment by MacAttack
2008-01-09 14:57:37

“The Utah housing market is one of the strongest in the nation, and that trend is especially evident in Salt Lake City’s thriving condominium market. In the past year, the average sales-price increase in the 11 zip-code areas for Salt Lake City ranged from a modest 4 percent in the east-side Emigration Canyon area to a whopping 103 percent in the Foothill/Parleys area.”

This IS a current article, yes? Are you sure? Are you sure this isn’t a couple years old? It better be!!!

Comment by Remain calm. All's well
2008-01-09 16:26:45

The Utah housing market is one of the strongest in the nation.

Tell that to Jeff @ SDCIA.

 
Comment by JRinUT
2008-01-09 16:46:35

YOY, maybe. MOM it has to be down

 
 
Comment by AZCharlie
2008-01-09 15:17:38

Check out this financial maneuver from a so called “money expert” financial advice columnist with the NYT….She and family barely above water, husband a stay at home dad, but they just had to buy this huse a couple of weeks ago and since its a bad time to sell right now…put their old place up for rent…”When Money Rules Don’t Apply”
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/WhenTheMoneyRulesDontApply.aspx

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 15:35:54

Quick, where’s that 20 lb. trout? Or a Joshua Tree?

Comment by spike66
2008-01-09 16:15:00

I love this, from the “expert”…
-the new house is an “investment”
-realtor told her there was a competing bid, so she matched it
-unemployed husband gets part-time job for 400-500 a month to swing it.
-they are 6,500 in debt
-they have no emergency savings
-they’ll rent the old house until the market improves
-now they won’t have to go to Lowe’s to fix up the old house..
(apparently, no one informed her that landlords make and pay for all repairs)
-that a tenant could lose a job in a recession, fail to pay the rent or trash the place never entered her head.
And she gets paid by the NYTimes to be a financial expert…man, she could have been a realtor if she’d been any smarter.

 
 
Comment by climber
2008-01-09 16:00:19

But notice the dollar amounts in the deals and the fact that #1 the renter actually provides neutral cash flow and #2 they put a down payment on the second house with money from savings not an HELOC on the first house #3 they can actually afford the deal without the part time job that hubby now has, so now they have even more money to put into savings.

$225k for the second house may not be a bad deal.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 15:37:57

Anyone read this book yet?

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN3154166620080104

It got a good review in last week’s WSJ.

Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-09 16:02:27

Sounds like the author is actually just another FB. Turn it into a book - that’s the ticket!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-09 16:16:14

He is indeed an FB.

According to the aforementioned WSJ story, the Idaho rental house has turned out to be a marital punchline. When the author expresses horror over how much the wife just spent at the mall, she replies, “Well, it’s less than what you spent on that house in Idaho.”

 
 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2008-01-09 15:53:02

For those in the market to buy or sell, Yahoo to the rescue.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104115/8-Moves-for-Home-Buyers,-Sellers-in-08

 
Comment by Neil
2008-01-09 15:55:16

The Las Vegas Business Press. “There were 5,143 luxury condo units completed in the third quarter, including the $195 million, 428-unit Allure Las Vegas.”

“Meanwhile, there were roughly 14,388 units actively selling in the third quarter, with 12.3 percent being located along the Strip. Another 14,163 units are proposed for future development.”

“There have been 89 luxury condos sold year-to-date with a median price of $860,000, or $502 per square foot, Restrepo Consulting Group reports.”

Wait a frigin’ second. 14,388 plus 5143 minus 89 is 19,442.

19,442 divided by 89 is a 218. Since this is a 3rd quarter report, I’ll take that as 163 years of inventory!

Did they honestly try to spin horrid numbers like that as a positive?!?

I’m floored…
What am I missing?
Apparently it is a great time to buy! ;)
Inventory at multiples of a human life span… that’s incredible (if true).

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-01-09 16:36:32

Comment by Rionn Fears Malechem
2008-01-09 15:40:58
No youngsters that are not Mormons would willingly move into that city. (SLC)

‘You clearly don’t ski’.

I grew up in Utarrrrr, and I ski, and I would much rather ski somewhere else. I did ski, over the Christmas vacation. I stopped in Oregon on the way to my family in Utarrrrr. Much superior, in my view. Plus, you can drink a beer, or even *gasp* a coffee or a Coke in the lodge without being marked out as Outer-darkness-bound. Besides, Utarrrr beer is required to be only 3 % alcohol or something like that. Heckfire! My pee’s got more alcohol than THAT in it. May as well drink water. Or my pee.

 
Comment by Backstage
2008-01-09 17:58:07

Gary Bauer: “…if you look at the tremendous numbers of foreclosures, the tightening credit and what is happening in other markets with really big problems, I’m very happy.”

I’m happy about these things, too. But I suspect that Gary and I differ on the reasons for our pleasure. I think that he will become disappointed and I will remain happy about future events.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-01-09 18:21:24

I just heard of a AZ seller agreeing to sell their house but they have to hold it until May while the buyer saves up the down payment.
The seller has already bought a new house in Texas.

 
Comment by tk71
2008-01-09 19:24:50

poking around in a suburb of NYC - rockland county and prices are flying through the roof agan according to zilow (not that I take this as a viable source anymore) feel like the twilight zone as houses aren’t selling and these estimates continue to appreciate.

With:
Stock prices depreciating
Incomes sub par to homr prices
subslime shot
realtors, loan orginators, done
countryslide going under
unemployment on the rise
loans more difficult to get
sentiment on the down low

any updates on your neighborhoods?

 
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