January 10, 2008

Affordability Is An Issue In Canada

Bloomberg reports on Canada. “Canadian building permits fell almost five times as fast as economists forecast in November, as the value of licenses for new offices and multifamily dwellings tumbled. ‘Economists have been calling for a slowdown for years, but this may be the start of the real thing,’ said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.”

From Reuters. “Canadian building permits fell dramatically and housing prices held steady in November, signaling a slowdown in the housing market but economists warned against dire predictions of a U.S.-style meltdown.”

“‘The mistake would be to bind today’s report on permits to yesterday’s soft housing starts number and try to spin it into the makings of a US styled real estate story,’ said Stewart Hall, markets strategist at HSBC Canada. ‘This is moderation from very high levels to still high levels.’”

“‘This dramatic fall in permits offers some credence to the view that the Canadian housing market may have hit a soft spot in the fourth-quarter of 2007, and validates the significant fall reported in housing starts yesterday,’ said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities.”

“‘We would, however, simultaneously emphasize that the Canadian housing market remains in reasonable shape, with an expectation for some moderate adjustments during 2008,’ Mulraine said.”

The Financial Post. “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says there is little fear the Canadian housing market could soon resemble the one in the United States. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis there were 187,500 housing starts in December, a 19.6% drop from a month earlier.”

“Despite the decline, there were an estimated 229,600 new homes constructed last year, the second highest level of construction in the past two decades.”

“‘No, the sky is not falling, it really was a weather-related decline,’ said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC, noting December was an extremely cold month in Toronto, in particular, and that slowed condominium construction.”

“He said there are plenty of pre-sales for condominiums, which would indicate a lot of activity to come. CMHC is sticking with a forecast of 214,000 for new-home construction in 2008, the seventh straight year starts would top 200,000. One would have to go back 30 years to find a comparable run for the construction industry.”

“But all is not perfect. Interest rates haven’t been this high since August, 2001. ‘They are high for recent months but not if you look at them long term,’ said Mr. Dugan, who said one of his concerns for the housing market was the possibility of credit drying up.”

From The Star. “A stormy December put the big chill on home building as Canadian housing starts sank to the lowest level in almost six years.”

“‘The sharp drop in housing starts shouldn’t be seen as a prelude to a U.S.-style meltdown,’ said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Robert Hogue. ‘Nonetheless, the sector’s strong momentum of the last several years is expected to slow moderately, as rising economic uncertainty throws some sand in the housing engine.’”

“‘The strong price gains recorded in 2007 began to stress affordability, suggesting that Canada’s housing market will cool,’ said senior bank economist Dawn Desjardins. ‘Still, against a backdrop of a strong labour market, rising wages and low interest rates, the slowing is likely to be modest.’”

“Of all cities, Toronto registered the biggest hit, with starts down 51 per cent from November.”

The Halifax News. “House prices in Atlantic Canada keep edging up, putting ownership out of reach for more residents. According to Valerie Folk, area manager for Royal LePage Atlantic in Halifax, a lack of desirable properties in Bedford, Sackville and Dartmouth left little room for price negotiation.”

“Buyers who tried to go in below asking price were largely denied entry into the market, she said. Two-storey homes in the west end soared by 32.5 per cent to $265,000.”

From The Record. “Homes were bought and sold at a record pace in Waterloo Region last year, defying all predictions of a slowdown in the housing market. Across the region, 9,799 homes were sold in 2007, topping the red-hot 2005 market, when 9,146 homes were sold in the Kitchener, Waterloo and Cambridge areas.”

“Ever since the last record was hit in 2005, there have been predictions that the pace of home buying is bound to slow down, especially since the U.S. housing market has been in a slump. But that hasn’t happened in this area.”

“‘It was our best year yet,’ said Tania Benninger, president of the Kitchener-Waterloo Real Estate Board. ‘Last year, when we were coming off of a really good year, people said it was bound to slow down. This year, again, I’m hearing that it’s bound to slow down. But, I think, even if it slows down a wee bit, it will still be a hot market.’”

“While the price of housing has been steadily rising across the region, Benninger says homes are still affordable compared to other major markets in Ontario.”

“Last year, in Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge, 36 homes sold for more than $750,000, with eight of those selling for more than $1 million. In 2006, there were 23 homes sold for more than $750,000, with eight of those selling for more than $1 million.”

“‘We are bringing new blood and creating wealth in our own community,’ Benninger said.”

The Chronicle Herald. “Canada’s residential real-estate market posted solid gains in the final three months of 2007, avoiding much of its usual midwinter slowdown, but price increases are likely to slacken this year, Royal LePage Real Estate Services reports.”

“The October-December period ‘had really unusual, high levels of activity, and that in turn drove higher price appreciation than we expected,’ Royal LePage president Phil Soper said.”

“The country’s biggest real estate agency franchiser said bungalow prices rose 43 per cent in Saint John, N.B., and 21 per cent in Winnipeg, and double-digit percentage gains were also recorded in Edmonton, Vancouver and Victoria.”

“The Prairies continued to dominate in price appreciation late in 2007, and home prices in Saskatchewan rose much faster than anywhere else in the country. Bungalow prices were up 55 per cent to $292,500 in Saskatoon and 52 per cent to $229,200 in Regina.”

“In Alberta, where Edmonton’s prices were rising at a 50 per cent annualized clip early in 2007, the breakneck rise in recent years ‘has moderated demand,’ the Royal LePage report said.”

“Edmonton and Calgary now have ‘a surplus of inventory,’ it added, and ‘while demand is strong, the increased supply has impacted the resale market and homes that are not priced appropriately will take longer to sell.’”

“Soper said the Alberta economy needs time to adjust to the ‘frankly unhealthy increase’ in home prices between late 2005 and early 2007.”

“A typical Vancouver bungalow was priced at $795,250, up 12 per cent from a year earlier, a standard condominium appreciated 11 per cent to $428,250, and a two-storey house in Vancouver also rose 11 per cent to an average of $895,000.”

“Vancouver’s rise is slowing in percentage terms, but ‘at this rate it will be in the next 24 months the first region in Canada to have a housing class with an average price over $1 million,’ Soper commented. ‘Wages and salaries there aren’t that much superior to other parts of the country, so affordability is an issue.’”

The Leader Post. “The ground is frozen but that hasn’t halted the record-breaking pace of new home construction in the City of Regina. Despite a bit of a lull in December, new housing starts in 2007 were at a 21-year high, according to the monthly survey released Wednesday by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.”

“‘That is amazing,’ said Alice Russell, executive director of the Regina and Region Home Builders Association. ‘I don’t remember having a December like we did in 2006. It was out of the norm.’”

“‘If we did not see another house this year, we would all still be busy,’ said Heather McGinnis, project consultant at Munro Homes in Regina. The phones are still ringing off the hook and builders are moving as quickly as possible to get the homes built, McGinnis said.”

“The housing market in Regina set all kinds of records in 2007, and the fourth quarter of the year was no exception.”

“The average price of residential properties in Saskatchewan rose more than anywhere else in the country for the fourth quarter. From December 2006 to December 2007, some properties increased in price more than 50 per cent, according to the Royal LePage house price survey.”

“The biggest jump in Regina was in detached bungalows, which increased by 52.4 per cent from 2006 to an average of $229,200. Standard condominiums also had strong increases at 49.2 per cent, making the average price $144,000.”

“The good news for buyers is that not all homes are jumping at such a drastic rate. The bad news, however, is that the most-sought-after homes are making the biggest jumps. This also means that the market will be able to withstand increases of this kind for some time, according to broker Mike Duggleby.”

“The increases meant change for the buyers, sellers and realtors. Some of the changes included the Association of Regina Realtors creating forms to deal with bidding wars and realtors agreeing to not take offers until a certain day, allowing buyers time to see the homes, explained Duggleby.”

“He also said vendors had to be ready to sell their homes very quickly after putting them on the market and buyers had to be active in their search and prepared to make offers immediately.”

“Although the increase of 50 per cent in a year is shocking, Regina is still relatively affordable compared to the national averages, says Royal LePage.”

“Regina also fell slightly below Saskatoon’s numbers. There, condos increased the most at 65.3 per cent from December 2006 to $205,000 in December 2007. Detached two-storey homes increased by 56.7 per cent to $321,250 and detached bungalows hit $292,500, up 55.2 per cent.”

“Duggleby expects the Regina market to follow in Saskatoon’s footsteps just as Edmonton followed in the footsteps of Calgary’s housing boom.”

“The main story in 2007 was demand and Duggleby says that we can expect much of the same for 2008. His only advice for people wanting to buy is, ‘Do it as soon as you can.’”




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86 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2008-01-10 13:48:00

Some letters to the editor from Toronto:

‘We asked if 40-year mortgages are a good idea.’

‘No - this just gives people the illusion they can afford a home but really they are creating an enourmous debt for themselves with all the interest this will amount to. As a 24 year old recent first time home buyer, I was annoyed by all the banks offering me these terms because it felt as though they were preying on young people & first time home buyers to get suckered into paying more in interest than the actual purchase price.
RT, Thornhill’

‘Get ready for another housing bubble ! it’s not a good idea to owe money to the bank for that long. The sooner you pay it off, the better. Less to worry about and have a good night sleep.
HP, Mississauga’

‘I think it is a good idea. People should look at mortgages as an investment. The idea here is not about paying off your mortgage faster or slower, the strategy is to get into the market, so when the property value goes up, you sell and benefit on the capital gain, which is tax free. Then buy another property, keeping the same mortgage, until you accumulate enough equity, then you downsize. The whole concept of paying off your mortgage and sitting on your equity needs to change.
JW, Toronto’

‘Let’s see now, if I buy a house when I’m in my mid-20s, I will have it paid off just in time to retire. On the other hand, if I’m like most people and don’t buy until I’m in my 30s, then I’ll be paying off the mortgage with my CPP. A 40-year mortgage shows that our governments have failed to make housing affordable for large numbers of people. It also forces us to question what the difference is between a mortgage and a lease if at the end of 20 years you don’t any appreciable amount of your home either way.
GD, Toronto’

‘40-year mortgages? If you are 18-20 and have $200,000, perhaps. Otherwise forget it. A person would have to be stupid/ignorant/brain-dead to pay for a mortgage over 40 years.
DB, Georgetown’

‘Does anyone else see this as housing market manipulation by real estate agents, banks, and investors? They’re all selling the dream to wannabe home owners who aren’t financially savvy enough to realize they’re better off renting.
VT, East York’

‘The 40 year mortgage in Canada isn’t that new. 40 year mortgages have been available for months now. The 40 year mortgage products are not the same products that sent the U.S. into a downward spiral. Credit standards for approval of these products are much better in Canada than our neighbours to the south. A 40 year mortgage makes it easier for someone with good credit but a lower income to purchase their own home which is a good thing.
RL, Toronto’

‘This is a very, very, bad, bad, idea. It allows people to spend beyond their means. In the long run you will pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more in interest. You’re buying a $200,000 house for over $700,000. Everyone should be forced to take a course in financial mathematics before signing on for a 40-year mortgage. Then no one in their right mind would want one.
EA, Whitby’

‘20 year mortages already amortize out to nearly 50% greater than amount borrowed by the time the mortage has matured. By this definition,at 40 years, a 250K mortage will cost the buyer $500K which will be greater than the martket price of the house. You would need to make 100% profit on your sale price to recover the cost of the loan and to break even. Not to mention the admin costs. Do the math. Rent until you can afford to buy properly.
EH, Thornhill ‘

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-10 14:25:24

Why is it that Canadians can pick up on this stuff, but many Americans seem to be utterly clueless?

Comment by Chad
2008-01-10 14:38:11

Well, I like the last guy. He’s on the right track, but I chortled when I read “do the math”. Well, I did, and @ 8%, the loan repayment over 40 years turns out to be $834,374.03. Bone chilling.

7% is $745,717.54
6% is $660,256.37

Should I even go up on those rates??? :o

Comment by potential buyer
2008-01-10 15:00:25

If there’s no penalty for an early payoff, then I’m not sure I see what’s wrong with it. It would allow young buyers a fixed payment until their salary increases, then they can start paying it off over 20 years or so.

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Comment by scdave
2008-01-10 15:31:01

I agree with you p. buyer with one Caveat…..You would also want the loan to reset on the monthly payment if you pay down the loan…That then gives you both the flexibility of a lower “required” payment but the ability to continue to pay the higher payment thereby reducing the principal as if it was a shorter amortization. Some loans only allow the amortization period to shorten with the payment remaining the same…

 
Comment by AnnScott
2008-01-10 15:32:01

until their salary increases

And therein is the problem. Incomes are NOT going up relative to inflation. Nor is a colllege degree the ticket to having an income that will increase over the years. During the past 6 years, the incomes of college grads have actually fallen.

Can’t be that much different in Canada (global workforce and all that.)

If the purchase is not based upon current income, then it is makeing a bet that:

(1) income will go up
(2) the job will not be outsourced to India
(3) that illness or injury will not happen which curtails incomes (but at least the Canadians aren’t banrupted by medical bills)
(4) that house prices will also and forever go up

Gambling is an addiction - and very bad financial management.

 
Comment by az_lender
2008-01-10 16:01:15

“Some loans” = standard contract. If people have the kind of loan that doesn’t allow the required payment to be reduced, they should seek an investment return greater to or equal to their mortgage rate, and use the investment returns to pay the mortgage. My borrowers are more fortunate, as I am an individual availbable for renegotiation and will always accept the idea of lowering the required payment when a big chunk of principal is paid off.

 
Comment by Chad
2008-01-10 16:08:35

Are you serious? A simple amortization schedule shows that in 29 years, you would be at the point where more than 50% of the payment is going toward principle, just as us “crazy 30 year mortgage people” are about to pay ours off. Why on earth would anyone sign on to pay more than double the price of the home in INTEREST ALONE??? And if housing price increases were in line with HISTORICAL price increases (2%ish), then a $250,000 house now would only be worth $556,014 in 40 years! Oh, and that doesn’t even take in to account all of the constant jawboning we’ve been doing here about the fact that prices need to revert to the mean, so buckle up for home price DEPRECIATION for years to come. Gee, it sounds so much better than paying rent!

 
Comment by ugh
2008-01-10 17:01:09

Don’t forgot for a minute.

Our J6P’s are just as stupid as US J6P’s.

Ours, to be fair though, have frozen brain cells.

 
 
 
Comment by ugh
2008-01-10 16:58:01

Slim, most don’t. The bubble prices are proof.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2008-01-10 14:46:42

At least there are some sensible comments in with the foolish ones.

My Canadian friends really do believe it is different there. They laugh at the folly, stupidity and “excess” of the Americans. In addition to the 40 yr term, they have the no-down product and the ARM, but it’s different there. Reality just takes a little longer to settle in.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:16:40

Thats why I want to own a house outright that im buying in cash. A mortgage is only smart if you can invest in capital gains higher than the interest rate, for example borrow at 7% but get 10% capital gains. But it’s a moot point in most locations since houses are such a ripoff that renting is a far better deal and the capital gains will pay the rent several times over.

I am leaving Florida and all the money im saving on a house will go into investment in foreign funds where ill get an average of 10% capital gains. I did the math months ago that spending $50k instead of $100k on a house will mean an extra *million* in around 25 years from now at 10% capital gains and saving $50k on a house which means more money to invest. Its amazing how much saving even a few thousand a year can add up once you retire ;)

 
Comment by space acer
2008-01-10 23:33:57

The secret’s out on phantom bids TheStar.com - GTA - The secret’s out on phantom bids
Registry, open bidding needed to stamp out phony offer scams, some realtors say
September 15, 2007
Tony Wong
Gail Swainson
Staff Reporters

The incoming head of the Toronto Real Estate Board has come out swinging against phantom bidding tactics after denying they even existed when she ran for the job three months ago.

“It’s dirty realty, it really is,” Maureen O’Neill said of agents who fabricate offers during bidding wars. She is now calling on the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) to yank the licences of agents convicted of using phony bids.

“Boot them out, we don’t need them in the business,” O’Neill said. “I don’t think these people should be allowed to sell real estate.”

Phantom bids can be used by selling agents to spark extra rounds of bidding or to spook potential buyers into rushing or raising offers. The practice is considered a breach of ethics under the Real Estate and Business Brokers’ Act of Ontario – administered by the Ontario council – and realtors who are caught can face hefty fines.

There are more than 52,000 real estate agents in Ontario (26,000 in Toronto) and last year they sold 194,793 existing homes in Ontario (84,872 in the Toronto market).

An informal poll of 30 Toronto-area agents taken yesterday by the Star suggests that virtually all believe that some form of phantom bidding exists in the market. More than two-thirds said some kind of structural reform in the way bids were handled was needed to address the problem.

However, more than half the agents said the problem is being caused by “a few bad apples.”

One prominent broker, who handles one of the city’s largest brokerages, calls the problem “rampant.”

“This is a major problem and it’s causing a black eye for the real estate community,” said the broker, who did not wish to be named. “You end up with one man at an auction bidding against himself – it’s plain fraudulent.” The broker says he gets an average of one complaint per day from his agents about potential phantom bidding.

He said he has complained for three years to directors at the Toronto Real Estate Board who “really don’t have the stomach for this. They don’t want to deal with the issue.”

O’Neill made her comments after learning the Star had received documents proving the Real Estate Council of Ontario has been called upon to deal with complaints about bidding war tactics.

Until this week, she steadfastly refused to acknowledge made-up bids occur, saying the Ontario council’s CEO Tom Wright and registrar Allan Johnson assured the Toronto body’s 18-member board on July 19 that no complaints had ever been received.

But the Ontario council’s spokesperson Sandra Gibney said yesterday that Wright and Johnson made no such statements and “RECO does not know why Maureen O’Neill is claiming otherwise.

“If Ms O’Neill had contacted RECO prior to responding to questions about RECO’s complaints statistics, RECO would have provided the same information that you received,” Gibney added in an emailed statement.

In response, an angry O’Neill said she “will certainly be calling (RECO) and asking what the hell is the problem. Certainly they have strained this relationship.”

O’Neill doesn’t think the answer lies in a formal registry and open bid process, something Michael Manley, the owner of Prudential Properties in the Beach, advocates.

“If a buyer doesn’t like the process, they can always walk,” O’Neill said. “I think that in a free marketplace, everyone wins.”

 
 
Comment by DC_Too
2008-01-10 13:52:21

Oh, my, the RE crowd is sooo different in Canada, too. I had to copy this from the “comments” in the Halifax article. Quick everybody, buy now!

“Ian Anderson from Dartmouth, Nova Scotia writes: As a Century 21 ABC Real Eatate Agent, I have been warning younger SINGLES and COUPLES since June 2004 - GET INTO A HOME ASAP EVEN IF YOU HAVE TO SUFFER FOR THE FIRST 5 YEARS

Our parents did - they got into the homes and lived with orange crates and plywood floors till they could afford more….AT LEAST THEY HAD THE HOME!

Those that listened now have equity in that if they spend their money wisely they are on thier way to living MORTGAGE FREE in 15 - 25 Years!

Its sure a nice feeling for them and me!”

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-10 14:16:18

My place in N.S. on the South Shore sold for ~15K in 1985. It would now bring 25x that.

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-01-10 14:29:24

That’s what one of my backward-looking friends up in Canada is thinking about the condo he “bought” off-plan last year. Big appreciation — has to be, because Canada is running out of place to put condos, you know.

It’s still not finished, but he’s convinced that it will be a real moneymaking flip for him — and the salesman has been sending him e-mails every month or two telling him how much the vapor-condo has appreciated since he bought it.

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-10 17:29:42

Mine is one of those 100 year old Atlantic Saltboxes. I inherited it and should sell it but it has sentimental value. I love that area. Too bad it is so hard to get to.

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Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-01-10 17:56:59

I’ve seen many photos of the area, got many visitor reports, and to me the climate is even likable (I like the wet, cold maritime stuff). Never been there myself, but one day, one day.

I suppose the fact that it is hard to get to is probably what’s kept it less polluted with new junk than most other coastal areas. Enjoy your place whenever you get the chance, and since it’s a family place, ignore the appreciation and financial aspects — which is something my friend with a generic new luxury condo cannot do.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by sohonyc
2008-01-10 13:53:36

If anyone missed Bernanke’s speech…wow…

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080110a.htm
“Even as their balance sheets expanded, banks began to report large losses, reflecting the sharp declines in the values of mortgages and other assets. Thus, banks too became subject to valuation uncertainty, as could be seen in their share prices and other market indicators such as quotes on credit default swaps. The combination of larger balance sheets and unexpected losses also resulted in a decline in the capital ratios of a number of institutions. Several have chosen to raise new capital in response, and the banking system retains substantial levels of capital. However, on balance, these developments have prompted banks to become protective of their liquidity and balance sheet capacity and thus to become less willing to provide funding to other market participants, including other banks. As a result, both overnight and term interbank funding markets have periodically come under considerable pressure, with spreads on interbank lending rates over various benchmark rates rising notably. We also see considerable evidence that banks have become more restrictive in their lending to firms and households. More-expensive and less-available credit seems likely to impose a measure of financial restraint on economic growth.”

(The amazing thing is, he’s saying it like they just figured all of this out…. Perhaps we should invite him to be a part of this board? The real bomb of course was this tidbit that Bernanke closed with:)

“Based on that evaluation, and consistent with our dual mandate, we stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.”

(Got gold?)

Comment by combotechie
2008-01-10 15:56:39

“(Got gold?)”

How about “(Got cash?)”. The banks aren’t lending which is creating a cash shortage.
Deflation has arrived.

Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-10 16:05:20

Yes… I figured there was yet another rate cut. You would have figured that by now the Fed boys would realize that even if they cut the rate to zero and bleed the dollar to death, the problems still remain: There is a lack of affordability and lack of consumers with the cash or financial assets to support the economy.

The ole’ cliche’ is that no modern society can survive without a middle class. Since the middle class is now in debt up to their eyeballs in the US, this makes the attempts to prop things up via rate cuts all the more futile. The Fed cut will only make Wall Street happy for another day or so then it will be back to business as usual for this recession.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-10 16:14:57

With one item, you need go to 10,000 feet under the Earth’s surface to find more, and with the other item, you merely set the printing presses in such a way, to be able to print to your heart’s content.

 
 
 
Comment by Minnow
2008-01-10 13:59:06

We’re being given a second chance, as now’s the time to start shorting those Canadian megabanks and mortgage companies for the inevitable housing collapse. Recommendations/research pointers gladly accepted….

Minnow

Comment by Flatlander
2008-01-10 14:20:46

The Canadian banking system is much different than the U.S. . . . very few in number, but large national banks. Don’t count on a major meltdown. A 40 year mortgage is not toxic, especially if there is some cash down and sound underwriting. If common sense goes out the window . . . all bets are off.

Comment by az_owner
2008-01-10 14:59:27

The idea that that 65.3% one-year appreciation on condos in Regina is anything but a bubble is laughable. Now the question is how to make money off the inevitable correction.

Comment by jrochest
2008-01-10 23:56:56

Particularly when you realize that the ‘condos’ are 50 year old walk-up rental buildings with cosmetic upgrades: buy a 40 unit building, give each unit a new kitchen and bathroom, lay some flooring and paint the walls. Suddenly a junker that rented for 500 a month will cost 1800 a month to carry. I’m not planning on buying here any time soon.

There’s no new construction because there’s no legislation in place to protect rental housing stock. That kind of legislation does exist in Toronto and Montreal, which is why all the condos there are new construction.

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Comment by ugh
2008-01-10 17:05:29

Short the crap outta CIBC. They’re toast.

Remember to send me 10% of your take.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-10 13:59:22

Congrats to Medicine Hat & all points east & west of it…

Comment by bizarroworld
2008-01-10 18:56:54

Once igloo prices spike 100% in Yellowknife, Dawson, Whitehorse, and Inuvik, then there will truly be a bubble. Also with global warming, I can see Greenland being the next condo goldmine. Godthab could be the next London in a few years. Bubbles are bubbles and it doesn’t matter if it’s Canada or California, they do go bust.

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2008-01-10 14:07:38

Countrywide had quite the day. I’m not sure what it means to short the stock but did anyone get in on the action?

Comment by MacAttack
2008-01-10 14:22:13

HORRIBLE idea. Not much difference in payment, and ten extra years of interest.

 
Comment by mad_tiger
2008-01-10 14:42:50

HA! I’ll bet ‘Zilo is pleading with BofA to keep this Countrywide asset:

http://tinyurl.com/3cvr9h

That is of course assuming he has a job post-acquisition.

Rumor has it that a custom tanning bed is installed onboard. I suppose the “888″ has some other-worldly significance. Either that or it’s Countrywide’s toll-free number.

 
Comment by talon
2008-01-10 14:55:52

If you’d shorted the stock yesterday, you would have had quite the bad day.

Comment by Tom
2008-01-10 15:28:31

But if you bought puts you’re still in the game… But you may not cash in…

 
 
 
Comment by Greenlander
2008-01-10 14:10:43

I think I’ve heard of this “Canada” place before. Where exactly is it again?

Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-01-10 14:31:22

Think of North Dakota. But less crowded. And colder. And shorter days, in winter at least. ;-)

Comment by ugh
2008-01-10 17:09:36

And mosquitos the size of helicopters.

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-01-10 18:03:48

Oh, and did I forget… taxes the size of Massachusetts?

 
 
 
Comment by no mo So Cal
2008-01-10 14:32:59

I don’t like 3 month long growing seasons. You can have it.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:24:51

The west coast has very mild winters and great weather with the cool summers. Southern Ontario and east coast of Nova Scota and Newfoundland have pretty good weather as well. My parents didn’t like the Toronto winters. Its actually one of the mildest parts of Canada save for the west coast. Explains why houses on the west coast are the most expensive in Canada. Same goes for coastal California, Oregon, Washington.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-10 14:37:45

My Aunt’s house in Calgary is going up for sale soon, and as she’s in a elder hostel now, it’s going to sell.

It’s a good location, near a sports complex on 55th ave s/w

It’ll be interesting to see how quick it goes?

I think she paid something like $20k for it, way back when.

Comment by Van Gogh
2008-01-10 15:10:42

My Father’s house is going up for sale in Vancouver shortly.

Paid $ 11,000 for it and it will probably go for over $ 800,000 and probably will be a tear down.

Bought my ex a house in Vancouver in 1985 for $ 185,000 and she has turned down unsolicited offers of $ 1.5 Million recently for it.

My brother just sold a dump in Surrey on 2 acres for $ 1.3 million that he paid $ 30,000 about 25 years ago.

With all this going on, how can one even think that logic or reason exists anywhere anymore? I sure don’t and that is why i have been buying gold offshore for the past 5 years or so and continue to add to it .

TPTB and the banking system IS totally corrupt to enable this kind of crap to have gone on and when the Butcher Has to Be Paid (for society in whole) for this, the cost will be enormous.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:28:29

Like parts of California, I predict a 75% drop in house prices. Theres million dollar 1000-1500 square feet ugly houses in the bay area, San Jose, Saratoga, Cupertino, etc that are worth “only” $250k which is still expensive but affordable since $100k salaries can support $250k homes

Comment by scdave
2008-01-10 15:37:32

25%-30% of gross income towards PITI is more than confortable assuming you are not in debt up to your a$$ in credit cards, cars & boats…Particularly after tax…

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-10 14:44:37

Every Saskatoon tells a storey, don’t it?

“Duggleby expects the Regina market to follow in Saskatoon’s footsteps just as Edmonton followed in the footsteps of Calgary’s housing boom.”

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:04:05

Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-08 16:10:01

Where in the heck are you looking? My whole family lives in TN. You can still get a pretty nice place for under 150k. I’ve seen some -even historic homes- in TN for under 100k. Here’s the thing: there’s only about 4.5 million people in the whole state. The major cities: Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga are spread apart far enough to make them non-commutable from one city to the next. Drive 15 minutes or less outside of any of those cities and it turns into rural farmland and sometimes simply nothing but undeveloped land.

I recall seriously buying a 32 acre farm 20 miles outside Nashville last year. The place had a large farm house, barn, pond, a wooded area, creek, and fields. All for 160k.

The expensive parts of TN are the places that seem to somehow get touted as “the place” to live for out of staters. Places like Franklin in TN, or Farragut in Knoxville where the wealthy of the city lives. Sure- homes there are anywhere from 250-400k. But elsewhere homes are a fraction of that.

My Wife is from PA, and there’s no way in hell that PA is cheaper than TN. That and it gets cold there, so you’d better count on paying for heat. I would do some serious research first before you decide on PA because I lived in one, and have visited the other. Needless to say, TN has my vote hands-down.

My answer:

Mostly in Bristol, TN as it’s the best and safest part. Under $150k? LOL I can get a pretty nice place for around $150k in some parts of Florida including Port Saint Lucie and Cape Coral. But $150k is way too much, my income does not support this price level. Most people in fact can NOT afford $150k as most people do NOT make $60k a year.

Oil city has decent houses as cheap as $15k. Huge selection for around $50k. My research shows that Pennsylvania is more than twice as cheap(please find some nice houses in TN for under $50k and ill compare them with PA) also please find some low crime towns in TN. Bristol has twice the crime of Oil City/Franklin. I will agree the weather, at least in the winter is better in TN. That’s about the only major advantage I can see from my research. Oh and the taxes are a little lower unless you have alot of cash in assets as the state charges 6% income tax on dividens and interest.

I have yet to find a good, safe, affordable location further south than NW Pennsylvania. Other locations do not meet all three factors. For instance, I can get a decent house for $50k in south Georgia but it’s very unsafe. North Georgia is good and safe but very unaffordable(need like $200k+ for a decent house)

Comment by jetson_boy
2008-01-10 16:17:07

I… dunno… I would be doing some serious vacationing in PA if that’s your choice. I’ve been up in the parts of PA you’re referring to, and there is basically a whole lot of… nothing. The first time I went up there, it was before I had ever lived in a major metro. I grew up in the sticks. But that part of PA was more than just the sticks.

If you want cheap and want to live near something resembling a major industrial/economic base, then you might want to consider Pittsburgh. Sure- the area is sort of in between boom/busts. But all in all, it’s sort of a hidden gem amongst national cities. That and it is insanely cheap. I have seen a number of homes there for under 40k. But I’m not sure what kinds of neighborhoods they were in.

If you’re talking about trying to find a 50k house, of which very few existed even 5 years ago in the most remote parts of areas that I’m familiar with: TN, NC, GA, etc, then you might want to do some thinking. If that be the case, then you might actually be better off renting, but doing so in a more metropolitan area where the money pays decent.

My plan all along has been to live in a decent metro with higher wages, pay a disproportionately small amount on rent by having housemates ( My rent is $550 a month in the SF Bay Area) and save up the income.I save roughly 65% of my income monthly doing this.My income here is also about twice as much as it would be elsewhere. I’ve been doing that for 8 years now, and by the time the bubble subsides, I’ll probably be able to buy a home in a decent area for cash or at least enough to make the payments minuscule, and sock the rest away in retirement plans. Of course for now I’m basically doing the rat-race thing which is sort of annoying, but I’m a young-un’, so I figure I might as well do it now.

Let’s say you buy that 50k house. If it costs that little, then there’s a good chance it exists in an area with little in economic opportunity. If that’s the case, then you will only have equity in the house, which itself might gain very little, or even lose value. By any count, while I too wouldn’t mind a 50k house, I think that’s a bit unrealistic, bubble or not. The only other thing I can think of that you could consider is to buy raw land and get a smaller log cabin kit.I looked into these and you can get a decent one for 45k and then do the interior yourself.

Anyhow, we all have our little plans. Good luck whatever you do!

Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 18:24:16

I estimate you earn $60k annually. I am self employed with an internet business. I estimate ill earn around $40k annually within two years(I am getting there but it takes time) there is no benefit to where I live, my salary is the same anywhere. Most jobs pay less than what ill be making by being self employed. I see people with bachelor’s degrees making $25k a year in most states and around $40k in California.

At current house prices, I would need a $100k annual salary to afford a decent $250k house here in palm beach county. In the bay area, id be looking at around $250k income in order to touch a decent $700k house. How much are you predicting house prices will drop? If that $700k house drops to $250k, I would still need $100k salary.

For that reason, it is no wonder why there is the “middle class flight” to cheaper cities where houses can be had for $50k to $100k. Yes Pittsburgh is one of those such cities. I haven’t ruled that city out, but I must be in a low crime suburb or neighboorhood and I must have a decent house for around $50k. There also must be shopping that is walking, biking and/or bus distance away. Prices in the Pittsburgh area are about $50/foot. In Oil City or Franklin they are around $33/foot. Is it worth the 50% premium to be in the Pittsburgh metropolis? The winters(Janurary) are 37/20 vs. 34/16 degrees and 2/3 as much snow in Pittsburgh so thats an advantage there. But id be much more worried how safe that area is and if theres any really safe areas that compare to Oil City/Franklin. Maybe someone in the know can tell me more and point out which parts/suburbs to recommend. I need to be walking distances to shopping or the bus stop as I don’t drive nor own a car.

Zillow zestimated 800 sf 2/1 shacks for $20k in 1998 and $50k for nice 3/2 1300 sf starter houses in Gainesville. If prices fall back to 1998 levels, $50k will get me a such house. This would make Gainesville as cheap as Pittsburgh which Zillow says was the case before the bubble inflated prices big time in Florida but not so much elsewhere.

You speak of “equity” but I don’t buy this as house prices won’t bottom out before 2012 and some say not before 2015. Once the bottom is met, prices will increase just above the inflation rate. This makes houses a terrible investment long term compared to stocks/funds.

As for raw land and a cabin, I may do just that for a second home outside town where I can enjoy the country and nature. But for now I am buying a house in town. Thanks all who read this and please give me more information about Pittsburgh and it’s suburbs.

Comment by Amy P
2008-01-10 21:25:41

Squirrel Hill is a delightful, walkable Pittsburgh neighborhood with a main street and a 30 minute pedestrian commute to University of Pittsburgh, and an even shorter walk to Carnegie Mellon. Murray Ave. has a library, a JCC, a Barnes and Noble, a Panera’s, a movie theater, a post office, a grocery store, etc. all within about 5-10 minute’s walk. When we lived there, it was a largely Jewish/Russian Jewish neighborhood with a synagogue on just about every block. We lived there three happy years 1998-2001 in a large $600 one-bedroom apartment. It’s one of the best Pittsburgh neighborhoods, so the housing stock (which is beautiful) isn’t cheap, and I’ve heard complaints about the tax environment. I would suggest renting cheaply there and enjoying an excellent quality of life. Pittsburgh is a challenging place to find work, but it is a great town. (I should add that the area around the University of Pittsburgh has very nice restaurants and used book stores, as well as the Carnegie Museum, but it is less tidy and safe-feeling than Squirrel Hill.)

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Comment by AnnScott
2008-01-10 21:40:51

There also must be shopping that is walking, biking and/or bus distance away.

TRust me - that is NOT NW PA. I speak as someone who grew up in the area north of Pittsburgh and south of Erie; and went to college in Meadville (35 miles NW of Oil City.)

We are not talking centers of cultural activities, restaurants much beyond a steak/burger/fish and a beer in Oil City/Franklin or a high number of computer tech savvy people. (In fact I would be very careful to check and make sure you can get broadband service at all. Many rural areas do not have it or only have it in very very limited areas.) You also better be real interested in fishing and hunting Bambi.

You may want to consider Meadville or the surrounding area. That is the home of one of the top 100 liberal arts collges in the US. Also right off the interstate so easy access to Pittsburgh or Cleveland.

What anyone living in Florida would consider ‘crime’ is a pretty foreign concept for western PA. Break ins are usually good ole boys in their early teens who go into empty hunting cabins.

BTW kit houses are NOT worth the money. All they ship is enough to put up the structure and it costs way more than having someone do it locally. The expensive part in construction is the interior work.

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Comment by Grey
2008-01-10 16:25:54

I graduated from ETSU. Johnson City is a nice little area (the tri-cities). I’ve heard it’s really built up since 1988. Bristol is lovely as well. Does Bristol still have that lit up arch that let’s you know if you’re on the TN or VA side?

I owed a home in Franklin, TN. Huge garage, 5/2.5. Bought it for $212K. Sold it less than 18 months later for $235K. Property taxes were $1800 per year.

I hated owning a SFH. Never again. It was a huge pain in the butt.

 
 
Comment by Northof49
2008-01-10 15:12:19

I’ve beeen a lurker here for 6 months or so, and as a resident of Saskatoon, I am very interested in people’s take on the Canadian situation. I’m thinking of selling my house this summer and renting, since I feel things are way out of line here from a common sense and affordability perspective.

From the bit of research i’ve done, it would appear on the surface that CMHC (which insures mortgages) does demand evidence of good credit and ability to pay. It seems prices here were fairly normal until rises in prices as as a result of the oil boom futrther west forced “investors” to look at our local market, which has driven up prices, and started an unjustified mania of speculation.

On the other side of the coin, our major exports are oil, wheat, potash, uranium, all sectors which may do relatively well in the future. I also don’t foresee an influx of head offices and a huge jump in wages, and I’m pretty sure people aren’t coming for the weather. I just cannot believe there is any justification for median home prices in the 290,000 range in this city.

Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:19:44

Sell your house, rent for half the cost and invest the rest. The 10% capital gains will let you retire early. I wish my parents had listened to me and sold. Now their “equity” is evaporating, they are missing out on about half a million in capital gains, it’s shocking!

Comment by kelowna_steve
2008-01-10 16:21:14

There are no capital gains on a primary residence sale in Canada. Doesn’t matter if its $100K or $5M - the whole amount is tax free.

Comment by Canuck Again
2008-01-10 17:01:45

I see Kelowna as part of your name and am trying to get some insight into the Kelowna, BC real estate market from you or anyone else. I’m new here and see plenty of warning signs, myself - but can’t seem to find others with similar concerns. They tell me it’s better here, so I should expect to pay more.

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Comment by yogurt
2008-01-11 00:54:43

Kelowna is absolutely insane. It’s more expensive than Toronto, with no economy except fruit picking and real estate.

Just check out the price/rent - that’s all you need to know. I think it’s over 300.

 
 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 18:26:46

10% capital gains is in funds invested. Sell the house for $500k, invest that money and you will have $550k after one year, $605k after two years, etc, etc

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Comment by Blue Skye
2008-01-10 15:40:55

What is rent going to cost you relative to the house price? What are the taxes on a $290K house?

Comment by Northof49
2008-01-10 20:34:11

I bought the house about 4 yrs ago for 110,000. Estimated rent for something I would like is now ~850 mo. My monthly ownership cost is ~1050 mo. including taxes of approx . 170/mo. right now, but will go up upon reassessment based on current market value. Oustanding mort. around 85 grand. I don’t have really have anything to lose by continuing to own, but possibly a nice gain if I sell and rebuy after a price drop (if prices drop substantially). To answer your question regarding taxes, I estimate taxes on a 290,000 house at ~ 5000/yr or 416/mo.

Comment by jrochest
2008-01-11 00:09:52

Uh, I wouldn’t. Rents are too volatile to be trusted: there’s no limit to the size and number of increases you can get in a year, and there’s a zero percent vacancy rate now. One of the strategies to drive people to ‘invest’ in condos seems to be the systematic elimination of rental housing stock.

I’m renting at the moment, and I’ve lost two apartment units to condo conversion — one I moved out of, and one that ‘went condo’ after I’d signed the lease but before I’d moved in. I’m now seeing 1,000 a month basement apartments (admittedly in Nutana, but still), which were normal in Toronto, but unheard of here.

Sit tight. It’s still going to go up further, although I agree with you that it’s going to crash like mad, but not in the immediate 4 year window: you could very easily wind up living in a basement in Mount Pleasant for 1,300 a month.

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Comment by yogurt
2008-01-11 00:57:47

Yeah right. The US recession and the high CAD are going to clobber Toronto. Just like the early 1990’s.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Van Gogh
2008-01-10 16:18:19

Fwiw. Even though i am a real housing bear i live in my own paid for home in Alberta and also have a paid for home in B.C. on the Sunshine Coast (but i can afford this “luxury”). Saskatoon is still relatively cheap (but not historically cheap) and a good place to be in relation to other places and as well i think the worm has finally turned economically for Saskatchewan. I don’t know your personal situation but having one’s own place is always good imho and unless selling out means a big gain to your personal financial situation you may want to hold on for the certainty of having your own place.

This is and has been a true Global Financial Asset and Credit Mania and it can not end well in the final analysis so just be certain in your final choice. As a matter of interest, it seems that real estate prices have peaked for now in (all of) Alberta and are at least quite illiquid and also going down in price with foreclosures starting to happen in earnest so that may enough of a tell for you to sell and stand aside.

In any event good luck to you on whatever choice you make.

Comment by Northof49
2008-01-10 20:41:19

I agree that there are some advantages to ownership, and my house in particular is somewhat interesting and is a good location, within walking distance to work and almost everywhere else I want to be. My wife and I do entertain the thought of moving to the west coast, and at least rising prices here in SK may make the move a little easier financially. I also agree that the mindset her in SK has improved, and there is a feeling that the provnce has increased potential (provided the global and NA economy allows for continued growth)

Good luck to you also.

 
 
Comment by 45north
2008-01-10 21:54:21

Northof49: I just cannot believe there is any justification for median home prices in the 290,000 range in this city.
read somewhere that 97.5% of mortgages in the US are paid up, the problem is the 2.5% that aren’t. I would say in Canada the figure is 99%. That is the difference between a housing collapse and a slow market, between a lot of crime and a little. An economic slowdown is not going to hit everyone and everyplace the same - there will be winners and losers. Safe places will become more attractive vis-à-vis chaotic places. Do you think that Saskatoon is safe, is it going to stay safe? I have been to Regina, I thought it was very safe, I expect it to stay that way. I’m afraid of three things: depression in the US, higher energy prices and global food shortage. Saskatoon looks pretty good!

God bless America!

 
 
Comment by potential buyer
2008-01-10 15:17:55

Does anyone recommend a mutual fund consisting of metals - gold, silver, etc.? I’m assuming there is such a thing?

Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 15:37:07

Your late to the game for precious metals. I recommend other types of mutual funds that arent bubbly

Comment by Arizona Slim
2008-01-10 16:03:03

Such as? Gimme a fer-instance.

Comment by Mike G
2008-01-10 16:11:50

TAVFX - Third Avenue Value Fund.
Their strategy is to find stocks that are ’safe and cheap’ — unpopular industries, bonds of bankrupt companies, little-known foreign holding companies, stuff that many mutual funds won’t touch.
They sometimes have periods of underperformance waiting for their ‘dogs’ to turn around (right now they’re heavily into financials which have taken a hit with the housing collapse, such as MBIA) but have a fairly good performance record if you hold long term.

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Comment by Mike G
2008-01-10 16:07:56

CEF - Central Fund of Canada is a closed-end fund (you buy and sell it much like a stock) that holds 50% gold, 50% silver.

Comment by bob carpenter
2008-01-11 03:21:05

Gold and Silver is not overbought. Back in 1980 you could buy gold for 800.00 an ounce. The dow was at 850 back then. Today the Dow is at 13,000 and Gold is still at relatively the same price. Show me anything that I can buy at 1980 prices.

Buy Silver bullion or small silver companies. The big silver companies will run first, like PAAS but eventually the small companies will shine. You need alot of patience with the small ones.

 
 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-01-10 16:03:20

OT….I know, but regarding CFC-BAC.

Does this make sense?

CFC is in trouble. They go to BAC, as their largest preferred shareholder and long time partner. BAC says ‘we want the servicing portfolio and are the only ones out there large enough to manage it. We want the branch network. We don’t want the loans’. In BK court they can have what they want and not the loans on the books. Could this a BK play?

 
Comment by Dave of the North
2008-01-10 16:27:54

As the Chronicle herald article says, Saint John prices have risen 43% over the last year for bungalows, and 25% for two stories. I live outside of Saint John in Quispamsis and prices are rising here as well. There is lots of building going and it is hard to get tradespeople - many went out west to the oil patch. For example some one at work wants to build a new home, but the builders have said - sure, we can start a year from now…
Are we starting into a bubble - yes. Is there any basis for the bubble? - some. There is an LNG terminal being built plus a pipeline. Also planning has started for a second oil refinery. There is even talk of a second nuclear reactor. (Many thanks to the NIMBY’s in the US…).
However, if there is a recession this year in the US, that may put a damper on energy demands and may short circuit some of the these projects.

 
Comment by Seattlekid
2008-01-10 16:36:25

So having living in Vancouver much of my life and still have many friends, associates, and family there I can attest to the madness related to RE in the region. People are losing there minds when it comes to junping into RE regardless of price. I recently had a converstation with someone whereby I articulated why prices in the region can’t go higher due to the disconnect related to peoples earnings, the response I recived was simply…”they’re building a train system into here which will on rise prices”…completely absurd I responded, since that train system will not give people and extra $50K/year to afford the home prices. There are so many folks I know who have leveraged everything to get into a home, whereby I’ve attempted to tell them not to. For example, I know of one couple renting an almost new suite (2bdr) for under $800/month, the same suite would sell for greater than $350K in the area…there simply is no ROI at those prices.

Furthermore, Vancouver was hit by a correction 15 years ago whereby prices fell by close to 40% in a matter of months, people were left holding nothing and sold for pennies on the dollar. The foolish behavior and mindset in the current market is simply lemming like behavior, before they fall off the cliff. The market is 6 months behind that of Seattle which is also slowly seeing a correction. IMHO, the correction which will be taking place in Vancouver over the next 12-18 months will be akin to that of Miami and LA. The median price of a “average” home where my folks live is greater than $1M! No one in that neighborhood pulls in over $200K/year but homes have appreicated at almost 15% every year for the last 5, whereby incomes have remained stagnant. There is going to be a drop in RE of 40%, if not more. People are simply getting “free” money from lenders and leveraged to the hilt in many cases…hence the enormous number of “pot homes” in the area.

I was up there a week ago and EVERYONE (barber, store clerk, etc…) was talking about either their RE “investment” or getting into the RE game…it’s only a waiting game and when the US catches the proverbial cold, in all cases, so does Canada…it’s only a matter of time.

Comment by yogurt
2008-01-11 01:04:12

Couldn’t have put if better myself. It’s exactly the same idiocy that gripped the US two years ago, yet people either are unaware of this or have convinced themselves “it’s different here” due to bogus reasons like the 2010 Olympics. You think places like Seattle have attitude - well at least it has Microsoft, etc. Vancouver is pure hype.

 
 
Comment by housing hanky panky
2008-01-10 16:46:08

More on CFC-BAC

Read this article and “PLEASE NOTE THE DATE”

Does history repeat?

January 26, 2007

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. , the No. 2 U.S. bank, and Countrywide Financial Corp. , the largest U.S. mortgage lender, are in talks that could lead to a joint venture or merger, the Financial Times said on its Web site on Friday.

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Breaking News Alerts Countrywide shares rose as much as 12.1 percent, but gave up much of that gain to end up $1.71, or 4.2 percent, at $42.00. Bank of America shares fell 36 cents to $52.04.

Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri declined to discuss the report. Countrywide did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Citing people close to the matter, the newspaper said the two companies have held talks about a possible combination.

Bank of America might acquire Countrywide in a transaction that could value the latter at $30 billion, or enter a joint venture under which it would use its branch network to sell home mortgages originated by Countrywide, the newspaper said. Talks are at an early stage and could fall apart, it said.

Countrywide’s market value was roughly $26.1 billion as of Friday’s close.

“I think it makes sense for B of A,” said Brian Rohman, who helps manage $30 billion at Robeco Investment Management in New York. “B of A is a quintessential consumer bank, with retail banking and credit cards, so this fits into that. You could make the case that they are buying assets when they are out of favor. You can’t argue with the logic of that.”

Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America has 5,747 U.S. branches, roughly 2,300 more than any other company. It is the largest U.S. credit card issuer and controls 9 percent of U.S. deposits, more than any rival.

 
Comment by who cares
2008-01-10 17:40:20

The sad fact is that canucks are even more delusional than the people in the USA.

They believe they have the best of everything and they are morally superior and smarter than people in the USA. It is different here.. you know.

These morons are systematically brain washed from birth to say that things are better in Canada when they are not. There is a reason the most educated 1.2 million of them live in the US. But honestly admitting envy and a deep seated inferiority complex is uncanuck.

They are going to find out they are wrong, the hard way. They think their banks (smaller than many large US banks) are bulletproof and they are run by smart people who act with the long term in mind.

It is doubtful that banks other than TD-Canada trust will survive with their current ownership in 2 years from now. It is quite possible that no canadian bank will survive in it’s current form. HSBC might buy CIBC, UBS might go for RBC/ BMO etc. ATB, National are toast.

They also think any US recession won’t hit them. This from a country that sells over 80% of their stuff directly to the US, and the other 15% to countries making stuff for the US. They believe that natural resources and US owned manufacturing won’t take a hit during a severe US and probably a global recession.

Can anyone justify why vancouver and victoria is more expensive (over 10 times median family income)than seattle? Do people really like to stay in calgary, edmonton, regina, saskatoon, winnipeg. Even places like ottowa and montreal are crap compared to equivalent US cities. Toronto is the pretty much the only world class city here - a 2nd tier one at best.

Honestly, why would you pay more more to rent (let alone buy) a vancouver dowtown highrise (2 bedroom condo) when you could rent a small SFH in a well maintained community a few minutes from UCSD in San Diego for less. And you could actually use the swimming pool and patio for most of the year. What new high paying jobs can one find in vancouver, other than in pot grow-ops? Victoria - nice city in the summer, but try finding jobs that pay over 80k a year that are not government or RE related.

And do you know that CPP (canada pension plan) which is a much more underfunded version of SS is trying to stabilize the ABCP market by buying billions of securities (over 6 b) that no one wants to touch with a 10 foot pole.

Comment by ugh
2008-01-10 19:09:14

I agree with what you wrote.

We (canada) are toasted. Our banks are walking dead (except as you said, TD/CT.)

FWIW my little bedroom town an hour from Toronto can’t support 5x income house prices.

 
Comment by creamofthecrap
2008-01-10 20:11:57

Agree 100% about the whole “things are different here” syndrome in Canada. The increases there are ridiculous, especially in Vancouver.
It’s not going to be pretty for Canada is the US economy tanks as many expect. But it will be tempered by continued strong global demand for oil and other commodities.

That being said… what a diatribe! Yeah, Canadians are so damned nasty… it would be much better to have Iran as a neighbor ;-) Let’s keep to housing, and away from nationalistic belligerence.

 
Comment by Bye FL
2008-01-10 21:38:47

Thats why I predict a 75% drop in prices. Vancouver and Victoria have the mildest winters.

 
Comment by today_on_hbb
2008-01-11 00:04:19

Aggh! What morons in Canada? Take a look in the mirror..

Those 80% Canadian exports are likely mostly oil. When Americans stop driving their monster cars at $100 a fillup, then maybe Canada will get a serious pinch.

I just watched Drew Carey pontificate why life will be good in the U.S. when all expressways are converted to platinum lanes ($500/month), gold lanes ($100/month), etc..

Hey oil might be the least of your worries once privatization kicks in forcing you to pay or stay (stuck in gridlock).

I also just watched a clip of how people travel in luxury in France on the TGV sitting back with their laptops with wireless satellite internet. They’re probably reading this right now on their commute.

Canada has oil water minerals and brains and a sense of humour. (and a healthier housing market) chill dude.

 
Comment by betamax
2008-01-11 01:29:29

As a born-and-raised Canadian, I must say that I have never seen a more accurate and concise summation of the Canadian situation and Canadian beliefs. You nailed it.

 
Comment by Al
2008-01-11 07:43:30

I’m a Canadian through and through, and I can’t entirely agree with you. Canucks that are left leaning politically (a decent majority) think we’re better than you while Canucks that are right leaning often have a bit of US envy. I personnaly think we’re pretty similar, and that we’ll be following the US into the toilet. On the whole, we’re more inclined to follow the US into a foolish mess as apposed to creating it. Individual judgement required if this is better or not.

 
 
Comment by Patiently Waiting
2008-01-11 03:48:51

Soper commented. ‘Wages and salaries there aren’t that much superior to other parts of the country, so affordability is an issue.’”

Actually, my understanding is Vancouver wages are lower than most cities in Canada.

Bring on the pain.

HA HA to CIBC. I used to work for them, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer bank. 90% of my savings are with TD/CT.

 
Comment by Doug
2008-05-15 11:48:16

I would like to share an experience I recently had selling my home in Winnipeg, MB. My house was listed for $159,900…….double what I paid 4 years ago. The agents had one open house and then offers were accepted the following night. There was only one offer and it was well under list. My agent told me I should expect more then my list so when I saw this I was surprised but then he told me not to worry. I could not believe what happened next. Both Agents, (listing agent and selling agent) sat at my kitchen table and phoned the buyer with some bad news. The buyer was told that there was another offer (“A Phantom Bid”) which was a total lie, but who was I to say anything. These young buyers got nervous and offered $200,000 for a 60 year old-800sqft bungalow. WOW I was amazed and shocked……very happy to have made that much money but a feeling of guilt. How can this be legal??????? I watched these agents bamboozle this poor buyer until they were willing to pay way to much for my home…….oh well young, greedy, uneducated buyers seem to rule the market. As for me, I paid off my tiny mortgage and will be buying a brand new house just as soon as the market crashes…….maybe I’ll buy two houses.

Comment by Joanna
2008-07-04 12:29:46

That is very illegal and I too suspect that there are going to be many agents in hot water with the Canadian markets continuing to crash.

 
 
Comment by Gerry
2008-07-04 12:47:22

Existing home sales across Canada have plunged by more than 50,000 units in the first six months of 2008, according to figures released Thursday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The report showed that as of the end of June, 182,899 homes were sold nationwide through the multiple listing service (MLS) compared with 233,213 in the same period last year - a drop of 23%.

New listings continued to outpace sales in June, with the number of properties coming on to the market rising 2.8% from the prior month to a record 88,878, while sales declined month-over-month by 2.2% to 28,133 units. Compared with May of 2007, the number of sales dropped

 
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