Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 14, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
January 14, 2008
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Says it all
http://dallas.craigslist.org/acc/537890142.html
It makes me want to cry. My career has been badly hampered by a stint with a bad boss (mostly opportunity cost). I took a cut in pay to leave and never regretted the decision. I bet there are a lot of people who are going to be damaged by their time in mortgages.
And, hey, when you come out of college, you have no idea. In fact, most people have no idea how bad it can get. Part of my job interview preparation is purchasing a full D&B credit report (~$100) and reading it carefully. If you don’t want me to know about your credit score and tax liens, I don’t want to work for you.
“Part of my job interview preparation is purchasing a full D&B credit report (~$100) and reading it carefully. If you don’t want me to know about your credit score and tax liens, I don’t want to work for you.”
Could you please elaborate on this fascinating pearl of advice? What’s a D&B credit report and how do you apply it to the decision whether to take a job? Did you think of this strategy on your own; if not, where did you hear about it?
D&B = Dunn & Bradstreet.
Or go here: http://www.dnb.com/us/
I used them only for B2B credit issues. (or Hoover?) Thanks for the info LongIsland.
Not a new strategy, but a good one. I used this in my last hunt.
Yikes!
he probably didn’t feel that way when the money was rolling in.
That is exactly right Michael. He only got a conscience when the bucks stopped flowing. Pathetic hypocrite.
His salary request is 40k. Less than a legal secretary.
forensic audits?
i could hook him up if he would move to D.C.
There will be plenty of opportunities for Forensic auditors. Just apply to any bank or lending institution that survives this debacle. I know for a fact that they have more work than people.
Geez, cut the kid some slack. It took me awhile to figure out that my first company was involved in financial shenanigans. We know so little about his situation who knows why he stayed for a year?
forgive me for being cynical when someone gets religion when the SHTF.
i have experience with CFO’s of large corporations doing the same thing. my wife is a forensic accounting investigator for a large firm.
I get a feeling quite a few CFO’s will end up being UFO’s…
I’d give the kid a break and credit for getting out in a reasonable time. When you get out of school you stay for a year and tolerate it.
It’s hard enough to explain in an interview that you’re leaving (if you even want top admit it) because your company is a bunch of scoundrels, but it can be even harder to explain why you left your first job after just three months.
I worked for a crap company right out of school as well, with a boss who was eventually done in not only for fudging monthly numbers but also for getting his secretary pregnant, which was the final straw. And I had to share an office with that chain smoking idiot for months.
Happened to me too. (Except for the Secretary part.) So stressed I ended up depressed as hell, but needed a job, had taken too long to find one, and then I really, really just did not fit in. Financial issues were icing on the cake. Once I found a new job–close to a year in the position–buh bye.
So I have some sympathy for people fresh out of school.
After a few years of menial crapjobs (which followed a layoff), I grabbed a job at one of Pittsburgh’s universities. Alas, my boss turned out to be one of the biggest, no, make that THE biggest bee-atches I ever worked for. I lasted a little over a year.
But I did manage to exact a little revenge before I got out from under her thumb. I tendered my resignation on Friday, February 13, 1987, then spent the next six weeks strutting around the office with a big, fat grin on my face. She hated that. And that was my intention.
I’ve done some Google searches on her since, and have found that she is no longer in the career field that she was in when I worked for her. And it’s the kind of field that people tend to retire from. So, I can’t help wondering if something bad happened at some subsequent employer.
The craigslist posting has been deleted. Can someone recap what it said? Thanks.
Financial Analyst/Recent College Grad Seeks Change
——————————————————————————–
Reply to: job-537890142@craigslist.org
Date: 2008-01-13, 2:30PM CST
About Me:
1 year experience in Mortgage Servicing — recently promoted to Senior Analyst. BS Finance from a large state university. (2.9 final GPA) Performed forensic audits for hedge funds and major wall street banks.
I’m trying not to sound naive. I would like a job with role models. I have witnessed too many shady deals and bad practices already and I’m only 23.
Prefer Dallas or Irving
Location: Las Colinas
Compensation: 40,000
Principals only. Recruiters, please don’t contact this job poster.
Please, no phone calls about this job!
Please do not contact job poster about other services, products or commercial interests.
There’s got to be an REIC “reality show” here somewhere. The Realty Reality Series - how about “Shady Deals and Bad Practices”?
I thought the History Channel’s “Gangland” series was about the REIC.
I emailed the guy and invited him to come here to the HBB and tell us about it, anonymously of course.
i can’t wait for michael moore’s “documentary”.
it will be all sob story, poor me, i got screwed by big money banks, but i like laughing at those stories. will make great comedy.
you know it’s coming too. Too big of a target to pass by.
“Too big of a target to pass by.”
Michael Moore or the lending industry?
was at my sisters 40th b-day party on saturday and i was talking with an old friend of hers who is a partner at a large accounting firm. she told me they are like the cops and constantly having to watch these corporate crooks and wall street i-bank types
she said you let up for 1 minute and it’s off to the races for these guys
“she said you let up for 1 minute and it’s off to the races for these guys”
I believe it. There’s something really sick about the fact that some trader can execute a “vanity trade” just to say he was the first to buy oil at $100.00, and then have that move affect world markets. Globalization bites the big one and it has just given more opportunity to a bunch of parasites who game the system in their own favor, Enron-style.
yeah that story in sicko about the wife whose husband died because he was denied a transplant had me howling in laughter.
not that one. but the one where he was commmending france’s free healthcare system with the guy who spent a few months on the beach was a hoot.
Check out the documentary called “Michael Moore Hates America.” The title is really misleading, it is actually is pretty entertaining and well done. It definitely changed my view of Moore. I liked Sicko, but overall I think Moore is a doof. I don’t really take sides. This weekend I re-watched “The Corporation”, “End of Suburbia” and “Maxed Out.”
The Corporation should be required watching in every HS.
just added it to my queue.
I emailed the guy that did the documentary called “American Jobs” telling him that the real estate bubble might make a good documentary, especially if he started collecting clips now. I guess it was 2 years ago or more that I emailed him. He kindly emailed back, and said he was aware of it and what not. We will see.
It seems like only yesterday that everyone was calling me tin foil hat, the local paper was still viciously quoting the NAR every day in real estate puff pieces, and there wasn’t ads on the radio in Norfolk and Virginia Beach advertising free Carlton Sheets courses to help take advantage of the rapidly growing foreclosure market.
No doubt Moore will spew venom about how it is “all Bush’s fault” or how the bad “hoarders/savers need to pay to keep families in their unaffordable homes” or some drivel. Maybe he’ll blame it all on this blog: surely, it can’t be greed and stupidity that brought us to this!
The only two occasions I remember M. Moore blaming Bush were 9/11 and Iraq - you got a problem with any of these?
i think alot of the Moore detractors have never seen his films. To wit - in Bowling for Columbine, he does not end up advocating gun control. But that gets missed by the gun nuts.
I would think there would be high demand for forensic auditors over the next few years, given all the naked fraudsters flopping around out on the dry beach at the moment.
Yes, it’s becoming a big industry. I do forensic work, but on the development/structures side of things. The forensic financial/data recovery field has exploded in the last 1-2 years. And as TSHTF and the big boys try to cover their tracks, it’ll get even bigger.
A good recession proof (at least for the one we’re in) industry to be in right now, if you have the skill set.
Wow - he graduated with a 2.9 GPA! That’s worth putting in the ad.
Note that he went to a State U. i believe the grading is fairer in State Us. I have personal (was a college Prof) and anecdotal evidence to believe that a 2.9 from a Private U would be not worth crowing about. My kid goes to a prestigious Private U, got 3.9 so far, and I can’t believe the grade inflation!
Well, I expect that if one is shelling out 30K+ per year one doesn’t want junior to come home with a B average. Still, grade inflation is a bad thing.
Kind of reminds me of how the higer ed situation was (and perhaps still is) in Japan. Kids would struggle to get admitted to the top tier universities. They would attend all sorts of cram schools to ace the entrance exams. Then, once they were admitted, they would cruise through school and upon graduation get the choice jobs in gov’t and industry.
This sounds eerily similar to the situation here in the US. The graduates of Ivy league and other prestigious schools get the best jobs. Go to state and they won’t even touch you. I did an MBA (paid for by my employer) at Colorado State. Just for kicks I attended some of the recruiting events at the school. All of the employers who showed up were lame. Places like Enterprise Rent a Car. Yeah, that’s why I went to college, so that upon graduation I can work at the counter at a car rental place (and very few recruits move up into management, most are simply laid off and replaced with next years crop of grads). What struck me was how many “chew ‘em up and spit ‘em out” employers were there. Places you just knew they would work the kids to death before replacing them with next years grads.
I talked to a bunch of undergrads at these events to get their perspective on this. Most recognized that the majority of the firms that were recruiting just plain sucked. What I found truly remarkable was just how many were either planning on being entrepreneurs or already were. Things like a Subway franchise or a pizza shop. One guy had a business that cleans out grease traps at chain restaurants. And these were full time college students.
Anyway, this (in 2004) was when it really sank in to me that if you have a regular job that pays around 100K with benefits that you are truly special (and perhaps blessed), at least in my neck of the woods.
So if you want to be an entrepreneur, why waste time going to college? There’s 2 ways to get rich, playing with OPM, and working self employed and providing exceptional quality service/products.
While that’s encouraging that many of the rising generation want to get back to the roots of what made this contry great, they would be better served filling an “apprenticeship” working in the industry they want to be in for a couple years. Learn the stuff your employer does well, figure out what they do wrong, figure out how to fit it and do it better, save some money and go into business for yourself. IMO hands on training is a much better education than classroom lectures given all too often by people who have no real world experience.
Most of these kids we B School majors. Perhaps they thought (or still think) that they might pick up some useful skills in B-School. Who knows?
So if you want to be an entrepreneur, why waste time going to college?
Depends on what sort of entrepreneur you want to be. If you want to develop some new whiz-bang tech gadget, you’ll probably need at least the basics taught in a decent engineering program (BS and maybe MS, depending on the field), plus some real-world experience on top of that. I’ve been out of school for 15+ years and still use the stuff I learned for my engineering degrees on a daily basis.
From my personal experience in a private college, i’ll second that.
Who is going to spend 30-40K a year for a C+ average?
2.9 is still a mediocre GPA either way. Isn’t it standard job-seeking advice not to list your GPA if it isn’t good?
yikes, not sure if it is such a great idea to mention a 2.9 gpa.
they removed that link pretty quick
I can never understand the flagging at Craig’s. What do you suppose was wrong with that post? Do you think some people flag just to be mean?
You’re not supposed to post jobs wanted ads on the job boards.
…there’s that C average evidence again
http://tinyurl.com/2×3qzz
Obama Comments on Mortgage Crisis. Says could have been prevented, which is of course true. No great insights about what to do about it, however.
It was my prediction that the number one issue will be the economy/housing in November 2008, not Iraq.
UK property market slows down
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7186768.stm
I have family who are trying to sell in UK and they have not had much interest in 3 months. Not the same market it was a couple of years ago at all.
This means a lot more props on the market in the Disney area. The Brits are one of the biggest buyers of properties around Disney for 2nd homes. Bet a lot of them won’t be able to keep them.
Also expect good deals on Disney vacations in Florida this year as well. I expect the “free dining” program to expand substantially this year as the Brits and Euros stop coming.
Great if Disney’s prices drop. We wanted to go to the wine and cheese festival in the fall.
That might still be considered “high season”, but who knows?
I highly recommend it. Even if the prices don’t drop.
No bonusses for UBS top management.
http://www.sonntagszeitung.ch/wirtschaft/artikel-detailseite/?newsid=6689
This is not the way we pay bonuses in America.
Credit Suisse, HSBC say buy stocks now or be priced out forever! All the bad news is priced in; from here we go to the moon in ‘08!
The search for a new bubble continues.
It’s more like they want to keep a market alive.
Yyeah, what’s with all the upgrades today? Insinuation of a bottom?
Trying to lure in Joe Ultra-light 6 Pack to get stuck holding the bag once the market tanks. My bet is Bubbles Ben Bernanke will give a nice, big rate cut, which combined with the upgrades and other BS will keep the market floating around for a while longer to get the suckers - the American public - buy, Buy, BUY! Then, the big pigs cash out, the market tanks, and they laugh after having pulled every bit of money out of the average American. Mission Accomplished!
March is my guess.
Friday selloffs always point to Monday rebounds — dead cat thing, ya know?
Stocks Point to a Rebound
Stocks are poised to rally Monday, with an upbeat earnings assessment from IBM and growing rate-cut hopes offsetting a profit warning from Sears. Markets were higher in Europe and mostly lower in Asia. 8:19 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120031446135488309.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
The stock market’s level is a key leading economic indicator. Ergo there must not be a recession, so long as the stock market is going up.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Any predictions on for how long this latest bull-trap rally will play out?
Maybe the next bubble will be in dinosaurs.
January 14, 2008 10:47 A.M.EST
BULLETIN
IBM drives Monday rebound
Dow jumps more than 100 points as investors cheer preliminary results from IBM, which topped expectations. Shares of Sears Holdings’ down sharply amid warning of heavy losses to come.
marketwatch.com
Today’s market seems to have found the lame excuse for a rally that it was desperately seeking: Better-than-expected results from IBM. Never mind the steady drumbeat of multi-billion dollar write-down announcements from the investment banking sector.
Here’s he panel discussion from that NYC housing event last week. Apparently it was hard to find an optimist
http://www.wellcomemat.com/video/0DC1587DB7#wrapper
If I didn’t have to get the kids ready for school I’d listen to the whole hour but the five minutes I did get was surprising. I expected alot of Rah-Rah-ing with a sprinlke of negative news but really the people just seem…..resigned.
Good stuff. It even includes some great David Lereah bashing.
Just plain logic……i rent in a 2 family house it was worth $350K when i moved in now its “worth” maybe $750-800K It was a decent “investment” at $350K but you are just throwing your money away if you buy at $750K.
There is no way you would ever find 2 tenants to cover your mortgage taxes insurance at $750K Even if you include an illegal 3rd basement apt, you still would have negative cash flow each month.
So i will continue to rent until prices get to a point where i could at least break even let alone make $100-200 a month profit!. THAT is what investing in Real Estate really means.
If you have a spare hour today watch this video that txchick recommended. It’s great. They pretty much are telling it like it is and expect housing to be bad for 4 or 5 more years. Finally a panel that “gets” it.
Here’s he panel discussion from that NYC housing event last week. Apparently it was hard to find an optimist
http://www.wellcomemat.com/video/0DC1587DB7#wrapper
When the Main Street Real Estate establishment gets on board with the housing bubble blog, maybe it’s time to be a contrarian.
Their statements are always self serving, and they missed the boat on the bubble so badly that I would say they could be wrong again. I can’t see any rebound soon, but I am sure wary when the Main Street Media and the real estate people tell me things are bad.
It’s sad to report that gold’s run is now over. That baboon Cramer was recommending that his “fans” buy gold and gold stocks during his little investment minute during Chicken Box this morning. Can there ever be a better contrary indicator?
Gawd. I have some of the 401ks I help with in gold stocks since 2004. Guess I’ll start selling them out now.
reminds me of when i was following the casey serin saga. he was talking about future opportunities with a caller on one of his pod cast about precious metals.
at the end of the call the caller said “thanks…i gotta run…gonna go sell all my precious metal positions”.
The problem is… no one is perfectly wrong. Some people are more wrong than they are right, and they can be contrarian indicators, but one has to be careful about mechanically doing the opposite of someone who may be a contrarian indicator. That person might just be randomly wrong too.
Stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.
Someone who is perfectly wrong suggests that there is someone who can be perfectly right. And not even Buffet is perfectly right.
The same guy who told everyone to buy CFC for $44? Does anyone take his advice any more?
I heard last week that if you took Apple, Amazon, RIMM and Google out of the Nasdaq you would have wiped out 60% of that index’s gains for 2007. How will that chimp named Cramer fare in a bull market when his “Four Horsemen of Tech” find the time rough going? I’m guessing he will fare about as well as a stock picking hamster.
Bear market, not bull market.
If you want to know the answer to that, find his “Winners of the New World” column circa early 2000 and see where all those are now.
Never mind. I did it for you.
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/smarter/891820.html
and for a bit of historical perspective, the top of the Nasdaq was two weeks away the day he wrote that column and the April Nasdaq crash was 6 weeks away.
Good one. And he still leaves that column available?
Well, I guess Verisign is still around, and only lost 85% of its value since then. (That was the shining star performer out of that list.)
Remember when he had the Tan Man guest host his show when he was away? Brilliant stuff. I think it was last Mar/Apr time.
my wife cleaned out her jewelery box this weekend and found some old gold bracelets and chains that i will sell
i saw signs on rt. 9 ou t in south jersey this weekend telling you to call and sell your old gold
Places that buy scrap gold, tend to buy it based upon the fact that most people don’t know karats and weights, and the idea that they have to hold anything they buy, for a period of time, as per the law.
Which means you’ll get around 1/2 of the actual Gold value, for your goods.
The same applies to the tv commercials along the same vein, which cost a LOT of money to air over and over again.
When I use to sell gold the retail buyers would only give you about 77% of market value.When I was younger me and some friends would go mineing on the american river near colfax ca.Back after the 1986 flood I watched good snipers pull out ounces of nice nuggets right out of small crevices in the bedrock.One guy had a film tube filled with nuggets from the days work. Another guy I knew found a 2 lb nugget interlaced with quartz that he sold to wells fargo bank.
retired friends found 2 nuggets last year in AZ, one sold for 15k, the other for 10k.
Speaking of gold, I went to a wedding last weekend that you guys would have liked. My Episcopalian girlfriend married a Vedic man, and the tradition in his culture is to give the bride gold. No blenders, no chip’n'dips, no ugly vases to regift. Just pounds of wonderful gold jewelry, presented to the bride in gorgeous chests at the end of the wedding ceremony. Then, the bride retires and returns to the reception bedecked in as much of the gold as she can wear at one time. What a deal!
I love those weddings. They’re beautiful, aren’t they?
In the Persian culture, Gold is also the gift of choice for weddings, birthdays, and many other events…
Irangeles has over a million people of Iranian heritage, and they were my best customers.
Yes, it was wonderful, but exhausting. Two separate ceremonies. Lasted most of the day. Then a great reception, which lasted most of the night!
Great food too, I’ll bet if it was a real Vedic bash. I love that jewelry they wear at those weddings.
If they are really old (antiques) they might be worth more as vintage jewelry. Before you sell them as gold, I would take them to a jewelry store that specializes in antique jewelry.
Good advice.
If you’re stopping over in Dubai, that’s the place to sell gold. You get very close to the actual price.
Watch Jimbo roll his eyes in disdain about precious metals, last January…
http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/cnbc/jim_cramer_owes_eric_bolling_50000_74089.asp
Not by a longshot. The Fed will continue cutting and foreign dollar reserve holders will need something else to migrate their holdings to. It’ll be a basket of nondollar currencies, oil and precious metals.
Cramer:
Subprime is not a problem!!
I’m actually thinking about easing out of gold a bit, isn’t the saying something like “pigs get rich, hogs get slaughtered”?
Got a new tax assessment on Saturday….the idiots raised the assessment $150,000, almost $100,000 higher than similiar houses in the neighborhood are for sale as of today.
I am getting geared up for a fight. Wish me luck.
Sniggle,
What state?
And, regardless, I have an idea about assesments that should be applied to every single state out there. When you get your bill, as with the current system, you should have the right to a quick and reasonable appeals process. If that process does not bring you satisfaction, you should have the right, at the end of the appeals process, to sell the home to the tax assessors office at the appraised value.
If you think it’s worth 150K more, then YOU try and sell it, I don’t think it’s worth that, and I will take your money and run. Should lead to a consistent undervaluation of all properties for tax purposes, which, as long as it is applied uniformly, would be a good way to prevent abuses in the tax system and equalize the burden.
“Should lead to a consistent undervaluation of all properties for tax purposes,”
That’s the way it used to be in FLA, until the bubble. My old house used to appraise for about 25,000 grand under what it could have sold for. Now, when I occasionally look it up, they have it at about $40,000 over what we sold it for at the peak of the bubble. And since there’s no way the new owners could even get what they purchased it for, it is way overvalued for tax purposes. Complete desperation coming out of the tax assessor’s office.
I wonder when we’ll see bubble buyers trying to go after the folks they purchased from, claiming it’s the sellers’ fault they paid too much.
don’t forget there is the other side to the property tax equation.
assessed value times tax rate.
they will just raise the rate. what do you expect them to do? cut spending?
Wasnt there a story about 3 weeks ago from Florida to the effect that the average values assessers were using were inflated because of the massive number of fraudulent sales?
My house was revalued as if it were on a buildable lot of one acre. The house was built on the high side of the lot, and the other side flooded every time it rained (not often, in Utah) because the county had blocked the runoff area with a street with an undersized culvert, making that half of the acre unsuitable for any structures, including a studio I’d wanted to build. I contested their valuation, saying the lot was not as valuable as others in the area that you could build on. I lost. Eventually sold the house at a good profit, but the govt. isn’t often very receptive, at least not in that area. They created the problem, they expected me to pay for it.
If you “fixed” the stuck culvert with dynamite, they wouldn’t like that either.
This exact idea is used in India, in reverse. The problem is that when property is sold, it is often underinvoiced to lower the tax and registration fees (which tend to be somewhat on the higher side). The government actually has an agency that decides whether the invoiced price is too low, in which case it forcibly “buys” the property from the owner at the invoiced price (plus some small headache fee) and sells it on the market at usually a vastly higher sum.
I knocked about 45,000 off my assessment three years ago with an appeal - and, my jurisdiction actually dropped my assessment (and that of my neighborhood)a whopping 2% last year. I think I’m still over-assessed, but, the property taxes here (Alexandria, Va.) aren’t too bad (right around 1% annually). A lot of fun knocking off $500 annually in property taxes - it’s like getting a free mortgage payment every few years.
keep us posted- counties are going to fight like hel to keep the cash coming in- my county has a dept of wymens affiars and dredged a duck pond for 3 million
yes but you reside in the People’s Republik of DC, don’t you?
Try their website for appeal information. Some counties offer a free seminar (even a bargin for a small fee) on how to appeal your Property Taxes. I took one and it paid off. They had a pass out with procedures, doing your due diligence (evidence), and how the process works (i.e. your hearing).
If no appeal info is on their site, call them up. Its not something they want to flaunt.
Oh, and some counties require you to hire a special firm to handle it (can you say racket). There are ways around that too, sometimes.
I live in Jefferson County, WV.
I talked to the appriaser today, who was very nice and said that he could tag my appriasal for a closer look in the summer. I thanked him, but said I prefered to seek a solution sooner than wait until the taxes are due.
I will be appealing..have to go get the paperwork…appeals board is going to be meet on February 7th and February 14th.
I plan to gather information..homes for sale in the neighborhood, homes for sale in the county, neighbor assessments (for some unkown reason my house is appraised higher than neighboring houses that have more square footage), recent sales.
I will be loaded for bear. My goal is to knock atleast 70000 off the appraisal.
Just had my hearing with the county auditor. I purchased in Apr ‘07. I learned that what we’re arguing about is the Jan ‘07 value. In my case, the assessor was actually trying to argue that prices were falling fast- so that he could use a steep curve to extrapolate my purchase price back to a higher Jan ‘07 value. Come next year, I don’t expect they’ll be using this same (lack of) logic.
There’s a lot of that going around lately.
My friend just lost her appeal because 2 of her comparables weren’t recorded yet with the county. Even tho they were closed on two months ago.
Obviously, the most recent comparables are going to give you the lowest price. And these towns know it.
Washington Co/SoUtah. The house that I paid $350,000.00 for in 03 hovered around the $370,000-$380,000 market value number until 06 then it jumped to $590,000.00. Using comps that I got from a realtor friend along with tax info on my neighbors market value I was able to get it reduced to $510,000.00. In Nov 07 I showed up again and they dropped it to $460,000.00.
The way it works here is you sit across from the County assessor and work the numbers. In some cases (like mine) the assessor comes to your property before your meeting to do a visual inspection. Next to you sits an independent arbitrator that works as a referee. The first meeting in 06 took about 30 minutes (I was told that the market was hot and the area I lived in was nice so expect an increase in the next year). I took my discount and said that I disagreed.
The 07 meeting took all of 5 minutes and nobody disagreed when I said that we had a declining local housing market that was going to continue to slide (along with some numbers showing sales, prices, etc.). The assessor told me that his department expected to make reductions on the County home market values for 08 because of the home price drops that they were seeing.
The happiest people in the world pay some of the highest taxes in the world — between 50 percent and 70 percent of their incomes. In exchange, the government covers all health care and education, and spends more on children and the elderly than any country in the world per capita. With just 5.5 million people, the system is efficient, and people feel “tryghed” — the Danish word for “tucked in” — like a snug child.
Those high taxes have another effect. Since a banker can end up taking home as much money as an artist, people don’t chose careers based on income or status. “They have this thing called ‘Jante-lov,’ which essentially says, ‘You’re no better then anybody else,’” said Buettner. “A garbage man can live in a middle-class neighborhood and hold his head high.”
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=4086092
See ya, kckid. Sounds like slacker paradise.
Why people believe weird things about money
Surprisingly — stunningly, in fact — research shows that the majority of people [...] would rather make twice as much as others even if that meant earning half as much as they could otherwise have. How irrational is that?
People are basically interested in comparing themselves to their peer group. It’s like the psychological equivalent of high school. Am I in the top group or down towards the bottom? Am I the alpha monkey or the beta?
The rationale depends on the context.
If everyone else (meaning all others in your group, such as the USA) is making $250,000/yr and you are making $100,000/yr, then you are still the labor guy, i.e. the one cleaning the toilets and cutting the grass.
Using the same logic, if everyone else is making $25,000/yr and you are making $50,000/yr, you are THE MAN.
Questions like this require some context given when asked to make any sort of judgment about the person’s response.
Not everyone thinks the Danes are doing that well.
http://www.rense.com/general79/brave.htm
The perfect totalitarian state, is one where the all powerful political bosses, and their army of managers, control a population of slaves, who do not have to be coerced because they love their servitude”. This is from Aldous Huxleys nightmare novel `Brave New World`, and it describes Danes and Denmark almost to a tee.
Thanks for the post. Erie parallels.
When you put it that way, doesn’t it sound like a certain other country across the Atlantic from Denmark? Controlled through The Joys of Consumption?
(Just askin’.)
The same country that is having population crisis with young people saying “F!ck you, i’ not working as a slave for the rest of my life to provide for you?” Thanks, but i will pass.
And if not for immigrants the U.S. would face a declining population too.
Those Danes are a bigger threat to the American way of life than any terrorists.
Whaet we dagorum, in dagum yorum…
Lo we of the Spear Danes, in days of yore…
or something like that…
My Beowulf escapes me…they were called the “Spear Danes” in Old English.
“They have this thing called ‘Jante-lov,’ which essentially says, ‘You’re no better then anybody else,’” said Buettner.”
My husband was taught this by a Dad who was the recipient of a very expensive schooling and then a windfall inheritance. I was taught this concept by a Dad who ran the show in his industry and then went on to run his own business in a very blue collar business. (My point is this was a pretty consistent parenting concept at one point in our recent history)
The codicil was that every person was also expected to earn respect by doing their job to the very best of their availability. Some how we gotta get back to that. Basic operational management teaches that all parts of a system have to be working well and in sync not just the “most important” ones. The problem w/our system is we started to value only some parts of the system and act like others were insignificant. In my opinion, that was the beginning of the where we are today.
With just 5.5 million people, the system is efficient, and people feel “tryghed” — the Danish word for “tucked in” — like a snug child.
—————–
An all-encompasing, all-powerful central government that makes adults feel like “snug children”? Is this the socialist ideal?
Maybe that’s why mommy Hillary has the support she does “Just take away all these yucky personal decisions mommy, and tell me what to do!”
No thanks.
Seems like we have an all-encompasing, all-powerful central government that provides flimsy or substandard public services in an authoritarian, secretive and incompetent manner for only slightly less taxation load.
We’re not a particularly ‘free’ country anymore, and many US government agencies (INS, IRS, TSA, etc.) could take lessons from these countries on getting their job done competently while treating the population with respect, instead of the authoritarianism and security-state mentality they have now.
Denmark. Total hellhole. You’d hate it.
Please stay home.
Glasnost
Fed to Show New Openness On Outlook
By Sudeep Reddy and Greg Ip
Word Count: 1,216
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120028604808287999.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone
next thing will be a calendar. Mr. January, Mr. February, etc.?
Ha, ha!!
Good one.
Txxhick,
I know you are dieing to see big ben in a thong in the month of february.
I didn’t say it was a good idea
Or, they could show dog sh!t and call it BB. I really hate that mot**rf****er.
You bring to mind the centerfold in Jon Stewart’s book of the naked Supremes…
We need a massive amount of Perestroika.
Da!
To end up like the USSR?
I’ve read somewhere recently, maybe on nakedcapitalism.com, that the new policy of transparency by the Fed is actually hurting the bigger picture. What we have now is an open Fed, and a secretive market. We have the Fed that discloses its policy up to two years ahead, while the big market movers cover-up their problems until they can’t hide anymore. The open Fed did not make for open market players. The Fed forecasts themselves are not very accurate, but that’s the whole other issue.
Foreign influence begins to weigh on U.S. capital markets
China’s Government Could Hamper Citigroup’s Plans to Raise Capital
By Rick Carew
Word Count: 258 | Companies Featured in This Article: Citigroup
HONG KONG — Citigroup Inc.’s plans to raise capital by selling a stake of about $2 billion to China Development Bank could be in jeopardy because of opposition from China’s government, according to a person familiar with the situation.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120030610310488191.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Ha-ha. Can’t help but feel a little schadenfreude. Perhaps now American corporations will realize there might be a few pitfalls to offset the so-called glories of globalization. Could turn into a pissing match, though. Can you imagine the lobbyists putting the screws to our CONgress? “Hey, psst, you tell China to take this deal, or else the US won’t take their crappy goods”.
Citigroup shorts might get squeeze this morning - There was some news released after the bell on Friday with regards to the prince possibly buying another stake.
I guess he is protecting his ass ets? Isn’t he the largest shareholder in citi?
He’s holding a fairly large chunk.
Citigroup could write down $24 billion in mortgage- and credit-related losses, lay off 20,000 employees, and cut its dividend, according to a CNBC report. Citigroup is also seeking to sell a $15 billion stake to largely foreign investors. (MarketWatch) Citigroup will unveil its plans Tuesday, when it reports fourth-quarter earnings. (CNBC.com) This quarter’s earnings reports from Citi and other financial giants are expected to be especially murky and unreliable, as complex home-mortgage-based securities leave bankers and analysts unsure of the value of bank holdings. “There is going to be a lot of confusion and debate,” said Frederick Cannon at brokerage Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.
China received so much internal flak for its investment in Blackstone, that any investment in the US is viewed as exceptional risk and unacceptable.
The only items that China appears to be purchasing from us, at this point in time, are raw materials and food commodities.
Kuwait set to invest as Merrill seeks $4bn
By Henny Sender and Ben White in New York and Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington
Published: January 13 2008 19:29 | Last updated: January 13 2008 19:29
Merrill Lynch is seeking about $4bn in a second capital raising, as the hole in the US investment bank’s balance sheet continues to grow.
The Kuwait Investment Authority is expected to be a significant investor in the new deal, which could be announced as soon as midweek, according to people familiar with the matter. Other investors could come from Europe.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/00f57f02-c20b-11dc-8fba-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F00f57f02-c20b-11dc-8fba-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
CFC at it again…
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/14/countrywide-under-fire-on-fees/
Their TV ads are still running — brings to mind a chicken with its head chopped off running around the barn yard.
It’s all contained, nothing to see here.
http://tinyurl.com/ywasl7
“There are plenty of recession naysayers. Average hourly wages and salaries have not fallen, and some economists argue that unless — or until — that happens, consumer spending will hold up despite widespread economic unease. According to these economists, what happened in December was a temporary blip.”
Wait until the revised data comes in. The economy is getting harder and harder to measure, especially when it turns.
How do you measure the number and income of the self-employed? Schedule C for filers, isn’t it? And when is that due to be finalized? It’s all guesswork until then.
High End Credit Cards. This one has always befuddled me. My friend has about 400K in open credit lines on various cards.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120027115203487295.html
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/01/11/open-thread-law-firm-layoffs/?mod=homeblogmod_lawblog?mod=fpa_blogs
Did you notice this link on the side? Open blog thread-lawfirm layoffs.
Over the years American Express has seemed to bounce back and forth between not caring and urgently pleading with me to upgrade my Green card to Gold or (usually) Platinum. It’s normal for us to run more than $50k/yr on our green card(s) as we use it for about all that we can/run out household on it except for the few places that don’t take it. (We have almost a half million reward points in the last 7 years).
But they have never been able to make me understand why I should pay more for no additional services that we would actually use… A shinier card? Big farking whoop de doo..
It’s a bit scary. In my wallet wallet right now I have 3 credit cards (one of each: visa, mc, discover): total credit line = $85K. But we don’t use them. Most months have $0 activity. The lines are so high because of good credit history to start with, and periodic bumps which I assumed were designed to tempt us into using them more.
If We did not have the discipline we have, it would be so easy to be in debt to the CC companies for a decade or more.
Backstory: Early in my marriage (~’95) we made the switch to using Amex only because at the time, there was no option to pay of time and we needed to pay off some other CC debt (mostly from my failed business attempt). This made us treat the cards like cash. All the convenience of plastic (easier to to do things like travel), but all the mental stress of making sure the money will be there.
Tx: I still owe you an email.
How do you keep a Mastercard? The three banks I deal with all switched me to Visa over the years without my input. Now I find out that some airlines in the Philippines won’t take Visa, “temporarily”, due to excessive fraud.
Ladies and gentlemen, start your prediction engines. The Chicago Spire sales center opens today.
In case you have forgotten, this is the 2000 ft tall twisting condo tower planned for Chicago. 150 floors. The construction site has been running at full speed for a few months now, they aren’t wasting any time at all.
I’ve heard rumors that the $40,000,000 penthouse was sold to an American last week.
Hold me back, I can hardly wait.
I don’t a spire to own no twisty condo.
THere have been two developers so far… How many times will this project change hands before completion? Before all units are sold? I’m guessing there will be multiple bankruptcies on this one and it will take almost a decade to finish.
Does the buyer of the penthouse get free Dramamine for life? I imagine those top floors would sway pretty bad in the Windy City.
Did it include Pets?
Just sock puppets
Only an American would be stupid enough to spend $40MM for a condo that requires an hour plus elevator ride.
“Thank you no, I’ll keep my co-op on East LSD overlooking the beauties on Oak St Beach.” The foreign investor opined.
My prediction? Sells out in a month.
Brian,
What do you think of 50 East Chestnut? I think the 25th floor is going for $3.5 mil.
Amazing to me that the top of the spire was sold to an American - who?
And the Chicago condo market just Jumped the Shark.
That there is a flipper hoping to get 50 mil in a year.
My sense is, with a little bumping around the bottom here or a few fake outs, we’re getting ready to have to endure an unbelieveably annoying rally in which every negative will be deemed to have been priced in and handled.
As long as the MER & C writedowns to be announced this week don’t go into triple digit billions.
Some people are saying the BAC-CFC marriage may be the result of an imminent massive mark to market moment with these two as mutual counterparties….
Watched a couple minutes of Crammer Friday night. He declared that we’re at the point that bad news is good news. All bad news is priced in, and more of it just means the Fed cuts will be larger.
I think it is quite possible. This should be the last big squeeze /false rally for the year before the bear gets angry and we see a big slide. I am putting in a few long positions to capture some of this then planning on shorting the hell out of the market!! I think the peak is going to be late Feb to early March then it will all down hill until at least the 4th quarter.
Anyone see the CNC feature this morning on the Detroit Auto Show where they were commenting on 100 steer and showing footage of steer mounting steer?
They were speechless as they repeated the footage multiple times.
I wish the irony would settle on them that they comment on the same every day this year: Bull market participants. Bulls mounting Bulls… except now those bulls are all steer.
// Steer = castrated Bull.
and speaking of a public humping. Whaddya say, Stucco?
http://www.thestreet.com/s/clinton-outlines-plan-to-jump-start-economy/markets/marketfeatures/10398396.html?
TXCHIC:
How about we send 10 million of us unemployed gringos back to school full-time for 6 months…the gov. pays us say $4-500 wk so we can all learn Spanish.
Then there would be no need to hire any illegals and we can file for discrimination if they turn away a Bi Lingual Legal Americans for the job. And the employer can be fined or lose his business. That would stimulate jobs for us Real Americans.
okay, but I don’t want a job
Home Depot and Lowes both had rating agency Stop Upgrades today! Buy Buy, the bottom is past!!
I’ve noticed around here, that Lowe’s, Home Depot, and Menard’s are just not re-stocking some of their inventory. Slowly emptying out.
I don’t know if this was posted somewhere in yesterday’s threads, but in case you haven’t seen it another truly awful column from Ben Stein. He suggests the Fed purchase stock in banks. For some reason he thinks this will allay fears about insolvency. Do the editors of the Times even read this crap before they print it?
http://tinyurl.com/3b5jp4
“Ben Stein is a lawyer, writer, actor and economist.”
Jack of all trades, master of none.
Ben Stein is one of those annoying types, that are perfectly OK with capitalism for the masses and socialism for the elites. Also, perfectly OK with “lower taxes” and waging a hundred wars around the world at the same time. Neil Boortz is another one.
How can these people live with themselves?
You forgot speech writer for Nixon.
another dubious achievement…
Is it my imagination, but did the market just have an up/down swing of 250 points?
I didn’t see anything…
“With $24 you can buy them lunch or a new home”
How Manhattan of them?
Obama’s 120 billion dollar stimulus package. Who’s next? Do I hear 150 billion?
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/14/obama_unveils_120_billion_plan_to_fuel_economy_stem_foreclosures/
I sense an ARMs race between BO and HC to see who can promise the most massive fiscal stimulus package possible to pursue a futile effort to slam shut the barn door long after the horses ran away. The scary thing is that there is a good chance one of them will win the next election, and feel pressure to follow through on campaign promises.
You might be right, but I’m getting weird vibes from Edwards, just sitting pretty in third place and therefore spared the bruising task of a front attack against his rivals since BO and HC have no other option but to take the gloves off and go at each other to see who lands the most lethal blow. It will be a sight to behold, and I’m not counting Edwards out as of yet…
Excerpt from a California mortage broker insider:
The 3/1, 5/1, 7/1 and 10/1 hybrid interest-only ARMS will reset in droves beginning now. These are loans that are fixed at a low introductory interest only rate for three, five, seven or 10 years — then turn into a fully indexed payment rate that adjusts annually thereafter. They first got really popular in 2003. Wells Fargo led the pack in these but many people have them. The resets first began with the 3/1 last year.
The 5/1 was the most popular by far, so those start to reset heavily in 2008. These were considered ‘prime’ but Wells and many others would do 95%-100% to $1 million at a 620 score with nearly as low of a rate as if you had a 750 score. No income or asset versions of this loan were available at a negligible bump in fee. This does not sound too ‘prime’ to me. These loans were mostly Jumbo in higher priced states such as California.
Values are down and these are interest only loans, therefore, many are severely underwater even without negative-amortization on this loan type. They were qualified at a 50% debt-to-income ratio, leaving only 50% of a borrower’s income to pay taxes, all other bills and live their lives. These loans put the borrower in the grave the day they signed their loan docs especially without major appreciation. These loans will not perform as poorly overall as sub-prime, seconds or Option ARMs but they are a perfect example of what is still considered ‘prime’ that is at risk. Eighty-eight percent of Thornburg’s portfolio is this very loan type for example.
One final thought. How can any of this get repaired unless home values stabilize? And how will that happen? In Northern California, a household income of $90,000 per year could legitimately pay the minimum monthly payment on an Option ARM on a million home for the past several years. Most Option ARMs allowed zero to 5% down. Therefore, given the average income of the Bay Area, most families could buy that million dollar home. A home seller had a vast pool of available buyers.
Now, with all the exotic programs gone, a household income of $175,000 is needed to buy that same home, which is about 10% of the Bay Area households. And, inventories are up 500%. So, in a nutshell we have 90% fewer qualified buyers for five-times the number of homes. To get housing moving again in Northern California, either all the exotic programs must come back, everyone must get a 100% raise or home prices have to fall 50%. None, except the last sound remotely possible.
$175,000/year to buy a $1million home? Hardly! Assuming 20% down ($200k), a family would need $270k/year income to afford such a home.
I’m hoping the market recovers enough so that I can buy some new puts in Wells Fargo again. I made out on the last batch, even though I bailed early. I wouldn’t mind a repeat attempt to make bug money instead of decent money. Hmmmm… how much exposure does WFC get from this stuff as a percentage of its business? Maybe those puts aren’t actually overpriced at all right now.
Syracuse RE web site visitors keep posting that this market didn’t dive into these products anything like what was experienced on the coasts.
I do agree our median home costs/income ratios are a lot less nutty and so the locals didn’t need to go risky to get into a home, but would anyone have a link to national ARM or IO heat maps? I’d like to find out once and for all how risky things got in a less heated market.
HoustonBug - A friend of mine in SoCal just foreclosed because of resets. He makes $150,000/year with a $560,000 house (2005). The house is worth just under $500k now.
He makes $150,000 a year and can’t afford the reset? 450,000 would be three times income and 560,000 isn’t that far off (in todays world). Either he is leveraged up to his eyeballs with toys, or he has a low credit score or even maybe he doesn’t really make $150,000. A person who makes that income should have the extra resources to cover. The key term SHOULD. I obviously don’t know his situation but those numbers aren’t that far out of the box that he should be defaulting.
You called it.
Toys. Lots of them.
I just bought my first house for $38,000 less than it was built for in 2004 in fort myers. My price per sq ft is $30 less than everyone in the neighborhood. I think I got a good deal. Please discuss. Its a 4-3.5 and i plan on living in it for a good 5 yrs. Do you think its smart to put more money down or hold onto my cash? All i owe is a house payment now…
You need to provide more information. $38k less than 2004 prices doesn’t mean anything, nor does $30 less per square foot.
What would it cost to rent this place? Multiply by 120 and you have a good first cut estimate of a reasonable purchase price. We could get more complicated, but it won’t differ greatly from this estimate. When the market hits bottom your house will probably be worth less than 100 x rent due as prices overshoot on the down side.
Please discuss? Can’t discuss much with what little info you gave.Put more money down? Who knows! You didn’t even give us any mortgage details.
More fun with CDOs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120027155742887331.html?mod=fpa_whatsnews
Stimulators = gent’s club in Lake Webster, Indiana.
Credit Card Time Bomb is Ticking Away
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AXP-C-cof/index/a/15518
Follow the link to the author’s comments on Will County Illinois. We covered Will Co. yesterday and this article reinforces everything.
Check out the dude whose unused home ($579,000) has sat for 600 days!!! He thinks unencumbered renters will ride to his rescue - soon too! The might - only not so soon and not anywhere near his price point.
Kass is telling everyone to buy the financials. Credit cards will be the other shoe to drop.
http://tinyurl.com/3bc5w4
He’s a good analyst but I’ve found that he is very early and tends to be wrong for awhile before he’s right (i.e., fadeable).
This comment though underpins my belief that there’s gonna be a feel good rally coming very shortly. It makes me sick but I have to eat so I’m long as of last Thursday and Friday.
The seized-up credit markets will not be a permanent condition. Indeed, improving Libor and TED spreads (recently ignored by the marketplace) are seemingly presaging a more normal credit market. Historically, this has been constructive for the financial sector.
Bought some intc this morning.
Just shorted ntwk.
I haven’t heard this discussed here. Has there been a poker bubble?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aZn7RsvBbG_Q&refer=home
“When watching ‘High Stakes Poker’ or the World Series of Poker on television it’s easy to assume that all these people with mountains of chips in front of them are millionaires and living the American poker dream. The sad reality is that a reasonable number of them are broke or, even worse, deep in debt to their fellow players, banks and loan sharks. “
Cadillacs, Cigars and Poker…
This trio used to be exclusive territory for smelly old men, and somehow was transformed into cool.
I watched one poker tourney on tv, and the 20-something winner proudly boasted that he’d never read a book, ever.
Somewhat. There’s been a big expansion over the last few years due to online poker. If you’re disciplined, and know how to play it can be a good source of regular income.
The flip side, is that you’re engaging in an activity that can result in a very nasty addiction. So at the top level you have a significant chunk of players, who are actually pretty good at poker, but have also picked up a gambling addiction along the way, which as the article says, can get very messy. The serious money in online poker is the $1-$3 per hand the sites charge the players as a rake, not what a good player can skim off the bad ones.
I must admit, i’m curious to see how the insolvency crisis hits online player numbers, but so far there hasn’t been anything noticeable.
Well if shopaholicism and the debt frezy wasn’t bad enough, we also have had a gambling boom in this country. Lots of money blown with near zero effect on long term prosperity or even short term happiness.
I have only set foot inside a casino twice, most recently at a 90th birthday party. Put a dollar into a one-armed bandit for the hell of it, and won. Instead of money coming out it was chips — my Dad had to tell me what to do with them. I cashed them immediately. And if I never go into another casino again, which is likely, I beat the bastards for $100 lifetime.
I have only set foot inside a casino twice, most recently at a 90th birthday party.
!!!
I hope the birthday person had a good time.
I’ve only been in a casino once myself. Lost $20 and stopped. I found it kind of dull. (And smoky, at the time.)
I’m wondering how a downturn will impact sports books. I’ve gambled on sports a few times, and can at least comprehend the allure of that.
But slots just seem … boring.
I was up our trip to Las Vegas, until our plane was late leaving. Damn ding ding ding in the airport made me want to fight back.
The only casino I’ve been in was eating breakfast in one in Butte, Montana. It was pretty unsettling to me to see the obvious mysery and addiction. Those things are a blight on Montana and everywhere else that has them. I do gamble, but only away from the freeway exits where I know the bears hang out, then I’ll go 90mph.
On second thought, maybe the misery and addiction was because it was in Butte, not from the casino…LOL
I forget who said it. Misraki maybe?
He’d just won $1 million. Reporter asked what he intended to do with the money.
“Pay down some debt”.
What about the rest?
“They’ll have to wait for my next big win.”
2 years ago, one of the top pros, Mike the Mouth Madasou went to jail. He was drug trafficing trying to get together the buy in for another tournament.
Was there a poker bubble? Heck yeah. Poker exploded after Chris Money Maker won the WSP 4 years ago. It is said that an amature winning the big one proved anyone could do it, and that ignighted the poker fire.
Odd, the fire being ignighted matches almost perfectly with the housing bubble ignition in 2002-2003.
If you make $50K a year, are you going to spend 1/4th of a year’s income to lose a poker tournement? Oh, but if your house went up $100K last year…. well, throwing away $10K on poker is much more manageable.
“If you make $50K a year, are you going to spend 1/4th of a year’s income to lose a poker tournement? Oh, but if your house went up $100K last year…. well, throwing away $10K on poker is much more manageable. ”
We’ve talked about HELOCs for boats, Hummers, cruises and plasma screens. How many people HELOCed for gambling debts?
I’ll bet the gambling industry has expanded more than autos, travel or consumer electronics. It has exploded. And with credit tightening and falling home values, casino revenues are now off in much of the country, excluding Vegas.
This is something to talk about IMHO. Gambling may be doing to White suburbanites what crack did to Black city dwellers. And it’s legal as long as the government gets its cut.
A year ago we stayed overnight at the Rio, in Vegas…
I played some early morning poker pai gow for $5 a hand and was the only player playing, and the pit boss and I started talking about gambling, and he told me how amazed he was at the amount of kids barely in the 20’s, that walked up to blackjack or craps table and bought in for $5-10k, nowadays…
That money had to come from somewhere, and Helocs seem to have been that place, now that the revenues are slipping dramatically @ all casinos.
I can believe it. Imho the real story is where all the money for the online sportsbooks is coming from. Poker is a very, very small fraction of that.
I have an opportunity to enter the Death Star tonight. There’s a public meeting (about a road widening) that’s being held at the Tucson Association of Realtors (TM) HQ. I’ll give you an inside report — including any REIC lit that I can swipe — tomorrow.
As I drove past the recently built, super big, Harley-Davidson dealer this morning I saw a sign that said they are offering a free vacation with the purchase of a new Harley.
I thought Harleys were supposed to sell themselves, and that there was no shortage of well off guys and gals who could plunk down 20K+ for one of those weekend toys. Silly me.
When you can buy a more reliable rice burner for 1/2 as much, and they aren’t selling all that well, you have to wonder if the thrill is gone?
I’m sure the “thrill” (of thinking they looked cool on a Harley) is still there. Its those pesky empty pocket books that are a problem. Or even just having to buy the Harley with conventional financing (as opposed to a HELOC) is probably giving enough people incentive to say: “I don’t really need it and can’t really afford it anyway”.
The Thrill Is Gone
B. B. King
Lead
1. The thrill is gone, the thrill is gone away,
The thrill is gone, the thrill is gone away,
You know you done me wrong,
And you’re gonna be sorry some day,
2. The thrill is gone, it’s gone away from me,
The thrill is gone, it’s gone away from me,
I know I’ll still go on,
Some way,
Lead
3. The thrill is gone, the thrill is gone for good,
The thrill is gone, the thrill is gone for good,
And someday I’ll be over you,
Just like a good man should,
4. I’m free, free, free, I’m free from your spell,
I’m free, free, free, I’m free from your spell,
And now that it’s all over, baby,
All I can do is wish you well,
Lead & out
The thrill is gone
When you can buy a more reliable rice burner for 1/2 as much, and they aren’t selling all that well, you have to wonder if the thrill is gone?
They should be selling them as SUV replacements for those who cannot afford the gas. How about this — buy a Harley, and we’ll dispose of that SUV or pickup for you?
A few months ago, I was talking with a police officer who said that he’s been seeing more motorcycle wrecks than in years past. Wonder if this is due to the big crop of newbie riders out there.
The Harley Dealer I mentioned above sponsors an event in tbe Fall, “Thunder in the Rockies” or something like that. Last time they had it there was a major spurt in fatal accidents here. 3 or 4 during the event, IIRC.
Saw the portion of the event in Summit County. Wild man, wild.
The one I was talking about is held in the Loveland/Ft. Collins area.
In Socal it certainly is. Young military have been buying bikes for the last few years. They come back from war and think they are bulletproof only to kill themselves on a crotch rocket. It is sad we lose more Marines to motorcycle deaths then we do combat now. We force proper protection, make them attend basic riders courses and and offer advanced riders courses. We take them on structured rides up windy roads to show proper technique and proper speeds but it does not matter. The only thing that slows them down is when a buddy dies. Then the next batch gets back from war and the process repeats. They say they buy motorcycles to save on gas. They can’t afford to live close to base due to high cost of living in Socal. It is not cool to live on base.
Apparently the “Car Culture” is on the way out:
http://tinyurl.com/3×7lr9
I guess globalization isn’t working out the way they had hoped. Instead of the huddled masses of the 3rd world buying SUVs, it appears that we 1st worlders will be imitating them.
Ah, that link takes me to a Google search for the Calgary Flames.
I must have copied the wrong one.
http://tinyurl.com/2×3pkh
Good thing Colorado wasn’t looking at porn.
The second link takes me to a porn site featuring Tan Man and Lereah.
Damn, you beat me to it Chad!
Second link says story expired…
Tiny URL must be broken. Here is the actual URL
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/14/news/companies/taylor_detroit_nissan_future.fortune/index.htm
Swiss franc is now below 1.10 to the dollar for the first time this cycle. But don’t worry — U.S. share prices are headed up, so it’s all good.
Long term T-bond yields = down and downer
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=TYX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=1&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=tnx&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
Long term T-bond yields = stock market undertow. Beware the undertow, naked swimmers!
By all means, stay focused on the rebounding U.S. stock market, and ignore all other asset classes. So far, the Fed’s new glasnost policy is working out very well for gold bugs!
Gold passes $900 on dollar weakness
By Neil Dennis
Published: January 14 2008 09:13 | Last updated: January 14 2008 11:34
Gold surged to a record above $900 an ounce on Monday as expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts pushed the dollar lower.
By mid morning in London, spot gold hit a record $914 a troy ounce, up 1.8 per cent from Friday’s close.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f51c6cec-c280-11dc-801e-0000779fd2ac.html
Some bubble stalwarts are decorrelating from the headline U.S. stock market indexes. Got fundamentals?
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=tol+kbh+len+ctx+dhi+fnm+aapl+goog+bzh+phm+sbux+peet
Are Emerging Markets Free of US Credit Crunch?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/credit-india-china-economy/index/a/15519
If the US calculated unemployment in the same manner as most of Europe, the US unemployment rate would be over 13%.
“..Using McKinsey’s approach and unofficial definitions of the “unemployed,” CEPR’s report calculated that the U.S. unemployment rate for the same year would be 13.8 percent (more than double the official rate of 5.5 percent). If the U.S. prison and jail populations are also included, something that McKinsey did not do in their original study of Sweden, the U.S. unemployment rate would rise to 15.2 percent. ..”
June 2007
CEPR
HTML
http://tinyurl.com/34bql2
Real unemployment is high all across the industrialized west.
Question: I can’t borrow or move anything out of my 401k but I’m all in the cash fund now. I tried to find out what was in it (Franklin Cash Reserves) and there seems to be some “commercial paper.” Uh, what could that be exactly? Any cause for concern there?
Not to be paranoid or anything.
Get a copy of the prospectus - you will find a list of everything they held as of the prospectus date. These are usually available online form the fund company’s web site.
I always pays to be informed. Not sure how Franklin invests. Does your 401K offer a T-Bill type of fund?
Nope, or I’d be in it. Lousy choices, and they raised fees this year too. After praying for years that my 2-bit company would get one, I’ve been praying they’d get rid of it (as they threatened to do a year ago). But it is easier to save the same amount before-tax than after.
Commercial paper is corporate bonds. The riskiness depends on the rating and sector…
https://www.ftinstitutional.com/inst/pdf/products/prospectus/Franklin_Cash_Reserves_Fund_Prospectus.pdf
This doesn’t look good.
“At any time, the Fund may have a significant portion of its investments in asset-backed commercial paper.”
Oh, good work sekor, thanks. For some reason I couldn’t find it..oh boy…
Economic outlook: Bernanke has to testify from a shaky platform
By Chris Flood
Published: January 13 2008 21:36 | Last updated: January 13 2008 21:36
Mounting inflationary pressures and the deteriorating outlook for consumer spending will dominate this week’s data releases and provide an uncomfortable backdrop for Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress on Thursday. The chairman of the US Federal Reserve has said “additional substantive action” can be taken by policymakers to support growth but that is unlikely to alleviate fears of a US recession.
In the UK, output producer prices are rising at the fastest rate for almost 17 years and, with oil close to $100, further upward pressure appears likely. The consensus forecast for December’s output producer price index is for an increase from 4.5 per cent year on year in November to 4.7 per cent. Headline consumer price inflation for December, due tomorrow, is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1 per cent. Substantial increases in gas and electricity charges will push inflation higher in 2008.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c32c49ec-c06d-11dc-b0b7-0000779fd2ac.html
Spain feels the credit squeeze pain
Published: January 13 2008 19:46 | Last updated: January 13 2008 19:46
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister, boasts that his country is wealthier than Italy. Overtaking France, he declares, is now a national goal. In the middle of a bitter election campaign, patriotic triumphalism is understandable. But Mr Zapatero could come to regret remarks that also appear hubristic. After three transforming decades, in which the Spanish economy has become a star European performer, it may be about to suffer the consequences of a credit-fuelled spending and property boom.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/00f68952-c20f-11dc-8fba-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F00f68952-c20f-11dc-8fba-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Sears warns on fourth quarter
New York – Sears Holdings said on Monday that US same-store sales had fallen 3.5 per cent in the key holiday period and would hurt fourth-quarter results, sending its shares down 12 per cent in pre-market trading.
A lower gross margin rate in the nine-week holiday period that ended on January 5 would will also weigh on quarterly results, Sears said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/79e0b510-c2a3-11dc-801e-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F79e0b510-c2a3-11dc-801e-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fus
Marketwatch.com has a graph showing NASDAQ up and numbers showing NASDAQ down. Me confused! (But I love when this kind of thing happens…)
Nasdaq Composite Index. NASDAQ (NASDAQ GM) Delayed Quote Data
Make a prediction for COMP
Where will COMP close
2,439.94
Change:-48.58 -1.95%
Volume:2,186,192,806
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/nasdaq
That big drop in the NASDAQ indicated by the red numbers against the backdrop of a chart showing higher NASDAQ brings to mind the scene from Macbeth where Banquo’s ghost rises above the dinner table…
CNBC
Citigroup May Write Down As Much As $24 Billion
Monday January 14, 8:19 am ET
Citigroup could write down as much as $24 billion due to subprime and credit-related losses, CNBC has learned. In addition, the company could lay off as many as 20,000 workers as part of a comprehensive plan to slash costs and raise capital.
Atrociti, isn’t it?
Sounds like the time is ripe for another infusion of foreign moneys…
Sears Holdings sees big profit shortfall
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:14 a.m. EST Jan. 14, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sears-falls-multi-year-low-profit/story.aspx?guid=%7B1A0E0C6B%2DF082%2D4F12%2DA298%2D55CEC8D5F800%7D
You didn’t have to be a seer to see it coming…
Helicopter drops seem to be working…
As gold traders eye $1,000, inflation stirs the pot
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last update: 5:32 p.m. EST Jan. 11, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Global inflation, stock volatility, the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday — you name it, there’s a reason out there for gold’s rapid rise and the likelihood it will hit a new eyeball-popping level of $1,000 an ounce.
When they’re all taken together, however, the big lure to gold continues to be its tendency to hold value when the rest of the investment picture turns septic. As it’s done of late, with U.S. inflation measures hitting multi-decade highs, U.S. stocks starting off the year with their biggest drop in 30 years and the global outlook looking both inflationary and at risk of a slowdown.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/golds-next-hurdle-1000-puts/story.aspx?guid=%7B89C447C7%2D51B3%2D4EA3%2D9611%2D2C89AF5F48E7%7D
The beauty of mellow yellow amongst it’s many virtues, is…
It’s the only financial instrument to benefit from fraud.
A lot of OUR Gold (ex-Ft Knox, Goldfinger would’ve loved this heist) was leased out to the financial majordomos, who sold it, to perpetuate the charade that was our economy, and they have to pay it back.
And i’m sure they’ll be good for it…
Good point. The money is flowing, but only if you have great credit. The 20% marginal businesses are under pressure. If you can borrow moneys in the US, buy commodities and then sell these commodities to the Asia market; you can make a lot of change.
On the negative side or why this may be the beginning of a global slowdown: The Baltic Dry Shipping Index dropped ~5% last Thursday and is now down 28% from its Nov peak. The index has a fairly good correlation to future commodity prices, generally leading the commodity markets.
BDI
http://tinyurl.com/jkkag
Investmenttools
baltic dry is different from frozen chicken….
ya see,plastic crap aint got no value, dont matter where it comes from.
How to Survive in an Artificially Maintained Market
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-PFE-bac-ms-JNJ/index/a/15526
Bottom-caller’s brigade tries yet again to call a near-term bottom:
Mortgage originations expected to fall in 2008
Median home prices to decline; home sales to hit bottom in third quarter: MBA
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:32 p.m. EST Jan. 14, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-originations-median-home-prices/story.aspx?guid=%7B0E0E730C%2DAD8A%2D4102%2DABE4%2D8ED67B363A80%7D&dist=hplatest
Never mind the recent evidence that housing market values are declining at double-digit rates in many areas formerly referred to as a bit frothy.
Meanwhile, median home prices for new and existing homes should decline this year, with nominal median prices falling 2%. Prices are expected to increase between 1% and 2% in 2009.
I just want to let you guys know that I’ve taken to editing Wikipedia pages written about neighborhoods that I know. I keep noticing that they all mention the high house prices, and attributing them to such nonsense as good schoools, nice lawns, etc. I’m going around deleting said references and replacing them with such statements as “due to the most heinous housing bubble in the history of the United States, the median household income in Mission San Jose reached $869,000 in 2006″.
I think you guys should all do it too.
“median household income” or “median home price”?
Oops. I meant to say median home price. If that were the household income, the prices here would be cheap!
That’s hilarious dude - I just read your change. Just tucked in there nice and neat amongst all the other info. Great edit! I may do the same for my municipality….
“In quiet places, reason abounds.”
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
There’s a lot of reason where I’m at.
“Home” is a bit of a stretch.
http://rockies.craigslist.org/rfs/538759900.html
A little late, here’s the latest numbers from Missoula, which - surprise - is just like everywhere else.
Hubby and I went our separate ways yesterday, and I looky-looed in one place not knowing was doing the same thing somewhere else. He said the Realtor demanded he write his name, address etc down and he said no, and she said that’s our policy, and he said I don’t care, and she kept it up so he walked out. Lots of much-touted 300k+ spec houses on tiny lots, which were supposed to be “affordable” supposedly but that just meant the lots were small.
300k+ is too much here, family median is 54k per HUD and I think really lower than that.
“Lots of much-touted 300k+ spec houses on tiny lots, which were supposed to be “affordable” supposedly but that just meant the lots were small.”
300k+ houses were eminently affordable when money was free and prices were rising a K or 2 a week, even on a 54k income.
Sellers and agents still don’t seem to get that it’s a paradigm shift, not a slowdown. There ain’t no such thing as a generic spec house on a tiny lot no mo’ - cry yourself a nice river and then either bulldoze ‘em or sell ‘em for scrap.
I always write down a fake name at open houses - something like “Hugh G. Rection” - and put some random realtor’s phone number. Deep down, I bet they think it’s funny.
Something completely off-topic yet sorta kinda relevant, for those of you who may be webcomic fans:
The nightmares of a FB?
(Apologies if this has already been posted. I tried to do due diligence by searching the past two Bits Buckets.)
“If you strip out results from big banks, earnings will actually increase in the fourth quarter. But if the economy enters a recession, profits may not hold up in 2008.”
money.cnn.com
BWAHAHAHAHAHA
buckle the F*CK UP!
if you aint a dollar bull, you are an absolute fanatic.
double gold, go long blackwater, if your long oil get longer, get the food stored and the garden in, spring is just around the corner….
TAF is shoving money down banks throats, all they can drink…..think water passing over a damn….
How can you go wrong buying gold now? It appears headed to infinity and beyond…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=GC08G&sid=2275790
I have very strange feeling regarding whats about to happen with inflation…
ya see, most people I know are all about digital currency, while the emerging market is all about paper…..why be a dollar bull? When the digital is more powerful than the real paper. M1 is still shrinking. M3 appeared parabolic, but significant contractions in credit across the spectrum….hmmmm, dangerously strong for the dollar. deflation in the price of desires appears to manifest across a broad spectrum of “real assets”…is gold a real asset or a thing that can be converted to a medium of exchange for an asset?
oh jeez,…I almost got caught up in what stuff costs for a dollar.
Stopped-clock dollar savers take heart… eventually history’s pendulum will inevitably swing your direction.
MARK HULBERT
How bad is inflation, really?
Commentary: The bond market is not betting that inflation will get worse
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:01 p.m. EST Jan. 14, 2008
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Inflation has heated up considerably in recent months, and is about to get even worse.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/contrarian-take-inflation-risks/story.aspx?guid=%7BB92D788C%2D09AE%2D46DC%2DBA10%2DF3BBE3AF23AD%7D
ASIA MARKETS
Tokyo, Hong Kong stocks lead Asian retreat
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:29 a.m. EST Jan. 15, 2008
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Asian markets turned lower Tuesday, succumbing to intraday volatility, with Japanese shares extending their fall as the yen’s strength hurt exporters such as Honda Motor Co. Hong Kong stocks were dragged down by early afternoon selling in heavyweights such as HSBC Holdings and China Mobile.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tokyo-hong-kong-stocks-lead/story.aspx?guid=%7BDF3B418F%2DEF47%2D430B%2D8986%2D9AA5536767B1%7D
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