The Free Ride Is Over
The Sierra Vista Herald reports from Arizona. “Despite the perception of the current real estate market, a decade into the future, people will look back and kick themselves for not buying a home this year. So says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, speaking at the Tucson Association of Realtors’ 2008 Forecast seminar. ‘This is a great market to buy in and a great time to buy,’ Yun said. ‘There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media.’”
“The audience of about 325 real estate agents, brokers, developers and builders gave a loud cheer and applause.”
“‘It is a fact that (2007) is the first time home appreciation was negative since the Great Depression,’ he said. ‘But considering in Tucson over this boom we saw 50 percent appreciation, then no growth in 2006 and what we figure to be about 2 percent depreciation of values in 2007, it is like taking 50 steps forward and two steps back for most homeowners. Those who bought in the last year or two didn’t fare as well.”
“Yun said there was no way that growth of that size was going to be sustainable for longer than it did.”
“‘We need to get rid of the excess,’ he said. ‘But when reports come out that the Fed might cut rates in January, and then more in March and maybe in May too, people are going to wait and wait to buy. We are fulfilling our own prophesy.’”
“Realtors just have to get back to work, said Tucson Association of Realtors President Tom Sloyan. ‘We are not in a down year,’ he said. ‘We are in a normal year and just have to get back to work. The free ride is over.’”
The Arizona Daily Star. “December proved to be 2007’s slowest month for real estate sales, according to figures released today by the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS. For the year, sales totaled 12,109, down about 18 percent from 2006.”
“The number of active listings in December, 8,708, was up slightly from the same month a year ago.”
From KVOA News 4. “You’ve probably seen the ‘For Sale’ signs in front yard for months on end as homeowners lower their prices. That has been the real estate story here in Tucson for the past year.”
“Jeff Reed has watched the Tucson housing market go through different phases. ‘Basically for the past 15 years, I’ve been buying, fixing, and reselling homes in Tucson.’ Reed says these days, ‘It’s just been really slow trying to get a house closed. They’re just no showings. I’ve got a house for sale in Green Valley and I’m lucky if I get one person to go through it a month.’”
The Arizona Republic. “The Valley’s overall housing market ended 2007 listlessly, and the Southeast Valley wasn’t any spunkier.”
“Chandler and Tempe held up best, both seeing their median home price decline 3 percent. Gilbert and Ahwatukee fared worst among major Southeast Valley communities, both seeing a decline of about 10 percent. Mesa took the biggest dip in the number of homes sold, 26 percent fewer in 2007 than 2006.”
“‘There’s a feeling that the market hasn’t bottomed,” said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University. ‘It’s sort of the prom date (dilemma): ‘I’ll wait to say yes and maybe I’ll get a better looking girl down the line.’ But you usually don’t.’”
“Last month was the weakest for sales in nearly a decade. Valley-wide, 3,290 homes were sold compared with 4,620 in December 2006 and 3,240 in December 1999.”
“Butler predicted sales volumes and prices will continue to fall in 2008 but stabilize in 2009. ‘People are always asking me when the market is going to recover,’ he said. ‘The question I ask them is, ‘What do you mean by recover?’”
“Investors drove the Valley real estate market to record levels in 2005. Many believe the housing bubble was bound to burst and return to a more normal and sustainable level.”
“‘Really, the market, if it were following its historical norm, would be in the low 70,000 (resale homes sold a year) instead of being driven by investors looking for their fortune and people getting caught up in the hypermarket,’ Butler said.”
“The median price of an existing metro-Phoenix home tumbled to $232,000 in December, an 11 percent drop from where prices were at the beginning of 2007.”
“December’s median home price was the lowest since the spring of 2005. At the time, the speculator-driven housing boom was in full swing and so were bidding wars on Valley homes.”
“Experts from the many other parts of the market besides housing convened last week at the Institute of Real Estate Management/Certified Commercial Investment Member economic forecast for Phoenix.”
“‘The mood about all of the market is cautious and guarded,’ said Stanley Paul Cook, the keynote speaker. ‘Vacancies across the board from office to apartments are going to rise this year, and sales prices on all those properties are bound to head down.’”
The Arizona Daily Sun. “Despite a claim against it for $1.8 million in unpaid bills, one of Flagstaff’s biggest developments expects to begin building its first homes in March. That’s according to Clem Stubstad, a spokesman for Presidio in the Pines, which has city approval for 900 housing units…in west Flagstaff.”
“He said a slump in the housing market led to ‘a cash flow hiccup’ that brought construction to a standstill. The planned groundbreaking had been scheduled for 18 months ago.”
“But a former contractor, A. Miner Contracting, has brought a $1.8 million lawsuit against the primary developers of the project, Premiere Acquisitions LLC and Luxury Lofts LLC, saying it has not been paid in full.”
“He said he was paid about $600,000 for some of the initial work, but he canceled the contract last August after working for months without payment.”
“‘As the months went on, I realized I wasn’t getting paid,’ he said. ‘We have been going through so many months of ‘We’re going to have the money on Friday.’”
“Another Presidio-related lawsuit filed in 2005 is still active. A total of 22 people who bought into Presidio in the Pines filed a lawsuit against the builder, claiming the builder was reneging on their contracts and purchase prices.”
The News Herald from Arizona. “The ailing housing market ended a painful year with a modest increase in building activity. (Lake Havasu City) issued six single-family building permits in December, the latest in a string of single-digit monthly totals that became commonplace in the just-ended year. The total was up compared to the month before, when the city issued only three single-family building permits.”
“Even with the small increase, 2007 was still the second-lowest year on record going back to 1980.”
“‘This is about as low as you can get,’ said Bud Schulz, executive director of the Colorado River Building Industry Association. ‘On the positive side, there’s no place to go but up.’”
“Mark Durham, president of the CRBIA, said there was a combination of factors. ‘The lenders are tightened up. They’re reviewing their applications a lot more closely,’ Durham said. ‘Before, you could buy a house for virtually nothing down. Now they’re making sure that you qualify and can make your payments.’”
The Review Journal from Nevada. “The Southern Nevada housing market is continuously evolving. Valley home prices soared in 2005 and sales were recorded in record numbers. Since then, the Southern Nevada housing market has swung in the opposite direction and become a buyer’s market.”
“With more than 22,000 houses listed for sale on the MLS in December, an influx of foreclosures, a slowing sales pace and tightening of the subprime mortgage lending market, prices of both new and existing homes have decreased.”
“The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors’ most recent sales statistics for December 2007 report the median sales price of a single-family, detached, resale house was $260,000, a 15 percent decrease compared to December 2006.”
“The median sales price of an attached, resale condominium/townhome was $185,000, a 5 percent price reduction from the previous December. Of the 879 houses sold in December, 228 were repossessed.”
“Devin Reiss, 2007 GLVAR president, described the lowering of home prices as part of a housing cycle. ‘Definitely housing has become more affordable. We’ve gotten back to an affordable price range now. Certainly, we (the GLVAR) have been stressing that this is an opportune time to buy,’ Reiss said.”
“‘This is part of the housing cycle. It is an opportunity cycle right now that buyers should really be capitalizing on before it’s too late and they are priced out of their price range again,’ he said.”
“Sapphire Springs by Richmond American (offered) a 1,136-square-foot, two-bedroom, 21/2-bath home in the northern valley for $153,990. In February 2007, SalesTraq reported the same size of floor plan available at that neighborhood for $198,990. The price reduction in just under one year amounts to 22.6 percent.”
“Encantos by Storybook Homes…in the eastern valley…listed a 1,271-square-foot, two-bedroom, 11/2-bath house for $169,965; in February 2007, its lowest-priced floor plan was a 1,199-square-foot home for $199,240.”
“Rumors have circulated that sales prices are not necessarily set in stone at some new-home neighborhoods.”
“‘I’ve heard quite a few stories with home prices (at new-home neighborhoods) being negotiable…It would be difficult to call it across the board, but I’ve heard that some builders have been negotiable with their prices. It varies. It certainly doesn’t hurt to ask,’ Reiss said.”
“D.R. Horton Homes, one of the largest new-home builders in the country, recently announced to the Las Vegas brokerage community the release of 500 completed homes. Located in 40 neighborhoods throughout the Las Vegas Valley, these homes are available for immediate purchase and move-in.”
“‘Our strategy is to be extremely aggressive in 2008,’ explains Jeff Ward, director of sales for D.R. Horton.”
“The builder has recently lowered the sales price of the 2350 floor plan to below $140 per square foot in some valley locations.”
“Themed around the big game, Super Buy Saturday will illuminate the entire array of the completed homes recently released for sale, and the unprecedented pricing now published on the builder’s Web site, Ward said. Football legend William ‘The Refrigerator’ Perry will attend the event and be on hand to autograph memorabilia and take photographs with sports fans.”
“With Meritage Homes offering savings of up to $120,000 and interest rates holding low, the time to purchase a home is now, according to Robb Beville, the company’s Las Vegas division president.”
“‘The home-building industry is at a rare point in its history,’ Beville said. ‘As a rule, mortgage rates are usually down when home prices are high, or mortgage rates are low and housing prices are higher. They rarely happen at the same time.’”
“‘Our goal is firm in 2008, to provide the right home, at the right price, in the right location,’ he said.”
In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Las Vegas home prices continued to plummet in December, falling to their lowest level since April 2004, according to statistics released this week by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”
“The median price of homes on the Multiple Listing Service sold in December was $260,000, down $13,500 or 5 percent from November. Prices are down 15 percent from December 2006, the Realtors group reported. Most listings are existing homes.”
“Prices were as high as $315,000 in June 2006, meaning prices have fallen more than 17 percent from that peak.”
“Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors President Patty Kelley said that December may not be a true reflection of the marketplace because of a large number of homes that are vacant and owned by investors, banks and other lenders.”
“They sold at deeply discounted prices to get their properties off the books, creating an artificially low median price, she said. Nearly one-third of the 879 homes sold in the region in December were either repossessed or short sales, Kelley said.”
“‘I believe that percentage may actually be closer to 40 percent of all home sales since banks are under enormous pressure to get these properties off their books,’ Kelley said.”
“Despite the drop in prices, buyers aren’t scooping up the houses. The 879 homes sold in December were 9.2 percent below November and 47 percent below December 2006. ‘People buy on the way up, but they don’t buy on the way down,’ said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq. ‘They are waiting for it to hit the bottom.’”
“SalesTraq reports 51 percent of the listings on Jan. 1 were vacant homes. Given the limited sales in December, the inventory remains at 21 months despite a reduction in new listings, Murphy said.”
The Spectrum from Utah. “Jaime Bundy has waited on the sidelines of St. George’s real estate market since May. She and her husband…decided to wait and see if they could get a better deal for a four- to five-bedroom home.”
“Her Realtor, Natalie Larsen, showed Bundy one home priced at $279,000. Just months ago the same homeowners were asking for $348,000, Larsen said.”
“The average home in Washington County in the third quarter of 2007 sold for $322,687, down from $351,295 in the third quarter of 2006, according to the Utah Board of Realtors Web site.”
“In Iron County, the average home price was $210,939 in the third quarter of 2007. In the third quarter of 2006, the average home sold for $247,096, according to the site.”
“The house Bundy inspected was built in 2005. Back then, St. George’s real estate market was a whole different game. ‘It was crazy,’ Larsen said. ‘You would be standing in a house, and by the time you got back to the office, it would already have an accepted offer.’”
“Vardell Curtis, CEO for the Washington County Board of Realtors, said there was a home-buying frenzy between the first quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006.”
“A larger amount of investors came to the area and bought up houses on the market, said Lori Chapman, president of Washington County Board of Realtors. The increase in demand led to a smaller supply, which created a 38.4 percent increase in home appreciation, Curtis said.”
“To help feed the frenzy, many builders began developing more housing neighborhoods, Chapman said. Building new housing projects takes time. Chapman said by the time some of the new developments were finished, the housing frenzy had slowed.”
“Mortgage rates began to readjust, as well, and new foreclosures and quick sales also added to the market’s supply. SGI mortgage broker Scott Gibson said an average of 100 homes in Washington County are given notices of default each month.”
“In November, there were 27 months’ worth of inventory for sale in Washington County, Curtis said. Curtis said some sellers are frustrated right now because no one appears to be interested in their home. But the reality for many sellers is that the home just isn’t priced to sell in the current market.”
“‘The ship of 2005 has sailed,’ Curtis said during a presentation at the Washington County Economic Summit. ‘If your home is priced competitively, it’s going to sell.’”
“Jaime Bundy is what Chapman would consider an educated buyer who does her homework. On foreclosed homes, Bundy said she researches the remainder of the home loan so she can better estimate a fair price. And after eight months of searching, Bundy said she’s ready to make the plunge.”
“‘I’m so ready to buy,’ she said.”
“Curtis said he expects more people like the Bundys to begin purchasing homes in the near future, he said. Larsen said she agreed. She said the market is ‘just evening itself out.’”
“‘Right now, we’re having a moment, but it will be OK,’ she said.”
“Despite the perception of the current real estate market, a decade into the future, people will look back and kick themselves for not buying a home this year. So says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, speaking at the Tucson Association of Realtors’ 2008 Forecast seminar.”
Ah Ha…………….more of the fun that yun spun
There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media.’”
Ballooning inventory numbers have nothing to do with media spin.
Terrible.
So…”irrational pessimism” is the opposite of “irrational exuberance”? Good try.
“There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media.’”
Damn media. They’re messing up everything.
Yun sounds like that japanese trader years ago Tokyomex or Tokyo Joe.
Buy Buy Buy,
and we know what happened to him
Actually, I don’t. What happened to him?
Oh………you know……….
Tokyo Mex… I don’t know what happened to him, but it may not have been good.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9806E6DF1338F932A1575BC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all
I could’ve sworn he said that last year too. That 2008 would be the big rebound. I’m sure he’s saving this comment on file so he can regurgitate it next year.
Does anyone think they actually believe their own BS?
I wish I had some of whatever drugs he is taking…….
In the Arizona dessert he must be thirsty. Nah, don’t think you want to drink the Kool-Aid, Ann.
No one would believe me if I started spouting that nonsense. I even converted my local county newspaper to reality - and they live and die on real estate advertising. They are working on 4-5 part series on the mortgage and cedit crash and how it affects us here. The publisher now refers to the local Real Estate cabal’s press releases claiming that house sale price ‘average’ is holding as “propaganda” and says that they will not print such nonsense. (He knows the joke about 3 guys are in a bar and Bill Gates walks in so now there average income is XXX)
I know 3 couples buying houses in Burbank, Ca now. They cant wait.
They must have been lsitening to Yun.
Sometimes I feel (s)he might be right cos 2 bed + loft apartment rent is $2500/month in burbank. 3 b/r houses are selling for 500-600K in the same area.
Does it make sense?
There are still alot of idiots in California….
http://www.fritolay.com/fl/flstore/cgi-bin/Nutrition_ProdID_3049.htm
Yahooo! Good news comes to Utah at last.
Yeah, I get tired of their BS - along with Washington and Oregon. Their special and different alright.
California leads the nation in just about every direction and trend that is imagined. WE created the BS Liar loan and gave birth to this freekin mess - and nobody is exempt from the WHUPPIN that is coming.
I just got back from spending 2 weeks in Washington and Iron county. They are so screwed and they don’t even know it yet. Knife catchers crowing about buying $350k homes for $280k… Those homes aren’t worth $280k either. And even if they were there’s no way any natives down there can afford anything close to that. Right now there’s a lot of praying that the rich retirees from Vegas will save southern Utah. Good luck, a few will come I’m sure, but nowhere near enough to make a difference…
The Washington County bubble started in late 03 and peaked in August 05 (the biggest month in SFH sales). The numbers have been going down YOY consistently ever since. We are now around the 2001 sales number mark.
I am finding that a lot of my neighbors are praying that our local economy will be improved when (if) we get our new airport. I have heard and read locally that “the Global economy can save us”, I’m not kidding.
There are areas around here where 50% of the neighborhood is sporting for sale signs. Other areas have many houses that have been stopped in mid-construction (GreenValley, Foremaster Ridge and around Sandhollow).
Most people living here don’t think we are a retirement Community, even though that’s all we really are. The belief amoung most individuals living here is that we are a thriving, growing City (according to the WSJ and Fortune mag last year) with a robush economy and bright future. “Everyone wants to live here”.
On a side note. I think the lack of Construction jobs in the U.S. is going to affect more than just our local job market. The illegal alien population here is getting bigger (a huge increase over the last 3-4 months) and harder to deal with. We have had two stabbings (one gang related) already this year. Most of these “document-challenged” people live in the Dixie Downs area (where the violence occurred). Our medical facilities are now feeling the effects of the increased illegal population. This includes services in the very expensive ICU and NICU departments.
Word from the local Hospital(s) workers (including my wife) is that most are coming from Arizona and Nevada and they are telling the staff people (in Spanish) that they are in our town looking for work (mostly construction) because the jobs no longer exist in the States that they are coming from.
When I lived in W. Colo. word was that the illegals went to Utah for drivers licenses, etc., as Utah was friendly to them wanted cheap labor. Word must’ve spread.
Once again steadycat with excellent boots on the ground observations! I am so irritated at watching Utah go through all the stages of euphoria AFTER everywhere else was in the process of crashing. Well, I guess it will be a double feature then? I’ll have to ask Neil if I can borrow some popcorn.
I notice that the number of Mexican migrant construction workers is increasing. There are a few hundred waiting outside the Cupertino Home Depot every day. I don’t know how many can find day work, but I would bet that most go home not finding work.
I see a lot more traffic in San Jose California (The Job Capital of Northern California). I think the people are leaving the Central Valley and leaving their dreams of getting rich flipping houses in the Central Valley. The are returning to a real job and San Jose still has a lot of high paying jobs.
‘There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media.’”
“The audience of about 325 real estate agents, brokers, developers and builders gave a loud cheer and applause.”
do they pay to listen to this sht ?
Hard to believe, but they do indeed.
Do they publish information on dues collections? That might be interesting to look at.
Yes. They get kool-aid to drink, too.
:We are fulfilling our own prophesy”
Jim Jones, rest in hell, let me introduce you to our latest shill…his name is lawrence…
crush
Re: “‘This is about as low as you can get,’ said Bud Schulz, executive director of the Colorado River Building Industry Association. ‘On the positive side, there’s no place to go but up.’”
As long as there are ANY sales, you can always go down:)
“It’s always darkest right before it goes pitch black.”
“The purpose of your life may only be to serve as a bad example for others”
They told me, “Cheer up……things could be worse. And sure enough, I cheered up, and things got worse.”
He conveniently ignores sideways as an option as well.
‘But considering in Tucson over this boom we saw 50 percent appreciation, then no growth in 2006 and what we figure to be about 2 percent depreciation of values in 2007, it is like taking 50 steps forward and two steps back for most homeowners.’
Of course for those buying now, it is exactly the reverse — 50 steps into permanent house serfdom, minus inflation, and two steps of relief, more than offset by rising interest rates.
‘We are in a normal year and just have to get back to work” But if we’re back to a “normal” market we surely don’t as many builders, contractors, stagers, mortgage brokers, RE agents etc.
Slim checking in from Tucson. Here’s what I’m seeing:
1. A lot of empty houses with “For Sale” signs out front for months and months and months and months. I even know of one property that’s been on the market (with different agencies) for two years.
2. Some of these houses, because they don’t sell, become rentals. Now, I’ve never been accused of being a landlord, but I do know from others that this is not an easy way to make money. Never has been, never will be.
3. There’s still a lot of brave talk in the local real estate community. You just read some in Ben’s post.
BTW, I have an opportunity to enter the Death Star tonight. There’s a public meeting (about a road widening) that’s being held at the Tucson Association of Realtors ™ HQ. I’ll give you an inside report — including any REIC lit that I can swipe — tomorrow.
We rented a place last week in Oro Valley. 4 houses on same block for sale. The house we rented had been sold 3 mos ago for 307K, all of the homes on the block were asking 350k+…and no, they didn’t look any differently.
Methinks they may not sell for a long time.
But wow, what a beautiful area. Did a little hiking, temps were great (other than a bit rainy the first day or too). Probably wouldn’t say the same thing in July, but nice place to visit at this time of year.
too=two. Obviously still on vacation.
Now, I’ve never been accused of being a landlord, but I do know from others that this is not an easy way to make money. Never has been, never will be.
Aw now Arizonaslim, they might get lucky and get me for a tenant. My landlady keeps saying that I am fussier about how the house is maintained than she is - shutters and window sills get repainted, gravel drive gets deweeded by my lawn service, even climbing up on the roof to check the shingles before winter. And of course, I’m a die-hard gardner- Garden Club type and all that - so my idea of a good time is restoring all the flower beds with perennials and landscaping. I’m up to 2000 sq ft of cottage-garden plants, nearly 3 dozen antique roses ….and am incapable of passing up a 75% off sale on rhododendrons and hydrangeas….
Of course we had committed to a 4-6 year lease back in ‘04; and my husband figures that a 400 tulips are cheaper than buying me a 30 ft boat.
Dear Ann–If you would ever like to rent in Cambridge, MA or on the coast of Maine, please let me know! BTW I have been renting for 6 years and have always had great tenants, really wonderful people (like you!) who leave the rentals in better shape than when they arrived. I think this is because we have really beautiful places for rent, charge the tenants a reasonable amount, treat them with respect, and if a problem comes up, fix it immediately and cheerfully. There’s no reason that tenants and landlords (or ladies) have to be adversaries IMO.
My landlady and I are definitely NOT adversaries - in fact we are very good friends. She even depends upon me to get the special dog food for her small dog. I feed Caribou Creek Gold -the food used by the winners of the Iditarod 1000 mile sled dog race - and have to have it shipped in 50 lb bags.
Maine…..oh now THAT is tempting. My father spent his summers as a teenager in Boothbay working at a marina - even got a Captain’s license and remembers watching them film a Rodgers and Hammerstein musical there….. hmmmmm… just love the place to death!
Ann, you must be the rara avis of tenants that proves the rule.
I get people who insist on midnight plumbing repair when they drop silverware down their garbage disposals, and then leave holes in the walls when they move out. Trust fund babies are the worst, followed by old women who expect free TV repair service and people who keep snakes. Thank heavens I haven’t had any junkies since I stopped taking section 8 tenants.
Actually while most landlords with nice places having a waiting list for tenants, I have a wait list of prospective landlords. This is a small village in the middle of a US National Park on Lake Michigan so everyone knows everybody. Several people have said “if you ever want to move, let me know….” Think it has something to do with my yard being nicknamed “The Botanical Gardens” by the village and that my giant breed (over 115 lbs) dogs obey hand signals instantly…….
Tulip mania, anyone?
I have always done the same to all the rentals I’ve lived in. Everyone says I’m wasting money or giving something to the landlord, but I love to garden and while I live there it’s my home regardless of who I make the payment to. Last rental we had, we repaired the hot tub because we wanted to use it and landlord didn’t want to repair it. Was worth every penny we spent.
Neat thing about perennials is you can always divide them and take some with you. Mine are exploding and I have to divide some this spring - good thing I held back a 100 sq ft circle shaped bed in reserve and just did annuals in it for a couple years. Had to divide some this year and palmed them off on my landlady when I simply couold not find space. The local Post Office ask to be on my “this plant needs a home’ list.
“Of course we had committed to a 4-6 year lease back in ‘04; and my husband figures that a 400 tulips are cheaper than buying me a 30 ft boat.”
Not much cheaper though, to say nothing about the relative gratification of drinking and shagging the afternoon away amongst a bunch of tulips vs lake/boat.
Sounds like a case of tulip-mania to me!
I have an opportunity to enter the Death Star tonight.
Be sure to check the batteries in your cloaking device - the REICsistance can’t afford to lose you.
Me again.
I’m listening to Gov. Napolitano’s State of the State address. Just talked about (get this!) diversifying our economic development beyond the REIC.
But why? We just heard from the chief NAR economist that things are getting better.
lawerece yun said it’s a great time to buy.Where did my tinfoil go?
‘Where did my tinfoil ‘
- That ‘tinfoil’ will keep grounded in reality….unlike Larry.
Every community in the state is soooo backasswards in their budget…too much kneeling in front of builders/big box retailers…Prescott has an over 1.5 million shortfall, plus they’re about to get their hiney sued off by SRP for trying to take water that is not theirs….water that they already spent over 3 million just doing feasibility studies on how to pump it several miles.
Larry Yun is a dope. A really big dopey dope. What he’s spewing in Tucson is criminal.
Phoenix, Chandler, Glendale, Surprise, most Arizona cities. . . fighting one another to compete for the honor of having big box stores. Rebating enormous amounts of sales tax dollars to the stores. It is one thing to pay 8.5% on a bottle of detergent to a store as a means of paying for public services. But paying a store sales tax for its corporate coffers. Give me a break.
Attention municipalities, the stores will build where they have to in order to meet demand. Stop subsidizing them.
The good news is that the Goldwater Institute has is suing the city of phoenix over their subsidy of a project called “City North”. Its illegal to provide the kind of subsidies that many cities have provided to private companies.
http://www.goldwaterinstitute.org/litigation/turkenvgordon.aspx
Ben - 980K for this? Is this for real? Even the “short sale” price seems ridiculous
http://flagstaff.craigslist.org/rfs/538706595.html
It is a good representation of the mindset there. Looks like a dump.
650000 short selling home valued at $980,000
Why are they selling for 650 when valued at 980?Is this blantant bs still attracting fb’s?
Nice photos. Cell phone?
For all that HELOC craziness, I’d expect to see a Lamborghini or two in the garage!
” so we are asking if an investor would buy it short.”
Sure… I’ll pay $25K for it.
Try this for comparison:
http://www.taar.com/mlssearch/#
MLS#: 1681726
MLS#: 1684422
We are 4-5 hours from any ‘city’ that has over 20,000 people; 2-3 hours from an Interstate, and the airport terminal (in the next county) can fit in a footballfield - the ‘airport’ nearby is a grass field that is only open in the summer.
The ‘lake’ that it is on is an inner lake that is very shallow - wade out 300 feet and it might get to your waist - and is about 4800 acres.
What ever is in the water supply? Hallucinogenic drugs?
Yep they are on drugs!!
Don’cha know? ALL the Boomers want to retire up here - and we are futher north than Ontario? And that all the rich Californians and New Yorkers are going to keep swooping in here and buying up summer places that they can use from mid-June through August??? LOL!!!
Californians and New Yorkers? I thought you guys were trying to sell to Chicagoans.
Nice area, BTW. I was trying to figure out were you were located from the above posts. I grew up (not in Chicago) on the sand dunes along the shores of Lake Michigan. Most coastal types have no idea how beautiful and relaxing some parts of flyover country is.
And what would you offer this arrogant prick?
http://flagstaff.craigslist.org/rfs/538021238.html
$100K, after he replaces the roof.
After seeing his ad (with a photo of the property), a sharp razor.
It isn’t downtown, that’s for sure. That’s old Flagstaff. Based on the rent and the restrictions, I’d say $100k, tops.
TX your killin me. Those two place TOGETHER aren’t worth more than 250K. Crimineys, the warehouse is a box. The house will def. need work. Besides where is the water needed for the person/people who live in that house? It sure isn’t in the lake next door!
It’s not downtown, but I really do like it over there. Southern Thorpe Park. We used to gig frogs and catch crayfish at the school pond that way. Don’t know if that warehouse could be made livable. Guy may be a bit out of touch….its gotta be the altitude
What a salesman! This really makes me want to write a check, right this minute. Flagstaff, here I come!
“And you baby boomers that have spent your life saying, I shoulda this and I coulda that…this is your last chance to do something with your meaningless life. Buy this building for $525,000 now or stand aside and watch as your last chance at happiness sails over the horizon.”
How does that saying go; “If spending 525K is right, then I wanna be wrong!”
It’s a friggin garage! I’ll give him 1/10th, or $52,500. That is generous.
Did you see the whole thing? Un-freakinbelievable
“I’m giving you Flagstaff Hippies and mountain bikers a chance to get into a cool building downtown and I’ll even carry it till your rich uncle dies. I’m giving you trust fund babies a reason to call your trustee to get an advance. I’m giving you young professionals a reason to close out that portfolio and really start building something for the kids. And you baby boomers that have spent your life saying, I shoulda this and I coulda that…this is your last chance to do something with your meaningless life. Buy this building for $525,000 now or stand aside and watch as your last chance at happiness sails over the horizon.”
all this…. for a garage?! WTF?
You guys are being too hard on him. He’s probably just reusing the ad that got HIM to buy it.
“rent is $1,800 a month. I’m an old fashioned landlord and I haven’t raised the rent since they moved in 9 years ago. I’m not in tune with the current market but I think it’s safe to say you could increase it by 50% or even double it.”
Alright Einstein, if doubling the rent is really possible, why haven’t you done it?
Because his finances are probably so marginal that he can’t take the hit of a few month’s vacancy plus the cost of fixing the roof, so that he could find another tenant who would pay the new rent.
$1800 a month rent. Wants to sell it for $525K. Says you can own it for the cost of rent….
Oh, but he could raise the rent to $2700….
We’re expected to believe that you’re having a cow about dropping the price by $15K, but are willing and eager to throw away $900 a month on potential rent?
At 6%, which you won’t get on that property since you won’t be living in it, interest alone would be $2700. So, EVEN IF you’re dumb enough to believe rent could be increased to $2700 a month, you’re losing money on property tax, insurance, repairs, maintenance, etc.
And what if the renters walk? They are month-to-month.
Walter should probably post a little mor einfo than that to get that kind of dough for what looks like a regular ranch style house.
‘There seems to be an irrational pessimistic outlook on the market fed by negative stories from the media.’
What, does Yun think he’s Alan Greenspan? Sorry Yun, as much as I detest AG, he has more intelligence than you could ever aspire to. You are just a blathering parrot.
“Last month was the weakest for sales in nearly a decade. Valley-wide, 3,290 homes were sold compared with 4,620 in December 2006 and 3,240 in December 1999.”
This, boys and girls, is what we call ‘return to mean’. You see the # of sales made in 12/99? The one that is pretty similar to 12/97? So we are getting pretty close to ‘normal’ sales #s.
Hence, sales are NOT depressed and there are just not many ‘fence-sitters’. These low, low figures that portend worse things for the market to come are what normal #s look like.
Now, if only prices keep following…
Though it is really funny to see, that right at the beginning of the end, some have the gall to call it the end.
“‘We need to get rid of the excess,’ he said. ‘But when reports come out that the Fed might cut rates in January, and then more in March and maybe in May too, people are going to wait and wait to buy. We are fulfilling our own prophesy.’”
If memory serves, then the Bank of Japan cut rates then cut again and again and again all the way to zero in the early 1990s. Can anyone recall whether their residential real estate prices came back soon thereafter?
I believe that their RE prices went down for many years thereafter.
It’s called deflation
dropping rates
dropping prices
people sit on their hands and wait for a better deal.
Deflation?
Where is Jas?
Calling Dr. Jas. Calling Dr. Jas.
“The ailing housing market ended a painful year with a modest increase in building activity. (Lake Havasu City) issued six single-family building permits in December, the latest in a string of single-digit monthly totals that became commonplace in the just-ended year. The total was up compared to the month before, when the city issued only three single-family building permits.”
Some of these idiots have become detatched from reality. This reminds me of the last days of WW2 Europe, where Hitler obsessed about controlling the movement of SINGLE German talks to stem the onslaught of the Soviet hords. YES! Six new permits pulled in Lake Havasu! We’re saved, the RE collapse has been thwarted!
It sounds like a disaster in LHC. I have friends there, so mixed emotions. I hope they can ride it out.
Speaking of idiots…
German talks = German tanks
They need to get the Brits on board, they’d feel right at home with London Bridge there.
Yeah, sure they will. I remember lots of desert in the UK.
right you are, but if they just keep their eyes on the bridge and the water under it…
Here’s a good one…Yavapai County issued 20 building permits in the entire county, in Dec. Population +/- for county: 250,000 people.
Yeah, Larry Yun, it’s the “perception” that things are bad.
“‘The home-building industry is at a rare point in its history,’ Beville said. ‘As a rule, mortgage rates are usually down when home prices are high, or mortgage rates are low and housing prices are higher. They rarely happen at the same time.’”
He’s right, the same thing rarely happens at the same time. What a moron, and fire the writer and the copy editor!
shoe sales must be good
Peg & Al
more people like the Bundys to begin purchasing homes in the near future,
Al Bundy remains my revered hero and role model.
“It is a fact that (2007) is the first time home appreciation was negative since the Great Depression”
This is the fact, the rest is noise.
You know yun, there is a word for negative appreciation: it’s depreciation. This particular word torture cracks me up. It’s like you can’t use the words real estate and depreciation in the same paragraph.
“‘We are in a normal year and just have to get back to work. The free ride is over.’”
Yeah, tell that to all the FB’s. Free ride?
“With Meritage Homes offering savings of up to $120,000 and interest rates holding low, the time to purchase a home is now, according to Robb Beville, the company’s Las Vegas division president.”
“‘The home-building industry is at a rare point in its history,’ Beville said. ‘As a rule, mortgage rates are usually down when home prices are high, or mortgage rates are low and housing prices are higher. They rarely happen at the same time.’”
Aside from his obvious typo, what he’s trying to say is that prices are low and interest rates are low. He’s wrong. Despite having up to $120K in savings, prices are still very high in relation to incomes. When interest rates eventually do come up, prices will have to decrease even more to make up for the rise in interest rates for new buyers. So what if you get a great rate on your house if you have to sell when rates do go up, potential buyers will have less buying power and thus you’ll have to sell at even lower than what you bought at.
Price history for a home with the same floor plan, on the street I first lived on when I moved to Las Vegas in 2005:
7145 Bocaire, Silverstone Golf Course
High price - $515k, 05/01/07
Low price - $249k, 12/31/07
Last sale - $424k, 08/06
Price Reduced: 10/26/06 — $499,999 to $499,749
Price Reduced: 11/04/06 — $499,749 to $499,499
Price Reduced: 11/16/06 — $499,499 to $499,249
Price Reduced: 11/22/06 — $499,249 to $498,999
Price Reduced: 11/28/06 — $498,999 to $489,999
Price Increased: 12/07/06 — $489,999 to $515,000
Price Reduced: 05/01/07 — $515,000 to $514,000
Price Reduced: 06/15/07 — $514,000 to $499,000
Price Reduced: 08/09/07 — $499,000 to $399,000
Price Reduced: 08/14/07 — $399,000 to $369,000
Price Reduced: 09/09/07 — $369,000 to $349,000
Price Reduced: 09/15/07 — $349,000 to $299,000
Price Reduced: 12/10/07 — $299,000 to $270,000
Price Reduced: 12/31/07 — $270,000 to $249,000
Her name is REO and she dances on the sand.
Just like that river twisting through a dusty land.
And when she shines she really shows you all she can
Oh REO REO dance across the REO Grande.
A $200 “price reduction” on a half million dollar home?
This shows the risk of chasing the market down by being too stingy and slow with your Dutch auction price discounts.
Those $250 price reductions early on are priceless. Great strategy!
’tis a REO
http://www.streamfx.com/CW/10-23-2007/REO-Nevada18.html
“Encantos by Storybook Homes…in the eastern valley…listed a 1,271-square-foot, two-bedroom, 11/2-bath house for $169,965; in February 2007, its lowest-priced floor plan was a 1,199-square-foot home for $199,240.”
I just HAD to find these so-called “Storybook” homes. Storybook is a new architectural term for 1920’s California semi-Tudor cottages that look like something the witch in Hansel and Gretel would live in. Very charming, if somewhat overwrought.
Here is Storybook Homes idea of a storybook home:
http://www.storybookhomes.us/newhome/encantos/our_homes.asp
They look like Stephen King stories to me.
Note how the garage is the most prominent feature on the front of the house.
Is baby poop brown the only color the developer uses? They look pretty depressing.
Uh, that’s not baby poop. The illegals that built it didn’t have a porta-pottie.
If your running your car in the garage the family is getting gassed above in the bedrooms.
A bit boxier than the Poltergeist house, but that’s what I think of when I see houses like that. I’m always expecting them to be sucked into the ground at any moment, as skeletons rise from the pool.
Whoa. Fugly.
I swear the ‘Lowell’ model looks like a cartoon drawing of the house that ate the FB. CUTE! SCARY!
I have a cardboard box in my garage that looks better than these so called houses.
Better check to make sure some realtor isn’t living in your cardboard box, Mr. Vincent.
‘This is part of the housing cycle. It is an opportunity cycle right now that buyers should really be capitalizing on before it’s too late and they are priced out of their price range again,’ he said.”
——————
“Priced out of their price range?”
Somebody explain this head-scratcher to me!
‘This is part of the housing cycle. It is an opportunity cycle right now that buyers should really be capitalizing on before it’s too late and they are priced out of their price range again,’ he said.”
…
Somebody explain this head-scratcher to me!
“This is part of the housing cycle. In this part of the cycle, it’s very important that people continue to buy houses, or else I’ll have to find a job”
-Devin Reiss, 2007 GLVAR president
Is the Presidio thing in west flag still going to go through?
900 new homes? I get the impression that half the homes in flag are vacant anyway-they are just second homes. I hope not. I like it out West there on the way to Parks.
your chance to vote and you don’t have to live in any particular state.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22650497?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS
After Yuns speach
“The audience of about 325 real estate agents, brokers, developers and builders gave a loud cheer and applause.”
I was at Cisco in 1999 when John Chambers gave his “We are going to skip our 30s speech”. Meaning we were going from a 20 billion market cap company to a 40 billion something market cap company. Everyone gave a huge round of applause. We did skip our 30s. Only we went back to the teens…And by the way Chambers said this last sales meeting, that he had never seen a better market…And that Greenspan was a hero…What is your prediction?
“‘As the months went on, I realized I wasn’t getting paid,’ he said. ‘We have been going through so many months of ‘We’re going to have the money on Friday.’”
And it took months for it to dawn on this dimwit that he was going to be left holding the bag?
I love this article out of the Sierra Vista Herald. I read the whole article and found not one word of skepticism or fact checking by them. This is not news.
This is a paid advertisement.
“The Valley’s median existing-home price hit a high of $267,000 in June 2006. December’s median is a 13 percent drop from the peak.
Some say home prices have a little more to fall.
Based on the 6 to 10 percent Valley home prices climbed annually before the boom, $232,000 is pretty close to where the median home price would be without the boom.”
How convenient. You get to have the 2004-05 mania-driven price boom and the worst case scenario is that you end up with the equivalent of high single-digit appreciation in perpetuity. Of course, it is a load of Barbra Streisand.
In the Phoenix suburbs and exurbs that I track, the occasional sale actually seems to do as much (or more) to drive down other list prices. It makes sense. I have seen a 3 bedroom, 1,800 square foot model (an REO) that peaked in price at $285K (many sold in this price range in 2005) finally drop to $190K and sell/close. Within days, the serious sellers (mostly other banks) had list prices in the $170s and $180s for the same model. Of course, these places sold in the $130s and $140s as of 2002-03.
There are still plenty of fantasy list prices, just a few less. The huge inventory has been around for a while. But the knife-catchers are doing the real work of establishing future comps to work down from.
—sentence fragment, insert CAPS—
In the Phoenix suburbs and exurbs that I track, the occasional sale actually seems to do as much (or more) to drive down other list prices THAN THE LARGE INVENTORY DOES.
We’ve gotten back to an affordable price range now.”
“They sold at deeply discounted prices to get their properties off the books, creating an artificially low median price”
MCFLY! HELLO, MCFLY!!! These poeple are beyond clueless.
>> “Despite the perception of the current real estate market, a decade into the future, people will look back and kick themselves for not buying a home this year. So says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors… .
I’d really like to Lawrence, but I can’t sell my own home.