Nowhere Near A Turning Point In California
The Ventura County Star reports from California. “Real estate figures released Tuesday show that Ventura County sales plummeted in 2007 to the worst level since the market took off in 2002. Sales of new and existing homes and condominiums totaled 8,861 last year, less than half of the 18,563 deals closed in 2002, according to DataQuick. The December median sales price fell 11 percent year over year to $525,250 — retreating to the high from four years ago.”
“Buyers are still out there, hunting for good deals, typically foreclosures and bank-owned properties, said Kay Wilson-Bolton, broker based in Santa Paula. Bank losses are staggering, with some lenders ‘kissing goodbye’ to sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars on a transaction, she said.”
“‘Agents are encouraging people to put any amount on the house if it’s a short pay,’ Wilson-Bolton said. In Oxnard, which is ‘hurting the most,’ 45 percent of total properties for sale are either bank-owned or short pay, she said.”
“But it’s not all grim, said Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast project. ‘There’s a flip side,’ he said. ‘Housing is becoming more affordable for people.’”
The Union Tribune. “Many would-be buyers are waiting for prices to drop further, said Ed Smith Jr.,VP of governmental affairs and industry relations for the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.”
“‘They think they can buy houses cheaper,’ Smith said. ‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
“About 22 percent of the homes sold last month in Southern California were financed with jumbo loans, a decline of nearly 40 percent from mid-2007, DataQuick reported.”
“Encinitas-based real estate broker Marc Zimmerman agrees that the credit crunch is harming sales. ‘The median price is lower because there are not as many loans available for upper-end home buyers who can’t document their income,’ he said.”
The North County Times. “December foreclosure sales in San Diego County quadrupled year over year, and statewide, sales of new homes in November dropped 55 percent from the previous year, according to three reports released Tuesday.”
“Housing is just beginning to feel the hit from when banks first tightened lending standards in August, said Sean O’Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar. Foreclosed property valued at about $5 billion sold at auctions statewide in December. So far, about $3.5 billion has moved in January, O’Toole said.”
“‘It’s never been this high. We already surpassed all records by the third quarter of last year,’ O’Toole said. ‘And we’ve really been on a tear in the beginning of January.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Shoppers went to malls but stayed away from open houses and model homes last month in what analysts are calling the worst December in 19 years for Southern California’s housing market. In December, sales numbers in Riverside and San Bernardino counties are down about 50 percent from where they were a year ago, DataQuick reported.”
“DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the only homes that are moving are coming from sellers who feel they’re forced to offer deals.”
“‘December was an extremely weak month no matter how you look at it,’ LePage said. ‘What we’re looking at is sales that are coming from the most motivated sellers, either people who are in foreclosure or new-home builders who are adjusting to today’s reality.’”
“The median sales price in Riverside County last month was $355,000, slightly lower than November’s $356,500 but 17.8 percent below a year earlier and the steepest year-to-year price decline among Southern California’s six counties.”
“San Bernardino County saw a $15,000 decline in the median sales price last month. Prices are now 14.9 percent lower than a year ago.”
“‘We’re trying to get rid of inventory,’ said Borre Winckel, executive director of the Riverside chapter of the Building Industry Association. ‘We’re just searching for that bottom, and we need a very large searchlight for that. We’re just not seeing it.’”
“The record highs were $432,000 in Riverside County and $380,000 in San Bernardino County, both set about a year ago. Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.”
The Daily Bulletin. “According to DataQuick, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin. Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.”
“Upland real estate agent Michael McCasland thinks the housing market still has further to fall. ‘There really isn’t a lot of buyer confidence right now,’ he said. ‘I think we’ll eventually see prices fall back to where they were in 2003.’”
“In a report also out Tuesday that showed new home sales are down 55 percent from a year ago, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence said the market was nowhere near a turning point.”
“‘With sales declines continuing and inventories building, thanks in part to the ongoing problems in the credit markets and poor consumer confidence, we are not likely to see signs of recovery any time soon,’ said HWMI’s Jonathan Dienhart.”
“The median price of a home in Southern California has dropped from $490,000 to $425,000 in the last year, with every one of the six counties in the region down by more than 10 percent.”
The Press Telegram. “Empty lots and signs imprinted with images of lofty condominium projects are hidden in the cracks and crevices among many of downtown Long Beach’s rising and newly risen developments. The ‘build it and they will come’ vision that civic leaders and downtown proponents promoted for so long is incomplete, and if forecasts for the residential real estate market hold out, some of those lots may stay empty for several years.”
“At least two high-rise condominium projects have seemingly fallen by the wayside, and several more may morph into other developments that do not include residential, city officials and developers say.”
“‘Right now, getting residential financing is a little difficult,’ said Craig Beck, the city’s planning director. ‘So, we’re seeing different things. Hotel financing is strong. I think it’s just a cycle.’”
“What would have been the city’s biggest project, the Molasky Pacific development, was proposed in early 2006. At more than 1,100 residential units, the plans included towers of 45 and 55 stories that would have risen to become the city’s two tallest buildings.”
“But two weeks ago, developers asked to cancel their request for an environmental impact report, according to planners. ‘In my opinion right now that project is not moving forward,’ Beck said.”
“Even condo projects that were ahead of the real estate slowdown have felt the pinch. Such is the case with developers of West Ocean, a pair of sleek new towers at 400 Ocean Blvd. ‘We’ve had some cancellations,’ said Joanne Rowland, senior VP of marketing for Intracorp, the developer of West Ocean. ‘The market’s tough.’”
“Tower 1 is complete, with 67 of the 132 units occupied. Tower 2, at 114 units, is due to be complete in March or April. Still, developers say units that are priced right are selling. And Intracorp is not lowering the original prices on the units, which are priced from $500,000.”
The Berkeley Daily Planet. “Troubled Oakland homeowners packed the floor and gallery of the Oakland City Council chambers Saturday morning to gather information from city, state, and national officials and private home counseling organizations on how to keep their dwellings from going into foreclosure.”
“Folding chairs had to be brought into the council chambers to accommodate the crowd, and it was standing-room only along the back walls.”
“One woman asked advice on how she could hold off the pending foreclosure sale of her longtime home. The sale was scheduled for Tuesday, giving the woman only one more business day to act.”
“After several suggestions came from (the) moderator and audience members, one woman chimed in, ‘Whatever you do, don’t waste your time contacting HUD. They’ll leave you for dead, they’re so slow. Your house will be gone before they come out to help.’”
Inside Bay Area. “Foreclosure auction sales more than doubled in San Mateo County in December compared with the same period last year, a new real estate report revealed Tuesday.”
“The local areas hardest hit by foreclosures are Daly City, South San Francisco, East Palo Alto, Redwood City, Pacifica and San Mateo, real estate agents said.”
“You’re looking at the most homes sold by auction in any month ever in California in January,’ said spokeswoman Ginny Cain McMurtrie. McMurtrie added that many homes that go to auction don’t sell, because the banks that took them back don’t lower the price enough.”
“‘The banks are having to make deep discounts, and take deep losses to sell,’ McMurtrie said.”
“For example, a bank could be faced with taking back a house bought two years ago for $500,000 that’s now worth $410,000, she said.”
“‘The banks I’ve worked with are becoming more aware of their own vulnerability, said Joe Rodden, broker in Redwood City. ‘They’re trying to sell the house before they take it back.’”
It looks like some even tougher details are coming out today on the data yesterday. For instance, from the NCT piece:
‘Another report released Tuesday reported similar market softness, as sales of new homes throughout California in November tumbled 55 percent year over year, to 2,968, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a research firm based in Costa Mesa.’
As I recall, they were either building or selling north of 200,000 houses/year during the boom. This is a meltdown, IMO. And how about this:
‘According to DataQuick, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin. Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.’
–
“as sales of new homes throughout California in November tumbled 55 percent year over year”
Vow! This despite all the incentives? It would be interesting if total new homes completed data is available.
In three more months we will start to get the spring 2008 data and that should put to rest any talk of a bottom.
BTW, how many here agree with my call that the recession began in 2007Q4?
Jas
With all due respect, I think that Arizona’s recession started in 2006.
Gotta hand it to you Jas…
Who on this blog could have ever figured that out?
ROTFL
No fair! I didn’t expect to have my drink snorted up my nose this early in the thread.
4Q2007 was the start of the recession. Now its snowballing. We all know this won’t be a short 6 month recession either.
The ‘real estate gold rush’ is over.
Now to see where the pieces fall.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Not to be a contrarian, but I put an offer in on a U.S. Bank 2006 RMBS owned home Monday. Priced at $330,000, listed on Sunday. It sold in March 2006 for $717,000. I offered $325,000. There were 12 offers, some over listing, the high at $345,000. That is indicative of a bottom. I bought the same model 2 months ago for $390,000 (sold in April 2006 for $685,000(. My cost is the equivalent of rent, after tax, so I thought $330,000 was a screaming deal. Evidently, so did 12 other people. The best homes in good locations with solid upgrades are selling if they are priced right. Of course there are 18 other foreclosed homes in the same neighborhood (lesser quality) and only 4 are under contract. It is an intersting market to say the least.
To paraphrase Bill Clinton’s political consultant James Carville, “It’s the price, stupid”!!!
Explain to me how you’re being a contrarian? If your anecdote doesn’t describe a real estate bust (wannabe vultures and all) I don’t know what does.
Why does your cost being the equivalent of rent make it a “screaming deal”? A reasonable deal, maybe. I think it suggests there WILL be screaming deals at some point, though, when we can buy for much less than rental equivalent.
I remember buying Silver @ $27 an ounce back in 1980 after it’d peaked @ $48, thinking what a screaming deal I got…
It’s more than 50% off the peak price, and Jingle was not alone in thinking that’s a good price. The smart vultures strike while everyone else is thinking that prices are still going down. And the good stuff always goes first.
Reporting of price declines started long after the actual declines had begun. The same will be true of the flattening, as well as the eventual (albeit slow) increases.
And do your formulas for success factor in a certain recession, and quite possible depression?
Future Vulture:
To clarify, my cost of the house I purchased at $390,000 was the equivalent of rent, after tax. That is why I thought $330,000 was a screaming deal. It is below the cost of rent (again, after homeownership tax benifits). I bet the house listed for $330,000 eventually goes for $375,000. The realtor sent out twelve e-mails saying there were twelve offers and the highest was $345,000. The seller wants best and final offers submitted. They will probably counter those offers.
As I said, good real estate priced right (over 50% decline from 2006) is in good demand.
Ex,
Good point. Rents are flat, perhaps even dropping a bit. I was buying this house because a friend of mine with a recession resistant job, because he wants to rent it. He is being foreclosed out of the place he rents now, but the multiple offers will take us out of the running. I do think there are some outstanding opportunities in the market for people who pay attention, know how to manage property and offer their residents fair deals and excellent service.
I think my post got lost, so here is my response to Ex, again.
Ex, good point. It does seem that rental prices are softening. So it does pay to be careful and consider a protracted downturn. I was purchasing this house for a friend with solid employment, earnings of 6 times the rent, but not ready to buy for a couple of years.
Future, the rental equivalent was on the house I paid $390,000 two months ago. The same model at $330,000 was a screaming deal. Buying at less than the rental equivalent (after tax). Evidently, 11 other people felt is was a good opportunity also. However, there are 18 other REOs in the neighborhood just sitting at higher prices. This the Carvelle slogan take off….
The BEST time to purchase real estate is when everyone says it is the worst investment in the world. We are not anywhere near there by any stretch of the imagination. As demonstrated here there are people thinking they are getting a “screaming” deal at ‘05 prices. Not so much. . . A couple in my office a few days ago surrendering 36 houses purchased to flip. 6, 7, 10 homes not uncommon. This has not even started yet. You will see “rich” people with their jaws agape who do not know what hit them. I know because I am seeing it. Debt=wealth. Too many people have been living this equation for too long and the chickens have come home to roost. Thankfully for me, I will be VERY busy for the next 7-10 years. . . (I’m thinking of picking up a vacation rental in Northern Colorado. . .)
Just the fact that there are people waiting in line and out-bidding each other ALREADY is bad news…the same sh&t is going to happen..people are going to act like complete j&rkoffs, out bid each other, screw up the whole idea of owning and home…and these same idiots are going to turn around and try and screw someone when selling…
How is this a better situation?
I’m with ex-nnv, we’re nowhere near a bottom. Housing bottoms lag recessions, not the other way around.
The party has just gotten started — pass the popcorn.
I don’t know if you want to hang onto that rent theory of yours…
LOL you may want to be thankful you only have one of those stones around your neck.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/real_estate/rents_flat/index.htm?cnn=yes
MR, I actually own 4 other houses, all rented, all cash flowing nicely. My vacancy rate over the last 24 months is under 2%. One of my clients has lived in the house since 1993! Rents have increased slightly each year and all the occupants are very pleased with their homes. I have 3 other people who have asked me to buy a foreclosed home they can rent at a good price. If you add value to peoples’ lives they appreciate what you do for them.
Noz says “…How is this a better situation?….”
The same Carvelle slogan works for you. If you can’t see the forest for the blog, you will stay sitting on the sidelines. Buying a 3200 SF house for $325,000, when the equivalent home rents for $25,000 to $30,000/year makes sense all day every day.
Please note I am not saying we are at the bottom or making any prognostications on the future. I am just saying there are some screaming deals out there if you stay in touch witht the market and be selective. This is GREAT news and much different from 2005, when idiots stood in line to buy with sub prime 100% LTV loans.
Please note I am not saying we are at the bottom or making any prognostications on the future.
Actually, you did, a few posts up:
I offered $325,000. There were 12 offers, some over listing, the high at $345,000. That is indicative of a bottom.
Remain Calm,
“indicative” = pointing in that direction. Nothing in my statements calls a bottom. It says we are headed in the direction of a bottom. We can all agree on this statement.
I just feel good about buying 20% below reproction cost. When we have to start building new houses, unless they give the land away for free, new houses will cost $80,000 more than I just paid.
JINGLE:
With all due respect, I think you’re simply justifying your actions through your own psychology. While I think IF YOU REALLY want and need a home, go ahead and buy it and do it through forclosures, BUT doing it for profit and flipping (as I strongly believe is the case IF you have 12 other bidders trying to buy the same property you were looking at) I strongly disagree to this type of crummy activity. It is PRECISELY this sort of fraudulent activity that has helped bring us to the point we are at.
And who says I’d pay $2500 a month for RENT? That’s absurd and stupid. I pay $1000 a month for rent. I don’t live extravagantly. I have no debt, I save (with my wife) probably around $7000/month. HOW am I better off buying even at $325K? I’d be no were near as close to my rent. Granted, I’d be living in a house but sorry…that simply isn’t worth it.
Jingle
Monday I put an offer on a house for $380k. It prev. sold for $509k. It is a reo –been on the market for about 4 1/2 months. I haven’t heard from the bank yet–Good luck to you–Of course after months of sitting–now the realtor(tm) claims there are multiple offers. Creep.
LILLL, let me know how it pans out. I will do the same. It will be interesting to see if we hit a “V” bottom, a longer protracted “U” bottom, or if this is a dead cat bounce and we keep heading down. All I know is I have a wonderful home now after sitting impatiently for 27 months. I saved $300,000 and pay the equivalent of what I was paying for rent. That works all day long. Even if the downturn continues for years. I saved a lot of money and send Ben $50 every quarter. That is the best money I will ever invest!
Realtors ™ will always claim there are multiple offers. Its a given now.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil–yes-the multiple offer claim seems to be a knee-jerk reaction. Emphasis on the jerk.
Jas, I agree for all of the outlying areas of New York City. I don’t know about Manhattan. The foreigners did flock here for shopping. Most of that was done in Manhattan with their Pounds and Euros.
Talking to co-workers, although our company is doing well, we are definitely in a recession. Now the job losses are catching up and that is weighing on people’s minds. All of the smugness from 2005 is but a distant memory.
love the attempted reassuring spin on price drops by never calling it a drop but a ” tumble ” … wheee, it’s just little itty bitty ‘ol tumble … just like ya get when yer tussling with yer kids at Gymboree. No worries, be happy! Just a ‘lil ol ” tumble ” !
On a side note this goes out to local Sacramento Real Estate wannabe mogul Julie Jalone, who just last year alternately mocked & derided careful frugal buyers as ” vultures “, when of course SHE was representing a seller, but NOW it’s all different … NOW she’s all onboard the low offers as a good thing in this “self correcting market”. (What a piece of work ! I know she reads this blog fervently as she has copied the exact style of this blog to HER OWN BLOG, down to the same exact colors. oh, brotherrrrrr.!)
Why not address her directly? Well, I have actually, several times, but Mrs. Jalone is sooooo above it all to respond to anyone who isnt a cheerleader for the industry. Mrs. Jalone would much rather posture about how successful she is (was)? by posting hundreds of personal pics of her & friends taking a limo to Napa for wine sipping. What a bunch of Desperate Housewive of OC wannabee’s !!
(My my, so thats were the 6% goes)?? No socking any away for slow times .. nooooo just get all bitter n angry in the postings each week about how the gosh darn buyers arent getting with the program already because ya know these soccer moms do NOT want to have to eat crow by admitting to the husbands their business failed by too many copycats diluting the workforce.
In an AOL chatroom years ago (around 2002-3), I almost fell out of my chair when a barely literate barfly alcoholic female announced she was going to be a ” Relator “. No one responded or commented out of courtesy to not embarrass her, but that was the defining joe kennedy shoe-shine boy moment when you know things have turned.
hillaryous - actually
Hillaryous, I like that. Think it can be trademarked?
.BTW, how many here agree with my call that the recession began in 2007Q4
Seeing from my ground level view yes it started sometime after sept 07. Not exactly precise as U cannot pinpoint the exact nature of when recessions start but U have to observe activity in malls, local stores, general grumpiness in the local populace, upticks in flareups and tempers in the sidewalks and streets, ect. I have noticed these things since after labor day holiday . Aslo employees in such major retailers as walmart, home depot, target often seem to to outnumber actual customers.
Also I have noticed more and more for lease signs pinned on empty commercial bldgs and storefronts.
Jas
I am note disagreeing with you but Dec 06, while in Belize I spoke with restaurant owner who said US customers had cut way back on booze and dessert.
Customers cut booze and desert about 18 months before prices slide.
So december 06 translates to a Belize downturn… this summer. Of course, I didn’t take into acount that the restaurant owner had probably seen the trend for bit…
Got popcorn?
Neil
I think we are already firmly in the grasp of a recession. Inflation is only definable in the rear view mirror. Once some time goes by they will look at real economic activity adjusted for inflation and the start will be late 06.
Ahhh… and the simple graphs of housing prices going down will look nice and smooth.
First wave is of defaults is about finished. This spring and summer will set comps even lower. Then another wave of defaults.
Each wave will be spread out more than the proceeding one.
As I recall, they were either building or selling north of 200,000 houses/year during the boom. This is a meltdown,
Not a meltdown according to The Signal here in Valencia, according to them “Now is the time to buy”
http://www.the-signal.com/?module=displaystory&story_id=52744&format=html
That is awesome. total Realtor shill. that too editorial. wow
Ah, but that’s December. The spring will tell.
Perhaps after the spring, those holding the foreclosures, at least, will give up and start selling at market. Then we’ll see price moves, not just sales volume moves.
Here’s hoping, but unless they are in foreclosure they just don’t get it.
This moron near me has been trying to rent the same house for $10K a month for MONTHS. He bought it for $800K in 2004. Greedy SOB. I love the addition of “owner will consider selling”. The Realtor should add “to anyone stupid enough to essentially buy this guys house for him by renting it for 6.5 years”.
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/apa/539878229.html
Wow just wow. $20,000 deposit required. Right.
Here is another wow that was in the same section you posted from craigslist. $10,000 for a seven day/six night rental in Phoenix ……..the Super Bowl Special.
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/apa/540746182.html
“Will rent to the first set of MATURE RESPONSIBLE ADULTS able to take advantage of this offer.”
WTF!
Anyone responding to such an “offer” is by definition neither mature nor responsible. Unless they just want to give the author a personal FU.
Super Bowl Special…?
The BIG game in towns all over the US is liable to the Blood Bath Special but don’t tell them. It would be like the little critters discribed in The Silence of the Lambs.
“Grab a House and Run Clarice…RUN!”
I notice it says Super Bowl / FBR Open. Is the FBR Open a golf tournament, or is the FBR having an open house?
$10,000/month and no pool in the back yard?!
I just sent a sympathy note to the agent…he looks pretty beaten up…what a freakin do&chbag the owner must be.
I love how no pets are allowed for that price. It truly is a real ‘joule’. What does that mean by the way. It must be incredibly inefficient.
you MUST read this one from No.SD county…smok’in crack for sure…
You must read this one from No.SD county..smok’in crack for sure…..
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/apa/533178236.html
Most certainly smok’in crack. Must clean pool? $500 of you rent payment goes towards home improvement which apparently the renters must perform?
This reminds me of a woman I recently called who was advertising a car for sale. Her asking price was about $1000 above the best Blue Book value. When I asked her why she said that she had recently hit a speed bump at high speed which caused some damage. She made the repair but the $1000 was needed to recoup the repair costs.
There are a lot of very strange people out there.
Wow, they could build a right nice circus with a “contractor” family.
HAHAHA
ROFLMAO. Tears, laughing so hard…
HAHAHAHAH
Here are snippets from the LB press Telegram article on dwtn LB hi-rise developments:
‘Even condo projects that were ahead of the real estate slowdown have felt the pinch. Such is the case with developers of West Ocean, a pair of sleek new towers at 400 Ocean Blvd…Tower 1 is complete, with 67 of the 132 units occupied. Tower 2, at 114 units, is due to be complete in March or April.
Have watched those twin towers go up last three years. They actually got a 50 % occupancy rate already on tower 1 ? Shocking! May check them out just for kicks as i haven’t been down there recently. I don’t know what they went for but as far as location it is not half-bad. The New pike and harbor walk right at doorstep , pine ave fun zone and eateries 3 blocks away, and ocean blvd a decent dwtn Walk by lowly LA standards. Commuting into out of dwtn LB is a problem with the truck-traffic clogged LB fwy however.
There are problems living in dwtn LB which the article does not delve into, deep-rooted problems which i will not expound on at the moment as i have banged the drum repeatly in past postings on the myrid problems of dwtn LB, or entire LB city for that matter. I really get tired of beating this dead horse.
Where the heck is the view? All I see is a postage stamp backyard with high fence. For $10,000 month I don’t want to walk down to the corner and plant my lawn chair on the curb to get a view.
The “view” is their neighbor’s beat-up RV parked right in front of their house.
No kidding. This is the nicest house on the block. Granted, the street is nicer than most in my area, but millionaires they are not.
Where the heck is the view?
How could you miss the view from the dining room of the beautiful desert?
Good one, jj, I never saw it on Craigslist because that rent is WAY above the parameters I usually search for. But this guy is not the only one suffering. There are two houses for rent in my area that I’ve looked into. One has an asking rent of $4,900 and I have been seeing the “for lease” sign for at least 6 months. This weekend they did an open house together with an estate sale and I guess that was a good excuse to “relist” it so now the setup has a listing date of 1/8. The other has had the sign for at least 2 months with an asking of 4,700. I really don’t know how to approach this people and offer them maybe $3,200 for rent. Any suggestions?
Just tell them “look, if you would ever consider a good renter with excellent references, a stable job, and willing to take care of the place, I’d be willing to move in for around $3200 a month. It would be a shame to see you bleeding mortgage payments each month for too long”.
Trust me, it is better for him/her to bleed only $1700+ a month than to bleed the whole $4900+…and they know it.
And then wait for the phone to ring. It will.
Thanks, arroyogrande, I’ll let you know how the newly self-assured and formerly timid Cassiopeia fares in this market. My poor hubby is still adjusting, but he is happy because I keep him fed, I let him watch all the games and he thinks he married a nice lady and got a financial genius as part of the bargain. It took some cajoling, but we bought metals and CD’s, got out of many stocks and are better braced for what’s coming. Now, if I could get us out of our 2 bedroom rented condo for a reasonable price I think I deserve a that cashmere blanket I’ve been lusting for.
Hey Cass:
Don’t rent from FB; you’ll just end up getting a 30-day notice from the foreclosing bank.
One of the houses is definitely an FB, the other I’m not sure. I checked on Zillow and there are no recent sales recorded, it looks as if has been owned by the same person for a long time though their might be a HELOC, who knows. But you are right, that is a major risk and one of the reasons we haven’t taken the leap.
Cassio: cashmere blankets aren’t so great now that they have such nice soft acrylic, fuzzy, warm blankets. And you can throw them in the wash. And they’re cheap!
Cool house. He might be able to get $3,500.
The pr!ck is asking $10,000 and he won’t even let you bring your little doggie to live in it? I hope this guy gets run over by a Mack truck. My first post on this subject was too hostile to get through the Anger Filter.
I’ve seen a few of those on Bay Area craigslist too. One for $8,000/mo, 1 for $10,000/mo, and 1 for $15,000/mo! For those prices, they couldn’t even manage to post digital images of their stupid houses so I could see what I’d be getting (only the 8k house had a pic).
I think one of them came back later trying to break up their “mansion” into two floors. I thought that was really impractical because the living room actually spanned both the upper and lower floor, so you wouldn’t have much privacy if you were the downstairs people. It wasn’t really a mansion anyway, just a large house with no yard falling off the edge of a cliff.
If you have that kind of money to spend on a rental, here’s the view you get for a little bit more:
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/apa/541144729.html
Or if you’re more of a Beverly Hillbilly, for only $24,500 a month you have this place in BH with a See-Ment Pond out back:
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/apa/534547534.html
Total lunacy, of course. I remember in the 1980s some friends were buying and renovating Paul Williams mansions like trading cards for low dollars, and those houses put all of these to shame.
” you have that kind of money to spend on a rental, here’s the view you get for a little bit more:”
Super rich Mailbu-ians will not rent nor buy so close to the outskirts of Santa Monica/LA . They will locate way west past Malibu colony. Less crowded and cleaner the farther west U go along PCH. BTW the communities of topanga and fernwood up the top of ridge along rte 27 have a lot of oldtime trailer park types and hippies, just like laurel canyon.
How ’bout putting some drywall on the ceiling, douchebag? Are you trying to get all hip and architectural on me by exposing the sewer pipes above, or did you just run out of money?
Mar Vista?? 10k a month??
bwwwwaaaahhhhhhhaaaaaaa
My thoughts exactly. People are insane and have somehow decided that Mar Vista Hill is “the” new place to be. Once you go S. of Venice, it’s nothing but illegals. You can’t send your kids to the middle or high schools in the area. It’s so congested that the quickest commuting streets are through neighborhoods. Most of the existing residents are older or blue collar. I could go on…
I don’t know if I should cheer this data of fear it. Every time I read a bad piece of data I wonder just how desperate our government is going to get, and what crazy crap they are going to pull. A slow steady drop might be the best outcome.
Just wait, the government “solutions” are going to be terrible…..moratoriums on foreclosures, relaxation of the FDIC rules making banks unload properties, federal “grants” to help people make payments, extortion of lenders forcing them to accept lower than market interest rates (no more resets), forcing Fannie Mae, etc., to accept toxic loans…..the Feds will do anything to stop this regardless of what it will do to the economy…..
They’ll waste the economy and solve nothing.
moratoriums on foreclosures, relaxation of the FDIC rules making banks unload properties, federal “grants” to help people make payments
Which will all lead to further tightening of credit and lower prices. I have a very low opinion of politicians, but even I don’t think they could be that stupid. Or could they?
And they are talking about stimulus packages. Is the average American dope not already over-stimulated?
While walking hope tonight I thought up the perfect stimulus package. Track down all of the ill-gotten bonuses and compensation from the gangsters that roam my neighborhood and send that back into the American economy. We would be talking hundreds of billions of dollars.
I wish people would realize that this excess money that Wall Street pocketed these past few years was really STOLEN from this nation. It was not earned. If it was we wouldn’t be going through this disaster now. The bank has been robbed and it wasn’t the tellers that did it.
All this talk about stimulus packages……..
“Which will all lead to further tightening of credit and lower prices. I have a very low opinion of politicians, but even I don’t think they could be that stupid. Or could they? ”
In My back yard my two doggies lay a lot of poop which i have to scoop up and avoid stepping on and foul my shoe bottoms. When i do step on a crap pile and have to scrape it and wash it off it reminds me of politicians, particularly CA politicians, which i put on the same level as that foul stench eminating from my poop- encrusted boots.
The gov - either party - will probably do more spending type stimulus because cutting taxes isn’t big on the agenda of either party.
That’s, of course, your tax money at work.
But showing that “one is doing something” is more palatable to the masses these days.
Obama was talking about $250 checks to everyone classified as “non-rich”…i forget what the cut-off was. An additional $250 check if the first stimulus doesn’t work.
The hope is to trick people back into spending, instead of saving (oh horrors!), thereby ’saving’ the economy. hilary had something similar, and G-Dub also has something in the works.
Again, the whole goal is to trick people back into being good little consumers, instead of actually saving for a rainy day (ie NOW).
Steal from the savers to give to the reckless.
Pushing on a string! People are already starting to freak out. If the gubb’ment starts handing out $250 checks, though, I have a suspicion it might help the banks because people would deposit them in their savings accoutns.
40 years ago Abbie Hoffman & cronies dropped 300 crisp new Dollar Bills onto the trading floor of the NYSE, and stopped trading for a few minutes, as traders scooped up the manna from heaven.
I’d do something similar with my $250
All of the proposals were inflationary in nature. The republicans were proposing tax breaks but nothing about spending cuts. So, the only way to do that is inflation.
The democrats were talking about extending unemployement benifits and more money for food stamps.
That is slightly worse… rewarding people that are not working at all.
Anyhow, we clearly need for the Fed to hold rates or raise them slightly along with a tax increase.
Let the economy work its self out for while. Write off the bad loans and get on with restructuring and work on new products.
Best thing the government can do is spend money on scientific research, infastructure (say better raods and power plants for lower fuel costs) and education.
“I have a suspicion it might help the banks because people would deposit them in their savings accoutns. ”
Whenever I get a state tax rebate check it goes into savings for property tax. And around it goes.
“I wish people would realize that this excess money that Wall Street pocketed these past few years was really STOLEN from this nation. It was not earned. If it was we wouldn’t be going through this disaster now. The bank has been robbed and it wasn’t the tellers that did it.”
While I disagree with you on a lot of issues, this is clearly not one of them. The Wall Street Gangsters raped this country. Agree with you 100% NYCityBoy.
I hope nobody actually believes $250 bucks will stimulate anything. LOL as soon as I heard about it I started looking at the prices for a new 3wood.
“The bank has been robbed and it wasn’t the tellers that did it.”
I have a biscuit for ‘ya — now who robbed the bank?
The best and only solution is to cut taxes greatly and to hold/cut spending and raise the prime rate to 5-6% in order to stimulate savings and to stop speculation.
“Vulture capitalists” will pick up the leftover. The recession will be very strong but will be over in 2-3 years.
Their policies will prolong it for another decade.
‘According to DataQuick, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin. Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.’ …….Mr Yun said…….:smile:
We’re only 24% worse off than a downturn that plunged prices 18% to 40%? 13,240 sales wouldn’t even dent the LA country inventory!
Then we have Ventura, San Bernadino, San Diego…, Riverside, “The OC”, and… do those sales include Kern County? Did I forget any?
Yep… Time to be spectating via TV. This has such a long way to go.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Real estate figures released Tuesday show that Ventura County sales plummeted in 2007 to the worst level since the market took off in 2002. Sales of new and existing homes and condominiums totaled 8,861 last year, less than half of the 18,563 deals closed in 2002, according to DataQuick.”
Am I reading this wrong? For it to be the worst level since 2002, shouldn’t the numbers come in just above those for 2002? If these numbers are correct does that mean that in 2001, the numbers were in the 8000 range?
does it mean in 2002 the sales more than doubled, from 2001 sales to 2002 sales?
or is it that it is worse than 2001, 200, 1999,…… 1989.?
All or any of them are true. but not the whole truth?
Any one else from VC (Rob Dawg?) here who can get sales info for these years?
Update from Portland OR:
It’s starting to become apparent: there are more and more homes standing empty. Everywhere you look, there are “For Sale” signs. Some have a combo For Sale + For Rent sign in front of the house. Newer developments have a strange “Ghost Town” look to them. If you drive by at night, you’ll see maybe 1 or 2 houses lit up, and the rest of the houses are standing dark. It’s an eerie, ghostly image.
Even more alarming:
everywhere you look, you see new homes in various stages of finishedness. Most have “For Sale” signs, whether it’s an empty lot, or 4 walls out of plywood and a cement foundation.
As I drive by, it reminds me of the Mastodons, which were found frozen to death in Siberia, with flowers in their mouths.
It seems that there was something that stopped them, DEAD in their tracks, before they were able to finish their lunch.
It’s in the middle of winter here, and I have never seen so many half-finished houses, with just lumber and 4 plywood walls. Typically, your builders plan it so they start the house sometime in the spring, and they are done long before the bad weather starts. Now, you see abandoned projects all over the place, with just piles of lumber and no one there.
We have non-stop rain and cold weather during the winter. I’m not sure how long these housing “shells” can last.
Whereabouts in PDX are you? I am in Tualatin out to Newberg/south Hillsboro. I’ve seen some of this in Newberg - no spec houses being built.
Hi, wow you’re close!
We’re in Lake Oswego. I’ve started taking a close look when I’m out running errands. Also in Pdx suburbs, it’s becoming more obvious.
What’s it like in Tualatin?
Ummm… Crawfish
I love Portland and seriously considered moving there in ‘05. I looked at the condos downtown ($450K 2/2) Unbelievable! Also looked at SFR and condos in Beaverton, Tigard and Corvalis. The prices were just completely out of touch with reality given the unemployment rate and the OR economy. I still think about visiting OR but have no plans of buying there any time soon. Thank you for posting!
Interesting…you used to only see that south of the border. I recall hearing that if you don’t finish building a house in Mexico you never have to pay property tax.
–
“‘They think they can buy houses cheaper,’ Smith said. ‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
I bet such a home was selling for $200,000 in 1999 when the economy was booming and the unemployment rate was at multi-decades low. I know of examples like that, e.g., in Simi Valley.
Jas
“The median sales price in Riverside County last month was $355,000, slightly lower than November’s $356,500 but 17.8 percent below a year earlier and the steepest year-to-year price decline among Southern California’s six counties.”
355K for Riverside? Well then, we still got a 150K+ to go. I think the median income for Riverside was around 50K last time I checked. So, using the 4x factor, it’s easy to come to this conclusion.
But everyone wants to live in Riverside, right?
What river runs through Riverside? I have never been there. I didn’t think California had a lot of rivers. I grew up a stone’s throw from the Mississippi so I’m curious.
The only one I’m aware of is Denial.
I think it’s the Santa Ana.
“I think it’s the Santa Ana.”
Allow me to explain the Santa Ana for our east coast friend. Imagine a concrete flood-water channel a hundred yards wide with a trickle that runs down the middle. Once, before the Southland officially became Californicated, there was a real river called the Santa Ana. I believe that it even had a salmon run at one time. But, when you pack millions upon millions of people in a relatively small arid area, every last drop of available water is exploited and consumed. Rivers don’t have a chance in So Cal anymore. Heck, because of So Cal, rivers barely have a chance in the Sierras either. Oh, and the Colorado barely makes into the Sea of Cortez anymore due to, you guessed it, So Cal.
lol! Couldn’t of said it better!
Is it kind of like the car race scene in Grease?
What, are you nuts? Answering that question is a flat-out admission to having seen the movie. Therefore, no comment.
Seeing Olivia Newton-John during the teen years was worth putting up with Travolta. You had the schoolgirl and the dirty girl look in the same movie. I am proud to say I saw the movie and I liked seeing Olivia. On the other hand Didi Conn could turn a guy gay if he wasn’t careful. That face belongs on radio.
scene from Grease:
Sadly, that is what came to mind for me too. Then again, wasn’t there a similar scene from Terminator 2?
That was in the sad, little L.A river - now a trickle in a concrete culvert.
Arnie rides his bike, and has the big-rig battle with the T2 in parts of the L.A river in south San Fernando Valley. Sherman Oaks and Hayvenhurst can be seen on the overpasses.
“What river runs through Riverside? I have never been there. I didn’t think California had a lot of rivers. I grew up a stone’s throw from the Mississippi so I’m curious.”
Anyone with a curiousity about the SA river read this:
If U drive a lot along the 91 fwy in OC and Riverside county the river channel runs right alongside it. It may seem narrow and insignificant from the fwy but during wet winter seasons that sucker will flood real bad. If you go along the 15 past the 91 heading northbound U pass over a long wide brushy flood channel and over a long 1/2 mile bridge overpass. That 1/2 mile wide brush belt below the bridge is the Santa Ana river channel, with a tiny 10-ft wide scummy ribben of water coursing thru it.
Farther up north as u get into Roubidoux and Riverside metro the bone dry flood channel is over 2 miles wide, a hugh dusty floodplain which is often used for siting extraction and gravel digging operations and noisy truckyards.
The SA river may be bone dry 98 % of the time and 320 days a year but during the short but hard occasional winter downpours it will flood big-time.
Just watched “Chinatown” again last night. Incredible film, even 30 years later. Tells you everything you need to know about rivers in Los Angeles.
I’m telling you! I saw 355K and I said to myself who the heck could afford this is Riverside? I just got a promotion and our income has risen to over 150K and I still think that it’s way out of my reach. I’m starting to think that maybe I’ll never be able to buy at a decent price.
‘The median price is lower because there are not as many loans available for upper-end home buyers who can’t document their income,’
Soon-to-be oxymoron: upper-end home buyers who can’t document their income
upper end buyers who can’t document their income = drug dealers.
There are pockets of cash-only demand which will hold up no matter how bad the market gets (including the one you allude to), but this will not stop the price avalanche due to the broad collapse of the lending market.
Believe me, the family members that I know who are millionaires, CAN document their income. Heck, I have one that has an account with about $8 million.
If you can’t document your income, it probably means that you don’t have it in the first place.
Unless you have an all-cash business, like prostitution or drug dealing…
I believe that prostitutes and illegal drug dealers can legally verify income. There is a line on the 1040 for other income - no questions asked. A tax return with paid taxes should be more than adequate for verification purposes. And think about the additional expenses that can be written off for the prostitute for medical care and the drug dealer for hired muscle.
I would also venture to say that the multi-millionaire drug dealers are more of a myth than reality. Not to say that they don’t exist, but that truly rich drug dealers are a relatively small number of people in general, and certainly a small percentage of drug dealers as well.
” would also venture to say that the multi-millionaire drug dealers are more of a myth than reality. Not to say that they don’t exist, but that truly rich drug dealers are a relatively small number of people in general, and certainly a small percentage of drug dealers as well. ”
Is is something like that. For every mastermind drug kingpin there are about a 100-200 lower down the chain , basically operating at the street level. The 80’s and early 90’s in LA area saw quite a bit of illegal drug dealing, and cocaine was the big thing back then. It was done at all levels and classes too, from illegal-alien crime syndicates to rich white college-educated professionals, though the latter were more often the end-users.
.
In my experience, lenders don’t count stock option sales as income, even though it shows on the w2. So even though my w2 income is higher than my wages, for payment ratio they only look at the wages. Therefore I could end up using a no doc/stated income and end up stating my w2 income.
No doubt there’s folks who used stated income to state it too high, but there are people who have a valid need for such a loan.
Bull. You know why it doesn’t count, right? Its because its NON RECURRING.
So no, there’s no reason for a stated income loan, except for FRAUD. Period.
I was just about to post the same quote…
Translation: people can no longer get loans to buy expensive homes they can’t actually afford.
Bingo! Which in turn means that affordability factors must return to historical norms. That being the case, it isn’t that hard to calculate where the bottom is - and we’re no where near it. I raise the Joshua tree to all these jokers who say you can’t time the bottom because it’s not about timing. It’s about knowing how to use a pencil and having some basic math skills.
Hater!
Damn straight!
There is no valid reason you cannot document your income. You may have to explain some anomalies with your income, but if you can’t document it you are either lying or you are a tax cheat. Either way you aren’t getting the loan.
“People who know how much they’re worth aren’t usually worth that much.”
Nelson Bunker Hunt
I don’t see it either. Every year I send in a tax form to the gov’t on Apr 15. I don’t dare miss it and almost everyone else is in the same situation. At a minimum show last years tax return plus current bank statements, latest 401k statement, etc, etc. Don’t have those you shouldn’t be buying anyway.
I’ve heard stories from people who have relatives that work for car dealerships. From time to time, little thug kids will come in with their baggy pants and a paper or plastic bag full of cash to buy an Escalade, or other hot with the hip hop crowd vehicle. I asked how they deal with the cash payment, because wouldn’t that trigger an alert that someone is paying in a large sum of cash. He said the dealerships run it as a number of payments. Say it’s $50K in cash, they just process 10 payments of $5000 or whatever.
Nice! And the same people probably complain their taxes are too high, never putting 2 and 2 together.
“‘They think they can buy houses cheaper,’ Smith said. ‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
I’m confused here. Is he saying we can buy it cheaper or isn’t he?
What he’s saying is to make sure your seat on the fence is cozy ’cause this is going to take a while.
Nah, he’s just pissed that da peeble can’t see a excessively priced 400K as a bargain against that unbelieveable 600K. Now 150/200 is looking better and better.
I think this is a thinly-disguised lie. The straw man is that you STILL can’t buy a house for $400K that was $600K two years ago. Houses haven’t come down 33% yet (except from wishing prices). He just wants people to think they have so they will BUY NOW.
That is correct. The only places where prices are down 33% are places like Manteca, and Manteca will be a straight GHOST TOWN by the time the dust clears.
What do you all think of the Supremes decision ixnaying investor lawsuits against enron type firms @ this point of the game?
I see legions of potential enrons, out there…
Congress came through with a law rolling back bankruptcy protection just in time for a wave of bankruptcy.
The Supremem Court now provides lawsuit protection just in time for a tidal wave of legal action. I’ll bet Moody’s Fitch S and P and the accounting firms are celebrating this one.
They also are rolling back patent protection, so if you have any great idea’s corporations can steal them and not have to worry about legal action.
Money can’t buy you love, but it can buy you a Congress and Supreme Court.
’ssshrubery will be gone in just over a year’s time, but we are stuck with his legal legacy, unfortunately.
Yeah, it’s all Bush’s fault. That Clinton administration was a beacon of integrity, and who ever replaces Bush, repub or demmie, will clean house in DC and turn it back to the days of Mayberry. Oh wait, those days never existed.
Except in Florida. Not to threadjack the CA thread, but today the insurance commissioner in FLA suspended Allstate from doing ANY business in the state until they complied with requests for information.
http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/01/14/daily24.html
This is big news. Finally, we have an insurance commissioner who has grown a pair and called a major corp on its contempt for the people. This should have been done decades ago, but better late than never. McCarty is my hero. More people in government and public office need to do things of this nature, instead of allowing corps like insurance companies to parasitize the people, which is what happened in FLA.
Hopefully, officials in other states will also grow a pair when it is needed.
“Money can’t buy you love, but it can buy you…”
A lot of cuddling!
A good time in Lost Wages!
or in the words of Ms. Tina Turner
“What’s love got to do with it?”
“A good time in Lost Wages!”
The best 3 minutes money can buy.
Now THERE’S an idea for spending the tax refund. That or JT seeds, I don’t know.
“upper-end home buyers who can’t document their income”
Ah … have we explored the money laundering angle?
Guess they’ll have to cash out some of their Cayman Island accounts.
1.
I was at a club last Saturday night in Agora (Ventura/LA county line) watching a cover band of the Clash.
After playing the guitar player was talking to me and mentioned/asked how bad the economy is in Westlake (Ventura/LA County Countrywide territory)?
I nearly feel over! When the guitar player of a cover band knows the economy is bad watch out!
2. Ventura County: A friend of mine called me today. His neighbor’s house is for sale again. The current Hispanic owners are going into foreclosure after owning it for 2 years. The Hispanic’s purchased it for 615K from the former owner, who owned it for 18 and sold it at the top of the market. Current price: 499K. My friend says the current owners have run down the house compared to the last owner. Why do I call them Hispanic’s: They speak little or no English. Their kids are picked up by a special bus everyday to go to a special school for kids who are not fluent in English. Drawn you own conclusions!
P.S. Guitar player said Guitar Hero 1 and 2 are better than 3. I did not realize how hard this game is until I tried it.
My son likes 3 better, but thats perhaps because he likes to play others over the internet.
Ever think of buying him a real guitar?
“Anything that’s hard isn’t worth trying.” - Homer Simpson
“But I was using my whole a$$” - Homer Simpson on his inept parenting
No kidding. I bought my daughter a real guitar and lessons, but “Guitar Player 3″ (or any version) will never darken my door.
Ever think of buying him a real guitar?
Been there, done that.
‘Rock Band’ is cool.
Dude, real guitars are for old people.
Good luck to California sellers whose prospective buyers would need to borrow over $417,000 to get the sale to work.
The silver lining: Today’s counter-trend GSE stock price movement may belie a plan to announce a future expansion.
Support unlikely for raising Fannie, Freddie loan limits
By Michael R. Crittenden
Last update: 4:48 p.m. EST Jan. 16, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Allowing Fannie Mae (FNM: Last: 37.30+1.00+2.75%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: Last: 31.35+0.62+2.02%) to temporarily buy larger loans as part of a broader economic stimulus package is unlikely to happen because of opposition from Republicans.
“How do you get enough Republicans in the Senate to push the GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) into the jumbo market without additional regulatory safeguards?” said Jaret Seiberg, a financial-services analyst at Stanford Group Co.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/support-unlikely-raising-fannie-freddie/story.aspx?guid=%7B86F480D1%2DB43D%2D4775%2D8CA6%2D25B364C01F67%7D
The Repubelicans finally do something right. I’m sure it is for the wrong reasons. Both parties suck.
–
‘We’re just searching for that bottom, and we need a very large searchlight for that. We’re just not seeing it.’
I think that you are using a wrong tool where none is needed. You don’t need a searchlight while falling to see the bottom. You know it when you get there in pitch dark. In the meanwhile, relax and enjoy the thrill of the fall.
Jas
I feel for the bottom with a Joshua tree, and I know when I’ve hit it by the unmistakable squeal.
Now now… A searchlight will work. So would Napalm. That is, assuming it gets to the bottom faster than you do.
(You being the FB or Realtor.)
The problem with a searchlight, is that you have to be close enough to see what it reflects off of… We’re not there yet.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Hey, listen here
Now your mortgages and homes
I’ve got stiffness in your bones
Ain’t no beauty queens in this locality (I tell you)
Oh, but I still get my pleasure
Still get my greatest treasure
Heap big woman you gonna make a big man out of me
Oh, you gonna take me home tonight (please)
Oh, down beside that red firelight
Oh, you gonna let it all hang out
Fat Bottomed girls you make the rockin world go round
Get on your bikes and ride
Fat Bottomed girls
“According to DataQuick, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin. Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.”
December 1990 was just the beginning of the end of the late 1980’s L.A. housing bubble, to give you an idea of contrast.
This housing bubble is nationwide and worldwide, in comparison…
“‘They think they can buy houses cheaper,’ Smith said. ‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
I guess that means they can buy it cheaper. As I sit on the side lines with Neil eating my caramel coated extra buttery 1200 calorie popcorn with a side order of Cashews and pistachios, it seems that the show is about to begin. Waitress another beer please? Lienie’s Big Butt.
lol. Yes, We’ve moved off the sidelines into the sports bar. There isn’t a chance I’m getting off my climate controlled seat into this game for a long time.
Popcorn anyone?
Neil
The bar in town occasionally puts up on it’s marquee…
“Free Beer on Thursdays”
They’re closed on Thursdays, by the way.
haha one of my ex-bosses (VP of operations) bought a house in Simi right before I left in 2006. Sinaloa Highlands I think.
Nice guy but Inept , lost his job to boot. He must be sooooooo screwed.
Yeah, but 400K is still a lot of money if you’re only making 100K a year.
My offer was accepted to buy a spec home built in RSF. I lowballed him about 60% below his asking price. We settled on 40-50% below. I expect that my risk is still another 50-70%. But I dont think I can build a home like this on 5 acres near the ocean for less than what I paid, unless their is massive deflation, which is still possible. Regardless, after selling the entire RE portfolio in fall of 2004, we need a home to live in without the headaches. Also, as part of my total portfolio, I need to have some real estate exposure. After I took a retirement trip to S. America I purchased several thousand acres of farmland in Argentina and Uruguay in ‘04 and ‘05, and that represents the bulk of my holdings. Of course, I havent owned any US based assets since ‘04. But now I guess, I have a home but I aint too happy about it. Just a hedge against more hyperinflation. cheers…
Where is RSF?
My money’s on Ranch Santa Fe.
Rancho Santa Fe?
RSF aka Rancho Santa Fe is where the uber rich people live in San Diego. RSF is located in the North County and is infamous for the Heaven’s Gate mass suicide. It’s a little hard for me to belive he got 50% off asking in RSF.
I’d like to know sales prices, and comps for this particular house under contract. Asking prices don’t mean sh!t… especially now.
My, my, my, he’s slumming here on the HBB wit da regular folks. Must be a scared bunny.
What is “RSF” ?
Who is RSF? And to finish this line, how?
Big bucks.
Congrats, if you can afford it and you like it more power to you. I think you hit it on the head when you say you’re using it as a “hedge against more hyperinflation”. The way things are looking, the dollar aint what it used to be. Living that close to the ocean would be awesome. Waves, surf, fishing, cool breezes (Zonies love to think about these).
“I dont think I can build a home like this on 5 acres near the ocean for less than what I paid, unless their is massive deflation, which is still possible… But now I guess, I have a home but I aint too happy about it. Just a hedge against more hyperinflation.
I’m wondering… what exactly you are saying?
He’s saying he’s got a big house by the water on 5 acres, and lots of land in South America, and various other investments too. If you email him, he’ll send you pics of his wife. She’s a model.
South American RE prices were in the same bubble as US RE prices. You should have waited to buy, both in South America and in RSF.
Especially land, unless you are putting it to work.
Why aren’t you happy about it? A home in RSF is a nice thing, I think.
Sdsurfer
I could be wrong but you sound like we often refer to as a plastic banana. Give us some more details.
‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
And two years from now it’ll be offered at $200,000, and there’ll be no line at all.
Heck there won’t be a line for 5 years or more.
Shoppers went to malls but stayed away from open houses and model homes last month in what analysts are calling the worst December in 19 years for Southern California’s housing market.
Can we please stop comparing buying a house to buying a dress or a gadget ? I mean enough already. Putting $200 on a credit card is quite different than signing up for 500K mortgage. Shopping at malls is NOT same as buying a house. Please.
Furthermore, they didn’t even go to malls.
Hey……Hi ya Hoz.
What do ya think of my predictions during 2008?
DOW - 10,500
SP500 - 1100
LOL
Why ask me? I am just a simple country boy.
IMHO at least 37 of the S&P500 will go under this year. The problems with the banking system is just starting. I expect ~2,000 banks to go under. 3/4 of all corporate debt is still junk. There is no moneys available. In sum, you are very optimistic with such a high target.
The more important question is will my beloved Green Bay Packers cover the spread on Sunday?
test
Ok…………I’ll test it
Sorry Luvs, my post did not show up. Probably the weather.
Why ask me? I have a history of being wrong! There are at least 37 S&P500 companies going to fold, 75% of all listed stocks debt is rated ‘junk’, 2,000 banks are going to shut their doors and this is just the beginning. I think you’re an optimist.
The more important question is whether my beloved Green Bay Packers will cover the spread on Sunday!
Checked the Packers strip, looks a lot like our Australian National Rugby League outfit, if this is the one.
http://www.nflshop.com/largeImage/index.jsp?LargeImageURL=http%3A//nfl.imageg.net/graphics/product_images/p2803622dt.jpg
Ask Abbey Cohen -
Hoz-
Recession or Depression??
I am so conflicted about this weekend’s game. I am from Minnesota so I naturally hate Packer fans. The ones that live in Minnesota are the biggest a–holes you will ever see. They have an excuse for everything and they have the IQs of field sod.
New York fans are no better. The best you can say about a Giants fan is, “at least they aren’t Yankees fans”, although most of them root for both teams. All the little thugs love the Yankees. They are not as vocal about the Giants.
Conclusion: I will be rooting for the Central Division Packers this weekend.
Recession with inflation above 8% to try to save the financial institutions. There is no evidence of job loss that would suggest a more severe downturn. This could be the result of lack of hiring over the previous 5 yr recovery or ?
(with the news that is out I would have expected to see at least 3X these today)
Advanced Medical Optics Inc. plans to relocate the former IntraLase Corp. laser manufacturing operations from a plant at 9701 Jeronimo Road in Irvine, to one in Milpitas. The plan includes workforce reductions and transfers from the 128,670-square-foot facility. AMO expects to complete these activities in 2008.
Nanometrics Inc. in Milpitas is reducing its global work force by approximately 7%, about 80 people. This reduction affects employees in each of the company’s locations worldwide.
Performance Technologies Inc. reached an agreement to terminate the lease for its former engineering and manufacturing facility at 1050 Southwood Drive in San Luis Obispo, which the company vacated in 2006. This lease was due to expire in December 2008. The company has agreed to pay $505,000 as consideration for the early termination, and assign to the landlord the company’s rights and obligations under its sublease agreement for a portion of the leased space.
Todays filings -picayune. Confirmed ML’s last week were less than 20 for California - the same as in 2004. MLs are not occurring in many industries that had in previous recessions had major disruptions.
This is a targeted event, all the losses ended up in banks hands. However 40% of the economy is Finance.
I realize Jas and some others believe in deflation, they do not trade or own industrial metals. I own some of this metal, avg purchase $11.23/lb in 2006/2007 sold some in Dec 2007 for $43/lb to pay taxes on all.
Look at the graph and the current price. Screw gold, silver, copper and iron - old metals. Industry has not slowed down.
The only reason to buy is if there is a use for it.
http://tinyurl.com/2zb7hb
“Recession with inflation above 8% to try to save the financial institutions.”
Strange that treasuries are not pricing any of that ?
Maybe another 10-15% lower.
Inflation, as massaged as it is, is up.
Where will Bernanke go now?
sorry, rancho santa fe.
it seems that the jumbo mortgage lack of liquidity is effecting under $1.5M the most. The market above that most people pay cash but if there is world-wide deflation, then the drawdown on all asset values will impact this market in the same way. I paid cash. The builder is weeks away from foreclosure but he wants to maintain his credit. He will need to come to escrow with a significant amount of cash and that will hurt. It’s not a done deal yet but I have a 15 day escrow before he gets cold feet.
Make sure you get clean title. Builders in trouble often forget to mention they haven’t paid subs, etc. You sound sharp/wealthy enough to hire a RE attorney for this one, make sure he/she is paying attention to details like lien releases, back taxes, etc.
great job …i am also looking for something along the north coast sd or so coast orange,,,have cash offer glad to see they are out there
Yes, the uberwealthy will be affected last. You bought too soon. You do know we’re moving into a new era of Democratic (read middle class) control, don’t you?
PS:
The wealthy make their money by extracting it from the middle class. What happens when the middle class runs out of $$? The rich start squealing. That is also the precise moment that the middle class gets sick of voting Republican. One is only persuaded by “the moral majority” for so long.
Sorry, SDSurfer, but you’re a bit screwed.
The wealthy will attempt to extract money from wherever they can. Once the US middle class is poor I expect the wealthy to turn to the fast growing economies of the third world using the same money Bernake is now printing to try and save the middle class.
The fast-growing economies of the 3rd world do not have anything close to the amount of money that is currently held by the US middle class. This will remain true even during our recession. Furthermore, since their growth has been dependent on our spending, it will stop soon.
Guys,
What is DataQuick? Are they sympathetic to Real Estate Industry folk?
Thanks!
Wilson
Data Quick is a company that tracks real estate transactions in California. (they may cover other areas, but I’ve only seen their California data) They are independent of the REIC, and are usually thought to be pretty impartial.
“Data Quick is a company that tracks real estate transactions in California. (they may cover other areas, but I’ve only seen their California data) They are independent of the REIC, and are usually thought to be pretty impartial.”
I have followed datatract SCal for almost as long as i have been on bens blog -2.5 yrs- and they are indeed a lot more trustworthy and impartial with their data than NAR and CAR, or local realtor stats and their paid for local newpaper agi-prop rags. BTW I do not trust zillow zestimates and i do believe zillow is a creature of the realtorwhores.
They provide some free data to the public, but offer “custom reports” to those who pay for it. They mainly function as a datasource for RE agents, so they go out of their way to paint the rosiest picture possible. I often find glaring mistakes in their data, and the mistakes always favor the “RE never goes down” mantra. Their articles are written that way as well.
“The record highs were $432,000 in Riverside County and $380,000 in San Bernardino County, both set about a year ago. Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.”
- If you know anything about the Inland Empire you would have to agree that 3-400k is insane. Only the artifical housing boom propelled to those unreal heights.
Meet Jumbo, The White Elephant…
“About 22 percent of the homes sold last month in Southern California were financed with jumbo loans, a decline of nearly 40 percent from mid-2007, DataQuick reported.”
What (if anything) is there to support the $500,000+ SoCal market these days (which includes the vast majority of SFRs)?
Translation, I assume 62% of SoCal homes were financed with Jumbo loans in mid-2007. So with sales in half… what is the effective sales decline for Jumbo homes?
Coworkers who haven’t bought are all trying to figure out exit strategies from CA. In so many ways the ball is rolling and there will be no gaining control. It will be a bleeding of prices in 2008. But there will also be job flow out of bubble markets. Some will simply retire and cash out having won the housing lottery (assuming they can drop their price fast enough).
It hasn’t even begun…
Got popcorn?
Neil
Here’s more on “exit strategies”.
I know of people on the East Coast (NYC metro / suburban Jersey) and in Orange County who are leaving their respective areas, moving to places like Nashville for good jobs and a better quality of life (these dual income families in the 1/4 million $ range).
They admit that these jobs are not as well paying as where they are now, but good enough… apparently.
And I should mention that at least part of their reasoning for moving (mostly unstated, of course) is that “the company” is buying their existing house… because they can’t sell it right now and they want to unload the albatross.
“Empty lots and signs imprinted with images of lofty condominium projects are hidden in the cracks and crevices among many of downtown Long Beach’s rising and newly risen developments. The ‘build it and they will come’ vision that civic leaders and downtown proponents promoted for so long is incomplete, and if forecasts for the residential real estate market hold out, some of those lots may stay empty for several years.”
A guy and a gal are getting it on in the backseat of the car, and she utters “kiss me where it’s dirty”…
So they drove to Long Beach
I have to say I feel sorry for those old folks in Oakland who have owned their houses for years, obviously heloc’d, and now face foreclosure. I bet there was a lot of lender mischief/lying involved. My kid goes to college up there. As jaded as I have been about San Diego real estate, I was astonished a couple of years ago when I saw what Oakland ghetto houses complete with barred windows were listed for. Even more than those dumps in Compton.
I went to Cal in the 90s, and have been long-astonished about what the homes in the Wild West were selling for (deep West Ave, Shattuck, MLK). I lived in Piedmont after college, which was and is wonderful, but I could still hear the gunshots occasionally, and I always heard the helicopters (which always reminded me of that awesome Ice Cube song - I think it was called Officer Bird).
I’d have to into the wild west occasionally because my drug dealer lived in his grandfather’s old home. What is amazing about the home was just how well made and beautiful it was- beautiful woodwork, high ceilings, etc. Real craftsmanship. The whole street was like that - homes that were so solidly built that even after 40 years of being a ghetto they still looked ok (besides the total lack of paint and upkeep). I bet the McMansions don’t hold up so well when they turn into ghetto neighborhoods.
Also, thinking about the Wild West is reminding me of Flint’s BBQ on I think Shattuck, and my mouth is literally watering. They had three things on the menu, pork, beef, or chicken, (you could get a combo but I never understood why anyone wouldn’t order the pork). It was a tiny brick store, with nothing but a cheap formica counter, a huge brick pit, and usually a line out the door (where you would get accosted by crackheads asking for change and the other usual swindlers). There were usually 5-6 GINORMOUS people working in there, who were the surliest bunch you ever saw.
Some foodie magazine wrote an article on BBQ throughout the US, and Flint’s made it. They posted that article on their cash register, which essentially said:
“Flint’s has the worst service, it’s in the worst location, there are three choices of meat on the menu, and besides meat you get a scoop of generic potato salad, generic beans, and a piece of stale bread with. But damn if that wasn’t the best BBQ I have ever had.”
I have to agree, and now I’m starving.
“
Thanks for the BBQ tip! my in-laws live in Montclair so I’ll definitely check it out when I’m in the ‘hood.
““One woman asked advice on how she could hold off the pending foreclosure sale of her longtime home. The sale was scheduled for Tuesday, giving the woman only one more business day to act.”
Must be Heloc’d to the brim. Why even attend when your hous is going into foreclosure in a few days. Like they wanted something magical to happen and make their problems disappear.
I swear the telemarketers could call and I’d never fall for that crap. But there was some story today that old people’s brains change to the point they’re sitting ducks. I really can’t believe it now, but I wonder. My dad was pretty sharp into his 80s - I can’t believe any loan shark could pull the wool over his eyes.
There is no hope, there.
“Troubled Oakland homeowners packed the floor and gallery of the Oakland City Council chambers Saturday morning to gather information from city, state, and national officials and private home counseling organizations on how to keep their dwellings from going into foreclosure.”
But the man from hope, is there.
At a stop Wednesday at the Everett & Jones barbecue restaurant in Oakland, Bill Clinton listened to the financial concerns of homeowners who had been caught in the foreclosure crisis. Many in the largely African American audience were from a city that is home to the 10th-highest number of home foreclosures in the nation, according to Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums.
I enjoy all these new FB these auctions and REO deals are creating. Will see the same houses on the foreclosure list down the line at much better prices . A couple purchased a house down the street for 365k thinking it was a big bargin when everybody else was asking over 500K. Well now they still are trying to rent it out for $1500 a month which includes a $160 monthly HOA fee. These homes on a rent/price basis need to be around $150K or less to make a rental work unless we are having 2005 HPI rates, NOT.
The mindset is still appreciation. No true investor would do a “deal” until the property cash flows. This just proves we still have a long, long way to go.
Some anecdotal evidence from Ventura County: My cousin is trying to sell his townhouse in Camarillo (he wants to move to the city of Ventura). We’ve never had a bubble discussion.
Last weekend my cousin told me this quote from his realtor which made my jaw drop:
“I’m just slashing my price and trying to get out. My realtor told me too, because he thinks properties are going to be at least 20% lower by summer.”
Wow.
nitpicking….
“anecdotal evidence” is an oxymoron.
Cinch
Why are you surprised?
The typical real estate agent has 2 rules to live by.
Rule #1. Tell the seller that home prices are headed down and they should lower their price to make the home an easy sell.
Rule #2. Tell the buyer that home prices are headed up and they should raise their price to make the home an easy buy.
The salesman’s job is to convince the buyer that he is getting a good deal, and at the same time convince the seller that he is getting a good price.
haha Realtor wants a comission. won’t sell unless its priced real low. 20% lower by summer in Ventura County? Sounds good to me, prices really got way too high there. 10X median income for a mediam priced home. tell me when its 3X.
you forgot a few points:
Rule # 1.5 tell seller they are lucky to have offer/make a deal asap
Rule # 2.5 tell buyer there are multiple offers/submit full price or higher
Some anecdotal evidence from Ventura County: My cousin is trying to sell his townhouse in Camarillo (he wants to move to the city of Ventura). We’ve never had a bubble discussion.
Last weekend my cousin told me this quote from his realtor which made my jaw drop:
“I’m just slashing my price and trying to get out. My realtor told me to, because he thinks properties are going to be at least 20% lower by summer.”
Wow.
I know of one Realtor that has a good chance of eating this year. It’s that guy.
What’s happened is the realtor’s and the media failed to convince the buyers to pay top dollar, so now they are working on the sellers.
We’ve been waiting for this for a long time. The Realtors ™ are hungry.
I don’t think its ‘anyone’s fault.’ We have reached debt exhaustion and the defaults are undermined the banking system.
Down 20% by summer? Hmmm…. I was expecting that in 2009.
Its a little more agressive than what I though in 2008. Let’s see…
Got popcorn?
Neil
We know you’re the optimistic type, Neil.
“Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.”
History has or will have a way of repeating itself!
Look up the price for 1994, that is where in IE is going to be in 3 yrs.
Speaking of bottoms…………
I guess this is the “bottom” of the housing cycle - for HOV anyway.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1640068620080116
Nah, just became a partner with the bank. When the bank goes under so goes Hovnanian. The bank cannot afford the writeoff.
HOV was up 12% today. They should fail to pay more dividends.
Nah, it’s only a technical default - their stock was up 12% today.
HOV is still in play.
For the moment.
–
According to Radar Logic, the price per sq ft (PPSF) of homes recorded in 4 week ending on 11/14/07 in LA Co. fell at an annual rate of 19.2% during the 7-month period (mid-Apr to mid-Nov).
That is a big enchilada, folks.
Jas
Lemme know when they get below $100/sq ft.
And up until now, there have been a lot of denials among the owners with the “turnaround in 2008″ atittude.
Once these ARM’s begin to reset, the luxury of waiting will disappear and the knowledge of the bubble collapse will become common.
So, an additional 20-25% drop in 2008 is pretty much a sure thing.
“‘The banks I’ve worked with are becoming more aware of their own vulnerability, said Joe Rodden, broker in Redwood City. ‘They’re trying to sell the house before they take it back.’”
Living in Weimar, Ca. would be more historic, economically.
I live in newark - right off of 880+Stevenson. It is not bad, but not great either. Tis cheap for a reason…
Big V,
My sister and her ex lived there about 20 years ago. She can’t think of a reason why not to live there. She and her ex lived about a mile away from the Dunbarton Bridge.
Testing for HTML error.
Oh……….is that all
To whomever cares, I’m paying $375 per sq ft but 5 flat acres of land 5 miles from the ocean. I based my offer (partially) on peak prices from a home across the street from 2005. So even RSF is not immune to price drops. This house was getting no traffic after the August financial implosion began. $375 is crazy but the market in parts of the Covenant is around $700-1000. But it is interesting that this formerly invincible area is getting hit. Thanks for the advice on clear title. I’m a non-practicing JD but have someone working on this. That would sure suck to get hit with a mechanics lien.
Oh, so the credit crunch is impacting the higher end in RSF, then?
…I’m planning a “Survival Garden” should I not be able to get to S. America. I’m out of the Covenant so I can keep goats and cows for milk. I’m in the hyperinflation camp though which is exponential as we know. In which case, food prices have seen nothing yet. We’ve only recently seen an awakening of the Ag land market after decades of slumber.
sdsurfer:
I thought you said you were getting a good deal compared to “other parts of the covenant”. Now you tell us you’re not in the covenant. Please also see my note below about the wealthy getting (not) hit. Why do you say that agricultural land is about to get more expensive?
I meant to say “see my note above”.
His property is possibly located in Olivenhein, which is a community of Encinitas abutting the NW end of “the ranch”. Used to be rather rural, but now being invaded by McRanchonettes.
In defense of Riverside…It’s not all that bad. I lived here when I was young and hated it and was embarrassed to live her. 30 yrs later, I can say I’ve lived in worse places, so it doesn’t seem so bad.
Like Orange County, there are good parts and bad parts. We have a gorgeous view of the snow-capped mountains and palm tress everywhere. The school in this area is excellent (for CA) and there is a real sense of community. HOWEVER, I do have a problem with all the RVs in the driveways. Not pretty.
Most of the houses for sale are in foreclosure and many of those are empty. Bank Owned homes are down in the upper $300,000s while sales by homeowners are going for $525,000. It’s a joke.
“have a gorgeous view of the snow-capped mountains ”
Often you can’t see the Mountains because of the smog, Sadly its the Same here in Phoenix.
Looks like rents are dropping too!
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/real_estate/rents_flat/index.htm?postversion=2008011618
Hillary tans Countrywide CEO.
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/16/sen-clinton-tans-mozilos-hide/
This is excellent news. I think I’ll send this to the guy who’s managing my neighbor’s house. She keeps asking way too much rent, and nobody wants it. This article is a gem!
TIMBER!!!!
“Housing is just beginning to feel the hit from when banks first tightened lending standards in August, said Sean O’Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar. Foreclosed property valued at about $5 billion sold at auctions statewide in December. So far, about $3.5 billion has moved in January, O’Toole said.”
“‘It’s never been this high. We already surpassed all records by the third quarter of last year,’ O’Toole said. ‘And we’ve really been on a tear in the beginning of January.’”
“Buyers are still out there, hunting for good deals, typically foreclosures and bank-owned properties, said Kay Wilson-Bolton, broker based in Santa Paula. Bank losses are staggering, with some lenders ‘kissing goodbye’ to sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars on a transaction, she said.”
It is clearly time for would-be homeowners to start putting pencil to paper and cooking up reasonable purchase offers on the home(s) of their dreams. But don’t overpay to catch a falling knife! Much better to have a string of rejected (but realistic) offers than to overpay and get into a home sooner, only to ride the market down to the basement.
anectdotal but…I’ve noticed that the number of bank owned and for sale signs has diminished in neighborhoods like San Elijo Hills, Eastlake and Foreclosure Ranch (aka 4S Ranch) here in San Diego.
may be the winter pause….gearing up for the annual “Spring rally.”
Yes, it is the winter pause. Don’t hold your breath, sdsurfer, the market will not stop nosediving anytime soon.
dollar rally is a function of the FED not making an emergency cut.
AS the dollar rises, gold and commodity complex will fall, some might htink this is pricing in lower demand, but people are gonna eat and drive to work…demand is now a function of status quo.
So, what do the tea leaves imply?
dollar is gonna rally right up till the rate cut. and its gonna be a soft cut…maybe a quarter point. The soft cut, as opposed to shock and awe will be detrimental to the equities, but not cascading downfall….bear market is true, but crash is not so.
they have to get control..and this implies baby steps..
im still bullish food, and energy must have inputs…but the pain of food must begin to wane..service of debt must not be rewarded with too much relief, which implies a bond market failure..higher rates are in the cards….the debt bubble must deflate with a stronger dollar…gold may touch a thousand and oil 120, but if it goes that high……systemic critical manipulations will have gone too far out of control.
dollar rally its confusing I know, how can the equities fall, gold, oil, and commodity complex fall in the face of rate cuts and debt load… its makes the equities appear more expensive in the SWF currencies of percieved values…the SWF are the printers, not the US….this is the strange and complex nature of inflation..
Americans pay less on the scale when weighted against the power buying of the SWF’s….if you think this is false, imagine a world in which Americans destroy a business that an SWF believes that is too big to fail…and takes a large equity position.
I’m still saying .5
Core inflation still reported low
FED works for banks not for middle class America.
Vozworth:
I think you’re right!
Question for the highly-motivated detail-oriented researchers in the virtual room: Have California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Ohio ever before all been in a recession when the rest of the U.S. escaped with a mere slowdown in unmitigated growth? (Null hypothesis: No way!)
Recession looming in US housing-boom states
By Krishna Guha in Washington and Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles
Published: January 16 2008 22:08 | Last updated: January 16 2008 23:39
California and Florida – the biggest and fourth biggest state economies in the US – are either in recession or on the brink, many economists now believe.
While state-level data are patchy, the available figures suggest that economic activity is probably contracting in Florida and may be declining in California as well.
With Nevada and Arizona, they represent a new group of housing boom-turned-bust states that could join the rust-belt states of Michigan and Ohio in recession even if the US as a whole escapes with only weak growth.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3d4086c-c47b-11dc-a474-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
No, Professor Bear, nothing like the present circumstance has ever happened before, without the country slipping into recession.
And let me help take the blinders off of anyone who think this could be a mild recession.
There is NOTHING that the Federal Reserve can do in terms of monetary policy to keep the recession from becoming a depression. There is NOTHING that Congress or the President can propose or enact in terms of fiscal policy that can keep the recession from becoming a depression. The MSM is doing a tip-toe dance around a CORPSE of an economy, reporting how it is still warm, in parts. Right. In a few months when the stench is unbearable maybe they will report how “stubborn” the “recession” has become. Maybe in 2009 they will use the phrase “mired in deep recession” a quadrillion times. Maybe every politician will become an expert on HINDSIGHT economics and finger pointing. But you can rest assured, NONE of the politicians, or current policies, or MSM analysis or debates, will do anything at all to stop this economy from degenerating into a full blown depression. The body may still have some warmth in places, but rigor mortis is setting in.
A billion here, a billion there……………
Merrill Writedown Seen Between $12 to $15 Billion
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22690898
Oh… for the good old days of 3 months ago where $3 billion was the drug of choice for everyone, and $8 billion was so extreme that it got the CEO fired.
Suddenly, everyone has moved from pot ($3 billion a quarter) to heroine ($10 billion +).
Casey Serin is on Dr. Phil. His wife has served him with divorce papers.
(surprise, surprise)
He is now living in a hotel….
BayQT~
Hilarious! He is telling his whole story…the lies, his web site, casey hater web sites, the FBI….whoa!
BayQT~
I think it’s as stupid to now stand in line for foreclosures as it was to stand in line for homes that were super overpriced a year or two ago. All it does is create that frenzy that screwed us over a few years ago. I really wish people weren’t so freaking greedy and didn’t do that.
What’s funny is I bet alot of people who were making fun of flippers and such are NOW the people who are in bidding wars on forclosures…very pathetic indeed.
“‘They think they can buy houses cheaper,’ Smith said. ‘Think about it: The house you can buy today for $400,000, two years ago people were standing in line to buy it for $600,000.’”
Yeah, but those people weren’t real buyers. They didn’t put any of their money in, and they defaulted on their loans at the first opportunity. So last year’s valuations are wholly irrelevant. Real buyers will look at such old-school fundamentals as “how much can I actually afford?” Few can genuinely afford $400k.