Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 18, 2008
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
Hindu… Good one IMO.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/006200801161420.htm
Many posters have recommended this book but this review has pushed me into action. Ordering it today.
WTEconomist-This is a great opportunity to explain my New Amsterdam “nothing’s changed” comment yesterday. It wasn’t an upstate/downstate snark. The analogy in my mind was 93 New Amsterday leaders = men profiled in this book. Hudson Bay Traders= all the rest of us. The being abandoned part was figurative. It probably wasn’t fair for me to suggest that the men that made these decisions are only from NYC.
That’s a super book. Easy to read and very entertaining.
Now, txtchick, do you say that just ’cause he is super-handsome?
What is the name of the book? Btw, while I am posting. Txchick: Thanks, I do not post here but am a fairly active trader in US stocks and options; I always appreciate your mkt related posts; Do not always agree but value your opinion. Again, Thanks.
Traders Guns and Money
Throw in some beer and a pony in a sunbonnet and that sounds like the best party of the year!
And the pony should be named ‘Buttons’. But it should in no case be named ‘Shorty’, because ponies named ‘Shorty’ are usually evil little hairy jerks, in my experience.
Excerpts: “The maze of international finance is now almost beyond understanding. almost for him, completely for me
Governments throughout the world have forced people to take more and more responsibility for their own finances. For example, the company pension plan … has given way to schemes where you save personally and rely on your savings and investment earnings to finance your retirement. The general trend from regulators is to force sellers of products to disclose risks. The actual trend of regulators is to sleep at the switch until they get old enough to collect their government pensions. However, most people are not equipped to make these choices. The trend is heavily influenced by self interest [of fund managers & banking people as opposed to the interests of savers & investors]. The cheerleaders – fund managers and banks – are huge beneficiaries of the privatisation of retirement savings and pension arrangements.
Are you planning a follow-up book?
… I would like to explore how the culture of risk and extreme money games has changed our world in ways that few fully comprehend.”
The only reason people cannot save for retirement on their own is because of the manipulation of the interest rates and the inflation of the money supply. Without inflation and artificial interest rates the average purchasing power of an ounce of gold under your mattress would increase as the production efficiency of society produces more goods per ounce of gold.
Without the ability to lend out of thin air, banks would have to borrow from savers at higher and higher interest rates until the average interest rate becomes slightly less than the average profitability of companies (because they would not borrow money unless they could invest it to make a higher profit).
Our problem today is that there are too many people playing with Other Peoples Money and so they do not have the same risk aversions that they would have if they played with their own money.
The average Joe is more than smart enough to save for their retirement when the government and banks are not robbing them via inflation.
Instead of Joe giving is money to some fund manager who takes no risk, he should lend his money to the fund manager at guaranteed returns. Then the fund manager has to take on the risk.
The Gold Standard has been tried & found wanting.
The Gold Standard hasn’t existed for 200 years. The “standard” the U.S. was sort of on was bullied into failure by bad government policies. The major recessions during our “Gold Standard” years were caused by often times by the government’s desire to bring forth a federal currency (see 1867).
Considering that gold dollars had a relatively consistent value from 1800 to 1910, and that the paper dollar has tanked 98+% since then, I’d say the gold standard was not found wanting.
So you want our economy to run like it did 200 years ago? Fat. Chance.
What was found wanting about it? Bank failures? Nope, those were caused by fractional reserve lending. Our most prosperous years were on the gold standard.
What planet are you on?
how did it run 200 years ago? kind of an open ended, silly argument, IMO
The first and most important thing the government must do is outlaw issuing more gold deposit notes than an organization has on deposit, thus gold deposit notes must maintain 100% reserve ratios. It is blatant fraud to market and sell gold debt notes as if they were 100% backed gold deposit notes. In this situation no individual can tell the difference between a gold deposit and a gold debt, the first is almost as good as gold while the second is only as good as the credit of the bank.
In the free market the gold debts created through fractional reserve banking would have much less value and acceptance because of the risk of default. If a bank issued too many gold debt notes their value would automatically fall as the credit worthiness of the bank faltered. The only way that fractional reserve lending can gain any real momentum is by making it impossible to tell the difference between real gold deposit note and a gold debt note. If the average man could tell the difference, then upon receiving payment in the from of a gold debt note, he would quickly take the debt note to the bank and exchange it for a gold deposit note. This would greatly limit the average life span of gold debt notes and in turn the average loan term and profitability of the gold debt notes to the issuing bank.
If you want someone to hold on to any of your debt then they usually expect interest. Why would any individual hold a gold debt note from a bank with 0% interest? They would only do this if they knew the debt was 100% backed. Why do banks charge interest when you take out a mortgage on your house? Doesn’t your house back the loan? The answer to this is that your house fluctuates in value relative to gold and so the debt is not 100% secured. The bank expects interest when they lend you money that is not 100% secured so any individual should expect interest when the bank owes them gold that is not 100% backed. The amount of interest expected correlates to the credit risk associated with lending your gold to the bank.
In a way, fractional reserve lending is nothing more than the bank taking on interest free unsecured debt at the expense of their depositors and then taking a gamble by lending that money to others at interest. Reserve requirements are nothing more than a government imposed “credit limit” on the banks where the credit comes from the bank’s customers (aka the general public) which bears the full risk of default with no compensation.
In 1971 fractional reserve lending failed and the banks defaulted. We didn’t leave the gold standard because of its deficiencies for society, we left the gold standard because it was inconvenient to big government which could not run infinite deficits. The banks wanted to leave it because it allows them to steal from society. Remember, inflation doesn’t create nor destroy wealth, it transfers it from the people to the creators of money (banks/government). It is a violation of property rights.
What’s silly about it? You think the current situation is better with fiat currency that depreciates to nothing, high inflation, lower standards of living that require all adults in a household to work and destroys the savings of retirees? You prefer the financial bubbles, malinvestment, wealth transfer from the poor to the rich? Are you enjoying your modern serfdom?
The only silly argument is the one that says a gold standard means going back in time to horse-drawn carts. Society advanced for thousands of years with gold as a currency.
The Gold Standard hasn’t existed for 200 years. Yes, I agree. Of course that means going to the gold standard means switching to an untried and experimental system that hasn’t been used for 200 years. I know I’m dying to live in the 1800 economy.
Of course even this ignores the simple fact that the only way to transition would be for the government to simply repudiate all bank accounts. An instantaneous destruction of ~99% of the money supply would be necessary to bring the amount of dollars in circulation into some kind of proportion to the amount of gold that the government holds. That makes the gradual destruction of wealth via inflation seem like NOTHING by comparison.
” You think the current situation is better with fiat currency that depreciates to nothing, high inflation, lower standards of living that require all adults in a household to work and destroys the savings of retirees?”
Why don’t we bring back the European monarchy’s along with the gold standard. How about the monopolys of Rockerfeller, Astor, Whitney. They treated their serfs rather well, and of course there were depressions and famines on a regular basis for most of recorded history I say your take on the gold standard is revisionist history
An instantaneous destruction of ~99% of the money supply would be necessary to bring the amount of dollars in circulation into some kind of proportion to the amount of gold that the government holds. That makes the gradual destruction of wealth via inflation seem like NOTHING by comparison.”
No it doesn’t. The Fed has depreciated the dollar over 90% since its’ creation and is continuing to do so at an accelerating pace.
http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm
Of course even this ignores the simple fact that the only way to transition would be for the government to simply repudiate all bank accounts … That makes the gradual destruction of wealth via inflation seem like NOTHING by comparison.
Yes, I’ve often wondered how a modern government would get itself back on the gold standard. My little brain doesn’t understand all the ins and outs, but any scenario I can dream up seems catastrophic at best.
David cee,
Enough with the straw men. The gold standard didn’t create financial panics, but a fiat currency system absolutely DOES create inflation. Good luck saving enough ink-stained paper to retire in comfort.
Those of you who think that the gold standard means a return to kings, monopolies, horse drawn carriages, and everything else we had in the past mistake correlation with causation.
Central banking and fiat money are the TOOLS of tyranny and GOLD stands in the way of it (Even Alan Greenspan agrees with that statement!). The gold standard limits the ability of government to borrow and forces them to raise taxes. When they raise taxes the people see what is going on and vote for change. In the days of kings they would blatantly steal from the people, today it is done in secret via inflation.
There is NO way for the american people to control the purse strings of government because they can spend an infinite amount of money! You have to count on voting people in, but these people get voted in by promising to spend your savings via inflation!
ET-Chicago - It is impossible to get back on the gold standard by decree because that would amount to price fixing. In reality the move is very simple, legalize competing gold/silver currencies and start collecting taxes using that currency. Let the Federal Reserve keep devaluing the dollar.
Today our government confiscates competing gold/silver currencies and denies people the right to use what ever medium of exchange we wish.
People could simply buy the new currency like they do Euros etc. It would float relative to the dollar. Eventually the dollar will go to zero when demand for it dries up.
Another evil of inflation when combined with capital gains tax is that you are forced to pay tax on your LOSS! If that isn’t a strong case against the income tax, capital gains tax, and fiat money I don’t know what is.
Actually, for most of those millennia, horse drawn carts were pretty inefficient. Ox carts were what one would use for heavy hauling.
My reply was for tresho. I am in the sound money camp. gold, silver, a basket of commodities, Something to keep our government and banks honest.
VTD, now you’re just being silly. You’re free to buy as many Kugers as you want. You can certainly negotiate to sell your house for a good delivery bar if you so choose. You can mint silver into tokens of whatever weight and purity you wish. You just can’t imply that these are coins issued by the government. Don’t you WANT the government to accept paper of declining value for your taxes? You’re free to deposit double eagles in your bank and use that to pay your taxes, but I wouldn’t recommend it.
I agree with Virginiatechdan (and Ron Paul) completely. Competing currencies are the way to go. given the choice people will choose sound money, even the naysayers. I save all the pre 1982 pennies, and you don’t see to many pre 1965 silver out in circulation.
I agree somewhat. One of the longest running and most successful currecies was the tally stick, a piece of wood. What was its value? It was accepted as a tax payment. (Very simplified explanation) on a lighter note, the dollar stinks http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amVCFL1X76w0&refer=news
Jim a,
Actually you are not free to do business in metals. The government prosecutes those who try; Google ‘liberty dollar raid’.
Jim A -
They prevent you from using other currencies by charging sales tax and capital gains tax on transactions involving them. If the gold holds its values relative to other goods, but the dollar goes down then the government taxes you on your gain when you “spend” the gold to get more goods than the goods you traded to “buy” the gold.
The Liberty Dollar was a questionable scheme, but in reality there is little difference between putting a $920 sticker on a kuger vs minting a $1000 price tag on a Liberty Dollar gold ounce. So long as it doesn’t claim to be “legal tender” then there is no difference.
Snapfroze,
The tally sticks worked because the supply was “fixed” and they were hard to counterfeit. There was no fractional reserve lending with the tally sticks. It does not matter what system you use so long as the supply does not grow as debt. When money is created via debt, the interest is never created. This starts a cycle that of exponential growth that must end.
It would be far better for our government to simply print money interest free. When they do that prices may rise, but debt doesn’t!
Yes, I’ve often wondered how a modern government would get itself back on the gold standard. My little brain doesn’t understand all the ins and outs, but any scenario I can dream up seems catastrophic at best.
As far as I know, the consensus is that it would be difficult. There was a lecture at the mises university about this very topic that I found interesting. http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/MU2007/61-Reisman.mp3
It can also be found via this link http://www.mises.org/media.aspx?action=category&ID=17
Follow the “Mises University 2007″ and then the second to last link “The Path to Sound Money”.
As I recall, you cannot enforce a contract in terms of gold, right? I’ll have to check on that, but I’m pretty sure if you agreed (lets say it’s a loan) on an amount of gold to be loaned and then repaid with interest, then the borrower could legally repay you with dollars converted at the market price of gold at the time the contract was made.
In fact, I’m pretty sure there was a court case about this very issue. So when the borrower repaid the loan, dollars had dropped in value and he was able to repay in a number of dollars that would no longer purchase the same amount of gold borrowed.
So from that standpoint, the government has effectively made gold a very weak currency to trade in by their unwillingness to uphold what would otherwise considered to be traditional contract law.
Then there would be no fund managers.
Of course, that might not be such a bad thing.
“The average Joe is more than smart enough to save for their retirement when the government and banks are not robbing them via inflation.”
But then Wall Street’s economy would drastically shrink, and that would be bad for America.
I hope your comment was sarcastic. Wall Street is “thriving” based upon cheap credit that comes at the EXPENSE of 90% of america. Cheap money leads to bad investments and the situation we have today. The housing bubble, stock bubble, would never be able to get as big as they do if the banks were not able to steal from your savings (via inflation) in order to gamble!
With 100% reserve gold standard the debt in society is always equal to the savings in society. If demand for mortgages rises then interest rates will rise thus keeping prices in check!
America becomes VERY prosperous at all levels when Wall Street is not able to steal from the average man. Before the federal reserve, most companies were growing based upon accrued capital from the profits of their business. Today most companies grow via debt because the return on capital is so poor.
The easiest way to see the fundamental flaw with fractional reserve lending is to consider the following situation: Lets suppose that in all of the world there exists a total of 1000 grams of gold. The bank issues IOU’s for 20,000 grams of gold at 5% interest. At the end of the year everyone must pay back their loans, with interest. Interest on the 20,000 grams of IOU gold is 1000 grams of real gold. In other words, if the bank can issue IOUs infinitely then the interest earned on the IOUs can become greater than all of the real gold in existence. It becomes impossible for everyone to pay back their debts and the bank must foreclose upon any property offered as collateral.
Now not everyone’s debt is due at the same time and not all interest needs to be paid in real gold (it can be paid with an IOU that was lent to someone else). As long as the bank keeps issuing more and more IOUs growing at a rate equal to or greater than the average interest due then the game of musical chairs can continue, but if the bank cannot find anyone willing to take on more debt, then the house of cards must fall down and a chain of defaults commences. This is what happened during the great depression.
When banking is private and each bank has its own unique IOUs then individuals can check the bank by redeeming their IOUs for real gold. The value of an IOU depends upon the trust put in a particular bank. It depends upon the belief that the bank will be able to honor the IOU. If one bank fails then only the customers of that bank and those who accepted IOUs from that bank as payments for goods and services are affected.
If you have a central bank and every bank in the nation uses the same IOUs (such as the Federal Reserve Notes) then everyone in the country is in the same boat. If, combined, all of the banks issue too many Federal Reserve Notes then society is in the same situation as the example above: too many IOUs, not enough real gold, and no one borrowing to create the additional IOUs needed to pay off the interest on yesterday’s debt.
The only way to stop the chain of defaults is to motivate society to start taking on enough new debt to cause the money supply to grow faster than the average interest rate. As this happens the supply of money grows relative to the supply of goods and prices rise. Generally speaking, slow and steady inflation is much easier for society to cope with than deflation; however, slow and steady inflation requires slow and steady growth of debt.
There will come a time when society as a whole will be unwilling or unable to take on new debt. This can happen for many reasons, but the most straight forward reason is a fall in creditworthiness as the debt load of the average citizen, company, and state government increases. When society hits this point it will be forced to unwind decades of debt growth over a period of a few years. This is the deflationary scenario where cash is king because everyone wants and needs it to pay of their debts. When this happens prices on everything fall dramatically.
If the government becomes the borrower of last resort in an attempt to bail out businesses and banks as they fail due to deflation then you get hyperinflation. Either way, the average joe loses his savings (bank failure or dollar failure). These economic crisis create a dependent and needy society that results in big government, price controls, rationing, and general loss of liberty.
This is where we are today, everyone has maxed out their debt and the government is trying to bail out the banks. Either way they go the dollar will become worthless and everyone will lose their money. If you are hoping for deflation then you are counting on the vast majority of banks failing.
How come every time someone starts a serious discussion about a topic we care, like pensions vs private accounts, some lunatic goldbug always shows up and kills it?
max, “you’ve tried spraying, and they still keep coming back.”
max…that’s the same thing people were saying about me in 04 in regards to being a housing bear.
if you don’t get the signficance of what vtd just explained, sorry….you’ll regret your ignorance before too long.
fubarrio
Banks must be worried about credit cards. In 12 years of credit cards, I have never made a late payment. My cards are all set up to auto-pay, but one of the payment arrangements expired and I just realized it yesterday and made the payment before it became 30 days late. I received the following letter in the mail yesterday:
“If you are unable to pay now, please call us at XX because we would prefer to assist you with your situation. Let’s work together to choose the next step”
I made the payment online and called customer service. Looks like I lost my balance transfer, but no major loss to me. I’ll just pay the card off. If this is how they treat a good customer, what about the poor ones?
If this is how they treat a good customer
Nonsense, you are a crappy customer. The only business you bring them is the lousy 1% they make on a transaction.
Well I do the same thing…use my credit cards for vitually all spending (in may be a “new era” but you still don’t carry more than $20 in NYC), and have the full balance automatically debited from my account every month. People like me have traditionally been branded “deadbeats.” But…
They are getting those transaction fees for just about zero risk. My guess is about $500 or so per year. If they are operating efficiently, I’d bet $250 of that is profit.
Something tells me that a year from now, that $250 of profit is going to look pretty good compared with the massive losses offsetting interest booked never actually paid by FBs.
You are not kidding. In the past six months or so, all of my credit cards increased my credit limit without being asked. One card’s limit went up by a factor of six! I don’t use the cards very often and and pay the balance in full every month.
The really strange thing about this is that my financial situation, viewed objectively, is not that great! I still owe @$120,000 in student loans. And income stability? Please. I have a good job, and just got a big raise, but in today’s world that’s no guarantee of future prosperity — jobs can disappear at at any minute. Every single one of my grad school friends have had 5-6 six jobs since graduating 10 years ago — and it wasn’t by choice — and we went to a top five school. I have been lucky; I have only had to take a pay cut once, and my salary has since increased and is now at an all-time high. But my old roommate has seen his salary whipsaw wildly — he left one employer and had to take a 40% cut in pay, then his salary went up by 30%, then it went down again, etc. Now he’s working at Bear Stearns — he may be job-hunting again in the near future. I’d say that’s terrible, and it is, but we’ve all been there — again and again.
I see myself as someone constantly teetering on the edge of financial ruin. The last thing I want is more credit card debt. But to the credit card companies, I’m a good risk! This is scary.
I suspect that this will be true of mortgage lenders in a few years. I may have a negative net worth, but at least I’ll have a down payment. Compared to the hundreds of thousands of people in SoCal with recent foreclosures, sudden loss of RE-industry related jobs, etc., I’ll look like a rock-solid risk to the banks. IMO I’ll have no trouble getting a mortgage, as will most of the HBB’ers. It’s not because we’re necessarily such great risks — it’s that everyone else is in even worse straits. Not to be a downer, but things have gotten pretty bad.
Whatever!
Large parts of NYC including some of the best eating places are “cash only” (= cheat on taxes) but you must not get off the main island much or something.
I’d feel naked here without cash.
I feel naked here with cash — as if people can see it in my pocket.
I only leave the main island — the Brooklyn part of Long Island — to work every weekday on the other island.
Yeah, and you can be sure that restaurants that cheat on taxes aren’t cheating on other things like public health and sanitation.
I wouldn’t eat in a restaurant that doesn’t accept credit cards.
Well maybe they just don’t like the ~4% fee charged them by the credit card companies. I often make a point of paying cash simply to stiff the CC companies of this money. I figure the people providing the good/service are more deserving of the money, even if I don’t see any savings.
There are costs associated with keeping large sums of cash on hand. Business operators have told me it’s a wash concerning the costs associated with cash and the CC transaction fees.
It really depends. The best places to eat are usually small, family-owned, and not marketed at all, only with a couple of people waiting on the guests. For them all-cash is optimal, since everybody is either brother/sister or such.
Exactly, Max!
They’re not marketed to tourists either.
As for the sanitation/taxes link, I see no correlation. You must be a food-phobe or something.
I have started paying in cash even though I would see savings via cash back rewards. I always tip, err give a gift of thanks, in cash. The income tax is dishonest, not paying it 95% of the time is being honest to yourself and true to the letter of the law.
What is the difference between a “gift” and a “tip”. A gift is receipt of something for which nothing was paid. For something to be “paid” there must be an agreement before a trade where each individual owes the other a pre-defined amount of product/service/money. If you are a waiter and perform the service you are paid to perform then no one owes you anything. Without a debt, any money received is a gift, because it was not required! What is the difference between giving you a $5 bill after you bring me my meal vs later that day when I run into you on the street? Clearly this is nothing more than an interpretation of a vague law that a large number of people will consistently disagree with! (See Clarity of Command - the prerequisite for sound law)
“In 12 years of credit cards, I have never made a late payment.”
In 45 years of credit cards, I have never made a late payment.
“In 45 years of credit cards, I have never made a late payment.”
So Topper, is your credit card number: 0000-0012 ?
MyFico score dropped when I moved to a rural zip, and my last score was 784, previously 791. It was over 800 when I lived in California, and I was closer to “the edge” when I was living there; some measure of risk, huh?
LOL
“Yo credit card is so old it was issued by JP Morgan. THE JP Morgan!”
The world was still cooling when I got mine.
I read credit forums because I’m working to engineer a good credit score. There are a number of people asking why their limits have been reduced, even though they are 100% on time and have been with all of their cards. It looks like the credit card companies are pulling back in some cases.
Got this in my email. This guy comes off the mountain only a few times a year but 99 out of 100 times, he nails these and I’ve followed his calls since 1996 when he was on SI. He’s got class one buys on the dailys and weeklies which means you could be looking at a 2-6 month bounce off this low.
DONALD SEW has just replied to - Index Updates, Chat Announcements and
Chat Room Notes - in the Donald Sew’s Chat Announcements and Index
Updates forum with….:
***************
DAILY READINGs as of 1/17:
DOW/SPX/OEX - INTRADAY CLASS 1 BUYS
WEEKLY READINGS:
DOW/SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX/RUT - CLASS 1 BUY
The BUY-IN for the WEEKLY CLASS 1 BUYs is NEXT WEEK.
INTRADAY CLASS 1 SIGNALS are not a reliable as CLOSING SIGNALS.
seeya
***************
Yours,
Marketswing.com team
Is shortselling stuff or for going long?
Tx, what does “class 1″ mean, in this context?
He has class 1s and class 2s. 2s are “almost there” and 1s are his strongest ones. Sometimes they are negated but usually when they hit on the dailies and weeklies at the same time they are good. I have a similar system and mine and his usually are pretty close together.
Thanks, tx.
If I were to act on this, what exactly would I be doing/buying?
Thanks!
Buying Into China’s Land Rush “Once known for drab, government-controlled housing and ancient courtyard homes, China has become a land of multimillion-dollar apartments and soaring property values. And foreigners are trying to get in on the action…a 1,640-square-foot apartment with Western amenities in Beijing costs about $400,000, says Jones Lang Lasalle, while the same quality and size apartment would go for $520,000 in Shanghai and $190,000 in Chengdu.
Worried that real-estate speculation was leading to higher prices, China’s government rolled out regulations in July 2006 that greatly restrict foreigners’ ability to purchase homes. Under the rules, foreigners can’t buy a home until they have lived in the country for at least a year. And they are restricted to owning just one home at a time. …since the government owns all the land in China, real-estate purchases are technically very long-term leases, usually up to 70 years.
Still, Ms. Kalifa says an investment could be well worth it for anyone looking to live in China for at least three to five years. “There’s a major need for housing,” she says. “People are looking for investment options, and housing is a no-brainer.”
LOL, China. I think anyone from the US who wants to re-locate their business to China should do so, with the caveat that they many never do business with the US and that their citizenship be revoked permanently, along with their families. Don’t forget, there are a number of American “entrepreneurs” who would never have become successful were it not for the taxpayer supported infrastructure and legal system. And they’ve used these “amenities”, only to turn around and piss on the country and its citizens.
I think the coming disaster will force a wide-spread re-evaluation on the part of the US electorate of globalization and free trade.
I wish that were true. Much of the US electorate is so unaware of what is really going on.
They may become more aware of hunger, cold & poverty, then.
I feel completely the opposite, especially having just toured parts of India and Dubai. As a business owner for over 20 years, I’ve regularly considered moving my business for one simple fact: less paperwork or at least less enforcement of said paperwork. In India, I can open a business in one day. The laws that regulate certain industries are so complicated, and the government so obtuse, that they have almost no control over many small businesses.
Right now, it is generally large businesses who are offshoring, and for good reason. When the small business owners see opportunities to better their lives, the U.S. is in trouble, at least for the short term.
For now, I keep most of my business local, for the simple reason that I believe the U.S. business owner is virtually bulletproof in the long run. The country has access to decades of natural and labor resources when the time is right to utilize them. China is burning through natural resources too quickly, and I believe it will be the harshest penalty when they have massive price increases not offset by wage increases.
I do offshore some labor right now, but not because of red tape — I can’t find good workers locally, at any price. In 2007, I interviewed over 300 people over email, and about 15% of them over the phone, to work as my assistant. Good pay, guaranteed housing and travel, and many expenses. Of the 300 I interviewed, I only met 2 that didn’t have an entitlement mentality. I was shocked at the lack of talents, or even business sense, in the vast majority of the so-called college graduates I fielded emails and calls from. In the end, I hired an assistant outside of this country who can handle 80% of my needs. I’m even paying him close to what I was offering someone in the States, just because he does such a great job. It’s sad, though, that I couldn’t find someone locally, no matter how hard I tried.
When the average person has a chance to rise up out of poverty and overcomes the sense of worthlessness, it gives them happiness and a glimmer of hope. That happiness and glimmer of hope is lost in the U.S. I don’t see it in my friends who are multimillionaires, I don’t see it in my middle class friends, and I don’t see it in the poor. From my home in India, I met people at every level of the system who were happy because they knew they had an opportunity to make their lives, and the lives of their children, much better. Even the poorest guys pushing a 1 ton 2-wheeled cart uphill to Kemp’s Corner in Mumbai. They were smiling!
So, yes, I do believe in globalization, but only for two reasons: 1. governments tend to either be understaffed or underregulated, and 2. people tend to have a brighter outlook on the future.
I love that country. I know I see it from more of a romantic than realistic viewpoint but I’d really like to be there.
If you saw how Indians treat dogs, you might reconsider your romantic attitude. It’s horrifying.
Ask the minorities who are regularly slaughtered for at the altar of “democracy” (winning elections). Google Narendra Modi, babri masjid. Lot of turbulence under the calm surface.
Spike: point taken. It’s like that all over Asia.
Hey spike an tx you should how the Indians in my old building would react to my rottweiler and shephard
they do not like dogs especailly large ones
so i really did not like them and was not shy about it either. if you mistreat an animal or abuse it you are
dirt im my book no exceptions
Add India’s still-rigid caste system. WSJ had an article a while back about an “untouchable” who was stoned to death for trying to open a business instead of performing his caste-level job of removing human waste.
TIME had a report on the untouchables. I clearly remember the photo: a small kid sleeps on the floor of a very shabby apartment. You want to reach in and hug the poor bastard, feed him, or something. He has his life laid out for him - menial labor, early death. Really sad.
About the dog thing, you shouldn’t assume that your values are universal.
Go to Italy or France. They view the human-dog relationship as master-servant. The American idea that a dog can sleep with them is considered absurd.
And they eat horse-meat too!
“TIME had a report on the untouchables. ”
If I recall correctly, this group of people are also called “pariahs”. These social outcasts are the source of the word and its meaning worldwide. Considering that the word “pariah” has been around in the English language for ~400 years you get the idea that India has had and will have the issue for a while. It is a sucky situation, to say the least.
About the dog thing, you shouldn’t assume that your values are universal.
“Go to Italy or France. They view the human-dog relationship as master-servant. The American idea that a dog can sleep with them is considered absurd.”
You know nothing about the subject. Few people are as dog crazy as the French…they welcome dogs on trains, in restaurants, cafes, etc. But the Germans may have them beat…even Germans concede dogs are welcomed in more places than children.
How one treats animals is a measure of one’s civilized values…those that display barbaric cruelty to dogs cannot be described as “civilized’. Not by any measure.
Find a society that treats dogs badly, and you will find a society that doesn’t value human rights, that tramples on women and children and exploits the poor. See Asia for multiple examples.
>> good workers locally, at any price.
Bullsheet. Admit it. You want Jack Bauer at (almost) minimum wage. Like almost every other freaking employer in the States. There is NO talent shortage if you are willing to PAY a decent wage. Or don’t you believe in Free Markets? Mr. Free Market whines and then moves his business overseas when he finds that slavery here in the states was revoked.
>>Of the 300 I interviewed, I only met 2 that didn’t have an >>entitlement mentality.
You mean 2 people stupid and/or desperate enough to consider your minimum wage offer. But, oddly, they were dumb as rocks. As my brother says “Minimum pay = Minimum brains”. And he is usually right.
>In the end, I hired an assistant outside of this country who can >handle 80% of my needs. I’m even paying him close to what I >was offering someone in the States
Well, minimum wage in US works out to $14k or so. Which given the lower prices in India would be like $85k after purchase price parity. Oh wait, you might even be paying him less. Gotta love that no minimum wage in India.
Keep it up. The backlash against globlalization is coming.
My brother says, “Pay peanuts, and you’ll get monkeys.”
“Keep it up. The backlash against globlalization is coming.”
The backlash against globalization has been around a long time. Hasn’t worked though because closing borders to trade means closing borders to oil and other resources.
You want Jack Bauer at (almost) minimum wage. Like almost every other freaking employer in the States.
No, I want an employee who makes me a profit for the risk I take to train them, build infrastructure for them, and find work for them. Some of the people I interviewed figured they’d be worth $50 per hour including overhead and training costs. $100,000 per year. For an assistant. Who fields phone calls, runs some basic errands, and keeps track of schedules and basic cash flow. No thanks.
There is NO talent shortage if you are willing to PAY a decent wage. Or don’t you believe in Free Markets? Mr. Free Market whines and then moves his business overseas when he finds that slavery here in the states was revoked.
There is no slavery here that is instilled by capitalism. The only slavery we have is government-forced. Try to start a business today that is competitive — you can’t do it easily because the red tape is terrible. Money supply inflation causes malinvestments, and makes it difficult to figure if you’re really making money or not. Business regulation at all levels of government makes it impossible for businesses to offer realistic compensation rather than regulation-effected compensation. Look at health care, which should be paid for by individuals and households. Instead of having direct control over how you spend on your medical care, employers are forced to cover it as a FOURTH party, which removes incentive for healthy living and competitive shopping for care. Thank the IRS for that.
The 1099 versus W2 eligibility standards change every year, so I have to review my contractors to the tune of almost $2500 of their pay annually just to stay in compliance. Even worse, I put myself at risk for hiring 1099 short-term contractors because Illinois, and the Federal government, has repeatedly harmed companies for falling just shy of eligibility requirements that are impossible to discern reality in.
Firing people can be a nightmare, depending on what State you operate out of.
I have to steal nearly 9% of W2 paychecks to pay for “medicare” and “unemployment” — money that EMPLOYEES could use to protect against future impairment. The old adage — save 10% of your income for a rainy day — is ruined because the government already steals 17% of your paycheck,and returns less than 3% of it for those rainy days. They also prevent you from competitively shopping for unemployment insurance or shop the medical market.
Most of my employees make 20-30% more than others in the same industry because of my profit-sharing and open-books standards. I don’t hide anything, it’s all there for them to look over. More than once a year I hear EMPLOYEES ask me why I bother once they look at the actual costs of doing business. The risks (bad years) can outweigh the rewards (good years).
Thankfully, the tax code still does give me an advantage over getting a job for someone else. I’d probably gross double, but I’d net far, far less. But I’m against that advantage because it impairs others over their entire lives.
good assistants in the US earn $16-$25+ per hour. if you aren’t willing to pay that, you won’t get a decent assistant. period. full stop. end of sentence.
“I’ve regularly considered moving my business for one simple fact: less paperwork or at least less enforcement of said paperwork. In India, I can open a business in one day.”
Relocate immediately. There is no need for you to be here.
You interviewed 300 people? Maybe you should hire an assistant to screen for you?
No kidding. 300 people? That’s hard to believe.
He got 300 emails from Craigslist… he means.
Well sure. To this day I see job ads in the IT market for companies that want to hire an entire IT dept in a one-body-package. And they want to pay $35k/yr.
No one asks someone to run their entire finance dept, with the requisite certifications and education, for a pittance, but somehow non-glitzy jobs (but nonetheless essential) should be happy with the offer?
This guy is probably the same. He wants an assistant to run his life so he can glad-hand/wheel-and-deal, but he only wants to pay them $30k/yr.
With that parameter, I can see why it took 300 interviews.
Given the type of person he sounds like I would be surprised if 1 out of 10,000 would take the job.
Smug, pompous, entitled to have someone at his beck and call, have them drop everything and go whenever and wherever he wants (all that ‘travel’ stuff),….
Individuals pay for healthcare? When less than 24 hours in a cardiac unit is $35,000?? What an ass.
Another neocon greed-is-good type with that “it is the government’s fault that employer’s provide health insurance.” No it is not. That benefit was designed and created by corporations. Private business did it all by themselves and now that employees must depend upon it because of the exorbitant costs charged by private insurers, the same group that created the benefit want to drop it.
Good pay? Labor is pretty much supply and demand. You get what you pay for. If you couldn’t find someone who fit your requirements at what you were willing to pay, you probably weren’t paying enough. My guess is that there may have been a lack of benefits, which are moving to first or second on candidates ranking of importance. In short, good health insurance.
Which is not to say that you are not a good employer or to impugn you in any way.
I think anyone from the US who wants to re-locate their business to China should do so, with the caveat that they many never do business with the US and that their citizenship be revoked permanently, along with their families.
Don’t tread on me. Your idea of freedom is to nail gun me to a McMansion and live the Amerikan dream and enjoy it like everyone says I should.
American “entrepreneurs” who would never have become successful were it not for the taxpayer supported infrastructure and legal system.
How about you apply your solutions to the real problem: Big government. The USA founding fathers did not like centralized government… and the depression + WW2 created that… and it never stopped growing.
And you support the law? We only seem to know how to add more laws every day. Do we ever remove laws? We add 100x faster than we remove… there are laws on EVERYTHING. HOA is just another layer of laws, jobs require NDA.
Help fix problems here… stop blaming China. China doesn’t need the USA in the long term. Their long term is a lot longer than yours.
“Don’t tread on me. Your idea of freedom is to nail gun me to a McMansion and live the Amerikan dream and enjoy it like everyone says I should.”
Yeah, right. ROTFLMAO. Anyone who has been reading this blog for any length of time knows how I feel about HOAs. Please, really, relocate to China and see how long you have any sort of free speech.
Freedom is not what you decide it is. You advocate free speech but say that you would like to restrict global trade freedom. You want to be the equivalents of a business HOA telling other people how to do things. Hint: That’s not freedom.
It is one thing to encourage people to not buy from China and educate them why. it is another to propose that people they can not return to their home country and to revoke their citizenship.
Nothing in my Constitution about “global trade freedom.” Nothing.
There is nothing anywhere that ever suggest ‘global free trade’ should be considered a fundamental right.
Not in the Magna Carta
Not in the US Constitution
Not in the political philospohy statements of the Big 5 as they were creating the concept of the UN in themid-1940s.
Trade barriers have long been accepted as means of protecting a national economy.
More unthinking verbiage by the uneducated who do not have the right (no have ever had the right) to make money at the expense of the overall well-being of the nation to which they belong.
Do trot on over an move your business to China before you start whining about your ‘right’ to global free trade and to run a business without restriction.
The constitution does not define freedom, it limits the power of government. Government is only there to provide justice when your life, liberty, or property is in jeopardy. If all men are created equal, then it does not matter what country you are from. Trading and traveling with/to all nations is a freedom that belongs to the PEOPLE, not to the government. To say otherwise is to make the United States a prison.
Respect for property rights and the rule of law where the just powers of government come from the CONSENT of the governed is what makes a country rich and prosperous. I don’t know about you, but who would CONSENT to being told where they may and may not travel? Or who they may or may not do business with?
If all men are created equal and no man can have authority over another without his consent, then all governments must abide by the same moral limitations of the individuals who give the government authority.
You go, Dan! Right on!
In the 19th century the US had very high trade barriers.
Ann Scott: Trade barriers have long been accepted as means of protecting a national economy.
That sentence needs to be rewritten to be accurate. Here is the accurate version:
Trade barriers have been instituted by special interests to protect their position at the expense of everyone else, under the guise of “protecting the national interest.”
Ann Scott: More unthinking verbiage by the uneducated who do not have the right (no have ever had the right) to make money at the expense of the overall well-being of the nation to which they belong.
And when you’ve successfully run a large-scale business, that employs large numbers of people, and must comply with all applicable local, state and federal regulations, let me know. Then I’ll take your criticisms seriously.
Looking at opening up a bed-and-breakfast doesn’t count.
“Trade barriers have been instituted by special interests to protect their position at the expense of everyone else…”
————————
If by “special interests” you mean the citizens of a country, then you are correct.
Those who are “victimized” according to you, are the businesses who would like to make the spread between slave labor in third-world countries and high prices in developed nations.
Unfortunately for the “supply-siders,” they forgot about the demand-side. At some point, as you drive wages down (without commensurate reduction in prices), your customers (formerly high-paid people now forced to compete with slave labor overseas) begin to lose purchasing power. You guys left that part out of your calculations.
“China doesn’t need the USA in the long term. Their long term is a lot longer than yours.”
Possibly true, possibly not. Their reckless disregard for health and safety…polluting the air and water, the desertification of western and northern China and their contempt for product safety may harm them. Of course, with the shortage of females not built into the next two generations, they will have upwards of 100 million males in the 16-35 age cohort who will never marry or find long-term partners, which does add to a little social instability…a problem China has faced before. And if the decoupling theory, which is about to be tested doesn’t work in their favor, they may have serious problems with overcapacity. And of course, there is their disastrous banking situation. Yeah, the long-term may work out, but they have to survive the short-term first.
Given the fact that they’ve been around for about 4000 years, I wouldn’t bet against them.
True, but they also haven’t always been in as good a condition or shape as they are now. The fortunes of nations ebb and flow. Only time can tell how China will handle the 21st century.
“I think anyone from the US who wants to re-locate their business to China should do so, with the caveat that they many never do business with the US and that their citizenship be revoked permanently, along with their families.”
Might as well extend that to the currency traders.
Might as well extend that to the currency traders.
Only allow trades that favor the raise of the USA is what he seems to advocate, don’t allow trades the other way.
The USA made it to the top because of world trade; now the USA seems so scared to be #2 or #5 for a while that we are getting all protective and defensive…. instead of focusing on how to be better world traders.
The housing boom is pretty much like inbreeding or masturbation. It was the average person spending money on themselves in totally stupid ways. Not saving and all the things discussed on this forum every day. All this China bashing ignores how we are screwing ourselves right here at home with our own tax system, financial ignorance of average person, government actions both home and abroad. China is just the popular excuse… as they are starting to beat us at our own game.
In the past 5 years people in the USA have: gotten larger cars, driving longer to go to work, do more and more 9 to 5 confirming nonsense.
Where the Chinese are mastering mail-order, telecommuting, customized manufacturing, etc. Some lady working out of her house made $1M working what is essentially a video game… by trading real-estate and simulating sex. The Chinese are beating us at our own game: $1M telecommuting
// Do something to change the tide. Freedom and a big change in economics. The ideas are out there. http://www.RepRap.org/ Stop blaming the Chinese.. the USA is the one who put them at the top! We financed their growth.
Agree that Americans have done this to themselves.
But the real reason Globalism is failing on America’s side and acceleratings the destruction of the middle class is the blatant disregard for Copyright Law. The effects from this are just disturbing. Lose in international court on Patent infringement, just move to another province or Vietnam, take the die sets with ya. Badabing, back in business.
Sorry Globalist, until this gets fixed someone has to pay. America currently is receiving a mojority of the inequity, just because Europe has some semblance of trade regulation. Remember all those containers that sat off-shore last year in France, until America stands up for herself the problems are going to get much worse.
Middle class is a portion of the bell curve. It is still there. It simply moved.
These debates merely point to the obvious: America is losing its #1 position in the world. When the US was the clear-cut economic leader in the world we went to great lengths to pressure other countries to open up to our trade, often to the point of political and military interference. Now that that situation is changing and America’s continued #1 status is in doubt, these same people are critical about the loss of American jobs and other effects of globalization. Where were you all before? I don’t quite remember these voices during the Reagan or Clinton years, except for a small minority on the far left. We created this and now we’re angry about it. America is acting like the little boy who brings the ball to play some pick-up, once he starts losing he takes his ball and runs home. We need to do like the rest of the world and buck up, accept reality and try to out-compete the rest of the world. Yes, that means HARD work, that means not everyone can have an Escalade and plasma TV. Thats reality. If America completely closes off to trade, closes its borders and strips people who move their businesses out of the country of citizenship, it will be the biggest act of economic suicide in history.
I must be one of the few than. In the mid 90’s when delivering parts to one of my customers they were walking thru a supposed Business Partner Company showing them their whole operation. About 15 Asian guys with cameras, taking pictures the whole enchilada. They bought 1 unit and the partnership fell through. 12 Months later they had their biggest conmpetitor which eventually overwhelmed them.
I run a manufacturing facility and have been in the business for 27 years. Not for one second have I thought that Globalization was going to benefit America in the long run. Sure some Wall Street firms and MBA’s for hire make out but the majority of the rest are walking willingly to the sacrificial alter.
The point I was trying to make is that Globalism looks good on paper and all but the flaws that are their are fairly insurmountable.
Without respect for patents and functional international copyright laws, Globalism for America was doomed for failure fron the beginning.
Been there….I was working at one of the aerospace manufacturers in the early 90s when they started (trying) to sell aircraft to the Chicoms……A bunch of guys showed up in their Mao suits with cameras, were given carte blanche to copy and photograph EVERYTHING…..including our “cheat sheets” which (for the lack of a better phrase) was our “institutional memory” on how maintenance and rigging procedures could be completed the most efficient way.
Fortunately, we weren’t as dumb as we looked……..we stopped writing stuff down, and started keeping info in our heads, or personal notes.
That, or describing procedures in “farm boy language” that we knew would be difficult to translate.
Last I heard, the company in question was selling some airplanes in China…..but was also setting up a “joint venture” to build airplanes in China with their new “partners”.
Another story……..a major avionics manufacturer wanted a bunch of their retiring engineers to help them develop an “Expert System” (which undoubtedly, would be opened up in Bangalore, or somewhere like that).
Engineers (reportedly) said “Screw you…….you guys aren’t screwing up my future consulting job!”
Us americuns look like a bunch of dumb-asses, but we figure it out quick.
“Once known for drab, government-controlled housing and ancient courtyard homes, China has become a land of multimillion-dollar apartments and soaring property values”
China is rapidly bulldozing it’s landscape and obliterating many old historical sites in it’s efforts to modernize and provide housing & urban infrastructures for it’s overcrowded country. China has 4000+ years of history and there are still lots of ancient historical temples, pagodas, ruins, monuments dotting the landscape especially in the Yellow river region but i fear the chinese gov’t and developers will obliterate the historical sites in the name of progress and modernzation.
I am more interested in the tourism angle than in actally investing in china properties so have done a bit of researching into all the interesting places and sites to visit in China . Chengdu sounds pretty reasonably priced as far as housing prices. Sounds like a pretty decent city as well, and U at least have the opportunity to roam in some still open unsettled wild western areas of Sichuan ,Yunnan, and even slide over into Tibet .
Guangdong province and the Pearl river delta regions which comprize Foshan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou(formerty Canton), as well as Kowloon pennisula and HK, are really overcrowded and their riverways/air are subject to severe pollution problems. They are busy commercial industrail beehives but not especaiily appealing places to reside in if U seek more open uncrowded areas.
Free trade is a essentially a fraud. Fair trade is a principle. China and India are essentially mercantilist, not “free trade” states by any stretch of the imagination. The US is beggaring itself by holding itself to a “free trade’ standard while India and China keep their protections in place.
Folks who go nuts about free trade are wasting their time. The clock will not go backwards. You can scream, you can yell you can stomp your feet but free trade is here to stay. We are in a global economy and the only way to get ahead is to accept it and try to figure out how your skills can fit into reality. Until people do they will be stuck wishing for yesterday.
You really think so? Ask those losing their jobs and receiving lower wages if luck!
I think that like the status of globalism prior to WWI, alot of people felt the same way as you.
Free Trade agreements have as much to do with Free Trade as the PATRIOT Act has to do with patriotism. The only thing a country needs to allow for *free trade* is to remove all taxes on imports and exports. The taxes only harm the citizens of the country because they are the ones who ultimately pay them.
Our country is hurt due to manipulated trade agreements that favor big companies and stifle competition.
That said, I think that the fairest and most just tax that a country can have is a tax on imports. A tax on imports makes foreign countries “pay” for the privilege of doing business in the USA. But it also gives Citizens of the US the ability to avoid the tax by producing things cheaper here at home than foreigners can. If the government sets the tax too high, then they lose revenue. It is a natural and self-regulating system.
If you want energy independence the only thing the government needs to do is tax the importation of oil until the free market discovers the best alternative. All of the other ideas are wasted efforts designed to enrich special interests.
Amen, BP.
The clock will not go backwards. You can scream, you can yell you can stomp your feet but free trade is here to stay.
Laugh.
Anyone who actually believes that “free trade” exists is living in Fantasyland.
Perhaps you mean “Less Overtly Protectionist Trade Rigged To Maximize Profits For The Corporate Elite.”
We are in a global economy and the only way to get ahead is to accept it and try to figure out how your skills can fit into reality. Until people do they will be stuck wishing for yesterday.
——————————————————————-
I guess they figured to become home speculators and stiff banks if it doesn’t work out
Go VAtech Dan. Excellent exposition. Nothing “free” about it……or patriotic about the other
And it is bad why? Oh right, you want China as well as the third world countries in Africa to be a kind of a zoo where people live in primitive conditions so little Johny can go there on a trip and take pictures so show his classmate. China is going right now through the same changes that UK, Germany, and Japan went though during the industrial revolution and that’s what scares shitless arm-chair liberals.
When all other excuse making and apologies fail, wheel out the boogeyman. This time known as “librull”……. BOO!
Notice who keeps running around saying “No, Africa should not develop! It would kill the presine place!”. “No, China should not develop! It would kill presine place”
No I don’t notice. I don’t think anyone else does either so shoot. Give us another.
“the presine place!”
What is “presine” ??
“What is “presine” ?? ”
Yeah. That ones in the teenager street dictionary.
EC,
I think those of us who are against “free trade” and “globalism” would rather see those in Africa or China pull themselves (with our help, if need be) up to our level rather than us moving down to theirs.
What I find hillarious is that those who try to villify us “anti-globalization” types are NOT willing to lower their standard of living! So many “free traders” are the very ones who benefit from the demise of the American middle class — they do not intend to go down with the ship, but instead plan to profit from the wreckage.
I have no problem with global trade, but we should only trade with other countries who have our same standards WRT labor laws, wages, healthcare, standard of living, etc.
Not saying that we shouldn’t help poorer nations…we should! But exploiting the poor in other countries is hardly the way to do it, IMHO.
Paulson Predicts Quick Stimulus Plan
Reading into this article, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
From the article……….
“Paulson said he had been consulting with leaders of Congress from both parties and felt confident that all sides can agree on a common objective to enact a temporary stimulus package that will be “robust and simple.”
Paulson, interviewed on NBC’s “Today” show, said that the biggest part of the package should be focused on consumers, “getting money to them so they will spend it.”
I just don’t freaking believe it!!!!!!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080118/paulson_stimulus.html
While it shows how small minded he is, I won’t mind if the gov gives me back .001% of the money they take from me, at the point of a gun.
Oh, any time you want to have an IRS bashing thread, count me in big time. I’ve been “arguing” with them on a yearly basis since the mid ’80s.
Me, neither. But the effort looks so pathetic.
I will. Instead of having FBs borrow billions, spending it on short term consumption, and ruin their own lives, Bush and Paulson want to borrow billions for them, let them spend it on short term consumption, and make my children pay it back.
Privitize the excess consumption, socialize the credit card balance.
Well then do the right thing and send in double what you owe this year. It’s for the children.
lol
Ben, you nailed it.Government uses 3 things to inspire the sheeples:
1. The Flag
2. The Bible/and or God
3. The Children -
And it works everytime (for now). Do you want frosting on that cake?
No I’ll just bank the proceeds of any check for my own kids. And continue to advocate defaulting on the national, state and local debts.
I volunteer @ a local museum and raising the flag is one of my duties, and once in awhile I fly it upside down…
Nobody’s ever noticed, yet.
1. Love this country, think it’s a great place to live, although I am not willing to kill/be killed for it, I am constantly thankful that other people are.
2. Religion is the opiate of the masses. Doing anything in the name of “God”, imho, is just playing into the hands/desires of others. Also, religion has been the cause of more wars/death then just about anything else ever developed by man. That’s not going to inspire this sheeple to do notin.
3. I work from home, and live in a “Agrestic” type community. The kids run around all day long and scream and yell with total impunity. I hate kids, but more then that, I really hate the parents. Once again, “do it for the the kids” is one of those things designed to get people to do really, really stupid things that’s not in anyone’s (even the kids) self interest.
Stupid, stupid people.
If religion is the opiate of the masses, then TV is the methamphedamine of the masses.
We gave up TV 12 years ago. You truly live a better life without it.
What, and live w/o “Jeopardy”?
“make my children pay it back..”
I really want my child and her friends to ‘pay it back’. It is OK if they have to lead a little poorer life. When I recall what we had in our childhood & youth, I sometimes get upset that these kids have it so good. So many gadgets, so much of entertainment, such good food they have. My wife believes that we should accumulate as much wealth as possible and then pass it on to he kid. I argue against that notion. My thinking: We should retire early (may be in early 50s), enjoy our wealth as much as possible, let the kid have whatever is left.
Warren Buffett didn’t raise spoiled kids, and taught them responsibility and consequences for their actions at an early age. I saw him interviewed, and a segment was on raising children, who become good adults. His kids aren’t getting a lot. They’ve made it on their own, by good training (work ethic and hard work). Entitlement is destructive.
“(work ethic and hard work)”
sorry for the redundancy- I meant to say good ethics and hard work.
Not sure anyone heard about WB’s story on loan. His sister was asking to borrow some money from him during the 1987 crash. His response “go to the bank”. LOL.
I agree.
My BIL was telling me that as part of his divorce settlement from his first marriage, he has topay for their daughters college education….WTF?
My parents had 11 kids. They told us that if we wanted to go to college, get a job and start looking at scholarships. Out of the 11, 9 of us have a college education that was worked for. We appreciate the costs and use the education to the best of our ability.
I have told my kids that if they’re hungry I’ll give them food and if they need a place to stay in order to pay for college, their bedroom will be there but they have to work for their education.
It’s easy to say that, but there is also a class structure. I have friends that come from homes where their parents have a good amount of money (and I imagine others in the community look up to them). That opens *ALOT* of doors that wouldn’t be open to others. I feel the same would happen to WB’s kids. As would Bill Gates.
So true, VB!
IIRC (too lazy to look it up), Warren Buffett helped his kids into their current positions — either directly or indirectly. Also, while not leaving everything to them, he is leaving them a few million each (again, going from memory).
It may be chump change to him, but to most of us, what his kids get would set us up for life, if handled well (and I’m sure he’s helped them out there, too).
OTOH, I also worked my way through college and am very grateful for the experience. Was able to graduate and made decent money right out of the gate (actually, stayed with the company I worked for while in college — they tripled my pay).
How about sourcing revenue from those who actually have something instead of shifting the burden to those who don’t?
By what authority do you steal from one man because he is rich to give to another?
The only just taxes are those that are placed upon government granted privileges. Anything else and the secret ballot process becomes nothing more than a den of thieves attempting to hide behind a veil of anonaminity by nominating another to steal in their name. The actual thief (government official) shifts the blame to an anonymous “majority”, but cannot prove that even one individual delegated authority to him to steal.
So Dan. Let me understand this…. You propose zero taxes for everyone?
Exeter,
The government grants many privileges based upon the property that it owns. If we give the government ownership over the air waves, they can tax the use of the airwaves. If we give them ownership over the borders then they can tax the use of the borders (import/export taxes). If we give them ownership of our lives then they can tax our wages and draft us. If they own the land then they can tax the property use.
At some point the government crosses the line from protecting our property to claiming ownership of all of our property.
The government can raise money without denying anyone else freedom nor their property rights.
Let me pose the following situation. You are walking down the street and you notice a mugging and then decide to intervene to prevent that thief from stealing the other guys wallet and possibly killing him. After you run off the thief you say, “well, I saved your life and wallet so you owe your life and wallet to me.” Did you really help the poor guy who was being mugged or did you just become a stronger mugger?
So it is with our government.
If you accept that the government can redistribute wealth arbitrarily then you have a communist country.
Nice blurb but you never answered the question. You don’t need to at this point but you do need to answer how the US military is funded, roadways are built, water supplies are established, bridges repaired, laws are promulgated and passed, schools are run, teachers are paid, etc etc….
Yeah… I think you left out a few things.
If just powers come from the CONSENT of the governed then the governed need to *give* the government some initial property upon its formation at which time the founders CONSENT to the government (under restrictions defined by the constitution) by paying for the services they charter the government to provide.
Once the government *owns* the property *given* then it can raise revenue like any other corporation. If it buys property and builds roads then they can charge a fee for the use of those roads.
Schools should not be run by the government.
To compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of opinions which he disbelieves and abhors, is sinful and tyrannical”, said Thomas Jefferson. If we don’t want others deciding the curriculum for our children, then we should not attempt to mandate the curriculum for others. Read this article for “proof” that welfare schools are incapable of promoting the general principles of personal responsibly and critical thinking this board promotes.
No one (but communists) would consent to giving all of their property to the government in the name of protecting their property. As such there must be property that IS NOT the governments or else you have an unjust government. If there is property that is not the governments (your body, labor) then it cannot be taxed.
Dan… you’re forgetting a few things. How is national defense paid for??
Not only that, but many would say that companies/corporations “steal” the value of labor from their employees.
Who decides what their profit margin should be? Where do you think this profit comes from? Some would argue that the profit belongs to those who created the goods/services sold.
One way to look at it is that taxes are a way to distribute those profits to those who truly earned them (take from the “rich” and give to the “poor”).
There’s obviously a lot more to it, but just wanted to point out that how one defines “theft” depends on which side of the class divide he/she sits on.
Personally, I gladly pay my taxes, and even when I’ve had the “easy” opportunity to “cheat,” I changed the numbers (from what accountant had) to reflect the truth and paid more.
I talk the talk, so have to walk the walk.
Ben, it’s only a loan until they find a way to take it back. For heavens sake………The US Govt is the biggest subprime borrower this planet has ever know.
To me it’s a non-event. Like the super SIV thing. Gotta look like you’re doing something!
I agree. Those not in trouble won’t have their consumption effected one bit (I’ll just bank whatever I get). Those in trouble will keep the sheriff from the door for another few weeks.
The government should save postage and send the money directly to the banks on behalf of the FBs.
The gov is merely obeying their chinese masters.
Explain how driving the dollar down (along with the exchange-adjusted value of U.S. assets from the perspective of our foreign creditors) is tantamount to “obeying their chinese masters”?
Actually I was kind of thinking that Paulson’s words show that WE are the real masters. They are clearly admitting that they need us to spend money and buy garbage - his words make that crystal clear.
Now is the time to remember that our dollars are our real votes. Scrutinize every purchase - make sure you really need something and that you will extract every shred of use value from it - especially when spending our $250 table scrap.
“…$250 table scrap.”
Now the talk is $500. (Brings to mind the sinking Superfund SIV proposal: $100 bn, $75 bn, $60 bn, going, going, $0…)
Its all psychological. Its a way of saying “Don’t panic” to the masses and the idiotic element amongst investors. I’m sure everyone in the know, knows that it means absolutely nothing in the long run.
http://boortz.com/nuze/index.html
The richest 1% of households in the U.S. are now paying a record 27.6% of all federal taxes and a record of 38.8% of all federal income taxes.
The richest 1% of households only earn about 17% of all income.
The top 1.1 million households (the evil rich) pay a greater share of the income tax burden than the bottom 90 million households combined.
The chart and the report from the CBO shows that the nation’s tax burden has been shifting away from typical Americans to the wealthiest households since the early 1980s.
You are never going to see this chart or read this information on the news pages of America’s leading left-wing newspapers, nor will you see this information presented on network newscasts. Why not? Because the more the people of this nation understand what is really happening with our tax situation, the less the demagoguery of people like Hillary Clinton — that “tax cuts for the wealthy” line — will work on the voters. Informed voters are the enemies of the MoveOn Democrat Party. The media admits that Hillary appeals to less educated voters. Well, there’s no sense educating these voters. If you do, they might not be Hillary supporters any more?
Something else we need to cover. These evil, filthy rich people that are so much fun to hate … these are the people who invest. These are the people who create the jobs. These are the people who start new businesses. These are the people the very people who hate them will have to depend on for a better job or a growing economy.
Spread the word. The other side is sure getting out the “tax cuts on the wealthy” line. We need to do a better job of getting the truth out there.
The richest 1% of households only earn about 17% of all income So how did they get their money if they wern’t earning it. Oh yeah, they inherited it.
You don’t inherit income, only wealth. We don’t tax wealth, only income.
And most of the wealthy people I know earned it hard way, over a long time.
Yeah right…..Jacqueline Mars “earned” every penny by picking the right sperm to be her daddy (Mars Candy).
What you call ‘wealthy’ and what it really takes to be in the top 1-5% in income and assests are probably two very very different things.
We tax income, not wealth…hence, the super rich, including liberals like Teresa Heinz Kerry ,can get away with a very small tax bill.
Why? Because, following the advice of her accountants, she structures her investments and income streatm to avoid or minimize taxes. Newsflash - this is what most of the super rich do, which is why the “tax the rich” schemes always end up hitting the upper-middle class, or, even worse, the middle class in high-cost areas (as they need higher incomes just to live there).
This hurts the middle-class and upper-middle class, who depend on income to live.
Incidentally, the old “the rich inherited their wealth” is out of date…a major shift has occurred over the last 25 years. Most wealthy people have, in fact, earned their money. They may not have been “dirt poor” (most likely they came from middle-class or upper-middle class homes), but they were not “born rich” by any means.
Well we DO tax SOME forms of wealth at SOME times. We tax REALLY LARGE estates when people die. We tax real property annually in most states. In VA thre is a tax on personal property. But for the most part, wealth is much more concentrated than income. And yet, most taxes are on income. That is WHY the richest 1%, who earn 17% of income are paying 28% of the taxes. They can AFFORD it.
Just out of curiousity, do you think you can invest if you live in poverty? I know, we should all live below our income, however there is some minimum income that a person or family needs to survive, unless you live on the street(no rent or mortgage) grow or steal your food, etc.
I am afraid we will find in the near future, what the minimum income wil be needed to survive in our brave new world.
Soup lines anyone?
I live off my investments. I am evil & filthy, I grant, but I’m not anywhere near rich. I live just above the federal poverty line.
” These are the people the very people who hate them will have to depend on for a better job or a growing economy. ”
I didn’t know the executards who get $100M severance packages for leading their companies into economic disaster are the ones who will lead to better jobs and a stronger economy.
The KoolAid you’re drinking must be spiked with some really good stuff, because what you’re saying is beyond comprehension, and like all conspiracy theories convienently without any references.
“The KoolAid you’re drinking must be spiked with some really good stuff, because what you’re saying is beyond comprehension, and like all conspiracy theories convienently without any references.”
Still waiting for Ben to shut down the spam operation.
Exeter, what is your problem and why did you call me an “ass wipe” for suggesting that cheaper homes will sell faster than more expensive ones?
Read this guys “reference” and tell me how facts from an obscure and politically partisan talk show host is a reliable “reference”.
Get a life, or get lost.
Dude relax. I’m in agreement with you. I apologize for the Asswipe comment.
kckid,
You fail to mention how those richests families became that way: often at the appalling expense of others. Wall Street raptors and hedge fund fraudsters aren’t really worth crying over.
So what if the fantastically wealthy pay a much higher tax rate? They can afford to. After all, hiring illegals to work in their companies saves them even bigger fortunes in social security taxes, unemployment compensation, and medical insurance–while the rest of the country picks up the bill for them via welfare, crime, and general misery.
There is no reason on Earth for individuals to be raking in BILLIONS of dollars, and flaunting their wealth like Arabian despots. The truth is that many, many, many very wealthy people got that way by very dubious means. The so called Titans of Industry are rarely in the ranks of Mother Teresa. Even the simply wealthy are often questionable entities: developers, mortgage brokers, real estate scammers, cosmetic plastic surgeons, investment bankers, abortionists, and the like.
I live in a neighborhood that used to be pleasant, but is now ground zero for every pretentious, newly rich twit in Tampa, and the greed, bad taste, and nastiness of some of these people are unbelievable. My outrageously wealthy aunt, who bitches about taxes, also speaks with revulsion of the poor, and says their poverty is their own fault, because of their negative thinking. She doesn’t mention that her business, which made her rich, was bought for her by her parents.
It’s far more difficult for someone with a middle income to pay all his taxes than it is for a billionaire, who lords his wealth over everyone around him. So let the biggies suck it up, or stop parading their wealth to make everyone else feel small. What better way to provoke the anger of the masses in voting booths than to strut around pretending to be important and the beneficiaries of enlightened self-interest.
And no, I’m neither a Democrat nor Republican.
Don’t forget the payroll tax. Got to look at the whole pie.
What makes you think anything in that rant is worth believing? Reminds me of the folks who post LaRouche website articles on this blog — I never take the time to read them, no matter how truthy they seem.
What makes you think anything in that rant is worth believing? Reminds me of the folks who post LaRouche website articles on this blog — I never take the time to read them, no matter how truthy they seem.
Laugh.
Oh, Lyndon, you crazy kook — truthiness personified.
The top 1% have a total income that is equal to the entire income of the bottom 20%.
The top 6.37% have 33.3333% of all income in the US.
The top 1% control 33.4% of all net worth (and the next 19% have 51% and the bottom 80% have 15.5%.)
The top 1% have 39.7% of the financial wealth which is business equity, financial securities, trusts, stocks and mutual funds, and non-home real estate (and the next 9% have 37.7% and the bottom 90% have 14.5%.)
Between 2003- 05, the AFTER-TAX incomes of the top 1% went up 43.5% (and the top 5% were up 27.7% and the top 10% were up 20.9% and the other 90% were up around 3% - and inflation was more than that.)
Top 1% = minimum income of $402,000 in 2006 (to make the top .1% takes $1,600,000 and the top .01% over $6,000,000.)
Top 5% = $185,000+/-
Top 10% = $150,000
In comparison, $100,000 only makes the top 15-16%
Can the top 1% pay more than they do? Most definitely when they control far more wealth than they pay in taxes. A few less $5000 handbags and $100,000 watches is character-building.
IRS would never be against -you- paying more money. As the tax time comes, I’m sure you would not mind including a few grand more? Afterall, it is just a few less handbags.
I’ll never understand why a wage earner panders for a tax shift from the wealthy elite to himself.
Always said that happiness is being in the 50% bracket for income tax purposes.
If you handed me $500,000 and told me to go shopping at the mall, I might - if I tried real real hard - be able to spend $1,000 (and that would mean buying things I do not NEED)
April 15 is around the corner. Since you can only spend $1000 a the mall when you try really hard, do help us fight the deficit - simply cut an IRS check for extra thousand bucks, even better, cut them the check for all the money you made that year - the Big Government definitely knows better than you how to take care of you.
Nope. We’re gonna depend on the feds to correct that little problem called the budget gap.
Spread the word. The other side is sure getting out the “tax cuts on the wealthy” line. We need to do a better job of getting the truth out there.
Yep, the life of the rich is certainly very hard. They need every bit of your broke-ass support.
Sure, they paid the most taxes in “nominal” terms, but no one ever looks at the inflation tax which the wealthy / government place on the rest of society.
If the wealthy double the supply of money (for themselves) and pay their 33% “income” tax to the government on their new money then the poor paid a 50% tax on their SAVINGS.
Taxing the rich or supporting the income tax violates the following principles of sound law:
1) Property Rights, if the government must pay you fair market value to take your house by eminent domain, by what right can they lay claim to your private property when you exchange it with another?
2) Privacy Rights (why does the government get to audit your books?)
3) 5th Amendment, why should you be forced to testify against yourself?
4) Illegal Regulation By Taxation, if the government could put a tax on religion then they could outlaw it. If they can tax labor, then they can outlaw it.
5) Clarity of Command (how is “income” defined? No one can really know the tax law).
6) Income Tax (as applied) is a DIRECT tax that is not apportioned but in reality it is written as an INDIRECT tax on the privilege of being an elected official or employee of a federally charted corporation (vs private corporation).
Any effort to tax the wealthy is an attempt to treat a symptom and not the disease (fiat money, fractional reserve lending, and government spending). If you have no moral authority to steal from the rich guy, they you cannot delegate that authority to your government.
“The richest 1% of households in the U.S. are now paying a record 27.6% of all federal taxes and a record of 38.8% of all federal income taxes.”
This is incredibly misleading. The definition of rich according to MW is “having abundant possessions and especially material wealth.” As a CPA, I will assure you the richest people in this country pay very little tax. However, the title of the graph in the article “The Top 1% of Taxpayers Now Shouldering a Record” is correct. This is a minor but incredibly important distinction. The top 1% of taxpayers are generally those who earn a large amount of ordinary income as a % of total income. These people are also usually relatively young, in large amounts of debt, and far from rich. I know many people who would be in the top 1% of taxpayers who have negative equity now that the housing market has collapsed.
The truly rich, the top 1%, have usually gotten most of their wealth through inheritance and capital gains, both of which are taxed at a fraction of the rate of ordinary income. Granted, inheritance taxes in the past were steep but they are quickly being eliminated.
The tax laws in this country strictly favor the wealthy and the poor. They are designed to protect the wealthy and stop others from joining their ranks. Misleading articles like the one you reference only hurt our cause.
Should one really be handing out beer money after the party is over and you know the house is destroyed? Reminds me of Bush’s stance that its better to be wrong and consistent, then to be open minded and willing to change your views when new data presents itself.
I think Uncle Sam should issue everyone Target gift cards.
“getting money to them so they will spend it”…on Sony Playstations
“getting money to them so they will spend it”…on Sony Playstations”
Asparagus……exactly. That’s the point I was trying to make.
Hoping they’ll spend the money at my E-bay / Amazon storefronts. I’m on track to make gold powerseller next month and every little bit helps;-)
Or perhaps it will be used to pay down bloated Christmas credit card balances.
Is paying down a balance a detriment as it is taking a portion of future interest away from lenders or a stimulus because banks are desperate for cash?
Actually, there’s a poll over at http://cnn.com/am that says most people will use it to pay off debts. 1 in 5 has to borrow money to heat their homes and people who are making late cc payments are paying 30% interest. It won’t do anything to increase consumer spending and will only increase our debt to China, et al.
(Actually, there’s a poll over at http://cnn.com/am that says most people will use it to pay off debts. 1 in 5 has to borrow money to heat their homes and people who are making late cc payments are paying 30% interest.)
They might as well send the money direct to the debtholders and skip the FBs.
(It won’t do anything to increase consumer spending and will only increase our debt to China, et al. )
In the long run, that’s true if they spend it too.
As I note above, that would save a lot of postage.
Well…. people don’t want to SAY that they’ll continue their profligte ways. Besides, paying down credit cards with a one time windfall does NOT imply changing one’s life and living within one’s means. It just means that now they have some breathing space underneath of their limit. THAT won’t last long.
Quick Fistful Stimulus?
yet another pathetic last minute do anything, circle jerk move.
it’s like the min wage why not $17 an hour
why not 8k rebate
they act like it’s their money
-increase the skim !
So why not increase people credit card limits $1000 each…..
No out of pocket guvmints costs..And people will spend the “FREE $$$$”
Why, aNYCdj ou’re a genius! And this is exactly in accordance with the administration’s earlier fix after 9/11: to get people to use their credit cards and buy, buy, buy!
I think you should send your comment to Dumbass right away, though he won’t grasp the sarcasm, and by tomorrow will be announcing this new idea on television. We’ll be laughing on this blogs for weeks to come!
listening to the news radio this morning, almost everyone interviewed said they would use it to pay bills.
I’ve got a feeling our policy makers really don’t have a grasp on how bad of shape the consumer is in.
BTW Ben, it’s been a while since I donated so I thought a bout it last night and I intend to split it between you and CR.
Thanks for the education!
“I’ve got a feeling our policy makers really don’t have a grasp on how bad of shape the consumer is in. ”
The symptom you refer to is called cluelessness. It is exactly what occurs when wealth gets concetrated among a few hands.
“Paulson said he had been consulting with leaders of Congress from both parties and felt confident that all sides can agree on a common objective to enact a temporary stimulus package that will be “robust and simple.”
Common objective: incumbents from both parties to stay in office!
Common objective: incumbents from both parties to stay in office!
Bingo. We have a winner.
Clearly the $500 per household is going to go straight back into the stock market. That would explain why the headline U.S. stock market indexes are all rocketing upwards this morning. (Man behind the curtain: “Ignore that point of inflection. When we stimulate, the market always goes up.”)
January 18, 2008 9:38 A.M.EST
BULLETIN DOW INDUSTRIALS LEAPS 100 POINTS, PROPELLED BY FISCAL-STIMULUS OPTIMISM
Stimulated to buy stocks
Hard-hit shares higher on anticipation over stimulus plan
Stocks stake out broad-based early gains. Investors pin hopes on the shot in the arm that a stimulus package under discussion in Washington would deliver to the U.S. economy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Someone apparently has given the bull a shot of steroids today, right in the arse.
Don’t think of this early 2008 period as a stock market correction. Think of it as a tool to help legitimize Fed actions to in liquidity, serving to (1) inflate the value of corporate shares, in order to postpone a point in time when the stock market clearly signals recession, and (2) create a “troop surge” effect in the War on Savers.
There has never been a better time to buy the dip, sheeple…
The checks aren’t in the mail yet, so waiting five months for the cash is not going to have any kind of immediate economic impact. Still have to wait a couple months to buy those new ipods:
Once a rebate is decided on, the IRS could start mailing out checks by the end of June since the agency is now in the middle of the 2007 tax-filing season, said Jason Furman, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. The IRS, however, is not yet commenting on the matter since negotiations about the rebate are still under way.
http://tinyurl.com/3xwndc
If we save the money instead, will he take us out behind the barn and shoot us?
Our what if we take it overseas and spend it on vacation - flying on a foreign flagged carrier of course?
Why do you guys have to bash Paulson, he seems very reasonable…moreover, a man with a plan…I’m certain it will work, as briefed, I mean look how well the super-SIV deal worked out.
Got poop-corn?
Crush
A scary thing happened at our city owned airport yesterday.
A lady came into the terminal building and asked to see the manager.
She said I am from the IRS and we have just seized the twin engine
Aerostar airplane stored in your large hangar. They put a large chain around one of the props and a large sticker on the door stating we have seized this aircraft for non payment of income taxes. This
plane will be sold in the future at an auction. If you owe the IRS and
have any property they will seize it for non payment of taxes.
Land of the free!
Velo
that doesn’t happen before the taxpayer has plenty of warning and opportunities to work something out. Trust me, I’ve had them threaten to take everything but the food off my table but you can always work something out with them.
Just be sure to answer any mail the IRS sends you. In 2006 I could have been fined $500 for a late filing of a form (just late filing, I owed them nothing), but was excused after I wrote a letter to explain why.
If you owed nothing, why do you have to file?
It was the law.
Crap, I got a form from the IRS regarding a [failed] business venture. I read the instructions and, for me, all I had to do was check a box that said I owe nothing, sign it, and mail it back. Perhaps I’ll do that when I get home.
don’t mess with IRS. Remember how Big Al got taken down.
The IRS can make a claim on your property and cease it without due process of law. This is unconstitutional! They have to prove that you owe the money before a jury before they can deny you your right to property.
Just don’t not pay them with money in an undisclosed foreign bank account. If you “forget” to tell them about foreign accounts over $10,000 the penalty can be 100% of the account (or $25k, whichever is larger). I wonder if Wesley Snipes cracker jack accountants mentioned that one to him…
Based on my experience, the recession began in the middle of October. Sales of our widgets were going on nicely, then it was like a switch was flipped. It was that sudden. Sales have been halved since then. I constantly monitor other factors - leads flow, search engine placement, outbound marketing - these parts of the equation haven’t changed. Businesses have simply cut way back on expenditures. Customers are in fact telling me this.
I am reminded of December 2000. I could swear I remember Greenspan saying that he was suddenly receiving phone calls from business leaders complaining that everything just froze up.
same here, but I’ve been focussed on service contractors and they get nailed by the builders eventually
What about muni governments? I answer RFPs from cities and counties and they have slowed way down…which I don’t mind because I hate ‘em. Seems like it would take longer for them to cut back from lower tax revs.
Lou:
I noticed it too a few months ago, my phone has all but stopped ringing. The DJ work is very slow and people are scoffing at even $750 for a wedding dj. With the stolen music on the ipods and laptop dj’s Legal dj’s are having a very hard time getting good money anymore. Unless its very high end,like the $2500+ bar mitzvah dj with light dancers plasma screens and vidcams, games
Most people will not answer a return receipt for a resume anymore, i sent over 100 since Christmas and only got back 4 replies, and none of them were even close to where i live.
I’m even trying to DJ for Free on Fat Tuesday with authentic Mardi Gras Zydeco music, there are only 2 dj’s in all of nyc that does this. And still bar owners say No you must play rap and hip hop.
I do have one promising job, at a auction house yes auctioning off houses land etc, but again their ad wanted “interns” now what would an Intern know about foreclosures…(i was a paralegal too)
I guess the are looking for those cute little young girls calling prospective buyers and showing them the properties, and running up and down the aisles at the auction.
Most people will not answer a return receipt for a resume anymore, i sent over 100 since Christmas and only got back 4 replies, and none of them were even close to where i live.
Some unsolicited advice: becoming a DJ seems to be increasingly popular in the past 10 years. But I really don’t think the demand has grown as fast as the supply. Like massage therapists or and other such non-essentials, it will be cut back in a hard economy and you know the story on that… Maybe it has been more than a hobby and a good career for you… but I really doubt few make it as a good job as an independent.
In terms of your job search on something more mainstream:
The shotgun resume method is often not very good. 100 in less than a month? I think you might do a lot better to be more selective, focus on what employers want and being a good match. Or taking an entry position in a firm where you can learn the ropes and climb them… but do your homework.
People right here on these forums can help you. What exact jobs are you looking for and in what pay range? People might give you some leads at least.
Have you ever considered moving to Chicago? Lots of bars need DJs, lots of law firms need paralegals. Cars not needed. Cheap flights to NYC leave approx every 15 minutes. Cost of living much lower…
I’d be happy to ask some lawyer friends if anyone’s hiring.
There is growing demand for DJs, but not ones that charge $750. I play acoustic music, and many of the venues that use to hire acoustic musician are switching to DJs- they could have us for $200 a night or get a DJ for $100-$150….
Twenty years ago all the live bands/performers were whining that the dj’s were taking over all their wedding/mitzvah gigs. Curiously, SoCal/OC was in the middle of a housing slump then as well…. Maybe there’s a correlation? (Duh.)
Probably time to face the music, (sorry,) although Zydeco foreclosure auctions sound like a hoot on a wintery Saturday afternoon. Good luck!
Thanks…..but we have to contend with everybody stealing the music…
The biggest barrier to entry was your record cd collection, think of the cost of 2000 3000 4000 records or a thousand cd’s store bought. It kept a lot of riff raff out of the business. But not people think so lowly of a dj, places want you to work for free and get “exposure”…you know that is the rap/hip hop crowd doing this. But still it affects all of us.
bubble update from Europe:
Dutch financial company Aegon today froze investments in the Scottish Equitable real estate fund. The fund with investment value of around 2 billion euros is running into trouble because many investors cashed out, as UK market seems to be going down. As of today only 80 million was left in cash, just 4% of assets. No comments about the amount that has been withdrawn or how long the fund will remain locked.
of course, this is just a small fund but still - the panic is spreading to Europe (at least for investors, not yet for the private housing market).
So…it’s not “contained”?
Texas Supreme Court Justice indicted on arson. Mortgage company had tried to foreclose on his house of 15 years:
http://www.nbc5i.com/news/15082569/detail.html?rss=dfw&psp=news
The funky hot Medina?
Fed Stimulus Doomed to Fail
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-GS-C-bac-LEH-BSC/index/a/15581
Ben has convinced me that it is more about pols showing they are busy doing something to fix a problem than actually fixing anything. If there is a recession in the works at the moment, it is too late to do anything about it (though it will be possible to muck things up going forward with current foolish bailout attempts).
without a doubt they can make the mess bigger than it would be without intervention; there is always time left to do some more harm to the real economy.
these tax refunds may be just enough to keep the economy limping along until after the election. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see this talk turn into action. After november then you may be able to convince me that it is all talk and no action.
I have a question for the board regarding changing jobs during a recession. My wife and I have been thinking of leaving Florida for a while. We’re primarily looking at Texas for various reasons (the biggest being that it would put us closer to family). This has been our plan for a while. However, I’m starting to get concerned about changing companies during a recession (which I’m of the opinion that we’re already in). I have quite a few years vested with my current company. So if a layoff did happen, I certainly wouldn’t be the first out the door. Whereas if I start over with a new company, I’d likely be one of the first targets.
What would you do? Would you be willing to change a fairly secure job that you liked during a recession? If it helps to answer the question, I work as a computer programmer. I apologize if this topic has already been covered, but I value a lot of opinions on this board and wanted to see what you all thought.
You think you have a “fairly secure job” but you can’t be sure. Put the chance of staying employed where you are vs. the chance of staying employed where you are thinking of going to. Then there is the comparative cost of living and the comparative chance of finding another job should you lose whichever job you decided to take. You are taking a chance either way.
This is just a way to think about your choice, one of many.
You have money to make selling a house? If you own, better to cash out now before it goes down more. [I expect most here will agree on this] Rent where you are or where you go. Especially in Florida.
Do you have enough savings to equal 1 or 2 years income? Takes a lot of pressure off your concern of new job. Have you considered going independent or starting your own business? Computer programming can have very low cost overhead… just you You can work at home, and computer hardware is dirt cheap these days and open source tools are often the best. Compared to almost any other type of business, almost no investment required [since you already have your skills/training]!
Another comment: As a computer programmer, it is pretty common to change jobs every 2 to 3 years. Keeps you exposed to new technology. People like to hire people who moved new into town… I find it is often a good way to get a bump up in salary.
I live in Texas (near San Antonio in the Hill Country) - and work computer programming. I can’t vouch for the local job market as I telecommute and work throughout the country… but Texas surely isn’t a bad place for tech work. Lower cost and lower wages.
Thanks for the input, especially with regards to Texas. I’m mainly looking at Houston. A buddy of mine who lives there says there is not shortage of IT work. But having been laid off twice (2002 and 2003), I worry about such things.
Regarding my living situation, I rent, which makes moving much easier. And since my wife and I just had a baby, starting a business probably isn’t a good idea right now.
May be you should ask yourself; Am I happy with the current job? If so, can I grow with this company? Will my current skill set for useful for the next 10 years? Do I have enough saving in case I got layoff?
Engineering is a flaky business; you don’t get paid for being experience but constantly have to learn new technology every day.
I left a fortune 100 company after 14 years and went to a internet company back in 2001. Yes, that’s when the tech bubble busted but fortunately for me, I am doing OK. My experience so far was ‘damn, why didn’t I leave early?
As far as layoff is concerned, it has nothing to do with how long you have been with the company but either politics or the skill set company want to keep. This is the reality.
If you are young and don’t have a kid yet, go for it especially you have been planning for this for awhile.
My motto is “you are not going to find out until you try”.
Good Luck
My advice would be to move near family — especially if they have a home with some room to spare. If the SHTF, you can move in with them (I know, I know, NOT what you want to do, but best to leave that option open).
Second thing I’d do is make sure to get the cheapest housing possible in a safe area. Make sure you can cover costs with one minimum wage salary.
Then, save like there’s no tomorrow and eliminate debt if there’s a safe way to do that (I’d still recommend some cash reserves at this point, though).
I wish you the best of luck! Let us know how things turn out.
Per this article from Floyd Norris of the NYT. For the first 6 months of 2007 only 28% of Jumbo mortgages were traditional fixed rate loans. 66% were either interest only or negative amortization.
Does anyone have any insight into how accurate that number is?
http://tinyurl.com/35c36m
“The ideal home buyer now — in a reverse of what was true for years — is a renter who is not burdened with a house. Such a buyer will need a down payment from somewhere, and he or she will need enough income to meet the monthly payments for the foreseeable future, including any increase in adjustable rates that seems probable. But not owning a home, which may be hard to sell, is a big plus.”
The article does not talk about those who own their homes outright and have no debt - like me.
I agree that we are in the middle of a housing crash, but lets keep in mind that owning is better than renting in a normal market.
Does debt load really matter? I don’t care who owes on a note or who owns what house outright. The underlying asset value is dropping dramatically.
Debt load matters from the perspective that if you have $100 you can take a $50 loss and still live. If you owe $100 and lose $50 then you set off a chain of defaults. First you, then your lender and their lender, etc.
So the underlying asset of a homeowner who owes nothing is somehow different than one that owes something?
You’re losing it.
The only thing that matters is ability of borrower to maintain payments.
So you’re saying that any house where the borrows ability to pay hasn’t been handicapped to pay won’t decline.
How does that work?
No, he’s just saying that someone who owns their house outright will be ok, as opposed to the FBs who are in debt up to their eyeballs and will have one heck of a time over the next few years.
It is VERY accurate. Norris is getting his numbers from the same place I did - an OFHEO study that came out last week.
Here is the actual breakdown of the %s of jumbos that were some variety of interest-only, no amortization or fixed with amortization:
Fixed with Amortization (FA) 26
Fixed Interest Only (FIO) 18.9
ARM with Amortization (AA) 4.2
ARM Interest Only (AIO) 34.8
ARM Option (AO) 12.3
The interest-only fixed, the ARM Interest-only and the ARM Options exploded in number after 2003.
I have the data going back to 2002 if anyone is interested.
49.19% of jumbo loans are in CA. The next highest state is FL with 6.71% of them, then NY with 5.34% (say bye-bye NYC…..), then VA with 3.24% ( so sorry D.C.) and then WA with 3.21% (Seattle and Portland just got wet….) Those are the top 5 states in Jan. 2007 with jumbo loans.
Thanks for the confirmation. It really is amazing that so many people took out these kinds of loans. I think this kind of data shows that we are much closer to beginning of the price drops than the end.
i am starting a website http://www.rebatesforron.com so we can pledge our gov rebate checks to the ron paul campaign so we can show the powers that be what we think of their shortsighted and doomed to fail economic stimulus package.
Better yet, let’s start a rally in gold, then cash-out at $2K/oz.
This story is amusing, since I have been visiting Leelanau county for years & following the local shenanigans as closely as I can from a safe distance.
State of Michigan may take over Leelanau County building inspections.
“The state is stepping in to investigate building code violations and what it calls violations by county inspectors. It could lead to a Leelanau County department closing its doors in as little as 30 days.
Leelanau County has 30 days to decide whether it wants a hand in controlling its own fate… otherwise the state says it will take over all responsibilities for building inspections and code enforcement. But the future of the county inspections department is in doubt.
That’s because of complaints about building code violations dating back to 2004. Since then there have been several reported code violations in both commercial and residential properties, as well as questions about whether the county inspectors followed up with citations for those violations.”
Unfortunately the local paper (Leelanau Enterprise) is keeping this off its website. Recently a local building inspector sanctioned a high-$ building project for a violation. That inspector was then fired by his county boss & replaced by another, who then lifted the sanctions. Then the State got involved & placed new sanctions. Then things got more interesting. Where’s AnnScott?
Hi!
Yep - it is happening. There were some serious design things allowed in some high-priced developements in Sutton’s Bay (those $700,000 condos and $1,000,000 homes the developer thinks will sell to all the boomers who want to move here. LOL!)
There were 2 or 3 people in the Building Inspections Dept. who could be ‘induced’ to look the other way when construction and design shortcuts were taken. The developement is mired in lawsuits for defective buildings from some irate buyers.
The bad apples need to go but it is sad they want to just fire the people who did nothing wrong and were never involved as well.
(BTW, the Enterprise’s website is by subscription only for the news articles. You can access the ads and notices for free but not the news. The Enterprise will NOT protect the developers involved in the shennanigans with the ‘persuadeable inspectors’ - they are being sued by the developer for REPORTING it!)
Tresho - when you come up to Leelanau, come say Hi! I’m easy to find - woman on beach in Size 0-2 suit with 2 enormous white dogs who are wearing red backpacks and carrying everything. Ask at the Park Headquarters or anywhere in town - they’ll probably be able to tell you if I am at the beach, out in my gardens or off keeping the nursery in business dragging home even more plants. Just say “Ann”, “big white dogs with packs”……
Counterparty Risk Trumps Fiscal Stimulus
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-Bernanke-MCO-MBI-abk/index/a/15586
bonus time:
Wall Street’s five biggest firms together paid a record $39 billion in bonuses, even though three of them suffered the worst quarterly losses in their history and shareholders lost more than $80 billion.
Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers Holdings and Bear Stearns together paid $65.6 billion in compensation and benefits last year to their 186,000 employees
http://tinyurl.com/ywgs5y
yes, this is one of the saddest parts of this pyramid game. The people who are responsible most are cashing out big time and there is no way to touch them after the fact, the money will be gone and there will be only empty shells left (probably on the Cayman Islands etc.) to be prosecuted.
Didn’t work out so nicely for the top brass at Enron or WorldCom, did it?
not if you believe that Lay really left this earth … with so much money and high level buddies I wouldn’t be sure of that. We have a few similar examples in my country.
China, top gold producer:
HONG KONG - As it has done in many other manufacturing industries, China has made the most of its cost advantage to become the world’s largest gold-producing country, replacing South Africa.
http://tinyurl.com/yrhnvg
yes, very telling sign; and if they are ever going to sell their stock, it will probably be close to the top (and not close to the bottom like UK and other countries did).
Does their gold have lead in it?
THC is good long term stock at 4.53. (5 years)
Trevor is doing a great job, better than people know.
buy at your own risk .
from the Hindu article mentioned at the top:
“…we even have a new acronym for this: IAG (Involuntary Asset Growth).”
Shouldn’t that be: IRAG?
Involuntary “reassessment” of Asset Growth
So what has changed?
“déjà vu” :
“Economic implosion derived from illiquid assets alchemized by the credit expansion of global central banks using irrational exuberance to sustain a financial catastrophe of their own creation.”
Oh, yeah…taxpayer rebates…silly me…that changes everything…especially, making houses prices more in line with the “average” national income.
“Let’s face it. Let’s talk sense to the American people. Let’s tell them the truth, that there are no gains without pains, that we are now on the eve of great decisions, not easy decisions.”
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
Timeless statement made on 26 July 1952. I just wish the truth were popular. Gotta start somewhere.
Notice he lost in both ‘52′ and ‘56. We liked Ike.
I was so young then I liked Ikenixon.
The gold smash didn’t last long did it? Gold just looks stronger as time goes by. Heliben, where’s the rate cut?
Hey Ben, be sure to check out the Chicago Tribune today. The front page of the homes section (in the paper version at least) contains an article telling people that they better buy now if they want any sort of discount, because, you know, the boom is back this spring.
The main section of the paper has a pretty big article the rebate/stimulus package stuff, as well as a chart showing these things going back to the Ford era.
This is awesome. Anybody who hopes the bottom is near needs to read articles like these and realize we have a very long way to go.
Here’s a link to the print-ready version:
Linky
Dead Cat Bonds
(Please explain the big spike on the lower chart followed by the flattening thereof if you can…)
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=TYX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=3&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=tnx&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013
I don’t know, PB. I’m just bummed about the War on Savers and all…
Been watching rates nosediving across all our accounts. Too reminiscient of 2003/2004 when we were juggling CDs from one bank to another, just trying to get a couple of points.
Wish they’d stop with the price controls on money.
Calling all sheeple: Ignore the gloomsters, and buy the dip! There has never been a better time to buy stocks, as a bottom is clearly in now that a stimulus package has been announced. Don’t let the big Wall Street playas enjoy all the fantastic gains while you watch from the sidelines.
MARK HULBERT
A long-time bull throws in the towel
Commentary: Dan Sullivan’s model stock portfolio is now 100% in cash
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:32 p.m. EST Jan. 17, 2008
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — Stock market bulls lost an important ally on Wednesday: Dan Sullivan is now convinced that we are in a major bear market.
Sullivan is editor of two newsletters, The Chartist and The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Sullivan has been publishing the first of these since the late 1960s, nearly 40 years ago. Very few others have been continuously editing an advisory newsletter for any where close to that long a period.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/long-time-bull-turns-bearish/story.aspx?guid=%7B13831378%2DD85D%2D4AEC%2DBFBF%2DD289224E9620%7D
That could be a great contrary indicator.
Anything worthy of Hulbert’s attention must have a contrarian flavor to it by definition.
I know that Donald Trump is a blowhard whose business acumen is essentially a p.r. scam. That being said, I saw some clips yesterday of his interview with Cavuto. He used the word depression to describe American real estate with the temporary exception of Manhattan (of course), and recession to describe the rest of the economy. Will this make it more acceptable to use these words on the business/news channels? As much as Trump is annoying, I do not think that you can characterize him as irrelevant. He is certainly not a member of the “doom and gloom” crowd, whom Cavuto et al. enjoy ridiculing and dismissing, regardless of their accuracy. Interesting.
Of course, Manhattan is an exception. Prices here will will remain on a high ledge forever. All the 28,000 new condos priced at $500K and above will be occupied because we are special.
If you don’t buy now, you will be a renter forever and be forced to forage the scraps off the pavement.
Buy now or be priced out forever.
I am sure the emergency bipartisan scramble to fix the economy will produce prudent measures that will put the bad credit crunch genie back into the bottle. Meanwhile, I am trying to think of the ways one might spend that $500 tax rebate:
1) Buy my nicest child an extra IPod
2) Send a couple of family members to Disney Land
3) Go out to eat ten extra times this year
4) Save the money (nah…)
And BTW, I am wondering if it might be possible going forward to amend the U.S. Constitution to formalize the absorption of the Fed into the Executive Branch of our government?
Bipartisan scramble to avoid recession
Bush, Congress discuss speedy $500 tax rebates
By Jeannine Aversa and Andrew Taylor
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON – United on urgent action, the White House and Congress raced toward emergency steps yesterday to rescue the national economy from a possible recession, including tax rebates of at least $500 a person – and maybe as much as $800. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke endorsed the idea of putting money into the hands of those who would spend it quickly and boost the flagging economy.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080118/index.html
I’d probably spend it on a sealed bucket of wheat and a stone grinder.
I’ll put it in DD’s college fund. It will get spent in 15 years.
… those who would spend it quickly:
that must be the Wall Street banksters and their hedgie friends; they will spend the stuff within seconds from the moment the FED dreams it up out of thin air. Magic and instant gratification!!
Why can’t they just put a “-500″ before the “taxes you owe” line on next year’s 1040? Wouldn’t that be a lot cheaper to implement.
I try to plan my taxes so I underpay by the 10% the law allows during the year on my estimated payments, and make it up on 4/15.
It’s the “cheapest” way to pay your taxes. But I’m in the minority on this….Harry Howmuchamonth looks at getting a tax refund as a windfall lottery winning!
That’s what I do too. Except I do it by more than 10% and then fight over it.
Ahhhhh, hence the yearly IRS fights.
When can I catch those on the USA channel? Before or after the WWF? I would pay to see TXChick in leather bra headlocking the IRS commisioner Linda Stiff (also in leather bra).
You into IRS&M?
LOL
You can actually do this (underpay by more than 10%) if you owe more taxes than you did last year. I never bank on that though, so I figure I’d owe the same.
But i let my accountant work out the details
interesting … in the Netherlands you can overpay; many companies do, as the tax office pays 5.25% interest rates on the money you overpaid (until the date they officially know what your tax is going to be, then you get back the overpaid tax plus interest). That 5.25% is 1-1.5% more than you get from the bank, plus the government is a more reliable creditor
It works this way because they charge you interest for the amount/time that you underestimate your taxes …
“The consensus forecast calls for the economy to slow to roughly a 1% annual rate in the first half of this year, and then accelerate to a 2.5% pace in the second half. This view is based on the assumption that the Federal Reserve is on the job, providing considerable stimulus to the pipeline. The Fed’s support, it is argued, will allow the economy to overcome headwinds mentioned earlier. The LEI, however, suggests this conventional wisdom is faulty since it is still accelerating to the downside. In the twelve months ending November, the LEI [Leading Economic Indicators] fell .9%, the steepest drop since the recession year of 2001. The ratio of coincident to lagging economic indicators, also a leading indicator of economic conditions, contracted an even greater 1.1% over this span. Historically, the LEI has turned positive on average seven to eight months prior to economic accelerations. No such signal is in sight, so there is little support for strengthening economic activity in the latter half of 2008.”
Hoisington Investment Management
Probably a decent day trade shorting now figuring they’ll light off the programs when Bush comes on. Not to be confused with longer term which is probably close to the bottom. Gonna try it. I’ve been cold lately on short term, so the market will probably rally. LOL
Lining up puts for COF earning’s call on Jan 23.
I’m entering a stop on the short daytrade now in case the gubbmint doesn’t lay an egg.
This one is for you Tx!
“If there is one growth story in Asia that has a hope of decoupling from the reverberations spreading globally from the meltdown of structured finance, it is probably the Indian investment cycle.”
Christopher Woods
Greed and Fear
This bounce looks weak to me, so far………
gap filled. let’s see what the bears wanna do now.
Hoz, CFC is back to my buy in price. Unfreakingreal.
Say, that’s about where I chickened out last week after snagging some the day before - missed the BAC bounce - but that’s better than the suckas that bought afterwards!
TTT Actions done to prevent a massive breakdown in the financials and reality sets in and suggests that BAC cannot afford to go through with the takeunder (not because they do not have the stock to transact, but because BAC is jeopardizing its existence). As the counterparties go under, the hedged positions of Citigroup and BAC look less hedged.
If Countrywide had been allowed to go under without any outside force acting upon it, the next banks to go would have been WAMU and then the larger banks would get clobbered Wachovia, Citigroup and BAC in short order.
For any interested parties there is a good correlation between Case-Schiller housing and the bank index. Whether it is a coincidence, je ne sais.
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/rfs/542221030.html
This chick has been posting this ad every 2 days for almost a year now. Those of you who live in Northern Virginia know that this is a ripoff.
Of course, over a half-million dollars, plus $400/month HOA and $350/month taxes for a 978 square foot condo is a great deal. This includes granite, a couch, AND linens.
BTW, 214 is a Dallas area code. Who is this lady? Lots of stuff comes up when you google her phone number.
Hmmm. . . a refrigerator in Fort Worth.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/hsh/536052186.html
My theory. . . she is a serial condo flipper and now she must sell her kitchen appliances.
Nice location, but no way it will sell at that price. There’s a LOT of new inventory around the Clarendon Metro stop, and more on its way, judging by the construction.
Just checked with our local credit union on the status of lending in Eastern WA (Pullman specifically).
PITI / gross monthly income: 50% tops, most not approved above 45%
Downpayment: 20% or PMI
FICO: Fees if less than 680
Jumbo: 1.4% higher rate than conforming (didn’t check other requirements, FICO, income ratio, etc…)
So somethings are tightening up, but they are still lending with very high PITI/gross income ratios. I run 45% for myself and gasp… If anything goes wrong, these folks have zero margin for error.
Mortgage Brokers, RIP
http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/01/16/mortgage-brokers-rip
Countrywide is (was?) one of the largest remaining mortgage operations with an active wholesale lending channel; while Countrywide has repeatedly said it is committed to brokers, BofA has a decidedly different view, having shuttered wholesale last year.
No one has talked yet about this, but you can bet that BofA will take steps to pull CFC out of the wholesale mortgage origination channel. And that will definitely be felt.
mkts dropping so fast now that my ES futures daytrade gain way outpacing losses on spec calls. crazy
Is there ever a bounce in place today?
So much for the value of using bull$h!t to fertilize money trees.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
I just stopped myself out on the short. Very nice gain, totally hedged my bleeding long positions.
12000 DJIA floor or more bust…
Today’s Chart of the Day shows the S&P breaking downside resistance.
Good quote of the day, too.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20080118.htm?T
I was looking at the situation today and thinking how much of this comes from the “free trade” we have now.
Basically all labor and technology jobs are competing with India, China and elsewhere.
Those coutries treat workers like complete and total crap. The only time we have anything good (for most of us working people) is when its brand spanking new technology and too difficult to transfer.
After a few years poof; technology transfered overseas and workers/engineers/scientists are laid off. Genetic technology, military, agricultural, industries that can’t be outsourced (construction) are limping along but everything else goes away.
When the economists talk about restricting trade being bad for the economy; I wonder what they mean. Will it really be bad for the vast majority of us or only for the 1% of the population that is rich?
Overall, I think dealing with the slave labor state of China is a horrid mistake, has weakened us from a national security stand point and worsened the econmy so that most of us are dependant on the bubble economy.
We spend a lot of time bashing the financial industry and real estate people… but by in large those are just attractive high paying jobs. I think most of the people going in are in no way aware of macro economics and that they are chasing bubbles and inflation.
Anyhow seems like the free trade and technology transfer will slow down soon and inflation in China (or relative to deflation in the US) will help equalize things.
There should be a long chaotic period where we try to reorganize manufacturing in the US.
Hope for some good leadership that understands that we need to work on competativeness along with REAL free trade. That is wher China pays workers a real living wage, honors patents, pays for software exc… Not this most favored nation status BULL ca ca.
Funny to see that Clinton was the guy that pushed for this too. Uhg.
Neither party will help us. Its day trades and bubble chasing for all now.
I make mental wagers when I buy/short several stocks in the same industry. Like which one will get to 100 first etc.
a couple of my mental wagers were
BAC would get to $30 before WB -not looking good there.
C would get to $25 before WFC - won that one.
New wagers C to $10 before WM to $8
BAC to $25 before WB gets to $25.
Keeps me trying to think.
Everybody have a great weekend - to friggin cold to 4-wheel
Go Packers. (The Bears still suck!)
Go Packers. (The Bears still suck!)
I’m on your side on this one. Until the Super Bowl is over, of course. At that point I will have to decide whether to hate the Packers or buy a home. Make a mental wager on which one of those is more likely
FYI, it’s Bolts vrs. Pats — no Bears in the Bowl (but many in the market).
January 18, 2008 1:18 P.M.EST
BULLETIN
Bush stimulates the bears
Hopes of pulling out of the worst three-day slump in five years fade as financials drive Dow to turn negative, despite gains from GE, IBM. Stimulus data fails to calm investors.
marketwatch.com
The true name of the Green Bay Packers is:
The Green Bay Packers (the Bears still suck)
http://tinyurl.com/2h9wym
Youtube
The Bears still suck Polka
Contrarian signal:
Bush says stimulus should be ‘1 percent of GDP’
15 hours ago
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gowRmJgQnFlNYXiTAfOgTkmM6WjA
P.S. From whence cometh stimulus moneys in the amount of 1 pct of GDP?
The CIC looks perplexed (click fast while the image lasts)…
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Stimulus maths:
GDP = $13,970.5 bn (Q3 2007 rate)
1 pct of GDP = $1,397.1 bn
($1,397,100,000 thousand) / ( 114,384 thousand US households) =
$12 ,214 per household.
Please check my maths, as I thought the plan was for $500 worth of stimulus per tax return? Besides that, as NYCityBoy has wryly noted, I am not all that good at arithmetic…
Data sources:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2006.html
Your math is wrong
should be ~$140B
Thanks — I was about to post on that. I guess NYCityBoy is right — I should stay out of the arithmetic business if I can’t get my decimals to line up correctly . (Now I know why I am not an accountant!)
For the record, the (hopefully) corrected estimate of stimulus per hh is:
$139,710,000,000 / 114,384,000 US households =
$1,221.41 per household.
To put that estimated $1200 per hh stimulus estimate into perspective, I recently estimated that the median-priced San Diego home has been draining home equity at a rate of $9000 per month since last May.
I listed my house when the UT stated if you own a home in san diego your making $2300 a day.. may of 04.. a little early but never to late!
At least I am not the only market commentator who cannot do arithmetic… I guess the extra umph is supposed to come in when it turns out the stimulus is twice bigger “than expected”?
MARKETWATCH hits the streets
What would you do with an extra $600?
latest news
Paulson says to meet with Congress on stimulus immediately
Bush calls for ‘direct and rapid’ stimulus
Package equal to about 1% of GDP envisioned by White House
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:43 p.m. EST Jan. 18, 2008
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bush-calls-rapid-direct-stimulus/story.aspx?guid=%7BCB78A548%2DE2D3%2D4799%2DB1AD%2DC0EF741D16AB%7D
The “latest news” from marketwatch.com is trippy…
latest news
Paulson won’t comment on dollar amount of individual breaks
latest news
Paulson says long-term U.S. economic fundamentals strong
latest news
Short-term economic risks are to ‘downside’, Paulson says
latest news
Bush sees ‘broad consensus’ for economic stimulus package
latest news
Bush calls for ‘direct and rapid’ tax relief
latest news
Growth package must not include tax increases: Bush
latest news
Bush: There is risk of economic downturn
latest news
U.S. leading indicators point to continuing slow growth
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bush-calls-rapid-direct-stimulus/story.aspx?guid=%7BCB78A548%2DE2D3%2D4799%2DB1AD%2DC0EF741D16AB%7D
Gee, this looks like they - Paulson, Bernanke, W, Hill and Bill, The Orange One, Fun Yuns - all want to avoid a catastrophe. I really don’t think it can be finessed away. The problem is too big. This will unravel the credit markets in a way that will not allow the US to ever regain the level that it is at now. Of course, if we had not borrowed to the point our great, great, grand children can’t pay it all back, then we would regain that level within a short time.
Oh well.
Roidy
Nothing beats watching a bunch of pols trying frantically to cook up a quick bipartisan fix for a financial meltdown that was at least a decade in the making…many of these hapless folks most likely just figured out there was a problem within the past 1/2 year…
Oops!
Some lawmakers and officials are pressing for tax-rebate checks of at least 300 dollars per taxpayer, with some lawmakers seeking as much as 800 dollars per person or 1,600 dollars per household.
With recession fears rising fast, Bush and Republican lawmakers appeared willing to make a big concession to Democrats by accepting legislation that did not include an extension of Bush’s tax cuts, which the White House has been seeking.
Democrats, meanwhile, signaled willingness to suspend their own budget rules and accept a tax break without first figuring out how to pay for it.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gowRmJgQnFlNYXiTAfOgTkmM6WjA
Here ya go, Stucco.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/commentary/birger_clinton.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008011617
The big chill candidate. (Since the frigidity program worked so well on Bill, think what it could do for the entire U.S. mortgage market.
Where Clinton goes awry is her proposal to freeze mortgage rates for five years, which is essentially a much broader version of a deal President Bush recently hammered out with lenders to assist some subprime borrowers.
now i know why Bank of America bought countrywide.
US consumers face falling bank deposit rates
Meanwhile, the sale of Countrywide to Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) will mark the end of a lender that has led an aggressive push by the banking industry for deposits. This has led to higher rates, and crimped lending margins and profits to a degree many analysts considered irrational.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN1831499520080118?rpc=44
I know that I pulled out $5,000 to hold in cash, “just in case”. If enough people do that we could see some higher yields.
We’re closing our BoA account whenever my wife gets around to it ;). They are paying me 0.25% interest when inflation is running North of 4% so they can afford to double down on CFC “assets” .
bought the XLF for a trade. heck, it based for an entire hour.
From this Sunday’s New York Times Magazine
The Education of Ben Bernanke
By ROGER LOWENSTEIN
Published: January 20, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/37t8oc
“… (Mr.) Volcker was the Fed chief who preceded Greenspan and who conquered, painfully, the great inflation of the 1970s and early ’80s. (He was chairman from 1979 to 1987.) “Too many bubbles have been going on for too long,” Volcker added. “The Fed is not really in control of the situation.”…
“When Genius Failed” Lowenstein’s account of the LTCM debacle.
An excellent breakdown.
the breakdowns that are happening are critical counter-party insovlency issues.. credit is contracting at a rapid pace, I had to downgrade and letter2 business that I deal with, LOWER THE BAR, I carry 60 days….beyond that throw yourself on the mercy of the court.
all this talk about pick up some tier ones, short term 4-6 weeks trades fueled by TAF and FED cutting, not to mention the so-called register ringin stimulus…..its fallin down, structured finance, bowing out the last of the US “Its different here” than the euphoria being experienced economicaly in the emerging..
But, and there is always a butt…. the testing of the de-coupling is now underway……make it hurt, cuz its the last hope of the dollar…
we need to learn, through the pain.
today’s also a great day to buy the ^HUI 420-425, with a tight stop, and hedging overnight risk via futes
Forgot to post this in the AM…
DQNews has the LA Times numbers for Los Angeles and other SoCal counties for December (year over year, etc.).
The damage (single family houses, median $, year over year):
Los Angeles County: -9.1%
The OC: -9.8%
Riverside County: -20.5%
San Bernardino County: -21.4%
San Diego County: -13%
Ventura County: -12.9%
Santa Barbara County: -26%
Again, these are median prices, year over year, sales mix can heavily influence the number, yada yada yada, but, like wow! Take a look at those numbers (changes from last year)…
Santa Barbara County — OOF!
PB,
yesterday you asked if there was a fund or investment tool for your father.
If he is going to be semi-active in many markets, then - perhaps - ProFunds. It is where I park. (I have not been in it for a few months, many opportunities abound). What is suitable for me, myself and I is not suitable for any and or all investors.
http://tinyurl.com/2qxlek
My dad has no interest in spending his remaining time on the planet worrying about trading stocks — he has other priorities to pursue. I am looking for a lazy portfolio strategy which protects him against the risk that stock market inflation will devalue his savings before his time is up. Thanks for the suggestion!
PB
A good place to park your money and fogetaboutit…
PRPFX
Decent returns even during a down market.
YMMV
Capitalizing on the Shrinking Dollar
When the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark federal funds rate a half percentage point in mid-September, the U.S. dollar plunged to a record low against the euro, extending a decline that began in 2002.
Despite the dollar’s protracted retreat, many believe its descent is far from over.
What’s Ailing the Dollar?
http://www.profunds.com/ProFundsOverview/HotTopics/Content/CapitalizingShrinkingDollar.fs
russian roulette with the $
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9241.htm
this is strong advice for those willing to stomach the unnerving world of managing money that you may or may not ever spend.
Contra Hour T minus 15 minutes
coiled spring at SPX 1320
Mr. Market wants to take another dump. What’s stopping him?
looks like the laxative finally kicked in!
LOL! I just heard Pualson on Bloomberg. Man, talk about scared Sh!tle$$. The Prez, Congress, Blues and Reds, they are all going into the “throne”.
Roidy
Writedowns Surpass $100 Billion
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/01/18/writedowns-surpass-100-billion/?mod=yahoo_hs
does anyone remember what the original $ amount of write-offs were supposed to be according to paulston?
$100 bn according to BB (last July?)
We are already there…
Wow, havent read a full thread in awhile.
Ben, your blog is changing.
that was awesome. (took me over an hour.)
Mortgage company exec jumps to death
MARLTON, N.J. - An executive of a collapsed subprime mortgage lender jumped to his death from a bridge Friday, shortly after his wife’s body was found inside their New Jersey home, authorities said.
…
Walter Buczynski was a vice president of Columbia, Md.-based Fieldstone Mortgage Co., a high-flying subprime mortgage lender that made $5.5 billion in mortgage loans and employed about 1,000 people as late as 2006.