2007 Was Just The Beginning
The Denver Post reports from Colorado. “The top economist for the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday offered a positive prognosis for the Denver-area housing market. While the housing market is in the dumps nationally, it’s important to remember that all real estate is local, Lawrence Yun told…the Jefferson County Association of Realtors. ‘It’s nonsensical to concentrate on the national figure,’ Yun said. ‘Local information is far more relevant.’”
“‘There’s too much focus on the national figures,’ Yun said. ‘National figures can dampen consumer confidence.’”
“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”
“Bob Golden, CEO of the Colorado Association of Realtors, said most of what Yun said doesn’t surprise him. ‘We’ve had a dip, and it’s likely we’ll pull out of it,’ Golden said. ‘As long as you’re staying in a home for the long haul, appreciation up and down doesn’t have a dramatic effect if you’re not using it as a cash vehicle.’”
The Rocky Mountain News from Colorado. “‘The one thing that may be holding back your market is buyer pessimism,’ Yun said. ‘I think for your housing market it is irrational pessimism. You have very strong affordability.’”
“He did say, however, that the number of foreclosures, which set a record in the metro area in 2007, will continue to rise this year. But he still expects overall housing appreciation in the Denver area this year to be 4 percent to 5 percent. Also, a recession would mean further cuts in mortgage rates, which would make Denver housing even more attractive, he said.”
“Jim Smith, owner of Golden Real Estate, called Yun’s talk ‘fascinating.’ ‘The facts speak for themselves,’ he said.”
“One in every 19 homes in Adams County entered foreclosure in 2007, by far the highest rate in the metro area. The Adams County foreclosure rate hit a record 5.2 percent in 2007, according to an analysis by the Colorado Association of Realtors.”
“‘While foreclosure properties are of serious concern, the sky is not falling,’ Greg Zadel, president of the state’s Association of Realtors, said in a memo.”
“Although a record 26,386 foreclosures were filed in the metro area area last year, he noted that there are far more homes in the metro area than 20 years ago.”
“The city and county of Denver had a 3.4 percent foreclosure rate. It showed a 62 percent increase from the 2.1 percent foreclosure rate, by far the largest percentage increase in the metro area.”
“Carol Snyder, Adams County public trustee, said that the foreclosure problems may continue into early 2010. Many adjustable rate mortgages are still going to reset to higher rates, she said.”
“‘I think, unfortunately, this is something that is going to get worse before it gets better,’ she said.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Spending on new homes in the Tucson area dropped by more than $567 million in 2007, according local consultant John Strobeck. The total amount spent on new homes last year was about $1.67 billion, down about 25 percent from the previous year, likely the steepest drop in more than a decade, Strobeck said.”
“‘It virtually has not decreased any year until now,’ said Strobeck, owner of Bright Future Business Consultants.”
“Permit activity for new homes also hit a low in 2007, falling to 5,098 — slightly below the number in 1996, the report said. The number of new homes sold in December fell to 496, down by 40 percent from the same month a year before, the report said. Median and average prices for new homes also dropped in December to $220,000 and $275,000, respectively.”
“Resale closings also showed a steep drop of about 35 percent from the same month a year ago, the report said. Resale median and average prices also fell compared with December 2006.”
The Arizona Republic. “‘The bottom of the housing market may occur in 2008 or 2009, but a full recovery will probably take three to five years,’ said Elliott Pollack, an Arizona economist and real-estate investor. ‘This slowdown ends when housing prices stabilize, and they will. Unfortunately, the worst is still ahead of us.’”
“‘Many of us thought last year would be the worst for the housing market, but 2007 was just the beginning, due largely to the credit crunch,’ said John Chadwick, president of builder Pulte’s Southwest operations.”
“Foreclosures are the big wild card for the housing market. A record 10,000 metro Phoenix houses were foreclosed on in 2007.”
“‘It’s going to be ugly, ugly, ugly this year,’ Pollack said. ‘But in five years, this will all be a bad memory.’”
The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Home prices could bottom out at the end of this year or early 2009, though a full recovery could take three to five years, Pollack said.”
“Some 57,000 homes — roughly 24,000 of them vacant — are for sale in the metro Phoenix market, he said. And the credit crunch has shrunk the buyer pool by 20 percent, and slower population growth could reduce it by another 20 percent, he said.”
“‘Things are getting tougher, not easier,’ when it comes to mortgage loans, he said.”
“The number of Arizonans filing for bankruptcy protection last year was up more than 60 percent over 2006, according to the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of Arizona.”
“However with a dramatic increase in foreclosures, an increasing number of homeowners found themselves too deeply in debt for bankruptcy to be an option, said Terrence Miller, clerk of the court.”
“‘What attorneys are saying anecdotally is … it just doesn’t make financial sense for them to file because they’re too far gone, that bankruptcy can’t help them,’ he said.”
“Statewide, bankruptcy filings totaled 10,570 in 2007, up from 6,479 in the previous year. In the Valley, filings totaled 7,204, up from 4,419 in the previous year.”
“Anthony Clark, a bankruptcy attorney with offices in Mesa and Phoenix, said he’s fielded a number of calls from homeowners asking how they can complete a foreclosure on their home rather than try to save it through bankruptcy proceedings.”
“‘It’s a sign of the times where so many Valley homeowners are under water in their homes,’ he said. ‘We’re seeing a lot of people walk away from their homes, especially in Queen Creek and the west Valley. I would attribute it to overbuilding and overgrowth.’”
The Associated Press on Nevada. “Nevada’s foreclosure crisis claimed a high-profile victim Wednesday, as investment bank Deutsche Bank took the first step toward foreclosing on the $3 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino project on the Las Vegas Strip.”
“Developer and owner Ian Bruce Eichner said his company was working with Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch to find new investors. The construction loan of $760 million went into default Wednesday, the company said.”
“‘This action by our lender comes as no surprise,’ Eichner said in a statement to The Associated Press. ‘With the current challenges within the real estate and debt capital markets, which are out of our control … we both anticipated and planned for this.’”
“The 2,998-room high-rise casino and hotel is under construction and due to open in late 2009 between the Bellagio casino resort and the CityCenter casino complex. Most of the units were condo-hotel rooms, which allow buyers to rent out the residences to hotel guests and split a fee with the resort management.”
“That led some observers to speculate that the project may have suffered from the weakening condominium market. But the company said demand for the units was strong, with 84 percent of the 2,184 units sold, and added that it was not the cause of the financing problem.”
“Sales of condo units and town houses plummeted in December, down 55 percent from a year earlier to 167 units, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”
“‘The state of the luxury-condominium market is somewhat challenging,’ said Applied Analysis principal Brian Gordon. ‘The question remains: Is this a project-specific issue or is it a market issue?’”
The Las Vegas Business Press from Nevada. “The Las Vegas Valley’s industrial market softened in the fourth quarter as vacancies rose and rents dropped. The trickle-down impact from a hemorrhaging housing market and accompanying credit crunch are taking their toll.”
“There was 831,000 square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter. There was 2.2 million square feet of new completions in the fourth quarter, with another 3.1 million square feet under construction.”
“‘We started to see a slowdown at the end of the second quarter 2007, which we expect to see continue through mid-2008,’ said Daniel Doherty, senior VP of Colliers International’s Industrial Division. ‘There is a big spin-off due to the dramatic drop in the residential market. But everyone is feeling that the construction on the Strip will pull us out of it once some of the hotel rooms come online.’”
The Salt Lake Tribune from Utah. “It started out on a good note, but 2007 ended up as one of the worst years ever for home building along the Wasatch Front.”
“Builders took out permits for the construction of 9,877 single-family homes along the Wasatch Front last year, the lowest level since 1993, according to Construction Monitor.”
“And the nearly 36 percent drop in permitting activity from 2006-2007 is one of the Wasatch Front’s worst yearly drops ever - it tops any percentage loss since 1990, when the service began tracking permitting activity in the state.”
“Unlike Utah, where the slowdown began in earnest just eight months ago, many other housing markets already have been in a downturn for a year or more.”
“One major culprit for the bad home-building year are the tighter lending standards. Another culprit is the cumulative effect of years of house-price increases that have put homeownership out of reach of more families, including those in Utah.”
“‘It’s really affected the [demand for the] $350,000 to $800,000 price range,’ said Jordan Bangerter, president of the Salt Lake Home Builders Association. ‘There just aren’t that many people that can afford that type of house payment now.’”
“Bangerter said he doesn’t believe that the Wasatch Front is as overbuilt as the Phoenix or Las Vegas metro areas, which have been hit hard by the downturn and have seen their economies suffer as a result. Still, he said, challenges for his industry in Utah loom.”
“‘Our industry is trying to adjust to meet demand for less expensive housing,’ he said. That’s a difficult challenge, he said, given that the public - and cities - prefer bigger and bigger homes.”
“Mark Knold, chief economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said about 2,200 people in construction industry in the state filed for unemployment benefits in December 2007 up from only 1,300 in December 2006. ‘That’s a pretty big jump in unemployment claims related to the construction industry,’ he said.”
“Knold said there has been some spillover into other industries. A number of mortgage companies, for example, have shed some workers in recent months. ‘You have to think if we’re not selling as many houses, we’re not going to need as many mortgage people, title or real estate people,’ Knold said.”
‘The question remains: Is this a project-specific issue or is it a market issue?’”
I also have a question: “How soon will it be when you can get a Vegas room for $20.00 & a $5.00 egg & bacon & sausage & pancake & hash brown with coffee?”
I hear ya. Nowadays, all they keep saying is, more hotel rooms are coming, that will save us. ??
‘Vegas room for $20.00′
- That reminds me of the late 70’s. Last night Cramer was advising that everyone sell the ‘Casinos’.
When I drive up to Victorville to visit my mother the traffic to Vegas has dropped off a lot over the last 9 months. Joe / Juan have blown their wad and are done.
Last night Cramer was mugging it up with The Donald. Jimbo is everywhere!
“The 2,998-room high-rise casino and hotel is under construction and due to open in late 2009 between the Bellagio casino resort and the CityCenter casino complex.”
Yeah just what they need, another high rise hotel. Used to be a nice place 40 years ago. Oh, and the best deal was 88 cents steak and eggs at the El Cortez..
The rooms already are $15-$20 per night.
I have a good friend that is a regular at the casinos.
Card-player when time permits ( alot of the time), statistician when forced to really work.
He was in Vegas last week. Booked rooms on price.something.com and got rooms for $30 per night, but then got a free night for every night he stayed.
It was the cheapest vacation he ever had.
And now………..they are building more hotel rooms.
Good Plan!!
‘Booked rooms on price.something.com and got rooms for $30 per night, but then got a free night for every night he stayed.’
A new snowbird paradigm.
I think the realtor association should shut Yun up. He’s already destroyed any credibility that the association had, which wasn’t much to begin with. Yun and the whole association have become a laughing stock. Who would believe anything they have to say anymore. Their predictions have been so far off base that it’s a joke.
The sad thing is that Yun is a step up from Lereah, which is like saying Joe Isuzu is better than Baghdad Bob….
At least with Joe Isuzu there was a caption under him that reiterated what we all knew: “He’s lying”.
Yun should come with captions as well.
‘Joe Isuzu’ “it will go 200 miles per hour”
‘[caption] “Yeah, Downhill in a hurricane”
Yun’ “Housing will appreciate 4 or 5 percent in 2008″
{caption} “Yeah, if the saudi royal family buys the state of Colorado”
And Baghdad Bob was hilarious.
And where are they both now?
I think Yun should run around the meeting rooms, throw glitter at the assembled realWhores and reporters, and claim his “magic pixie dust” will reinvigorate the market. ‘Cause he’s definitely snorting some magic pixie dust if he thinks Colorado is going to see any appreciation this year.
He told FL that 4 or 6 months ago. He hasn’t been right yet. Actually I’d be embarassed if I were him. Can’t believe no one questions him at these meetings.
Panel: Brace for recession
BY CARI MERRILL
CariMerrill@coloradoan.com
GREELEY - If economists are right, Northern Colorado and the state need to brace for a recession that may last six months or well into 2009.
A four-person panel at the Northern Colorado Business Report’s annual economic forecast on Tuesday predicted increases in all of the wrong places, such as unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies.
“Some people say you need to hear things three times for it to sink in,” said Martin Shields, associate professor of economics at Colorado State University and the third presenter of the day who brought the same dismal news to the table.
It doesn’t look good for the year, and Shields warned the recovery may not be as quick or as healthy as some people expect.
And with regional employment trends mirroring the nation with “more gusto,” Shields said, the region will also “crash a little harder.”
“These economies move together, so what happens on the national level will have an effect on the local level,” he added.
Tucker Hart Adams, president of the Adams Group Inc., an economic consulting firm, is predicting a recession for Northern Colorado. The last time she predicted a recession was in the late 1990s with the dot.com bust.
“There’s nothing but bad news out there,” she said in regards to the housing market and low confidence levels among home builders.
“It’s very hard to find any good news on a macro basis. I think it’s 50/50 as to whether this will be a mild recession or a major recession.”
Housing permits and automobile sales will continue to decline as credit tightens and people are unwilling or unable to make those purchases, Adams predicts.
While some may think the subprime fallout has hit rock bottom, regional economist John Green predicted the worst is yet to come as even more adjustable-rate mortgages reset this year.
Single-family detached housing permits are on the decline, new sales-tax accounts haven’t changed much since 2004, entrepreneurs don’t have confidence in the economy and all of that is topped off by a relatively weak Christmas retail season, Green said.
This forum spoke on January 14, 2008 just North of Denver and except for Adams, they are notoriously optimistic . . . who do you believe?
So Yun’s in Denver preaching sunshine and roses, and these economists in Greely are calling for gloom and doom?
I know weather on the front range is unpredictable, but this seems to be a little much.
Last night on TV they showed a map with FL, CA, AZ, NV, MI all, already in a recession. Then they showed other states that would be soon. OH was the only one I remember. The problem with OH is that it’s never picked up since the 01 recession. It’s just plodded along, so no one may know the difference if a recession hits.
The real estate market is always doing great in the location in which Yun is giving a speech.
Denver is only affordable compared to CA. If you want to raise a family on a “middle” income the entire Denver metro area is still a tough sell. It isn’t insane, but it’s still tough for a family to make it here unless the bought well before 2000. I bought in ‘96 and got into a dinky 1000 square foot house for $102k. That may sound cheap, but it’s a small house for a family (3/1) and I sold it in ‘98 for $120k. When I looked at moving back to Denver in 2000 prices had gone up even more even in the really dangerous areas.
Denver IS overpriced. Denver is NOT affordable for many of the people who live and work there.
Even here on the HBB, most of us are very well off. Most folks are not. The real world looks a whole lot different on $30k/ year and less. There’s a whole bunch of folks in Denver in that range.
“He’s already destroyed any credibility that the association had, which wasn’t much to begin with.”
Already done before Yun assumed his post. Yun is doing his best to maintain the reputation he inherited from his predecessor.
Yun is doing his best to maintain the reputation he inherited from his predecessor.
And I might add, Yun is doing an excellent job of continuing the reputation and the NAR’s lack of credibility! Keep up the good work Yun, you should be proud!
Lawrence Yun is a spokehole for the Realtwhores.
”
Lawrence Yun is the Managing Director of Quantitative Research at the National Association of REALTORS®, where he manages the Statistics and Forecasting Groups of the Research Division. He writes regular columns on real estate market trends, creates NAR’s forecasts, and participates in many economic forecasting panels, including Blue Chip and Harvard University Industrial Economist Council. ”
http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/public/workshops/rewbios/212130.htm
Everyone should take anything that flies out of his mouth with a plateful of salt.
“Jim Smith, owner of Golden Real Estate, called Yun’s talk ‘fascinating.’ ‘The facts speak for themselves,’ he said.”
Here’s a fact: The design center for one of the major home builders in the Denver area is no longer open on Saturdays for people to come in and pick out their interior features because (and I quote) “Business is too slow for them to justify paying someone to come in on the weekends.” That’s directly from the design center’s owner.
Let me guess. Richmond American?
No… Ryland.
Yunspun B$
It is fun to see Yun go around to every single dang market in the country and give the same “everything is local” speech. Kind of defeats the purpose of saying that, no?
Another Fun-Yun:
“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”
Does he know that there are 3 more years of resets ahead? The NAR doesn’t know that people were still taking out idiot-loans early last year? What a moron.
I believe we are just past the peak sub-prime reset period, but have not even seen the start or the option and alt-a resets, which will kick in in a big way in 2008 - 2009, so right about the time sub-prime is past and has don it’s damage, resets for folks who PREVIOUSLY had good credit will be kicking in. When they do, these folks unlike their sub-prime friends will be loaded with credit card debt, theri mortgage will have grown and their property price will have fallen, so by the time the bank gets their property, they will be looking at losses ten times bigger for each FB than we are seeing with sub-prime.
Loans will then get really hard to get (IMPACTING) real estate transactions in a big way.
Lending still hasn’t returned to traditional standards: PITI 28% of gross monthly documented stable income, 20% down (minimum, 30-40% in bubbly markets), and evidence that the downpayment has actually been saved.
When traditional lending standards return (or if we overshoot), I’ll consider buying.
Ditto. And when the topic-du-jour isn’t real estate (ie - “the best path to riches is through real estate.”)
If everything is OK… they WHY is the Bush administration admonishing the lending industry for not doing enough… & is threatening gov’t intervention if they don’t refi more loans to give FBs more affordable payments??
I thought all of the trouble was behind us….????
The number of jumbo loans that are some veriosn of interest-only shot to 66% of jumbos in the 1st qtr of ‘07.
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/research/MMNOTE11108.pdf
The rise in the number of such loans began in ‘03.
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/WorkingPapers/workingpaper071.pdf
(You want Table # 4 on page 12 of the document which is page 16 by the Adobe counter.)
Happy reading.
‘The one thing that may be holding back your market is buyer pessimism,’ Yun said.
Well, that and the brand-new requirement of a downpayment.
More to point, does he know who it is who facilitates FB’s ability to obtain loans???
Plus Yun has no clue that massive foreclosures are going to affect house prices…sarcasm off.
This clown is actually an economist? Paid for or not, that’s ludicrous.
“You will find that the truth is often unpopular and the contest between agreeable fancy and disagreeable fact is unequal. For, in the vernacular, we Americans are suckers for good news.”
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
Mention bad news, and you will be labeled as “negative” and that you “lack a can do attitude”.
Yes, and those who apply those labels will never admit that realists do all the heavy lifting.
And reap only the bread crumbs of the rewards. As I explained to my kids, the path to being wealthy lies, unfortunately, in being a dealmaker. You won’t get rich by being industrious. You get rich by making deals, especially deals where the taxpayer picks up most of the tab.
Developers make deals to subdivide land, but tax payers pick up the tab for most of the infrastructure. Sure, the developer picks up the tab for paving the streets and laying sewer lines, but the taxpayers pick up everything else. If developers are asked to help pay for other things like schools, sewage plants, wider roads to handle the increased traffic, etc.,then they whine that the community is “business unfriendly”
Not true in most areas. Depends on the state and local laws but impact fees will help cover a large portion (if not all) of police, fire, schools, etc. Development pays it’s own way is a concept that has taken hold in most areas. Of course, in cruddy areas that are trying to “force” development the powers that be will pull strings, Urban Renewal Districts (URD’s), tax incentives, and just stright theft. I see this reaction alot in my line of work. City Planner. I’m seeing a bump up in permits for SFDUhere after 2 months of NOTHING. I think it is the dead cat bounce, myself!
Like I said, in places were developers are held accountable they cry foul. Out here the growth has been in “business friendly” cities, some which have tripled in size in just a few years. Of course you can get a house cheaper in say Johnstown, than in Loveland or Fort Collins.
I am also reminded of the local minor league hockey team (the Eagles). They got the taxpayers to fund a really nice arena for them (to be fair, it is used for concerts too). Again, a “deal” where the hockey teams owner benefits and the taxpayers, well, pay.
Good quote, aladinsane. Here’s a quote I live by:
“Sooner or later, everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.”
Robert Louis Stevenson
NAR is at the banquet table, imo.
We’re all at the table. They’re just among the food preparation staff.
Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds you plant.
- Robert Louis Stevenson
positive prognosis for the Denver-area housing market
how many years has denver been UP in the last 20 ?
has to be the most beat up RE market in the country
Denver (and Colorado in general) has never been able to shake it boom and bust economy. We have been in a bust since 2001, and the housing bubble here was fueled by toxic loans, especially in places like Greeley and some lower income parts of Denver.
In the past the boom/bust cycle had been tied to oil and energy in general. The big hope in the 90’s was that Denver’s economy was going to break out of the cycle as it diversified into telecom and high tech.
Unfortunately those two sectors went belly up, at least as far as local employment goes. IIRC we still haven’t got back to our 2001 IT or telecom employment levels.
Sun Microsystems built a huge campus in Broomfield in the 90’s. That campus is a virtual ghost town now, its huge parking lots are mostly empty (I’ll bet that their sites in India are packed).
And so the boom and bust cycle continues.
And that right there is the crux of the problem: as long as the people at the top use every chance they can to get rid of our jobs, there will be no recovery now that we’ve hit “Peak Debt” and debt can no longer be substituted for real income and real jobs.
You’re referring to the StorageTek campus, purchased by Sun a few years ago. The campus was sold last month to an unidentified buyer, but speculation is Google, Apple, or EBay. I have a twang of regret about selling my McMansion in neighboring Louisville in 2006, but my bank account smiles at me everyday.
IIRC, Sun built (or perhaps acquired) their campus that is south of the Boulder turnpike, whereas StorageTek was north of the turnpike. If course since Sun bought them out, I suppose that its all Sun now, even the the old StorageTek campus is still on “StorageTek Blvd”.
Hang on, you will probably be able to buy back your mcmansion for half price, in a foreclosure sale in a year or so.
Nah, took the cash and moved to the Virgin Islands. And yeah, it’s still “different here”.
Look even at the Alamo they told the few men we can win this thing,of course anybody associated with real estate is going to tell you it is a local thing and their area is the best location for a comeback, surprize surprize?
Yes. How did that work out?
Wait a minute… didn’t they say SLC was Differnent? They’re STILL saying Seattle is.
In other news… GWB wants to borrow $1600 from China et.al. so he can give it to my wife and I, in hopes that we’ll go buy more consumer crap with it. Hate to say this, but into savings it goes.
I’m think of perhaps starting a Krugerrand collection with that money.
To quote Neil, “No economic stimulus for you!”
Unfortunately for the economy, the posters on the blog have proven to be responsible and thoughtful. J6P does not seem to have those traits.
Most likely the stimulus will go to paying down debt. So, we, as a nation, borrow money, give it to our citizens who use it to repay other debts.
Is it just me, or is there something wrong with that picture?
From the movie They Live
Rich Lady: [into her alien watch/transmiter] I’ve got one that can see!
“the posters on the blog have proven to be responsible”
Speak for yourself… I’m in debt up to my eyeballs, working on a cash-out refi of my house as we speak.
Well, for me it is debt to my eyeballs… About 2.25x annual income if you count the house, debt from medical bills, debt from a custody battle, and student loans.
The cash out refi is really just to roll the exising mortgage (5.75) and the medical bills (8%) into a 15-year fixed at 4.75%.
YEAH, 4.75%!!! 1.25 discount and .75 origination.
SWEET!
Such a Red Queen mentality.
The self-reinforcing expections of realtors ( “Jim Smith, owner of Golden Real Estate, called Yun’s talk ‘fascinating.’ ‘The facts speak for themselves,’ he said.” ) of builders (“‘Our industry is trying to adjust to meet demand for less expensive housing,’ he said. That’s a difficult challenge, he said, given that the public - and cities - prefer bigger and bigger homes.” ) and their shills ( ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”) is something fasinating to watch.
They act like teenagers in a fast car with a belly full of booze: all loud talk and bravado, out of control, heading over the cliff - all the while looking in the rearview mirror checking out their hair. And these morons put Yun behind the wheel.
What a lovely post. Nicely put and ending with the image of a colorful explosion. Exactly what I like to read.
The facts speak for themselves
The facts DO speak for themselves. It’s just that Yun isn’t sharing the facts.
You want facts? Read here. You want pixie dust? Listen to Yun.
This is a great post. I am in Denver, and just blogged on this the other day. Even though appreciation in Denver is very little or perhaps 0%, it makes Denver a relatively strong real estate market compared to other areas. We didn’t go through the crazy appreciation that other areas did in the early 2000’s, so I think that helped us “recover” faster from the housing bust.
4-5% appreciation in 2008, I think, is optimistic to say the least, but I think the worst is behind us in the Denver market.
Yes, it’s different there. What are the rents like versus cost of buying? Remember, many folk from CO read here and can confirm.
that’s the same BS they fling about Texas. Next.
Yup.
Texans like Colorado, at least in the winter. Probably explains where they got it.
In Lodo rents are less than $2,000 for a property that would sell for $500,000 or more (with over $300 per month for HOA fees). Great great deal, huh? I dont understand the motives for the author, but can confirm the facts are wrong. They are asking in excess of $350 per square foot for condos in good areas. It’s freaking Denver ppl. No bubble here!
I’m staring at an empty Lodo loft right now. Prior tennant rented for $1600 a month. Guy has it on the market for $1.2 mil., and is “motivated”. No $hit, motivated.
renting a 3/2 in wash park for 1300 which would *list* for 450-500k
outta whack? check.
house i previously rented 1997 sale price 270k, 2005 (when we were kicked out and moved to the 1300er) sale price 525k.
outta whack? check and mate.
I have never understood the appeal of that area, unless you like to go to the zoo and Nat Hist museum a lot.
I think you are thinking Park Hill, as opposed to Wash Park. The appeal to me is bungalows and tudor style homes on tree lined streets. I find it so much more appealing than back-to-back synthetic stucco boxes.
I rented a place just outside Boulder (Louisville) for $2100/month. It’ll sell for $600k. I offered $300k, just to shake up my landlord.
Just added DEnver to the “its different list”….Keep dreaming…
Here ya go folks…a mortgage broker chiming in with how it’s different there.
Here in Detroit we didn’t have the crazy appreciation either, so is that helping us recover faster?? Good luck with that.
Huh? I live in denver and sales are way, way down. While it is true we are not falling fast, virtually nothing is moving at these levels and foreclosures are rising. Given those circumstances and tightening lending standards, not to mention a horrible recession brewing, of course prices in Denver will not appreciate this year. They need to drop hard. And not impacted by the bubble? What are you talking about? Prices here are sky high and rose dramatically over the last 8 years. We arent even close to historical norms.
I think it depends on what part of the Denver metro area one is talking about. Some more centric like lodo have seen appreciation, but if you live in the burbs your house didn’t appreciated all that much in the last 5 years. The number I recall reading was maybe 2-3% annual appreciation during that period. I recall that there was a bit of appreciation here in Loveland during the late 90s, but that by 2000 that stopped and prices have been sliding down slowly since.
I do not claim to be knowledgeable of the suburban market. My focus has been on city neighborhoods experiencing gentrification as that is my particular interest. Lodo, Country Club, Park Hill, Highlands, etc.
so I think that helped us “recover” faster from the housing bust.
oops RJ I think you meant the 90’s bust right?
What about all the foreclosures -no impact? Loan resets - no impact? Record inventory - no impact? etc….
RJ Baxter,
I’m going to respectfully… disagree with my esteemed fellow bears on this one. I’m *not by any means an expert in the Denver/CO mkts. but I HAVE cold-called there a lot. I’ve spoke w/ a lot of business people and the general refrain has been “what BOOM”? I’m not saying there won’t be further impacts in a broader recession but “I” happen to think you guys have had your turn in the barrel!
No offense to Motor City posters (I’ll DIE a Mitch Ryder fan) but people in Denver spend much of their time figuring out how they’ll be able to stay there (not how to GTFO).
Flame me… NOW!
The Denver bubble occured earlier in connection with the telecom boom, the collapse there has limited appreciation recently, but over the last 7 years prices in the areas I have been tracking have doubled. I moved here from Atlanta which was a much larger city, and to my surprise prices here are about 30% higher. I think you are talking to salesmen, most of us are highly educated ppl that understand the data and speak unbiasedly.
Like I say, I’m no expert where Denver is concerned and my comment was largely anecdotal anyway. A doubling in prices in 7 years *isn’t by any stretch in keeping w/ historic norms (but it’s a HELL of a lot more reasonable than a doubling every THIRD year) as was the case in many “hot” markets.
I guess we’d have to describe Denver’s economy during that period as inconsistent at best and if I were you I’d be GLAD you haven’t seen LV/PHX style in-flows of equity locusts! For the most part I spoke w/business owners and of course they “sell” too but many are MBA’s etc.
FWIW, I don’t know anyone out here whose house doubled in price during the last 7 years. For instance, my in laws live in Westminster, and their place is pretty much worth the same as it was 7 years ago. Maybe 10% more.
Westminister is not in Denver. There are tons of space in the suburbs to build stucco boxes, so they dont really appreciate. I have seen most houses in the 500k to 1 million price range in the intown areas of my interest. I dont use price per square foot, or median prices, but actual view the homes. Many of which have sold multiple times during the period. They just purchased in the wrong areas for appreciation.
Denver had a housing bubble in the late 90’s. With the economic collapse, housing prices should have fallen in 2001-2005. But the national housing bubble kept prices artificially inflated (rising slightly). THis is analogous to what happened the rust belt. Home prices should have fallen due to adverse economic conditions, but the bubble kept them artificially propped up.
Now that the bubble is collapsing, Denver will see the price drops they should have seen in 2002, 2003, 2004, …
I have an associate that recently purchased a duplex in Centennial, CO (which of course… I’m sure doesn’t “qualify”) but it actually cash-flows for him. I just thought that was remarkable because there aren’t a lot of places in THIS country that will? I mean that have roads and electricity.
I don’t mean to be a pain here Tim it’s just that I promised myself I wouldn’t be so bearish in ‘08 that I wouldn’t know an entry point if it hit me on the head.
That’s way outside Denver. There was a thread a few weeks back in which multiple posters discussed the difference between appreciation rates in intown areas and in the burbs in the Denver area. In such thread, I and others noted that surburban prices in Denver were in the toilet, but popular intown areas were still showing an upward trend. I dont disagree that the suburbs are having trouble. Personally I just cant get around the lack of trees, less than 5 foot setbacks and synthethic stucco. Also I get road rage out in the suburbs and prefer to walk to work.
Yeah, I can’t vouch for any “in town/trendy area”. Regardless of locale. I guess that’s the trade off we make when we don’t want the expense of a car/2nd car and commuting expenses/time. Remember, “mature” neighborhoods w/ nice trees that meet in the center of the street were all new at “some” time.
LOL re: “GTFO”…….that’s me!!!!
Thanks for not taking it in the wrong light (I’m originally from Cicero, IL). This may surprise some people but now that we’re finally… empty-nesters “I” would love to spend part of the late summer/early fall back in Chicago. (Most of friends still hang out at the same bars we did in HS!)
Unlike freakin’ OR at least Chicago usually gets a full 3 months of summer.
We are in Oak Park and I don’t think the near west suburbs have really changed in the past 30 years. Well, Oak Park is wet now and even has a bar on Lake Street.
“We didn’t go through the crazy appreciation that other areas did in the early 2000’s”
Nope, we lead the pack and did ours from 1996?-2001, and have frantically been trying to hold onto the gains (using 125% financing) ever since.
Former FB,
I…. can definitely respect that. Much the same here in OR. That’s why I get bent out of shape when ppl identify the bubble as STRICTLY a “Post 9/11 Event”.
Yup, it was during that time frame that my in laws place appreciated from 180K to about 240K. And that’s what its still worth now, judging by the asking prices in the neighborhood.
And compared to other places, it is “cheaper” here. If SoCal prices fell to our level, I’m sure that it would be considered a catastrophe (at least by the CAR)
And don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that its affordable here. Its not, but then again, no desirable place is these days.
Um, not to rain on your parade RJ Baxter, but you are posting on a blog which has a 100% record for being correct as far as predictions are concerned.
I should also add, because of the mortgage industry and realtor industry, the majority of very savvy posters on this blog have been slowly downgrading those two occupations (one could hardly call them professions) as the facts come out concerning the rampant fraud and deceit carried out by mortgage brokers and realtors, to the status of street hookers.
However, I have noticed that anyone in (what is left) of the mortgage industry and real estate industry, still seem to have the old (boring) one sound bite take on property. “Now is a good time to buy.”
Here’s some news. It AIN’T.
Once again, we come back to rent costs as opposed to property values. One can turn the argument inside out and upside down but the bottom line is, 100x rents in any given area are roughly the value of a property. Thus, where I live for instance, values have dropped from $725,000 for a SFH to a current $575,000 BUT the properties on the market are not selling. Not even showing interest. So much so, that most realtors are not even putting out their signs at the weekend. I assume they have better things to do than baby sit a forlorn looking house which nobody wants. Of course, plenty of FOR RENT signs springing up as FB attempt to forestall the inevitable for most of the….foreclosure.
However, the rent for the same (now $575,000 sfh) are hovering around $1,800 to $2,000 a month. Thus, 100x$2,000 + $200,000. Of course, FB’s could argue that rents will go up. Um, not quite true. In my area there are scores, if not hundreds, of jobs at $8 to $10 being offered and going unfilled because the RENTS are too expensive and people who make $8 to $10 an hour cannot afford to live here - let alone buy a house!
You can use the “Now is a great time to buy,” and “Mortgage rates have never been lower,” mantra as much as you like but regulars on this blog were not fooled in the past and they are not going to be fooled in the future.
100x the average rent is where this market will end up and UNLESS wages almost double or even treble in the next 5 years, this mess will not be cleaned up until the 100x the average rent number is reached. You can basically discount ALL price increases since about 2000. Why? Because all prices have been based on fraud. Realtors and mortgage brokers “upping” the values by thousands or even hundreds of thousands instead of a slow and steady valuation increase of, say 2% a year. Worse, ALL of those prices were based on speculation, fraudulent mortgage applications and fraudulent appraisals because the appraisers were “blackmailed” by the realtors and mortgage brokers. “Either go along with what I say it’s worth or you’ll find yourself fliiping burgers are McDonalds.”
Truth is, we are not even 20% into this downturn. Added to that, if the recession is a bad one (and a $800 gift from government to avoid a recession doesn’t cut it) you are REALLY going to see the results of all this folly.
“You can basically discount ALL price increases since about 2000. Why? Because all prices have been based on fraud.”
CO had most of its gains before 2000, based on actual salary gains from the tech bubble IMO, some of which have since been given back. So, CO didn’t really use fraud to pump up the bubble…they’ve only used it to avoid the pop :-).
Agreed. I would very much like to see some stats for CO on total household debt to income ratios from 2000 and then today. Anyone know where that could be found?
What I would like to see is how many low paid retail workers bought “cheap” houses in the outer suburbs and exurbs.
How many low-paid retail workers bought cheap houses in the exurbs?
Based on my street…a lot! Here’s some stats from a typical suburban street in Castle Rock.
Seven of 32 properties changed hands in 2007.
Three properties sold at a profit, ranging from +3.3% to +5.7% from their 2005 purchase, the highest from a sale last February.
Four properties sold at a loss, ranging from -9% to -17%.
The last two sales, both in October, were short sales to investors, one of whom flipped the property for a tidy $25k profit (still -$20k from 2005). The other house became a rental.
The largest loss was an REO.
There have been three completed foreclosures in 2007. None are pending, although a couple of owners are behind on their property taxes.
There are currently three rental houses on my street. All are occupied, with rents ranging from $1200 to $1600 per month.
One of my neighbors recently quit-claimed his house to his wealthy father.
Two owners have recently given up and pulled their houses off the market, hoping to capitalize on a revitalized spring market.
The other day, one of my neighbors revealed that she is job-hunting for a more lucrative position because they are over budget by $200 each month. Hopefully, they are pulling it out of savings rather than putting it on credit, but I have my doubts.
I agree completely. I knew the calvary and my fellow Denver urbanites would arrive to set the record straight. I’m not sure if your in Denver Mike, but your facts are accurate.
Tim,
Don’t take this the wrong way but whenever I discuss “The Housing Bubble” with folks from coast-to-coast seldom are the first words out of their mouths “Denver Colorado”.
The “Calvary” is spread mighty thin and desperately needed elsewhere.
It would be you were speaking in Denver to ppl living in Denver. All bitchin’ is local. It didnt go up the most, nor has it fallen enough, to make most headlines. With the exception of our foreclosure rate. That gets mentioned a lot.
Look at the Case Shiller composite chart,
http://www.papereconomy.com/CSI.aspx
Housing prices, nationally, begin to rise beginning in 1996 to 1997. That’s when the bubble really began to take place. They almost leveled off in 2000-2001 as a result of the dot com bust, and then climbed with a vengence.
Thgis sure agree with those of you who saw the bubble beginning about 1996-7.
Thanks for the link de!
I’ve maintained this for some time and it really hasn’t been until Schiller was willing to “wallow in it” that we’ve had reliable data. Also (and not to stir things up on a Friday) but also notice how that coincides w/ the Tax Relief Act of 1997 when we decided no one should have to pay cap. gains when they sell their house. Regardless of age! (Two years is barely enough time to get fully un-packed and find “those” Christmas decorations).
“The subprime-mortgage crisis already is a thing of the past and should not affect the housing market going forward, Yun said. ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost. Subprime is a past event that’s unrelated to homebuying.’”
not just subprime yun-its little money down, with stated information or ALT-A…these two areas alone makes YUN a household name on this board. without that i be some of us would think Yun was some asian currency.
” ‘The subprime mess is a Wall Street mess,’ Yun said. ‘They made a huge gamble, and they lost.’ ”
Yeah… s***w you guys. Now ease up those lending standards for us so we can get all the GFs funded enough to pay our hefty commissions. (j/k)
It. off?
How did you do that? Is there supposed to be an “i” on either side of the word you want to put in itallic, or just one in front of the word?
One “i” in front of the word and a forward slash and an “i” behind the word.
‘It’s nonsensical to concentrate on the national figure,’ Yun said. ‘Local information is far more relevant.’
Take it straight from an NAR economist to learn what is nonsensical
Fake quote that Yun could have said,
“Sure there’s a recession coming, but what does that have to do with real estate?”
No, no, Yun said that a recession would **improve** the real estate market in Denver.
Just imagine what a depression would do!
More bad real estate news from Tucson:
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/biz-topheadlines/221051
Conspicuously absent from the local news coverage is any mention of how this region can build an economy that’s based on something other than real estate and construction.
Whoops! Sorry, Ben (and everyone else).
I just linked to a story that was already mentioned up in the original post.
Southern AZs top employers, especially money wise, are not real estate or construction - even in aggregate.
For the most part, our top employers are federal, state, and local government agencies. And the University of Arizona, which is a state school.
Narcs?
But Slim, why pee on AZ’s parade? You know who the largest employer in… the State of Oregon is?
…..The State of Oregon. (I mean it’s the case for a lot of western states) Don’t get me wrong, no one curses our “Economy of Musical Houses” more than me but you’re not alone. When do the White Sox start up? February?
And the White sox will be leaving at some point for their new stadium in Glendale. Not sure what that will mean for tucson baseball, but I thought there was some clause for the Rockies saying that there needed to be 3 teams in Tucson or they could move as well…
Anyway, the Sox are going to be stinky-pooey this year.
Steve W,
We’ll have none of that attitude here young man! (JK)
Every year I promise myself I’ll head down (mom lives in Sierra Vista) but it’s the ramp-up to the tax season and even though it’s slow… God help you if you’re not at client’s beck and call! I hope they stay in Tucson, Oh and Crede hits 60 HR’s…
Oh I hope you’re right, but detroit looks really darned good, the Indians will still be decent, and we’re getting old…well, it’s too early to worry anyway.
But they are definitely moving out of Tucson, anywhere from 2009 at the earliest to 2013 at the lastest depending if they can get a team to take their place or not.
What a J.O. Yun knows full well Wall Street isn’t in the loan ORIGINATION business. NAR and our ever-so-generous tax code is what created the demand that WS was only too happy to facilitate but to say they created the problem is beyond ridiculous.
Got this from a real estate site here in Chicago. I belong to a couple of listing services, and it’s been fun watching all of the “PCHG” postings. Here’s what the realtor wrote in his “January Update”:
“Good Morning,
There is a tremendous opportunity today in the real estate market. Interest rates are at 5.5%, and with the amount of homes on the market, I am not afraid of insulting sellers with low-ball offers. This is a market where you can make a GREAT BUY!”
That just made me laugh because the “lowball” offer would most likely be the true worth of the property in question.
Nothing like asking an agressive 3% off that list! Brave, brave RE agent.
LOL! My husband and I looked at some ridiculously overpriced condos in Evanston, IL. The 2/1 model we were roaming thru listed at $ 265K (stop laughing, edgewater john!). The realtor said “Tell us what makes it work for you.”
I had to bite my tongue. I almost blurted out “How about $100K and we’ll pay it in cash?”
I learned my lesson on that one… don’t tell ‘em too early in the game that you’ll pay cash.
I agree with Kim, good thing you didn’t show your cards. They’ll be shoving you towards $5M houses with your 5% down payment.
Grey,
Again (and I can’t believe this on a Friday) but Evanston is generally considered one of the nicest communities in the entire Chicagoland area, no? I mean it’s a place where “crime” is defined by the cheerleading captain getting her house TP’d right? (I’ll get those little b@stards) “Honey get me the phone! Call 911!”
But you’re right. $265k is insane (no matter how nice the condo or the neighborhood) Remember when the idea behind a condo/TH was that they were “economical”?
Nah, Evanston is a little rougher than that - especially the south and west sides of town which border the city. Up by NU the areas bordering Wilmette are very nice.
In 1997 I looked at a few condos in Evanston. $100k would get someone a swell place, but you had to be careful as some of the buildings were 60s-70s crap. I passed on a place for $113k (1 bdrm) across the street from the Linden ‘el stop (north terminus of the Purple line) - that place would probably have fetched 3x that recently.
I’m not sure how any of these people can even gauge the market in bubble cities like Vegas and So Cal. It is impossible to see where the market is because there are NO sales anywhere. I’ve been watching entire zip codes in LA county for months and cannot get a comp to try and gauge where the market is. Even worse here in Vegas.
Both areas have neighborhoods with people competing vs. REO’s. The people just don’t get it. Banks are now asking 100k less than the people and neither are selling.
I think we are just months if not weeks from the edge of the cliff and huge price declines.
CapoCorso,
I hope you’re right (I mean about Vegas). I’ve had similar observations and since I intend to continue renting my office here in OR, Vegas and maybe… Palm Springs are about the only markets I’m tracking at all. The next leg down will leave LV realtors utterly aghast.
There is no ‘cliff’ in this game. There may be a sink hole for a particular houses or neighborhood, but we are not going to see a 20% decline in a month or a quarter.
So why did the stockmarket just nosedive and crash like that 777 at Heathrow yesterday?
PPT must have been getting a head start on the three-day weekend.
Clearly a subprime containment failure! Poor Scotty - he gave it his best, but it’s to the escapepods now! Move along!
I said it yesterday, and I will say it again today.
Subprime is Contained!
Now go get your shinebox…..
I must admit, it was funny watching the dow nosedive as W was talking, reminded me of when Dick Harper went on the air for Globodyne, or whatever it was……..
Anticipating Bush.
“Anticipating Bush”
Sounds like fun, but I’m married
So why did the stockmarket just nosedive and crash like that 777 at Heathrow yesterday?
Oh come on, it was a soft landing… The stock market, on the other hand…
Did they figure out what happened yet (to the 777)?
Wasn’t Hoss calling for 11,000 by the end of the year? Looking closer all the time, like all bubbles, hard to predict the exact popping time, but all of a sudden 11,000 is a lot closer than 13,500. Good call Hoss.
Yun: The skill of the liar. A new book by evildoc
OK. Focus on national is bad becaue “all real estate is local”. Yah, an oldie but a goodie.
In debate, we called this the “truthful deception”
Assuming Yun is correct that “all real estate” - whatever that really means- “is local”, we are faced with similar scenario to.
“real estate will rebound because after all on a sunny day the sky is blue”.
It is true that on a sunny day the sky is blue.
However, that has nothing to do with real estate markets.
All real estate is local???
Well, maybe. But since all credit now is national, the trite “all real estate is local” means little ever were it true.
And… it’s not clear that the statement means anything anyway.
Charming.
All real estate is local???
And so are low wages and lack of affordability.
its babble…he doesn’t even know what it means but if you take the time to try to figure it out…you make him look smart
Missed Bush’s speech? You can hear it at KNX News Radio:
http://www.knx1070.com/
click on “jump starting the economy”.
Bush’s “stimulus” plan wouldn’t cover the boost of the average ARM reset.
Besides, I give over 10x Bush’s “stimulus” check to charity every year, and it hasn’t “stimulated” the economy much that I can tell. My money goes to people who actually need it, though. Not some knucklehead who HELOCed his house to buy a hummer.
Watching him speak makes me violently ill. No thanks.
You KNOW who he is really going to be jumping on.
Why do I feel a sudden urge to quote that awful Mortal Kombat movie - Shang Tsung: “IT HAS BEGUN!!!”
But really, it only HAS begun. Still too many folks thinking, “Well, it is only subprime.” or “It can’t happen here - it’ll just be a short downtick for a year, and then back to 15% in the bag per year!”
People SHOULD be thinking more about return OF their money at this point than return ON their money.
Pathetic thing: I was checking Morningstar looking at rate of returns over the past 10 years. Vanguard’s intermediate term US treasury fund returned about 6.3% or so, while the Vanguard 500 fund only return middle 5% or so. Nice. Remind why I should buy stocks “for the long term” again at this point? Again, return of my money vs. return on it.
Thanks for saying that. I need to do some rebalancing over at Vanguard.
“Irrational stupidity”. The NAR only extends the pain by not facing facts.
“‘It’s really affected the [demand for the] $350,000 to $800,000 price range,’ said Jordan Bangerter, president of the Salt Lake Home Builders Association. ‘There just aren’t that many people that can afford that type of house payment now.’”
And there weren’t that many before either.
This entire “recession fear” BS put out by the propaganda ministry…err…main stream media reminds me of the housing propaganda. First they deny the economy is in trouble until the bitter end. Then, when it is impossible to refute the problems, they admit there WAS a recession, but that it started months ago and now it’s OVER.
This is almost exactly what they did with the housing debacle.
So my question is…when do the a-holes start calling the recession over?
Tomorrow…..”Yes, the economy went into recession on Tuesday. By Thursday we had threatened it with a stimulus package, and it ran away. The recession is now over. America is strong again.”
In the future, we could do a preemptive stimulus package. That’d scare the next recession back into hiding.
Twisted…but I like it!
We have a dip, and his name is Yun.
Let me get this straight. All those tax give-aways for the rich 5-6 years ago that were designed to “trickle down” to the middle class failed, right? What a crazy notion. Give the rich a massive pay raise and hope they spread some around to the serfs. And if it doesn’t work? Sorry, time to take it out of the serfs via reduced spending for the social programs.
McCain tells SC he is embarrassed that his party let spending get out of control. I wonder. Is he talking about the trillion dollars we blew in Iraq? I doubt it. He’s talking about Medicare and Social Security. And education.
Starve the Beast is what comes next. First you screw things up. Then you use the fact you screwed things up as an excuse to go after the social programs.
Like the rich are going to spend every extra dollar they to keep. Like they were J6P?
It was always bullshit.
I guess that there are only so many ivory backscratchers or trophy wives that one can buy…
“‘Our industry is trying to adjust to meet demand for less expensive housing,’ he said. That’s a difficult challenge, he said, given that the public - and cities - prefer bigger and bigger homes.”
OK whatever, big homes blah blah blah. What about those of us who just want a small home…for a small home price? A starter home priced …. LIKE A STARTER HOME. Would it be OK if you didn’t build it to fall apart in 5 years? All that’s offered right now are small homes with big-home price tags. One day, affordability will meet desirability. One day, sellers will understand that God didn’t put me on this earth for the sole purpose of making them rich/rescuing them/buying their houses AND their HELOC’s. Some day…
Translation:
Our industry is struggling to wean itself from the huge profits we made building expensive houses. We are used to making at least 100K profit, not 10K profit, on each house.
“Foreclosures are the big wild card for the housing market. A record 10,000 metro Phoenix houses were foreclosed on in 2007.”
Wild card suggests a low probability, high impact event. Yes, foreclosures have high impact, but with a record number of Arizona foreclosures, there is also a high probability.
Sorry if this was posted b4, but I don’t remember seeing it on here. I meant to post this last year when it was happening. This is what happens when builders and city councils are not held accountable. Enjoy and discuss….
http://tiny.cc/awA5J
“But everyone is feeling that the construction on the Strip will pull us out of it once some of the hotel rooms come online.”
Speaking of construction on the strip, wasn’t there a mega resort that recently went back to the bank next to the Fashion Show Mall on the strip?
Reading the paper this morning and listening to the radio last night regarding Yun’s statements in Denver made me laugh. They had this nutbag realtor on 850 KOA last night talking about how inspirational he was and how great the Denver market looks. I could only assume that she meant it looks so great because of all the colorful “for sale” signs up and down every street. It almost looks like a carnival in my neighborhood.
I live in the Highlands (metro Denver) and will confirm that the price appreciation was in the late 90s with the peak in 2001. There is a new peak forming right now. It is the peak in for sale signs in people’s yards. I have never seen so many. Yes, the corner displays in California are impressive with 20 signs stacked together. But, seeing 3-4 houses for sale on each block as you drive down the street in Denver takes the cake. Capitulation in 3…2…1.
Thankfully, we bought pre-bubble in the 90s. I will not be surprised or mortally wounded when 50% comes of the price of homes in the area.
Speaking of mortally wounded…MBI, the equity markets in general, and the USD. This has been one crazy week.
I think that potential sellers here in Loveland (at least in my neighborhood) realized that now is not a good time to sell. I think that I saw far fewer houses for sale here than in years past. Also, judging by the lack of newer cars in the hood, I think that we are collectively going into hunker down mode here.
I ‘m still trying to keep an eye on somthing around Mariana Butte or Old Course. Still same as usual?????