The Trials And Tribulations Of Joe Six Pack
Readers suggested a topic on the housing downturn and people you know. “This weekend I would really love to see a thread that gives anecdotal details of how J6P is really holding up. Being isolated on this island and not living in the real world makes it very hard for me to sometimes understand what is going on in the real world. I live 3 blocks from Wall Street, for god’s sake. How much further removed can you get from reality?”
“I see some signs of reality kicking in. One co-worker has a house destroying his finances. Another co-worker has a house languishing for sale in Westchester. Another co-worker bought last year in Jersey for a ridiculous amount and just can’t believe that prices will go down.”
“If we get a weekend thread on ‘The Trials and Tribulations of Joe Six Pack and Sally Silicon’ I might be able to find more to share. I hope you can too. Reality is in such short supply here.”
One posted, “Neighbor and co worker who is renter - 7 yrs, great tenant, just got a notice from idiot landlord who says he is raising rent to 1600 and this summer to 1750. Meanwhile all the real estate agents are telling clients to NOT raise rents, too much on the market to be had, and much much newer. What is this idiot landlord thinking? Palm Springs, CA.”
And another, “I was just at a playgroup with my two year old. We all chip in a dollar and rent space from a local church for a few hours once a week.”
“I noticed two things that were different than usual. One, there was a father there with his kids, usually it’s all women. He looked/talked/dressed like a white collar worker, the sort of guy who’d be at work on a Friday morning. I remember seeing more Dads at my older son’s playgroup back in 2001-2002 too. Also, the box where we put the money had a lot of quarters in it, meaning several people paid with change.”
“My brother works in a supermarket and he said he’s noticed more people using coins to pay for their purchases too.”
“I noticed a few dads at the YMCA playroom too, although I haven’t been there in recent weeks. Finally, in the past two weeks, I’ve met two more people in my town who are renting sfh. Renting: All the cool kids are doing it.”
One added, “Interesting…As a matter of fact, I did notice more dads at our most recent playgroup. Will keep an eye on it to see if it’s a trend.”
One from Georgia. “My neighborhood in north Atlanta is a mix of boomer & older affluent and apartment dweller section 8ers. The easiest way to tell what is going on in the hood is at the local grocery stores.”
“Today the Kroger was almost empty. There were a few section 8ers in the store & most were staring at the food like kids looking at puppies in a pet shop window, with very liitle in their hand held baskets. It seemed that most of them were also having to make weighty decisions about what they could in fact buy.”
“In the check out line I was behind an elderly affluent lady who berated the store clerk when her total came to over $100. The old lady said it was ‘too much money for not much food.’”
“The street we live on is one of the few middle class townhouse developments in the area. This week one of our neighbors came home & saw a roaring fire burning in the fireplace of the vacant unit next to him (don’t know if it a foreclosure). The neighbor called the fire department. When the fire department arrived, a squatter was discovered living there.”
One from California. “San Diego County: 1. A realtor we’ve used on a few transactions quit RE and started working for an atty. She’s been in the business for over 10 years.”
“2. Another realtor we’ve used (Central Valley, CA) told me that things basically stopped dead just after summer, and they are having a very rough go of it.”
“3. We know at least two people who’ve been laid-off in the mortgage business. A couple more who are looking for other work in a non-related field before pulling the plug.”
“4. Another couple of people we know in the construction industry are picking up other jobs, not in construction field.”
“5. Almost everybody we know who’s bought a house, or cash-out HELOC’ed, is living paycheck-to-paycheck. They openly talk about how stressed they are about finances.”
“6. We know one family that lost two homes to foreclosure. Both parents were in the RE business. (Quite frankly, they deserved it, and don’t even seem bothered by it.)”
“7. The sportfishing industry in So Cal has been slower over the past year — and seems to have slowed down even more over the past few months. Also, there’s been a rather significant uptick in tackle/gear/boats for sale.”
“8. When people find out we’ve sold property (three transactions, a fourth in escrow pending some legal work) over the past six months, they ask in amazement how we did it so fast (all in escrow within 30 days). They still seem to miss the connection between lowering the price & selling.(????) They ask if we had to ‘give it away.’ (not kidding, their words) A couple of these people have asked because they’ve been trying to sell their homes (on and off the market, over and over and over, again) and ‘just can’t seem to find the right buyer.’ [rolls eyes]”
“9. Best of all…whenever someone discovers we’re renting, they say, ‘Wow! you are soooo lucky/smart!’ Totally different responses than what we got a few years ago, by far.”
The sportfishing industry in So Cal has been slower over the past year
yo, the section8er bridge fishin be pickin up
Hmmmm. If one wanted to trade his spare change for fresh fish then a SoCal bridge may be the place to go.
You might think twice once you saw the harbor water……..
The silver lining to no rain in the city of angles last year, was the ocean being cleaned up considerably, as the storm drains full of nastiness, couldn’t transport their booty onwards to the sea.
It’s City of Angels.
I think aladinsane had is right the first time………
city of angles.
City of “Angles” works well too!
I was able to slip under the wire and escape, after 42 years of observing the goings on…
The view from just outside the wire, looking back in, is quite angular.
“After the Mexican-American War, the territories in California were ceded to the United States. People flooded into the Los Angeles area during the California Gold Rush, and the tiny pueblo quickly grew into a wild frontier town. Los Angeles was basically lawless at the time, to such an extent that the City of Angels was given the nickname “Los Diablos.”"
Hellish place, really.
http://www.superpages.com/cities/Los+Angeles-CA.html
“and the tiny pueblo quickly grew into a wild frontier town. Los Angeles was basically lawless at the time, to such an extent that the City of Angels was given the nickname “Los Diablos.””
The village of LA during the 1850’s thru the 70’s was indeed a lawless wild frontier town. There were a lot of hangings during the period of Mexicans and chinese. The city sheriff was frequently murdered by town ruffians or roving mexican bandits.
This is all chronicled in the excellent book ‘Southern California :an island on the land’ by Carey McWilliams, really a good fun read about the early history of SCal and LA, though the author tilts to the progressive left.
The old description of LA sounds like Tiajuana today.
I’d think twice before eating a fish caught in any ocean. But you’re right So Cal waters - it’s not even a matter of thinking twice about it.
That is why there is alot of cancers among life guards especially in the Santa Monica oceancesspools.
Gosh, if I can’t see through it and it is cold, then why swim in it? yikes.LOL
“The sportfishing industry in So Cal has been slower over the past year yo, the section8er bridge fishin be pickin up ”
They do that off the piers in LB harbor across from the Queen Mary. Right where the nasty sewage-laden LA river merges with that port cargo toxic sinkhole call ed the LB Harbor. Image the toxicity of the fish dredged up out of that slime.
Back eons ago in my youngin days we used to actually go fishing in the LB harbor, catching rock bass off the jetties and white croaker(tom cod) in the deeper waters. Now there are posted signs all over warning fishermen not to eat the tomcod caught in the harbor.
I was at the cable tv office twice last week. Both times there was a guy next to me who had brought in a partial payment in cash and was begging them not to disconnect (I don’t know if it was for cable tv or internet). THis is San Diego and in both cases the guys looked well-dressed and middle-aged, typical J6Ps. Since I don’t spend much time there, I don’t know if this is unusual or what, but it really hit home that outward appearances won’t tell you if people are in serious financial distress or not.
I know of a guy running a cash advance place that says the number one reason that people come to him is because their cable TV has been shut off.
A guy I know in the bay area that has had a pawn shop for about 20 years, used to describe a ritual of the J6P of 15 years ago…
They’d hock their vcr on Monday and get it out of hock on Friday so they could watch movies on the weekend, and repeat this process about every other week.
I just hawked my VCR for 99 cents.
other than that guy is making money hand over fist, I would suggest that cable be shut off and read a book or play games.. Gosh, what DID we Do before tv…Remember when it shut off at a certain time with that bullseye and loud noise nonstop till the morning.
“I would suggest that cable be shut off and read a book or play games.”
I went half way and just get basic for $21.00 a month now. Cut out the MSM cable news sites and espn and fox sports(which i really miss). basically it is just the VHF channels 2-13 plus uhf 14-30 and five more at the 80’s band.
I will eventually just put up a big attenna with rotator and cut out cable altogether.
you know, that reminds me of this video about bus driver courtesy and safety that was produced by San Francisco MUNI in the 1990’s. In one sequence, the driver profiles the passengers, trying to figure out who is a potential trouble spot. Well, the homies sit in the back and chill, and the crazy lady that the bus driver asked to shut up basically only annoys everyone, but the East Indian guy in a business suit holding a copy paper box is the one who flips out on everyone and causes a disturbance. The narrator explains that we can’t always predict who is going to cause trouble on the bus … “This man has just been laid off. He was asked to clear his desk and escorted out of the building … He put the contents of his desk in the box …”
Best of all…whenever someone discovers we’re renting, they say, ‘Wow! you are soooo lucky/smart!’ Totally different responses than what we got a few years ago, by far.”
You will see many more complements like that, using “smart” instead of “lucky” as this real estate deflation sharpens.
Renting is the new “new black.”
I feel so Chic now, stylish, and ‘whats IN’..
lol
I heard my first compliment to this effect in December. Also, even though my four years of renting still leaves me behind having had I purchased, that meant little to this person. To him - I am in a good place right now and don’t have to worry about the future.
Quotes I hear about renting vs owning by those who own.
“I won’t rent and do that to my kids.”
“I don’t want to throw my money away on rent.”
What other quotes have you all heard?
“I won’t rent and do that to my kids.”
Geez ! I know I’ve ranted on this before numerous times (so I’ll spare y’all) but that whole mind set just cheeses me off every freaking time.
I rented for 32 of the 35 years I raised my two girls (16 yrs apart). All they know is ours was the place all the other kids came to hang out. It doesn’t matter who owns it - it matters how you make it home.
Right now it is mostly, “Don’t you think you are going to want to buy this year?”
Maryland is a lagging market. Nope, not going to want to buy this year.
Used to be folks pestered you about not having kids.
I guess the bigger question is whose business is it whether you rent or own? Why do people feel they need to discuss their personal financial decisions with anyone unless they choose to. Used to be considered very bad manners to question others’ finances.
Bingo!
When we sold our house and rented we were idiots. Now we’re Geniuses. When we buy our next house we’ll be idiots again!
fence stradler
I resemble that!
A couple of my sisters co-workers who have filed their tax returns are having meltdowns. It seems they received notice from the IRS that their tax refunds will be delayed until sometime in March. The refunds, it seems was already earmarked to ease the daily struggles.
Your sister’s co-workers sound like exactly the sort of folks who will be most helped by the stimulus package…
For how long?
stimulus package ??
Yeah….And we are doing it with 5% unemployment…What the hell are they going to do @ 7% ??
“Stimulus package ?? Yeah….And we are doing it with 5% unemployment…What the hell are they going to do @ 7% ??”
The desperation of this package (they couldn’t even wait for The State of The Union speech to announce it?) says everything we need to know about how J6P is holding up. It’s every bit as bad as we think it is on this board, and then some.
The debt bomb is about to go off.
DC insight: You don’t announce a stimulus package in the State of the Union. State of the Union is supposed to be all about standing ovations and positive messages. Stimulus means the economy might be in trouble. You can’t say that for the first time during the SotU. Just not done.
I had heard that the Tax relief portion would not be allowable on your 07 returns and that the rebates wouldn’t come until June. I waiting for some genius to make the tax portion only allowable for mortgage holders.
I also saw the little debate on Leher news hour last night. True to form, we had someone trotting out the idea that all the cuts should go to business and little to J6P. At this point, business will be grateful for the break but little if any of the stimulus will go to the workers, like always. So shareholder bailout then?
Can’t go on the ‘07 returns. Lots of states calculate their income taxes off the federal numbers. Would screw up the states that do that.
Also, it takes the IRS about 6-8 weeks to implement a form/electronic filing change even if they know exactly what they are supposed to do. This is just an executive proposal, so there is nothing to implement yet. You can’t delay the filing season indefinitely. Not only is it just not done, it might be illegal.
June would be a very agressive date with the president and Congress from different parties and with different priorities (Pres - accelerated depreciation for business purchases, Congressional democrats - extended unemployment and more money for food stamps). Don’t count this check until all the i’s have been dotted and the t’s crossed.
The people I work with think it’s done deal and are planning how to spend their money.
These people obviously have no clue what it takes to get something like this done. This makes asking for a 3nd year no cost extention of USDA funds seem like a tea party with frilly dresses and white (not blue) unicorns.
my co workers are putting towards their Strike fund.
“True to form, we had someone trotting out the idea that all the cuts should go to business and little to J6P.”
Yeah, this would be the same businesses that have been exporting our jobs overseas and/or hiring illegals to undercut pay and save on bennies to the tune of record profits?
So some in the gov actually think they can still sell us on the “trickle down” theory. Haaaaaaaa! ROTFL
Stan O’Neill, ex-CEO of Merrill Lynch and one of the financial ‘geniuses’ behind the subprime-loan investments at that firm, has been offered a Board of Directorship at Alcoa. Glad to see he’s scrapping by, along with the rest of the J6P’s.
RE: Your sister’s co-workers sound like exactly the sort of folks who will be most helped by the stimulus package…
Last night the evening news featured a woman who was $3800.00 in arrears on her utility bills alone.
$800.00 will buy your average person another week of living expenses-BFD.
Nothin’ gonna change this. America’s wealth and standard of living has been sacrificed on the alter of corporate globalism.
Joe Gobbells would be proud of the propoganda and disinformation involved in the political sell-out.
$800.00 for living expenses for a week?
Good lord, if we were paying out that much (including debt servicing), we’d be in sorry shape indeed. Learn to camp, people… you may need to know how.
$800 would buy a roomy 5 person tent, 2 blow up mattresses (w/ pump), folding tables, chairs, lantern, stove, headlamps, white gas, sleeping bags, pillows, tarps and a month’s worth of food. (2 months if you do it right)
At Target last night a woman and her kid bought two pop-up tents that were on clearance - bought two tents - in January…in Chicago…O.A.T. 5 degrees.
RE: $800.00 for living expenses for a week?
Hmmm…
Health insurance-$150.00
Food $ 60.00
Electricity $25.00
Fuel Oil $ 50.00
Gasoline-20 gal.- $ 60.00
Insurances (other)$ 50.00
Property taxes - $ 50.00
CC payments $100.00
Auto Loan - $100.00
Mortgage/Rent - $250.00
Entertainment - $ 50.00
Total - $945.00 per week
For the frugal knock out the $100 credit card debt payment and $50.00 for entertainment.
So we’re @ $795.00. Call it $800.00 (and I’m sure I’ve overlooked a few items)
$800.00 will buy your average person another week of living expenses-BFD
Does more than that - at least the way I run the household.
Health insurance (premiums, copays and non-covered expense) = $86
Food and household (think laundry soap etc) = $43 (I’m a gourmet vegetarian cook and really do cook from scratch for 2 people)
Electricity $15 (compact flourescents, super-efficent clothes processor and compact dishwasher)
Fuel Oil (propane actually) = $22 (gotta love that Bosch tankless water heater)
Gasoline- 5 gal.- $ 16.00 (cars get 32/36 and 90% of things I need are within 7 miles but the trips to the heated swimming pool are 25 miles each way)
Insurances (other)$ 25.00
Property taxes - $ 0.00 (in the rent)
CC payments $0.00
Auto Loan - $0.00
Mortgage/Rent - $161.00
Entertainment (Internet)- $ 14.00 (loathe TV broadcasting and refuse to pay for such garbage)
Total - $382.00 per week then add
Water - $17 (huge perenneial gardens)
Phone - $ 7 (VOIP)
Final total = $406
Around here, $800 covers pretty close to 2 weeks.
Ann, I had to look at that too. We’re close to that but a bit more on food and shelter but literally have zero gas costs (work in 2 miles away). We still came in just under $510 even in our pricey area of northern Ca.
So I ran the “what if” numbers. Assuming we never used the car (bike to work & stores), got a slightly smaller apt, and changed to just internet access, ditched the landline and got a cell phone card, we could easily hit $325. Now if we had to do that long term, it would go up because as some point you would need new shoes, a haircut etc. but still - wow! I love renting >; )
I didn’t add in the dog food for 2 of my dogs (1 is my Service Dog so he goes in Medical) or the cats’ food or the vet bills.
I have to admit that I rarely buy shoes any more. I have a huge collection from when I was working - hubby keeps saying ‘you have HOW MANY pairs of Ferragamos that you don’t really wear anymore?!. Life these days is sandals in the summer to run errands and get to the beach, prefer working barefoot in my gardens, and winter is boots when I go out the door into the snow. Clothes are pretty much the same. Tough to kill Brooks Brothers things and they are timeless.
And of course my addiction to gardening runs up the budget but one has to do something and hubby refused to buy me a 32 ft boat. (He wants a life jacket if the water is over 5 1/2 feet.)
Still in all, we spend very little money. If a new book comes out that I want to read, I just email the name and publisher to the librarian and he orders it. (Wealthy library - all those lovely non-homestead property taxes from the 2nd home people.)
“$800 would buy a roomy 5 person tent, 2 blow up mattresses (w/ pump), folding tables, chairs, lantern, stove, headlamps, white gas, sleeping bags, pillows, tarps and a month’s worth of food. (2 months if you do it right) ”
In march 1995 I spend one glorious month touring the southwest and my total budgeted spending came to just under a $1000.00. Slept in my pickup camper shell or in a backpack tent for free on BLM land, cooked on a whisperlite stove , and hiked and hiked all over the Utah, Arizona NP butts, mesas, and canyons. Did stay in cheap flophouse Motels twice(Had to shower once in a while)and ocasionally splurged on a restaurant meal.
That’s my kind of camping. Hint — take your showers in the middle of the afternoon when the air is nice and hot using one of those solar water bags with a shower head and a 5-gal bucket of water. Hang the shower water on top of your camper shell. There’s usually no one around at that time of day anyway. There are no bugs to speak of. The water on the ground will disappear within minutes, and you may dry off before you can find your bath towel.
Looks like I’m in the HD74man camp, unfortunately. If it were up to me, we could live more frugally, but it’s a challenge getting the rest of the family on board. Already got busted for refilling the water bottles with filtered tap water… (I’d rather we not buy bottled water, but I have to chose my battles. We don’t drink sodas so there’s the rationalization).
I just refilled my water bottle. I wash it each day and use them for about a week. I put a halt to cases of plastic water bottles here. The 5 cents/bottle CA charge was got them on board.
$800 is going to buy me a nice semi-auto Mini-14.
Kind of glad I owe this year. I’ll send it Apr 14th.
Why so early? When I owe I go down to the post office at 11pm on Apr 15. You’d be surprised at the number of people who do that.
I always do my taxes a couple of months early, just wait until then to mail when I owe. But I have seen people DOING their taxes inside sitting in a corner working on them at this late date.
Going to the P.O. with Mom on the night of the 15th was a childhood ritual. (strange childhood, but at least I can do my own taxes)
Years ago, I procrastinated on a scholarship application deadline, and had to send it on the postmark deadline. Inexplicably, the deadline for the applications/essays was April 15th. I went to a centrally located, large post office and it was a real circus. Local TV reporters pointing cameras at people filling out 1040s, a guy dressed as a giant Excedrin bottle handing out samples on the front steps, tax protestors, and of course, long lines. Surreal.
I would like to see an article written on why it is taking homes so much time to fall in price. Banks seem to be holding onto property instead of liquidating. I’ve always been taught that banks are not in the real estate business, but it seems to have changed. Foreclosures seem to be taking longer to go on the market as well. I mean where is the big reduction.
The stock market is finally being impacted so I think its only a matter of time but I cant believe we’ve only seen some mild bargains. Any idea on why its taken so long?
If the banks sell they realize a big loss. Instead, they get a phony appraisal and set up a small loss reserve. This of course hurts income but bankers are more interested in paper, accounting income than real economic income.
Also, most of the REOs are owned by investment trusts (securitized loans). The loan servicers, who service the REO, don’t wan’t to dispose of them because if they do they lose the servicing income. Once the investors face a significant loss of cash flow then the trustee will force the servicers to sell the REO.
It’s just a matter of time.
How long do you think it will be before the trusts get serious in selling their current crop of REO’s?
the banks (and other corporations) hide the bad news for as long as possible or as long as it takes for them to get their bonuses.
You want to know about a bank that is in the real estate business, try this one, http://www.bankofbozeman.com. These guys are most definitely in the real estate business. It was started by the Cowdreys because of other banks had turned down construction loans for them in the past. So what better way to finance building project than to own your own bank?
Remember the Texas savings and loan crisis, the I-30 condo scandal, Empire savings and loan? We got the same thing going on in Bozeman Montana, 27 years latter.
eventually they will enter into “RENTING” Business
The real reason they are holding out is that it totally screws their ability to maintain their books.
Remember……….banks lend out based on almost minimum reserve requirements: 10:1.
If they loose $100,000 on bank buy-backs, then their reserve requirement just went up. They loose ONE MILLION dollars in loan ability to keep reserve requirements. Works great on the way up.
That is why banks are supposed to be very cautious in lender money, requiring doc’s, appraisals, income verification, loan history……so they don’t get stuck.
They kinda forgot all those “old-fashioned” lending rules a few years back.
Now look at the brokerages………..BLEEDING BILLIONS of dollars in bad PAPER.
They tried to hide it for a while. Banks are trying to hide it, too.
Eventually the truth comes out.
Jayzus! Set the dogs loose, and you might lose one!
RE: Any idea on why its taken so long?
Nobody knows who’s holdin’ the notes.
Remember-it’s not the local community banks who are on the hook like in ‘90/’91.
Hell-I used to see VA/FHA foreclosures sitting empty for over 2 years.
Who knows what the hell is involved in property liquidations when the servicing entity is dealing with Wong Chung Investment Partners LLP located in Hop Su China.
I had a customer place a 300K offer on a property the bank was owed $440K. Rejected. They want more — even though the 300 was a gift.
As they say in the car business: send ‘em a salt and pepper shaker.
There is a bank owned property on my street for sale. The price has been reduced from original $1.1mm to $600k. No kidding. Funning thing is when it was listed at $1.1, the listing read “$100k in equity; house appraised at $1.2mm”
I guess nobody got the memo.
That is a pretty steep drop and this is a huge McMasnsion ITP here in Atlanta. I would add, I’ve seen the photos online, and this house looks like it was thrown together inside.
This was a definite case of mortgage fraud too, according to the neighbors. The house sold for $1.1 originally and within six months of closing it was in foreclosure. I don’t think a single payment was made. Sad!
My co-worker in OC selling nice 1M SFH in Costa Mesa - prime location taking his home off market because two others on his street selling 200K below where he bought in 2005. It is no longer just outter fringes,condos or less desirable areas seeing steep declines.
What is a typical characteristics of joe 6 pack?
And Sally Silicon?
I am sorry, English is my third language.
They live paycheck-to-paycheck. Life is something that “happens” to them. They are the gullible “sheeple” as often described on this board.
they never vote, don’t know nuthing, and generally don’t participate in anything that isn’t wet tshirts or soccer games.
Nothing wrong with soccer games, just saying, that is ALL they are interested in ..games, hair, pedi/mani’s and TV. And britney.
You left out the football team ‘Raiders’. He wears their T-Shirts and has their decal on the pick up truck.
Faded blue/gray collar type who likes beer & sports.
Not too bright financially.
Knows more about Nascar than his municipal budget.
Sounds like to me you could also include the white collar type that likes its wine and ___________ (fill in the blank)
golf.
cocaine?
nose candy!
Yeah, we need a nickname for the Chip & Buffy crowd. They may seem to have “class” because they’re holding the bag on 1.5M rather than 800k, but they suffer the same bubble mentality, and frankly, are more annoying.
Don’t use Buffy. Buffy the Vampire Slayer is one of my all time favorite televison shows.
Sorry…. how about Chip & Daisy?
“My brother works in a supermarket and he said he’s noticed more people using coins to pay for their purchases too.”
The last few times i’ve been inside a supermarket in the city of angles, i’ve seen at least 2 people lined up to lose 9% on their 401k loose change retirement funds, by using the Coinstar machine.
“lose 9% on their 401k loose change retirement funds, by using the Coinstar machine”
Is there a big surcharge on these things? I’ve never used one.
Only time I use that machine is for pennies & nickels.
I hand-pick out all dimes & quarters. Why let the CoinStar people get 9% on the EZ coins… let them lug around bags of pennies & EARN their 9%…..
Interesting. I didn’t know there was a fee. My credit union has one that I’ve never used. I suppose I should just take our jar into the bank and sit the $ in savings.
I throw pennies and nickels in the garbage. Even dimes are arguably more trouble than they’re worth.
Chevy Chase Bank has coin sorting machines free for bank customers.
You can avoid the fee if you take it in the form of a gift certificate. I put all my change in a jar and when I get a decent amount, I buy stuff from amazon.com.
I rarely have more than a dollar in change. Try USING it, people. Anyone says it’s too troublesome and I’ll direct you back to primary school.
All of our quarters go to our laundry repair fund. Basically we celebrated getting machines of our own by starting a jar and trying to pay the same amount for loads. We’ve fallen behind (it’s hard to remember sometimes) but we’ve still made back what we spent on the machines.
At some point I’ll go to the credit union, which counts coins for free for members, and make a deposit. Easy enough to keep on top of repairs if you pay-per-use.
Thank you. Some nitwits in my 9th grade history class thought it was funny to throw pennies at the teacher - more sliding across the floor than throwing. They often under tossed and the pennies stopped near my desk close the front of the room. Instant milk money!
When there is change in my wallet, and a cash puchase requires change equal to or less than what I have available, I use it. How hard is that?
I never have more than a dollar in change in my wallet and/or on my dresser top. It’s fun to pay a bill of, let’s say, $16.72 at the checkout by offering a twenty, a one, and 72 cents in change and ask for a five dollar bill back. The look on the clerk’s face when the register indeed shows “change due- $5.00″ is frequently priceless.
Actually, I think a few of the grocery clerks recognize me and know that I am going to give them money to make the change easier. I’ve really gotten out of practice. Back before I had a washer/dryer in my apartment, I would calculate the change to get the maximum number of quarters back - a typical amount of change was $10.75. Drove them crazy.
The few attempts I have made to minimize the amount of change I lug around, I have blown the mind of the typical checkout clerk. If I dig up the change after ring it up, they are clueless what to do! Can’t seem to do elementary math.
Very few cashiers can do basic math.
When I pay with cash I always try to get back change in whole 25¢ multiples. Don’t ask me why I do this because I really do not know. (Possibly either some kindas quarter hoarding complex, or I relish messing with cashiers, or maybe both.)
My kids get to keep all of our change. Once a month we roll it and deposit it into their Navy Fed CU CD’s. They are 3 and 5 and have over $1000 each. They really get a thrill saving this money. Their math skills are great too!
My wife and I used to take our change and salt the couches when our grandkids were little.
I have been waiting for stories like this locally. Nothing for quite some time. But last week the flood gates opened. I have been hearing stories left and right about foreclosures, leveraged owners, Realtors ™
A co-worker, who’s been trying to sell his Scottsdale house for over a year (HELOCed to buy new house, spent money fixing up old house, usual story etc.) finally threw in the towel last week. The place is wildly overpriced—he owes over 500 on it, while it’s probably worth 350-400 tops. So he’s stopped paying on the 1st (BA), 2nd (Countrywide) and, yes, 3d (Etrade) and is hoping for a short sale. At least he’s kept the utilities on and stops by the property periodically to check on it. Looks like if that BA/CFC deal goes through BA gets stuck with one more bad loan.
I have been waiting for stories like this locally. Nothing for quite some time. But last week the flood gates opened. I have been hearing stories left and right about foreclosures, leveraged owners, Realtors ™– does that stand tor “turd mark”? waiting tables, it is EVERYWHERE. Bar none. People are embarrassed to talk about it until they hear similar stories then they blurt out personal financial experiences cause I’m guessing they can’t afford a shrink/financial counselor.
This is in North Idaho where it’s different. We are 2 years behind Cali here, but the writing is on the wall… I’m renting a house for $1100/mo. the landlord is paying $800+/mo. for us to live here. 4000 sq ft with a view. I have been getting the same, “you are lucky” comments, and “when will you buy” comments. I just tell them I’ll be ready to buy when they are giving them away. They don’t like to hear that. I’ll buy when I don’t have to live in the “ghetto”. There are no ghettos here, but living like a sardine is not my idea of “living”…
oops…
Went home to visit my parents for the holiday in Northern Virginia. At Tyson Corner Mall, I saw a man in his 50s working in the gap surrounded by lots of 20 something.
Meet a mortgage insurer gal at a cocktail lounge. Drives a really fancy Jaguar and works for AIG. I wonder how hard AIG will be hit?
Cinch
RE: Drives a really fancy Jaguar and works for AIG.
Kept woman by an AIG high roller.
I saw a man in his 50s working in the gap surrounded by lots of 20 something.
What’s your point on this one!
Very unusual. Never seen it before. A 50 year man working at Nordstrom or Hermes, okay.
I understand that it is a seasonal job. Maybe it is the sign of the time.
I actually thought about getting a weekend job during the holiday season just for kicks - to see what the traffic would be like. There is a shopping plaza (in MA we called them strip malls) about a two minute walk from my apartment that had stores with hiring signs.
Eventually, I didn’t bother, but it might have been interesting. I wouldn’t have tried it any of the really busy places like the toy stores, but I don’t think Plow & Hearth was overwhelmed with demand this year.
Thank your luck stars, polly. I’ve run kiosks in malls during Christmas. You basically pray that someone will kill you all day, to put you out of your misery, like if you had Hillary Clinton as your 4th grade teacher (I stole that line from P.J. O’Rourke). Did I mention the Christmas music? You will always be located (according to Murphy’s Law) as close as possible to the loudspeakers and as far as possible from the bathroom.
When I was a New Yorker, I used to joke with the kids who worked the front of the store departments at FAO Schwartz that they should get mental health hazard pay for having to listen to the “Welcome to our Wolrd of Toys” theme song all day. If no supervisor was around, they agreed - enthusiastically.
I applied this holiday season for a temp. job at Anthropology for some extra $$ and a nice discount on their rather expensive clothes. With my past retail experience I assumed I’d be a shoe-in, competing with the teeny-boppers. Was completely shocked to discover, in the group interview conducted by some bubbly Gen-Z Jennifer-type, that all the applicants were over 35, had extensive professional/corporate experience, and were seriously competing for what turned out to be an $8/hour job! That’s when I knew the jig was up.
Wow, that’s interesting. Very difficult having to do that (be interviewed by some 19-year-old kid fresh out of HS when you’ve been in the business world for a decade or more. For a “minimum wage” job, no less.
Economy sounds bad, just based on that.
bah just ignore desmo when he gets like this, most of us do.
When J6P capitulates in mass numbers, throwing in the towel…
Who’s gonna stop ‘em?
What sort of fiscal punishment can you give to someone, with nothing?
They can’t - that’s why they’re coming after OUR “lucky charms”.
Here is a Joe12 pack story…Buddy of mine, great guy and hard worker has been a successful small builder here for the last 20 years or so…Fairly well to do but lots of family costs…6 kids ranging from 3 to 18 (Don’t ask me why !!)…Anyway, he got caught in this current market…One deal he has $900,000. of his own money invested and two and a half years of his time…he has lowered the prices about 15% off his original ask and still no takers…He is going to lower another 10% which he believes will get it done…If he is successfull at the new number he will lose about $400,000. plus his time & effort…
scdave
I saw EXACTLY the same scenario in 1989 except the couple only had one kid. He was a small contractor and had built 2 houses in Glendale, ca. The downturn hit. Mild compared to what this one is going to be. One house was 95% finished (literally) and other one 100% finished. He was holding on for buyer instructions as to what carpet they required, etc. The one which was finished was listed at $625,00 and the other he was going to list at $575,000 once completed. He couldn’t sell the first one. Meanwhile, the second one was completed. Same story. No interest except low ball offers. The best lowball offer on the $625,000 property was $425,000 which he declined because, “Prices are going to start to go back up.” The prices didn’t. End of story was that he went bankrupt because he kept borrowing on the house he lived in to keep the other 2 going. It all ended very badly with a divorce (”When poverty flies in the window love flies out of the door”) and then he couldn’t get a job to pay child support and alimoney. He just left the state and nobody know where he ended up. That’s the sad thing about these boom and bust scenarios and the end results of living beyond one’s means (which most people do). It does a lot of damage financially and emotionally.
This was on WKBN our local TV station’s internet page. This from one of our local officials.
“PEOPLE ARE JUST GOING TO SPEND MONEY IF THEY GET A REBATE AND THE MONEY IS BLOWN. SOMETIMES IT REALLY DOESN’T HAVE AN IMPACT OTHER THAN BUYING PRODUCTS ON THE SHELVES. SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT AN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE, THE FAILURE OF OUR GOVERNMENT AGAIN IS WE DON’T HAVE A LONG TERM PLAN, WE HAVE A SHORT TERM STIMULUS PACKAGE.”
The “stimulus” is nothing but a payday loan. It will have to be paid back, with interest (because it’s just being added to the national debt).
this Stimulus is exactly like the one we got for $400 when W first came into office, and just like then it was an Advance on the coming (maybe 08s’) Taxes and you will not see it then or will owe it, just like last time.
West Wing had an episode on this, cause so many people did Not hear the part about it not being a loan.
Joe 6 pack is so 1970’s America…
Joe Kegger is more appropriate.
I call the ones with a ‘keg’ around their belly’ Darrel Dickiedo
’cause their belly sticks out further than their dickie do
A friend’s cousin, who once worked for a Long Island appraisal firm whose business has dried up, is now in retraining for foreclosure classes.
And the layoff talk is growing here in the city — hasn’t happened in a widespread way, but it sure is coming.
I know a lady in her mid 50’s who has been receiving disability, and has not worked in years, cleaning houses now and talking about the price of a sack of potatoes.
Her house is paid for, but the jump in insurance, water, food and gas has left her no choice but to work. She is in constant pain and gets shots very often to help with that. She gave away, to good homes her Pomeranian dogs.
*************
I talked to a friend recently who is having a hard time finding a job anywhere close to what she was making two years ago. Her husband is also working three jobs to make what he did three years ago as a bodyguard/driver. Many lucrative jobs that existed a few years ago, outside of real estate seem to have gone away. This is DC Metro area.
*************
My sister has had three pay cuts in the last 12 months. The cuts are on the commission side being restructured. She works for a cell phone company in sales. The District manager has told her in confidence that the company does not want sales rep to make more than X amount, base and commission combined, therefore the company will continue to rework the commission scale.
She says pay cuts amount to $10-15K for the top sales reps. She says a couple of the reps are doing dirty things like adding services and data packages on to peoples accounts that are not ordered, to try and boost their commissions. She says some reps are flat out lying to customers to boost their sales, to meet quotas so they don’t get fired.
The push to sell expensive data packages and meet quota is in full throttle, or lose your job. I wonder how that will work out when consumers will drop that kind of stuff first. There is a $200 penalty for dropping the two year contract.
That’s bs… she needs to look for a new sales job. I read up about the GD, and sales people who were good at what they did were able to eat through the worst of it. She needs to dump their sorry asses and find an employer who values a top sales associate instead of punishing one!
There’s a neat little scam run by T-Mobile, and probably others. When I signed up in 2006, immediately I “Q-tones” phoned me up (unbidden) and subscribed me to a monthly-charge ($10) for ring-tones. I wasn’t even aware that I’d been signed up, as I never use the text-messaging feature. After complaining to T-Mobile, they gave me a song-and-dance that they could do nothing about it. As I spoke with increasingly higher-level personnel, it became clear that this scam was corporate-policy, and that they shared the revenue with Q-tones. They eventually rescinded the fees, when it became clear that I would file a complaint.
And interestingly, T-Mobile is one of the ‘better’ ones,
The exact same thing happened to me with Q-tones. I had the same experience in getting the thing removed. I finally had to resort to disabling all internet service on the account. They claimed ignorance but knew exactly what they were doing.
One additional thing that continues to bother me…
To sign up for my cell phone, the salesman at the T-Mobile office required that I provide my social security # to sign up. I was under a lot of pressure at the time, as my AT & T landline was out (another nightmare) so I forked it over.
Obviously, I wouldn’t if I would have known more about T-mobile/Q-tone’s business practices.
Too bad Elliot Spitzer became governor of New York. This would have been an ideal case for him.
I know a career Real Estate agent nearing 50 with three children. He now works a full-time job setting up tables for a conference center.
One of our close friend’s lives are a wreck at the moment, as they are deeply in debt. When you make a good salary but have lots of debt, I’ve noticed your choices aren’t as varied as those with lower salaries and no debt. For example, they wouldn’t qualify for your run-of-the-mill apartment building — so many of those in Northern VA are income restricted. There are other choices in rental housing, of course, but you get my drift about debt.
I’ve known a few people who were trapped by earning too much money. They tend to spend $2 million if they earn $1 million, so their debts truly own them. They have no way out, and if they lose a job, it’s much more difficult to find another $1MM/yr job than a minimum wage job.
Best thing to do is keep it simple, no matter how much you make or have, IMHO.
Pensacola, FL
A couple of months ago, there was an ad for an upcoming auction of multiple condo units near the beach. I called, mainly for entertainment purposes, and asked if the condos were going to be auctioned “no reserve”. She politely replied that none were being auctioned as no reserve, but that the minimum bid was “very low”. She laughed when I said that my idea of very low was probably much less than their idea of very low.
My idea of “very low” is “no reserve.”
Saw two abandoned dogs (purebred) 300 yards from my home this morning. Staunchly middle class area east of LA. In the hood where I teach, the kids will really start stealing when recession gets rolling. Only just beginning. Went through this in 90’s.
J6P thinks he knows vilence, because he’s seen us depicted on the small and big screens that way, and up until now, he or she had to live vicariously vis a vis the entertainment medium…
I think there will be more than a few Walter Sobchak Mitty’s (John Goodman’s best performance?) out there in suburbia, that have fantasized about using their closets full of guns, finally.
There’s still time to get away…
“Falling Down.”
Speaking of stealing, it looks like there’s another item to add to the list (outside AC - copper, aluminum siding, manhole covers, etc): the catalytic converter from your car (or preferably SUV due to the larger size and easier access) so they can get the platinum from it. Supposedly only takes a minute to cut it out from under your car and thousands to replace it. Wonderful.
aladinsane always entertains.
I can see Arnoldt Joe Six Pack with a helpless young babe by his side as he takes a backhoe and rams it through the Army surplus, taking the AK47s and such. Then he shoots up Amerika because Lou Dobbs says the government is staging a war against the middle class.
LOL. Shades of the late 70s when paintball long haired boy scouts appeared in camouflage on Phil Donohue saying the sky is falling and everyone in the cities will die! LOL
High School ??
speaking of High School, just got notified that reunion is this coming summer. Should be interesting here in SoCal.
Wonder if anyone is going to show up?
Got gas?
Very interesting considering how these #s for unemployment etc are growing and money is tighter…heloced.
Did you try to get them to you? Did you call the rescue group for their breed? (You can find the breed rescue on the AKC website. Find the breed description and click on the link to rescue. The Breed rescue groups cover the whole US - some affiliates take one area, some another… but the National Breed Club and the National Breed Rescue will know how to find someone in your area to come out.)
If I were anywhere near you, I would be over in a heartbeat to round up those dogs
I’m with you about the dogs but I think, sadly, we are going to see a lot of abandoned pets as this mess gets deeper. If you lose your house, it usually means apartment living is on top of the list as your only option and most apartments will not allow animals. Not sure where you live but Governor Arnie, here in California, suggested recently that the wait time in trhe pound before the dogs are killed should be reduced to a couple of days. Nazi as*hole. There was a loud outcry from animal lovers (including me) and I think his wife, Maria, told him to drop the idea REAL quick if he wanted to keep his popularity ratings high. However, now things are getting bad if the pounds fill up……
I live near a “No-Kill” Los Angeles County animal shelter and I recently pulled a dog (mixed Chow/German sheperd) out. She had been there for 4 months.
However, “No Kill” is a mis-nomer because if the animal is not adopted after a certain period, it is shipped off to another shelter which doesn’t have a “No Kill” policy and is killed within 24 hours. The dog I pulled is so sweet. It breaks your heart to think nobody wanted her but big dogs are hard to place. Especially if they are no longer puppies. Worse, the pound attendant told me she was due to be “shipped out” to a kill pound on Wednesday. I pulled her out on the Monday.
WOW!! Hugs and tummy rubs to her and much praise to you.
My retired Service Dog is a Chow/Keeshond cross.Yep - a part Chow-Chow as a working Service Animal. She was a waif who was abandoned, wouldn’t walk on a lead for 5 years without falling to the ground screaming and peeing in fear (and I’ve trained AKC obedience dogs for 45 years now), and tried to eat her way through doors. At age 8 she retrained to help me.
She is greatly beloved by Humane Societies for showing what an abused and abandoned dog can do in the right hands with enough love and time.
She is 17 now and sprawled on the couch (slipcovers). Age and the what I owe her gives her great privileges. (And she bosses the bejesus out my young helper who outweighs her by 50+ lbs and has her by 10 inches.)
We have a beautiful orange and white cat that someone let out in out neighborhood. It sleeps on our back porch, so we put out feed and water for it at night. It is still very, very shy and maybe waiting for its owners to come back (they won’t).
The thing is we want a cat (our much loved old one died after 14 years a few months ago) … ummm, need a cat so my wife says, so with patience perhaps we will have this one.
Just be patient. Keep feeding. Maybe make up a shelter with some of your old clothes inside so it can get out of the weather (and get use to your scent.) Talk to it and call it when you bring food.
IF you really want to get the little thing is so it won’t be hit by a car or attacked by a dog, see if your animal control will lend you a live trap. They really really work. Kitty steps into get the food and triggers the plate dropping the door.
I have a little kitty waif staying with me. Found her the night of the first big snow - hungry, thin and had been attacked by something so she had a big abcess near her tail. She was huddled in the window boxes of the convenience store. Never did find her people despite putting up notices and pictures around the village - and ther are only 380 of us. Pretty clear she had beenn abandoned but had once been someone’ darling as she is very sweet and loving.
Problem is that she is terrified of my huge over-115 lb dogs . It has been 7 weeks and she refuses to come out in the house near them no matter how much they crawl on their bellies and try to be friends. (Dogs LOVE cats - already live with 2 who boss them about.) Guess I’ll have to find her a non-dog family where she can be an inside kitty.
Feeding and shelter are the first requirements for enticing a new kitty into your life. You might try sitting on the porch with the cat. Don’t sit where the cat is trapped between you and an exit, don’t try to pick up the cat. Just sit there for a half hour or so a couple of times a day. Also feed the cat at the same times every day. That way, the cat will know you are reliable.
We rescued an orange and white cat and he is the best cat ever. His vet says orange cats have great personalities. Good luck with getting this one to accept you.
little al,
Yes, what breed and where??? I’m a volunteer for an L.A. area rescue.
A friend has already seen a payment adjustment of $1000, from about $2500 a month to about $3500 a month. He can “afford” it, but he says he feels like he is (now) “just throwing money away”. He wants to downsize, but his house value has him under water at this point.
Two more families are renting houses right now after relocating here, and are in no hurry to buy.
One has two houses, one built before the boom, equity withdrawal to construct a 5000 sq. ft dream home (building and land prices at top of the market), and rent out the old one. Jumbo rates went up, house values are coming down, and now the situation is a lot less attractive than it used to…they may have even gone with a variable rate loan because fixed rate jumbos were at about 7% when they needed the financing. Still low by historical standards, but, when you are used to free money, any reasonable rate is considered high.
Another paycheck to paycheck couple (combined income around $190K a year) is facing a rate reset this year, don’t think they have the LTV to refinance into anything better…
Relative HELOC’d to the max, prices fell, now live paycheck to paycheck with husband working overtime just to keep from going under.
And those are just off the top of my head…
The two families renting aren’t the ones building at the peak, or living paycheck to paycheck…sorry for the ambiguity.
Just remembered another one…
A close relative, bought a 4-plex alligator in TX without ever visiting or seeing the neighborhood, now a massive monthly bleed, underwater, looking for any way out without having to bring $90K to the table.
What will it cost them to just walk away? Forget pride or money down, when the sh*t hits the fan.
Honestly, Bankruptcy? Chapter 13? I have mix feelings with regard to the latest change to Bankruptcy law. I don’t know what is socially the best law is. Is it ethical to side with the creditors as they write the bill that Congress went along with last year?
Cinch
“What will it cost them to just walk away”
he doesn’t know if the loan is “recourse” or not (ie can the bank come after him for the amount not recovered from foreclosure sale). Added insult is that by buying out of state, he has even less idea what the state law is regarding such matters. i told him that at the very least he should read his loan docs and contact an RE lawyer in Texas.
How can you throw money away by owning? I’ve never heard of anything so ridiculous. Owning RE is THE key to wealth accumulation - it’s a known fact, the scientific debate is over, anybody who thinks otherwise should join the Flat Earth Society.
Anybody have an application for the Flat Earth Society?
Flat earth society? Ask “Sherry” on the View.. she believes in it. Seriously.
I think there are more than a few hundred thousand FB’s out there who woudn’t agree with you on that one. Yes, when the prices hit bottom and if you are prepared to hold the property for the next 15 to 20 years (that’s how long it will take to recover to current prices once this mess is over) you might be okay but you have to take into account what that property will have cost you, not only in mortgage payments but in repairs, taxes, insurance, etc, over that period. Plus, of course, you might get stuck in one place if you wanted to sell.
I’ve always owned (sometimes a rental as well as my own home) property but since 2003 when I sold.
As far as I’m concerned, the landscape for owning property has changed. Property owners are now simply cash cows for local, state and federal governments. Everything changes and I for one would NOT own property again.
Is satire not allowed on the Joe 6 Pack thread? C’mon, Mike, you’ve been around - I’m the biggest “housing will never come back” guy on the blog.
Um, I was actually wondering about your last post. Thought it might be a joke, but OTOH, thought the aliens might have abducted you. Glad it’s the former.
I’ve seen a big increase in the number of contractor credit cards being declined at my building permit counter. Hot checks are picking up too.
hot checks = jail time?
Remember reading last year in the MSM what an abject failure the Venezuelan economic policies have been under Chavez. The proof, anecdotal evidence that over 10 people were showing up for every job posting! Well take a look at the current level of this indicator in the U.S. http://tinyurl.com/2q332v
I guess MSM’s concentration level becomes more acute when focused on problems abroad.
Additional note:
Walmart says they pay average annual salary of $17,114 (~$9.68 per hour in 2005)
$17,114 * 3.5 = an affordable home price of $65,889 with 10% down
Median Home Price in Dekalb County, Ga = ~$215,000 (realtytrac)
One wonders if the MSM ‘proof’ of what a failure the Venezuelan economy is (i.e., ten people per job posting) is coming from the editorial, and not the reporterial, level.
Mainstream reporters should be very well aware how bad the economy is, due to the large number of newspapers that are shedding newsroom staff. The carnage here at the San Diego Union Tribune is amazing.
And of course, things aren’t nearly so bad for MSM management…they will still get their’s, no matter what.
Texas is truck country, and the number of newer trucks on the road now with for sale signs in the back window is very noticeable. You have to understand these Texans love their trucks more than gold bugs love their gold. Disclaimer: I am 20% in gold,
In mid 2005 I found Ben’s blog and since then:
Charity giving is down
Not for profits are laying off
More people going to food banks
Animals are being abandoned in droves
Sales tax collections are down
Building permits are down
Housing prices are falling, nationally
Credit card debt is up
Credit card late payments are up
Bankruptcies are ticking up
Foreclosures are exploding
Car loan lates are up
Vehicle repos are up
Vehicles sales are down
Fed is worried about inflation
Fed is worried about deflation
Unemployment is up
Housing sales down
Savings rate is down
Small Business Bankruptcies up
Small Business closings up
Layoffs up
Hiring freezes up
Retail sales down
Dollar is down
Gold is up
Stocks are down
Builders going bust
Food up
Gasoline up
Banks are in trouble
I NEVER thought I would see this combination in my lifetime.
How old were you during the Carter administration? My wife still gets angry when she remembers what we went through during those years.
Ditto Here…..
It was not fun at all. I dread facing that again.
I was a young child back then. My family went from middle class to living in a two bedroom trailer with three kids. At times things were tight. Sometimes their was heat, sometimes not. Sometimes meals were very skimpy. However, it was bliss in many ways…the family played games togeather, and had unity. My siblings and I never knew what was going on. I know it was another story for the adults.
A lot of people are going to be slapped by reality.
Bill,
What is your view on comparing that time to now and what you see on the horizon? Simular, worse or bettor?
This is going to be worse - far far far worse.
I finished college in ‘76. Family business was started by my grandparents in 1930 (yep - it did make it) and was okay back then. Parents closed it when they retired in the late 80’s.
I remember my parents buying a new 38′ boat in 1975 - and it definitely did not sit in the dock in the late 70s. (Father did put an end to waterskiing behind it though because it only got 1 mile per gallon - did get us an 18′ ski boat instead as it was more ‘fuel efficient.’ )
I was in grad school then through Dec. ‘79. Parents did put a cap on how much I could charge on the American Express.
I was practicing labor law in the Ohio-PA-IL area after ‘79. The economic devastation from the plant closings was unbelievable.
This will be worse - much worse. The problems of the late 70’s - mid-80s were different. (And Reagan made it worse - still high interest rates, job cuts etc…) Then it was because of inflation primarily triggered by rising fuel prices and in turn workers were able to demand, and get, wage increases to keep up which meant they had more money and prices could keep rising. The Fed jacked the interest rates to slow the inflation (reduce ability to borrow money for big items) – but it also caused cutbacks in jobs and hiring.
This time wage earners do NOT have the money - they haven’t had the money in years and incomes have been flat or dropping relative to inflation for nearly 6 years. The way households kept up was by borrowing money and then doing the juggling act to keep the balls in the air.
This time inflation is being driven by things for which demand is pretty inflexible - food, heat, gas to get to work, healthcare….. In the 70s-80s, people could cut back on buying the new car, buying the new washer, buying a bigger house and still pretty much maintain their lifestyle. Cut back on food? Heat? All the other toys (SUVs, ATVs, fancy vacations, bigger houses) were being purchased not from their real income but from wild borrowing they could never repay. Even if they stop the borrowing, their incomes are not keeping up, and have not kept up, with the rising cost of the necessities.
Raising interest rates will not reduce demand for food, heat and treatment for cancer. Lowering interest rates will not increase demand for ‘stuff’ because the households simply do not have the money to make the payments if they have to pay principal and interest.
70s- 80: Wages kept up with inflation which maintained buying which sent prices higher which sent wages up……. Fed stopped it by jacking interest rates so even though households had the same income, they could only spend real income and not borrowed money. Ditto businesses so it caused a cutback in jobs and stopped the expansion of business. That time period was deliberately created by Federal Reserve policies.
90s-00s: Wages didn’t keep up with inflation. To maintain buying, households went to wild borrowing where they could not actually repay the principal and even low interest. Now inflation is accelerating for necessities and incomes are falling further and further behind (except for the top 1% who saw their after-tax incomes increase by 43.5% from’03-’05.) Too many jobs created in this time period were ‘make work’ – massage therapists, personal trainers, delivered lunches and groceries, more restaurants than one could eat at in a year if on a 1960s-70s budget plan, DJs for parties, $75,000 weddings, consultants and advisors for everything in life……all fro-fro stuff that is not substantive or of intrinsic value. All these services were paid for with borrowed money. Now those jobs will disappear since who can pay for them out of current income? Borrowing is no longer an option – Joe and Jane are tapped out on credit and can’t even make the payments they owe now. This is way way way out of the control of the Fed. Reserve.
My parents had the boats and the yacht club but mom cleaned the house herself (or my sister and I had to do it), there was no lawn service, no ‘personal trainer, no Botox injections, no new clothes for every season ‘just because’, no any of the stuff that people spend money on when they can do it themselves. (Hell, they even maintained the boats with the painting, sanding and repairs – even brought them home to store during the winter in our buildings. Hauling a 32-38 ft boat is not to be undertaken lightly.)
What happens to all those massage therapists, dog groomers, lawn services, party planners, wedding consultants, parenting consultants, florists, and all the rest who do non-essential service work? Where do they go? How do they make money to live? This isn’t just the unemployed construction workers, mortgage lenders and realtors. It will be far larger. Telling all these people to go back to school and get a degree in something is nuts. (1) They can not afford the tuition (2) Degree in what? So there can be so many engineers that they only make minimum wage? And (3) The incomes of college graduates have already been falling for the past 6 years – too many with degrees, too few jobs.
This is going to be horrible. People will be desperate to obtain food, housing and medical care. The only way out is for there to be jobs that actually produce something solid and substantive that can be exported – and those jobs were shipped out of the US under the ‘free trade’ banner.
My training in social, political and economic history does find a parallel in US history. And it will be worse than it was during that time.
You are scaring me. Damn, I hope my brother gets tenure this year.
“So there can be so many engineers that they make minimum wage?”
Ha, ha, ha….Do you think people will go back to school to get engineering degrees? I’m sure Calc I, Calc, II, Calc III, Diff Eq, Electronics, Thermodynamics, and Fluids will keep them out….and those were the easy classes.
Personally I loathed Integral Calculus III bt adored biochemistry (and I wasn’t even a science major but it was a very demanding college that insisted on a distribution of subjects and there were NO dumbed down classes for those not majoring in an area.)
Point is there are really no fields where a large influx of people will not depress wages. Even engineering can be out sourced to India or China.
So what happens to all these people? MBAs - already a dime a dozen. Med school or nursing school? Already too few places for too many applicants. More useless Associates in things like engineering design drafting, or ‘early childhood education’ or social work or ‘business’?
ANY field can become ove-crowded and depress wages if there more people looking for jobs in the field than there are jobs. Just ask the computer tech types about what happened to their 21st century jobs.
Ann,
This is exactly what is unfolding.
The 2008 collapsing economy will remind some of what they read or heard about the Great Depression, but the New Depression will hit a population much less self sufficient, much less prepared financially, much more addicted to a psychology of entitlement, much less patriotic, much less family oriented.
“Social unrest and upheaval” could be putting it mildly.
AnnScott,
Insightful. I am ordering Rothbard’s book on the Great Depression tonight (Already read “The Forgotten Man”).
The Hyperinflationary Depression will be here by 2010 (IMO), after a few attempts to stale it does not work. This one is going to be the Weimar Republic/Argentina Currency Collapse 2001 nightmare.This time we are dealing with globalization, Bernanke as the Chairman, and a more violent society. I cry for all us Americans, and for those who never thought they would experience it again.
Mormon-tea
Read an interesting book the other day called “First Into Nagaski”. It was the actual reports of the first reporter to get to Nagaski (breaking McArthur’s rules) and then to interview US POWs in the Japanese slave labor camps nearby. The material was not passed by the US censors in 1945 and was lost for years. His son found it after his death and published it.
Particularly pertinent are the interviews with the POWs. (Some really horrific things about the Death or Hell Ships and the camps.) The Japanese segregated the camps by nationality - Brits in one, Aussies in another, US in another.
He wrote that even thought the Aussies and Brits sufferred as much on these Hell Ships as did the Americans, “it would appear that only the American prisoners at sea [and largely composed of officers]committed acts of murder, vampirism and even cannibalism to survive……It has been aruged that each nationality was protected by its character against such a breakdown; that the Australians were better at mucking in together; or the rigid class system enabled British officers to keep order and “resist an every-man-for-himself mentality that American prisoners, for whatever reason, were unable to fend off…[I}n the POW camps ony the Americans seemed to re-creaate a harsh capitalistic system that resulted in food trading.”
And that was what we now call the “Greatest Generation”……and now????
I think there were different experiences depending on individual situations. Kind of like my mother in law describes the original Great Depression (in Syracuse) as not that bad since her father was always employed.
I don’t remember the 80s (in NH) as bad as my father was self employed. He did bemoan that his numbers were down but I don’t remember cutting back on anything. I was in college (which I did pay for myself) When I went home everything was the same. No cut backs, no limitations. I got a job for a good salary about 9 mos after graduating…a job they created specifically for me after seeing a business I created in college. I guess since everyone else had to spend a bit of time pounding the pavement for that first job, I didn’t think of the delay as a problem…just dues.
Perhaps its all about expectations. Perhaps Mom and Dad didn’t have the biggest house in town in the times when the cash was flowing and were ready when things slowed down. All I know is I look back on the 80s as a really fun and exciting time. I was young, things were happening and the future was wide open for me. Really.
I don’t expect this to be any worse than the Carter years. The majority will still have jobs. The majority of homeowners will not go into foreclosure (40% own outright, so it only takes 11% of mortgaged folks holding onto their homes to make this come true). Renters are of course secure.
People adapt, improvise, and overcome.
Unfortunately another bubble will likely replace this one in the news in just a few years. I’m betting it will be an alternative energy bubble.
On the issue of the 40% homeowners that own outright not going bankrupt.
It may be way too optimistic to assume that they’ll be all right. Depends on the %’s that have large auto loans, HELOC loans, outstanding credit card debts, jobs, jobs with key benefits such as health insurance. Combine that with the recent revised laws that increase the difficulties/penalties of declaring bankruptcy.
Home ownership itself will be less valuable, with declines real estate prices and enhanced restrictions on home equity loans.
Latter-day Bushvilles, aka Hoovervilles, may be just around the corner.
Looks like we found another charter member of the “depression camp”.
Excellent post overall, Ann.
Ditto what tj said.
Excellent posts, Ann. You always have thoughtful, well-researched posts.
There is one new variable in this neew down sizing. The huge number of Baby Boomers retiring in the next 10 years. Companies may out source…but there will still be a qualified worker shortage. If you see all the Chinese and Indian workers being hired where I work because there are no American qualified it is weird. Americans do not like math. When I lose my job…I will either head to the government area for 50% salary decrease and hopefully 75% less stress or the health care field. I’m a former Army EMT…a three year nursing degree would be cake and all these old people need to give their money to someone. Rent don’t buy.
Carter let the mentally ill run loose in Santa Monica. I was in College at the time.
Hey SM landlord- remember the Sunspot?
Barely. That was the club down on PCH under the landslide near WIll Rogers beach, right?
From 1974 - 1980 or so I lived in Hollywood for a few years, so I was out of SM during the prime period, I guess. I was spending 16 hours per day in the studio, so I needed to live close to work. The only clubbing I had time for was at the Roxy and the Troub, and not even much of that, mostly for business. I actually did pretty well during the ’70s, ended up owning some commercial RE to keep my income taxes under control. In those days, you could protect a lot of income by depreciating income property, even if your main source of income was not RE.
The reality check for me was the early ’80s when the music business hit the dumper, Carter had pretty much run the country into the ground, and I decided to change careers. The Reagan tax reform caused commercial RE to crash, wiping out most of my RE investments. So for me at least, the ’70s were good and a lot of the 1980s were not so good - I spent the second half of the 1980s digging out from the first half.
But my experience is probably unusual.
Acutally that is NOT true. Carter had nothing - zip, zero, nada - to do with the change in the mental healthcare system.
A US Sup. CT decision came down that basically said people could not be locked up if there was a ‘less restrictive alternative.’ That meant a lot of patients were released who could be treated on an out patient basis or if placed in group homes. Problem is the out patient and group infrastructure didn’t exist, wasn’t ever funded as it needed to be by the Feds or states and still doesn’t exist.
That really was implemented under Reagan who cut the funding for mental health through DHS - after all, hopsitals were no longer needed - or so he argued. He promised funding for out patient and group homes but of course spent the money on his military toys.
No it wasn’t Carter, it was Reagan who passed the laws closing all mental psychiatric facilities in the state of CA.
So, since the 80s all the other states/US passed laws that did the same thing and poof so many homeless with illnesses.
Nope it wasn’t Carter, it was Reaguns.
Yep. Reagan, not Carter.
I posted this a few weeks back, My wife was talking to one of her friends who got a boob job this last September. She was freaking out about money. They have lived in their home in SoCal for over 5 years but turns out have been serial refinancers. When my wife told me the story, I said, “then why the f#$% did she just buy herself some boobs? Those things have got to be a months mortgage payment each” I am sorry I have no sympathy for people who have spent their HELOC money on fake breasts or flashy rims for their SUV.
“then why the f#$% did she just buy herself some boobs? Those things have got to be a months mortgage payment each”
At least they can’t be repo’d!
Maybe she can rent them out @ a 6% CAP….
Flippin’ nips and tucks have skyrocketed.
Being single, touch ups are mandatory.
No forehead lifts for this saver.
Stocking up on large bags of brown rice instead.
If she plays it right, I’m sure she will be just fine. Her husband on the other hand…..
If you could get a di*k job, wouldn`t you want to do that?
A furniture store in my area that lots of people love is going out of business. They sell a much higher quality than Ikea or Jennifer but much cheaper than some of the really high end stuff - think Storehouse or Pottery Barn quality, but more interesting and less pretentious. I was planning to shop there in a bit (my sofa is old, cream colored and getting less comfortable), but it may be gone by the time I can clear out the space.
This brings me to another problem. I have about as safe a job as you can get. Even better, I like it. And yet, I was laid off in the last economic downturn, and I am having a very hard time spending money. Not on things I absolutely need - I can still manage that, but on things I want. Things I really want and would make my life more enjoyable. If the emotional impact is this severe on me, I have to imagine it is worse for people who got laid off the last time and are now in vulnerable jobs. OK, I know most are more reckless than I am, but whan it has happened to you once, you can’t really forget the feeling.
Oh, and I got an e-mail from Fidelity yesterday. They have re-opened the Magellan Fund to new investors. First time in years. They must be hurting from people either withdrawing funds or shifting most of their investments to “safe” funds with very low investment advisory fees. I’m not sure why, but I get the sinking feeling this is huge news.
You’re right, it is big news.
If you’re interested in an investment that I classify as a Nervous-Nellie fund then take a look at HSTRX (75% TIPS). Brokered, short-term CDs through Fidelity should give you 4.5% or a little more. Vanguard takes a smaller cut than Fidelity does so you usually get 15 BPs more on CDs through Vanguard.
If you’re willing to take a bit more risk look at the actively-managed bear market fund BEARX. It’s short homebuilders, retailers, and financials and is long T-Bills and some mining shares.
90% into CDs since Nov ‘07 & BEARX too. Bear so far has been on the flip side of the S&P 500. You won’t make a killing, BUT if she rallies you won’t get nuked when you run with the ultra short funds.
I bought a bunch of BEARX last summer to offset some of my long positions, the few long positions I did keep, that is. It’s done very, very nicely since then, 20%+ gain compared to losses since that time in some investments I sold (whew). BEARX isn’t a pure short play, and there are some facets of it (e.g. mining) that can keep is stable or at least reduce its losses if the market turns up.
When the economic situation and stock market improves in a big way (ha, when?!), BEARX will take a bit of a hit, perhaps a big hit over the course of several months, so I consider it “insurance” to some extent. And in case you are wondering, I’m planning to hold on to this “insurance”, most probably through this year and quite likely longer.
I have a large position in Hussman Strategic Growth fund, which is fully hedged to the market index (SP 500). In bull markets it tends to have MM like returns, but during bear markets it shines. It is in the long-short category and there are others as well. Check it out, Hussman does amazing research and publishes it weekly at his fund’s website.
Polly,
I’m feeling the same way. Super stable job with seniority, same for the hubbie in a place and field with massive retirement waves starting now. We both bike to work and can walk in a pinch. But my surplus spending (what I made from art sales which finally dipped in Sept.) has come to a screeching halt. It’s been sitting in a savings account but I suppose I should just move it to a CD. I just can’t figure out where.
Same here, I can’t bring myself to spend outside of the monthly utilities and grocery store. Went out to eat once since Sept 07. Bought one $125 Christmas present. I am not trying to be stingy or cheap, but am overwhelmed by the events taking place and went into preservation mode in mid 2005 after “seeing” the bigger picture.
I keep hearing if the SHTF…..too me it is hitting the fan and picking up speed, so I worked on getting out of the way best I can. We rent and clamped down on spending.
Your anxieties puts you in solid ground. Most FB never really thought about the consequences when they buy a overpriced pig of a house and lose their job. If you miss one payment, you got to cover it the next month and these mortage payments may run 3,000 to 5,000 a month. Think about it. You have to come up with 6000 to 10,000 dollars for the second month. Wholly smokes.
Admittedly, I kind of bought a few frivoulus items in 2007 which I could do without. (new golf clubs, ipod, high end clothes, etc. and all bought in cash) DAMN savings account keeps growing every month. But in 2008, I am also concerned about the economy and the risk of losing my job. My goal now is to add more money (probably another 4K)to my account every month.
And if I lose my job, I’ve been around the block more than anyone and my skills are fairly broad and I could probably get a job fairly quick. I’ve been luck so far. I’m not a laborer but more on the white collar end. My family can withstand a recession. Of course if you plan for it.
Anybody can buy a house but not everybody can make the payments.
I am most concerned with job loss. The company I work for just announced a layoff. They will try to hit the numbers with a voluntary plan first, then involuntary in the next 60 to 90 days. At 50+ and making a good salary I am hoping that my skills and experience will get me a position should I get caught up in this or a future RIF. Bonuses that were up in the 20 - 30k range vaporized after a takeover and along with the RIF announcement this week they told us that there will be no 2008 merit pay increases. ISOs are almost underwater as the price since merger has dropped by 2/3. I’m in good shape with savings and no debt , car is paid for and my expenses are fair, being in SoCal. I’ll scrub my budget even more now. My brother just moved in so that will help add to savings. It’s getting interesting for sure.
Polly things like:
Skin care stuff?
Hair care products?
Pet care stuff?
Small electronics?
Books on hobbies?
New music cd’s?
Vacations?
Car detail?
Gourmet goodies?
Garden supplies?
Donations?
Self Gifting?
Oh and crap those scary Vet and Dental bills!
Off to floss.
I did skip going to the dentist last October. I’ll go now that I have money in the flex spending account.
I’m not a big believer in fancy skin care products. Rubbing stuff on the outside of your face is not likely to fix deep damage from decades of sun exposure. So, the cheap stuff is fine when I want to add moisture. I have easy hair, so a bucket of Aussie shampoo is all I need.
Can’t really buy books - no more room to add book cases. I did donate 80 to the friends of the library before the new year.
Car detail? On a 97 Ford Taurus with a dented front left fender? No thanks. Got new wipers and changed the oil a few weeks ago. By the way, I bought it for cash in 2001 from my former employer as a retired fleet car - for the estimated wholesale auction price.
I borrowed a pile of of CD’s from my uncle over Thanksgiving, loaded them on my ipod and mailed them back to him. Total cost? About $0.21 per disk. The ipod was free because I saved incentive points from the legal research service while getting my LLM.
Doubled my Combined Federal Campaign donations this year. It’s not a lot, but it’s something.
No pets, so no pet and vet bills - I’m allergic to fur and feathers. Not having to keep the heat/ac on for animals helps keep gas and electric bills down too
But I do want to go back to taking a ceramics class this year. I found one that is very easy to get to and on a good day and time, but it is a little hard to just sign up for the thing. I would like a new TV, as my big one died months ago and I’m currently watching a 19 inch, 30 year old Sears model that my brother gave me when he moved in with his then fiance, now wife. And I would like a flat panel computer monitor so I can be more efficient working at my desk. All perfectly reasonable things for a person with a good income, savings and zero debt to contemplate. But it is at least $2500 worth of stuff, I think. A hard thing to contemplate with my emotions telling me to buckle down for a recession. Though, now that I think about it, I probably spent that on my brother’s wedding two years ago (dress, alterations, shoes, mandatory spa day, hotel, plane tickets, gifts for wedding and shower, etc.). Maybe that puts it in perspective.
Skin care stuff? - Crabtree and Evelyn Gardner’s Hand Therapy. Works a treat since I am outside a LOT. 2 large tubes a year for total of $40.
Hair care products? - Johnson’s Baby shampoo and Pantene conditioner. ($11 a month)
Pet care stuff? - ouch. 1 dog is a Service Dog so he goes under medical. Food for the other 2 dogs and the 2 cats is $82 a month. Baths are me saying “In the tub, stand still - DO IT NOW” and their shampoos from a dog show supplier for about $40 a year.
Small electronics? Naw. Nothing I need or want. Upgraded the wireless router last year as the old one was 4 years old -and got it aat 75% off.
Books on hobbies? Nope. Library is great.
New music cd’s? Nope. Still working on recording the 300 LPs to CD. Bought the hardware and software to do that 3 years ago for $85. CDs are about 20-30 cents.
Vacations? Since people spend thousands of $$$ per weekto come to where I live, where would I go? I LIVE in a vacation place.
Car detail? HA HA HAH……on a ‘92 and 96 Escort wagon?? I take the shop vac a couple times a year and vaccum out the beach sand, plant and garden debris and dog hair. There is something that will go south in the economy - car detailing - when people get out there and clean up the car themselves.
Gourmet goodies? Nope. I am a better cook than 90% of the restaurants within 400 miles.
Garden supplies? Okay - you got me. I spend about $2000-3000 a year on my gardens which encompass nearly 2000 sq ft.
Donations? Food pantry, locals families who need help and I do volunteer work in counseling on financial matters.
Self Gifting? There is nothing I really want (except a very very large boat - and hubby won’t agree to a 32 ft or bigger boat.) If you sent me to the mall to spend $5000, I can’t think of anything that I would buy. May buy a history text for $6 this week - can’t convince my library to sell me theirs even though I seem to be the only one who reads it regularly as a reference.
Oh and crap those scary Vet and Dental bills! Vet…….about $600 a year but at least 1/3 that is tax deductible forthe Service Dog. Dental? Haven’t needed anything more than a cleaning in over 36 years.
Oh, I am so much the trailer trash of the group. I won’t even talk about what I spend. And I live in California, so I can buy plants in January. In fact, bought three today.
Polly,
I got the same e-mail. Beleive they stated they opened it because Boomers were withdrawing funds as they retire (pay close attention to that, IMHO, deflation is “in the bag”).
Up until recently, Joe6Pack had to self-designate himself as a sub-90 IQer by spending 1-2 months’ salary and BUYING those highly-polished spoked wheels and oversized rims for his low-rider Honda Civic. Now, you can RENT the rims. I kid you not. (A few seconds of brain work reveals that there is a supply glut, just like in the HB market, with production ramped up just as previous buyers are flipping/dumping/reselling. In fact, many are probably dead, without licenses, or incarcerated within a year of ownership, resulting in even more supply.)
“I once said, “We will bury you,” and I got into trouble with it. Of course we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you.”
Nikita Khrushchev
Ben, this thread is great (and NYCboy - who asked for this -think it was nyc boy anyway). Would be great to have a J6P thread at least once a month.
In answer to what is going on outside NYC, here is what we are seeing:
Restaurants - owner described them as ’scary quiet’
People switching brands to the cheaper variety. Having just pumped the one-and-only convienence store for info on buying patterns, here is what they told me:
(1) Sales 7UP products (99 cents) up; sales of Coke & Pepsi ($1.49) down
(2) buyers switching from $6.80 pack cigarettes to $5 2::1 deals of any brand
(3) buyers switching from boutique ales (NewCastle) to mass produced ales (Killian’s Red Ale) then to premium beers (Coors, Molson, Labatts) then to cheaper beers (Miller High Life, Busch) and then to the cheapest (Natural, Milwaukee’s Best.) They just keep going downward in the price they will pay -but are stilling buying the beer probably to help ignore reality. So far they have only dropped 1-2 levels but they are dropping.
(4) More regular customers are puttingin $5-10 of gas at a time rather than filling up.
Grocery is carrying fewer and fewer of the frozen dinner stuff like Stouffers or other brands. It is just not selling. People are buying ingredients instead.
Hairdressers’ shops are quiet. Can get a same day - even same hour - appointment if you want.
Long-time established contractors are
(1) having to cut their rates and job bids; and
(2) get the money up front even for just remodelling projects because the loans are not coming through.
People are actually paying up front for contracting work?
That’s generally unwise, as I’m sure you know.
Not around here. The village only has 380 people, county only around 11,000 permanent residents. Real real real hard to screw your neighbor. Everyone who is breathing hears about it within 36 hours. In fact, if you looked at our phone book, you would think there were only 1-3 contractors of any type. The best people do not even advertise - it is all wword-of-mouth. When we decide to build, I will have to plan at least 2 years in advance to get on my one neighbor’s list. (And easy for me to find him - he lives 6 doors down the street and has been there for 30 years, his son lives 8 houses away, his wife is my GP’s RN, the family has been in this town for 155 years…..)
Best method is to have the client put the money in an escrowed account before work begins with a draw by the contractor at different stages. the contractor knows the money is there and the property owner knows the work will get done.
Around here is was never necessary to make sure the money was there before starting work. Now, it is happening that people will have the work started and find out they really can’t get the loan or get as much as they had thought or their own business has taken a downturn.
Ann, you live in a different world than I do. Finding an honest contractor around here is difficult, and they all overcharge. I had one guy who wanted to charge me hourly from the time his truck left his house in the morning until it got home in the evening. And the quality of work is unbelievably bad - when you point out substandard work, they say things like: “Well, that’s the best job that anyone will do.” And they’re largely right - the standard of quality is hopeless.
In the last 15 years, I have only found one painter who managed to avoid painting the brass hinges when painting doors and cupboards. They just don’t get it. And if you suggest that they remove the hardware before painting, they look at you like you’ve lost your mind.
I retired early to this world. In my prior life I had these annoying things around called ‘client.’ We did business law. There was always what the client wanted, what the law allowed and then what I would permit. Disobey me and get kicked out of our practice. I did have some wonderful clients who were old-school contractors - did fabulous work, took great pride in it and stood behind the finished product. They could literally look at a picture of a house and build it without any fancy blueprints. (They would be well over 90 now.)
My contractor-neighbor is a wonderful man. In the winter his business does the snowplowing for all private developments in the area and the businesses, And he slips in plows out my drive and waves off payment with ‘buy me a cup of coffee.’ Our local electrician is getting up there and only does work for select clients. Interesting man - grew up in Texas and old drinking buddy of Willie Nelson. When Nelson performs in the area they still hook up for a night out.
I do knnow what you mean about the quality of work anymore. I’m incredibly fussy since we would buy, gut and redo houses ourselves. I even insist that wiring in outbuildings be run through PVC, refuse to use anything but real varnish and learned how to do real plaster and mix milk paint……..
I have to disagree with you on the quality of work in the West LA, SM area. There are some very talented and skilled contractors in our neighborhood, and I am one of them. No offense to you, but landlords looking for contractors to fix up apartments after tenants move out are scraping the bottom of the barrel. The problem is, for those that are good enough, there is still tons of work in this area. Landlords are usually on a tight budget, so your selection of contractors at that point is a bit limited. Many of these guys just grab a few illegals down at Home Depot and bring them over to your building to do the job.
Went to Albertsons today and other shopper suggested NEW FIND.. the other guy was trying to figure out what spices to get and how much to spend on those small bottles, when VOILA, Albertsons (maybe others) are selling a self brand of BIG bottles at cheap prices of spices. But the special spices will still have to be purchased at premium prices for tiny bottles, and saved forever in pantry!
Ann Scott, got any other ideas for spices , easy ideas for non gardeners?
Tarragon
Oregano
Basil
Lavender (nice scent)
Sage
Parsley
Thyme
Hyssop
Mint (lots of varieties)
Rosemary
Horse radish
Paprika
Cayenne
Cilantro
Spices like cinnamon are tropical but you can go wildwith the herbs (see above)
Check out the catalog for Bluestone Perennials
http://www.bluestoneperennials.com/b/bp/index.html?id=HwnVtxzy
Super plants. They have a great sale around April or May with up to 1/2 off. I have been to their nursery - and dragged home 37 new varieties of perennials (sigh….thought I was exercising self-control….for me.) Their nursery is east of Cleveland Ohio - about 45 minutes - and prices are even lower there. Only mail-order live plants that I will do.
I don’t think you’re supposed to hold onto spices for more than a year, they lose their flavor/potency. At least in SoCal grocery stores there’s an inexpensive selection from a Mexican vendor of small plastic bags of many popular spices likes cloves, cinnamon, nutmeg. Recent discovery–buy whole nutmeg acorns (or whatever you call them) and grind them as needed. The difference in flavor is incredible.
Huckleberry’s and Fred Meyer both carry spices in bulk (Huck’s has a better selection IMO) and you can literally get them for pennies on the dollar compared to buying the bottles. Always under a buck, usually under 50 cents to fill a spice bottle. If you have either store in your area check it out. There are some exceptions like saffron and ground cardamom which are too expensive so they don’t offer them, but they carry most. I also love to grow fresh herbs and may grow easily from seed and are great container plants.
There’s a show produced by the local Washington, DC PBS affiliate (WETA) that I enjoy watching called Inside Washington.
The panel spent a good part of yesterday’s show talking about the economy, and the syndicated columnist Charles Krauthheimer (bleh, can NOT stand this guy) blamed everything on higher oil prices. His arguement was that the 50% run-up in oil prices since August 2007 translated in to approx $150 to $200 Billion increase that Americans had to pay at the pump….and so his belief was that if we could get oil prices back down to $60 (unlikely) or off-set that $200 Billion with tax-cuts or a stimulus package, then everything will be hunky-dory…just another example of why it’s so hard for me to trust anything the MSM puts out these days.
Most of the increase in the cost of oil is attributable to the decline in the value of the dollar. I’m not sure of the exact amount. Maybe VT Dan can point me in the right direction…
Not too tough. Google: dollar index. Google: oil prices. I’ll leave the legwork to you but the correct answer is that for 2007 MUCH LESS than 50% of the increase in the price of a barrel of oil is dollar-specific. Another way of saying this is that in a basket of non-dollar currencies the increase in the price of oil was more than 50% of what it was in the U.S.
Fall in dollar is overstated in the general consciousness relative to the increase in commodity prices, especially in the most recent 12 months.
Local Home Depot sales off 17% last year (inside source). Management not happy (predictably).
National merchandiser said her retail sales were off 50% in southeast during recent business trip. Sounded very worried about “R” word.
Cocky real estate investor looked ashen last time I saw him, about 6 months ago. Things “not going so well”. End of conversation.
This is SoCal.
Anyone notice how the chain restaurants are all running specials: appetizer, entree and dessert for $12, etc.
Two anecdotals,
A friend who had drunk the kool aid and bought more than he could afford actually listened to me last year, sold and moved into an apartment and is doing fine.
In 2005 I made a bet with a permabull that prices would come down in OC. When I called him on the bet in Sept. of 06 after seeing the first Dataquick decrease for our zip he weaseled around and claimed HIS house hadn’t dropped in value according to Zillow. Dude bought in 2004 for 770k, Zestimate in 2006 was 865k. I just checked that Zestimate on his place last night and it’s down to 700k. Looks like it’s going down to me. I already know he is not an honorable dude based on our last exchange so I do not expect to collect on the bet, but knowing who he is now and knowing by his own metrics he has been proven wrong is sweet enough.
Big auto-related manufacturing lay-off in a midwest state caught my BIL and sister. They live on the edge as it is. The severance package gets them through March and after that it looks bad. There are no jobs to replace what he had.
My other sister (in the same state) manages a temp agency. Business is way off lately. They’ve let a lot of people go.
I am not a mortgage broker, but I do lease space in a broker’s office in the Rocky Mountains. This particular place has lost 80% of its agents in the last year due to lack of business. The remaining people are decent folks. However, they all seem to be deeply in debt. I frequently hear conversations about getting a second job or having to sell the house and rent. There isn’t even a small bit of common sense to share between the group of them. Mortgage brokers who are broke and unable to manage their own finances don’t inspire me to hire them.
Costco was packed today at 11 am (Saturday).
An apparently affluent friend commented a few weeks ago that he hopes he can refinance into a fixed rate loan soon because his is getting ready to reset and he can’t make the payment while retaining his lifestyle. His condo is fully decked out with artwork and nice furniture. He also just treated himself to a brand new Pioneer Elite Pro-150FD plasma tv that he showed us at his catered Christmas party. I suspect that the image-centric focus will get stripped away as this crash really gets into gear.
Finally, none of my friends who have mocked me over the last 2 years have said jack to me about being correct about this bust. I don’t really expect it as there is rarely any glory for those who correctly predict bad things. With that, I want to say “thank you” to Ben and some other select bloggers for carrying the torch and educating me. I will be hitting the tip jar directly after posting this message.