It Could Get Real Nasty In Texas
The Houston Chronicle reports from Texas. “Houston-area home sales fell 4 percent last year, but 2007 still marked the second-best year on record after sales peaked in 2006. The largest piece of the market, homes priced between $80,000 and $150,000, were the hardest hit last year, falling 11.6 percent. Those home sales represented nearly 39 percent of the 69,441 properties sold through the MLS in 2007. They include mostly used but some new homes.”
“That segment has slowed because fewer people have been able to qualify for loans since subprime lending came to a halt last year. ‘If you’re making $2,000 a month and have a $300 or $400 car note, you can’t qualify to buy anything,’ said Shad Bogany of ERA Bogany Properties.”
“Edmund Choi and his family hope they won’t be affected when they put their four-bedroom Missouri City house on the market later this month. ‘I’m a little nervous,’ said Choi, who bought his home new than 12 years ago for $140,000. ‘I have a feeling I’m not going to get what I want to get.’”
“The number of listings expected to close within the next 30 days was down 13.6 percent at the end of December. The number of available homes is also rising. At the end of December, 49,566 properties were on the market, an increase of 14 percent compared to last year.”
The American Statesman. “More Central Texans are feeling the pangs of foreclosure, and more pain could be in store. Foreclosure postings for the Feb. 5 auctions rose 56 percent from the same month last year in four Austin-area counties, Travis, Williamson, Hays and Bastrop, according to Foreclosure Listing Service.”
“Williamson County had the highest gain among the 20 counties, up 98 percent. Its 301 postings were a county record and the first time its foreclosure notices have topped 300 in a single month, the report said.”
“Hays County’s postings were up 57 percent, Travis County’s jumped 38 percent and Bastrop County’s rose 18 percent. The 832 notices filed in the four counties is the second-highest number on record, the report noted.”
“‘The number of foreclosures are certainly up; there’s no doubt about that. But comparing year-over-year percentage increases won’t always tell the whole story,’ said David Reed, president of CD Reed Mortgage Bankers in Austin.”
“‘We’ve got more foreclosure postings, but we’ve also sold a whole lot more homes over the past three or four years. If you set records in the number of homes sold, you’re obviously going to get the increase in foreclosure postings that go along with it,’ he said.”
“Reed said that if Central Texas were ‘in the middle of a major price reductions — which we’re certainly not — across the board for single family residences, I’d be more concerned. But I don’t think you can make too much out of it. Personally, I think it’s more of an indication of the sheer volume of homes sold.’”
“Central Texas home sales declined 13 percent in November from a year earlier, down for the sixth month in a row, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. Pending sales for December plunged 41 percent, an indicator that the year ended with an even bigger drop.”
“‘Those buyers who were there a year or two ago aren’t there anymore, or at least not on the same basis,’ said Jim Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.”
“The appreciation might be skewed by fewer sales of lower-price homes because many entry-level buyers are locked out of the market, said agent Sam Chapman. ‘We’re seeing the median price being higher because lower-end homes are being cut out,’ Chapman said.”
“Real estate experts said sales in 2007 were good, just not as good as in record-breaking 2006. ‘Austin is not expanding at the rate it was a couple of years ago, but you haven’t fallen out,’ Gaines said. ‘07 is still a good year in the housing market, it’s just not as good as it was in ‘06. But 2003 to 2007 were all good years, I just think ‘06 will turn out to be a peak year.’”
“In general, Chapman said, he has seen the number of buyers decrease since August and the number of sellers increase. Still, he said, some sellers continue to want to overprice their homes, even in the declining market.”
The Dallas Morning News. “More than 5,300 homes in the four-county Dallas-Fort Worth area are set to be sold at next month’s foreclosure auctions, Addison-based Foreclosure Listing Service said Thursday. That’s a 31 percent increase in foreclosures from the same month in 2007.”
“February’s foreclosure total for D-FW was the highest ever for the month. And Dallas, Collin and Denton counties all set records for the largest number of postings in any month.”
“Almost 43,000 Dallas-Fort Worth area homes were posted for foreclosure in 2007 – an increase of 10 percent for the year.”
“Home foreclosure rates in the area have been some of the largest in the country in recent years due in large part to lax lending standards, analysts say. Many homeowners who took adjustable-rate loans a year or two ago couldn’t afford the monthly payments when the interest rates rise.”
“And, despite lots of publicity, government and mortgage industry relief plans have so far not had much impact.”
The Denton Record Chronicle. “Residential foreclosures posted for February’s auctions toppled records across North Texas, with Denton County surpassing 500 for the first time, according to foreclosure statistics.”
“Denton County residential foreclosure postings first topped the 400 mark in November, reflecting the expected increase in foreclosed homes, officials said.”
“‘If we’re seeing foreclosures up today, that’s probably reflecting a process that began years ago,’ said Dr. Bernard Weinstein, director of the Center for Economic Development at the University of North Texas.”
“‘It’s reflecting a lot of poorly collateralized lending in ‘04, ‘05 and ‘06 — particularly to low- and moderate-income households and single-adult households. We’re now seeing the result of that — not because the economy is heading south,’ Weinstein said. ‘North Texas is one of the strongest metropolitan areas economically in the country.’”
“With 566 homes set for auction next month, Denton County was not alone in the record-breaking foreclosure numbers, according to Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. Denton County records showed a 50 percent increase from last February, which had 377 residential foreclosure postings. The February numbers were 44 percent higher than January.”
“One reason cited for the substantial increase in February postings is due to the January auction sale falling on New Year’s Day, according to George Roddy Sr., president of Foreclosure Listing Service. By law, lenders in Texas are only allowed to take properties through foreclosure on the first Tuesday of each month.”
“‘This was kind of a shocker even though we knew there was an impact due to a lack of filings for the Jan. 1 auction,’ he said. ‘This actually caught us by surprise.’”
“Roddy figured about 15 percent of the increased postings in February were likely tied to the delayed postings. ‘The fact that we saw the astronomical increases all over the metroplex is an indicator that it is not just that factor,’ he said, adding that the March residential foreclosure listings will tell a clearer picture about what is happening in North Texas.”
“Projecting whether the record-breaking February numbers will continue in March is difficult, Roddy said, adding that even the 1980s numbers during the oil bust didn’t touch the current records. ‘If we see the same indicators, with a higher than the last 12-month average, then we’ve got something to really talk about,’ he said.”
“Home foreclosures in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have grown by one of the biggest amounts in the country in recent years due in large part to lax lending standards, analysts say. Weinstein cited data indicating that in 2006, the Dallas-Fort Worth market had an estimated $7.5 billion in subprime lending.”
“‘That’s an indication of how vulnerable we are,’ he said. The amount totaled an estimated 23 percent to 24 percent of all of the loan volume that year, he said.”
“‘It could get real nasty,’ he said. ‘Let’s just hope we muddle through, as we have in the past.’”
The Star Telegram. “The 43 unsold condos in the restored Neil P. at Burnett Park in downtown Fort Worth have been taken off the residential market and are now being pitched to the commercial market by a Dallas brokerage firm looking for a single buyer for the entire project.”
“The review comes as downtown condo sales appear to be slowing. Only 14 of the 57 units in the Neil P. were sold during a 22-month period, according to Tarrant County deed records. Prices at The Neil P. ranged from the $200,000s to the $700,000s, and the units ranged in size from 760 to 2,252 square feet. A penthouse unit was listed at $1 million.”
“The latest housing figures compiled by Downtown Fort Worth Inc. shows that…in the last three months of 2007, 18 units were sold, compared with 39 in 2006.”
“The proposed sale of the Neil P. project is not the result of poor sales or market conditions, said Rick Waggoner of M.C. Smith Interests. ‘I can’t say that [sales] didn’t meet expectations,’ Waggoner said. ‘We’re proud of what we built over there. We have all the confidence in the world in Fort Worth. It’s a matter of balancing our portfolio.’”
“Construction on the Neil P. began in 2005 and the first unit sold in November of that year. Nine units were sold between July and December of 2006, three in March, and the last one sold in September.”
“Not long after, residents were told that the building would be sold. It went on the market with Cushman & Wakefield’s Apartment Services division several weeks ago.”
“There are 18 completed condos and 25 that await finish-out. The 4,158-square-foot, 11th-floor penthouse is available as are a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom units. The lobby and amenities areas are completed.”
“‘In some ways we’re sad to sell,’ Waggoner said. ‘It was a nice product for Fort Worth, and it reflects on us well.’”
Ben, be sure you see the story I linked on the local markets thread about the condo tower in Oak Cliff that is being sold by its developer uncompleted because “they are busy with other projects.” Right. The real problem is they are suffering from an acute case of Clownifornius Interruptus.
‘ Developers of the historic Lake Cliff Tower in North Oak Cliff have decided to put most of the high-rise condo project up for sale. A partnership that converted the 12-story landmark into 54 luxury condominiums has hired a real estate broker to find a buyer for the block of unsold units in the building.’
‘It will appeal to a variety of investors, including the traditional condo converter that may be looking to pick up a property to finish out at a good price,’ Mr. Balthrope said.’
‘ The property sat vacant for some time before a development team including Evergreen Realty Partners and Precept Builders began redevelopment of the property over two years ago. To help the project, the city of Dallas agreed to commit more than $4 million in tax increment financing funds.’
‘Condos in the building have been selling for between $190,000 and $600,000. Evergreen managing partner Steve Everbach said the company is busy with other projects and decided to put the units up for sale. ‘When we started this project in 2004, we thought it would be a two- to three-year project,’ he said. ‘It will probably be another 12 to 18 months before we sell out. As you know, everything has slowed.’
See, this is typical for RE reporting in the metroplex. They completely fall on their face, even with a huge tax subsidy, and they are ‘busy with other projects. Even California media is more honest.
$600k condos in Oak Cliff?
I remember when that ridiculous project first started. My wife and I just looked at each other w/ the typical “are they out of their minds” look on our faces, and yet people want to keep saying how cheap it is in Dallas. The bottom line, when you get outside of the I635 loop, most places have had stagnant home prices for the last 20-30 years (except for the new McMansion developments that sprung up everywhere over the 3-4 years which were overpriced to begin with). The closer you get to downtown, the pricier this trash gets and the more prices have gone up since 2000. There is definitely a huge bubble in Dallas.
I agree that inside the loop, things have gotten overpriced, especially when you consider that jobs have steadily been moving north for the past decade. I’m always taken aback when I drive into Dallas and see all the condos that sprung up in the last few years. I hate to say it, but I’m glad I live in a more rural area. Some of these neighborhoods are going to be hit very hard by our national recession, though I still think DFW will fare better than many regions.
How about a North Texas HBB get-together? There seem to be quite a few of us in the Dallas area. I live about 75 miles Ne of Dallas on the weekends but in Allen (yes, I know, txchick would commit suicide rather than live there) during the week, to be near my job.
IMO, the reporting from Texas is pretty lame. Houston inventory is back up to 50k, with pending sales dropping double digits. And you can’t blame the weather.
Williamson, Hays and Bastrop counties aren’t the highest paying places, yet land and house prices have skyrocketed.
And this:
‘Projecting whether the record-breaking February numbers will continue in March is difficult, Roddy said, adding that even the 1980s numbers during the oil bust didn’t touch the current records.’
They used to say, ‘well we’re at record numbers, but we have a lot more houses now.’ Notice they’ve dropped that? These are disaster numbers, IMO.
And how does someone get away with this?
‘Nine units were sold between July and December of 2006, three in March, and the last one sold in September. Not long after, residents were told that the building would be sold. ‘It was a nice product for Fort Worth, and it reflects on us well.’
I think it’s a uniquely Texas mindset in the press and it’s worse in Dallas than Houston. Never admit that things are less than wonderful and if reality intrudes in the form of government reports that must be printed, be sure and put the usual “Dallas to decline less than other parts of the country - PMI Group” crap to make everyone feel better.
The PMI guesses are some of the worst in the country. These guys get paid for that?
I can’t understand why blowing out the 80’s bust numbers in foreclosures isn’t on the front page of every paper in the country. The DMN slept through the S&L thing too, and only woke up when it couldn’t be avoided anymore.
if you will drive out I-30 in east Dallas past the Rose Hill exit you can still see the condo foundations from the Danny Faulkner days of the 80’s. Go katty corner from Bass Pro by the lake and on the other side of the freeway look at the concrete foundations. And you think this is going to blow over in 2/3 years?
Texas RE reporting IS pretty lame. The front page of today’s RE section of the San Antonio Express News: “Stable Market, Texas taking a pass on foundering real estate game.” It starts “Real estate is a mess nationally. Perhaps you’ve heard. But in Texas, things look much tidier… The state warmed the bench while housing prices shot skyscraper high in states such as CA and FLA between 2000 and 2006. But now, missing out on playing time in the big real estate game seems like a major victory for Texas instead of a disappointment. Home prices are dropping in those states, but they’re rising here.” This is just the latest example of bad the reporting. Other recent topics in SA News Express have been riffs on “rich foreigners” are buying in this market and “it’s different here.” We’re newly moved to San Antonio and when I talk to the locals, they think everything’s great. Nothing to see here, move along…
Everyday I thank the Lord for being able to sell our TX house in May ‘06 and only having to take $20k to closing!! So many people we know who have moved to TX and lost their a@@es and their credit! I will never forget a radio commercial I heard in Dallas before we left saying that almost everyone who has lived in Dallas ends up with bad credit. I am so glad we got out with our 800+ credit score!!
That happens because there is absolutely NOTHING to do other than eat out, go to bars, movies and shop. Nothing. There is no beach, no mountains, no interesting topography and the “Dallas” (as in the old TV show) mindset is so pervasive. The consumer and show off ethic is so deep here that people will do anything, risk financial life and limb, to appear to be a player. Very very sick place. Very.
Is Texas still much of an oil producer, compared to the past?
RE: Is Texas still much of an oil producer, compared to the past?
Saw a lot of gas well drillin’ in and around Forth Worth on my last visit.
I guess the new local issue is whether your subdivision zoning will allow a well to be drilled in your backyard.
I guess there’s more than a few people gettin’ royalty checks.
60 Minutes did a segment on this awhile back.
Txchick can probably elaborate.
Texas oil production has declined steadily over the past 10 years but Houston has become home to the largest concentration of engineers and geologists supporting global petroleum projects. Almost every major and large independent oil company has a large percentage of the technical and management staff for the Exploration and Production units in Houston. Wages for these jobs have also gone up a lot in the past 2-3 years as oil prices have skyrocketed (there is a severe global shortage of experienced oil field professionals due to the severe layoffs of the 1980s the lack of any hiring in the 1990s). That won’t insulate the entire Houston housing market but there are pockets that are holding strong (West University, Bellaire) and will probably continue to do well until the next industry bust happens (I think it will eventually happen but difficult to say when).
I still get royalty checks from some property that I inherited a few years ago. The amount has gone up significantly, needless to say. Also, we’ve had a couple of corps. approach us about drilling on another property the family owns.
I have to say once again that I don’t know a single person who resembles txchick’s description. Maybe it was more true back in the Dallas era, before my time. There is plenty to do here besides shop, though I consider the large and diverse number of bars and restaurants a plus. You don’t need a beach or mountain to have fun. We’ve got lots of lakes, trails, outdoor and indoor climbing, great polo fields and horse trails, world class zoos and museums. I could go on but what’s the point? I think this person would be unhappy anywhere. That beach/mountain superiority complex contributed to the bubble mentality in so many places. “We’ve got a beach/mountain/bay/river/canal/hill, so everybody wants to move here!”
You left out ‘get cosmetic surgery and gossip endlessly about people we don’t know but wish we did.’
Those prices for that Oak Cliff Tower place are unreal. Lately, I have seen some really outragous SFR list prices, I suspect the sellers are likely investors who bought a year or two ago when Dallas was the next greatest place.
Try this one. I’ve emailed this guy a couple of times and told him to find some better pharmaceuticals.
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/544664360.html
Thank you! I always thought I was the only one who felt that way. It seemed like the only thing we could do when we lived there was shop or go to the movies.
Disagree. The metroplex has a full-time symphony and several part-time orchestras and symphonic bands. It also has a regional opera company. Plus there are other things to do as well (museums, zoo, pro and college sports, thoroughbred race track, art-house cinemas, University music and drama department productions, etc.). Of course you’re right about it being an ugly looking place with a geography as varied as that of western Kansas.
The most interesting cultural things are in Fort Worth, not Dallas. You can do everything that’s culturally significant in Dallas on one Saturday afternoon. Then, go have a very strong drink at Louie’s.
I can’t take this slam. I had a blast up in Dallas and Fort Worth when I was at UT.
Our outdoor activities were mostly outside Fort Worth and included riding, hunting, camping, and fishing. We played tennis and golf in Arlington and we partied our butts off in the West End in Dallas. I didn’t live in the area year round but those two or three day weekends in the DFW metroplex were intense.
I guess I got lucky and hung out with the right DFW crowd because we always had something going on when we headed up North on I-35 and it was always fun.
yeah, it helps to be inebriated while you’re here.
Right, one can always enjoy a place as long as spending money and drinking are involved, I guess. You have to stay a little longer than three days to get the feel for it, IMO.
I’m curious:
How does Dallas compare with Las Vegas?
birds of a feather?
Not at all. Dallas is more right-wing and more Christian. Sex is hidden in the closet where it belongs.
“How does Dallas compare with Las Vegas? birds of a feather?”
not really. although Dallas has its share of Christian whackos, there are plenty of openly gay areas and Dallas even had an openly gay guy run for mayor and his sexuality wasn’t an issue. Dallas also has the best strip clubs.
Also, in 42 local contested juducial races last Nov., 42 dem’s won. Dallas is home to more college degreed african american males than any other metro area in the country.
The stereotypes you mention are usually the ones cited by people who left Dallas or Texas and don’t realize places do change, sometimes glacially slow, but they change nonetheless.
I meant from a shallowness perspective:
shopping, drinking, big hair, appearance is everything, all on a desert steppe that is boundless…
as I said once before, Dallas is the OC without the beach, mountains or money.
In Vegas’s defense…
Just an hour’s drive east, is Valley of Fire state park.
I recommend a drive to Mouse’s Tank, and it’s about a 1/2 mile walk on reddish sand, to the Tank’.
Along the way, there are hundreds of 2,000-2,500 year old Anasazi petroglyphs on the walls.
The dominant petroglyph is the bighorn sheep, and the 1st time I visited the park, I saw 5 of them, live in person.
Some things never change…
‘desert steppe’?
No, almost all of Texas gets way too much rain to be classified as desert. From here in AZ I can tell you, that just a few inches more can make a world of difference in vegitation.
The Dallas area gets 28 inches a year, I think. Of course, half of that falls in one day!
RE:I can’t take this slam. I had a blast up in Dallas and Fort Worth when I was at UT.
Always had a great time when I’ve visited.
For somebody who easy access to the ocean and mts. here in New England, I find the topo and everything about the area (save for the rush hour traffic) pretty fascinating.
Guess it’s a perspective circumstance of taking your own backyard for granted.
. The consumer and show off ethic is so deep here that people will do anything, risk financial life and limb, to appear to be a player.
This is the culture and society we want (wanted?) to be. iPod culture. Buy one because it is good looking, more expensive, and cool. And any other MP3 player: ain’t cool.
I’m in my late 30’s: I’ve spent 5 of the past 7 years living in a RV with my wife full time. Was living in Seattle when I started, and lived in Dallas before that (1995). Spent a lot of time in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, California, Arizona, Texas and sometimes Florida and Utah. Telecommute so didn’t party just lived normal life… but went out a couple days a week (weekends) for dinner,movies,etc.
What you describe of Dallas could be observed in: Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta. Probably other places too. It is the fast life lifestyle and love of cars and bling. Houses are really just car accessories
And now cars are just iPod accessories.
There are some great people mixed in, but the mass society (mob) has all been about excess.
Las Vegas is really the most telling of it. Every place that opened local casinos in the past 8 years wanted to cash in on that. And Vegas had a sharp decline and house cleaning after 9/11 then took off like a rocket. Gambling went through the roof, real estate changes, endless new casinos.
The lotto and casinos are the ultimate way to show your bling and act stupid with your money. This touched all classes at one level or another.
What you describe of Dallas is how I would describe Phoenix: Vegas _without_ Casinos and gambling. Eating, drinking, movies, driving.
In Phoenix, however, you’re a 90 minute drive from Sedona and beyond. In Dallas if you drive 90 minutes, maybe you reach the state penitentiary in Huntsville.
Down goes Frazier!
And along the state highways, a sign for “church” every 5 miles. So you can get saved, ’cause if you live in those towns, you had better hope there is an afterlife better than this one.
The drive along I-20 toward Shreveport (casinos) is particularly amusing with many billboards telling you to find Jesus instead of the slot machines.
At least Las Vegas and Phoenix are surrounded by desert. Dallas is surrounded by NE Texas. Let’s just say that genology isn’t tough there.
For a person who has well over $1M in cash (and no kids?) - why do you stay there?!
You are so right, but despite this, there are so many nice people in Dallas. People I know and love. (And people I don’t know, who are smart and interesting, like you.) Why, oh why?!
“That happens because there is absolutely NOTHING to do other than eat out, go to bars, movies and shop. Nothing. There is no beach, no mountains, no interesting topography and the “Dallas” (as in the old TV show) mindset is so pervasive. The consumer and show off ethic is so deep here that people will do anything, risk financial life and limb, to appear to be a player. Very very sick place. Very.”
Well - all you people who are criticizing Dallas Fort Worth - ought to move to Oklahoma. Then you will learn what bad is.
I graduated from the largest high school in Oklahoma in 1984 - with 900 other graduates. When I got my 20 year reunion information - I was shocked to notice only 35 people were still in the state of Oklahoma - over 350 were in Dallas and another 200 were in the Houston and Austin area.
All this griping about places is really a bit out of control. I love it here in Dallas - yes the Republicans and Southern Baptists get a little on my last nerves - but at least there are local universities with open public lectures - and opera and symphony - and musicals - etc -
I find a place to live and make the best of it. I have lived in enough places in my life - Denver, Chicago, SF, LA and Portland to know there are bad things about places everywhere.
In August, we moved to the outter NW reaches of San Antonio, edging into the Hill Country. Previously we had lived in So Cal and San Diego, Rhode Island, South America and Miami. We really like it here in this area and have a lot to do each weekend. There’s a lot of outdoor recreation, historical sites, fun (and often charming) little towns like Bandera, Boerne, Fredericksburg, Gruene etc, Yeah, we know parts of SA itself can be pretty gritty in some areas. Physically, the land is beautiful with rolling hills, nice oaks and lots of creeks and rivers. We found first rate schools and some of the nicest people we’ve ever met. Really low key and down-to-earth. But there is a LOT of building going on. We notice it most along the I-10 west corridor. The Drury hotel is putting up a huge new building at the 1604 and the 10. Several more large hotels are grading. Lots of housing and new office buildings but we notice that lots of brand new office space is empty. I can’t believe there are enough small businesses to fill the existing spaces.
I hear you. I lived in Dallas for 3 years before transfering jobs to Houston. I hated weekends in Dallas. Nothing to do but consume. I always struggled when friends came to visit on what to do.
Inner loop Houston is not paradise but where I walk my mutts is much greener and friendlier.
SOMEBODY please send the City of Dallas a small pony via UPS to brighten their LIVES
The pink one is apparently in use in Seattle. Send them Teal.
I lived in Dallas 1979-1982 and the only real fun thing was going out to the big reserviors to swim or go crappie fishing at Cedar Creek. ‘Cept watch for the water moccasins in the water.
Besides that, you’re right on..that’s why I came back to Montana.
Oh, yeah, and drink..loved that W.L. Weller..
‘Let’s just hope we muddle through, as we have in the past.’”
I hope this is not going to be the new American way of handling things. That’s akin to how some of my kids chose to handle themselves in school.It didn’t work for them and it sure won’t work for housing.
Mine also….
My aunt, who lives in Lance Armstrong’s Austin ‘hood is selling her place.
My cousins want 1 million. I think it was built by my uncle in the 60’s.
It’s never been upgraded and it used to view Lake Travis.
Tiny rooms, crappy insulation, but major charm.
How much would prop. tax be on that one?
there’s no way they’ll get $1M. Your cousins are on crack. You can’t get that for a new house on Lake Travis right now unless it’s huge.
A modest but renovated 3/2 across the street (waterfront Lake Travis, FLOODS) is on the market for 1.6M. It sold for $600K last spring after the original owner died. Sure, it’s been renovated, but 1.6M = specuvestor smoking crack. Plus try to get it insured after next time it floods…
I grew up in the metroplex and remmeber the 1980’s bust well. My father bought a house in 1977 for 37000 in 1981 it was worth 100000 and in 1984 was worth about 50000. I bought the house from him in 1996 after many years of being a rental. I spent 20000 rehabing it and sold it in 2000 for 103000. It has been sold 3 times since then and is for sale currently for 95000.
Adjusted for inflation it is a total loss times 3. Thats why I laigh when people tell me realestate always goes up. If things continue as they are you will be able to buy this home for 50000 again very soon. Shame its a 4b2b2c 1800 sqft rancher in Bedford Texas nice neighborhood and good schools.
If you buy a toaster, they’ll throw in a bank.
(1980’s Texas banking joke)
But in the early 1980s the big Texas banks (Texas Commerce, First Houston) were considered the cream of the crop and their CDs had special status, trading “on the run” with the 8 or 9 big money center banks, meaning they were deliverable paper against most market makers’ bid-asks. By the mid 80s they, along with Continental Illinois, were toast, and there were also a slew of mergers in NYC banking.
Moral: The highest fliers always take the biggest falls.
‘I have a feeling I’m not going to get what I want to get.’”
Of course it’s all about what YOU want, not what a buyer wants to pay…
Right! And I vana toilet made out of solid gold, but it’s just not in the cards now is it?
600k for a condo in the Metroplex is insane. For that you can get a 5000sqft home in Collyville or Southlake with an acre of lot and a pool.
it’s worse than that. I’m looking to sell something in that vicinity and will happily take a price that starts with a “3″.
3 thousand and it’s a deal!
At that price you’ll have to feed the squirrels (feed them to what I’m not sure…)
Do you really want an acre lot in the Dallas area? The cost of maintaining a grass lawn is high (chinch bugs, fire ants, watering). Oh, and having to water the area around your foundation (yes, that’s right) on a regular basis adds to your costs.
A pool is very nice to have there, as you can use even an unheated pool about 8 months of the year. Only our spa, on a separate pump and filter, was heated. It was neat sitting out there in January, in a vapor cloud, getting frisky after the kids were in bed and asleep.
Good Morning Tx, ben, etc.
Yesterday I did something I have not done in a long, long time. I drove through downtown Dallas — specifically I came north up I-35 and then east to I-75 north, travelling just north of the downtown core to make astop before heading home to Rockwall.
OMFG! The Construction Cranes just north and west of the downtown core. Dozens of them, literally dozens in just a few square miles. This isn’t Miami, is it? This is 1984 redux.
You can now add me to the (downtown, oak lawn, etc) Dallas is gonna be toast crowd.
I noticed that recently too, several towers going up. Meanwhile downtown commercial vacancy rate is still fairly high if I recall correctly.
Can one buy a condo with a view of Daly Plaza?
Just wondering.
Yeah, if you’re willing to go up high enough in the building.
Yes - I was just in one the other day - An architect friend of mine - who is bigtime into “investing” in condos in Downtown Dallas had a party at one of his condos. It is a 2 level condo that is rather large - 3 bedroom - on the next to top floor of about a 15 story building. It looks out over what I would call a “Cock-eyed” view of Dealey Plaza. He has of course “been working” on it - and was peddling it too all his friends during the party. I almost gagged when he told me the asking price 875K WTF???!!!??? - this is a HIGH crime area and for that kind of cash in DFW you can get some much more comfortable and safe places to live. I cannot help but think that very soon there are going to be a lot of cheap condos in downtown Dallas - it is SOOOO overbuilt - and there are cranes all over the place even still.
This one is interesting to me from a train wreck in the making standard too. This same realtor was also trying to peddle the Oak Cliff condos with an open house every weekend, etc. I suspect this one won’t fare much better:
http://www.davidgriffin.com/Detail.aspx?ID=2665
The W building interests me much as watching a train wreck would also. A few months ago, the Morning Snooze ran a “story” (planted by the developer I’m sure) about some ditzy woman who “bought” one of those overpriced apartments because she likes the room service. That one set a new high water market for inanity. I think the W is going to be a spectacular bust, not that we’ll ever read about it except maybe in the Observer.
I forgot one other thing I hear time and time again. When you discuss the over-priced condo with your average Dallas citizen - trying to knock some sense into their head - this is the usual conversation:
Me: How can they be building all these 700K-900K condos and market them to 20 somethings. There are not that many people with that kind of money.
Response : You are wrong - you do not realize just HOW MUCH MONEY THERE IS IN DALLAS -
My thought - but as of yet not verbalized - THERE IS NOT MONEY IN DALLAS- there is A LOT OF DEBT IN DALLAS.
txchick is right about that - I have NEVER lived in a place where the bling is so conspicuous. I feel all alone at work - I am the only doctor around not in debt to his eyeballs.
I like it here - but I am afraid Dallas is toast for real estate for quite a while.
oh, there is lots of money in Dallas but it is concentrated in the hands of about 25 people. The rest are wannabes.
Look, I hear you on some of this and you’re right that there are a lot of people leveraged, but I have to say that I know for a fact there is a good chunck of people making quite a bit of money (and that have serious wealth) in this town. And while that’s a relative term and nothing keeps them from overspending, too, a lot of the “in the loop” prices can be sustained.
I’m a financially conservative guy who owns a house in Lakewood with a note less than my annual income, but literally everyone I know makes more money than me.
I’ve been a lurker and a believer here for a long time, but not everyone’s going to get crushed.
Austin will get hammered again just like 1999-2002. The bubbles have a nasty habt of settling in and causing huge explosions when they go pop. Fine for me though so I can move out of DC in 2-3 years and get a nice house on the golf course in Round Rock for half of today’s asking price. Corpus has hit the skids hard too but I will NEVER be moving back there.
Having owned in Austin during that period, it wasn’t anything close to be being hammered. Houses in my hood dropped 10-15% during that time. Of course by 2004, they had bounced back. 2005 and on, they appreciated again by that much.
There are a couple of factors that will help TX during this crash. House values somewhat reflect actual cost to build. There never was a run up in prices as seen on the coasts. The house values are not very high to begin with in terms of local incomes. Especially if you consider most households have two earners these days.
I moved to TX 10 years ago (from MA) just for that reason. The local payscales, yet lower than CA, are similar to what you get on the coasts and the housing costs are not any higher than those in the midwest.
All that being said, I find more friends/coworkers are worried. 2000-2002 wasn’t that long ago and they remember that correction. I expect we will see an increase in number of houses on the market in 2008. Building hasn’t slowed at all in Austin. There is only one way prices can go from here. Down. I expect house values will be back at 2002 levels by the end of 2008. The prices in 2002 were pretty reasonable.
I don’t know about 1999-2002, but in 1985-90, Austin dropped an average of 35-40%….25% in the best areas close-in…50% further out. Lots with utilities as much as 80% down.
I haven’t had much luck on the internet figuring out how forclosure or tax sales work for Comel county - anyone have some leads? I’m not jumping in, just learning.
Foreclosures are mostly listed on regular MLS.
Broad Listing Broker for HUD Foreclosures in the greater Houston Area
Over 99% of tax sales have taxes paid off on them for around 5% interest with the competition for them these days. You might get lucky on 1% of them but that’s a lot of time and effort chasing the big score which could just as well turn into a money pit rehabbing it.
This makes me sad. The Neil P. is a sensitive, high-quality renovation of an historic building in downtown Ft. Worth that has been through multiple owners. When the current group bought it, it was days away from being demolished. It looked great when my husband and toured it a few years ago (my mother was ill and I was spending half my time in Ft. Worth; we figured buying their smallest studio would be cheaper than hotels, and a great investment, to boot; ha!). Then my mother died and the point was moot.
“The 43 unsold condos in the restored Neil P. at Burnett Park in downtown Fort Worth have been taken off the residential market and are now being pitched to the commercial market by a Dallas brokerage firm looking for a single buyer for the entire project.”
That happens because there is absolutely NOTHING to do other than eat out, go to bars, movies and shop. Nothing. There is no beach, no mountains, no interesting topography and the “Dallas” (as in the old TV show) mindset is so pervasive. The consumer and show off ethic is so deep here that people will do anything, risk financial life and limb, to appear to be a player. Very very sick place. Very.
Pretty much true. The landscapes that do exist are all part of master planned communities in the big urban areas where you have your golfing, pools, running/bike trails, artificial lakes etc inside cul-de-sac neighborhoods of houses perfectly segregated by size and price.
Having followed my wife’s career to Texas from the Northwest 5 years ago I would pretty much agree that the major cities in Texas are lacking. A medium sized city like Portland has more to offer in many ways than the entire “metroplex”
That said, the one advantage Texas seems to have over pretty much every place else I’ve been is rural land. If what you want is to find your 50 acres out in the country someplace where you can have a few horses, maybe some woods and a stream and lots of space to mess around with while still being only an hour or two from a major metro area. Then Texas is pretty much it. Forget about doing that anywhere in the West or East coasts. 50 acres in northern Virginia or California would cost a fortune. Even in western Oregon land prices are astronomical compared to Texas. Sure you can buy even cheaper land in places like the Dakotas or Nebraska but the weather is harsher and you are a day’s drive from a metro area not an hour or two.
The reasons for this are pretty simple. First, Texas has almost no public land outside of the far western corner of the state. This is in contrast to western states like California, Oregon, and Nevada where large percentages of rural land are held by state and federal agencies like the BLM and Forest Service. Second, Texas has no major irrigation projects that provide agricultural water to large swaths of rural areas. So, unlike the Central California valleys or eastern Washington you don’t see major irrigated agriculture projects that drive up land values. Finally, Texas soils are relatively poor, clay-like and alkaline which makes them less suited for agriculture than places like California or Oregon.
All this means that decent rural land near cities can still be had for cheap in Texas and pretty much nowhere else in the US.
But if you don’t want your little piece of land in the country for your horses then I agree, there aren’t many redeeming qualities to Texas compared to other parts of the country.
Well said.
Problem is that any land in Texas that is even remotely interesting (water, hills, etc) is just expensive as similar coastal land. I’ve been here for 8 years, and find it to be pretty bleak, other than a few small oases. But for anyone who wants a few acres of scrub land, it’s quite the place. West Texas is beautiful, but kind of in an astronomical / “surface of Mars” kind of way.
Right, just look at what happened to the Hill Country and around Wimberley. It makes me sad just to drive through there, and it used to be really something. Housing/land bubble for sure, IMO.
Yep, the over-development really bothers my wife, who has been a lifelong resident of the area. The bubble is ruining (or has ruined) Hill Country. Still pockets of charm and authenticity, but quickly being overrun by McMansions. I can’t believe how many of those folks commute into Austin (or even SA!) every day on the massively inadequate roads Welcome to traffic hell.
Austin (or even SA!) every day on the massively inadequate roads Welcome to traffic hell.
In Texas fashion, they will add more roads as people bitch about it.
In Seattle they let them bitch. There was no way to add to i405 on the East Side, I loved it. Leave if you don’t like the traffic
Not here in Texas, they pave over anything and everything.
Actually I beg to differ.
I see lots of pretty land all around the area northwest of Waco that hasn’t remotely appreciated. There’s a lot of hilly country between the Bosque and Brazos Rivers with streams and trees. Places like China Spring, Valley Mills, Meridian. Glen Rose. This area is 1/2 hour or so from Waco and 1.5 hours south of Fort Worth.
I do agree, the hill country between San Antonio and Austin along 281 has gotten blasted. But that’s actually only a tiny portion of what’s out there.
Even so, land in the Hill Country in the heart of the bubble is still not even remotely close to the price of land on the coasts. If you think the Hill Country is expensive, try buying some acreage for horses in places like Marin County California or Loudoun County Virginia, two comparable country-esque type places on the coasts.
‘I see lots of pretty land all around the area northwest of Waco that hasn’t remotely appreciated. There’s a lot of hilly country between the Bosque and Brazos Rivers with streams and trees. Places like China Spring, Valley Mills, Meridian. Glen Rose. This area is 1/2 hour or so from Waco and 1.5 hours south of Fort Worth.’
I am very familiar with this area. I have always thought the real hill country started about there. It is just as nice as further south and much cheaper. A bit colder in winter.
But the housing bubble crept west from FW, too. Billionaires bought up Possum Kingdom, and one of the Walmart gals grabbed one of the nicest ranches and surrounds on the Brazos. Subdivisions around Weatherford with DFW prices.
IMO, that land is still vastly overpriced, and that’s because of the lack of economic support. Few jobs, and the resource value is low. Few people know that raw land in Texas went up 70% in three years, recently. And if land is much more than $1,000/acre where you describe, I say it’s gonna fall.
Yeah, I see 300-400k houses in Weatherford now. WTF???? I also like Possum Kingdom but that got grabbed and mansionized quickly. Also like Granbury and Glen Rose but there’s a nuke plant down there.
I don’t know possum kingdom but I sure don’t see many mcmansions further south.
The rub, as you point out, is that there isn’t much economic base and probably never will be once you get past easy commuting distance of DFW.
In any event, I didn’t mean to be trying to sell this area, only to note that the ONLY redeeming quality I’ve seen to living in Texas compared to other parts of the country is if your objective is getting some land to putt around on, raise hourses etc. Land prices may have gone up, and they may not be sustainable, but they still aren’t remotely in the same league as land prices in places like California.
“That said, the one advantage Texas seems to have over pretty much every place else I’ve been is rural land. If what you want is to find your 50 acres out in the country someplace where you can have a few horses, maybe some woods and a stream and lots of space to mess around with while still being only an hour or two from a major metro area. Then Texas is pretty much it.”
You obviously haven’t been to ground zero of the bubble. Once you get about 20 miles inland, Florida has a lot of cheap land. Getting cheaper. It is no accident that the 1-2 states in cattle and football are Texas and Florida.
my SIL bought last year in Portland tx- the builder opens new sections w the same model and changes the name then tacks on 15K
working so far
well, unlike other parts of the country, El Paso housing marketing is doing very well. We still have 4 percent of appreciation, after 12% and 13% in 2005 and 2006. Buy houses in El paso will make you rich, like I do.
Rich, huh. That’s why you are using the universities ISP? Have you declared a major yet? I suggest something in law enforcement.
BTW, here’s a FB that might not agree with you:
‘El Paso’s real estate market slowed down last year after an unusually hot 2006. New-home sales declined almost 11 percent and existing-home sales declined almost 14 percent, show data from First American CoreLogic, a California company that tracks home sales nationally.’
‘The Greater El Paso Association of Realtors, which tracks homes sold only through its Multiple Listing Service, shows existing-home sales declined 16.2 percent. Construction permits for single-family homes declined 5.1 percent within the El Paso city limits, and declined 39 percent in Horizon City, data from those cities show.’
‘Last week, more than 4,100 homes were on the El Paso market, compared with about 2,600 homes a year ago, El Paso Realtors Association data show.’
‘Dan Olivas, president of the Greater El Paso Association of Realtors and broker-owner of the Re/Max Elite real estate firm, said out-of-town investors, who helped pump up El Paso’s market in 2005 and 2006, pulled out last year, and that played a part in slowing down the market.’
‘The toughest sale in the 2007 market was in the $200,000-plus homes, which were hot sellers in 2006. realtor Ramona Russell said she’s seen more price reductions on $200,000-plus homes since November. Most of the reductions are around $5,000 to $10,000, she said. But she recently had sellers reduce the price on their West Side home from $249,500 to $203,500. That $46,000 decrease is an unusually drastic price cut, but they ‘just want to get the house sold,’ she said.’
‘Mountain Vista Builders made “substantial discounts” last weekend on homes ranging in price from $200,000 to $300,000 and sold 22 houses in 24 hours, reported Mike Santamaria, Mountain Vista vice president. Winton/Flair Homes plans to offer $40,000 discounts on 16 West Side houses ranging from $265,000 to $325,000 Jan. 27 to reduce its unsold inventory, said Harold Newsom, Winton/Flair sales manager.’
‘Winton/Flair sales declined 36 percent to 160 homes sold last year, Newsom reported. ‘Even though that was a big drop from 2006, the number of sales last year was a number ‘we would have killed for a couple of years ago’ Newsom said. ‘2006 was an aberration for everybody.’
‘Enrique Mata Jr., 29, bought a new $250,000 home on the West Side in January 2007, his first home purchase, because he saw it as a good time to buy with rising home values and low interest rates. He’s not sorry, he said, because it’s already increased in value. ‘I’m not selling it any time soon - not until things pick up,’ Mata said. ‘I’m thinking to sell it in a few years and upgrade to something else.’
“Buy houses in El paso will make you rich, like I do.”
If you’re using a university computer, then why can’t you compose a sentence in grammatically correct English? I suspect we’re hearing from the cleaning lady.
It’s hard to imagine a place more vulnerable to an economic slowdown than El Paso.
The view of Juarez driving on I10 is quite attractive as well.
while driving…too many Shiners…
Get rich investing in El Paso real estate?
Compound rate of price increase over the 20 years ending in September 2007–3.5%.
Wouldn’t even cover your morgtage interest if you’d borrowed from a rich uncle.
Source: OFHEO House Price index for El Paso SMSA,Q3-2007 data update.
Slammed by pretty much everyone. Obviously El Paso doesn’t realize there is only one TXchick.
Baseball player wants $1.8M flipping profit:
http://www.luxist.com/2008/01/20/teixeira-in-texas-estate-of-the-day/
Ben, how did this one get through? You watching the ball game?
I’ve been reading/lurking on this blog for a while now (~2yrs?) and I have to chime in. I’ve found and
check a number of blogs for realtors in Austin. I do this to see what their rose-colored glasses show
them and call them out for fun for time to time.
Sam Chapman is an interesting guy - typical realtor from what I can tell. He has 2 blogs:
http://austinrealestateguy.blogspot.com/
and http://www.austinrealestateguy.com/blogs/sam_chapman/default.aspx
He moderates comments, but I’ve never notice him censor anything - yet. Probably still hoping to convert
me to a client in the future. He covers the Lake Travis/Hudson Bend/Lakeway areas. From what I know,
these are the perfect area for trasplanted cali’s. This is the only place in Austin where Toll Brothers
builds - thank goodness. This area also has access problem to the rest of the city - but cali’s are ok
with that I suppose.
Another blog is for Dee Copland (http://texasrealestate.blogs.com/) in East Austin - one of the highest
flying areas due to outside speculation. She’ll blog about Houston stats before Austin - b/c Houston
makes #’s available first, but then won’t follow-up with Austin #’s when they are out. The hype of the
Mueller redevelopment has pop’d already - lots/homes are easily avaliable.
Neither of them (or a guy at work who’s wife is a realtor) will come clean and say prices have
sky-rocketed. Most new moderate homes (~2500sqft) in Cedar Park are now near $290k (should be near
$215kish). This is a pretty insane change that’s happened in the past 2-3yrs. I am sitting on the
upgrade sidelines for when things deflate and appreciation is back to