The Housing Bubble

The Independent Record reports from Montana. “Local real estate professionals say it’s a daily struggle to explain to buyers and sellers alike that the national downturn in housing hasn’t had a strong influence on the local market. By some measures the local housing market is indeed slowing; new home construction, in particular, slipped sharply last year around Helena. Fewer homes were sold in the Helena area last year than in 2006, and the ones that sold spent a little more time on the market, according to the Helena MLS.”

“Local brokers say a slowdown can be expected after a few years of double-digit price appreciation across the area.”

“‘We had a very strong year (in 2007) in spite of the fact that it was a step down from 2005 and 2006,’ said Mike Casey of the Trimac Group. ‘You can’t continue to grow (at those rates) and not take a breath. Real estate, like all markets, is a cycle. We’ve been in a high growth cycle and there’s still plenty of opportunity out there.’”

“‘Helena does not see the high highs, and we don’t see the low lows,’ said Drew Ahmann of Coldwell Banker Ahmann Brothers. Ahmann said one trend he sees is homes not being relisted.”

“‘When a listing expires, it goes off the market,’ he said. ‘It’s not coming back on with another real estate agent. We’re seeing a lot of sellers who, if they don’t have to sell, they’re not selling.’”

“The Helena MLS currently shows 737 homes for sale, including 557 in the greater Helena area. Some areas have more inventory than others — more than a third of the local listings are in the North Valley, East Valley and Central Valley regions.”

“Those three areas of the valley offer 190 listings. By comparison, the eight MLS areas that comprise most of the city of Helena have just 90 active listings among them.”

“‘If you want a brand new home in the North Valley or East Valley, between $300,000 and $400,000, you have some choices,’ Drew Ahmann said. ‘Other than that, not so much.’”

The Idaho Statesman. “The small West Ada city of Star is a concentrated microcosm of the Treasure Valley’s housing woes.”

“Star’s population since 2000 has more than doubled to 5,000 people, but the developers who came on like a fever a few years ago have slowed construction or stopped altogether, leaving a patchwork of new subdivisions suspended in various states of completion.”

“The boom and bust have left the city with unsold homes, half-built neighborhoods and even dangerous holes in the ground that developers abandoned without filling or covering.”

“Some people who bought homes they really couldn’t afford when home values were rising now are suffering. Ada and Canyon counties’ residential foreclosures for the month of November tripled from 2006 to 2007. New houses in Star sit empty for months on end.”

“On the south side of Idaho 44, development of the 574-home Heron River subdivision has slowed. Ten of 23 homes built have been sold, said Carlos Bendeck, Heron River’s assistant manager.”

“‘Much like every other community in the Valley, we had to reduce our prices anywhere between $30,000 to $55,000,’ Bendeck said via e-mail.”

“Meanwhile, the visual blight and safety issues at one northwest subdivision have outraged neighbors and city officials. ‘They made the neighborhood worse, not better,’ said Kristin Battey, who lives with her family in a 100-year-old fixer-upper farmhouse across from Orion Park. She laughs when she remembers how the developer told her: ‘We don’t build subdivisions. We build ‘communities.’”

“He tried to woo her with visions of tree canopies, walking pathways and equestrian trails. But that hasn’t happened. Now, Battey is angry that she’s left with a view of piles of dirt, rock and asphalt, as well as a minefield of uncovered manholes and stormwater vaults.”

“There are about 250 homes on the market in Star now, including 100 new homes that have never been occupied, according to the MLS. ‘A lot of what was built in 2005 and 2006 is still sitting there vacant,’ said Gary Smith, who lost his bid for City Council this past November by a single vote.”

“One of the themes of Smith’s campaign was ‘let’s finish what we started’ - meaning the city shouldn’t approve a slew of new subdivisions when so many new homes were going unsold.”

“Heidi Prigge, a real estate agent who lives in Star, said it is not just the quantity of homes in her city that’s the problem. It is also the quality. ‘When you build the same thing over and over and over again, nobody wants it,’ she said. ‘I think we’ve become Meridian. There’s so much supply, and there’s no demand.’”

“At this time last year, there were as many as 325 houses on the market, Smith said. He said investors bought homes in Star to ‘flip’ and make a quick profit.”

“Mayor Mitchell, a builder who got few jobs last year and said he had to tap his savings to feed his family says Star’s housing market is going through necessary price corrections and will rebound.”

“‘Where I see it most is in lot prices,’ he said. ‘There were 7,000 to 8,000 square-foot lots selling for $100,000. … Now, there are lots all over town at $50,000 to $70,000 that just aren’t selling. So your land basis is where a lot of correction is going on.’”

“Construction on infrastructure at Orion Park in northwest Star stopped so abruptly last year that no one covered open manholes or filled dirt around vaults in 10- to 12-foot deep holes at the site.”

“There’s not much the city can do about the piles of dirt, rocks and asphalt from a public road torn up to accommodate construction at the 379-home subdivision. ‘We were all up in arms when we saw the density. Now we’re dealing with an eyesore and hazard,’ said Brenda Weaver, who lives near Orion Park.”

“‘It seems disrespectful to leave prime agricultural land in a shambles,’ she said. ‘Why did they over-extend themselves?’”

The Lake Oswego Review from Oregon. “Feeling the pinch from the mortgage crisis and competition from other banks, the Lake Oswego branch of HomeStreet Bank will close March 28, after nine years of doing business.”

“West Coast Bancorp CEO Robert Sznewajs cited ‘dramatic slowing of the residential real estate market,’ which has led to defaults and damaged the Lake Oswego bank’s loan portfolio.”

“Floyd said HomeStreet ‘never became involved in the subprime lending’ market, which has hurt other lending institutions such as Washington Mutual and CitiBank.”

“‘We took a look at the subprime lending market and thought it might have been attractive in the short term,’ he said. ‘But we do our best to put people in the right kind of loan, that they can live with and pay off.’”

The Seattle Times from Washington. “The Kitsap County Consolidated Housing Authority, expects to see as many clients with mortgage problems this spring as it saw in all of 2007.”

“The housing slowdown is having a ripple effect that’s exacerbating the problem. On the Kitsap Peninsula, people who depend on the housing industry for work are seeing their hours cut, making it hard for them to meet their mortgage payments, reported housing counselor Marvelle Lahmeyer.”

“Additionally, the lack of home appreciation is preventing homeowners from building equity that could help them refinance out of problem mortgages, noted J. Lennox Scott, CEO and chairman of John L. Scott.”

“Ten of the 14 distressed homeowners Teresa Seeley tried to help last month will probably lose their homes to foreclosure anyway.”

“‘We don’t have enough follow-up because we don’t have enough time. We need more counselors,’ said Seeley, housing-counseling coordinator for Consumer Counseling Northwest in Pierce County.”

The Olympian from Washington. “Mortgage foreclosure notices rose nearly 52 percent in Thurston County last year, returning to levels they reached during the recession earlier in the decade, the county auditor’s records show. Notices of trustee sale rose 52 percent, from 435 in 2006 to 662 in 2007.”

“The easy mortgages of 2005 and 2006 allowed buyers to qualify at low introductory adjustable interest rates they knew would rise in a couple of years. In some cases, as rates have risen, the owners have been unable to keep up with payments, said Randy Luke, branch manager of Horizon Mortgage.”

“In addition, South Sound home sales have slowed as inventories have risen, making it harder for buyers to escape mortgages by selling their homes.”

“‘Either the value of their house wasn’t rising enough to allow them to refinance, or because of tightening credit, they couldn’t refinance,’ Luke said.”

“He said a perfect storm occurred that lenders did not anticipate: Rising home values leveled off and lenders made it harder to get a loan or in some cases went out of business.”

“Homeowners in trouble often can work out their problems if they address them early, as Paula Carey of Lacey learned. After renting for five years, Paula and her husband decided to buy a home before they were priced out of the market.”

“With no money for a down payment, the Careys qualified for a so-called ‘80/20′ mortgage, borrowing money for both the down payment and the cost of the home. Once they were approved for the loan, the Careys bought a three-bedroom, two-bath, 1,600-square-foot house in Lacey.”

“But she and her husband eventually separated, and Paula was unable to afford the mortgage on her secretary’s salary. Soon she began receiving letters from her lender that she was behind in her mortgage payments, but one letter also offered her the chance to modify her loan.”

“In the end, the lender forgave what she owed on the first mortgage and rolled it into a future payment, she said. On the second mortgage, an adjustable rate mortgage, the lender lowered the interest rate to 8 percent from 12 percent and converted it to a fixed rate for 30 years, Carey said.”

“Luke and other South Sound lenders predict this will be another year of high foreclosure activity before victims of the liberal lending practices of the past work out their problems. ‘We’re only halfway through the cycle of people who got subprime loans in 2006,’ Luke said.”

“Ron Hanson, president and co-owner of Madrona Mortgage in Olympia, and other lenders are optimistic the market will rebound with refinancing opportunities as interest rates fall. Thurston County prices, though they have risen, remain lower than in King and Pierce counties, the lenders say.”

“The state economy must remain healthy, with continued low unemployment and job growth, to help correct the foreclosure problem, Hanson said.”

“‘The next two years could be rough unless a lot of new people move into the market,’ he said.”