January 25, 2008

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 25, 2008

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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338 Comments »

Comment by wmbz
Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 06:14:20

The Mogambo Guru!!

Dang, haven’t read his articles in a few weeks.

Warning: avert eyes if tipping liquid to face!

Smiles,
Leigh

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 06:42:35

Leigh, Lovely lass.

How can I get in touch with you? This sad Cheddarhead would like to offer his most humble apology! You win on this most important wager.

Hoz

Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 06:53:51

Hoz baaaaaaaaaaby!

barbluvsong@yahoo.com

It was a silly bet on my part, because I believe some form of a slower leak may have become of the SIV fund (MLEC-whatever).

I’m not the fastest with my e-mail, but I promise to get one back to ya!

Best,
Leigh

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-01-25 07:53:49

Get a room!

 
Comment by talon
2008-01-25 07:58:53

You may be slower with your email now that you’ve posted your address on a public blog.

 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 12:50:16

LOL…it’s my junk one ;)

 
 
 
 
Comment by salinasron
2008-01-25 08:55:32

” who then look out of the windows of their fancy offices and notice there are buzzards circling overhead, and they know right then that they are just dead meat walking.”

LOL. Thanks for the view!! This piece made my morning, almost spilled me coffee on the desktop. It sort of begs the question, ‘Why should we be the ones tiptoeing through the tulips?’.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:21:39

Ode to Tiny Tim…

Tiptoe through the houses
By the blog window, that is where I’ll be
Come tiptoe through the tulips with me

Oh, tiptoe from the garden
By the garden of the FB’s
And tiptoe through the tulips with me

Knee deep in debt they’ll stray
They’ll try and keep the sheriff away
And if they miss a payment, in the moonlight
Will you laugh with me?
And tiptoe through the tulips with me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skU-jBFzXl0&feature=related

Comment by nancy
2008-01-25 21:34:39

that was great! Tiptoe past the granite counter tops and tiptoe past the overdue mortgage payment. The tulips are in bloom so it’s all good!

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Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-01-25 10:08:45

I love this bit about his reaction to the vultures circling around the(soon to be?) carcass of Merrill Lynch:

“And I exhibit not only a lot of laughing revelry and scorn sprinkled liberally with cursing, but an episode of Vicious Mogambo Schadenfreude (VMS), usually concludes with some gut-wrenching coughing and trying to catch my breath, some more cursing, and a lot of rude gestures as a final, gratuitous dollop of deserved disdain and disrespect.”

Nice.

 
 
Comment by Jingle
2008-01-25 06:03:46

I thought the new law allowing FB’s to escape taxable income gains on foregiving debt might slow the foreclosure market. I just reviewed the latest NOD, NOT & REO filings for Sacramento. It is still a rising swell poised off-shore, ready to hit the beaches. Wow. Overwhelming. I think anything congress does now will be too late!

NBC had a short blurb on the Modesto housing market, which said 73% of all homeowners in Modesto had mortgages in excess of market value. How can that be possible?

I bought a house in November from the Bank of NY and thought I got a screaming deal at $124/sf at $389,000. Now the identical model was listed at $330,000 down the street ($107/sf). I put in an offer, as the price makes sense as a rental and a friend wants to rent it from me. Get this: The agent received 23 offers….it went under contract today at substantially over the asking price! You might think US Bank would be happy, except their mortgage totalled $645,000! With foreclosure and selling costs, they will be lucky to recover 50% of their loan amount.

It is such a goofy market. A real personality split….lousing real estate goes begging, but the attractive stuff, priced right is flying off the shelves.

“It’s the price, stupid.” And nothing Congress does is going to change the fact that many, many people paid 200% to 300% over the intrinsic value of the houses they purchased. They are continuing to walk away. The real question is in regard to the snowball rolling downhill: How big will it get before reaching the valley floor. Momentum and gravity are very powerful forces.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-01-25 06:25:04

(A real personality split….lousing real estate goes begging, but the attractive stuff, priced right is flying off the shelves.)

In places with real economies but housing bubble prices, there is probably a lot of pent up demand waiting for affordable prices. But only enough for quality properties.

You see it here. At first, attractive properties in desirable neighborhoods became unaffordable, even for the affluent. So the non-affluent couldn’t buy, and the affluent settled for less attractive properties in less established neighborhoods. Then it got so expensive that only hedge fund buyers could buy.

In the mid-1990s, after years of stagnation, there were a lot of sales in my neighborhood. Who bought? Cops, teachers, firefighters, civil servants, non-profit employees. People with provable incomes who had been priced out.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 07:55:01

In places with real economies but housing bubble prices, there is probably a lot of pent up demand waiting for affordable prices. But only enough for quality properties.

That’s definitely the case in Chicago as well, where stable, middle-class families were rapidly priced out of the classic brick bungalows and two-flats that cover the city, except in marginal or up-and-coming neighborhoods. There are thousands of people either renting or stuck in condos because of the affordability factor. Long-term market watchers in any particular neighborhood probably have their eyes on certain properties, biding time.

Comment by Joe Schmoe
2008-01-25 10:16:38

I have always whether there is a real market for these places. I, too, love those Chicago bungalows, but I would never dream of buying one. Why? I have kids, and I don’t want to send them to the Chicago public schools. The private schools in the bungalow areas are an improvement, but we aren’t talking about Sidwell Friends here. Your Catholic schools in places like Jefferson Park are not dangerous, but they provide an education that is roughly equivalent to what a kid would receive in a mediocre suburban district like Des Planes.

And while the bungalows in Jefferson Park are nice, it’s hardly an idyllic suburban setting — you’re still in a very urban area. When my kids are 10 I won’t want them riding their bikes down to the park or playing hide-and-seek in the backyards a couple of blocks away.

For all of these reasons, I just don’t see much of a market for the Chicago bungalows. Not to families, anyway. They are lovely houses, with old-school craftsmanship that suburban tract homes can’t possibly touch, but what middle-class families will actually buy them? If you have kids the suburbs are still — like it or not — the place to be. They may be souless, but they are safe and the schools are much, much better.

For these reasons, I think Chicago’s gentrification prospects are limited.

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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 10:44:59

Good observation.

I have no children, so it’s not something that I’ve personally had to factor in. But I have many friends with young children, and it’s always interesting to see what decisions they make once the kids are nearing their school years — seems like that’s crunch time in the decision-making process.

I’ve had friends A.) move to the kind-of or older suburbs (Jeff Park, Oak Park, Evanston); B.) move to the suburbs; C.) pull strings to get the kids into an elite or well-regarded public school; D.) put the kids in private school; E.) keep the kids in the local public school, and augment with home-schooling; F.) home-school (eventually moved away).

I know several parents who have bungalows or graystones within the city, and the ones that stay seem OK with their schooling choices (but ever-vigilant). Many of my friends are involved in education or have connections in education, so they seem pretty adept at working the system.

I’m not sure what I’d do in the same circumstances, but I’d probably choose B.) … or moving to a college town.

 
Comment by Joe Schmoe
2008-01-25 11:40:16

Could not agree more. For much the same reason, I think those 2BR condos on the north side and in the South Loop are also headed for huge declines. Why? Like the Chicago bungalows, they are magnificent units full of old-world craftsmanship. The prewar buildings have rock-solid brick construction, lovely hardwood floors, and were designed with a layout that emphasizes comfort and livability instead of “hipness” and fleeting “style.”

But the single 30-something yuppies buying those things are going to have kids eventually, and when they do they will find that their $300k Lincoln Park condos are not suitable for children. That would not be a problem if they could simply sell them to a single 20-something yuppie, but so many of these units have come on line in the last 5-7 years that the supply far exceeds the demand. A lot of people will be stuck in their $300k condos for years.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-25 11:48:05

“I think Chicago’s gentrification prospects are limited.”

Please call the good folks at “@Properties” and explain your argument to them, because if raising kids in the bungalow belt is a bad idea - then raising kids in condos is a really bad idea!

Having grown up in the Bungalow Belt in the 70s I will concur that they have lost some of their appeal for families. Still, quite a few try - enough to surprise me at least. We will see what happens, but ultimately I stand by the opinion that once the condo dwellers want kids they will leave the city altogether and those who would take their place will not have the income to sustain current prices.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 12:09:34

I’m not sure what I’d do in the same circumstances, but I’d probably choose B.) … or moving to a college town.

Ooops, I meant I’d choose moving to Oak Park or Evanston (I lived in Oak Park for about two years) or moving to a college town (Bloomington, IN, or Madison, WI, specifically).

I’m sure my friends aren’t representative of the Chicago baby-makin’ population as a whole, either. I’d bet that both of you are correct — the majority of young parents probably light out for the suburbs once education becomes a priority.

 
 
 
 
Comment by david cee
2008-01-25 07:03:32

No more Foreclosures in Ohio
During the month of January 2008, there has actually been only ONE (1) new Ohio Federal foreclosure case filed through January 24, 2008!
As a consequence of the recent insistence of Ohio Federal Courts that plaintiffs demonstrate their actual standing, foreclosure filings in Federal courts in Ohio have virtually DRIED UP. The first BOYKO dismissals came down on October 10, 2007. But these dismissals received little attention. It was the second group of dismissals by Judge Christopher BOYKO on October 31, 2007, that made the national news.

Judges Kathleen M. O’MALLEY and Thomas M. ROSE followed with additional bulk dismissals on November 14 and 15, 2007.

daily foreclosure filings were at least several per day, with gaps reflecting weekends and federal Holidays. Ten or more foreclosures per business day were not uncommon, with counts as high as seventeen or eighteen filings in a single day. The average count throughout the year 2007 was about 6.9 new foreclosure filings daily.

The second week of November 2007 — the week BEFORE Judge Kathleen O’MALLEY’s dismissals — 57 new foreclosures were filed. The week of the O’MALLEY and ROSE dismissals, the number of new foreclosure filings fell to eight (8). AFTER the ROSE dismissals, the number of filings for teh remainder of November totaled only FOUR (4). There were only SEVEN (7) new foreclosure filings during the entire month of December (to date). In the post ROSE environment there were only two days when two new foreclosure actions were filed (Nov 16 and Dec 10). Most days saw ZERO filings.

Closer scrutiny, however, reveals that only the FIRST of these cases, United States Of America v. King, is actually a NEW case. The other six are simply reappearances of OLDER cases. This is actually readily apparent from an inspecion of the CASE NUMBERS which have the original filing year embedded therein.

Comment by auger-inn
2008-01-25 07:35:43

Free houses to everyone who had their loan securitized!!! Yeah! This ought to give a boost to the banking/CDO community! Hey bankers, we are keeping your collateral, how do you like them eggs?

 
Comment by Graspeer
2008-01-25 08:06:51

I guess those “complex financial instruments” that Greenspan so loved weren’t so great since nobody bothered to get the laws in place to explain exactly what they meant.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 15:05:28

“You can’t teach the old maestro a new tune.”

Jack Kerouac

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Comment by Zhang Fei
2008-01-25 13:24:44

O’Malley (Clinton appointee) and Rose (Bush II appointee) are about to preside over a collapse in Ohio real estate values, as lenders decide that it is uneconomic to extend mortgage loans to people based on collateral they can’t actually touch in the event of default.

 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2008-01-25 08:02:09

“I thought the new law allowing FB’s to escape taxable income gains on foregiving debt might slow the foreclosure market.”

How in the world did you think this would slow foreclosures? You’ve got a bill that says go ahead and walk and we’ll look the other way. Not only that, but go ahead and keep all those assets you obtained with MEW. Thats right, screw the lender. Freebies for everyone! I personally know two different families that changed their minds about “gutting it out” when they heard about this bill. Why suffer when the govt says screw it?

Comment by salinasron
2008-01-25 09:02:01

“escape taxable income gains on foregiving debt might slow the foreclosure market.”

CA gov said that Washington may forgive but not the state of CA. Gotta watch your six if before you jump in this market!

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:06:12

Mark to Modesto

“NBC had a short blurb on the Modesto housing market, which said 73% of all homeowners in Modesto had mortgages in excess of market value. How can that be possible?”

 
Comment by Seattle Renter
2008-01-25 11:17:54

Hey Jingle,

Where do you go to get info on NODs, REOs, etc?

 
 
Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 06:04:11

http://milwaukee.craigslist.org/rfs/550970414.html

Too funny…so stupid.

Warning–avert eyes if tipping liquid to face!

Ya just can’t make this stuff up!
Leigh

Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-25 06:07:23

“Fairly priced” = I want to get back what I paid for it 2 years ago.

 
Comment by Flatlander
2008-01-25 10:15:43

Here you go Leigh, put your writing skills to work and win a house!

http://fortcollins.craigslist.org/rfs/550802893.html

Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 13:00:00

LOL! Fort Collins…er…no thanks ;)

 
 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-01-25 06:04:36

I wonder what the British economic stimulus program will look like?

In November this year 43,944 people got the go ahead to buy their new homes. The next month that number fell to 42,088. This might not look like much of a fall month on month but compare it to December 2006 and you will see the problem: it represents a fall of 37.8%.

http://tinyurl.com/347qjo

Comment by Laurel, md
2008-01-25 07:11:57

The wifes father recently passed away, she went back to the UK to put mother in nursing home and to sell their home. The house is in South Wales, former coal and steel area but lovely setting…think rural Pittsburg area. It finally closed. at $2 to pound:
Gross sale price………………….$450,000
minus energy survey rip off - 700
minus 1% RE commission - 4,500
minus 17% VAT on Re commiss - 765
minus attorney - 2,000
minus misc fees - 1,000
NET Sales Price ………… $441,000

House had been in family for 100 years. Half of a duflex, at most 1000sf, single person kitchen. House had been taken care of but needs to be gutted, very nice garden with separate single garage that is falling down.

Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 07:41:42

seems to me prices in UK can decline at least 80% before they are back to realistic levels, just like in the Netherlands…

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 14:20:26

If he’d owned a house in Cleveland for the same amount of time, you could expect to receive 86 Cents. (after commissions)

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 01:53:23

Sorry to hear about your father-in-law’s passing. Also, hope the nursing homes in the UK are better than ours in the US.

BTW, that net is actually very good. In the US, you’d be looking at netting around $420K.

 
 
Comment by Jim
2008-01-25 08:01:05

Free fish ‘n’ chips and some subsidized dental work.

 
 
Comment by brandon
2008-01-25 06:05:24

http://www.ktvb.com/news/localnews/stories/ktvbn-jan2408-real_estate.53556bc1.html

And the Classic headline: Boise home sales drop 33%, realtor optimistic

Another PR puff piece posing as news brought to us by RE agents. The reporter probably didn’t even change the words when it came off the fax. Today, our newspaper does have a good story about mortgage fraud with a lawsuit- California couple got screwed.

Comment by Tango in Uniform
2008-01-25 09:47:07

Nice, brandon; The “just back to a normal market” line. We’ve heard that before. Any meaningful price drops in Boise yet? Sales drops are the start.

We haven’t seen mean sales drops yet here in Billings, except maybe the last couple of months.

Here’s one of the best pieces of “it’s different here” denial I’ve seen lately, in the Billings Gazette:

Big box retailers such as Cabela’s, Kohl’s Department Store and Sportsman’s Warehouse and businesses like GE Commercial Finance are expected to create hundreds of jobs in Billings, likely drawing new residents into the community, their boosters say.

“At a minimum, there’s 2,000 new jobs,” said Ron Elkin of NAI Business Properties. “Billings won’t be impacted in any meaningful way if the national economy goes into recession.”

We are totally immune to economic problems here! Amazing! So far all of the online commenters to this story have seen right through it.

Comment by Tango in Uniform
2008-01-25 10:12:49

Meanwhile:

Citi closing Great Falls (MT) mortgage office

60 jobs lost due to the national housing recession. These two previously mentioned articles are in the same edition! Incredible.

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 06:11:14

Someone forgot to tell this dude that DFW foreclosures are at an all time high

http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/550823944.html

Comment by brandon
2008-01-25 06:22:50

“Buyer’s Rates are under 6% for good credit clients”

How many people in the metroplex have good credit? Ten, maybe twelve people?

 
Comment by Gatorfan
2008-01-25 07:03:01

Unfortuantely, it’s already removed.

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 07:40:15

Buyers Learn How You Can Qualify for Down Payment Assistance!

——————————————————————————–
Reply to: see below
Date: 2008-01-24, 11:42PM CST

Think the real estate market is bad? Think again! All real estate is local! Just because California and Florida are not doing so well does not mean that Dallas is hurting as well. Dallas actually is doing just fine! Our job Economy is strong and our home prices did not sky rocket like California or Florida. If you are thinking of buying or selling a home let the Good Team help you get where you need to get going!

Buyer’s Rates are under 6% for good credit clients and I have a loan officer who can help you improve your credit if needed. The Good Team is a one stop shop for your real estate needs!

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2008-01-25 07:56:58

Txchick You gotta cut/past CL ads… too many of the really good ones, get flagged lately.

 
Comment by hd74man
2008-01-25 15:33:58

Here’s your future buyer’s-makin’ half of what their father’s earned…Adios McMansions.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hB9STX_f9HCtbKJIPsyGUxx6K5fgD8UCA5D80

 
 
Comment by Thor
2008-01-25 06:14:20

“But even Minnesota bears like investor and market historian Steve Leuthold expect we’re in a mild recession and that stocks will begin to recover by midyear.

So I think it’s safe to say that we’re not suffering through the next Great Depression.”

http://www.startribune.com/lifestyle/yourmoney/14263786.html

Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-25 06:22:21

Yeah, and it is all contained to sub-prime… no signs it is spreading to the wider economy.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:19:44

The tone of that is funny - it’s like: “OK, boys and girls, now we’re going to experience something you haver never seen before. Your first economic downturn! Unfortunately, lower interest rates penalize savers. Money hunkered down in savings accounts and certificates of deposit will earn less in interest. But don’t let that stop you from saving. A stash of cash is a consumer’s best line of defense in uncertain financial times.”

You do have a savings account, right?

Right?

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
Comment by WT Economist
2008-01-25 06:26:49

Nick Leeson lives! There really is a pathological personality type that manages to do this type of thing. Sometimes I wonder if the heroes of finance are the same type, except their reckless bets paid off!

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:34:30

Interesting thought. If your first few high-risk trading schemes pan out, you could end up as CEO of an investment bank before a black swan drops a guano bomb on you career.

 
Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 06:35:08

there also are the pathological personality types that manage these traders …

I don’t understand why they let the guy simply walk out and disappear, after causing 7 billion in damages. Some suggestions in the news today that the damage is even bigger and that part of the money is hidden.

 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 08:07:20

From the linked article:

Société Générale Chairman Daniel Bouton declined to provide details about the positions the trader built up over the past months. But he warned: “Had we not acted swiftly, the loss could have been 10 times worse.” The bank said it would dismiss several of Mr. Kerviel’s supervisors.

I don’t understand how these guys can skim or lose so much with triggering some sort of mechanism sooner. I understand that losses can multiply quickly or even exponentially, and that the guy had some knowledge of the bank’s security protocols (how much isn’t clear).

But c’mon, billions of dollars missing?

Comment by bluto
2008-01-25 08:41:09

He hacked into the records systems (because he’d previously worked on them) and put in offsetting trades so there was no exposure. He only lost EUR 2 billion, the bank paniced and sold (enough to drop the whole market) which cost them another EUR 3 billion.

They caught him when they inquired about some fake margin loans that the counterparty did not know about.

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Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 09:00:59

I get the bare facts as they’ve been explained, and the offsetting trades explain some of the delay.

Maybe my question should be: Is it acceptable that a major international financial institution didn’t catch this sooner?

Of course as I type that, I think of Moody’s, S&P, Bank of America, Citigroup, Bear Stearns and all the other institutions that’ve reported write-downs and systemic failures in oversight.

In Société Générale’s case, maybe it just seems more dramatic because one mook created so much havoc by himself.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:31:17

Computers, can’t live them, can’t live without them…

“Part of the inhumanity of the computer is that, once it is competently programmed and working smoothly, it is completely honest.”

Isaac Asimov

 
 
 
 
Comment by Little Al
2008-01-25 06:52:40

“Mr. Kerviel had cost the bank €4.9 billion, equal to $7.2 billion, by making huge unauthorized trades that he hid for months by hacking into computers.”

This guy is a smalltime player that took a fall for the team for some undisclosed later payoff. They’re getting the microscope off the bank’s foolish moves by blaming this patsy.

Comment by talon
2008-01-25 08:09:48

And what kind of bank is it that has checks and balances so poor that one guy can blow through $7B? I buy a $10 widget at Frys Electronics with my corporate CC and a week later our AP clerk is in my office with smoke coming out of her ears looking for the receipt.

Comment by WT Economist
2008-01-25 09:43:28

Heck, when I worked for NYC, I didn’t even bother putting in for my $10 worth of expenses because I would have had to do $150 worth of paperwork!

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Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 08:14:52

“This guy is a smalltime player that took a fall for the team for some undisclosed later payoff. They’re getting the microscope off the bank’s foolish moves by blaming this patsy.”

Bingo. There is no way a small time guy could lose that volume and nobody in compliance, accounting or even the prop trading desk fails to notice. Fall guy du jour, and yeah, let’s hope he’s in line for a decent payoff.
So Societe Generale is even more badly run than Bear Stearns. Who’d a thunk it.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:39:57

Coup d’fraud

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Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 13:08:16

Fascinating!

Jerome Kerviel

If we knew what his middle name was, Maybe Francis

Then we would have another

JFK conspiracy..

Weekend humor

 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 13:48:11

I believe in the loan fraudman theory…

 
 
Comment by MEaston
2008-01-25 09:43:28

I wonder if the bank has insurance against fraud.
ie call the gambling losses fraud and insurance will cover the bill???

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Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 12:34:58

maybe they had insurance with ACA as counterparty ;-)

 
Comment by Anonymous Coward
2008-01-26 10:01:36

Insurance for fraudulent trading losses at banks is not available. Most financial institutions have FI Bonds. Banks, for instance, have what is called a Form 14. Form 14’s cover against employee theft, but the ensuring agreement excludes trading losses by excluding losses where the employee had no intent to create both a financial benefit for himself and financial detriment to the bank.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 06:18:53

Fed Up With Bernanke

(the author doesn’t like BB being bossed around by futures traders but this craziness was a money making opportunity the likes of which I havent’ seen since 1999-2000)

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:22:18

Criticism of Rate Cut Mounts
By Greg Ip
Word Count: 750

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a perception problem: It looks like he is too ready to respond to a falling stock market.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120120095796214019.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Comment by P'cola Popper
2008-01-25 07:13:25

The Bernanke conundrum: damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 08:09:48

I wonder if he regrets taking this job yet?

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Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 02:17:00

I think he knew what he was getting into. My guess is he volunteered to be the fall guy, as the consequences of the credit bubble were obvious (to us, so I HAVE to believe the PTB knew — they just can’t admit it) when Bush took him on as a WH economic advisor.

They knew his “specialty” was the Great Depression, and I think this is — and was — all part of the plan.

Not sure what his payout will be. I do feel sorry for him, though.

 
 
 
 
Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 06:31:42

stupid article, totally ignores all the harm that is caused in the real economy by these actions. It promotes the idea that the FED is only there to provide an eternal free put for the stock/housing speculators, and that inflation and other bad results of these desperate policies are irrelevant.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:19:29

Are you all set to be jolted? Spend your tax credits like there is no tomorrow, and refinance your alligator while you are at it…

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120118687430813489.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 06:23:42

I just realized. We don’t get anything! Made too much last year. How funny.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-25 06:34:39

Note, however, that they are rewarding the dutiful expansion of the labor pool.

 
Comment by auger-inn
2008-01-25 06:53:15

I’m still a bit surprised that the limit is 174K. Will this be a datum to be used when the democrats start writing new tax increase bills next year? I doubt it, I suspect anyone making 6 figures will be “rich” under any new tax bills, just a guess.
Disclaimer: Both parties suck, pls no flames over the use of the word “democrat”.

Comment by david cee
2008-01-25 07:25:15

“Both parties suck, pls no flames over the use of the word “democrat”

And who said “Mission Accomplished”

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Comment by auger-inn
2008-01-25 08:03:26

Are you reading impaired? “both parties suck”

 
Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 08:18:52

no flames over the use of the word “democrat”.

OK. Then let’s put the flames under ‘em, and tie the repubs to the stake as well. Then let’s have ourselves a little Bonfire of the Thieves.

 
Comment by rms
2008-01-25 08:31:25

“Are you reading impaired? “both parties suck”"

Both parties are fully funded —ish shills.

 
 
Comment by CasaTostada
2008-01-25 11:05:01

Both parties suck.

True, but nonetheless something all too often used as a copout for sheeple to ignore reality.

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Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:30:26

I think the reason that we saw this burst of “instant bipartisanship” was the Demopubs and the Republicrats saw a threat that a third party candidate could get some traction in the presidential race.

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Comment by Mary Lee
2008-01-26 02:16:58

Funniest thing around here (southern Oregon) is the only presidential political signs around are for Ron Paul….. on cars, home-made yard signs, business cards tucked into car windows…. I love it

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 02:31:29

You could very well be right, sm-landlord.

 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-01-25 07:00:15

Couples with income of more than $174,000 would get nothing, unless they have children.

Now doesn’t this make you want children ;-) ? (kidding, or course)

Comment by Dan
2008-01-25 09:48:37

I’m expecting my first in June. I assume it’s based on my current filing status, right?

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Comment by eastcoaster
2008-01-25 06:58:20

“I can’t say that I’m totally pleased with the package, but I do know that it will help stimulate the economy,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Not if there are a lot of people like me out there. Mine will go right to savings.

Comment by HBBLURKER
2008-01-25 07:30:49

Yea really, mine will be going into savings, and I suspect most resposible poeple will do the same, the irrisponsible have already spent this money and will use it to finance debt,

Comment by NoSingleOne
2008-01-25 07:47:20

This rebate is a joke. This helicopter ‘drop’ is merely a drop in the bucket as far as the average consumer debt load is concerned. I suspect this is a compromise issue to placate Democrats while Republicans sneak in a subtle bailout to Wall Street and the financial sector.

The worst thing that could have happened to this country is for the recession to hit full force in an election year. The politicos are merely pandering for votes, mortgaging their lame vote-buying schemes with the future economic health of this country.

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Comment by hd74man
2008-01-25 12:07:17

RE: The worst thing that could have happened to this country is for the recession to hit full force in an election year

Hillary’s in…you can pack up the plantation now.

 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-01-25 09:01:51

i know 2 people that received $5k back on tax returns this month (both have two children) and the money was spent within a week on bills / junk. i wonder if everyone who has 2 kids gets the 5k return? if so we may see profits rise on certin companies that pander to the poor! and they have more money on the way!

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Comment by Northeastener
2008-01-25 10:48:11

i know 2 people that received $5k back on tax returns this month (both have two children)

We have two children and last year we received almost $9k in tax returns. I expect it to be higher this year, as we have more deductions and depreciation on our multi than last year and our son was born the middle of 2006 (couldn’t claim him for the full year).

BTW, this is a constant source of conflict with my wife and I, as she likes having a big rebate check from the government and I can’t stand giving the government a free loan with my money. Such is marriage…

 
Comment by cactus
2008-01-25 11:08:03

if everyone who has 2 kids gets the 5k return?

Depends on how you set up the W4 and how much you get deducted during the year right. Now earned income credit thats a different story. I don’t know off hand what the limits are.

 
 
Comment by Pondering the Mess
2008-01-25 10:53:32

My plan: take the money, put it in a Roth IRA (no taxes, at least for now…), and invest it in a solid foreign mutual fund. Haha -they can take their “stimulus” and shove it!

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Comment by Peterpaul
2008-01-25 11:10:40

Actually, the patriotic thing to do would be to buy something made in America. I plan on using half of our family’s rebate on a nice .40 pistol and the other half will be put into a 20 roll of silver eagles and some treasuries for our little one.

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Comment by Ren
2008-01-25 13:15:34

Mine will probably go to the women’s shelter — I can’t imagine all the housing turmoil is doing anything to lower domestic violence rates.

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Comment by beachhunter
2008-01-25 14:52:08

where is the mens shelter?

 
Comment by Ren
2008-01-25 17:48:22

Actually, ours accepts men as well. http://www.weaveinc.org/lgbtq

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-25 07:55:34

What was scary yesterday is when see pointedly said that more would be on the way if deemed necessary. By whom?

We are witnessing the creation of the mother of all cargo cults here.

Comment by ronin
2008-01-25 09:00:31

Just another entitlement scheme. The typical middle-class family with 2 wage earners can easily make 75k, just in time to see any payouts taper off.

Those who pay well over half of all income taxes get little or no payout. Those who pay very comparitively little in income tax get all the benefit.

Just another wealth transfer scheme, so that the striving middle classer gets taken from both ends… the underachievers and the Boys.

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Comment by dreaming 09
2008-01-25 10:22:52

As written, payments wouldn’t taper off for couples until 150K (75K for singles)

 
Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 12:59:27

Ronin wheels out the daily boogeyman.

Thank you and see ya tomorrow! :D

 
 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-25 09:45:28

The psychology behind this is astounding. Teach people that the state will take care of them, they’re not responsible if they just do what they’re told (buy,buy,buy). Then when the SHTF, they’re incapable of thinking for themselves, are like babies, and are relieved when TPTB take over. We’re turning into a nation of 2-year olds - gimmee, gimmee, wah, wah, wah.

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Comment by Bronco
2008-01-25 12:16:13

Mine will get spent overseas.

Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 02:34:40

I’m going to pay my taxes with my check! :)

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Comment by dreaming 09
2008-01-25 10:16:55

Some articles say “the caps are higher for people with children” but I can’t find what $ amount these higher caps actually are. Has anyone seen this?

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-25 10:34:28

That is not the way Paulson explained it.

IF you get a check base on your income, THEN you get an extra $300 per kid, up to 2 kids.

If you do not qualify for the single-married check based on your income, then no kid check for you.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:23:44

More Risk for Fannie, Freddie?
New Stimulus Package
Promises to Change
Standards on Loans
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and MICHAEL CORKERY
January 25, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120123250591916143.html?mod=PageOne_1

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:30:24

Sidebar shows CA has by far the highest share of nonconforming mortgages for any state, at 35 pct. I suppose that is soon to drop…

Comment by mossypete
2008-01-25 13:45:59

Is that total of all mtg’s or just the ones originated in the last 5 yrs or so ?

 
 
Comment by rms
2008-01-25 08:38:44

“But they continue to exert political power, largely because builders and Realtors see them as a vital prop for the housing market and fiercely resist efforts to constrain them.

Free market forces at work!

Comment by Groundhogday
2008-01-25 10:51:10

“However, this additional responsibility would create a significant challenge for Freddie Mac as we continue to operate under severe capital constraints… Rising defaults pushed Fannie and Freddie deeply into the red in the third quarter, forcing them to sell preferred shares to bolster their capital.”

So if the GSE’s have less and less money to lend (due to rising defaults and losses), will they lend to the jumbo market INSTEAD of the lower end? This seems to be a zero sum game with a shrinking pie to carve up.

 
 
 
Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 06:25:08

another milestone for EU readers - gold today passed the 20.000 euro/kg mark (incidentally, that is also the maximum deposit insurance on savings accounts within the EU).

when I purchased some gold a few years ago (using a gold account - you can convert it into physical for a small fee) at 10.000 euro/kg, my bank immediately classified me as a ’speculator’ because this was an extremely risky investment. Too bad it was just a small investment; I purchased near the top then, had to wait a year to break even…

Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 06:39:28

$920 and rising. I’m loving it.

Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 07:44:50

let’s hope that Goldman Sucks put their money where their mouth was a few weeks ago (but it’s more likely that they took the opposite side of what they were publicly stating, just like with the housing market - Hanks is a clever player that uses all the inside info he has).

Comment by MEaston
2008-01-25 09:47:39

I’m not so sure, more than likely they went long gold before they made the statement, just like when they went long oil and started telling everyone it was going to 100/bb.

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Comment by Mary Lee
2008-01-26 02:21:30

Not me. I keep trying to jump on the tumbles, as I love getting it cheap…….or cheaper than $900, which I suspect will shortly look cheap. Ah, conundrums

 
 
Comment by packman
2008-01-25 06:48:15

At first I though “20 Euros per kilogram!!! Holy cow sign me up!!!”. But then I remember that Europeans use periods in numbers instead of commas.

Oh well.

Comment by packman
2008-01-25 06:57:44

though = thought
(haven’t had my coffee yet)

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 06:51:18

Peak gold?

“Precious metal prices rose massively after news came out that in South Africa all gold mines and most platinum mining operations were suspended,” Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of marketing and sales for Heraeus in Hanau, Germany, wrote in an e-mail today.

http://tinyurl.com/2byozr

 
Comment by cactus
2008-01-25 07:17:08

South African mines are shut down because of power shortages.
Supply down demand up.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 06:25:47

Hey, quick question for the tax experts here: if you owe back taxes to the IRS, will they grab your rebate? That was my recollection in the past. Thanks.

Comment by jeff saturday
2008-01-25 06:40:38

yes. They kept about half of mine last time.

 
Comment by Flatlander
2008-01-25 06:49:48

Yep. Not a tax expert, but have a brother who didn’t get anything back from the IRS for 7 years or so including the last stimulus check. The gubmint gets a little testy when you spend your re-enlistment bonus (USAF) and then are dishonorably discharged.

P.S. My bro also has referred to 144 bottle rockets as a “Yuck” vs. gross. There’s one in every family I guess.

Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 07:36:08

Wouldn’t wish a DD on anyone–sorry to hear that.

Comment by maddog80
2008-01-25 20:55:13

Usually DDs aren’t wished on you. You have to “earn” them.

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Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:37:51

Worse than that, they will call every financial institution you do business with and instruct them to withhold taxes from all interest and dividends. It takes a lot of time and pain to get that unwound once they do it.

 
 
Comment by leosdad
2008-01-25 06:29:38

Friday mischief - quote by Harry Truman:

‘Herbert Hoover once ran on the slogan, “Two cars in every garage”. Apparently the Republican candidate this year is running on the slogan, “Two families in every garage”.’

Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 06:55:15

Rather, two debt slaves in every hedge fund owned shack.

 
Comment by Suzanne, I researched this!
2008-01-25 06:58:12

excellent

 
Comment by ronin
2008-01-25 09:02:42

Just how is this a slogan exclusive to the republican party???

 
 
Comment by kckid
2008-01-25 06:32:03

Mama McCain: Son Has No Support From Base

Q: How much support do you think he has among the base of the Republican Party?

Roberta McCain: “I don’t think he has any. I don’t know what the base of the Repub–maybe I don’t know enough about it, but I’ve not seen any help whatsoever.”

http://thepage.time.com/2008/01/24/mama-mccain-son-has-no-support-from-base/

Comment by palmetto
2008-01-25 07:13:02

Yeah, he’s made this “miraculous” come-from-behind move and newspapers like the NY Times and Tampa Trib are endorsing him and Hillary. Can you say “the fix is in?”. I’m so disgusted by the whole freak show. Complete waste of time. Why not just cut to the chase and nominate them today?

Comment by auger-inn
2008-01-25 07:45:54

exactly palmy. I also found it interesting that every precinct (NH primary) that Obama won had ballots hand counted and Clinton’s winning precincts were machine counted with no backup. At least that is the word up here in NH. Also, Ron Paul is having his votes recounted here, not that the MSM would ever note that. Nary a word about RP’s second place win in Louisiana either.
Basically, the MSM has decided who is going to get favorable coverage (or ANY coverage) thus manipulating the voting public. I find it amazing that this hasn’t been figured out yet by j6p.

Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 08:29:33

I saw the Times endorsements today and gee, why am I not surprised? Corporate America owns this election, and they have done everything to distort and control it. I’m for Ron Paul, but what they’re doing to Obama is criminal. The clinton smear and slime machine is out in full force in South Carolina, led by ho-chasing bill clinton, outdoing even Rove.

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Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:39:26

And this is a surprise because…

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 08:58:08

Was the Louisiana thing a primary, or caucus?? Never heard a thing about it either.

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Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-25 09:45:05

Dems’ election is tomorrow. Repubs had theirs in SC last week.

 
 
 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-25 08:01:47

Don’t you just love it when the editorial staffs of these dead tree rags do your thinking for you? All but the sheep have gotten hip to why they endorse certain candidates. The sheep still think there’s a difference.

Jack Johnson vs. John Jackson (Futurama)

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 07:49:39

That’s because the base understands that McCain is actually a Democrat, and a crybaby as soon as you pull out of an election cycle.

Comment by yogurt
2008-01-25 10:54:04

Crybaby? I’d like to see you after 5 years in the Hanoi Hilton.

Comment by Civil
2008-01-25 11:38:21

Much respect for McCain’s POW misfortunes, but still, he has been an absolutely terrible senator for Arizona. He cares about only one thing - and that is John McCain. Rant off - back to HBB stuff.

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Comment by Lou Minatti
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 06:46:49

That is better than the ones for condos they post in Green Bay’s cl. The condos are all in Florida.

Comment by Leighsong
2008-01-25 07:11:52
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:34:17

There is or was an ad on CL in Chicago, for a 40′ sailboat in storage for $1,000. I was looking at buying because it had a nice cradle. The salvage yard wanted 2K to dispose of the boat! So much for that idea.

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Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2008-01-25 07:52:55

If there’s anything that depreciates faster than a condo these days, it’s probably a boat! Friend of mine some years back bought a 45′ (approx.) Chris Craft. He took a wild beating on it in maintenance, marina fees, and then final loss when he sold it, but despite loss, he sure was happy the day he got rid of it.

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Comment by Graspeer
2008-01-25 08:35:57

A boat is a hole in the water you poor money into.

On another note, looking at my local marina I have noticed with the exceptions of live aboard boats, the smaller the boat, the more its actually used

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:42:59

You know you’ve got a problem when a fill-up at the fuel dock maxes out your Chevron card.

 
Comment by Kim
2008-01-25 15:43:21

“He took a wild beating on it in maintenance, marina fees, and then final loss when he sold it, but despite loss, he sure was happy the day he got rid of it.”

IIRC the expression goes something like: “The happiest days of your life are the day you get a boat and the day you sell it.”

 
Comment by bill in Maryland
2008-01-25 17:44:04

If there’s anything that depreciates faster than a condo these days, it’s probably a boat!

Driving on I-10 between LA and Phoenix many times, I laugh at the rednecks who have the big monster trucks(8MPG), and the other gas guzzlers hauling ATVs or boats. They probably never have over $8,000 in savings for retirement.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 06:41:08

Fed funds still favor 50-basis-point cut, but less so
By Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:12 p.m. EST Jan. 24, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Traders in federal funds futures on Thursday pared their expectations of a 50-basis-point cut rate when the Federal Reserve holds its interest-rate-setting meeting next week, helped by recent rebounds in the equities market.

More muted expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting follow a sharp rebound in global equities markets over the past two sessions and the news Thursday that a global sell-off preceding the Fed’s Tuesday morning emergency cut may have been linked to Societe Generale’s massive unwinding of trades, and not just widespread fears of a U.S. recession.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-funds-futures-pare-likelihood/story.aspx?guid=%7B65AE5528%2DFAAB%2D4E6F%2DAC5C%2D696176B75F5C%7D

 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 06:43:44

hitting J6P where it hurts:

Double-whammy shortages of two main ingredients are threatening to send the price of beer significantly higher, just in time for the national drinking holiday known as Super Bowl Sunday

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22808209/

Comment by Asparagus
2008-01-25 07:27:30

Better start hoarding the stuff.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2008-01-25 08:11:31

Who is playing in the Souper Bowl this year? Seriously, I don’t know.

I do know, however, that sellers are about to trample one another in a mad dash for the exits.

Comment by talon
2008-01-25 08:18:52

The major players are the hotels and car rental agencies in Phoenix, who are currently engaged in an upward spiral of price gouging. Rooms at a Motel 6 anywhere in the valley start at around $500/night, and an econobox rents for $100/day, assuming you can find either one.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-01-25 17:18:45

If you live in Phoenix, keep in mind you can rent your house out for up to two weeks without having to pay any income tax on the rent you earn! :D

I’d rather pay $1,000 a night for a nice house than $500 for a Motel 6 room. (Not that I would pay anything close to that especially for a football game.)

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Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 08:32:19

Pats and Giants.

 
 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 06:45:43

300 billion more?

The world’s financial institutions will have to write down a further $300bn (£152bn) of US sub-prime losses before the crisis is over, according to a study by consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
“We expect a stormy 2008,” Oliver Wyman said in its State of the Financial Services Industry report.

http://tinyurl.com/2gaenz

 
Comment by dennisd
2008-01-25 06:46:38

Pensacola, FL

Price goes up Feb 1! Better hurry. Cute little house, just probably not worth the asking price.

http://pensacola.craigslist.org/rfs/550585801.html

Comment by phillygal
2008-01-25 07:01:30

I can see sellers using that tactic (still) in my area - but in Florida?

Maybe the guy’s a little slow.

Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 07:51:17

Interest rates are going up!!! Hurry! And if you act before midnite tonite you’ll also get a FREE 52″ plasma dildo with pulsating action!!!

Morons still trying use the sense of urgency routine.

Comment by dennisd
2008-01-25 08:19:04

“FREE 52″ plasma dildo with pulsating action!!!”

Darn, I wish I hadn’t already bought one.

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Comment by P'cola Popper
2008-01-25 07:18:02

“Must raise price on Feb 1 in order to pay for realtor–act now to get the lowest price in this highly desired neighborhood! After Feb 1, price will raise to $149,000!”

Oooooooooooh, I’m scared. LOL.

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2008-01-25 06:46:58

The housing bust is transferred to those who had nothing to do with it, via NYC public service cuts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/nyregion/25budget.html?ref=nyregion

And this is just the beginning. Once the damage from the state comes in, expect more service cuts and tax increases.

Comment by aNYCdj
2008-01-25 08:05:38

I’ve noticed a lot more pothole repair crews and less street re-pavings.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 06:48:51

commercial mortgage rates surge:

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is proving powerless to prevent a deteriorating commercial real estate market.

While the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell 1.43 percentage points in the past three months to the lowest since 2003 following four interest rate cuts, the cost of borrowing for apartment buildings, offices, retail properties and hotels climbed as much as 1.25 percentage points, according to David McLain, principal and chief investment officer of Palisades Financial LLC, a private equity firm in Fort Lee, New Jersey.

http://tinyurl.com/yrwh7v

Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 07:47:20

that sounds like a good start :)

unfortunately not yet in Europe :((

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2008-01-25 07:49:32

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seemed to me that the Fed cuts followed the 10 yr yield down, not the other way around.

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 08:17:38

US Treasuries are now trading in the face of accelerating inflation. The Cut in the discount rate below CPI inflation has in the past meant time to bail. I do not trade the PMs (government involvement), however the strategic industrial metals have gone up 10 -20% this week after being up 10% this year already. China is still growing at 11%, India is still growing at 10%, Vietnam is growing at 13%, Malaysia is growing at 10%, Korea is growing.

Comment by Blue Skye
2008-01-25 09:06:45

Please explain which are the strategic industrial metals you are considering. Cu, Al, Zn, Pb all look sideways to sickly on a one or two year view.

By “trading in the face of inflation” do you mean counter to the obvious long term expected trend?

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Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 10:02:12

US Treasuries are going south.

Strategic industrial metals are
Cobalt (used for Prius batteries etc.)
Rare Earth Metals (Used for just about everything now)

I happen to be long and may be writing out of my A**; but since I bought in 2005 I am up over 400%. The US has NONE. (There is one possible mining site for rare earths in Cal, but last yr they had negligible mining activity), there is a proposed cobalt mine in the US.

I spent months researching before I made any investment in these metals. I spent 1 yr, 2 trips to Canada, 1 trip to South Africa, 1 trip to Latin America before I pulled the trigger.

 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 10:35:25

Hoz,

What is your take on South Africa as a retirement destination?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 12:46:47

“US Treasuries are going south.”

Not today — stocks are going south, along with U.S. Treasury yields.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-01-25 15:01:36

SA is the most dangerous major country in the world - check murder, rape, burglary stats. Purdy, though.

 
Comment by shakes
2008-01-25 16:26:38

HOZ how are you investing in Cobalt? I think battery technology and the materials to make them is only going to be more important.
Thanks Shakes

 
Comment by sagesse
2008-01-25 20:02:08

It’s late so this answer may not be read: was just there in Cape T. only, found the vibe not pleasant. It is presented in German media as a pleasant country, probably to hike up their RE, which seems to work to an extent, because it’s the usual line: ‘who buys all those condos?’ ‘Foreigners do’.
Huge divide socially. It did not feel safe, was harrassed even by parking guards fifty yards from hotel, the same parking guards who are hired by the hotel. (been to a number of places, felt more comfortabel in Rio). Did not find there is real hospitality, just greed, arrogance, and a surprising degree of ‘what do I care’. The wine country looks very pretty, and I had the impression that they try to imitate Napa. All of a sudden, after producing bulk wine, everyone tries to outdo the other in going ’boutique’ and high end. Many very fancy cars, the upper crust living must be a very luxurious one.

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 02:50:21

Though I wasn’t the one who asked, thanks for the description, sagesse.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by eastcoaster
2008-01-25 06:55:15

Saw a story this morning on a California couple suing their realtor. Said the realtor didn’t disclose pertinent information (that being of what other homes had sold for in recent months). Cut me a break.

I then Googled “suing realtor” and found this to be the new black of law suits. And the kicker is - many will likely win. Lesson never learned. If you make a bad decision, sue someone. But don’t ever take responsibility for your actions. Ah, the American way.

I gotta’ find me a law suit of some kind to keep up with the Joneses.

Comment by eastcoaster
Comment by hd74man
2008-01-25 12:17:37

Whatta couple of losers.

These purchasing morons had every opportunity to put into their P&S sale agreement that the deal was subject to a satisfactory and acceptable review of the appraisal before closing.

@60 and 71 years old you’d think they’d been around this block before.

But as the saying goes stupidity costs.

Not a chance in court.

 
 
Comment by ET-Chicago
2008-01-25 08:41:00

It’s really difficult to feel any sympathy for realtors (or appraisers, or lenders, or banks, or hedge funds) in this kind of situation.

Comment by eastcoaster
2008-01-25 08:53:26

Agree. However, personally, it’s also hard for me to feel any sympathy toward buyers who “overpaid” during what was crystal clear madness.

 
 
Comment by CasaTostada
2008-01-25 11:14:03

When I shopped for a house a few years back (I’m still a renter after seeing the idiocy), I was disgusted with my realtor. Didn’t know jack and actually said “we consider the ‘b’ [bubble] word to be a bad word.” Wouldn’t even entertain the idea that prices might fall at some point despite the fact that he was ready to pocket $15,000 of my money for doing NOTHING. Realtors need to be sued to be reminded that there are consequences for screwing the person who pays your salary.

 
Comment by reuven
2008-01-25 12:06:41

I then Googled “suing realtor” and found this to be the new black of law suits. And the kicker is - many will likely win. Lesson never learned. If you make a bad decision, sue someone. But don’t ever take responsibility for your actions. Ah, the American way.

I diagree! The only way the American Public can punish the real estate sales racket is with lawsuits. I’ve bought two properties in my life and hired an attorney for each one. In CA and FL, it’s not typical to use an attorney.

Am I glad I did! Both of the attorneys found issues. The first one was relatively minor–an unaccounted for fee that was removed at closing. The second issues were more major; some concerns over easements.

The Realtors where clueless about each of these. I probably would have caught the first problem myself (becuase I actually READ every document I signed and checked the math), but I would not have caught the easement issue.

Realtors represent themselves as professionals and experts. If they misrepresent themselves, it’s your civic duty to sue! That’s the only way we’ll get rid of them, or at least root out 90% of them (bored housewives looking for something to do, e.,g., Carmella Soprano :-) )

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2008-01-25 17:45:29

I believe the realtors deserve to get their asses sued off because they were providing investment advice on an investment that they were going to make a commission on. If any financial advisor said a stock would only go up and no one has ever lost money on it, and it soon after plummeted in value they would (rightfully so) get their fannies sued. Realtors were constantly claiming RE never loses money, it is the best performing asset of all time beating the stock market, it has never gone down (while forgetting to mention this was nation-wide not isolated markets and which after 2007 they can no longer say) and that if people did not buy now they never would be able to afford to. Making these claims WHEN YOU MAKE A COMMISSION OFF THE RESULTS is offering financial advice without a license and I hope the dirtierst agents get thousands of lawsuits.

That said, the buyers were idiots and should not get more than court fees paid and a token settlement. :D

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 06:55:15

I’m dumping my index calls at the open on this gap up. I’m always early but good gain on the long side in what I think is a nascent bear market Buying some Feb index puts.

Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 07:07:51

I’m calling a top at dow 12780.

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:28:53

Another trading mantra
“He who picks tops, ends up bald.”

 
Comment by AdamCO
2008-01-25 09:16:24

i call 12785

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:11:36

Good trading young lady!

I am doing one trade only today. (If I can get the stock off) This week has been a long month.

 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2008-01-25 07:58:58

Chicks call here gives me the warm fuzzies for my SRS purchase.

Comment by Bronco
2008-01-25 12:29:02

you are happy now

 
 
Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2008-01-25 08:00:10

Great to hear. I bought mid-year puts into the open yesterday on DSL and WFC, and again today on WFC when it hit $32. We haven’t seen $32 in WFC for a couple months.

 
Comment by cactus
2008-01-25 11:10:40

Good call

 
 
Comment by Lostcontrol
2008-01-25 06:56:44

pss, “Frodo lives!”

Pass it along!

Comment by palmetto
2008-01-25 07:06:58

“The world is changing…”

 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-25 11:21:52

Not all who wonder are lost.

Yesterday I was chatting with my boss about trying to figure out where to put my 401(k) money now. Stocks overpriced. Dollar falling. Treasuries where I am parked are overpriced.

A fellow manager he shares a large office with says, why worry about it? You don’t need the money for 25-30 years. Just put it somewhere and leave it.

I couldn’t even begin to talk about how dumb that thinking is. It is like being at a poker table with 10 other players, and playing EVERY hand! I just walked out.

Comment by Bronco
2008-01-25 12:34:35

I am in the same boat, Darrell. Not sure what to do with the cash right now. Interest rates are minimal, stocks are overpriced. But doing nothing is obviously not the right answer.

 
 
 
Comment by leosdad
2008-01-25 07:01:55

Friday Mischief II:
no this is not the IE five years from now. It is a ghost town in Namibia, but works well for illustration purposes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaHkhmjeAtM

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:50:49

Isn’t that Palmcaster?

 
 
Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-25 07:05:48

Refi-ing my house, and got the appraisal. Bought in 2003 for $130K. Peak price was $270K about 20 months ago. I expected current market to be $230K but hoped for $240K.

Appraiser asked what my target was. I told him $240K, but $250K would be even better.

He hit $236K. Okay… pretty close to comps. Maybe $5K better, but I’ve done more than $5K in work in the last 2 years.

Comment by gascap
2008-01-25 11:37:16

Darrell, you should have slipped him a 20spot and you would have got your 250K.

 
 
Comment by Little Al
Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 07:13:57

Add gold and oil to that.

Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 07:30:34

I went long(er) both this week. Did you short it?

 
 
Comment by Roidy
2008-01-25 08:05:31

Yikes! Wait until reality sets in again.
Roidy

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:14:30

I enjoy the British word smiths

this is a couple of days old but I booked it because of the beautiful language.

“The Bernanke put: buttock-clenching monetary policymaking at the Fed”

“…The first proposition would mean that the Fed violates its mandate. The second is bad economics.

This panic reaction is destabilising in the short run because it is likely to spook the markets. When the Fed loses its nerve, “things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”. In the medium term it subordinates the price stability target to the real economic activity target. It also lays the foundations for the next credit bubble, after the recession of 2008 has become a distant memory.

It would have been far preferable, particulary because the stock market decline is a global phenomenon, to have a coordinated modest rate cut of, say, 25 basis points, by all leading central banks at some later date, when this would not look like a collective knee-jerk response to a fall in global equity prices.

With this irresponsible act, the Fed has just become part of the problem. Interesting times indeed.”
http://tinyurl.com/237dpr
FT
22 January

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:46:31

After a night playing snooker at the DDI, it was refreshing to read this in the WSJ this am

“It does look like they were snookered into cutting rates,” said one economist…”

At least one economist knows how to play snooker. lol

Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 14:54:58

I saw that too. So now that they’ve been snookered and know it, wouldn’t it be funny if they raised 25 basis points next week?

I would pay to see the look on Cramer’s face.

 
 
Comment by Nomansland
2008-01-25 16:28:21

That’s what I was thinking. The FED has actually spooked the markets instead of providing soft comfort. When it slashes rates in an emergency move, what are people supposed to think?

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 07:38:59

“What would the average American say if Citigroup is faced with the choice of 10,000 layoffs or more foreign investments?” asked New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer, who didn’t have quite the same reaction when the deal involved Dubai Port. Let the foreigners buy our crap!

Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 08:36:42

it’s official. Schumer is an even greater embarassement to NY state than Al D’Amato. The Hilbeast ain’t from ny, so we take no responsibility. She’s corporate America’s senator. Representing the greater interests of Sovereign Wealth Funds is also in her job description.

 
 
Comment by kahunabear
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:50:45

Ben does sort of look like a stand-up economic comedian, doesn’t he?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 23:45:58

You are gifted, bro!

 
 
Comment by bizarroworld
2008-01-25 08:04:17

Harley-Davidson 4Q Profit Skids 26.3 Pct on Weak U.S. Sales, Expects Higher Results This Year
http://tinyurl.com/374juk

Worldwide sales fell 1.8 percent in 2007, while U.S. sales were down 6.2 percent. The overall heavyweight market was down 5 percent for the year, Harley said. Internationally, Harley’s sales finished the year up 13.7 percent.

FBs have less funny money? The Harley forecast for increased revenue growth soulds a bit Yun-like to me.

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-01-25 08:39:23

Saudi Arabia & China do not make motorcycles that go:

Throttle (WFO)…Wide Fu#king Open: VROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM

So those with money have a choice: camel racing or a pleasant Hog tour to the latest Kuwait oil facility. ;-)

Comment by caveat_emptor
2008-01-25 10:32:42

Potato potato potato potato….

 
 
Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 08:56:19

If resale price is any indicator at all, I’d say the Hardly Ableson craze is over.

 
Comment by ronin
2008-01-25 09:09:39

I know a lot of those Harley riders I see are big boys, but it hardly seems like good corporate public relations to openly and insensitively refer to their loyal customers as ‘heavyweights.’

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 09:49:05

We have friends that belong to a Harley riders group in el lay, and taking a group ride is sadly, all the exercise most of them get.

Although wearing black leathers make you look like you only weigh 275, instead of 300.

Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 11:11:48

Funny but true story on my job site in NJ. Equip operator says, “I just bought a hardly ableson with blah blah blah” telling me all about it. I said “where’s your costume?”…. He sez “what”? Me, “you know…. your costume…” Getting irritated he sez “WTF are you talking about?!” Me, “you know…. your village people costume all you guys wear”…. He went berserk with a million epithets….

Hardly Ableson owners=village people wanna be’s. :D :D

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Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 11:09:23

Never understood the whole “Harley” thing. Most of them are too loud and they always sound like they need a tuneup.

Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 11:21:02

Blano I’m not a gearhead but they sound like they need a tune up because they probably do.

 
 
Comment by rms
2008-01-25 12:15:56

The Harley-Davidson dealerships sell lots of theme based products such as leather goods, chrome stuff, etc., and lots of their sales are cash transactions. They have a reliable flock, sort of like Steve Jobs.

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2008-01-25 08:05:27

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) — Banks worldwide may need to raise as much as $143 billion of additional reserves to satisfy regulators if bond insurer rating cuts trigger downgrades for the securities they guarantee, Barclays Capital analysts said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYQVdsjDrc2M&refer=home

 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 08:08:05

Washington Abandons Subrprime Borrowers.

( I have the same criticism of a “stimulus package” that cuts out extended unemployment benefits for people who really need it and gives money to couples making over $150K)

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Fed-fre-fnm-kbh-FHA/index/a/15668

Comment by exeter
2008-01-25 09:01:51

The lack of outrage over that piece of it is mind blowing.

 
Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 11:05:43

How can the KB Homes dude say with a straight face that a $600-$1200 one-time rebate will get the housing market moving again??

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 08:09:48

shorting tech at ndx 1845 dippin a toe in, with room to 1875

 
Comment by Anon In DC
2008-01-25 08:11:50

Recession continues. Article in WSJ on Wednesday about how some Starbucks are test marketing a $1 cup of coffee.

Comment by dennisd
2008-01-25 08:37:00

I recently had an appointment with an urologist. I will spare you all the gory details. Afterwards, I treated myself to a coffee at Starbucks. Spending nearly $5.00 for a cup of coffee was painful enough for me to forget the previous pain I endured.

I probably won’t be back to Starbucks until my next urologist appointment. Hopefully, that won’t be any time soon.

Comment by Earl 288
2008-01-25 11:12:20

Dennis, biopsy?

Comment by dennisd
2008-01-25 11:16:31

Thankfully, not that.

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Comment by packman
2008-01-25 11:16:03

Smart move on Starbucks part.

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 08:14:08

gotta try putin’ em out again to see what the newbie hedgies are made of going into month’s end. if they can ramp it, more power to ‘em. also, we often will see another puke 3 or 4 days after an initial puke.

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-01-25 08:27:49

all is well, no need to worry, our government will hold up the housing market!

Stimulus plan also boosts housing market

Friday January 25, 10:19 am ET
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

The package proposes temoporarily lifting the dollar amount of loans that are eligible for purchase by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and that can be insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The cap limits for FHA loans, which offer protection to lenders against losses that result from defaults by borrowers, will be permanent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080125/012408_stimulus_plan_targets_pricy_housing.html?.v=1

Comment by takingbets
2008-01-25 08:30:03

“The 1 percent drop is a huge factor,” said Yun. “In California, it could create a mini-boom.”

WTF?!!???

 
Comment by ronin
2008-01-25 09:14:38

yayy! People who live where houses are worth $50,000 can subsidize those who want to buy $600,000 houses!

 
Comment by Sekar
2008-01-25 09:29:18

yes..and it will temporarily lift the housing market before it goes bust again. More people will do things they shouldn’t and get hurt by them as the economy shrinks.

Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 12:43:22

yes, so in a few months time they will need free $12.000 checks fore everyone and 750 bp ratecuts to keep the party going; Uncle Ben will love it.

 
 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 08:48:51

A little tidbit:

“..The word “mortgage” comes from the Old French. It literally means “death vow.”

This, the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank tells us in “A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance,” doesn’t refer to the death of the borrower, but to the “death of the loan.” Mortgages have a fixed date at which the loan is supposed be paid off.

Paying off the loan over time is called amortization. That, the St. Louis Fed says, derives from the Middle English for “kill,” referring to killing off the mortgage by paying it down over time.

“The morbid etymology of these real estate terms must have some subliminal impact on potential borrowers, as many continue to find the process of getting a mortgage unnerving,” St. Louis Fed economists Daniel J. McDonald and Daniel L. Thornton write. –David Wessel

WSJ

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-01-25 09:00:31

Yeah, theres a lot of “death” in the air…imagine what the smell is like when it combines with the scent of pesticide in Bakersfried. ;-)

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 12:48:36

‘death vow’

FB to temporarily-owned McMansion: “Till debt do us part.”

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 08:58:47

Globalization is Good for Michigan

“…What products are driving our expanded trade? Despite news about the dying domestic auto industry, vehicles are a big part of the growth of Michigan exports. Vehicles and part exports increased 26.3 percent since 2001. Auto exports have grown proportionally with the rest of exports and occupy roughly the same percent of total exports as in 2001.

And while the auto industry is important, it accounts for only half of the growth. An increase in Michigan fuel exports (the largest being natural gas) accounts for a large amount of overall growth as well, expanding 651 percent from $242 million in 2001 to $1.8 billion in 2006. …”

Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a research and educational institute headquartered in Midland, Mich.
http://tinyurl.com/2oy47d

This will not go over to well with the mopes in Detroit and East Lansing. Trade works both ways.

Comment by ronin
2008-01-25 09:18:56

>>vehicles are a big part of the growth of Michigan exports. Vehicles and part exports increased 26.3 percent since 2001

If this increase is measured in dollars, I wouldn’t call basically tracking inflation ‘growth.’

 
Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 11:00:02

Our beloved governor (sarcasm off now) will either totally ignore this or discount it like she did another idea on the radio one day because some members of this group are…are……libertarians!!

And Detroit will be busy for a while contending with their perjurous, philandering mayor to be concerned with such minor subjects as trade and growth.

 
Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2008-01-25 12:47:24

One thing that struck me growing up in Michigan in the ’70s was that most people were happy with the status quo. They didn’t want things to change and weren’t interested in the rest of the world. Good jobs for not a lot of education and risk, and a security blanket in the form of unions and pensions. This attitude permeated the state in the public and private sectors.

When I was in college (and not being assaulted UMich basketball players) I realized that my chosen line of work would be under assault from all parts of the world, and subject to rapid change in my lifetime. One more reason I couldn’t stay there, though I do miss the outdoors there sometimes.

Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-25 13:30:59

Mills & wood industry were like that here though probably more dangerous work. People still haven’t gotten over the disappearance of good jobs for HS diploma or less. Only trucking comes close, and lots of guys I know went into that a long time ago.

 
 
 
Comment by takingbets
2008-01-25 09:12:06

Stocks gave up some of their early gains Friday as investors grappled with rumors that another hedge fund may have run into financial trouble.

does anyone know which fund it is?

 
Comment by Lisa
2008-01-25 09:32:24

Lead article in today’s SF Chronicle: “Home Buyers Catch a Break” with a write-up on the increase in the GSE loan limits. No mention of how strict the lending standards are, though. Gotta give the sheeple their 15 minutes of hope, I guess.

Ben, could we have a thread on this topic? How the different markets are covering the GSE increase? Is it bubble-headed cheerleading across the board?

I think it will take buyers OUT of the market. There probably won’t be any such thing as a non-conforming jumbo loan up to $625K now. You either qualify under GSE standards or you don’t get a mortgage.

Comment by Max
2008-01-25 11:08:32

No mention of how strict the lending standards are

Nothing a congress bill can’t fix.

 
 
Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-25 10:41:55

Morons on CNBC still saying the slowdown is about psycology… The check is about psycology. The rate cuts are about psycology.

I wonder if they beleive this bull.

Wages up 10% in last 7 years. CPI prices up 17%. REAL prices up more than 17%. We simply have less money after expenses to pay on our debt.

At the same time, we have doubled our debt load.

This is NOT about psycology. It is about WAGES!!!

Now they are talkig about raising the loan limits. Oh, people will be able to refi and stay in their house. REALLY???? What % of those facing foreclosure have equity and sufficient income?

This will make just as much difference as the (phoney) ARM reset freezee.

Is this a bottom, will this be the psycological effect needed to build a base????

NO!!!!!!! It won’t.

Every day they have at least a dozen people talk about the need to stop house prices from dropping… how???

There is only 1 way!!!! Increase wages!!!

Well, I guess we could hand a U.S. govt check for half the purchase price to anyone willing to buy a house.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 10:45:58

“It is about WAGES!!!”

Wages + runaway asset price inflation…

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 10:48:15

OT: Whatcha all think about the former prez morphing into a rabid attack dog? If there be a G0D in heaven, please save us from four more years of the former first couple in the WH.

REVIEW & OUTLOOK
Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy
January 25, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120122030875015291.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-01-25 11:11:48

Prof,

I’m super lefty and female in that 35-44 bracket they are trying to speak to. I should be so pro-HC but damn, the more I see, the more I’m completely turned off my her and the party. I keep wondering if my brain sudden flipped it’s republican switch on my 40th birthday. What’s weirder is we were talking about this last night and dinner and almost everyone at the table were expressing opinion similar in varying degrees. I know what my particular turn offs are but as people were talking no single item came up as the “ah-ha!” item. In political circles, it’s looking like a wild wild west show out there.

On another topic, looks like the DOW hit another waterfall. Will it stick?

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 11:47:20

IMHO in the US there is no difference between the Democratic/Republican parties. The policies are not different, the only difference is the amount of moneys being allocated.

RE: Senator Hillary Clinton, I do not trust anyone that had anything to do with REFCO.
A company founded on tainted meat sales to the government that donated to President Richard Nixon to obtain a presidential pardon for Mr. Friedman. Her entire trading history with REFCO is just as tainted.

I agree with Former Vice President Dan Quayle,

“We have to do more than just elect a new President if we truly want to change this country.”

Comment by arroyogrande
2008-01-25 14:56:59

“here is no difference between the Democratic/Republican parties”

Bingo, if you qualify i with “substantial difference”.

When I go to the polls, I always feel like I’m picking between the lesser of two weasels.

I was one of those crazy people that voted for Ross Perot (that cute little big-eared elf) back in the day. At the time, he had those neat-o charts explaining about deficit spending, living within our means (as a country), etc.

Silly ideas, I know.

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Comment by Arwen_U
2008-01-25 12:05:58

I would think a big turn-off for a lefty would be using one’s position to abuse women on a personal level.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 12:41:09

“I keep wondering if my brain sudden flipped it’s republican switch on my 40th birthday.”

It can happen. I find myself increasingly attracted to traditional conservative values as I watch age 40 through the rear view mirror. But unfortunately, today’s R-cans in power have abandoned traditional conservative principles in favor of political expedience.

Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-25 13:34:46

Happening as we speak! PTB pushing for a McCain/Huck ticket. Bleah!

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Comment by Mary Lee
2008-01-26 02:57:07

Please, no. In a Hil vs John contest, I’d ride with John, with the caveat he choose his VP extremely carefully. War hero credit aside, he’s not aged well, has a serious temper problem, so couple that with the pressures of that job, and I predict a massive stroke in the offing.

 
 
Comment by Blano
2008-01-25 13:42:25

Bingo.

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Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-01-25 15:06:34

“But unfortunately, today’s R-cans in power have abandoned traditional conservative principles in favor of political expedience”

Yes, the Republican Party “is different this time” ;-)

Think of all the money spent on Prisons & Wars…protected in their “gated” communities & private blood banks…while their children download pornography via a taxpayer satellite or a gov’t subsidized DSL…come to think of it…”Dickey Boy” Cheney has been awful quite about his daughter lately…must be preoccupied with making sure he doesn’t leave anything buried in the corners of his desk before leaving next January. ;-)

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Comment by sm_landlord
2008-01-25 15:12:56

Time for a third party.

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Comment by Nomansland
2008-01-25 17:59:30

It has been said that: If you are in your twenties and you are a Conservative, you have no heart. If you are over 40 and a Liberal, you have no brain! :)

 
 
 
Comment by Max
2008-01-25 11:04:10

It’s a bummer - the Fed and the government pulled out the heavy artillery - aggressive rate cuts, increasing loan conformance limits, tax rebates, what have you… All of this will make the slide down, even if it continues at all, painfully slow, and we are not getting any younger every passing year. Come to think of it, maybe even those no-doc loans are going to make a comeback, in which case I will totally play the system and get the biggest house I cannot afford, what the possible downside? There is no stigma of bankrupcy, now everyone it seems has been there, there are no penalties - the government will forgive you taxes on the defaulted loan, and not long after you step off the porch the lenders will line up with offers on your next purchase. Prudence, planning, common sense, and money itself lose their meaning, as anyone can take any risk without consequences, or maybe not even work at all - just trade the houses between each other, as long as there are plenty of poor countries around the world that have enough faith in our dollar to keep lending us at lower and lower rates.

(I had to let it out, they say it helps to get rid of the bad mood.)

Comment by nhz
2008-01-25 12:40:35

just be happy that you live in the US and not in Europe where the downslide will take at least three times longer (maybe even one whole generation …) thanks to even more government intervention.

Comment by Nomansland
2008-01-25 18:12:36

When the downslide finally happens, it may be faster than you expect.

 
 
Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 03:24:27

Max,

You’re not alone in your anger.

We’ve also been waiting patiently…renting for years (you know, being “homeless” according to the pols). We’ve stayed out of debt for over 10 years (except one small car loan and a small mortgage on the house we sold — and carried CC debt over two months).

We don’t want granite countertops, nor grand foyers to entertain heads-of-state.

We just want a simple house with a decent floorplan so we can raise our kids and get on with life.

Sorry, had to vent, too. :(

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 11:04:24

Looking good, Louis. May not have to work the rest of the year after this month.

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 11:10:40

Marge: Bart, how many hours a day do you watch TV?
Bart: Six. Seven if there’s something good on.

Have fun young lady!

Comment by Deflationary Jane
2008-01-25 11:17:32

I wish I could just hand Tx my 401k and say have fun >; (

 
 
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 12:11:55

Shorted LEN again today. Feeling good about it.

 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2008-01-25 13:06:35

Great call above.

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 11:06:45

im taking the rest of the year off mortimer

 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 11:09:03

ndx puke of 40 pts. good enough 10 am here, time to get out in the rain.

 
Comment by neuromance
2008-01-25 11:12:47

Raising conforming loan limits from 417,000 USD to 730,000 part of the stimulus package:

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=111&sid=1332874

Some quotes from the article:

“Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking to reporters after the deal was announced, said he did not support raising Fannie and Freddie’s loan limits without strengthening government power over the companies.

“I got run down by a bipartisan steamroller,” on the issue, Paulson said, adding that he believes lawmakers would still pursue a broad overhaul of government regulation for the two companies…

James B. Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight _ which oversees the two companies _ said in a statement that raising the limits for Fannie and Freddie without providing stronger government oversight “would be a mistake.”

Groups representing Realtors, bankers and home builders, which have been hit hard by the mortgage market downturn, have been lobbying for such changes for months.

The National Association of Realtors has been pushing for a permanent expansion of the Fannie and Freddie limits…”

Raising the limit is going to prolong the unwinding of this bubble.

It is utterly incredible that the NAR has so much power that they were able to get this into a must-pass stimulus bill that both parties want so badly.

They are however, the third biggest government donor since 1989:
http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/index.asp

So, I guess it’s not that surprising.

Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 12:43:50

Glad HP went on the record about his opposition. It will make it easier to cast blame ten or so years down the road when the current ramping up of systemic risk on GSE balance sheets comes home to roost.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 11:16:03

Ambac: The Red Pill

Comment by Darrell_in _PHX
2008-01-25 11:28:05

Ben’s blog: The red pill.

Once you accept it, you can never re-enter the matrix.

What it the matrix. The matrix is the wool that has been pulled over our eyes.

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 11:18:56

for the record, ndx had corrected 540 points from peak or 24%. retraced 145 points of that from 1698 to 1845, or 27%. close enough for government work.

 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 11:27:58

sorry, add 20 points, ndx 1864. i put it out at 1845

 
Comment by takingbets
2008-01-25 11:35:55

Fannie and Freddie Expansion Not Certain

Friday January 25, 1:22 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Fannie and Freddie Loan Limit Growth Could Run Into Opposition in Senate

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080125/economy_stimulus_housing.html?.v=5

Comment by Sekar
2008-01-25 11:52:40

debt is a poor substitute for income.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2008-01-25 12:38:05

Who is going to stand in the way? Senators Dodd and Schumer I am guessing?

 
Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 03:30:52

Am so glad **somebody** sees the folly in this. Thanks for the link.

 
 
Comment by sdsurfer
2008-01-25 11:38:13

dont worry, franklin raines will come out of retirement and grease both sides of the aisle. think of the bonuses he can get with those limits!

 
Comment by reuven
2008-01-25 11:51:55

I’m nearly certain, now that I’ve had a day to reflect, that this bailout will backfire.

The money will be used to either:

1. Get one more month of payments on a house/car/hummer/boob-job before it’s reposssed

Money used like this is tantamount to simply giving some money to the banks. It could be worse, in fact, because it may delay the bank taking possession of the home, causing it to lose value. The amount that this giveaway program totals is no where near the amounts the banks have lost so it won’t help them

2. Spent at Wal*Mart on more Chinese crap. Lots of folks wil pick up a new Plasma TV. How will that help us?

3. Used to get into MORE DEBT! I’m sure we’ll see signs in front of the Hummer dealer that you can drive home a new Hummer for only $1200down (and a 6 year loan). This is just pouring gasoline on the fire.

Does anyone else thing this will HURT us, not help us?

Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2008-01-25 16:00:22

I tired to respond to this post earlier, but it seems to have been lost.

The question to ask is who is the bailout really designed to help? Us (the populace, j6p) or the banks/wall street/corporations.

 
 
Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-25 11:59:45

New business to add to the “businesses that need to go away”. Just profiled on CNBC. Organic dog food.

Comment by tl
2008-01-25 12:36:26

I disagree 100%. The stuff that is put into most dog foods is very nasty — sometimes even including euthanized animals.

Why do you think so many dog get cancer before the age of 10?

Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-25 13:00:00

I’m with you, ti. Most dog food is pure crap. My dogs eat what I eat - steamed organic veggies, rice and beans, and a little cheese once in awhile, etc. They’re very healthy. Had one die last year at the age of 18 1/2. Lots cheaper, too.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 13:06:35

I hope you don’t have any dogs.

Comment by Darrell in PHX
2008-01-25 17:59:30

1, I feed her Iams. The bi tch is lucky she doesn’t get store brand.

Cancer by 10? She’s a german shephard. Her hips will be gone by 12 anyway.

It is a dog, not a member of the family.

Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-26 08:21:19

Glad I’m not your dog.

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Comment by spike66
2008-01-25 14:04:48

Wrong wrong wrong. There is no such thing as organic dog food. FDA has no standards which mandate ‘organic’ in regard to dog food.
What you can buy is human-grade organic dog food. Must meet the same standards as those mandated for human consumption. And that is all that I would feed to my dogs. Anything less is a health hazard.
I don’t care what you eat, and I don’t care what you feed to your children. it’s a free country.
But dog food matters. The folks who feed their dogs food from major manufacturers who advertise heavily are feeding their dogs mainly filler–worthless “byproducts’ , chinese made stabilizers and corn and wheat–which for dogs is the equivalent of sawdust.
Real dog lovers will eat rice and beans before they feed their dogs garbage.

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 14:21:58

This is a good one that a lot of our rescuers use

http://www.honestkitchen.com

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 14:24:57
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Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-25 15:19:27

thanks tx, looks good

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by tl
2008-01-25 12:33:48

What drugs are these guys on???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6eyFoXtngbs

See especially:

Alt-A Loans

While prime borrowers, those with good credit histories, would be the main beneficiaries, homeowners with Alt-A loans that required little or no documentation may also be eligible, the report said.

About one-third of the almost $900 billion in Alt-A loans could be refinanced, according to the study, assuming the applicants were willing to provide full documentation.

In addition to California and Florida, states like Arizona and Nevada, along with metropolitan areas such as Boston, may benefit from the proposal, said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital.

“The economic impact is potentially non-trivial,” Coronado said in an interview. “We could see a better potential outcome in the housing market” in those areas, she said.

Comment by tl
2008-01-25 13:44:36

There is NO WAY that a lot of Alt-A borrowers are going to be able to provide full doc and qualify.

Comment by Not_In_Montana
2008-01-25 16:09:28

New market in fake docs?

 
 
 
Comment by kelowna_steve
2008-01-25 12:38:54

Ka-Poom theory on the housing bust is going to play out now starting to hit the comics page.

Comment by kelowna_steve
2008-01-25 12:41:09
 
 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-25 13:01:59

As much as I hate Vegas, I’d still hate to see anyone hurt. Pretty expensive real estate on fire.

 
Comment by friar john
Comment by watcher
2008-01-25 13:18:48

People don’t even lie well. Why would a bank-owned need a cash buyer?

Comment by friar john
2008-01-25 13:47:07

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. :)

The builder is getting sued by the owners for defects. Sounds like this bank doesn’t want to underwrite the loan if someone were to purchase this condo. Other lenders may pass because of the litigation.

 
 
 
Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2008-01-25 13:08:03

Anyone who is pissed about the increase in the mortage limits for the GSE’s to $700K + should do this. I know some folks here have said it’s a moot point since it’s only FHA limits that are increased and they have tough underwriting, but that’s not right. It’s Freddie and Fannie also, and that means all the banks/mortgage companies have somewhere to dump their junk for much larger loans.

I just posted this on congress.org. It’s a great site. All you do is put in your zip and then it give you all your govt. reps and the President and you can type in one message and get it sent to all of them.

************************************************
I am fine with a lot of the stimulus package, but I am not OK with the
expansion of the loan limits that the GSE’s (Freddie/Fannie) can take on their books.

Why? Because there hasn’t been reform of the rules that the GSE’s operate under and thus increasing the loan limit will allow the same trail of poorly underwritten loans that Freddie/Fannie have on their books now up to $417K to just be extended to $700k+.

This doesn’t make sense. The bad underwriting/lending scam that got us into this mess with lenders dumping bad loans to Freddie/Fannie or to the MBS market will now just be larger loans and now only to Freddie/Fannie.

That will only delay the inevitable and put the burden on tax payers
instead of the corporations/executives at banks,mortgage companies, etc. who made the bad decisions in the first place.

If you require the same kind of prudent rules to Freddie and Fannie that
FHA applies to undrewriting a loan before they approve it, then that is
fine, but don’t make this a situation where the government brings in a new case of booze to a party that should have been shut down a long time ago by the police.

This issue is of critical importance to me and many folks I know, and what happens will reflect in how we vote this fall.

Regards….
**********************************************************************

Don’t know if will help, but in I have to do it to know I tried. Again, please do this if you can. It will only take a few minutes.

Comment by arroyogrande
2008-01-25 15:07:57

“all the banks/mortgage companies have somewhere to dump their junk”

Unless I’m missing something, this isn’t true. The “junk” has to fit the guidelines, so I don’t think you can dump stated income, 100% loan-to-value, etc. etc. etc. cr@p on the GSEs (at least not yet). All it wil do will be to drop the interest charged on these JumbForming loans by about a percentage point. The strict guidelines are still there.

However, because I don’t want taxpayers to be (ultimately) on the hook for the ones they *can* offload, I’ve written both Sen. Boxer and Sen. Feinstein a note, including what the director of OFHEO said about the change.

Comment by lagunabeachinvestor
2008-01-25 15:34:44

Arroyo,

Thanks for writing your reps. The more of us that do, the better the chances of some level of responsible lending practices will be implemented no matter what happens.

On your comment about GSE’s having strict guidelines, I think they bought a ton of conforming subprime loans from banks and mortgage co’s like Countrywide.

Please correct me if I am wrong (or if someone else knows) on the specific terms of what GSE’s (Freddie and Fannie) can purchase, but I don’t think they are 10% + down, full doc kinds of requirements. I do think FHA is a lot stricter, but the mortgage limit increase is not just limited to FHA.

Regards….

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-01-25 19:43:22

Why would the powers be messing around with raising the limits unless they plan to offload this junk paper ? After Congress and the Senate get the increase ,than a new bill is put up for the poor homeowners that need the assistance of the taxpayers using government backed loans .

The biggest problem that they now have in the housing crash is that nobody will loan to sub-prime or will they refinance many properties .

I’m usually right about set ups for future plans . You might see a bill that calls for the taxpayers to fund part of the interest reduction or equity reduction on offloaded bad loans .

Just look at the evidence of the set up :

(1) BB lowering rates .
(2) Congress and the Senate passing laws that forgive taxes for FB’s as well as promotion of stalling on foreclosures .
(3) PR going out to convince public that FB’s need help and it’s in the best interest of all communities to prevent foreclosures . Not to much mention of the fact that FB’s and lenders were fraudulent and speculating .
(4) The powers refusal to address the issue of Justice or fraud or faulty Wall Street investment CDO”s and SIV’s that were used to obtain more leverage or that it was a speculation bubble .
(5) Congress and the Senate have been band-standing BB to justify their new law and bill proposals ,while it pretty clear that BB actions are to save the Lenders and Wall Street .
(6) If the public really understood just how much the current group of Senators and Congressmen and Fed groups and Regulators failed in their job ,(in the last 6 years )they would be fired or impeached .(7) There is a undercurrent of remedies on the tables that seek to avoid the legal process ,(which would be the biggest liability suits in history ).
(8) Government attempt to placate the public by giving a money stimulus .
(9) There is a avoidance of talk about how the insurance companies took on more liability than they could cover regarding real estate loans .
(10) In spite of violations to long standing business law and contract law ,the powers are acting like they are just enacting new laws to cover the crimes that were committed during this housing and lending crime wave.

The past faulty lending is going to mess up lending for years . By all rights ,in a declining market on the verge of recession ,lenders should be requiring larger down payments and charging higher fees for the risk . Only the government can create lending when it shouldn’t be done given normal risk factors . More important ,this time its a matter of passing the bad loans or altering the bad loans ,to a new bagholder ,in the interest of Lenders/investors. So what if the lenders and Wall Street have taken some loss up to this point ,it doesn’t mean that they are able to take very many more .So what if they say that Government backed loans will have certain guidelines ,it doesn’t mean they will behind the curtain ,or that they won’t enact a emergency bill that gets liberal with the loans.
Piece by piece set ups are the most evil ,in my view . Just my 2 cents .

 
 
 
Comment by Big V
2008-01-25 13:21:17

Is the Monte Carlo casino in financial trouble? ‘Cause it’s on fire.

Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 13:51:54

It’s hard to start a hurricane.

 
 
Comment by Sekar
2008-01-25 13:52:44

so what’s everyone’s prediction on how long til the employment market implodes ?

Comment by Big V
2008-01-25 14:02:33

6 months from now … That’s June 25th, 2008. Just a guess, though.

 
Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 14:13:28

I do not foresee an unemployment implosion.

The industries that have traditionally laid off at the beginning of past recessions have not announced any planned layoffs.

The Industries that have been crushed financial , housing and retail have already laid off personnel.

As long as the BRICs are still growing in double digits, the US does not go into recession. A slow down, definitely. A continued collapse in housing prices - Yes. The stock market because it is 40% financial will continue to take a tumble.

The easiest market to trade in the last 30 years.
Buy what China buys, sell what China sells.

Comment by arroyogrande
2008-01-25 15:02:19

“I do not foresee an unemployment implosion.”

I do, retail and services…

Already seeing some of it here, and not just in real estate and financials…

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 15:15:17

Absolutely correct AG, retail and service are not traditional indicators of impending recession. Retail always has layoffs in January to May. Service industries are troubling.

The industries that have led recessions in the past are not hiring but they are not firing. This is approximately 55% of the economy. And this is the part of the economy that pays the highest overall wages.

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Comment by CA renter
2008-01-26 03:39:07

What about the auto industry (and all their supporting industries)? They’ve been laying off like crazy.

 
 
 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-01-25 15:12:40

Disagree. Most unemployment comes in small businesses. Also, announced layoffs aren’t layoffs, and layoffs aren’t an immediate decline in earnings, due to severance and unemployment pay.

There is a big double negative wealth effect coming from stocks and housing. The government will go into significant deficit spending to try to counteract it, but unemployment is going much higher and the economy is going into/is in recession.

Comment by Hoz
2008-01-25 17:14:10

Paul good buddy, You and a lot of others may very well be correct. There is not enough information at this point for my satisfaction.

2 Years ago, i felt that this would result in the worst event since the depression. It still may be. The industries that would be reflecting or presaging this type of economic collapse are looking more like stocks to purchase than stocks to short.

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Comment by reuven
2008-01-25 14:40:44

I just got a letter from BofA! They bounced a check of mine!

I did what I always do: Deposit my checks into my business account, and wrote an owner draw check to my personal account in the same bank.

I’ve been doing this every month for 10 years.

For some reason, they decided to “hold” my deposit so they can “bounce” my check and charged me all sorts of fees. I got them to reverse it, but not without 45 minutes on the phone.

I was screaming at them: WHY DON’T YOU PICK ON SOME DEADBEAT WHO ISN’T PAYING HIS MORTGAGE instead of PICKING ON ME!?

F*ckers!

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2008-01-25 15:11:50

“…not without 45 minutes on the phone”

Start the New Year off with a change: find a credit union ;-)

 
Comment by Bubble Butt
2008-01-25 15:17:02

They keep raising my credit card credit limit which I plan on never getting even close to.

 
Comment by Lost in Utah
2008-01-25 15:22:04

reuven

take a deep breath and smile, they’re toast, it’s just a matter of time…

 
Comment by Big V
2008-01-25 15:44:53

It’s OK, reuven. Everyone yells a customer service rep once in a while. Try US Bank. I have them and I like them.

 
Comment by Paul in Jax
2008-01-25 16:02:07

I feel your anger. Besides the fact that BofA is notorious for nickeling and diming and placing unreasonable holds on large checks with old customers, they have been having serious sytems problems since buying AT&T Universal’s CC business. I am stuck with them for a few more months, but am starting to unwind them from my life.

Also, their “associates” have become very unprofessional. They are illiterate, have bad teeth, write like third graders, and conduct themselves like flea-marketeers. I hate that bank.

Comment by txchick57
2008-01-25 17:13:13

Everyone here likes to dump on WaMu but they’ve been my bank for a long long time and I’ve never had the slightest problem with them. I hope that they stay independent.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2008-01-25 18:33:46

I bank with them also txchick and I have also never had problems .

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Comment by aladinsane
2008-01-25 15:02:19

“The development of civilization and industry in general has always shown itself so active in the destruction of forests that everything that has been done for their conservation and production is completely insignificant in comparison.”

Karl Marx

 
Comment by Pelegirl
2008-01-25 20:59:18

Have you guys seen this? FBs locking their pets in closets or in the house when they send in jingle mail. What the f is wrong with these people? Too irresponsible to read their loan paperwork and so they take it out on the family dog?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080125/lf_afp/uspropertyfinanceanimals

 
 
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