Prices Are Finally Buckling In Florida
The Tampa Tribune reports from Florida. “Data released Thursday showed that sale prices of existing single-family homes in the Bay area dropped every month during 2007 when compared with the same month in 2006, and ended the year down 7 percent at $209,100. The Florida Association of Realtors, which tallied the decline, reported that December was even more grim: the median price was $194,200, a 14 percent drop from $226,800 for the same month a year ago.”
“‘The numbers don’t look good at all,’ said Chris Lafakis, an economist who covers Florida for Moody’s Economy.com. ‘Falling home prices discourage some buyers from buying, and that’s not what we need. Florida is literally drowning in excess supply right now.’”
“In the Bay area, he said, prices have dropped about 11 percent since peaking in mid-2006. He predicts they will fall by as much as 18 percent more. ‘Sellers in Tampa have been reluctant to slice prices, and that’s why the inventory is so high,’ Lafakis said.”
“There’s one thing that drives real estate agent Tony Rojas crazy: unrealistic sellers who insist on asking buyers to pay boom-year sales prices despite profound drops in area home values. So he has decided to walk away. In essence, he’s firing them.”
“‘We as Realtors have two choices,’ said Rojas. ‘We can tell clients what they want to hear. Or we can tell them the truth: Values have dropped. Some clients get so mad when I tell them what their home is really worth that they won’t even call me back.’”
The Ledger. “The housing market didn’t save any surprises for December, as sales totals fell again to cap off the weakest year in Polk County since 1999. Polk’s median sale price in December was $154,100, a decrease of12 percent from $174,300 the year prior, the Florida Association of Realtors reported.”
“‘I try to counsel my sellers to be competitive in their prices, and I think that’s the key right now,’ said Judy B. Cleaves, a Realtor based in Winter Haven.”
“According to a rough estimate from the Polk County Builders Association, the county still has between 4,500 and 5,000 unsold homes on the market. Scott Coulombe, the association’s director, said the group now estimates that as much as 50 percent of the sales activity during Polk’s housing boom might have been the work of speculators.”
“Although Cleaves said she is content to ride out a dismal period in Florida’s housing market, she is tempering her expectations of a significant recovery in 2008. ‘I think we’re going to have a ‘hang in there’ year,’ she said.”
The Herald Tribune. “The number of local homes sold in December fell 10 percent from a year earlier. Some argue that the Sarasota-Bradenton market is on firmer footing than much of the nation because sellers have aggressively reduced prices. But others are reluctant to call that bottom.”
“‘We’re not seeing a recovery, merely a slowing of the fall,’ said broker associate Andrew Bers. ‘After huge price run-ups locally over the past several years, our market retreat was one of the first and fastest. Now that decline is starting to slow as we return to more sustainable price levels, but affordability is still affected by several issues that will continue to put downward pressure on pricing and sales.’”
The News Press. “Lee County home sales ended a horrible year with a sharp two-month drop in prices, according to a report Thursday. For single-family homes in Lee County, the median price in December was $215,200, down 18 percent from $263,700 a year earlier and 10 percent off October’s $239,300. November’s numbers weren’t available.”
“‘I’ve seen in the last couple of months some pretty big price declines,’ said agent Brett Ellis. ‘A lot of sellers are getting caught unaware of what’s happening in the market.’”
“Overall, he said, the decline in the median price probably understates the actual drop in the market since its frenzied peak in late 2005. Since the record high of $322,300 in December 2005, the median price is off 33 percent.”
“About 1,000 homes a month are going into foreclosure, a trend Ellis said should peak in the third quarter of this year.”
“‘Forget the official median statistics; the market’s down, in my opinion, 40 percent and some of the waterfront markets more than that: half, maybe 60 percent,’ Ellis said.”
“One homeowner trying to sell said she’s still hoping to get a good price. ‘I don’t know. Look at the market. But we’ve got 2 acres. How much lower do we go?’ said Jill Goodman, who with her husband is trying to sell the four-bedroom, four-bath house and guest cottage they’ve owned for six years in Fort Myers for $729,000. They bought it in 2001 for $262,900.”
“They’re trying to sell without an agent and may come down on their asking price, which they’ve already cut from $1.1 million when they started in June.”
“‘There’s still a little room to negotiate,’ Goodman said.”
The Naples News. “The number of homes sold in Fort Myers/Cape Coal saw a 28-percent decline while condominiums dropped 10 percent. The Naples-Marco Island area showed a 26-percent decline in homes sold, said a report.”
“‘I have seen prices drop by more than 30 percent in some areas like Golden Gate Estates, less in others,’ said broker Jerry Osinski.”
“‘The real estate market is cyclical,’ said Mary Birdsong, broker in south Fort Myers. ‘I don’t know where the bottom will be, but the cycle will end.’”
The Miami Herald. “Would-be buyers can take heart that South Florida home prices are finally buckling.”
“In Broward County, the median price of an existing single-family home dropped 10 percent to $329,800 in December compared with a year ago, according to a report. Condo prices slipped 14 percent, to a median of $171,800, following a year of declines.”
“‘You are seeing 10 percent drops now, and you’re going to continue to see that, and even greater numbers,’ said Jack Winston, a principal with data analyst Goodkin Consulting in Miami, of condos. ‘It is going to be catastrophic.’”
“Doug DeWitt, a Miami real estate broker, said he had recently received 16 offers, mostly from cash-wielding investors, on a vandalized four-bedroom town house in Westchester reduced from $230,000 to $166,000.”
“Winston questioned the wisdom of bargain-hunters, saying they may be mistaken in thinking the market had hit bottom.”
“‘At the end of the day, who are you going to sell those units to? You need real buyers,’ Winston said. ‘People may scour around for bargains here and there, but if they aren’t going to live in the property, they’ll still have to hold it.’”
The Sun Sentinel. “Palm Beach County existing home sales last year fell 19 percent, to 6,971 from 8,640, the Florida Association of Realtors said Thursday. It was by far the fewest homes to change hands in a single year countywide since the Realtors group started keeping track in 1994.”
“‘We’re in a contraction phase,’ said David Levin, a Delray Beach-based housing analyst. ‘It’s going to take time. We need to step back philosophically and realize that.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “Median prices of existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast dropped 12 months in a row, the Florida Association of Realtors said.”
“But although local home sale ads are filled with five and six-figure price cuts, and although sellers are offering to hold second mortgages or even pay several months of the mortgage, sales have stalled.”
“There’s no getting around it: 2007 was an ugly year for home sales, raising fears that the slumping housing market would lead to a recession.”
“Bradley Hunter, director of the South Florida region for MetroStudy in West Palm Beach, said he applies ‘the duck test’ when pondering such weighty things as recession: ‘If it quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck and walks like a duck,’ Hunter said, ‘it’s a duck.’”
“Translation? ‘We’re at least in a localized recession,’ he said.”
From TC Palm. “Existing single-family homes are selling for $43,200 less than a year ago in Martin and St. Lucie counties, but Realtors say things may be looking up. Or at least they’re stabilizing to numbers that more reflect the market before the speculators’ surge of the past few years.”
“‘I estimate we had somewhere in the area of 40 percent of the buyers the past few years were speculators,’ said Scott Wingfield, president of the Realtors Association of St. Lucie County. ‘They’re out of the market now. You’d be doing yourself a disservice to look at those numbers. We need to get back to comparing it to ’01, ’02, ’03 with what is happening. That is a real reflection of the true market.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Lenders have foreclosed on several properties owned by Orlando developer Cameron Kuhn, including his centerpiece tower project The Plaza, the largest redevelopment in downtown’s history.”
“The two other foreclosure suits against Kuhn were filed in late December by Illinois companies. One involves the mortgage on Kuhn’s Lake Butler home in Windermere; the other involves property in downtown Orlando on which Kuhn once planned to build a mixed-use tower.”
“The trio of foreclosures raises questions about Kuhn’s plans for Church Street Station, a once-popular but bankrupt entertainment complex he bought with great fanfare last year for $34 million.”
“‘We have been through some downturns and always come back,’ said John F. Ballard, a senior director based in Orlando with the commercial real-estate brokerage Cushman & Wakefield of Florida. ‘I see no reason not to be confident about Orlando’s future.’”
“One of his fellow investors in The Plaza LLC, which does not include the garage, told me Kuhn is taking the hit ’stoically.’ ‘Cameron is not happy about it, but he’s not curled up into a fetal position,’ said Griff Winthrop.”
“Kuhn’s troubles follow a foreclosure by a Dutch bank on Euro American Advisors’ 55 West, a condo tower on Church Street. And we’re left with a downtown that appears to have a skyline thick with towers from a distance, but like a mirage, dissipates up close.”
“The sidewalks aren’t as crowded as they should be. Retail choices are lacking. Take a look at the balconies of the condo towers and count how many have the homey touches of plants or patio furniture — there aren’t many.”
“Downtown’s potential is still great. But empty buildings are still empty no matter how shiny and new they are.”
The News Journal. “It was not a good year for home sellers in Volusia and Flagler counties. There were 6,701 houses sold by Realtors in 2007, the fewest since 2001. The dwindling sales pulled the median price of houses in the two-county area below $200,000.”
“‘Things are still shaking themselves out,’ said Realtor Greg Antonich, a past-president of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors.”
“He said the drop in the median sales price was to be expected, noting prices have risen in recent years as homeowners used their properties as ‘piggybanks’ and refinanced them for various reasons.”
“‘A lot of this was artificial,’ he said about pricing.”
“Local residents Arline and Richard Pendl have been trying to sell their home in Sunrise Oaks for nearly a year. But no serious takers have surfaced for the four-bedroom, 2,600-square-foot home with a double garage.”
“It isn’t that the retirees don’t like the house or even the area. They simply have decided it’s time to downsize and, oh yeah, there is the question of those increasing property taxes. ‘The taxes are just unbelievable,’ Arline Pendl said in a telephone interview. ‘They have gone up $2,000 since we moved here.’”
“So while they wait, the Pendls have dug in their heels and dropped their asking price to $369,000. They dropped it twice before, she said. ‘My husband and I agree that we are not going to give this house away,’ she said.’
“So while they wait, the Pendls have dug in their heels and dropped their asking price to $369,000. They dropped it twice before, she said. ‘My husband and I agree that we are not going to give this house away,’ she said.’
You do that. In the mean time the same exact shack across the street will sell for
We really need a new drinking game called “We’re not going to give it away!”
Dang Aim! We’d be lushes 24/7!
LOL!
Leigh
But you know…
That would be a fun game! Lol! Every time I see that line I smile. For we all know its not true.
Got popcorn?
Neil
True story: After 9/11/01, the “everything has changed” rhetoric was coming from the MSM like water from a firehose. So, I proposed the September 11 Drinking Game. Every time the EHC quote came over the MSM, it was time to take a swig.
I am seeing big drops in Florida. Let them get foreclosed or priced in forever. In Loxahatchee(the acreage) theres now over a dozen houses for under $200k with a pre-foreclosure at $160k(worth $80k)
“In Loxahatchee(the acreage) theres now over a dozen houses for under $200k with a pre-foreclosure at $160k(worth $80k)”
There are even more than that when you factor the acreage of 33470, 33412, and 33411. It’s astounding when you think that lots were selling for $250,000 just a couple of years ago.
Yes, those are crap shacks, I am waiting for the 400,000 homes to start coming down to half and then we will buy.
I note, my friends that bought in 2007 for 365,000 (thinking they got a deal because the same home had sold for 495,000 at peak) well, the same house just up the street sold in December for 309,900.
That is a 40% haircut from peak in a really nice gated community. My friend said to me the other day “my area is different because…….bla bla bla”.
Come on Loxahatchee, lets see those prices really start to come down, I am a cash buyer!!!!!!!!
Gated communities, hah! Wait ’till they run out of HOA fees to keep the gates working… they’ll be propped open with a rock.
i don’t think they should give it away, either.
I think they should continue to make the mortage payments until they have paid off the full balance.
Do we know if they “own” this house ? OR is it a bank lease with option to flip for a profit??
If they’re over $100sf they’re definitely not giving it away. I hope they just sit there and wait until they do have to give it away….back to the bank.
Jeez… What happened to my post.
“So while they wait, the Pendls have dug in their heels and dropped their asking price to $369,000. They dropped it twice before, she said. ‘My husband and I agree that we are not going to give this house away,’ she said.’
You do that. In the mean time the same exact shack across the street will sell for
???
The same shack across the street will sell for less than 200k.
Let go or be dragged.
Exeter, the HBB Comment Eater is what happened to your post. It is hungry. It demands to be fed. No HBB comment is safe…
ha…. I left out the “less than” sign the third time and it posted up no problem.
I’ve noticed that it doesn’t so much eat them as delay them. I’ll make a post, then when I see it isn’t there after a few minutes of refreshing, I’ll go eat dinner. It’s usually there when I come back.
How much lower do we go?’ said Jill Goodman, who with her husband is trying to sell the four-bedroom, four-bath house and guest cottage they’ve owned for six years in Fort Myers for $729,000. They bought it in 2001 for $262,900.”
“They’re trying to sell without an agent and may come down on their asking price, which they’ve already cut from $1.1 million when they started in June.”
“‘There’s still a little room to negotiate,’ Goodman said.”
I hope these asshats ride this sucker all the way back down below their 2001 prices.
This just illustrates how much farther this market has to fall to even approach sensible pricing.
that is crazy!
they paid 262 and trying to sale for 729? they better be on waterfront with a view of the gulf. who ever buys from them will swim with the fishes really soon.
And they started at 1.1 Mil!
They deserve a nice insult offer of $109,000.
THey’d need a cash buyer because I doubt any appraiser would be dumb enough to hit that price.
I doubt any appraiser would be dumb enough to hit that price.
The only ones that were dumb enough have lost their license or are either in jail, out on bond or headed to prison.
Is that really happening? Appraisers losing their licenses and going to jail? I hope it’s true. Haven’t seen much about this in the MSM.
The state of Florida and many other states have websites that you can view license information for realtors, appraisers, etc. Very interesting stuff. In Florida, it’s myflorida.com. I looked at the boom states. You can also search the criminal records dockets in the clerks office and look for these cases.
“One homeowner trying to sell said she’s still hoping to get a good price. ‘I don’t know. Look at the market. But we’ve got 2 acres. How much lower do we go?’ said Jill Goodman,
That’s right, you had two acres when you bought it in 2001 for one third what you’re asking now.
Maybe they spent $500k on “improvements”.
—or luxury vacations??
Who knows? Sounds like pure self-dillusion of price “appreciation”.
If they are the people I think, they have a large position in condos in Sarasota to worry about as well. I could be wrong on this.
This couple wins the Clueless Award this week. What a riot. My mouth dropped when the writer shared what the couple paid in ‘01. Good luck to them. My guess is they’ll be waiting for a long time to move that property and will be lucky to avoid ‘97 prices with the wait they have positioned themselves in.
I wonder though, did they add on to this place? Maybe they doubled the size of the house and things like that. A jump from $262k to $1.1m seems really crazy without some changes to the main home… One would think, but I know, I know, we are dealing with crazy and delusional so anything should be expected.
Haven’t we seen it all on here the past several years. LOL!
Test
The house we first rented in September when we moved here to Florida had sold in 1999 for 225,000. My former landlord paid 650,000 in 2005 and now is trying to sell it for 690,000. There was never any improvements done on this house. But you know, “it’s different on that street”.
Public records show them as free and clear. Another case of just stay put stupid!
LOL,
Leigh
Is there anyway to get in touch with these fktards? Just to let them know what’s on my mine…;)
The Goodman’s need to use the NAR RE Agent Standard Operating Proceedure in selling this house or Plan B.
Plan A NAR SOP. DROP the Price by $100 a month until it Sells. Smile and Hang on.
Plan B. Dig some family graves in the backyard because the Goodman Family ISN’T going anywhere soon UNLESS the REPO man carts their DEAD BODIES to the curb for the City to pickup
True story from up the street: A young couple bought a house, that, shall we say, had seen better days. Being industrious and eager to make things better, they set about renovating the house and landscaping the yard. However, the landscaping took a creepy turn when they accidentally unearthed some cremains. Which they reburied.
LOL
cremains.
is that like cremated remains or typo for remains.
Either way, that’s hysterical.
it’s a real word
It’s the remains of a cremated person, you dimwit.
Yes, it is a real word, not a common one, but no reason to call people “dimwit” for it. C’mon!
What kind of cremains? The kind where the scorched Buccaneers jacket, hip hop pants and laceless Nike Air sneakers are still around them and the bullet is in the middle?
Years ago when I sold real estate I called an agent to make an appointment to show a property. She told me it had a lockbox with the key and not to worry the man was going to dig up his wife’s remains and take them with him. My mouth dropped to the floor, and I said, “excuse me?” She said, “Oh, sorry, it’s just her ashes. Well my clients, once they found out someone had been buried on the property, decided they didn’t want to look at it in case her ghost decided to stay after her ashes were removed, because she didn’t want to go along with her husband.
Guess what? It’s all about market timing and Jill pressed the snooze button one too many times.
They should be able to go down to 262K minus the principal they’ve paid off so far, right? Right? Anyone, Bueler?
That’s what I think, $262k is a fair starting price for that house. They will be lucky to get $159,000 for it next year.
the stress is beginning to take place. south florida is always the last to figure it out. so much housing is coming into the market, the numbers in the paper really dont reflect the reality. any foreclosure takes away a buyer and a home or two or more into the market. and the banks will soon start selling off their supply. the ground level prices should return to pre-2001 levels by the summer of 09.
SOUTH FLORIDA IS THE NEW ATLANTIS
GUY FAWKES
This time they will be the first to figure it out. Where America is going, South Florida is getting there first.
Living here, I don’t know that you are correct. They cannot figure out how to use a turn signal, or stop at a red light, or not park in the fire lane, or speak English, or how much change to give when handed $1.02 against a $.97 item, or fill out a ballot. I’m not sure that many of them know what planet they are on.
My wife likes to watch Animal Planet, and earlier this week they had a show on exotic pets. We all know about the popularity of pythons, but I was surprised to learn that the number of venemous serpents kept as pets has forced the creation of a special snake unit in the Miami-Dade sheriff’s office, complete with a fridge full of antivenin. The spokesman said: “Last year we had more cobra bites in this county than in South Africa.”
Do they carry realtor antivenum?
fark.com, collector of weird news stories, has a section simply labeled “Florida”.
Flatlantis
I’m not sure that many of them know what planet they are on.
LOL. See the Goodman’s above.
Half the listings in cape coral/fort myers is bank foreclosures. All those developers and speculators simply walked away. I am seeing houses at $100/foot and I would not be surprised to see them drop to $60/foot in a few years. Youll be able to get a nice house there for under $100k and some cheaper fixer uppers for $50k
I live here in Winter Haven and there is no doubt in my mind about this statement.
Houses in this bedroom community to Tampa and Orlando soared over the last 5 years. Many flippers bought multiple properties.
Now, the intersections throughout the county are littered with desperate, hand scrawled bandit signs.
Everything everywhere is for sale down here. I can take you to one of the upper middle class neighborhoods near my triplex ( “Interlochen”…basically Lake Howard Terrace ) and every fifth house is for sale. This is an establiished neighborhood, not some tacky stucco box development. Some of the sales aren’t flippers either; just people who want to move along with their lives and work/live somewhere else. They are stuck.
South of Winter Haven is a cowpasture-turned-flipper-mecca called “TerraNova”. The blood is in the streets there. Lots of overpriced 3/2 stuccos languishing in the sun while the ARM’s are ticking away… Their flipper masters are beginning to bail.
Thompson Road near Polk County Parkway contains several developments and hundreds of homes out there have For Sale/Rent/Whatever signs in the yards and they haven’t even taken the paper decals off the windows yet. I’ll bet that some of the absentee flippers have never even set foot on one of these properties. No way would I want to buy anything that was built out there.
I will probably be looking to buy in 2009 or 2010. Finally !:)
..
In other news, the association is now estimating that George Washington might be the first president of the United States. Like they didn’t know that as these builders were selling them, over the phone, to people that hadn’t even seen them.
I once had a recruiter who, not knowing that I actually have made the highly disagreeable drive from Tampa to Winter Haven, try to sell me on a job there, describing the commute as “about forty-five minutes.”
Did they tell you there was no traffic on I-4 and it is such a nice road to commute to work on?
50% the work of speculators? More like 99%.
Here in Hyde Park (Tampa) prices have not come down at all, though the number of for sale signs is slowly climbing. We have zillions of empty condos and townhouses, yet the city has approved two new condo towers to be built by a distant firm that hasn’t got a clue about real estate in this neck of the woods. Asking prices in Hyde Park are three to five times what they were five years ago, but the quality of construction is infinitely worse.
“It’s different here” is heard a lot, not only in Hyde Park, but everywhere else in south Tampa, but nobody ever finishes the notion by saying to whom, what, or where.
Blah! It’s different here will be the swan song of every homeowner in S. Tampa. My husband’s peanut-brained co-workers pulled that crap. Of course, they bought 1600 sq ft houses in 2005 for $425K, so what so they know.
I hear it constantly. When I mentioned the bursting bubble to an architect from Davis Islands, he had a fit, and insisted prices would NEVER go down in his neighborhood. I guess as long as there are tasteless rich suckers from New York willing to pay New York prices for crap, he may have a point. Still, Davis Islands boomed and busted before, and I don’t see why this can’t happen again. Same for Hyde Park.
Davis Islands was ground zero of the 1928 property bust in Tampa.
I’ve been watching the South Tampa area and it now is one of the highest areas in foreclosures. Many of the realtors in the area have told people they do not need to lower their prices because it is South Tampa. Let’s see how long they can hang on to that money draining property.
I saw that too — I looked at foreclosure.com and saw impressive foreclosure and preforeclosure numbers for 33610 and 33629. Many of those neighborhoods, unfortunately, have been disfigured by McMansions during the last seven years.
The area codes to look for are 33606 (Hyde Park and Davis Islands) and 33609 (Palma Ceia).
Palma Ceia is 33629. And it’s chock full of foreclosures.
33609 is everything west of Dale Mabry and north of Gandy. Beach Park, Sunset Park, some crappy areas north of Kennedy, etc. There are some very nice neighborhoods and some not so special neighborhoods in that area. I wouldn’t ever buy there though because the canal areas are pretty but stinky and I think the only place to shop for groceries is that nightmare Publix on Neptune and Dale Mabry.
Did they change the zip code for Palma Ceia? I used to live there, next to the golf course, and the zip was 33609.
That area was, at that time, designated Palma Ceia. I’ve noticed that the name is now used for an area across MacDill, and we I used to live is now designated Golfview or Golf View (I haven’t looked at the sign lately).
Actually right now I live west of Dale Mabry and north of Gandy and my zip code is 33629. I won’t swear it, but I think 33609 is north of Bay to Bay and 33629 is south.
But take a look at the foreclosures and preforeclosures in 33611, which is SOG (South of Gandy).
It’s true. Even doing a search on Realtor.com (although I like Smith & Assoc. site because it gives full addresses) many of the listings say “bring all offers! Short sale subject to lender approval.” Then you search the property in the clerk’s system, and a lis pendens was filed back in Sept. I don’t know how long it’s currently taking to cycle through the foreclosure process here, but 5 mos. since the notice of default is a decent amount of time within which to get the ball rolling.
I believe the banks held of foreclosing on homes until about mid January. The banks are also having resource problems because there are just too many for them to process, thus causing the delays. If I’m not mistaken, it takes about 6 months in Florida to complete the foreclosure process from start to when the bank receives ownership.
Speechless, Half a million Blown…where did it go?
———–
I don’t know. Look at the market. But we’ve got 2 acres. How much lower do we go?” said Jill Goodman, who with her husband Arnold is trying to sell the four-bedroom, four-bath house and guest cottage they’ve owned for six years on Magnolia Lane in Fort Myers for $729,000. They bought it in 2001 for $262,900
..
Greedy B!tch.
..
She will ride the market to the bottom. I am happy because some GF will be saved. Those sellers deserve to lose all their bogus “equity” and I hope no one pays more than what they paid in 2001
Ft. Myers is a f*c*&*d up small town with nothing to do or anything going for it. It has no natural resources except the Gulf of Mexico and the Peace (cow-pee) river nearby. The area is a traditional Florida inbreeding ground where most neighborhoods consist of a couple recently built crapboxes with old trailers dispersed inbetween. The city has no cultural area, nada, zip, nilch, nothing to do except attend a spring training baseball game, beach, and go to the mud run on Friday night.
There’s no reason a house should be priced over $99,000 there. (Sorry Cobra Driver, no offense meant)
My comments can be extrapolated to almost every area of Florida except Miami, where the fun includes going to the store or the airport and trying to find an employee who speaks fluent English (I know it’s an exaggeration, but still partly true!)
“….where did it go?…”
HELOC:
Mtg Recording Date: 12/07/2005 Mtg Loan Type: CONV
Mtg Document #: 155216 Mtg Rate Type: ADJ
Document Type: EQUITY OR CREDIT LINE
Lender: CITIBANK FSB Mtg Term: 30 YEARS
Loan Amount: $305,900 Mtg Rate:
Borrower 1: GOODMAN FAMILY TRUST Borrower Vesting: / / PT
It is not even assessed for anywhere near that:
Site Information:
Zoning: AG-2 Acres: 1.90 County Use: SINGLE FAMILY (0100)
Flood Zone: B Lot Area: 82,764 State Use: SINGLE FAMILY (01)
Flood Panel: 1251240350B Lot Width/Depth: x Site Influence:
Flood Panel Date: 09/19/1984 Res/Comm Units: / Sewer Type:
Land Use: SFR Water Type:
Tax Information:
Total Value: $433,890 Assessed Year: 2006 Property Tax: $4,072.49
Land Value: $283,330 Improve %: 035% Tax Area: 012
Improvement Value: $150,560 Tax Year: 2006 Tax Exemption: HOMESTEAD
Total Taxable Value: $242,830
Nice work Dave. I hope these chumps never change their minds, and stay in that house forever. Don’t give it away suckers, just keep saying no.
Dang, I wish our county records would turn up such gems.
That’s a very interesting set of numbers.
Note that more than 1/2 the assessed value is in the land. Land prices have been dropping like water over a fall in LEE County, and neighboring regions.
When re-assessed, it will probably go a lot lower.
They drank the kool-aid. They believe the dirt is worth $500k. Two acres are probably worth 100k, tops.
Dang, I wish our info was online here..gotta go to the courthouse and dig it up.
Oh dang, Az Slim already said dang..
http://publicrecords.netronline.com/
Here is a spectacular website. It’s self explanatory, but click on the state you’re interested in and then you get a list of counties. Pick the county and it will give you links to the various county sites.
“Website only” - means you’re out of luck and that site doesn’t have online records. But if it says “go to data online”, then you will likely be able to search for property information.
That explains the “we still have some room to negotiate” comment from the original article.
For a flavor of the truth and social commentary of Florida’s past bubble, land bubble in the 20’s and 30’s, would suggest movies by the Marx Brothers.
Just one person’s opinion.
I prefer Karl Marx…
“History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.”
“‘The numbers don’t look good at all,’ said Chris Lafakis, an economist who covers Florida for Moody’s Economy.com. ‘Falling home prices discourage some buyers from buying, and that’s not what we need. Florida is literally drowning in excess supply right now.’”
He shouldn’t be allowed call himself an economist until he passes Econ 101. The solution to excess supply is to increase demand - by lowering the prices.
I do see how falling prices could discourage demand though. If people are looking at houses as investments instead of commodities. Prices won’t rise any time soon because they are too high - so forget about investors, you aren’t going to attract them. Prices will have to fall to a point where people think its worth living in a house for that price, regardless of its future price potential.
“I do see how falling prices could discourage demand though.”
Also taught in Econ 101. It’s not just supply and demand but perceived value. As the perceived value goes down, the demand follows.
‘perceived value’ is also tied to ROI.
A beautiful horse might be worth $200k. A beautiful horse that’s a triple crown contender is worth $2M or more. Suddenly everyone has woken up to the fact that they bought common draft horses.
Sales will continue to slow.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Falling home prices discourage some buyers from buying, and that’s not what we need. Florida is literally drowning in excess supply right now.”
Let’s turn take the negative sentiments out of the statement and see what happens.
‘Falling home prices encourage some buyers to buy, and that’s what we need. Florida is fortunate that the excess supply will allow more people to buy in the future [when prices fall to reasonable levels]”
I like my version better.
Prices will have to fall to a point where people think its worth living in a house for that price, regardless of its future price potential.
In other words, when people are buying for yield, not expected capital gains.
Or in more words, when people actually regard a house as an investment in the correct meaning of the word - an asset that yields income.
Or in still more words, when it’s cheaper than renting.
“In other words, when people are buying for yield not expected capital gains.”
A bird in hand is worth two in the bush, as discussed in this article:
http://alternativeanalyst.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=32
It’s nice to see the FL market returning to earth. FL was once a dynamic market where the well off could buy in Palm Beach, Miami Beach, Naples, etc. while retired J6P could pick up a nice retirement home in alot of other areas for less than $100k. In my opinion, median prices of $150k to $200k is still too high.
With all of the government bailouts on the table, don’t expect home prices to drop very soon. “Saving the economy” means saving the FB from facing their day of reckoning for a year or two, and propping up home prices.
You can count on Florida’s mortgage woes becoming a major campaign issue once McCain and Clinton face off in November. They will bend over backwards to find ways to bail out this important swing state.
Won’t matter as I, along with thousands others are leaving Florida. I probably won’t be comming back. Theres nicer houses, less crime and four beautiful seasons with rolling hills up north. Oh and a good selection of $50k homes. Ill buy a small house for around $25k and ride this out patiently.
‘With all of the government bailouts on the table, don’t expect home prices to drop very soon.’
Uh huh. They’ve been dropping for over two years.
They’ve been dropping in some parts of the country more than others, but going from 300% of historical norms to 250% (or whatever) doesn’t mean anything to the average homebuyer. I’m talking about dropping to affordability.
Did I miss something, or has that occurred already?
Too little, too late. Nothing the gubmint does right now will stop the momentum toward lower prices. True, they will fall all over themselves to look like they are doing something, but the market will largely correct on its own.
How is the bailout going to affect developers holding on to massive inventories in FL? I can see how bailouts could maybe prop up some buyers, but I have not heard how this might help new home sales.
The bailout won’t save those people. They can not refi because the house will not appraised for anything near the current mortgage. They would need to have a LTV of 80% or less not 120% or more. There are still toast.
Florida’s FBs are going to be the ones who determine who gets elected in November…mark my words. Both party’s nominees will be pandering to the FBs and flippers as much as possible with “stimulus packages”, bailouts, and foreclosure postponements to buy themselves a few swing votes.
I sort of disagree. Many of the flippers and FB’s are not Florida residents. For every Florida voter convinced to vote for a candidate because of promises of a bailout, four voters like me will be convinced NOT to vote for that candidate. There are many, many of us that believe development has ruined Florida, and want speculators to be hung out to dry.
I live in Florida, and you is wrong-o.
Most of Florida is either just getting here or looking to get out. The ones just getting here are sick of flipper prices, and the ones looking to get out just want to get out.
Find me one fokked Florida homeowner who is actually interested in living in this state for the next 30 years and I’ll show you an alligator living in the Everglades, where they are not making any more land but they are making plenty more alligators.
I live in Florida too (Broward County) and I love it here. I bought a townhome in 2005 for $295,000 and probably won’t see that number again for another 10 years, but I have a fixed mortgage at 5.75% and can handle the payment.
Personally I hope the prices drop as my tax bill this year was about $1,000 lower. Love the weather and love the area.
In short, yes the prices here got insane and many will be burnt, but while I’m in shorts and looking at the weather section of the USA Today and seeing 30 degrees in most of the country I personally couldln’t live anywhere else.
It’s nice to see Florida’s market start become less crazy for none other than it will stem the tide of refugees flooding my parent’s state ( TN) and turning it into another Florida.
To keep Floridians away, they already have the (now) overpriced housing thing working for them, but TN is also going to have to increase taxes and come up with a series of natural disasters that raise insurance tenfold. They should get TN’s Al Gore and Fred Thompson working on that, since the president thing ain’t gonna happen for them.
Texas and Tennessee, both no income tax states like Florida, have very high sales taxes and in Texas’s case high property taxes. Older people with low income might do better avoiding no-state-income-tax states.
“‘We as Realtors have two choices,’ said Rojas. ‘We can tell clients what they want to hear. Or we can tell them the truth: Values have dropped.
Now they start telling the truth, because they have to get sales & commissions going. Motivated self interest strikes again.
Some clients get so mad when I tell them what their home is really worth that they won’t even call me back.’”
Probably because you told them their house was worth so much more a year ago when you sold it to them.
“‘We as Realtors have two choices,’ said Rojas. ‘We can tell clients what they want to hear. Or we can tell them the truth: Values have dropped. Some clients get so mad when I tell them what their home is really worth that they won’t even call me back.’”
i wonder if the people he is talking about really do believe that sales pitch “RE only goes up”. they just wont let it go.
Never Fear Florida…
Suzanne RESEARCHED this
I truly believe that realtors can become good allies for lower pricing, just as they were bad enemies for higher pricing, because they would rather make 6% of $200,000 than 0% of $400,000. I think it’ll take some time, but the message is sinking in, and they will reinforce it with FB’s. Granted, there will be a lot of knife-catching along the way.
“The two other foreclosure suits against Kuhn were filed in late December by Illinois companies. One involves the mortgage on Kuhn’s Lake Butler home in Windermere;…‘Cameron is not happy about it, but he’s not curled up into a fetal position,’ said Griff Winthrop.”
Either Cameron is bunking with Griff, or he is living in a van down by the river. Either way, he maintains a positive outlook.
“‘At the end of the day, who are you going to sell those units to? You need real buyers,’ Winston said. ‘People may scour around for bargains here and there, but if they aren’t going to live in the property, they’ll still have to hold it.’”
And there it is. Real buyers means occupants. End users. Home owners, not investors. Property values will fall, until it makes economic sense for these “real buyers” to take the plunge. Look at local incomes and price-to-rent-ratio’s to determine what this end-point is.
Cash-flow investors- landlords, not speculators- are your other possible end-user. Once again, look at the local rental rates, and it’s pretty easy to crunch the numbers and figure out where, price wise, it will make sense for them to jump in.
I still say south FL will fall to $70/foot and north FL to $45/foot. Comments?
Florida Math, from the News Press Article:
“There are few houses being built and there are about 15,000 houses listed for sale by real estate agents in the county.
But Brady Starling, president of Lehigh Acres-based DSD Homes, said he thinks the market is absorbing houses quickly enough that 2008 will see the glut largely evaporate by year’s end.
Including sales without real estate agents, about 1,000 single-family homes a month are selling”.
So you take the number of real-estate agent listed houses only, and divide that by houses sold with and WITHOUT real estate agents, and get a number?
Already, he noted, two people making $8.25 an hour each can typically afford a 30-year mortgage on a $150,000 house.
Let’s see - $8.25 x 2 people x 40 hours/week x 52 weeks = $34,320. $34,320/.36 (max mortgage to income ratio) = $95,333. Where’s is the extra $55,000 coming from?
It’s bull. Ive been told I could “afford” a $200k home on a $30k income I make being self employed. I told them I would not feel comfortable spending more than $50k to $60k on a home.
If banks lend 7x income, they will lose because most of those people will walk away when it means the difference between paying the mortgage or buying food for their children.
Even Pittsburgh’s price is on the high end for me. If there’s few decent houses for around $50k, ill just settle in Oil City/Franklin and ride this insanity for a few years then relocate or buy a nice big house with multiacreage in NW PA.
One thing you might also want to consider are prefab homes. Some of the newer models look almost exactly like a house, and probably just as nice. If I were making 30k per year ( which I did for years)and wanted land and a place of my own, I’d buy some raw land outside a minor metro area ( like Pittsburgh) buy a used single wide trailer, live in it until I had enough money to buy another house or build my own. You can buy log cabin kits for under 50k unfurnished. Believe it or not, my parents did exactly that. They lived in a trailer on 14 acres of land for 4 years and later built a two story rancher. Took them awhile, but they now live comfortably.
By the way, you aren’t referring to Franklin,TN are you? That area is extremely overpriced.
First of all does anyone really believe that 1,000 houses are selling a month? Second, how many foreclosures are being added to that inventory every month? And third, what happens to the inventory when all those FBs put a massive number of listings back on the market this spring.
His analysis doesn’t even consider half the picture.
Them rebates checks are a coming. Gotta factor them in too.
Hey Leigh,
$134,900
3 Bed, 2 Bath
974 Sq. Ft.
4327 S 12th St
Sheboygan, WI 53081
MLS ID# 977170
This price is a major joke!
$129,900
3 Bed, 1 Bath
894 Sq. Ft.
another ripoff!
$124,900
4 Bed, 2 Bath
1,515 Sq. Ft.
4 plus bedrooms, 2 full baths, only $124,900!! haha ripoff!
You could live in a safe Pittsburgh suburb for considerabily cheaper! The fact he wants $375k for 23 acres shows how much of a ripoff it is!
I can get 23 acres for around $100k in Pennsylvania!
You do live on east Wiscousin, zone 5a and your winters are 3-5 degrees colder than Oil City. Remarkabily similar weather thanks to the great lake moderating effect of east WI.
If this land is in a rural location and not within 5 miles to the nearest big town for shopping, I wouldn’t pay over $2000/acre. If it’s close to a big town, make it $4000/acre. 23 acres should cost less than $100k, preferably $50k.
How big and nice is the house and all following outbuildings? If it’s an old house, I wouldn’t pay over $30/foot for the house and buildings combined. If you get 3000 square feet of buildings(including the house itself) that’s $90k. So his $375k price could be worth around $150k.
I will check that area of WI, it will have to be significently cheaper than NW Pennsylvania cause the long harsh winters means less growing days and difficult conditions. I am still curious how you deal with that winter. Why did you choose WI over PA?
Wanna talk ripoffs? Well one of the ‘cheapest’ houses near where we live in the East Bay of SF,CA is 700 square feet, 2 bedroom, no upgrades, tiny yard, and priced at $450,000.
Bye Fla…
Would you buy the stupid house in Pittsburgh, and stop wasting precious bandwidth, please?
Bye FL,
Took a short break–not sure if you’ll see this.
We chose WI because we have more family here. We’re retired AF, and we are very close to our family.
PA is a Commonwealth. It is a beautiful state, but I think Wisconsin is beautiful in a different way.
I think they’re asking 357Kish. That’s a wishing price. I’ll know more about them finacially before we even step a foot on the property.
And of course, those prices listed in a few examples you listed above are also wishing prices. WI is just getting the memo on the housing downturn, and they’re a bit more stubborn here!
Leigh
new florida catch-phrase, “all recessions are local”
The NAR is at it again… better hurry and buy now or you’ll miss the oncoming boom!
“This will have a big, immediate impact, especially in California where sales have been down most significantly,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
“The 1 percent drop is a huge factor,” said Yun. “In California, it could create a mini-boom.”
http://tinyurl.com/3xborz
This post was referring to the raise in the conforming loan limit.
What’s missing here is the acutal median figure for Palm Beach County. For December it was $337,900. This is WAY under the over $400,000 that we saw in 2005. The real estate industry won’t be able to hide behind the median prices for too much longer. Let’s look at what is selling, the very high end homes on and near Palm Beach. These numbers are figured into the median throwing it off.
Today you can go buy a brand new home in a desireable neighborhood for under $300,000. There’s nothing “median” about it. If it’s existing homes you seek, nice homes in existing neighborhoods are running less than $100 per square foot.
Hey Bad Andy….. do you think houses in Mirasol will start selling for around $400,000 in the near future. There appears to be a ton of inventory and if you look at the pictures there are many empty houses that are owned by speculators.
I was playing golf there last month and one of the people in the foursome said he has some friends who were holding 3 and 4 houses each. No only do these people have to pay the mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA fees, utilities, and pool cleaning they also have to pay $1000 a month in club dues for each house. OUCH. I think it is only a matter of time before there are many foreclosures and then the banks will begin dumping houses at firesale prices. What do you think considering you live in the area. Thanks. Michael
“do you think houses in Mirasol will start selling for around $400,000 in the near future.”
$430,000 is the minimum home listed there right now. There are still a lot of dreamers in Mirasol. It doesn’t help that most people in the development have money. I would say that $400,000 is possible in the near future and the bottom will be even lower…it will just take them longer to find it.
Thanks. Where did you find one for $430,000. Can you give me the listing.
Please show me where in Palm Beach County(I live there) can one get a house for $100/foot? Prices aren’t there yet. Ive seen some for around $130/foot
“Please show me where in Palm Beach County(I live there) can one get a house for $100/foot? Prices aren’t there yet. Ive seen some for around $130/foot.”
Wellington 33414 has a number of 2,000 square feet under air from the 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s for $210,000 and under.
Royal Palm Beach 33411 has homes in the 1500 under air for $150K…these are tough to find but out there.
Unincorporated West Palm Beach 33415 has homes in the 1600 square feet range for $160K. You know as well as I do it’s very hit and miss in this particular area.
The average price is $150/foot. Those “cheap” homes are probably fixer uppers and in questionable neighboorhoods. Big progress will be made when nice middle class homes fall below $100/foot. There are few houses in Palm Beach County that I would touch that can be had for under $250k and I wouldn’t live in any $150k house if you gave me free rent *shudder*
“Existing single-family homes are selling for $43,200 less than a year ago in Martin and St. Lucie counties, but Realtors say things may be looking up.”
Just to funny. I have several contacts still in the TC market and not only is it bad but, its falling like a rock. Homes that were selling for $240,000 in 2005 are now selling for $140,000 and still falling.
So, that’s what the Realtors mean by looking up! They want to avoid falling rocks.
The Pendl’s said, they didn’t want to give their money away…
I think they are mistaken…..”"”"THEY ALREADY DID….GIVE THEIR MONEY AWAY>>>>When they bought the house for $322K in 6/’05…
Previous buyer, paid $205K in 2002….
They bought into the peak of the market, and want to unload it on somebody else…
Tell me….WHERE IS THE GREATER FOOL THEORY WHEN YOU NEED IT????
Nice. Clever point-of-view.
Last weekend I drove through downtown Tampa both nights and looked up at Skypoint, which had only a handful of lights on. Then I looked a couple of blocks over, at yet another tower under construction. What tremendous ugly monuments to ego, greed and stupidity we have built.
They are ugly, aren’t they? I wonder who the architects are? The stuff in Channelside looks like Proletariate housing from the old Soviet Union, built in the middle of a toxic waste site.
The ones I am talking about are not the Channelside towers, but the ones right off Ashley Drive near the Tampa Theatre building. Actually they look quite phallic.
How fitting for city full of D–CKS.
Hilarious!!
You mean “Element - resort-style living starting in the $200’s” I drive by that craphole every day on my way to work. I’m always nervous that one of the troglodyte crane operators is going to drop a steel beam on my car as I sit at the light at Cass. The sales center is on Franklin Street - I’ve never seen anyone in it. Although I did sit at one of their little tables out front the other day to put a Band-Aid on the blister on my foot. Very convenient. The $200K units are like 300 sq ft. Good luck with that. I’m waiting for them to change the banner to “Element - resort-style living starting in the $50’s”
Isn’t a resort supposed to be somewhere beautiful, with beautiful scenery, and lots of stuff to do? How does this translate to a dump in middle of a bigger dump, where the only thing to do is dodge bullets and panhandlers? I seriously believe most of this junk will be bought by the city or county and used for Section 8 housing. After all, that’s all that was there before the developers showed up.
“In the Bay area, he said, prices have dropped about 11 percent since peaking in mid-2006. He predicts they will fall by as much as 18 percent more. ‘Sellers in Tampa have been reluctant to slice prices, and that’s why the inventory is so high,’ Lafakis said.”
People who are trying to sell their homes are in denial in the Tampa Bay area. Part of the problem is the media in the past kept citing the prices will not drop so the sellers are holding off lowering their prices. The realtors have been telling people to remove their properties from listing, but that only makes the matter worse.
What the real reason is and the St. Petersburg times finally got it right is the incomes are not in-line with housing prices and rental costs. Home prices have a long ways to fall in the Tampa Bay area before they become affordable. A realtor friend who has been in the business more than 30 years that out of his last 5 sales, only one closed because the banks rejected the others because their closing price exceeded more than 3 times their income. He stated that the banks informed him that they are only writing loans that are in-line with incomes.
That picture in the Tampa Trib article was taken on a street three blocks from my house. They missed an even better photo-op a couple of blocks from that where three of the four houses on one corner are for sale, in addition to four others on those blocks. About four blocks away from that, three of my dead landlord’s houses are in foreclosure. This is in Palma Ceia, which is an established (1920’s-1940’s) neighborhood with very little new construction.
Did you post a comment on the Tribune site? I see the first letter there is from someone angry at the Press for reporting the bubble’s collapse. A bunch of wisecracks from some the witty posters on this blog might have an excellent effect.
No, I haven’t posted yet. I like Shannon Behnken though. Her reports for the most part tell it like it is.
Don’t forget to post on the sptimes.com, money, (un)real estate. Interesting comments on this site. I will be posting on the Tampatrib site this weekend.
Too many housing shills on both of those sites. Most people here still do not have a clue, and believe that houses are affordable. My buddy lives in New Port Richey, and is convinced his house (already underwater by $50k) is the investment of a lifetime. I cannot imagine living that far out.
Looks like it’s right next to Bayshore. When I lived over there, I used to love running/walking/biking/blading up and down that street. The water stinks (sometimes), but it’s pretty : )…
Jill Goodman, who with her husband is trying to sell the four-bedroom, four-bath house and guest cottage they’ve owned for six years in Fort Myers for $729,000. They bought it in 2001 for $262,900.”
A perfect example of the problem in Florida. That house is only worth less than half of what they are asking and it will sit on the market until the seller prices it correctly. The realtor should have never listed this property.
“A perfect example of the problem in Florida.”
Preach on! If they bought for $262,900 and the peak value was $729K (assumes that’s what it might have brought in previously) if they would have just priced at $450,000 they would have walked away with a hefty profit and a quick sale. Greed will get you nowhere in the end. When they have a bank authorized short sale for $199,000 they will be sorry.
When they have a bank authorized short sale for $199,000 they will be sorry.
I modified your sentance just a little:
When they have a bank authorized sale for $199,000 they will be screwed!
On the ground in PBC (Wellington). I listed my TH in September for 20% off peak prices and had 1 visitor/wk but no offers. Dropped another 10% in November. Result… no lookers in December and a grand total of 1 in January. I can’t compete with the foreclosures at more than 50% off peak. Who’s buying non-foreclosure houses in PBC?
Tell your mortgage company to give you a shortsale to yourself and then get cheaper financing from someone else?
‘My husband and I agree that we are not going to give this house away,’ she said.’
They won’t have to give it away, it will be taken away by the bank in due time!
Fuzzy; It’s double jeoprardy….they paid $322K “”CASH”" for it..
They might be able to get out with their skin, BUT, they want somebody elses, INSTEAD….
It looks like they will now have less cash when they do sell it for less.
if you dont like what pelosi is doing,
call her
here’s the numbers
District Office - 450 Golden Gate Ave. - 14th Floor - San Francisco, CA 94102 - (415) 556-4862
Washington, D.C. Office - 235 Cannon HOB - Washington, DC 20515 - (202) 225-4965
Hey, that’s the same information I get when I look up the listing for Satan! What the?
Jill Goodman bought in 2001 for $262,000.
Jill Goodman wanted $1.1 million.
Jill Goodman now wants $729,000.
In other words, Jill is saying “I won the lotto! I don’t care if it was a scam lotto! I want my money! I want my money!”
Honey, calm down. It was a scam lotto. Your ticket isn’t worth anything. The perps (mortgage brokers and realtors) have long gone. Take some deep breaths and repeat after me. “I thought I was being smart but I got ripped off. I thought I was smart but I got ripped off…..”
However, if you’ve read this far, truth is Jill Goodman will still come out okay unless she has re-fied and re-fied and re-fied. In most areas, anyone who bought in 2001 and before and intends to stay put for a few years are reasonably safe. I figure she will probably get between $400,000 and $500,000 by the time the dust settles.
She might get $400k today but in two years prices will be below 2001 levels.
You could well be right but at some point “the herd” will turn, encouraged by government propaganda, NAR propaganda, Wall Street propaganda, banking manipulation of financing (not sure how they will do that) and media propaganda. I was just watching the CNBC Business Comedy Show. They had 4 realtors. All gung-ho (surprise!) and spouting the usual realtor mantra (Now is a good time to buy). Of course it isn’t but when Joe Sixpack hears realtors saying (as one did), “My phone is ringing off the hook with inquires,” Joe Sixpack starts listening with one ear. Not two ears yet but the seeds of manipulation are already being sown by government.
How long will it be before we see a brand new Federal government housing agency I wonder? Fannie and Freddie are tainted so another “clean” agency will be formed, “To help the American people continue to live the American dream and buy affordable housing.”
They have a lot of weapons which they haven’t moved up to the front line yet. Think “Partnership With America”, type of crap. Tax breaks. Subsidized mortgage payments. Federal guarantees, etc. Sadly, America Joe Sixpack is so brain washed he will never get it.
You could well be right but at some point “the herd” will turn, encouraged by government propaganda, NAR propaganda, Wall Street propaganda, banking manipulation of financing (not sure how they will do that) and media propaganda.
I would agree, but the banks are being very strict on their underwriting and appraisals and the attempts to start this mess up again is failing despite the push.
The herd is broke right now.
Assuming a very generous 7% annual appreciation, they should be VERY happy getting $420k for this property in 2008, assuming no big improvements.
Unfortunately, due to the overshoot effect of the housing collapse, IF they really plan to sell this year they will probably be lucky to get more than about $350k.
Why do they feel entitled to $300k or more OVER the real value? Probably because they never saved anything over their lifetimes and now need someone else to fund their retirement. This story will be repeated over and over as a certain generation begins to retire and needs to “get theirs”.
I bought a house in 2001, and would be very happy with 5% annual appreciation (if I wanted to sell now), 1.41 times what I paid.
Someone else posted above that those fools HELOCed their house. In that case, they probably will walk away within two years. Then someone will buy it from the bank for $175k
az_owner
Your 7% is indeed very generous, the long term price appreciation in FL is only a tad above 5%, about the same as AZ. Don’t count the bubble years you are ready to factor in the downside too.
From the Miami Herald article:
”Wow, that’s a big drop,” said Lucas Lechuga, a real estate agent with EWM who specializes in condo sales. “Buyers should see that the market is coming down or has already come down.”
In other words, get it together buyers. You have the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to not buy at the highest price. In some cases you can save 10 or even 20% from earlier prices.
These people just don’t get it. It’s not a price correction, it’s the end of life as you know it.
Hey Paul!
I keep meaning to say I’m sorry about posting the other day in response to your post. I just read your post without looking to see who had posted it and I thought is was a realtor or mortgage broker “troll”. I didn’t realize it was satirical. Sorry about that.
Mike
Right, now I remember the one. No worries.
“There are many, many of us that believe development has ruined Florida, and want speculators to be hung out to dry.”
HELL to the yes. I want the spracrete cowboys to burn. They tore down like five blocks of perfectly serviceable old retail and single family crap in midtown Gainesville (and some of it wasn’t crap, some of it was those awesome old chert houses we used to have a ton of in saner days) in order to build a SUPERSPACESTARBUCKSMULTIUSEHOOKAHBARANDTITTYCLUBCONDOMINIUMPLEASUREVILLAGE for the mythical GIANT HERD OF STUDENTS that is year upon year predicted to come blasting in here to attend the flagship university and save us all from ruin. This dream mushroom has failed to materialize and what once was appropriately priced student housing, Eckerds, Burrito Brothers, and the single decent bookstore in town is now salted earth with a big chainlink fence around it and a pretty “coming soon” sign. No bailouts for the bastards. They have spent the last twenty years in a concerted campaign to erect expensive craploads that make my eyes bleed. Burnnnnnn in endless poverty, you bastards.
(of course it will never happen.)
“Development” ruined Florida? Would that be Mr. or Ms. Development?
Listen up, Floridans. You ruined Florida, by electing corrupt, incompetent politicians from the Governor (you know who) right down to the local level, who had one and only one priority, to let their developer friends make as much money as possible.
And let’s not ever forget, it was your state that put you know who in the White House in 2000. So now you have a state that’s as ugly as you are. Enjoy it.
YOGURT:
Nice words…I agree 100%…the only difference is I’d applied to the entire USA….people in this country deserve every single of pain and suffering they are getting and are going to get…if not more.
While Americans laugh at people like the French for telling THEIR government what they want and how they want it, the French (and the rest of the world) is laughing at us because we’ve got our pants dropped around our ankles and are bent over 90 degrees…I’d be laughing too but unfortunately I’ve got to still live the idiots here.
Well, most of the local politicians in South Florida are democrats, and the locals make all the decisions regarding zoning and development. And I thank God that we elected George Bush in 2000, rather than that spineless wimp Al Gore. We’d all be hiding under our desks, waiting for the weekly terrorist attack on American soil.
i just want my job back and buy american. thank you g w bush!
If you don’t vote for us the terrrrrrists will get us….. then we’ll bring in them thar gays ya know….They’ll sneek in your bedroom at nite…. then the communists will pour over the border and they’ll bring you socialised medicine!!!! BOOO!!!!
In exactly what perfect place with an all-knowing and super intelligent populace do you reside?
Excellent rage, Kandy Kane. I like your style. If that junk never gets built, you can tell those folks to come on down to good ole Tampa for their titty bar fix. This is the land of milk and honey.
A friend of mine sent me this…seems like another scare tactics crap journalism.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/HomeMortgageSavings/WhyYouWillNeverOwnAHome.aspx
A pathetic article. Cry me a river. A professional couple in San Francisco, and their combined income is under $100k?! They picked the wrong fields, that’s for sure. Switch jobs, or switch cities.
And then there are the ignorant ones:
The online calculators that every real-estate site offers indicated that, after tax deductions, a mortgage in our price range would cost the same as our $2,500 monthly rent. Unfortunately, those tax savings never completely kicked in, and we had to close that gap every month — for us, about $700.
What do they mean the tax savings “never kicked in”? Huh? WTF? Or they just didn’t do their own figuring before they made the biggest purchase of their life.
And all this handwringing about not being able to afford a house when you are young really, really irks me. I couldn’t afford one, either, when I was young, and that was when houses were what they called affordable! It didn’t kill me. In fact, it had that best of benefits for a young, motivated worker: I was flexible to move quickly to a new location and new city for my career. Owning a house when I was in my 20’s would have been a bad financial move as far as the career ladder goes.
And the article concetrates ont eh most expensive 2% of American cities! It does have Scottsdale Bubble City, AZ thrown in for balance, though:
Scottsdale, Ariz., where 55-year-old Linda Sirois frets that her son’s generation won’t be able to mirror her own family’s success. Sirois’ son, at 29, has many of the trappings of middle-class life — a nice car, an iPod.
A nice car! An iPod! Dude, I make good money, I have a decent but not elegant house, but I do NOT have a nice (new) car, nor even an iPod. I could probably afford that, but then again, not squandering money on that stuff over the long term is why I own a house now. Jeez! I wonder if the silly boy even lives at home with his mum.
“‘We as Realtors have two choices,’ said Rojas. ‘We can tell clients what they want to hear. Or we can tell them the truth: Values have dropped. Some clients get so mad when I tell them what their home is really worth that they won’t even call me back.’”
While I applaud Mr. Rojas for saying the comment above FOR NOW….I really wonder what true test of character we can see of him when the boom was going on? I’m sure he was telling his clients “what they wanted to hear.”
Does anyone get the feeling that the real price of homes in the Los Angeles, Glendale/Burbanl/Pasadena area is being held artificially high? Fake pricing? False claims? And just overall fear from realtors to clients that “Glendale hasn’t lost any value so you’ll lose the place if you lowball?”
The one big difference between the city of angles and other nouveau bubble locales, is that there really wasn’t much land to build on that hadn’t been exploited, already…
That being said, I believe it will prove to be the Hell-OC capital of the country, houses became the !st National Bank Of Your Home, in lieu of actually having a job, for many.
Does anyone get the feeling that the real price of homes in the Los Angeles, Glendale/Burbanl/Pasadena area is being held artificially high?
Denial. That and BofA still has zero down loans on verifiable income up to $1M. Credit is still too lose. Oh, nothing like 2005, but also nothing like what it should be; give it another year to season. Then another year for the killer price declines. I’m convinced the nicest areas of the US will drop 20% to 30% in 2009. Yes. NATIONALLY. See that will be as Spain is collapsing and post the Shanghai stock market collapse. At that point, the talk of ‘foreign buyers’ will be a joke. They’ll be net sellers of US real estate.
Got popcorn?
Neil
As overvalued as U.S. assets are, European ones are worse. France, Spain, the U.K., Italy - they’re all going to see big recessions. And as volatile as the U.S., it’s nothing compared to what’s going in Asia, especially Hong Kong and Shanghai. The rallies are opportunities to sell FOREIGN stocks more than American ones.
You can’t hold back a rapidly rising tide and there will even be a type of gloom and tension at the Olympics in some ways reminiscent of Berlin 1936.
Ever since the corp’s took over the Olympics, i’ve watched a total of an hour or so of it.
Neil,
I hope you are right…I’ve read briefly that Spain is a bloodbath.
Nobody ever expects the Spanish Liquidation…
What does everyone think of the Vancouver, CA housing market? What do you think will happen there?
Read this article….
http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix/news/business/story.html?id=6891d3a7-03dd-43dc-b3e2-0d49c411b509&p=1
“One homeowner trying to sell said she’s still hoping to get a good price. ‘I don’t know. Look at the market. But we’ve got 2 acres. How much lower do we go?’ said Jill Goodman, who with her husband is trying to sell the four-bedroom, four-bath house and guest cottage they’ve owned for six years in Fort Myers for $729,000. They bought it in 2001 for $262,900.”
Low enough that someone else (not you) decides it’s priced right.
People actually think that it’s either over supply or low demand, but never the price, as if they’re all independent variables. Some dodo at work thinks this was. “It’s either they’ve built too many or there’s just no demand there. They’re obviously priced right.” Actual quote, this is how these morons think.
Speculators should not make up more than 10% of the market IMO. Lenders approving 40% low down speculation buys in any area is pure mad hatter lending . I wonder if the the computer program for risk computed for proper ratios for “type of purchases “. But ,I guess the Wall Street boys figured they would make more money on the short term investor who had to pay the pre-pay on the toxic loan .
It is so wonderful seeing the narrative on this site go from what it was two years ago, to the way it plays out today. Just wonderful to see everyone’s predictions of sane stable house prices finally starting to come to a reality. Like most, the only surprise has been the slow pace of the bust. gordo