The Housing Bubble

A report from the Coloradoan. “The number of city building permits pulled for new homes, duplexes and condos in Loveland dropped 37 percent in 2007, reflecting a national trend of a slumping home building industry. The 2007 numbers mark a dramatic 68 percent decline when compared with 2004, when residential building permits spiked to 923. ‘Business is way down,’ said David Keirns, owner of Keirns Construction Co. in Loveland.”

“Keirns maintained a steady number of new starts through 2006 until things began to slip in 2007, and now, that’s spilling into 2008.”

“‘Residential is doing the same thing here (in Fort Collins),’ said Delynn Coldiron, who compiles the permitting data for the city of Fort Collins. ‘The last couple years have been the sharpest decrease. There has been a pretty sharp decrease in single-family attached and detached.’”

“Home sales are at a 30 percent to 40 percent cancellation rate locally, meaning people want to buy up, but they can’t sell their existing homes, said Joe Knopinski, VP of neighborhood development for McWhinney Enterprises. ‘Our basic problem in Colorado is that people are interested in moving up (to a new home), but they are worried that they can’t sell their house,’ Knopinski said.”

The Arizona Republic. “Look for the downturn in metropolitan Phoenix’s home-building market to mirror the run-up of a few years ago. So the difference between the spike during the boom and the slowing now will be similar.”

“Housing analyst RL Brown said the build-up of new-home inventory through speculation and home-buyer cancellations will cut into future building this year ‘beyond.’”

“‘It has been a long time since we last had to deal with a market disrupted by inventory overages and low consumer confidence, a market where populations weren’t almost standing in line to buy new and resale homes,’ Brown said.”

“‘The five-year builder lot strategy has turned into a humbling nightmare,’ Brown said. ‘Bonuses have gone. Wink-wink financing is no more. Local governments are panicked as revenues from growth vanish. Appraisals are very problematic. The ‘my home ATM’ has closed. Cold realty is at hand.’”

“Brown said he, the industry and in some cases even the Federal Reserve had to learn some new words during the past year. Risk: It ‘denotes a potentially negative impact on an asset’ and ‘tends to be ignored during periods of euphoria,’ he said.”

“Market value: ‘The price an asset would trade at a pure auction or garage sale.’ Appraised value: ‘This is a term that has become really problematic in today’s environment.’”

“Scottsdale’s last major planned community is continuing to build and sell new homes, although the pace is slower than what might have been expected a few years ago. In the past year, Toll Brothers has sold 176 homes at Windgate Ranch.”

“That is nearly 30 percent of the roughly 600 homes planned for the community that borders the McDowell Sonoran Preserve.”

“‘People are worried about selling their home and getting the equity out of it,’ said Mark Bailey, a Toll Brothers assistant VP. ‘Nobody is objecting to the pricing.’”

“The smallest homes at Windgate start at $636,975, or about $277 per square foot. The base price for the largest models is $1.5 million, or about $238 per square foot.”

“Toll has indefinitely suspended construction of its 62-unit townhouse project downtown. But the company continues work on its 6-story condominium there and is still building at Windgate Ranch.”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “In the first few weeks of January, the number of properties entering foreclosure shot past the number of Valley home sales during the same period. About 4,000 properties entered the foreclosure process, and nearly 1,600 others were actually foreclosed on, compared with roughly 2,600 sales of new and existing homes, according to Information Market.”

“It’s not a pretty picture, said Tom Ruff, a partner at the Glendale-based company. ‘You have declining prices,’ he said. ‘That’s what’s causing it. No equity, no options.’”

“In 2005 and 2006, Valley homebuyers took out 244,839 mortgages, 36 percent of which had adjustable rates, according to Elliott D. Pollack & Co. Nationwide.”

“In the past, relatively few homes that entered foreclosure proceedings were actually foreclosed on, Rounds said. Today, only 20 percent of homes that enter the process are being rescued from foreclosure, said said Jim Rounds, senior VP of the Scottsdale-based company.”

“Then there’s the massive oversupply of homes for sale, which could take three to five years to work off with a potential 10 percent further drop in home prices and more job losses to come in the local construction industry, he said.”

“During the boom, anyone with a pulse could get a loan, said Warren Potter, senior loan officer with Indymac Bank. ‘Obviously, that was a recipe for disaster,’ Potter said.”

“Many are also watching what’s going to happen in the larger economy, Potter said. ‘If you don’t know if you’re going to be laid off next week, you’re probably not going to be interested in buying a house no matter what the price,’ he said.”

“Real-estate investors‘ headaches can be bargains for people looking to rent in the Southeast Valley fringes. Rental rates on single-family homes in outlying areas of Queen Creek, Maricopa, portions of East Mesa and far southeast Chandler and Gilbert are falling thanks to a poor housing market, abundance of investor-owned houses and high vacancies, local experts say.”

“Three area property managers said some are as low as half what monthly mortgage payments would be on identical homes, and tenants are successfully haggling over rates and lease terms.”

“Steve Urie, owner of Mesa Verde Property Management in Gilbert and a Gilbert Town Council member, said many investors are charging low rents and heavily subsidizing the cost of their properties just to get some help with mortgage payments and avoid foreclosure.”

“All three property managers said they have known investors who collected rents but did not make mortgage payments, a practice that eventually forced the tenants out when the property went into foreclosure. Security deposits paid directly to property owners are also often at risk in foreclosures, the managers said.”

The Arizona Daily Star. “For a couple of months, Miguel León has watched the parking lot at his Midvale Park apartment complex empty out. ‘The parking lot used to be full all the time. Now there’s a lot of empty spaces,’ he said.”

“A lot of apartments are empty, too — a likely indicator of the growing impact of Arizona’s new employer-sanctions law. The departure of foreign workers to other states and to Mexico has combined with the declining housing market to increase vacancies, apartment management executives said.”

“On top of that, the housing slump has increased the supply of rental homes, making them more competitive with higher-end apartments. The slump also has meant fewer jobs for construction workers who might rent apartments”

“The vacancy rate on Tucson’s South Side jumped to 11.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, up from 7.1 percent a year earlier, according to Phoenix-based RealData Inc.”

“Construction worker Julio César Castaños said he has seen a lot of people leaving Tucson to go back to their hometowns in Mexico. Castaños said people leaving have no plans to come back.”

“‘Because of the new law, companies are asking for Social Security numbers, so people have started noticing they can’t get jobs easily, and they prefer to leave,’ he said. He also has noticed workers leaving their apartments without giving notice, he said.”

“‘Besides, people don’t have money to pay the rent because there are no jobs,’ he said. Castaños has lived in the U.S. for eight years, but he is also planning to return to Mexico if the construction industry doesn’t pick up.”

The Yuma Sun from Arizona. “Ron Codling, owner of Kirstin’s Southwest Decor in Yuma, said the economy could be better and they are not getting the crowds they previously had. ‘The housing industry has taken a dive and it’s difficult to get loans now,’ Codling said.”

“In 2006, 800 homes were built in Yuma while only 300 were built last year. One reason fewer homes sold last year could be attributed to speculators who bought them as an investment and that market became saturated, explained Randy Crist, spokesman for the city of Yuma Department of Community Development.”

The Daily Courier from Arizona. “Four groups representing the public and private sectors and nonprofit organizations suggested pblic/private partnerships, higher density and other proposals can help to create more areas for affordable housing for police officers, firefighters, nurses and other people with average incomes.”

“The gathering drew 40 people to the Quailwood subdivision…that housing experts would not consider ‘affordable.” Home prices at Quailwood, in eastern Prescott Valley, range from $201,400 for a 1,619-square-foot, two-bedroom model to $392,400 for a 3,076-square-foot, four-bedroom house, according to literature from the sales office.”

“However, a number of the models are less than the median home price for Prescott of $319,000 for 2007, according to a report from the Governor’s Housing Forum this past September. The report states that a person would need to earn $48.68 an hour to afford the house.”

“The median income for a family of four is $50,000 a year in the county, Kathern Mitchell, executive director of Choices AZ Inc. in Prescott, said during the meeting. Mitchell said she was ‘really excited’ about the number of people who attended. ‘I think the right people were here,’ she said.”

The Arizona Daily Sun. “Mirroring a national trend, house sales in Flagstaff have not just stalled but gone into hibernation. There were just 44 sales of single-family homes in the city listed by the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors. That’s down 25 percent from the same month year ago and 44 percent from December 2005.”

“The once white-hot condo market saw few sales in December, with only 10 townhomes and condos sold.”

“Local Realtors said they are unwilling to draw conclusions about whether the December figures represent a trend in the market, saying the number of sales is too small. Realtor Stephen Brighton said the weather was a factor in the small number of sales.”

“‘It is just hard to try a sell a home when it is snowing,’ said Brighton.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “The housing slump in Las Vegas has been a tough pill to swallow for a lot of people and there’s no way to sugarcoat it, housing analyst Larry Murphy said Thursday.”

“Sales volume plummeted 45 percent in 2007 and median home prices declined for the first time since 1993. Businesses tied to the housing industry have seen sales and revenue drop by 40 percent, he said.”

“‘The good news is it won’t continue to get much worse,’ Murphy told about 500 real estate professionals attending his 2008 Crystal Ball seminar. ‘I think we are very near the bottom of the decline in prices.’”

“Murphy admitted he hasn’t always been right in his market assessments. After 40 percent appreciation in the first six months of 2004, Murphy said it couldn’t go on forever and correctly predicted that prices would plateau. What he did not see coming was another surge in prices in January 2005.”

“Now he sees another plateau, this time on the bottom side.”

“‘We’re pretty much right on track had none of this happened in 2004, 2005 and 2006,’ he said. ‘If you didn’t buy or sell a home during this period, if you owned in 2002, guess what? You’re right on schedule.’”

“The tightening lending market is jeopardizing the ownership of a multibillion-dollar hotel-condominium development under construction on the Strip.”

“The owner of the $3 billion Cosmopolitan confirmed that he received a notice of default from Deutsche Bank after payments on a $760 million construction loan came due.”

“Although Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch have approached MGM Mirage officials about the site, MGM Mirage President Jim Murren said gaming company isn’t interested in the Cosmopolitan project, at least for now.”

“‘It’s not something we’re looking at,’ Murren said. ‘We hope somebody can find a way of fixing this because it doesn’t help the Strip, Las Vegas or us to have a half-finished project sitting there.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Two of the top 20 builders in Las Vegas are in such a financial crunch that a guessing game has started as to which companies will be left standing in Southern Nevada by the end of this year.”

“Last week Tousa Inc., which operates in Las Vegas as Engle Homes, announced it has failed to make its semiannual interest payment due Jan. 15 on less than $200 million in principal and is considering options for restructuring the debt. The builder was ranked 18th in Las Vegas in 2006 with 375 sales.”

“‘I think you can take a list and put it up on the wall and throw darts at it and see who is going to be here next month,’ said Dennis Smith, president of HomeBuilders Research.”

“Something has to give in Las Vegas, said Tim Sullivan, president of Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors. Housing starts are half the amount of two years ago, and in theory that means there should be half of the builders and half of the employees. There are problems because builders aren’t generating the sales needed to pay their land acquisitions debts, Sullivan said.”

“‘Those loans are being called due, and that is putting them in a position where they have to change their business significantly or go out of business,’ Sullivan said. ‘We are not going to see every builder go out of business, but some are going to leave the industry - that goes for public and private (companies) alike.’”

“Even builders in much better positions are laying off employees, a reflection of their financial woes. Pulte Homes laid off 50 employees in Las Vegas last week, sources familiar with the layoff said.”

“It’s a tough time for some to be an office building owner. Local brokerage CB Richard Ellis released its fourth quarter report showing the office market had a vacancy rate of 15.2 percent.”

“‘The underlying fundamentals of the Las Vegas economy remain strong, but the combination of the subprime crisis and overbuilding of office properties have created the perfect storm, causing substantial market softening,’ says Craig Shute, managing director of CB Richard Ellis’ Las Vegas office.”

“In 2007, 3 million square feet of space came on line, up from the 1.2 million Las Vegas averaged since 2000. That expansion isn’t expected to slow down this year with another 3 million square feet hitting the market.”

“Tenant concessions such as free rent and tenant improvement allowances will be at their highest level in 10 years, Shute says. As a result, that should help hold down construction during the next 12 to 18 months, he says.”

“Construction was the big job loser with employment falling 2,500 from October to November. The construction industry has lost 7,300 jobs in the past 12 months as the housing industry has shown no signs of improvement, the Nevada Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department department reported.”

The Nevada Appeal. “Nevada’s housing trends closed out 2007 with some of the most dismal numbers in recent history, according to a report by RealtyTrac.”

“But there was some good news: The most recent foreclosure numbers, while increasing by about 200 homes on average from this time last year here, bumps Nevada down from the top spot to No. 2 in the nation. Colorado leapfrogged Nevada.”

“Local Realtors said they are not wholly laying blame on their counterparts in the lending industry. ‘I don’t think there’s any animosity toward (lenders),’ said Art Angelo, a Realtor who has been selling real estate in the area since 1980. ‘I think it’s a shame that some people got loans that shouldn’t have gotten a loan.’”

“‘You can’t blame it all on the lenders. Everybody got excited about owning their piece of the American Dream. If you look at it closely, these individuals thought their income would adjust to meet (the mortgage). It didn’t. I wouldn’t pile up on the lenders though - everyone piled up on the bandwagon,’ Angelo said.”

“That the housing inventory is being given time to ‘catch up’ to what the market will bear is a good thing, Angelo said, even though he shared empathy with those who make their living doing construction.”

“‘Essentially, we’re all in the same boat,’ he said. ‘When the industry’s down - it’s down across the board. I think the first six months of ‘08 will get even worse, until we absorb some of that housing inventory, but I think overall this will be a short-term trend. I think that you got to kind of hang in there and ride out the market. Real estate still is the best investment you have.’”

“Others decried the practices of predatory lenders within their field - especially upstarts in Southern Nevada.”

“‘I can’t speculate too much on what happened (in Las Vegas),” said Carson broker Debra Nevins. ‘But rumor has it there were many just horrible, horrible scams going on in Vegas. If those rumors are true, that greatly contributed to (foreclosure) numbers.’”

“‘Here in Northern Nevada, it’s a different kind of market, a different place. I do think we have some more of that down-home attitude,’ she said.”