Sellers Are Willing To Give Away The Farm In California
Inside Bay Area reports from California. “Steve Fernandes held an ‘Open House’ on a recent Saturday morning…on a cold, hazy Central Valley day. Fernandes had two interested parties that stopped by looking over the four-bedroom, three-bath, 3,176-square-foot Centex home. But Fernandes, a broker, wasn’t selling the home. He’s renting it out for $1,995 a month.”
“Fernandes said that he has been contacted by several people who want him to rent their homes in nearby Mountain House, a master-planned community near Tracy made up of 14 neighborhoods built by Lennar Corp., Pulte Homes and Centex Homes.”
“‘Mainly, it’s to help pay the mortgage,’ he said. ‘They don’t want to sell right now, and they can’t afford to hold onto the property.’”
“Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the ‘market will come back.’ ‘When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive,’ he said.”
“The renters, a large portion escaping foreclosure, are willing to pay $2,000 to $3,000 a month for a new house in the same neighborhood or school district for half of a mortgage payment.”
“Robin Chatham, a Brentwood real estate agent, said that it’s the individual owners who are renting out the properties, not banks. ‘They (banks) don’t want the liability,’ she said. ‘They want to sell it quickly and don’t want a tenant.’”
“Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.”
The Contra Costa Times. “A South Bay home builder, put off by the sluggish economy and the housing slump, has backed out of a deal to buy the former Oak Park Elementary School site from Contra Costa County.”
“SummerHill Homes of Palo Alto bid $22 million in June for the 10-acre property in Pleasant Hill and planned to build as many as 96 single-family homes. SummerHill had paid $400,000 to hold the option when it notified the county in December that it did not want to proceed with the purchase.”
“A spokeswoman who declined to give her name said the company ‘terminated the contract due to current economic conditions.’”
The Press Democrat. “Construction of new homes in Sonoma County fell to the lowest level in more than a decade last year as builders scaled back in the face of slumping sales and declining prices. The price of a typical new home has dropped 19.1 percent, according to The Gregory Group.”
“Forecasts call for Sonoma County housing starts to be 800 to 1,000 this year. That would be the lowest total in the 20 years the building trade group has tracked new construction.”
“‘That really does give you an idea of the depth of the problem. It reflects very weak demand,’ said Steve Cochrane, regional economist. ‘We’ve never seen a glut quite like what we have today.’”
“Ryder Homes, a longtime county builder, began selling at its Countryside subdivision in southwest Santa Rosa last year and expected to close out the 39-home project within the year. So far, 21 have been built and 15 sold, said David Hunter, Ryder’s construction director in Sonoma County.”
“Sales also were slower than expected at Willows Wild, a 14-home Sonoma subdivision Ryder also expected to complete last year. So far, seven have been built and three sold, Hunter said.”
“‘The bottom isn’t here yet,’ he said.”
The Sacramento Bee. “The city of Sacramento this month will give pink slips to at least 16 workers, the first wave of severe cutbacks for a municipality grappling with an estimated $55 million budget deficit next fiscal year.”
“‘It’s painful to go through this,’ said City Manager Ray Kerridge said. ‘But I would be lying if I didn’t say some warm bodies are going to leave the city’s employment.’”
“‘To my knowledge, we’ve never before laid off anyone,’ said Assistant City Manager Marty Hanneman.”
“‘Unfortunately, these layoffs could have been averted had the city been more fiscally responsible and had the foresight to see the impending downturn and commercial real estate market,’ the Union representatives from Stationary Engineers Local 39 news release stated.”
The Modesto Bee. “Diablo Grande, the luxury golf resort in the hills of western Stanislaus County, is in financial trouble and has closed its two golf courses.”
“To date, the two acclaimed golf courses, about 400 homes and a production winery have been built. The rest remains on paper.”
“The clubhouse doors were locked Wednesday, and signs were posted saying the golf courses were off-limits. ‘We are in a temporary suspension mode. We don’t know how long it will last,’ said Dwain Sanders, VP of development at the resort. ‘We are feeling the effect of the housing market, just like everyone else. We aren’t getting enough revenue to keep them open during the downturn.’”
“Sam Gardali, who along with his wife bought a second home in the resort to take advantage of the golf courses, said he wasn’t happy with how the course closures will affect property values at Diablo Grande.”
“‘Those are two beautiful golf courses; we love to play them,’ he said. ‘That’s one of the reasons we decided to purchase a second home up there.’”
The Press Telegram. “A former aerospace facility being developed as one of Southern California’s largest commercial projects may not include housing as planned…largely to poor conditions in the housing market.”
“Up to 1,400 residences, mostly single-family homes, were to be constructed on the site. ‘At this point we’re evaluating options other than housing,’ said Stephane Wandel, with Boeing Realty.”
“Long Beach City Manager Pat West favors eliminating the housing component, which has been a controversial aspect from the proposal’s inception. ‘We’re excited,’ West said. ‘Houses are great, but right now we’re really trying to stem the tide of the loss of manufacturing jobs and facilitate the creation of white-collar jobs.’”
“‘It makes sense,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.’I think people are looking at the realities of the housing industry and how soon will it come back. The market has been screaming ‘Do industrial space,’ but nobody has been listening because it was more financially rewarding to do housing - until now.’”
The Orange County Register. “California real estate licenses dropped last month from the year before for the first time since March 1999, ending a 7 ½ upswing in which licensees increased by 81 percent.”
“The California Department of Real Estate reported that the state had 548,959 licensees last month. That’s still the third highest number on record, and it’s equal to one licensee for every 22 California households or one for every 1.4 homes sold last year.”
“That’s down 0.1% from the number of licensees in December 2006. Local real estate executives say agents and mortgage brokers have left the business in droves, or taken other jobs to make ends meet as the number of sales fell to their lowest level in at least two decades. The count of licensees is slow to drop since they’re good for four years before requiring renewal.”
“‘When you have an up market and people perceive it’s easy to make money in real estate, all these newbies come in,’ said Phil Schaefer, past president of the Pacific West Association of Realtors. ‘A lot of these people that get in thinking it’s quick and easy find out it’s not quick and easy.’”
“Just 2,463 license tests were administered in December, the lowest number since November 2000, DRE statistics show. Exams have dropped steadily from nearly 16,000 administered in September, the last month before new regulations kicked in requiring that applicants take two additional real estate courses to qualify for taking the test.”
“‘It’s going through the floor,’ DRE spokesman Tom Pool said of license exams.”
“Pool noted that a dramatic upswing in the number of licenses issued began in the spring of 2001, following the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the lowering of mortgage interest rates.”
“Pool speculated that many got real estate licenses and went to work as loan officers and mortgage brokers. ‘It paints an interesting picture,’ Pool said. ‘One boom stopped and it kind of transitioned into another.’”
From The Sun. “New housing, an important step toward downtown revitalization, must be reinforced by city services and good planning to be successful. It’s great to see a housing project like the new Meadowbrook Park Lofts in downtown San Bernardino.”
“Unfortunately, downtown San Bernardino is anything but trendy. But you have to start somewhere. The lofts are not cheap at $350,000 to $360,000, but ANR Homes and the city have partnered to offer a $100,000 down-payment assistance program for buyers who already live or work in San Bernardino.”
“Security from crime will be an issue. The Meadowbrook Park Lofts project draws its idyllic-sounding name from the park across the street, but unfortunately that park harbors homeless people and druggies after dark. If the unsold lofts suffer break-ins and defacing, they will be that much harder to move in a worsening economy and a deflated housing market.”
“How about a special incentive program for police officers to buy and live there? That could help keep the new project secure.”
“The Fed slashed rates for the second time in eight days on Wednesday. Throughout the Inland Empire and the United States, asking prices on homes continue to fall. Foreclosures across the nation are at a record pace, driving home prices even lower.”
“Activity in the housing market has perked up in recent months, as prices have dropped precipitously and rates have remained low, said Brian Weide, a broker with Sunstar Mortgage Services in Ontario.”
“‘Sales prices are low compared to three years ago, and sellers are willing to give away the farm in terms of picking up closing costs and lowering prices. Buyers are starting to think they don’t want to miss opportunities,’ he said.”
“Economist Jack Kyser…said he uses a measurement called the ‘unsold inventory index’ to gauge housing market strength. He said single-family homes in the region were staying on the market an average of 14.5 months, up from 5.9 months in December 2006.”
“‘Buyers should be very cautious,’ he said.”
The Daily Press. “The High Desert housing market is certainly not on the rise, but it may be leveling off. That was the message Robert Kleinhenz, Deputy Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, brought to an audience of nearly 400.”
“While his research shows that sales on houses will continue to decrease, it will be at a much slower pace than the drop that occurred in 2007. ‘Median home prices are down slightly,’ he said. ‘Mortgage rates are very favorable. The problem is not going to be mortgage rates in 2008. The trick is going to be getting the loan funded.’”
“Still, with the population of the Inland Empire is set to overtake Orange County by 2020 and median home prices are lower in the High Desert than just about anywhere else. So Kleinhenz recommends purchasing property here if investors can hold onto their purchase for some time.”
“‘You can’t lose if you buy here,’ he said.”
‘When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive,’ he said.”
– may I be the first to say, WTF???
ah. I interpreted this to mean, renting OUT a new house. without that, yeah, being the renter makes total sense. being the landlord, stupid.
“Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the ‘market will come back.’ ‘When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive,’ he said.”
market will come back ? Not until rent = mortgage - deduction.
But I suppose alot of these renters will get a rude surprise when the house is foreclosed and they have 3 days to vacate.
“market will come back ? Not until rent = mortgage - deduction.”
Even pre-boom, this has never been the case in most areas - certainly not anywhere near a coast. Maybe if we end up in a full-blown depression, but I think that is a long shot.
People will always pay a premium to be building equity vs. paying someone else’s mortgage but yeah, current prices are certainly out of whack if buying is 2-3x the cost of renting.
True. I think you need to back out the principal payment portion, but for the most part, this is very little for the first 5 years, and back out the value associated with the hedge against rent inflation (i.e., assuming you get a fixed mortgage, your nut cant go up (except for tax increases) although rent can go up). Perhaps the expected interest and tax portion, plus maintenance and HOA fees, for the expected period needs to equal the expected rent for the expected period. If you will be in for less than 10 years, transaction costs of selling a home such as realtor fees need to also be considered. Also you might want to factor in an assumed appreciation/depreciation rate. Its all very complicted, or you could just go back to the historic norm for the multiplier correlating rent payments v. sales prices and cut through the complications. Anyone know what that multiplier is?
in the less desirable areas it used to be 100-120 x monthly rents….in coastal comm they used to use a 160x grm gross monthly rent….however now ?
Are we assuming that owning a house in our name has no intrinsic value? There is no magic formula to determine when renting is better than owning. Perhaps we have all been brainwashed into believing that owning a house is better, but people do assign some value into owning a house.
I disagree. When I moved to Portland in 1994, we rented a 3/2 1200 SF house for $850; the landlord wanted to sell and move to a lower bracket (less turnover). He offered the place to us at $105K; it only appraised at $102.5 K.
Those same appraisers would probably have appraised it in 2005 at over 300k with a rental rate of $1,200. I am not sure what the historical multiplier is but assuming you are in a period in which you expect your local economy to do well over the next decade, I would be willing to pay slightly higher than the current rental rate to lock in fixed debt service payments v. the variable rental rate, and all things being equal, I would prefer to own my own home. I do remember looking at my first house and I was not scared to buy because I was paying only $100 more than rent so said what the hell. On my second house, I was looking at $500 more and it took me 5 days to sleep well after I signed the contract. When I moved to Denver, the difference was over $1800 a month, and so I rent. This is all assuming about 10% down.
Julia says: “Even pre-boom, this has never been the case in most areas - certainly not anywhere near a coast.” Since the 1950’s my family has been buying and renting homes in the San Francisco Bay Area and it was only in the late 90’s (pre dot com boom) when the rent for a home did not cover the cost of the mortgage and taxes.
I’m not saying that a fool can’t be found, but even in the late 90’s, I was renting a 1 BR house in Santa Monica for $650. I seriously doubt that the house was worth less than $150K - even back then.
Anyone can cover their costs if they hold onto it long enough, which is why the morons in my neighborhood that are trying to rent their 4BR houses for $9K a month are sitting indefinitely.
People like jjinia really need to wake up from 2005 mentality.
Why you think rent is half of the payment? Does the fact that housing prices rise 100% in this boom in much of the states while rent has remained high works out the math?
Or how you think the math works out? If people indeed were paying the same rent ratio, then rent must have increased 100%, to make things normal as you claim.
“People will always pay a premium to be building equity vs. paying someone else’s mortgage but yeah, current prices are certainly out of whack if buying is 2-3x the cost of renting.”
In NW Pennsylvania, renting is 2-3x the cost of buying. Why anyone says I should rent is beyond me. I am seeing $25k houses with wishing rents of around $500 a month, its nuts! Even the $12k tiny house, he wants $350 if you rent instead of buy.
Thats because most of that area has been in a recession for a long, long time and many dont have decent credit. Now for the rest of the Nation’s turn.
What the hell is a $12K house made of? Straw?
jjinla wrote…”People will always pay a premium to be building equity vs. paying someone else’s mortgage…”
I disagree. It used to be that you paid the premium for renting, because it provided flexibility and a maintenance-free lifestyle. Boy, have times changed.
All around the Pittsburgh metro area there are all kinds of houses to be had for extremely low prices. Some of them are older homes with a lot of thick beams and custom built ins. All of them have major issues with the neighborhood and usually with care of the property as well. Homes being available below replacement cost is a bad sign.
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO TELL YOU THAT IS ILLEGAL IN AMERICA……..UNLESS THE RENTER LOSES IN COURT
The renter has to be served eviction papers first..usually as a John and Jane Doe…..and has a right to defend themselves IN COURT, and to negotiate with the bank and judge about their security deposit and if they can stay and pay rent.
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But I suppose alot of these renters will get a rude surprise when the house is foreclosed and they have 3 days to vacate.
But, but, but, they’re throwing their money away on rent.
In the case where their rent is equal to a mortgage, they are - which is why I said it’s never going to happen.
In normal times/normal markets, there is nothing wrong with owning a house - in fact, in some case that is the only way that some families will ever save any money. It’s when ROI got out of whack that it all went downhill. I for one don’t aspire to be a lifelong renter.
my sentiments exactly!!! this BS takes the cake!!!
‘Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.’
I doubt this. Where are they getting the financing? Maybe it’s more knife catching - good.
‘Houses are great, but right now we’re really trying to stem the tide of the loss of manufacturing jobs and facilitate the creation of white-collar jobs.’
‘It makes sense,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.’I think people are looking at the realities of the housing industry and how soon will it come back. The market has been screaming ‘Do industrial space,’ but nobody has been listening because it was more financially rewarding to do housing - until now’
Well, this is a big turnabout. Houses have never produced jobs, in and of themselves. And guess what Kyser, chasing the housing bubble set the state back economically. Maybe for years, because of this poor focus on fundamentals.
Same thing’s happened here in Arizona.
“Long Beach City Manager Pat West favors eliminating the housing component, which has been a controversial aspect from the proposal’s inception. ‘We’re excited,’ West said. ‘Houses are great, but right now we’re really trying to stem the tide of the loss of manufacturing jobs and facilitate the creation of white-collar jobs.’”
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The idea that ANY company will build another factory or business office in California is just wishful thinking. CA has gone full-bore socialist, with a fresh tax on business or income earners to fund every scheme they can think up, and they’re STILL $14 Billion in the hole. A business would have to be INSANE to purposefully put down roots in that environment. Intel said years ago that they were DONE expanding in California, and they built another $3 billion fab in Arizona to prove it.
This guy’s dreaming if he thinks not building houses will lead to more jobs. In reality, that site will sit unused and rotting probably forever.
Slim - in response to your comment - as long as California is California, Arizona will benefit from the people and businesses trying to escape. It will still get ugly here, but NOTHING like it will get there.
Arizona certainly does benefit from its proximity to CA. We’ve had CA-based businesses moving here for years.
As with most things, the answer is: It depends. Some businesses really like the fact that AZ is dead last on education spending per capita. Others have a different conclusion, and so relocate to a state with a different educational environment.
Lately, it seems everyone’s moved on from Arizona. Now, it’s Colorado. I wonder which state will be next.
Colorado is very 1980s. Montana is the new Colorado. Wyoming is the new Montana.
Also alberque new mexico
Slim: In ‘92 my brother’s company (AirResearch) moved to Tucson. Bro bought a 3000 sq ft hse just below the Sangre de Cristos for approx $350K (after selling CA house for $250K…..which had been purchased for $52K).
His place Zillows now for $850K……and he’s certain he’ll sell any minute now for that…. My lips are zipped. My question would be how long something like that would remain on the market down there…… I submit it’s gonna surprise them, given their housing history. I should have problems like that!
The Sangre de Cristos mountain range basically ends at a point just Southeast of Santa Fe, New Mexico…..
There’s nothing like being in the middle of the California MARKET. Seventh-largest economy in the world. That’s why certain businesses will continue to locate IN California.
Let’s analyze. You could pick out subsets of markets all over the U.S./world and call them 3rd largest market, 6th largest market, or whatever. The seventh-largest market thing is pretty meaningless, something for Californians to cling to. Do you think Eureka and Redding are part of the same “market” as Los Angeles?
The “SE U.S.” or “Atlantic Seaboard” or even “Great Lakes” is a bigger market than California, and they’re tied together by better rails, roads, ports, and laws, in similar distances. Let’s lose the 7th largest market thing already.
RE: Long beach boeing site,
Quotes:
“As it was approved, it’s estimated the project would generate 11,000 new jobs for the area….I think it’s terrific,” said Robert Swayze, the city’s director of economic development…I think it could create 10,000 jobs for Long Beach. It’s a great new asset to recruit companies.
‘She added.. I think what we need in Long Beach are jobs. The property replaces one of the largest employers we’ve had in the history of Long Beach.”
Comments:
I think these folks are overly optimistic. We are on the verge of a bad recession and everywhere commercial/ industrail bldgs are in oversupply . They should have put industrail 10 years ago at former site of LB naval hospital but instead put in another large shopping mall, which LB has an oversupply of. Now they propose belated industrial development at outset of bad recession.
BTW it is not A bad location and the surrounding area still somewhat respecful on the lakewood side, thought not like it was in 70’s-80’s. Bad timing for putting up any developments now but 3-5 yrs down the road might be worthwhile. I do approve the decision to eliminate housing and put in commercial/ light industrail/some retail and especially parks and trails as LB badly needs a good large modern corporate industrial park, preferably with plenty of hi-tech .
Just to compare LB proposed site with other established industrail parks: Irvine/lake forest has a really large modern industrial/commercial corridor , and Torrance/Carson a fair-sized one. Others with decent Corp parks are Newport beach, Costa mesa ,Garden grove, SF springs, Valencia, 1000 oaks & lake forest. These are just a short list of modern well -kept corp parks in decent areas of LA & OC.
“Unfortunately, downtown San Bernardino is anything but trendy”
It is not trendy, it is a crime-infested ghettoized black hole, the center of the Universe for IE Criminal activity and welfare handouts. I once went into SB city hall & civic center and all i saw were poor beragged locals there and everywhere.
SBerdoo inner metro has more gang murders per capital than SCentral LA .
We are short of homes here, houses are through the roof, $420,000 is the median for a home in Brisbane, Australia.
REALLY…hmm…I am assuming that they have private money…because lenders look at investors in housing like they are in incurable disease!
Posters here have private equity funding is still alive due to the persusave charms of promoters.
Probably true and will get truer as those with more money than sense search for yields in this declining interest rate enviornment, IMHO.
have private = have said private
what did the rest of it mean?
I don’t believe it. I read The Deal magazine. The cover says: Anatomy of a Cycle: How big was it? How different was it? Why did it go wrong?
Note the past tense.
My BIL does private financing and VC stuff. They have a couple deals going, but his take is that folks are VERY conservative at the moment. Of course, some time with 1.25% lower interest rates ought to cure that… along with the human tendancy to suppress bad memories.
Could it be a bunch of dumbass doctors with wads of cash that don’t care if they lose money in the short term (in this case, probably the next 7 years)?
I didn’t believe one word of that either. Anyone thinking the market is going to come back is simply retarded and blissfully ignorant. Will it ” come back”? No, and that is almost never the case. A depreciating cycle followed by a period of flat to slow depreciating always accompanies a bust.
The housing market did an awful lot of damage to this state. Many people including myself have given a serious look to other states for none other than the cost of living here. The boom also helped countless businesses in California move out of state even quicker. At the same time, I’ve seen the total transformation of other states that previously had less healthy economies benefit from CA’s price escalation. This places California is a precarious situation where not only will they have to now compete to keep businesses and citizens within the state, but it will also have to compete with the growing threat of other state economies whom now have many former CA companies in them.
California is like the US in it’s current state. Bloated and increasingly less productive. Other areas that are seeing a renaissance, such as the Southeast are like the countries of China and India, growing rapidly, knocking on the door and quietly becoming powers of their own.
If the boom “comes back”:, I’ll happily be one of those CA ex-pats doing business elsewhere.
Talk to any “moving company” and they will tell you what’s happening. Cashed out of my California house in summer of 2005. Even then, talking with the moving company when getting extra boxes for the move told me, “you can’t believe the number of people moving out of the state” he said. God only knows what he would say today!
“you can’t believe the number of people moving out of the state”” I guess that increased gridlock on the 405 at the 10 at rush hour is from visitors to LA. I have never seen traffic so bad. Where do all those people live>
It’s bad in the Bay Area too. There’s something of an understated tech boom going on. The traffic has definitely increased. This week has been horrible with all the rain because Californians seem to be unable to drive in the rain and subsequently, every day this week there has been some sort of accident. The best one was a gasoline tanker truck that shut down 101 for almost a day. Nightmarish!
Just because people are moving out doesn’t mean new people are moving in. The newcomers, however, are not arriving from the other 49 states.
The question too is, even if the state has a net gain in population, I’d like to know what the per capita income is.
It is people living in their cars…
(that was bad- my wife thinks I am so negative)
Jetson, I live in San Jose and have been experiencing quite the opposite of you. Traffic has been so light recently that I have questioned whether school is out on vacation. Maybe everyone moved up the bay?
Most of the population gain is people already living in CA having children, not true migration into the state. Most of the people having large families are at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Not a good long-term sign for overpriced housing.
Most of the people having large families are at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Not a good long-term sign for overpriced housing.
Sure it is. Here in Hawaii that is the norm — enormous single family homes with 20 members of the extended family living in them. Benefits everyone — house prices continue rising, poor people can afford houses.
We live 30 miles from the nearest set of traffic lights, and forget what gridlock was, except for the times I wake up from a nightmare, in a cold sweat, thinking i’m back in the city of angles…
“you can’t believe the number of people moving out of the state”” I guess that increased gridlock on the 405 at the 10 at rush hour is from visitors to LA. I have never seen traffic so bad. Where do all those people live>”
It’s the natural narrowing of the topography. Look on a map of LA where the coast bends west at santa monica/ malibu, creating a narrow restriction for traffic with only the 405 fwy as the single main artery going from west la/ south bay to SFV. This create a bottleneck effect as u go thru sepulveda pass and come down to the 101 which is another east/ west bottleneck from burbank/ pasadena to Agoura hills. No way around these bottle necks unless u use the old sepulveda road or one of the east/ west side valley sideroads such as Ventura or burbank blvd. This area is one of most densely populated coastal areas in CA, maybe the entire west coast.
BTW the LA basin’s seeming overcrowdedness is due almost 100% to natural increases in birthrate’s and the tendency of the ‘guest workers’ to proliferate like rabbits. Who’s leaving Scal/LA/Ca are the bright educated middle- class native born productive citizens, being replaced by poor unskilled immigrants who soak up resources and state freebies without adding nothing to the state or LA. Go thru large parts of Scentral, east LA ,la puente, east SFV, Wilmington, Compton and U will see that these areas are as bad and decayed as Detroit. Almost 100% ghettos occupied by 100 % undocumented or recent green carders .
Speaking of moving companies, I have noticed that it costs WAY MORE to move out of California than move in. One place quoted me at around $5,000 one way. At that cost, it would be cheaper to do one of two things:Sell most of our crap, of which most was either found on the street or kind of junky anyway since we figured since we rent- we might as well not buy nice furniture, or buy a used enclosed trailer and haul it behind my truck.
We have three vehicles altogether. These will cost $1,000 each to move. So we might sell one of them. They’re all old commuter beater cars with over 200,000 miles each, so they’re hardly worth moving anyway. It will be painful regardless.
We rented two 26 ft Penskes! Best rate at the time. Also had three vehicles and three drivers, mulitple trips.
A few of my friends rent in a nearby state, and received a cheaper rate.
I vote for getting rid of as much “stuff” as you can.
Best,
Leigh
P.S we moved two households
ABF Trucking had by far the best gig for residential moves. Load your own trailer and they deliver it in a few days to your new state. Rates better than uhaul and you dont buy fuel.
Besides the rates, make sure your rentals are safe! U-Haul got busted for renting out poorly serviced vehicles. Not good when you’re driving over the mountains.
Jetson Boy:
CRAIGSLIST…give the stuff away FREE it will be gone in hours..Then have some stuff for sale…
Make sure YOU TURN IN THE PLATES IN PERSON To the DMV and get a receipt….Dont trust the mail or the “buyer” to do this before you leave….I have been on legal blogs and 2 years later YOU will get sued for some accident because you still own that 200,000 mile beater according to Californication DMV!
so, Unless you own Broyhill Ethan Allan or custom made furniture, or its literally Brand New, nothing is really worth transporting cross country.
You’re funny! I actually a house full of Ethan Allen furniture. It looked like a ball-peen hammer had been taken to it after several weeks in the care of a well-known, long-distance mover. I wish I had just sold it and bought new once we got here to Colorado. It’s been a nightmare getting compensation for the damage. Never again!
Hey, people pay good money for distressed stuff, like jeans and now guitars. There’s a new Fender you can buy these days, for only $15,000!, that has been beaten up so that you, too, can look like a rock star. That’s so retarded.
“Anyone thinking the market is going to come back is simply retarded and blissfully ignorant.”
The short bus is the official vehicle of the National Association of Realtors.
I didn’t believe one word of that either. Anyone thinking the market is going to come back is simply retarded and blissfully ignorant.
I recall reading in an old Murphy’s Law book I used to have: “Don’t believe in miracles, rely on them”
I believe California is kind of a microcosm (albeit a macro microcosm) of what’s been happening on a national scale — the offshoring of jobs in light of anti-competitive business environments.
‘Houses are great, but right now we’re really trying to stem the tide of the loss of manufacturing jobs and facilitate the creation of white-collar jobs.’
I think most of the recent white collar jobs in CA are or were Mortgage related. High cost of homes makes it hard to recruit talent so many companies expand to other states… or countries.
A big spec-uvestor in Sacramento bought the last 15 houses from JTS Communities, a local builder. He paid an average of $480,000 per house in September 2007. He is asking $300-400 per month above market rent, so his tenants keep moving out. The tenants he does get have BK’s and recent evictions, not to mention the ones under house arrest with ankle bracelets!!
The $7,200,000 in houses is now worth less than $5,500,000 given the prices the lenders are selling the 25 FORECLOSURES in the same neighborhood. He is losing $20,000/mon in cash flow and $340,000 a month in value during the last 5 months.
Good thing he is in the used car business in Sacramento….oh wait, that is not working out so well either. He is toast, but does not know even know it yet. He just listed one of the vacant houses for sale at $460,000 ($20,000 more than he paid!). The same model house on a better lot is selling at $350,000. He did not catch a knife, he stuck his neck in a guillotine…..
From the original post:
“Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.”
I’m not seeing the “buying blocks of homes” phenom here in Tucson, but I am still seeing the investors buying, then renting temporarily before that fabled turnaround. Unfortunately, that turnaround isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
In the meantime, they have tenants, and all the joys that come with them. Not to mention the properties, which need maintenance and repair.
Those investors are going to be in a sorry state when they realize the turnaround will take years. How long would you expect them to take a loss for?
Re; “‘Mainly, it’s to help pay the mortgage,’ he said. ‘They don’t want to sell right now, and they can’t afford to hold onto the property.’”
How much sense does this make?
Aw, HellBoy, that’s Bubble Logic [TM].
So don’t hold on the property. Chuck the keys to the bank.
I noticed that quote as well. Of the idiotic statements I’ve read on housing in the past couple of years that one definitely makes the top 10.
let’s see here. do i jump into the pit with 10 alligators or do I jump into the pit with 5 alligators. DUHHHHHH!!
Oooookaaaay. So, you can’t afford to hold onto the house because your mortgage is a zillion dollars, BUT you’d like to rent it out because you’re “not ready to let go”. So, the renters maybe paying a portion of your mortgage, but YOU have to find another place to live…..so…
I give. How does this help these idiots out? They certainly are not the brightest bulbs in the chandelier. Twenty-five watters in a 100 watt world, clearly.
Yep. My friend is in exactly this position. He owns two houses, one of which he occupies, and the other he rents out. The rent isn’t covering his mortgage, but he keeps hanging on. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why he doesn’t just mail in the keys. After all, he already “owns” another house, so a hit to his credit probably wouldn’t have a terrible effect on his life. Why in the world would he hang onto the rental house? His two closest comps are a full 15% lower than what he financed at 100% in 2005. I guess hope dies eternal.
oh, that was a good one! comparing wattage to stupidity
“‘You can’t lose if you buy here,’ he said.”
Wow. That’s such a bald-faced lie it takes your breath away.
“‘You can’t lose if you buy here,’ he said.”
Yea, I wonder if he would mind signing a guarantee just in case!
Oh yeah… Why don’t you buy it then?
That’s the thing that is so stupid about the RE establishment.. If this house is such a “steal” and is “definitely going up double digits over the next few years” why in the heck are you showing it to me? If it’s a sure thing, but it yourself and make a few 100K on the appreciation.
It’s amazing that people can see through this obvious deception. But, apparently, it does seem to work more often then not, so they keep spewing it.
“It’s amazing that people can see through this obvious deception.”
It’s sort of like the suicide bombers in Iraq, you don’t see their leaders leading by example. Somewhere there just must be a common sense gene that through some Darwinian mutation is not being transferred to a large segment of the world’s populace.
As much as I hate RE people, it’s hard for me to compare suicide bombers to them.
Also, suicide bombers believe they are doing the right thing. I can’t say the same for most RE people.
I thought for sure the IE flaming would have already commenced.
you mean the arson rate? I’ll bet they can burn stucco if they try
Is this what the mortage companys call “burn rate”?
i.e.d.’s have been going off, for an awful long time now in the i.e.
Inland Empire Defaults
The only close the Empire has, is foreclosures…
The Emperor is on vacation in the high Sierras.
“Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the ‘market will come back.’ ‘When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive,’ he said.”
Yes - it is very attractive subsidizing SOMEONE else’s housing costs to the tune of $24,000 per year…
hard to understand the mechanism for prices going up when it makes no sense to buy what you can rent for half price.
It’s a non-sequitur, i.e. “a statement that does not follow logically from or is not clearly related to anything previously said.”
It is mind-boggling that people even talk like this. If you didn’t KNOW you could rent a $4000-a-month-mortgage house for $2000/month you might be excused for thinking the market could come back. Otherwise, you would somehow need to think that rents are going to appreciate at double-digit rates above inflation for the next (approximately) seven years. But if you thought this, a better strategy would be sign or take options on long-term leases that you could then re-assign in the future.
I honestly never knew the housing market could be so irrational and inefficient. I can understand the bubble psychology, but the behavior following the popping of the bubble is really odd. I think there is a social element involved in which getting foreclosed on or going bankrupt is considered less of a failure than taking a loss. This is going to be death by 1000 (price) cuts.
Paul,
Well said across the board. Firstly (I’m hardly in the market for Investment properties) but if I were I would be doing exactly as you describe. And yes, in the mind of the avg. SDCIA poster I’m sure it WOULD be infinitely preferable to be foreclosed than to “take a loss”. Nicely done Sir.
“Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the ‘market will come back.’
That is the mindset of a lot of uninformed people. They believe housing hasn’t fallen that much and values will come back to peak values in a year or two. That’s not what’s happening nor going to happen. Recovery to peak values could take 20 years or more in some places. Using their strategy while waiting for a recovery is a financial death sentence. These people are still getting a lot of bad advice from those in the industry, those that say housing will begin to recover by the end of this year, for example.
Market Cargo Cultists…
“Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.”
all of them knife catchers!!!!
Consider the source of this quote: a Brentwood real estate agent. If a single investor bought four units, Chatham would (I am sure) consist that a sufficient basis for this inane statement.
“‘Those are two beautiful golf courses; we love to play them,’ he said. ‘That’s one of the reasons we decided to purchase a second home up there.’”
Yeah right, what bullsh*t! How many homes to you have to own to play the course? Flopper alert!
And just to add, this is one of those guys who makes sure he points out each home to his playing partners as they are rounding the course so that each one knows what a bigshot he is. Off to BK court with this asshat.
Have a friend who used to have a pet-sitting business. One of her clients had what you could call a ringside seat at a Tucson golf community called Starr Pass. Golf balls sailing through the air, then the windows, were a common problem.
People that buy houses on Golf courses confuse me: Is golf really THAT great? I think I’d rather play putt-putt.
Golf had it’s day, but it’s a water sucking waste now, and can’t really be justified anymore.
Go take a hike, instead.
Please keep that sentiment to yourself. As a hiker and non-golfer, I’m very thankful that there are tens of thousands of people in the LA basin that spend their weekend days playing golf and watching football. If people started to hike and mucked up the trails like they do the surf breaks, I’d have to leave LA.
And golf balls hit home owners in the head, crash through house windows, break car windows, and do all kinds of damage. Living on a golf course is like living in the path of a never-ending meteorite shower.
Best part of Schizopolis, really, is that it showed what golf course life could be like.
Golf is that great.
(Been playing for 50 years; 8 handicap)
Golf is like life: You hit a drive 250yds down the middle of the fairway and then shank the approach.
I have not had an 8 handicap since 1991. Now I feel lucky to get on the green in par. Anybody can hit the ball like Mr. Tiger Woods, all you have to do is have his talent; but hitting the golfball the way I do is irreproducible.
Living by the golf course, you can spend all your time mastering your putz …. er putts.
I think that the allure of golf course houses is that you have unobstructed views of a well manicured park. Of course it has its downsides.
Yeah, that’s exactly right. My dad lives on one in Vegas and has a view all the way to the mountains. He’s only lost 1 window so far…
I like to golf. If you don’t, hey, that’s ok too.
I think golf courses are like anything else — low, medium, or high-end. Kinda like saying you have a car. Well, do you have a Dodge Neon or a BMW Z8? So, IMHO, to have a house on a golf course would all depend on the golf course.
There is something wrong with this. “Modesto” in the same sentence with “Resort”.
It’s only close in the sentence. Diablo Grande is a developers wetdream located some 40 miles west of Modesto.
In the late 60’s/ early 70’s Boise Cascade Corp. developed the same kind of ‘luxury home/golf course’ development 30 miles east of Modesto in the Sierra foothils. It has gone BK more times than you can count, and has yet to fill the lots. Another boom, another bust to be.
Well, the “resort” is “modest” because it has a lot to be modest about!
It’s an older person gig. Out here in desert, lots of them buy houses in gated communities (age restricted) on golf courses. At my Aunt’s those old folks are out there all hours of day - they are really into their golf. She’s been in her place over 10 years and never a ball even near her house. I guess it depends on how they are built and how old the community is. The older ones didn’t seem to place the houses so close to the course.
“California real estate licenses dropped last month from the year before for the first time since March 1999, ending a 7 ½ upswing in which licensees increased by 81 percent.”
Even cockroaches have to face breeding limits.
i saw a story on nbc nightly news the other day about realtors
looking for new jobs. they showed this one woman who turned
her real estate office into a florist (can’t go wrong with a florist shop) well anyway she was using her old open house signs with her ugly mug on them as scrap for displays
Could someone tell me why real estate agents plaster their pictures all over everything?
because they are so smart and good looking
they are like headshots for actors
Branding. If you see Cookie Wong’s mug everywhere, you might remember her when you need a realtor.
Of course it loses its effectiveness when there are hundreds of other realtors in a small area doing the same thing. If there were 200 brands of Cola, would we remember any of them?
One of the realtors in my ‘hood seriously looks like she used to be a guy, and/or had some extreme plastic surgery. (maybe she’s 80, trying to pass for 40) The photo he/she plasters on his/her freebie notepads is so ugly we immediately toss them in the recycle bin. Branding gone wild.
So they can tell which listings are theirs? So they can find their cars? OK, I give up?
“can’t go wrong with a florist shop”
‘Cause when you’re blue and your wallet is taking a hit AND you’re about to lose your house, buying flowers is just oh-so-helpful!
Al
Even cockroaches have to face breeding limits.
Thats funny
Further evidence that reality sucks…that’s why California is in the trouble it’s in….nobody really wants to deal with reality here. Especially the reality that houses can’t be 5 times or more the median income of an area and actually be sustainable…..not enough new buyers to be able to support the prices.
Google and the other techs won’t be able to support this forever…Google is on it’s way down and I don’t think it will stop until the stock is in the $100’s per share not the current value which is down significantly from it peak right now.
Looking at the ads on Google I would have to say they were making a lot of money on Real Estate and it’s related cousins… I can see where the loss of this market is going to be huge, and not just for Google!
thx for that thought, will see if there are cheap long-term puts
I find the p/e compelling
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JOE
Wow — that p/e is right up in the Googlesphere. Must be a growth company to have that high of a p/e…
Seems their earnings are falling even faster that the price. Now that’s a tough combo!
I made some dough shorting WCI …
Game, Set and Match.
Goodbye, economy.
“Fernandes said a lot of owners believe the ‘market will come back.’ ‘When people are paying $4,000 a month and being foreclosed on, renting a new house for $2,000 is very attractive,’ he said.”
“Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.”
Wow — it looks like the Fed’s efforts to respike the housing investment punchbowl are temporarily succeeding! But wait — what about that tsunami wave of foreclosures approaching the flood-level depth of current vacant home inventory? Looks like a perfect storm is going to turn these come-early infesters into the next generation of falling knife catchers.
Interestingly, we will see a foreclosure echo, as the knife-catchers move into foreclosure in two to three years time. In economic terms the real estate bubble has sent considerable imbalance into the economic system and we will see all manner of unpredictable things happening in the near future as the shock waves emanate outward into other areas of the economy.
“That’s still the third highest number on record, and it’s equal to one licensee for every 22 California households or one for every 1.4 homes sold last year.”
Suppose the average sale price last year was $500,000 and the average commission was 6 pct. Then I guess the average Used Home Salesperson (UHS) would have made
1.4 * 6 * 500,000 / 100 = $42,000?
Those figures are deliberately conservative to make the point that it looks pretty grim for below-average UHS’s (coffee is for closers, etc).
I think that they have to split that 50/50 with the listing agent, and then split THAT with broker they work for, so it’s about $10K.
I said I was being very conservative with my assumptions, which works in favor of overstating the average UHS annual income.
I’m not sure the listing agent/buyers agent split matters in the average, since they’re both in the same pool of UHS agents, i.e. the split comes out of one agent’s pocket and goes in another’s. The brokers share, and any additional expenses, do matter though.
Why does the broker’s share matter? Is the broker not also a holder of a real-estate license? Or are you saying the broker’s share covers a bunch of overhead? (Sorry, I am ignorant of these matters.)
The broker keeps the other real estate hos from invading their turf, and makes sure the buyers always wear protection.
nope
they get 1/4 of the 6%
unless w major luck the end up the selling agent
this will drop big time along w the .5% most brokers get
all will be ordered from a clown’s head like fast food
“How about a special incentive program for police officers to buy and live there? That could help keep the new project secure.”
WTF? Don’t cops want to live in a safe place with their families? This guy thinks they want to hang out in some soon-to-be ghetto to protect his investment?
Hey, I’ve got an idea! How about building your POS project in an area where folks want to live?
Cops like nothing better than catching criminals on their days off? LOL.
Looks like a losing proposition for the cop……even when he is off duty, his neighbors will have him working. Not to mention the P.O.’d neighbors if something bad happens…..”Why weren’t you paying attention to what’s going on in the neighborhood?”
Frankly, if I was a cop, they couldn’t GIVE me a place in a high crime area, for the reasons above.
Not to mention the chance that the homey that you put in jail 3 years ago and is now out (due to CA bubble-related bubble constraints), sees you and decides to bust a cap.
And…….”He knows where you live….”
Cop to Judge “I wuz just cleaning my gun, when it went off…….seventeen times!”
Gotta love those Glocks!
Yeah, he’s not selling $350K places, with $100K downpayments from the government. He’s selling $250K places (probably not worth even that), with a $100K gift from the government.
I knew a situation in Cleveland where the metro housing authority would rent apartments to cops for $1 a month. A terrific deal for a young cop getting a career started. Buying anything in that neighborhood would have been foolish, though.
anyone have a chart of historical residential rent/price
we know it reached over 200 in lots of markets and the norm is 110 to 120
wonder how low it got in the depression ?
The best I can do is google:
“FRBSF report 2004 house”
The chart therein goes back only a couple of decades, and does not provide an ABSOLUTE price/rent ratio, but the report does contain some scholarly references (Shiller, etc) that could be looked up. Let us know if you do that.
Don’t have a chart, but I know in our neighborhood (studio city 91604) it’s 500 (conservative). That ratio is widening, however, as rents are finally decreasing around here as the median price continues to rise.
forgive if this posts twice (I waited 20 min and opened a new window) –
Google “FRBSF report 2004 house”
You will see a chart going back a few decades.
You will also see some scholarly references at the bottom (Shiller etc), which may contain more of what you want.
Wow, take a look at figure 2. LA is toast.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/real_estate/home_prices.fortune/
That one has a chart in the middle….
tx , that scares the sht out of me
second image
John Safa, who owns a car dealership, had his Lincolnwood, Ill., home on the market six months without an offer. He’ll rent it out until the market rebounds.
hahaha
another accidental landlord who doesn’t know what it’s like to have tenants. Property management firms are going to do well the next few years.
And check out that picture of homes in Hesperia. It’s like a the Mothership flew by and planted a cubicle farm with steroid-laced seeds. There probably isn’t a tree or an asparagus plant for miles.
I bet they all hung Kinkade painting above the sofa, longing for a “simpler time.” *puke*
Potemkinkade Village, Hellsperia
“The problem is not going to be mortgage rates in 2008. The trick is going to be getting the loan funded.”
Yep. I’d imagine advertized rates could get pretty close to 0% if they don’t actually give you the money….
Around 50 in many places I think. And that’s with low interest rates too.
test post…haven’t been able to post stuff recently…
Hmmm, anyways, check out the LA Times (el-ay times dot com) for a story on the Senate (Chris Dodd) considering an actual, real bailout of homeowners…the article is called “New federal foreclosure agency sought”.
My posts typically take at least 1/2 hour to appear, sometimes up to several hours. This site has attracted so much activity lately that Ben must have needed to throttle back the traffic.
Arroyo, your post passed with flying colors. And welcome back!
Same here - sometimes they show up immediately, other times not at all.
I’m talking 24 hours here…I realize that Ben gets a lot of traffic, and he probably has some auto filters on certain key words and URLs…?
Let me try this…check out today’s LA Times, article “New federal foreclosure agency sought”. Dangerous if they go through with it.
Did anyone else notice that Bush urged passage of the tax rebate while visiting a helicopter factory?
Bush and Ahnold at Robinson Helicopter in Torrence
Were Bennie and the Feds invited for a test flight?
Was there a poster behind him that said “Mission Accomplished”?
Nice small commercial coptor outfit. Does a lot of overseas buisness so a model that the free tradders would like to show off.
Who the heck would buy a discount low cost airplane or helicopter made in China with unskilled labor?
Unskilled jobs are taking a beating but engineering/skilled are not far behind.
Off topic… but CA is as close to AZ as I think we’ll get today….
We have “luxury condos” coming out our arses here in PHX… and STILL!!!
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0201phx-qwest0202.html
“A San Diego-based developer hopes to bring luxury townhouses, condominiums and apartments to North Third Street, near Thomas Road.”
“Developers have been working on the 690-unit project for three years and said central Phoenix needs this type of project.”
like a duck needs a bicyce….
“Units could start at $600,000 and could be as much as $2 million, Pinsonneault said.”
”’There’s such a need. Over 60 or 70 million baby boomers coming on board in the next 16 or 17 years,” Pinsonneault said. ‘They’re going to want a nice lifestyle for their retirement and wanting to be close to all the downtown facilities.’”
It is like it came from the Onion or a HBBer wrote it as a joke!
Yes. Old ppl en masse want to pay city taxes, and put up with city problems, to live within walking distances to bars and nightclubs. It’s all so clear to me know.
Units could start at $600,000 and could be as much as $2 million.
Why not make it $6M and as much as $20M? You will so make more money, and then you will rich, rich, rich!
Between their plastic surgery tune-ups and helping pay for their kidlet’s lifestyles I don’t see how Boomers will be affording 600K retirement pods.
“Sam Gardali, who along with his wife bought a second home in the resort to take advantage of the golf courses, said he wasn’t happy with how the course closures will affect property values at Diablo Grande.”
“‘Those are two beautiful golf courses; we love to play them,’ he said. ‘That’s one of the reasons we decided to purchase a second home up there.’”
Folks… That’s what happens when you decide to live next to the Big Devil!
Opinion piece in today’s San Diego U-T: “We Must Stop Housing Market Deflation” by William H. Gross, founder and chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond mutual fund.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080201/news_lz1e1gross.html
Thoughts, four-letter and otherwise?
I just skimmed the entire article. It’s all about financing.
Nothing to do with affordability. They do not give a shiat if the American consumer is overextended or overleveraged to infinity.
Four letter word(s) of the day: Eat Shiat and Die, Biatch!
Gross is not stupid. He is talking his book.
absolutely and losing his credibility in the process
It is interesting that the securitization and lending structures that he claims are responsible for the decline are the exact same structures that gave rise to the housing bubble in the first place. He is apparently assuming (which he knows is a false assumption) that the appreciation was normal and the 5% decline is the bogeyman in the room. Sickening.
Also he apparently pointed out the most obvious issue. Yes ppl paid too much for things they couldnt afford. Someone has to take a hit. We have to decide whether its the guilty or innocent to hold accountable. His vote is for holding the innocent accountable. What a great human being!
Fact is, there’s no such thing as “housing price deflation.” Inflation, or deflation, is a rise or fall in the GENERAL price level. Housing prices will rise or fall relative to the general price level based on supply and demand of housing. The general price level will rise or fall based on the equation MV=PQ. Neither Bill Gross nor the Fed can change the price of houses relative to other goods. The latter can however, attempt to bail out FBs (debtors) by trying to influence the above equation. Success is likely to be less than hoped, and late in coming.
So i’m reading the print edition of the el lay times business section, and the front page of the business section has a story about Hannah Montana, and buried deep in the 4th page is a tiny story about MBIA losing $2.3 Billion.
I’ve had to read between the lines for so long, now.
How much did Ms. Hannah Montana make? How much did Mr. MBIA lose? The LA Times had it right! Winners first page.
LA is a company town, and the company is not MBIA.
I get the feeling if the world ended, it’d end up in section D, page 14, of the Times.
Howzabout tv viewership being down 21%, as per the Neilsen ratings?
The writers strike accomplished nothing, except enticing another strike in the homes of the hoi polloi, who just needed a reason to quit watching the boob tube, and switch their allegiances to their computers, for good.
Gross sees his portfolio going poof before he can adjust……
A house is, first, shelter. Shelter is a basic need and should be affordable. The idea that the deflation of artificially inflated home prices is “bad” is economic nonsense. We are in this mess because massive amounts of capital were directed into housing, not because of population demand push but because of the pull of the attraction of some possible HUGE “investment” return on shelter.
Prices are collapsing naturally, as with any “investment” that ceases to provide the expected “return”. I own a home and have kids. I hope prices fall all the way back to really affordable levels because I want my kids to be able to spend more of their money on more productive things (as well as save and invest). Gross either understands nothing about the productive deployment of capital or he doesn’t care. Either way, it won’t matter. No one can stop this bubble from busting anymore than anyone’s ever arrested one before.
“‘Unfortunately, these layoffs could have been averted had the city been more fiscally responsible and had the foresight to see the impending downturn and commercial real estate market,’ the Union representatives from Stationary Engineers Local 39 news release stated.”
Those laid off should sue the city for not reading Ben’s blog, the city could have informed themselves and thereby known. Kind of the opposite of the lawsuit against the blogger in Florida.
“‘You can’t lose if you buy here,’ he said.”
A few words that cost a lot of money.
Thought I’d share this e-mail from a local used house salesperson. We stopped by one of their listings once, and you know how that goes…
I’ve been sending you [North County San Diego] area property searches for some time and wanted to make sure that you are finding these helpful? Can I make any adjustments to the criteria?
I also wanted you to know some exciting news that is still in the making!
The government has tabled legislative relief that will increase the amount of a conforming loan from $417,000 to close to $600,000 (in California) the amounts will be determined over the next 2 weeks or so Click here: Conforming Loans . When you combine this with the last two Fed rate cuts this past month a conforming loan will be available for qualified buyers with good debt to value ratios, fully amortized, below 5% within the next 2-4 weeks.
We still have a 6-8 month inventory here in the North County so the selection of homes is good and the prices are still in the buyers favor for now, but with all these incentives the expectation is that buyers will be back and bring the market back into balance over the next 6 months.
If you have some time, this would be a good time to get together and come up with an action plan tailored to your needs.
————————-
They are pushing this (bailout packages) for all it’s worth.
It only gets better at realtor.org…LOL same story lines that have been posted here and the BS never stops
Anyone have any good Tulsa news such as the Jenks/Bixby/Broken Arrow area? Horrible weather but cheaper to raise a family.
Thanks!
“bring the market back into balance” What “balance” might that be, does he mean, the balance in his favor?
Yeah, I thought that was funny.
To me, “balance” means when average homes are affordable to average people, with a 30-yr, fully amortized, FRM.
Prices still need to drop at least 30-50% in much of NCSD before we see any “balance”.
–
“Chatham said that investors are also buying blocks of homes and renting them out temporarily before ‘a turnaround’ and higher property values.”
Suckers still abound. And you need better evidence that housing has barely begun the decline?
Jas
See my post directly above yours for further proof. We’ve only just begun…
Where’s popcorn Neil? I read in WP that CSC is moving from El Segundo to Falls Church, VA. I thought it was him that had hinted that big southbay employer would be moving.
Why don’t American Tradesman come to australia, we don’t have enough homes. We pay through the roof for rent. House price median is $420, 000 and interest rates are almost 8%, and you think you had it bad!!!!